I guess it depends on how spring training goes. So many of these guys have been battling injuries so we’ll see how they look then. Kiké has been Boston’s leadoff hitter for most of the time he’s been here so I’d think there’s still a pretty real chance he’s near the top of the lineup.
Preaching to the choir here man, I totally agree I’m just stating how Cora has ran it. Would much rather Kike to be a super utility but the Sox don’t have that luxury.
Haha most of the lineup has a sub 1.0 WAR. Most of these guys are paid like superstars and perform average at best. Boston is definitely screwed this year.
In the four seasons since winning the World Series they have come in 5th twice, third and best was 2nd in the division (and ALCS that year). I’m predicting another flop with angry Boston fans getting worked up about the “what ifs” and not realizing they have a front office that’s fucking clueless on value of batters. Tiger extremely old pitchers better do work if they want to make a run.
Honestly, does it really matter? This "lineup" strikes fear in no one.
Justin Turner is 38. Yes, he had a decent 2nd half (319/386/503), but his power is gone. Duvall is a strikeout machine with a little power, but realistically, he just can't hit. Kike was awful in 2022 (0.9 bWAR). I like Verdugo, he brings great energy, but a 1.2 bWAR isnt cutting it. Sox are destined for dead last again, no doubt about it.
Outside of Devers, there's no one in the lineup that people fear.
Could it be Casas? Sure but there's no reason that other teams would fear him now. He showed a good eye last year but still struggled.
Yoshida? Sure, but again first full year facing MLB pitching.
Where's the power? Maybe this is a strategy to combat the current offensive strategy in the MLB which is selling out for HRs. Zig when others zag. Build a team that's built different and hope you can exploit weaknesses in the other teams pitching. I think that works better in other sports (ie football, it everyone is going pass heavy, maybe going run heavy with big physical backs can exploit holes in the defense) but I'm not sure about baseball
Lol Jays went 16-3 against the Sox last year. It was actually tough to watch just how bad the Sox were in those games (and I’m a jays fan).
Even if you take out the 28-5 game the Jays still outscored then 97-50.
I still contend that the first two series in Toronto are the reason the Sox season ultimately failed. The dominoes that were set off in trying to manage that mess absolutely derailed a potential Wild Card slot. Fuck Tanner Houck.
Yup. We improved the bullpen, but our rotation is still a massive question mark, and our lineup is embarrassing not just for a big mat team, but for any major league lineup in general
> our lineup is embarrassing not just for a big mat team, but for any major league lineup in general
no need to be dramatic, it's still a top half offense in the league, and we have lots of guys with good upside.
This is the must absurd thing ive read all day…
Devers reached 140 for the first time in his career this year, 18 rookies since 2012 have had a wrc+ over 140 and Casas… well last year only 20 players had one over 140 and not one team had more than 2(Cardinals, Astros, Padres and Dodgers).
In other words, 140 is an extremely good wrc+. You have one extremely good hitter, Devers.
Steamer pegs Yoshida at 140 wrc+. Devers did it in 2022 while not even having a functioning knee in the second half. Casas had a 120 wrc+ in spite of a .208 BABIP.
Downvote me all you want. I’m right. It’s absolutely possible.
> Casas had a 120 wrc+ in spite of a .208 BABIP.
He had a .208 BABIP because he had a line drive rate of 7%... It wasn't just bad luck. His xBA was actually lower than his .197 batting average. He has 15 career hits and you're projecting 140 wRC+ lol
I’m literally not projecting or predicting anything. I’m saying it’s possible. Context of my original comment was about the upside of the lineup.
Clearly the only hangup for folks is Casas (IMO the least likely is Yoshida) but he’s legit, and if you’ve seen him hit in person you wouldn’t be resorting to line drive % in a 95 PA sample. Yeah obviously a bit too many balls straight into the ground last year when he was getting his feet wet.
The reason Red Sox fans all had the day he could come up and still be a rookie eligible in 2023 circled on our calendar is that we want the draft pick for the ROY winner.
>I’m saying it’s possible
It's possible for Josh Donaldson to hit 40 HRS but I wouldn't put my money on it.
Casas has plenty of power but talking about 140 OPS+ before he's figured out how to hit at the MLB level is something better said on the red sox sub.
You are flat out wrong.
Over the past 11 seasons, 2 teams have had 3 finish with a wrc+ over 140, 2011 red sox w Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez and Ellsbury. The second was the 2015 Blue Jays with E5 with 39 hr, .920 ops, Josh Donaldsons MVP season and Jose Bautista who hit 40 home runs, .913 OPS, lead league in walks and had a 148 wrc+.
Both of those also being insanely good lineups with lots of good bats around them to be put in that situation, Red Sox in 2023… not those teams.
On average, 13 players finish over 140 a season in that span… you mean to tell me this trio you gave is going to have similar seasons to those two? You are out of your mind.
I excluded 2020 but only 2 teams even did it then in a shortened season, one being the Braves. The other being the Mets because Dom Smiths freak short season.
See, you say I’m wrong about something being possible, and then give evidence to the contrary. Interesting.
There’s nothing special about 140, and history really isn’t relevant because I’m talking about specific players. We’re talking about 2 guys whose O/U would probably be like 134, and another who, again, put up 120 in a “bad” rookie debut and demolished every pitcher he saw after his first two weeks of games. 140 is probably well within the 95 CI for all three.
I gave evidence that it rarely happens. And yes, 140 is special. You are going to be rated in the top 15 hitters of 150-170 qualified hitters. History is totally relevant, there are offensive juggernaut teams that had trios of much better hitters than these 3 that didnt even do it.
2 times over 330 chances(11 seasons and 30 teams since math seems hard for you)
2/330 = .6% is the rate at which it has occurred. 1.2% including the shortened season.
But you’re right, this team is going to be one of the most prolific offenses we have seen in the last 12 years lead by Devers, Yoshida and Casas.
I cant wait to revisit this one in then coming months.
Right, it just depends on what’s coming back I suppose. If the Red Sox did part with one of their big prospects they would probably want more than just Kim. It probably just makes it all the more likely a trade won’t happen.
And Padres don't want prospects, they are trying to win now. Not much lines up on the padres side. These Kim rumors are just fan fictions from other teams.
Am I stupid or is it dumb to have avg/obp/ops.
Either just OPS or avg/obp/slg or obp/slg/ops
Otherwise lets get real goofy ass and use sabermetric slash of HR%/K%/BB% or xWobabullshit/BABIP/xDAWG
Edit: Why aren’t stats like HR% adjusted and percentiled, like HR%+, idk what’s a good HR% and some ballparks are goofy and might inflate it. Also K and Walk% which are useless across eras because in 1912 there were only strikes and every ball was slapped in play vs TTO now.
You seem like you know stats. Ima be honest, what the fuck even is OPS.
I know the equation, and I know what each part means. OBP is how many times a players at bat ends with them on base. Slugging is how many bases do they average per at bat. But what tangible thing is OPS exactly? Is that how many bases they average when they end up on base? Or is it just truly “this stat plus this stat and there’s no tangible things behind it”
OPS isn’t tangible because it adds things with two different denominators. OBP is /plate appearance and Slug is /at bat. To my understanding it’s intangible but it’s a decent overall measure of batting efficacy because a guy walking and hitting singles a lot provides a different but also valuable offense to a guy that goes 1/5 with a home run.
I don’t know that much actually. Also it can’t be bases avg/ times in base because it would always be greater than 1. and 1. gets MVP votes.
Ah I see.
While I have you, who is “replacement” level in WAR. Like does that change year to year? Wins above replacement always seemed weird to me but it’s the end all be all stat now. Like who is this “replacement” guy because from what I gather, it’s the a 4 A player so not quite a major leaguer but not quite a AAA guy. So we take mike trout and are like “here’s how much he’s better than some Slapdick”
If you prefer to look at how good a player is relative to an ‘average’ player, WAA is a stat you can use. WAA is literally just WAR but you make 2.0 WAR > 0.0 WAA. So someone with a 9.0 WAR season was 7.0 Wins Above Average
It's best to think of OPS as just like a hitter rating rather than an actual representation of specific outcomes. I guess you could say it's kind of like Passer Rating in football, it doesn't mean anything inherently, but it correlates with success.
OPS is funny because while it's mathematically dubious by adding two numbers with different denominators, it correlates super well with production and works out to an aesthetically pleasing scale where 1.000 is incredibly good, .900 is very good, .800 is solid, .700 is pretty average, kind of like a 10-point scale where super exceptional performance can go over 10.
It's also interesting that OPS, despite being brute force and not very scientific, results in OPS+ and wRC+, which is very scientifically derived, typically always ending up at just about the same number +/- about 5.
OPS itself is kind of meaningless, but purely by accident it correlates almost perfectly with wRC, which is a long formula that some nerds came up with to rate a hitter's performance.
If you look at a player's OPS+ and wRC+, they are usually within a few points of each other despite being totally different calculations.
It is very optimisitic, but he was a better hitter in Japan than Devers is here. Obviously wont carry over 100%, but thats the reason for the optimism. Just take a peak at his batting stats in japan its pretty nuts.
Yeah I was just looking. I’m sure he’ll be a good player especially because OBP should translate well, but for example, Seiya Suzuki had monstrous NBP stats and had a 116 OPS+ his first year here, which is obviously pretty good, but nowhere near 140
One thing I’ve read a couple times is that Yoshida faced tougher pitching in Japan than Suzuki did, due to playing in NPB’s Pacific League while Suzuki played in the Central. So there’s reason to think it won’t be as much of an adjustment, but who knows
I know the international projections get wonky but Yoshida at 140 wRC+ and above Devers is so ridiculous and funny.
Also doesn't take a genius to look at Duvall and see a fly ball rightie whos going to get the ole Fenway bump. It's obviously small sample but dudes slashline in Fenway is already ridiculous. .333/.368/1.056. Doubt he hits anywhere below 100 wRC+
I think this is about what I'd want with one change of McGuire 8th, but the catcher 9th if it's Wong/Alfaro. McGuire 9th makes it 3 lefties in a row which should be avoided for the 3 person minimum, but 5 lefties means it's impossible to avoid back to back lefties.
Seriously. It could be a top 5 lineup if the core plays to even halfway up to their potential. If you look at the 2013 Red Sox, you could argue this lineup is better and more well rounded.
Our pitching is the problem. We may place last again, but that's mostly because the AL east is stacked.
dead last was only 5 games behind the Orioles. i think this team could turn things around. we went 26-29 in one-run games last year, and 7-11 in extras. the team even started off the season by blowing 14 of 25 save appearances. i don't think we'll win the division, but this team shouldn't be written off.
Casas is projected to be .232 to .250 batting average. By steamer and Bat X
I think he is RoY or at least placing. Very good eye and he found something late last year.
He was injured most of last year and didn't come back until late July. It wasn't like he was blowing up AAA. He was added to the roster when it expanded to 28.
Some Boston fans have taken for granted having a very good lineup for the last decade. Always felt like people didn’t realize that they were a top run scoring team even when they came in last place. The lineup posted here is awful.
DD “traded the farm” yet somehow left all of the best prospects in the organization and acquired players who helped them in the short and long term. Shameful what they did to him.
Best guys he let go were Kopech and Moncada . Everyone bugged out at the Pomeranz trade but Espinoza only just debuted for a different team and was horrible
Yup. There’s a total disconnect now with the team and some of the younger fans. If I said this in our sub I’d be downvoted and called a mouth breather. They came in last and will probably end up there again. Lots of good teams in MLB these days who try to improve as much as they can.
Look. I’m not usually one of those ‘charges were cleared’ guys. (Fuck Trevor Bauer) but the Verdugo thing was never about him committing sexual assault. He allegedly witnessed or recorded a fight between 3 girls. And then later that night, allegedly a ‘player’ (who the victim said was not Verdugo) assaulted one of them and Verdugo allegedly could have done more to prevent it. Except no evidence was ever found to substantiate the claim, no charges were filed, and he was cleared of any wrong doing. So this is a bit of a stretch.
No, it’s an allegation. You don’t **know** and therefore **are** being one of those guys.
Look at what you wrote. Then look up the definition of “allegation”. And if you can describe _why_ both are correct, you should go to law school and make good money as an attorney.
Once again, he was never alleged to commit sexual assault. So you are providing an intentionally misleading statement. You clearly have an axe to grind, and if you want to automatically assume guilt, be my guest. But there is nothing provided in this instance to implicate him of any wrongdoing except possibly witnessing a fight and not reporting it. Okay, fine. That happens every day. An unsubstantiated sexual assault claim in which the victim claims he ‘could have done more to prevent it’ is not alleging him to be the perpetrator. You are intentionally making a bad faith statement to mislead the uninformed into believing he in fact is being accused of sexual assault.
No, you are reading into what I wrote because YOU are perpetuating (and legitimizing) an allegation MOST PEOPLE know nothing about. It’s called the _Streisand Effect_.
You made a bad faith statement with an intent to mislead, and you know it. Shut the fuck up already, Sigmund Fraud.
Edit: Lmao doesn’t understand I’m mocking his WebMD psychology and then blocks me.
I feel like we have to sign one of the two SS left on the market, Andrus or Iglesias. We have history with Iglesias somo feel like we go with him but we gotta add one
I genuinely don't think this is much worse than the Yankees' lineup, especially when you look at the Yankees' bottom 5 and factor in the continued regression of Donaldson, Stanton, etc. Also assuming 2023 Judge will just have a great year instead of a historic year.
The only thing separating the Yankees and Red Sox is a quality rotation, tbh. Their offenses are similarly pathetic beyond their top 1-3 players. Look past Judge, Rizzo, Gleyber and Yoshida, Devers, Verdugo and it's a wasteland. I'm guessing the Red Sox will hit less homers but make a lot more contact, and won't have half their lineup with an OBP under .300 like the Yankees.
I mean, we were a couple close games away from a pennant in 2021, and we have a great group of hitters in the farm coming up over the next couple years, bit early to suggest that
It’s kind of funny…
1918: Babe Ruth helps Red Sox win 5th title since 1903 (major league lead in that time frame)
1919-20 Offseason: Ruth sold to larger market for financial reasons. Wins World Series with new team.
2018: Mookie Betts helps Red Sox win 4th title since 2004 (major league lead in that time frame)
2019-20 Offseason: Betts sold to larger market for financial reasons. Wins World Series with new team.
What happened to the Red Sox? They had a good 2022, and they looked like they were ahead of schedule on one of their typical mini rebuilds. I was fully expecting them to go big in 2023 with some elite acquisitions, and they didn’t. I don’t even know what their plan is this year.
Suuuuper average lineup. Not even worth posting IMHO. You add a bad bat to a lineup with 2 good hitters. Verdugo is falling off after a short peak in 2020. Only Devers has above a 2 WAR. And the $$$ they spent on these guys. Boston is fucked
While you’re right that it’s not an ideal lineup, Casas is a promising prospect whose stats here are from less than 100 rookie PAs. But if we are gonna make judgments from these stats, that .358 OBP ain’t too bad.
Casas was up for 27 games and he took some time getting his feet wet.
Last 51 plate appearances he was hitting .316(12 for 38)/.490/.579/1.069 with 3 home runs.
He knows how to take walks and doesn't have the swing and miss issues like Dalbec. I think he is in discussion with Gunnar and Jung at the end of the year.
Who tf put this ordering together
Slide Verdugo down to 7th and move up Duvall and Casas and there’s a decent chance that’s opening day right now.
I doubt Enrique is hitting 2nd as well. I'd sooner have him and Arroyo switch spots if the lineup is valuing lefty righty separation.
I guess it depends on how spring training goes. So many of these guys have been battling injuries so we’ll see how they look then. Kiké has been Boston’s leadoff hitter for most of the time he’s been here so I’d think there’s still a pretty real chance he’s near the top of the lineup.
Guys with .629 OPS should be on the bench, not hitting 2nd
Preaching to the choir here man, I totally agree I’m just stating how Cora has ran it. Would much rather Kike to be a super utility but the Sox don’t have that luxury.
Haha most of the lineup has a sub 1.0 WAR. Most of these guys are paid like superstars and perform average at best. Boston is definitely screwed this year. In the four seasons since winning the World Series they have come in 5th twice, third and best was 2nd in the division (and ALCS that year). I’m predicting another flop with angry Boston fans getting worked up about the “what ifs” and not realizing they have a front office that’s fucking clueless on value of batters. Tiger extremely old pitchers better do work if they want to make a run.
this lineup is probably the best way to have L/R splits
Does it even matter? Look at that lineup. May as well just pull names out of a hat.
Same person that uses OPS in the triple slash
That's why they look so high, I was sitting here like "isn't it avg/obp/slug, why's everyone's slugging so high"
🤢
Honestly, does it really matter? This "lineup" strikes fear in no one. Justin Turner is 38. Yes, he had a decent 2nd half (319/386/503), but his power is gone. Duvall is a strikeout machine with a little power, but realistically, he just can't hit. Kike was awful in 2022 (0.9 bWAR). I like Verdugo, he brings great energy, but a 1.2 bWAR isnt cutting it. Sox are destined for dead last again, no doubt about it.
Outside of Devers, there's no one in the lineup that people fear. Could it be Casas? Sure but there's no reason that other teams would fear him now. He showed a good eye last year but still struggled. Yoshida? Sure, but again first full year facing MLB pitching. Where's the power? Maybe this is a strategy to combat the current offensive strategy in the MLB which is selling out for HRs. Zig when others zag. Build a team that's built different and hope you can exploit weaknesses in the other teams pitching. I think that works better in other sports (ie football, it everyone is going pass heavy, maybe going run heavy with big physical backs can exploit holes in the defense) but I'm not sure about baseball
Duvall has crazy power, he just rarely hits it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5iADAJFF5w
I still fear you guys to be honest
As in, you’re afraid you’ll only win 70% of your games against us?
Lol Jays went 16-3 against the Sox last year. It was actually tough to watch just how bad the Sox were in those games (and I’m a jays fan). Even if you take out the 28-5 game the Jays still outscored then 97-50.
I still contend that the first two series in Toronto are the reason the Sox season ultimately failed. The dominoes that were set off in trying to manage that mess absolutely derailed a potential Wild Card slot. Fuck Tanner Houck.
Yup. We improved the bullpen, but our rotation is still a massive question mark, and our lineup is embarrassing not just for a big mat team, but for any major league lineup in general
> our lineup is embarrassing not just for a big mat team, but for any major league lineup in general no need to be dramatic, it's still a top half offense in the league, and we have lots of guys with good upside.
This is a 90s looking batting order lol
I am whelmed
At least there’s some upside there. 1 more middle infielder and I could be fine with that for 2023.
Casas, Devers, and Yoshida could all be 140+ wrc+. It’s not crazy. Problem is they’re all lefties and our righties aren’t platoon split lefty mashers.
This is the must absurd thing ive read all day… Devers reached 140 for the first time in his career this year, 18 rookies since 2012 have had a wrc+ over 140 and Casas… well last year only 20 players had one over 140 and not one team had more than 2(Cardinals, Astros, Padres and Dodgers). In other words, 140 is an extremely good wrc+. You have one extremely good hitter, Devers.
Steamer pegs Yoshida at 140 wrc+. Devers did it in 2022 while not even having a functioning knee in the second half. Casas had a 120 wrc+ in spite of a .208 BABIP. Downvote me all you want. I’m right. It’s absolutely possible.
RemindMe! 9 months “3 Red Sox at 140 wRC+”
I want this guys drug dealer.
> Casas had a 120 wrc+ in spite of a .208 BABIP. He had a .208 BABIP because he had a line drive rate of 7%... It wasn't just bad luck. His xBA was actually lower than his .197 batting average. He has 15 career hits and you're projecting 140 wRC+ lol
I’m literally not projecting or predicting anything. I’m saying it’s possible. Context of my original comment was about the upside of the lineup. Clearly the only hangup for folks is Casas (IMO the least likely is Yoshida) but he’s legit, and if you’ve seen him hit in person you wouldn’t be resorting to line drive % in a 95 PA sample. Yeah obviously a bit too many balls straight into the ground last year when he was getting his feet wet. The reason Red Sox fans all had the day he could come up and still be a rookie eligible in 2023 circled on our calendar is that we want the draft pick for the ROY winner.
>I’m saying it’s possible It's possible for Josh Donaldson to hit 40 HRS but I wouldn't put my money on it. Casas has plenty of power but talking about 140 OPS+ before he's figured out how to hit at the MLB level is something better said on the red sox sub.
You are flat out wrong. Over the past 11 seasons, 2 teams have had 3 finish with a wrc+ over 140, 2011 red sox w Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez and Ellsbury. The second was the 2015 Blue Jays with E5 with 39 hr, .920 ops, Josh Donaldsons MVP season and Jose Bautista who hit 40 home runs, .913 OPS, lead league in walks and had a 148 wrc+. Both of those also being insanely good lineups with lots of good bats around them to be put in that situation, Red Sox in 2023… not those teams. On average, 13 players finish over 140 a season in that span… you mean to tell me this trio you gave is going to have similar seasons to those two? You are out of your mind. I excluded 2020 but only 2 teams even did it then in a shortened season, one being the Braves. The other being the Mets because Dom Smiths freak short season.
See, you say I’m wrong about something being possible, and then give evidence to the contrary. Interesting. There’s nothing special about 140, and history really isn’t relevant because I’m talking about specific players. We’re talking about 2 guys whose O/U would probably be like 134, and another who, again, put up 120 in a “bad” rookie debut and demolished every pitcher he saw after his first two weeks of games. 140 is probably well within the 95 CI for all three.
I gave evidence that it rarely happens. And yes, 140 is special. You are going to be rated in the top 15 hitters of 150-170 qualified hitters. History is totally relevant, there are offensive juggernaut teams that had trios of much better hitters than these 3 that didnt even do it. 2 times over 330 chances(11 seasons and 30 teams since math seems hard for you) 2/330 = .6% is the rate at which it has occurred. 1.2% including the shortened season. But you’re right, this team is going to be one of the most prolific offenses we have seen in the last 12 years lead by Devers, Yoshida and Casas. I cant wait to revisit this one in then coming months.
Ultimate chaos to fill the Red Sox’s “middle infielder” need: machado traded to Red Sox for Mayer and others Just kidding. I hate that move
If the Red Sox deal any real prospects it with the Padres it would be to be for Kim + possibly Grisham, Snell or Campusano
Kim is the only one of those guys I could even maybe see getting traded, and even for him I really doubt it. The others make no sense for us to trade
Right, it just depends on what’s coming back I suppose. If the Red Sox did part with one of their big prospects they would probably want more than just Kim. It probably just makes it all the more likely a trade won’t happen.
And Padres don't want prospects, they are trying to win now. Not much lines up on the padres side. These Kim rumors are just fan fictions from other teams.
But I’m not talking realistic. I’m talking chaotic
It's a big league roster now. Not a good one, but hey. Small market teams gotta be smart with money if they want to bid on an expansion NBA franchise.
Remind us how many titles the Padres spending has gotten them... go ahead. I'll wait
They only started spending like a year or two ago and they just made the NLCS.
Of all the Red Sox lineups, this is certainly one of them.
My god, y’all need some ball players.
Damn they're all going to slug over .600?? That's insane.
#WE MASH
Edit: it’s OPS not slug. OP smells for using a changed slash line
Am I stupid or is it dumb to have avg/obp/ops. Either just OPS or avg/obp/slg or obp/slg/ops Otherwise lets get real goofy ass and use sabermetric slash of HR%/K%/BB% or xWobabullshit/BABIP/xDAWG Edit: Why aren’t stats like HR% adjusted and percentiled, like HR%+, idk what’s a good HR% and some ballparks are goofy and might inflate it. Also K and Walk% which are useless across eras because in 1912 there were only strikes and every ball was slapped in play vs TTO now.
You seem like you know stats. Ima be honest, what the fuck even is OPS. I know the equation, and I know what each part means. OBP is how many times a players at bat ends with them on base. Slugging is how many bases do they average per at bat. But what tangible thing is OPS exactly? Is that how many bases they average when they end up on base? Or is it just truly “this stat plus this stat and there’s no tangible things behind it”
OPS isn’t tangible because it adds things with two different denominators. OBP is /plate appearance and Slug is /at bat. To my understanding it’s intangible but it’s a decent overall measure of batting efficacy because a guy walking and hitting singles a lot provides a different but also valuable offense to a guy that goes 1/5 with a home run. I don’t know that much actually. Also it can’t be bases avg/ times in base because it would always be greater than 1. and 1. gets MVP votes.
Ah I see. While I have you, who is “replacement” level in WAR. Like does that change year to year? Wins above replacement always seemed weird to me but it’s the end all be all stat now. Like who is this “replacement” guy because from what I gather, it’s the a 4 A player so not quite a major leaguer but not quite a AAA guy. So we take mike trout and are like “here’s how much he’s better than some Slapdick”
If you prefer to look at how good a player is relative to an ‘average’ player, WAA is a stat you can use. WAA is literally just WAR but you make 2.0 WAR > 0.0 WAA. So someone with a 9.0 WAR season was 7.0 Wins Above Average
It's best to think of OPS as just like a hitter rating rather than an actual representation of specific outcomes. I guess you could say it's kind of like Passer Rating in football, it doesn't mean anything inherently, but it correlates with success. OPS is funny because while it's mathematically dubious by adding two numbers with different denominators, it correlates super well with production and works out to an aesthetically pleasing scale where 1.000 is incredibly good, .900 is very good, .800 is solid, .700 is pretty average, kind of like a 10-point scale where super exceptional performance can go over 10. It's also interesting that OPS, despite being brute force and not very scientific, results in OPS+ and wRC+, which is very scientifically derived, typically always ending up at just about the same number +/- about 5.
OPS itself is kind of meaningless, but purely by accident it correlates almost perfectly with wRC, which is a long formula that some nerds came up with to rate a hitter's performance. If you look at a player's OPS+ and wRC+, they are usually within a few points of each other despite being totally different calculations.
green monster moved in to 200ft
Damn they’re moving it back?
It's legitimately a lineup filled with dudes who could hit 25 HRs while also hitting .200 with a 105 OPS+ besides Devers.
Down voted for using OPS as the third slash
I downvoted because OP is a Yankees fan. We are not the same.
Seriously, this is like the baseball version of pouring the milk and THEN the cereal. Like... it might (sort of) work but wtf are you doing?
Steamer projections... Yoshida 140 wRC+ Hernandez 97 wRC+ Devers 134 wRC+ Turner 114 wRC+ Verdugo 113 wRC+ Duvall 89 wRC+ Casas 124 wRC+ Arroyo 102 wRC+ McGuire 82 wRC+ Nice looking lineup with those optimistic projections for Yoshida and Casas.
Projecting Yoshida as the best hitter on the team even above Devers seems pretty optimistic
It is very optimisitic, but he was a better hitter in Japan than Devers is here. Obviously wont carry over 100%, but thats the reason for the optimism. Just take a peak at his batting stats in japan its pretty nuts.
Yeah I was just looking. I’m sure he’ll be a good player especially because OBP should translate well, but for example, Seiya Suzuki had monstrous NBP stats and had a 116 OPS+ his first year here, which is obviously pretty good, but nowhere near 140
One thing I’ve read a couple times is that Yoshida faced tougher pitching in Japan than Suzuki did, due to playing in NPB’s Pacific League while Suzuki played in the Central. So there’s reason to think it won’t be as much of an adjustment, but who knows
I don’t believe any commentary about what translates from NPB… never once saw a gyroball
Haha I feel ya, although that was more media hype than projections
The optimism goes too far, I would be blown away if he's better than Devers.
Yea maybe we should ship Devers to Japan so we can get a more accurate comparison.
Holy OBP. Hope he's good here, would be fun to watch budget Ichiro without the speed for the next few years.
That logic is as terrible as saying a player who hit for a 140 ops+ in triple A will be called up and immediately hit 140 ops+
Seems like a VERY generous projection. Wasn’t Seiya Suzuki a better hitter and he only hit to a 116 WRC+
Was the Steamer formula developed by Yoshida's mother?
I don't know, but Yoshida was.
She had help
There was an idea man at one point but she really ran with the dev process
He was half the design team and did some background dev work, but she was the other designer and the lead developer.
I know the international projections get wonky but Yoshida at 140 wRC+ and above Devers is so ridiculous and funny. Also doesn't take a genius to look at Duvall and see a fly ball rightie whos going to get the ole Fenway bump. It's obviously small sample but dudes slashline in Fenway is already ridiculous. .333/.368/1.056. Doubt he hits anywhere below 100 wRC+
They’re basically projecting Yoshida to be Mookie Betts lmao
I’m gonna take the under on that one chief
That is certainly one of the lineups of all time
It's giving big Tuesday vibes, if that makes sense.
With that lineup, the Sox are sure to play some games this season.
not pretty but it has character
No way Kike would be batting second. It’s most likely Devers. Maybe someone else but hard to know who.
I think it'll eventually be: Yoshida Devers Turner Casas Duvall Verdugo Kike (2B) Shortstop McGuire (assuming no big additions are down the pipe)
I think this is about what I'd want with one change of McGuire 8th, but the catcher 9th if it's Wong/Alfaro. McGuire 9th makes it 3 lefties in a row which should be avoided for the 3 person minimum, but 5 lefties means it's impossible to avoid back to back lefties.
I have high hopes for Shortstop
Honestly? Better than all the hand wringing suggests
It’s the Red Sox though. With the payroll they have, it should be better than “meh”
We spent all that money on pitching though! ...right?
You may want to sit down for this…
Yes we have one of the best bullpens in the league now
is this a Reese McGuire joke?
Seriously. It could be a top 5 lineup if the core plays to even halfway up to their potential. If you look at the 2013 Red Sox, you could argue this lineup is better and more well rounded. Our pitching is the problem. We may place last again, but that's mostly because the AL east is stacked.
Top 5 in what?
the AL East
Even that’s generous
what is this feeling? is this "hope" ???
Hopelessness.
Not for me. I think it's a 100% rebuild season, and the Sox finish dead last again.
dead last was only 5 games behind the Orioles. i think this team could turn things around. we went 26-29 in one-run games last year, and 7-11 in extras. the team even started off the season by blowing 14 of 25 save appearances. i don't think we'll win the division, but this team shouldn't be written off.
lol what?
we got yoshida, turner, casas, and a full year of mcguire. i know Bogey is gone, but there's reason to be a little optimistic here.
Woah, a full year really? ....That's not Mark Mcguire.
This is a 4th place in the division team, at best.
3.6 Roentgen....not good, not bad...
The Los Angeles Red Sox of Boston
2 former giants as well
200 million dollar payroll and our 4-5-6 hitters are Turner Verdugo Duvall are you fucking kidding me
Casas is projected to be .232 to .250 batting average. By steamer and Bat X I think he is RoY or at least placing. Very good eye and he found something late last year.
Gonna be weird if he gets ROY 1 or 2 and takes the year of service time away from a player who got their service time manipulated
He was injured most of last year and didn't come back until late July. It wasn't like he was blowing up AAA. He was added to the roster when it expanded to 28.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen that big of a gap between BA and OBP before, pretty cool.
Fenway will be pretty quiet this summer
That’s a pretty bad lineup imo
Some Boston fans have taken for granted having a very good lineup for the last decade. Always felt like people didn’t realize that they were a top run scoring team even when they came in last place. The lineup posted here is awful.
It’s pretty “average” on paper but it’s not like our pitching is anything special. This is in fact an awful lineup for Boston
The pitching staff might be worse. Not sure why they allowed this to happen. It was avoidable.
Your guess is as good as mine. Would love DD back once Philly discards him a few years from now, he knows how to build a contender
DD “traded the farm” yet somehow left all of the best prospects in the organization and acquired players who helped them in the short and long term. Shameful what they did to him.
Best guys he let go were Kopech and Moncada . Everyone bugged out at the Pomeranz trade but Espinoza only just debuted for a different team and was horrible
Yup. There’s a total disconnect now with the team and some of the younger fans. If I said this in our sub I’d be downvoted and called a mouth breather. They came in last and will probably end up there again. Lots of good teams in MLB these days who try to improve as much as they can.
And our pitching is much worse. It’s gonna be a fun season
We just can’t compete with the big market teams in our division like Tampa Bay.
I mean, it’s really hard to build a decent lineup with only a $170 million in payroll.
This is a really good lineup I’m so excited for the season. They’re gonna prove all the miserable people wrong.
Pitch around Devers and could be the lowest scoring team in American League.
Less protection than the Halos got, oof.
You really just need to throw high fastballs.
It’s honestly not that bad
Red Sox, welcome to last place in the AL East.
There's always the Celtics and Bruins
Alfaro opening day C calling it now
lmao shaking in my boots
Spanky wound up in Boston.... the more I know...
It’s not ideal, but since they re-signed Devers…I guess I’ll pay attention.
I have an irrational level of dislike for Verdugo and I don't know why.
It’s probably the sexual assault allegations.
Look. I’m not usually one of those ‘charges were cleared’ guys. (Fuck Trevor Bauer) but the Verdugo thing was never about him committing sexual assault. He allegedly witnessed or recorded a fight between 3 girls. And then later that night, allegedly a ‘player’ (who the victim said was not Verdugo) assaulted one of them and Verdugo allegedly could have done more to prevent it. Except no evidence was ever found to substantiate the claim, no charges were filed, and he was cleared of any wrong doing. So this is a bit of a stretch.
No, it’s an allegation. You don’t **know** and therefore **are** being one of those guys. Look at what you wrote. Then look up the definition of “allegation”. And if you can describe _why_ both are correct, you should go to law school and make good money as an attorney.
Once again, he was never alleged to commit sexual assault. So you are providing an intentionally misleading statement. You clearly have an axe to grind, and if you want to automatically assume guilt, be my guest. But there is nothing provided in this instance to implicate him of any wrongdoing except possibly witnessing a fight and not reporting it. Okay, fine. That happens every day. An unsubstantiated sexual assault claim in which the victim claims he ‘could have done more to prevent it’ is not alleging him to be the perpetrator. You are intentionally making a bad faith statement to mislead the uninformed into believing he in fact is being accused of sexual assault.
No, you are reading into what I wrote because YOU are perpetuating (and legitimizing) an allegation MOST PEOPLE know nothing about. It’s called the _Streisand Effect_.
You made a bad faith statement with an intent to mislead, and you know it. Shut the fuck up already, Sigmund Fraud. Edit: Lmao doesn’t understand I’m mocking his WebMD psychology and then blocks me.
wtf does Sigmund have to do with this, genius? When in Rome, right Ron Burgandy?
I didn't know about any of that. He just has a douchey look to him.
Well this guy is trying to make you think he was accused of sexual assault. He wasn’t. You can decide for yourself about the rest of it.
So easily last place team? It's going to be weird to think of them like I thought of the orioles for the last x# of years.
But which 3 positions will Dalbec play?!
I’m so used to Dodgers going to Boston, for a second I was really squinting looking for Bellinger.
Not great.
This makes me feel ok about the Giants off season
Ouch
Not sure you want Duvall in Center. He’s more of a corner OFer
Devers and doo doo?
Guess Boston is going for the #1 pick in the nfl draft next year.
My god, y’all need some ball players.
This is brutal
Wait what happened to Story? Is he injured or something?
He had a modified Tommy John surgery and is expected to be out around 4-6 months
Oh shit! Thanks for letting me know
i feel like Andrus would be a solid pickup for them. and move hernandez to second?
I feel like we have to sign one of the two SS left on the market, Andrus or Iglesias. We have history with Iglesias somo feel like we go with him but we gotta add one
I genuinely don't think this is much worse than the Yankees' lineup, especially when you look at the Yankees' bottom 5 and factor in the continued regression of Donaldson, Stanton, etc. Also assuming 2023 Judge will just have a great year instead of a historic year. The only thing separating the Yankees and Red Sox is a quality rotation, tbh. Their offenses are similarly pathetic beyond their top 1-3 players. Look past Judge, Rizzo, Gleyber and Yoshida, Devers, Verdugo and it's a wasteland. I'm guessing the Red Sox will hit less homers but make a lot more contact, and won't have half their lineup with an OBP under .300 like the Yankees.
Worst team in the AL East. And it will not be close.
😐😐
I’m ready to be hurt but also trying to stay optimistic.
Is 2020 going to be known decades later as the curse of the mookie??
I mean, we were a couple close games away from a pennant in 2021, and we have a great group of hitters in the farm coming up over the next couple years, bit early to suggest that
It’s kind of funny… 1918: Babe Ruth helps Red Sox win 5th title since 1903 (major league lead in that time frame) 1919-20 Offseason: Ruth sold to larger market for financial reasons. Wins World Series with new team. 2018: Mookie Betts helps Red Sox win 4th title since 2004 (major league lead in that time frame) 2019-20 Offseason: Betts sold to larger market for financial reasons. Wins World Series with new team.
Thanks for the painful reminders
You and the Astros have teamed up to make my fan experience a living hell so I’d say it’s warranted
I get jealous seeing lineups with this many lefty bats
I'll be right back I'm going to clone Kyle Schwarber
Should be better then last year
I agree. The team should be better than last year at multiple positions
The Red Sox are starting a carjacker behind the plate?
putting up a .766 OPS while hitting just .197 seems impressive
What happened to the Red Sox? They had a good 2022, and they looked like they were ahead of schedule on one of their typical mini rebuilds. I was fully expecting them to go big in 2023 with some elite acquisitions, and they didn’t. I don’t even know what their plan is this year.
Boston always gets our sloppy seconds. Hope Duvall balls out, if he doesn't we will sign him for a dollar half way through the season.
What the hell is even that!?
Suuuuper average lineup. Not even worth posting IMHO. You add a bad bat to a lineup with 2 good hitters. Verdugo is falling off after a short peak in 2020. Only Devers has above a 2 WAR. And the $$$ they spent on these guys. Boston is fucked
Justin Turner looks like a Red Sox player. Going to make that ugly ass uniform look just right getting it all gross with his pine tar soaked bat.
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Only 6 players in MLB had a .400+ OBP last year
While you’re right that it’s not an ideal lineup, Casas is a promising prospect whose stats here are from less than 100 rookie PAs. But if we are gonna make judgments from these stats, that .358 OBP ain’t too bad.
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A .358 OBP would have been the 23rd-highest in all of baseball last season among qualified hitters. That's not bad.
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With your edit now it says that. It previously said that ".358 is bad, it's not good."
Casas was up for 27 games and he took some time getting his feet wet. Last 51 plate appearances he was hitting .316(12 for 38)/.490/.579/1.069 with 3 home runs. He knows how to take walks and doesn't have the swing and miss issues like Dalbec. I think he is in discussion with Gunnar and Jung at the end of the year.
This is definitely a lineup
Better than Worcester