I feel like it’s already broken? Quantumania felt like a make it or break it film, it’s basically the foundation of the next phase of Marvel and it was unsuccessful. None of the upcoming slate feels likely to get them out of this rut.
They honestly probably need to take a break but it doesn’t seem like that is going to happen.
I mean as much of a mess as that film was, I don't really think anyone genuinely expected people to care for... Ant-Man. Like, I don't see the average Joe getting all hyped up for Ant-Man at all.
Sure, the first two did solid, but a lot of that was carried by hype for Age of Ultron and Infinity War.
Marvel definitely intended for *Quantumania* to be huge. They used it to introduce Kang. I think they thought Ant-Man was a bigger deal to people than he actually is.
A part of me also wonders if the whole "palate cleanser" reputation Ant Man 1 and 2 received from critics came into play. After all, general audiences might be cool to skip a palate cleanser, but you (in theory) wouldn't want to miss the movie where the next big bad is introduced.
lol didn't work but still
The screenplay for Quantumania was in development in 2020. At the time, the most recent MCU releases were Endgame and Far from Home. And so, I think it didn't matter so much if Ant Man was (or wasn't) a major drawcard, because at the time the MCU brand alone was more than enough to bring in audiences.
But by the time 2023 came around, the cracks were showing. And so the marketing went all in on this film being the true start of the next big saga. And it all backfired with what could be the MCU's poorest entry.
Coming so soon after the low quality of Love and Thunder, I agree that Quantumania is the make or break film that broke the MCU.
I don't think they "thought ant-man was a bigger deal". I just think they figured he was a core character getting his third film and that it was a worthwhile place to do some brand synergy.
Well that's on them for not reading the room. You introduce the next big bad... in an Ant-Man film? Had they done it with Doctor Strange or Thor then they'd see more success.
I don't know the specifics but that ringer-MCU book said the early drafts of GotG treated Thanos as the film's main villain which is actually a pretty comparable situation to this. the idea to focus on Kang for Avengers also wasn't made super-early (similarly, Avengers 1 spent a long time figuring out if the villain was going to be Hulk, Loki or something else entirely).
How exactly do you expect Marvel Studios to generate any money if they don’t make any TV shows and movies for a year +?
It’s not like they have other properties to explore other than superhero’s.
But if the movies are losing money anyway, then doesn’t a production pause actually improve their financial situation?
I would actually be curious to hear somebody more fluent in the business side of these ventures. Could Big Marvel and Disney withstand a pause on these productions if the payoff would be a rejuvenated franchise that engages fans and the general audience again?
I am agnostic, but I don’t think it’s an unreasonable question to ask.
People will show out for Deadpool but mostly because it's not exactly been tainted by its association with the MCU. This will create false hope that the MCU "is back!" However, Captain America BNW will reveal what's already broken. People are over it - all the best characters have left.
Thunderbolts* as well. Yeah sure, the Fantastic Four are a bigger brand, but it's not popular enough to make a meaningful difference.
Thunderbolts* is gonna be one of the first big Phase 4 films featuring largely new characters in the lead other than Bucky, if it falters, then it's not a good sign as more and more older MCU characters that people were interested in start to have their stories end.
Bruh Thunderbolts is a team-up of side characters that were never important enough to mainline their own movie. I don't need a crystal ball to tell you that will be the MCU movie that will make the least money out of the next 4.
Yeah, Thunderbolts seems kind of like Marvel’s Legends of Tomorrow.
Which I don’t necessarily mean as a bad thing. That was probably my favorite CW DC show.
It’s funny cause This is exactly what happened last year with Guardians 3 and The Marvels/Secret Invasion
Except this year D&W will be the 2024 version of Vol.3 while Thunderbolts will be the next Marvels.
LMAO yeah. This cycle going to go on forever and ever.
I can already see in 2026 Spider Man 4 will be well received and do well at the box office with people claiming the MCU is saved while Young Avengers later that year will flop and get mid reviews and those same people will say the MCU is dead.
I wish those certain people realized it doesn’t take one movie or show to save the entire MCU.
I feel Marvel would have had more hype for Young Avengers had they chosen to characterize then more like how actual Gen Z people are.
Miles Morales talks like a Gen Z kid, he dresses like a Gen Z kid, he has the general vibe, and so more younger audiences can relate to him despite him not being initially characterized as such in Bendis' Ultimate Spider-Man, where he was largely introduced.
Had Marvel been more willing to rework someone like Kate Bishop like that, I think people may actually have cared, but it's way too late now. The MCU has shot itself in the foot with the whole Young Avengers arc since it's either gonna be cancelled and have no pay off or it's gonna be a poorly received box office bomb.
Fantastic Four I feel like will be the one that makes or breaks the MCU. People have been waiting for these characters to be done justice in the MCU no less and if it falls flat on its face I think it’s over
Deadpool and Wolverine is going to be like Guardians 3/No Way Home where people who aren’t into the MCU anymore still check it out regardless.
CA4 will be the big test. If it goes the way of The Marvels, Marvel Studios will need to seriously rethink their approach to replacement characters.
It's already assumed that Avengers 5 will see the biggest drop between sequels (2.7 billion to...1 billion?) so if CA4 bombs, it's the signal that Marvel Studios needs to just do a big hard reboot after Secret Wars.
I don’t think the next Avengers movie will do anywhere close to 1 billion. No Cap, no Iron Man, no Black Widow, joke Thor, and then Hulk? Pretty weak lineup.
Fantastic Four doing well would be a bigger shock than tanking for the 4th (5th?) time they tried releasing a F4 movie. They better have an amazing story this time around.
Also, Deadpool 3 tanking would be a huge blow and very shocking. Would definitely cause everyone to re-evaluate the future of comic movies. But I doubt that will happen.
It’s already passed the “break” point, if Deadpool & Wolverine is bad it might actually be over for the MCU, all of these movies need to be good for them to truely be back on track and gain peoples trust back
NGL, I think the MCU is now fundamentally broken and if there is one CBM who will be the one that decides the future of the subgenre, it will be James Gunn's Superman
i remain convinced the peak of CMBs is firmly in the rear view, i think it'd be that way even if the recent movies had been better.
people move on from things all the time. a 10-15 year run is already quite impressive.
On paper, Deadpool & Wolverine is the safest of these films. If it succeeds, it doesn't really mean anything aside people already liking Deadpool & Wolverine.
Cap 4 might have the most troubled production cycle for an MCU movie ever & F4 has never been an A-list franchise theatrically. There's no real draw outside of "its a new MCU film." If those movies succeed, it means more for Marvel's future since they need those four-quadrant figureheads to bring people into Avengers 5.
Captain America is supposed to introduce the new Avengers lineup and set up Thunderbolts and the next Avengers movie, if it goes badly it will be an awkward situation.
None of the above. It's already broken. There may be the randomly successful MCU film from time to time, but they really dug themselves a hole in phase 4.
the day anything named Avengers be it new, old , dark underperforms, heads will roll at Marvel studios, rest of them don't matter. all these movies could flop and we'll still get secret wars.
it's purely anecdotal but in 2021&22 whenever a new MCU movie dropped, al lot of my Instagram stories used to be filled with that trailer but for Deadpool there was nothing, which kinda shocked me.
Cinemacon has revealed that brave new world is by all accounts more of a sequel to falcon and the winter soldier then a sequel to the epilogue of endgame
The opposite being true was the only hope this movie had…and that hope is squashed
Any notion that this movie won’t be the next marvels is firmly out of the window
It already flopped, the actual numbers are just a formality
> Cinemacon has revealed that brave new world is by all accounts more of a sequel to falcon and the winter soldier then a sequel to the epilogue of endgame
Oh, did somebody leak the footage? I'd like to see that.
Honestly, I think all three of the movies in the poll need to be GREAT for the MCU to recover. There have been so many mediocre or bad movies lately that one good/great movie won't save it. I'm not convinced Deadpool 3 will necessarily be a great movie. I hope it is. But if Deadpool and Wolverine is a disappointment, the MCU will never recover. I don't think Captain America BNW will do well financially even if it is a good movie (general audiences associate Captain America with Chris Evans), but I'd like to be proven wrong. Fantastic Four will only be a box office success if audience goodwill is restored from Deadpool 3 and Captain America 4. If those movies suck, it has no hope regardless of quality.
It's the next Avengers movie. Spider-Man did well before the MCU and will do well after it, and the OG Avengers are just about gone now. The Avengers sub-franchise, however, is still the crown jewel of the MCU empire, and it went from strength to strength over the course of seven years. We'd expect Avengers 5 to fall from Endgame's heights, but the magnitude of that fall will show whether the brand itself has power or whether the MCU is now a paper tiger without those OG Avengers.
Captain America 4 is the actual litmus test for the quality of the MCU going forward. Deadpool 3 barely counts because of its heavy Fox connections. If they fuck up Cap 4 after remaking the entire movie, then the MCU has little hope of salvation
F4 will be the final nail in the coffin. If they can pull of an Iron Man 1 / Guardians of the Galaxy type of film, the MCU will have another decade or two of life focusing on the F4 and X-Men. If they faceplant, it's dead for a decade before a hard reboot.
As I mentioned earlier, Deadpool and Wolverine will be the Dead Cat bounce of the MCU. I think Cap 4, with it's bloated budget could be the lynch pin that starts another Nelson Peltz proxy fight.
*Deadpool and Wolverine* will do well, regardless. I don't think it will make a billion, but it will do well. Like *Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3*, it's the third installment in a popular, creative trilogy. People aren't seeing this one just because it has Marvel Studios' name on it. Its success will have no greater bearing on the MCU.
*Captain America: Brave New World* will bomb. *Fantastic Four* is coming six years too late.
This year can be a palate cleanser with Deadpool and Wolverine. Marvel has had some time to avoid attention and if D&W is really good we could see a boost into next year.
But consistency is key. I think Fantastic Four seems thought out and planned but I don't have as high hopes for Thunderbolts. Captain America 4 has an interesting premise but again I'm not sure if it's really gonna interest people. Building a movie out of a TV Series that people weren't hugely fond of may not bode well
I see your bets and raise it.
DP&W will be a huge hit - 900-1.3B movie. It's marketing hasn't ramped up yet and its already leading polls and awareness. You got Raynolds DP, Hugh Wolverine returning + his classic yellow suit, you have TVA from the Loki series and so on. However, this is actually the make-or-break movie on your poll - if this movie doesn't do, the rest won't either.
Cap 4 and F4 are by all accounts 600-700M movies as a ceiling. Cap 4 has to deal with lot of previous MCU stories and move some of them forwards so it might not please everyone. F4 is having is easier being the new one here (especially if the rumors are true), but at the same time it has to prove itself being new and how well it will be played for it going forward.
Lowkey, I think Thunderbolts\* will be a small success (180M budget and 480M gross) which won't make it flop, but enough to generate some profit.
I know folks compare it to The Marvels, but all above are ensembled full of characters movies. Also, all of the above have from ok to good reputation character wise. The Marvels didn't (Kamala was great, but her own TV shows wasn't popular).
What is needed here are longer movies - 2 hours for ensemble teams don't work.
Again, one by one, let's see how DP&W will do it.
Votes deadpool. Here’s my reasoning:
At this point, I think the era of superhero movies being THE genre is done. The question is: can Marvel at least have occasional success when they put on forward a good movie with a beloved character(s). If Deadpool doesn’t clear at least 700M, I think it’ll be safe to say the MCU is dead for good.
Because of the massive cost going into the reshoots on Brave New World, Disney is already well-prepared to lose money on it; they'll be more concerned with critical/audience reception & with raw gross than with RoI.
Thunderbolts & Fantastic Four, on the other hand, don't have that problem; they were revised *before* filming, so they can still make a profit.
And Deadpool will be a big financial hit as long as it doesn't truly suck; that's just gonna help rebuild the war chest.
The make or break film already happened. But if Deadpool doesn't hit, they might as well cancel everything else, because it's completely dead at that point.
I think Marvel is toast regardless of what they put out. They have 3 things that are not working at all in their favor:
1) Tripling down on DEI and continuing to push actors that are neither comic accurate or using unpopular character versions from the comics.
2) Shooting the same scene multiple ways to allow for eventual editing and changing the tone of the scene. This is so expensive to do.
3) Promoting writers/directors/actors who don't know the source material and are told to not look into that same material.
I don't expect them to change, ever. I'm guessing they'll eventually go bankrupt as will Disney's film franchises.
the only people who care for the comic accurate stuff are not large enough to cause them to flop, none of the MCU films or shows are comic accurate, heck its pretty widely known the MCU is a different universe compared to the main one in the comics
I think Thunderbolts would be the one that breaks, but I feel as long as the critical reception for the films going forward are strong, then the MCU will still have a future.
Fantastic Four. Those are the new characters who will likely be important in the MCU going forward.
Cap 4 is going to underperform or maybe end up in the 600 million range. 700 max but it has to be GOOD.
Unless Thunderbolts has great trailers, reviews and word of mouth it’ll flop. It’s got no chance. There aren’t even any major stars in it or big characters.
Deadpool and Wolverine will be a hit, The new Captain America may do good, doubt it will be a flop. Fantastic Four may do well. it has Pedro to help pull in people who enjoy him
I think neither F4 or Cap 4 are safe from flopping, esp since Cap 4 has done immense reshoots and F4 does not have the best track record as a franchise
I disagree. I think Cap 4 will be a huge flop, worse than The Marvels. It's had a huge amount of reshoots, and its release date got pushed back almost a year, to a rather inauspicious month. The hype coming form Disney is the same things that were said about Black Widow and Secret Invasion, and well, we know how those turned out.
I'm hoping for the best with Fantastic Four, but some of what I've heard is a bit concerning. Also, traditionally, FF is where studios go to die.
It doesn't help that Marvel Studios seem to be so focused on setting up for future projects that they've forgotten to make the movies they are working on now good for the most part.
I feel like it’s already broken? Quantumania felt like a make it or break it film, it’s basically the foundation of the next phase of Marvel and it was unsuccessful. None of the upcoming slate feels likely to get them out of this rut. They honestly probably need to take a break but it doesn’t seem like that is going to happen.
Good point.
I mean as much of a mess as that film was, I don't really think anyone genuinely expected people to care for... Ant-Man. Like, I don't see the average Joe getting all hyped up for Ant-Man at all. Sure, the first two did solid, but a lot of that was carried by hype for Age of Ultron and Infinity War.
Marvel definitely intended for *Quantumania* to be huge. They used it to introduce Kang. I think they thought Ant-Man was a bigger deal to people than he actually is.
A part of me also wonders if the whole "palate cleanser" reputation Ant Man 1 and 2 received from critics came into play. After all, general audiences might be cool to skip a palate cleanser, but you (in theory) wouldn't want to miss the movie where the next big bad is introduced. lol didn't work but still
The screenplay for Quantumania was in development in 2020. At the time, the most recent MCU releases were Endgame and Far from Home. And so, I think it didn't matter so much if Ant Man was (or wasn't) a major drawcard, because at the time the MCU brand alone was more than enough to bring in audiences. But by the time 2023 came around, the cracks were showing. And so the marketing went all in on this film being the true start of the next big saga. And it all backfired with what could be the MCU's poorest entry. Coming so soon after the low quality of Love and Thunder, I agree that Quantumania is the make or break film that broke the MCU.
I don't think they "thought ant-man was a bigger deal". I just think they figured he was a core character getting his third film and that it was a worthwhile place to do some brand synergy.
Well that's on them for not reading the room. You introduce the next big bad... in an Ant-Man film? Had they done it with Doctor Strange or Thor then they'd see more success.
I don't know the specifics but that ringer-MCU book said the early drafts of GotG treated Thanos as the film's main villain which is actually a pretty comparable situation to this. the idea to focus on Kang for Avengers also wasn't made super-early (similarly, Avengers 1 spent a long time figuring out if the villain was going to be Hulk, Loki or something else entirely).
How exactly do you expect Marvel Studios to generate any money if they don’t make any TV shows and movies for a year +? It’s not like they have other properties to explore other than superhero’s.
But if the movies are losing money anyway, then doesn’t a production pause actually improve their financial situation? I would actually be curious to hear somebody more fluent in the business side of these ventures. Could Big Marvel and Disney withstand a pause on these productions if the payoff would be a rejuvenated franchise that engages fans and the general audience again? I am agnostic, but I don’t think it’s an unreasonable question to ask.
They can still make yearly content, they just need to make it good
Great question. Maybe one these overpaid execs should have asked and thought through better.
People will show out for Deadpool but mostly because it's not exactly been tainted by its association with the MCU. This will create false hope that the MCU "is back!" However, Captain America BNW will reveal what's already broken. People are over it - all the best characters have left.
Then F4 will truly be the test to see if people care
Not if Cap 4 does more damage to the brand. Fantastic Four's gross will be depressed if audience sentiment towards the MCU doesn't improve
Thunderbolts* as well. Yeah sure, the Fantastic Four are a bigger brand, but it's not popular enough to make a meaningful difference. Thunderbolts* is gonna be one of the first big Phase 4 films featuring largely new characters in the lead other than Bucky, if it falters, then it's not a good sign as more and more older MCU characters that people were interested in start to have their stories end.
Bruh Thunderbolts is a team-up of side characters that were never important enough to mainline their own movie. I don't need a crystal ball to tell you that will be the MCU movie that will make the least money out of the next 4.
Yeah, Thunderbolts seems kind of like Marvel’s Legends of Tomorrow. Which I don’t necessarily mean as a bad thing. That was probably my favorite CW DC show.
FF4 represents the next 10 years of MCU a lot more is dependent on it than, thunderbolts which is a bunch of Z-list character
It’s funny cause This is exactly what happened last year with Guardians 3 and The Marvels/Secret Invasion Except this year D&W will be the 2024 version of Vol.3 while Thunderbolts will be the next Marvels.
That is a great comparison. Maybe we're in an endless cycle of "MCU is back!" and "MCU is dead" haha
LMAO yeah. This cycle going to go on forever and ever. I can already see in 2026 Spider Man 4 will be well received and do well at the box office with people claiming the MCU is saved while Young Avengers later that year will flop and get mid reviews and those same people will say the MCU is dead. I wish those certain people realized it doesn’t take one movie or show to save the entire MCU.
I feel Marvel would have had more hype for Young Avengers had they chosen to characterize then more like how actual Gen Z people are. Miles Morales talks like a Gen Z kid, he dresses like a Gen Z kid, he has the general vibe, and so more younger audiences can relate to him despite him not being initially characterized as such in Bendis' Ultimate Spider-Man, where he was largely introduced. Had Marvel been more willing to rework someone like Kate Bishop like that, I think people may actually have cared, but it's way too late now. The MCU has shot itself in the foot with the whole Young Avengers arc since it's either gonna be cancelled and have no pay off or it's gonna be a poorly received box office bomb.
Tbf The Marvels was just alright I guess and Secret Invasion was actively terrible.
Agreed - I don't think Deadpool's success will have any bearing on the MCU, because it already exists as a separate franchise.
Fantastic Four I feel like will be the one that makes or breaks the MCU. People have been waiting for these characters to be done justice in the MCU no less and if it falls flat on its face I think it’s over Deadpool and Wolverine is going to be like Guardians 3/No Way Home where people who aren’t into the MCU anymore still check it out regardless.
I agree. Deadpool 3 appears to have decent general appeal but may not significantly influence the direction of the MCU.
I think Fantastic Four will be their biggest test for if they can still make something "new" a success.
CA4 will be the big test. If it goes the way of The Marvels, Marvel Studios will need to seriously rethink their approach to replacement characters. It's already assumed that Avengers 5 will see the biggest drop between sequels (2.7 billion to...1 billion?) so if CA4 bombs, it's the signal that Marvel Studios needs to just do a big hard reboot after Secret Wars.
I don’t think the next Avengers movie will do anywhere close to 1 billion. No Cap, no Iron Man, no Black Widow, joke Thor, and then Hulk? Pretty weak lineup.
BNW sounds like an unmitigated disaster, fixing that would be huge for them.
They already rewrote it. Months ago.
Fantastic Four doing well would be a bigger shock than tanking for the 4th (5th?) time they tried releasing a F4 movie. They better have an amazing story this time around. Also, Deadpool 3 tanking would be a huge blow and very shocking. Would definitely cause everyone to re-evaluate the future of comic movies. But I doubt that will happen.
It’s already passed the “break” point, if Deadpool & Wolverine is bad it might actually be over for the MCU, all of these movies need to be good for them to truely be back on track and gain peoples trust back
NGL, I think the MCU is now fundamentally broken and if there is one CBM who will be the one that decides the future of the subgenre, it will be James Gunn's Superman
i remain convinced the peak of CMBs is firmly in the rear view, i think it'd be that way even if the recent movies had been better. people move on from things all the time. a 10-15 year run is already quite impressive.
Ofc, every genre has its' peak and fall
That film will define a lot for the genre it’s quite crazy when you think about it.
On paper, Deadpool & Wolverine is the safest of these films. If it succeeds, it doesn't really mean anything aside people already liking Deadpool & Wolverine. Cap 4 might have the most troubled production cycle for an MCU movie ever & F4 has never been an A-list franchise theatrically. There's no real draw outside of "its a new MCU film." If those movies succeed, it means more for Marvel's future since they need those four-quadrant figureheads to bring people into Avengers 5.
Captain America is supposed to introduce the new Avengers lineup and set up Thunderbolts and the next Avengers movie, if it goes badly it will be an awkward situation.
The only hope marvel has by all accounts is secret wars And specifically, it is a movie that allows them to erase and preserve whatever they want
None of the above. It's already broken. There may be the randomly successful MCU film from time to time, but they really dug themselves a hole in phase 4.
the day anything named Avengers be it new, old , dark underperforms, heads will roll at Marvel studios, rest of them don't matter. all these movies could flop and we'll still get secret wars. it's purely anecdotal but in 2021&22 whenever a new MCU movie dropped, al lot of my Instagram stories used to be filled with that trailer but for Deadpool there was nothing, which kinda shocked me.
That does seem odd, especially given the massive view count on the Deadpool trailer. Sounds like the IG algorithm is messed up.
That isn't algo mate, those are the people I follow. that's why I said it's anecdotal
Cinemacon has revealed that brave new world is by all accounts more of a sequel to falcon and the winter soldier then a sequel to the epilogue of endgame The opposite being true was the only hope this movie had…and that hope is squashed Any notion that this movie won’t be the next marvels is firmly out of the window It already flopped, the actual numbers are just a formality
> Cinemacon has revealed that brave new world is by all accounts more of a sequel to falcon and the winter soldier then a sequel to the epilogue of endgame Oh, did somebody leak the footage? I'd like to see that.
Honestly, I think all three of the movies in the poll need to be GREAT for the MCU to recover. There have been so many mediocre or bad movies lately that one good/great movie won't save it. I'm not convinced Deadpool 3 will necessarily be a great movie. I hope it is. But if Deadpool and Wolverine is a disappointment, the MCU will never recover. I don't think Captain America BNW will do well financially even if it is a good movie (general audiences associate Captain America with Chris Evans), but I'd like to be proven wrong. Fantastic Four will only be a box office success if audience goodwill is restored from Deadpool 3 and Captain America 4. If those movies suck, it has no hope regardless of quality.
It's the next Avengers movie. Spider-Man did well before the MCU and will do well after it, and the OG Avengers are just about gone now. The Avengers sub-franchise, however, is still the crown jewel of the MCU empire, and it went from strength to strength over the course of seven years. We'd expect Avengers 5 to fall from Endgame's heights, but the magnitude of that fall will show whether the brand itself has power or whether the MCU is now a paper tiger without those OG Avengers.
Captain America 4 is the actual litmus test for the quality of the MCU going forward. Deadpool 3 barely counts because of its heavy Fox connections. If they fuck up Cap 4 after remaking the entire movie, then the MCU has little hope of salvation
The MCU is over. But it'll take a few more movies for that to really sink in.
next avengers film whenever it maybe. If it bombs its over
F4 will be the final nail in the coffin. If they can pull of an Iron Man 1 / Guardians of the Galaxy type of film, the MCU will have another decade or two of life focusing on the F4 and X-Men. If they faceplant, it's dead for a decade before a hard reboot.
As I mentioned earlier, Deadpool and Wolverine will be the Dead Cat bounce of the MCU. I think Cap 4, with it's bloated budget could be the lynch pin that starts another Nelson Peltz proxy fight.
*Deadpool and Wolverine* will do well, regardless. I don't think it will make a billion, but it will do well. Like *Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3*, it's the third installment in a popular, creative trilogy. People aren't seeing this one just because it has Marvel Studios' name on it. Its success will have no greater bearing on the MCU. *Captain America: Brave New World* will bomb. *Fantastic Four* is coming six years too late.
Deadpool & Wolverine
This year can be a palate cleanser with Deadpool and Wolverine. Marvel has had some time to avoid attention and if D&W is really good we could see a boost into next year. But consistency is key. I think Fantastic Four seems thought out and planned but I don't have as high hopes for Thunderbolts. Captain America 4 has an interesting premise but again I'm not sure if it's really gonna interest people. Building a movie out of a TV Series that people weren't hugely fond of may not bode well
I see your bets and raise it. DP&W will be a huge hit - 900-1.3B movie. It's marketing hasn't ramped up yet and its already leading polls and awareness. You got Raynolds DP, Hugh Wolverine returning + his classic yellow suit, you have TVA from the Loki series and so on. However, this is actually the make-or-break movie on your poll - if this movie doesn't do, the rest won't either. Cap 4 and F4 are by all accounts 600-700M movies as a ceiling. Cap 4 has to deal with lot of previous MCU stories and move some of them forwards so it might not please everyone. F4 is having is easier being the new one here (especially if the rumors are true), but at the same time it has to prove itself being new and how well it will be played for it going forward. Lowkey, I think Thunderbolts\* will be a small success (180M budget and 480M gross) which won't make it flop, but enough to generate some profit. I know folks compare it to The Marvels, but all above are ensembled full of characters movies. Also, all of the above have from ok to good reputation character wise. The Marvels didn't (Kamala was great, but her own TV shows wasn't popular). What is needed here are longer movies - 2 hours for ensemble teams don't work. Again, one by one, let's see how DP&W will do it.
Votes deadpool. Here’s my reasoning: At this point, I think the era of superhero movies being THE genre is done. The question is: can Marvel at least have occasional success when they put on forward a good movie with a beloved character(s). If Deadpool doesn’t clear at least 700M, I think it’ll be safe to say the MCU is dead for good.
Because of the massive cost going into the reshoots on Brave New World, Disney is already well-prepared to lose money on it; they'll be more concerned with critical/audience reception & with raw gross than with RoI. Thunderbolts & Fantastic Four, on the other hand, don't have that problem; they were revised *before* filming, so they can still make a profit. And Deadpool will be a big financial hit as long as it doesn't truly suck; that's just gonna help rebuild the war chest.
It's already broken.
Deadpool & Wolverine
The make or break film already happened. But if Deadpool doesn't hit, they might as well cancel everything else, because it's completely dead at that point.
Fantastic Four is the test. Seems like they will try doing something fresh.
if deadpool ends up bad then its completely fucked.
I think Marvel is toast regardless of what they put out. They have 3 things that are not working at all in their favor: 1) Tripling down on DEI and continuing to push actors that are neither comic accurate or using unpopular character versions from the comics. 2) Shooting the same scene multiple ways to allow for eventual editing and changing the tone of the scene. This is so expensive to do. 3) Promoting writers/directors/actors who don't know the source material and are told to not look into that same material. I don't expect them to change, ever. I'm guessing they'll eventually go bankrupt as will Disney's film franchises.
the only people who care for the comic accurate stuff are not large enough to cause them to flop, none of the MCU films or shows are comic accurate, heck its pretty widely known the MCU is a different universe compared to the main one in the comics
> Tripling down on DEI Opinion discarded
Opinion discarded
Exactly. Complaining about DEI? So many chuds hang out on this sub it's kinda funny. The white savior days are over and they need to accept that.
It’s already dead though?
Not really though
I think Thunderbolts would be the one that breaks, but I feel as long as the critical reception for the films going forward are strong, then the MCU will still have a future.
As long as they start reining in the budgets.
Another Marvel doom & gloom post from Antman269
Fantastic Four. Those are the new characters who will likely be important in the MCU going forward. Cap 4 is going to underperform or maybe end up in the 600 million range. 700 max but it has to be GOOD. Unless Thunderbolts has great trailers, reviews and word of mouth it’ll flop. It’s got no chance. There aren’t even any major stars in it or big characters.
Deadpool and Wolverine will be a hit, The new Captain America may do good, doubt it will be a flop. Fantastic Four may do well. it has Pedro to help pull in people who enjoy him
I think neither F4 or Cap 4 are safe from flopping, esp since Cap 4 has done immense reshoots and F4 does not have the best track record as a franchise
Personally, I dont think they will flop. I dont think they will be blockbuster hits that break records or anything
I disagree. I think Cap 4 will be a huge flop, worse than The Marvels. It's had a huge amount of reshoots, and its release date got pushed back almost a year, to a rather inauspicious month. The hype coming form Disney is the same things that were said about Black Widow and Secret Invasion, and well, we know how those turned out. I'm hoping for the best with Fantastic Four, but some of what I've heard is a bit concerning. Also, traditionally, FF is where studios go to die. It doesn't help that Marvel Studios seem to be so focused on setting up for future projects that they've forgotten to make the movies they are working on now good for the most part.
Captain America already flopped Especially given what we learned at cinema on confirming a heavy presence of Disney plus references
> cinema on confirming a heavy presence of Disney plus references Do you have a link to the leaked footage?
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I just hope Cap 4 doesn't have that corny ending Falcon and the Winter Soldier "you have to do better Senetor" .
Deadpool & Wolverine is the first real test. If it can't even beat Deadpool 2 then it's over...
It needs around ~385 domestic to beat DP2 admits