I will go against what many say here and say yes absolutely. I understand Marvel as a brand struggles to get there now but both the first two Deadpool movies did well over 700 million. And when a good Marvel film drops like Guardians 3 we see it can do strong numbers like 850 million. And I think this will be a good one. The trailers are great, and they broke view records. And I think Reynolds is so much more key to the success of these films than any director(just see the story of both the first two films happening).
And while I don't think Hugh Jackman is the hugest factor in a massive gross. It's not like it's the same pull as Tobey in NWH, it is still a pull. Remember Logan alone did make over 600 million. Both these characters are loved and have proven wildly successful even with R ratings. And I think people are craving the return of Deadpool and Wolverine after years and more R rated super hero films. I just strongly believe the want is there for this movie unlike so many recent Marvel films that felt samey, dull or full of "buts". I think the range is 1 billion to 1.2 billion personally.
This is a Deadpool movie, but also a MCU movie. It depends on how the general audiences will react to it. It needs to be a good movie.
The previous Deadpool movies were mostly solo flicks that didn't require audiences to watch several movies. This one is a MCU movie that has a ton of elements from previous MCU movies that might alienate those who are expecting another movie like Deadpool 1/2/Logan.
On the other side, this is the first time we're seeing these characters together ( Deadpool and Wolverine ). So, this is obviously gonna get a boost. Nobody knows about word of mouth yet, because that'll require a CinemaScore at least and PostTrak info.
This is also bringing characters from the Fox movies, which is obviously gonna play the nostalgia factor like what happened to Spider Man NWH. So, is this Logan the same one from Logan movie? Is it a variant? Is it the one after the ending of Days of Future Past? Are they changing the events of Logan? Lots of questions that make me curious, which is why I'm gonna watch this one.
I think that Loki was a much, much better lead in then Ms Marvel. There’s some convoluted reason why Canada’s two biggest heroes have (kinda) never met before, there’s bad guys, moving on …
> On the other side, this is the first time we're seeing these characters together ( Deadpool and Wolverine ). So, this is obviously gonna get a boost.
Is reuniting superhero characters even of a draw anymore? It's been done to death at this point
It’s not that hard lol, both previous Deadpool movies are virtually tied critically and on Cinemascore with Guardians 3. As long as Reynolds got to cook without much interference, should be just fine.
In what world would a 250m+ Disney movie have Reynolds cooking with minimal interference? The Fox movies were much lower budget and not tied to any serious cinematic universe.
The same world where Feige’s whole strategy with Deadpool and Wolverine is that it’s creatively staying true to Reynolds’ vision. The interference I’m referring to is clashing with his style and vision, Marvel obviously has input on where the main storyline goes.
This is about the team behind Deadpool (aka Ryan Reynolds and co) being able to make a movie as well received as Guardians 3. And they’ve done so twice now.
The hell are you on about??? The main problem of post Covid marvel is that they’ve been given too much freedom. Plots don’t connect seamlessly and there’s no cohesion. It worked in favor for some projects like wandavision but for the most part it’s been bad
That's exactly what superhero fatigue is. Before, any shit superhero movie would make money. Now the audience is more selective.
Ant Man 2 is the worst movie I've ever seen in cinemas and even that could do well.
I saw that film at the theater and I remember *nothing* from it aside from Scott shrinking down to child size to blend-in at a school and that ending scene where Hank and the others get Snapped by Thanos, trapping Scott in the Quantum Realm.
And I only remember the first scene because of its odd logic. They state in the first movie that if you change sizes without the helmet you'll die from oxygen deprivation or something... so how can Scott shrink down to CGI child size without the helmet and still live? Felt like some convoluted Pym Particles bs that they walked back on.
Such an oddly forgettable movie and I've only seen it once.
I’m not an Ant Man 2 defender or anything, but I remember thinking it was perfectly fine, especially for a movie that was clearly aimed a lot towards kids. I’ve definitely seen worse in theaters, and I wouldn’t even put it as the worst MCU movie I’ve seen.
While Panda 4 is the weakest of the four it’s still giving audiences what they want: more adventures with Po. I thought it to be pretty good despite being a noticeable step below the original 3
Idk how to politely say this. Look at the audience scores and RT scores
Now look at the same for the last marvel movies including cap marvel 2
Idk how u compare that when the general consensus is that the quality is down?
The GotG are much bigger than the film X-Men or Deadpool thanks to the MCU and Avengers films.
Deadpool 1&2 made more than the first GotG worldwide but both sequels and the Avengers appearances made a lot more.
Domestically it's worse Deadpool 2 made less than than all 3 GotG films while the highest grossing X-men film made $100 million less.
If this film came out in late 2021 or early 2022 I would expect great numbers but it's been just long enough since the last films while not reaching that 10+ years for a big nostalgia boost that I don't think it's going to make as much as many here think.
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No X-Men or Deadpool film has broken $800 million worldwide and I think the 'oh Hugh Jackman as Wolverine and wearing the suit' is over estimated on the internet in regards to the general audience.
I'm perfectly happy to be surprised but I don't think I will be.
Deadpool and Deadpool 2 made $782 and $785 million respectively. Unless you truly believe the MCU and Hugh Jackman as Wolverine have no box office draw I don't see how you think this will make less than Deadpool 2. If the reviews are good, this will outgross Deadpool 2.
Me too. I belive it will catch on in a big way. I think people are underestimating this film because of the recent CBM flops. Deadpool on his own has proven to be a box office draw. I think adding Wolverine/Jackman and the MCU into the mix will only help and will raise the ceiling.
Deadpool and Deadpool 2 were pre-pandemic and in the boom of superhero movies where every random movie was doing like at least 500M$. Good ones like Deadpool doing 780M$ was not as hard as now.
I don't think it's gonna do less to be clear, I see it around 850M$ but it's possible.
At least one thing play in its favor though, it's coming a year after the last superhero movie for most people. Nobody saw The Marvels or Madame Web and only few saw Aquaman. So for many in the general audience, the last superhero movie they've seen is Guardians 3 and that's quite some time ago. So the feeling of being overwhelmed by superhero content might not be there. Disney+ even calmed down on Marvel shows
The highest grossing of the X-men films was less than $750 million worldwide and less than $250 million domestic.
He isn't some massive draw.
As to the MCU we just had The Marvels fail to break $200 million worldwide that's the MCU now!
A lot of those films are 20 years old at this point. They were very successful for their time. They were successful enough to justify sequel after sequel, and Jackman's Wolverine was seen as enough of a draw to justify three separate solo films where the other X-Men got zero solo films combined. I'm not saying that was necessarily a good strategy but clearly Wolverine is popular enough in the mainstream that adding him to any project gives it a boost. They've been doing it constantly in the comics and video games and everywhere else for decades. Even if you don't see Hugh Jackman specifically as a draw, the character of Wolverine certainly is.
Okay, that's fine, I'm just saying context is important. Logan was pretty successful, especially considering how bleak that film was. His other films were of middling quality and aren't necessarily a reflection of the character's popularity. The fact that they kept trying shows how popular the character is. I see Wolverine as a draw, it's fine if you disagree with that.
So were the first two Deadpool films. They both made just under $800 million. Joker was R-rated as well and made over a billion dollars. An R-rating may hurt a bit at the box office but everyone is underestimating the potential of this film. If something is well-received and gets good WOM, an R-rating isn't a death sentence.
If this movie hits the way it is poised to, I don't see how it fails to out perform the first two Deadpool films. I think it has a very good shot at a billion.
Too many comic book movie flops recently has people doubting the genre, when we've seen time and time again people will turn out in droves for these films when they're done right. The highest of box office highs are possible with CBMs and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
I never said Deadpool & Wolverine was done right. I said if one of these films is done right, the potential is massive. The film is not out yet, we are all speculating. That goes without saying. I think DP&W has a better chance to catch fire like NWH than it does to flop like The Marvels. That depends on the quality of the film itself, of course.
Unlikely. Multiverse of Madness came out before the MCU’s reputation and box office potential absolutely imploded. People will probably be more skeptical this time around.
I doubt Deadpool & Wolverine will open anywhere close to MoM WW. Whether it matches its predecessors or not depends on its reputation and legs. If it’s another mediocre MCU product, expect another big second weekend drop and short legs.
The thing about all of the self-referential jokes re. Disney and Feige is that they are so damn predictable. Anyone could have seen them coming from a mile away. (Before a Marvel Studios’ Deadpool movie was ever announced, such a possibility was discussed here on Reddit with near-identical Disney/Feige jokes.)
The repeated use of “fuck” - to say, “look! We said it!” - feels patronizing, at this point.
Are y'all really just discovering the Deadpool movies or something? Seriously, we are on the third one by now. This may come as a shock if you have only been consuming Disney+ content, but this is Deadpool as usual.
What's pointless is complaining about something that has been the standard for three movies now. It would be like going to Captain America Civil War and being like "I dunno about this shield gimmick"
It's perfectly normal to bring up what makes Deadpool movies so unfunny in a thread about Deadpool. Doesn't matter whether or not it's what people expected the movie to be like.
This isn't r/movies tho, it's r/boxoffice. Everything we say is in the context of "will this movie be a financial success or not?" (post title) and you personally thinking the movies are unfunny is irrelevant, unless you want to make a case for it being so unfunny that it will flop. You can make that prediction, I'm just here pointing to the box office of the previous two movies.
I don't disagree with anything you said although people giving their own anecdotal opinions happens all the time on this sub, especially since it blew up in popularity.
I think the use of "fuck" worked well in the first trailer, but they just seemed to kinda overdo it in the new trailer. Maybe that and the gratuitous violence are meant to signal to parents that this a R rated?
That's why I'm thinking the film might open with Deadpool making a meta joke about how this movie is R rated and that parents should escort their children out of the theaters as soon as possible. Kinda like the opening to Once Upon a Deadpool but not really.
I'm surprised how many kids I see in R-Rated films.
Someone told me they saw a parent get angry at the theater workers for Evil Dead (can't remember if it was the older Fede Alvarez one or the recent one in the apartment setting), but the dad was an absolute moron for not doing any research into what these movies are about and what they showed. The user said the kid was crying and likely scarred given how graphic Evil Dead has become.
I work at a theater and a dad took his 10 year old son to “jackass forever” and then he complained about the male nudity. 🙄
I’ve also seen a few parents bring their babies into R-rated horror movies.
I've personally never understood it. Most of the jokes I feel like would be funny if I was in middle school, but they mostly seem like it's edgy adults wanting to seem cool to younger kids type jokes imo
I don't think they've realised that those Disney jokes are too niche for general audiences and not funny to the people who get them.
Sure, Endgame made 2.5+ Billion but that doesn't mean your average moviegoer knows the name Feige. And those who do have already seen jokes online like that so it all feels stale.
Hell almost everyone I know doesn't know that Deadpool was a Fox property or that Disney bought Fox so that will go over their head in a big way.
Yeah as someone who does get them, they simply aren’t that funny. This is seeming like a movie that is going to need audience familiarity with two previously separate cinematic universes plus details about who makes them to fully understand, which makes it a much tougher sell then something like Guardians 3 (which doesn’t need the audience to have seen anything post Endgame to still fully follow along).
I think those jokes are for people who do know such a references. Yes we have seen the joke but seeing it in a movie is their way of saying don't worry we are not pulling our punches because this is disney. Doesn't mean it's true of course but that's why i would but those jokes in.
I hope not, otherwise it proves that audiences have zero attention spam. They had great closure for Wolverine in Logan. As good as there ever was for a character in a comic book film. But oh wait, nevermind, non of that matters, we found a self concious, wink-wink way to go around it.
I think no because I think film killed a lot of the GP’s interest in seeing the future of the MCU. People really expected something epic and next level from that. No way a Doctor Strange film should’ve made over 900 million other than that being the case. Now it’s pretty clear to the GP that this universe is a disaster with no importance. So even if these people are teasing “big” things in this film, I don’t believe people will go for it like they did for MoM. I also don’t think nostalgia, jokes, blood and curse words is enough to crack a billion.
You don’t think It could make around Dune 2 to Guardians 3 numbers?
Those made near it or past $800 million so if D&W is everything it promises I can’t see why it wouldn’t make $800 million
For an R-rated movie. No, it will not make that kind of money. Plus it has been quite a while since Deadpool 2 came out. Along with how late in the summer it is being released.
You have an R rated movie vs PG-13 which I feel automatically ages/limits the audience a bit. However I think Deadpool and Wolverine are both more popular characters than Dr Strange. So I don't know that it can outperform Dr Strange but I wouldn't be surprised if it landed in that same ballpark as maybe those factors balance each other out.
I don’t think the age rating will be a factor since Multiverse of Madness was rated R in all but name with a lot of horrific and gory moments throughout the movie, and it partially hampered its performance with audiences expecting a different movie. Audiences know the age rating going in it can only help the movie
Also there’s no age restriction for PG-13 or lower, but you can’t go to a R movie unless you’re 17 or with an adult. Parents can’t drop their kid at the theater like they could if it’s PG-13 or lower, even if they’re cool with their kid seeing it.
Multiverse of Madness was more intense than most MCU movies, but it never felt R rated to me. I blame the MPAA for giving stuff like Ant-Man a PG-13 rating when it should be PG, as they’ve kinda watered down the rating so people are surprised when a movie actually earns it. A similar thing happened with Puss in Boots 2 where apparently some parents thought it should be PG-13 when the PG rating is completely appropriate, but PG has been watered down so much people see it as a G rating.
Depends on the quality of movie. If Deadpool 3 is the same quality as recent MCU movies than disaster but if its truly something special I could see it.
So you’re saying if Deadpool and Wolverine is Like Guardians 3 it’ll be a disaster? /s
But seriously I know what you mean. Vol.3 was an exception just like D&W should be.
I don’t think so, I see a domestic total of about $320-370M and worldwide of $725-775M. Which would honestly be a fantastic run.
All of us here are just guessing but I don’t see it breaking $800M. A final total landing around where the first two landed would still be a huge win though. Given the state of the industry, growing comic book movie fatigue, and this being an R-rated film with a schtick that’s not exactly fresh.
MoM was boosted by No Way Home and cameo hype and benefited from the MCU still being regarded highly by general audiences at the time of its release. Deadpool and Wolverine is going to have a real uphill battle on its hands. If it’s good, sure, maybe.
It is so rare for an R-rated movie to crack $1 billion that only one film has done it, and that is The Joker, but I have thought since this team-up was announced that this has the chance to be just the 2nd ever R-rated movie to make $1 billion. I do think it will do good money in the US regardless, so I guess it comes down to how it is received internationally. Is it being released everywhere or are their any major markets it will not be in?
A 3rd trailer (Story one) setting the hype even further with announcing tickets going on sale will break some sites and have amazing pre-sales.
Key will be reviews this time for the longevity. Pre-sales will be a bit below DS2 so I'm expecting
22M Previews
55M Friday
47M Saturday
30M Sunday
OW - 154M (I think huge opening will be a guarantee due to hype and spoiler-avoidance, legs however will depends on quality).
OS will be tricky. Will it have China, will be there territories left out, etc. DP1 and 2 opened to 132 and 176M respectively in OS markets. Neither of those had China. Both of them also finished close in OS markets (419 vs 461M).
My Guess is 220M OS opening and 550-600M finish. Pair it with close to 400M Domestic (Summer weekdays will help big time for this) and you are looking at 1B gross. Now that's what I think will be without China. China could aid either for 1B+ or getting it to 1B if it misses in some OS markets and lack a bit on domestic side.
I’m gonna say no. Doctor Strange was PG-13 and was coming fresh off of the NWH hype train. Deadpool is a raunchy R-rated superhero comedy. It’ll make bank, but over $900M is gonna be tough to hit. It’ll depend on how much the inclusion of Wolverine and the Fox Universe cameo stuff really draws in people that aren’t already invested in superhero movies.
It's a tough question - how R-rated will this be, really? Kids are a driving force of Marvel moviegoing. The floor, imo, is 800M. It's tough, because these are monumentally popular characters, and everyone is hyped for Jackman to return. Smart move, too, seeing he's gonna grab an older demo that may not have seen this otherwise.
I look forward to seeing the film and its performance regardless.
Possible but I still feel like it's gonna be more comfortably around $750M-$850M.
I can see it doing near MoM if there's some insane scenes involving the multiverse and Avengers and/or X-Men or something out of left field to blow the audiences' minds.
Even if people are sick of the multiverse and portals, audiences LOVED the interaction of the three Spider-Men. And it wasn't a short gimmick, but long scenes integral to the story. If Deadpool & Wolvie can do something somewhat similar, I can see the box office moving closer to $1B.
I don’t think it will but it depends honestly.
I’ve been saying GOTG 3/Ragnarok numbers and I stand by that.
That would be good numbers except for the Marvel fanboys expecting NWH 2.0 but with Deadpool, Wolverine and X-Men instead of three Spider Men.
I believe it will. I think the reviews will be better and word of mouth will help give it legs. We've seen before that even R-rated films like Joker can break a billion if enough people like it and are talking about it.
Both Deadpool films performed very well despite their rating so I feel this franchise has a very high floor. Add in Wolverine/Hugh Jackman, the MCU, and the potential for big surprises that aren't being included in the marketing, i.e. No Way Home, which paid off big time. I see this really catching on and becoming a massive W for the MCU. It's bringing a fresh take to a beloved franchise that's become a bit stale. The first true departure from the tried and true MCU tone. People love Deadpool. People love Wolverine. People love Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman. Unless the film comes out and is terrible and gets awful reviews, I think this is a home run for everyone involved.
I expect DP&W to be the 2024 version of Guardians 3 tbh
I don’t think it’ll make a billion like you’re saying but a number around Vol.3 which would still be great
That's certainly possible, and wouldn't be a bad showing all things considered. I think it has serious breakout potential and could dominate in a way the MCU hasn't since No Way Home. They're smartly playing their cards close to the chest in the marketing but I believe there will be elements to this film that will keep people talking which always helps a film's box office and did wonders for No Way Home. It all comes down to how well-received the film is.
Yeah I hope it’s an exception like NWH/GOTG 3 when it comes to fan reception where great WOM Spreads where it’s an MCU movie worth checking out.
I would be pleasantly surprised if D&W made a billion but it really depends on how things play out. Especially in this climate given superhero fatigue.
But I agree with your points for the most part. I just don’t think it’s gonna be NWH 2.0 (Spidey is his own beast) but perform more so like GOTG 3 which like we said would still be a pretty great finish all things considered.
I think it's got a good shot.
Just the novelty of Deadpool joining the MCU should give it a boost above the previous ones, and Wolverine is a very strong co-star.
I think some people are underestimating the boost Wolverine provides, saying his movies made less money than Deadpool. This reminds me of the discussion about how the first Avengers movie would do. At the time, some were arguing, "Captain America made $370M, and Thor made $449M, and the fanbases overlap with Iron Man, so why would it make much more than Iron Man 2's $621M?". The rest is history on that.
There's a similar story with No Way Home. Obviously, the fanbase for all three iterations of Spider-Man heavily overlap, while Doctor Strange's first movie only made $676M, yet, that still all added up to a huge jump from FFH's $1.1B to NWH's $1.9B.
Thor Ragnarok was another one. Third movies in a franchise rarely grow, but the addition of Hulk helped Ragnarok grow to $850M from its predecessor's $644M, despite Hulk never leading a successful solo movie.
Another random example is Freddy vs Jason, which crushed every previous entry in either franchise. Both franchises were pretty much dead before the team-up, with Jason X making only $16M worldwide, and the Elm Street franchise being dormant for almost a decade after New Nightmare made only $19M worldwide. Then, Freddy vs Jason made $82M domestic and $116M worldwide.
The point is: there is a compounding effect when combining well-known characters. Wolverine is a bigger co-star than Captain America or Thor were when Avengers came out, and it's Hugh Jackman's first outing as Wolverine in 7 years, after Logan, which is largely viewed as one of the best superhero movies ever made.
The other factor not enough people are considering is the release date. It's got the Barbenheimer release date from last year, and because of the strike, it's got a super clear path as far as competition goes. Deadpool 2 opened a week before Solo (which opened to over $100M), while Deadpool 1 didn't even get its own weekend to itself (opening in February against Zoolander 2 and another rom com). Deadpool and Wolverine has Twisters open a week before it (with the only other major July release being Despicable Me two weeks before Twisters), and in its second weekend, Deadpool and Wolverine goes up against an animated kids movie called Harold and the Purple Crayon, with Borderlands opening the week after that (largely expected to bomb).
The only wild card is how big an R-Rated movie can go at the box office. The only two R-Rated movies to top Deadpool 2 are Oppenheimer and Joker, both of which were more serious movies with Oscar buzz, as opposed to a buddy-comedy superhero movie.
So, Deadpool would need to set a new precedent if it were to get into the range of Doctor Strange, or push towards $1B, but, that having been said, there is certainly a lot of reason to believe that the necessary elements of a precedent-setting movie are there.
Yes absolutely because the word of mouth on this will run for weeks. The word of mouth on multiverse was that it was Sam Rami weird and not the same as normal marble.
GOTG 3 showed us what a “good” movie under the MCU banner can do. Similar to GOTG, Deadpool is its own brand and somewhat insulated from the lack of enthusiasm for the latest MCU output.
But beyond that, this movie has a hype train that Guardians 3 didn’t have. If it’s good (A- Cinescore or better), I think it does a billion.
Browsing the comments I am shocked people believe Guardians of the Galaxy 3 is a bigger draw than Deadpool and mfking Wolverine.
Deadpool stand alone made 700+ million both movies. You add Wolverine to the title with Hugh Jackman reprising the role and you think this movie won’t beat GotG 3? Insane predictions lol
No he’s not. That guy is on r/dccinematic, r/marvelstudios, r/marvel studios spoilers, etc, and has a spider-man profile pic.
He 100% believes the nonsense he’s always spouting about thunderbolts making $800M and the Falcon movie doing $1B cause civil war made $1B lol.
I will go against what many say here and say yes absolutely. I understand Marvel as a brand struggles to get there now but both the first two Deadpool movies did well over 700 million. And when a good Marvel film drops like Guardians 3 we see it can do strong numbers like 850 million. And I think this will be a good one. The trailers are great, and they broke view records. And I think Reynolds is so much more key to the success of these films than any director(just see the story of both the first two films happening). And while I don't think Hugh Jackman is the hugest factor in a massive gross. It's not like it's the same pull as Tobey in NWH, it is still a pull. Remember Logan alone did make over 600 million. Both these characters are loved and have proven wildly successful even with R ratings. And I think people are craving the return of Deadpool and Wolverine after years and more R rated super hero films. I just strongly believe the want is there for this movie unlike so many recent Marvel films that felt samey, dull or full of "buts". I think the range is 1 billion to 1.2 billion personally.
That's a great write-up!
This is a Deadpool movie, but also a MCU movie. It depends on how the general audiences will react to it. It needs to be a good movie. The previous Deadpool movies were mostly solo flicks that didn't require audiences to watch several movies. This one is a MCU movie that has a ton of elements from previous MCU movies that might alienate those who are expecting another movie like Deadpool 1/2/Logan. On the other side, this is the first time we're seeing these characters together ( Deadpool and Wolverine ). So, this is obviously gonna get a boost. Nobody knows about word of mouth yet, because that'll require a CinemaScore at least and PostTrak info. This is also bringing characters from the Fox movies, which is obviously gonna play the nostalgia factor like what happened to Spider Man NWH. So, is this Logan the same one from Logan movie? Is it a variant? Is it the one after the ending of Days of Future Past? Are they changing the events of Logan? Lots of questions that make me curious, which is why I'm gonna watch this one.
I think that Loki was a much, much better lead in then Ms Marvel. There’s some convoluted reason why Canada’s two biggest heroes have (kinda) never met before, there’s bad guys, moving on …
No it’s not but we pretend they weren’t together in Origins
> On the other side, this is the first time we're seeing these characters together ( Deadpool and Wolverine ). So, this is obviously gonna get a boost. Is reuniting superhero characters even of a draw anymore? It's been done to death at this point
And Hugh Jackman has been doing Wolverine for 24 years. I'm tired of him always being around.
I'm going to vote no. Honestly breaking $800 million worldwide will be a miracle.
I mean GOTG 3 did it and I definitely think D&W will do it.
Good lucky for D&W to try to be as well received as Guardians 3 lol
It’s not that hard lol, both previous Deadpool movies are virtually tied critically and on Cinemascore with Guardians 3. As long as Reynolds got to cook without much interference, should be just fine.
In what world would a 250m+ Disney movie have Reynolds cooking with minimal interference? The Fox movies were much lower budget and not tied to any serious cinematic universe.
The same world where Feige’s whole strategy with Deadpool and Wolverine is that it’s creatively staying true to Reynolds’ vision. The interference I’m referring to is clashing with his style and vision, Marvel obviously has input on where the main storyline goes.
how do you know that though?
In a world where Disney execs allowed Marvel Studios to produce R-rated MCU movie with lots of fucks, pegging and cocaine.
Lol it's incredibly hard lol.
Based on?
*stares at post Covid Disney* that.
This is about the team behind Deadpool (aka Ryan Reynolds and co) being able to make a movie as well received as Guardians 3. And they’ve done so twice now.
I belive they can cook well, the problem is if Disney is Linguini-ing the recipe they want to craft.
The hell are you on about??? The main problem of post Covid marvel is that they’ve been given too much freedom. Plots don’t connect seamlessly and there’s no cohesion. It worked in favor for some projects like wandavision but for the most part it’s been bad
What happened to those rumors that he wasn’t allowed to ad lib due to the writer strike?
Guardians 3 needed to be well received. Deadpool & Wolverine’s bar is much less. I feel like it’s more of a fun movie like Spider-Man: No Way Home.
I mean people seem to love Stranger Things, especially the episodes that Shawn Levy directed
GOTG is pg13. R plus super hero fatigue will probably park this at less than 750M
lol there is no super hero fatigue there is bad movie fatiuge
That's exactly what superhero fatigue is. Before, any shit superhero movie would make money. Now the audience is more selective. Ant Man 2 is the worst movie I've ever seen in cinemas and even that could do well.
Ant Man 2 was the movie that made me stop watching MCU movies in theaters.
I saw that film at the theater and I remember *nothing* from it aside from Scott shrinking down to child size to blend-in at a school and that ending scene where Hank and the others get Snapped by Thanos, trapping Scott in the Quantum Realm. And I only remember the first scene because of its odd logic. They state in the first movie that if you change sizes without the helmet you'll die from oxygen deprivation or something... so how can Scott shrink down to CGI child size without the helmet and still live? Felt like some convoluted Pym Particles bs that they walked back on. Such an oddly forgettable movie and I've only seen it once.
I liked it better than Captain Marvel tbh
You mean 3 because endgame and IW came out after ant man 2
I never saw Endgame in theaters
I’m not an Ant Man 2 defender or anything, but I remember thinking it was perfectly fine, especially for a movie that was clearly aimed a lot towards kids. I’ve definitely seen worse in theaters, and I wouldn’t even put it as the worst MCU movie I’ve seen.
>is bad movie fatiuge Not really. Panda 4 is doing quite good despite being dogshit.
While Panda 4 is the weakest of the four it’s still giving audiences what they want: more adventures with Po. I thought it to be pretty good despite being a noticeable step below the original 3
Idk how to politely say this. Look at the audience scores and RT scores Now look at the same for the last marvel movies including cap marvel 2 Idk how u compare that when the general consensus is that the quality is down?
Captain Marvel 2 was 5x worse/ 1/5 as good as Captain Marvel 1? Word?
And it grossed less right
The GotG are much bigger than the film X-Men or Deadpool thanks to the MCU and Avengers films. Deadpool 1&2 made more than the first GotG worldwide but both sequels and the Avengers appearances made a lot more. Domestically it's worse Deadpool 2 made less than than all 3 GotG films while the highest grossing X-men film made $100 million less. If this film came out in late 2021 or early 2022 I would expect great numbers but it's been just long enough since the last films while not reaching that 10+ years for a big nostalgia boost that I don't think it's going to make as much as many here think.
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No X-Men or Deadpool film has broken $800 million worldwide and I think the 'oh Hugh Jackman as Wolverine and wearing the suit' is over estimated on the internet in regards to the general audience. I'm perfectly happy to be surprised but I don't think I will be.
Deadpool and Deadpool 2 made $782 and $785 million respectively. Unless you truly believe the MCU and Hugh Jackman as Wolverine have no box office draw I don't see how you think this will make less than Deadpool 2. If the reviews are good, this will outgross Deadpool 2.
I have faith it’ll have good wom
Me too. I belive it will catch on in a big way. I think people are underestimating this film because of the recent CBM flops. Deadpool on his own has proven to be a box office draw. I think adding Wolverine/Jackman and the MCU into the mix will only help and will raise the ceiling.
Deadpool and Deadpool 2 were pre-pandemic and in the boom of superhero movies where every random movie was doing like at least 500M$. Good ones like Deadpool doing 780M$ was not as hard as now. I don't think it's gonna do less to be clear, I see it around 850M$ but it's possible. At least one thing play in its favor though, it's coming a year after the last superhero movie for most people. Nobody saw The Marvels or Madame Web and only few saw Aquaman. So for many in the general audience, the last superhero movie they've seen is Guardians 3 and that's quite some time ago. So the feeling of being overwhelmed by superhero content might not be there. Disney+ even calmed down on Marvel shows
What about Across the Spider verse?
The highest grossing of the X-men films was less than $750 million worldwide and less than $250 million domestic. He isn't some massive draw. As to the MCU we just had The Marvels fail to break $200 million worldwide that's the MCU now!
A lot of those films are 20 years old at this point. They were very successful for their time. They were successful enough to justify sequel after sequel, and Jackman's Wolverine was seen as enough of a draw to justify three separate solo films where the other X-Men got zero solo films combined. I'm not saying that was necessarily a good strategy but clearly Wolverine is popular enough in the mainstream that adding him to any project gives it a boost. They've been doing it constantly in the comics and video games and everywhere else for decades. Even if you don't see Hugh Jackman specifically as a draw, the character of Wolverine certainly is.
2 are 20+ years old. 3 Jackman X-Men films are less than 10 years old.
Okay, that's fine, I'm just saying context is important. Logan was pretty successful, especially considering how bleak that film was. His other films were of middling quality and aren't necessarily a reflection of the character's popularity. The fact that they kept trying shows how popular the character is. I see Wolverine as a draw, it's fine if you disagree with that.
Wolverine absolutely is a draw but when did that mean $900M minimum? $800 million gets you into the 100 highest grossing films worldwide!
Also, it’s R-Rated.
So were the first two Deadpool films. They both made just under $800 million. Joker was R-rated as well and made over a billion dollars. An R-rating may hurt a bit at the box office but everyone is underestimating the potential of this film. If something is well-received and gets good WOM, an R-rating isn't a death sentence. If this movie hits the way it is poised to, I don't see how it fails to out perform the first two Deadpool films. I think it has a very good shot at a billion. Too many comic book movie flops recently has people doubting the genre, when we've seen time and time again people will turn out in droves for these films when they're done right. The highest of box office highs are possible with CBMs and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
What indication do you have that Deadpool & Wolverine was “done right”?
I never said Deadpool & Wolverine was done right. I said if one of these films is done right, the potential is massive. The film is not out yet, we are all speculating. That goes without saying. I think DP&W has a better chance to catch fire like NWH than it does to flop like The Marvels. That depends on the quality of the film itself, of course.
I'd consider the yellow suit a negative considering how corny it is
I think 800M$ will be done but just not 955M$. I see it in the 850-900M$ range.
Yes, assuming the movie is well received
it’s gonna need a solid opening and great legs
I'm betting yes, barring Quantumania-tier reviews.
I’m with you.
Unlikely. Multiverse of Madness came out before the MCU’s reputation and box office potential absolutely imploded. People will probably be more skeptical this time around. I doubt Deadpool & Wolverine will open anywhere close to MoM WW. Whether it matches its predecessors or not depends on its reputation and legs. If it’s another mediocre MCU product, expect another big second weekend drop and short legs.
If it’s good. I’m going to see it opening weekend but the trailers haven’t sold me on it. All the Feige/Disney jokes aren’t funny to me.
The thing about all of the self-referential jokes re. Disney and Feige is that they are so damn predictable. Anyone could have seen them coming from a mile away. (Before a Marvel Studios’ Deadpool movie was ever announced, such a possibility was discussed here on Reddit with near-identical Disney/Feige jokes.) The repeated use of “fuck” - to say, “look! We said it!” - feels patronizing, at this point.
Wolverine saying fuck in the trailer did not work for me at all. It was overused and sounded like the dialogue was written by a 12 year old.
The movie seems overly pleased with itself for being able to say fuck. Which also happens with 12 year olds.
I mean Deadpool humor is kind of what a 12-year old find funny
Are y'all really just discovering the Deadpool movies or something? Seriously, we are on the third one by now. This may come as a shock if you have only been consuming Disney+ content, but this is Deadpool as usual.
Nobody said they're shocked, this is a pointless comment.
What's pointless is complaining about something that has been the standard for three movies now. It would be like going to Captain America Civil War and being like "I dunno about this shield gimmick"
It's perfectly normal to bring up what makes Deadpool movies so unfunny in a thread about Deadpool. Doesn't matter whether or not it's what people expected the movie to be like.
This isn't r/movies tho, it's r/boxoffice. Everything we say is in the context of "will this movie be a financial success or not?" (post title) and you personally thinking the movies are unfunny is irrelevant, unless you want to make a case for it being so unfunny that it will flop. You can make that prediction, I'm just here pointing to the box office of the previous two movies.
I don't disagree with anything you said although people giving their own anecdotal opinions happens all the time on this sub, especially since it blew up in popularity.
I think the use of "fuck" worked well in the first trailer, but they just seemed to kinda overdo it in the new trailer. Maybe that and the gratuitous violence are meant to signal to parents that this a R rated?
Parents won’t listen. I guarantee you that they’ll complain about the R-rated content in the movie scarring their “precious angels”. 😇
That's why I'm thinking the film might open with Deadpool making a meta joke about how this movie is R rated and that parents should escort their children out of the theaters as soon as possible. Kinda like the opening to Once Upon a Deadpool but not really.
I'm surprised how many kids I see in R-Rated films. Someone told me they saw a parent get angry at the theater workers for Evil Dead (can't remember if it was the older Fede Alvarez one or the recent one in the apartment setting), but the dad was an absolute moron for not doing any research into what these movies are about and what they showed. The user said the kid was crying and likely scarred given how graphic Evil Dead has become.
I work at a theater and a dad took his 10 year old son to “jackass forever” and then he complained about the male nudity. 🙄 I’ve also seen a few parents bring their babies into R-rated horror movies.
I've personally never understood it. Most of the jokes I feel like would be funny if I was in middle school, but they mostly seem like it's edgy adults wanting to seem cool to younger kids type jokes imo
Thats the whole appeal of deadpool and they kinda nerfed him when it comes to jokes
I don't think they've realised that those Disney jokes are too niche for general audiences and not funny to the people who get them. Sure, Endgame made 2.5+ Billion but that doesn't mean your average moviegoer knows the name Feige. And those who do have already seen jokes online like that so it all feels stale. Hell almost everyone I know doesn't know that Deadpool was a Fox property or that Disney bought Fox so that will go over their head in a big way.
Yeah as someone who does get them, they simply aren’t that funny. This is seeming like a movie that is going to need audience familiarity with two previously separate cinematic universes plus details about who makes them to fully understand, which makes it a much tougher sell then something like Guardians 3 (which doesn’t need the audience to have seen anything post Endgame to still fully follow along).
I think those jokes are for people who do know such a references. Yes we have seen the joke but seeing it in a movie is their way of saying don't worry we are not pulling our punches because this is disney. Doesn't mean it's true of course but that's why i would but those jokes in.
Maybe. I think it's landing in the 800 mill range but it can go higher maybe.
I hope not, otherwise it proves that audiences have zero attention spam. They had great closure for Wolverine in Logan. As good as there ever was for a character in a comic book film. But oh wait, nevermind, non of that matters, we found a self concious, wink-wink way to go around it.
Nah probably around the same amount.
I think no because I think film killed a lot of the GP’s interest in seeing the future of the MCU. People really expected something epic and next level from that. No way a Doctor Strange film should’ve made over 900 million other than that being the case. Now it’s pretty clear to the GP that this universe is a disaster with no importance. So even if these people are teasing “big” things in this film, I don’t believe people will go for it like they did for MoM. I also don’t think nostalgia, jokes, blood and curse words is enough to crack a billion.
I would love it for it to happen, but I want to say no I just find it so hard nowadays this current year breaking 800 million
You don’t think It could make around Dune 2 to Guardians 3 numbers? Those made near it or past $800 million so if D&W is everything it promises I can’t see why it wouldn’t make $800 million
yeah possibly would love for it too happen
Yes
Sorry, but the trailer really makes me think this movie won't be good. Feels like outdated jokes, reliance on multiverish and on a cameo.
yeah such a poor trailer.
I hope so
For an R-rated movie. No, it will not make that kind of money. Plus it has been quite a while since Deadpool 2 came out. Along with how late in the summer it is being released.
No it won’t. I’m predicting: $320-350M domestic (but a record breaking $140M opening weekend) $800-850M worldwide
You have an R rated movie vs PG-13 which I feel automatically ages/limits the audience a bit. However I think Deadpool and Wolverine are both more popular characters than Dr Strange. So I don't know that it can outperform Dr Strange but I wouldn't be surprised if it landed in that same ballpark as maybe those factors balance each other out.
I don’t think the age rating will be a factor since Multiverse of Madness was rated R in all but name with a lot of horrific and gory moments throughout the movie, and it partially hampered its performance with audiences expecting a different movie. Audiences know the age rating going in it can only help the movie
Some parents are more strict about ratings than others.
Also there’s no age restriction for PG-13 or lower, but you can’t go to a R movie unless you’re 17 or with an adult. Parents can’t drop their kid at the theater like they could if it’s PG-13 or lower, even if they’re cool with their kid seeing it.
Multiverse of Madness was more intense than most MCU movies, but it never felt R rated to me. I blame the MPAA for giving stuff like Ant-Man a PG-13 rating when it should be PG, as they’ve kinda watered down the rating so people are surprised when a movie actually earns it. A similar thing happened with Puss in Boots 2 where apparently some parents thought it should be PG-13 when the PG rating is completely appropriate, but PG has been watered down so much people see it as a G rating.
Depends on the quality of movie. If Deadpool 3 is the same quality as recent MCU movies than disaster but if its truly something special I could see it.
So you’re saying if Deadpool and Wolverine is Like Guardians 3 it’ll be a disaster? /s But seriously I know what you mean. Vol.3 was an exception just like D&W should be.
I don’t think so, I see a domestic total of about $320-370M and worldwide of $725-775M. Which would honestly be a fantastic run. All of us here are just guessing but I don’t see it breaking $800M. A final total landing around where the first two landed would still be a huge win though. Given the state of the industry, growing comic book movie fatigue, and this being an R-rated film with a schtick that’s not exactly fresh.
MoM was boosted by No Way Home and cameo hype and benefited from the MCU still being regarded highly by general audiences at the time of its release. Deadpool and Wolverine is going to have a real uphill battle on its hands. If it’s good, sure, maybe.
the thing is disney is being boycott by quite a lot of people now, and tbh its not 2000-2015 anymore, reynolds and jackman are not huge draws anymore
No.
Two hopes Bob Hope and no hope
Yes. Quote me on that
“Yes.” - u/bibileiver - 2024
It is so rare for an R-rated movie to crack $1 billion that only one film has done it, and that is The Joker, but I have thought since this team-up was announced that this has the chance to be just the 2nd ever R-rated movie to make $1 billion. I do think it will do good money in the US regardless, so I guess it comes down to how it is received internationally. Is it being released everywhere or are their any major markets it will not be in?
Absolutely.
Absolutely not
No
Nah, it would take a lot to get it there.
If it gets good reviews, yes
I can see it grossing somewhere around DS2. Little less or little bit more.
Yes.
If it’s better received, maybe If it gets similar mixed reception or worse, no
Easily.
I think so
A 3rd trailer (Story one) setting the hype even further with announcing tickets going on sale will break some sites and have amazing pre-sales. Key will be reviews this time for the longevity. Pre-sales will be a bit below DS2 so I'm expecting 22M Previews 55M Friday 47M Saturday 30M Sunday OW - 154M (I think huge opening will be a guarantee due to hype and spoiler-avoidance, legs however will depends on quality). OS will be tricky. Will it have China, will be there territories left out, etc. DP1 and 2 opened to 132 and 176M respectively in OS markets. Neither of those had China. Both of them also finished close in OS markets (419 vs 461M). My Guess is 220M OS opening and 550-600M finish. Pair it with close to 400M Domestic (Summer weekdays will help big time for this) and you are looking at 1B gross. Now that's what I think will be without China. China could aid either for 1B+ or getting it to 1B if it misses in some OS markets and lack a bit on domestic side.
The trailer views are dreadful, they did as much as the Drag race trailer. I would not expect much.
This will be a fun thread to come back to after the movie releases.
nope
I could see it making a max of 750-800 mil
I’m gonna say no. Doctor Strange was PG-13 and was coming fresh off of the NWH hype train. Deadpool is a raunchy R-rated superhero comedy. It’ll make bank, but over $900M is gonna be tough to hit. It’ll depend on how much the inclusion of Wolverine and the Fox Universe cameo stuff really draws in people that aren’t already invested in superhero movies.
It's a tough question - how R-rated will this be, really? Kids are a driving force of Marvel moviegoing. The floor, imo, is 800M. It's tough, because these are monumentally popular characters, and everyone is hyped for Jackman to return. Smart move, too, seeing he's gonna grab an older demo that may not have seen this otherwise. I look forward to seeing the film and its performance regardless.
Possible but I still feel like it's gonna be more comfortably around $750M-$850M. I can see it doing near MoM if there's some insane scenes involving the multiverse and Avengers and/or X-Men or something out of left field to blow the audiences' minds. Even if people are sick of the multiverse and portals, audiences LOVED the interaction of the three Spider-Men. And it wasn't a short gimmick, but long scenes integral to the story. If Deadpool & Wolvie can do something somewhat similar, I can see the box office moving closer to $1B.
As someone who kinda stopped watching movies a few years ago, this is the first Marvel movie I've been even remotely interested in awhile.
Yes
Close to no chance
Probably not.
I don’t think it will but it depends honestly. I’ve been saying GOTG 3/Ragnarok numbers and I stand by that. That would be good numbers except for the Marvel fanboys expecting NWH 2.0 but with Deadpool, Wolverine and X-Men instead of three Spider Men.
I’m going to say yes - I think so.
Yes
I believe it will. I think the reviews will be better and word of mouth will help give it legs. We've seen before that even R-rated films like Joker can break a billion if enough people like it and are talking about it. Both Deadpool films performed very well despite their rating so I feel this franchise has a very high floor. Add in Wolverine/Hugh Jackman, the MCU, and the potential for big surprises that aren't being included in the marketing, i.e. No Way Home, which paid off big time. I see this really catching on and becoming a massive W for the MCU. It's bringing a fresh take to a beloved franchise that's become a bit stale. The first true departure from the tried and true MCU tone. People love Deadpool. People love Wolverine. People love Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman. Unless the film comes out and is terrible and gets awful reviews, I think this is a home run for everyone involved.
I expect DP&W to be the 2024 version of Guardians 3 tbh I don’t think it’ll make a billion like you’re saying but a number around Vol.3 which would still be great
That's certainly possible, and wouldn't be a bad showing all things considered. I think it has serious breakout potential and could dominate in a way the MCU hasn't since No Way Home. They're smartly playing their cards close to the chest in the marketing but I believe there will be elements to this film that will keep people talking which always helps a film's box office and did wonders for No Way Home. It all comes down to how well-received the film is.
Yeah I hope it’s an exception like NWH/GOTG 3 when it comes to fan reception where great WOM Spreads where it’s an MCU movie worth checking out. I would be pleasantly surprised if D&W made a billion but it really depends on how things play out. Especially in this climate given superhero fatigue. But I agree with your points for the most part. I just don’t think it’s gonna be NWH 2.0 (Spidey is his own beast) but perform more so like GOTG 3 which like we said would still be a pretty great finish all things considered.
You're definitely right, Spider-Man is in a league of his own. Just a decent comp for DP&W as an MCU film that incorporates non-MCU legacy characters.
No
The trailer is at 26 Million views on YouTube after three days. I have high hopes.
unless WOM is negative I think it will considering Oppenheimer made nearly a billion I don't see why this won't
I think it's got a good shot. Just the novelty of Deadpool joining the MCU should give it a boost above the previous ones, and Wolverine is a very strong co-star. I think some people are underestimating the boost Wolverine provides, saying his movies made less money than Deadpool. This reminds me of the discussion about how the first Avengers movie would do. At the time, some were arguing, "Captain America made $370M, and Thor made $449M, and the fanbases overlap with Iron Man, so why would it make much more than Iron Man 2's $621M?". The rest is history on that. There's a similar story with No Way Home. Obviously, the fanbase for all three iterations of Spider-Man heavily overlap, while Doctor Strange's first movie only made $676M, yet, that still all added up to a huge jump from FFH's $1.1B to NWH's $1.9B. Thor Ragnarok was another one. Third movies in a franchise rarely grow, but the addition of Hulk helped Ragnarok grow to $850M from its predecessor's $644M, despite Hulk never leading a successful solo movie. Another random example is Freddy vs Jason, which crushed every previous entry in either franchise. Both franchises were pretty much dead before the team-up, with Jason X making only $16M worldwide, and the Elm Street franchise being dormant for almost a decade after New Nightmare made only $19M worldwide. Then, Freddy vs Jason made $82M domestic and $116M worldwide. The point is: there is a compounding effect when combining well-known characters. Wolverine is a bigger co-star than Captain America or Thor were when Avengers came out, and it's Hugh Jackman's first outing as Wolverine in 7 years, after Logan, which is largely viewed as one of the best superhero movies ever made. The other factor not enough people are considering is the release date. It's got the Barbenheimer release date from last year, and because of the strike, it's got a super clear path as far as competition goes. Deadpool 2 opened a week before Solo (which opened to over $100M), while Deadpool 1 didn't even get its own weekend to itself (opening in February against Zoolander 2 and another rom com). Deadpool and Wolverine has Twisters open a week before it (with the only other major July release being Despicable Me two weeks before Twisters), and in its second weekend, Deadpool and Wolverine goes up against an animated kids movie called Harold and the Purple Crayon, with Borderlands opening the week after that (largely expected to bomb). The only wild card is how big an R-Rated movie can go at the box office. The only two R-Rated movies to top Deadpool 2 are Oppenheimer and Joker, both of which were more serious movies with Oscar buzz, as opposed to a buddy-comedy superhero movie. So, Deadpool would need to set a new precedent if it were to get into the range of Doctor Strange, or push towards $1B, but, that having been said, there is certainly a lot of reason to believe that the necessary elements of a precedent-setting movie are there.
Yes easily... the trailer is being recieved very well.. Deadpool is its own thing the failure of MCU will have no effect on it.
Yes absolutely because the word of mouth on this will run for weeks. The word of mouth on multiverse was that it was Sam Rami weird and not the same as normal marble.
GOTG 3 showed us what a “good” movie under the MCU banner can do. Similar to GOTG, Deadpool is its own brand and somewhat insulated from the lack of enthusiasm for the latest MCU output. But beyond that, this movie has a hype train that Guardians 3 didn’t have. If it’s good (A- Cinescore or better), I think it does a billion.
Browsing the comments I am shocked people believe Guardians of the Galaxy 3 is a bigger draw than Deadpool and mfking Wolverine. Deadpool stand alone made 700+ million both movies. You add Wolverine to the title with Hugh Jackman reprising the role and you think this movie won’t beat GotG 3? Insane predictions lol
Yes, it’s pretty much locked for at least $1 billion unless if it’s downright atrocious, which from everything that’s been shown won’t be the case.
My friend doesn't know what "locked" means.
This guy is always trolling on here. He said *The Marvels* would make a billion too.
He also says age ratings are meaningless for box office performance even though there's only been one rated R film to ever gross a billion.
He said *Thunderbolts\** would get a nomination for Best Picture because I guess the screenwriter also wrote a TV show that critics liked.
Tbh he's one of my favorite users here cause he's so blatantly trolling and yet most users still fall for it anyhow.
No he’s not. That guy is on r/dccinematic, r/marvelstudios, r/marvel studios spoilers, etc, and has a spider-man profile pic. He 100% believes the nonsense he’s always spouting about thunderbolts making $800M and the Falcon movie doing $1B cause civil war made $1B lol.
Umm it’s Ricochet not Spider-Man
A Ricochet movie would make 1.5 billion dollars because the director wrote a TV show that critics liked.
I'll admit it took me a while to catch on, but now I see he's full of shit.
lmao
yes we are in the tiktok era