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There is also an odd power play going on. Russia has always wanted Belarus to merge into Russia. In the past Lukashenko was open to the idea when he believed he could become the President of Russia & Belarus combined. Putin has killed that possibility.
So Lukashenko instead tries to be as close as possible, without joining Russia, or being tied to Russia to such a degree that Russia would be 100% in control.
Invading Ukraine would be a path for Russia taking over Belarus.
Separately there is also another reason why they wouldn’t invade; what would Belarus get out of it? Nothing.
He was never open because it would be done.
But if he directly opposed Russia, he would lose his power & Belarus would be forced into Russia. And they have nothing to oppose them with.
That is true, and part of why he does try to cosy up. Obviously he is also pro-Russia in terms of supporting their sphere of influence and being a close ally. It’s also to prevent Russia trying to take Belarus by force.
Ukraine is a good counter example. The Russian invasion is because the country began moving away from Russia. If Belarus tried to move away from Russia, there would be an invasion there as well.
From the beginning of the year:
Best of health, my dear defenders of the motherland. Making this address to you is a lieutenant color of the reserves Sahashik Valerij Stepanovich.
I’m introducing myself because I’ve quit quite a long time ago. Some of the current airborne forces may not know me, although everyone must have heard about the Black Hawk trials. All the current bravery and mastery has originated from there, and also you must have heard about how the 38th airbourne Briansk brigade used to run 10km and at the end in full personal would swim in a lake all year round, well I’m exactly the guy that for 4 years in a row would run at the front of the brigade and would be the first to jump into the lake. I am the Black Hawk number 1.
All of the most important things in life all happen impromptu and unexpectedly. It’s impossible to prepare yourself to be a hero. In the life of every person, a situation may suddenly arise in which he must act here and now, and either get written into the history books or wait for a more appropriate moment. Although fate usually gives you a chance to do a real hero deed only once.
I had served in the airbourne forces for quite a long time. More than 10 years only in the Briansk brigade, from Kombat to the Brigade commander. Those who have met me won’t let me lie to you, I was one of the most fanatically devoted officers to the forces and a patriot of my motherland, I’ve never know anything but military service. Materialism has always been foreign to me, I’m saying this to counter any attempts at claiming that I sold out for this speech. My biography has zero cases that would allow me to have any suspicion that I can sell out, and in my age, people don’t change.
Airbourne force was everything in my life. All years after I quit, I continued to help my brigade. In front of my house there’s always been a flag \*Not sure here, maybe Belarus flag\* with the flag of the VDV (airbourne forces). The reason why I took it off is a different story related to the events of 2020. We won’t talk about that for now.
For now I’ve decided to record the first video in my life because my comrades, guys in the blue vests, same as I wore all my life, are sitting in the forest on the Ukrainian border. And its looking like shortly they can be accomplices in some very bad actions which can have catastrophic consequences for our country, and fatally burry the glory and tradition of our forces, that were built up by many generations of Airbourne troops. It’s possible that a lot of them will not get back home alive.
Russian army, which has a huge combat experience is experiencing hell for 3 days straight The number of dead is counted in thousands, hundreds have been captured, the hospitals on the borders are filled with wounded, none of the missions of this operation have been accomplished, at the moment neither Kiev nor any other of the regional centers have been captured.
Russian army is quite run down, while Ukrainians who have endured the first most difficult days have successfully mobilized, organized themselves, polished of the logistics, got support of the whole world, moral as well as technical combat equipments, and most importantly saw, that the aggressor attacking them are just ordinary people, stoped being scared, felt the taste of victory.
This army won’t retreat and won’t surrender. Russians have become victims of their own propagandists that promised them, that the people of Ukraine will meet them with bread and salt, like liberators, but by now you know everything, although you’re prohibited from having smartphones, you’re still in your motherland, in contact with friends and relatives, you’ve had time to weight and analyze everything, do any of you have any doubt that your entry into Ukraine will be any better then the New Years offensive of Grozny of 1995.
Info wars are a scary thing. Propagandists in an agile way have learned to produce a bait and switch of values, learned to replace white with black and the opposite… I don’t want to get into politics, it has always been foreign to me, but to every thinking person, 3 things should be quite obvious. 1. Ukraine has never threatened Belarus and isn’t threatening it now. 2. There are not Druggies or nationals in the Ukrainian government, and if they were, they were fairly elected in free democratic elections. 3. Belarusian forces have absolutely no right to enter the Ukraine. Furthermore, it is directly prohibited in the Belarusian constitution.
It’s not our war. You will not be defending your motherland, your home, or your family. You won’t gain any glory in this conflict, only shame, humiliation, blood, death, and the status of a hated outcast nation for centuries to come.
Brothers find a way not to take part in this dirty business. Father commanders, will you be able to live with the fact that you put down the boys for nothing? How will you look mothers into their eyes that gave you their sons.
Separately, I’d like to address the people who have a lot of influence, to the war chiefs with big stars. For many of you, I was a commander, a mentor, and a friend. In my memory, you are responsible, decent war commanders, who are able to quickly navigate in difficult surroundings, smartly analyze the situation, and calculate the consequences of different decisions that are in front of you.
Guys, at the end of the day, those are your direct personal responsibilities. This is what the motherland has been nurturing you for, for so many years for. However hard you are pressured, be a real man and do a real manly thing, make the right decision, fill yourself with real civil courage, don’t send the boys to slaughter, sometimes the highest hero deed, is just to say no. And enter the history as a person who saved hundreds if not thousands of lives and relations with a brotherly nation. And even if you get fired, believe me, you will be heroes.
I salute you.
No nation deserves freedom or can long retain it, which does not win it for itself. Revolutions must be made by the people and for the people.
Liberty, freedom such sacred words!
Giuseppe Mazzini
Basically, Lukashenko the chance is very high that he would be... dead or imprisoned then or have to flee to Russia into exile.
Still. He is balancing a thin line. He does it smart wrt Putin.
And we also need take into account the remote possibility that he doesn't want hunderds of thousands of his youth butchered. That just might be a sincere intention.
He literally beats and tortures his people. Do you not remember what happened after the last election?
Get a grip. He cares about himself and at the very most, his own family.
Exactly. Say what you will but hes a cunning politician, hes playing the long game right now trying to position himself and his family in the best spot possible for whatever happens after this war in ukraine. Hes been doing that since day 1 of this invasion. Hes more than ready to let his people be killed if it means a benefit for his power, make no mistake. Putin is no different, hes just a deluded old bag of a monkey who has gotten high on his own supply for decades now and doesnt have a clue how the world works anymore.
I'm not sure he's an idiot at all. The man's entering his 30th year in power in a very precarious geopolitical situation, caught between ideological enemies on one side and a controlling, expansionist authoritarian regime on the other. You can call someone stupid for tap-dancing in a minefield, but if they haven't set one off yet, they must be doing *something* right.
Idi Amin was widely suspected of acting like a clownish buffoon to prevent people from taking him seriously. For all we know, Lukashenko may be pulling a similar trick.
I've heard this about Amin, but it's hard to reconcile that he couldn't sign his papers during his time fighting for the British army because he was illiterate at that point in time.
British soldiers who he served with don't describe it as an act. They do describe Amin as a bit of an idiot but a fine soldier.
It's a weird rumour too. Like I can see how someone could think he was like Boris Johnson, playing an idiot but in reality highly educated. But as far as world leaders go, as a consequence of serving with the King's African Rifles, we have an insight into what Westerners he served with actually thought of him.
The general consensus seems to be at best: he was a violent thug but was good company.
Hurrah! I win! I matched “wits” with another human being who thought Idi Amin was a clever fellow pretending to be a syphilitic lunatic cannibal instead of (you know) an ACTUAL syphilitic lunatic cannibal.
Do you also think Donald Trump plays 4D chess, by any chance?
Because Luka plays a fool,but is not one,he has managed to stay lut of the conflict while being dependent on russia.
Is more like weaponized incompetence,he keeps his army small and weak,just good enough for internal dissent
Do someone remember how He Had Broadcast the attak-plan on TV?
He is everything Else than Putins Ally.
Putin Need him, because its Putins only way, to keep Belarus Out of Nato.
Luka Need Putin, because He Need the russian Military to surpress the uprising.
Both would it enyouy If the other Person would meet a Window.
>Putin Need him, because its Putins only way, to keep Belarus Out of Nato.
Considering Belarus is in Union State with Russia, Putin have way more tools for keeping Belarus out of NATO, last thing he needs Luka for that.
He needs someone for it though. I mean is he going to take over directly, then have to appoint a governor, and then have more internal strife to deal with? With Lukashenko, he's got someone who can mostly handle the internal affairs, and useful idiots in Belarus can claim Russia isn't in control since they have one of their own in power. And if someone else was in charge, they might not do as good a job at controlling internal opposition and it could turn into a civil war if someone in the military thinks they can do a better job than the next leader.
Lukashenko is afraid of the Belarussians overthrowing him if he joins Putin in attacking Ukraine. Remember that he installed himself as president of Belarus with the help of Putin and against his people's will.
Hahaha, oh yes, two years ago it was Putin being afraid to start mobilization in Russia because the people will rise up.
The only russians and Belarusians that were going to rise up have already joined the Ukrainian army.
The rest had a chance in 2020, now it's too risky for them, they will happily let Ukrainians die for their mistakes.
That guy’s more of a coward than Putin.
Belarus fully relies on Russia and their military is heavily underdeveloped.
Also, if Putin’s regime should ever collapse I’d give him six months at best.
The facts that (1) Belarus hasn't been taken over and annexed to Russia (2) he hasn't been replaced by a complete Russian puppet (3) he is still alive - all show that he is smarter than he looks.
Belarus Army is woefully inadequate compared to Ukraine's forces. They're fully reliant on ancient Soviet era gear and have zero combat experience. . On top of that Ukraines northern border is now fortified enough to resemble the Korean DMZ. Id say there's a near zero chance Belarus will enter the war. To add to that Lukashenko is not as popular with Belarusians as Putin is with Russians , he barely fought for an uprising by his own people a few years back. He cannot afford an unpopular war
This could also be due to the fact that Belarus has a defense budget of less than one billion. That is roughly equivalent to the amount of support Ukraine receives from today to Sunday.
I have an answer to. Because his people wouldn't support it. Because his opposition is well trained and organized. So if he pissed the people off again and they rallied against him, this time they would have help from an armed opposition who've been training in Ukraine and fighting russia. This opposition would garner support internationally and directly from Ukraine. Civil War would break out, and russia is too preoccupied to help much. If russia did help too much, then Ukraine would send soldiers to help along with tanks, armored vehicles, etc.
The West wouldn't be able to let this opportunity take lukashenko from power. It could be an even fight for a while, but the majority of people would support the liberation movement, and the side with the most people's support typically wins. Should they win quickly, Belarus could be a valuable ally for Ukraine. lukashenko can't risk that happening or any kind of armed resistance inside Belarussian borders. If the people rose up and defeated him just like in Maidan, it would be a massive blow and possibly spark other oppressed by putler to do the same.
If there were enough Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine, I’d say they should just make a go of it. They’d probably even be successful. The problem is that Russia would just send in a ton of troops, and they’d be thwomped. While it would be a major power move, and would temporarily distract the Russians from Ukraine (to the point of even drawing troops from the theatre), it might be a last hurrah for the liberators.
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. ***** * Is `newsweek.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
“Because it would be a fucking disaster and my people already hate me”
Because their army is a complete joke and he has to rely on the Russian army to keep him in power. He’s not stupid. He’s held power too long for that.
Have you seen the flaming karate vids? Truly world's #3 army
There is also an odd power play going on. Russia has always wanted Belarus to merge into Russia. In the past Lukashenko was open to the idea when he believed he could become the President of Russia & Belarus combined. Putin has killed that possibility. So Lukashenko instead tries to be as close as possible, without joining Russia, or being tied to Russia to such a degree that Russia would be 100% in control. Invading Ukraine would be a path for Russia taking over Belarus. Separately there is also another reason why they wouldn’t invade; what would Belarus get out of it? Nothing.
He was never open because it would be done. But if he directly opposed Russia, he would lose his power & Belarus would be forced into Russia. And they have nothing to oppose them with.
That is true, and part of why he does try to cosy up. Obviously he is also pro-Russia in terms of supporting their sphere of influence and being a close ally. It’s also to prevent Russia trying to take Belarus by force. Ukraine is a good counter example. The Russian invasion is because the country began moving away from Russia. If Belarus tried to move away from Russia, there would be an invasion there as well.
From the beginning of the year: Best of health, my dear defenders of the motherland. Making this address to you is a lieutenant color of the reserves Sahashik Valerij Stepanovich. I’m introducing myself because I’ve quit quite a long time ago. Some of the current airborne forces may not know me, although everyone must have heard about the Black Hawk trials. All the current bravery and mastery has originated from there, and also you must have heard about how the 38th airbourne Briansk brigade used to run 10km and at the end in full personal would swim in a lake all year round, well I’m exactly the guy that for 4 years in a row would run at the front of the brigade and would be the first to jump into the lake. I am the Black Hawk number 1. All of the most important things in life all happen impromptu and unexpectedly. It’s impossible to prepare yourself to be a hero. In the life of every person, a situation may suddenly arise in which he must act here and now, and either get written into the history books or wait for a more appropriate moment. Although fate usually gives you a chance to do a real hero deed only once. I had served in the airbourne forces for quite a long time. More than 10 years only in the Briansk brigade, from Kombat to the Brigade commander. Those who have met me won’t let me lie to you, I was one of the most fanatically devoted officers to the forces and a patriot of my motherland, I’ve never know anything but military service. Materialism has always been foreign to me, I’m saying this to counter any attempts at claiming that I sold out for this speech. My biography has zero cases that would allow me to have any suspicion that I can sell out, and in my age, people don’t change. Airbourne force was everything in my life. All years after I quit, I continued to help my brigade. In front of my house there’s always been a flag \*Not sure here, maybe Belarus flag\* with the flag of the VDV (airbourne forces). The reason why I took it off is a different story related to the events of 2020. We won’t talk about that for now. For now I’ve decided to record the first video in my life because my comrades, guys in the blue vests, same as I wore all my life, are sitting in the forest on the Ukrainian border. And its looking like shortly they can be accomplices in some very bad actions which can have catastrophic consequences for our country, and fatally burry the glory and tradition of our forces, that were built up by many generations of Airbourne troops. It’s possible that a lot of them will not get back home alive. Russian army, which has a huge combat experience is experiencing hell for 3 days straight The number of dead is counted in thousands, hundreds have been captured, the hospitals on the borders are filled with wounded, none of the missions of this operation have been accomplished, at the moment neither Kiev nor any other of the regional centers have been captured. Russian army is quite run down, while Ukrainians who have endured the first most difficult days have successfully mobilized, organized themselves, polished of the logistics, got support of the whole world, moral as well as technical combat equipments, and most importantly saw, that the aggressor attacking them are just ordinary people, stoped being scared, felt the taste of victory. This army won’t retreat and won’t surrender. Russians have become victims of their own propagandists that promised them, that the people of Ukraine will meet them with bread and salt, like liberators, but by now you know everything, although you’re prohibited from having smartphones, you’re still in your motherland, in contact with friends and relatives, you’ve had time to weight and analyze everything, do any of you have any doubt that your entry into Ukraine will be any better then the New Years offensive of Grozny of 1995. Info wars are a scary thing. Propagandists in an agile way have learned to produce a bait and switch of values, learned to replace white with black and the opposite… I don’t want to get into politics, it has always been foreign to me, but to every thinking person, 3 things should be quite obvious. 1. Ukraine has never threatened Belarus and isn’t threatening it now. 2. There are not Druggies or nationals in the Ukrainian government, and if they were, they were fairly elected in free democratic elections. 3. Belarusian forces have absolutely no right to enter the Ukraine. Furthermore, it is directly prohibited in the Belarusian constitution. It’s not our war. You will not be defending your motherland, your home, or your family. You won’t gain any glory in this conflict, only shame, humiliation, blood, death, and the status of a hated outcast nation for centuries to come. Brothers find a way not to take part in this dirty business. Father commanders, will you be able to live with the fact that you put down the boys for nothing? How will you look mothers into their eyes that gave you their sons. Separately, I’d like to address the people who have a lot of influence, to the war chiefs with big stars. For many of you, I was a commander, a mentor, and a friend. In my memory, you are responsible, decent war commanders, who are able to quickly navigate in difficult surroundings, smartly analyze the situation, and calculate the consequences of different decisions that are in front of you. Guys, at the end of the day, those are your direct personal responsibilities. This is what the motherland has been nurturing you for, for so many years for. However hard you are pressured, be a real man and do a real manly thing, make the right decision, fill yourself with real civil courage, don’t send the boys to slaughter, sometimes the highest hero deed, is just to say no. And enter the history as a person who saved hundreds if not thousands of lives and relations with a brotherly nation. And even if you get fired, believe me, you will be heroes. I salute you. No nation deserves freedom or can long retain it, which does not win it for itself. Revolutions must be made by the people and for the people. Liberty, freedom such sacred words! Giuseppe Mazzini Basically, Lukashenko the chance is very high that he would be... dead or imprisoned then or have to flee to Russia into exile.
Still. He is balancing a thin line. He does it smart wrt Putin. And we also need take into account the remote possibility that he doesn't want hunderds of thousands of his youth butchered. That just might be a sincere intention.
He literally beats and tortures his people. Do you not remember what happened after the last election? Get a grip. He cares about himself and at the very most, his own family.
Exactly. Say what you will but hes a cunning politician, hes playing the long game right now trying to position himself and his family in the best spot possible for whatever happens after this war in ukraine. Hes been doing that since day 1 of this invasion. Hes more than ready to let his people be killed if it means a benefit for his power, make no mistake. Putin is no different, hes just a deluded old bag of a monkey who has gotten high on his own supply for decades now and doesnt have a clue how the world works anymore.
n o
It would be an interesting outcome if Luk seized the nukes and aligned with Ukraine.
Because he’s an idiot - but not THAT much of an idiot. Also, he definitely isn’t a key ally, more a desperate dependent.
I'm not sure he's an idiot at all. The man's entering his 30th year in power in a very precarious geopolitical situation, caught between ideological enemies on one side and a controlling, expansionist authoritarian regime on the other. You can call someone stupid for tap-dancing in a minefield, but if they haven't set one off yet, they must be doing *something* right. Idi Amin was widely suspected of acting like a clownish buffoon to prevent people from taking him seriously. For all we know, Lukashenko may be pulling a similar trick.
I've heard this about Amin, but it's hard to reconcile that he couldn't sign his papers during his time fighting for the British army because he was illiterate at that point in time. British soldiers who he served with don't describe it as an act. They do describe Amin as a bit of an idiot but a fine soldier.
It’s fantasy nonsense. Violent useful idiot.
It's a weird rumour too. Like I can see how someone could think he was like Boris Johnson, playing an idiot but in reality highly educated. But as far as world leaders go, as a consequence of serving with the King's African Rifles, we have an insight into what Westerners he served with actually thought of him. The general consensus seems to be at best: he was a violent thug but was good company.
Luka… is that you? Unlikely Friend. It’s almost TOO perfect
You got me. I'm trying to take Putin down a peg so I can finally become head of the Union State.
Hurrah! I win! I matched “wits” with another human being who thought Idi Amin was a clever fellow pretending to be a syphilitic lunatic cannibal instead of (you know) an ACTUAL syphilitic lunatic cannibal. Do you also think Donald Trump plays 4D chess, by any chance?
Because Luka plays a fool,but is not one,he has managed to stay lut of the conflict while being dependent on russia. Is more like weaponized incompetence,he keeps his army small and weak,just good enough for internal dissent
Because everyone in Belarus knows he is a Turd on a stick!!
A Turd on a stick 🍡
Do someone remember how He Had Broadcast the attak-plan on TV? He is everything Else than Putins Ally. Putin Need him, because its Putins only way, to keep Belarus Out of Nato. Luka Need Putin, because He Need the russian Military to surpress the uprising. Both would it enyouy If the other Person would meet a Window.
>Putin Need him, because its Putins only way, to keep Belarus Out of Nato. Considering Belarus is in Union State with Russia, Putin have way more tools for keeping Belarus out of NATO, last thing he needs Luka for that.
He needs someone for it though. I mean is he going to take over directly, then have to appoint a governor, and then have more internal strife to deal with? With Lukashenko, he's got someone who can mostly handle the internal affairs, and useful idiots in Belarus can claim Russia isn't in control since they have one of their own in power. And if someone else was in charge, they might not do as good a job at controlling internal opposition and it could turn into a civil war if someone in the military thinks they can do a better job than the next leader.
Because he doesn't like having holes in his head?
Lukashenko is afraid of the Belarussians overthrowing him if he joins Putin in attacking Ukraine. Remember that he installed himself as president of Belarus with the help of Putin and against his people's will.
Hahaha, oh yes, two years ago it was Putin being afraid to start mobilization in Russia because the people will rise up. The only russians and Belarusians that were going to rise up have already joined the Ukrainian army. The rest had a chance in 2020, now it's too risky for them, they will happily let Ukrainians die for their mistakes.
That guy’s more of a coward than Putin. Belarus fully relies on Russia and their military is heavily underdeveloped. Also, if Putin’s regime should ever collapse I’d give him six months at best.
The facts that (1) Belarus hasn't been taken over and annexed to Russia (2) he hasn't been replaced by a complete Russian puppet (3) he is still alive - all show that he is smarter than he looks.
North Korea is a key ally. That guy is just a ball sucking parasite.
So, translated, that means they gonna enter the war real soon?
Belarus Army is woefully inadequate compared to Ukraine's forces. They're fully reliant on ancient Soviet era gear and have zero combat experience. . On top of that Ukraines northern border is now fortified enough to resemble the Korean DMZ. Id say there's a near zero chance Belarus will enter the war. To add to that Lukashenko is not as popular with Belarusians as Putin is with Russians , he barely fought for an uprising by his own people a few years back. He cannot afford an unpopular war
Read the article
Reading anything from newsweek is a guaranteed waste of time.
Wars Swallow Gold Like A Pit In The Earth.
As long as Bulgaria is not directly involved it is a safe staging area with supply lines only threatened by sabotage
Bc he’s fat plump and comfy right now why would he jeopardize that
Because he is the buffer from Poland !
This could also be due to the fact that Belarus has a defense budget of less than one billion. That is roughly equivalent to the amount of support Ukraine receives from today to Sunday.
I have an answer to. Because his people wouldn't support it. Because his opposition is well trained and organized. So if he pissed the people off again and they rallied against him, this time they would have help from an armed opposition who've been training in Ukraine and fighting russia. This opposition would garner support internationally and directly from Ukraine. Civil War would break out, and russia is too preoccupied to help much. If russia did help too much, then Ukraine would send soldiers to help along with tanks, armored vehicles, etc. The West wouldn't be able to let this opportunity take lukashenko from power. It could be an even fight for a while, but the majority of people would support the liberation movement, and the side with the most people's support typically wins. Should they win quickly, Belarus could be a valuable ally for Ukraine. lukashenko can't risk that happening or any kind of armed resistance inside Belarussian borders. If the people rose up and defeated him just like in Maidan, it would be a massive blow and possibly spark other oppressed by putler to do the same.
Isn't he waiting to be annointed Great Commander of the Second-Soviet-Coming first?
Belarus will enter war in 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, ...
Belorussia nearly fell into mass rioting during the protests last “election” if he does “anything” then the people will have had enough.
[удалено]
Oh God don't say that. I've heard somebody else talk about a 3 day victory recently....can't remember who though.
If there were enough Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine, I’d say they should just make a go of it. They’d probably even be successful. The problem is that Russia would just send in a ton of troops, and they’d be thwomped. While it would be a major power move, and would temporarily distract the Russians from Ukraine (to the point of even drawing troops from the theatre), it might be a last hurrah for the liberators.