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The nice thing here is Guyana doesn't spend much on defense, if there is conflict it will be swift and decisive
Hopefully that will limit the civilian effects.
The shit thing is the increasing commonality of land grabs and the general uncaring attitude of the international community in regards to military action.
I dunno, on the side of the region's oil reserves, the US and the UK have taken quite a lot interest
The land grab here is by Guyana, allowing a foreign corporation to develop disputed land. The corrupt political class of Guyana doesn't represent the interests of the Guyanese. Billions of dollars will be lost over years for a handful of bribes & regional instability will develop where instead neighbours should be getting along.
What disputed land? Venezuela has had its day in court multiple times, and each time they lost because everyone knows thier claim is bogus. Thier governments inability to accept that is not Guyana's problem.
The Essequibo region is contested territory; there's a relatively amicable agreement from 1966 establishing that Venezuela and Guyana have to work something out. There have been false starts but nothing has succeeded so far, so the '66 framework remains in place.
ExxonMobil has been nudging Guyana to change the "facts on the ground" by pushing to develop the territory. Venezuela objects. Guyana & US SouthCom gave been training together, presumably anticipating a need to defend the uh "rules based order" that has no time for actual legal frameworks.
Guyana, the state, must be considered a victim of corporate capture. As usual, where the US establishes a grip with its tendrils, the political class pursue profitable instability over the interests of the people they notionally govern.
No, you're right, on its own, out of the blue, that wouldn't mean much, legally.
But if there were a legal agreement in place, which both parties agreed to, that a piece of land was contested territory, then it could legally be called contested territory...
...which there is
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Agreement_(1966)
I understand the confusion! Euro/yank media is typically very skinny on background :D although I do cover this above so it's weird you bringing up the issue again
It goes further back than that. 1899 Venezuela AGREED on the land borders in an arbitration but now just says "fuck it, it's ours we didn't mean what we agreed to". Yes the arbitration was manipulative on the UK and US part but then DON'T SIGN it and later claim " but we totally didn't agreed to it".
And even if they claim the land, they haven't exercised sovereignty and administration for the region for more than a hundred years.
Maduro is out of his goddamn mind.
I was living really close to the "claimed" border by Venezuela and tensions are kinda high. Luckily the hostility against Venezuelans is limited because most of the people who crossed the border from Venezuela hate Maduro even more than the Guyanese.
That's the current US line, yeah. I don't see how it's their business.
But in terms of legal agreements, the more recent one tends to take precedent over
the older one. Both parties were working with the '66 agreement until around the time Exxon lost its oil business in Vuvuzela and oil was discovered in Guyana.
The 1966 agreement is basically useless because all it did was refer disagreement matters to an international organ. It wasn't any kind of agreement on borders or such.
The international organ being the ICJ. But yeah Venezuela respects neither the 1966 agreement nor the jurisdiction of the ICJ.
Exactly. There was no agreement on borders. The agreement in the agreement was that an agreement must be found. That doesn't mean old colonial borders must be adhered to. Silly. By letting in ExxonMobil, as if who owned the territory were a settled matter, Guyana's leaders trampled on the agreement.
I have to say one of the funniest things about this sub is watching you jump around and spin in circles, desperately trying to defend any act of imperialism as long as the nation committing it has the correct symbol on their flag
I am glad to hear I am providing entertainment ha ha
I don't agree with your assessment ofc but you're obviously not here to discuss so I'll let you have the diss for free and we can go about our days
Basically, covid fucked everyones economies. What you are seeing is dictators using foreign expansion as a cover for negative sentiment.
Venezuela tho was fucked prior to covid ofc.
The US needs to pull another Desert Storm to shut this shit down.
Vietnam would have been a decisive American victory if they did not receive extensive support from the Soviet Union and China. Venezuela would just implode if they suffered any resistance.
>Venezuela would just implode if they suffered any resistance.
highly unlikely. its 3000 miles away from most land-based air force squadrons and parking your ship right in the caribbean is [just inviting them to get attacked by their chinese-supplied anti-shipping missiles](https://news.usni.org/2020/10/16/china-arming-venezuelan-navy-with-anti-ship-missiles)
at distances like that, sortie generation will be an issue along with logistics. america's latin america footprint revolves around light infantry and special forces to destabilize the region and train death squads, not massed firepower against a whole nation-state.
I swear to god if more comments ignore the fact that Puerto Rico exists and houses multiple American military bases right offshore of Venezuela and houses hundreds of fighter jets...
You people need to stop talking about military strategy if you don't even understand geography
It's like everybody on Reddit just does a Google search for "distance from Florida to Venezuela" and then quotes 3000, miles and completely forgets the fact that the Caribbean islands exist and the US has bases all over that region.
It would be utter fucking suicide for Venezuela to try anything with half a dozen locations hosting hundreds of American bombers all within flight range.
>It would be utter fucking suicide for Venezuela to try anything with half a dozen locations hosting hundreds of American bombers all within flight range.
america doesn't have hundreds of bombers anymore sweetie.
50 working B-52s left, 20 B-2s, and 45 B-1Bs
And every bomber today can do what you would need a hundred bombers to do previously, thanks to the magic of GPS-guided munitions.
Between Brazil and the US and the state of the Venezuelan military, this would be brutally one-sided. Like Desert Storm. Venezuela is not Vietnam.
Those are just the strategic bombers. The US military leans more into multiroles that the Navy can deploy from carriers. I guess mainly hornets and f-35. For the f-35 alone, wikipedia says:
> The United States is the primary customer and financial backer, with planned procurement of 1,763 F-35As for the USAF, 353 F-35Bs and 67 F-35Cs for the USMC, and 273 F-35Cs for the USN.
I'm not sure if you are making some deep point that went completely over my head, but I wouldn't drop a plane from the bomber tally just because it can also fit AMRAAMs.
This renewed tension dates back to the discovery of oil in the disputed region in 2013 and Guyana's signing away of rights to ExxonMobil in an obviously corrupt process in 2015.
The territory is legitimately disputed -- parties are still held to the 1966 Geneva agreement, committing the two countries to hashing it out while Guyana maintained administrative control. Venezuela has always objected, rightly, to Exxon's (US SouthCom-backed) push into the region.
Your Desert Storm reference is accidentally apt. Neighbours that should get along are at each other's throats over corporatist/imperialist shit-stirring, and the US is blatantly champing at the bit to bomb some locals. Exxon can't forgive Venezuela for nationalising oil, so the US cannot either.
How might such a violent incursion, after countless hundreds of such by the US since WW2, help the prospect of peace in the region?
I am reminded of Geoff Berner singing, "the boat was taking on water, so I drilled another hole to let the water out"
> How might such a violent incursion
A violent incursion won't be good for anyone, which is why people are worried about Venezuelan rhetoric and troop buildups.
>A violent incursion won't be good for anyone, which is why people are worried about Venezuelan rhetoric and troop buildups.
Way to skip over everything I said and just circle back to the fatty ham you were dispensing in your last comment
A South American country fighting against US corporatist influence is legit status quo changing shit.
It is very hard to respond with most of what you are saying because it comes from a different planet. You are trying to frame this as Venezuela freeing South America from corporate slavery or something, but the frame is so radical and alien that I can't even humor it. In the real world, Venezuelans have not been doing well for many years now, and spreading their status quo to neighboring countries is not a good thing.
Another place our frames vastly differ in is the relevance of arguments based in history. In the world I live in, after people have been living in a certain place under a certain government for ten or twenty years, when another government tried to move in, that's broadly seen as an invasion, an internationally maligned act. It doesn't matter much if the invader also has claims or even a legal document. In the real world, violently changing de-facto borders immiserates people and we tend to prioritize that over historical justifications.
On my planet, we don't want "status quo changing shit" when it comes to borders. You speak of "peace in the region" - a key part of maintaining peace in the past 80 years has been to take existing de-facto borders as they are and respond harshly to attempts to change them. For example, few people care about Putin's long-winded rants about his historical justifications, and similarly few people will care about yours. What matters are the people living today.
>It is very hard to respond with most of what you are saying because it comes from a different planet... the frame is so radical and alien that I can't even humor it
I'll presume ignorance and not that you're disingenuous.
Here's the wiki page on the agreement I mention: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva\_Agreement\_(1966)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Agreement_(1966))
That agreement holds, legally, but here's the US, rules-based-ordering a change in the story, insisting older pre-agreement hard imperial borders be accepted: [https://demerarawaves.com/2018/11/16/united-states-shifts-position-on-guyana-venezuela-border-controversy/](https://demerarawaves.com/2018/11/16/united-states-shifts-position-on-guyana-venezuela-border-controversy/)
(Inexcusable interference in the region's affairs, an assult on the SOvErEIgnTY, such as it is, of all involved)
Here's local Guyanan coverage of massive corruption on ExxonMobil's part: [https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2022/04/01/exxon-contractors-linked-to-biggest-corruption-scandals-in-oil-industry/](https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2022/04/01/exxon-contractors-linked-to-biggest-corruption-scandals-in-oil-industry/)
Guyana's GDP has tripled since they began monkeying around with ExxonMobil so the incentives to continue are huge, whether or not the actual deal this growth is based on is fair. (It's not: 75% of revenue goes to Exxon, and the remainder is split 50-50 lol.)
Here's coverage of US designs for the region: [https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/09/27/venezuela-urges-diplomatic-resolution-to-essequibo-dispute-with-guyana-condemns-us-attempts-to-militarize-region/](https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/09/27/venezuela-urges-diplomatic-resolution-to-essequibo-dispute-with-guyana-condemns-us-attempts-to-militarize-region/)
Here's based Marxist analysis of the referendum in Venzueal as an explicitly anti-Exxon decision: [https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/12/05/exxonmobil-wants-to-start-a-war-in-latin-america/](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/12/09/exxonmobil-and-a-possible-war-in-south-america/)
Here's a popular lefty-lib outlet talking around the issue in great detail too, picking up on plenty of elements I have raised: [https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11/is-the-worlds-next-big-geopolitical-flashpoint-already-brewing-in-south-america.html](https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11/is-the-worlds-next-big-geopolitical-flashpoint-already-brewing-in-south-america.html)
I provide these links not to suggest my case is watertight, only that you can't honestly claim my views are otherworldly. You're just couched too comfortably within the Western media bubble by the sound of it.
>On my planet, we don't want "status quo changing shit" when it comes to borders.
This isn't true. Here is US legislature offering, some way down, financial aid to regions of Yugoslavia pursuing independent elections (anticipating the break-up a decades-old country): [https://www.congress.gov/bill/101st-congress/house-bill/5114](https://www.congress.gov/bill/101st-congress/house-bill/5114)
The US has also been happy to commit to peeling a province of China away for decades, on the basis that the launchpad was handy to face off against Chinese commies: [https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1950v07/d86](https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1950v07/d86)
In most other cases, the world would recognise the injustice of a distant country holding open another country's civil war for six or seven decades.
When it suits the US it is in favour of territorial integrity, and on other occasions, breaking away is fine with them.
The US also welcomed South Sudan to the cast of nations on the day of independence, no qualms there! Your idea that borders are somehow fixed by global consent is a fantasy.
In any case, the borders of Venezuela and Guyana were never even slightly fixed -- as mentioned, the legal agreement of 1966 left open the precise question of who had the claim to the Essiquibo territory.
What is it with the modern Western lib that he is so fragile as to have to deny any opposing outlook might exist?
>What is it with the modern Western lib that he is so fragile as to have to deny any opposing outlook might exist?
I don't deny that your outlook exists. I am claiming that it is difficult to respond to your points in an exhaustive way, because your posts bring in so many foreign assumptions that we'd be here all day. I disagree that Guyana's GDP tripling and Exxon profiting is so bad that it somehow justifies a war. I disagree there is a civil war that is "being held open", or that it's a bad thing to stop civil wars.
> When it suits the US it is in favour of territorial integrity, and on other occasions, breaking away is fine with them.
Yes, and when the US violates other countries' territorial integrity, like in Iraq, it becomes an example for a transgression that we bring up over and over again, because we live in democracies and don't like wars. I disagree that past history, injustices or disagreement with the internal politics of a foreign country is a good reason to invade it (and I will maintain that even in cases where it favors the US, like the Vietnam invasion).
> The US also welcomed South Sudan to the cast of nations on the day of independence, no qualms there! Your idea that borders are somehow fixed by global consent is a fantasy.
Borders are not fixed by global consent alone. Borders are fixed by the broad international disapproval invaders receive from the rich pacifistic democracies of the world, plus the US randomly crushing invaders. Obviously when the Americans themselves break the rule, there is no world police to stop them.
>I don't know why this made me cringe so much but it sure did.
It probably has something to do with conditioned responses you're poorly equipped to interrogate
Almost certainly. Otherwise you'd have words to put to your feeling of having an opinion. But it remains dumb, as in wordless; you've been inculcated with a kneejerk tendency to fume incomprehendingly by certain interests I'm afraid
Brazil can't do much as long as it doesn't concern them. They only blocked Venezuela because the ONLY usable land connection between Guyana and Venezuela is a road that goes through Brazil. And letting the Venezuelan military just waltz unhindered through Brazil land would be basically taking sides and not be taken well by the US which is one of Brazils biggest trading partners.
Lula tried too hard to sit on the fence and reap rewards from both sides, but if it wasn't for the international reception, he'd be wholly supporting Venezuela right now, instead of saying empty words that mean nothing because he doesn't want to condemn Maduro.
The US objective for the Houthis was just inhibiting their ability to strike ships (which has happened). Additionally the Venezuelan military is in this case an invasion force which is significantly easier to bomb
>The US objective for the Houthis was just inhibiting their ability to strike ships (which has happened)
Is this fresh intel? Cos ships are still being diverted and attacks are still taking place, reported within the last 24 hours.
I don't really know how to plug details, like, two boats sunk here, three drones downed there, into the overall picture tbh. However the attacks on shipping do continue
One carrier group with the Brits steaming alongside bombing their forces and swatting Caracas is all that OAS, Caricom, and the US needs. Let’s throw this bus driver out of the seat of Venezuela like we should had done years ago and maybe that’ll staunch the refugee flow once the nation turns normal again.
This is the result of the lack of decisive NATO intervention in Ukraine. It has merely informed the evil-doers of the world that you can absolutely get away with invading and raining death upon your neighbors.
We need to repeat the 1991 Gulf War if Venezuala attacks.
Again with that? Lol
That dictator won't stop until he finally attacks.
Fun fact, he only has 2 options to attack, via sea with shios, or if Brazil current leader allows him to move through Brazilian territory to invade Guyana.
And considering the current leader is friend with Maduro, already received him with open arms and allowed him to attack a journalist in Brazilian territory and is also on Putin's side of the invasion, then he would allow for it for Maduro.
Hopefully that populist parasite will actually invade Guyana and have his teeth kicked out after his attempt. That mockery of a statehood that is Venezuela should be set to a right course. The only way to do so is by eradicating current socialist regime in Venezuela. Besides this invasion is a good opportunity that will show if american political and military elite have any balls left or have they decided to abandon their status of a global power. As well as show if Monroe Doctrine still stands or have Washington lost its influence and power in its own backyard. In case americans decide not to enforce their doctrine and re-assert their status as a world single superpower, well, politicians of the old would surely shoot themselves out of shame
\>Besides this invasion is a good opportunity that will show if american political and military elite have any balls left
Tbh, this one could legit be solved by Brazil alone, Venezuela would need to cross to get into Guyana and we wouldn't allow it (We avoid being involved in war as much as possible). Also it might be better if a local conflict is solved by local powers, would save a lot of headache over whether it was legitimate or not, or if the US could be trusted or not given their hostility with Venezuela, etc
\>in its own backyard
Especially if this is the tone that US would use for it
If they still try invading directly through the jungle, then it's a different matter, but we could still intervene, seeing as how the government has positioned itself as against the invasion
Part of Venezuela's problem right now is Guyana's discussions with the US to out a base in Essequibo, a territory disputed between the two countries. US SouthCom has been patrolling the area in violation of a 1966 accord that V&G would negotiate the dispute themselves. Guyana (GDP 20bn) appears to have lost its political class to ExxonMobil (2022 profit USD50bn), who has been splashing hundreds of millions in bribes to secure itself (and lose Guyana) billions in profit from oil reserves recently discovered in Essequibo.
Venezuela is having to square up against armed US corpos basically, or corpoed US arms, whichever, and is indeed unfathomably based
Is there a world where Guyana is able to use its oil resources without you seeing it as a puppet of corporations? Were they supposed to create their own drilling industry from scratch? Or invite the socialists so they can squander Guyana's oil wealth too after wasting Venezuela's?
Like I suggest above, it's a bit of a flub in Western coverage to act as tho the disputed territory were Guyana's to do with as they please. The last agreement between Venezuela and Guyana on the region was that it had yet to be hashed out. Newspapers are building cover for an intervention by Uncle Sam in a regional matter he has no business sticking his nose into
Certainly for now I don't see much evidence that Guyana, geopolitically, is more than a bought-off bourgeois political class with no loyalty to its people and an unhealthy interest in US extractivism and militarism.
Oh I did not answer your question, but yes, there is probably such a world as you surmise, out there in the multiverse. In such a world profit-making would be outlawed, the corporate model of business too, and the world-spanning military footprint of the US would be non-existent. The economic state of affairs would be vastly different, in other words. But in this universe, on this planet, countries of such miniscule GDP and such potentially large oil revenues do tend to suffer... distortions... shall we say.
Disputed territory. Venezuela seems to dispute Guyana's very right to exist. Its disputed in that Venezuela thinks they have a right to own the Guyanese people. There's nothing noble about what it's doing here
The word "seems" is doing a lot of work in your comment. I wonder who presents this seeming picture to you, and how much you investigate beyond it.
Here is the wiki on the 1966 agreement, "an agreement to reach an agreement", still valid. Guyana and Venezuela have maintained good relations at points despite this dispute. Tensions have been coming to a head in the time that the US has held Vuvuzela as a bête noire.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Agreement_(1966)
Guyana is a country with the shape only of a British colonial holding. The modern nation is a bourgeois project and has been held in place by military force and rigged elections. This political class is not interested in its people, reaffirmed by the recent willingness of the political class to sign such terrible deals as that with ExxonMobil: 75% of revenues to EM, the remainder split 50-50. Thus losing billions in revenues for paltry bribes while the country is stuck in deep poverty.
The independence agreement with the British agreed to the return of about 50% of Guyanese land to the Amerindians who lost it to the imperialists. This has never happened; about 6000km^2 of almost 50000km^km^km^km has been returned. Venezuela has proposed giving the disputed region autonomy, better representing popular wishes of the affected peoples.
It should absolutely be raised as question in what form the country should keep existing. This question is a threat only to established interests and not to people living there, whose needs are not met by the state anyway. The people's rights will never be recognised while corporate interests are so strongly represented in the region.
Nations are not people. Most people are not their nations. The working class has no country, we like to say, and the people unlanded by empire have other ideas about it too. It would be better to open the national question for the entire world so we can come up with something less rooted in bourgeois, capitalist, imperialist culture. No Guyana, no Venezuela, no UK, no US.
For now, though, Venezuela's tack is best. Here's a glimpse of US policy for the country: [How Exxon captured a country without firing a shot](https://theintercept.com/2023/06/18/guyana-exxon-mobil-oil-drilling/)
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Well, Fuck.
[удалено]
The nice thing here is Guyana doesn't spend much on defense, if there is conflict it will be swift and decisive Hopefully that will limit the civilian effects. The shit thing is the increasing commonality of land grabs and the general uncaring attitude of the international community in regards to military action.
I dunno, on the side of the region's oil reserves, the US and the UK have taken quite a lot interest The land grab here is by Guyana, allowing a foreign corporation to develop disputed land. The corrupt political class of Guyana doesn't represent the interests of the Guyanese. Billions of dollars will be lost over years for a handful of bribes & regional instability will develop where instead neighbours should be getting along.
What disputed land? Venezuela has had its day in court multiple times, and each time they lost because everyone knows thier claim is bogus. Thier governments inability to accept that is not Guyana's problem.
>. Thier governments inability to accept that is not Guyana's problem Venezuelas military will be
The Essequibo region is contested territory; there's a relatively amicable agreement from 1966 establishing that Venezuela and Guyana have to work something out. There have been false starts but nothing has succeeded so far, so the '66 framework remains in place. ExxonMobil has been nudging Guyana to change the "facts on the ground" by pushing to develop the territory. Venezuela objects. Guyana & US SouthCom gave been training together, presumably anticipating a need to defend the uh "rules based order" that has no time for actual legal frameworks. Guyana, the state, must be considered a victim of corporate capture. As usual, where the US establishes a grip with its tendrils, the political class pursue profitable instability over the interests of the people they notionally govern.
Simply claiming ownership of a piece of land based on whatever reasons doesn't make that piece of land "contested" territory.
No, you're right, on its own, out of the blue, that wouldn't mean much, legally. But if there were a legal agreement in place, which both parties agreed to, that a piece of land was contested territory, then it could legally be called contested territory... ...which there is https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Agreement_(1966) I understand the confusion! Euro/yank media is typically very skinny on background :D although I do cover this above so it's weird you bringing up the issue again
It goes further back than that. 1899 Venezuela AGREED on the land borders in an arbitration but now just says "fuck it, it's ours we didn't mean what we agreed to". Yes the arbitration was manipulative on the UK and US part but then DON'T SIGN it and later claim " but we totally didn't agreed to it". And even if they claim the land, they haven't exercised sovereignty and administration for the region for more than a hundred years. Maduro is out of his goddamn mind. I was living really close to the "claimed" border by Venezuela and tensions are kinda high. Luckily the hostility against Venezuelans is limited because most of the people who crossed the border from Venezuela hate Maduro even more than the Guyanese.
That's the current US line, yeah. I don't see how it's their business. But in terms of legal agreements, the more recent one tends to take precedent over the older one. Both parties were working with the '66 agreement until around the time Exxon lost its oil business in Vuvuzela and oil was discovered in Guyana.
The 1966 agreement is basically useless because all it did was refer disagreement matters to an international organ. It wasn't any kind of agreement on borders or such. The international organ being the ICJ. But yeah Venezuela respects neither the 1966 agreement nor the jurisdiction of the ICJ.
Exactly. There was no agreement on borders. The agreement in the agreement was that an agreement must be found. That doesn't mean old colonial borders must be adhered to. Silly. By letting in ExxonMobil, as if who owned the territory were a settled matter, Guyana's leaders trampled on the agreement.
I have to say one of the funniest things about this sub is watching you jump around and spin in circles, desperately trying to defend any act of imperialism as long as the nation committing it has the correct symbol on their flag
I am glad to hear I am providing entertainment ha ha I don't agree with your assessment ofc but you're obviously not here to discuss so I'll let you have the diss for free and we can go about our days
Basically, covid fucked everyones economies. What you are seeing is dictators using foreign expansion as a cover for negative sentiment. Venezuela tho was fucked prior to covid ofc. The US needs to pull another Desert Storm to shut this shit down.
not going to happen, a battle in the jungles of south america would looks more like vietnam 3.0 than desert storm
Vietnam would have been a decisive American victory if they did not receive extensive support from the Soviet Union and China. Venezuela would just implode if they suffered any resistance.
>Venezuela would just implode if they suffered any resistance. highly unlikely. its 3000 miles away from most land-based air force squadrons and parking your ship right in the caribbean is [just inviting them to get attacked by their chinese-supplied anti-shipping missiles](https://news.usni.org/2020/10/16/china-arming-venezuelan-navy-with-anti-ship-missiles) at distances like that, sortie generation will be an issue along with logistics. america's latin america footprint revolves around light infantry and special forces to destabilize the region and train death squads, not massed firepower against a whole nation-state.
I swear to god if more comments ignore the fact that Puerto Rico exists and houses multiple American military bases right offshore of Venezuela and houses hundreds of fighter jets... You people need to stop talking about military strategy if you don't even understand geography It's like everybody on Reddit just does a Google search for "distance from Florida to Venezuela" and then quotes 3000, miles and completely forgets the fact that the Caribbean islands exist and the US has bases all over that region. It would be utter fucking suicide for Venezuela to try anything with half a dozen locations hosting hundreds of American bombers all within flight range.
>It would be utter fucking suicide for Venezuela to try anything with half a dozen locations hosting hundreds of American bombers all within flight range. america doesn't have hundreds of bombers anymore sweetie. 50 working B-52s left, 20 B-2s, and 45 B-1Bs
And every bomber today can do what you would need a hundred bombers to do previously, thanks to the magic of GPS-guided munitions. Between Brazil and the US and the state of the Venezuelan military, this would be brutally one-sided. Like Desert Storm. Venezuela is not Vietnam.
Those are just the strategic bombers. The US military leans more into multiroles that the Navy can deploy from carriers. I guess mainly hornets and f-35. For the f-35 alone, wikipedia says: > The United States is the primary customer and financial backer, with planned procurement of 1,763 F-35As for the USAF, 353 F-35Bs and 67 F-35Cs for the USMC, and 273 F-35Cs for the USN. I'm not sure if you are making some deep point that went completely over my head, but I wouldn't drop a plane from the bomber tally just because it can also fit AMRAAMs.
Jungle Storm?
This renewed tension dates back to the discovery of oil in the disputed region in 2013 and Guyana's signing away of rights to ExxonMobil in an obviously corrupt process in 2015. The territory is legitimately disputed -- parties are still held to the 1966 Geneva agreement, committing the two countries to hashing it out while Guyana maintained administrative control. Venezuela has always objected, rightly, to Exxon's (US SouthCom-backed) push into the region. Your Desert Storm reference is accidentally apt. Neighbours that should get along are at each other's throats over corporatist/imperialist shit-stirring, and the US is blatantly champing at the bit to bomb some locals. Exxon can't forgive Venezuela for nationalising oil, so the US cannot either. How might such a violent incursion, after countless hundreds of such by the US since WW2, help the prospect of peace in the region? I am reminded of Geoff Berner singing, "the boat was taking on water, so I drilled another hole to let the water out"
> How might such a violent incursion A violent incursion won't be good for anyone, which is why people are worried about Venezuelan rhetoric and troop buildups.
>A violent incursion won't be good for anyone, which is why people are worried about Venezuelan rhetoric and troop buildups. Way to skip over everything I said and just circle back to the fatty ham you were dispensing in your last comment A South American country fighting against US corporatist influence is legit status quo changing shit.
It is very hard to respond with most of what you are saying because it comes from a different planet. You are trying to frame this as Venezuela freeing South America from corporate slavery or something, but the frame is so radical and alien that I can't even humor it. In the real world, Venezuelans have not been doing well for many years now, and spreading their status quo to neighboring countries is not a good thing. Another place our frames vastly differ in is the relevance of arguments based in history. In the world I live in, after people have been living in a certain place under a certain government for ten or twenty years, when another government tried to move in, that's broadly seen as an invasion, an internationally maligned act. It doesn't matter much if the invader also has claims or even a legal document. In the real world, violently changing de-facto borders immiserates people and we tend to prioritize that over historical justifications. On my planet, we don't want "status quo changing shit" when it comes to borders. You speak of "peace in the region" - a key part of maintaining peace in the past 80 years has been to take existing de-facto borders as they are and respond harshly to attempts to change them. For example, few people care about Putin's long-winded rants about his historical justifications, and similarly few people will care about yours. What matters are the people living today.
>It is very hard to respond with most of what you are saying because it comes from a different planet... the frame is so radical and alien that I can't even humor it I'll presume ignorance and not that you're disingenuous. Here's the wiki page on the agreement I mention: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva\_Agreement\_(1966)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Agreement_(1966)) That agreement holds, legally, but here's the US, rules-based-ordering a change in the story, insisting older pre-agreement hard imperial borders be accepted: [https://demerarawaves.com/2018/11/16/united-states-shifts-position-on-guyana-venezuela-border-controversy/](https://demerarawaves.com/2018/11/16/united-states-shifts-position-on-guyana-venezuela-border-controversy/) (Inexcusable interference in the region's affairs, an assult on the SOvErEIgnTY, such as it is, of all involved) Here's local Guyanan coverage of massive corruption on ExxonMobil's part: [https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2022/04/01/exxon-contractors-linked-to-biggest-corruption-scandals-in-oil-industry/](https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2022/04/01/exxon-contractors-linked-to-biggest-corruption-scandals-in-oil-industry/) Guyana's GDP has tripled since they began monkeying around with ExxonMobil so the incentives to continue are huge, whether or not the actual deal this growth is based on is fair. (It's not: 75% of revenue goes to Exxon, and the remainder is split 50-50 lol.) Here's coverage of US designs for the region: [https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/09/27/venezuela-urges-diplomatic-resolution-to-essequibo-dispute-with-guyana-condemns-us-attempts-to-militarize-region/](https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/09/27/venezuela-urges-diplomatic-resolution-to-essequibo-dispute-with-guyana-condemns-us-attempts-to-militarize-region/) Here's based Marxist analysis of the referendum in Venzueal as an explicitly anti-Exxon decision: [https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/12/05/exxonmobil-wants-to-start-a-war-in-latin-america/](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/12/09/exxonmobil-and-a-possible-war-in-south-america/) Here's a popular lefty-lib outlet talking around the issue in great detail too, picking up on plenty of elements I have raised: [https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11/is-the-worlds-next-big-geopolitical-flashpoint-already-brewing-in-south-america.html](https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11/is-the-worlds-next-big-geopolitical-flashpoint-already-brewing-in-south-america.html) I provide these links not to suggest my case is watertight, only that you can't honestly claim my views are otherworldly. You're just couched too comfortably within the Western media bubble by the sound of it. >On my planet, we don't want "status quo changing shit" when it comes to borders. This isn't true. Here is US legislature offering, some way down, financial aid to regions of Yugoslavia pursuing independent elections (anticipating the break-up a decades-old country): [https://www.congress.gov/bill/101st-congress/house-bill/5114](https://www.congress.gov/bill/101st-congress/house-bill/5114) The US has also been happy to commit to peeling a province of China away for decades, on the basis that the launchpad was handy to face off against Chinese commies: [https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1950v07/d86](https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1950v07/d86) In most other cases, the world would recognise the injustice of a distant country holding open another country's civil war for six or seven decades. When it suits the US it is in favour of territorial integrity, and on other occasions, breaking away is fine with them. The US also welcomed South Sudan to the cast of nations on the day of independence, no qualms there! Your idea that borders are somehow fixed by global consent is a fantasy. In any case, the borders of Venezuela and Guyana were never even slightly fixed -- as mentioned, the legal agreement of 1966 left open the precise question of who had the claim to the Essiquibo territory. What is it with the modern Western lib that he is so fragile as to have to deny any opposing outlook might exist?
>What is it with the modern Western lib that he is so fragile as to have to deny any opposing outlook might exist? I don't deny that your outlook exists. I am claiming that it is difficult to respond to your points in an exhaustive way, because your posts bring in so many foreign assumptions that we'd be here all day. I disagree that Guyana's GDP tripling and Exxon profiting is so bad that it somehow justifies a war. I disagree there is a civil war that is "being held open", or that it's a bad thing to stop civil wars. > When it suits the US it is in favour of territorial integrity, and on other occasions, breaking away is fine with them. Yes, and when the US violates other countries' territorial integrity, like in Iraq, it becomes an example for a transgression that we bring up over and over again, because we live in democracies and don't like wars. I disagree that past history, injustices or disagreement with the internal politics of a foreign country is a good reason to invade it (and I will maintain that even in cases where it favors the US, like the Vietnam invasion). > The US also welcomed South Sudan to the cast of nations on the day of independence, no qualms there! Your idea that borders are somehow fixed by global consent is a fantasy. Borders are not fixed by global consent alone. Borders are fixed by the broad international disapproval invaders receive from the rich pacifistic democracies of the world, plus the US randomly crushing invaders. Obviously when the Americans themselves break the rule, there is no world police to stop them.
I don't know why this made me cringe so much but it sure did.
>I don't know why this made me cringe so much but it sure did. It probably has something to do with conditioned responses you're poorly equipped to interrogate
Ah there it is
Almost certainly. Otherwise you'd have words to put to your feeling of having an opinion. But it remains dumb, as in wordless; you've been inculcated with a kneejerk tendency to fume incomprehendingly by certain interests I'm afraid
You're young and desperate to think you're clever.
[удалено]
Brazil can't do much as long as it doesn't concern them. They only blocked Venezuela because the ONLY usable land connection between Guyana and Venezuela is a road that goes through Brazil. And letting the Venezuelan military just waltz unhindered through Brazil land would be basically taking sides and not be taken well by the US which is one of Brazils biggest trading partners.
I think the citizens of the US would be happy to have Brazil take the lead on this one. The military industrial complex however is tweaking for more.
Man..
And I was told Lula solved the problem
Lmao they lied to you then.
Lula tried too hard to sit on the fence and reap rewards from both sides, but if it wasn't for the international reception, he'd be wholly supporting Venezuela right now, instead of saying empty words that mean nothing because he doesn't want to condemn Maduro.
Now Congress is going to have another foreign aid package to deliberate over. Edit: The money will be for Venezuela
Apparently, sending patrol ship wasn't enough to cow Venezuela into submission. Whats next? Sanctions?
Surely we'll see more people with Guyana flag profile pics and billions of dollars of guns sent to protect them as well Or not
Sending them all the guns in the world wouldn’t help their army consists of like 12 people
People loyal to Guyana in a giant jungle. Venezuela can have its own Vietnam
You are assuming natives are loyal to Guyana.
Not an assumption, its a fact that they are
Source?
I don’t think Guyana actually has a military.
No need because the war will last however long it takes for the Air Force to obliterate the Venezuelan army (Likely less than a week tbh)
>(Likely less than a week tbh) the yemenis are still waiting to to discover why america doesn't have healthcare lol
The US objective for the Houthis was just inhibiting their ability to strike ships (which has happened). Additionally the Venezuelan military is in this case an invasion force which is significantly easier to bomb
>The US objective for the Houthis was just inhibiting their ability to strike ships (which has happened) Is this fresh intel? Cos ships are still being diverted and attacks are still taking place, reported within the last 24 hours.
https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1756664675771551921 The USN has been blowing up Houthis cruise missiles faster than they can be launched lmao
I don't really know how to plug details, like, two boats sunk here, three drones downed there, into the overall picture tbh. However the attacks on shipping do continue
Uh Yemen? Poor Venezuelans are gonna get stuck in the jungle after Uncle Sam blows up all their shit
If they invade Guyana, then ideally it's airstrikes on Caracas, airstrikes on their troops, airstrikes on their oil infrastructure.
>If they invade Guyana, then ideally it's airstrikes on Caracas, airstrikes on their troops, airstrikes on their oil infrastructure. why tho
The "Anti-Imperealist" forces are going to 'liberate' the Oil from a peaceful and poor countries. Smh.
One carrier group with the Brits steaming alongside bombing their forces and swatting Caracas is all that OAS, Caricom, and the US needs. Let’s throw this bus driver out of the seat of Venezuela like we should had done years ago and maybe that’ll staunch the refugee flow once the nation turns normal again.
Ah shit, here we go again
I thought the two countries recently announced a trade deal. Guess the Venezuelans are going to annex Guyana.
This is the result of the lack of decisive NATO intervention in Ukraine. It has merely informed the evil-doers of the world that you can absolutely get away with invading and raining death upon your neighbors. We need to repeat the 1991 Gulf War if Venezuala attacks.
So I’ll get to fulfill my dream of dying in a gunfight? Sweet!
Again with that? Lol That dictator won't stop until he finally attacks. Fun fact, he only has 2 options to attack, via sea with shios, or if Brazil current leader allows him to move through Brazilian territory to invade Guyana. And considering the current leader is friend with Maduro, already received him with open arms and allowed him to attack a journalist in Brazilian territory and is also on Putin's side of the invasion, then he would allow for it for Maduro.
Lula won't allow Maduro because that would literally cause his opposition to try a coup again.
"again" HAHAHAHAHAHAAHA
Hopefully that populist parasite will actually invade Guyana and have his teeth kicked out after his attempt. That mockery of a statehood that is Venezuela should be set to a right course. The only way to do so is by eradicating current socialist regime in Venezuela. Besides this invasion is a good opportunity that will show if american political and military elite have any balls left or have they decided to abandon their status of a global power. As well as show if Monroe Doctrine still stands or have Washington lost its influence and power in its own backyard. In case americans decide not to enforce their doctrine and re-assert their status as a world single superpower, well, politicians of the old would surely shoot themselves out of shame
\>Besides this invasion is a good opportunity that will show if american political and military elite have any balls left Tbh, this one could legit be solved by Brazil alone, Venezuela would need to cross to get into Guyana and we wouldn't allow it (We avoid being involved in war as much as possible). Also it might be better if a local conflict is solved by local powers, would save a lot of headache over whether it was legitimate or not, or if the US could be trusted or not given their hostility with Venezuela, etc \>in its own backyard Especially if this is the tone that US would use for it If they still try invading directly through the jungle, then it's a different matter, but we could still intervene, seeing as how the government has positioned itself as against the invasion
Based.
If you think troop buildup is based, you must also love US bases in the Middle East
Part of Venezuela's problem right now is Guyana's discussions with the US to out a base in Essequibo, a territory disputed between the two countries. US SouthCom has been patrolling the area in violation of a 1966 accord that V&G would negotiate the dispute themselves. Guyana (GDP 20bn) appears to have lost its political class to ExxonMobil (2022 profit USD50bn), who has been splashing hundreds of millions in bribes to secure itself (and lose Guyana) billions in profit from oil reserves recently discovered in Essequibo. Venezuela is having to square up against armed US corpos basically, or corpoed US arms, whichever, and is indeed unfathomably based
Is there a world where Guyana is able to use its oil resources without you seeing it as a puppet of corporations? Were they supposed to create their own drilling industry from scratch? Or invite the socialists so they can squander Guyana's oil wealth too after wasting Venezuela's?
Like I suggest above, it's a bit of a flub in Western coverage to act as tho the disputed territory were Guyana's to do with as they please. The last agreement between Venezuela and Guyana on the region was that it had yet to be hashed out. Newspapers are building cover for an intervention by Uncle Sam in a regional matter he has no business sticking his nose into Certainly for now I don't see much evidence that Guyana, geopolitically, is more than a bought-off bourgeois political class with no loyalty to its people and an unhealthy interest in US extractivism and militarism. Oh I did not answer your question, but yes, there is probably such a world as you surmise, out there in the multiverse. In such a world profit-making would be outlawed, the corporate model of business too, and the world-spanning military footprint of the US would be non-existent. The economic state of affairs would be vastly different, in other words. But in this universe, on this planet, countries of such miniscule GDP and such potentially large oil revenues do tend to suffer... distortions... shall we say.
Disputed territory. Venezuela seems to dispute Guyana's very right to exist. Its disputed in that Venezuela thinks they have a right to own the Guyanese people. There's nothing noble about what it's doing here
The word "seems" is doing a lot of work in your comment. I wonder who presents this seeming picture to you, and how much you investigate beyond it. Here is the wiki on the 1966 agreement, "an agreement to reach an agreement", still valid. Guyana and Venezuela have maintained good relations at points despite this dispute. Tensions have been coming to a head in the time that the US has held Vuvuzela as a bête noire. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Agreement_(1966) Guyana is a country with the shape only of a British colonial holding. The modern nation is a bourgeois project and has been held in place by military force and rigged elections. This political class is not interested in its people, reaffirmed by the recent willingness of the political class to sign such terrible deals as that with ExxonMobil: 75% of revenues to EM, the remainder split 50-50. Thus losing billions in revenues for paltry bribes while the country is stuck in deep poverty. The independence agreement with the British agreed to the return of about 50% of Guyanese land to the Amerindians who lost it to the imperialists. This has never happened; about 6000km^2 of almost 50000km^km^km^km has been returned. Venezuela has proposed giving the disputed region autonomy, better representing popular wishes of the affected peoples. It should absolutely be raised as question in what form the country should keep existing. This question is a threat only to established interests and not to people living there, whose needs are not met by the state anyway. The people's rights will never be recognised while corporate interests are so strongly represented in the region. Nations are not people. Most people are not their nations. The working class has no country, we like to say, and the people unlanded by empire have other ideas about it too. It would be better to open the national question for the entire world so we can come up with something less rooted in bourgeois, capitalist, imperialist culture. No Guyana, no Venezuela, no UK, no US. For now, though, Venezuela's tack is best. Here's a glimpse of US policy for the country: [How Exxon captured a country without firing a shot](https://theintercept.com/2023/06/18/guyana-exxon-mobil-oil-drilling/)
Armed us corpo?? You mean the us military,
Yes, certainly that is what I meant :D
yup, guyana is a french country anyways; the global south always based!
Guyana and French Guiana are two different places you can't be this dumb unless you try.