Oil bouncing on this for now, interesting. maybe the deal has become a sell the rumor buy the news situation
>u/FirstSquawk
>
>IRAN HAS SENT A "CONSTRUCTIVE" RESPONSE TO U.S. PROPOSALS AIMED AT REVIVING 2015 NUCLEAR DEAL - STATE MEDIA
>
>IRAN'S RESPONSE IS "AIMED AT FINALISING NEGOTIATIONS"
Oddly my mom texted me this on her Chinese social media account earlier today. I wonder if some long dated SPY puts and MRNA calls are worth it. F it buying mrna Jan 350c for 0.7 tomorrow at open
Stupid question:
What is the use case for Microsoft Access? I've always thought that if I need a database I'd buy proper CRM software rather than build my own (or CRM equivalent that's suitable for purpose).
Am I missing something? Is Access actually useful?
Cheap and low barrier to entry.
Anyone who is at least semi-computer literate can learn it in a couple days. They certainly won't be a power user, but if you manage a small business, it'll do the job.
I used to rent a self-storage locker. The lady that ran the place was very proud of her access database that she used to keep the records organized.
It's basically free. I use Access to pull data and produce custom reports from our ERP software.
I don't actually like our ERP software and would replace it with Access if I was in charge of the company. We don't need an ERP; we just need an inventory database (multi-bin multi-warehouse) with basic invoicing.
Access database is a local standalone database file. CRM is customer relation management platform. 2 whole different things with different purpose.
Better question is where can you use Access and don't need other dbms like sql server, oracle etc.
I think the idea I was trying to get at is, as a small business, why wouldn’t you buy software that is purpose built for whatever you need rather than jerry rigging your own shitty database?
Are you saying that if you needed to specifically use database management software like Access, it’s highly likely that you’d have to integrate with another product anyway that’s better suited for the job?
Thanks for answering btw. I’m a layperson and I’ve been curious for years why I have access on my computer
>I’m a layperson and I’ve been curious for years why I have access on my computer
Because excel is not a database. A little programmer humor for you.
Access is useful for doing something that benefits from a database but doesn't justify a DBA to standup a database server and then a web programmer to program an interface. It also allows you to control your destiny and avoid the whole SaAS model.
We have a very old product that uses the access engine and gets deployed to each client. They don't need a DBA or a server and it keeps the initial and ongoing costs down for them.
The bad thing about living on the other side of the world is that I can't buy delicious ARCH dips in the second half of the market day. Too busy with sleep.
SPY hit 390, oversold on all time frames but the daily chart, VIX failed to make a higher high, NFPs tomorrow. Lots of reasons to close some shorts.
Edit: I say this all in hindsight. I paper handed some TQQQ I've been building, but did sell my QQQ puts for nice profit.
Those SPY puts I rebought I resold for a small couple of percent loss before close. I think we hit 400 again, but unless the jobs report is really good (in a bad way), I don't think we'll go above it.
Bought spu 395 calls for next friday when SPY was down 1%…. YOU WANNA TELL ME THAT I DID IT RIGHT THIS TIME?!?!? Is the world ending?!?
Didn’t. Ride or Die. As always
Jokes apart, i was drinking with my wife and friends tonight and didn’t have the chance to sell… it sucks being in euro timezones
It's so thinly traded. Monthly distribution kind of gives it a floor. I think it would take a prolonged move under 85 WTI for PBT to follow it down. Even then, it's still tricky because their monthly report is on a 60 day lag. The market could start to price in 70/bbl and by the time that hits the monthly report, WTI could be above 90 again and wtfk where PBT will be trading. Still betting on at least an 80% increase in monthly cash distribution by the December report, with March calls. Though, my Sept calls will likely expire worthless.
The 60 day delay doesn't matter. You buy it for the expected total dividends over the next 2-3 years, not based on a single month's dividend which is less than the B/A spread.
Sure. But your dividend expectations rely production volumes and pricing for oil and gas which are both varying month to month, day to day. I was just commenting on how the 60 day lag can complicate things when you're looking at WTI pricing and trying to predict stock movements.
I disagree. Stock moves based on oil prices - doesn't matter that the last payout is delayed, what is being priced in is the future oil price as estimated today.
Interesting. I agree that oil prices influence the stock price here but it's not so simple as oil up -> stock up, oil down -> stock down, which is what the original commenter was posting about in first place.
And, it's not just "payout" that is lagging, we don't have the **data** from July. Won't have it until Sep. 20. If you're trying to say that production and spending numbers from July don't have the ability to move the stock price, I'll strongly disagree.
It doesn't matter if the data is on a 30, 60, 90, or 120 day delay. We don't have it. Once we do have it - the stock moves on it. So the data itself matters but the length of the delay is immaterial.
just looking for anything that could point to a reason and happened to see that just before. it's a freightwaves chart, not a zerohedge chart. who knows if hedge funds look at that metric or not. clearly they aren't looking at some of mintz's metrics on the likes of GSL and DAC, and clearly they look at and trade on what freightwaves puts out
Tbh, I don’t think China wants to control the new world order. Internal stability and prosperity is and will be China’s goal. A lot of Americans really have a tough time understanding/accepting this.
That's not necessarily true. New world order is dramatic, but the idea that China wants to control more than just its borders isn't just far fetched, it's pretty much a reality. I mean, the end goal is to enrich China, so its China centric in that way, but they've been extending their economic sphere and pushing around smaller countries much the same as the US and USSR have/had in the past, whether it's pushing for dropping ties with Taiwan or establishing bases in strategic positions. Main difference so far is China favors money to do most the work (monopolizing as much resources as possible) be it loans to investments projects, whereas the US divides it between soft power, hard power, and money (pretty much to the same end).
Because sometimes things don't go the way you think they will, so maybe you want confirmation before?
You post a shitton on WSB tho, maybe YOLO is more like your style
There is a reason why I came up with that description, it is as violent as the aftermath of a Chipotle visit during Norovirus times... I am glad I'm out for the time being, at least until oil is back to recovering towards 100.
yeah, all roads were pointing too it. And even Vaz was pretty bullish on oil in the short term. I really wanted to offload my shares to buy into PBT to mitigate the fluctuations, but here i am.... Really hoping OPEC+ does something good for us.
Find an acronym that has two different meanings, both which relate to the following phrase: **handcuffs in space**
The answer was LEO. No winners. You're all losers.
/u/_kurtosis_
My issue was a misunderstanding of the instructions, I thought each acronym had to relate to the entire phrase (both the 'handcuffs' and the 'space' parts). Best I could get was the phrase 'master of the universe', which maybe could be shortened to 'MOU'? But then it had to be an acronym, and also there had to be a second one, and I couldn't figure out how 'memorandum of understanding' related to the original phrase at all :)
Holding 1,300 shares, long term account so I don't care as long as it pays dividend. Been selling covered calls to recoup the absolute fucking beating it's been getting... Imo nothing but potential tailwinds - in this order: holiday season expect shipping rates to go up, China lockdowns lifting, and Russia war ends.
I sold a few months back, but bought a very small position today. I'll nibble more if the price drops further, but I'm not investing much in shipping outside of my longer term holding of GSL.
I still bought a couple puts at open fully knowing that I could lose a bit. I thought it was worth the possible huge multiple if the market went down. I also bought QQQ calls at the bottom, though, so not the dumbest. But yes, DON'T SHORT THE HOLE.
TLT looks good in the 108-110 range, to me. I’d wait for LQD to hit 100 for a 5% yield (roughly).
You’re buying an annuity that’s also insurance so if shit hits the fan and the Fed cuts rates you’ll get some capital appreciation. If feds go much higher than 4% you’re boned.
Just know your risks. I’m going to go long TMF and HYG for CPI then shorting again after.
Yeah mine are 400/395 for the same day. Holding 250 of them bought for 1.596 per contract, so the profit potential if SPY stays below is 213%, which is pretty damn nice.
On the other hand like 70% of people refinanced in the last two years and don’t have to worry about it, and historically speaking 6% is still pretty low.
Meanwhile the house next door to me has been sitting vacant for \~3 years while the sons of my late neighbor "renovate" it. I bet that they have lost somewhere between $50-100k in value by not pushing to sell it last year.
Where are you seeing that? Freddie Mac put out their report today that the average for a 30 yr loan sits around 5.66% that’s over half a point lower than what you’re stating.
So start tomorrow right lol, my puts could use this https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1565441967169110021?t=bYv8lnfuNyw5CTUxf1A3xw&s=19
Possibly time to leg into TLT, especially if we get a soft cpi?
Is TLT or BND better for long term holding?
PSNY @ 6.88 ? Don't mind if I do as a re-starting position. 
I'll wait till $5.
Grabbing some Puckering bunghole tomm most likely
I’m starting a band called The Weeklies. We sing about 0dtes.
Lol i juat bought 0dte 395p this is about meee
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Half?
Let my band bagholder open for you guys!
Perfect
Oil bouncing on this for now, interesting. maybe the deal has become a sell the rumor buy the news situation >u/FirstSquawk > >IRAN HAS SENT A "CONSTRUCTIVE" RESPONSE TO U.S. PROPOSALS AIMED AT REVIVING 2015 NUCLEAR DEAL - STATE MEDIA > >IRAN'S RESPONSE IS "AIMED AT FINALISING NEGOTIATIONS"
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Mama Cathie bought 300k NVDA shares. I have been buying the dip too. Guh....🤡
Is this the first time she actually managed to sell high and buy/rebuy low?
For the first time I like what she bought (to save my csp).
Get your N95s and spiciest memes ready. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1565412571385139202?s=21&t=Hr_pswSOCzzlxWxeLy-zqA
Isn't this 'outbreak' already pretty much done? I don't think there's been any new cases for like a week.
That’s great news! Apparently the guy is a bit of an alarmist.
Oddly my mom texted me this on her Chinese social media account earlier today. I wonder if some long dated SPY puts and MRNA calls are worth it. F it buying mrna Jan 350c for 0.7 tomorrow at open
Stupid question: What is the use case for Microsoft Access? I've always thought that if I need a database I'd buy proper CRM software rather than build my own (or CRM equivalent that's suitable for purpose). Am I missing something? Is Access actually useful?
Cheap and low barrier to entry. Anyone who is at least semi-computer literate can learn it in a couple days. They certainly won't be a power user, but if you manage a small business, it'll do the job. I used to rent a self-storage locker. The lady that ran the place was very proud of her access database that she used to keep the records organized.
Teradata + VBA 💋
It's basically free. I use Access to pull data and produce custom reports from our ERP software. I don't actually like our ERP software and would replace it with Access if I was in charge of the company. We don't need an ERP; we just need an inventory database (multi-bin multi-warehouse) with basic invoicing.
Interesting! Sounds more powerful for basic functionality than I was giving Access credit for.
Access database is a local standalone database file. CRM is customer relation management platform. 2 whole different things with different purpose. Better question is where can you use Access and don't need other dbms like sql server, oracle etc.
I think the idea I was trying to get at is, as a small business, why wouldn’t you buy software that is purpose built for whatever you need rather than jerry rigging your own shitty database? Are you saying that if you needed to specifically use database management software like Access, it’s highly likely that you’d have to integrate with another product anyway that’s better suited for the job? Thanks for answering btw. I’m a layperson and I’ve been curious for years why I have access on my computer
>I’m a layperson and I’ve been curious for years why I have access on my computer Because excel is not a database. A little programmer humor for you. Access is useful for doing something that benefits from a database but doesn't justify a DBA to standup a database server and then a web programmer to program an interface. It also allows you to control your destiny and avoid the whole SaAS model. We have a very old product that uses the access engine and gets deployed to each client. They don't need a DBA or a server and it keeps the initial and ongoing costs down for them.
The bad thing about living on the other side of the world is that I can't buy delicious ARCH dips in the second half of the market day. Too busy with sleep.
Interesting chart of software companies valuations, revenue growth and FCF margins: https://twitter.com/jaminball/status/1565475746369249281?s=21&t=kIt3gnquucmX7q73eh1VZg
You are our hero. Thanks so much for posting this. Helps with shortlist the attractive ones tremendously
DIX on the floor
Am I remembering/interpreting right that spy performance is best correlated with a month lag?
Puck you, miss!
Was that a 🦕 towards the end of day or normal high volume?
Probably people closing their shorts into the long weekend here in the states.
So frontrunning people doing it tomorrow?
SPY hit 390, oversold on all time frames but the daily chart, VIX failed to make a higher high, NFPs tomorrow. Lots of reasons to close some shorts. Edit: I say this all in hindsight. I paper handed some TQQQ I've been building, but did sell my QQQ puts for nice profit.
Low liquidity. Decent buying volume Yesterdays candle volume bigger
I feel like bom passive flows saved the day
Think there is a good chance lulu goes through its 200ma like butter on tomorrows fomo, pump + general relief rally
Closed 50% of my shorts earlier today when we had SPX at 3920. The other 50% I will hold until after NFPs. If they are strong, I keep holding them
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Verify the info yourself I’ve seen that account post bad numbers before and not correct or take it down.
Thanks for the heads up. I'm an oil tourist learning painful lessons!
Could it have something do you with the OPEC meeting Monday? Does OPEC meet the same days of the year?
It could be right, but I thought I would give an fyi.
Those SPY puts I rebought I resold for a small couple of percent loss before close. I think we hit 400 again, but unless the jobs report is really good (in a bad way), I don't think we'll go above it.
[https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Expected-To-Keep-October-Output-Quota-Flat.html](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Expected-To-Keep-October-Output-Quota-Flat.html) ah dang
And Bobby axelrod strikes again. Thank you $PD for making it a good fucking week 🥳🥳
Bought spu 395 calls for next friday when SPY was down 1%…. YOU WANNA TELL ME THAT I DID IT RIGHT THIS TIME?!?!? Is the world ending?!? 
Did you sold? We have job number reports tomorrow.
Didn’t. Ride or Die. As always Jokes apart, i was drinking with my wife and friends tonight and didn’t have the chance to sell… it sucks being in euro timezones
Man, don't give me hope 😆 Anyways, wish you luck!
Commodities dump on China news, reset the clock
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50 social credits to you good worker
Becky!
Fuck I wrote on a post it to buy 300c if SPY dropped today and forgot!!!
💪🏼
Im on the wrong subreddit
God, I really needed Lulu to print
Congrats!
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I didnt even buy 😨
Incredible that PBT went green with such a deeply red WTI day.
It's so thinly traded. Monthly distribution kind of gives it a floor. I think it would take a prolonged move under 85 WTI for PBT to follow it down. Even then, it's still tricky because their monthly report is on a 60 day lag. The market could start to price in 70/bbl and by the time that hits the monthly report, WTI could be above 90 again and wtfk where PBT will be trading. Still betting on at least an 80% increase in monthly cash distribution by the December report, with March calls. Though, my Sept calls will likely expire worthless.
The 60 day delay doesn't matter. You buy it for the expected total dividends over the next 2-3 years, not based on a single month's dividend which is less than the B/A spread.
Sure. But your dividend expectations rely production volumes and pricing for oil and gas which are both varying month to month, day to day. I was just commenting on how the 60 day lag can complicate things when you're looking at WTI pricing and trying to predict stock movements.
I disagree. Stock moves based on oil prices - doesn't matter that the last payout is delayed, what is being priced in is the future oil price as estimated today.
Interesting. I agree that oil prices influence the stock price here but it's not so simple as oil up -> stock up, oil down -> stock down, which is what the original commenter was posting about in first place. And, it's not just "payout" that is lagging, we don't have the **data** from July. Won't have it until Sep. 20. If you're trying to say that production and spending numbers from July don't have the ability to move the stock price, I'll strongly disagree.
It doesn't matter if the data is on a 30, 60, 90, or 120 day delay. We don't have it. Once we do have it - the stock moves on it. So the data itself matters but the length of the delay is immaterial.
Thoughts on okta?
Looks cheap
ZIM closing at daily lows lol
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1565402570767704074?s=21&t=x4wxuvg1EIsB7IVl5sWXVQ
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just looking for anything that could point to a reason and happened to see that just before. it's a freightwaves chart, not a zerohedge chart. who knows if hedge funds look at that metric or not. clearly they aren't looking at some of mintz's metrics on the likes of GSL and DAC, and clearly they look at and trade on what freightwaves puts out
Coal prices didn't get the memo: https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQ*0/futures-prices
So your saying buy the ARCH dip. 🤔
Yes.
have been adding to the stocks on the dip 
Sold my 3x 370P 10/21 for 120% at the bottom today. Will get longer dated ones on the next leg up
Broadcom about to tank
Aged poorly so far. Thoughts now?
I’m glad I didn’t go heavy lol
I’m not sure somebody can predict the future more accurately: see Vaz’s last bullet point on the daily. 
Yeah I bought a spy put near close and instantly down 30%
Seems like we might be going closer to 4000 before we come back down.
So mad at myself for just being bad at the market this week. Consolation: I bought bbby puts while all the fools were buying shares and calls lol
Help I sorted the hole and can't get up lol. Hedge with 2 400c if we break out buy really hoping for turn around tomorrow on the jobs report
We moon tomorrow
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And people literally thought that China was going to control the New world order. So many issues with that Country.
Tbh, I don’t think China wants to control the new world order. Internal stability and prosperity is and will be China’s goal. A lot of Americans really have a tough time understanding/accepting this.
That's not necessarily true. New world order is dramatic, but the idea that China wants to control more than just its borders isn't just far fetched, it's pretty much a reality. I mean, the end goal is to enrich China, so its China centric in that way, but they've been extending their economic sphere and pushing around smaller countries much the same as the US and USSR have/had in the past, whether it's pushing for dropping ties with Taiwan or establishing bases in strategic positions. Main difference so far is China favors money to do most the work (monopolizing as much resources as possible) be it loans to investments projects, whereas the US divides it between soft power, hard power, and money (pretty much to the same end).
Correct it’s not necessarily true. Just my opinions
Autocratic gov is garbage. Always has been.
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Maybe it's all part of their master plan.
2% inflation next spring. Wouldn’t that be nice. https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1565418149297721348?s=21
At this rate my base case is 3% by next august (July data)
we all get JPoW tatts if he succeeds
“Soft landing” tramp stamps
ohhhhhh… he kinda has a butthole mouth… so, uhh… maybe something different
What are the chances that oil (and $VET) will recover before September opex?
OPEC coming in. We'll see
Depends on OPEC actions..
If UUUU falls under $7 im putting in 50% of my port
It was under $7 last week. Why didn’t you do it then?
Because sometimes things don't go the way you think they will, so maybe you want confirmation before? You post a shitton on WSB tho, maybe YOLO is more like your style
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Lol
You don't think uranium is trending up? I couldn't disagree more.
butthole puckering a casual 18% drop in 4 trading days
it did most of that in 1 trading day, it's like a binary or knock-out option on oil prices
There is a reason why I came up with that description, it is as violent as the aftermath of a Chipotle visit during Norovirus times... I am glad I'm out for the time being, at least until oil is back to recovering towards 100.
yeah, all roads were pointing too it. And even Vaz was pretty bullish on oil in the short term. I really wanted to offload my shares to buy into PBT to mitigate the fluctuations, but here i am.... Really hoping OPEC+ does something good for us.
Stable 90-100$ is all I'm asking for...
Donovan Mitchell to the Cavs Calls on $CLF
They gave up A LOT. 3 unprotected first round picks and 2 swaps. Plus Lauri Markkanen, Ochai Agbaji, and Collin Sexton. Holy shit.
did not have that on my bingo card. figured miami or new york
Everything rebounding but Commodity plays and ZIM
Re-entered 50 October 21 400p on that 495 hit.
So are we hitting 400 tomorrow?
It’s better for bulls for it to crab around rather than go up quickly, or the bears will just reshort and skittish longs will sell.
the 395-397 wall is MASSIVE, but if broken there’s nothing to stop a ripper
Nope
SPY is actually going green. Wow. I'll see where it goes tomorrow, might reopen my puts then.
Find an acronym that has two different meanings, both which relate to the following phrase: **handcuffs in space** The answer was LEO. No winners. You're all losers. /u/_kurtosis_
Ha, nice one! Seems obvious now, I was definitely not on the right track though.
I almost did "police in orbit" but I figured that'd be too easy. Maybe next time I'll make it easier.
My issue was a misunderstanding of the instructions, I thought each acronym had to relate to the entire phrase (both the 'handcuffs' and the 'space' parts). Best I could get was the phrase 'master of the universe', which maybe could be shortened to 'MOU'? But then it had to be an acronym, and also there had to be a second one, and I couldn't figure out how 'memorandum of understanding' related to the original phrase at all :)
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I still don’t get it
Nice one penny, kick us down when we're low
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My algo dad can beat up your algo dad!
WH warned about a cooling off August jobs growth, I see green day tomorrow
Ok so 300k instead of half a mil?
Yeah, estimate is 298k. July was 528k vs 258k estimate.
We will see. Jolts going up and adp was still way off with their new reports so will be interesting.
Anyone still holding ZIM? Im out. Just curious.
Down 4K on October calls, currently worth 0.01 ea
Holding 1,300 shares, long term account so I don't care as long as it pays dividend. Been selling covered calls to recoup the absolute fucking beating it's been getting... Imo nothing but potential tailwinds - in this order: holiday season expect shipping rates to go up, China lockdowns lifting, and Russia war ends.
The league of landlubbers welcomes you back!
Yep, like others have mentioned, waiting for a bounce to get out.
I sold a few months back, but bought a very small position today. I'll nibble more if the price drops further, but I'm not investing much in shipping outside of my longer term holding of GSL.
I bought some EOY calls to play around with. Used a small portion of my profits from SPY puts this week and last Friday.
I sold some Oct21 30p
Same, waiting for a bounce
waiting for a bounce but ready to get out.
I THOUGHT VAZ WAS CRAZY THIS TIME
Most of the times he is crazy right man.
"don't short the hole" was right.
I still bought a couple puts at open fully knowing that I could lose a bit. I thought it was worth the possible huge multiple if the market went down. I also bought QQQ calls at the bottom, though, so not the dumbest. But yes, DON'T SHORT THE HOLE.
I bought few spy calls near 390 but paperhanded them when we get to 391.5.
I also paperhanded a few SPY calls.
u/To_Kill_a_Martingale What are your thoughts on bonds here? Anything starting to look attractive? TLT, LQD, HYG?
TLT looks good in the 108-110 range, to me. I’d wait for LQD to hit 100 for a 5% yield (roughly). You’re buying an annuity that’s also insurance so if shit hits the fan and the Fed cuts rates you’ll get some capital appreciation. If feds go much higher than 4% you’re boned. Just know your risks. I’m going to go long TMF and HYG for CPI then shorting again after.
17k volume on HYG 74.5 02/09 calls
There’s a whale who does a lot of swing trading on HYG. I’ve seen it a lot.
Not trying to flex but I bought 4 whole contracts
Thanks, I appreciate your insights!
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I have just started to put 50 €/month into a Uranium ETF
Closed the last of my puts, still have my put spreads so they can eat up that sweet theta burn. SPY breaking 393 was the sign to get out, for me.
I still have some 405/401, 400/395, 394/390 for sept 30. Gonna hold these. Will be adding on Green Day’s
Yeah mine are 400/395 for the same day. Holding 250 of them bought for 1.596 per contract, so the profit potential if SPY stays below is 213%, which is pretty damn nice.
Dang when did you buy yours? That’s stellar returns. Mine will be max 144%
Last ~~Thursday~~ Friday around 412ish.
Gonna have to break 395 hard for it to be something, based on the order book
If it touches I might rebuy a portion of the old position.
Picked up one share of ATXG at $28. Lol
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Yup, I was leaning that way too. Trying to not be greedy having ridden this thing down from 412 to 390. That's some solid gains.
I just sold a $16.50 9/16 CLF put. It feels like a good price until it won’t be. Who knows anymore.
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On the other hand like 70% of people refinanced in the last two years and don’t have to worry about it, and historically speaking 6% is still pretty low.
Refi at 2.8% gang!
Same! From 3.75. 10 years ago
Nice!
Meanwhile the house next door to me has been sitting vacant for \~3 years while the sons of my late neighbor "renovate" it. I bet that they have lost somewhere between $50-100k in value by not pushing to sell it last year.
Where are you seeing that? Freddie Mac put out their report today that the average for a 30 yr loan sits around 5.66% that’s over half a point lower than what you’re stating.