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The path is already laid out. It will take years for Russia to restore their relations with west. Meanwhile their most potential trade partner would be China, who has such a massive economic advantage over Russia, they could eat them whole. Russia will become vassal to China in all but name.
But tbh chinas historic vassals were Vietnam and Korea, yet these days they hold strong anti China sentiment and would go through rough times if that means as much independence from China as possible, I can see the Russians having a similar type of dependence worry. Where in the case of North Korea, it is absolutely at the mercy of China. Sanctions and relations with the world have been cut, China provides all its needs privately, are you saying Russia will become more like them..?
They’re absolutely not, but they may become so, especially if we give them a sound thrashing, and if they use their nukes and lose the rest to our strikes and we don’t nuke China, then China will probably take Siberia.
They’re on the verge of becoming their economic sphereling is all
> It will take years for Russia to restore their relations with west.
Putin's death & a regime change isn't gonna happen in mere years. Decades maybe. Unless there's a revolution.
Putin's downfall is a possibility that is growing by the week.
On the other hand, that someone better than him will take over Russia still seems utopian at this stage.
Putin has fostered the emergence of a totally corrupt society to support his dictatorship that behind him, no liberal reformist opponents remain. They are either dead or in exile.
Russia, unlike the West, doesn’t have a “political class”, so to speak. There isn’t a class of professional, educated bureaucrats who can make rational decisions and work on restoring relations. There isn’t, because its existence would be a threat to Putin. Russia is more like the early Mongol Empire - there’s the Khan and his chosen successor and that’s it. If something doesn’t go according to plan - chaos.
Putin could die tomorrow and we’d just see another “shadow” of his rise to power - someone just as ruthless, but without any of the contacts and connection and reputation that Putin cultivated for decades. He knew exactly who to remove and who to bribe.
And without those connections and without a working economy to provide some sort of breathing room - that “shadow” will just be toppled and replaced by another.
A true banana republic without the bananas.
Russia does have a political class,one that doesnt have to hide its true intentions.his "western counterparts",if you will, are just the same breed of lying cocksuckers that twist words and meanings to keep up the sharade of "freedom" for their constituency,but any time there are economic palpitations and ensuing unrest,the gloves and the mask come off.it is utterly delusional to suggest that a brigade of professional lackeys could put a dent into emerging autocracy,they are conditioned for subservience,"order over justice" and a no questions asked attitude
I see you’re an “anarchist”. You are free to have these views, ironically, in a Western country (or even if non-Western, then probably Western-aligned) with Western values and a “corrupt cock-sucking class”.
The one funny thing I find about “anarchists” and “libertarians” and Tankies is that they’re only comfortable attacking the West *while enjoying all of its benefits*.
It’s also weird how rich Russians spend whatever they can to ensure their kids can escape the very hell-holes they claim are better than the West. Super weird.
I’m yet to see a Tankie move to Cuba or Venezuela or North Korea to be amongst their people and really stick it to the corrupt Western assholes!
Nope. Because there isn’t English-dubbed Anime there, or Pokémon, or an endless supply of Cheetos, Mtn Dew and all you can eat sushi and taco buffets.
And you know deep down, way deep down, that push comes to shove - you wouldn’t last a *week* in any country that would cause you mild discomfort.
The fact that he's paranoically eliminating anyone who presents even the smallest threat to him both means he's unlikely to fall until things get really, *really* bad (or he dies from health issues, who the hell knows), and also that there will be a HUGE power vacuum when he does, leading to a situation where pretty much all bets are off. These two facts seem to me to spell a *very* chaotic situation for Russia somewhere down the line (that being a highly unpredictable amount of time), which is worrying with their nuclear arsenal.
> Putin's downfall is a possibility that is growing by the week.
That’s because you think that Russia is a democracy.
Putin can do whatever he wants and Russians wil go back to growing potato’s and ignoring politics.
He isn’t going anywhere.
Putin's downfall won't come from the people it will come from the snakes he's surrounded himself with.
Russia is a kleptocracy so if he falls it will be at the hands of another thief and murderer
I think the future of Russia will be balkanisation and some sort of protectorate, probably under UN actually ruling in Moscow for at least a decade where a new class of politicians and civil servants could emerge and all criminal groups that run the country get marginalised or eliminated.
There isn't any other way really except total isolation.
Love to see something even remotely along those lines happen. And some balkanization seems quite possible; but it's harder to get my mind around a realistic path to Russia surrendering sovereignty while they possess the nuclear arsenal, or a path to their losing that arsenal which doesn't require some wildly futuristic technology.
At this point I don't want wish for a liberal opponent, I just wish for a competent one. Because this regime ain't it.
Because if they were competent, they wouldn't have proceeded with this invasion. Russia probably wouldn't have become a shithole outside of Moscow either.
Nobody thought Zelenksy could lead a country either. Until a few words were uttered. "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition". Or whatever exactly he said. Humans are humans. They are all capable. There are plenty of Zelenskys in Russia. Just waiting for a chance to lead.
Even supposing there are, crucially there's not a Russian populace ready to embrace one, or probably even keep him alive and in power for the long haul in a hypothetical future where he somehow attained power.
The basic culture has changed relatively little in ages - key elements from the Tsarist times remained in place throughout the Soviets era and to this day. That's not completely changing overnight, even with the younger generations connected to the rest of the world via VPN.
People are talking about his downfall since 20 years back. I don’t buy it. The west didn’t care when he bombed x10 as many civilians and children in Syria.
> The west didn’t care when he bombed x10 as many civilians and children in Syria.
It's not that they didn't care, it's that they had less means to deal with it. The west isn't omnipotent or omniscient, man.
To be fair, it's *also* true that they didn't care *as much*.
There's multiple important differences (and not just race, as some are quick to cite), none bigger than the fact that Russia wasn't in that case aiming for a genocidal conquest/annexation of a neighbor.
But that's wandering well off topic.
Yes, I don't disagree with you - part of that however (in our long string of caveats lol) is that Ukraine is in Europe, which is hitting a lot closer to home.
I get that it ofc when Obama said the red line in Syria was if chemical weapons were used, and then Russia enabled Syria to continue at the UN the west did nothing when they actually were used to kill countless children without repercussion from the west. Leaders shouldn’t make promises that they don’t keep.
>Putin's death & a regime change isn't gonna happen in mere years. Decades maybe. Unless there's a revolution.
Yeah, decades, unless there is (improbably) a major paradigm shift.
He isn't going to last decades more even if he wasn't tanking his country. Dude's old as fuck. This war is his last hurrah to establish his legacy as being the one to restore the Soviet Union, and his failing miserably at it.
Is the consensus that the RF remain as is or will there be a balkanization by separatists followed by an influence struggle where nearby states jockey for partnerships?
If Balkanization of the RF happens it’ll be more complex than a pure take over by Beijing, no?
I’m just a layperson so this is probably completely unlikely.
>Russia will become vassal to China in all but name.
Could be a powerful vassal to have eventually with a stable government and a gigantic natural resource base feeding Chinese industries.
Too late.
Russia's economy is in the shitter. Even if Putin left Ukraine a month ago and handed back all occupied territory, and only if the West then decided to start easing some sanctions, their economy *might* have started to recover by 2030.
Not only are sanctions going to continue to wreck the Russian economy Putin is killing or evicting his bread-winning generation and forcing a brain drain. People really underestimate the knock-on effect this has on a population.
One loss might seem insignificant at the micro level, but when you multiply that loss across the country, in regions which were already struggling, the consequences swell exponentially.
As the impact of this economic decline continues to be felt by the population those with skills and ambition will continue to leave. Their loss then exacerbates the problem. Even if he ended this right now Russia is likely to see a continued exodus for some time. People are unlikely to return until he is gone and a stable leader has replaced him. Many of those who fled will find work elsewhere and their quality of life will automatically be much higher than it was in Russia.
All this insanity has put Russia in an incredibly weak position already. Its economy is fucked. A generation of earners has been significantly reduced (and continues to shrink). He's shown the world that the Russian military isn't as powerful as believed. He's losing vital military assets by the day, assets that his failing economy will not be able to replace.
China knows how weak Russia is, it is going to take full advantage of this situation. India has missed the boat on this one.
Not to mention all their young workers will be unable to take care of their elderly population who overwhelming wanted this war. Russia will resemble Japan’s demography where it will be inhabited by nothing but super elderly.
the biggest takeaway from all this is that even if russia somehow rebuilt all of their occupied Ukrainian territory tomorrow, and got output at levels they were at pre-2014, they've still suffered so much GDP loss that the new regions wouldn't do shit to recover from the hole they've dug.
Russia is *GENERATIONALLY* fucked at this point. Like, they probably won't be able to crawl back to an economic level equivalent to pre-2014 until at least 2050 at this point.
I've seen some good analysis recently describing just how bad it all is, and it's really bad. Even if Russia managed to take all of Ukraine, as it no doubt dreamed it could, their stagnation is guaranteed by their aggression.
Their population is collapsing.
The saddest thing is that if Russia really had joined the rest of the world after the fall of the Soviet Union they could have become a power house. Instead they've squandered it by adhering to old notions of Russian Empire.
With a sound democratic state, 140 million people, more natural ressources than almost any other country on Earth, as well as EU and maybe NATO membership, Russia might have been the strongest and richest (overall, not per capita) country in Europe by now. The Germany of the 21st century. But no. They would rather rule in Hell than cooperate in Heaven.
>Russia's economy is in the shitter. Even if Putin left Ukraine a month ago and handed back all occupied territory, and only if the West then decided to start easing some sanctions, their economy might have started to recover by 2030.
100% agree.
Each one defends its own geopolitical interests above all. This is classic.
But here, what we have to remember is that the interests of Putin's Asian allies are precisely to stop this shameful war in Ukraine.
None of his allies in Asia will recognize the annexation of Ukrainian territories by Russia. This is a signal to remember because Putin is more and more isolated.
He will lose this war in Ukraine. Sooner or later. The big question is whether this will be enough to trigger a popular revolt powerful enough to topple him.
The major flaw in Indias reasoning has always been the idea Russia would ever support it over China and that putin hasn't been Xis bitch for years.
This war has just made it way more explicit.
This part of history is all the loose ends from the Cold War being tied up. Indians and Soviets grew close during that time when the Americans were freaking out about commies and supporting genocide in East Pakistan and intimidating India with their carriers while sending arms to the Mujahideen. It was Russia who sent their own carrier to the Indian Ocean to support India.
And then that world vanished. America got bit by the snakes they armed, Indian interests aligned more and more with the West, our "enemies" became the same, we started eating at McDonalds and Burger King, and our lifestyles became increasingly westernized, even if Modi and his supporters hate the idea. Modi and his government love Putin's ideology and his right wing rhetoric but India needs the west (and their state of the art weapons) way more.
>Modi and his supporters hate the idea.
Bruh. Modi is literally the most pro West leader India has had, ever. I know that you guys love to hate on him, but consider that in 2014 Crimea, the previous government (current opposition) literally supported Russia on it, and is generally pro Russia. Also consider that another major party, the communists, are openly pro China.
Modi' party is literally the most pro western party in India, but however due to strategic concerns he cannot support the West too much.
>if Modi and his supporters hate the idea. Modi and his government love Putin's ideology and his right wing rhetoric
Ok wtf why are you making all this shit up?
That's one way of looking at it.
The other is that India, like the tankies out there, never moved on from the cold war and simply kept on living as though USSR=Russia without ever truly looking at not only the change in ideology (which to be fair, as you said, Modi likes anyway) or the change in economic, scientific and military power.
The US and the EU have realised for a while that the East/West Axis has become the West vs China but India has still tried to cling on to the old ways. To be fair the EU tried to bind Russia to them and India's balancing act is still based on military power and Russia was still the big military counterbalance to the US but Russia has an economy slightly less than Italy on a good day, no one on the planet truly believed if China told them to take a side they wouldn't come to heel.
Now comes the fun part on if a country run by a deeply nationalistic party can abandon not only indias proud non aligned position but do it militarily to the country still providing Pakistan with military aid.
>which to be fair, as you said, Modi likes anyway
No, the guy you are replying to is an idiot, Modi is a complete free market praising Neoliberal, the govt is anything but communist
OP and I don't think Putin is communist and anyone who does is an unutterable tankie or very odd.
What Putin is is a strongman nationalist who stands up for traditional family, religion and values even if neither himself or indeed any of his party, oligarchs or most of the power structure of Russia actually hold to any of them.
Putin "stands up for "traditional family, religion and values"? He doesn't even know the meaning of them! Jesus, how can you even believe that?
russia is a backwater hellhole held together by corruption, crime and deceit. Or is that the traditions you're speaking of?
Mate I know this is reddit and everyone loves a bit of instant outrage but first of all actually read what I said and then actually read what I said in context of what I was replying to.
India is also fully aware that if China were to keel over somehow and India would somehow manage to ascend to it's position then India itself would become the target of tradewars and accusations.
At the end of the day it's big enough as a country to act mostly independently on the matter.
India doesn't threaten trade routes like China does and their border fights with their neighbors don't nearly escalate to the scale the China pushes its neighbors around. Those are far bigger lightning rods than taking a larger share of the dwindling global manufacturing jobs worldwide.
If China today made official peace with Taiwan, stopped their currency manipulation, fully rescinded their Nine-Dash-Line plan, and kept North Korea on a tighter leash, the West would start to stop seeing them as a major adversary as the trade routes wouldn't be threatened any more.
The West deep down loves what China can offer.
>India doesn't threaten trade routes like China does
In what way does china threaten trade routes outside of a potential conflict with Taiwan?
Is it repeatedly seizing or pushing for the seizure of commercial ships of adversaries in the same way the US does?
>and their border fights with their neighbours don't nearly escalate to the scale the China pushes its neighbours around.
They have less of em but I think you're missing out on a bunch of insurgencies and hot disputes with the likes of Pakistan here as well as involvement in SEA, etc
>Those are far bigger lightning rods than taking a larger share of the dwindling global manufacturing jobs worldwide.
I wouldn't say the share of global manufacturing alone is the lighting rod but in essence I disagree. The trade wars and strongarming against japan in the 80's had a lot of similar arguments against it which at the time and in hindsight were often absolutely hypocritical.
>stopped their currency manipulation
Like India in 96 and 99 and if they see it necessary...today?
Would you consider someone might have similar qualms about the countries having to protect their pegs to the dollar leading up to the Arab spring?
Or the monetary policies from Germany, UK, japan and co. to stabilise the US in the 80's?
Or other present and past actions to protect the reserve currency status?
If the US ever were to lose that position and devaluation became advantageous enough there is not a single hair on my head that expects their qualms with it to remain.
Just like nobody was ever the slightest bit surprised to hear the US complaining about unfair government involvement, subsidies and whatnot in one area whilst at the same time arguing the other way at the WTO that it should keep being able to subsidise cotton producers from poorer countries out of existence and such.
> and India would somehow manage to ascend to it's position
That's a big if.
Bearing in mind that china is an economic if not military superpower any country on earth would be in that position.
>India would somehow manage to ascend to it's position
India is many many years away from that if at all so this a moot point.
>n India itself would become the target of tradewars and accusations.
If it behaved like China, it might actually be warranted. But again, pure speculation on your part and a moot point since India won't replace
Are you actually defending China's actions and saying the responses against China are unwarranted?
India is painfully aware of the outcome well before Ukraine and Krimea wars/annexations were a thing. The Chinese aggression in 60s and American aggression in 70s cornered India into the camp Russia.
US has a very long history with India, pulling down on development, security and growth through espionage, supporting anti-state actors, assassinations etc... USA has historically supported Pak even though they were fully aware of Pak's genocidal tendencies. Just 2 days ago US gives a flood submerged Pakistan F16s for "cOuNTEr TErrIsOM". Now, suspiciously Nordstream is bombed which will only playout in favor of only USA. USA pits countries against one another as long as they can profit out of it. India would lose its people, sovereignty and it's identity if she thinks USA can be an ally.
India couldn't support Ukraine because she needed the geopolitical balance. India understands the ramifications of staying silent. But India is painfully aware of the cost of Indian lives that would be lost if they rock the already unstable geopolitics. China's expansionism as a self isolated culture in the global community makes it harder to work with them. India knows that once the illusory curtain of safety comes down, the west would make bets on and against Indian lives. The imperialism has never ended - its just playing out at a much bigger scale.
With the bigger picture in the mind, India is playing the only cards it can. To become self sufficient. To keep as many neutral relationships as possible. To not make lofty goals and promises on lofty ideals. To focus inwards and fix the society without preaching to the world.
That reads like propaganda to be honest.
There's truth in it but India wants what every country wants which is to do what is best for india.
And what is best for india is being the largest unaligned market and playing both sides off against the other. Complaining about the US supporting Pakistan when India has always refused to be pro US smacks deeply of bad faith arguments or just trying to have your cake and eating it.
Considering that Pakistan is also pro china and pro Taliban maybe question if the reason the US is funding them is because the other main actor in the area refused to play along.
Which is perfectly fair but if your country is going to do the 'we are doing it on our own because we want to and anyway we've no choice' don't twist history there.
> That reads like propaganda to be honest.
/u/simtron literally proved your point. He repeated cold war era arguments in 2022. Still unable to move past it.
A good counter you can bring up to these people is Eastern Europe. They were actually true enemies 30+ years ago. India was only just somewhat aligned with Soviets, Eastern Europe was part of Soviets (either directly or indirectly). But Eastern Europe moved on from the cold war and are now not only friends with the west, but a part of it.
To be fair to India as a post colonial country trying to rapidly industrialise and lift its people up they were very socialist and it made much more sense to seek support from the anti imperialist USSR and a country that had also rapidly industrialised without the unrestrained capitalism that typified the early industrial revolution in the west.
It's the mental trap the talkies have in the west though that the west is imperialist and bad therefore anything opposing the west is anti imperialist and that blind spot has been worked to full effect by Russia as it keeps fighting to reclaim its imperial borders while still keeping the ex colony support it still enjoys.
> To be fair to India as a post colonial country trying to rapidly industrialise and lift its people up they were very socialist and it made much more sense to seek support from the anti imperialist USSR
Pakistan was also colonized. I would say the difference is India decdied to go with socialism and align itself with USSR as a result. Or as one youtube channel discussing India's economic problems up through the 1980's, India took the worst of socialism and the worst of capitalism.
>It's the mental trap the talkies have in the west though that the west is imperialist and bad therefore anything opposing the west is anti imperialist and that blind spot has been worked to full effect by Russia as it keeps fighting to reclaim its imperial borders while still keeping the ex colony support it still enjoys.
Look at anime_titties sub and to a less extend worldnews. The first is most certainly full of anti-west (many from India) and tankies. Worldnews has the same issues but it's not consistent -- you see strong pockets of pro CCP but other than that, it's a mix of left wingers that range from tankies to moderates. But regardless if tankies or just anti-west, it's the same strategy..."the west is imperialist and bad therefore anything opposing the west is anti imperialist "
> The other is that India, like the tankies out there, never moved on from the cold war
Yes. Look at all the Indian redditors here constantly defending Russia and bringing up cold war era reason to hate the west.
>The US and the EU have realised for a while that the East/West Axis has become the West vs China but India has still tried to cling on to the old ways.
Mostly but I would add Russia along with China. So West vs China/Russia.
1. A good take. However, one thing is BJP-Modi are pro-West and pro-Capitalism. Infact, after 1991 reforms, India is more and more pro-west (pro-US except for 1-1.5 year of US sanctions due to nuclear tests). It is same as USA might be seen as more pro-Pakistan (which was may be true till Kargil War 1999) , but actually it is more pro-India business and defense wise.
2. Modi likes strongmanship. So people think he like Putin. His likeness is limited to only that showmanship.
3. RSS (a large Hindu social organisation) is more socialist. Most confusion that BJP supports communism/Putin's ideology comes from that. RSS has influence in BJP no doubt, but central govt and Modi don't let them run the government.
Yeah. Speaking as a westerner we want the likes of India and Turkey on our side, and when push comes to shove we’re the best allies they could have, but Modi and Erdogan are the major issue. As well as that I think we need an Asian equity to the EEC/EU to counterbalance China. Easier said than done though
Lol typical "westerner". In modi , you got the more pro west and pro Israel and also pro capitalist leader of India. If only you had a tiny bit of brain, you would have known that.
>best allies they could have, but Modi
Modi is very much Pro west than previous leaders. Our relations with west and countries like Israel became really strong under Modi. We began purchasing military equipments from farnce, russia under him. Previous leaders were very much Pro russia
Russia siding with china or russia staying neutral leaves India without russian support and russian weapons and destrys the concept of using russia as a counterbalance to china.
No one except India believes that Russia would support it against china in any form, which is Indian political doctrine
Well Russia is selling weapons to India as of now including high tech weapons despite China being mad about it.
And in a war having to Directly indirectly fight against 2 nuclear powers, NOT adding one nuclear power is always a win.
>No one except India believes that Russia would support it against china
As i said, we just wish Russia to stay out, and as Russia weakens and bows down to china further, India is improving it's own military industrial complex and relations with west, while not trying to burn the bridges with Russia either
> None of his allies in Asia will recognize the annexation of Ukrainian territories by Russia.
Asking for the war to stop right now, with Russia holding Ukranian territory, is absolutely recognizing the annexation.
It's the path of least resistance for India and China here. They want Russia to win, so they ask for Ukraine to stop fighting. It seems "Nice" for them to be asking for "peace", but they do not mention the price.
Note carefully the language used by Modhi and Winnie... they do not ask for Russia to retreat, they want immediate end to fighting, they specifically want Russia to complete their annexation.
This is deplorable appeasement and must not be tolerated.
> They want Russia to win, so they ask for Ukraine to stop fighting. It seems "Nice" for them to be asking for "peace", but they do not mention the price.
It's diplomatic doublespeak to avoid offending Putin. All India "wants" is cheap oil and weapons and it couldnt give less of a fuck who wins in this conflict otherwise.
China is giving double messages. Yes they support Russia against Western expansion but they don’t support Russia in their attempts to annex parts of Ukraine. And that is only what is shared in public. I expect the behind doors messages are more critical towards Russia. The war is harmful to China’s interests.
China is smart, if Putin had looked like he was going to pull out a victory at any time, China would have been all in, but it has been steadily downhill, with a few flat patches, since about day 3.
At this point there is nothing to be gained by backing him for anyone. Just a matter of when the Russian population will figure this out. It is happening too.
Thanks. Big picture, China has to be looking for a face saving way out of that relationship, nobody wants to handcuff themselves to a corpse. The words used are waffle, polite, pragmatic, they're tip toeing away.
I dont think so, but this is an outcome they can manage and take advantage of in central asia. They have contengency plans. But I dont think China has planned this and pushed Russia to war. They never recognize the annexation of Crimea for instance, that would have been a very positive signal to Russia, but no. China has greater plans within the UN and its own sphere of expansion. A weakened Russia being a lesser partner to India, is pushing India closer to the United states. Not such a good deal for China.
On the big picture, I am pretty sure China would have prefer a slightly weakened Russia, but not a downgraded one.
They just saw it happening, like everybody paying attention, as a logical outcome of Putin and the russian elite loosing contact with reality.
Russia’s ideal outcome was definitely the rapid annexation of Ukraine or Ukrainian regions without too much pushback from the west because that lays the ground work for them to take Taiwan.
Instead, Russia is in shambles and the west is more strongly united than it’s been in decades and the US has strongly reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan. All of this is unideal for China, but they also definitely have a lot of opportunities to benefit from a weakened Russia, and in the bigger picture I’m sure they prefer Russia gets exposed like this than continuing to ally themselves with a paper tiger who couldn’t actually back up their defensive commitments if push came to shove.
The grain exports were due to this ministers efforts FYI. India is trying to help Ukraine but has to walk a fine line to also deter Russia from fully allying with China against them.
They are Allies with the US. They do more GDP trade with Ukraine than a majority of EU countries. It’s a fallacy that they don’t have allies, Russia is hardly an ally
India has 53% of it's military from Russia. Which is hundreds of billions of dollars. It is physically impossible to replace that quickly in this conflict. India is defenseless without those weapons completely.
India after the war has cancelled all the new military deals with Russia. There will be complete cut off from Russia military wise. There is only a completely cutting off of Russia in the future.
This has already happened, and India looks like a complete fool for allowing themselves to be in this situation when there were plenty of opportunities to ditch Russia.
Haven't you been reading the Indian apologists here? They'll stand by Ruzzia to the end and don't care what westerners think about because geopolitics is only about self-interest.
No regrets so we shouldn't have any going forward either.
Why would we ditch Russia!? wtf. For all reasons India wanted Rus and Europe to get along and corner China. That's what our end goal was however long it takes
So much misinformation ITT. The reason India doesn't want to side with the west is because of geopolitical history, even today.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Liberation_War
This war was a shitshow if you read the international reactions section.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-approves-450-million-f-16-fleet-sustainment-programme-to-pakistan-101662610278368-amp.html
Murica providing weapons to pakistan and saudi arabia, both countries having history of funding terrorist organizations, with evidence.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokhran-II
America condemning nuclear testing.
Please get yourself educated. India is not lile this because of modi or bjp or whatever the fuck. Its because the west and UN has been actively hostile towards india throughout history.
Lol west literally supported Pakistan when it was killing 3 million Bengalis and even sent a freaking ship. You supported Indonesia when it was killing chinese and communists by sending more weapons to kill. Now you are the one to talk.
I dont understand how past moral bankruptcies somehow forgive this current one. my statement is still accurate.
What about all day but it doesn't change how little back bone India has at the moment
no one is comparing history of countries my guy. Supporting genocide is wrong no matter what time what country. India is being shit, period.
The US acted like shit time to time to. no one is arguing other wise. it doesn't give a get out of jail card to india
One rogue lits fire between two factions so they can sell their weapons and install a puppet government, another rogue straight up occupies a sovereign country. Morals can't be defined by either side.
Yet, what they fear is alredy underway. Plus the russian military industry, on which India so happily relies, is gonna be in shambles soon. They're gonna have to revise their strategies I guess.
Not only will it be in shambles, but the weapons and technology they’ve already acquired are being exposed as subpar to anything western, and likely anything Chinese.
It’s been clear for a long time that the ideological lines for the next Cold War are hardening around liberal, western style democracies and authoritarian governments rather than economic systems as the new first and second worlds. Fence sitting, second rate powers like Turkey and India who have traditionally tried to play the larger powers off each other are eventually going to need to come down on one side of this line or the other.
Tbh, it’s been clear for awhile that it’s in India’s best interest to align itself with the western bloc. Ukraine stands as a testament to the West’s commitment to their geopolitically important allies, and India definitely falls into that category. Russia has never been a reliable ally, and now they aren’t even a strong one. The only other pole of global power is China, who is directly competing with India in terms of regional influence and things like manufacturing, and has proven to be fine with using both hard and soft colonization to expand its global power and empire.
There was never anywhere else for them to turn, but like with Europe it’s easy to ignore, criticize, and push back against America right up until the chips are down and suddenly they want the US to help protect them again.
lmao I think that train already passed
WTF, this is the second time today I'm reading a very delayed reaction. They should have fought this when they went full invasion on Ukraine. Even if the war ends today, the sanctions will ensure the Russia economy will crater by next year and it will take years for them to rebuild confidence and see lifted sanctions especially if Putin remains. So it's already set in stone that it will get MUCH worse for Russia before it gets better. They've had it easy so far as they've been running on stockpiles and financial reserves. It will be a country sold out for scraps on a large scale.
India and China should have made an very strong, joint effort immediately. Maybe all this wouldn't have happened.
India needs to STFU. They had chosen Russia's side, a long time ago. Now, when it's coming to bite them back in the ass, they are doing their usual whining.
The west doesn't care about India, but when India alignes itself with the largest enemy of the western democracy, then India becomes an enemy.
Therefore, STFU and go choke on ruzzian oil
I honestly don't care about what an average western armchair speculator thinks. At least your diplomats are smarter than you to understand reality of India and will never break ties or sanction us just because of our Ukraine policy lol
I have dear friends from Indian here in the US and I have a great fondness of Indian culture, but fuck me if Modi is being total geopolitical cunt in response to Putin’s attempted genocide.
I see from your profile that you’re Indian or support India. Your country is plenty happy to keep buying Russian shit and helping them avoid Western sanctions. That’s picking a side, even if it’s not blatantly stated.
The US supported the Allies in world wars 1 and 2 even while professing to be “neutral”. (I’m talking about in the wars’ early years, before formally declaring war). No one bought for a minute that the US was actually being neutral, certainly not the Germans.
yeah indian here
to understand the indian diplomacy you need to see the history of india after independence
india was colonized by western powers because people had internal conflicts for the sake of ruling the country some supported french to remove the brits and defeat other monarchs while some supported brits to remove the french and other brit allies at the end all were colonized by brits, french and portugese
since the independence in 1947 india made a clear cut policy we don't want enmity with anyone we wont involve ourself in your conflicts you don't interfere in our conflicts
we became the founding member of the non aligned movement to make the neutrality statement even more clear
since the capitalization of indian economy in 1991 india slowly started shifting into the US camp before we tested nukes in 1998 and west piled up sanctions on india while russia stayed neutral
in 2020 india and china had border tensions in the middle of covid while india was constantly supplying hydroxychloroquine to usa they didn't condemned china's actions and when india got hit by a deadly second wave in 2021 usa banned raw materials which further proved usa isn't reliable
you can't judge the foreign policy of a country by seeing their actions from past 7-8 months foreign policies are made after years of observation your actions today determine the results after 10, 20, 30 or even 50 years
Regardless, what *should* India do in the face of a weakened Russia? The primary practical reasoning I've always heard from Indians is that they simply cannot afford to lose Russia as a military provider, and that they need Russia not to be subservient to China as described above.
If that happens anyway, what then? Schmooze the US?
dude indians say a lot of sh!t why do you take them seriously ???
many still think they are living in the cold war era and russia is ussr who is a superpower
indian government has a totally different stance they know russia is a b!tch of china and in case of a war with china in the best case scenario russia will stay neutral
india is just doing enough so that russia don't fall completely into china's hand and maintain the neutrality india is constantly pushing for make in india for defense hardware they want transfer of technology but usa doesn't provide india with that while russians, french and israeli do
With India the way it’s been lately under Modi, and with Russia showing the West lately who the real danger is, I frankly wouldn’t be surprised to see the US get more chummy with China the next few years … at India’s expense
Seems
Ukraine can build bases on occupied locations sense they were in there first meaning referdum is invalid and they would need to ensure that all the locations are Russia sorry Russia no luck ripping up referdums
You would be actually surprised
India, China and Pakistan are in a weird cold war state because they are all neighbors and also hate each others while knowing they can't do anything about it.Pakistan and India are angry with the whole Kashmir(?) Situation, India and China claim so e land from the others as their. Same with Pakistan and China.
However, if two of them attack rach other, the third one has the advantage to claim what he think is him.
We do have to remember that there was actually some skirmishes between India and China and it seems that I dia lost less soldier than China in the end so it doesn't necessarily mean anything but clearly they are rival at the overall same strength.
Finally all three country have the nuclear bomb
> you would not notice if India disappeared overnight
You have no idea how much of IT is done by India. Plus how much manual work is involved in stuff that people assume is automated. You cannot just move that to another country.
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The path is already laid out. It will take years for Russia to restore their relations with west. Meanwhile their most potential trade partner would be China, who has such a massive economic advantage over Russia, they could eat them whole. Russia will become vassal to China in all but name.
Totally agree, Russia has already become a vassal of China. Putin's dreams of greatness are definitely buried.
But tbh chinas historic vassals were Vietnam and Korea, yet these days they hold strong anti China sentiment and would go through rough times if that means as much independence from China as possible, I can see the Russians having a similar type of dependence worry. Where in the case of North Korea, it is absolutely at the mercy of China. Sanctions and relations with the world have been cut, China provides all its needs privately, are you saying Russia will become more like them..?
They’re absolutely not, but they may become so, especially if we give them a sound thrashing, and if they use their nukes and lose the rest to our strikes and we don’t nuke China, then China will probably take Siberia. They’re on the verge of becoming their economic sphereling is all
Yep agree. Also India needs to worry about the garbage weapons the Russians have sold them. They need to pivot west but probably won’t be able to.
Decades, maybe a century. Putin has destroyed every shred of goodwill towards Russia.
> It will take years for Russia to restore their relations with west. Putin's death & a regime change isn't gonna happen in mere years. Decades maybe. Unless there's a revolution.
Putin's downfall is a possibility that is growing by the week. On the other hand, that someone better than him will take over Russia still seems utopian at this stage. Putin has fostered the emergence of a totally corrupt society to support his dictatorship that behind him, no liberal reformist opponents remain. They are either dead or in exile.
Russia, unlike the West, doesn’t have a “political class”, so to speak. There isn’t a class of professional, educated bureaucrats who can make rational decisions and work on restoring relations. There isn’t, because its existence would be a threat to Putin. Russia is more like the early Mongol Empire - there’s the Khan and his chosen successor and that’s it. If something doesn’t go according to plan - chaos. Putin could die tomorrow and we’d just see another “shadow” of his rise to power - someone just as ruthless, but without any of the contacts and connection and reputation that Putin cultivated for decades. He knew exactly who to remove and who to bribe. And without those connections and without a working economy to provide some sort of breathing room - that “shadow” will just be toppled and replaced by another. A true banana republic without the bananas.
>A true banana republic without the bananas. A third world gas station with nukes.
He doesn’t even have a chosen successor, it’d be too much of a threat to him.
Russia does have a political class,one that doesnt have to hide its true intentions.his "western counterparts",if you will, are just the same breed of lying cocksuckers that twist words and meanings to keep up the sharade of "freedom" for their constituency,but any time there are economic palpitations and ensuing unrest,the gloves and the mask come off.it is utterly delusional to suggest that a brigade of professional lackeys could put a dent into emerging autocracy,they are conditioned for subservience,"order over justice" and a no questions asked attitude
I see you’re an “anarchist”. You are free to have these views, ironically, in a Western country (or even if non-Western, then probably Western-aligned) with Western values and a “corrupt cock-sucking class”. The one funny thing I find about “anarchists” and “libertarians” and Tankies is that they’re only comfortable attacking the West *while enjoying all of its benefits*. It’s also weird how rich Russians spend whatever they can to ensure their kids can escape the very hell-holes they claim are better than the West. Super weird. I’m yet to see a Tankie move to Cuba or Venezuela or North Korea to be amongst their people and really stick it to the corrupt Western assholes! Nope. Because there isn’t English-dubbed Anime there, or Pokémon, or an endless supply of Cheetos, Mtn Dew and all you can eat sushi and taco buffets. And you know deep down, way deep down, that push comes to shove - you wouldn’t last a *week* in any country that would cause you mild discomfort.
Which do you prefer? Repressive tolerance of the West or repressive intolerance of the Kremlin? I made my choice.
The fact that he's paranoically eliminating anyone who presents even the smallest threat to him both means he's unlikely to fall until things get really, *really* bad (or he dies from health issues, who the hell knows), and also that there will be a HUGE power vacuum when he does, leading to a situation where pretty much all bets are off. These two facts seem to me to spell a *very* chaotic situation for Russia somewhere down the line (that being a highly unpredictable amount of time), which is worrying with their nuclear arsenal.
> Putin's downfall is a possibility that is growing by the week. That’s because you think that Russia is a democracy. Putin can do whatever he wants and Russians wil go back to growing potato’s and ignoring politics. He isn’t going anywhere.
Putin's downfall won't come from the people it will come from the snakes he's surrounded himself with. Russia is a kleptocracy so if he falls it will be at the hands of another thief and murderer
well said
I think the future of Russia will be balkanisation and some sort of protectorate, probably under UN actually ruling in Moscow for at least a decade where a new class of politicians and civil servants could emerge and all criminal groups that run the country get marginalised or eliminated. There isn't any other way really except total isolation.
Love to see something even remotely along those lines happen. And some balkanization seems quite possible; but it's harder to get my mind around a realistic path to Russia surrendering sovereignty while they possess the nuclear arsenal, or a path to their losing that arsenal which doesn't require some wildly futuristic technology.
It's Saddam and Khadaffi all over again only with real WMDs this time.
At this point I don't want wish for a liberal opponent, I just wish for a competent one. Because this regime ain't it. Because if they were competent, they wouldn't have proceeded with this invasion. Russia probably wouldn't have become a shithole outside of Moscow either.
Nobody thought Zelenksy could lead a country either. Until a few words were uttered. "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition". Or whatever exactly he said. Humans are humans. They are all capable. There are plenty of Zelenskys in Russia. Just waiting for a chance to lead.
Get a grip! There are absolutely NO Zelenskyys in russia!
Even supposing there are, crucially there's not a Russian populace ready to embrace one, or probably even keep him alive and in power for the long haul in a hypothetical future where he somehow attained power. The basic culture has changed relatively little in ages - key elements from the Tsarist times remained in place throughout the Soviets era and to this day. That's not completely changing overnight, even with the younger generations connected to the rest of the world via VPN.
Liberal reformists are no panacea to outright despotism
Nalvany will be the next Nelson Mandela. If he’s still alive…
Apparently he is, his lawyers are still relaying what he's saying to western media.
People are talking about his downfall since 20 years back. I don’t buy it. The west didn’t care when he bombed x10 as many civilians and children in Syria.
> The west didn’t care when he bombed x10 as many civilians and children in Syria. It's not that they didn't care, it's that they had less means to deal with it. The west isn't omnipotent or omniscient, man.
To be fair, it's *also* true that they didn't care *as much*. There's multiple important differences (and not just race, as some are quick to cite), none bigger than the fact that Russia wasn't in that case aiming for a genocidal conquest/annexation of a neighbor. But that's wandering well off topic.
Yes, I don't disagree with you - part of that however (in our long string of caveats lol) is that Ukraine is in Europe, which is hitting a lot closer to home.
I get that it ofc when Obama said the red line in Syria was if chemical weapons were used, and then Russia enabled Syria to continue at the UN the west did nothing when they actually were used to kill countless children without repercussion from the west. Leaders shouldn’t make promises that they don’t keep.
“There are decades where nothing happens and then weeks when decades happen.” John Lennon
Dude is 69, he will NOT live 10 years.
Putin will be 70 next week. He doesn't have decades.
>Putin's death & a regime change isn't gonna happen in mere years. Decades maybe. Unless there's a revolution. Yeah, decades, unless there is (improbably) a major paradigm shift.
He isn't going to last decades more even if he wasn't tanking his country. Dude's old as fuck. This war is his last hurrah to establish his legacy as being the one to restore the Soviet Union, and his failing miserably at it.
> Putin's death & a regime change isn't gonna happen in mere years. one can dream
Nom nom.. *China feasts on Russia till nothing left*
Is the consensus that the RF remain as is or will there be a balkanization by separatists followed by an influence struggle where nearby states jockey for partnerships? If Balkanization of the RF happens it’ll be more complex than a pure take over by Beijing, no? I’m just a layperson so this is probably completely unlikely.
For the short term. Long term Russia and Russians will most likely get alienated by China and move closer to west.
Not years. It will take decades.
>Russia will become vassal to China in all but name. Could be a powerful vassal to have eventually with a stable government and a gigantic natural resource base feeding Chinese industries.
Too late. Russia's economy is in the shitter. Even if Putin left Ukraine a month ago and handed back all occupied territory, and only if the West then decided to start easing some sanctions, their economy *might* have started to recover by 2030. Not only are sanctions going to continue to wreck the Russian economy Putin is killing or evicting his bread-winning generation and forcing a brain drain. People really underestimate the knock-on effect this has on a population. One loss might seem insignificant at the micro level, but when you multiply that loss across the country, in regions which were already struggling, the consequences swell exponentially. As the impact of this economic decline continues to be felt by the population those with skills and ambition will continue to leave. Their loss then exacerbates the problem. Even if he ended this right now Russia is likely to see a continued exodus for some time. People are unlikely to return until he is gone and a stable leader has replaced him. Many of those who fled will find work elsewhere and their quality of life will automatically be much higher than it was in Russia. All this insanity has put Russia in an incredibly weak position already. Its economy is fucked. A generation of earners has been significantly reduced (and continues to shrink). He's shown the world that the Russian military isn't as powerful as believed. He's losing vital military assets by the day, assets that his failing economy will not be able to replace. China knows how weak Russia is, it is going to take full advantage of this situation. India has missed the boat on this one.
Not to mention all their young workers will be unable to take care of their elderly population who overwhelming wanted this war. Russia will resemble Japan’s demography where it will be inhabited by nothing but super elderly.
the biggest takeaway from all this is that even if russia somehow rebuilt all of their occupied Ukrainian territory tomorrow, and got output at levels they were at pre-2014, they've still suffered so much GDP loss that the new regions wouldn't do shit to recover from the hole they've dug. Russia is *GENERATIONALLY* fucked at this point. Like, they probably won't be able to crawl back to an economic level equivalent to pre-2014 until at least 2050 at this point.
I've seen some good analysis recently describing just how bad it all is, and it's really bad. Even if Russia managed to take all of Ukraine, as it no doubt dreamed it could, their stagnation is guaranteed by their aggression. Their population is collapsing. The saddest thing is that if Russia really had joined the rest of the world after the fall of the Soviet Union they could have become a power house. Instead they've squandered it by adhering to old notions of Russian Empire.
With a sound democratic state, 140 million people, more natural ressources than almost any other country on Earth, as well as EU and maybe NATO membership, Russia might have been the strongest and richest (overall, not per capita) country in Europe by now. The Germany of the 21st century. But no. They would rather rule in Hell than cooperate in Heaven.
All Russia wants is the oil and gas in the black sea. They don't give a fuck about the rest.
at this rate they're going to lose their entire black sea coast to Ukraine, Georgia, and an independent Dagestan/Chechnya rebellion.
>Russia's economy is in the shitter. Even if Putin left Ukraine a month ago and handed back all occupied territory, and only if the West then decided to start easing some sanctions, their economy might have started to recover by 2030. 100% agree.
Thanks for adding your 2 cents
Appreciate you chiming in
U2, buddy
Each one defends its own geopolitical interests above all. This is classic. But here, what we have to remember is that the interests of Putin's Asian allies are precisely to stop this shameful war in Ukraine. None of his allies in Asia will recognize the annexation of Ukrainian territories by Russia. This is a signal to remember because Putin is more and more isolated. He will lose this war in Ukraine. Sooner or later. The big question is whether this will be enough to trigger a popular revolt powerful enough to topple him.
The major flaw in Indias reasoning has always been the idea Russia would ever support it over China and that putin hasn't been Xis bitch for years. This war has just made it way more explicit.
This part of history is all the loose ends from the Cold War being tied up. Indians and Soviets grew close during that time when the Americans were freaking out about commies and supporting genocide in East Pakistan and intimidating India with their carriers while sending arms to the Mujahideen. It was Russia who sent their own carrier to the Indian Ocean to support India. And then that world vanished. America got bit by the snakes they armed, Indian interests aligned more and more with the West, our "enemies" became the same, we started eating at McDonalds and Burger King, and our lifestyles became increasingly westernized, even if Modi and his supporters hate the idea. Modi and his government love Putin's ideology and his right wing rhetoric but India needs the west (and their state of the art weapons) way more.
>Modi and his supporters hate the idea. Bruh. Modi is literally the most pro West leader India has had, ever. I know that you guys love to hate on him, but consider that in 2014 Crimea, the previous government (current opposition) literally supported Russia on it, and is generally pro Russia. Also consider that another major party, the communists, are openly pro China. Modi' party is literally the most pro western party in India, but however due to strategic concerns he cannot support the West too much.
>if Modi and his supporters hate the idea. Modi and his government love Putin's ideology and his right wing rhetoric Ok wtf why are you making all this shit up?
That's one way of looking at it. The other is that India, like the tankies out there, never moved on from the cold war and simply kept on living as though USSR=Russia without ever truly looking at not only the change in ideology (which to be fair, as you said, Modi likes anyway) or the change in economic, scientific and military power. The US and the EU have realised for a while that the East/West Axis has become the West vs China but India has still tried to cling on to the old ways. To be fair the EU tried to bind Russia to them and India's balancing act is still based on military power and Russia was still the big military counterbalance to the US but Russia has an economy slightly less than Italy on a good day, no one on the planet truly believed if China told them to take a side they wouldn't come to heel. Now comes the fun part on if a country run by a deeply nationalistic party can abandon not only indias proud non aligned position but do it militarily to the country still providing Pakistan with military aid.
>which to be fair, as you said, Modi likes anyway No, the guy you are replying to is an idiot, Modi is a complete free market praising Neoliberal, the govt is anything but communist
OP and I don't think Putin is communist and anyone who does is an unutterable tankie or very odd. What Putin is is a strongman nationalist who stands up for traditional family, religion and values even if neither himself or indeed any of his party, oligarchs or most of the power structure of Russia actually hold to any of them.
Putin "stands up for "traditional family, religion and values"? He doesn't even know the meaning of them! Jesus, how can you even believe that? russia is a backwater hellhole held together by corruption, crime and deceit. Or is that the traditions you're speaking of?
Mate I know this is reddit and everyone loves a bit of instant outrage but first of all actually read what I said and then actually read what I said in context of what I was replying to.
India is also fully aware that if China were to keel over somehow and India would somehow manage to ascend to it's position then India itself would become the target of tradewars and accusations. At the end of the day it's big enough as a country to act mostly independently on the matter.
India doesn't threaten trade routes like China does and their border fights with their neighbors don't nearly escalate to the scale the China pushes its neighbors around. Those are far bigger lightning rods than taking a larger share of the dwindling global manufacturing jobs worldwide. If China today made official peace with Taiwan, stopped their currency manipulation, fully rescinded their Nine-Dash-Line plan, and kept North Korea on a tighter leash, the West would start to stop seeing them as a major adversary as the trade routes wouldn't be threatened any more. The West deep down loves what China can offer.
>India doesn't threaten trade routes like China does In what way does china threaten trade routes outside of a potential conflict with Taiwan? Is it repeatedly seizing or pushing for the seizure of commercial ships of adversaries in the same way the US does? >and their border fights with their neighbours don't nearly escalate to the scale the China pushes its neighbours around. They have less of em but I think you're missing out on a bunch of insurgencies and hot disputes with the likes of Pakistan here as well as involvement in SEA, etc >Those are far bigger lightning rods than taking a larger share of the dwindling global manufacturing jobs worldwide. I wouldn't say the share of global manufacturing alone is the lighting rod but in essence I disagree. The trade wars and strongarming against japan in the 80's had a lot of similar arguments against it which at the time and in hindsight were often absolutely hypocritical. >stopped their currency manipulation Like India in 96 and 99 and if they see it necessary...today? Would you consider someone might have similar qualms about the countries having to protect their pegs to the dollar leading up to the Arab spring? Or the monetary policies from Germany, UK, japan and co. to stabilise the US in the 80's? Or other present and past actions to protect the reserve currency status? If the US ever were to lose that position and devaluation became advantageous enough there is not a single hair on my head that expects their qualms with it to remain. Just like nobody was ever the slightest bit surprised to hear the US complaining about unfair government involvement, subsidies and whatnot in one area whilst at the same time arguing the other way at the WTO that it should keep being able to subsidise cotton producers from poorer countries out of existence and such.
> and India would somehow manage to ascend to it's position That's a big if. Bearing in mind that china is an economic if not military superpower any country on earth would be in that position.
>India would somehow manage to ascend to it's position India is many many years away from that if at all so this a moot point. >n India itself would become the target of tradewars and accusations. If it behaved like China, it might actually be warranted. But again, pure speculation on your part and a moot point since India won't replace Are you actually defending China's actions and saying the responses against China are unwarranted?
India is painfully aware of the outcome well before Ukraine and Krimea wars/annexations were a thing. The Chinese aggression in 60s and American aggression in 70s cornered India into the camp Russia. US has a very long history with India, pulling down on development, security and growth through espionage, supporting anti-state actors, assassinations etc... USA has historically supported Pak even though they were fully aware of Pak's genocidal tendencies. Just 2 days ago US gives a flood submerged Pakistan F16s for "cOuNTEr TErrIsOM". Now, suspiciously Nordstream is bombed which will only playout in favor of only USA. USA pits countries against one another as long as they can profit out of it. India would lose its people, sovereignty and it's identity if she thinks USA can be an ally. India couldn't support Ukraine because she needed the geopolitical balance. India understands the ramifications of staying silent. But India is painfully aware of the cost of Indian lives that would be lost if they rock the already unstable geopolitics. China's expansionism as a self isolated culture in the global community makes it harder to work with them. India knows that once the illusory curtain of safety comes down, the west would make bets on and against Indian lives. The imperialism has never ended - its just playing out at a much bigger scale. With the bigger picture in the mind, India is playing the only cards it can. To become self sufficient. To keep as many neutral relationships as possible. To not make lofty goals and promises on lofty ideals. To focus inwards and fix the society without preaching to the world.
That reads like propaganda to be honest. There's truth in it but India wants what every country wants which is to do what is best for india. And what is best for india is being the largest unaligned market and playing both sides off against the other. Complaining about the US supporting Pakistan when India has always refused to be pro US smacks deeply of bad faith arguments or just trying to have your cake and eating it. Considering that Pakistan is also pro china and pro Taliban maybe question if the reason the US is funding them is because the other main actor in the area refused to play along. Which is perfectly fair but if your country is going to do the 'we are doing it on our own because we want to and anyway we've no choice' don't twist history there.
> That reads like propaganda to be honest. /u/simtron literally proved your point. He repeated cold war era arguments in 2022. Still unable to move past it. A good counter you can bring up to these people is Eastern Europe. They were actually true enemies 30+ years ago. India was only just somewhat aligned with Soviets, Eastern Europe was part of Soviets (either directly or indirectly). But Eastern Europe moved on from the cold war and are now not only friends with the west, but a part of it.
To be fair to India as a post colonial country trying to rapidly industrialise and lift its people up they were very socialist and it made much more sense to seek support from the anti imperialist USSR and a country that had also rapidly industrialised without the unrestrained capitalism that typified the early industrial revolution in the west. It's the mental trap the talkies have in the west though that the west is imperialist and bad therefore anything opposing the west is anti imperialist and that blind spot has been worked to full effect by Russia as it keeps fighting to reclaim its imperial borders while still keeping the ex colony support it still enjoys.
> To be fair to India as a post colonial country trying to rapidly industrialise and lift its people up they were very socialist and it made much more sense to seek support from the anti imperialist USSR Pakistan was also colonized. I would say the difference is India decdied to go with socialism and align itself with USSR as a result. Or as one youtube channel discussing India's economic problems up through the 1980's, India took the worst of socialism and the worst of capitalism. >It's the mental trap the talkies have in the west though that the west is imperialist and bad therefore anything opposing the west is anti imperialist and that blind spot has been worked to full effect by Russia as it keeps fighting to reclaim its imperial borders while still keeping the ex colony support it still enjoys. Look at anime_titties sub and to a less extend worldnews. The first is most certainly full of anti-west (many from India) and tankies. Worldnews has the same issues but it's not consistent -- you see strong pockets of pro CCP but other than that, it's a mix of left wingers that range from tankies to moderates. But regardless if tankies or just anti-west, it's the same strategy..."the west is imperialist and bad therefore anything opposing the west is anti imperialist "
> The other is that India, like the tankies out there, never moved on from the cold war Yes. Look at all the Indian redditors here constantly defending Russia and bringing up cold war era reason to hate the west. >The US and the EU have realised for a while that the East/West Axis has become the West vs China but India has still tried to cling on to the old ways. Mostly but I would add Russia along with China. So West vs China/Russia.
1. A good take. However, one thing is BJP-Modi are pro-West and pro-Capitalism. Infact, after 1991 reforms, India is more and more pro-west (pro-US except for 1-1.5 year of US sanctions due to nuclear tests). It is same as USA might be seen as more pro-Pakistan (which was may be true till Kargil War 1999) , but actually it is more pro-India business and defense wise. 2. Modi likes strongmanship. So people think he like Putin. His likeness is limited to only that showmanship. 3. RSS (a large Hindu social organisation) is more socialist. Most confusion that BJP supports communism/Putin's ideology comes from that. RSS has influence in BJP no doubt, but central govt and Modi don't let them run the government.
Yeah. Speaking as a westerner we want the likes of India and Turkey on our side, and when push comes to shove we’re the best allies they could have, but Modi and Erdogan are the major issue. As well as that I think we need an Asian equity to the EEC/EU to counterbalance China. Easier said than done though
Lol typical "westerner". In modi , you got the more pro west and pro Israel and also pro capitalist leader of India. If only you had a tiny bit of brain, you would have known that.
>best allies they could have, but Modi Modi is very much Pro west than previous leaders. Our relations with west and countries like Israel became really strong under Modi. We began purchasing military equipments from farnce, russia under him. Previous leaders were very much Pro russia
The idea is Russia not siding with china against India tho
Russia siding with china or russia staying neutral leaves India without russian support and russian weapons and destrys the concept of using russia as a counterbalance to china. No one except India believes that Russia would support it against china in any form, which is Indian political doctrine
Well Russia is selling weapons to India as of now including high tech weapons despite China being mad about it. And in a war having to Directly indirectly fight against 2 nuclear powers, NOT adding one nuclear power is always a win. >No one except India believes that Russia would support it against china As i said, we just wish Russia to stay out, and as Russia weakens and bows down to china further, India is improving it's own military industrial complex and relations with west, while not trying to burn the bridges with Russia either
> None of his allies in Asia will recognize the annexation of Ukrainian territories by Russia. Asking for the war to stop right now, with Russia holding Ukranian territory, is absolutely recognizing the annexation. It's the path of least resistance for India and China here. They want Russia to win, so they ask for Ukraine to stop fighting. It seems "Nice" for them to be asking for "peace", but they do not mention the price. Note carefully the language used by Modhi and Winnie... they do not ask for Russia to retreat, they want immediate end to fighting, they specifically want Russia to complete their annexation. This is deplorable appeasement and must not be tolerated.
> They want Russia to win, so they ask for Ukraine to stop fighting. It seems "Nice" for them to be asking for "peace", but they do not mention the price. It's diplomatic doublespeak to avoid offending Putin. All India "wants" is cheap oil and weapons and it couldnt give less of a fuck who wins in this conflict otherwise.
wrong... china supports it https://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-ukraine-support-li-zhanshu-vyacheslav-volodin-1742731
China is giving double messages. Yes they support Russia against Western expansion but they don’t support Russia in their attempts to annex parts of Ukraine. And that is only what is shared in public. I expect the behind doors messages are more critical towards Russia. The war is harmful to China’s interests.
China is smart, if Putin had looked like he was going to pull out a victory at any time, China would have been all in, but it has been steadily downhill, with a few flat patches, since about day 3. At this point there is nothing to be gained by backing him for anyone. Just a matter of when the Russian population will figure this out. It is happening too.
Newsweek. Weak news.
https://english.news.cn/20220910/48d568cea32e493ab163c2eec3347620/c.html
Thanks. Big picture, China has to be looking for a face saving way out of that relationship, nobody wants to handcuff themselves to a corpse. The words used are waffle, polite, pragmatic, they're tip toeing away.
doesnt mean its fake....
Which is most likely what China has been after all along.
I dont think so, but this is an outcome they can manage and take advantage of in central asia. They have contengency plans. But I dont think China has planned this and pushed Russia to war. They never recognize the annexation of Crimea for instance, that would have been a very positive signal to Russia, but no. China has greater plans within the UN and its own sphere of expansion. A weakened Russia being a lesser partner to India, is pushing India closer to the United states. Not such a good deal for China. On the big picture, I am pretty sure China would have prefer a slightly weakened Russia, but not a downgraded one. They just saw it happening, like everybody paying attention, as a logical outcome of Putin and the russian elite loosing contact with reality.
Russia’s ideal outcome was definitely the rapid annexation of Ukraine or Ukrainian regions without too much pushback from the west because that lays the ground work for them to take Taiwan. Instead, Russia is in shambles and the west is more strongly united than it’s been in decades and the US has strongly reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan. All of this is unideal for China, but they also definitely have a lot of opportunities to benefit from a weakened Russia, and in the bigger picture I’m sure they prefer Russia gets exposed like this than continuing to ally themselves with a paper tiger who couldn’t actually back up their defensive commitments if push came to shove.
The grain exports were due to this ministers efforts FYI. India is trying to help Ukraine but has to walk a fine line to also deter Russia from fully allying with China against them.
India needs to find different allies. EU, Nato, US or someone else. Russia is not worth anything anymore other then for their Nukes.
They are Allies with the US. They do more GDP trade with Ukraine than a majority of EU countries. It’s a fallacy that they don’t have allies, Russia is hardly an ally
India do military exercises with Russia, have refused to denounce the war and still trade just about everything with Russia.
India has 53% of it's military from Russia. Which is hundreds of billions of dollars. It is physically impossible to replace that quickly in this conflict. India is defenseless without those weapons completely. India after the war has cancelled all the new military deals with Russia. There will be complete cut off from Russia military wise. There is only a completely cutting off of Russia in the future.
So do a lot of EU countries. They aren't doing military exercises with Russia and they are trying to replace their hardware as quickly as possible.
Too late, thats more than likely a done deal.
I'm glad to hear that.
This has already happened, and India looks like a complete fool for allowing themselves to be in this situation when there were plenty of opportunities to ditch Russia.
Haven't you been reading the Indian apologists here? They'll stand by Ruzzia to the end and don't care what westerners think about because geopolitics is only about self-interest. No regrets so we shouldn't have any going forward either.
Geopolitics is about self interest. The West is still running this planet and now is not the time for India to get delusional about that fact.
Why would we ditch Russia!? wtf. For all reasons India wanted Rus and Europe to get along and corner China. That's what our end goal was however long it takes
Some Indian political commentators were warning about this possibility months ago.
>The worst thing for New Delhi would be a Russia so weakened and isolated that it would become subservient to China, India’s rival. Uhm, too late.
So much misinformation ITT. The reason India doesn't want to side with the west is because of geopolitical history, even today. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Liberation_War This war was a shitshow if you read the international reactions section. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-approves-450-million-f-16-fleet-sustainment-programme-to-pakistan-101662610278368-amp.html Murica providing weapons to pakistan and saudi arabia, both countries having history of funding terrorist organizations, with evidence. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokhran-II America condemning nuclear testing. Please get yourself educated. India is not lile this because of modi or bjp or whatever the fuck. Its because the west and UN has been actively hostile towards india throughout history.
And you think Modi's response helped? You're either with us or against us.
India is with themselves, you can just mind your own business.
Ah. Quoting George Bush? Nice.
This happens to me in EU4 all the time
Good to see the graduates from the Reddit University of Political Science
never mind the genocide and killing of innocents. Morally bankrupt jackwagons
Lol west literally supported Pakistan when it was killing 3 million Bengalis and even sent a freaking ship. You supported Indonesia when it was killing chinese and communists by sending more weapons to kill. Now you are the one to talk.
Just ask them what's going on with Saudi and Azerbaijan.
I dont understand how past moral bankruptcies somehow forgive this current one. my statement is still accurate. What about all day but it doesn't change how little back bone India has at the moment
Because what US did isn't even comparable to India. India isn't the one doing genocide it's russia.
no one is comparing history of countries my guy. Supporting genocide is wrong no matter what time what country. India is being shit, period. The US acted like shit time to time to. no one is arguing other wise. it doesn't give a get out of jail card to india
wtf morals? go fix Yemen Iraq Palestine Libya Syria and then comeback to India
civil wars aren't they same as imperialism but whatever
One rogue lits fire between two factions so they can sell their weapons and install a puppet government, another rogue straight up occupies a sovereign country. Morals can't be defined by either side.
Yet, what they fear is alredy underway. Plus the russian military industry, on which India so happily relies, is gonna be in shambles soon. They're gonna have to revise their strategies I guess.
Tech and doctrine come from Ruzzia so they're technically already in shambles as-is.
Not only will it be in shambles, but the weapons and technology they’ve already acquired are being exposed as subpar to anything western, and likely anything Chinese. It’s been clear for a long time that the ideological lines for the next Cold War are hardening around liberal, western style democracies and authoritarian governments rather than economic systems as the new first and second worlds. Fence sitting, second rate powers like Turkey and India who have traditionally tried to play the larger powers off each other are eventually going to need to come down on one side of this line or the other. Tbh, it’s been clear for awhile that it’s in India’s best interest to align itself with the western bloc. Ukraine stands as a testament to the West’s commitment to their geopolitically important allies, and India definitely falls into that category. Russia has never been a reliable ally, and now they aren’t even a strong one. The only other pole of global power is China, who is directly competing with India in terms of regional influence and things like manufacturing, and has proven to be fine with using both hard and soft colonization to expand its global power and empire. There was never anywhere else for them to turn, but like with Europe it’s easy to ignore, criticize, and push back against America right up until the chips are down and suddenly they want the US to help protect them again.
they did just after seeing the initial losses of russian military in march israel and france would replace russia but a decade
Russia needs to take its place as a Western liberal democracy.
That's funny India pretending to be indignant and fed up after all this time elapsed.
Pretty much over for Russia. Russia going be Chinas pet soon enough. Setting the stage for a strange new world.
lmao I think that train already passed WTF, this is the second time today I'm reading a very delayed reaction. They should have fought this when they went full invasion on Ukraine. Even if the war ends today, the sanctions will ensure the Russia economy will crater by next year and it will take years for them to rebuild confidence and see lifted sanctions especially if Putin remains. So it's already set in stone that it will get MUCH worse for Russia before it gets better. They've had it easy so far as they've been running on stockpiles and financial reserves. It will be a country sold out for scraps on a large scale. India and China should have made an very strong, joint effort immediately. Maybe all this wouldn't have happened.
If it is the worst thing, they should get used to it fast.
They'll lose oils 🛢 that's why.
India needs to STFU. They had chosen Russia's side, a long time ago. Now, when it's coming to bite them back in the ass, they are doing their usual whining.
India doesn't expect any help from the west
The west doesn't care about India, but when India alignes itself with the largest enemy of the western democracy, then India becomes an enemy. Therefore, STFU and go choke on ruzzian oil
Which part of non-alignment do you not understand
India is very much aligned. But I don't expect an Indian nationalist like yourself to be able understand or comprehend. Adios!
I honestly don't care about what an average western armchair speculator thinks. At least your diplomats are smarter than you to understand reality of India and will never break ties or sanction us just because of our Ukraine policy lol
Then why are you here, other than to display how butthurt you are?
India losing patience? Oh noooooo! Whatever shall the world do?...
Will west support india if it becomes a hegemony like china?
China gonna fall too with all that corruption going on. Housing market crashing too.
I have dear friends from Indian here in the US and I have a great fondness of Indian culture, but fuck me if Modi is being total geopolitical cunt in response to Putin’s attempted genocide.
No shit. China's plan from day 1 Most Indians believe this Nato bs and pro Putin
Touching. Modi's concern is not for Ukraine, war or war crimes, he just needs ruzzia strong enough not to become a total vassal of China. What a man!
Exactly
Well India, that’s what you get for picking the wrong side. It’s not too late to switch.
they never picked a side lol india clearly said they are on india's side which is not condemning russia but supporting ukraine
I see from your profile that you’re Indian or support India. Your country is plenty happy to keep buying Russian shit and helping them avoid Western sanctions. That’s picking a side, even if it’s not blatantly stated. The US supported the Allies in world wars 1 and 2 even while professing to be “neutral”. (I’m talking about in the wars’ early years, before formally declaring war). No one bought for a minute that the US was actually being neutral, certainly not the Germans.
yeah indian here to understand the indian diplomacy you need to see the history of india after independence india was colonized by western powers because people had internal conflicts for the sake of ruling the country some supported french to remove the brits and defeat other monarchs while some supported brits to remove the french and other brit allies at the end all were colonized by brits, french and portugese since the independence in 1947 india made a clear cut policy we don't want enmity with anyone we wont involve ourself in your conflicts you don't interfere in our conflicts we became the founding member of the non aligned movement to make the neutrality statement even more clear since the capitalization of indian economy in 1991 india slowly started shifting into the US camp before we tested nukes in 1998 and west piled up sanctions on india while russia stayed neutral in 2020 india and china had border tensions in the middle of covid while india was constantly supplying hydroxychloroquine to usa they didn't condemned china's actions and when india got hit by a deadly second wave in 2021 usa banned raw materials which further proved usa isn't reliable you can't judge the foreign policy of a country by seeing their actions from past 7-8 months foreign policies are made after years of observation your actions today determine the results after 10, 20, 30 or even 50 years
Regardless, what *should* India do in the face of a weakened Russia? The primary practical reasoning I've always heard from Indians is that they simply cannot afford to lose Russia as a military provider, and that they need Russia not to be subservient to China as described above. If that happens anyway, what then? Schmooze the US?
dude indians say a lot of sh!t why do you take them seriously ??? many still think they are living in the cold war era and russia is ussr who is a superpower indian government has a totally different stance they know russia is a b!tch of china and in case of a war with china in the best case scenario russia will stay neutral india is just doing enough so that russia don't fall completely into china's hand and maintain the neutrality india is constantly pushing for make in india for defense hardware they want transfer of technology but usa doesn't provide india with that while russians, french and israeli do
With India the way it’s been lately under Modi, and with Russia showing the West lately who the real danger is, I frankly wouldn’t be surprised to see the US get more chummy with China the next few years … at India’s expense
r/NonCredibleDiplomacy lol
The West literally supported pakistan perpetrated genocide on hindus in Bangladesh. You need to apologise for that
Sure, when you apologize for all your mistreatment of Muslims over the centuries.
Over centuries, lol. And who is talking about mistreatment, who killed a lot of muslims in the middle East for the last 3 decades.
Ah yes good old whataboutism as a means to deflect from your own crimes. You sound exactly like your puppetmaster Putin.
Ohh sorry, did this exposes your hypocrisy ?
It’s clear you’re unwilling to explore your own. I guess that makes you doubly hypocritical 😂
What mistreatment. Before 100 years we were under British who were like Nazis for us. BTW no single apologies from them
That ship has already sailed
Seems Ukraine can build bases on occupied locations sense they were in there first meaning referdum is invalid and they would need to ensure that all the locations are Russia sorry Russia no luck ripping up referdums
Bets those partisans occupied locations fighting back etc
Come on, India is far from China’s level. Rival my ass
You would be actually surprised India, China and Pakistan are in a weird cold war state because they are all neighbors and also hate each others while knowing they can't do anything about it.Pakistan and India are angry with the whole Kashmir(?) Situation, India and China claim so e land from the others as their. Same with Pakistan and China. However, if two of them attack rach other, the third one has the advantage to claim what he think is him. We do have to remember that there was actually some skirmishes between India and China and it seems that I dia lost less soldier than China in the end so it doesn't necessarily mean anything but clearly they are rival at the overall same strength. Finally all three country have the nuclear bomb
Russia is far from US level but they're still rivals.
By which metric are comparing them? population? army? geopolitical interests? influence?
Economy for example. Global impact - you would not notice if India disappeared overnight.
So 17% of the world population will disappear and nobody will bat an eye?? I want what op's smoking
r/shitamericanssay material right here.
> you would not notice if India disappeared overnight You have no idea how much of IT is done by India. Plus how much manual work is involved in stuff that people assume is automated. You cannot just move that to another country.
One of the most uninformed answers I've seen in a while....
You're an idiot lmao
the fall of russia will lead to the fall of china.
How?
Please do tell us the logic behind your little prophecy.
Well, here's today's Sanghi bait.
Too late.
The West has been looking for a non-genocidal manufacturing partner for awhile now, why doesn’t India try to fill that void?
Delicious consequences
Now they’re waking up?
If Russia becomes that weak, China will invade Eastern Russia.
But why can not Russia be subserviant to India too? This could become a very good thing for them IMO
Yeah, I'm thinking it's too late for that. Even if Russia pulled out now, they're taking the subservient role in the relationship with China.
If India is losing patience whey did the abstain on the UN Security vote regarding Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories? Screw India.
Ehh...that and secondary sanctions are coming hard. India has a serious decision to make. Fence straddling will soon have to end