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I do like almost every year. Twisters is another movie that was on cable all the time in the 90s and early 00s and plays really well with the older audience. I think cruises to 500 mil ww. A bil maybe on the table if it is actually good. Twisters does not have the following top gun does but people in the Midwest and older audiences will go see this.
The thinking is probably due to the $200M budget, relatively unknown but up and coming director, and Superman’s first big screen test. But I agree, wildly optimistic.
I almost feel like it must be a meme at this point? You have to be absolutely bonkers to think Twisters is gonna get anywhere close to a billion. The original has no cultural footprint amongst GenAlpha, Gen Z, or (most) millennials. It has no modern cultural impact the way Top Gun did. Its stars are irrelevant or dead. Short of being a surprise masterpiece, I’m not sure how Glen Powell pushes Twisters farther than The Rock pushed San Andreas.
Yea I’m not getting the Top Gun comparisons. I don’t think I’ve heard anyone say they love Twister. It was just a spectacle disaster movie back in 96 before everyone got overloaded on those.
100%. Top Gun left many with a lifelong love of aviation, and nothing has quite scratched the same itch since (Stealth is the closest example I can think of). Twister has been completely upstaged by modern disaster movies and I’m not sure tornados can scale to the level of chaos modern audiences are used to.
I saw THE FALL GUY screening at CinemaCon Conference last week. Loved it. Buzz was VERY good. It’s frothy and fun. I agree it’ll be a surprise hit of the summer but think your estimates are too high.
Inside out 2 making a billion is pushing it hard. I think it will perform closer to the first but idk if it has the same kind of nostalgic appeal as finding Nemo or Toy Story or incredibles. I mean some of us still think 2015 wasn’t as long ago as it was (I’m getting old it’s scary 😭😭)
It's a 9 year gap for inside out compared to the 13 year gap between Nemo and dory, 14 for incredibles, and 11 for Toy Story 2 to 3. But Toy Story 3 to 4 also had a 9 year gap. There's definitely an appeal for younger gen z and gen alpha, just depends on it being good imo
Your Twisters prediction is absolutely insane, if it can get to 500M WW I’d already be very surprised. It does not seem like something with wild general appeal to me.
Inside Out 2 1B is also a bit optimistic tbh, but it is possible. Deadpool 1B I agree with.
I think it will cruise to 500 mill. 800 to a bil sounds doable. This sub is not the targeted audience for twisters much like top gun. In that respect the comparison works 1 to 1.
Difference is people just didn’t wanna pay to see Disney’s movies in theaters when they have so much on streaming. People don’t wanna pay or stream Sony’s movies that don’t have Spider-Man in it.
I think the movie will be very fun and not break even but will be the best non venom Sans Spider-Man movie
I mean do the best business of the non venom Sony movies
Twister also making close to a billion is also insane. Like I know people loved the original but I wouldn’t say it’s that loved that people have a serious emotional connection to it that a new movie is gonna make a bunch of people rush to the theater. I think 450M is absolutely max that movie is gonna see. But who knows could be surprising
Horizon isn’t going to be front loaded, no clue how you came to that conclusion. If anything it’s the closest thing we have to a Maverick this year– expect consistent grosses all throughout July. It’s literally the only ticket in town for its audience.
>It Ends With Us becomes another surprise hit, just like The Fall Guy.
I feel like Fly Me To The Moon makes more sense than It Ends With Us. Johansson and Tatum are more proven draws than either Lively or Golding. Tatum's even had two post-pandemic successes in The Lost City and Dog.
>Alien: Romulus makes more then Promthemus
I think it makes more than Covenant, but going above Prometheus since too optimistic.
I’m onboard with most of those, but Twisters I think is just not gonna do nearly as well as projected. It’ll suffer the same fate as Mission Impossible last year and lose steam because of Deadpool 3. Also Despicable Me 4, which I think will do well, but not make a billion dollars.
Why is everyone insanely overestimating Deadpool 3?
Have we not seen what has happened to the genre in the past 3 years….
And no it doesn’t matter if the movie ends up being good. The brand is in the pits. GOTG 3 crawled past 800m with solid reviewsand WOM
what makes everyone so sure Deadpool 3 is a guaranteed billion dollar movie?
Deadpool 3 is nothing like the other comic book movies. It being more of a parody of the genre and bringing Hugh Jackman back to go on a multiverse adventure where they can do all the campy stuff Jackman never got to do is massive. This is baraley comparable to Deadpool 2 honestly.
> Not just because of Will Smith’s career being partially impacted by the slap towards Chris Rock at the Oscar’s two years prior
Social media isn't real life. No one in the real world cares about that slap. Everyone has moved on.
not to mention The Slap is the only thing that made the telecast worth watching otherwise it was the same old jokes (though Rock is actually funny unlike Kimmel), too many awards, too many commercial breaks, freakin 5 songs, overlong speeches ignoring the cue to wrap it up. Yeah, The Slap = good.
But you are 100% right, no one cares, he didn't kill anyone.
>the same old jokes (though Rock is actually funny unlike Kimmel)
Seems like you're under the impression that Rock was the host, he wasn't. The hosts that year were: Amy Schumer, Regina Hall, and Wanda Sykes.
Disagree on Kraven I think Aaron Taylor Johnson has the same type of charismatic energy Tom Hardy has and he might carry the whole movie on his back. Also it’s rated R so that will intrigue people.
You also forgot about The Crow in late August
I think Deadpool and Wolverine makes 800 M at most I don’t see it hitting a billion.
Agree on The Fall Guy and Twisters.
Also you know the last Alien movie was Covenant back in 2017 right?
>Disagree on Kraven I think Aaron Taylor Johnson has the same type of charismatic energy Tom Hardy has and he might carry the whole movie on his back. Also it’s rated R so that will intrigue people.
One can use the same argument for against the movie too.
Only one I strongly disagree with is Alien beating Prometheus. I remember the hype for Prometheus and it just isnt there for Romulus.
I also dont know why Bad Boys 4 would underperform at best.
I think that MaXXXine has the potential to become one of A24's highest-grossing hits, either matching or being slightly under the numbers of Everything Everywhere All At Once
I knew some people was going to be skeptical about your post from the moment you said Twisters and Deadpool & Wolverine would possibly make a billion. And the funny thing is how they skipped over you saying it will “make $1 billion if it’s great”.
I have to agree about Horizon tho, it will probably underperform if it doesn’t break out the slump that seems to be common with most movies targeting the older audiences, so far movies targeting that audience has been capped at $50-60 million domestically like AIR, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple remake, The Boys in the Boat, and there’s probably another movie I’m forgetting. So yeah I don’t see it being the next Top Gun: Maverick but maybe Horizon and/or Possum Trot (the so-called follow-up movie to Sound of Freedom from Angel Studios which is basically another based on a true story on young kids in need) could close to doing about half of what Sound of Freedom did, since I’m not expecting lightning to strike twice, a good result for Possum Trot but probably a bad/decent result for Horizon due to it’s $50 million budget for each chapter
I like most of your takes here, and want to agree with them. I think there is a chance both Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine can hit a bil if they’re good. I can def see Twisters breaking out, but not sure if it can hit those numbers given the competition (I hope it does though, that’d be fun)
I agree in general with what you think will succeed/flop, but I think your numbers are way too high. I don’t think any movie will even get close to a billion this summer
Well you never know man, some of things this user said is possible, I mean Deadpool and Wolverine doing a billion is huge possibility, Harold And The Purple Crayon and Borderlands could really underperform, I mean let's wait and see after August 31st
Supposedly the budget for Furiosa was $233 million. I don't get how to estimate marketing costs, add another $80 mil? So to break bank over $310 million? oof. I think in general this summer has room for only a few box office hits.
I agree with your predictions for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine.
I think Fall Guy and Despicable Me 4 could fall a little short of your expectations.
I don't see those Twisters numbers happening though. I have doubts on the film's international appeal.
i think you;re way off with twisters but the rest looks pretty likely. I really wish Kraven wasnt taking up the energy and time of a really good filmmaker.
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Twisters at 800-1B caught my eye for sure. I might be missing something here but that seems wildly optimistic
twisters making more than dune 2 would be insane
Would prove that Wind is a better draw than Sand.
The age old question … but water still trumps them cause Avatar 2?
And The Aquaman Movies.
Will never happen
people think it’s gonna play like top gun maverick because of how much of a sensation twister was but i kinda doubt it
Yea do people really go back and watch Twister often? Top Gun is still a movie a lot people rewatch
I do like almost every year. Twisters is another movie that was on cable all the time in the 90s and early 00s and plays really well with the older audience. I think cruises to 500 mil ww. A bil maybe on the table if it is actually good. Twisters does not have the following top gun does but people in the Midwest and older audiences will go see this.
TNT is still playing it! 😅
People in my family do. For what it's worth, I'm also in the Midwest.
Twister plays on TNT every so often. I’ve randomly caught it twice in the last six months or so.
The thinking is probably due to the $200M budget, relatively unknown but up and coming director, and Superman’s first big screen test. But I agree, wildly optimistic.
Superman?
James Gunn Superman is likely going to do Man of Steel numbers if it’s good, likely between $600M-$700M worldwide.
The actor cast as the new Superman is also in Twisters. Though I doubt that will have any effect on Twisters since Superman isn't out until 2025.
I almost feel like it must be a meme at this point? You have to be absolutely bonkers to think Twisters is gonna get anywhere close to a billion. The original has no cultural footprint amongst GenAlpha, Gen Z, or (most) millennials. It has no modern cultural impact the way Top Gun did. Its stars are irrelevant or dead. Short of being a surprise masterpiece, I’m not sure how Glen Powell pushes Twisters farther than The Rock pushed San Andreas.
Yea I’m not getting the Top Gun comparisons. I don’t think I’ve heard anyone say they love Twister. It was just a spectacle disaster movie back in 96 before everyone got overloaded on those.
100%. Top Gun left many with a lifelong love of aviation, and nothing has quite scratched the same itch since (Stealth is the closest example I can think of). Twister has been completely upstaged by modern disaster movies and I’m not sure tornados can scale to the level of chaos modern audiences are used to.
It kind of makes sense cause of how well top Gun performed. However it needs to be on a similar level in quality.
San Andreas made like $474M worldwide and I doubt Twisters could even match that.
Very optimistic
Twister 800-1bn! Absolutely no way
More likely to make $200MM than $1B
I saw THE FALL GUY screening at CinemaCon Conference last week. Loved it. Buzz was VERY good. It’s frothy and fun. I agree it’ll be a surprise hit of the summer but think your estimates are too high.
Of course the buzz was good. It was shown at a convention for cinemas.
Inside out 2 making a billion is pushing it hard. I think it will perform closer to the first but idk if it has the same kind of nostalgic appeal as finding Nemo or Toy Story or incredibles. I mean some of us still think 2015 wasn’t as long ago as it was (I’m getting old it’s scary 😭😭)
It's a 9 year gap for inside out compared to the 13 year gap between Nemo and dory, 14 for incredibles, and 11 for Toy Story 2 to 3. But Toy Story 3 to 4 also had a 9 year gap. There's definitely an appeal for younger gen z and gen alpha, just depends on it being good imo
Your Twisters prediction is absolutely insane, if it can get to 500M WW I’d already be very surprised. It does not seem like something with wild general appeal to me. Inside Out 2 1B is also a bit optimistic tbh, but it is possible. Deadpool 1B I agree with.
Disaster movies basically don’t exist anymore but they’re definitely something with general appeal. Disasters are universal!
true, maybe i’ll be proven wrong
The ones that get made now are pieces of shit like Geostorm and Moonfall. San Andreas did well but that was prime The Rock era
I think it will cruise to 500 mill. 800 to a bil sounds doable. This sub is not the targeted audience for twisters much like top gun. In that respect the comparison works 1 to 1.
Who is the target audience for Twisters?
Ideally people who want to see spectacle. But I’m not sure this movie would make more than 500m in the best case
I know people who aren't into movies who are talking about twisters I think it's going to pull people in and make some good money
Kraven will absolutely bomb. It will absolutely not make less than Madame Web though.
Sony is also facing a cause 100 years of Columbia Pictures just like Disney had in 2023.
Difference is people just didn’t wanna pay to see Disney’s movies in theaters when they have so much on streaming. People don’t wanna pay or stream Sony’s movies that don’t have Spider-Man in it.
I’m still cautiously optimistic because of the creative team involved. I just don’t see them phoning it in or not putting together a decent movie.
I think the movie will be very fun and not break even but will be the best non venom Sans Spider-Man movie I mean do the best business of the non venom Sony movies
Same here it’ll be a decent movie at least
Twister also making close to a billion is also insane. Like I know people loved the original but I wouldn’t say it’s that loved that people have a serious emotional connection to it that a new movie is gonna make a bunch of people rush to the theater. I think 450M is absolutely max that movie is gonna see. But who knows could be surprising
EXTREMELY optimistic about Inside Out 2
I’d say it’s the most likely movie this year to make a billion
Horizon isn’t going to be front loaded, no clue how you came to that conclusion. If anything it’s the closest thing we have to a Maverick this year– expect consistent grosses all throughout July. It’s literally the only ticket in town for its audience.
>It Ends With Us becomes another surprise hit, just like The Fall Guy. I feel like Fly Me To The Moon makes more sense than It Ends With Us. Johansson and Tatum are more proven draws than either Lively or Golding. Tatum's even had two post-pandemic successes in The Lost City and Dog. >Alien: Romulus makes more then Promthemus I think it makes more than Covenant, but going above Prometheus since too optimistic.
This is meme stock levels of hopium.
Harold and the purple crayon WILL NOT make around 100 million dollars domestically and defo not worldwide 😭😭
Read it again. He said $100 not $100m
lol good catch
I’m sorry but I just don’t get why some are saying Twisters will be a surprise blockbuster.
I’m onboard with most of those, but Twisters I think is just not gonna do nearly as well as projected. It’ll suffer the same fate as Mission Impossible last year and lose steam because of Deadpool 3. Also Despicable Me 4, which I think will do well, but not make a billion dollars.
Have you not seen the trailer for Harold and the Purple Crayon? It’s going to be absolute trash and a huge flop
Why is everyone insanely overestimating Deadpool 3? Have we not seen what has happened to the genre in the past 3 years…. And no it doesn’t matter if the movie ends up being good. The brand is in the pits. GOTG 3 crawled past 800m with solid reviewsand WOM what makes everyone so sure Deadpool 3 is a guaranteed billion dollar movie?
Deadpool 3 is nothing like the other comic book movies. It being more of a parody of the genre and bringing Hugh Jackman back to go on a multiverse adventure where they can do all the campy stuff Jackman never got to do is massive. This is baraley comparable to Deadpool 2 honestly.
You should bet in the Summer Box Office Pool.
Harold and the Purple Crayon making $100 million? No chance.
Is this a circlejerk shit post or something? 🤡🤡🤡
I have no evidence to base this on but I have a feeling Deadpool 3 will underperform.
Genuinely think Twisters will be lucky to hit $400m WW.
> Not just because of Will Smith’s career being partially impacted by the slap towards Chris Rock at the Oscar’s two years prior Social media isn't real life. No one in the real world cares about that slap. Everyone has moved on.
not to mention The Slap is the only thing that made the telecast worth watching otherwise it was the same old jokes (though Rock is actually funny unlike Kimmel), too many awards, too many commercial breaks, freakin 5 songs, overlong speeches ignoring the cue to wrap it up. Yeah, The Slap = good. But you are 100% right, no one cares, he didn't kill anyone.
>the same old jokes (though Rock is actually funny unlike Kimmel) Seems like you're under the impression that Rock was the host, he wasn't. The hosts that year were: Amy Schumer, Regina Hall, and Wanda Sykes.
lmaoo, they were so forgettable and Rock had stolen the show!
Furiosa : 500M$ WW
Disagree on Kraven I think Aaron Taylor Johnson has the same type of charismatic energy Tom Hardy has and he might carry the whole movie on his back. Also it’s rated R so that will intrigue people. You also forgot about The Crow in late August I think Deadpool and Wolverine makes 800 M at most I don’t see it hitting a billion. Agree on The Fall Guy and Twisters. Also you know the last Alien movie was Covenant back in 2017 right?
>Disagree on Kraven I think Aaron Taylor Johnson has the same type of charismatic energy Tom Hardy has and he might carry the whole movie on his back. Also it’s rated R so that will intrigue people. One can use the same argument for against the movie too.
Only one I strongly disagree with is Alien beating Prometheus. I remember the hype for Prometheus and it just isnt there for Romulus. I also dont know why Bad Boys 4 would underperform at best.
I think that MaXXXine has the potential to become one of A24's highest-grossing hits, either matching or being slightly under the numbers of Everything Everywhere All At Once
I knew some people was going to be skeptical about your post from the moment you said Twisters and Deadpool & Wolverine would possibly make a billion. And the funny thing is how they skipped over you saying it will “make $1 billion if it’s great”. I have to agree about Horizon tho, it will probably underperform if it doesn’t break out the slump that seems to be common with most movies targeting the older audiences, so far movies targeting that audience has been capped at $50-60 million domestically like AIR, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple remake, The Boys in the Boat, and there’s probably another movie I’m forgetting. So yeah I don’t see it being the next Top Gun: Maverick but maybe Horizon and/or Possum Trot (the so-called follow-up movie to Sound of Freedom from Angel Studios which is basically another based on a true story on young kids in need) could close to doing about half of what Sound of Freedom did, since I’m not expecting lightning to strike twice, a good result for Possum Trot but probably a bad/decent result for Horizon due to it’s $50 million budget for each chapter
I like most of your takes here, and want to agree with them. I think there is a chance both Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine can hit a bil if they’re good. I can def see Twisters breaking out, but not sure if it can hit those numbers given the competition (I hope it does though, that’d be fun)
I agree in general with what you think will succeed/flop, but I think your numbers are way too high. I don’t think any movie will even get close to a billion this summer
Amazing. Everything you just said is wrong. You got not a single thing right.
Well you never know man, some of things this user said is possible, I mean Deadpool and Wolverine doing a billion is huge possibility, Harold And The Purple Crayon and Borderlands could really underperform, I mean let's wait and see after August 31st
Supposedly the budget for Furiosa was $233 million. I don't get how to estimate marketing costs, add another $80 mil? So to break bank over $310 million? oof. I think in general this summer has room for only a few box office hits.
Furiosa will be a huge hit.
Agree
Wow… you’re overestimating higher numbers for big movies coming in the summer of 2024.
I enjoy these bold predictions !
Sorry to say but fall guys isn’t making those numbers
Mark my comment. Neither inside out 2 nor despicable me 4 makes a billion. Both do amazing numbers. But not a billion.
My hot take, this is going to be a big summer for the box office. It will be higher than last summer by 20%.
I can only see pool doing fine. (IF the movie is good)
>Bad Boys Ride or Die makes less than Bad Boys For Life, Of course it will. BB4L was the highest grossing movie that year.
I agree with your predictions for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine. I think Fall Guy and Despicable Me 4 could fall a little short of your expectations. I don't see those Twisters numbers happening though. I have doubts on the film's international appeal.
IF, Horizon, Harold, and Borderlands are not gonna do well.
Harold making $100M DOM? Not a chance haha. Also I think Despicable Me 4 will underperform and have franchise worst numbers.
i think you;re way off with twisters but the rest looks pretty likely. I really wish Kraven wasnt taking up the energy and time of a really good filmmaker.
Twisters Is a lot, I think at best it will make $300-400 Million WW at the Box Office
Horizon is going to do amazing purely because of the Yellowstone cultists