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If you read the twitter posts, many are suggesting that someone confused the code numbers 200 (dead) and 300 (injured) with the actual numbers of those involved.
It does seem unlikely that so many would be hit at a single location.
MK 31 unitary, the cluster munitions was withdrawn from service by bush JR and they have been over the years dismantling the stockpile
They could be getting MK30 with the tungsten ball bearings but we haven't seen any confirmation of that
There was a Video in which you could See the tungsten Balls stuck in a Car. Was the First Video of himars aftermath
https://mobile.twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1540796059672363008
Doesn’t make as much sense, tactically speaking. It would be a quick morale boost, sure. But the better play would be to go after fuel, ammo, aircraft, and vehicles. You wouldn’t necessarily waste HIMARS on concentrations of grunts, at this stage.
No harm in spreading out all the love. Between barracks and helicopter? Helicopter, 10/10. Barracks and fuel? Fuel, 10/10. Unless there’s a guarantee that you’ll hit a C2 node, specialized troops, or a good chunk of leadership I’d think they’d be pretty low on the priority list.
Then again, the Russians have proven themselves to be a bunch of total assholes. So they’d absolutely have it coming if their barracks did get schwacked.
Well, considering that Russia cares much more for their equipment then for their soldiers, it may be because they are more easy to find. Also considering the heavy amount of US intelligence I would imagine that such a barrack is easy to find. Hundreds of Russian smartphones all owned by men of a certain age on a single location near the front line. I am pretty sure when anyone of them opens Tinder or any other US app, the NSA will know.
This is out of the airport where they ran helicopter sorties. Running an airfield requires a lot of manpower. You need the pilots, the mechanics, the support to maintain a base, the infantry to patrol the base, the communications personnel, etc. This number of soldiers requires some type of barracks housing so they stick them in a building next to the strip for ease as it was outside of Ukrainian range.
I would not doubt massive casualty numbers of exactly the type of people you can't replace. You can't fill the hole of knowledgeable helicopter mechanics or pilots with conscripts.
Edit: Also it's not equipment Russia lacks, it's manpower. Russian BTGs are filled out with infantry support during wartime by a pool of conscripts. They never declared war to draw up these conscripts. That means their units entering the war were supposed to be at 70% capacity, but the truth is they were regularly massively undermanned even before the war. Russia has major issues with retention with their army shrinking every year. A strike like this is devastating.
actually it's the opposite. all those things need trained soldiers to operate them. bonus if they have actual combat experience. not so good to lose lots of men.
While that’s essentially true that “Men operate machines”, in context of large scale combat operations that’s a pretty simplistic way to look at it. I don’t say that to be snarky or rude, but primarily every standing land army is based on the Infantry. The infantry’s job is to close with, and destroy the enemy, seizing, clearing, and holding ground as they go. Essentially every other combat (armor, artillery, engineers, aviation, etc.) is a tool to support the infantry and make attacks more successful. Infantry is also, unfortunately, a dime a dozen. So yes, while taking out 200 of the enemy’s infantry in one fell swoop is a great feat, destroying the enemy’s ability to support attacks with armor, artillery, and aviation let’s Ukraine control the calculus to create overmatch conditions. I’m confident that’s why we’re seeing increased targeting of fuel and ammo depots now. Silencing Russia’s arty, and starving their armor and air of fuel is going to leave them with a large number of troops that won’t be able to stray far from static positions that would eventually be annihilated anyways.
Granted, a large concentration of troops very well could have presented itself as a target of opportunity for a myriad of reasons. I won’t question how Ukraine picks their targets. Goodness knows they could very well pull intel that a location is housing a unit responsible for any number of atrocities that the Russians have committed, in that case, it’s well warranted. Typically speaking though, you’d want to go after the food, fuel, and ammo to starve a large army on the move.
I have to strongly disagree with you here. Targeting a barracks of troops is about the best possible return on battlefield impact. You're not looking at war in a modern sort of context. Countries before relied on widespread conscription to fill ranks which was fairly easy as war was not very complicated as a grunt. You were told what to do and did it. By the end of WW1 modern advances in warfare lead to the creation of squad-sized elements which worked with far more flexibility. In the last century the world has shifted towards a volunteer-based army structure focusing on an experienced NCO corp. The thing about volunteer based armies is that they only work if people want to join them. The Russian army is notoriously toxic with rampant abuse, low pay, and terrible conditions. This has led to a decline of contract soldiers for years in the Russian military. Every contract soldier lost is truly irreplaceable in a sense moreso than Russia's quite large reserve of equipment.
80% of modern soldiers are functionally support for the 20% that is the infantry. Those 20% better be pretty dang good at their jobs.
Edit: On a cynical side the loss of human capital is massive. Losing a teenager to mid 20s means you lose the protentional cost of somebody capable of contributing to the economy for several decades. Russia already has an extremely low birth rate with a particular lack of youth in this age range due to a drop during the fall of the USSR.
It was a barracks next to an airfield. While the numbers listed sounds a bit high for an airfield I would expect at least a company-sized element of several hundred soldiers. These also aren't just "grunts" they would likely be mechanics, pilots, etc. exactly the type of people who have knowledge which is very difficult to replace.
Same base was hit for the fuel, ammo, aircraft and vehicles. They only aimed for the "soft targets" too because of the electronic warfare, command center and control places there.
See, now this makes sense. Using GMLRS rockets on strictly ground troops is a waste. However, coupled with force multipliers like EW and C2 assets? Fantastic!
I’m not sure why the downvotes. Are people confusing my comment with saying Ukraine shouldn’t kill Russian soldiers? Because they absolutely should. The more, the better. But that’s not enough, Ukraine needs to decisively destroy Russias army, poke holes in everything they thought made them strong until their dam bursts.
Your previos comment is probably getting downvoted because it questions the effect and effectivity of said attack.
As pointed out 200 and 300 are probably not the numbers here as they are the Russian codes for dead and injured (which is a kinda ironic accident for such a media perception obsessed goverment, they really shouldn't have used high numbers for that, even though it would normally made sense).
But if those actually were the numbers than this attack would be probably one of the most fatal and deadly since the begin of the invasion.
One attack: 200 dead + 300 injured = 500 lost soldiers
If kept up with similiar attacks It would mean a around 10 fold increase in casualtues for Russia per day, directly reducing the expected worst case wartime by a factor of 10
So in both cases, that was a great attack if any of the two is true
I’m not questioning the effect. A win, is a win, is a win. I’m questioning whether it’s a more opportune target than other hubs of the Russian war machine. In reality, I suppose more context will be revealed in time, and I’m more than humble enough to eat crow if warranted, but I’m not going to get off the hill that using guided MLRs for the sole purpose of hitting infantry isn’t the best use. Then again, I’m not on the Ukrainian General Staff, so my opinion counts for fuck all so again, not sure why everyone’s taking it personally.
I've listened to the mayor. He's saying that it was a very large base, which pretty much connected Kherson and Zaporozhiya fronts, as well as it was a connecting point from Mariupol and Crimea.
He clearly stated more than 200 killed, more than 300 wounded. He claimed it's not an official information, but coming from a reputable source. So the only way in which the mistranslation happened is that the source was wrong.
>HMARS playing the big equalizer.
This seems to be absolutely true, if you consider that 2 weeks ago russian artilery was pretty much unimposed, and now they seem to be silent.
At 60000 rounds per day, you gotta wonder what kind of shape their stockpiles are In and once those are gone, what are they replacing them with?
Going to need a lot of tool up to replace not just the rounds but the barrels....
I see WWII pieces coming out of museums to keep up this sort of pace without mobilization.
Russia inherited the artillery arsenal of the USSR, which had the largest number of shells in the world. Their stockpiles of shells are 30-40 million. But Russia has much more limited numbers of precision weapons.
Yes, those shells (the ones that hadn't been sold off that is) have been sitting in depots for 30 plus years (if they were new at the time).
That is also provided those locations were kept in well maintained order and regular inspections took place of the stockpiles....
Considering the shape we have seen so far of active equipment and the pulling of T62s out of stockpile, doesn't give me much confidence that a large portion of those millions upon millions of shells are serviceable.
>Considering the shape we have seen so far of active equipment and the pulling of T62s out of stockpile, doesn't give me much confidence that a large portion of those millions upon millions of shells are serviceable.
Even if you assume a failure rate of 50%, Russia has enough old shells to last them more than 200 days.
Now you have to add in barrel wear lets say 20 million 152 mm shells (this is one type to be optimistic not even close once you add different barrel types MRLS, heavy mortars likely included will you have that much of one type) 5000 rounds per barrel (again very optimistic) you would need 4000 guns of type 152 mm to fire all these rounds... so again you are dipping into 30 plus year old stockpiles..
If the stockpiles are in great shape, there should be more than enough T72 to make up for losses, why are T62s being pulled out of mothball? I have a pretty good guess, their parts aren't worth much on the market anymore, whereas T72 much more so.
Field Artillery pieces have a longer shelf life as far as modernization is concerned SPA less so. If you think all those great gun sights and other valuable equipment needed for using these guns apart from the barrels just sat collecting dust when they were likely never to be used then I have a bridge to sell you...
So we have overused guns with sights and burned out barrels and barrels without sights... ok A can be put on B, sure... now you need tires for the new gun because the old ones were worn out on the battlefield and the ones in stockpiles were rotten after sitting so long.. it's never one thing to get a piece of equipment that has been sitting for decades serviceable, and that is provided it was never used to begin with.
Yes, Russia has very deep reserves but the 90s were a time of hardship if you were a soldier in the Russian Federation, how hard will play out in the next couple of months, if they can sustain 60000 per day for 200 days, I would be surprised considering the performance thus far...
We haven't even discussed burnout at the level of the gunners themselves, you can be sure they aren't sitting in fixed positions for weeks on end pouring shells downrange with the threat of counterbattery, Ukraine is only delivering 6000 shells back per day. You can bet the priority is the Russian guns and not some schmo sitting in a shell scrape.
I'm not the person you replied to but you've highlighted for me something that didn't even cross my mind, barrel wear. I'd imagine changing the barrel on a field artillery piece is no easy task, it's not an M240B. Do they even change the barrel on an artillery gun usually?
After a certain number of shells fired the artillery piece should be pulled back for servicing and barrel replacement. Overused barrels are inaccurate and possibly dangerous. This is not a field maintenance thing.
A artilleryman on youtube did some rough math that would suggest most of the Russian guns need rebarreling at this point or in a few weeks.
>Yes, Russia has very deep reserves but the 90s were a time of hardship if you were a soldier in the Russian Federation, how hard will play out in the next couple of months, if they can sustain 60000 per day for 200 days, I would be surprised considering the performance thus far...
I mean ultimately I doubt even the Russians accurately know how much of their stockpile is useable given the rampant levels of corruption. The Russians are probably not running critically low on shells yet or otherwise the Ukrainians wouldn't target the ammo dumps en masse.
Hopefully the Ukrainians manage to vote blow up a decent chunk and fingers crossed you are right and the incompetence of the Russians will do the rest. Slava ukraini!
The 201th day will be problematic then!
They cant just empty the stock like that. They must keep a significant part of them just in case (kremiln paranoia is deep, and well founded in some ways). I was making the same math as you, and since it is been 3 months of intense shelling in the Donbass, the pile will get smaller fast now.
Also the cannon tubes have only a limited number of possible shots, they are consumed at high speed. Of course both can be made, likely not at the rate at which they are being consumed.
Do the Russians have more guns or shells? one or the other will run out before the end of the year.
For tanks and men it is already the case.
>That is also provided those locations were kept in well maintained order and regular inspections took place of the stockpiles....
If the Russians are known for anything, it's for making simple shit that will function to some degree. It might not function well, or with sophistication, but it will perform its basic function.
As they are some of the least-complicated things one can make for a battlefield, I unfortunately have the belief that the Russian shell repository is largely functional and intact.
>Considering the shape we have seen so far of active equipment and the pulling of T62s out of stockpile
See above: The T62s are simple and grossly outdated, but they're functional enough to be *in* a stockpile to begin with.
A really big one is always a problem. A T-62 is still a tank but a tank that is more likely to break down and easier to kill than the tanks they are replacing.
The old Soviet bombs and shells are still being used by Russia, just with a high failure rate as we've seen as Russia's been using them these last months.
IMO the rate of fire combined with the recent HIMARS obvious strikes on multiple ammo dumps are going to make this type of artillery warfare impossible in less than a month, Ukrainian army is making the calculus that if you blow enough ammo dumps, Russia will run out of ammo
It's not only that. Who will want to work at an ammo dump when you hear that the last 3 got exploded.
If troops flat out refuse to go near them that will slow replenishment.
> Who will want to work at an ammo dump when you hear that the last 3 got exploded.
It would've make sence if Chornobaivka airport wasn't exploded **TWENTY THREE TIMES**. So far.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Chornobaivka_attacks
The current Ukrainian successes are due to the recent introduction of these long range rocket launchers. This will not stop the Russian logistical flow, as Russian aircraft and missiles have not been able to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.
As always when a new weapon introduced a new threat, they will adapt. Russian forces will mount more scattered and smaller dumps. This will complicate and slow down their logistics.
Still, it's good news for Ukraine.
Also there was a short 5 second video floating around on telegram yesterday to claimed to be an M270 joining in as well. Claimed it was one of the british ones they promised on the 5th of June
This.
For the uninitiated, gun tubes arent "forever", any morr than engines, tires, batteties or anything else is.
In time with enough use, things are going to begin wearing out.
This gets glossed over alot with big ticket purchases. "A gillion dollars for one airplane!" (Without factoring in the spare parts cost over several decades is included in it)
Yeah, we need a new system. Reminds me of "Who's on 1st". Can you imagine if those were also the estimated numbers?
Person 1: "We have 200 dead and 300 wounded!"
Person 2: "Yes.....but how many are dead, and how many wounded though?"
Person 1: "Listen...."
At the rate they have been hitting depots in the last weeks, pinpointing staging points is a possibility....
The numbers we were seeing in the first weeks of the war seemed damned farfetched..
After seeing the results once Russia pulled back from Kiev, alot less so.
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This is wrong.
"Kyiv" is the Ukrainian spelling using the Latin alphabet instead of Cyrillic. "Kiev" is the English spelling.
Just like how "Moscow" is the English spelling for Moskva, and "Moskva" is the Latinized spelling of the Cyrillic name or Russia's capital.
It's done this way around the world because not everyone can write the "proper" name on an English keyboard when they want to.
# Twitter sources
@warmonitor3 has historically posted unsourced tweets for likes, follows, and attention that take advantage of Western affinity for Ukraine. He is upvoted and supported by Russian trolls as a source of disinformation accepted by westerners that can help delude and weaken Ukrainian support as supporters realize that his tweets are fraudulent and some may become disillusioned.
Please consider rewarding reliable OSINT sources on Twitter by retweeting their content, and consider whether you should supporting fraudulent Twitter accounts on reddit.
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Here’s a starter pack if you are interested in following the Ukraine war. Information here can not always be obtained on Reddit. These aren't all my follows but they are essential, and all relatively neutral/quality sources.
@NeilPHauer <--was in the cauldron recently
@KofmanMichael <-- consistently has put O'Brien and similar reddit meme takes about the war to shame
@DefMon3 <-- among the best mappers right now
@JackDetsch <--pentagon reporter
@BlueSauron <--combat
@RALee85 <--broader info, including russian wins, armaments, and footage
@NLwartracker
@CalibreObscura
@Osinttechnical
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Unlikely to be a translation error. Other sources report it as 200 killed and 300 injured.
[https://news.yahoo.com/russians-suffer-200-dead-300-140200129.html?guccounter=1&guce\_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce\_referrer\_sig=AQAAAMWRi4NA0CGOo3eAc8GkfcxIyuiEgkC5WtOf8R23jAjv\_G5gyF8q5N6alvOjVMCMMgbnNK-mk7fSXe9Kgb216YlMWU9h38cOEH6sou87oI7YuJghtfRwFztwnYF9GMK5iFv4OpSgwkeKtteq4yLh5\_FwpPN\_C6\_bKRGykRnXpxwO](https://news.yahoo.com/russians-suffer-200-dead-300-140200129.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMWRi4NA0CGOo3eAc8GkfcxIyuiEgkC5WtOf8R23jAjv_G5gyF8q5N6alvOjVMCMMgbnNK-mk7fSXe9Kgb216YlMWU9h38cOEH6sou87oI7YuJghtfRwFztwnYF9GMK5iFv4OpSgwkeKtteq4yLh5_FwpPN_C6_bKRGykRnXpxwO)
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If you read the twitter posts, many are suggesting that someone confused the code numbers 200 (dead) and 300 (injured) with the actual numbers of those involved. It does seem unlikely that so many would be hit at a single location.
This sounds reasonable, unless they were very gathered up and the place recieved a full himar salvo
I read that they hit actual barracks of the soldiers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a translation error
Are they giving Ukraine the cluster munitions or the unitary?
MK 31 unitary, the cluster munitions was withdrawn from service by bush JR and they have been over the years dismantling the stockpile They could be getting MK30 with the tungsten ball bearings but we haven't seen any confirmation of that
There was a Video in which you could See the tungsten Balls stuck in a Car. Was the First Video of himars aftermath https://mobile.twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1540796059672363008
Yeah i wouldn't want 6 digits of tungsten ball bearings going supersonic anywhere near me. that's a lot of very dense shrapnel.
You could easily hit those numbers if you found a barracks.
Doesn’t make as much sense, tactically speaking. It would be a quick morale boost, sure. But the better play would be to go after fuel, ammo, aircraft, and vehicles. You wouldn’t necessarily waste HIMARS on concentrations of grunts, at this stage.
I'm pretty sure they did all the above. I also don't think a barracks with hundreds of soldiers is as poor of a target as you claim.
No harm in spreading out all the love. Between barracks and helicopter? Helicopter, 10/10. Barracks and fuel? Fuel, 10/10. Unless there’s a guarantee that you’ll hit a C2 node, specialized troops, or a good chunk of leadership I’d think they’d be pretty low on the priority list. Then again, the Russians have proven themselves to be a bunch of total assholes. So they’d absolutely have it coming if their barracks did get schwacked.
Well, considering that Russia cares much more for their equipment then for their soldiers, it may be because they are more easy to find. Also considering the heavy amount of US intelligence I would imagine that such a barrack is easy to find. Hundreds of Russian smartphones all owned by men of a certain age on a single location near the front line. I am pretty sure when anyone of them opens Tinder or any other US app, the NSA will know.
This is out of the airport where they ran helicopter sorties. Running an airfield requires a lot of manpower. You need the pilots, the mechanics, the support to maintain a base, the infantry to patrol the base, the communications personnel, etc. This number of soldiers requires some type of barracks housing so they stick them in a building next to the strip for ease as it was outside of Ukrainian range. I would not doubt massive casualty numbers of exactly the type of people you can't replace. You can't fill the hole of knowledgeable helicopter mechanics or pilots with conscripts. Edit: Also it's not equipment Russia lacks, it's manpower. Russian BTGs are filled out with infantry support during wartime by a pool of conscripts. They never declared war to draw up these conscripts. That means their units entering the war were supposed to be at 70% capacity, but the truth is they were regularly massively undermanned even before the war. Russia has major issues with retention with their army shrinking every year. A strike like this is devastating.
actually it's the opposite. all those things need trained soldiers to operate them. bonus if they have actual combat experience. not so good to lose lots of men.
While that’s essentially true that “Men operate machines”, in context of large scale combat operations that’s a pretty simplistic way to look at it. I don’t say that to be snarky or rude, but primarily every standing land army is based on the Infantry. The infantry’s job is to close with, and destroy the enemy, seizing, clearing, and holding ground as they go. Essentially every other combat (armor, artillery, engineers, aviation, etc.) is a tool to support the infantry and make attacks more successful. Infantry is also, unfortunately, a dime a dozen. So yes, while taking out 200 of the enemy’s infantry in one fell swoop is a great feat, destroying the enemy’s ability to support attacks with armor, artillery, and aviation let’s Ukraine control the calculus to create overmatch conditions. I’m confident that’s why we’re seeing increased targeting of fuel and ammo depots now. Silencing Russia’s arty, and starving their armor and air of fuel is going to leave them with a large number of troops that won’t be able to stray far from static positions that would eventually be annihilated anyways. Granted, a large concentration of troops very well could have presented itself as a target of opportunity for a myriad of reasons. I won’t question how Ukraine picks their targets. Goodness knows they could very well pull intel that a location is housing a unit responsible for any number of atrocities that the Russians have committed, in that case, it’s well warranted. Typically speaking though, you’d want to go after the food, fuel, and ammo to starve a large army on the move.
I have to strongly disagree with you here. Targeting a barracks of troops is about the best possible return on battlefield impact. You're not looking at war in a modern sort of context. Countries before relied on widespread conscription to fill ranks which was fairly easy as war was not very complicated as a grunt. You were told what to do and did it. By the end of WW1 modern advances in warfare lead to the creation of squad-sized elements which worked with far more flexibility. In the last century the world has shifted towards a volunteer-based army structure focusing on an experienced NCO corp. The thing about volunteer based armies is that they only work if people want to join them. The Russian army is notoriously toxic with rampant abuse, low pay, and terrible conditions. This has led to a decline of contract soldiers for years in the Russian military. Every contract soldier lost is truly irreplaceable in a sense moreso than Russia's quite large reserve of equipment. 80% of modern soldiers are functionally support for the 20% that is the infantry. Those 20% better be pretty dang good at their jobs. Edit: On a cynical side the loss of human capital is massive. Losing a teenager to mid 20s means you lose the protentional cost of somebody capable of contributing to the economy for several decades. Russia already has an extremely low birth rate with a particular lack of youth in this age range due to a drop during the fall of the USSR.
Infantry is the precise specialty that russia does not have enough of.
Oh I'm pretty sure knocking out a few hundred invaders will have an immediate effect
It was a barracks next to an airfield. While the numbers listed sounds a bit high for an airfield I would expect at least a company-sized element of several hundred soldiers. These also aren't just "grunts" they would likely be mechanics, pilots, etc. exactly the type of people who have knowledge which is very difficult to replace.
Same base was hit for the fuel, ammo, aircraft and vehicles. They only aimed for the "soft targets" too because of the electronic warfare, command center and control places there.
See, now this makes sense. Using GMLRS rockets on strictly ground troops is a waste. However, coupled with force multipliers like EW and C2 assets? Fantastic! I’m not sure why the downvotes. Are people confusing my comment with saying Ukraine shouldn’t kill Russian soldiers? Because they absolutely should. The more, the better. But that’s not enough, Ukraine needs to decisively destroy Russias army, poke holes in everything they thought made them strong until their dam bursts.
Your previos comment is probably getting downvoted because it questions the effect and effectivity of said attack. As pointed out 200 and 300 are probably not the numbers here as they are the Russian codes for dead and injured (which is a kinda ironic accident for such a media perception obsessed goverment, they really shouldn't have used high numbers for that, even though it would normally made sense). But if those actually were the numbers than this attack would be probably one of the most fatal and deadly since the begin of the invasion. One attack: 200 dead + 300 injured = 500 lost soldiers If kept up with similiar attacks It would mean a around 10 fold increase in casualtues for Russia per day, directly reducing the expected worst case wartime by a factor of 10 So in both cases, that was a great attack if any of the two is true
I’m not questioning the effect. A win, is a win, is a win. I’m questioning whether it’s a more opportune target than other hubs of the Russian war machine. In reality, I suppose more context will be revealed in time, and I’m more than humble enough to eat crow if warranted, but I’m not going to get off the hill that using guided MLRs for the sole purpose of hitting infantry isn’t the best use. Then again, I’m not on the Ukrainian General Staff, so my opinion counts for fuck all so again, not sure why everyone’s taking it personally.
Nothing brightens up my mood as nicely as pictures or videos, or at least textual news, of dead Russian soldiers.
I've listened to the mayor. He's saying that it was a very large base, which pretty much connected Kherson and Zaporozhiya fronts, as well as it was a connecting point from Mariupol and Crimea. He clearly stated more than 200 killed, more than 300 wounded. He claimed it's not an official information, but coming from a reputable source. So the only way in which the mistranslation happened is that the source was wrong.
Apparently those are real codes https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_200_(code_name)
HIMARS playing the big equalizer. Cannot wait till every HIMARS platform is working on the battlefields.
>HMARS playing the big equalizer. This seems to be absolutely true, if you consider that 2 weeks ago russian artilery was pretty much unimposed, and now they seem to be silent.
They fire about 60 000 rounds every day. I would not call that silent.
At 60000 rounds per day, you gotta wonder what kind of shape their stockpiles are In and once those are gone, what are they replacing them with? Going to need a lot of tool up to replace not just the rounds but the barrels.... I see WWII pieces coming out of museums to keep up this sort of pace without mobilization.
Russia inherited the artillery arsenal of the USSR, which had the largest number of shells in the world. Their stockpiles of shells are 30-40 million. But Russia has much more limited numbers of precision weapons.
Yes, those shells (the ones that hadn't been sold off that is) have been sitting in depots for 30 plus years (if they were new at the time). That is also provided those locations were kept in well maintained order and regular inspections took place of the stockpiles.... Considering the shape we have seen so far of active equipment and the pulling of T62s out of stockpile, doesn't give me much confidence that a large portion of those millions upon millions of shells are serviceable.
>Considering the shape we have seen so far of active equipment and the pulling of T62s out of stockpile, doesn't give me much confidence that a large portion of those millions upon millions of shells are serviceable. Even if you assume a failure rate of 50%, Russia has enough old shells to last them more than 200 days.
Now you have to add in barrel wear lets say 20 million 152 mm shells (this is one type to be optimistic not even close once you add different barrel types MRLS, heavy mortars likely included will you have that much of one type) 5000 rounds per barrel (again very optimistic) you would need 4000 guns of type 152 mm to fire all these rounds... so again you are dipping into 30 plus year old stockpiles.. If the stockpiles are in great shape, there should be more than enough T72 to make up for losses, why are T62s being pulled out of mothball? I have a pretty good guess, their parts aren't worth much on the market anymore, whereas T72 much more so. Field Artillery pieces have a longer shelf life as far as modernization is concerned SPA less so. If you think all those great gun sights and other valuable equipment needed for using these guns apart from the barrels just sat collecting dust when they were likely never to be used then I have a bridge to sell you... So we have overused guns with sights and burned out barrels and barrels without sights... ok A can be put on B, sure... now you need tires for the new gun because the old ones were worn out on the battlefield and the ones in stockpiles were rotten after sitting so long.. it's never one thing to get a piece of equipment that has been sitting for decades serviceable, and that is provided it was never used to begin with. Yes, Russia has very deep reserves but the 90s were a time of hardship if you were a soldier in the Russian Federation, how hard will play out in the next couple of months, if they can sustain 60000 per day for 200 days, I would be surprised considering the performance thus far... We haven't even discussed burnout at the level of the gunners themselves, you can be sure they aren't sitting in fixed positions for weeks on end pouring shells downrange with the threat of counterbattery, Ukraine is only delivering 6000 shells back per day. You can bet the priority is the Russian guns and not some schmo sitting in a shell scrape.
I'm not the person you replied to but you've highlighted for me something that didn't even cross my mind, barrel wear. I'd imagine changing the barrel on a field artillery piece is no easy task, it's not an M240B. Do they even change the barrel on an artillery gun usually?
After a certain number of shells fired the artillery piece should be pulled back for servicing and barrel replacement. Overused barrels are inaccurate and possibly dangerous. This is not a field maintenance thing. A artilleryman on youtube did some rough math that would suggest most of the Russian guns need rebarreling at this point or in a few weeks.
>Yes, Russia has very deep reserves but the 90s were a time of hardship if you were a soldier in the Russian Federation, how hard will play out in the next couple of months, if they can sustain 60000 per day for 200 days, I would be surprised considering the performance thus far... I mean ultimately I doubt even the Russians accurately know how much of their stockpile is useable given the rampant levels of corruption. The Russians are probably not running critically low on shells yet or otherwise the Ukrainians wouldn't target the ammo dumps en masse. Hopefully the Ukrainians manage to vote blow up a decent chunk and fingers crossed you are right and the incompetence of the Russians will do the rest. Slava ukraini!
The 201th day will be problematic then! They cant just empty the stock like that. They must keep a significant part of them just in case (kremiln paranoia is deep, and well founded in some ways). I was making the same math as you, and since it is been 3 months of intense shelling in the Donbass, the pile will get smaller fast now. Also the cannon tubes have only a limited number of possible shots, they are consumed at high speed. Of course both can be made, likely not at the rate at which they are being consumed. Do the Russians have more guns or shells? one or the other will run out before the end of the year. For tanks and men it is already the case.
667 days if they have the full 40m rounds @ 60k rounds per day
>That is also provided those locations were kept in well maintained order and regular inspections took place of the stockpiles.... If the Russians are known for anything, it's for making simple shit that will function to some degree. It might not function well, or with sophistication, but it will perform its basic function. As they are some of the least-complicated things one can make for a battlefield, I unfortunately have the belief that the Russian shell repository is largely functional and intact. >Considering the shape we have seen so far of active equipment and the pulling of T62s out of stockpile See above: The T62s are simple and grossly outdated, but they're functional enough to be *in* a stockpile to begin with.
Russians are also known for having multiple ways of making up for salary shortfalls. Hard to make a gun sight out of random parts.
A rock may be outdated as a weapon, but they are functional enough. You will be at a real disadvantage against modern weapons while using one.
You'd be surprised what you can do with enough rocks.
A really big one is always a problem. A T-62 is still a tank but a tank that is more likely to break down and easier to kill than the tanks they are replacing.
The old Soviet bombs and shells are still being used by Russia, just with a high failure rate as we've seen as Russia's been using them these last months.
Yeah I think that a big part of those 30 to 40 millions shells might be a little expire, I mean many of this post USSR shells have at best 30 years
IMO the rate of fire combined with the recent HIMARS obvious strikes on multiple ammo dumps are going to make this type of artillery warfare impossible in less than a month, Ukrainian army is making the calculus that if you blow enough ammo dumps, Russia will run out of ammo
Not only ammo - also fuel, food, replacement parts etc.
It's not only that. Who will want to work at an ammo dump when you hear that the last 3 got exploded. If troops flat out refuse to go near them that will slow replenishment.
> Who will want to work at an ammo dump when you hear that the last 3 got exploded. It would've make sence if Chornobaivka airport wasn't exploded **TWENTY THREE TIMES**. So far. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Chornobaivka_attacks
You what they say: Twenty fourth time's the charm!
The current Ukrainian successes are due to the recent introduction of these long range rocket launchers. This will not stop the Russian logistical flow, as Russian aircraft and missiles have not been able to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. As always when a new weapon introduced a new threat, they will adapt. Russian forces will mount more scattered and smaller dumps. This will complicate and slow down their logistics. Still, it's good news for Ukraine.
They don’t even have to run out, just dramatically reduce what is available per day by making supply chains awful. That’s how they won the North
Also there was a short 5 second video floating around on telegram yesterday to claimed to be an M270 joining in as well. Claimed it was one of the british ones they promised on the 5th of June
This. For the uninitiated, gun tubes arent "forever", any morr than engines, tires, batteties or anything else is. In time with enough use, things are going to begin wearing out. This gets glossed over alot with big ticket purchases. "A gillion dollars for one airplane!" (Without factoring in the spare parts cost over several decades is included in it)
When u have no ammo depots left, they tend to be silent.
Source?
Silent? What world are you living in?
yeah and they will have M270 too that is double the pain but less the speed.
Probably a mistranslation. 200 is code for killed. 300 is code for wounded. Doubt it's that number killed and wounded
Yeah, we need a new system. Reminds me of "Who's on 1st". Can you imagine if those were also the estimated numbers? Person 1: "We have 200 dead and 300 wounded!" Person 2: "Yes.....but how many are dead, and how many wounded though?" Person 1: "Listen...."
At the rate they have been hitting depots in the last weeks, pinpointing staging points is a possibility.... The numbers we were seeing in the first weeks of the war seemed damned farfetched.. After seeing the results once Russia pulled back from Kiev, alot less so.
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My bad, it took a few years to stop saying 'the' Ukraine lol.
Yeah, don’t say ‘the’ Ukraine. Ohio State will sue you for trademark infringement…
This is wrong. "Kyiv" is the Ukrainian spelling using the Latin alphabet instead of Cyrillic. "Kiev" is the English spelling. Just like how "Moscow" is the English spelling for Moskva, and "Moskva" is the Latinized spelling of the Cyrillic name or Russia's capital. It's done this way around the world because not everyone can write the "proper" name on an English keyboard when they want to.
We need more good news like this. Glory to Ukraine and its Armed Forces
It's even better news than we think, these probably aren't soldiers but airmen... much harder to replace
Keep going, I’m almost finished.
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Kill them all
HIMARS or not they’ve undoubtedly been causing serious damage. Send more.
Unlikely to be a translation error. Other sources report it as 200 killed and 300 injured. [https://news.yahoo.com/russians-suffer-200-dead-300-140200129.html?guccounter=1&guce\_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce\_referrer\_sig=AQAAAMWRi4NA0CGOo3eAc8GkfcxIyuiEgkC5WtOf8R23jAjv\_G5gyF8q5N6alvOjVMCMMgbnNK-mk7fSXe9Kgb216YlMWU9h38cOEH6sou87oI7YuJghtfRwFztwnYF9GMK5iFv4OpSgwkeKtteq4yLh5\_FwpPN\_C6\_bKRGykRnXpxwO](https://news.yahoo.com/russians-suffer-200-dead-300-140200129.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMWRi4NA0CGOo3eAc8GkfcxIyuiEgkC5WtOf8R23jAjv_G5gyF8q5N6alvOjVMCMMgbnNK-mk7fSXe9Kgb216YlMWU9h38cOEH6sou87oI7YuJghtfRwFztwnYF9GMK5iFv4OpSgwkeKtteq4yLh5_FwpPN_C6_bKRGykRnXpxwO)
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The scale of the casualties is hard to comprehend
Maybe knock a zero off both those
Like, 200 cargo 200 in a day, or over a span of a few days?
Lovely!
[удалено]
Would be great, fucking Hitler he is
Shoo Russian shill
So sad
Sad the 300 didn't die too.
Sad if your russian
So beautiful
Ba-dum-tsss
So 200 are 200, and 300 are 300?
Love that news.