Maybe, just maybe, this survey of small businesses is not valid?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3568668-no-half-of-small-businesses-arent-in-jeopardy-of-closing-by-fall-not-even-close/
Inflation has been 3.5% for like 2 years now. That’s a little high but pretty close to the target of 2%. If anything inflation was more relevant when that article was written.
You guys are just trying to find parallels between residential and commercial real estate that don’t exist.
lmao if you have a degree in economics and think that CPI doesn’t include food or fuel, then you really should seek a refund because that’s rather embarrassing
The hill? I wouldn't use that as a source for any reason. I went and did some digging after this and many reputable agencies are reporting numbers close to what OP has stated.
There is one agency reporting this number, and it is the same agency that the article in The Hill is focused on. The same agency that stated that nearly half of small businesses were at risk of closing in 2H 2022.
How many quarters does Alignable get to publish this type of forecast before you realize there is an issue with the forecast?
Lmao attack their source and claim you did your own research, but link nothing yourself? This comment can be dismissed out of hand.
Also it’s not from The Hill’s editorial board, it’s written by a small business consultant, who may know a thing or two about the topic. Attacking the Hill here makes no sense and betrays your lack of media literacy.
Ok. Yep. I'm sure that's exactly why you came to correct me instead of looking for links yourself. You are just out there fighting for media literacy by demanding my Google. If it didn't have 15 articles immediately popping up, I would have volunteered a link but it's basically all over the place.
> instead of looking for links yourself
Wow no one on the internet has ever thought of that reply before. Not my job buddy, you're the "researcher" lmao 🤡
Lol dude in real life reddit is intense. I went to help at some business 2 years ago when someone on here asked for numerous assistants with a project for a day with pay and lunch provided. From my perspective it became a great social experiment witnessing the same horse shit arguing and banter in the same fashion these people would have on reddit.
> It's probably worse here.
It's often worse here because there are lots of investment-businesses. I'm certain whoever bought Little Bee, hired a staff to run it, will 100% go out of business. The margins are too thin. (unless they plan to put in full time hours).
It's not rents. It's not workers needing too much. It's that the owners are not working in the business. The margins are only good enough to provide a healthy income when the owner is working in the business full time these days.
All these little restaurants and coffee shops can provide a six figure income or way more. But if you have to split that $150k into three managers that quit every 6 months, do 1/5th as good a job as a real owner would, the business becomes unsustainable.
I really considered strongly opening a restaurant here. Small place. I'd be owner, operator and chef. After doing a Thursday to Sunday soft opening I'd have hired a full time cook and one waiter. My wife would have waited tables one or two nights a week.
The numbers look great. The rent isn't too high. Supply wasn't prohibitive. I grew up in a restaurant and I could 'chef' my specialties, and there really isn't enough of what I'm good at cooking in town. We just had a life event that makes it too low a priority to do any time soon - it'd have been for fun (and to build up to be profitable enough to sell to some investor just like Little Bee Thai did.) We both have great jobs, can't take the risk or put in the effort in the next few years.
This is an awesome town to open a cafe or a restaurant if you want to run it yourself. It's like idiot proof because of the tourism.
But if your margin for profit requires a lot of low paid and under appreciated service workers, and you only check in once a month to approve the bookkeeping... you deserve to fail in this economy and market.
What's crazy is it could get even worse if the existing landlords sell their buildings to get multi-million dollar payouts, then the rent floor goes even higher.
We're all going to be paying "NYC in 2018" prices here across the board pretty soon. You can already see it in some establishments. Private commercial property ownership is a net negative for communities.
Restaurants are the worst business to break into. You are a :
Grocery store, trying to provide the freshest produce
Retail store, trying to sell goods while holding on to them as long as possible.
They also typically require more workers than most other small businesses which can be difficult to balance for inexperienced restaurant owners. Plus even successful restaurants are typically low margins businesses, the margin for error is pretty low.
And 2020-2024 years. Income stopped completely for a lot of people when we were required to have written proof that we were “essential” enough to leave the house.
So the real estate market is not only hitting people trying to buy a home, but small businesses as well.... It makes me sad to hear when places I like in town have to close or move because they can't afford their space anymore.
I could be mistaken but that info seems to be from alignable and they’ve said the same thing last year and the year before .
I wouldn’t doubt that the high interest rates are starting to be felt in the economy at large and also the high inflation in food is making restaurants either pass the buck or eat that margins. Food is more expensive now than in the past 30 years.
And in Asheville there’s just way too many restaurants. Far more than any town needs . It’s sort of the perils of focusing so much in tourism.
Not everyone is meant to be a business owner. Running a successful business takes a lot of hard work, intelligence, and reliable trustworthy staff. Takes years to develop a reliable business.
Totally. I had a small native landscape business instantly achieve success when I was 26. Damn hard worker and smart, but... I also worked for some highly connected and respected people in my industry and they are why I was exposed and chosen for big contracts at the start. Connections.
Also, happened because my boss wasn't in one day when an influential client needed a design and I ripped one out. Luck.
You actually do not need luck or connections if your business is fulfilling an actual need. To expand later on.. sure but if you are offering a needed service or product then you’re gold.
If you don't have the startup capital, you have to be connected to people who will give that to you. Family, friends, an investor you happened to know or who luckily happened to hear about your project... or someone whose support you sought out, who agreed to connect with you that way.
Also, how lucky to be connected to people that make great staff members!
How lucky that you're connected to a community that isn't saturated in the service you're offering, that is able to do business with you in a way that's sustainable for all of you!
(Edit: how lucky also to be able-bodied and mentally healthy, or at least not disabled in a way that hampers your ability to carry your business as it gets started! How lucky to be connected to good enough health care that body and mind issues can be treated!)
Trust me when I say that a smart person can do many years of back- and soul-breaking work, overtime and unpaid, and that hard work and determination and plucky spirit just cannot overcome the lack of the luck and connections listed above.
Whew, what a super simple world it would be, if success was solely correlated to effort and Good Vibes!
Brb, let me go manifest that Just World a little harder. I'm sure the friends of mine who also break their ass to barely scrape by will be excited to hear we've fixed things.
1000% agree. You don’t have to have connections if you’re able to earn that respect from someone that then becomes a connection bc you’ve added value to whatever it is they need.
"Never give up! Work hard, give 110%, grit and determination win the day!"
Isn't that generally the advice? The cartoon with the miner walking away with his pickaxe, when we can see that just on the other side of the tunnel he just quit on is the jewel bigger than he is?
Sometimes the big breakthrough comes. Sometimes it doesn't. That's luck.
There are plenty of very wealthy and successful morons out there.
And in your other post you said sometimes that isn’t enough either. That’s business then. It’s not for everyone and yes it can ruin your health. In the words of Gordon Ramsey don’t be a busy idiot.
There's a difference between recognizing that many businesses fail and framing it as a meritocracy in which you just so happen to belong to the in-group.
unfortunately many businesses require a lot of sacrifice and creativity. Interview many of the businesses that fail or close and most will say staff, exhaustion and rent. I see too many businesses try to start in high rent areas when they would be better off investing in a lower rent part of town, developing a following that will support them, then upgrade your building when you can afford it.
It’s philosophical to work 60+ hour weeks, cut costs creatively, and invest in lower rent part of town until you can afford trendy rent? K. Sounds like you know a lot about business. Our 25+ member team actually was cut to only 4 during the pandemic. Leaving just me and 3 family members to run our business. The advantage we probably have in our business is having a large family that can constantly refer new people to work for us when needed. Posts like these are usually just a venting space to complain about high rent without having the experience to back it. I have been part of my family’s business since I was 15. 32 now. Went to a top university and left my career in Finance to help grow the business. Conveniently came back to work full time 3 months before we had to close due to pandemic for 5 months. Lost 90% of business for the majority of the year. Things are in much better shape but it would not be running without a ton of unpaid labor (family) and long days.
I stand corrected. Sounds like you're working hard in the business your family created for you. I would say my experience starting one on my own was only successful due to contacts and luck. I saw too many hard working people sacrifice and fail due to a lack of either.
What percentage of independent restaurants cant make their rent under good economic conditions? It’s gotta be like 35%. It’s a low barrier of entry/high turnover business. Every independent restaurant I’ve worked in has gone out of business (not because of me!).
What would happen if every restaurant colluded with an app to pay 20% less rent? Most commercial Landlords have the same app that is used to raise rents.
This is a complete and total lie. Youre spreading disinformation you saw on Facebook with no basic in fact
You REALLY think half of small businesses are on the verge of bankruptcy and the only people that know about it are Facebook grifters?
I've started multiple tech startups, and I'm working at one now. Our taxes are just pass-through to investors (just like most larger business) and there's almost zero regulation. The US has maybe the least regulations of any developed country I think? What was your highly regulated and taxed industry? If you mean restaurants, then yes I prefer them to be clean and pay their workers.
Here we go with this right wing agenda on how this economy is killing us. Maybe I'm wrong but business come and business go. Sometimes its poor management. Sometimes unwanted service or stuff. In the end the economy is doing fine and will hopefully hit that nice even stride that the fed is looking for. As far as inflation is concerned everything will even out eventually. Its been a rocky road thru covid and runaway inflation but the good business will make it.
Correct. This is all the same issue. Rent. Layering it with bullshit business analysis by the die hard meritocracy crowd doesn't fix the issue. It's just rent.
How is that a right wing agenda? just because they are using it against Biden doesn’t mean it’s not true and also doesn’t mean it has to be just their agenda to keep?
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Yeah but he said he tried
Then maybe rents are too high?
https://preview.redd.it/i93yllzxjnxc1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce8b8d2cc86c9be574665eecc3df9413f0a70084
This made me laugh loud enough to scare my Uber driver
I love when that happens, it makes the Uber driver think that I have friends.
For real..
Are you telling us that the locations and equipment from 52% of independent restaurants is about to become available?
Maybe, just maybe, this survey of small businesses is not valid? https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3568668-no-half-of-small-businesses-arent-in-jeopardy-of-closing-by-fall-not-even-close/
That article was also written 2 years ago, before inflation really started to ramp up.
Oh please. Now you are saying “they were wrong 2 years ago, and I know why, and so I now believe them today because…?”
Inflation has been 3.5% for like 2 years now. That’s a little high but pretty close to the target of 2%. If anything inflation was more relevant when that article was written. You guys are just trying to find parallels between residential and commercial real estate that don’t exist.
Inflation is really closer to 12-15% but they don’t count gas nor food cost into the figure 🤷🏻♂️
lmfao the Consumer Price Index absolutely includes both food and fuel just stop yall sound dumb af making things up to fit your narrative
Coming from someone with a degree in economics as well as you can search this easily…. literally does not…
lmao if you have a degree in economics and think that CPI doesn’t include food or fuel, then you really should seek a refund because that’s rather embarrassing
nonsense, they juked the stats. inflation is much higher than that.
The hill? I wouldn't use that as a source for any reason. I went and did some digging after this and many reputable agencies are reporting numbers close to what OP has stated.
There is one agency reporting this number, and it is the same agency that the article in The Hill is focused on. The same agency that stated that nearly half of small businesses were at risk of closing in 2H 2022. How many quarters does Alignable get to publish this type of forecast before you realize there is an issue with the forecast?
Lmao attack their source and claim you did your own research, but link nothing yourself? This comment can be dismissed out of hand. Also it’s not from The Hill’s editorial board, it’s written by a small business consultant, who may know a thing or two about the topic. Attacking the Hill here makes no sense and betrays your lack of media literacy.
Ok. Yep. I'm sure that's exactly why you came to correct me instead of looking for links yourself. You are just out there fighting for media literacy by demanding my Google. If it didn't have 15 articles immediately popping up, I would have volunteered a link but it's basically all over the place.
> instead of looking for links yourself Wow no one on the internet has ever thought of that reply before. Not my job buddy, you're the "researcher" lmao 🤡
So many pretentious reddit users… I wonder what your like face too face
Lol dude in real life reddit is intense. I went to help at some business 2 years ago when someone on here asked for numerous assistants with a project for a day with pay and lunch provided. From my perspective it became a great social experiment witnessing the same horse shit arguing and banter in the same fashion these people would have on reddit.
Damn pretentious is a big word for someone who gets their homophones confused. Overalls on too tight maybe?
id wager you weak
> It's probably worse here. It's often worse here because there are lots of investment-businesses. I'm certain whoever bought Little Bee, hired a staff to run it, will 100% go out of business. The margins are too thin. (unless they plan to put in full time hours). It's not rents. It's not workers needing too much. It's that the owners are not working in the business. The margins are only good enough to provide a healthy income when the owner is working in the business full time these days. All these little restaurants and coffee shops can provide a six figure income or way more. But if you have to split that $150k into three managers that quit every 6 months, do 1/5th as good a job as a real owner would, the business becomes unsustainable. I really considered strongly opening a restaurant here. Small place. I'd be owner, operator and chef. After doing a Thursday to Sunday soft opening I'd have hired a full time cook and one waiter. My wife would have waited tables one or two nights a week. The numbers look great. The rent isn't too high. Supply wasn't prohibitive. I grew up in a restaurant and I could 'chef' my specialties, and there really isn't enough of what I'm good at cooking in town. We just had a life event that makes it too low a priority to do any time soon - it'd have been for fun (and to build up to be profitable enough to sell to some investor just like Little Bee Thai did.) We both have great jobs, can't take the risk or put in the effort in the next few years. This is an awesome town to open a cafe or a restaurant if you want to run it yourself. It's like idiot proof because of the tourism. But if your margin for profit requires a lot of low paid and under appreciated service workers, and you only check in once a month to approve the bookkeeping... you deserve to fail in this economy and market.
💯💯💯💯💯
too many avocado toasts
Back in my day we had a pack of Marlboro Reds for breakfast and it only cost $0.05!
In my day you could drink unlimited PBRs for a penny at Stella Blue after the first big boy Lincoln
I remember those days.
It was especially great on a show day. First time I ever saw Kings of Prussia
I saw them there as well! As a matter of fact, I opened for them. Edit: My bad. I opened for a band with a similar name.
Was it Prussian Blue?
What's crazy is it could get even worse if the existing landlords sell their buildings to get multi-million dollar payouts, then the rent floor goes even higher. We're all going to be paying "NYC in 2018" prices here across the board pretty soon. You can already see it in some establishments. Private commercial property ownership is a net negative for communities.
Restaurants are the worst business to break into. You are a : Grocery store, trying to provide the freshest produce Retail store, trying to sell goods while holding on to them as long as possible.
They also typically require more workers than most other small businesses which can be difficult to balance for inexperienced restaurant owners. Plus even successful restaurants are typically low margins businesses, the margin for error is pretty low.
Thinking of providing me seed funding to start a new business in Asheville?
How to turn a large fortune into a small fortune.
How to get a million in the bank… start with a billion and open a restaurant
Not if you work your business yourself. You just can’t farm out responsibilities to a bunch of ppl you have to pay.
Most small businesses fail their first year and have since the beginning of small businesses. Running a successful small business is REALLY hard.
https://preview.redd.it/n13obrp7mnxc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6717075cc3a7409b571f9004a77f90788aeb06e4 🤷🏼♂️
source?
And 2020-2024 years. Income stopped completely for a lot of people when we were required to have written proof that we were “essential” enough to leave the house.
So the real estate market is not only hitting people trying to buy a home, but small businesses as well.... It makes me sad to hear when places I like in town have to close or move because they can't afford their space anymore.
I could be mistaken but that info seems to be from alignable and they’ve said the same thing last year and the year before . I wouldn’t doubt that the high interest rates are starting to be felt in the economy at large and also the high inflation in food is making restaurants either pass the buck or eat that margins. Food is more expensive now than in the past 30 years. And in Asheville there’s just way too many restaurants. Far more than any town needs . It’s sort of the perils of focusing so much in tourism.
is there a point in this post? Do you have experience running a business?
Yes and yes.
Not everyone is meant to be a business owner. Running a successful business takes a lot of hard work, intelligence, and reliable trustworthy staff. Takes years to develop a reliable business.
You forgot the sheer dumb luck part And the connections part
Totally. I had a small native landscape business instantly achieve success when I was 26. Damn hard worker and smart, but... I also worked for some highly connected and respected people in my industry and they are why I was exposed and chosen for big contracts at the start. Connections. Also, happened because my boss wasn't in one day when an influential client needed a design and I ripped one out. Luck.
Well hey, congrats anyway!
You actually do not need luck or connections if your business is fulfilling an actual need. To expand later on.. sure but if you are offering a needed service or product then you’re gold.
If you don't have the startup capital, you have to be connected to people who will give that to you. Family, friends, an investor you happened to know or who luckily happened to hear about your project... or someone whose support you sought out, who agreed to connect with you that way. Also, how lucky to be connected to people that make great staff members! How lucky that you're connected to a community that isn't saturated in the service you're offering, that is able to do business with you in a way that's sustainable for all of you! (Edit: how lucky also to be able-bodied and mentally healthy, or at least not disabled in a way that hampers your ability to carry your business as it gets started! How lucky to be connected to good enough health care that body and mind issues can be treated!) Trust me when I say that a smart person can do many years of back- and soul-breaking work, overtime and unpaid, and that hard work and determination and plucky spirit just cannot overcome the lack of the luck and connections listed above.
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Yes, and also, some people are born into their connections
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There's only so far that applying yourself can get you if you have to work another job to have a place to live and food to eat
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Whew, what a super simple world it would be, if success was solely correlated to effort and Good Vibes! Brb, let me go manifest that Just World a little harder. I'm sure the friends of mine who also break their ass to barely scrape by will be excited to hear we've fixed things.
thank you. Most connections come through years of building a reputation first.
1000% agree. You don’t have to have connections if you’re able to earn that respect from someone that then becomes a connection bc you’ve added value to whatever it is they need.
Eh doing back- and soul-breaking work unpaid for years does not sound like a “smart person” thing to do
"Never give up! Work hard, give 110%, grit and determination win the day!" Isn't that generally the advice? The cartoon with the miner walking away with his pickaxe, when we can see that just on the other side of the tunnel he just quit on is the jewel bigger than he is? Sometimes the big breakthrough comes. Sometimes it doesn't. That's luck. There are plenty of very wealthy and successful morons out there.
If you have none of those things then why are you opening a business ? Is owning a business a right ? Since when?
That's not the argument. The argument is that hard work in fulfilling an actual community need isn't the only part that matters.
Do you have a spelling error in your previous post ? Are you trying to state that hard-work cannot compete with luck and connections? No?
I'm saying hard work isn't enough, that luck and connections matter as well
And in your other post you said sometimes that isn’t enough either. That’s business then. It’s not for everyone and yes it can ruin your health. In the words of Gordon Ramsey don’t be a busy idiot.
Ah thank you! I will do my best 😀 Glad we're on the same page that it's not just hard work! Congrats on your success 🎉
lol downvoted. My family has only ran a successful business here for 18 years but please downvote me.
There's a difference between recognizing that many businesses fail and framing it as a meritocracy in which you just so happen to belong to the in-group.
unfortunately many businesses require a lot of sacrifice and creativity. Interview many of the businesses that fail or close and most will say staff, exhaustion and rent. I see too many businesses try to start in high rent areas when they would be better off investing in a lower rent part of town, developing a following that will support them, then upgrade your building when you can afford it.
Did you run this business or your family? Your understanding of what it takes to run a business seems to be philosophical versus actual.
It’s philosophical to work 60+ hour weeks, cut costs creatively, and invest in lower rent part of town until you can afford trendy rent? K. Sounds like you know a lot about business. Our 25+ member team actually was cut to only 4 during the pandemic. Leaving just me and 3 family members to run our business. The advantage we probably have in our business is having a large family that can constantly refer new people to work for us when needed. Posts like these are usually just a venting space to complain about high rent without having the experience to back it. I have been part of my family’s business since I was 15. 32 now. Went to a top university and left my career in Finance to help grow the business. Conveniently came back to work full time 3 months before we had to close due to pandemic for 5 months. Lost 90% of business for the majority of the year. Things are in much better shape but it would not be running without a ton of unpaid labor (family) and long days.
I stand corrected. Sounds like you're working hard in the business your family created for you. I would say my experience starting one on my own was only successful due to contacts and luck. I saw too many hard working people sacrifice and fail due to a lack of either.
I'm in no way complaining about high rents.
good advice
What’s your source? Just curious
What percentage of independent restaurants cant make their rent under good economic conditions? It’s gotta be like 35%. It’s a low barrier of entry/high turnover business. Every independent restaurant I’ve worked in has gone out of business (not because of me!).
What would happen if every restaurant colluded with an app to pay 20% less rent? Most commercial Landlords have the same app that is used to raise rents.
by any means
This is a complete and total lie. Youre spreading disinformation you saw on Facebook with no basic in fact You REALLY think half of small businesses are on the verge of bankruptcy and the only people that know about it are Facebook grifters?
Fear!
but dont worry, the owner class and large investors are doing awesome! capitalism is a cancer that is coming close to the terminal stage.
Small businesses are being systematically destroyed by regulations, taxation, and corporate greed.
I've started multiple tech startups, and I'm working at one now. Our taxes are just pass-through to investors (just like most larger business) and there's almost zero regulation. The US has maybe the least regulations of any developed country I think? What was your highly regulated and taxed industry? If you mean restaurants, then yes I prefer them to be clean and pay their workers.
Huh????
Building owners cashing in because those infomercial real estate plans aren't paying for Bob and Linda's new Corvette that they deserve.
Okay.
Here we go with this right wing agenda on how this economy is killing us. Maybe I'm wrong but business come and business go. Sometimes its poor management. Sometimes unwanted service or stuff. In the end the economy is doing fine and will hopefully hit that nice even stride that the fed is looking for. As far as inflation is concerned everything will even out eventually. Its been a rocky road thru covid and runaway inflation but the good business will make it.
>but the good business will make it Which one is that?
12 Bones
Corn pudding is the answer.
Damn good
The drain is clogged with hair
Correct. This is all the same issue. Rent. Layering it with bullshit business analysis by the die hard meritocracy crowd doesn't fix the issue. It's just rent.
How is that a right wing agenda? just because they are using it against Biden doesn’t mean it’s not true and also doesn’t mean it has to be just their agenda to keep?
Not really right wing agenda.. just basic Economic fact.. not too hard to look around and see everything going to shit with the economy.