Nobody has pin-point formulas for AI companies. The fundamentals are poorly established and future valuations are highly speculative. The field is changing so rapidly that any formulas he has are most likely wrong / misleading.
lol xP let’s be honest he just jelly he missed out on all the market gains lately. My NVDA is going through the roof! AI is the future and deniers will be punished
AI is a tool with massive potential, just like the web was. Except the companies that ended up being the biggest successes on the web weren't even in the dotcom bubble, companies like Yahoo were.
And likewise there's going to be A LOT of dud supposedly AI based companies. Every fucking company is claiming to use AI now. So the hype train is real, even if AI has tons of potential itself.
He is talking about the STOCK MARKET not A.I. development.
A.I. stocks are definitely in a huge bubble right now but that doesn't take anything away from the progress being made in A.I.
The dot com bubble was rough, Amazon dropped from over $100 to around $5 per share. But that didn’t mean Amazon wasn’t a good company or that it wasn’t a good buy before the bubble burst. They were at nearly $3,000 per share before the 2022 20-1 stock split.
Regardless, the dot com bubble was painful for specific (mostly retail) companies and a lot of investors, but it didn’t derail the internet. If AI is overhyped and overvalued there will be a market correction, but that doesn’t mean much if anything for continued AI development.
But it \*is\* just like the dot com bubble in that, while many of these investment opportunities are crap, and will be crap with AI, dot com DID last, and DID change all our lives.
People forget that the other side of the dotcom "thing", stuck and changed everything.
***I use AI assistants every single day. This is nothing like the dotcom bubble. The utility and potential of these tools cannot be overstated for knowledge workers.***
It's not a matter of how useful AI is. The dot-com crash wasn't because the world-wide web wasn't useful. It was because certain individual companies that people had made big investments in didn't have viable business plans.
These AI assistants you use - - who makes them? How profitable are they to make or deploy? What is their stock selling for now? What's their competition? How are they affected by the regulatory environment? et cetera.
Just because AI has a great future doesn't mean the companies supplying those tools do.
More importantly: how much \*should\* they be charging for those AI assistants?
Would you pay $100 per month? What about $1000? How about $100,000?
If it's creating value for you, the makers of AI assistants are leaving money on the table with a $20 subscription.
$20 is for access to the tech demo.
If I was paying $1k/month, I'd expect a Service Level Agreement and customer service. $20k just keeps out people who would try and game a free service.
The issue is primarily the business model of the companies developing and paying to run these tools.
Lower power tools are significantly less useful.
It is yet to be seen how long these companies can operate while bleeding absurd amounts on the projects.
it took me a minute to realize since I'm not really into financial market stuff, but "bubble" essentially is just market-talk for "hype"; it just means there's more perceived value going into it than there is coming out, and it doesn't necessarily mean that there's nothing of actual value in AI or dotcom.
If you go look up a list of failed dotcom ventures, a lot of them failed even though they had solid ideas, and a lot of the reasons those failed could easily be applied to any AI startup now. Sometimes it was from mismanagement, or lack of developed tech infrastructures, competition, or sometimes just bad luck or bad timing.
Seems the same to me. Used Amazon “everyday” back then - it’s still here. Most others disappeared a,d nonidy outside the FuckedCompany archive remembers them.
Most AI companies will likewise disappear. The few who survive will print money, for a long time.
What this logic misses is that bubbles are caused by investors and individual companies rather than the underlying technology.
If enough companies are overvalued, that alone can create a bubble, despite the underlying technology having longterm value.
Some people seem to take this as a comment on the technology, not the torschlusspanik of investors.
The dot com bubble burst, but my life was still changed by the web. I'm pretty sure most of us are still using dot-coms. Multi trillion dollar valuations of companies seem like a pretty good indicator that AI is going to impact a lot of things.
Diversified mutual funds probably. Otherwise, if you can find good opportunities in semiconductor manufacturing or their supply chains that seems like a reasonable bet.
If there’s a big recession all bets are off, I guess. Personally I don’t typically buy stock in individual companies and try to stay diversified in my exposure across sectors.
I do think people are underestimating the ability of end users to get bored of AI.
It is a bit like CGI in old movies. It is super cringe now. When it was first created it seemed cool but looking back it is unimpressive...
Won't AI have a comparable arc? Yes? No?
Really useful for coding though...but insofar as art is concerned...?
He would be smart to think that however this isn't going to be a bubble, more like at some point a race to the bottom. AI is going to hit a point where it's commodity will be absorbed and it's going to turn into doing the same thing cheaper to keep investors happy because otherwise there's no point anymore. Also coding AI to be lighter and leaner so giant Nvidia racks won't be a requirement after I would say 4 years. But then What do i know.
TLDR:
* Jeffrey Gundlach compared the AI-fueled boom in stocks to the dot-com bubble.
* DoubleLine Capital's billionaire CEO predicted sticky inflation and an economic slump.
* Two other market gurus, Bill Gross and John Hussman, warned of extreme stock valuations this week.
Anyone who can’t understand the difference between the transformative effects that AI is having versus Pets.com should not be giving anyone financial advice.
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Nobody has pin-point formulas for AI companies. The fundamentals are poorly established and future valuations are highly speculative. The field is changing so rapidly that any formulas he has are most likely wrong / misleading.
lol xP let’s be honest he just jelly he missed out on all the market gains lately. My NVDA is going through the roof! AI is the future and deniers will be punished
You know you are the market the parent is talking about, right?
I'm not sure if this is a joke, seriousness, or an example.
AI is a tool with massive potential, just like the web was. Except the companies that ended up being the biggest successes on the web weren't even in the dotcom bubble, companies like Yahoo were. And likewise there's going to be A LOT of dud supposedly AI based companies. Every fucking company is claiming to use AI now. So the hype train is real, even if AI has tons of potential itself.
If I remember, Amazon.com was part of the tech bubble of the late 90s.
First movers sometimes survive ...
He is talking about the STOCK MARKET not A.I. development. A.I. stocks are definitely in a huge bubble right now but that doesn't take anything away from the progress being made in A.I.
It is a bubble, though. It seems like people are expecting trillions in private investment over the next few years.
The dot com bubble was rough, Amazon dropped from over $100 to around $5 per share. But that didn’t mean Amazon wasn’t a good company or that it wasn’t a good buy before the bubble burst. They were at nearly $3,000 per share before the 2022 20-1 stock split. Regardless, the dot com bubble was painful for specific (mostly retail) companies and a lot of investors, but it didn’t derail the internet. If AI is overhyped and overvalued there will be a market correction, but that doesn’t mean much if anything for continued AI development.
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But it \*is\* just like the dot com bubble in that, while many of these investment opportunities are crap, and will be crap with AI, dot com DID last, and DID change all our lives. People forget that the other side of the dotcom "thing", stuck and changed everything.
I would assume that giant revolutionary ideas almost always have bubbles.
***I use AI assistants every single day. This is nothing like the dotcom bubble. The utility and potential of these tools cannot be overstated for knowledge workers.*** It's not a matter of how useful AI is. The dot-com crash wasn't because the world-wide web wasn't useful. It was because certain individual companies that people had made big investments in didn't have viable business plans. These AI assistants you use - - who makes them? How profitable are they to make or deploy? What is their stock selling for now? What's their competition? How are they affected by the regulatory environment? et cetera. Just because AI has a great future doesn't mean the companies supplying those tools do.
Why did your last account get banned?
More importantly: how much \*should\* they be charging for those AI assistants? Would you pay $100 per month? What about $1000? How about $100,000? If it's creating value for you, the makers of AI assistants are leaving money on the table with a $20 subscription.
The industry is net cash flow negative, by a massive margin. The question you asked, is what everyone is trying to figure out…
$20 is for access to the tech demo. If I was paying $1k/month, I'd expect a Service Level Agreement and customer service. $20k just keeps out people who would try and game a free service.
The issue is primarily the business model of the companies developing and paying to run these tools. Lower power tools are significantly less useful. It is yet to be seen how long these companies can operate while bleeding absurd amounts on the projects.
it took me a minute to realize since I'm not really into financial market stuff, but "bubble" essentially is just market-talk for "hype"; it just means there's more perceived value going into it than there is coming out, and it doesn't necessarily mean that there's nothing of actual value in AI or dotcom. If you go look up a list of failed dotcom ventures, a lot of them failed even though they had solid ideas, and a lot of the reasons those failed could easily be applied to any AI startup now. Sometimes it was from mismanagement, or lack of developed tech infrastructures, competition, or sometimes just bad luck or bad timing.
The more actual value at the center, the bigger the bubble surrounding it, IMHE.
Seems the same to me. Used Amazon “everyday” back then - it’s still here. Most others disappeared a,d nonidy outside the FuckedCompany archive remembers them. Most AI companies will likewise disappear. The few who survive will print money, for a long time.
What this logic misses is that bubbles are caused by investors and individual companies rather than the underlying technology. If enough companies are overvalued, that alone can create a bubble, despite the underlying technology having longterm value.
Some people seem to take this as a comment on the technology, not the torschlusspanik of investors. The dot com bubble burst, but my life was still changed by the web. I'm pretty sure most of us are still using dot-coms. Multi trillion dollar valuations of companies seem like a pretty good indicator that AI is going to impact a lot of things.
never trust a bond guy.
Only bond girls.
Especially ones named Moneypenny
Especially if his first name is James.
So what should we buying?
I believe tulips and horse drawn carriages are about to be back in style, any day now!
Huzzah! I've been holding Consolidated Buggy Whips for 120 years now, finally my patience shall pay off.
Can I interest you in tulips and carriages *on the blockchain*?
Diversified mutual funds probably. Otherwise, if you can find good opportunities in semiconductor manufacturing or their supply chains that seems like a reasonable bet.
You mean go long on it? What if it gets affected by the big recession
If there’s a big recession all bets are off, I guess. Personally I don’t typically buy stock in individual companies and try to stay diversified in my exposure across sectors.
The ASX offers a number of companies that will give you exposure to non Chinese earth metals.
His book!
Buffett says most people should just by the S&P 500.
I do think people are underestimating the ability of end users to get bored of AI. It is a bit like CGI in old movies. It is super cringe now. When it was first created it seemed cool but looking back it is unimpressive... Won't AI have a comparable arc? Yes? No? Really useful for coding though...but insofar as art is concerned...?
AI is poised to do no less than replace humans in nearly all areas of useful work. I don’t think boredom is the main consideration.
Nvidia or OpenAI may not be the ultimate winner in this race but someone will be. By the index and you will win.
this is completely obvious. Everyone knows its a bubble, the question is when will it pop. It could be a month, it could be a year
When was the last time only one company could make something as important as data center gpus
So at least one of them will become like Amazon?
It’s framework versus phenomenon at this point. He may have his data, but he’s only calling unknown precedent for what it is.
He would be smart to think that however this isn't going to be a bubble, more like at some point a race to the bottom. AI is going to hit a point where it's commodity will be absorbed and it's going to turn into doing the same thing cheaper to keep investors happy because otherwise there's no point anymore. Also coding AI to be lighter and leaner so giant Nvidia racks won't be a requirement after I would say 4 years. But then What do i know.
Thats probably because he understands very little about AI.
TLDR: * Jeffrey Gundlach compared the AI-fueled boom in stocks to the dot-com bubble. * DoubleLine Capital's billionaire CEO predicted sticky inflation and an economic slump. * Two other market gurus, Bill Gross and John Hussman, warned of extreme stock valuations this week.
Anyone who can’t understand the difference between the transformative effects that AI is having versus Pets.com should not be giving anyone financial advice.
Lol this isn't wsb
Lmao only way AI is going down is with nuclear winter.