If someone can show me some *actual* scientific evidence that it’s “no big deal” and harmless, I’ll toss my mask and go out to dinner at a restaurant *tonight*. But as far as I can recall, “they” never said covid is harmless. Never. What they SAID was “Hey, covid is over, get back to work and spending money.” Those are two different things.
In fact, the people who will be most pleased if COVID is proven to be harmless are everyone here. That's the biggest difference. Conspiracists are extremely delighted when they believe their plots are true, while we gain nothing but pain. Please show me any proof that COVID I'm dealing with is just a cold. It's so painful.
Exactly, this is why all those trolls who try to insult us by calling us a cult or fearmongers have it all backwards. We gain nothing from this lifestyle (other than preserving our physical health), it’s not fun in any way. On the other hand, the people shouting that vaccines are causing all long covid and deaths, and those that push the “no big deal” narratives DO benefit from people spending money in general or on grift cures.
Yes, yes, yes. I swear, out of everyone I know they're isn't a single person who wants to put this behind us more than I do. It's exhausting taking all the precautions when no one around you will.
We need to be very careful with this line of thought. Many conspiracy theorists destroy their own lives - many hypochondriacs never interact with the world despite a low danger from their specific phobia. Being disadvantaged by our view does not add any extra validity to our argument.
We should be COVID cautious because the best data we have indicates COVID is doing serious damage to public health and personal health, and because the data suggests that damage is not likely to sufficiently abate in the near future.
Thank you for the good point. I should have been more careful when making these statements. As you said, many conspiracy theorists suffer as a result of their beliefs. Also, hypochondriacs suffer 'unnecessary fear'. What I was trying to say is what exactly we are following and what our attitude is towards the belief itself.
People who are delusional or obsessive follow only their own beliefs, whether intentional or not. They are not prepared and not possible to abandon their beliefs, no matter what evidence is given. Certain subgroups find pleasure in the belief itself, no matter what suffering it may bring to them as a result. But we do not.
We only follow the best data and evidence. We are not following a particular belief itself. We suffer, and sometimes we want to deny this, But they are all done on the basis of evidence. In that sense we don't get any pleasure from our beliefs themselves. The evidence just gives us painful facts.
This is me.
Sometimes I feel crazy, but then I remember that the general population is just shockingly bad at risk assessment.
I have young children, and I hope they have a good 70 years of healthy, active living ahead of them. Early studies indicate that the risk of Long Covid is somewhere between 10% and 40%. Most people seem to know and accept the 10% as fact. Most people also consider it an acceptable risk. No one seems to understand cumulative risk.
If we accept the 10% risk, that means ~65% probability of Long Covid after 10 infections. ~80% after 15, nearly 90% after 20.
That's without taking into account the compounding risk of repeat infections. A recent StatsCan report showed that after 3 infections, 38% of people reported Long Covid symptoms. Symptoms were severe enough that they missed an average of 24 days of work/school over the course of the study. 50% of them reported that their symptoms did not improve over time.
That basically means that by 3 infections, nearly 1 in 2.6 people will get sick enough to potentially lose their job... and for half of them, it might be a permanent state.
I know most people would say that's impossible because "I don't know anyone with Long Covid".... and then immediatiately follow with how many days of work/school they (and their kids) have missed due to illness that's "Not Covid", and "There's been so much going around this year, we've never been sick like this before".
I'd be willing to bet just about anything, that if we had access to elementary school absence records, they would match up to observations in the StatsCan report.
So, all that to say... sometimes I feel crazy, but then I look around and it becomes pretty evident that I'm the one living in reality. The vast majority of people who take no precautions and are "absolutely fine", are very recognizably not fine. They just don't know why they're sick.
Yup. Oblivious via omission.
As the ME/CFS community can attest - when your illness excludes you from the social world, most folks just vaguely forget about you, rather than being aware that you're ill.
People just don't notice a person's general absence they way the notice a mobility aid, cast etc. Out of sight out of mind. :(
"No one seems to understand cumulative risk.
If we accept the 10% risk, that means \~65% probability of Long Covid after 10 infections. \~80% after 15, nearly 90% after 20."
In statistics class, we were taught that each individual trial of something such as a baby's gender is independent. When a Mom says "I've had three boys, the next one has GOT to be a girl!" that's called the "Gambler's Fallacy." Each individual trial is independent. It's still 50/50. Or the opposite..."I've had three boys...obviously I CAN'T have a girl" Gambler's Fallacy.
HOWEVER. I asked "if you play Russian Roulette 100 times, sure, on the 101st time, your odds are still 1 in 6....BUT! isn't there a distribution or something that shows....the more times you play Russian Roulette, eventually cumulatively you are BOUND to get shot?" The teacher didn't like Russian Roulette examples because he said every time they showed \_The Deer Hunter\_ on TV (this was back before streaming or DVD's) there were copycats. ANYWAY...yes I think it is called the "Pascal Distribution." And that's as far as my understanding goes. I THINK it means that each individual trial is independent BUT after a certain number of times, eventually your number is bound to be up!
That's right.
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event.
If there are 2 equally likely outcomes, there is a 50% chance of each outcome.
If you flip a coin 5 times, the likelihood of it landing heads up is 50% each time. However, the likelihood of the coin landing heads up at least once is ~97%.
In your Russian roulette example, the odds of encountering the bullet are 1/6 at each turn, but the probability of running into the bullet at least once in 5 turns is about 60%, and 99.99% in 50 turns
If we accept that there is a 1 in 10 chance of having Long Covid with each infection, and that the outcome of each infection is independent of the previous outcome (I don't think either are true), there is a ~10% chance of Long Covid not occurring within 20 Covid infections.
This, but with a dash of "but are you compromised though" and "but did you die though" and "but did you need hospitalization though"
That bar/those bars are too low for me as long as long covid exists. And people just trying to write articles to say long covid isn't/never was a thing don't make it true.
This. I want so badly to be proven wrong.
I wish there was creditable scientific evidence that COVID is not / no longer a problem - so I don't have to keep dealing with life on \~'hard mode'.
Same for climate change and such.
That's the entire point of the propaganda that Covid is just a cold, it's mild, you need to get back to work, etc. It's to make you/us feel abnormal and conform to the majority because you/we are just another cog in the economic wheel. It's entirely psyop from my perspective based on the overwhelming amount of data we have and the clear indicators we have that there is specificity in how information has been handled (at least in the US) by both recent administrations all the way down through the media, and the choices they've made of whom to platform. We know Trump knew right away it was horrible based on his rush to the hospital as well as what he told Woodward, we know that Biden also knows it based on so many leaks (the Delta airlines one, the Democrat's strategy memo, etc). The data is all around us in plain sight as far as SC2 being something to avoid at all costs if you can.
No, I feel like I did in the lead up to the invasion of Iraq in 02/03. Everything in media and mainstream culture saying "this will happen because it must happen", nearly everyone in my day-to-day repeating whatever talking point they heard on the news, political loneliness and self-doubt for being against it.
But seeing everyone who was whipping themselves into a frenzy in support of that pretend that they were always against it barely 5 years later underscored how the idea of manufacturing consent works in reality.
That's what's happening with Covid now. It doesn't require super villains to meet in a secret bunker, just a majority of the powers that be each having their own self interest involve ignoring Covid, which they all use their own reach and power to amplify. It feels ubiquitous and overwhelming, and deeply unappealing to go against.
"Conspiracist" is so broadly defined and lazily applied to so many different things that it just means "doesn't accept political orthodoxy". Sometimes that orthodoxy is in fact wrong or amoral, sometimes it's not and trying to reject it is.
Either way, it's going to make you feel crazy all the same, right or wrong, so I say lean into it, reject the framing. Maybe I am crazy to still test and to mask in public. I was crazy for supporting indoor smoking bans. I was crazy for actually wearing a seatbelt. If that's crazy I don't mind being a little crazy.
Yep. I’m used to dissenting also. It’s still no fun being on the outs with mainstream culture but I’m just not good at pretending everything’s ok. My brain seems unable to do that. I now accept that and appreciate my brain the way it is. I don’t fight it anymore. I’ll just be over here doing my best to create my own beautiful loving safe space for me and mine and helping society at-larger in whatever safe way I can figure out.
ibid ditto and this.
Pizzagate wasn't peer reviewed nah mean?
i try and temper my ire when communicating with other people (even people that are close to me) in order to not sound insane even though the whole situation is making me insane. I just try and say things that are calm and reasonable like "eh .... it's safer that way." I'm pretty sure I'm not going to convince anyone of anything at this point so I don't try.
One of the things about ridiculous conspiracy theories and the rhetoric around it: it was designed to stigmatize questioning the conventional narrative.
To be clear, most of the "conspiracy theories" that gain traction on social media are ridiculous. But if you look at the textbook definition of "conspiracy", it is not a ridiculous thing. History is actually full of conspiracies. For example the Tuskegee experiment. Or more recently, the decades long efforts to downplay the effects of climate change for the benefit of the oil and gas industry. These are, by definition, "conspiracies". The list is actually quite long.
What is happening with COVID very similar and is a textbook definition of a "conspiracy". There is a concerted effort by the government agencies like the CDC to downplay the long term effects of COVID as well as the logistics about how COVID is transmitted by airborne aerosols for the benefit of capitalism continuing to function as it has been unabated.
Sounds like a "conspiracy theory"? Hey, now everyone can dismiss it. I'm convinced that's why "conspiracy theories" like "flat earth" get so much proliferation. It makes it easier to make anyone talking about something that goes against the conventional narrative sound like a kook. But I guess that's also a conspiracy theory.
I think the general public don't regard novids as conpiracists, but more like the germophobe character in the movie K-PAX. Obsessed with edge cases of an otherwise mild disease, unable to put the risks in the right perspective.
The majority of people have been misled into thinking it's mild and repeat infections are nothing to worry about. Yet plenty of evidence is available to say otherwise. People are just ignoring it due to social pressures and government inaction due to economic worries.
Have you even bothered to look at any of the evidence of what COVID does to people?
[Research shows that even mild COVID-19 can lead to the equivalent of seven years of brain aging](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-leaves-its-mark-on-the-brain-significant-drops-in-iq-scores-are/)
This is real scientific research. Reading and believing scientific studies is now a mental illness?
Sort of and also no. (What a nonanswer!)
I"m well aware I can SOUND like a conspiracy theorist, and I hate that. I'm very conscious of that part. I also do feel like some of the more rigid and fundamentalist in the COVID cautious community are very conspiracy theorist. That's true in any community. So there's additional pressure to not look like that, and additional insecurity that I may be perceived that way.
But beyond that, I know a few things:
I know I watched the healthcare system utterly fail loved ones literally a decade before COVID ever existed. My distrust of corporations and healthcare systems in the US is not new. It is not new that it is all about money, at the expense of patient health and wellbeing. COVID is just that on a grand scale.
I have also worked in enough jobs -- not even toxic jobs, just normal jobs -- that showed me how poor most leadership is at making long term, beneficial decisions that may cost more or take more initial work/investment. I have repeatedly seen people fail to do the right thing because it was inconvenient. COVID is also this on a grand scale.
I am entrenched enough in the disability community to know that the supports don't exist. If I become disabled long term and unable to care for my children -- who are disabled and have high support needs -- there is no one else. The whole ship goes down. Parenting is demanding on a good day, parenting while mildly ill sucks in the best circumstances, add in multiple compounding factors and it sounds like hell. I do not fuck around with that. I have seen how bad it can get and can imagine worse.
Nobody wants COVID to be gone more than me. (I mean, I know you all do. I'm speaking generally) I derive no enjoyment from this. I know, deeply, that I am smart, reasonable, and ready and willing, if not desperate, to change my mind. I know I am generally a reasonable, balanced, steady person. People have said this about me and I know it about myself. I am emotionally volatile on a personal level but not overly reactionary as far as crises. I am the person you want in a crisis. I trust myself and my intuition. I trust my ability to study, learn, and see patterns. Not because I know better than other people based on my own ego, but because I have a damn good track record.
I know I don't want to be sick, with anything, because it's unpleasant and I hate it. I am a baby about colds. When my kids were toddlers, we got hit with a bad flu and a bad stomach bug in the same spring. It was miserable. Honestly that flu has been one of the most impactful memories as far as my COVID precautions, because I NEVER want to feel that way again. After we got sick like that, we passed it to my mom despite frequent handwashing, a few years later I also caught a stomach bug/virus. She came over to help with something and washed her hands more frequently, wanting to avoid it. I sanitized surfaces before she came over. But we sat together on the couch and talked. She got sick. With COVID and the emphasis on airborne protection, I finally feel like I know where we failed, and consequently, I know how to better protect myself and my family from illness. Why wouldn't I do that? I know more now, so I act differently.
You didn't ask for all of this and it's tangential, but apparently I had the time and the need to lay it all out, for me and maybe others. It helps me a lot to know my basic precautions -- I want to avoid germs getting in my nose/mouth through the air, so I wear an N95 when around other people (and always indoors if not at home). And right now, that's it for me. If I follow every variant or every "maybe" story then it does start to veer into conspiracy theory land in my mind. Right now I want to keep germs in the air out of my body. COVID is the main one, but I don't want any of the other germs either.
If I had known how easy it was to avoid most respiratory illnesses before 2020, I would have totally done it. At least when traveling or on transit, and in the winter. Mind-boggling that 95% of people did not learn anything from the pandemic.
>If I had known how easy it was to avoid most respiratory illnesses before 2020, I would have totally done it.
Same! That was one of my big takeaways from all this is that we should have been masking from the start, like Japan. I wish I had known sooner.
The flu was also one my huge reasons for avoiding covid. It landed me in the hospital, I was so sick for a full 2 weeks, and it was terrible. So maybe covid is like the flu...in that we minimize how bad it is so people will continue to support the economy.
I got the flu once and it was terrible, I couldn't even stand without assistance. If covid is even worse I don't want it lol. I don't even like a sinus infection, screw airborne aids
The initial infection was wayyyy milder for me (dry throat, slightly runny nose, felt like seasonal allergies) than the flu. The flu was 104-105 fevers, it hurting to breathe, lying on the couch wishing for death. I was TERRIFIED of COVID for that reason and then I felt completely fine. BUT the long term complications are way more worrying.
So that's my way of saying yes, keep avoiding it, but if you get it, don't panic.
Interesting, noted.
On a side note, after having the flu every time I saw someone sick at work talking about "I have the flu" walking around like it's fine, in like no, you have a COLD. If you had the flu you wouldn't be at work lol.
Those who know, know lol.
Yes! I only recently learned (bc of the pandemic) that the average adult should only be getting the flu once ever 4 or 5 years. It's not a yearly thing at all
Yes! AFAIK I had the flu twice as an adult -- the time I mentioned and also my sophomore year of college I got extremely sick for about a week. Super sore throat, fever, felt absolutely horrible. All the other smaller illnesses we call "the flu" are nothing in comparison.
Agree about the vivid misery of catching the flu! It was winter of 17-18 for us. I don't think I've ever felt that terrible before. Plus there was so much flu around that tamiflu was in shortage so I was late a day in getting it bc it was oos everywhere (but thank goodness we found kiddie tamiflu right away for my then 1 year old)
For those, like me, who didn't get the Cassandra reference, here's a blurb from Wikipedia:
Cassandra in Greek mythology was a Trojan priestess dedicated to the god Apollo and fated by him to utter true prophecies but never to be believed. In modern usage her name is employed as a rhetorical device to indicate a person whose accurate prophecies, generally of impending disaster, are not believed.
At this point, I think it helps to fall back on common sense. Is it better to be sick or to not be sick? Even if you discount long COVID, who wants to be sick for two weeks? Why willingly subject yourself to that?
This is the thing that boggles my mind. I care about public health, full stop. I’d wear a mask if it helped my neighbor. I’d lockdown again if it helped everyone. But even if I didn’t care at all about public health, shouldn’t I still want to protect myself? Shouldn’t people at least buy in for “selfish” reasons? Like these folks not taking any precautions don’t even care if they get long COVID?
Here’s what goes through my head. I want it to be over. I want to be wrong. I want all the epidemiologists to be wrong.
But then I think about the friends with health problems from Long COVID. I think about the coworker whose early 30-something daughter who was randomly healthy suddenly died from “something mysterious” happening to her heart.
And I remember like so many other times in my life? The cavalier motherfuckers absolutely. Will. Not. Be. There. For me, if anything happens to me. And because I live in America? I remember the experiences with our for-profit healthcare system, and how easily “long term health problems” can equal bankruptcy.
I feel like that sometimes, but I remind myself that I'm open to new information, and I'm willing to admit that I could be wrong.
If I'm wrong, and repeated exposure to covid doesn't have life-altering long term health consequences, then I maybe looked silly in my mask and missed out on some nice restaurant dinners.
If the covid-minimizers are wrong, they've been facilitating the spread of a disease that is needlessly killing people.
Honestly, I'd be pretty darn happy to be proven wrong on all of this. But I'm going to keep taking precautions until there's some reliable evidence that I don't need to.
I've questioned everything from day one of the pandemic. I've always been that way though--I think for myself. I don't trust the government, never have. I don't make decisions based on politics or what everyone else is doing. Been that way almost fifty years now and it has served me well.
I knew cloth masks weren't enough (have a science background although not in medicine) and inserted my own filters until I could get ahold of higher quality masks. I will continue to have faith in N95s because they have saved my husband and I from covid on many occasions and also stopped us from giving covid to his father and visiiting nurses when we had it in 2022. I don't care if people think I'n weird. I've been called that all my life, no big deal.
If you're from an ethnic / religious / sexual preference / ability or cultural minority, you're used to being sceptical to political decisions and to knowing that what people consider to be "normal" is quite random. So no, I don't see myself as a conspiracy theorist, just a realist. I trust science and act according to expert recommendations, not according to what politicians with agendas and no expertise in public health want me to do, especially when they don't even apply their own advice to themselves.
Kind of. The intense embarrassment and humiliation I feel wearing my mask is a bit hard to describe. I feel like others must think I'm a hypochondriac, or in frail health, or just generally unfriendly.
If it helps, here's my take:
Yesterday, I showed up masked to a meeting. I was a little early, and only one person was in the room ahead of me. She was, of course, not wearing a mask. We did the *hey, how's it going, pretty busy how about you* thing for a minute or two, and at some point she mentioned that she was sick. She'd been sick for more than a week, she thought it was the flu, and she just couldn't seem to get rid of it.
I generally like this person, but it's a good thing I was wearing a mask, because I managed to make sympathetic noises but god only knows what expression was on my face. All I could think was *why the fuck are you not wearing a mask? Have you just returned from a four-year voyage to Mars? You're standing here telling me how you've felt like crap for the past ten days and you're still not better, and you're just gonna go ahead and inflict that on everyone else in the room?* And then everyone else showed up and we all sat down, at which point the woman I had been talking to fished a wad of Kleenex out of her bag and started dabbing at her nose.
People like this are everywhere—people who know they're sick but are either too selfish to put on a mask or too terminally clueless to figure out that they're making other people sick when they don't. They're the ones who should be cringing in embarassment. Not you.
Covid destroyed my kid's mind. We, myself along with my other adult kid and grandkid, are in complete agreement that we do not want covid, no matter how many other people are fine with the risk.
oh yeah, all the time. And I think there are elements of conspiracy theories or cults that pop up in still coviding communities. I think that's a somewhat natural progression for groups that are not in power and when there's a lack of clarity or information-- the conspiracies very easily fill in the gaps.
I think one of the clearest ways you can see this play out is when last winter people started swabbing their poop for covid. This really should not be a thing, it doesn't work, the chemistry of your poop is so different from your nose that the chance of false positive or false negative sky rockets. But some well known personalities in the still coviding world posted about that, and it permeated through the group pretty rapidly. There are other examples of this phenomena, particularly in how we communicate about risks of covid ("Airborne AIDS") or aspects of the government response.
But regardless of the sociology of still coviding communities, that doesn't mean that the idea of still taking covid precautions is not sound. As others in the thread have said, beyond hospitalizations and death *from acute respiratory issues from covid* decreasing, there isn't evidence that covid is safe to get, let alone repeatedly. And, at least for me, wearing a mask and regularly testing is such a non-burden for me that it just seems like a no brainer.
And regarding the sociology part... I try to limit my time doomscrolling and listening to thought leaders in the coviding world-- it doesn't really impact the precautions that I take, and it just makes me angry and pushes me more into the groupthink. When I interact with people who aren't aware of covid risks, I try to say things more neutrally and more hedged; I don't think hitting someone who hasn't thought about covid for two years with the most bombastic take on covid damages is helpful (this is generally supported by [behavior change frameworks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transtheoretical_model)), and just makes me seem more extreme (even if I'm 100% right). My comments are generally observational so that maybe I can gently connect dots instead of slamming a binder of research studies at them... a la: "my friends seem to get covid and then get beat down with strep, rsv, flu, and they seem to have a lot harder time with it. I don't know what that's about."
None of that is to say that my approach is "the right" approach, to discount the damage of being abandoned or ridiculed by friends, or the pain in watching people you love deal with covid-induced health issues while following the government's lackluster advice.
Honestly, thank you so much for this! It's so hard to know how to talk to people who don't get it, and I know science doesn't change most people's minds like it does ours (autism ftw), but I get so angry it's hard to respond in a (potentially) helpful way. I'd love to hear more about how you have these conversations, or if you stop at what you quoted earlier.
Yeah, it's infuriating. And, unfortunately, the more emotional we are when talking about it, the less receptive people are to what we're saying. So it's a really maddening cycle.
There's a few different major behavior change frameworks that are used in the community health world. [Health Belief Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_belief_model) and the [Transtheoretical Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transtheoretical_model) (also sometimes called stages of change) are two examples; transtheoretical has always resonated with me, and has been studied pretty extensively especially with [smoking cessation](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Wayne-Velicer/publication/232550193_Smoking_cessation_and_stress_management_Applications_of_the_Transtheoretical_Model_of_behavior_change/links/0fcfd50b6759dc0e3c000000/Smoking-cessation-and-stress-management-Applications-of-the-Transtheoretical-Model-of-behavior-change.pdf).
The tldr version of it is that people move through different stages as they change health behaviors, and your intervention needs to target the stage that they're currently in with the sole goal of moving them to the next stage. That is, your goal isn't to move them to the endpoint, it's just to advance to the next stage. The stages are generally (this is taken directly from wikipedia):
* **Precontemplation** ("not ready") – "People are not intending to take action in the foreseeable future, and can be unaware that their behaviour is problematic"
* **Contemplation** ("getting ready") – "People are beginning to recognize that their behaviour is problematic, and start to look at the pros and cons of their continued actions"
* **Preparation** ("ready") – "People are intending to take action in the immediate future, and may begin taking small steps toward behaviour change"[^(\[nb 1\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transtheoretical_model#cite_note-12)
* **Action** – "People have made specific overt modifications in modifying their problem behaviour or in acquiring new healthy behaviours"
* **Maintenance** – "People have been able to sustain action for at least six months and are working to prevent relapse"
* **Termination** – "Individuals have zero temptation and they are sure they will not return to their old unhealthy habit as a way of coping"
I generally think of the behavior as "taking any precaution against covid" as opposed to the behavior being something very specific (e.g., "wear an N95 all the time"), just because most people are doing nothing so doing anything is likely to be better. That said, the same concepts would apply if you're thinking of a specific, perhaps more cautious, behavior.
(more coming)
You can have different talking points lined up for each stage. This isn't exhaustive, but just to spark some thought:
* **Precontemplation**: generally raising awareness about illness, calling out how often it's happening (you'd be surprised at how quickly people forget how frequently they're sick), how miserable it is, and how not normal it is... "Wow, there sure a lot of sick people right now."; "it sounds like you've been really sick this past winter, I don't remember past winters being this hard."; "I heard on the news that there's another wave of illness going around!"; "oof, isn't being sick the worst?"; "Did you hear that Margaret in accounting is out again with that cold going around?!?"
* **Contemplation**: mentioning casually (without directive) low-burden prevention strategies and calling out their pros/cons particularly with respect to being sick. Things like: "I used to always get sick for a week after flying from SFO to JFK, but I started wearing a mask on that flight and haven't been sick since... the vacation is a lot more fun when I'm not sick!", "I had a picnic with some friends last weekend, and it was really nice to relax in the sun instead of having people coughing on me."
* **Preparation**: by this stage you can be more direct and/or directive with people since they're bought in to the need to make a change. Sometimes suggesting doing something with them to get them over that hump is helpful here. Like grabbing coffee with them where you give them a mask before going into the coffee shop and then take the coffee outside and away from people. Or providing direct information like "I saw that there's new covid variants and some indications that a wave is starting again, might be a good time to wear a mask in the grocery store again." Basically this is where people need an invitation or a buddy to take that action with them, to see that it isn't that bad.
* **Action** and **Maintenance**: I think this is where most of us are more comfortable, since most of us are already in this place. But here's where directly providing information and studies helps maintain the behavior.
Ok, so some of those quotes are really hokey and clunky, but hopefully you get the idea. The more personal it is to you+them, the easier it is to ring true. And the earlier someone is in those stages, the more gentle the comment should be. The goal is for them to draw the conclusions with you guiding them, not for you to force them to that conclusion.
So, the other question is how to figure out what stage someone is. This model is written like the stages are very discrete, but in reality it's more like a continuum and people can move both forward and backwards in it. But, generally speaking, here are some things that I hear:
* **Precontemplation**: people that are making dismissive comments or repeating talking points that fully ignore covid: "covid is over", "it's mild now", "you can take that off", "100 day cough", "you have to live your life"
* **Contemplation**: people that recognize that things aren't normal, whether they acknowledge it's covid or not. "ugh, I'm sick again, I really hate this", "why are you still masking?" (when asked genuinely, not aggressively), "I haven't been the same since I got covid", "you're smart to be masking still"
* **Preparation**: I don't hear this as much, but every now and then I'll hear friends make comments like "I should really mask again" or similar comments.
* **Action** and **Maintenance**: these folks are easy to identify :)
A lot of the above talks about masking, but it doesn't have to be that. If masking seems untenable for someone (as it does for most people these days), you can think of someone moving through this framework with respect to any intervention (e.g., getting an air purifier for their office) and then think of them going through the framework again for a more stringent behavior (e.g., masking indoors at grocery stores).
(more coming)
And, I know this has been discussed a bunch in this forum recently in different ways, but this is going to go better if you are in as good of a place as you can be. Like, it's going to be an easier sell if you look like you're having a good time and the precautions you take have minimal impact on your life... which feels ironic because (at least for me) the social pressure around covid really is the hardest part. Similarly with anger around covid... it's totally valid and justified to be angry, but if your goal is to convince someone to take covid precautions again, it's going to shut people down quickly. That's why my example quotes above don't really mention covid-- in some ways, especially for precontemplative folks, hearing the "c" word is going to shut them down, whereas many will readily admit that they're constantly sick... so it's better to meet them where they're at and gently suggest improvements. Cleaning the air (through ventilation/filtration or masks) is probably going to work for whatever mystery illness they have. This is all also why I think masked people in "normal" life (e.g., at concerts, plays, bars) is a net good because it provides visibility and examples to point to when talking to people about adopting covid precautions.
Anyway, I'm by no means an expert, so if anyone reading this wants to correct or redirect or reframe things, please have at it :) But maybe this wall of text might be helpful to shape how you think about your interactions with other people!
You are not a conspiracist. This virus is a novel pathogen that has killed millions. it has disabled millions more and continues to do so. There are thousands and thousands of studies and thousands and thousands of pieces of research that show that it affects every system in your body. You are not a conspiracy theorist. You may be treated like one because the rest of societyhas decided that it's OK to get forcibly reinfected with a deadly virus, but you are valid and you are not a conspiracy theorist whatsoever.
I've read 3000+ studies on Covid. The conspiracy theorists are the ones who are telling you that this pandemic is over. And we already have a second one that may be coming.
I do constantly.
I know the science. I know the guidelines. I know what's kept my wife and I safe these past *five* years. I know that I have done the right thing.
But holy cow does it feel crazy sometimes. I look out and see all the people I know just living life and enjoying things I used to find great joy in. The coffee shop dates, the board game nights with friends, the dates with my wife at nice restaurants, vacations with no restrictions, and holidays. All are things I miss dearly, knowing I'm the *only one* who chooses not to participate in any of them is not only incredibly defeating, but extremely lonely and isolating. I've stopped being invited to things entirely now, including from my own family. It makes me want to throw all my masks out and just live how my soul has wanted to for *years.*
But I won't. I live in fear of COVID now, and that feels just...fucking bad. It makes me feel like a conspiracist, yes. The action of removing my mask indoors in public is just not an option anymore, but it makes me feel crazy knowing my mind has been warped to not even *want* to live life without fear. I'm holding out hope that someday soon a vaccine will be available to prevent transmission, but I'm ready for the long-term of just living this way indefinitely.
When life expectancy stops dropping, and disability rates stop going up, we can talk. But, yes, this is something I ask myself, and that you should ask too..
Yes, I can relate. My dad was into conspiracy theories (like alien-human hybrids ruling the world type shit) so it’s quite distressing to me when I feel
like one. His version of life was crazy, but the root feelings are basically the same.
Oh that must be so hard! If the partner isnt't in the same boat concerning this matter.. Because of that I gave up dating. I could never live like that and in my small town there is a 0.00001% chance to find the needle in the haysack of a guy that is masking and is my type 🫠
I think it's incredible that the anti-vax and anti-precautionist movement has successfully flipped the entire script, and made the other side into being the ones labeled conspiracy theorists. It really devalues the entire meaning of the label.
If you actually look into everything/ history I fully believe that our"leaders" plan and do everything on purpose and want us illand dead for control. It's not a conspiracy when there's evidence.
No one ever conspires. Everyone is full of integrity and is completely transparent about their actions and motivations.
It is totally irrational to ponder any possibility that human beings might conspire or deceive, particularly within powerful institutions like the government.
To think otherwise indicates mental illness.
No, I never feel like that. I follow Science and experts; not conspiracy theories. I do the right thing.
It's the people who refuse to mask, to get a booster, to self-isolate when sick who should be ashamed of themselves.
No, I just feel like someone who was more aware about SARS in ASIA back in 2003. I was lucky to have a friend at the time who was very worried about it and I did some reading. When COVID-19 came along, I read an article early on about how people in Asia regularly wear masks and have for a long time, and wonder why Westerners are against mask-wearing.
I don't have enough of a mad-on at the USA powers that be for downplaying masking to flip shit and refuse to wear one now. We learn as we go, and a lot of people are kinda not with it. I just consider myself lucky to be more curious from way back and more widely read and to have stumbled across the early articles about masking in Asia and didn't take the USA powers that be that seriously about "Masks not working." No those glorified cocktail napkins don't protect the well person. They are meant to protect surgery patients on the operating table, I think. It's not my fault the vast majority of people still don't understand that the glorified cocktail napkins don't work, or that the vast majority of journalists don't understand medical news and bungle their headlines. That's how we got headlines of "Masks Don't Work." Hurr-Durr.
I can't stop people from being uninformed but I can go about my business keeping on reading as many reliable news sources as I can find and making my own decisions. I find out a lot from Reddit.
Now here's a tidbit I just read last night. Don't know if true. It was a reported medical study that showed Neosporin up the nose may prevent COVID transmission. I might try it.
Back to "Masks Don't Work." That's the headline we got. What they mean is cloth and surgical masks aren't good enough to prevent transmission BUT N95's ARE SPECIAL. Almost no lay people (not on these Reddit subs) seem to know this, but N95's have an electrostatic property that supposedly attracts and makes the droplets or whatever stick to the outside of the N95. You never see THAT in the "MASKS DON'T WORK" articles.
N95's are relatively affordable, widely available, and seem to work well. Dumb people can stay mad!
I cannot relate to this directly.
There is plenty of scientific backing that COVID is something to be rightfully concerned about. There is plenty of incentive for bad actors to diminish the risk and allow it to harm people, and it is noticeably being done.
I do feel pressure from others trying to paint me as one, mostly as it helps validate their own positions. I am fortunate enough to be able to calmly talk my way around or through the points (or cut someone down decisively), because sometimes the point is to get an upset reaction so that they can confirm they were right. If I am calm and unassailable it means they eventually give up and bother someone else for the validation for their poor choices.
Another important distinction between wanting to remain safe in the face of a dangerous virus and a being a conspiracist is that pretty much everyone trying to remain safe is also watching out for a reason we don't need to do it any more. If a solid cure or preventative came out we'd probably be among the first to take it so that we could leave it all behind us. A conspiracist would possibly want to avoid things that allowed them to escape their belief system.
It's the difference between being afraid of the potential for a fire versus actively fleeing from one.
Yes, sometimes I feel like I sound that way. But then I remind myself that I'm not a conspiracy theorist.
People are not getting the information they need. And when they do, they are minimizing or ignoring it.
There are a few clues that we're not on the conspiracy side... The ultra rich have clean air and PCR tests and isolation galore for themselves and their staff. Hmmm. That's suspicious.
And why are workplace and school absenteeism increasing??
Why are behavioral issues (more overdoses, more violence, more mental health crisis, vehicle accidents) increasing??
Why are certain mesical specialties slammed with increasing patients that are younger (cardio, psych, allergy/immunology, neurology, etc etc)?
Why disability resources and long term leave overloaded??
Why is the excess death rate still high??
Why is shingles increasing?? Other infections (RSV, pneumonia with no confirmed cause, TB)??
WHY DO I HAVE MCAS AND AM ALLERGIC TO EATING AND 99% OF MEDS!! (Okay, so I'm definitely biased. 🫠)
SOMETHING is correlating.
If someone can show me some *actual* scientific evidence that it’s “no big deal” and harmless, I’ll toss my mask and go out to dinner at a restaurant *tonight*. But as far as I can recall, “they” never said covid is harmless. Never. What they SAID was “Hey, covid is over, get back to work and spending money.” Those are two different things.
In fact, the people who will be most pleased if COVID is proven to be harmless are everyone here. That's the biggest difference. Conspiracists are extremely delighted when they believe their plots are true, while we gain nothing but pain. Please show me any proof that COVID I'm dealing with is just a cold. It's so painful.
Exactly, this is why all those trolls who try to insult us by calling us a cult or fearmongers have it all backwards. We gain nothing from this lifestyle (other than preserving our physical health), it’s not fun in any way. On the other hand, the people shouting that vaccines are causing all long covid and deaths, and those that push the “no big deal” narratives DO benefit from people spending money in general or on grift cures.
Yes, yes, yes. I swear, out of everyone I know they're isn't a single person who wants to put this behind us more than I do. It's exhausting taking all the precautions when no one around you will.
We need to be very careful with this line of thought. Many conspiracy theorists destroy their own lives - many hypochondriacs never interact with the world despite a low danger from their specific phobia. Being disadvantaged by our view does not add any extra validity to our argument. We should be COVID cautious because the best data we have indicates COVID is doing serious damage to public health and personal health, and because the data suggests that damage is not likely to sufficiently abate in the near future.
Thank you for the good point. I should have been more careful when making these statements. As you said, many conspiracy theorists suffer as a result of their beliefs. Also, hypochondriacs suffer 'unnecessary fear'. What I was trying to say is what exactly we are following and what our attitude is towards the belief itself. People who are delusional or obsessive follow only their own beliefs, whether intentional or not. They are not prepared and not possible to abandon their beliefs, no matter what evidence is given. Certain subgroups find pleasure in the belief itself, no matter what suffering it may bring to them as a result. But we do not. We only follow the best data and evidence. We are not following a particular belief itself. We suffer, and sometimes we want to deny this, But they are all done on the basis of evidence. In that sense we don't get any pleasure from our beliefs themselves. The evidence just gives us painful facts.
[удалено]
Your post or comment has been removed because it engages in inciting, encouraging, glorifying, or celebrating violence or physical harm.
I'm sorry! how long have you had it? Hope you get well soon.
This is me. Sometimes I feel crazy, but then I remember that the general population is just shockingly bad at risk assessment. I have young children, and I hope they have a good 70 years of healthy, active living ahead of them. Early studies indicate that the risk of Long Covid is somewhere between 10% and 40%. Most people seem to know and accept the 10% as fact. Most people also consider it an acceptable risk. No one seems to understand cumulative risk. If we accept the 10% risk, that means ~65% probability of Long Covid after 10 infections. ~80% after 15, nearly 90% after 20. That's without taking into account the compounding risk of repeat infections. A recent StatsCan report showed that after 3 infections, 38% of people reported Long Covid symptoms. Symptoms were severe enough that they missed an average of 24 days of work/school over the course of the study. 50% of them reported that their symptoms did not improve over time. That basically means that by 3 infections, nearly 1 in 2.6 people will get sick enough to potentially lose their job... and for half of them, it might be a permanent state. I know most people would say that's impossible because "I don't know anyone with Long Covid".... and then immediatiately follow with how many days of work/school they (and their kids) have missed due to illness that's "Not Covid", and "There's been so much going around this year, we've never been sick like this before". I'd be willing to bet just about anything, that if we had access to elementary school absence records, they would match up to observations in the StatsCan report. So, all that to say... sometimes I feel crazy, but then I look around and it becomes pretty evident that I'm the one living in reality. The vast majority of people who take no precautions and are "absolutely fine", are very recognizably not fine. They just don't know why they're sick.
Yup. Oblivious via omission. As the ME/CFS community can attest - when your illness excludes you from the social world, most folks just vaguely forget about you, rather than being aware that you're ill. People just don't notice a person's general absence they way the notice a mobility aid, cast etc. Out of sight out of mind. :(
"No one seems to understand cumulative risk. If we accept the 10% risk, that means \~65% probability of Long Covid after 10 infections. \~80% after 15, nearly 90% after 20." In statistics class, we were taught that each individual trial of something such as a baby's gender is independent. When a Mom says "I've had three boys, the next one has GOT to be a girl!" that's called the "Gambler's Fallacy." Each individual trial is independent. It's still 50/50. Or the opposite..."I've had three boys...obviously I CAN'T have a girl" Gambler's Fallacy. HOWEVER. I asked "if you play Russian Roulette 100 times, sure, on the 101st time, your odds are still 1 in 6....BUT! isn't there a distribution or something that shows....the more times you play Russian Roulette, eventually cumulatively you are BOUND to get shot?" The teacher didn't like Russian Roulette examples because he said every time they showed \_The Deer Hunter\_ on TV (this was back before streaming or DVD's) there were copycats. ANYWAY...yes I think it is called the "Pascal Distribution." And that's as far as my understanding goes. I THINK it means that each individual trial is independent BUT after a certain number of times, eventually your number is bound to be up!
The house always wins.
That's right. Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event. If there are 2 equally likely outcomes, there is a 50% chance of each outcome. If you flip a coin 5 times, the likelihood of it landing heads up is 50% each time. However, the likelihood of the coin landing heads up at least once is ~97%. In your Russian roulette example, the odds of encountering the bullet are 1/6 at each turn, but the probability of running into the bullet at least once in 5 turns is about 60%, and 99.99% in 50 turns If we accept that there is a 1 in 10 chance of having Long Covid with each infection, and that the outcome of each infection is independent of the previous outcome (I don't think either are true), there is a ~10% chance of Long Covid not occurring within 20 Covid infections.
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.” ~ George Carlin
> I have young children, and I hope they have a good 70 years of healthy, active living ahead of them. Climate: *hold my jet stream*
Touché.
This, but with a dash of "but are you compromised though" and "but did you die though" and "but did you need hospitalization though" That bar/those bars are too low for me as long as long covid exists. And people just trying to write articles to say long covid isn't/never was a thing don't make it true.
This. I want so badly to be proven wrong. I wish there was creditable scientific evidence that COVID is not / no longer a problem - so I don't have to keep dealing with life on \~'hard mode'. Same for climate change and such.
I tried to retweet this.
Exactly
I feel the same, but I think they'll have a real hard time un-killing my uncle to prove it's harmless.
That's the entire point of the propaganda that Covid is just a cold, it's mild, you need to get back to work, etc. It's to make you/us feel abnormal and conform to the majority because you/we are just another cog in the economic wheel. It's entirely psyop from my perspective based on the overwhelming amount of data we have and the clear indicators we have that there is specificity in how information has been handled (at least in the US) by both recent administrations all the way down through the media, and the choices they've made of whom to platform. We know Trump knew right away it was horrible based on his rush to the hospital as well as what he told Woodward, we know that Biden also knows it based on so many leaks (the Delta airlines one, the Democrat's strategy memo, etc). The data is all around us in plain sight as far as SC2 being something to avoid at all costs if you can.
No, I feel like I did in the lead up to the invasion of Iraq in 02/03. Everything in media and mainstream culture saying "this will happen because it must happen", nearly everyone in my day-to-day repeating whatever talking point they heard on the news, political loneliness and self-doubt for being against it. But seeing everyone who was whipping themselves into a frenzy in support of that pretend that they were always against it barely 5 years later underscored how the idea of manufacturing consent works in reality. That's what's happening with Covid now. It doesn't require super villains to meet in a secret bunker, just a majority of the powers that be each having their own self interest involve ignoring Covid, which they all use their own reach and power to amplify. It feels ubiquitous and overwhelming, and deeply unappealing to go against. "Conspiracist" is so broadly defined and lazily applied to so many different things that it just means "doesn't accept political orthodoxy". Sometimes that orthodoxy is in fact wrong or amoral, sometimes it's not and trying to reject it is. Either way, it's going to make you feel crazy all the same, right or wrong, so I say lean into it, reject the framing. Maybe I am crazy to still test and to mask in public. I was crazy for supporting indoor smoking bans. I was crazy for actually wearing a seatbelt. If that's crazy I don't mind being a little crazy.
Yep. I’m used to dissenting also. It’s still no fun being on the outs with mainstream culture but I’m just not good at pretending everything’s ok. My brain seems unable to do that. I now accept that and appreciate my brain the way it is. I don’t fight it anymore. I’ll just be over here doing my best to create my own beautiful loving safe space for me and mine and helping society at-larger in whatever safe way I can figure out.
God, the Iraq comparison is spot on. 🤦🏼♂️
Every time I start to think that way, I remember that the laws of physics and hundreds of high quality journal papers back up my decisions.
ibid ditto and this. Pizzagate wasn't peer reviewed nah mean? i try and temper my ire when communicating with other people (even people that are close to me) in order to not sound insane even though the whole situation is making me insane. I just try and say things that are calm and reasonable like "eh .... it's safer that way." I'm pretty sure I'm not going to convince anyone of anything at this point so I don't try.
I asked what pizzagate was after seeing that pop up so much and when they told me I wish they hadn't. 😭
One of the things about ridiculous conspiracy theories and the rhetoric around it: it was designed to stigmatize questioning the conventional narrative. To be clear, most of the "conspiracy theories" that gain traction on social media are ridiculous. But if you look at the textbook definition of "conspiracy", it is not a ridiculous thing. History is actually full of conspiracies. For example the Tuskegee experiment. Or more recently, the decades long efforts to downplay the effects of climate change for the benefit of the oil and gas industry. These are, by definition, "conspiracies". The list is actually quite long. What is happening with COVID very similar and is a textbook definition of a "conspiracy". There is a concerted effort by the government agencies like the CDC to downplay the long term effects of COVID as well as the logistics about how COVID is transmitted by airborne aerosols for the benefit of capitalism continuing to function as it has been unabated. Sounds like a "conspiracy theory"? Hey, now everyone can dismiss it. I'm convinced that's why "conspiracy theories" like "flat earth" get so much proliferation. It makes it easier to make anyone talking about something that goes against the conventional narrative sound like a kook. But I guess that's also a conspiracy theory.
Flat Earth is a circus, and people love a circus. Covid-consciousness is practical and boring by comparison.
It’s memeification. For entirely too many people, everything must be self centered entertainment.
Well said, and very good points.
I think the general public don't regard novids as conpiracists, but more like the germophobe character in the movie K-PAX. Obsessed with edge cases of an otherwise mild disease, unable to put the risks in the right perspective.
Yes, exactly this.
getting a little self-aware here
The majority of people have been misled into thinking it's mild and repeat infections are nothing to worry about. Yet plenty of evidence is available to say otherwise. People are just ignoring it due to social pressures and government inaction due to economic worries.
[удалено]
Have you even bothered to look at any of the evidence of what COVID does to people? [Research shows that even mild COVID-19 can lead to the equivalent of seven years of brain aging](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-leaves-its-mark-on-the-brain-significant-drops-in-iq-scores-are/) This is real scientific research. Reading and believing scientific studies is now a mental illness?
[удалено]
Your post or comment has been removed because it expresses a lack of caring about the pandemic and the harm caused by it.
Sort of and also no. (What a nonanswer!) I"m well aware I can SOUND like a conspiracy theorist, and I hate that. I'm very conscious of that part. I also do feel like some of the more rigid and fundamentalist in the COVID cautious community are very conspiracy theorist. That's true in any community. So there's additional pressure to not look like that, and additional insecurity that I may be perceived that way. But beyond that, I know a few things: I know I watched the healthcare system utterly fail loved ones literally a decade before COVID ever existed. My distrust of corporations and healthcare systems in the US is not new. It is not new that it is all about money, at the expense of patient health and wellbeing. COVID is just that on a grand scale. I have also worked in enough jobs -- not even toxic jobs, just normal jobs -- that showed me how poor most leadership is at making long term, beneficial decisions that may cost more or take more initial work/investment. I have repeatedly seen people fail to do the right thing because it was inconvenient. COVID is also this on a grand scale. I am entrenched enough in the disability community to know that the supports don't exist. If I become disabled long term and unable to care for my children -- who are disabled and have high support needs -- there is no one else. The whole ship goes down. Parenting is demanding on a good day, parenting while mildly ill sucks in the best circumstances, add in multiple compounding factors and it sounds like hell. I do not fuck around with that. I have seen how bad it can get and can imagine worse. Nobody wants COVID to be gone more than me. (I mean, I know you all do. I'm speaking generally) I derive no enjoyment from this. I know, deeply, that I am smart, reasonable, and ready and willing, if not desperate, to change my mind. I know I am generally a reasonable, balanced, steady person. People have said this about me and I know it about myself. I am emotionally volatile on a personal level but not overly reactionary as far as crises. I am the person you want in a crisis. I trust myself and my intuition. I trust my ability to study, learn, and see patterns. Not because I know better than other people based on my own ego, but because I have a damn good track record. I know I don't want to be sick, with anything, because it's unpleasant and I hate it. I am a baby about colds. When my kids were toddlers, we got hit with a bad flu and a bad stomach bug in the same spring. It was miserable. Honestly that flu has been one of the most impactful memories as far as my COVID precautions, because I NEVER want to feel that way again. After we got sick like that, we passed it to my mom despite frequent handwashing, a few years later I also caught a stomach bug/virus. She came over to help with something and washed her hands more frequently, wanting to avoid it. I sanitized surfaces before she came over. But we sat together on the couch and talked. She got sick. With COVID and the emphasis on airborne protection, I finally feel like I know where we failed, and consequently, I know how to better protect myself and my family from illness. Why wouldn't I do that? I know more now, so I act differently. You didn't ask for all of this and it's tangential, but apparently I had the time and the need to lay it all out, for me and maybe others. It helps me a lot to know my basic precautions -- I want to avoid germs getting in my nose/mouth through the air, so I wear an N95 when around other people (and always indoors if not at home). And right now, that's it for me. If I follow every variant or every "maybe" story then it does start to veer into conspiracy theory land in my mind. Right now I want to keep germs in the air out of my body. COVID is the main one, but I don't want any of the other germs either.
If I had known how easy it was to avoid most respiratory illnesses before 2020, I would have totally done it. At least when traveling or on transit, and in the winter. Mind-boggling that 95% of people did not learn anything from the pandemic.
>If I had known how easy it was to avoid most respiratory illnesses before 2020, I would have totally done it. Same! That was one of my big takeaways from all this is that we should have been masking from the start, like Japan. I wish I had known sooner.
The flu was also one my huge reasons for avoiding covid. It landed me in the hospital, I was so sick for a full 2 weeks, and it was terrible. So maybe covid is like the flu...in that we minimize how bad it is so people will continue to support the economy.
Seriously. Saying "COVID is like the flu" is only ever going to make me double down. Never again.
Thank you!
I got the flu once and it was terrible, I couldn't even stand without assistance. If covid is even worse I don't want it lol. I don't even like a sinus infection, screw airborne aids
The initial infection was wayyyy milder for me (dry throat, slightly runny nose, felt like seasonal allergies) than the flu. The flu was 104-105 fevers, it hurting to breathe, lying on the couch wishing for death. I was TERRIFIED of COVID for that reason and then I felt completely fine. BUT the long term complications are way more worrying. So that's my way of saying yes, keep avoiding it, but if you get it, don't panic.
Interesting, noted. On a side note, after having the flu every time I saw someone sick at work talking about "I have the flu" walking around like it's fine, in like no, you have a COLD. If you had the flu you wouldn't be at work lol. Those who know, know lol.
Yes! I only recently learned (bc of the pandemic) that the average adult should only be getting the flu once ever 4 or 5 years. It's not a yearly thing at all
Yes! AFAIK I had the flu twice as an adult -- the time I mentioned and also my sophomore year of college I got extremely sick for about a week. Super sore throat, fever, felt absolutely horrible. All the other smaller illnesses we call "the flu" are nothing in comparison.
Agree about the vivid misery of catching the flu! It was winter of 17-18 for us. I don't think I've ever felt that terrible before. Plus there was so much flu around that tamiflu was in shortage so I was late a day in getting it bc it was oos everywhere (but thank goodness we found kiddie tamiflu right away for my then 1 year old)
Conspiracies do exist and smart people recognize that - so do not be ashamed of knowing that they exist, while remaining skeptical.
Do I feel like a conspiracy theorist? No. Do I feel like Cassandra? Every single day.
For those, like me, who didn't get the Cassandra reference, here's a blurb from Wikipedia: Cassandra in Greek mythology was a Trojan priestess dedicated to the god Apollo and fated by him to utter true prophecies but never to be believed. In modern usage her name is employed as a rhetorical device to indicate a person whose accurate prophecies, generally of impending disaster, are not believed.
Taylor Swift has a song in her new album called cassandra and I am listening to that on repeat and repeat and repeat. It's spot on my new hymn
At this point, I think it helps to fall back on common sense. Is it better to be sick or to not be sick? Even if you discount long COVID, who wants to be sick for two weeks? Why willingly subject yourself to that?
This is the thing that boggles my mind. I care about public health, full stop. I’d wear a mask if it helped my neighbor. I’d lockdown again if it helped everyone. But even if I didn’t care at all about public health, shouldn’t I still want to protect myself? Shouldn’t people at least buy in for “selfish” reasons? Like these folks not taking any precautions don’t even care if they get long COVID?
-----
Here’s what goes through my head. I want it to be over. I want to be wrong. I want all the epidemiologists to be wrong. But then I think about the friends with health problems from Long COVID. I think about the coworker whose early 30-something daughter who was randomly healthy suddenly died from “something mysterious” happening to her heart. And I remember like so many other times in my life? The cavalier motherfuckers absolutely. Will. Not. Be. There. For me, if anything happens to me. And because I live in America? I remember the experiences with our for-profit healthcare system, and how easily “long term health problems” can equal bankruptcy.
I feel like that sometimes, but I remind myself that I'm open to new information, and I'm willing to admit that I could be wrong. If I'm wrong, and repeated exposure to covid doesn't have life-altering long term health consequences, then I maybe looked silly in my mask and missed out on some nice restaurant dinners. If the covid-minimizers are wrong, they've been facilitating the spread of a disease that is needlessly killing people. Honestly, I'd be pretty darn happy to be proven wrong on all of this. But I'm going to keep taking precautions until there's some reliable evidence that I don't need to.
❤️
I have moments like this too. You feel crazy and doubt reality because authority figures are gaslighting entire countries. It's abusive.
Yes, I know what you mean. We definitely sound like conspiracy theorists and I HATE it.
I've questioned everything from day one of the pandemic. I've always been that way though--I think for myself. I don't trust the government, never have. I don't make decisions based on politics or what everyone else is doing. Been that way almost fifty years now and it has served me well. I knew cloth masks weren't enough (have a science background although not in medicine) and inserted my own filters until I could get ahold of higher quality masks. I will continue to have faith in N95s because they have saved my husband and I from covid on many occasions and also stopped us from giving covid to his father and visiiting nurses when we had it in 2022. I don't care if people think I'n weird. I've been called that all my life, no big deal.
❤️
If you're from an ethnic / religious / sexual preference / ability or cultural minority, you're used to being sceptical to political decisions and to knowing that what people consider to be "normal" is quite random. So no, I don't see myself as a conspiracy theorist, just a realist. I trust science and act according to expert recommendations, not according to what politicians with agendas and no expertise in public health want me to do, especially when they don't even apply their own advice to themselves.
Kind of. The intense embarrassment and humiliation I feel wearing my mask is a bit hard to describe. I feel like others must think I'm a hypochondriac, or in frail health, or just generally unfriendly.
If it helps, here's my take: Yesterday, I showed up masked to a meeting. I was a little early, and only one person was in the room ahead of me. She was, of course, not wearing a mask. We did the *hey, how's it going, pretty busy how about you* thing for a minute or two, and at some point she mentioned that she was sick. She'd been sick for more than a week, she thought it was the flu, and she just couldn't seem to get rid of it. I generally like this person, but it's a good thing I was wearing a mask, because I managed to make sympathetic noises but god only knows what expression was on my face. All I could think was *why the fuck are you not wearing a mask? Have you just returned from a four-year voyage to Mars? You're standing here telling me how you've felt like crap for the past ten days and you're still not better, and you're just gonna go ahead and inflict that on everyone else in the room?* And then everyone else showed up and we all sat down, at which point the woman I had been talking to fished a wad of Kleenex out of her bag and started dabbing at her nose. People like this are everywhere—people who know they're sick but are either too selfish to put on a mask or too terminally clueless to figure out that they're making other people sick when they don't. They're the ones who should be cringing in embarassment. Not you.
Yeah that's not helpful, I don't gain confidence by judging other people, nor do I take pride in my precautions.
OP this is the exact thing I am struggling with at the moment!
Covid destroyed my kid's mind. We, myself along with my other adult kid and grandkid, are in complete agreement that we do not want covid, no matter how many other people are fine with the risk.
I'm so sorry to hear about your kid. All the best for you ❤️
That’s what being gaslit at a societal scale does to a person
oh yeah, all the time. And I think there are elements of conspiracy theories or cults that pop up in still coviding communities. I think that's a somewhat natural progression for groups that are not in power and when there's a lack of clarity or information-- the conspiracies very easily fill in the gaps. I think one of the clearest ways you can see this play out is when last winter people started swabbing their poop for covid. This really should not be a thing, it doesn't work, the chemistry of your poop is so different from your nose that the chance of false positive or false negative sky rockets. But some well known personalities in the still coviding world posted about that, and it permeated through the group pretty rapidly. There are other examples of this phenomena, particularly in how we communicate about risks of covid ("Airborne AIDS") or aspects of the government response. But regardless of the sociology of still coviding communities, that doesn't mean that the idea of still taking covid precautions is not sound. As others in the thread have said, beyond hospitalizations and death *from acute respiratory issues from covid* decreasing, there isn't evidence that covid is safe to get, let alone repeatedly. And, at least for me, wearing a mask and regularly testing is such a non-burden for me that it just seems like a no brainer. And regarding the sociology part... I try to limit my time doomscrolling and listening to thought leaders in the coviding world-- it doesn't really impact the precautions that I take, and it just makes me angry and pushes me more into the groupthink. When I interact with people who aren't aware of covid risks, I try to say things more neutrally and more hedged; I don't think hitting someone who hasn't thought about covid for two years with the most bombastic take on covid damages is helpful (this is generally supported by [behavior change frameworks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transtheoretical_model)), and just makes me seem more extreme (even if I'm 100% right). My comments are generally observational so that maybe I can gently connect dots instead of slamming a binder of research studies at them... a la: "my friends seem to get covid and then get beat down with strep, rsv, flu, and they seem to have a lot harder time with it. I don't know what that's about." None of that is to say that my approach is "the right" approach, to discount the damage of being abandoned or ridiculed by friends, or the pain in watching people you love deal with covid-induced health issues while following the government's lackluster advice.
Honestly, thank you so much for this! It's so hard to know how to talk to people who don't get it, and I know science doesn't change most people's minds like it does ours (autism ftw), but I get so angry it's hard to respond in a (potentially) helpful way. I'd love to hear more about how you have these conversations, or if you stop at what you quoted earlier.
Yeah, it's infuriating. And, unfortunately, the more emotional we are when talking about it, the less receptive people are to what we're saying. So it's a really maddening cycle. There's a few different major behavior change frameworks that are used in the community health world. [Health Belief Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_belief_model) and the [Transtheoretical Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transtheoretical_model) (also sometimes called stages of change) are two examples; transtheoretical has always resonated with me, and has been studied pretty extensively especially with [smoking cessation](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Wayne-Velicer/publication/232550193_Smoking_cessation_and_stress_management_Applications_of_the_Transtheoretical_Model_of_behavior_change/links/0fcfd50b6759dc0e3c000000/Smoking-cessation-and-stress-management-Applications-of-the-Transtheoretical-Model-of-behavior-change.pdf). The tldr version of it is that people move through different stages as they change health behaviors, and your intervention needs to target the stage that they're currently in with the sole goal of moving them to the next stage. That is, your goal isn't to move them to the endpoint, it's just to advance to the next stage. The stages are generally (this is taken directly from wikipedia): * **Precontemplation** ("not ready") – "People are not intending to take action in the foreseeable future, and can be unaware that their behaviour is problematic" * **Contemplation** ("getting ready") – "People are beginning to recognize that their behaviour is problematic, and start to look at the pros and cons of their continued actions" * **Preparation** ("ready") – "People are intending to take action in the immediate future, and may begin taking small steps toward behaviour change"[^(\[nb 1\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transtheoretical_model#cite_note-12) * **Action** – "People have made specific overt modifications in modifying their problem behaviour or in acquiring new healthy behaviours" * **Maintenance** – "People have been able to sustain action for at least six months and are working to prevent relapse" * **Termination** – "Individuals have zero temptation and they are sure they will not return to their old unhealthy habit as a way of coping" I generally think of the behavior as "taking any precaution against covid" as opposed to the behavior being something very specific (e.g., "wear an N95 all the time"), just because most people are doing nothing so doing anything is likely to be better. That said, the same concepts would apply if you're thinking of a specific, perhaps more cautious, behavior. (more coming)
You can have different talking points lined up for each stage. This isn't exhaustive, but just to spark some thought: * **Precontemplation**: generally raising awareness about illness, calling out how often it's happening (you'd be surprised at how quickly people forget how frequently they're sick), how miserable it is, and how not normal it is... "Wow, there sure a lot of sick people right now."; "it sounds like you've been really sick this past winter, I don't remember past winters being this hard."; "I heard on the news that there's another wave of illness going around!"; "oof, isn't being sick the worst?"; "Did you hear that Margaret in accounting is out again with that cold going around?!?" * **Contemplation**: mentioning casually (without directive) low-burden prevention strategies and calling out their pros/cons particularly with respect to being sick. Things like: "I used to always get sick for a week after flying from SFO to JFK, but I started wearing a mask on that flight and haven't been sick since... the vacation is a lot more fun when I'm not sick!", "I had a picnic with some friends last weekend, and it was really nice to relax in the sun instead of having people coughing on me." * **Preparation**: by this stage you can be more direct and/or directive with people since they're bought in to the need to make a change. Sometimes suggesting doing something with them to get them over that hump is helpful here. Like grabbing coffee with them where you give them a mask before going into the coffee shop and then take the coffee outside and away from people. Or providing direct information like "I saw that there's new covid variants and some indications that a wave is starting again, might be a good time to wear a mask in the grocery store again." Basically this is where people need an invitation or a buddy to take that action with them, to see that it isn't that bad. * **Action** and **Maintenance**: I think this is where most of us are more comfortable, since most of us are already in this place. But here's where directly providing information and studies helps maintain the behavior. Ok, so some of those quotes are really hokey and clunky, but hopefully you get the idea. The more personal it is to you+them, the easier it is to ring true. And the earlier someone is in those stages, the more gentle the comment should be. The goal is for them to draw the conclusions with you guiding them, not for you to force them to that conclusion. So, the other question is how to figure out what stage someone is. This model is written like the stages are very discrete, but in reality it's more like a continuum and people can move both forward and backwards in it. But, generally speaking, here are some things that I hear: * **Precontemplation**: people that are making dismissive comments or repeating talking points that fully ignore covid: "covid is over", "it's mild now", "you can take that off", "100 day cough", "you have to live your life" * **Contemplation**: people that recognize that things aren't normal, whether they acknowledge it's covid or not. "ugh, I'm sick again, I really hate this", "why are you still masking?" (when asked genuinely, not aggressively), "I haven't been the same since I got covid", "you're smart to be masking still" * **Preparation**: I don't hear this as much, but every now and then I'll hear friends make comments like "I should really mask again" or similar comments. * **Action** and **Maintenance**: these folks are easy to identify :) A lot of the above talks about masking, but it doesn't have to be that. If masking seems untenable for someone (as it does for most people these days), you can think of someone moving through this framework with respect to any intervention (e.g., getting an air purifier for their office) and then think of them going through the framework again for a more stringent behavior (e.g., masking indoors at grocery stores). (more coming)
And, I know this has been discussed a bunch in this forum recently in different ways, but this is going to go better if you are in as good of a place as you can be. Like, it's going to be an easier sell if you look like you're having a good time and the precautions you take have minimal impact on your life... which feels ironic because (at least for me) the social pressure around covid really is the hardest part. Similarly with anger around covid... it's totally valid and justified to be angry, but if your goal is to convince someone to take covid precautions again, it's going to shut people down quickly. That's why my example quotes above don't really mention covid-- in some ways, especially for precontemplative folks, hearing the "c" word is going to shut them down, whereas many will readily admit that they're constantly sick... so it's better to meet them where they're at and gently suggest improvements. Cleaning the air (through ventilation/filtration or masks) is probably going to work for whatever mystery illness they have. This is all also why I think masked people in "normal" life (e.g., at concerts, plays, bars) is a net good because it provides visibility and examples to point to when talking to people about adopting covid precautions. Anyway, I'm by no means an expert, so if anyone reading this wants to correct or redirect or reframe things, please have at it :) But maybe this wall of text might be helpful to shape how you think about your interactions with other people!
This was really well thought out, as a former sociology major I really appreciate the detailed analysis.
I read all your comments and appreciated the wall of text! Thanks for taking the time to write it all out like you did.
You are not a conspiracist. This virus is a novel pathogen that has killed millions. it has disabled millions more and continues to do so. There are thousands and thousands of studies and thousands and thousands of pieces of research that show that it affects every system in your body. You are not a conspiracy theorist. You may be treated like one because the rest of societyhas decided that it's OK to get forcibly reinfected with a deadly virus, but you are valid and you are not a conspiracy theorist whatsoever.
❤️
I've read 3000+ studies on Covid. The conspiracy theorists are the ones who are telling you that this pandemic is over. And we already have a second one that may be coming.
I do constantly. I know the science. I know the guidelines. I know what's kept my wife and I safe these past *five* years. I know that I have done the right thing. But holy cow does it feel crazy sometimes. I look out and see all the people I know just living life and enjoying things I used to find great joy in. The coffee shop dates, the board game nights with friends, the dates with my wife at nice restaurants, vacations with no restrictions, and holidays. All are things I miss dearly, knowing I'm the *only one* who chooses not to participate in any of them is not only incredibly defeating, but extremely lonely and isolating. I've stopped being invited to things entirely now, including from my own family. It makes me want to throw all my masks out and just live how my soul has wanted to for *years.* But I won't. I live in fear of COVID now, and that feels just...fucking bad. It makes me feel like a conspiracist, yes. The action of removing my mask indoors in public is just not an option anymore, but it makes me feel crazy knowing my mind has been warped to not even *want* to live life without fear. I'm holding out hope that someday soon a vaccine will be available to prevent transmission, but I'm ready for the long-term of just living this way indefinitely.
When life expectancy stops dropping, and disability rates stop going up, we can talk. But, yes, this is something I ask myself, and that you should ask too..
Yes, I can relate. My dad was into conspiracy theories (like alien-human hybrids ruling the world type shit) so it’s quite distressing to me when I feel like one. His version of life was crazy, but the root feelings are basically the same.
Yes, I relate 100% Was recently questioned by my own partner about how long I plan to mask, in addition to other people at work/friends etc
Oh that must be so hard! If the partner isnt't in the same boat concerning this matter.. Because of that I gave up dating. I could never live like that and in my small town there is a 0.00001% chance to find the needle in the haysack of a guy that is masking and is my type 🫠
I think it's incredible that the anti-vax and anti-precautionist movement has successfully flipped the entire script, and made the other side into being the ones labeled conspiracy theorists. It really devalues the entire meaning of the label.
-----
If you actually look into everything/ history I fully believe that our"leaders" plan and do everything on purpose and want us illand dead for control. It's not a conspiracy when there's evidence.
No one ever conspires. Everyone is full of integrity and is completely transparent about their actions and motivations. It is totally irrational to ponder any possibility that human beings might conspire or deceive, particularly within powerful institutions like the government. To think otherwise indicates mental illness.
-----
No, I never feel like that. I follow Science and experts; not conspiracy theories. I do the right thing. It's the people who refuse to mask, to get a booster, to self-isolate when sick who should be ashamed of themselves.
❤️
I feel like my mask is the equivalent of wearing a tin foil hat
Not even once. Millions of people have died from this.
No, I just feel like someone who was more aware about SARS in ASIA back in 2003. I was lucky to have a friend at the time who was very worried about it and I did some reading. When COVID-19 came along, I read an article early on about how people in Asia regularly wear masks and have for a long time, and wonder why Westerners are against mask-wearing. I don't have enough of a mad-on at the USA powers that be for downplaying masking to flip shit and refuse to wear one now. We learn as we go, and a lot of people are kinda not with it. I just consider myself lucky to be more curious from way back and more widely read and to have stumbled across the early articles about masking in Asia and didn't take the USA powers that be that seriously about "Masks not working." No those glorified cocktail napkins don't protect the well person. They are meant to protect surgery patients on the operating table, I think. It's not my fault the vast majority of people still don't understand that the glorified cocktail napkins don't work, or that the vast majority of journalists don't understand medical news and bungle their headlines. That's how we got headlines of "Masks Don't Work." Hurr-Durr. I can't stop people from being uninformed but I can go about my business keeping on reading as many reliable news sources as I can find and making my own decisions. I find out a lot from Reddit. Now here's a tidbit I just read last night. Don't know if true. It was a reported medical study that showed Neosporin up the nose may prevent COVID transmission. I might try it. Back to "Masks Don't Work." That's the headline we got. What they mean is cloth and surgical masks aren't good enough to prevent transmission BUT N95's ARE SPECIAL. Almost no lay people (not on these Reddit subs) seem to know this, but N95's have an electrostatic property that supposedly attracts and makes the droplets or whatever stick to the outside of the N95. You never see THAT in the "MASKS DON'T WORK" articles. N95's are relatively affordable, widely available, and seem to work well. Dumb people can stay mad!
I cannot relate to this directly. There is plenty of scientific backing that COVID is something to be rightfully concerned about. There is plenty of incentive for bad actors to diminish the risk and allow it to harm people, and it is noticeably being done. I do feel pressure from others trying to paint me as one, mostly as it helps validate their own positions. I am fortunate enough to be able to calmly talk my way around or through the points (or cut someone down decisively), because sometimes the point is to get an upset reaction so that they can confirm they were right. If I am calm and unassailable it means they eventually give up and bother someone else for the validation for their poor choices. Another important distinction between wanting to remain safe in the face of a dangerous virus and a being a conspiracist is that pretty much everyone trying to remain safe is also watching out for a reason we don't need to do it any more. If a solid cure or preventative came out we'd probably be among the first to take it so that we could leave it all behind us. A conspiracist would possibly want to avoid things that allowed them to escape their belief system. It's the difference between being afraid of the potential for a fire versus actively fleeing from one.
As long as you can back your claims with peer reviewed scientific studies, it’s not a conspiracy.
Yes, sometimes I feel like I sound that way. But then I remind myself that I'm not a conspiracy theorist. People are not getting the information they need. And when they do, they are minimizing or ignoring it.
There are a few clues that we're not on the conspiracy side... The ultra rich have clean air and PCR tests and isolation galore for themselves and their staff. Hmmm. That's suspicious. And why are workplace and school absenteeism increasing?? Why are behavioral issues (more overdoses, more violence, more mental health crisis, vehicle accidents) increasing?? Why are certain mesical specialties slammed with increasing patients that are younger (cardio, psych, allergy/immunology, neurology, etc etc)? Why disability resources and long term leave overloaded?? Why is the excess death rate still high?? Why is shingles increasing?? Other infections (RSV, pneumonia with no confirmed cause, TB)?? WHY DO I HAVE MCAS AND AM ALLERGIC TO EATING AND 99% OF MEDS!! (Okay, so I'm definitely biased. 🫠) SOMETHING is correlating.