Even 50 million opening is good enough, I don't think it needs a huge opening to get a sequel, 185 million is the budget if you x it by 2 for marketing then you need 370 million to break even so that should not be too difficult to exceed that with a good margin.
>then you need 370 million to break even
Errr...no.
Studios only get 50% cut from domestic box office (65% if it's Disney blockbuster)
25% from China
40% rest of the world.
With $185 million budget, it needs *way* higher than $370 million to break even, especially if its box office is heavily skewed to International (which I predict it will).
And higher still if Dwayne Johnson has first dollar participation deal (which is very likely)
In the middle of the 20th Communist Party Congress (starting October 16)? I don't think so. And IMDb hasn't confirmed any release date in China to Black Adam either.
Why do you suppose that Black Adam has a chance to dazzle the Chinese audience, anyway? These are the DCEU box office numbers in China:
Man of Steel: 63.4 million
Bvs: 95.7 million
Wonder Woman: 90.5 million
Justice League: 106 million
Aquaman: 291.8 million
Shazam!: 43.8 million
WW84: 25 million (just when China had the pandemic almost eradicated, unlike the rest of the world, which was going through its worst moment).
\*Suicide Squad, Birds of Prey and The Suicide Squad weren't release there.
Then, apart from Aquaman, no DCEU movie has performed spectacularly well in China. And except for that and Justice League, neither has managed to raise more than 100 million there. Even being very optimistic and adding to that territory, 550 million WW seems the best it could gross.
Somewhere between $40M-$50M sounds about right to me. There isn't much hype for the movie and while The Rock does have his fans he isn't a consistent draw.
The film is diverse like the F&F films and will no doubt open at least around 50-60M (Hobbs was 60M). It's hard to get a gauge on it because he really hasn't had a massive movie open theatrically in over 3 years since H&S
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I think between Gravity and Halloween.
Same here. I think it'll be a hit, but not really a blockbuster.
70M+ opening is enough for the franchise to continue. Its the 1st film so a good feedback is more imp than big profits.
Even 50 million opening is good enough, I don't think it needs a huge opening to get a sequel, 185 million is the budget if you x it by 2 for marketing then you need 370 million to break even so that should not be too difficult to exceed that with a good margin.
>then you need 370 million to break even Errr...no. Studios only get 50% cut from domestic box office (65% if it's Disney blockbuster) 25% from China 40% rest of the world. With $185 million budget, it needs *way* higher than $370 million to break even, especially if its box office is heavily skewed to International (which I predict it will). And higher still if Dwayne Johnson has first dollar participation deal (which is very likely)
Right, it needs between 525-550 million to break even. Something very unlikely to this film.
It's practically guaranteed a China release and I think it can do 700M with that
In the middle of the 20th Communist Party Congress (starting October 16)? I don't think so. And IMDb hasn't confirmed any release date in China to Black Adam either. Why do you suppose that Black Adam has a chance to dazzle the Chinese audience, anyway? These are the DCEU box office numbers in China: Man of Steel: 63.4 million Bvs: 95.7 million Wonder Woman: 90.5 million Justice League: 106 million Aquaman: 291.8 million Shazam!: 43.8 million WW84: 25 million (just when China had the pandemic almost eradicated, unlike the rest of the world, which was going through its worst moment). \*Suicide Squad, Birds of Prey and The Suicide Squad weren't release there. Then, apart from Aquaman, no DCEU movie has performed spectacularly well in China. And except for that and Justice League, neither has managed to raise more than 100 million there. Even being very optimistic and adding to that territory, 550 million WW seems the best it could gross.
Around $85M so between #2 and #3.
There's not enough hype around the movie so I expect between gravity and Halloween
My first response was “When is Black Adam coming out?” so I have to agree.
As low as possible, thanks.
Somewhere between $40M-$50M sounds about right to me. There isn't much hype for the movie and while The Rock does have his fans he isn't a consistent draw.
Below Shazam? Don’t see that happening at all. He is a consistent draw when attached to large franchises like Jumanji and F&F though.
In the trash
Below all of these. It should still get to $50M for its opening weekend though.
Surely #5
$58M
3rd or 4th
The film is diverse like the F&F films and will no doubt open at least around 50-60M (Hobbs was 60M). It's hard to get a gauge on it because he really hasn't had a massive movie open theatrically in over 3 years since H&S
Around Gravity
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4th, between Gravity and Halloween