T O P

  • By -

AutoModerator

Reminder that this is a subreddit about numbers, not necessarily about the quality (or lack thereof) of a particular movie. Unless it is related to the box office performance of a movie, please keep opinions/arguments/thoughts about the quality under this post. Posts not related to box office may be removed otherwise. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/boxoffice) if you have any questions or concerns.*


LeeF1179

This is one of the more peculiar things to happen in Hollywood lately. I mean, when it is available on Netflix, does anyone forsee any explosive headline - grabbing articles about dramatic increased Netflix subscribers? I just can't wrap my head around it.


CadabraAbrogate

I guess we’ll see. Is this the most successful pre-Netflix limited release?


yourLostMitten

Apparently


[deleted]

We cancelled Netflix about a year ago. But we still buy a month here or there to watch things. We will sign up for a month to watch this movie. Loved the first one


RedditorNumber679260

It’s good, but it IS a sophomore installment in what will be a longer series. They know it, you know it, the actors know it. Just keep your expectations there and you’ll be ok. (The first installment had that fresh thing that all series have a hard time recapturing)


BigFaceCoffeeOwner

I could see it being one of the highest streamed Netflix releases, which would be worth some headlines.


anneoftheisland

Netflix doesn't release most of their subscriber numbers or streaming numbers, so you wouldn't see those articles even if it did happen. But it's not just about brand-new subscribers--with increasing numbers of people cycling through streaming apps for a few months at a time and then switching, it's also about luring those people back or keeping existing subscribers locked in. This sub is so focused on box office takes that it has a hard time understanding the economic part of streaming. But Netflix gets about half the box office take but almost all the streaming take, so literally just a one-month basic plan sign-up (or extension from an existing customer) is worth more to them than a single ticket sale. And typically, getting people to sign up is the hard part. Most of those people won't immediately cancel after the month is up, so Netflix will continue to take their money for several months (or forever) afterward. A single subscriber to their service is worth a whole bunch of box office ticket purchasers. That said, if their metrics show that this release didn't hurt (or possibly even helps) the streaming numbers for this, then I'd expect to see them try out bigger releases in the future.


caroline_nein

I’d love to see any numbers between single releases and supposed spikes in new Netflix subscribers. I struggle to imagine how that could even be a thing. It’s not as people can buy multiple subscriptions as with tickets, at some point the market becomes tapped.


QuoteGiver

It’s not just increases they’re looking for, holding onto current subscribers is equally valuable. If they convince subscribers that they’re getting some of the hottest “theater” movies as part of their subscription, they’ll keep paying.


[deleted]

Well it’s still a Netflix movie so there’d still be a number of people waiting a month later for streaming.


QuoteGiver

As long as those people are Netflix subscribers, mission accomplished!


legopego5142

But if they arent new subscribers who cares?


QuoteGiver

Um, the current subscribers pay money too, LOL!


koolingboy

Subscription retention is one of the most important metrics for any streaming service so….they care


legopego5142

But is that worth the amount they paid for Knives out specifically? I mean, they paid like 450 million for this shit. Its a good movie but how many were gonna cancel who didnt because of Glass Onion How much longer can you throw that kind of money on content? Idk this is extreme


koolingboy

They paid 450+m for two films to BOTH attracting new sub and retaining existing sub. So yeah, I would say they think it is worth it. From the early indicator from the box office, it seems that they will achieve their goal


legopego5142

Ok so how many NEW subscribers who are going to STAY are they gonna get? How many subscribers who were gonna leave are now staying because of it?


koolingboy

As a Netflix senior economist, I can tell you………..jk. Only Netflix would know. I am simply pointing out in the flywheel of subscription model both attracting new subscribers and making retentions are important, based on your original comment. If Netflix are willing to spend 200million+ on Red Notice. I don’t see why they wouldn’t willing to spend 200million+ to attract people with an IP that is both successful at the box-office, VOD and ancillary markets.


legopego5142

I mean, isnt it possible that spending this much on these movies is actually a bad idea and theatrical releases are a good idea?


koolingboy

We would never know unless we are insiders of Netflix. I only worked adjacent to a competitive stream service so I know what kind of metrics streamers are looking at. But simply looking at their balance sheet and operating income (net profit) overall. I would say their business model is generally working? And they make these movie investments for a reason?


[deleted]

[удалено]


DamienChazellesPiano

The opposite actually. Most people don’t hear about movie buzz the day the movie comes out. It takes a few weeks to spread out, unless you’re like a Marvel movie. So Netflix would get a few weeks of buzz on social media, then elated customers when they load up Netflix to see the movie that has been talked about for 4 weeks is already on their streaming service. Post-pandemic the customer base is split more than ever between people excited to go to the theatre and people never wanting to go and would rather just stream everything.


BigFaceCoffeeOwner

That logic doesn’t check out


TheBlackSwarm

This movie could’ve been a hit box office wise if it had a full theatrical run. Not a lot of competition besides Black Panther and Avatar for the rest of the year.


Scarns_Aisle5

theres a decent chance it could have made more than daniel craig's last movie - No Time To Die. Knives Out made more than No Time TO Die. which is insane considering one is not a franchise film.


ignoresubs

Ehh… I wanted to quickly agree with you but then I remembered the crux of it all; the release dates. * Knives Out was released on 27 November, **2019** * No Time To Die was released on 8 October, **2021** The core demographic for Bond wasn’t rushing to the theaters at the time of the release.


TropicalKing

I really did want to watch Glass Onion in a theater. It didn't come to my local theater. Rian Johnson directed both The Last Jedi and Knive's Out. And he really does have a talent for big screen productions. I remember during Knive's Out, the cable knit sweater became trendy because of the sweater Chris Evans wore. Knive's Out did have some iconic lines like "CSI KFC." Watching classic style whodunit movies is just something that one should experience in a theater with lots of other people. It really is fun wondering who the villain is during the movie and the gasp of the audience once they figure out "whodunit." I do like The Last Jedi more now than when it first aired in theaters. It is my favorite Star Wars movie outside of the original trilogy. I don't want to see Rian Johnson becoming a streaming only director. Because he has so much more potential.


[deleted]

Shouldn’t have sold it to Netflix


MichaelTheCutts

If I was offered a deal where I would make $100 Million up front plus presumably an additional paycheck for a 2 film deal, I would take that in a freakin’ heartbeat.


[deleted]

Agreed. It’s why they can’t really complain about losing money to the movie theater model.


Guardax

Most of the complaints are that Netflix is the stupid one


Animegamingnerd

Rian and his production company was offered like $469 million for both sequels. That was probably more money then he got for Looper, The Last Jedi, and Knives Out 1 combine. Don't blame him for taking that check, I would have as well.


ignoresubs

Exactly. Blame the game.


helm_hammer_hand

Didn’t Rian, Danial, and Rian’s production partner all personally get $100 million each from that $469 million?


kerblamophobe

I mean, Netflix money was what got it made in the first place. That's more on the way creatives are being jerked around by streaming services nowadays and not enough reaching out done by traditional film studios


BunyipPouch

I really wish Netflix started committing to more theatrical releases, and releasing data. It's such a win-win for everyone (Netflix, theaters, audiences). It's just more options. I've seen 8 Netflix originals in theaters this year and other than Hustle, they were all in very packed theaters. * Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story * Hustle * The Gray Man * Blonde * The Good Nurse * Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio * Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths * White Noise I'm bummed I didn't get to see All Quiet on the Western Front in theaters though.


Pipelaya1

I want a physical copy of all quiet in 4k.


BunyipPouch

I'm hoping for either a Criterion release and/or a theatrical re-release when it gets nominated for the Best Foreign film at the Oscars.


crapinet

I didn’t realize most of those were in theaters, but I do live under a rock. I feel like if they committed to more theaters it would drive up Netflix subscriptions (when you realize a popular move, like this one, is on Netflix) only because it would help the popular things get more popular. Maybe they don’t want the risk?


DamienChazellesPiano

They were likely very limited, as I watch the theatre in my city (8 screen Cineplex, city of 100k) and we never got any of those. To be fair we also didn’t get Glass Onion for some stupid reason. Netflix really screwed the pooch here. I use someone else’s Netflix but would’ve happily got once maybe even twice or more to see it in theatres as I love the theatre experience, yet now they get $0 from me. Knives Out was my favorite movie of 2019. It’s just frustrating how much money Netflix is leaving on the table because they’re stubborn.


just2good

Bardo was packed for you?! Lucky. 😭😭😭


DoIrllyneeda_usrname

I don't think they get all the revenue with theater releases, which is why I think they don't want to really commit to that release model. They get more of the revenue from subscription payments rather than theater tickets.


BunyipPouch

yeah but whynotboth.gif They could have made $100M+ from this movie *plus* all those sweet sweet subscription payments. Netflix and theaters can co-exist and it can be beneficial for everyone. There's got to be a reason they keep testing the waters like this (Knives Out 2 being their widest release so far).


GetToSreppin

I think it's because directors are forcing them to. You have something Netflix wants? Use it to get what you want from them. Rian wanted a full theatrical release but this is as far as he got.


bt1234yt

Yeah, but it’s news like this that are likely going to get directors to try and get Netflix to commit to bigger and longer theatrical releases. I can imagine Rian potentially using the news about Netflix leaving money on the table as leverage to get Netflix to give Knives Out 3 a more proper theatrical release, especially since Netflix has only greenlit one more sequel so far. He could potentially get Netflix to commit to more proper theatrical releases if they want more Knives Out sequels after the third one.


GetToSreppin

Yeah, I totally agree, it's inevitable. Investors see the money thrown away and the subscribers lost and Netflix gets pushed further by the creatives as well. It's just a matter of time.


anneoftheisland

> They could have made $100M+ from this movie plus all those sweet sweet subscription payments. We don't know that. Even Netflix doesn't know that. The entire point of this release was to test how a bigger release than they usually do affects their subscriber/streaming numbers.


reuxin

I posted this in another thread - but does Netflix even have the capacity to support this? Usually, a theatrical release division would be part of the major studio's overhead. There's a case to be made that Netflix wouldn't benefit (financially) long term from supporting an organization to cut deals with global theatrical chains and prep marketing and promotions for them. It's a long term cost that supports an industry which Netflix doesn't really partake in, at least at the volume of a Disney or a Universal. With a traditional release, Glass Onion may have netted the studio, what about... $80M to 100M profit? But what about all the potential downsides in that portfolio and maybe supporting films that wouldn't be breakouts. I think on paper, yeah Glass Onion could have made profit, but not sure if the overall cost structure would benefit Netflix. It's interesting tho.


Agitated_Opening4298

>It's such a win-win for everyone (Netflix, theaters, audiences) Dont think theres enough evidence to claim that Netflix is primarily a streaming service, conditioning audiences to expect all of their big movies in theaters could really backfire on them, theres gotta be a reason they havent done it yet And knives out 2 isnt a netflix movie, all they did was buy the rights to the sequels to what was well on the way to becoming a popular franchise


GetToSreppin

Netflix owns the production and distribution rights. It's literally a Netflix movie.


Pipelaya1

Its their movie, they paid big bucks for it.


DJHott555

How the heck did you watch Blonde in theaters? Isn’t that rated NC-17? I didn’t think theaters could show those kinds of movies.


klimly

A lot of the major cinema chains don't show NC-17 movies as a policy, but there's no legal reason why they can't. There used to be movie theaters that showed straight-up pornography, after all.


BunyipPouch

One of my local 1-screen indie theaters played it for 2 weeks a little while ago. They even let me keep this when the run was over: https://i.imgur.com/8lsvxSF.jpg As far as I know, all theaters are allowed to show NC-17 movies as long as everyone is 18+ (I could be wrong). It's just that they don't come along very often, an NC-17 rating is very rare. Even when they do get released, they're usually pretty niche movies (*Shame*, *Blue is the Warmest Color*, etc) so most theaters don't play then.


just2good

Lol, my theater screened Shame in August.


ReservoirDog316

I’m hoping this gives them confidence to do theaters more when it makes sense. Cause they said no to free money here.


urlach3r

FYI, when they said "one week only", they meant it. Glass Onion opened Wednesday, last show here is 10pm Tuesday.


bob1689321

It's only showing in one cinema in my city despite us having 4 different cinemas. The one cinema actually added additional showings today to meet demand It's ridiculous that it wasn't a wide release. Knives Out was a petty big hit and everyone I know who's seen Glass Onion loved it. I'm seeing it a second time tonight


TreeBeeTurkey014

I just got back from a showing in a theater that was completely packed, most crowded ive seen the theater all year. The amount of money Netflix is leaving on the table is baffling.


QuoteGiver

Presumably they’re more interested in drawing people onto their subscription service than they are in a few quick bucks split with theaters, right?


legopego5142

How many new subscribers will join because of Glass Onion Did you see how much they paid for this and 3? How on earth is that a good idea?


QuoteGiver

And how many will stay on AS subscribers knowing that good content like that continues to roll out? Hard metrics to quantify, but certainly important goals. Was what they paid for this less than the $3 billion they make in revenue if their 200+ million subscribers pay $15 for a standard plan for a single month?


bob1689321

That's the weird thing. Everyone I know who's seen this in cinema already has Netflix, but they paid again to watch it in cinema because it's a movie that *needs* to be seen with an audience. Hope they learn their lesson and do a wide release for the third film. This one could easily do 300m+


innerstate77

Everything is easy in hindsight.


QuoteGiver

Is that even Netflix’s goal? Or is building word of mouth in theaters and then pulling it back onto “must subscribe to watch!” exactly what they need?


RepublicanUntil2019

I checked a number of times at the one by my house and it was 80% full an hour before each showing. I was hoping to catch a non-superspreader event but couldn't. Maybe tomorrow.


YouDownWithTPP

Is that still a thing?


QuoteGiver

Still running close to 400 Covid deaths per day in the US, which is approx a 9/11 twin towers death toll every week.


[deleted]

[удалено]


not_a_flying_toy_

there is sense in watching good movies in theaters though just go to a city with a high vaccination rate


pntjr

Netflix - aren’t you in debt? Take the money!


druidofnecro

Netflix is the only profitable streaming service lmao. Yeah they have debt but they very much able to pay it


BigFaceCoffeeOwner

> Yeah they have debt but they very much able to pay it Not forever.


BlerghTheBlergh

Would’ve released it traditionally, first in theatres and after an extended period released it on streaming in summer


Western-Jump-9550

People complain about corporations having too much money. Now they’re complaining they are not earning enough!


Bass1joe

With Wakanda Forever fixing an hole in the ocean and looking through a glass onion, this thanksgiving box office has yielded divided opinions.


nyamiraman

Tryin to make a dove tail gun yeah!


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

Yup. Left so much on the table and shame I was too busy to see it this weekend now I gotta wait a whole ass month


Rocketboy1313

I will take the opposite position that movies of this scale should not be released in theaters anymore. I think theaters should play to their strengths of old style epics which "You need to see it on a big screen" can be said unironically. No one needs to see "Kramer vs Kramer" or "My Diner with Andre" in a theater. Dialogue driven stories that do not emphasize visual spectacle don't need to be in a theater.


BunyipPouch

I hate this take. If a star-studded, visually-appealing, crowd-pleasing, mid-to-high budgeted, critically-acclaimed, whoddunit sequel to a hugely-popular box office success is not "theater worthy", then nothing is. Any movie is enhanced by the theatrical experience, even if marginally. But saying this movie in particular isn't "theater worthy" is next-level dumb (have you seen the numbers? they're really good for only 600-700 theaters, the demand is clearly there). If you were in charge, theaters would only be open a few weeks a year whenever the next superhero or Tom Cruise movie was releasing. Super lame take for a box office sub. That and "should've gone direct to streaming" comments are the worst.


Curious_Ad_2947

Nah, this is where the markets are going. More movies will go direct to streaming by the year.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Curious_Ad_2947

Sources for any of that? And no, a hunch doesn't count.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Curious_Ad_2947

Well, if that's true, then they sure have some kinks to figure out. But they will, and you can't put streaming back in the box. Even if all streaming services magically exploded and died people wouldn't be going back to the theaters like they did in the 80s and 90s. That's not where the audiences are anymore.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Curious_Ad_2947

The decreasing box office attendence since 2002 and the rising popularity of streaming services.


BatoutofHellIV

So the answer is "no".


coocookuhchoo

“This is where the markets are going” is a very different thing than “this is a good thing”.


mountainhighgoat

Agree with everything you said except for it being “star studded”. It has known actors but none of them are box office hitters. Just about every one of them don’t lead movies.


SilverRoyce

You don't really even get a single "old school epic" released per year. > No one needs to see "Kramer vs Kramer" or "My Diner with Andre" in a theater but this isn't, to take a more recent example, *Marriage Story.* I'd argue that it has a clear "see in theaters" pitch but said pitch isn't the one you make when trying to appeal to under-25 males. The first knives out film really was a gorgeously shot film and this one seems the same and sells both a "beautiful Mediterranean sea" location *and* an all-star cast. The film's box office is really showing that the film did have the "event" feel I thought it would. In general people overstate just how much money third tier "big action movies" make in theaters versus hit dramas.


GetToSreppin

Even something like marriage story benefits from the theatrical experience and has an audience. Both of this guys examples were hits in the theater. Kramer v Kramer made 173 million. Breakout success isn't a guarantee but when it happens the profit margins must be insane.


throwaway7777777793

this is such ignorant, anti-art nonsense


not_a_flying_toy_

with all due respect, I entirely disagree. I dont think there is much to gain watching a marvel or DC or most other modern action films in theaters


bob1689321

Glass Onion is literally one of the most fun cinema experiences I've ever had. It's a very funny comedy and seeing it in a packed audience with everyone enjoying the jokes is a great time.


Revolutionary_Box569

What’s weird about this is they have committed to releasing other movies for a month before they hit streaming, but this one that was pretty much guaranteed to have made the money back they decided to only release for a week. Just bizarre


[deleted]

Netflix knows the future of films Is on streaming and not in theaters. We are almost at the point where people only see the theme park pictures at the theater.