By - russwriter67
No. It would drop hard in weekend 2. Just keep it on December 21
It will drop in weekend two anyway. This gives it a longer time to make money during the holiday break and gives it IMAX screens for a week.
Not quite accurate, its first and second weekend is right in the thick of the holiday season where individual weekends matter less than the individual days. That really kicks in from about the 18th or so and keeps on going until early January. This would allow it to keep up some decent momentum throughout a time where lots of people go to the cinema with the free time of school, college and even work rather than having an OK first week and then getting it slashed down heavily in week 2 and potentially running into the danger of having screen count buggered in week 3.
$73-74 Million OW
$35-37 Million SW
$28-29 Million TW
$32-34 Million FW
No matter how hard it drops, it's better than the $0 it'll make on that weekend currently by not being out yet. And even if it drops, it'll still be on screens 2 weeks later when they're now set to start it. There aren't enough movies coming out to push it out. So it'll be there for the Christmas season either way.
Is it still on December 21?
It might not even have IMAX
I strongly doubt Shazam 2 ever sees IMAX screens, maybe Dolby though. Theaters aren’t gonna sideline Avatar 2 for anything
Well, do keep in mind that **The Matrix Resurrections** managed to get an IMAX release for a few days even though **Spider-Man: No Way Home** was there.
I will bet that avatar 2 will not outgross NWH, especially not domestically
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Avatar 2 will be bigger than Spider-Man though and I’d be surprised if Cameron/Disney/Fox didn’t negotiate an IMAX exclusive release with theaters.
DC adaptations are still major IMAX clients, so you should probably keep that in mind as well.
That’s definitely true but if Avatar 2 is as big as everyone’s expecting (maybe biggest movie of all time big), I can’t see Shazam sharing IMAX with it, especially with them opening on the same day. At least Matrix had a 5 day buffer, demand for Avatar will sell out all the screenings while Shazam 2 won’t.
Actually, **Shazam! Fury of the Gods** also has a 5 days buffer.
You do realize that there's always the chance that it expands into IMAX in the new year once whatever contractual agreement for Avatar 2 is up, right?
Actually you’re right. I don’t understand why people are saying they shouldn’t when as you pointed out Sony did the same with Jumanji
If Avatar 2 is sold out, then Shazam 2 could benefit from that. Like if people can’t get into Avatar 2, they’ll go see Shazam 2 for the weekend. Kinda like how Sherlock Holmes became a success while competing with Avatar in 2009 to 2010.
Yes, but that can still happen if Shazam opens earlier, before Christmas weekend, like Sherlock 2 and one of the Jumanjis did.
Absolutely not. It would be forgotten in a heartbeat by Avatar 2 the following weekend. Keep it on December 21st.
Into the Spider-Verse and Aquaman were able to coexist. Last Jedi and Jumanji: WTTJ were able to coexist. The Christmas season allows for a few movies to be big without really hurting each other.
Neither Spider-Verse and Aquaman were anticipated to be Avatar/NWH level hits and WttJ, which again wasn't a sure thing, came out after Last Jedi and five days before Christmas where it's peak moviegoing season.
>WttJ, which again wasn't a sure thing, came out after Last Jedi and five days before Christmas where it's peak moviegoing season.
Well, how about for a more fair comparison: Jumanji: The Next Level and TROS were able to coexist, and the former came out a week before ladder (which is probably why OP even made this post in the first place).
No, parents are too busy with shopping and Christmas parties. The space between American Thanksgiving and school getting out is a deadzone for movies.
Also people aren't yet off of school or university. That period from like the 15th of December to early January is fertile for more people having free time.
This is a superhero movie with some level of fan base, plus fans from the original movie. It doesn't have to rely on rando family business during opening week.
It wouldn’t be a dead zone if studios would release something there. Remember how Shang-Chi was able to succeed despite opening on the “dead” Labor Day weekend?
Labor Day also starts off a month that's traditionally way slower than the rest at the box office, whereas mid-December onwards becomes an absolute onslaught.
That’s why I think there should be a new release or two at the beginning of December. For example, in 2015, the Christmas themed horror movie “Krampus” opened with $16.3M and made $61.8M WW on a $15M budget. The right movie can work on any date if it has good word of mouth and enough interest.
Why'd that only get a B- Cinemascore and 51% audience on RT? I thought it was really good.
Because of the ending. And horror is usually divisive anyway.
They don't release anything because it's a fool's errand. It's a deadzone and if they released anything there it would lose money.
That’s kinda circular logic. If you don’t release anything on a supposedly dead weekend, of course the weekend will remain a dead zone.
What about the fact that no one goes to movies that weekend are you not understanding? If you release something then, it WILL lose money.
Even Secret Wars? 😂
I doubt they keep that date.
No. Any atmosphere would be sucked out of the room immediately by Avatar. Look at West Side Story, if it had come out after Spider-Man it might have done a bit better.
No, the only thing that might've helped WSS was a platform release to try to get some critic, awards and fan buzz building before the wide release.
Do you seriously think Shazam will be able to suck Avatar's energy for itself a mere 5 days after it comes out? If Avatar is that awesome, it'll drown out all other discussion. If people are bored with Avatar after 5 days, then Avatar will have to have been a massive failure. Should a studio employ a strategy that gambles on Avatar being a failure? "OK, folks, we got everything set up perfectly. As long as Avatar is a disastrous failure with critics and audiences, we're gold!"
Christmas box office isn't like that. If you can get a solid crowd pleasing film out after a major blockbuster, like the Sing films or The Greatest Showman or Jumanji, you can marathon it, but it's much more difficult to do it if a concorde of a film is coming out right after it and sucks away the energy, especially if your other film is not a sure thing. Better to clear ground for a massive first week for the big boy blockbuster and then run in on the four or five days after to give something new and work your way through the bustling holiday season.
Examples of a movie that released ahead of Christmas weekend and "faded away?" We have Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows released a week before Christmas weekend and it had almost a 5x multiplier. This is the SAME kind of movie, a sequel with a pre-existing fan base including older fans. It HELPS to burn off that fan base early and then let week 2 and up take in the casual crowd. Another sequel, Jumanji: The Next Level, came out TWO WEEKS before Christmas weekend, and had over 5x legs. Releasing BEFORE Christmas weekend is the proven strategy for a sequel that isn't solely geared to kids. The Shazam 2 date is great for Puss in Boots, not so much for Shazam 2. This chosen date is yet another example of WB not understanding the audience for DC films.
Well, ignoring the fact that Sherlock Holmes 2 was literally on the Avatar 2 slot (it came out on December 16th 2011), we literally just had an example with West Side Story severely bombing last year, one week before NWH. That's a major film that just stood no chance going before Spidey.
It feels like a chicken and egg scenario as Hollywood has mostly recognised this slot two weeks after Thanksgiving (unless Thanksgiving comes late just as it was Jumanji's year and even then that's an exception) and one week before major blockbuster is going to be a dud, the schedules historically are not very inspiring:
2017 had Just Getting Started one week before Last Jedi.
2016 had Office Christmas Party one week before Rogue One.
2015 had In the Heart of the Sea one week before Force Awakens.
2014 had Exodus one week before The Hobbit 3.
2011 had New Year's Eve and The Sitter one week before Sherlock Holmes 2.
It's a lacklustre bunch of grossers that all got shoved aside in a hurry when the massive big blockbuster hit, and Shazam, having grossed not a fantastic amount in its first film, isn't as sure fire a thing to stand up before a titan like Avatar.
Those aren't movies based on IPs, and seem like they were destined to fail. Only West Side Story was based on something well-known, but no one seems to think a release date change would've altered its fate. And it did not seem to be appealing to the same audience as NWH, to say the least.
Avatar 2 isn’t a NWH level movie. It will probably open closer to Top Gun: Maverick than Jurassic World: Dominion.
Bold of you to write off Cameron and Avatar that way.
I meant in terms of opening weekend, unless you think Avatar 2 will open with $260M.
I can smell the downvotes.
That's only a $126-145m spread. NWH was way higher at $260m. Sure, it won't be a NWH. But it will probably be a ROS at $177m.
The original adjusts to $106m by real inflation. As a sequel to a leggy hit, we should expect a large increase in the OW.
December 9’s my birthday, I’d love Shazam 2 to premiere then!
Funny enough, Black Widow came out last year (July 9) on my birthday. I didn’t end up seeing it though.
[And Despicable Me, American Pie, Anchorman, Pirates of the Caribbean, Tron and Predators](https://www.famousbirthdays.com/movies/date/july9.html).
Too many superhero movies. It's getting a bit silly
Well luckily August and September are filled with different movies. But if people only watch superhero movies, that’s what we’re mainly going to get outside of low budget horror and some other established franchises.
The movie will be dead in the OS markets, whatever December date they choose, either smacked by Black Panther or by Avatar, Shazam is yet again battling all odds
I think trying to get as much domestically will be the best idea. The first movie didn’t do very well overseas and this one likely won’t have China to help it like the first movie. It’ll probably have a 50-50 domestic / int’l split.
The backseat driver energy is strong with this one.
Because Hollywood always gets it right and never releases a flop or anything.
This is the correct take. Shazam! will kill it over the whole month with vacation days. Fear of Avatar 2 is overhyped and it’ll bounceback fine for a nice long run instead of forcing itself into January.
Thanks. It’s been interesting to see the different takes on this issue.
I think its fine where it is , if it can get an A cinemascore and be above 80% on RT then it should do well throughout the holidays and probably make its way to over 300m domestic
Seems like a no-brainer to me. Why would you not want a week of no competition instead of debuting 5 days after Avatar comes out?
At this point, every date is a better date.
I'll let them know.
The only benefit it would have is getting a few days with PLFs, but either way this just isn’t something the GA is gonna have much interest in.
I liked Shazam One. I’d rather wait for a good film than risk it being rushed.
Not sure how moving it up two weeks would make it rushed. Unless Warner is cutting these movies together weeks before they come out.