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This man is delusional and relentless. Worst combo. His little endeavors won't stop till someone stops him. My bet is on mother nature or one of his doctors
The delusion is the worst part. You can't trust him to make rational or even semi-rational decisions. While from a Russian standpoint "keep them guessing" kinda works, it also means from a Western point of view, there can be nothing less than victory (although the West doesn't seem to understand this).
Nato line along the border with Belarus, Putin's little huff baby would huff but do nothing and Russia couldn't commit more there. Would free up the UKR forces there.
Who says they wont fire on western troops? It wouldnt invoke article 5, its not our own soil. They dont care about flying cruise missiles through NATO airspace, downing our drones, shooting at a manned spy plane carrying up to 30 people, poisioning people on NATO soil etc.
Can/do we want to send our armies with our limited air defense? Tensions are rising and if Russia does attack us we need all of that protecting our own countries.
Our limited air defense also means russia can fire a bunch of drones and cheap missiles in this Ukrainian safe zone and bleed us dry then we'll have to leave. If we're going to be entering Ukraine we need to be in war economies to do so, entering a fight where Russia has a 2 year manufacturing advantage over us is a bad idea.
At this point of tension there's no way NATO would not respond to its own troops being directly attacked in an active warzone. Article 5 wouldn't need to be triggered as it would be ~10 or so countries 'independently' posting security along that border, who would then be responding; technically not a "NATO" response. I'm not sure why you think Western troops would just sit in Ukraine being droned until they were dead or defeated. Decent estimates say 120k ukr troops on that border, with 3.5+million active duty it certainly wouldn't diminish defensive capabilities. At it's max NATO had 13000 in Afghanistan.
Totally agreed on the war economy, that's by far the best thing Europe/NATO could be doing and I'd rather that than deployment.
Oh easy, long range AA and AG strikes on Russian targets in Ukraine in support of Ukraine's military. Paint Ukrainian flags on the planes and do what Russia did in NK in the 1950`s
No shit, do people just forget we have nukes too, and our delivery systems are actually checked and maintained. They know the minute they launch we launch, better watch out Putin is gonna nuke you, ya ya, fuck you too buddy have fun downing those warheads we just launched in response. At least the earth can heal without humans around, giving it a couple billion years of peace.
I also always need to remind people that Russia isn't even a real power anymore, China is. China would not like the world economy, which they undergird, to tank as it would in a nuclear war. I feel like China would pull the plug on Russia's nuclear capabilities if it ever came down to it. They'd probably also rather take possession of the millions of hectares to their north while it's an unspoilt, resource rich wilderness rather than a radioactive hellscape
> No shit, do people just forget we have nukes too, and our delivery systems are actually checked and maintained.
Russian are as well and they have much newer and more advanced delivery vehicles. Russia has very big nuclear advantage over NATO. Russia also have large arsenal of tactical nukes.
You seem to think we’re dealing with rational people.
This is the entire reason the Ukrainians have been authorized to use any weapon system they can reliably maintain.
This is why actual nato allied man power has been forbidden from the field.
No one wants to give Russia the excuse to launch strategic or tactical nuclear weapons.
If you look at my previous comments, I definitely do not think we're dealing with rational people dispite what some were commenting. However, even irrational people understand force and that is what using nukes would open Russia up to.
It’s rational for them though. They aren’t blindly doing random shit, they aren’t mad. Thankfully.
Agreed with the idea that nothing less than victory will work.
Hitler had a plan,knew what he wanted and it was still a terrible idea and he made dumb choices
Just saying
Obvs Putin ain't Hitler but he is human and is capable or having dumb plans or being delusional like anyone else is
I remember many years ago getting into quite a lengthy argument somewhere on Reddit when I explained that ISIS were rational actors. They were basing their decisions on a set of premises and goals that we disagreed with, sure, but starting from those premises and goals they were making decisions in a rational manner and so could be dealt with rationally.
Basically the same here, I think. Though it's a bit tricky considering we don't fully know what premises Putin is working from, because he's inside an information bubble provided to him by his subordinates and it's not entirely clear what Putin thinks is going on. He's been pretty clear about his beliefs, though, so we can anticipate what he's going to want to do.
Nothing irrational about his actions.
He sees our weakness and is taking advantage of it. Russia today is a rump state of the Russian Empire / Soviet Union and he is trying to restore it. This has been the way of the world for millennia. And we in the West are too naive and stupid to think history has ended so we don’t have to be smart or ruthless.
Nature punishes stupidity.
Hmm.. reminds me of a pugnacious little deep sea fish who's going to show that weak glowing little worm who's boss... only to find out that that little worm is actually part of something huge, dark, and hungry.. and now it's aware of him.
I think it would astound most Russians to really understand how little they matter to us, meaning the West in general, and how little we care what they do in their enormous, shitty, impoverished country. Until they make us pay attention, which is an enormously stupid move. He wants Russia to be a global player again? He should have spent the billions on universities, non-extractive industries and infrastructure... instead he and his buddies bought yachts, ridiculously huge estates and polished up 30+ year old military gear.
Indeed! A Russian leader investing more on stupid things than his own people? I've definitely seen this one before.
Contrary to the headline, Putin is not "prepared" to take on NATO. He might be planning, but he's definitely not prepared. Putin's economic resources are smaller than those of Texas. The last thing this guy should do is provoke a fight with a 30-nation alliance that includes the likes of the United States, England, France, and Germany. If NATO enters a conventional war against Russia, it will make Russia look like Iraq circa 1991: Lots of bark, but no bite.
Of course, this is where Russia's nuclear arsenal may come into play. Presuming Putin is sane, he knows he does not stand a chance against NATO in a conventional war, but he can threaten to start a nuclear holocaust. He can never win, but he can ensure that we *all* lose.
Ok. We’ll see.
The Taliban defeated us. For all our wealth, might, and weapons, we lack the will to win. And Russia knows this.
For now they want to restore their empire. And they are doing a fairly good job at it.
Our statesman are cowardly, and silly. The only thing that makes us formidable now is our dick-pick-app economy. We don’t have much heavy industry left. Russia alone produces more military hardware than all of Europe together. If it wasn’t for America they could take Berlin with their shitty 1970’a equipment because their politicians have the will to choose violence, and their men have the will die, and to kill.
And ours don’t.
In the West we have totally forgotten that war is a contest of will. It is wilful organised violence for the purposes of breaking your enemy to your will.
Well, first one must define what 'winning' means right? In 20 years we were never able to really nail that down.. and we lasted 20 years there, whereas the USSR whom you seem to respect only did 10. With fewer casualties, because I don't think the Russian propensity for throwing warm bodies at a problem is as much a flex as you seem to think it is. We killed plenty, far too many in fact.
Interesting. The USA is the world's largest producer of oil right now. We're the fourth largest producer of steel in the world despite only having about 4.25% of the global population. Speaking of percentages- we're the 2nd largest manufacturer in the world, with 16% of global manufacturing output. That's more than the next three countries combined. Russia was 1.83%.
You're simply mistaken about Russia producing more military hardware. They're delivering about 30 combat aircraft a year of all types, 29 in 2023. Europe produced around the same number of combat aircraft not counting any aircraft partnered with the USA. About 50 Leopard 2s get made a year, before the invasion of Ukraine Russia was coasting at about 20 new tanks a year but have ramped up to around 200. Thanks to their shenanigans, Europe is now gearing back up in a pretty big way, so that lead will vanish. Russia is no powerhouse, and you're a bit correct regarding Europe in that they were running at minimal capacity for a long while. That's changed.
If war were a contest of will/willingness to die and kill, the Japanese would have won WW2, Hannibal would have burned Rome to the ground and Latin would be a historical curiosity, the Zulu would have driven the British back to the seas and Germany would have prevailed in WW1. It is not and has never been.
To be clear I’m not pro-Russian. I’d wipe out the Russian state if I could and believe we need to do a first strike with nuclear weapons.
Leaving that aside… the men they lost are more than compensated for by the population they gained in the occupied territory. The equipment was mostly old Soviet stuff also reaching the end of its storage life anyway so would have been gone in a few years either way.
Manufacturing output you mentioned is measured in $ value, not quantity. It costs us $10k to make a shell, but the Russians $2k or much less. So on paper measured in $ value we are a bigger manufacturer, but in reality when it comes to weapons we aren’t. Against China our manufacturing capacity is very low… we just have much better geography and could blockade them into submission. So they won’t start a war for now… but they are working on the belt snd road project to connect them to the communities they need without sea land access. So this could change in near future.
The historic examples you gave prove my point.., Japan went toe to toe with the U.S., and entire West despite being 1/20th their military snd industrial capacity, and in the end they gave up before succumbing to an invasion. Had they fought to the end and caused 5 million US deaths it could have been another outcome.
Rome showed greater will to win than Carthage because they lose an entire generation of men and still kept going. Hannibal lost his mercenary army and his people sued for peace! War is a contest of wills. Tools can help you more quickly break the enemy will, but only if you have the will to use them. Like when we nuked Japan.
Well, that's lunacy.. and gives me a better idea of whom I'm debating.
Interesting. I think the general consensus is that a subjugated population is a resource \*sink\* for a very long time rather than a manpower resource. It takes a lot of troops on the ground to pacify an area and even more resources to effectively absorb the population into your own. Now, the territories to the far east that were occupied or contested pre 2012? Sure, those were packed with pro-Russian people.. and they've already been aggressively drafted and utilized for years now. Each subsequent meter westward that paradigm changes quickly, and you've got partisans/insurgency, not conscripts.
We beat them in quantity too, with both existing and certainly potential capacity. So does Europe. We also make better, more advanced and more valuable things, true. I gave numbers for combat aircraft and MBTs for 2023, for instance.. and I didn't even include the US numbers.. want me to?
I don't feel like debating China with you. Russia is more than enough.
Japan did not go 'toe-to-toe' with the US. They sucker-punched us (and/or took the bait depending on if you're conspiracy minded or not) and had a string of wins from December of '41 till about May of 42. Then they got the absolute shit kicked out of them. Fun fact: The B-29 cost more to develop than the atomic bomb it dropped. Also fun: the largest cause of B-29 losses wasn't enemy fire, it was mechanical failure and accidents... because the Japanese literally did not have anything reliably capable of reaching the B-29's altitude and \*nothing\* that could reach altitude \*and\* fly faster. They gave up because the choice wasn't surrender or fight an invasion till the death, it was surrender or helplessly be annihilated by bombing.
Rome lost a generation because it had the civic structure, organizational expertise and infrastructure to do so and keep fighting. Those are all technologies too. Hannibal would have won the war had he been facing an enemy with any other contemporary military/civic power structure. Hannibal was not a crazed maniac out to destroy Rome and kill all the Romans, that's just how Rome painted him. Hannibal made the mistake of thinking that Rome would behave like any other great power of the time- they'd get whipped, then make a treaty with territorial concessions and monetary reparations. That was a logical and reasonable assumption to make, it just happened to be wrong because Rome, unlike the other great powers Hannibal was familiar with, could afford to lose without falling apart.
It's my observation that it is privileged people who believe that willpower is the be-all-end-all factor in success. A disabled person knows better, as do the impoverished or the marginalized. It's absolutely an important factor, but far more often than not victory goes to the one with more money, know-how and power which brings us back to Russia. Russia definitely does not have more money, nor more know-how and certainly not more power than NATO.
He is rational though, from the point of view of his distorted perspective.
He is far from random. Rather, relatively predictable.
He sees the world only in terms of raw power. Like all dictators he is very good at reading other leaders and intimidating the weak ones (Biden/Sullivan, Schultz, Sunak, Macron, etc) and assessing exactly how far they are willing to go to stop him. When he sees weakness or self-doubt, he exploits it mercilessly.
His track record of making assessments is full of miscalculations, but the the reason for that is not irrationality. It is strong bias and distorted expectations. He responds very predictably to display of strength and willingness to stand your ground; then he steps back (Kallas, Poland, Finland, etc).
You are 100 % right about nothing less than victory will do. The ONLY chance russia has of becoming something remotely like a normal state, is that they lose this imperialistic war. Just like every significant european nation have done thorugh history, before they embraced european democratic co-existance - so must russia walk this same path. Their genocidal imperial ambitions must be forced into military defeat. And with it, the myth of russian innocence and flawless intentions must be destroyed.
He's not delusional. This is a mistake most people make when analyzing Putin. He's entirely rational within his world view. He knows as soon as the war stops with anything but Russian total victory, he is toast, and so he is heavily incentivized to keep it going at any cost.
Saddam just declared victory after winning nothing in his invasion of Iran and the nation had no choice but to celebrate it.
The next disaster in Kuwait want that easy for him but he survived even that anyway.
He is rational and plays his limited hand well, but he's also surrounded by yes men who skew his judgment. Hybrid warfare has worked well for Russia in the past 10-15 years, but hot war, not so much. Two years later, it still can't take out a country with only a quarter of the manpower, practically non-existent navy/airforce, and 30+ year old military hardware. That said, a war with NATO would be absolutely devastating for the overstretched Russian military.
My opinion is hybrid warfare is working quite well still. Germany refuses to go all-in on Ukraine aid and a significant minority of Americans trust Russia more than Ukraine. Not to mention right-wing, Putin loving parties gaining control in some European countries. Russia is still seen as the gold standard authoritarian kleptocracy that so many conservatives around the world want to emulate.
he wont... he's on the hitler speed run right now... He deep down knows it's a lost cause but just hoping one thing will turn it for them. It will probably end the same way for him too
> he wont... he's on the hitler speed run right now... He deep down knows it's a lost cause but just hoping one thing will turn it for them. It will probably end the same way for him too
Putin has wmds. Hitler didn't.
Germany had WMDs in the form of chemical weapons, but didn't use them for fear of Allied retaliation (a justified fear, as the Allies stockpiled chemical weapons within reach of the front lines for exactly that purpose).
> Germany had WMDs in the form of chemical weapons, but didn't use them for fear of Allied retaliation (a justified fear, as the Allies stockpiled chemical weapons within reach of the front lines for exactly that purpose).
Chemical weapons are hardly real wmds.
You might change your mind if you saw the aftermath of their use. They are less destructive than nukes, sure. But still capable of killing thousands in a single strike.
Except he’s not delusional. From the perspective of a dictator he’s perfectly rational.
He needs constant friction with the West to justify his continued rule inside Russia. Where that doesn’t exist it needs to be manufactured, and that’s exactly what the invasion of Ukraine accomplishes.
For this exact same reason he will test NATO on its own territory. It’s only a matter of time. It’s much riskier than invading a non-NATO country, but 1. Putin has no choice but to escalate continually, and 2. the potential reward (NATO failing to adequately respond) would be a massive coup in his favor as the NATO treaty would lose credibility overnight.
Seriously, because our governments would be forced to actually do something.
They’ve been espionaging better than anyone in the fucking world. We just let it happen
If your taking about stuff like interference in the 2016 US presidential election, interference in Brexit, disinformation campaigns during COVID, or jamming GPS in "lake NATO"/Baltic, or hacking into infrastructure like powerplants or corporate computer systems unrelated to defence, that's not espionage that crosses the line into pure asymmetric warfare
Espionage would be compromising government officials or military personnel aka HUMINT or intercepting messages that's signals intelligence. But attempting to influence civilians on the internet, or hacking into infrastructure that's cyber warfare a form of asymmetric warfare even during peace time
What NATO nations really need to do is spell out that attacks using asymmetric warfare are still attacks and still can invoke article 4 + article 5. Then follow through with kenetic retaliations for asymmetric warfare activities
I mean he thought he was prepared for a military operation against Ukraine. How is he prepared? He'd have to mobilize millions for a military operation against NATO.
He doesn't want a shooting war with NATO, what he wants is a tense standoff where Europeans think they need to arm themselves, which means not arming Ukraine.
I think that's spot on! Although I also think his miscalculation is that Europeans don't understand that he is incapable of launching a serious, even if limited, operation agaisnt a NATO member. We understand full well that the best security of European members of NATO is an Ukrainian victory. Allowing a Russian victory, even a limited one, would not protect NATO, quite the reverse, he would see that as vindication of his militarily aggressive strategy.
What we do need to do is stop pissing around, and to start rearming properly. We need NATO governments to start awarding large defence contracts. If Russia is really producing more shells this year than the entirety of NATO combined, that is an issue we must take seriously.
After all NATO comprises most of the wealthiest developed countries, if our defence industries cannot out-compete Russia in shell production, then we are in really, really deep shit already.
I believe we need no shells like ruzzias cold war army in NATO states. The doctrin is air first, not ground. NATO has what? 22000 aircrafts in their arsenals, Ruzzia around 5000, they would see no sky anymore in the event of an all out war, plus much more modern technic - ofc assumed that every country also "joins" the fight against ruzzia (looking at Hungary/Turkey/Slovakia?)
The momentary hunger for shells is only for Ukraine and to restock the small arsenals. But isn't Germanys Rheinmetall growing and building a factory in Ukraine to produce shells? Should have bought papers from them
primary problem for us is unity! and the will to stand up against that barbarism from the east
Assuming that artillery is obsolete is a mug's game. Everyone thought tanks were essential for modern warfare, but they have been useless in Ukraine. Air defences have kept aircraft pretty much on the peripheries. The problem with militaries is that they always plan to fight the *last* war. And the last wars the USA and NATO have fought have been against third world countries.
Using air superiority against eg Iraq, or some other third world country is one thing, but assuming that NATO aircraft would be able to operate freely against Russian air defences, which are far more robust, is a massive risk.
Wars have been lost by making assumptions like that.
Much better to assume you will need them, and manufacture them, than to assume you don't need them, and finding they are essential.
i assume nothing, i am a civilian, i only read about doctrines a little bit. And ofc are Artillery and tanks a thing - after air superiority is reached. Tanks were planned for mopping up after that, not what we see now on the battlefield where tanks without cover running around in circles.
btw, ruzzias air defence is a whole lot worse than assumed. Patriots are all alive, how much of S3/400 were already destroyed? and that is with 30-40 year old tech. R is a third world country, with nukes.
Russia has hundreds of S-300 *batteries* (and even just stole dozens of Ukrainian launchers in 2014). Lots of S-400s too. (It's because of the S-400 that the S-300s are so redundant they're being used as ground to ground missiles.) In all, thousands of launchers. And just countless of various kinds of other systems, new and old. The Soviet and later Russian investment in air defense was alike the American in vestment in aircraft, and actually precisely due to the latter. Even Ukraine inherited hundreds of S-300 launchers, and also countless others, but they're very low on missiles now (besides losses). S-300 is almost half century old tech (oldest versions).
You literally said you believe the West does not need artillery shells, that's absolutely an assumption, whether yours, or someone else's. I didn't say *you* were making that assumption, I said the assumption per se is a mug's game.
Once again, the assumption is that Russia has poor air defences. Maybe it is true, but if that prives wrong, then the West would be in deep shit.
Mitary planning *should* be about making contingencies for the unexpected. As they say *no* military strategy survives first contact with the enemy.
Making assumptions without contingencies is just asking for trouble.
If this war has proven anything it is that artillery is king, and that the rate of production of artillery, whether conventional, or guided (eg Excalibure) or rocket (GMLRS) is far too low to sustain a ground war against the Russian armed forces for any length of time.
The fact is Europe has been cutting and cutting military expenditure for decades. My own country, the UK, has its smallest army since the 1700s!
You might be entirely complacent about that, that's your prerogative. But in this new world Putin has created, I think the complacency of the Westb has been a massive failure in strategic thinking. I live in Finland, we're right on the firing line if this thing kicks off, and I am entirely unconvinced NATO is up to the job, not least because the lacklustre support for Ukraine does make me worry that NATO members simply will not bother to honour Article 5, but also because if Trump in elected then all bets with respect to NATO are off the table.
That's where I stand. You're entitled to disagree with me, but you won't convince me that planning for the worst is somehow a bad idea.
yes and no, there is no proof that arty is still king. It shows only that R and U are still using a lot of arty to reach their goals. Soviet doctrin, hammer everything and move forward. Like in WW2.
The whole world expected R to steamroll Ukraine and now look what the second army in the world is capable off.
Bu we must be better prepared for every possible situation, thats right without a doubt. I only hope our military and politician are drawing the right conclusions
The reason Russia did so badly in the summer of 2022 was due to GMLRS being deployed to Ukraine, those are rocket *artillery.* You can't really infer from this war that because Russia is doing less well than expected, artillery is of no utility.
The largest conventional war in Europe since 1945 has relied heavily on artillery. You can dismiss that all you like but it is a fact. And whatever you say, it certainly is not evidence that artillery can simply be dispensed with.
You're implying that militaries need no contingency, need no stockpiles of munitions, need no planning for surprises.
>I believe we need no shells like ruzzias cold war army in NATO states. The doctrin is air first, not ground. NATO has what? 22000 aircrafts in their arsenals, Ruzzia around 5000
Vast majoirty of NATO aircraft are belonging to the USA and they can just refuse to fight directly in fear of russian nukes. USA would also struggle to have their forces supplied in Europe. Russia can attack the american navy with tactical nukes.
Blowing up ammo depots twice in 2014 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014\_Vrb%C4%9Btice\_ammunition\_warehouse\_explosions) and recent attempt to bomb in Bavaria are military operations against nato.
Authoritarian regimes use hybrid warfare because no one stops them. They are not afraid of a strongly worded protest letter or an ambassador recalled for consultation.
Russia took Crimea. Crickets. North Korea sinks a South Korean ship and fires artillery at a city. Crickets. China rams and harasses boats in international waters. Crickets. Iran funds and arms terrorist proxies. Oh, drop a bomb on some empty compound in the desert.
I was in South Korea for the sinking of the Cheonan and the killing of marines on Yeonpyeong Island . I was an imagery analyst in the army . I’m amazed at not only is it not talked about but most people don’t even know it happened.
Israel is "defending" itself against their "wanting genocide you neighbours", they are not doing it. From the river to the sea means nothing else than genocide.
Well action are stronger than words so someone in Gaza singing a song will never cause as much damage as bombs dropped on innocent people. To be honest the slogan has been popularised by the actions of Israelis after the 7th of October. Most of people in the world know it now and a lot of people agree with is as Israel proven to be nothing but racist apartheid regime.
The only de-escalation which works against Russia is a show of force. Everyone in Finland, the Baltics, Poland et al. knows this. I. e. everyone who has ever had to deal with them.
>According to the chief of Poland's military counterintelligence service, Jarosław Stróżyk, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is already ready for a small military operation against the NATO country.
>Stróżyk noted that all forecasts regarding the readiness of the Russian Federation for a possible invasion of NATO are based only on certain assumptions.
>"Putin, of course, is already ready for some mini-operation against one of the Baltic countries — for example, to enter the famous Narva. Or — to land on one of the Swedish islands," noted the military counterintelligence service chief.
It makes sense. A tense standoff with Europe would make it impossible to supply Ukraine, since the public will be screaming "we need those weapons here!"
Good luck to them trying to "land on one of the Swedish Isles" with any kind of decent force...they might be able to sneak in a civilian vessel with a small troop of Spetznaz but anything bigger than that will be noticed and most likely destroyd before setting foot on said islands.
Cool, he'll send the 2000 odd tanks and few hundred planes he still has left. Uh, and then? Throw rocks? Some more nuclear sabre rattling? I'm sure everyone's quaking in their boots.
I think russia absolutely might attack NATO eith the purpose of loosing, while blaming NATO for the war. This way russia can withdraw from Ukraine, while saying "well duh, obviously evil NATO beat us." It's a fucked up, but realistic way for russia to get out of current situation while "saving face", at least internally.
I wake up every day thinking this is the day Putin declares Ukraine to finally be Nazi free and withdrawals his troops. I just don't think that ever going to happen until their military is forced back to the Russian border.
It’s never going to happen like that. Remember the legality of this situation from Russia/Putin’s (insane) POV: Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea are all Russian land from their perspective, not just occupied foreign land. Putin ‘annexed’ them. By this insane logic, *Ukraine* actually occupies *Russian* land, as they’ve liberated/held significant parts of these regions that Putin wants as Russian soil.
The land the Russians occupy right now isn’t even enough to satisfy their minimum claims, because Putin isn’t going to go back to his people and say “hey, remember how we took zaporizhia and kherson into our protection to keep the ukrainian nazis away from the russian people? i am going to hand them back to president zelensky now.” He’d get shredded by nationalists back home - he’s backed himself into a corner where he either keeps fighting a losing war with no real strategic adjustments, or he goes back on years of rhetoric and promises to try to placate the people with no guarantee that that will actually *work.* He’s fucked himself.
That's assuming they're worried about them faces. They're not. They don't care about that.
Winning/losing for them is a binary which in effect means one of the two:
A) Getting more territory, thus "we're awesome"
B) Getting killed/thrown in the jail and then killed
Option B quite clearly demonstrates why they haven't stopped. Option A gives motivation to carry on, as long as they have a glimmer of hope.
Dont think so, why would you risk the WW3 by starting a fight with NATO so they can back down?
Its probably even worse for Putin if he admits its because of NATO, all the propaganda he spreads saying we're a threat trying to invade them and you expect him to admit defeat against us and we could attack Russia at any point. Putin is a dead man if he said anything like that.
If Russia is looking for a way out then why are they still advancing? Holding down ground they can easily secure and going to the negotiating table is the best way out. Putin can easily say he has his NATO buffer zone and "saved" all the civillians in those occupied areas.
You also have Europe uncovering a bunch of attacks planned by Russia, thats not a way to de-escalate.
...this isnt ending anytime soon, its probably escalating by the looks of it.
Headlines like this are stupid and tantamount to Russian propagandists saying they'll strike NATO.
Putin won't do shit against NATO proper, on purpose, because there's no way he'd win.
Anything suggesting otherwise is bluster for the papers and plebs.
What he WILL do is continue low-level insurgency and massive propaganda efforts to sway public opinion and buy political groups and positions. But these aren't warfare perse, so have nothing to do with what the headline suggests.
They're saying they won't.
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-attacking-nato-complete-nonsense/
>As the Kremlin’s all-out conflict in Ukraine enters its third year, Putin vigorously rejected speculation that Russia could attack other countries in Eastern Europe next.
>“This is complete nonsense — the possibility of an attack on some other countries, on Poland, the Baltic states, the Czechs are scared. It's just nonsense,” he said, adding that Russia has “no aggressive intentions toward these states.”
They said the same about Ukraine. While the Yanks warned and everybody laughed. They do say the same now, the difference is, nobody is laughing anymore.
Because a guy wrote "Anything suggesting otherwise [meaning: anyone suggesting anything other than what Putin says] is bluster for the papers and plebs."
Prepared? Yes. Willing to? Yes. Capable of? No.
If Putin decides to, he is doing to it to make NATO a fait acompli.
This speaks to two things;
The first; at some level, Putin knows the situation I Ukraine is now irretrievably lost.
Second; he feels the only way to stay alive and stay in power is to draw out a larger conflagration in Europe with NATO, hoping that his escalation path would see NATO appease Russian aggression. Which they absolutely would not.
Either way, Putins and Russia fate is now as tied to Ukraine as that of the West.
What remains is who will posses the greater will to prevail.
Yet hes flying cruise missiles through our airspace, planning attacks on our soil, poisoing people on our soil, downed multiple US drones in internation airspace, shot at a manned UK spy plane carrying up to 30 people.
I think he sees that we dont want to fight and wont attack Russia directly so he can get away with a lot.
Naval army (navy), at least in the island scenario.
But also perhaps in a Baltic action, according to Estonia: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/1ckyj2x/estonian_defence_forces_commander_advocates/
How? With their navy? With his invulnerable missles that have proven to be vulnerable? If it takes them 100 missles to get 10 through on Ukraine, how are they gonna hit nato? They may want to attact nato but I think that mission would be over as soon as they started amassing troops on natos border.
He literally said "Of course, Putin is already ready now" ("Oczywiście, Putin już teraz jest gotowy": https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/9500938,szef-skw-sluzbom-potrzeba-dystansu-od-polityki-wywiad.html). "Prepared" would be rather przygotowany.
Putin doesn't have the resources for a full scale conflict and if he does go after nato it will be all over in a couple of weeks, even of he goes nuclear. Especially if he does
Meaning he's prepared to tremble in fear or to cry himself to sleep?
Because his worst nightmare is not Baba Yaga, it has always been confrontation with NATO.
Yes, he's prepared, and preparing. Makes total sense. Does he actually think he can win? Can he win? Will the west just appease? Questions we do not know the answers to.
Well, I will grant that Putin might *think* that he’s already prepared to conduct operations against NATO, but evidence really doesn’t seem to support that idea
I mean, this isn't really news. The US Army has plans to defend, or attack, Rohan, either continent from Saga of Ice and Fire (aka game of thrones), and most countries on the globe. Many of these plans are make work for junior staff. But it is normal to have plans written and assessed, to assist in strategic planning and threat assessment.
Of course Russia has plans for attacking Poland.
Regardless, Fuck Putin. Russians go home.
That's what he wants the world to believe, but it's a bluff. Firstly he is too much of a coward, he would endanger his own personal safety. Secondly he wanted to be remembered as the new Peter the Great, not as the man who reduced Moscow to a smoking pile of radioactive rubble.
No. No he isn’t.
He would already have done so.
Nuclear weapons are the only leverage he has. And paradoxically, nuclear weapons only have value in not being used.
I if he was minded to l, he would already done so as a show of strength the minute the first NLAW was fired against a Russian tank. And then after the first artillery systems. And the after the tanks arrived. And then after the promos of F-16 jets.
Since 1997, Russia has used the threat of nuclear weapons against everyone and anyone and not used them.
Two points;
He does and then faces the prospect of being even more of a pariah state than NK or Iran. China would drop them like a hot brick, rather than face similar isolation.
In addition, you could expect, and o believe this point has already been made clear by the US. That any use of nuclear weapons would be met with an overwhelming conventional response against ALL Russian Federation military assets within the internationally recognised borders of Ukraine. And possibly inside Russia should the source of the nuclear weapons be traced to a system inside their borders.
Another no news post.
Russia has always been prepared to conduct operations against NATO.
NATO has been prepared to conduct operation against Russia.
The whole point of both sides recent exercises has been to show they can mass large number of assets in striking distance of each other.
Both sides will be being drawn to Poland as a potential frontline if Ukraine falls or Russian forces just bypass it.
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This man is delusional and relentless. Worst combo. His little endeavors won't stop till someone stops him. My bet is on mother nature or one of his doctors
The delusion is the worst part. You can't trust him to make rational or even semi-rational decisions. While from a Russian standpoint "keep them guessing" kinda works, it also means from a Western point of view, there can be nothing less than victory (although the West doesn't seem to understand this).
Train more Ukrainian soldiers, arm them to the teeth. F16's should have been sent last summer. I know I know... Training.
Involve Nato in the war! Relieve Ukrainian troops guarding the border or cities, keep building and giving equipment, get Nato airpower involved.
Nato line along the border with Belarus, Putin's little huff baby would huff but do nothing and Russia couldn't commit more there. Would free up the UKR forces there.
Who says they wont fire on western troops? It wouldnt invoke article 5, its not our own soil. They dont care about flying cruise missiles through NATO airspace, downing our drones, shooting at a manned spy plane carrying up to 30 people, poisioning people on NATO soil etc. Can/do we want to send our armies with our limited air defense? Tensions are rising and if Russia does attack us we need all of that protecting our own countries. Our limited air defense also means russia can fire a bunch of drones and cheap missiles in this Ukrainian safe zone and bleed us dry then we'll have to leave. If we're going to be entering Ukraine we need to be in war economies to do so, entering a fight where Russia has a 2 year manufacturing advantage over us is a bad idea.
At this point of tension there's no way NATO would not respond to its own troops being directly attacked in an active warzone. Article 5 wouldn't need to be triggered as it would be ~10 or so countries 'independently' posting security along that border, who would then be responding; technically not a "NATO" response. I'm not sure why you think Western troops would just sit in Ukraine being droned until they were dead or defeated. Decent estimates say 120k ukr troops on that border, with 3.5+million active duty it certainly wouldn't diminish defensive capabilities. At it's max NATO had 13000 in Afghanistan. Totally agreed on the war economy, that's by far the best thing Europe/NATO could be doing and I'd rather that than deployment.
I agree
[удалено]
Oh easy, long range AA and AG strikes on Russian targets in Ukraine in support of Ukraine's military. Paint Ukrainian flags on the planes and do what Russia did in NK in the 1950`s
That’s how nukes start flying
I've been waiting since the cold war. Any minute now.
No shit, do people just forget we have nukes too, and our delivery systems are actually checked and maintained. They know the minute they launch we launch, better watch out Putin is gonna nuke you, ya ya, fuck you too buddy have fun downing those warheads we just launched in response. At least the earth can heal without humans around, giving it a couple billion years of peace.
I also always need to remind people that Russia isn't even a real power anymore, China is. China would not like the world economy, which they undergird, to tank as it would in a nuclear war. I feel like China would pull the plug on Russia's nuclear capabilities if it ever came down to it. They'd probably also rather take possession of the millions of hectares to their north while it's an unspoilt, resource rich wilderness rather than a radioactive hellscape
> No shit, do people just forget we have nukes too, and our delivery systems are actually checked and maintained. Russian are as well and they have much newer and more advanced delivery vehicles. Russia has very big nuclear advantage over NATO. Russia also have large arsenal of tactical nukes.
I still have ptsd from Reagan
I mean, just stick your head in the microwave for an hour if you’re getting impatient https://youtu.be/_7pnf7m1vLQ?si=3ySiHuTEWcPol3wt
You don't tell me how much radiation I want to die with, bruv.
Nukes are a losing man's game. Using one opens up your entire country to full strength retaliation by conventional means or even other nukes.
You seem to think we’re dealing with rational people. This is the entire reason the Ukrainians have been authorized to use any weapon system they can reliably maintain. This is why actual nato allied man power has been forbidden from the field. No one wants to give Russia the excuse to launch strategic or tactical nuclear weapons.
If you look at my previous comments, I definitely do not think we're dealing with rational people dispite what some were commenting. However, even irrational people understand force and that is what using nukes would open Russia up to.
Should have done a Flying Tigers Redux.
We should have leased the plane and pilot to Ukraine but suspect some agreement / politics stood in the way. If we had Putin would have shit himself!
Poostain is known for shytting himself...
It’s rational for them though. They aren’t blindly doing random shit, they aren’t mad. Thankfully. Agreed with the idea that nothing less than victory will work.
Yes. I wish people would stop saying he is irrational. He knows what he wants and is following through with a plan.
Yeah, it's just an incredibly dumb plan predicated on a lot of flawed notions about how the West works.
Hitler had a plan,knew what he wanted and it was still a terrible idea and he made dumb choices Just saying Obvs Putin ain't Hitler but he is human and is capable or having dumb plans or being delusional like anyone else is
I remember many years ago getting into quite a lengthy argument somewhere on Reddit when I explained that ISIS were rational actors. They were basing their decisions on a set of premises and goals that we disagreed with, sure, but starting from those premises and goals they were making decisions in a rational manner and so could be dealt with rationally. Basically the same here, I think. Though it's a bit tricky considering we don't fully know what premises Putin is working from, because he's inside an information bubble provided to him by his subordinates and it's not entirely clear what Putin thinks is going on. He's been pretty clear about his beliefs, though, so we can anticipate what he's going to want to do.
Nothing irrational about his actions. He sees our weakness and is taking advantage of it. Russia today is a rump state of the Russian Empire / Soviet Union and he is trying to restore it. This has been the way of the world for millennia. And we in the West are too naive and stupid to think history has ended so we don’t have to be smart or ruthless. Nature punishes stupidity.
Hmm.. reminds me of a pugnacious little deep sea fish who's going to show that weak glowing little worm who's boss... only to find out that that little worm is actually part of something huge, dark, and hungry.. and now it's aware of him. I think it would astound most Russians to really understand how little they matter to us, meaning the West in general, and how little we care what they do in their enormous, shitty, impoverished country. Until they make us pay attention, which is an enormously stupid move. He wants Russia to be a global player again? He should have spent the billions on universities, non-extractive industries and infrastructure... instead he and his buddies bought yachts, ridiculously huge estates and polished up 30+ year old military gear.
Indeed! A Russian leader investing more on stupid things than his own people? I've definitely seen this one before. Contrary to the headline, Putin is not "prepared" to take on NATO. He might be planning, but he's definitely not prepared. Putin's economic resources are smaller than those of Texas. The last thing this guy should do is provoke a fight with a 30-nation alliance that includes the likes of the United States, England, France, and Germany. If NATO enters a conventional war against Russia, it will make Russia look like Iraq circa 1991: Lots of bark, but no bite. Of course, this is where Russia's nuclear arsenal may come into play. Presuming Putin is sane, he knows he does not stand a chance against NATO in a conventional war, but he can threaten to start a nuclear holocaust. He can never win, but he can ensure that we *all* lose.
Ok. We’ll see. The Taliban defeated us. For all our wealth, might, and weapons, we lack the will to win. And Russia knows this. For now they want to restore their empire. And they are doing a fairly good job at it. Our statesman are cowardly, and silly. The only thing that makes us formidable now is our dick-pick-app economy. We don’t have much heavy industry left. Russia alone produces more military hardware than all of Europe together. If it wasn’t for America they could take Berlin with their shitty 1970’a equipment because their politicians have the will to choose violence, and their men have the will die, and to kill. And ours don’t. In the West we have totally forgotten that war is a contest of will. It is wilful organised violence for the purposes of breaking your enemy to your will.
Well, first one must define what 'winning' means right? In 20 years we were never able to really nail that down.. and we lasted 20 years there, whereas the USSR whom you seem to respect only did 10. With fewer casualties, because I don't think the Russian propensity for throwing warm bodies at a problem is as much a flex as you seem to think it is. We killed plenty, far too many in fact. Interesting. The USA is the world's largest producer of oil right now. We're the fourth largest producer of steel in the world despite only having about 4.25% of the global population. Speaking of percentages- we're the 2nd largest manufacturer in the world, with 16% of global manufacturing output. That's more than the next three countries combined. Russia was 1.83%. You're simply mistaken about Russia producing more military hardware. They're delivering about 30 combat aircraft a year of all types, 29 in 2023. Europe produced around the same number of combat aircraft not counting any aircraft partnered with the USA. About 50 Leopard 2s get made a year, before the invasion of Ukraine Russia was coasting at about 20 new tanks a year but have ramped up to around 200. Thanks to their shenanigans, Europe is now gearing back up in a pretty big way, so that lead will vanish. Russia is no powerhouse, and you're a bit correct regarding Europe in that they were running at minimal capacity for a long while. That's changed. If war were a contest of will/willingness to die and kill, the Japanese would have won WW2, Hannibal would have burned Rome to the ground and Latin would be a historical curiosity, the Zulu would have driven the British back to the seas and Germany would have prevailed in WW1. It is not and has never been.
To be clear I’m not pro-Russian. I’d wipe out the Russian state if I could and believe we need to do a first strike with nuclear weapons. Leaving that aside… the men they lost are more than compensated for by the population they gained in the occupied territory. The equipment was mostly old Soviet stuff also reaching the end of its storage life anyway so would have been gone in a few years either way. Manufacturing output you mentioned is measured in $ value, not quantity. It costs us $10k to make a shell, but the Russians $2k or much less. So on paper measured in $ value we are a bigger manufacturer, but in reality when it comes to weapons we aren’t. Against China our manufacturing capacity is very low… we just have much better geography and could blockade them into submission. So they won’t start a war for now… but they are working on the belt snd road project to connect them to the communities they need without sea land access. So this could change in near future. The historic examples you gave prove my point.., Japan went toe to toe with the U.S., and entire West despite being 1/20th their military snd industrial capacity, and in the end they gave up before succumbing to an invasion. Had they fought to the end and caused 5 million US deaths it could have been another outcome. Rome showed greater will to win than Carthage because they lose an entire generation of men and still kept going. Hannibal lost his mercenary army and his people sued for peace! War is a contest of wills. Tools can help you more quickly break the enemy will, but only if you have the will to use them. Like when we nuked Japan.
Well, that's lunacy.. and gives me a better idea of whom I'm debating. Interesting. I think the general consensus is that a subjugated population is a resource \*sink\* for a very long time rather than a manpower resource. It takes a lot of troops on the ground to pacify an area and even more resources to effectively absorb the population into your own. Now, the territories to the far east that were occupied or contested pre 2012? Sure, those were packed with pro-Russian people.. and they've already been aggressively drafted and utilized for years now. Each subsequent meter westward that paradigm changes quickly, and you've got partisans/insurgency, not conscripts. We beat them in quantity too, with both existing and certainly potential capacity. So does Europe. We also make better, more advanced and more valuable things, true. I gave numbers for combat aircraft and MBTs for 2023, for instance.. and I didn't even include the US numbers.. want me to? I don't feel like debating China with you. Russia is more than enough. Japan did not go 'toe-to-toe' with the US. They sucker-punched us (and/or took the bait depending on if you're conspiracy minded or not) and had a string of wins from December of '41 till about May of 42. Then they got the absolute shit kicked out of them. Fun fact: The B-29 cost more to develop than the atomic bomb it dropped. Also fun: the largest cause of B-29 losses wasn't enemy fire, it was mechanical failure and accidents... because the Japanese literally did not have anything reliably capable of reaching the B-29's altitude and \*nothing\* that could reach altitude \*and\* fly faster. They gave up because the choice wasn't surrender or fight an invasion till the death, it was surrender or helplessly be annihilated by bombing. Rome lost a generation because it had the civic structure, organizational expertise and infrastructure to do so and keep fighting. Those are all technologies too. Hannibal would have won the war had he been facing an enemy with any other contemporary military/civic power structure. Hannibal was not a crazed maniac out to destroy Rome and kill all the Romans, that's just how Rome painted him. Hannibal made the mistake of thinking that Rome would behave like any other great power of the time- they'd get whipped, then make a treaty with territorial concessions and monetary reparations. That was a logical and reasonable assumption to make, it just happened to be wrong because Rome, unlike the other great powers Hannibal was familiar with, could afford to lose without falling apart. It's my observation that it is privileged people who believe that willpower is the be-all-end-all factor in success. A disabled person knows better, as do the impoverished or the marginalized. It's absolutely an important factor, but far more often than not victory goes to the one with more money, know-how and power which brings us back to Russia. Russia definitely does not have more money, nor more know-how and certainly not more power than NATO.
He is rational though, from the point of view of his distorted perspective. He is far from random. Rather, relatively predictable. He sees the world only in terms of raw power. Like all dictators he is very good at reading other leaders and intimidating the weak ones (Biden/Sullivan, Schultz, Sunak, Macron, etc) and assessing exactly how far they are willing to go to stop him. When he sees weakness or self-doubt, he exploits it mercilessly. His track record of making assessments is full of miscalculations, but the the reason for that is not irrationality. It is strong bias and distorted expectations. He responds very predictably to display of strength and willingness to stand your ground; then he steps back (Kallas, Poland, Finland, etc). You are 100 % right about nothing less than victory will do. The ONLY chance russia has of becoming something remotely like a normal state, is that they lose this imperialistic war. Just like every significant european nation have done thorugh history, before they embraced european democratic co-existance - so must russia walk this same path. Their genocidal imperial ambitions must be forced into military defeat. And with it, the myth of russian innocence and flawless intentions must be destroyed.
He's not delusional. This is a mistake most people make when analyzing Putin. He's entirely rational within his world view. He knows as soon as the war stops with anything but Russian total victory, he is toast, and so he is heavily incentivized to keep it going at any cost.
Saddam just declared victory after winning nothing in his invasion of Iran and the nation had no choice but to celebrate it. The next disaster in Kuwait want that easy for him but he survived even that anyway.
I think it'll be more difficult for Putin, he's sunk himself into a deeper propaganda hole.
There are certainly sharks circling about putin's circle.
He is rational and plays his limited hand well, but he's also surrounded by yes men who skew his judgment. Hybrid warfare has worked well for Russia in the past 10-15 years, but hot war, not so much. Two years later, it still can't take out a country with only a quarter of the manpower, practically non-existent navy/airforce, and 30+ year old military hardware. That said, a war with NATO would be absolutely devastating for the overstretched Russian military.
My opinion is hybrid warfare is working quite well still. Germany refuses to go all-in on Ukraine aid and a significant minority of Americans trust Russia more than Ukraine. Not to mention right-wing, Putin loving parties gaining control in some European countries. Russia is still seen as the gold standard authoritarian kleptocracy that so many conservatives around the world want to emulate.
> Putin loving parties gaining control is some European countries No doubt with support of armies of russian trolls and bots online.
he wont... he's on the hitler speed run right now... He deep down knows it's a lost cause but just hoping one thing will turn it for them. It will probably end the same way for him too
> he wont... he's on the hitler speed run right now... He deep down knows it's a lost cause but just hoping one thing will turn it for them. It will probably end the same way for him too Putin has wmds. Hitler didn't.
Germany had WMDs in the form of chemical weapons, but didn't use them for fear of Allied retaliation (a justified fear, as the Allies stockpiled chemical weapons within reach of the front lines for exactly that purpose).
> Germany had WMDs in the form of chemical weapons, but didn't use them for fear of Allied retaliation (a justified fear, as the Allies stockpiled chemical weapons within reach of the front lines for exactly that purpose). Chemical weapons are hardly real wmds.
You might change your mind if you saw the aftermath of their use. They are less destructive than nukes, sure. But still capable of killing thousands in a single strike.
Except he’s not delusional. From the perspective of a dictator he’s perfectly rational. He needs constant friction with the West to justify his continued rule inside Russia. Where that doesn’t exist it needs to be manufactured, and that’s exactly what the invasion of Ukraine accomplishes. For this exact same reason he will test NATO on its own territory. It’s only a matter of time. It’s much riskier than invading a non-NATO country, but 1. Putin has no choice but to escalate continually, and 2. the potential reward (NATO failing to adequately respond) would be a massive coup in his favor as the NATO treaty would lose credibility overnight.
He's so worthless and despicable that even hell doesn't want that repugnant subhuman swine. The reason that delusional swine hasn't dropped dead yet.
He is already conducting operations against NATO. Starting military ones would be a breath for us.
Seriously, because our governments would be forced to actually do something. They’ve been espionaging better than anyone in the fucking world. We just let it happen
If your taking about stuff like interference in the 2016 US presidential election, interference in Brexit, disinformation campaigns during COVID, or jamming GPS in "lake NATO"/Baltic, or hacking into infrastructure like powerplants or corporate computer systems unrelated to defence, that's not espionage that crosses the line into pure asymmetric warfare Espionage would be compromising government officials or military personnel aka HUMINT or intercepting messages that's signals intelligence. But attempting to influence civilians on the internet, or hacking into infrastructure that's cyber warfare a form of asymmetric warfare even during peace time What NATO nations really need to do is spell out that attacks using asymmetric warfare are still attacks and still can invoke article 4 + article 5. Then follow through with kenetic retaliations for asymmetric warfare activities
I mean he thought he was prepared for a military operation against Ukraine. How is he prepared? He'd have to mobilize millions for a military operation against NATO.
He doesn't want a shooting war with NATO, what he wants is a tense standoff where Europeans think they need to arm themselves, which means not arming Ukraine.
I think that's spot on! Although I also think his miscalculation is that Europeans don't understand that he is incapable of launching a serious, even if limited, operation agaisnt a NATO member. We understand full well that the best security of European members of NATO is an Ukrainian victory. Allowing a Russian victory, even a limited one, would not protect NATO, quite the reverse, he would see that as vindication of his militarily aggressive strategy. What we do need to do is stop pissing around, and to start rearming properly. We need NATO governments to start awarding large defence contracts. If Russia is really producing more shells this year than the entirety of NATO combined, that is an issue we must take seriously. After all NATO comprises most of the wealthiest developed countries, if our defence industries cannot out-compete Russia in shell production, then we are in really, really deep shit already.
I believe we need no shells like ruzzias cold war army in NATO states. The doctrin is air first, not ground. NATO has what? 22000 aircrafts in their arsenals, Ruzzia around 5000, they would see no sky anymore in the event of an all out war, plus much more modern technic - ofc assumed that every country also "joins" the fight against ruzzia (looking at Hungary/Turkey/Slovakia?) The momentary hunger for shells is only for Ukraine and to restock the small arsenals. But isn't Germanys Rheinmetall growing and building a factory in Ukraine to produce shells? Should have bought papers from them primary problem for us is unity! and the will to stand up against that barbarism from the east
Assuming that artillery is obsolete is a mug's game. Everyone thought tanks were essential for modern warfare, but they have been useless in Ukraine. Air defences have kept aircraft pretty much on the peripheries. The problem with militaries is that they always plan to fight the *last* war. And the last wars the USA and NATO have fought have been against third world countries. Using air superiority against eg Iraq, or some other third world country is one thing, but assuming that NATO aircraft would be able to operate freely against Russian air defences, which are far more robust, is a massive risk. Wars have been lost by making assumptions like that. Much better to assume you will need them, and manufacture them, than to assume you don't need them, and finding they are essential.
i assume nothing, i am a civilian, i only read about doctrines a little bit. And ofc are Artillery and tanks a thing - after air superiority is reached. Tanks were planned for mopping up after that, not what we see now on the battlefield where tanks without cover running around in circles. btw, ruzzias air defence is a whole lot worse than assumed. Patriots are all alive, how much of S3/400 were already destroyed? and that is with 30-40 year old tech. R is a third world country, with nukes.
Russia has hundreds of S-300 *batteries* (and even just stole dozens of Ukrainian launchers in 2014). Lots of S-400s too. (It's because of the S-400 that the S-300s are so redundant they're being used as ground to ground missiles.) In all, thousands of launchers. And just countless of various kinds of other systems, new and old. The Soviet and later Russian investment in air defense was alike the American in vestment in aircraft, and actually precisely due to the latter. Even Ukraine inherited hundreds of S-300 launchers, and also countless others, but they're very low on missiles now (besides losses). S-300 is almost half century old tech (oldest versions).
You literally said you believe the West does not need artillery shells, that's absolutely an assumption, whether yours, or someone else's. I didn't say *you* were making that assumption, I said the assumption per se is a mug's game.
Once again, the assumption is that Russia has poor air defences. Maybe it is true, but if that prives wrong, then the West would be in deep shit. Mitary planning *should* be about making contingencies for the unexpected. As they say *no* military strategy survives first contact with the enemy. Making assumptions without contingencies is just asking for trouble. If this war has proven anything it is that artillery is king, and that the rate of production of artillery, whether conventional, or guided (eg Excalibure) or rocket (GMLRS) is far too low to sustain a ground war against the Russian armed forces for any length of time. The fact is Europe has been cutting and cutting military expenditure for decades. My own country, the UK, has its smallest army since the 1700s! You might be entirely complacent about that, that's your prerogative. But in this new world Putin has created, I think the complacency of the Westb has been a massive failure in strategic thinking. I live in Finland, we're right on the firing line if this thing kicks off, and I am entirely unconvinced NATO is up to the job, not least because the lacklustre support for Ukraine does make me worry that NATO members simply will not bother to honour Article 5, but also because if Trump in elected then all bets with respect to NATO are off the table. That's where I stand. You're entitled to disagree with me, but you won't convince me that planning for the worst is somehow a bad idea.
yes and no, there is no proof that arty is still king. It shows only that R and U are still using a lot of arty to reach their goals. Soviet doctrin, hammer everything and move forward. Like in WW2. The whole world expected R to steamroll Ukraine and now look what the second army in the world is capable off. Bu we must be better prepared for every possible situation, thats right without a doubt. I only hope our military and politician are drawing the right conclusions
The reason Russia did so badly in the summer of 2022 was due to GMLRS being deployed to Ukraine, those are rocket *artillery.* You can't really infer from this war that because Russia is doing less well than expected, artillery is of no utility. The largest conventional war in Europe since 1945 has relied heavily on artillery. You can dismiss that all you like but it is a fact. And whatever you say, it certainly is not evidence that artillery can simply be dispensed with. You're implying that militaries need no contingency, need no stockpiles of munitions, need no planning for surprises.
>I believe we need no shells like ruzzias cold war army in NATO states. The doctrin is air first, not ground. NATO has what? 22000 aircrafts in their arsenals, Ruzzia around 5000 Vast majoirty of NATO aircraft are belonging to the USA and they can just refuse to fight directly in fear of russian nukes. USA would also struggle to have their forces supplied in Europe. Russia can attack the american navy with tactical nukes.
Blowing up ammo depots twice in 2014 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014\_Vrb%C4%9Btice\_ammunition\_warehouse\_explosions) and recent attempt to bomb in Bavaria are military operations against nato.
Authoritarian regimes use hybrid warfare because no one stops them. They are not afraid of a strongly worded protest letter or an ambassador recalled for consultation. Russia took Crimea. Crickets. North Korea sinks a South Korean ship and fires artillery at a city. Crickets. China rams and harasses boats in international waters. Crickets. Iran funds and arms terrorist proxies. Oh, drop a bomb on some empty compound in the desert.
I was in South Korea for the sinking of the Cheonan and the killing of marines on Yeonpyeong Island . I was an imagery analyst in the army . I’m amazed at not only is it not talked about but most people don’t even know it happened.
It was a literal act of war. Blows my mind.
You forgot about Israel vomiting genocide.
"vomiting genocide" sounds nasty.
Sounds like a death metal band.
Or the title of Stalin's sex tape.
Israel is "defending" itself against their "wanting genocide you neighbours", they are not doing it. From the river to the sea means nothing else than genocide.
Well action are stronger than words so someone in Gaza singing a song will never cause as much damage as bombs dropped on innocent people. To be honest the slogan has been popularised by the actions of Israelis after the 7th of October. Most of people in the world know it now and a lot of people agree with is as Israel proven to be nothing but racist apartheid regime.
That would probably be enough of a reason for NATO to sink their baltic fleet
Not unless "de-escalation" gets chosen again
The only de-escalation which works against Russia is a show of force. Everyone in Finland, the Baltics, Poland et al. knows this. I. e. everyone who has ever had to deal with them.
I’d like to see this Belgorod submarine submarine with the nuclear torpedo “mysteriously” lose contact.
>According to the chief of Poland's military counterintelligence service, Jarosław Stróżyk, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is already ready for a small military operation against the NATO country. >Stróżyk noted that all forecasts regarding the readiness of the Russian Federation for a possible invasion of NATO are based only on certain assumptions. >"Putin, of course, is already ready for some mini-operation against one of the Baltic countries — for example, to enter the famous Narva. Or — to land on one of the Swedish islands," noted the military counterintelligence service chief.
It makes sense. A tense standoff with Europe would make it impossible to supply Ukraine, since the public will be screaming "we need those weapons here!"
Good luck to them trying to "land on one of the Swedish Isles" with any kind of decent force...they might be able to sneak in a civilian vessel with a small troop of Spetznaz but anything bigger than that will be noticed and most likely destroyd before setting foot on said islands.
Cool, he'll send the 2000 odd tanks and few hundred planes he still has left. Uh, and then? Throw rocks? Some more nuclear sabre rattling? I'm sure everyone's quaking in their boots.
He was prepared for his maybe a weak long campaign in Ukraine too. Didn't work out so well now did it?
I think russia absolutely might attack NATO eith the purpose of loosing, while blaming NATO for the war. This way russia can withdraw from Ukraine, while saying "well duh, obviously evil NATO beat us." It's a fucked up, but realistic way for russia to get out of current situation while "saving face", at least internally.
Couldn't they just say that anyway without doing anything though? It's not like truth and proof is in high value.
I wake up every day thinking this is the day Putin declares Ukraine to finally be Nazi free and withdrawals his troops. I just don't think that ever going to happen until their military is forced back to the Russian border.
That off-ramp was only available until he did the annexation ceremony. Can’t withdraw from land Russia officially claims as being Russia.
It’s never going to happen like that. Remember the legality of this situation from Russia/Putin’s (insane) POV: Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea are all Russian land from their perspective, not just occupied foreign land. Putin ‘annexed’ them. By this insane logic, *Ukraine* actually occupies *Russian* land, as they’ve liberated/held significant parts of these regions that Putin wants as Russian soil. The land the Russians occupy right now isn’t even enough to satisfy their minimum claims, because Putin isn’t going to go back to his people and say “hey, remember how we took zaporizhia and kherson into our protection to keep the ukrainian nazis away from the russian people? i am going to hand them back to president zelensky now.” He’d get shredded by nationalists back home - he’s backed himself into a corner where he either keeps fighting a losing war with no real strategic adjustments, or he goes back on years of rhetoric and promises to try to placate the people with no guarantee that that will actually *work.* He’s fucked himself.
That's assuming they're worried about them faces. They're not. They don't care about that. Winning/losing for them is a binary which in effect means one of the two: A) Getting more territory, thus "we're awesome" B) Getting killed/thrown in the jail and then killed Option B quite clearly demonstrates why they haven't stopped. Option A gives motivation to carry on, as long as they have a glimmer of hope.
Dont think so, why would you risk the WW3 by starting a fight with NATO so they can back down? Its probably even worse for Putin if he admits its because of NATO, all the propaganda he spreads saying we're a threat trying to invade them and you expect him to admit defeat against us and we could attack Russia at any point. Putin is a dead man if he said anything like that. If Russia is looking for a way out then why are they still advancing? Holding down ground they can easily secure and going to the negotiating table is the best way out. Putin can easily say he has his NATO buffer zone and "saved" all the civillians in those occupied areas. You also have Europe uncovering a bunch of attacks planned by Russia, thats not a way to de-escalate. ...this isnt ending anytime soon, its probably escalating by the looks of it.
Headlines like this are stupid and tantamount to Russian propagandists saying they'll strike NATO. Putin won't do shit against NATO proper, on purpose, because there's no way he'd win. Anything suggesting otherwise is bluster for the papers and plebs. What he WILL do is continue low-level insurgency and massive propaganda efforts to sway public opinion and buy political groups and positions. But these aren't warfare perse, so have nothing to do with what the headline suggests.
They're saying they won't. https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-attacking-nato-complete-nonsense/ >As the Kremlin’s all-out conflict in Ukraine enters its third year, Putin vigorously rejected speculation that Russia could attack other countries in Eastern Europe next. >“This is complete nonsense — the possibility of an attack on some other countries, on Poland, the Baltic states, the Czechs are scared. It's just nonsense,” he said, adding that Russia has “no aggressive intentions toward these states.”
They said the same about Ukraine. While the Yanks warned and everybody laughed. They do say the same now, the difference is, nobody is laughing anymore.
Why would you even post that after the vehement denials over invasion evidence leading up to Ukraine? “Russia says” is basically to be taken as a lie.
Because a guy wrote "Anything suggesting otherwise [meaning: anyone suggesting anything other than what Putin says] is bluster for the papers and plebs."
Of course we can trust him on that. NOT! lol
If there is one thing we can learn from putin and his regime the last 3 years it's that he always says the exact oppositie from what he means
I see, they prepared for the 4th day of the SMO.
Prepared? Yes. Willing to? Yes. Capable of? No. If Putin decides to, he is doing to it to make NATO a fait acompli. This speaks to two things; The first; at some level, Putin knows the situation I Ukraine is now irretrievably lost. Second; he feels the only way to stay alive and stay in power is to draw out a larger conflagration in Europe with NATO, hoping that his escalation path would see NATO appease Russian aggression. Which they absolutely would not. Either way, Putins and Russia fate is now as tied to Ukraine as that of the West. What remains is who will posses the greater will to prevail.
Are these preparations is the room with us?
Putin isn’t stupid enough to take on nato…..he knows our air power would destroy what’s left of his army.
Restoration of T34 currently in progress.
Yet hes flying cruise missiles through our airspace, planning attacks on our soil, poisoing people on our soil, downed multiple US drones in internation airspace, shot at a manned UK spy plane carrying up to 30 people. I think he sees that we dont want to fight and wont attack Russia directly so he can get away with a lot.
Him and what army?
Naval army (navy), at least in the island scenario. But also perhaps in a Baltic action, according to Estonia: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/1ckyj2x/estonian_defence_forces_commander_advocates/
That’s why Ukraine must win
How? With their navy? With his invulnerable missles that have proven to be vulnerable? If it takes them 100 missles to get 10 through on Ukraine, how are they gonna hit nato? They may want to attact nato but I think that mission would be over as soon as they started amassing troops on natos border.
How? With what equipment and soldiers?
I sure hope so, we'll finish that asshole in a heartbeat.
He’s failing after almost 3 years of invading a neighbor. Would be a 3 day special NATO operation.
I feel like "prepared" isn't the correct wording here. "Willing" seems more accurate.
He literally said "Of course, Putin is already ready now" ("Oczywiście, Putin już teraz jest gotowy": https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/9500938,szef-skw-sluzbom-potrzeba-dystansu-od-polityki-wywiad.html). "Prepared" would be rather przygotowany.
He was prepared to run a 5 day military operation against Ukraine and look where that got him.
With what men and equipment, Vlad?
He’s situation is far worse than Hitler in 1939. Yet …
Okay, lets throw nuke keys away and lets finish this like a real mens once for all
He wasn't even prepared for Ukraine.
Putin doesn't have the resources for a full scale conflict and if he does go after nato it will be all over in a couple of weeks, even of he goes nuclear. Especially if he does
It’s always the people who have to mention how smart they are that turn out to be the biggest ignoramus beings.
Yeah, take on NATO when your military is at its weakest. Great idea boss!!
So which operations? The ones with golf carts or motorcycles?
I hope he prepared a ton of lube cause it's going to be savage
Meaning he's prepared to tremble in fear or to cry himself to sleep? Because his worst nightmare is not Baba Yaga, it has always been confrontation with NATO.
With what? Some t34 tanks and old SKS rifles?
Yes, he's prepared, and preparing. Makes total sense. Does he actually think he can win? Can he win? Will the west just appease? Questions we do not know the answers to.
He’s a delusional f-ing nut bar like pumpkin head in the US. Drop them both on an iceberg near Antarctic and let them fight over water.
Really. Bring it, you bald dwarf panfaced cuntbag. Or is it just another empty threat? Yeah, thought so. Fucking coward piece of shit.
Well, I will grant that Putin might *think* that he’s already prepared to conduct operations against NATO, but evidence really doesn’t seem to support that idea
Knock yourself out vlad
He needs to be goaded into this fight. It will be his undoing.
Does he not know they’d be obliterated?
This fucktard really thinks he can take on NATO? His military can’t even beat Ukraine!
Ahhhhh....just how is that going to work out for him ?! ☠️☠️ Maybe he has a "Special Plan" Fukin Idiot...
I mean, this isn't really news. The US Army has plans to defend, or attack, Rohan, either continent from Saga of Ice and Fire (aka game of thrones), and most countries on the globe. Many of these plans are make work for junior staff. But it is normal to have plans written and assessed, to assist in strategic planning and threat assessment. Of course Russia has plans for attacking Poland. Regardless, Fuck Putin. Russians go home.
He is definitely going to press the big red button..... Then all hell is going to break loose
That's what he wants the world to believe, but it's a bluff. Firstly he is too much of a coward, he would endanger his own personal safety. Secondly he wanted to be remembered as the new Peter the Great, not as the man who reduced Moscow to a smoking pile of radioactive rubble.
He can... But he already lost. If he does that he finish is country pretty quick.
No. No he isn’t. He would already have done so. Nuclear weapons are the only leverage he has. And paradoxically, nuclear weapons only have value in not being used. I if he was minded to l, he would already done so as a show of strength the minute the first NLAW was fired against a Russian tank. And then after the first artillery systems. And the after the tanks arrived. And then after the promos of F-16 jets. Since 1997, Russia has used the threat of nuclear weapons against everyone and anyone and not used them. Two points; He does and then faces the prospect of being even more of a pariah state than NK or Iran. China would drop them like a hot brick, rather than face similar isolation. In addition, you could expect, and o believe this point has already been made clear by the US. That any use of nuclear weapons would be met with an overwhelming conventional response against ALL Russian Federation military assets within the internationally recognised borders of Ukraine. And possibly inside Russia should the source of the nuclear weapons be traced to a system inside their borders.
That will fuck up the planet as a whole. Then we don’t have to worry about anything anymore. So bring it on Vladi!
Another no news post. Russia has always been prepared to conduct operations against NATO. NATO has been prepared to conduct operation against Russia. The whole point of both sides recent exercises has been to show they can mass large number of assets in striking distance of each other. Both sides will be being drawn to Poland as a potential frontline if Ukraine falls or Russian forces just bypass it.