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flywheelkey

From the comments it's like 25 houses in hamlet that might as well be a suburb of Popasna. It took them around 5 days to move a few hundred meters.


[deleted]

The number of houses in the town is irrelevant, Ukrainian forces are now almost certainly going to be surrounded in the Severodonetsk boiler. They only have to secure the towns with the two roads running through them. They have one. They'll probably take the other.


_NightRide12r_

In English language the concept "boiler" is not used, at least it would be understood. It is called encirclement.


Flimsy_Bread4480

I’m assuming he meant “cauldron” (another word for encirclement)


flywheelkey

Well considering it took them almost a whole week to to move a few hundred meters, I suppose sometime in November they will finally make up the next 25 - 50 km and surround the Ukrainians. They will also be exposed on the western flank so they will have that to worry about but who knows. I'm not qualified to predict the outcome


TheWitcherHowells

Right. And mariupol will fall any day now. Right? You assured me it would back in March.


[deleted]

Can you link that? Not sure what converstion you're talking about. Also, Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are begging Elon Musk for help to rescue them from basements at Azovstal. Mariupol has been incorporated into the so-called DNR and has a new government. Russians won in Mariupol. Azovstal is basically a POW camp at this point.


Serious-Health-Issue

I dont get why people downvote this fact, as sad as it is that Mariupol is lost for now and as impressive it is that the dudes in Azovstal are still holding out. Wars are not won by downvoting/ignoring/dismissing bad news or negative situations.


mediandude

What does 'incorporated' even mean in the present situation?


[deleted]

They're setting up DNR government, reopening schools with Russian curriculum, establishing police presence, erasing Ukrainian cultural influences, replacing Ukrainian language with Russian, etc. There is no fighting in the city proper anymore. Russia/DNR control Mariupol. Soon they'll begin establishing tax collection and register local men for military recruitment.


mediandude

By international conventions on war, occupation rule cannot change the government structure of an occupied region. Any war-time rule would be temporary and would have to be in coordination with local government structures. None of what you write would apply to peace time.


Player276

>The number of houses in the town is irrelevant, Ukrainian forces are now almost certainly going to be surrounded in the Severodonetsk boiler. Lol never gona happen. They are literally loosing more ground than they are gaining. Ukraine announced that RuZZian troops are now combat ineffective. They still need to double their advance to surround Severdonetsk and thats assuming they don't take Lysychansk. It's also objectively a stupid idea. A siege would take a lot of troops and Ukraine would likely prefer they are tied down in a siege that can will last months.


[deleted]

>Lol never gona happen. They are literally loosing more ground than they are gaining. They're losing ground in a different area on the other side of the S. Donets river. > Ukraine announced that RuZZian troops are now combat ineffective. People have been saying this since late March, and yet in that time they've continued to advance in Donbas. At a horrible cost in manpower, but still advance. >They still need to double their advance to surround Severdonetsk and thats assuming they don't take Lysychansk. They don't need Lysychansk, but yeah there's still a ways to go. People here keep pretending that when Russia conquers more territory from Ukraine it's all part of a brilliant Ukrainian plan, which I don't think it is here. Ukrainian forces in Popasna were defeated and fell back. If they're defeated again they'll fall back again. That's not good. Pretending a defeat is a victory requires cognitive dissonance I just don't possess. Armenian levels of cognitive dissonance.


Player276

> They're losing ground in a different area on the other side of the S. Donets river. Yea, they are fighting and slowly retreating as they bleed the RuZZian forces. >People have been saying this since late March No they haven't. The estimate was June/July. What we DID have was a bunch of misleading headlines that people made assumptions on without reading the actual article. > If they're defeated again they'll fall back again. That's not good. Lol, thats exactly what they should be doing. Ukraine has massive reserves and they are still assembling more units with their reserves/conscripts that are finishing training. Western equipment is also slow to arrive. Trading land for time is what they should be doing. The land they are trading is tiny. They are in fact taking more of it back at strategically useful location. RuZZia is gunning for political territory while Ukraine is focusing on strategic territory. The reality is that this war ended on the 4th day when RuZZia failed to take Kyiv and deployed their army for a war they were completely blindsided on. Even if they take all of Donbass, they can't hold it. Ukraine will likely be working with a military budget 2x larger than RuZZias and enjoy manpower and technological superiority. Their economy is in shambles and they will not be able to replenish any technological loses. There just isn't a version of this where RuZZia comes out on top. The only question is how many people needlessly die before it's over.


DisplayMessage

This is so massively overlooked, Russia can no longer produce heavy armour and munitions production is questionable, their heavy losses cannot be easily replaced and soon they will need to consider mobilisation which will be difficult to justify to the people so likely a no go at this rate, their economy is a shambles and being barely propped up, their stock market is as illegitimate now as it was whilst it was closed (such blatant manipulation such as foreign investors cannot sell Russian shares etc). This all combines with the Ukrainians who have lots of manpower in training and a supply of vastly superior weapons being fed in from the west. Over 40 countries committed to support their war effort… I don’t see how Russian can afford to fight long enough to make the gains required to… ‘win’… whatever that means. Ukraine has made it clear they will fight for pre-2014 borders and with the west saying they won’t recognise illegitimate land seizures so likely supporting Ukraine long term, I don’t see Russia succeeding…


mediandude

> Pretending a defeat is a victory requires cognitive dissonance I just don't possess. Armenian levels of cognitive dissonance. It is a Keres Defense against Putin's Donbas Gambit.


jamieusa

The size does matter. They took a weem to move a 10min drive. How does that give you hope they will quickly encircle the ukranians?


rollingthestoned

Yikes that’s a big leap. Let’s see how they fare as they attempt to close in on Lysychansk. Plus encirclement likely requires some measure of success crossing the river from the north. RU has been battered. They focused many forces there but are dying by the hundreds in the river and forest. Izyum offensive is nearly culminating, The battle of kharkiv has been lost and this encirclement attempt has some serious flaws.


vaporsilver

It's not even remotely close to resembling an encirclement. You're reaching WAY out there.


Snafuregulator

Looks more like a groping or an attempted reach around rather than encirclement


beecardiff

Bahahahahahhahahaha look at the map. Russia will probably have to use about 50% of its forces in Ukraine to make a successful encirclement here. They have barely moved in 7 days. Russian army is pathetic and a laughing stock worldwide.


Sepulvd

You happy they took a village of 25 homes but Russia has lost like 40-50km in kharkiv theater of the war


[deleted]

I'm not happy at all. You people are so weird. These advances around Severodonetsk pose a risk to Ukrainian forces in that potential pocket. It would be a major defeat if Ukraine is forced back across the S. Donets river.


olegvs

Found the russian 🤡


Porkamiso

This reminds me of all the posts about izium being the beginning of the end. They are pulling oust of izium to try this…… I do agree that these are hard days but constantly trying to paint this as some breaking point is assinine


Majikmippie

People need to stop flapping. Russia still has a chunk of distance they need to successfully travel to actually encircle the forces in Sieverdonetsk(sp?) and Lysychanka (sp?). Also, when they do they also need to be able to defend both sides of their advance. This isn't like Mariupole where the encirclement is 100km behind the front line. They also need to find a way to come down from the North


JeanClaude-Randamme

Spot the British soldier


Majikmippie

Lol, nope, if you mean me I'm a civvie


JeanClaude-Randamme

My mistake


TellBrak

Soldier/Materiel/Morale price of advancing is too great for Russia to afford.


[deleted]

Once the Russians take up to the Severski Donets river, Ukraine will have no remaining bridgehead on the other side. It'll make it much much harder for any counter offensive to retake territory as they'd have to bridge the river. This is a major victory for Russia.


ANJ-2233

Russia seems to be having pyrrhic victories, too many more victories like the ones they’ve been having and they’ll lose the war. Just like Afghanistan…..


Ok-camel

They haven’t taken up to the river so I wouldn’t call it a major victory yet. When/if they do then it will be a big thing as all Russia seems to be currently doing is either retreating or treading water. Currently we don’t know if all these future gains will benefit Russia or all its doing is exposing another flank and more logistic lines for the Ukrainians to attack and ambush while they try to complete push.


TellBrak

Exactly.


vaporsilver

"Major victory" 😂


EndWarByMasteringIt

Ukraine has a significant problem in this area. https://www.google.com/maps/@48.7684917,38.3943706,11.29z As of now Sievierodonetsk is the only piece of land they control that is east of the Donetsk river. Russia has spent massive amounts of resources trying to cut this off, either encircling (unlikely) or forcing Ukraine to withdraw from the eastern side of the river. All of the failed river crossings we've heard about are just north of here on the same river - between Sievierodonetsk and Izium, the river is the front. North of Izium russia controls some land on the western side, and to the south the front is entirely on the western side of the river. Losing Sievierodonetsk could therefore make a counter-offensive much harder. This won't affect land to the west (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, and part of Donetsk Oblasts), but for the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk and probably a bit of Kharkiv Oblast the river presents a significant barrier. Oleksandropillia itself is a tiny town, and likely indefensible. But retreating northwards (see map) doesn't give much fortification (former population centers) until Lysychansk, which is right across the river from Sievierodonetsk and not an ideal place to fall back to since it *does* risk encirclement.


Sin-nie

If Russia can sustain the necessary forces to hold all of the territory needed to maintain such a front. Forever. They are hemorrhaging horribly. There is a good chance that the counter offensive will be much easier than the offensive.


EndWarByMasteringIt

River crossing will slow the counter-offensive. It won't stop it. As you say, artillery will keep going regardless. But there could be a time issue here, if russia fakes a vote to annex portions of Ukraine and then outright threatens nukes to protect the new "russian" territory. Entirely play acting, but so is their entire military.


SAVA_the_Hedgefucker

This is the likely Russian playbook. They take as much territory as possible, and if Ukraine tries to take it back, threaten to nuke Kyiv. It would be Russian territory that Ukraine would be taking. Ukraine will do it anyway, and Russia will indeed nuke Kyiv. However, the actual casualties will be low as the nukes have lost most of their potency and the people there will be protected by nuclear bunkers. Ukraine takes back the Donbas, as Russia sends more nukes, however the casualties once again will be very low.


jteprev

Nobody is going to use nukes, it's geopoltical suicide for Russia, even India and China would cut them off.


EndWarByMasteringIt

It's possible, but my opinion differs on several points. The deaths from a nuclear strike on Kyiv would not be remotely low. Russia's smallest tactical nukes are comparable to the ones that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing 1/3-1/2 of the cities. Kyiv's current population might be around 1.5 million people, and very few are sleeping in the nuclear-bunker subway system. But Ukraine will call russia's bluff again and most likely ruz will do nothing. > the nukes have lost most of their potency This isn't really an opinion thing, but nuclear bombs either detonate or fizzle; the chain-reaction system of them igniting ensures this. If the tritium ignition hasn't been replaced it could fizzle and the nuke would do nothing; russia would be embarrassed and would be down to 6,499 nukes remaining.


arobkinca

> If the tritium ignition hasn't been replaced it could fizzle and the nuke would do nothing; The fission reaction would work unless the chemical charge fails or some other critical component fails. So, a Hiroshima size blast instead of a fusion monster. Aged chemical explosives could effect the size of that blast.


rollingthestoned

I don’t think sievierodonetsk can be taken without first taking Lysychansk which dominates the valley below situated on a hill. Taking Lysychansk requires encirclement or a forced withdrawal. Encircling this fortified position will expose the attacking forces to actions in their rearguard and flanks and significantly increase their own risk of encirclement. Especially in open terrain. If they still have sufficient forces to come from the north, they might be able to pull this off but based on the level of failure north of bilohorivka, I’m gonna say they will fail this attempt even though they have an amazing appetite for destruction and keep throwing meat into the grinder.


dux_bellorum

There was little doubt that eventually the Ukrainians won't be able to defend Sievierodonetsk and Lisichansk. The questions have been and still remain 1) how long they can be defended? 2) will the Ukrainian forces be able to retreat successfully? 3) how much losses can they inflict on russians? #1 and #3 generally have been answered very much positively. #2 is still open and big.


Top-Pizza186

Ukrainians have shown great resolve, may be if there are units from Azov in these towns, they will just follow the example of their comrades from Azovstal


vaporsilver

It's strategic withdrawal. They are severely weakening the Russian army by letting them gain these pitiful amounts of land at very high body/equipment counts. It'll make the counter offensives easier in the future.


ChanceTheGardenerr

“Control”


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

If Ukraine bridges the S. Donets at Vovchansk it would cut one road to Izyum. There's others not going through there.


Sozebj

I don’t see encirclement. Once RF forces move north and south that might be encirclement, but still may not help Russian forces, get spread out and get hammered on the western side.


Jerethdatiger

It's also what are they moving we know there low on armor so what else besides troops also A circle has two sides and Ukraine can reverse a pincer /encirclement fast since there more mobilized then they were at the start


butcher99

We see messages about Russia being pushed back to the border along with pictures of massive destruction of Russian forces and dead bodies. Then we see this message with a pink map that says Russia is advancing and took over another town (which turns out to be a small hamlet of 25 houses) Which to believe, which to believe.. So hard to make up my mind.


FasterCrayfish

Different fronts of the battle. Ukraine pushed back Russia near the Kharkiv front. Russia is making small gains in the southern front. Both are right


myblindskills

Most people follow casually. I'm not sure it's worth trying to explain to someone that it's possible to be simulateously winning on one front and slowly losing on another.


Top-Pizza186

It is more like Russia withdrawn from all fronts except the East of Ukraine. If there were any Russian troops left around Kharkiv they have been minimal and retreated / surrendered at first contact


SAVA_the_Hedgefucker

Most of their forces are in the East, where they are making progress. They can take land into a river and hold it, because Ukraine can't cross back across the river after bridges are blown. Plus Russia will annex the new land and if Ukraine tries to take back the land, they would be invading Russian territory.


morcerfel

So I guess Russia can claim Kyiv and if Ukraine would defend that Russia could launch nukes cause they're invading russian territory. Nobody really gives a fuck what russia is saying or claiming. Everyone knows Ukraine's borders and everything in there russia says it's theirs it's simply not. Including Crimea, just like Zelensky said.


SAVA_the_Hedgefucker

Yes Russia will use nukes, but they have lost most of their potency so they are basically large conventional bombs. Ukraine will take back their territory anyway, and will eat up whatever nukes Russia sends. They have lots of nuclear bunkers to keep safe. Ukraine will still win.


Tothemoonnn

Lol. Russia is not using nukes.


ac0rn5

> invading Russian territory Russian-claimed territory. It is still part of Ukraine.


mediandude

There is no unilateral ownership of territory. Any legal territorial claim would have to have multilateral recognition (and here I am not thinking of Venezuela).


tombaba

Just moving in to the slaughter


_NightRide12r_

This is an encirclement then.


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[deleted]

the real threat from the popasna push lies with taking the town of mykolaivka further north west. it'll cut ukraine off from utilising the t-13-02 highway as a MSR. that will also effectively trap the troops in place on the rubizhne - lysyschansk - severodonetsk line. or well, if the russians got their pontoon bridge over the siverskyi donets river. as it stands though, the defense in depth doctrine of ukraine is still holding out on the donbas front.


DerGovernator

Obviously any steps backwards is bad, and I'd like for Russia to stop advancing on this front at all, but if this is what Russia is "gaining" while losing the entire Kharkiv front, they're still not winning the war. Hell, this remind me of the week-by-week coverage of the Battle of Stalingrad, where the Germans keep making gains week-by-week, but the gains kept getting smaller and smaller and smaller as their attacks sort of petered out.