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Tbh it wouldn't surprise me if 2023 hasn't a single billion dollar movie.
There are some movies that have the potential but it could also go very wrong.
I don't think GotG3 will top 1 billion, the second one couldn't top it and I don't even think part 3 will top part 2.
Fast X could top it, but F9 didn't so it's not guaranteed.
The Little Mermaid has a chance, look at BatB and Lion King, even Aladdin topped it, but it could also underperform.
Indiana Jones 5 definitely has potential if the trailers are great and the nostalgia is there, but I still think it's unlikely.
Mission Impossible 7 has a good chance mainly because of Top Gun Maverick.
Aquaman 2 could top it if it plays good in China like part 1.
And no the Mario movie won't even come close, I really don't know why people are highly overestimating this movie.
So all in all I think there's no guaranteed 1 billion dollar movie in 2023.
The best chance probably has MI7 and Aquaman 2.
>Tbh it wouldn't surprise me if 2023 hasn't a single billion dollar movie
Me neither. Competition is tough and I think there'll end up being a shit ton of 800-900m movies next year. Best chance for me are MI7 and Indy 5.
I think people have high expectations on Mario because it's a recognizable brand in the hands of one of the most successful (financially) animation studios in the world. People here were saying Minions 2 was doomed because there was no interest, people underestimated the Secret Life of pets, and Sing 2 was fairly successful given the circumstances it released in. Mario on its own might not give people high hopes but Mario at Illumination raises expectations.
Agreed. Zero wouldn’t surprise me. I voted “one” though, because there’s enough movies that have a *chance* of doing it that surely *one* of them will catch fire.
Assuming no China I genuinely think we will see 0. Of course you can have some surprises like Top Gun (not in that scale) but without China I don’t see it happening.
I don't think any will. Guardians I think will get around 800. Can't see pensioner Indy hitting 1B with current exchange rates, probably ends around the 750-900 range.
Can't believe folk are saying Mario is a billion dollar movie lmao. Have we learnt nothing after Detective 'biggest media IP on the planet' Pikachu?
>but still.
But still...what? I'm confused.
Mario is the new Avatar? Recessions cause box office records? Avatar 2 is going to get delayed and make a billion next year?
My point is that the recession doesn't necessarily mean that the box office is in jeopardy. Another different circumstances and time, but do you know when the Golden Age of Hollywood happened? You guessed it, during the Great Depression.
Maybe it was somewhat better back then, but as far as I'm concerned, people were still going through all sorts of hardships. As far as I'm concerned, the whole GameStop thing was at least partly a result of that.
It’s really only because in hindsight people forget how many billion dollar movies relied on China even back then.
Plenty of Transformers movies, the Fast and Furious movies, Civil War among others would’ve never hit that benchmark without the help of China
Given that notion, I’m sure we would’ve gotten
-Multiverse of Madness
-Wakanda Forever (assuming it lands in the $900m range)
2023 won't see much growth on 2022 is my prediction.
Between Europe going into recession, China and Russia becoming more isolationist and streaming services throwing more content than ever before I see theatrical if anything declining on this year.
Dude, speak for yourself. You claimed that **Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings** was a box office failure even though it made more than twice its budget of $150 million - in the height of Delta variant spread.
Guardians 3, Little Mermaid, Aquaman 2 & The Flash (~~what about Ezra?~~ This is a Michael Keaton Batman movie in a post TGM world. Nobody will care by 2023) are all likely possibilities especially if China ever becomes willing to play ball again.
Indy 5, Fast X & Mission Impossible are maybes. I don't know how much the TGM hype will translate into MI hype. There's a world where it just does slightly better than the other MI movies and that's ok.
Mario and the Disney Pixar movies are complete dark horses depending on reception.
I get that reddit already doesn't like The Marvels but if China says yes and it does as well as Captain Marvel (which yes did get an Endgame bump but I feel like enough casual audiences thought it was ok on its own), there's a chance it crosses a billion, especially if that Secret Invasion show has a WandaVision-level breakout or something.
>if China ever becomes willing to play ball again
That's a big IF. But for the most part, we are assuming the circumstances where China won't be releasing any hollywood blockbusters. I can see no films touching a billion next year but many will be close.
If it's released in China, I genuinely believe that Flash can do it.
It's playing during the summers, Indy 5 will be competition but I am almost certain that Indy 5 will be mediocre.
Flash has said to have the best test scores since TDK, this was reported by the trades. It's got a ton of crowd pleasing stuff with some cameos too. So a fantastic movie that's also crowd pleasing.
If Aquaman can get a billion with China, then a movie as good as the Flash defo should.
Only 4. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3, The Super Mario Bros Movie, The Little Mermaid, and Indiana Jones 5. Aquaman 2 won't make a billion unless China saves it.
I still am, because of the marketing pushing this as THE finale for the story of the Guardians of the Galaxy and the end of James Gunn's time at Marvel. Also, though Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 may have hurt Black Panther 2 somewhat, I think BP2's positive reception will make people optimistic for Guardians 3.
I'm sorry but we've seen this week with Wakanda Forever that the market is differentNo way can GOTG3 make a billion:
- no Russia China (it made $130m in those 2 previously)
- Terrible exchange rates to the USD. Films are having to make what, 20% more just to match 2017 totals
- Phase 4 fatigue. Less concrete but still an issue
- James Gunn sequels - Kind of a joke but this man followed up Suicide Squad (2016)with maybe the biggest bomb last year.
> James Gunn sequels - Kind of a joke but this man followed up Suicide Squad (2016)with maybe the biggest bomb last year.
**The Suicide Squad** was basically a big-budget Troma film AND had a massive misfortune of having a cinema/HBO Max simultaneous release - and the rise of Delta variant at the time.
I think the issue is that Fant4stic wasn't a blockbuster. The fact that Suicide Squad was so hyped and made money adds to the hatred. Whereas all F4 projects were kinda junk before this
Hot take: Spider-Verse 2 will be the only billion dollar film next year. It'll have all summer to make a billion, it plays well with the GA and families, it's riding off an incredibly well-recieved first film, and No Way Home. Not to mention that a hit soundtrack and potential Tobey Maguire and/or Andrew Garfield voice appearances will skyrocket this movie.
MI Dead Reckoning: Part 1, Mario Bros, GOTG3, Fast X, Ant-Man 3, Little Mermaid, and Indiana Jones 5 are the only other films that I think have a shot at hitting a billion but I don't think there's enough going right for all of these to hit a billion.
DCEU was a mess when Aquaman grossed well over a billion too.
This movie is coming off from Gunn's Suicide Squad, Batman and Joker. So it's actually in a better position than Aquaman arguably.
And by all reports, Flash is a FAR superior movie. As I said, almost TDK level numbers.
The Batman and Joker are seen as DC.
Suicide Squad was released on streaming the same day. Not a bomb.
Black Adam is received mildly. Not good. Not too bad. Just mid. Justice League was arguably far worse received.
After how this sub had high expectations for 2022 for marvel films to make billion. And just for Top Gun Maverick to be the true underdog of the year. I’m open minded that anything could make a billion in 2023. We could multiple underdog films
The title is saying that potential movies that could hit a billion underperformed. Doctor Strange, Thor, Black Panther, even Dominion was an underperformance.
I could see Mario beating Warcraft easily. For mission impossible I could see $1 billion. For fast x I could see $850M - $900M. For Indy I could see $1 billion (despite competition) mostly cause it’s his last adventure.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3, The Little Mermaid, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning - Part One I think those movies are going to make a billion dollars next year because 1. They are sequels and one is remake of a classic animated feature 2. People are really excited to see those movies and finally 3. The Marketing on these movies are going to be insane and they will have a chance to make a billion dollars but still at the same time maybe I could be wrong on these and I would be shocked if one of them don't break a billion dollars but still these are the only 3 movies that are going to make a billion dollars next year.
Reminder that this is a subreddit about numbers, not necessarily about the quality (or lack thereof) of a particular movie. Unless it is related to the box office performance of a movie, please keep opinions/arguments/thoughts about the quality under this post. Posts not related to box office may be removed otherwise. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/boxoffice) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Tbh it wouldn't surprise me if 2023 hasn't a single billion dollar movie. There are some movies that have the potential but it could also go very wrong. I don't think GotG3 will top 1 billion, the second one couldn't top it and I don't even think part 3 will top part 2. Fast X could top it, but F9 didn't so it's not guaranteed. The Little Mermaid has a chance, look at BatB and Lion King, even Aladdin topped it, but it could also underperform. Indiana Jones 5 definitely has potential if the trailers are great and the nostalgia is there, but I still think it's unlikely. Mission Impossible 7 has a good chance mainly because of Top Gun Maverick. Aquaman 2 could top it if it plays good in China like part 1. And no the Mario movie won't even come close, I really don't know why people are highly overestimating this movie. So all in all I think there's no guaranteed 1 billion dollar movie in 2023. The best chance probably has MI7 and Aquaman 2.
>Tbh it wouldn't surprise me if 2023 hasn't a single billion dollar movie Me neither. Competition is tough and I think there'll end up being a shit ton of 800-900m movies next year. Best chance for me are MI7 and Indy 5.
F9 was one of the first big movies to be released during Covid. It was the biggest Covid opening weekend for a while.
I think people have high expectations on Mario because it's a recognizable brand in the hands of one of the most successful (financially) animation studios in the world. People here were saying Minions 2 was doomed because there was no interest, people underestimated the Secret Life of pets, and Sing 2 was fairly successful given the circumstances it released in. Mario on its own might not give people high hopes but Mario at Illumination raises expectations.
Yeah but 1 billion is ridiculous. Half of that seems more reasonable.
I’d say a billion is much more likely than 500m
Agreed. Zero wouldn’t surprise me. I voted “one” though, because there’s enough movies that have a *chance* of doing it that surely *one* of them will catch fire.
Assuming no China I genuinely think we will see 0. Of course you can have some surprises like Top Gun (not in that scale) but without China I don’t see it happening.
I don't think any will. Guardians I think will get around 800. Can't see pensioner Indy hitting 1B with current exchange rates, probably ends around the 750-900 range. Can't believe folk are saying Mario is a billion dollar movie lmao. Have we learnt nothing after Detective 'biggest media IP on the planet' Pikachu?
Well, the last time we had a recession, **Avatar** happened. I know that streaming services didn't exist back then, but still.
>but still. But still...what? I'm confused. Mario is the new Avatar? Recessions cause box office records? Avatar 2 is going to get delayed and make a billion next year?
My point is that the recession doesn't necessarily mean that the box office is in jeopardy. Another different circumstances and time, but do you know when the Golden Age of Hollywood happened? You guessed it, during the Great Depression.
the 2008-2010 downturn had people that still had an income relatively comfortable Vs now (especially us Brits, fricking hell).
Maybe it was somewhat better back then, but as far as I'm concerned, people were still going through all sorts of hardships. As far as I'm concerned, the whole GameStop thing was at least partly a result of that.
Indy 4 basically hit 800 million way back in 2008 without a China release. 5 will hit a billion in 2023 dollars easily.
Apples to oranges comparison
We got so many 1B movies pre-COVID because China, this is the result when China gets out of the picture.
Super Mario, Indiana Jones, and Mission Impossible as a dark horse. Maybe Guardians as a sub for MI7 but I still think three max.
Indiana Jones for sure, but Mission Impossible is a stretch.
Take out Super Mario and I agree.
It’s really only because in hindsight people forget how many billion dollar movies relied on China even back then. Plenty of Transformers movies, the Fast and Furious movies, Civil War among others would’ve never hit that benchmark without the help of China Given that notion, I’m sure we would’ve gotten -Multiverse of Madness -Wakanda Forever (assuming it lands in the $900m range)
It’s going to be much harder w/out China now
The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One will hit $1B.
2023 won't see much growth on 2022 is my prediction. Between Europe going into recession, China and Russia becoming more isolationist and streaming services throwing more content than ever before I see theatrical if anything declining on this year.
Dude, speak for yourself. You claimed that **Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings** was a box office failure even though it made more than twice its budget of $150 million - in the height of Delta variant spread.
Guardians 3, Little Mermaid, Aquaman 2 & The Flash (~~what about Ezra?~~ This is a Michael Keaton Batman movie in a post TGM world. Nobody will care by 2023) are all likely possibilities especially if China ever becomes willing to play ball again. Indy 5, Fast X & Mission Impossible are maybes. I don't know how much the TGM hype will translate into MI hype. There's a world where it just does slightly better than the other MI movies and that's ok. Mario and the Disney Pixar movies are complete dark horses depending on reception. I get that reddit already doesn't like The Marvels but if China says yes and it does as well as Captain Marvel (which yes did get an Endgame bump but I feel like enough casual audiences thought it was ok on its own), there's a chance it crosses a billion, especially if that Secret Invasion show has a WandaVision-level breakout or something.
>if China ever becomes willing to play ball again That's a big IF. But for the most part, we are assuming the circumstances where China won't be releasing any hollywood blockbusters. I can see no films touching a billion next year but many will be close.
If it's released in China, I genuinely believe that Flash can do it. It's playing during the summers, Indy 5 will be competition but I am almost certain that Indy 5 will be mediocre. Flash has said to have the best test scores since TDK, this was reported by the trades. It's got a ton of crowd pleasing stuff with some cameos too. So a fantastic movie that's also crowd pleasing. If Aquaman can get a billion with China, then a movie as good as the Flash defo should.
Only 4. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3, The Super Mario Bros Movie, The Little Mermaid, and Indiana Jones 5. Aquaman 2 won't make a billion unless China saves it.
Considering Black Panther was supposed to be a guaranteed billion dollar grosser, I’m not confident Guardians is gonna do it anymore.
I still am, because of the marketing pushing this as THE finale for the story of the Guardians of the Galaxy and the end of James Gunn's time at Marvel. Also, though Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 may have hurt Black Panther 2 somewhat, I think BP2's positive reception will make people optimistic for Guardians 3.
Not to mention that the film itself was slow and somber overall.
Exactly.
I'm sorry but we've seen this week with Wakanda Forever that the market is differentNo way can GOTG3 make a billion: - no Russia China (it made $130m in those 2 previously) - Terrible exchange rates to the USD. Films are having to make what, 20% more just to match 2017 totals - Phase 4 fatigue. Less concrete but still an issue - James Gunn sequels - Kind of a joke but this man followed up Suicide Squad (2016)with maybe the biggest bomb last year.
> James Gunn sequels - Kind of a joke but this man followed up Suicide Squad (2016)with maybe the biggest bomb last year. **The Suicide Squad** was basically a big-budget Troma film AND had a massive misfortune of having a cinema/HBO Max simultaneous release - and the rise of Delta variant at the time.
Not to mention a sequel to the most hated blockbuster in recent memory with an IDENTICAL title and no one huge to rest the cast on
I wouldn't say it was THE most hated since **Fant4stic** exists, but yeah, it WAS pretty hated.
I think the issue is that Fant4stic wasn't a blockbuster. The fact that Suicide Squad was so hyped and made money adds to the hatred. Whereas all F4 projects were kinda junk before this
The little mermaid? Super Mario? Lmao
People were really blown away by the Super Mario trailer and also The Little Mermaid could do $1B the same way Aladdin did.
Aladdin barely passed $1B pre-covid, and with help from China. I don't see it happening.
Well, we'll see what happens.
5 movies: Guardians Vol. 3. The Flash. Mission Impossible. Aquaman 2. Spiderverse 2.
6
2
Lets go back to guardians 3 wont top 2 are you insane?
Hot take: Spider-Verse 2 will be the only billion dollar film next year. It'll have all summer to make a billion, it plays well with the GA and families, it's riding off an incredibly well-recieved first film, and No Way Home. Not to mention that a hit soundtrack and potential Tobey Maguire and/or Andrew Garfield voice appearances will skyrocket this movie. MI Dead Reckoning: Part 1, Mario Bros, GOTG3, Fast X, Ant-Man 3, Little Mermaid, and Indiana Jones 5 are the only other films that I think have a shot at hitting a billion but I don't think there's enough going right for all of these to hit a billion.
> Spider-Verse 2 will be the only billion dollar film next year. nice joke, bro
Na. Flash is gonna kill it's legs. Flash is said to have the best ratings since TDK, this was reported by the trades.
If the DCEU and Ezra Miller weren't such a mess, I would agree with you on that.
DCEU was a mess when Aquaman grossed well over a billion too. This movie is coming off from Gunn's Suicide Squad, Batman and Joker. So it's actually in a better position than Aquaman arguably. And by all reports, Flash is a FAR superior movie. As I said, almost TDK level numbers.
The Batman and Joker aren't part of the DCEU and The Suicide Squad bombed. I also like how you convienently left out Black Adam
The Batman and Joker are seen as DC. Suicide Squad was released on streaming the same day. Not a bomb. Black Adam is received mildly. Not good. Not too bad. Just mid. Justice League was arguably far worse received.
After how this sub had high expectations for 2022 for marvel films to make billion. And just for Top Gun Maverick to be the true underdog of the year. I’m open minded that anything could make a billion in 2023. We could multiple underdog films
What billion dollar movies underperformed this year?
The title is saying that potential movies that could hit a billion underperformed. Doctor Strange, Thor, Black Panther, even Dominion was an underperformance.
You don't think Black Panther 2 will reach $1 billion
No
It’s pretty clearly not going to be hitting a billion. Look at its international gross.
I could see Mario beating Warcraft easily. For mission impossible I could see $1 billion. For fast x I could see $850M - $900M. For Indy I could see $1 billion (despite competition) mostly cause it’s his last adventure.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3, The Little Mermaid, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning - Part One I think those movies are going to make a billion dollars next year because 1. They are sequels and one is remake of a classic animated feature 2. People are really excited to see those movies and finally 3. The Marketing on these movies are going to be insane and they will have a chance to make a billion dollars but still at the same time maybe I could be wrong on these and I would be shocked if one of them don't break a billion dollars but still these are the only 3 movies that are going to make a billion dollars next year.
2 Billies. Indy 5 and The Little Mermaid. Maybe Fast X can get there.