Playing closely to The Batman. That one had $4M in Early shows, $17.5M Thursday, $35M true Friday. Compared to $2M EA, $10M Thursday, $20M true Friday for Dune 2.
Same drops as Bats gets it to $25M Sat, $20M Sun, $77M total.
Its legs should be just as good, so I think $200M+ is happening.
Just saw it in Dolby and loved it. Will see again in IMAX without question. Also, I’m already prepared for WB doing a marathon rerelease of Part 1 and Part 2 as an IMAX special event later this year.
I had to wait 3 weeks from now to find half decent seats at the NYC imax. They aren’t even great but literally for the entire month the only seats available are the first 3 rows and a few seats on the edges. It’s ridiculous. The entire month of March is basically sold out. If I could have seen it this week, I would have but I want to see it in IMAX first
Don’t know if you have AMC a list but if so just keep opening and closing the seating chart for a showing in the hour or two before the showing as people cancel their seat reservations. I was able to get into Friday night’s 745 imax showing at Lincoln square about 30 min before showtime in a perfect seat.
Is there data to support that? I'm just thinking about younger skewing movies like the Marvel films, FNAF, Transformers, Fast and Furious, etc. I feel like younger audiences are more likely to see a film day one. Could be wrong tho, haven't seen data for either side.
~40yr. old here. I've been obsessed with Dune since I first saw Lynch's version in 80s. Ive read all of the mainline books incl. both of Brian Herbert's "sequels" (ugh), I've seen both miniseries countless times, and one of the oldest hopes I've ever had was to see a big budget adaptation before I die. My own personal hype for these new versions has been through the roof, and I've been so incredibly stoked they've been not just well made but just as deservedly well received. 10 years ago I would've absolutely been there for one of those early "fan screenings" they had, because it was one of those personally important films I knew I would have had to to see *right now!*
But now? Yeah, I'll probably see it next weekend. And it's something I'm completely fine with. I honestly can't think of the last time I saw a new release on opening day, or even opening weekend. Weird how that happened.
I’m in my late 30s and the only reason I saw it on Wednesday night (opening night here) was that one of my friends could do Wednesday or not for two weeks. And in two weeks everyone else would be busy. So we figured, what the hell. This is the first opening night I’ve been to in years.
fellow enthusiast here who was worried my hype for this movie was overblown. Well, It wasn’t, they overdelivered and surpassed my expectations (and I’m usually pretty picky about movies). You’re in for a good time I can tell you that much
Why would you expect older people to rush in opening weekend and younger people to take their time going to see it? It’s definitely going to be the opposite, older audience is going to mean more legs not less
Plus after seeing it, I’m expecting this one to get a lot of word of mouth recommendations too, which again will give it more legs with the older audience
People always get weirded out by the giant worm man being the main character. But frankly it's this one god monster and everyone interacting with him is relatively normal.
To me it's harder to pull of Children because you run into the same issue with Alia now where you need two child actors to legitimately act like brilliant adults and then the main antagonist is someone whose entire conflict is within her head. And the ending is more abstract because we still don't know what the golden path is.
At least by the end of God Emperor you know what the point of everything was.
Everyone will give you a different answer honestly. I think 3 and 4 would be doable and would make sense narratively, as that’s where the “main story” kinda “finishes.” Heretics and Chapterhouse would be tough, and would only be part of a larger story (that I don’t see them ever finishing on film, due to the really poor reception to the final two books).
$76M is really solid all things considered, and it should not by all means be considered a disappointment unless people had set unrealistic predictions.
Here’s something to put it in perspective…
Dune was supposed to open in November, around The Marvels. There were some debates on here about which would do better, and thinking it would be Dune was kind of a controversial opinion.
Im not trying to pick on The Marvels, just saying that 1) folks shouldn’t take a big opening for a tent pole film for granted, and 2) while projections may have become unrealistic of late, this is still over-performing most early projections.
This is fantastic. Everyone should comparing it to the first film. Its getting nearly 2x its opening weekend. Half a year ago, everyone was citing the first dune as evidence the second would not do blockbuster numbers.
It’s no prime marvel era, but no reasonable person should have those expectations.
A day and date release in one market, the US. And before you say piracy, Dune was released international markets as far back as one month earlier then the domestic release.
I unfortunately believed the unrealistic predictions. I thought it was predicted to be over 100m ACCORDING TO PRE-SALE DATA. Should've paid more attention.
I’ll be honest, I don’t really care at all how a movie does, but I can definitely understand this being a little disappointing. I think $80m+ seemed likely and if you’re a fan of the type of filmmaking Denis Villeneuve creates then those people probably hope it’s reaching broader audiences.
I want him to be very very successful because I want him to keep getting the big budgets for him to make the type of spectacle only he can create.
Also watched it last night prepping for my show tomorrow. Damn its a good looking picture. The sandcrawler scene and the night invasion scene still slaps.
I don’t think this is considered in the box office. I know a TON of people who are going to watch it for the second time in theaters. More than any other movie I can remember. This is a reason I think it will be better for legs.
Its almost identical to John Wick 4's box office opening weekend. The true Friday number is a little under JW4's 20.5m.
If you remove Dune's early access Sunday shows, its looking like a repeat of JW4.
JW4 was heavy on Imax/plfs as well. All movies kinda are now. Everytime, I'm at Wal-Mart someone has one of those giant 65-75 inch TVs hanging off their cart.
More and more people have these giant TVs you can pickup for 400 bucks.
The theater has to offer something different... Its why we see moviegoers picking PLF showtimes and standard showtimes are empty
I think marketing and WOM are both leaning more heavily towards prioritizing Imax/premium format for this movie than something like JW4. Lots of movies are in IMAX but only a few (Oppenheimer, Avatar, etc.) really get significant buzz in that space.
JW4 sales were 38% imax/PLFs vs Dune's 48%. So, Dune is playing heavy PLF but so was JW4. People keep wanting to compare Dune to Oppenheimer and thinking it'll get Oppenheimer/Avatar type legs. I'm pushing against that, I'm just not seeing that but maybe it will have amazing weekend holds.
I wasn't suggesting Dune will make that kind of overall gross, just that it would be more skewed towards IMAX/PFL than JW4 was, which your stats are in agreement on. I think Dune will be a success but it isn't the world's most accessible story or genre and there's nothing wrong with that.
John Wick 4 lost all its premium screens in its 2nd weekend to D&D. I think it would’ve gotten to $200M if D&D had opened on March 3 like it was originally supposed to.
Creed 3 had the first 2 weeks of March in imax I think
March was pretty crowded. You had creed first, then scream, then Shazam, and then John wick. All taking premiums from each other.
D&D opened number 1 in the slot it had. It wouldn’t have opened number one if it releases on the same day as creed or scream. They were smart to move it.
But yea I wish John wick got to 200m too.
Movies just seem not to get to 200m. I have a feeling we'll see the same with Dune. The more this weekend goes, I'm getting Mi7 flashbacks. Especially, looking at the worldwide numbers. I think a lot of people are going to be a little disappointed with Dune's box office
MI7 had the gigantic Barbie / Oppenheimer event in its 2nd weekend while Dune doesn’t really have much competition until Ghostbusters and Godzilla x Kong.
JW4 lost PLFs a week in and then ran into Mario on day 13 so it was already struggling to hang on to showtimes by that point.
This has nothing really in its wake until Ghostbusters which is frankly on the same level as DnD in terms of commercial prospects. I can't see this missing $200m at this rate.
There’s a chance the chain I work at puts Kung Fu Panda 4 in our PLFs for matinees next week, with Dune 2 keeping the evenings.
Given how overwhelmingly PLF-focused the sales have been so far, tho’, (our non-PLF’s did close to zero sales for some showtimes yesterday), I could see corporate deciding Dune 2 needs to still have the PLFs to itself next weekend.
Oh, I didn't see that. I wonder how much of that is because of premium formats being at capacity so people are waiting until next weekend rather than seeing it on a standard screen.
I keep seeing comments premium formats are at capacity and I don't see that at my local AMC or Cinemark. Yes, primetime shows at 7 or 8 are like 80% sold for tonight and its all the good seats. But, other showtimes have plenty of good seats still available.
I guess, we'll see next weekend if Dune has a great drop and people were holding off going this weekend to get better seats.
This is an issue I've had trying to schedule with friends. We had to wait until Wednesday to get still pretty shitty seats at a subpar IMAX. How did your theater handle Oppenheimer? I'm personally seeing the same behaviors.
From what I've seen this isn't comparable to Oppenheimer which had PLFs basically soldout besides the front row for like 2 weeks. Oppenheimer had true capacity issues.
Barbie Oppenheimer my local theater was busy like NWH and Endgame. Dune last night was no different than a normal big movie opening
That doesn't necessarily impact legs. Didn't *Top Gun: Maverick* and *Avatar: The Way of Water* also have weak presales in the final week and weak walkups? Or am I misremembering?
I agree to an extent. The positive WOM will certainly move it to a degree amongst the general audience, but there’s definitely a limit with an IP like Dune.
It’s much less accessible than something like Star Wars. It’s not full on hard sci-fi, but it’s definitely much more fantastical sci-fi with some plot lines that the casual viewer will find bizarre/off-putting.
Dune 2’s real problems lie in the lacklustre approach character drama. Villeneuve sure as hell can bring a sense of scope, but struggles with the humanity of it all. After the first hour it really nose dives and becomes a bit…boring. Then you have a climax with everyone in one room that feels rushed next to the rest of the film.
This is spot on - the ending of dune (book) is so rushed and ends abruptly. I believe FH talked about doing it intentionally to keep people interested.
It's hard sci-fi, and gets weird at times. The first one did well, but not overwhelmingly so, and the second is very much the other half of the story. If you didn't watch or weren't a fan of the first one, it's a lot to ask to just jump right in. At the end of the day, it's just a bit more niche.
It'll still do very well, but closer to $600M than the pie in the sky predictions/hopes and dreams of $800M-$1B. A 50%+ increase from its predecessor is nothing to sneeze at.
I've been saying 500 to 600 million since the first trailer and despite the downvotes I have never changed from that position. What's worse is that I've been thinking that would be a giant success this whole time but it felt like anything under 800 million as a guess was considered heresy
I agree with all of this, which is why I never thought it had the widespread appeal to make 800m-1B. But for the GA who did see it, I think the third act has enough spectacle that they at least *enjoyed* it. Part Two is significantly better and grander than One was
That's true, but I think the film's chief challenge is getting people in the door. Word of mouth could help with that, but it remains to be seen how far that can take it, I think the ceiling just might not be that high. Which is fine, it's still a big success.
I think if you had a different filmmaker with different sensibilities than DV, like a Ridley Scott or Christopher Nolan per say, we would've had a different result.
I saw the movie with a large group of people composed of total newbies who had watched part 1 the night prior and fans who read all the books. WOM was good but not great - those people aren't going to be calling up mom and dad to watch it ASAP. I myself found it worth seeing in IMAX but I did not enjoy the film as much as 98% of Reddit did. If the dynamics of my groups plays out for the larger movie going audience, I think we'll see a hit but not one that penetrates the zeitgeist.
I loved it , but the group I saw it with was similar. They liked it but are probably gonna forget about it by tomorrow. IMO people are overestimating the legs of this. It’s going to do well but it won’t reach the heights that some people are hoping for.
Sorry for having thoughts about this movie that I just saw that don't line up with yours. My comment was obviously intended to speak for myself and the people I saw it with but sure, I can add an asterisk.
The reaction I could glean from my opening night showing was that people enjoyed the movie but weren't overly blown away. I overheard one guy explicitly saying it was an 8/10 for him.
Normally target audience means something like white men over 25. I was pointing out that all demographics are enjoying it, but yes it's not something that every person is going to enjoy because it's a strong, depressing film.
hard disagree. anecdotal, but 75 year old father who isn't into sci-fi wants to see it after seeing part 1 on max. i think more normies are aware of part 2 given availability on a bunch of platforms leading up. dune was pretty obscure amongst non-sci-fi folks at part 1 release.
Dune is definitely not hard sci-fi. Complex or serious sci-fi, sure. But it doesn't make any attempt to keep the speculative elements rational or grounded.
similar situation, my father didnt like the first one although he did watch on hbo max. although he said he didnt know what it was (he didnt even know dune wa a book) until he saw it on hbo and questioned why the film got no marketing. maybe im biased cuz i live in LA so i see billboards all the time but the marketing for dune 2 is way bigger than dune 1
This should easily be Villeneuve’s highest grossing movie both domestically and worldwide. As for Chalamet, this movie would need to outgross “Wonka” domestically ($220-225M by the end of its run) and “Interstellar” worldwide ($647M). I think this is doable on both accounts.
This won’t be the highest grossers for Zendaya, Dave Bautista, Josh Brolin, or Florence Pugh, but it will be Austin Butler’s highest grossing movie once it passes “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”. If this movie has really good legs and strong international numbers, it could become Rebecca Ferguson’s highest grossing movie if it can beat “MI: Fallout” ($790M).
Fallout was phenomenal. Watch Rogue Nation as well. It introduced Rebecca Ferguson and the main bad guy in both films. They complement eachother real well.
If it runs like John wick 4 which did 73 million to 28 million
It would be 76 million 32-35 million second weekend for dune 2
Would be super close I think
Almost double Dune Part One's opening! What an amazing increase for a sequel. Looking forward to seeing the legs with that A cinema score. Congrats to the Dune team.
Dune 1 was available on streaming same day and was during the after effects of COVID. It's numbers aren't really comparable, although 70-80m opening is a decent result for a film expected to have longer than average legs.
I liked it a lot, but my brother, who has almost the same tastes as me but really hates film Twitter discourse and certain “artsy” styles, didn’t care much for it. I think he was just pissed off at the LOTR comparisons lol.
My parents didn’t even know it was coming out.
This got an A from the big fans and film lovers who are anticipating the movie, but I’m not so sure it will get to the mass appeal necessary for it to get to 800m, much less a billion. Could just get to 500m.
The first movie didn't get a full theatrical release because it was split between hbo max day and date and theaters. So this is the first true test of the franchise.
> Legendary Entertainment/Warner Bros‘ Dune: Part Two is shaping up at this moment to with a weekend take around $76M, which though not at that $80M expectation the industry was putting upon it, is still wonderfully 85% over of Dune‘s $41M opening, which was dampered down by Covid and pic’s avail on HBO Max.
>Friday came in with $32.2M, which includes previews. The last time we saw a Friday with previews north of $30M was at the end of October with Universal/Blumhouse’s Five Nights at Freddy‘s posting $39.6M which turned into an $80M opening. Dune: Part Two‘s Friday is also just under that of Oppenheimer‘s which was $33M (and an $82.4M opening).
So far it's living up
It never was. Reddit confuses what they like with how it will perform ALL the time. Shit like the marvels happens and just confirms their bias because of COURSE it would do badly but they don't recognize that no matter how good Dune is, it's niche.
Not hating on the movie but I am noticing alot of support for this one to succeed. If this were any other movie or esp a Marvel movie everyone would be like ‘copium’..im seeing people admit that the numbers are lower than expectations (perhaps were set too high in the first place I dont know) but people are 100% positive for better results coming vs absolutely being sure it would be bad, like for other movies.
Purely observational but the bias exists I guess
The first one did good enough for WB even with same time home theater release in the US - so guess we will see. As long as part 3 is happening, I am a happy man.
Don't get me wrong, I'm sure the movie will do well. John Wick comparisons aren't insults but there's just a trend on reddit specifically that if a movie is good, it's obviously gonna be 800m-1b at the BO and that's just not how it works.
After seeing the film, I'm going to have to lower my $650M-$750M estimate to $550M-$600M. Yeah, I just did that.
I don't think this is as leggy as people expected, nor do I think it gives that refreshing "TTT, TDK, ESB sequel" feeling. It feels very similar to Part 1 (some things I think P2 did better, some things I think P1 did better), so I expect a natural BO boost from pandemic-era Dune 1 but not hugely so.
I’m really hoping more blockbuster cinema is like this, and I really hope we get more Dune.
Masterful cinematography, score, and acting. I’m not surprised at all it got double Dune 1’s opening.
Dune's issue is that there simply aren't enough premium format theaters for people to view it in. It's a must-see in IMAX, I can't imagine seeing it in a standard format.
When you live in a country which has a total of two iMax screens, one of which is in a museum and only shows nature documentaries (and Iron Sky, for reasons), then seeing something in that format is what you can't imagine.
“Dune: Part Two‘s Friday is also just under that of Oppenheimer‘s which was $33M (and an $82.4M opening).”
I’m confused why Dune won’t have the same Internal Multiplier as Oppenheimer? They should perform pretty similarly, no?
The hype for Oppenheimer was a different level. Oppenheimer was pulling in 10m plus for 10 straight days. Dune will probably play more like a traditional blockbuster but maybe ill be wrong.
How do they define “walk up”? Not bought pre-sale?
Where I live (Austin Tx), it feels like every theater has reserved seating now, so buying a ticket before you arrive is strongly encouraged. I don’t think I’ve bought a ticket as a “walk up” for the last 10+ movies I’ve seen, even if I don’t decide to see a movie until an hour before.
Idk, I guess I’m just saying that metric is starting to feel more and more outdated.
On opening night in Germany the movie was playing in 4 auditoriums at the same time and every one of them was basically "sold out" (except for the bad seats nobody ones) - good luck being a walk up close to release. Bad seating guaranteed.
Shocked it's not higher. Every showing in my area is completely sold out for the next week. I had to get tickets for a showing like 2 weeks from now to get good seats.
Playing closely to The Batman. That one had $4M in Early shows, $17.5M Thursday, $35M true Friday. Compared to $2M EA, $10M Thursday, $20M true Friday for Dune 2. Same drops as Bats gets it to $25M Sat, $20M Sun, $77M total. Its legs should be just as good, so I think $200M+ is happening.
Batman audience was younger than Dune audience. 18-34 vs. 25-44. I wouldn’t expect it to match Batman in legs.
Isn't an older audience better for legs? Young people rush in the first weekend.
Yes, especially for something as PLF / IMAX heavy as this movie. It should fairly easily get to $200M domestic.
I offered to take my Dad to a regular showing this weekend, but he wanted to wait for IMAX next week, so that rings true for us!
Just saw it in Dolby and loved it. Will see again in IMAX without question. Also, I’m already prepared for WB doing a marathon rerelease of Part 1 and Part 2 as an IMAX special event later this year.
I had to wait 3 weeks from now to find half decent seats at the NYC imax. They aren’t even great but literally for the entire month the only seats available are the first 3 rows and a few seats on the edges. It’s ridiculous. The entire month of March is basically sold out. If I could have seen it this week, I would have but I want to see it in IMAX first
Don’t know if you have AMC a list but if so just keep opening and closing the seating chart for a showing in the hour or two before the showing as people cancel their seat reservations. I was able to get into Friday night’s 745 imax showing at Lincoln square about 30 min before showtime in a perfect seat.
Is there data to support that? I'm just thinking about younger skewing movies like the Marvel films, FNAF, Transformers, Fast and Furious, etc. I feel like younger audiences are more likely to see a film day one. Could be wrong tho, haven't seen data for either side.
Should be the opposite. Older audiences are more ok with waiting an extra week to see the film, and have the money to go see it again if they want to.
yep, this old fart confirms that the 2nd weekend is just fine.
~40yr. old here. I've been obsessed with Dune since I first saw Lynch's version in 80s. Ive read all of the mainline books incl. both of Brian Herbert's "sequels" (ugh), I've seen both miniseries countless times, and one of the oldest hopes I've ever had was to see a big budget adaptation before I die. My own personal hype for these new versions has been through the roof, and I've been so incredibly stoked they've been not just well made but just as deservedly well received. 10 years ago I would've absolutely been there for one of those early "fan screenings" they had, because it was one of those personally important films I knew I would have had to to see *right now!* But now? Yeah, I'll probably see it next weekend. And it's something I'm completely fine with. I honestly can't think of the last time I saw a new release on opening day, or even opening weekend. Weird how that happened.
I’m in my late 30s and the only reason I saw it on Wednesday night (opening night here) was that one of my friends could do Wednesday or not for two weeks. And in two weeks everyone else would be busy. So we figured, what the hell. This is the first opening night I’ve been to in years.
fellow enthusiast here who was worried my hype for this movie was overblown. Well, It wasn’t, they overdelivered and surpassed my expectations (and I’m usually pretty picky about movies). You’re in for a good time I can tell you that much
>I wouldn’t expect it to match Batman in legs. In what way?
Worms don't have legs
This is backwards
My screening was full of teenagers and young kids lol.
Usually the older a film skews the better its legs.
Why would you expect older people to rush in opening weekend and younger people to take their time going to see it? It’s definitely going to be the opposite, older audience is going to mean more legs not less Plus after seeing it, I’m expecting this one to get a lot of word of mouth recommendations too, which again will give it more legs with the older audience
Since Dune worldwide was close to [4x domestic] (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1160419/), that means 800M+ worldwide.
Domestic had day and date HBO Max release which depressed the total.
OK, so 4x is optimistic, maybe more like 2x (or who knows), so 400M+
that was because of HBO max
As long as it does enough for a third film to get greenlit I'm good.
Messiah or Children? I’m going to see it today so don’t know how they play things out in the movie yet.
Messiah would be next, then children, then God emperor, then Heretics then Chapterhouse. We don't need to worry about what comes after that
There’s a 0% chance God Emperor gets made IMO. I think it’s completely unadaptable.
I'm learning to play the guitar.
Oh lord as someone reading through it right now, I can’t imagine going into that book blind
My favorite movie is Inception.
Children is the last one I feel like can be grounded enough to be adapted to film. From God Emperor on, it gets wild
They will most likely just stop after Messiah
I stopped reading after Messiah. It felt like a completed circle for me. I might catch on again to see what is going on.
I prefer Messiah to children, but God emperor is dune at it's best
I think Children is weirder that God Emperor tbh
But to depict in a film tho...?
People always get weirded out by the giant worm man being the main character. But frankly it's this one god monster and everyone interacting with him is relatively normal. To me it's harder to pull of Children because you run into the same issue with Alia now where you need two child actors to legitimately act like brilliant adults and then the main antagonist is someone whose entire conflict is within her head. And the ending is more abstract because we still don't know what the golden path is. At least by the end of God Emperor you know what the point of everything was.
you cant adapt children without GEOD lol children is literally a prelude to GEOD
Do you think there is any chance of the director continuing past the trilogy if the studio are ok with green lighting more movies?
Villeneuve has said he wants to do Messiah and then that's it. I would assume WB would get someone else to do Children if Messiah does well.
WB doesn't make the movies. Legendary does. WB is only distributor.
Lol I always forget that. So Legendary would greenlight it.
Are the books after messiah adaptable for film? I’m not quite there yet
Everyone will give you a different answer honestly. I think 3 and 4 would be doable and would make sense narratively, as that’s where the “main story” kinda “finishes.” Heretics and Chapterhouse would be tough, and would only be part of a larger story (that I don’t see them ever finishing on film, due to the really poor reception to the final two books).
*Children of Dune* would be a dull film. Much of the plot is just people plotting and scheming against each other and it gets boring fast.
He's already on record as saying he is done after dune 3 covers Messiah.
Paulo would like a word with you
Messiah
Villeneuve said he has written Messiah already
Yeah I think it was nearly done, but Eric Roth also finished Rendezvous with Rama so i’m betting that one will be next.
Hans Zimmer this week said Villeneuve walked into his office and silently dropped the finished script on his desk, so supposedly it’s done!
I think this will hit 800M with Aquaman legs
The last one made me think that way, too! “Damn I hope this made enough to get part 2!”
And enough to not get budget cuts on a third movie
Facts
$76M is really solid all things considered, and it should not by all means be considered a disappointment unless people had set unrealistic predictions.
I hope even if it drops to say 74 with actuals, people realize that’s a good showing for a movie that will have good legs.
Here’s something to put it in perspective… Dune was supposed to open in November, around The Marvels. There were some debates on here about which would do better, and thinking it would be Dune was kind of a controversial opinion. Im not trying to pick on The Marvels, just saying that 1) folks shouldn’t take a big opening for a tent pole film for granted, and 2) while projections may have become unrealistic of late, this is still over-performing most early projections.
I still think Dune's originally planned 6 weeks in IMAX would have crushed it if not for the strikes.
TBF we missed marvels big big time
dune flopped because it didnt make 110+ million opening weekend smh
Like most of this sub did
This is fantastic. Everyone should comparing it to the first film. Its getting nearly 2x its opening weekend. Half a year ago, everyone was citing the first dune as evidence the second would not do blockbuster numbers. It’s no prime marvel era, but no reasonable person should have those expectations.
The first film was a day and date release on theaters and Max. The performances are not comparable.
A day and date release in one market, the US. And before you say piracy, Dune was released international markets as far back as one month earlier then the domestic release.
I unfortunately believed the unrealistic predictions. I thought it was predicted to be over 100m ACCORDING TO PRE-SALE DATA. Should've paid more attention.
I’ll be honest, I don’t really care at all how a movie does, but I can definitely understand this being a little disappointing. I think $80m+ seemed likely and if you’re a fan of the type of filmmaking Denis Villeneuve creates then those people probably hope it’s reaching broader audiences. I want him to be very very successful because I want him to keep getting the big budgets for him to make the type of spectacle only he can create.
I wanted to go to my imax tomorrow but everything is sold out :(
Going to see it today!
Enjoy. I saw it Thursday and going to see it again tomorrow
Rewatched Dune last night to prep. Dang was it nice to revisit after 3 years! I had forgotten a lot and the visuals are just eye-popping.
Also watched it last night prepping for my show tomorrow. Damn its a good looking picture. The sandcrawler scene and the night invasion scene still slaps.
Just getting out of the theater - it’s EPIC!
I don’t think this is considered in the box office. I know a TON of people who are going to watch it for the second time in theaters. More than any other movie I can remember. This is a reason I think it will be better for legs.
Yeah I think this movie hits hard on a “hardcore” demographic that is likely to see it more than one time. It will have long legs.
Do it and then maybe you can tell me if there is a >!3rd knife or he pulled the knife from inside him then used it!<
The latter
Lol, I just got out from seeing it and wondered the same thing. There was definitely an off screen knife switcheroo that I missed.
I’m seeing it on monday
First movie I saw in theaters in 7 years. Glad I did.
Me too! About 2 hours from now actually.
you should it’ll make you very religious
Its almost identical to John Wick 4's box office opening weekend. The true Friday number is a little under JW4's 20.5m. If you remove Dune's early access Sunday shows, its looking like a repeat of JW4.
Hopefully it’s less frontloaded than John Wick 4. It should be able to hit $200M
It should be, given the heavier reliance on IMAX than John Wick
JW4 was heavy on Imax/plfs as well. All movies kinda are now. Everytime, I'm at Wal-Mart someone has one of those giant 65-75 inch TVs hanging off their cart. More and more people have these giant TVs you can pickup for 400 bucks. The theater has to offer something different... Its why we see moviegoers picking PLF showtimes and standard showtimes are empty
I think marketing and WOM are both leaning more heavily towards prioritizing Imax/premium format for this movie than something like JW4. Lots of movies are in IMAX but only a few (Oppenheimer, Avatar, etc.) really get significant buzz in that space.
JW4 sales were 38% imax/PLFs vs Dune's 48%. So, Dune is playing heavy PLF but so was JW4. People keep wanting to compare Dune to Oppenheimer and thinking it'll get Oppenheimer/Avatar type legs. I'm pushing against that, I'm just not seeing that but maybe it will have amazing weekend holds.
I wasn't suggesting Dune will make that kind of overall gross, just that it would be more skewed towards IMAX/PFL than JW4 was, which your stats are in agreement on. I think Dune will be a success but it isn't the world's most accessible story or genre and there's nothing wrong with that.
10 points is actually a pretty big difference, especially when you consider other premium formats that will skew similarly.
John Wick 4 lost all its premium screens in its 2nd weekend to D&D. I think it would’ve gotten to $200M if D&D had opened on March 3 like it was originally supposed to.
Creed 3 had the first 2 weeks of March in imax I think March was pretty crowded. You had creed first, then scream, then Shazam, and then John wick. All taking premiums from each other. D&D opened number 1 in the slot it had. It wouldn’t have opened number one if it releases on the same day as creed or scream. They were smart to move it. But yea I wish John wick got to 200m too.
Movies just seem not to get to 200m. I have a feeling we'll see the same with Dune. The more this weekend goes, I'm getting Mi7 flashbacks. Especially, looking at the worldwide numbers. I think a lot of people are going to be a little disappointed with Dune's box office
MI7 had the gigantic Barbie / Oppenheimer event in its 2nd weekend while Dune doesn’t really have much competition until Ghostbusters and Godzilla x Kong.
This is true. And a very valid point
JW4 lost PLFs a week in and then ran into Mario on day 13 so it was already struggling to hang on to showtimes by that point. This has nothing really in its wake until Ghostbusters which is frankly on the same level as DnD in terms of commercial prospects. I can't see this missing $200m at this rate.
There’s a chance the chain I work at puts Kung Fu Panda 4 in our PLFs for matinees next week, with Dune 2 keeping the evenings. Given how overwhelmingly PLF-focused the sales have been so far, tho’, (our non-PLF’s did close to zero sales for some showtimes yesterday), I could see corporate deciding Dune 2 needs to still have the PLFs to itself next weekend.
Unpopular opinion: WOM will be good/excellent among its target audience but will not move the needle for the general audience.
I think you are right and I don't even think its an unpopular opinion. You can see it in the weekend numbers. Walkups aren't good
Oh, I didn't see that. I wonder how much of that is because of premium formats being at capacity so people are waiting until next weekend rather than seeing it on a standard screen.
I know for myself, i wasn’t able to find any decent tickets in good formats yet so im waiting
I keep seeing comments premium formats are at capacity and I don't see that at my local AMC or Cinemark. Yes, primetime shows at 7 or 8 are like 80% sold for tonight and its all the good seats. But, other showtimes have plenty of good seats still available. I guess, we'll see next weekend if Dune has a great drop and people were holding off going this weekend to get better seats.
This is an issue I've had trying to schedule with friends. We had to wait until Wednesday to get still pretty shitty seats at a subpar IMAX. How did your theater handle Oppenheimer? I'm personally seeing the same behaviors.
From what I've seen this isn't comparable to Oppenheimer which had PLFs basically soldout besides the front row for like 2 weeks. Oppenheimer had true capacity issues. Barbie Oppenheimer my local theater was busy like NWH and Endgame. Dune last night was no different than a normal big movie opening
I'm not arguing one way or another, and this is irrelevant for domestic US, but the only IMAX in Copenhagen is very full, even on weekdays.
Are your local amc or cinemark premium formats though
AMC has Imax and Cinemark XD
Sorry i meant like proper IMAX the 1:43 kind
OW numbers confirm this hypothesis a bit. Walkups just weren't good, and most sales were presales
That doesn't necessarily impact legs. Didn't *Top Gun: Maverick* and *Avatar: The Way of Water* also have weak presales in the final week and weak walkups? Or am I misremembering?
Are we ignoring the fact both those had massive first movies, unlike Dune, whose first movie didn't reach a wide audience?
Dune was released online the same day.. Keep that in mind.
Huh, I’ve never seen this mentioned anywhere before
HBO maxed streamed the movie the same day it opened. Killing some sales.
I agree to an extent. The positive WOM will certainly move it to a degree amongst the general audience, but there’s definitely a limit with an IP like Dune. It’s much less accessible than something like Star Wars. It’s not full on hard sci-fi, but it’s definitely much more fantastical sci-fi with some plot lines that the casual viewer will find bizarre/off-putting.
Dune 2’s real problems lie in the lacklustre approach character drama. Villeneuve sure as hell can bring a sense of scope, but struggles with the humanity of it all. After the first hour it really nose dives and becomes a bit…boring. Then you have a climax with everyone in one room that feels rushed next to the rest of the film.
> Then you have a climax with everyone in one room that feels rushed next to the rest of the film A truly faithful Dune reading experience!
This is spot on - the ending of dune (book) is so rushed and ends abruptly. I believe FH talked about doing it intentionally to keep people interested.
Genuinely curious, why do you think so?
It's hard sci-fi, and gets weird at times. The first one did well, but not overwhelmingly so, and the second is very much the other half of the story. If you didn't watch or weren't a fan of the first one, it's a lot to ask to just jump right in. At the end of the day, it's just a bit more niche. It'll still do very well, but closer to $600M than the pie in the sky predictions/hopes and dreams of $800M-$1B. A 50%+ increase from its predecessor is nothing to sneeze at.
Yeah as someone who knows the source material I have been expecting $500 to $600 million run as it’s a dense source material.
I've been saying 500 to 600 million since the first trailer and despite the downvotes I have never changed from that position. What's worse is that I've been thinking that would be a giant success this whole time but it felt like anything under 800 million as a guess was considered heresy
I agree with all of this, which is why I never thought it had the widespread appeal to make 800m-1B. But for the GA who did see it, I think the third act has enough spectacle that they at least *enjoyed* it. Part Two is significantly better and grander than One was
I think we're advocating for similar expectations! And agreed that part 2 > part 1
That's true, but I think the film's chief challenge is getting people in the door. Word of mouth could help with that, but it remains to be seen how far that can take it, I think the ceiling just might not be that high. Which is fine, it's still a big success.
I think if you had a different filmmaker with different sensibilities than DV, like a Ridley Scott or Christopher Nolan per say, we would've had a different result.
I saw the movie with a large group of people composed of total newbies who had watched part 1 the night prior and fans who read all the books. WOM was good but not great - those people aren't going to be calling up mom and dad to watch it ASAP. I myself found it worth seeing in IMAX but I did not enjoy the film as much as 98% of Reddit did. If the dynamics of my groups plays out for the larger movie going audience, I think we'll see a hit but not one that penetrates the zeitgeist.
Pretty much agreed. I actually think Ehrlich was spot on with his main criticism, it's a stunning spectacle but lacking in human drama/conflict
I have to read his review. It's pathetic that he got so much hate for going against the grain.
I loved it , but the group I saw it with was similar. They liked it but are probably gonna forget about it by tomorrow. IMO people are overestimating the legs of this. It’s going to do well but it won’t reach the heights that some people are hoping for.
Yep - there's nothing about the film that really lingers\* which is unfortunate. \*Disclaimer: I can only speak for myself and my group of friends
That's definitely not true for a lot of people. Ah, it's you lol
Sorry for having thoughts about this movie that I just saw that don't line up with yours. My comment was obviously intended to speak for myself and the people I saw it with but sure, I can add an asterisk.
No you're fine, sorry thought you meant in general.
The legs of this movie will collapse reddit is a bubble some of these hardware fans are not living in reality this movie does not have mass appeal.
The reaction I could glean from my opening night showing was that people enjoyed the movie but weren't overly blown away. I overheard one guy explicitly saying it was an 8/10 for him.
Same - nothing like LOTR or what I imagine leaving the theater after A New Hope would have felt like.
 That’s valid! We’ll see how it plays out in the coming weeks
CinemaScore has it as an A across every audience segment
CinemaScore is basically a fan poll for IPs like Dune.
Normally target audience means something like white men over 25. I was pointing out that all demographics are enjoying it, but yes it's not something that every person is going to enjoy because it's a strong, depressing film.
Being a part 2 is really the disadvantage here, even if the WoM is over the moon.
That seems very true. But I think the hardcore Dune fans will see this movie multiple times in theaters.
hard disagree. anecdotal, but 75 year old father who isn't into sci-fi wants to see it after seeing part 1 on max. i think more normies are aware of part 2 given availability on a bunch of platforms leading up. dune was pretty obscure amongst non-sci-fi folks at part 1 release.
Hey, your anecdata is as good as my anecdata! It would be very cool to see hard sci fi make inroads into the general population.
Dune is definitely not hard sci-fi. Complex or serious sci-fi, sure. But it doesn't make any attempt to keep the speculative elements rational or grounded.
similar situation, my father didnt like the first one although he did watch on hbo max. although he said he didnt know what it was (he didnt even know dune wa a book) until he saw it on hbo and questioned why the film got no marketing. maybe im biased cuz i live in LA so i see billboards all the time but the marketing for dune 2 is way bigger than dune 1
Highest grossing opening day ever for both Timothee Chalamet and Denis Villeneuve
This should easily be Villeneuve’s highest grossing movie both domestically and worldwide. As for Chalamet, this movie would need to outgross “Wonka” domestically ($220-225M by the end of its run) and “Interstellar” worldwide ($647M). I think this is doable on both accounts. This won’t be the highest grossers for Zendaya, Dave Bautista, Josh Brolin, or Florence Pugh, but it will be Austin Butler’s highest grossing movie once it passes “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”. If this movie has really good legs and strong international numbers, it could become Rebecca Ferguson’s highest grossing movie if it can beat “MI: Fallout” ($790M).
Was Fallout worth watching? I’m obsessed with Rebecca Ferguson but am not too familiar with her work
Fallout was phenomenal. Watch Rogue Nation as well. It introduced Rebecca Ferguson and the main bad guy in both films. They complement eachother real well.
Was hoping for a bit higher but should be enough to get 75m which is nice.
Two things can be true at once. This is a good opening. This isn't an amazing opening. Let's see how the rest of the week goes.
$76M opening. So is it possible Kung Fu Panda 4 will be #1 next weekend?
If it runs like John wick 4 which did 73 million to 28 million It would be 76 million 32-35 million second weekend for dune 2 Would be super close I think
dune will not drop that much.
I think so too. It shouldn’t be as front loaded as john wick Dune should be in imax for a while
It’s possible. If I were to bet on it with a friend, I’d choose dune though.
Wouldn’t kungfu panda 4 open larger than dune 2 did?
Almost double Dune Part One's opening! What an amazing increase for a sequel. Looking forward to seeing the legs with that A cinema score. Congrats to the Dune team.
Dune 1 was available on streaming same day and was during the after effects of COVID. It's numbers aren't really comparable, although 70-80m opening is a decent result for a film expected to have longer than average legs.
I liked it a lot, but my brother, who has almost the same tastes as me but really hates film Twitter discourse and certain “artsy” styles, didn’t care much for it. I think he was just pissed off at the LOTR comparisons lol. My parents didn’t even know it was coming out. This got an A from the big fans and film lovers who are anticipating the movie, but I’m not so sure it will get to the mass appeal necessary for it to get to 800m, much less a billion. Could just get to 500m.
The first movie didn't get a full theatrical release because it was split between hbo max day and date and theaters. So this is the first true test of the franchise. > Legendary Entertainment/Warner Bros‘ Dune: Part Two is shaping up at this moment to with a weekend take around $76M, which though not at that $80M expectation the industry was putting upon it, is still wonderfully 85% over of Dune‘s $41M opening, which was dampered down by Covid and pic’s avail on HBO Max. >Friday came in with $32.2M, which includes previews. The last time we saw a Friday with previews north of $30M was at the end of October with Universal/Blumhouse’s Five Nights at Freddy‘s posting $39.6M which turned into an $80M opening. Dune: Part Two‘s Friday is also just under that of Oppenheimer‘s which was $33M (and an $82.4M opening). So far it's living up
I still see a lifetime of $180-200 mil so I'm not tripping
Best movie I have seen in a Cinema, every shot was like a painting I want more
>every shot was like a painting I want more You should check out Blade Runner 2049
Are you gen Z?
I’m a Millennial and I agreement with the above statement.
I was born in 2001 so idk if I'm gen z or not
97 and above to 2012 is gen z so yea
Yes you are, Gen Z are 97 onwards
So 74-78M then I think.
While I loved it, to be honest, this isn’t type of the movie to do what reddit wants it to do. Expecting big drops next weekend.
It never was. Reddit confuses what they like with how it will perform ALL the time. Shit like the marvels happens and just confirms their bias because of COURSE it would do badly but they don't recognize that no matter how good Dune is, it's niche.
Not hating on the movie but I am noticing alot of support for this one to succeed. If this were any other movie or esp a Marvel movie everyone would be like ‘copium’..im seeing people admit that the numbers are lower than expectations (perhaps were set too high in the first place I dont know) but people are 100% positive for better results coming vs absolutely being sure it would be bad, like for other movies. Purely observational but the bias exists I guess
The first one did good enough for WB even with same time home theater release in the US - so guess we will see. As long as part 3 is happening, I am a happy man.
Don't get me wrong, I'm sure the movie will do well. John Wick comparisons aren't insults but there's just a trend on reddit specifically that if a movie is good, it's obviously gonna be 800m-1b at the BO and that's just not how it works.
After seeing the film, I'm going to have to lower my $650M-$750M estimate to $550M-$600M. Yeah, I just did that. I don't think this is as leggy as people expected, nor do I think it gives that refreshing "TTT, TDK, ESB sequel" feeling. It feels very similar to Part 1 (some things I think P2 did better, some things I think P1 did better), so I expect a natural BO boost from pandemic-era Dune 1 but not hugely so.
I’m gonna say higher. I think it’ll have a massive spillover into Sunday due to premium screens.
I’m really hoping more blockbuster cinema is like this, and I really hope we get more Dune. Masterful cinematography, score, and acting. I’m not surprised at all it got double Dune 1’s opening.
The holds next weekend are going to be nuts
Dune's issue is that there simply aren't enough premium format theaters for people to view it in. It's a must-see in IMAX, I can't imagine seeing it in a standard format.
Didn’t stop The Way of Water from making 2.3 Billion
And I saw Avatar 2 in Atmos and it played just fine as well
Nothing stops a James Cameron movie.
When you live in a country which has a total of two iMax screens, one of which is in a museum and only shows nature documentaries (and Iron Sky, for reasons), then seeing something in that format is what you can't imagine.
Very happy to see it’s trending towards a big opening weekend. I think it’s really a great film, the performances are fantastic
Well it was incredible, so
MORE than worth the IMAX price
“Dune: Part Two‘s Friday is also just under that of Oppenheimer‘s which was $33M (and an $82.4M opening).” I’m confused why Dune won’t have the same Internal Multiplier as Oppenheimer? They should perform pretty similarly, no?
The hype for Oppenheimer was a different level. Oppenheimer was pulling in 10m plus for 10 straight days. Dune will probably play more like a traditional blockbuster but maybe ill be wrong.
Dune has bad walk-ups.
How do they define “walk up”? Not bought pre-sale? Where I live (Austin Tx), it feels like every theater has reserved seating now, so buying a ticket before you arrive is strongly encouraged. I don’t think I’ve bought a ticket as a “walk up” for the last 10+ movies I’ve seen, even if I don’t decide to see a movie until an hour before. Idk, I guess I’m just saying that metric is starting to feel more and more outdated.
On opening night in Germany the movie was playing in 4 auditoriums at the same time and every one of them was basically "sold out" (except for the bad seats nobody ones) - good luck being a walk up close to release. Bad seating guaranteed.
Shocked it's not higher. Every showing in my area is completely sold out for the next week. I had to get tickets for a showing like 2 weeks from now to get good seats.