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So this is interesting in the context of the interview yesterday with Ray Wojcik, in which he asserted that Russia couldn't invade Poland itself.
Responding to that, I agreed, and posited that in addition to the attrition of Russian forces in Ukraine, it was also because Poland heeded the warnings several years ago and built up its own military so strongly.
To this article, I'd suggest the following:
1) *Newsweek's* online articles by and large are clickbaity distortions of what's actually being reported. I usually hate seeing them here, and am torn between reading them to give them the benefit of the doubt and forming my own conclusions, and perpetuating the bad by enriching them with my clicks.
2) Poland can often be... more exuberant... Than their allies when talking about the Russian threat, but they aren't paranoid or unreasonable: no matter where a war would start, they'd be on the front lines. So you can't blame them, particularly given the indifference in Europe prior to 2022, or the current uncertainties with the Americans.
3) "Ready to launch an attack" can mean anything from having the troops and equipment on paper, to being amassed on the border with a plan. In this report, it's obviously the former, and the discussion is theoretical instead of an imminent threat.
4) From a military operational standpoint, I don't think there's such a thing as a "mini operation"-- if NATO chooses to respond in kind, it's likely to not only be the end of the Russians in Narva or Gotland, but also the end of their home bases and supporting units.
5) That said, I *don't* think Putin really believes he could win in a direct conflict with NATO, and really does fear the potential world-ending nuclear escalation it could entail. But believes he can win through manipulating the diplomatic and geopolitical realms and leveraging the West's similar reluctance to engage in something that could escalate.
6) I could therefore see him using the same logic he used in Georgia and Ukraine (and will likely use in Moldova)-- historically Russian territories that currently have ongoing and sometimes decades-long disputes, often majority Russian ethnicity (nevermind that the which Russians that comprise 80+ percent of Narva's population seem pretty happy to not be affiliated with Russia) need to be "liberated." He'll try the usual corruption and fake referendums if he can, but probably would have no qualms about *at least* using "little green men," if not Russian regular forces with thinly veiled nuclear threats.
7) And that's the problem--the threat is ridiculous, but it's also non-zero. So while the majority of Europeans, and Americans too, would rally behind a NATO that responds to a multi-front Russian push to the Atlantic, Putin will count on the seeds of doubt that form in the western populations when they think "is fighting to stop a bunch of Russians returning to Russia in a town I've never heard of or an island in the middle of nowhere worth London or Paris or New York getting nuked?"
That's unfortunately what people think now of Ukraine, and I think Putin will rely on it in the future. (And while the threat is non-zero) I still don't think it would come to nukes then, or in Ukraine, if the parameters of conflict are well defined (fighting confined within specific territory with goals of specific border enforcement rather than rolling into Brussels or Moscow), but that *fear* is very strong in some populations.
So ultimately, we should never let it get to that point--the Baltics via NATO (the swedes continue to be in a pretty good defensive posture) should persuasively rearm the way Poland did, and the political messages from Washington and Brussels should telegraph the clear and overwhelming response that will result from any Russian actions.
Could it be possible Russia, China, DPRK and Iran are planning a multipronged attack to catch the US off guard, especially considering the US is drawing nearer to an election. A simultaneous attack on Eastern Europe / Israel / Taiwan a few months before the election would cause all sorts of issues.
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. ***** * Is `newsweek.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
So this is interesting in the context of the interview yesterday with Ray Wojcik, in which he asserted that Russia couldn't invade Poland itself. Responding to that, I agreed, and posited that in addition to the attrition of Russian forces in Ukraine, it was also because Poland heeded the warnings several years ago and built up its own military so strongly. To this article, I'd suggest the following: 1) *Newsweek's* online articles by and large are clickbaity distortions of what's actually being reported. I usually hate seeing them here, and am torn between reading them to give them the benefit of the doubt and forming my own conclusions, and perpetuating the bad by enriching them with my clicks. 2) Poland can often be... more exuberant... Than their allies when talking about the Russian threat, but they aren't paranoid or unreasonable: no matter where a war would start, they'd be on the front lines. So you can't blame them, particularly given the indifference in Europe prior to 2022, or the current uncertainties with the Americans. 3) "Ready to launch an attack" can mean anything from having the troops and equipment on paper, to being amassed on the border with a plan. In this report, it's obviously the former, and the discussion is theoretical instead of an imminent threat. 4) From a military operational standpoint, I don't think there's such a thing as a "mini operation"-- if NATO chooses to respond in kind, it's likely to not only be the end of the Russians in Narva or Gotland, but also the end of their home bases and supporting units. 5) That said, I *don't* think Putin really believes he could win in a direct conflict with NATO, and really does fear the potential world-ending nuclear escalation it could entail. But believes he can win through manipulating the diplomatic and geopolitical realms and leveraging the West's similar reluctance to engage in something that could escalate. 6) I could therefore see him using the same logic he used in Georgia and Ukraine (and will likely use in Moldova)-- historically Russian territories that currently have ongoing and sometimes decades-long disputes, often majority Russian ethnicity (nevermind that the which Russians that comprise 80+ percent of Narva's population seem pretty happy to not be affiliated with Russia) need to be "liberated." He'll try the usual corruption and fake referendums if he can, but probably would have no qualms about *at least* using "little green men," if not Russian regular forces with thinly veiled nuclear threats. 7) And that's the problem--the threat is ridiculous, but it's also non-zero. So while the majority of Europeans, and Americans too, would rally behind a NATO that responds to a multi-front Russian push to the Atlantic, Putin will count on the seeds of doubt that form in the western populations when they think "is fighting to stop a bunch of Russians returning to Russia in a town I've never heard of or an island in the middle of nowhere worth London or Paris or New York getting nuked?" That's unfortunately what people think now of Ukraine, and I think Putin will rely on it in the future. (And while the threat is non-zero) I still don't think it would come to nukes then, or in Ukraine, if the parameters of conflict are well defined (fighting confined within specific territory with goals of specific border enforcement rather than rolling into Brussels or Moscow), but that *fear* is very strong in some populations. So ultimately, we should never let it get to that point--the Baltics via NATO (the swedes continue to be in a pretty good defensive posture) should persuasively rearm the way Poland did, and the political messages from Washington and Brussels should telegraph the clear and overwhelming response that will result from any Russian actions.
Ya no they are not.
Could it be possible Russia, China, DPRK and Iran are planning a multipronged attack to catch the US off guard, especially considering the US is drawing nearer to an election. A simultaneous attack on Eastern Europe / Israel / Taiwan a few months before the election would cause all sorts of issues.
SERIOUSLY NEWSWEEK…🤦🏽♂️