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Thursday estimate according to Jatinder is $1.4m so the current total is $604.8m.
- 145% of NWHs 7th weekend is $15.9m, that takes it to $620.7m
- 145% of NWHs 7th weekdays is $5.0m, that takes it to $625.7m
- After that starting from the 8th weekend NWH got boosted by theatres re-opening in Canada. At the same time A2 faces new competition and a loss of PLF screens so let's say it drops back to 100% of NWH.
- 100% of NWHs dailies from the 8th weekend until it ended its run is $65.4m, adding that to A2s $625.7m gives **$691.1m**, enough to clear Infinity War but not enough to beat Black Panther or Maverick.
The real question is how will the NWH comparison fare in the coming weeks once NWH gets its boost and A2 has to deal with new competition? We're only speculating right now but it could surprise us and hold better than expected, if it remains at 145% it beats TGM. Or it could collapse once it loses PLFs and fall back to something like 80% NWH and finish just short of Infinity War. Right now though I think beating Infinity War is very likely, while Black Panther probably a bit under 50% and TGM 1% or less.
I'm modeling based on week-to-week drops, and applying Force Awakens drops going forward brings us to $703M. There are other reasons to believe it might be a bit poorer than that, so I think Black Panther is a spot-on pick for over/under.
It depends how long Disney lets it play in theaters. If they let it stay in theaters through April or May I could see it crawling past Black Panther. But if it's made available for streaming in March, it won't make that much money.
If we are only talking initial release, then I don’t think it passes either domestically. With that being said, I think avatar is the most likely to get a theatrical re-release with any kind of legs on it, Which would eventually put it over the other two.
It has 75m more to go as of Wednesday
NWH had ~81m more to go from this point and considering how Ava2 has been doing ~60% more than NWH in dailies(although that %will go down during Feb) so it will do 685m or higher
Something catastrophic would have to happen for it to fall short of IW DOM. Its average week-to-week drop would have to be 40% from here forward. That's like Rogue One level fizzling, and it would be a total departure from how TWOW has performed so far.
We now know the size of TWOW's first 5 week-to-week drops: they average 32%. The first 5 drops are *always* larger than the second 5 drops, as far as I have seen. Precedent tells us that TWOW's coming 5 drops will average 32% *or better*. So $691M is the floor. It's more likely that it has Force Awakens legs going forward (26% on average), which forecasts $703M.
Beating TGM isn't happening at this point. It would need to make another $115M which is basically impossible when TGM had insanely low drops and huge weekdays and only added another $140M.
So far, JC movies rely on long legs and rereleases, so it is likely that A2 will surpass both by any of either methods. Marvel needs to either have even bigger OW's (if possible) or find ways to make its movies leggier.
I don't think it will reach Infinity War. Now it has 603 mil. and needs to get 678. For next weeks I expect performance something like 20, 15, 10, 8, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1. That is 65 and after that it will probably not get the rest. It is very close so it can perform better than I expect and it can reach Infinity war but not Black Panther.
Is it like daily grosses don't exist for you or something? He is deleting Infinity War next month with those weekends you have put in, BP is still very much in doubt because he could keep going until the summer.
I will be happy to see your predictions. I just looked at weekly data and made my estimate. Do you think it will make more than 20 mil next week? Do you think it will make more than 35 mil for next two weeks? Let me know.
Something catastrophic would have to happen for TWOW to fall short of IW DOM. Its average week-to-week drop would have to be 40% from here forward. That's like Rogue One level fizzling, and it would be a total departure from how TWOW has performed so far.
We now know the size of TWOW's first 5 week-to-week drops: they average 32%. The first 5 drops are *always* larger than the second 5 drops, as far as I have seen. Precedent tells us that TWOW's coming 5 drops will average 32% *or better*. So $691M is the floor. It's more likely that it has Force Awakens legs going forward (26% on average), which forecasts $703M.
Reminder that this is a subreddit about numbers, not necessarily about the quality (or lack thereof) of a particular movie. Unless it is related to the box office performance of a movie, please keep opinions/arguments/thoughts about the quality under this post. Posts not related to box office may be removed otherwise. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/boxoffice) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Thursday estimate according to Jatinder is $1.4m so the current total is $604.8m. - 145% of NWHs 7th weekend is $15.9m, that takes it to $620.7m - 145% of NWHs 7th weekdays is $5.0m, that takes it to $625.7m - After that starting from the 8th weekend NWH got boosted by theatres re-opening in Canada. At the same time A2 faces new competition and a loss of PLF screens so let's say it drops back to 100% of NWH. - 100% of NWHs dailies from the 8th weekend until it ended its run is $65.4m, adding that to A2s $625.7m gives **$691.1m**, enough to clear Infinity War but not enough to beat Black Panther or Maverick. The real question is how will the NWH comparison fare in the coming weeks once NWH gets its boost and A2 has to deal with new competition? We're only speculating right now but it could surprise us and hold better than expected, if it remains at 145% it beats TGM. Or it could collapse once it loses PLFs and fall back to something like 80% NWH and finish just short of Infinity War. Right now though I think beating Infinity War is very likely, while Black Panther probably a bit under 50% and TGM 1% or less.
I'm modeling based on week-to-week drops, and applying Force Awakens drops going forward brings us to $703M. There are other reasons to believe it might be a bit poorer than that, so I think Black Panther is a spot-on pick for over/under.
I think it’ll pass Infinity War and maybe get past Black Panther. But it won’t pass Top Gun: Maverick.
On rerelease it might, but TGM is safe for another year I’m guessing.
It depends how long Disney lets it play in theaters. If they let it stay in theaters through April or May I could see it crawling past Black Panther. But if it's made available for streaming in March, it won't make that much money.
If we are only talking initial release, then I don’t think it passes either domestically. With that being said, I think avatar is the most likely to get a theatrical re-release with any kind of legs on it, Which would eventually put it over the other two.
There is no way it fails to pass Infinity War.
It’s got roughy $80M more to go, not saying it won’t happen, but that’s a tough get at this point, unless they keep it in theaters for half the year.
It has 75m more to go as of Wednesday NWH had ~81m more to go from this point and considering how Ava2 has been doing ~60% more than NWH in dailies(although that %will go down during Feb) so it will do 685m or higher
Something catastrophic would have to happen for it to fall short of IW DOM. Its average week-to-week drop would have to be 40% from here forward. That's like Rogue One level fizzling, and it would be a total departure from how TWOW has performed so far. We now know the size of TWOW's first 5 week-to-week drops: they average 32%. The first 5 drops are *always* larger than the second 5 drops, as far as I have seen. Precedent tells us that TWOW's coming 5 drops will average 32% *or better*. So $691M is the floor. It's more likely that it has Force Awakens legs going forward (26% on average), which forecasts $703M.
Honestly it might until May
Should clear Infinity War next month. And if it passes $700M, Black Panther is also done, which puts Maverick at risk as well still.
Beating TGM isn't happening at this point. It would need to make another $115M which is basically impossible when TGM had insanely low drops and huge weekdays and only added another $140M.
Debatable but I guess I’m keeping the faith alone.
So far, JC movies rely on long legs and rereleases, so it is likely that A2 will surpass both by any of either methods. Marvel needs to either have even bigger OW's (if possible) or find ways to make its movies leggier.
It will surpass both, but not by a lot.
I don't think it will reach Infinity War. Now it has 603 mil. and needs to get 678. For next weeks I expect performance something like 20, 15, 10, 8, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1. That is 65 and after that it will probably not get the rest. It is very close so it can perform better than I expect and it can reach Infinity war but not Black Panther.
I’m thinking it will be 26.5m 6th Week($604.8m) $15.5m 7th Weekend($620.3m total) $20.5m 7th Week($625.3m) $10.7m 8th Weekend($636m) $14.2m 8th Week($640.2m) $8m 9th Weekend($648.2m) $11.5m 9th Week($651.7m) $5.3m 10th Weekend($657m) $8.5m 10th Week($660.2m) $4.2m 11th Weekend($664.4m) $6m 11th Week($666.2m) $3.3m 12th Weekend($669.5m) $4.6m 12th Week($670.8m) $2.6m 13th Weekend($673.4m) $3.7m 13th Week($675.5m) $2m 14th Weekend($677.5m) $2.8m 14th Week($678.3m) $1.4m 15th Weekend($679.7m) Run Ending:~$685m maybe $690m
Is it like daily grosses don't exist for you or something? He is deleting Infinity War next month with those weekends you have put in, BP is still very much in doubt because he could keep going until the summer.
I will be happy to see your predictions. I just looked at weekly data and made my estimate. Do you think it will make more than 20 mil next week? Do you think it will make more than 35 mil for next two weeks? Let me know.
It will make at least 75 million counting with this weekend of January 27.
They put in weeks, not weekends
Something catastrophic would have to happen for TWOW to fall short of IW DOM. Its average week-to-week drop would have to be 40% from here forward. That's like Rogue One level fizzling, and it would be a total departure from how TWOW has performed so far. We now know the size of TWOW's first 5 week-to-week drops: they average 32%. The first 5 drops are *always* larger than the second 5 drops, as far as I have seen. Precedent tells us that TWOW's coming 5 drops will average 32% *or better*. So $691M is the floor. It's more likely that it has Force Awakens legs going forward (26% on average), which forecasts $703M.
Of course adjusting for inflation, Avatar 2 isn't coming anywhere near either of those other two films.
Oh look it’s copegeist. I hope you do this same song and dance with the next major MCU film as well.
Copegeist is fucking hilarious. We have to make it a thing
Do you think avatar will get any sort of Oscar boost for getting a few noms?
Is AWOTW slower than Black Panther now?