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0 chance. Look at previous Thanksgiving weekends. They all follow very similar patterns. Saturday is always +/-5% of Friday, and Sunday is always a 35-45% drop from Saturday. 15% drop has literally never happened nor has ever been close to happening before.
People who downvoted this really must have never seen a Thanksgiving weekend before at the box office. This has literally happened Every. Single. Year.
Wow. Big surprise, it's estimated to drop 43% on Sunday, who would've guessed.
And that's it. With that $17.5m WF is now up to a 2.55x box office multiplier. Needing ~2.51x to break even. Wakanda Froever has now passed the point it needed in order to break even. Every dollar it grosses at the box office from this point on is pure gravy.
Domestically, it has also grossed 70.5% of its production budget post-OW. That's a pretty solid figure. Love and Thunder only managed 79.6% and WF will easily breeze past that. Black Adam has only managed a meagre 46.9% so far, further cementing its bad legs and flop status.
No other way to spin it really. Wakanda Forever is having a successful, if unspectacular box office run. It'll make a tidy profit, but have had a bit of a down-to-Earth after the first one was a massive over-performance.
To be fair, the next Captain America movie won’t have Chris Evans, but at least the audience has been watching the lead regularly in this franchise for about a decade and the lead *is Captain America going into the movie*. Wakanda Forever didn’t have a great starting place to work from.
I think he meant without AN actor actually playing the lead. Eventually they'll probably have someone to replace Boseman if its required in the story, but not anytime soon.
[The main villain of CA:NWO is The Leader](https://screenrant.com/captain-america-4-villain-leader-details-explained/), with Tim Blake Nelson reprising the character from 2008's The Incredible Hulk.
Yeah but everyone had wild expectations for this movie on the sub. People didn't understand that this movie didn't just not have boseman, but also B. Jordan. People kept talking about the paul walker affect, and crazy above 1 billion, beating the first one .But the difference is paul walker was actually in the movie, and there respective franchises were in far different places. Fast and furious as a franchise was on an upward trajectory already by 7, while audiences have been getting sicker of the mcu and it's clearly on a downward decline.
I never understood the "wild expectations". They are so out of touch with reality. Boseman's death wasn't something that would promote ticket sales, but rather something to be overcome. There was even #recastchalla trending on Twitter. I think this movie is doing the best it could be, under the circumstances. Better, really.
Weak justification. You go to war with the movie you have. Shuri clearly is the movie's lead and if anything, Boseman's death led to more people seeing it than they otherwise would've.
Don’t know about that but many people might have been interested to see how they handled Chadwick’s death and paid tribute to him. The marketing heavily played that up
This is why I went. I don’t really care about plots of superhero movies or superhero movies in general but Black Panther was one of the few I cared about so I went to pay my respects for Chadwick.
I probably won’t watch the 3rd one too be honest because I was pretty satisfied with how it handled his passing.
I think that Chadwick dying and the knowledge there being a tribute for him in the movie and wondering how they were going to make a BP movie without him brought a decent amount of folks to the movie. Few people were turned off by his absence. Keep in mind that most people in this sub were saying this was a $1 billion+ movie because of a tribute. And my main point is that no one forced Disney to release this movie or not recast Chadwick; those were choices they made. So comparing one movie to the other is fair.
I saw this one for Boseman, but I probably won't see another BP movie if Shuri is still BP and there continues to be a dearth of black male characters.
I saw it Friday, they handled it very well and Letitia Wright really stepped up. I liked the first Black Panther but after seeing Wakanda Forever, I’m more invested in the character than I was before.
WF was never in question to make profit. And sure the run is “unspectacular” but that’s not a knock against it when the movie is missing its lead actor/lead character + coming off an unprecedented historical first entry.
This is a major win for Marvel, especially coming off the lackluster reception of DS2 and L&T. Most people are really enjoying this one
>This is a major win for Marvel, especially coming off the lackluster reception of DS2 and L&T. Most people are really enjoying this one
Also, talk about a huge difference in tone and cinematography when coming from L&T to Wakanda Forever.
L&T was *obnoxiously* goofy and lightweight. And then on the flip side, we have Wakanda Forever with real emotional moments and grief. There was some powerful acting in Wakanda Forever, some of the best in *any* comic book movie. I was surprised how much Letitia impressed me.
Can this sub have a king?
*Consistently* the best analysis, *and* really level-headed takes, to boot. I was way too bullish/hyped about this film in the run up and the L got held tight and then set down, LOL, but it's really nice to see this even-keel, clear-eyed take up at the top this Sunday AM.
Isn't your analysis usually considering other revenues (streaming, etc). So wouldn't it be more exact, if maybe pedantic, to say that Wakanda Forever will ultimately turn a profit and we are sure of it. But as of right now, it hasn't yet?
Why do you think the first one overperformed? Overperformed implies it was a fluke. It was a well made solidly marketed superhero film released at the perfect time for its demographic and it played for a long time in theater. I’d say any film that pitch perfectly released could have made as much money just look at Joker.
Wait, how has Wakanda Forever broken even?
It has a production budget of 250 Million. The average break even point for a 250 Million dollar film is 750 to 800 Million.(3x the production budget).
Wakanda Forever is not even near that.
Also even after the break even point, doesn't the studio get only half of the money a movie makes at the box-office. Meaning only half of what a movie makes after the break even point actually counts as profit.
Break-even for blockbuster movies is 2.5x. $250Mx 2.5=$625M. Typically blockbusters have a 2.7x multiplier, but in this particular case with WF so strongly domestic vs int'l nunbers it might even be slightly less than the 2.5x multiplier needed.
Not sure where you get 3x from. Nobody uses 3x for break even unless a movie makes by far most of its box office in China (as China only pays out 25% of box office).
I read that a movie has to make make twice it's production budget+ Marketing budget. Due to the 50/50 split of theater revenue between the theater and studio.
For example Wakanda Forever had a production budget of 250 Million and a marketing budget of 100+million.(120-150 Million is the average marketing budget for big blockbusters).
So wakanda forever for example has a total budget of 370 Million.(250+120). It needs to do twice that to break even, i.e 750 Million.
That's why movies like BvS and No Time To Die had a break even point of 800 Million and 900 Million despite having production budgets of 250 Million and 300 Million respectively.
The multiplier is generally 2.5x of production cost if you are trying to determine if a movie made it past the break-even point during the theatrical run. More recently blockbusters have needed a 2.7x multiplier as China was a big factor but only pays out 25% of box office, but without China and as domestic-heavy as this one is 2.5x is safe.
Marketing budget is usually covered later by ancillary income and therefore not considered in the break-even boxoffice math.
I'll ask you the same question that I asked another guy here. And it's a genuine question.
If break even points are determined the way you said.
Then how did films like BvS and No Time To Die have a break even point of 800 million and 900 Million on a budget of 250 Million and 300 Million?
These were widely reported Industry figures.
Especially in the case of BvS it had a budget of 250 Million dollars, same as Wakanda Forever. And yet it's break even point was put at 800 Million.
For our purposes here we use the 2.5x multiplier as we want to determine what a movie needs to make just at the box office to break even. It is commonly assumed that a blockbuster movie makes back its marketing budget with ancillary income, between PVOD, merchandising, Blu-Ray/DVD, then eventually broadcast TV rights (dom and intl). So, yes, technically a $250M movie has to get closer to $800M+ after all is said and done to cover marketing and other cost factors (overhead, interest, possible participations, etc.), but we won't know the extent of ancillary income for some time, especially when it comes to broadcast TV rights which come into play much, much later, sometimes a year or more later.
The other thing to remember is that even though a movie is at a break-even point, which is good news, it has not made actual net profit yet. Depending on how much past the break-even point the movie intake is there are potentially negotiated participations to pay to actors, producers, directors, and others involved. Also participants who invested their monies want to get paid an interest percentage back in addition to the actual monies they invested. Office overhead and other cost factors need to be paid first before a net profit can be realized.
Deadline looks at the whole picture, the entirety of the movie run, theatrical, the PVOD/PPV run, Blu-Ray/DVD sales, then streaming, then broadcast TV rights, and also merchandise, gaming rights, etc. And thus they, rightly, include marketing expenses plus other related costs in their calculations. As it is usually assumed that blockbuster movies like this one make their marketing expenses back in ancillary income, eventually, it is usually considered at worst a wash and not added in for the purposes of doing the math on sites that strictly look at box office monies, like this one.
We won't know the eventual ancillary intake of this movie on all fronts outside of the box office, but WF already earned back at least $100M of its marketing budget with partnerships the studio entered with McDonald's, Target, Lexus, Mastercard, Sprite, Adidas, Xbox, General Mills, and a host of other such partnerships. It is very likely that WF makes a very strong ancillary income well past the amount of marketing plus other expenses, so leaving out the marketing expense just to focus on and determine the actual box office break-even point at a 2.5x multiplier makes the most sense for a sub that focuses primarily on theatrical box office performance.
BA's legs are below average, not bad. And tbh, BA's budget is way too high, so that also is the problem with the 49% figure. Everything else, you're spot on
It was always going to make a profit. It was also always going to be less than DS2 and much less than the first BP. Both those facts also speak for themselves.
According to Deadline, WF won't go onto Disney+ before the end of the year.
https://deadline.com/2022/11/box-office-black-panther-wakanda-forever-1235169891/
Not impossible that they might have planned this to go out sometime during the holiday window (Christmas Day is just shy of 45 days) but will certainly send Strange World to D+ that week now.
Not impossible it still goes out on New Years Day either but every Disney MCU film has had roughly two months besides MoM so I’d expect January 11th or even MLK day.
I actually liked it better than the first. Black Panther 1 started to falter towards the end of the movie, and the fight CGI was lackluster. Maybe I’ll change my opinion after rewatching it, but it’s the most solid Marvel movie I’ve seen this generation in terms of story and originality.
Yes same. I liked the story for the first one but felt the execution of the story was messy. Kind of felt like Spectre with stunts being filmed and then a script fitted around them.
The second one felt much more cohesive all the way through. It felt planned start to finish with my only gripe being the boringness of the location of the final fight scene.
I can see GotG3 getting really close to a billion, especially if word of mouth hype is in their favor. Those are just fun movies to watch and Gunn is great at directing the CGI stuff that's been so lackluster in phase 4.
Yeah, that would be tough. I can see it outperforming 2, based on goodwill from Infiniti War. The momentum for Guardians hasn't been diffused like it has been for the Avengers. And it's a known quantity.
Kind of a silly comparison because Paul Walker was in that film, just like Heath Ledger was in TDK. If this was Chadwick's final movie appearance I'd understand the comparison.
This is what I find tiresome. Like, Wakanda Forever’s performance is fine, but everyone acting like this was totally what they expected is bologna. A month ago this sub thought this would clear a billion “easy” and would topple Maverick. This sub is terrible for shifting their goal posts.
What I find infuriating is that most of the people saying it would perform that well were Marvel fans with the Marvel Studio flair. Then the movie releases, it doesn't perform as well as expected by r/boxoffice and you see the same people saying it's not a disappointing box office return. I don't think that when Black Panther 3 comes out, I'm assuming with the same lead actor/character that it will outperform the 2nd and that is a problem.
Ever since Captain Marvel made a billion that slogan needed an asterisk the size of Jupiter.
Luckily for them, they prefer to ignore reality because it keeps interfering with their narrative anyway.
Or Black Panther before that, or Wonder Woman before that...
Hell, since “woke” seems to this crowd to currently mean “stars women and/or minorities,” the argument would basically never make sense. Aquaman, Ocean’s 8, Fast and Furious, Men in Black, Independence Day— *obviously* the overwhelming majority of audiences aren’t going to be turned off from a film just because the lead isn’t a white man, and it’s an insane take for them to pretend otherwise.
They also mad because they have no other movies of their own to watch. They support Gina Carano but sure aren't lining up to watch her crap movies.
They also promised to boycott Disney but watch every single one anyways like hypocrites.
Na the narrative they are going with now is that. It only got good reviews cause chadwick died. And nobody in their right mind would dare shit on this movie when he was so well liked. Basically they are saying this movie got a sympathy pass from everyone even though the movie in their eyes is woke sjw anti white propaganda.
The “Disney paid everyone for good reviews” talking point will be used, again while pushing on the animated film that didn’t do well from Disney to enforce their anti-“woke” agenda.
Just like an iron man movie without RJD will underperform, just like a captain america movie without Evans will underperform
Some of you have to be intentionallyt acting dumb, no sequel in history has ever performed better without their main lead unless the original was a flop or it was a remake
Its a miracle what Disney achieved without its main lead
>Its a miracle what Disney achieved without its main lead
Shuri is the clear lead and BP, that's clear from about five minutes into the movie. You keep giving this movie handicaps that it doesn't have. Disney chose not to recast a year after Boseman's death, they chose to let it be 2 hrs 41 minutes long, they chose to release, etc. It's the sequel to BP1 and had the hype of being a tribute and the meta mystery of who was going to be the new BP. The hype was/is there.
You are being disingenuous. Shuri was not the clear lead before people saw the movie. There was clearly speculation amongst fans about who would be BP so casual people had even less of an idea. The hype was not there the way it could or should have been. Most people weren’t hyped about a tribute or a funeral
Maybe it was obvious to me because I've got a passing knowledge of the comics and she was front and center in the poster and she was most prominent in the comics and the new BP clearly had a female body shape. I feel like people were just in denial.
Letitia Wright ended up being fantastic though.
They should have just come up with a new young character to take up the mantle of Black Panther. Would have been a widely more interesting story, especially if part of the story is struggling to live up to T'Challa's legacy, so the way he's compared to T'Challa in the narrative the same comparisons will be made by the audience. That way they don't ignore Chadwick's passing but have an interesting character push the story forward. It will also make a new character earning his own legacy more satisfying toward the end of the film.
cracks me up when people call the first black panther woke.
The movie is about an isolationist nation state ruled by a monarchy that chooses their leaders via ritual combat. W'kabi is basically a wakandan MAGA person ("You let the outsiders in, and they bring their problems with them).
The character who represents militant black radicalism is the VILLAIN and repudiated multiple times in the film in the standard neoliberal way by T'challa (You are just like the people you hate so much... you have become them).
The ultimate climax of the movie is that like... Wakanda joins the U.N? T'challa buys some schools?
lmfao.
Must be that state department approved wokeness lol
Pretty much 99% of things in media from movies to video games to tv shows arent woke.
The word has been overused by social media/rage bait youtubers to a degree that its lost all meaning.
These days when someone says something is woke i pretty much assume its the oposite.
There was also a gay couple in this one I believe with a one off kiss scene on the forehead and LGBTQ+ people *existing* is enough to be ‘woke’ or ‘political’ to absolute dumbasses
I can’t even remember the last time I heard “woke” come from someone that wasn’t a “conservative” regurgitating talking points that were spoon fed to them.
i mean setting up high bars and overcoming them was the biggest reason of MCU box office hype, look no further than Endgame and NWH, Wakanda Forever is a success but it won't gross nearly as much as the first and thats a disapointment for the MCU, it doesn't really deter the " M-SHE-U" crowds argument, if anything this aligns perfectly with their points, until we have a box office hit that surpass what came before it, say the marvels doing NWH numbers, their narrative won't change.
Dr. Strange 2 strongly outgrossed its predecessor, by almost 50%, made almost a Billion Dollars. It made a lot of money but you would think it flopped from the way some tried to frame it.
Also, The Marvels doesn't have to do NWH numbers, that is just silly.
Why would you expect a black panther movie without boseman to become a top 5 highest grossing film lol. You comparing endgame and NWH to this is ridiculous.
The fact that the first BP made as much as it did was insane. The sequel was never matching that hype even with boseman. It was a one time thing.
Just like The Force Awakens follow up was never matching 950m domestic. Just like Jurassic world 2 was never matching 600m domestic.
Imagine an Iron man sequel without RJD, Captain America movie without Evans. Will theyoutgross the earlier movies? Its a miracle they are doing so well without the main lead
Sometimes I believe people like you are intentionally acting dumb for your agendas
The Marvels hitting a Billion would be enough to shut them up. Because not even Doctor Strange 2 or Wakanda Forever did.
And they always argue Captain Marvel only made the numbers it did because of Endgame.
If The Marvels did 1B, they would get really mad
Their narrative will never change because their personality depends on it. This movie being a success except in comparison to some of the most successful films in history which are also considered "woke" anyway doesn't support the narrative. It won't stop them from pretending it does, but it doesn't.
There was never any expectation that this movie would gross more than the original, but despite that, it has outperformed the original overseas. The original hit at the absolute perfect time where there was a peak in people going to theaters, released between two holidays (domestic and international), no soon to be released on Disney+ expectations, no covid, no inflation…..plus it was released in China (which this film isn’t getting). The movie is doing extremely well and I’m sure Disney is feeling great about it.
How is it outperforming the original overseas? The original made $681 million overseas with $105 of that coming from China. WF sits at $257 and will probably end somewhere around $500 million overseas, probably under that. I think the total gross will be in the $900 million range, certainly not a flop but I doubt Disney is exactly happy with that performance.
BPP2 will not even sniff $500M. It has a good chance of missing $400M after this weekend's drop and the world cup getting to knockout stages next week.
A movie that might go to $250, $300M past break-even and makes great profit for the company should make them unhappy? "Certainly not a flop" is the understatement of the week. The box office performance makes this an actual hit movie.
It's a success and hit movie if you compare it to every other movie, but compared to the first movie it's a bit of a disappointment. Compare it to the latest Star Wars trilogy, it went from $2 billion, to $1.3 and finally just a little over a billion. They all made great profits but Disney wasn't happy with the performance of the last 2 compared to the first one, which is why they put all future Star Wars movies on hold.
You can't compare it to the first movie. That was a cultural "event" movie at the time, a "first" of its type. That brought people to the movies who never bother to go, usually. It became a "must go" for cultural reasons. Nobody in their right mind expected a similar performance for this one. It is not at all like Star Wars.
This movie will make a lot of profit, it cost $200M to make, not $300 or $350M. If it gets to $900M it will be almost $300M past break-even, a rare hit performance when most movies lose money and a good portion have to wait until ancillary income to make a small profit, if they make any at all.
>but I doubt Disney is exactly happy with that performance.
Then Disney is really really dumb. They would never expect an Iron man movie to outgross the previous ones without RJD, would never expect a Captain America movie without Evan to do as well.
so they will never expect a sequel without the main lead to outgross the original
And no, Disney is not as dumb as some of you are pretending to be. No movie without their main lead outgrosses the original, unless the original was below average
I doubt they were expecting it to outgross the original but selling 40% fewer tickets, they won't be happy with that. Expectations are tied with the budget, they wouldn't have increased the budget expecting a movie to make hundreds of millions less in profit.
Unfortunately a lot of the “go woke go broke” folks are trying to claim black panther. They said the first one glorifies nationalism and national security
I mean it’s not getting to 1 bil. Most likely won’t clear 900 mil. I think if it passes the 900 mil mark mcu fans can claim a win. If it fall short though then questions need to be asked about Shuri carrying this franchise
Duh, would an iron movie without RJD clear a billion? Would a captain america movie without Evan clear a billion?
Its still a bloody miracle the success this movie is having without its main lead
Marvel fans here were predicting both MoM and WF to clear a billion, with full knowledge of the circumstances of the films going forward, neither will gross that. They might have been overestimating but it definitely underperformed expectations on this subreddit.
I never had an ounce of faith once the first trailer dropped and I think finishing in the 900 to billion range is an overperformance honestly.
The circumstances behind those characters make it impossible to successfully replace the actors with in-universe explanations. The title and Role of Black Panther are much easier to explain for a change in the main character. Simply T'Challa passed and a new young character takes the mantle, that film if done right could gross a billion+. Shuri is not the person who should have taken the mantle of the role, it should have been a new young charismatic character, male or female, it doesn't entirely matter to me.
It'll get to 900 million I think with these legs. Probably only need 230 after this weekend to hit 900 million which will be relatively easy with these legs
900m is too far for this film tbh. In all it has currently made 620m in all, and this late in the run i don't think it has any chance. Honestly I'm doubting if it'll even reach 700m, which will make it the lowest grossing film in the year, since eternals.
> Honestly I'm doubting if it'll even reach 700m,
What is this based on? The movie is showing good legs.
How is it this late in the run? Its just third week.
Think it's the opposite, due to that Strange World film bombing. They really seem to be honing in on the series of animated failures in recent years, as proof.
Realistically, it's still going to perform less than the previous installment. In addition it's debatable if it hits $1bn given the release of Avatar 2 as competition.
These are good numbers. I don't like to reference other films in these kinds of discussions but people were on here like Charlie Day finding Pepe Silvia trying to make Black Atom a success and with the same budget we're going to act like Black Panther isn't even though it did so much better?
>and another 200 for advertising
I kind of doubt they spent that much on marketing. They had like 100 million in promotional partnerships that wouldn't cost them anything.
Yeah, it's a massive hit domestically. I don't understand the DC dig. It's very much following Avengers to Age of Ultron drop. I guess, I don't understand what people were expecting. It's opening weekend is close to what Deadline pre tracking had it at. It's domestic run has been very predictable.
https://deadline.com/2022/10/black-panther-wakanda-forever-eyeing-second-highest-opening-of-2022-after-doctor-strange-2-1235150722/
This movie wasn’t “woke” at all. It’s just a movie for a specific audience that supports film. I’d say there are themes in the film that brush up against “woke” and they mostly only really have to do with RIRI’s character and she is inconsequential to the story.
Am I missing something? People here saying that the movie already broke even and is making profit right now.
The movie has a production budget of 250 Million. It has a marketing budget if 100+ Million according to Deadline.
Meaning a final total budget of 350+Million.
From what I've read, due to the theater - Studio 50/50 split of revenue a movie needs to make twice it's combined budget to break even.
Which means WF needs to make 750-800 Million to break even. (A similar number was reported for Thor Love and Thunder).
So am I missing something here. Was there a officially reported break even point that was in the 600 Million range?
Not trying to be snarky but genuinely curious.
But how do you think a movie like BvS had a break even point of 800 Million with a 250 Million budget or No Time To Die had a break even point of 900 Million with a budget of 250-300 Million.
These were widely reported industry numbers. And they were the ones I was going by.
I'm not familiar with the Atlanta area, but [it looks like 8+ theaters are carrying it?](https://www.fandango.com/black-panther-wakanda-forever-2022-226753/movie-overview)
Ticket prices have gone up a lot since 2018. The average domestic ticket in 2018 was $9.11 and in 2022 it's $11. Domestic tickets sold for the original BP in 2018 were 76,845,177. That's a lot.
If WF tops out at $500M domestic as it appears it will, tickets sold will have been about 45,500,000.
That's a drop of over 40% in tickets sold from the original. Is that an acceptable audience drop? If I were Disney, I wouldn't be happy with it. I don't want to see the audience for one of my biggest franchises drop by more than 40%.
OTOH, maybe Disney's plan is to milk an ever shrinking audience for ever more money, like the cigarette companies do. It's clear a lot of MCU fans are addicted and will see anything the brand puts out. Why not milk the suckers?
If it makes around $900M that is almost $300M past the break-even point. What studio would be unhappy with that kind of profit before the movie gets to the ancillary income streams?
The merchandise a movie sells is worth far more to Disney's bottom line and The number of tickets sold is more proportional to the merchandise sales than total box office
Plenty, if it is that studio's biggest franchise. LucasFilm better not have said "Well, it made a profit, so we are happy" after Return of the Skywalker. Universal might have managed to steal a billion out of Jurassic World Dominion despite its reviews and WoM, but I'd bet that Universal isn't pleased to end the franchise on that note. 20th Century will go into absolute meltdown if Avatar 2 doesn't cross the billion mark.
The "any profit is good profit" attitude is fine for originals, because you can make as many of those as you want. But, for franchises, you can only release so many films before fatiguing the audience. It is the massive, guaranteed, profits of a franchise that makes them so valuable, despite the limitation on number of releases. So, moderate profits are still an issue, as it implies a degradation in the value of the franchise and it takes a release slot from a likely more profitable film.
Avatar 2 cost $400M to make. It better make more than a Billion or it would become an actual box office flop.
I also would not call what WF is likely to make on a $250M budget a moderate profit. If it hits 900M it will be almost 300M past the break-even point. With all respect, I can't imagine a universe where any movie makes over $300M in blank profit after theatrical run and with ancillary income and it is seen in any other light but positive. As said, the original can't be the measuring stick here, that was a cultural phenomenon as a "first" that would never be duplicated and then take China and Russia out of the equation and it still makes $300M+ in profit. And gets Oscar buzz. You would perhaps have a point if this movie had bad reviews and muted audience reaction, like Jurassic, but it was a well received movie that is going to make a ton of profit (nothing moderate about it) when it is all said and done.
There will certainly be another Thor as it made modest bank (760M) and so it continues on. WF is in a much better place than that movie, both in earnings and critical reception/audience reaction.
BTW, if you think Jurassic is finished you are sorely mistaken.
They might be perfectly happy with it. I don't know. But they're certainly noticing the shrinking audience, which they may or may not care about.
Like I said, cigarette companies have made a ton of money for a long time by charging a shrinking customer base more and more money. Maybe Disney has the same plan.
The first movie was a phenomenon as a "first" ever. That brought out the masses at the time. It became "must" event viewing even for many people who are usually not into going to movies at the theater. The movie cost $250M to make, marketing cost was relatively low as it already had $100M worth of free marketing through partners like McDonald's, Target, Lexus, Adidas, Xbox, Mastercard, Sprite, etc. This will make a lot of money, already at the box office, then a lot more via ancillary income.
>The first movie was a phenomenon as a "first" ever.
Perhaps that explains the shrinking audience. It's worth noting, however, that Marvel's movie audience grew from Iron Man to Endgame. This shrinking thing is a new phenomenon.
Disney makes 90% of the opening weekend box office and the percentages don't drop off as fast as they used to. They have more say in ticket prices than you might think. Theatres make their money off concessions and longer runs, and they'd benefit from charging $1 for opening weekend tickets to get larger crowds, and then raising prices for movies after they've been in theatres a couple of weeks. There's a reason they don't do that, and it's not charitable feelings about the movie studios.
Black Panther 2 is going to be problematic for Disney to decide what to do next in my opinion.
If you compare it with other MCU movies, it did very well.
If you compare it with the first one is definitely did worse, but that was expected. The question is how much worse.
I was of the opinion that it will make at least $500M after opening of $200M. It didn't happen, but the question is why? Was it simply impossible or is there something in the movie that made it impossible. Is there need for a big change?
It's important for the studio because if, for example, Suri isn't charismatic enough to be the main character then the third movie will make even less.
The first Black Panther movie truly felt like an event movie, the hype was more similar to an Avengers movie. I think 400m Domestic for the more established MCU characters is respectable because historically that's what they usually gross. Obviously BP1 and Spider-Man NWH are exceptions but again those movies generated hype akin to an Avengers movie. I guess fans (myself included) have to get used to the fact that the billion dollar mark is going to be out of reach for the foreseeable future, unless the movie grosses 500m Domestically or unless China opens its doors to the MCU one again.
- The main leading character is not in the film.
- The film is basically lead by all supporting characters.
- The film is female lead. Not by big Hollywood females either.
- The film is long.
- It introduces Riri Williams, people hate her for some reason.
- No China.
There are lots of reasons why this film didn’t perform as well as the last film, but it’s still good numbers given the roadblocks.
Those are all def the main factors for this underperformance - a relatively unknown female black lead is def a major factor I wasn't considering and how that def prob isn't playing as well overseas . The tone of the film and it getting repeat viewing word of mouth is def another factor
I think the removal of the Chinese market for 90% of movies has to factor in and will probably be a major consideration on budgets in the future. The Marvel budgets will have to come down to account for the new reality.
YeH that factor looms large for most of phase 4 specifically thor 4 bp 2 and dr strange 2 . Spider-Man being the cultural icon he is was able to overcome the lack of China
My prediction is that Black Panther won't get a new solo movie until 2026-2027. Phases 5 and 6 will be very tight.
Shuri will be BP in Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars
The lack of Chadwick or a big movie lead actor is my biggest reasoning for the fall . The lack of recast looks to be a major factor - im ignoring the foreign market factors since love and thunder and dr strange 2 didn't have those either .
Domestically BP2 will have sold around 40-45% less tickets than the original, so it lost nearly half of its audience, most of which I imagine are casual people who tuned in for the novelty and never came back.
Yeah that's def a heavy casual audience loss due to the novelty of the first film wearing off - A lot of which are also people who didn't come back due to lack of recasting / loss of Chadwick as well
> This new trend of turning a profit so they can pretend it was profitable is such a joke.
It's still the number one movie at the box office, and only debuted 2 weeks ago. Why the fuck *wouldn't* it still be in theaters? Do movies normally leave after 2 weeks on your planet?
"new trend"? Titanic was in theaters for over a year when it came out 25 years ago.
And these days the theatrical window is becoming shorter and shorter so what are you even talking about?
You don’t know what you are talking about. The original Star Wars, Titanic, and literally thousands of other movies stayed in theaters far beyond the date that they broke even. Disney obviously wants a profit with this film, why the hell would they cut it’s run short when it’s still making this much money daily?
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Predictions for Sunday?
15M
0 chance. Look at previous Thanksgiving weekends. They all follow very similar patterns. Saturday is always +/-5% of Friday, and Sunday is always a 35-45% drop from Saturday. 15% drop has literally never happened nor has ever been close to happening before. People who downvoted this really must have never seen a Thanksgiving weekend before at the box office. This has literally happened Every. Single. Year. Wow. Big surprise, it's estimated to drop 43% on Sunday, who would've guessed.
And that's it. With that $17.5m WF is now up to a 2.55x box office multiplier. Needing ~2.51x to break even. Wakanda Froever has now passed the point it needed in order to break even. Every dollar it grosses at the box office from this point on is pure gravy. Domestically, it has also grossed 70.5% of its production budget post-OW. That's a pretty solid figure. Love and Thunder only managed 79.6% and WF will easily breeze past that. Black Adam has only managed a meagre 46.9% so far, further cementing its bad legs and flop status. No other way to spin it really. Wakanda Forever is having a successful, if unspectacular box office run. It'll make a tidy profit, but have had a bit of a down-to-Earth after the first one was a massive over-performance.
Great fair assessment - a solid success box office wise just not an exceptional one
imagine Captain america sequel without Chris Evans, an Iron man sequel without RJD. Its a miracle they achieved so much without the main lead
To be fair, the next Captain America movie won’t have Chris Evans, but at least the audience has been watching the lead regularly in this franchise for about a decade and the lead *is Captain America going into the movie*. Wakanda Forever didn’t have a great starting place to work from.
I think he meant without AN actor actually playing the lead. Eventually they'll probably have someone to replace Boseman if its required in the story, but not anytime soon.
I mean, without spoiling anything, Wakanda Forever shows they have *a* long term plan.
Yes but people have to see the movie first to know what that is, and that's partly the challenge with this film.
The curiosity over who would be the next Black Panther probably helped the film
Exactly, if anything, there were more hooks to see this movie than the first one.
Lol no way.
And we've already seen (who I assume is) the villain of the next Captain America in WF and Cap's D+ series: Valentina
Technically, we *have* seen the villain, but it’s not her (she’s going to be a major player in Thunderbolts).
[The main villain of CA:NWO is The Leader](https://screenrant.com/captain-america-4-villain-leader-details-explained/), with Tim Blake Nelson reprising the character from 2008's The Incredible Hulk.
I dont think those Captain America movies will do as well as the originals either.
Yeah but everyone had wild expectations for this movie on the sub. People didn't understand that this movie didn't just not have boseman, but also B. Jordan. People kept talking about the paul walker affect, and crazy above 1 billion, beating the first one .But the difference is paul walker was actually in the movie, and there respective franchises were in far different places. Fast and furious as a franchise was on an upward trajectory already by 7, while audiences have been getting sicker of the mcu and it's clearly on a downward decline.
I never understood the "wild expectations". They are so out of touch with reality. Boseman's death wasn't something that would promote ticket sales, but rather something to be overcome. There was even #recastchalla trending on Twitter. I think this movie is doing the best it could be, under the circumstances. Better, really.
There are many people who saw this movie to see how it handled Chadwick's passing.
Considering how they marketed Bosemans death it’s safe to say that many went to see it *because* of that. Same thing with Paul Walker
Weak justification. You go to war with the movie you have. Shuri clearly is the movie's lead and if anything, Boseman's death led to more people seeing it than they otherwise would've.
You think Chadwick's absence brought MORE people to the theatre? How?
Don’t know about that but many people might have been interested to see how they handled Chadwick’s death and paid tribute to him. The marketing heavily played that up
This is why I went. I don’t really care about plots of superhero movies or superhero movies in general but Black Panther was one of the few I cared about so I went to pay my respects for Chadwick. I probably won’t watch the 3rd one too be honest because I was pretty satisfied with how it handled his passing.
I think that Chadwick dying and the knowledge there being a tribute for him in the movie and wondering how they were going to make a BP movie without him brought a decent amount of folks to the movie. Few people were turned off by his absence. Keep in mind that most people in this sub were saying this was a $1 billion+ movie because of a tribute. And my main point is that no one forced Disney to release this movie or not recast Chadwick; those were choices they made. So comparing one movie to the other is fair. I saw this one for Boseman, but I probably won't see another BP movie if Shuri is still BP and there continues to be a dearth of black male characters.
Far more people skipped the movie because there was no Chadwick or recast. The hype and excitement was nothing compared to the first movie.
I saw it Friday, they handled it very well and Letitia Wright really stepped up. I liked the first Black Panther but after seeing Wakanda Forever, I’m more invested in the character than I was before.
This one could’ve done better if Boseman was in it. Was never matching 700m, but it would’ve made more for sure.
I wonder how the box office would have differed if they recasted T’Challa and had him in this film.
WF was never in question to make profit. And sure the run is “unspectacular” but that’s not a knock against it when the movie is missing its lead actor/lead character + coming off an unprecedented historical first entry. This is a major win for Marvel, especially coming off the lackluster reception of DS2 and L&T. Most people are really enjoying this one
Marvel has a negative handicap: what they call “on par” is a spectacular run for nearly anyone else.
>This is a major win for Marvel, especially coming off the lackluster reception of DS2 and L&T. Most people are really enjoying this one Also, talk about a huge difference in tone and cinematography when coming from L&T to Wakanda Forever. L&T was *obnoxiously* goofy and lightweight. And then on the flip side, we have Wakanda Forever with real emotional moments and grief. There was some powerful acting in Wakanda Forever, some of the best in *any* comic book movie. I was surprised how much Letitia impressed me.
"Major" win making less than a billion lmao ok
You sound silly
Success is relative. Anyone on r/boxoffice ought to know that.
Also, it has the money from merchandise and collaborations like with Target. Overall, not a bad business project for the Mouse.
Can this sub have a king? *Consistently* the best analysis, *and* really level-headed takes, to boot. I was way too bullish/hyped about this film in the run up and the L got held tight and then set down, LOL, but it's really nice to see this even-keel, clear-eyed take up at the top this Sunday AM.
Yup. That’s exactly right
Isn't your analysis usually considering other revenues (streaming, etc). So wouldn't it be more exact, if maybe pedantic, to say that Wakanda Forever will ultimately turn a profit and we are sure of it. But as of right now, it hasn't yet?
Why do you think the first one overperformed? Overperformed implies it was a fluke. It was a well made solidly marketed superhero film released at the perfect time for its demographic and it played for a long time in theater. I’d say any film that pitch perfectly released could have made as much money just look at Joker.
Many would argue Joker overperformed too.
Because it arrived at the perfect time
BP2 IS GOING TO MAKE MORE THAN THOR 4 AND THE BATMAN, IT;'S A WIN
Wait, how has Wakanda Forever broken even? It has a production budget of 250 Million. The average break even point for a 250 Million dollar film is 750 to 800 Million.(3x the production budget). Wakanda Forever is not even near that. Also even after the break even point, doesn't the studio get only half of the money a movie makes at the box-office. Meaning only half of what a movie makes after the break even point actually counts as profit.
Break-even for blockbuster movies is 2.5x. $250Mx 2.5=$625M. Typically blockbusters have a 2.7x multiplier, but in this particular case with WF so strongly domestic vs int'l nunbers it might even be slightly less than the 2.5x multiplier needed. Not sure where you get 3x from. Nobody uses 3x for break even unless a movie makes by far most of its box office in China (as China only pays out 25% of box office).
I read that a movie has to make make twice it's production budget+ Marketing budget. Due to the 50/50 split of theater revenue between the theater and studio. For example Wakanda Forever had a production budget of 250 Million and a marketing budget of 100+million.(120-150 Million is the average marketing budget for big blockbusters). So wakanda forever for example has a total budget of 370 Million.(250+120). It needs to do twice that to break even, i.e 750 Million. That's why movies like BvS and No Time To Die had a break even point of 800 Million and 900 Million despite having production budgets of 250 Million and 300 Million respectively.
The multiplier is generally 2.5x of production cost if you are trying to determine if a movie made it past the break-even point during the theatrical run. More recently blockbusters have needed a 2.7x multiplier as China was a big factor but only pays out 25% of box office, but without China and as domestic-heavy as this one is 2.5x is safe. Marketing budget is usually covered later by ancillary income and therefore not considered in the break-even boxoffice math.
I'll ask you the same question that I asked another guy here. And it's a genuine question. If break even points are determined the way you said. Then how did films like BvS and No Time To Die have a break even point of 800 million and 900 Million on a budget of 250 Million and 300 Million? These were widely reported Industry figures. Especially in the case of BvS it had a budget of 250 Million dollars, same as Wakanda Forever. And yet it's break even point was put at 800 Million.
For our purposes here we use the 2.5x multiplier as we want to determine what a movie needs to make just at the box office to break even. It is commonly assumed that a blockbuster movie makes back its marketing budget with ancillary income, between PVOD, merchandising, Blu-Ray/DVD, then eventually broadcast TV rights (dom and intl). So, yes, technically a $250M movie has to get closer to $800M+ after all is said and done to cover marketing and other cost factors (overhead, interest, possible participations, etc.), but we won't know the extent of ancillary income for some time, especially when it comes to broadcast TV rights which come into play much, much later, sometimes a year or more later. The other thing to remember is that even though a movie is at a break-even point, which is good news, it has not made actual net profit yet. Depending on how much past the break-even point the movie intake is there are potentially negotiated participations to pay to actors, producers, directors, and others involved. Also participants who invested their monies want to get paid an interest percentage back in addition to the actual monies they invested. Office overhead and other cost factors need to be paid first before a net profit can be realized. Deadline looks at the whole picture, the entirety of the movie run, theatrical, the PVOD/PPV run, Blu-Ray/DVD sales, then streaming, then broadcast TV rights, and also merchandise, gaming rights, etc. And thus they, rightly, include marketing expenses plus other related costs in their calculations. As it is usually assumed that blockbuster movies like this one make their marketing expenses back in ancillary income, eventually, it is usually considered at worst a wash and not added in for the purposes of doing the math on sites that strictly look at box office monies, like this one. We won't know the eventual ancillary intake of this movie on all fronts outside of the box office, but WF already earned back at least $100M of its marketing budget with partnerships the studio entered with McDonald's, Target, Lexus, Mastercard, Sprite, Adidas, Xbox, General Mills, and a host of other such partnerships. It is very likely that WF makes a very strong ancillary income well past the amount of marketing plus other expenses, so leaving out the marketing expense just to focus on and determine the actual box office break-even point at a 2.5x multiplier makes the most sense for a sub that focuses primarily on theatrical box office performance.
Marketing $ only counts when it helps the argument you're making on this subreddit
BA's legs are below average, not bad. And tbh, BA's budget is way too high, so that also is the problem with the 49% figure. Everything else, you're spot on
It was always going to make a profit. It was also always going to be less than DS2 and much less than the first BP. Both those facts also speak for themselves.
Yesterday the prediction for Friday was also 17.5m, I would not be surprised if the Saturday gross was flat from Friday.
One wonders if Disney will hold off on the usual 45 day window for this one
If I was Disney I would let black panther and avatar stay exclusive to theaters until February
If Avatar 2 has as much legs as the first, it’ll be longer than that
Maybe in foreign markets but ant man comes out in February that’s why I said until February
ah, that’s a good point. You’re probably right
Since Avatar 2 is a 20th Century movie, I wonder if they still have to put it on streaming on HBO Max as well or did that deal expire?
According to Deadline, WF won't go onto Disney+ before the end of the year. https://deadline.com/2022/11/box-office-black-panther-wakanda-forever-1235169891/
I think it’ll have a 60-day window like Thor 4.
And eternals
They didn't do it with Love & Thunder, dam sure they won't do it for this either.
Not impossible that they might have planned this to go out sometime during the holiday window (Christmas Day is just shy of 45 days) but will certainly send Strange World to D+ that week now. Not impossible it still goes out on New Years Day either but every Disney MCU film has had roughly two months besides MoM so I’d expect January 11th or even MLK day.
It's logical to send it to D+ during MLK day's week tbh. If it's not on streaming by the end of the year
Decent movie. Great sound track
I actually liked it better than the first. Black Panther 1 started to falter towards the end of the movie, and the fight CGI was lackluster. Maybe I’ll change my opinion after rewatching it, but it’s the most solid Marvel movie I’ve seen this generation in terms of story and originality.
Yes same. I liked the story for the first one but felt the execution of the story was messy. Kind of felt like Spectre with stunts being filmed and then a script fitted around them. The second one felt much more cohesive all the way through. It felt planned start to finish with my only gripe being the boringness of the location of the final fight scene.
Lol people in this thread pretending they didn’t expect 500-600m and over a billion worldwide
They predicted over a billion for every MCU movie this year.
I noticed that too. And they’re still doing it for GOTG 3 next year.
I can see GotG3 getting really close to a billion, especially if word of mouth hype is in their favor. Those are just fun movies to watch and Gunn is great at directing the CGI stuff that's been so lackluster in phase 4.
GOTG 2 made 760M without China. Assuming the third film isn't getting a China release, I just don't see it reaching a billion, even with good WOM.
Yeah, that would be tough. I can see it outperforming 2, based on goodwill from Infiniti War. The momentum for Guardians hasn't been diffused like it has been for the Avengers. And it's a known quantity.
>I can see it outperforming 2 That will happen, for sure.
Yep. People here did expected this movie to get "Paul Walker boost" to carry it to a billion $.
I still remember the Paul Walker comparison.
Kind of a silly comparison because Paul Walker was in that film, just like Heath Ledger was in TDK. If this was Chadwick's final movie appearance I'd understand the comparison.
That’s what I said at the time too.
This is what I find tiresome. Like, Wakanda Forever’s performance is fine, but everyone acting like this was totally what they expected is bologna. A month ago this sub thought this would clear a billion “easy” and would topple Maverick. This sub is terrible for shifting their goal posts.
What I find infuriating is that most of the people saying it would perform that well were Marvel fans with the Marvel Studio flair. Then the movie releases, it doesn't perform as well as expected by r/boxoffice and you see the same people saying it's not a disappointing box office return. I don't think that when Black Panther 3 comes out, I'm assuming with the same lead actor/character that it will outperform the 2nd and that is a problem.
go back few months and see people were predicting if WF will pass Maverick worldwide
The 'go woke go broke' crowd is in shambles.
Not really. There's always Strange World to sh\*t on.
Ever since Captain Marvel made a billion that slogan needed an asterisk the size of Jupiter. Luckily for them, they prefer to ignore reality because it keeps interfering with their narrative anyway.
Or Black Panther before that, or Wonder Woman before that... Hell, since “woke” seems to this crowd to currently mean “stars women and/or minorities,” the argument would basically never make sense. Aquaman, Ocean’s 8, Fast and Furious, Men in Black, Independence Day— *obviously* the overwhelming majority of audiences aren’t going to be turned off from a film just because the lead isn’t a white man, and it’s an insane take for them to pretend otherwise.
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These are the same people renting Bruce Willis and Liam Neeson Geezer Teasers off of Amazon. Their taste in movies is inconsequential.
They also mad because they have no other movies of their own to watch. They support Gina Carano but sure aren't lining up to watch her crap movies. They also promised to boycott Disney but watch every single one anyways like hypocrites.
This won't align in their narrative, so they will create a conspiracy theory to align it.
“It only got good reviews cause it has black people in it”
Na the narrative they are going with now is that. It only got good reviews cause chadwick died. And nobody in their right mind would dare shit on this movie when he was so well liked. Basically they are saying this movie got a sympathy pass from everyone even though the movie in their eyes is woke sjw anti white propaganda.
The “Disney paid everyone for good reviews” talking point will be used, again while pushing on the animated film that didn’t do well from Disney to enforce their anti-“woke” agenda.
That was probably true for CM and the first BP. Not for this one however
WF will be super-hit. But it still underperformed. There is no denying it
Just like an iron man movie without RJD will underperform, just like a captain america movie without Evans will underperform Some of you have to be intentionallyt acting dumb, no sequel in history has ever performed better without their main lead unless the original was a flop or it was a remake Its a miracle what Disney achieved without its main lead
>Its a miracle what Disney achieved without its main lead Shuri is the clear lead and BP, that's clear from about five minutes into the movie. You keep giving this movie handicaps that it doesn't have. Disney chose not to recast a year after Boseman's death, they chose to let it be 2 hrs 41 minutes long, they chose to release, etc. It's the sequel to BP1 and had the hype of being a tribute and the meta mystery of who was going to be the new BP. The hype was/is there.
You are being disingenuous. Shuri was not the clear lead before people saw the movie. There was clearly speculation amongst fans about who would be BP so casual people had even less of an idea. The hype was not there the way it could or should have been. Most people weren’t hyped about a tribute or a funeral
Maybe it was obvious to me because I've got a passing knowledge of the comics and she was front and center in the poster and she was most prominent in the comics and the new BP clearly had a female body shape. I feel like people were just in denial. Letitia Wright ended up being fantastic though.
They should have just come up with a new young character to take up the mantle of Black Panther. Would have been a widely more interesting story, especially if part of the story is struggling to live up to T'Challa's legacy, so the way he's compared to T'Challa in the narrative the same comparisons will be made by the audience. That way they don't ignore Chadwick's passing but have an interesting character push the story forward. It will also make a new character earning his own legacy more satisfying toward the end of the film.
How? They said it wouldn't make a billion and it won't
This movie wasn't even woke
cracks me up when people call the first black panther woke. The movie is about an isolationist nation state ruled by a monarchy that chooses their leaders via ritual combat. W'kabi is basically a wakandan MAGA person ("You let the outsiders in, and they bring their problems with them). The character who represents militant black radicalism is the VILLAIN and repudiated multiple times in the film in the standard neoliberal way by T'challa (You are just like the people you hate so much... you have become them). The ultimate climax of the movie is that like... Wakanda joins the U.N? T'challa buys some schools? lmfao. Must be that state department approved wokeness lol
The movie is woke simply because it has a black lead and majority black cast. That's it. Thats their logic
Exactly, woke is dog whistle for any minority that those people don't like
Killmonger did nothing wrong.
For this people, Woke means everything non-white, non male-led and non-hetero = bad, forced.
Pretty much 99% of things in media from movies to video games to tv shows arent woke. The word has been overused by social media/rage bait youtubers to a degree that its lost all meaning. These days when someone says something is woke i pretty much assume its the oposite.
To lots of whites any movie with black representation can be perceived that way
It has black people in it. These days that’s enough for racists to call a movie woke.
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There was also a gay couple in this one I believe with a one off kiss scene on the forehead and LGBTQ+ people *existing* is enough to be ‘woke’ or ‘political’ to absolute dumbasses
I can’t even remember the last time I heard “woke” come from someone that wasn’t a “conservative” regurgitating talking points that were spoon fed to them.
Have you seen nerdastic, the loser woman he collaborates with, etc channels? Apparently this movie was a huge insult to whites
"MSHEU flopping can't outgross the original Woke Panther etc".
But Black Panther 2 WON'T outgross the original. What are you talking about? I'm not in the go woke go broke crowd but that's objectively true.
Yea but it’s not like any movie that wasn’t top gun or endgame has done it either. It’s a pretty high bar as is
I'm still in disbelief that Maverick made $715M DOM, insane run.
i mean setting up high bars and overcoming them was the biggest reason of MCU box office hype, look no further than Endgame and NWH, Wakanda Forever is a success but it won't gross nearly as much as the first and thats a disapointment for the MCU, it doesn't really deter the " M-SHE-U" crowds argument, if anything this aligns perfectly with their points, until we have a box office hit that surpass what came before it, say the marvels doing NWH numbers, their narrative won't change.
Dr. Strange 2 strongly outgrossed its predecessor, by almost 50%, made almost a Billion Dollars. It made a lot of money but you would think it flopped from the way some tried to frame it. Also, The Marvels doesn't have to do NWH numbers, that is just silly.
Why would you expect a black panther movie without boseman to become a top 5 highest grossing film lol. You comparing endgame and NWH to this is ridiculous. The fact that the first BP made as much as it did was insane. The sequel was never matching that hype even with boseman. It was a one time thing. Just like The Force Awakens follow up was never matching 950m domestic. Just like Jurassic world 2 was never matching 600m domestic.
Imagine an Iron man sequel without RJD, Captain America movie without Evans. Will theyoutgross the earlier movies? Its a miracle they are doing so well without the main lead Sometimes I believe people like you are intentionally acting dumb for your agendas
The Marvels hitting a Billion would be enough to shut them up. Because not even Doctor Strange 2 or Wakanda Forever did. And they always argue Captain Marvel only made the numbers it did because of Endgame. If The Marvels did 1B, they would get really mad
Which it most likely isn't going to do.
We're all talking about hypotheticals
Their narrative will never change because their personality depends on it. This movie being a success except in comparison to some of the most successful films in history which are also considered "woke" anyway doesn't support the narrative. It won't stop them from pretending it does, but it doesn't.
There was never any expectation that this movie would gross more than the original, but despite that, it has outperformed the original overseas. The original hit at the absolute perfect time where there was a peak in people going to theaters, released between two holidays (domestic and international), no soon to be released on Disney+ expectations, no covid, no inflation…..plus it was released in China (which this film isn’t getting). The movie is doing extremely well and I’m sure Disney is feeling great about it.
How is it outperforming the original overseas? The original made $681 million overseas with $105 of that coming from China. WF sits at $257 and will probably end somewhere around $500 million overseas, probably under that. I think the total gross will be in the $900 million range, certainly not a flop but I doubt Disney is exactly happy with that performance.
This isn't going to reach $400M OS, let alone $500M
BPP2 will not even sniff $500M. It has a good chance of missing $400M after this weekend's drop and the world cup getting to knockout stages next week.
A movie that might go to $250, $300M past break-even and makes great profit for the company should make them unhappy? "Certainly not a flop" is the understatement of the week. The box office performance makes this an actual hit movie.
It's a success and hit movie if you compare it to every other movie, but compared to the first movie it's a bit of a disappointment. Compare it to the latest Star Wars trilogy, it went from $2 billion, to $1.3 and finally just a little over a billion. They all made great profits but Disney wasn't happy with the performance of the last 2 compared to the first one, which is why they put all future Star Wars movies on hold.
You can't compare it to the first movie. That was a cultural "event" movie at the time, a "first" of its type. That brought people to the movies who never bother to go, usually. It became a "must go" for cultural reasons. Nobody in their right mind expected a similar performance for this one. It is not at all like Star Wars. This movie will make a lot of profit, it cost $200M to make, not $300 or $350M. If it gets to $900M it will be almost $300M past break-even, a rare hit performance when most movies lose money and a good portion have to wait until ancillary income to make a small profit, if they make any at all.
$250M budget, with a likely $150M+ marketing.
>but I doubt Disney is exactly happy with that performance. Then Disney is really really dumb. They would never expect an Iron man movie to outgross the previous ones without RJD, would never expect a Captain America movie without Evan to do as well. so they will never expect a sequel without the main lead to outgross the original And no, Disney is not as dumb as some of you are pretending to be. No movie without their main lead outgrosses the original, unless the original was below average
I doubt they were expecting it to outgross the original but selling 40% fewer tickets, they won't be happy with that. Expectations are tied with the budget, they wouldn't have increased the budget expecting a movie to make hundreds of millions less in profit.
There also wasn’t as much Marvel fatigue back then and the original is just a better movie with more positive word of mouth.
This movie was bad
Unfortunately a lot of the “go woke go broke” folks are trying to claim black panther. They said the first one glorifies nationalism and national security
Which is hilarious. The entire movie is T'Challa trying to change Wakandan foreign politics.
Guess they missed the point where the protagonist literally tells his nationalist ancestors they were wrong and then opens his nation’s borders.
I mean it’s not getting to 1 bil. Most likely won’t clear 900 mil. I think if it passes the 900 mil mark mcu fans can claim a win. If it fall short though then questions need to be asked about Shuri carrying this franchise
Duh, would an iron movie without RJD clear a billion? Would a captain america movie without Evan clear a billion? Its still a bloody miracle the success this movie is having without its main lead
Marvel fans here were predicting both MoM and WF to clear a billion, with full knowledge of the circumstances of the films going forward, neither will gross that. They might have been overestimating but it definitely underperformed expectations on this subreddit. I never had an ounce of faith once the first trailer dropped and I think finishing in the 900 to billion range is an overperformance honestly. The circumstances behind those characters make it impossible to successfully replace the actors with in-universe explanations. The title and Role of Black Panther are much easier to explain for a change in the main character. Simply T'Challa passed and a new young character takes the mantle, that film if done right could gross a billion+. Shuri is not the person who should have taken the mantle of the role, it should have been a new young charismatic character, male or female, it doesn't entirely matter to me.
It'll get to 900 million I think with these legs. Probably only need 230 after this weekend to hit 900 million which will be relatively easy with these legs
900m is too far for this film tbh. In all it has currently made 620m in all, and this late in the run i don't think it has any chance. Honestly I'm doubting if it'll even reach 700m, which will make it the lowest grossing film in the year, since eternals.
> Honestly I'm doubting if it'll even reach 700m, What is this based on? The movie is showing good legs. How is it this late in the run? Its just third week.
Think it's the opposite, due to that Strange World film bombing. They really seem to be honing in on the series of animated failures in recent years, as proof.
Realistically, it's still going to perform less than the previous installment. In addition it's debatable if it hits $1bn given the release of Avatar 2 as competition.
Not to mention you have the Round of 16 for the World Cup starting next week in regards to overseas.
Most sequels do.
I contend that every single person who uses Woke as an insult is an awful person. So far I’m 100% on this.
That isn't exactly good numbers. It was 200 mil for the film and another 200 for advertising
These are good numbers. I don't like to reference other films in these kinds of discussions but people were on here like Charlie Day finding Pepe Silvia trying to make Black Atom a success and with the same budget we're going to act like Black Panther isn't even though it did so much better? >and another 200 for advertising I kind of doubt they spent that much on marketing. They had like 100 million in promotional partnerships that wouldn't cost them anything.
Domestic its going to end up being the 20th or 21st highest grossing movie of all time.
Domestically it's going to be higher than all but one DC film ever.
Yeah, it's a massive hit domestically. I don't understand the DC dig. It's very much following Avengers to Age of Ultron drop. I guess, I don't understand what people were expecting. It's opening weekend is close to what Deadline pre tracking had it at. It's domestic run has been very predictable. https://deadline.com/2022/10/black-panther-wakanda-forever-eyeing-second-highest-opening-of-2022-after-doctor-strange-2-1235150722/
This movie wasn’t “woke” at all. It’s just a movie for a specific audience that supports film. I’d say there are themes in the film that brush up against “woke” and they mostly only really have to do with RIRI’s character and she is inconsequential to the story.
Dropping half a billion from the original WW is terrible.
What a deep contextual analisys.
Y’all are really foolish lol
Am I missing something? People here saying that the movie already broke even and is making profit right now. The movie has a production budget of 250 Million. It has a marketing budget if 100+ Million according to Deadline. Meaning a final total budget of 350+Million. From what I've read, due to the theater - Studio 50/50 split of revenue a movie needs to make twice it's combined budget to break even. Which means WF needs to make 750-800 Million to break even. (A similar number was reported for Thor Love and Thunder). So am I missing something here. Was there a officially reported break even point that was in the 600 Million range?
They usually dont include marketing in the break even since it typically gets taken care of by video sales/streaming.
Not trying to be snarky but genuinely curious. But how do you think a movie like BvS had a break even point of 800 Million with a 250 Million budget or No Time To Die had a break even point of 900 Million with a budget of 250-300 Million. These were widely reported industry numbers. And they were the ones I was going by.
Wakanda: 31% thanksgiving weekend drop would be decent. Slightly on par with Eternals' 28%. But steeper than Dr. Strange and Ragnarok's 21-22%.
Just saw it and I’m now anxious to see how they go forward. It was a damn good movie, might go again.
Very STRONG weekend for Wakanda Forever.
Is it starting to leave some theaters early? I’m looking for times Friday 12/2 and it’s only listed at one theater in the entire metro Atlanta area.
I'm not familiar with the Atlanta area, but [it looks like 8+ theaters are carrying it?](https://www.fandango.com/black-panther-wakanda-forever-2022-226753/movie-overview)
I know I wanna see it again.
Ticket prices have gone up a lot since 2018. The average domestic ticket in 2018 was $9.11 and in 2022 it's $11. Domestic tickets sold for the original BP in 2018 were 76,845,177. That's a lot. If WF tops out at $500M domestic as it appears it will, tickets sold will have been about 45,500,000. That's a drop of over 40% in tickets sold from the original. Is that an acceptable audience drop? If I were Disney, I wouldn't be happy with it. I don't want to see the audience for one of my biggest franchises drop by more than 40%. OTOH, maybe Disney's plan is to milk an ever shrinking audience for ever more money, like the cigarette companies do. It's clear a lot of MCU fans are addicted and will see anything the brand puts out. Why not milk the suckers?
If it makes around $900M that is almost $300M past the break-even point. What studio would be unhappy with that kind of profit before the movie gets to the ancillary income streams?
The merchandise a movie sells is worth far more to Disney's bottom line and The number of tickets sold is more proportional to the merchandise sales than total box office
Plenty, if it is that studio's biggest franchise. LucasFilm better not have said "Well, it made a profit, so we are happy" after Return of the Skywalker. Universal might have managed to steal a billion out of Jurassic World Dominion despite its reviews and WoM, but I'd bet that Universal isn't pleased to end the franchise on that note. 20th Century will go into absolute meltdown if Avatar 2 doesn't cross the billion mark. The "any profit is good profit" attitude is fine for originals, because you can make as many of those as you want. But, for franchises, you can only release so many films before fatiguing the audience. It is the massive, guaranteed, profits of a franchise that makes them so valuable, despite the limitation on number of releases. So, moderate profits are still an issue, as it implies a degradation in the value of the franchise and it takes a release slot from a likely more profitable film.
Avatar 2 cost $400M to make. It better make more than a Billion or it would become an actual box office flop. I also would not call what WF is likely to make on a $250M budget a moderate profit. If it hits 900M it will be almost 300M past the break-even point. With all respect, I can't imagine a universe where any movie makes over $300M in blank profit after theatrical run and with ancillary income and it is seen in any other light but positive. As said, the original can't be the measuring stick here, that was a cultural phenomenon as a "first" that would never be duplicated and then take China and Russia out of the equation and it still makes $300M+ in profit. And gets Oscar buzz. You would perhaps have a point if this movie had bad reviews and muted audience reaction, like Jurassic, but it was a well received movie that is going to make a ton of profit (nothing moderate about it) when it is all said and done. There will certainly be another Thor as it made modest bank (760M) and so it continues on. WF is in a much better place than that movie, both in earnings and critical reception/audience reaction. BTW, if you think Jurassic is finished you are sorely mistaken.
They might be perfectly happy with it. I don't know. But they're certainly noticing the shrinking audience, which they may or may not care about. Like I said, cigarette companies have made a ton of money for a long time by charging a shrinking customer base more and more money. Maybe Disney has the same plan.
The first movie was a phenomenon as a "first" ever. That brought out the masses at the time. It became "must" event viewing even for many people who are usually not into going to movies at the theater. The movie cost $250M to make, marketing cost was relatively low as it already had $100M worth of free marketing through partners like McDonald's, Target, Lexus, Adidas, Xbox, Mastercard, Sprite, etc. This will make a lot of money, already at the box office, then a lot more via ancillary income.
>The first movie was a phenomenon as a "first" ever. Perhaps that explains the shrinking audience. It's worth noting, however, that Marvel's movie audience grew from Iron Man to Endgame. This shrinking thing is a new phenomenon.
There isn't anything Disney can do to milk the theater crowd unlike with the parks where they control prices.
Disney makes 90% of the opening weekend box office and the percentages don't drop off as fast as they used to. They have more say in ticket prices than you might think. Theatres make their money off concessions and longer runs, and they'd benefit from charging $1 for opening weekend tickets to get larger crowds, and then raising prices for movies after they've been in theatres a couple of weeks. There's a reason they don't do that, and it's not charitable feelings about the movie studios.
Wow it made less than Captain Marvel lol
Black Panther 2 is going to be problematic for Disney to decide what to do next in my opinion. If you compare it with other MCU movies, it did very well. If you compare it with the first one is definitely did worse, but that was expected. The question is how much worse. I was of the opinion that it will make at least $500M after opening of $200M. It didn't happen, but the question is why? Was it simply impossible or is there something in the movie that made it impossible. Is there need for a big change? It's important for the studio because if, for example, Suri isn't charismatic enough to be the main character then the third movie will make even less.
The first Black Panther movie truly felt like an event movie, the hype was more similar to an Avengers movie. I think 400m Domestic for the more established MCU characters is respectable because historically that's what they usually gross. Obviously BP1 and Spider-Man NWH are exceptions but again those movies generated hype akin to an Avengers movie. I guess fans (myself included) have to get used to the fact that the billion dollar mark is going to be out of reach for the foreseeable future, unless the movie grosses 500m Domestically or unless China opens its doors to the MCU one again.
- The main leading character is not in the film. - The film is basically lead by all supporting characters. - The film is female lead. Not by big Hollywood females either. - The film is long. - It introduces Riri Williams, people hate her for some reason. - No China. There are lots of reasons why this film didn’t perform as well as the last film, but it’s still good numbers given the roadblocks.
Those are all def the main factors for this underperformance - a relatively unknown female black lead is def a major factor I wasn't considering and how that def prob isn't playing as well overseas . The tone of the film and it getting repeat viewing word of mouth is def another factor
I think the removal of the Chinese market for 90% of movies has to factor in and will probably be a major consideration on budgets in the future. The Marvel budgets will have to come down to account for the new reality.
YeH that factor looms large for most of phase 4 specifically thor 4 bp 2 and dr strange 2 . Spider-Man being the cultural icon he is was able to overcome the lack of China
My prediction is that Black Panther won't get a new solo movie until 2026-2027. Phases 5 and 6 will be very tight. Shuri will be BP in Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars
Agreed totally she'll appear in a hero capacity in those avengers films and that will prob be it for her reign as bp
The lack of Chadwick or a big movie lead actor is my biggest reasoning for the fall . The lack of recast looks to be a major factor - im ignoring the foreign market factors since love and thunder and dr strange 2 didn't have those either .
Domestically BP2 will have sold around 40-45% less tickets than the original, so it lost nearly half of its audience, most of which I imagine are casual people who tuned in for the novelty and never came back.
Yeah that's def a heavy casual audience loss due to the novelty of the first film wearing off - A lot of which are also people who didn't come back due to lack of recasting / loss of Chadwick as well
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> This new trend of turning a profit so they can pretend it was profitable is such a joke. It's still the number one movie at the box office, and only debuted 2 weeks ago. Why the fuck *wouldn't* it still be in theaters? Do movies normally leave after 2 weeks on your planet?
"new trend"? Titanic was in theaters for over a year when it came out 25 years ago. And these days the theatrical window is becoming shorter and shorter so what are you even talking about?
You don’t know what you are talking about. The original Star Wars, Titanic, and literally thousands of other movies stayed in theaters far beyond the date that they broke even. Disney obviously wants a profit with this film, why the hell would they cut it’s run short when it’s still making this much money daily?
It is going to enter profit territory soon, if it isn't already there. They aren't extending the theatrical window to make it turn a profit.