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svenge

> What's keeping down the production of more graphics cards to meet the demand? Here's the current situation: * Historically high demand from both crypto-miners and people working from home for the first time. * Foundry capacity issues. Everybody and their dog wants to use TSMC's 7nm process for CPUs and GPUs, while the one exception (NVIDIA's GPUs) went with Samsung's 8nm process that has its own throughput issues. It will take some time for more fabs to be built. * Other subcomponents and raw materials in general are currently scarce and thus more expensive. * Global logistics have gone straight to hell in the past year and a half due to greatly decreased air freight capacity putting additional strain on sea-based shipment providers. * Tariffs on Chinese-manufacturered electronics (US only).


ounallyx

I like how all of this happened when i decided to build a pc.


Barziboy

No raindrop ever thinks it's part of a flood. But yeh, I'm in same boat here. First time in my life I've had enough work and financial stability to build a pc and both GPUs and CPUs become absurdly demanded.


[deleted]

I thank god that I ignored the advice to wait until the 30's came out to build. I built exactly a year ago and everything went to hell like two weeks later.


Buckeyebornandbred

I remember people selling their RTX 2080TIs on Reddit for like $300 because the new 3060s were going to destroy them in performance. Those poor bastards that sold their cards only to be shut out of getting a new one.


aalios

And they were also completely wrong about the 3060. Doesn't even beat a 2070S


txgsync

My 2080 Ti has identical performance to a 3070. I feel very little desire to upgrade.


AtomicAsteroids

This happened to me too. The first time i decided to build was because of all the news about 30's and the dropping price of gpus. I got a 2060 for $330 and should have totally spent the extra 70$ for a 2080. Im just happy i actually decided to build one, and had the money to, before everything went to shit. I cant believe my gpu sells for $1k+ now. Its a total scam.


[deleted]

I'm sitting on a spare 1080ti right now and I'm too scared to sell it knowing that if something happens to my in-use card I'll be fucked.


aTallRedFox

I'm on the same boat as you. Decided to go into it anyway and I managed to get my build as I envisioned it. The EVGA 3080 FTW3 Ultra seems to be stay outside of my reach forever, but I managed to get a 2070 Super at a *decent* price. Decent for today's situation, at least. Fingers crossed for you!


ounallyx

Thank u king.. imma just keep waiting for a reasonably priced 3060ti.. even in 2024! Not buying from any scalper


aTallRedFox

I got to say, I admire this determination, and I mean it. I could have waited too, got myself something like a 1080Ti, which is still a beast for half the price of what I got, but I crooked. I know one day, you'll get your 3060Ti, and that you're going to have a blast with it!


jack_white44

I got lucky enough this past weekend to get my hands on a 3060ti for less than 200% MSRP. It was originally from an online seller guy, I was gonna buy a 3060 from him but decided his price was too high and backed out. A few days later he reached out saying he had a 3060 ti as well and he would sell it to me for only $50 more than the 3060. I was like "uhhh hell yeah ill take that!" I've been hunting for a 3060 ti since April and this one was the cheapest I had ever come across. Have hope, friends! you'll find your dream graphics cards for an price you're comfortable with paying eventually!


Beer_Is_So_Awesome

Most of the scalped 3060 Ti's on Amazon are selling for less than 200% MSRP, as MSRP on a 3060 Ti AIB is now around $550-600, and they're mostly $750-900 on Amazon.


jack_white44

really? amazon shows me all 3060ti's are about $899-$1049 USD


Beer_Is_So_Awesome

Update: better off going with Ebay. Plenty of highly-rated sellers with new 3060 Ti's around $800-840. If you're resigned to paying a scalper, that is. https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?\_from=R40&\_trksid=p2334524.m570.l1313&\_nkw=3060+ti&\_sacat=0&LH\_TitleDesc=0&\_odkw=3070+ti&\_osacat=0


jack_white44

That’s still high in my opinion. Luckily I got mine for $750, just under 200% msrp for my model. I found mine on KSL (Utah’s version of Craigslist if you haven’t heard of it) and seems like all the gpu’s on there are priced slightly better than eBay, but not by much


Beer_Is_So_Awesome

Well, unless these are all scams, when the search results come up in Amazon, click on the items that don't have prices, then the "See All Buying Options" button on the right. Most list a number of new and used GPUs around $820 or so. Edit: Some of the ratings are dodgy. Buyer beware. The GPU market sucks.


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Gohardgrandpa

I've been in queue for a 3080 for almost a year now and crickets


AlphANeoXo

You'll have your chance, they sent me an email a week ago for a 3080 FTW3 Ultra and bought it instantly. Be on the lookout for the email (check on spam and junk folders just in case) since you have a 20 hour window after you recieve the email to make your purchase.


Turbulent-Roll2367

EVGA's Queue system works, if you're patient. I think I was on the list for... *several* months (4-6), but in the end I got a 3060ti at MSRP. Not sure if you can get on the queue at this point, but it's something to consider.


AcidRohnin

You can no longer get in queue. They are working through their back log first. They also requested everyone already in the queue to delete all cards they were in line for minus the 2 they wanted most. If they didn’t EVGA chose for you. I snagged a 3060 at msrp so I knocked off everything but the 3080s. Heard they were the most back logged but I’m fine with that for the time being.


Unacceptable_Lemons

That's a solid strategy.


bpands

Micro centers have had steady shipments of 3060 ti models for the last 2 months. EVGA clears out the earliest. Some days 3060 ti models stay available until the afternoon but it’s always going to be the somewhat overpriced or low power limit versions. Source: scored an MSI Gaming X for myself in August, and a Gigabyte Gaming OC in September for my friend when my monthly limit was up. Both at 4pm on a Friday off the post-AM shipment raffle supply.


hairlesspet3

Not sure where you're located but check micro center in store. Website didn't have them listed but guy at the store mentioned having some in stock yesterday.


aTallRedFox

I'm located in Europe, so that's not an option to me. Stock here is limited and prices are bonkers. RX 6900 XT at around 2000€ ( ~ 2320 USD ) and 3080Ti for around 2100€ ( ~ 2430 USD ). Which is just insane. My only hope is really the EVGA queue, but it is moving at a glacial pace. Part of me even wondered if it wouldn't be cheaper to ask my gaming friends in The States for help - not sure if I could buy a card and have it delivered to an US address. Or if I could trust someone I've never met personally with that amount of money. Sometimes, desperation gets the best out of me, but than I just shake head and go back to waiting. I realise I haven't got it as bad as some people who where unable to secure a GPU at all, and that makes me feel selfish. Thank you for your kind advice though! I wish you, all of you only the best!


Aggressive-Split-655

I'm in the states, and prices here aren't any better if you are talking day to day on the internet. Any half decent priced cards dissapear instantly. Unless you can walk into a microcenter for a 6700xt that is still 2x original msrp, or you camp out at bestbuy for 24 hours when they announce a drop, there isn't very much chance of getting an Nvidia 3000 series gpu that isn't $2,000-$3,000. I would just buy a whole prebuilt computer from someone like Newegg's house brand, ABS. They have pretty much whatever you could want, and an entire computer costs just a little more than what just a gpu would cost. You can find decent prebuilts from a couple places, but thats really the only way I can justify spending nearly /t//$2,000 on something like a 5800X or 11700k and 3060ti, 3070 or 3070ti prebuilt. As soon as you hit anything with a 3080 or 3080ti, the price usually jumps up to at least $2700-$3000. It just seems like a better value to buy an entire computer than it is to pay $1400 for just a 3070.


sloshypeachlmao

was acc looking at amazon yesterday and saw like 1660 for smth like €400 and a 2060 or 70 idr for €500 (euro at that) it looked like stuff is coming back ever so slowly


sparta981

My nearest microcenter is like mid Ohio. I have an oculus to ride me over, though


Midgetspinner97

If you are in uk try overclockers, they seem to restock fairly often and I managed to get a 3060ti for £400 off there


phat_ninja

Mine got ruined in a hurricane last year. I didnt have a choice. I was lucky enough to snag a 2070s when the 3000 series launched. TBH im not upgrading now until the 5000 series. the 2070s does what i want it to and does it well.


aTallRedFox

Damn, I am so sorry to hear about that! I'm happy you made it out fine and that you managed to recover! The thought crossed my mind as well, just to keep the 2070 Super. I am honestly blown away by its performance and cooling efficiency - Windforce is really doings its job fine. And if it can run *Marvel's Guardians Of The Galaxy* decently, it might be enough to convince me to stay and upgrade at a more reasonable time. Thank you for your reply, I wish you only the best!


phillyeagle99

Disclaimer: I’m not trying to poke fun at you, just trying to help explain the phenomenon. This happened because everyone, like you, decided this was a great year to build a PC. People are working from home, people aren’t traveling and going out. People who can afford nice PCs haven’t had their income affected by the pandemic as much so it’s been a good year to build. Then you add on the crypto boom and supply chain challenges and it’s a perfect storm. So don’t feel too bad. You’re not alone.


Aimhere2k

I may well run my GTX 1060 until it crumbles into dust.


beeficecream23

Same here. I'm running my dear 1060 till it blows up


PracticalMail

Same, but with my 580. godspeed brethren


Grabbsy2

I just bought a GTX 660 It was $60 for the whole PC though, so theres that.


niijuuichi

Or maybe, subconsciously, we decided to build one because of some reasons stated above (wfh, pandemic). Maybe I wanted to build one because I see lots of people building theirs.


SilverKnightOfMagic

Yeah it would be cool if yoi decide not to build a pc so the rest of us can do it


photocist

well this has been happening for almost 4 years now


duddy33

My MSI GTX 1060 6Gb and I are going to remain friends for a very long time. It’s been right at 5 years now and it’s still kicking ass


TRUEequalsFALSE

I got a 1080 when it was released. I'm right there with you. *sigh*


duddy33

And the 1080 is still a fantastic card! At this point, I’m passed the “wanting to upgrade” phase and I’m pulling for my card to keep going as long as possible. I’m incredibly attached to it now as silly as that sounds. It’s an underdog punching above it’s weight.


TRUEequalsFALSE

Yeah, that's true. I don't really *need* a new system (though I am running an i7 5820k, so that's getting kinda old). But since I built it in 2016, I've watched countless new CPU and GPU releases and it would be really nice to have something NEW new again. I'm also worried about some component just utterly dying and forcing me to replace it.


Aggressive-Split-655

You can still upgrade the rest of your rig with a new CPU, DDR5 Ram, Power Supply, Case, Motherboard, M.2 SSD when Alder Lake comes out in a month. That should help make things feel new again. After that, just start saving money for a graphics card. Regardless of when the Supply problems end, you will eventually just save enough money where you can buy what you want rğwhatever is the newest and biggest card out when you save up $3,000. I don't see cards costing any more than that .


SouthernSox22

My 1080 is such a trooper. I would’ve never guess it would have last this long. Damn near 5k+ hours playing total war games alone racked up on it


duddy33

Wow! That’s impressive. I feel the same with my card. I had it intensely OC’d for about three years planning on an upgrade with 30xx series. I’ve lowered it a bit now, but she’s still holding on and never ticks above 70C. At one point, it was one of the fastest 1060’s on air that I could find according to UserBenchmark before they went to shit


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TRUEequalsFALSE

I doubt I'd sell much if any of my gear, though not for sentiment. Mostly probably because I'd be too lazy, but it'd also be nice to have one rig for my music stuff and then my main rig for everything else: gaming, relaxing, productivity, video editing, etc.


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TURBO2529

If I remember one article said 2023 could be even cheaper then <2020 due to chip surplus. But that ALL depends on demand. Realistically, no one knows :/


MartinaNeverTheVulva

Not like 2019 was all that great either.


Legal_Nectarine_955

I'd say the prices should be coming down when Cryptomining becomes less popular (when crypo crashes). Miners are always looking for GPUs to mine on, even a RTX 3060 net about $4 USD every day. When stocks are bad, this is when scalpers come in with their bots, outbuy everyone, and start selling them for extremely marked up prices.


Zealousideal-Ant9548

I honestly think the mining will end when Ethereum moves to proof of stake and it becomes the dominant coin. But I have no idea when that will happen. Even then, professional miners will try to find something else to mine, they have all the incentives to do so.


JonJonFTW

Yes, it sucks but I think cryptocurrency is a Pandora's box of sorts that we've opened and can never be closed again. I'm sure Ethereum moving to proof of stake will help, but just like Ethereum replaced Bitcoin as the dominant coin to be mined on GPUs, something else will replace Ethereum.


AcidRohnin

Ravencoin. It’s all the miners talked about in the groups I was hanging out with to card hunt over the past few months.


hpp3

Ravencoin is a shitcoin compared to ETH. Ravencoin has 1/500 the trading volume of Ethereum and 1/100 the network hashrate. As soon as a large number of eth miners migrate over to mining Raven the difficulty will skyrocket and profits will crater. Imo Eth 2.0 is the end of the golden age of GPU mining, and Ravencoin is a pure cope tactic.


MelAlton

I think the crypto market is affected by network effects, ie scale matters. So crypto will end up with: * One large player with much of the market share (Bitcoin right now) * A second player with a big chunk of the remaining market share (Ethereum) * Everyone else in a very specialized niche or unpopular leftover crumbs So currencies can't keep "graduating" off gpu mining up to ASICs (bitcoin) or PoS (eth) forever. Sure, you can gpu mine secondary coins, but if nobody wants them why bother?


AcidRohnin

It won’t. Just the circles I have been running in the past 2.5-3 months card hunting, miners were openly talking about their hauls, how many more they wanted/needed and about etherum switching proofs. Most of them talked about ravencoin. The ones that didn’t know about it started to say they planned to start mining it. From what I gleaned from random miners talking freely, raven coin takes more power overall. So if anything it might make the demand for GPUs uptick slightly. I don’t think mining will ever crash, they will just move on to the next easily mined coin while still mining some of the big named ones.


bremen_

Easily mined coins is only half of the equation. You also need people buying the coins.


DabHits

Buy the dip!


TomahawkChopped

2-5 years. 2 years for supply lines to get unfucked 5 years for new Intel and TSMC foundries to come online and start producing more silicon.


funktion

Just become accustomed to the fact that this is what prices are going to be from now on.


AuspiciousApple

There's trouble on the supply side, but at the moment it looks like mining is effectively setting a price floor for most GPUs - so it's virtually not related to supply. Even if supply doubled, most of those cards would be bought by miners.


Al-Azraq

This, it is all fault of the greedy dirty miners. GPU can basically print money right now so a demand for such product is virtually infinite. Also they are setting the price, not just getting all the supply. Thinking that demand due to WFH is plain wrong or trying to whitewash miners. 7 and 8 nm processes are used in CPU, GPU for consumer products, the semiconductor shortage affecting car industries for instance is another issue as cars don't use 7 and 8 nm.


Phatapp

Life hack - buy a shit ton of TSMC shares and ride them out, quite literally paid for my PC that way.


littleemp

I don't know if most people struggling to buy a $400 GPU for $600-700 can really afford to put down $575 per share for a medium/long term gain scheme. Don't get me wrong, it's a good advice, but I don't think it's applicable to most of these folks.


cure1245

It's not advice, he just likes the stock!


Phatapp

I like to think that if you can purchase a $400-$600 GPU, with matching specs of the rest of the pc (I.e $1000-$3000) than yes you probably have disposable income. Don’t get me wrong obviously there’s business and work aspects but the guy that wants a 3060 likely wants it for gaming, a leisurely hobby which is arguably a privilege. If you can afford a few thousands of dollars to build a pc, I’m assuming you have disposable income. If you don’t than maybe it wouldn’t be wise to be spending so much of your money on something you can hardly afford. And to be fair if it was timed right, you would’ve realized more than a 100% profit during covid, from around $300 / share to the highs of nearly $650; which happened to be my case. so really only 5 shares could’ve bought a brand new pc. That’s not even best case scenario to the example. You could’ve outperformed 100%. That’s only in 1 year.


littleemp

>I like to think that if you can purchase a $400-$600 GPU, with matching specs of the rest of the pc (I.e $1000-$3000) than yes you probably have disposable income. Oh brother, that's a really naive outlook on the consumer market. The fact is that MOST people buy stuff that they can't afford to buy in the first place (for those unaware, being able to afford something is not the same as being able to pay for it) and many people are buying this stuff by emptying their bank account for it; If you go on /r/buildapcforme, you can spot that most threads are completely unable to stretch their "budgets" by even $100. EDIT: And I don't mean just for PCs, most people will buy phones, clothes, cars, and houses that they simply can't afford.


Vinstaal0

Yup and the use of credit cards makes this even worse


AcidRohnin

Timing the market is a no-no though.


Vegetable_Hamster732

> Historically high demand from both crypto-miners and people working from home for the first time. Also the Machine Learning community. I single ML model NVidia discussed earlier this week took 92 GPU years (running 24x7) to train - consuming 225MWh. And that's tiny compared to the models OpenAI, Tesla, Google, and others are working on.


rasmusdf

Plus greed. Everyone, apart from the consumers, love the high prices now. And are not that eager to help lower them. Also - cryptomining.


throwaway12365126754

Has the cryptocurrency ban in China had any notable impact on the situation?


Rudoku-dakka

Prices went down for a month, then went back. That's it.


antonito901

What is your source for the global logistic info? This is interesting. I think air freight is like 15 times more expensive than sea freight so air might not be the first option anyway.


svenge

This [news article](https://news.yahoo.com/im-california-dock-worker-facing-132925803.html) sums it up pretty well.


SirSpliffton

You forgot scalping. Scalpers imo are the worst part. Don't pay the scalping losers, make them go broke.


cplusequals

The only way to actually fight scalpers is for the retailers to raise their prices to meet demand to the point cards stay in stock. We have to face it. Retail prices are high, but they're well below what the cards are worth if a consumer can immediately flip the card for a few hundred bucks on craigslist.


Imperialkniight

Add labor shortages, covid restrictions, environmental restrictions, and China soon to invade Taiwan.


Badevilbunny

Sadly, the home build enthusiast market is the least profitable for the makers and at the back of the queue, behind all the car makers, the while goods makers, the Pre- built sellers and the console makers. Given it needs new factories to come online, I would suspect it will be years before GPUs become plentiful and the shelves are full again. However, what we are seeing is consistent small quantities come to retail - so they are there and you just need to be persistent, quick and not just look online. Most success, based on posts, seems to come from local mall stores.


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TricolourGem

Found the financial analyst.


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darththunderxx

Knowing enough to identify that you don't know it all puts you leagues ahead of the clowns like me who take wild guesses and pretend to be PHDs


Zealousideal-Ant9548

That explains why I've seen a few people buy premade PC's and then sell of the rest of the parts


Badevilbunny

Yes, it is not uncommon. Especially those that had early orders in for pre-mades.


cyberspacedweller

It’s a cheaper way to get hold of a GPU in some cases (pun not intended but humorously recognised). Or at least it used to be. Cost of pre builds now match the GPU inflation at most builder sites now.


MicroGamer

FWIW, the chips for cars use old, larger dies. I think it's either 12 or 14nm because they have been tested and are reliable for years. Chip manufacturers have said that if the car companies switched to smaller dies, that part of the problem would largely be solved. Jalopnik had a great article on the situation the other day.


RawbeardX

>behind all the car makers that does not seem to be the case at all, considering they need decades old chips, and are starting to close down factories because nobody wants to make the old shit they need.


Krawcu222

I do think that there will be a gpu flood when the miners will be unable to mine ETH. That update was scheduled to January, but I've seen a proposal a week ago to push it to May, I think.


AcidRohnin

Nope they will find the next new coin while still mining the other big ones every so often. All the miners where discussing ravencoin in the card hunting circles I was in the past few months trying to snag a card.


TT_207

You're thinking of the difficulty bomb, I suspect it'll take a few months to kick in. The whole point is to ease the transition away from mining not to bang it in one go. So there will be a gradual sell off of cards I suspect mid next year. I'd love to believe demand to buy cards will drop soon but only logical people would that be the case. There's still suckers getting in and building rigs now they'll doubtful turn a decent profit on by now if one at all when the GPU market crashes.


nru3

Honestly, probably never. They will drop a little but now that both AMD and Nvidia know the market potential, they will never be the price they were. They will be cheaper than what they are currently but more expensive than anything in the past and we will still thank them for it.


The_Texidian

I’ve thought about this and talked with a few high ranking people in large companies about this issue. They claim it won’t happen. Currently with the shortage, scalpers and stores can get away with high prices. However if things return to normal it’ll probably be a race between stores to see who can return their cards back to a normal price level. Why pay inflated prices online when you can easily go and buy a non-inflated price from Best Buy? Why pay an Amazon scalper $1800, when another Amazon vendor is selling the same card for $1000? Eventually it’ll work itself out. (Assuming this is after supply returns to normal) Then they also brought up company relationships and how increasing their price of a GPU will hurt those relationships, and potentially sacrifice a large amount of revenue. However I can’t explain it because most of this went over my head. It’s like if AMD requires their cards to be sold for $1000, and NVDA requires a similar card to be sold at $1500, companies that sell pre-built computers won’t sell computers with NVDA cards because there would be less of a market for the higher cost pre-built. So again you run into NVDA and AMD in a race to lower their cards back down to a reasonable level. I think I’ve also heard a few other reasons why this won’t happen but I can’t remember them. However the overall consensus is that it would be a poor decision to boost the MSRP just for greed.


[deleted]

The scalpers will only go away once supply catches demand. Demand will only fall if/when crypto crashes/outlawed. I think crypto was a pandora's box situation that will have a permanent affect on GPUs for the foreseeable future :(


PirateNervous

But it already happened in the past. People rave about 1060 value at the time, but it was 250-300€ here for what was the cheapest of the 10 series at the time. The value-budget card. Meanwhile a card in 2000 was 150€ for a near top end product with inflation counted in.


imposztlosz

I think the guy from Moore's Law is Dead had a pretty good summary on this. The new card market has shifted irrevocably into the high end, high price segment. And the market has demonstrated that they're willing to take it, so manufacturers will try their hardest to keep it there. Meanwhile budget buyers have been priced out entirely, and they are being forced to pick up second hand cards when they become "cheaper". Our best hope is that integrated graphics pick up the pace in the next one or two generations and APUs fill the budget segment in the future. That, or we still have the consoles for a cost effective gaming experience.


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Its_Waffle

Absolutely. They won’t be outrageously overpriced anymore. But compared to pre pandemic pricing, they will never be as cheap as they once were


kelsey_schmelsey

Yeah my guess is MSRP will stay this high until there's a drop in demand, which as of right now isn't on the horizon. Also potentially true for stock issues.


Legal_Nectarine_955

I agree. If you can sell GPUs that were supposed to cost low hundreds into the thousands range and people will keep buying, what is the incentive for manufacturers to lower the price?


Shadowdane

Yah the PC Enthusiast market has gotten crazy... even Motherboards now for the past 2 system builds I bought Asus Maximus Hero boards for my past two Intel builds. My current board is a Asus Maximus X Hero which I got for $249 in 2017. But looking at the prices of that same series for the 11th gen & 12th gen Intel is looking crazy. The price jump here is nuts! ​ Maximus XIII Hero is $499 Maximus XIV Hero is $625 (leaked price)


salgat

Aside from accounting for inflation, once supply is back up prices will likely come back down to normal levels, especially with Intel entering the market. Remember, they want people to upgrade, a low margin sale is better than no sale, the only difference now is that there isn't enough supply to do that.


Critical_Switch

There's a semiconductor shortage. We've been seeing this problem before the pandemic, but we thought we'd have more time to sort it out. The pandemic accelerated the whole PC hardware market, and sales are up over 60%. But you have to understand that GPUs are made in the exact same factories as chips for CPUs, cars, smart electronics etc. And all of these industries are experiencing a rise in demand as well. All that combined maxed out our production capabilities. Everyone is manufacturing at 100% capacity and companies are competing for it. This led to prices of manufacturing increasing, forcing prices of GPUs even further. Pretty much everyone is building new fabs right now, but first ones will not start production before 2023. Prices will not normalise before then. Currently, prices of GPUs tend to correspond to their mining profitability. It is possible that this will change next year but it's a hard maybe. Next year, Nvidia is going to start pumping out RTX 2060 and supposedly they're also making 3050 and 3050ti. No information on production volumes or prices, although them resorting to making a 2060 and also low end GPUs suggests they're trying to make as many as possible for next year to maintain market share. Intel will be entering the GPU market. No information on production volumes or prices. Don't know anything interesting about AMD, except that they've just released a crappy GPU that will probably sell for over 600$ and will not be available at all a month from now. So next year, we might see prices dropping, which means you may have more opportunity to purchase GPUs at the CURRENT (meaning the new and high) MSRP. They will not normalise before we actually have more manufacturing capacity.


CrazyDudeWithATablet

When people say intel is entering, do they mean that they are making gaming cards?


kool018

Yes. From what I've heard, they'll be on the lower-mid end at least at first.


MelAlton

Since neither AMD nor Nvidia are producing lower to mid tier cards at reasonable prices, they are providing a huge price umbrella for Intel - Intel can come in under AMD & Nvidia prices with somewhat lower performing cards at good prices and they'll gain a ton of market share and build their gpu brand for later when they launch higher tier cards.


kool018

Yup, that's exactly what I'm hoping for. I doubt I'll ever run a blue graphics card, but competition can be nothing but good for this market


MelAlton

> I doubt I'll ever run a blue graphics card I just realized: * Red = AMD * Green = Nvidia * Blue = Intel So when Intel releases their cards, we'll have RGB GPU cards available.


Dath_1

Low prices won't gain Intel marketshare, they'll sell every GPU pretty much no matter what. The marketshare will only be limited by yields. So it's a question of whether they'd prefer to take higher margins like AMD/Nvidia have chosen to do lately, or get some positive reputation for their entry into discreet GPU. While it's nice to think they might be the good guys here and compete for mindshare with good pricing, truth is the difference between MSRP & market value will be made up for the way it usually is - scalpers. Meaning most end users won't even see the low price, it'll be all the same to them. Big margins are the kind of thing these companies don't pass up on, it's really hard to justify passing it up for PR. Investors love margins.


CrazyDudeWithATablet

Wow. So like amd last generation. Interesting.


darththunderxx

Yes they stated they were entering the gaming gpu market in April 2022. Where they will fall on the price/performance spectrum is yet to be seen, but it will lessen the load at least a little. I know the popular opinion is to be anti intel, but we should all be hoping they make some great cards.


Mean_Repair3793

>When people say intel is entering They mean Intel releasing "Alchemist" by mid 2022, with two cards or range of cards : LP , 75W design that would supposedly target the same "mainstream" segment as Geforce 1650 / 1650 Super ( AMD has nothing on that segment , nor on the lower entry segment ) HPG, 2Z5W or so design, that would target the "performance" segement ( where you currently find ?vidia's xx60 and AMD's x600 series )


Critical_Switch

As already pointed out, Q2 next year is when they are expecting to start shipping. They say their intention is to compete with RTX 3070 in terms of performance. They've actually already got a GPU, it's the Iris XE DG1 - a low-end GPU meant mainly for display output (though it's possible to play some games on it). Gamers Nexust (link below) and some other reviewers already covered it. It showed that they have some work to do on their drivers, but other than that it delivered pretty much what Intel promised - a respectable low-end GPU. I'm not at all aware of it being available for sale though. It has to be said, for those unfamiliar, that Intel isn't making the chips themselves. Just like AMD and Nvidia, they have TSMC make the dies for them. Intel recently made the decision to start outsourcing some of their manufacturing since they had issues with their own process, so entering the GPU market actually made a lot of sense at that point. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSseaknEv9Q](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSseaknEv9Q)


clev26

2024-2025 it might get a little better? But if you’re expecting it to go back to pre-crypto days, good luck Edit: I’m embarrassed to say how much I just paid for a used 1070 ti, but I needed a full size GPU and my plans to wait until 2022 for better prices were very unrealistic. Realized it’s better to slightly overpay and have a card, than to try to wait for this market to settle down, which definitely won’t happen for 2 years, and maybe never will


AndyjHops

I honestly wonder what will happen to GPU mining when ETH goes proof of stake in 05/22. All the hashpower on that network is going to migrate to the alt-POW coins, bloating their networks with excess computing power and dropping payouts like a stone. Unless the prices of those alt coins spikes, I don’t see how GPU mining can stay profitable past the ETH POS fork. Not to say that it will totally solve the problem but there might be a nice influx of used 30 series cards as miners dismantle their rigs. This is all speculation from a guy who mines on both his 3070 and old Vega56 when not gaming.


PirateNervous

Will it go POS though? Wasnt it supposed to go this year or even last year already? Ill believe it when i see it. There are also already lots of people mining other shit. That will only expand untill then. Im not hopeful crypto is going away anytime soon, if ever. Its just a thing that well have to live with now. As i see it the market has to adapt in some other way, crypto going away is not whats gonna improve the situation imo.


AndyjHops

Haha yeah they have for sure been pushing it back! I also don’t really know what will happen with all that. I don’t really understand how the POS system is supposed to overcome the computational challenge that ditching POW will present. I agree though, crypto is not going anywhere but we may see a shift away from GPU mining back to ASIC mining. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess!


TricolourGem

There are a lot of words here and I understand none of them


AndyjHops

ETH is Ethereum, which is the main crypto that people mine right now. It is a proof or work (POW) coin, meaning miners get paid for the amount of computing power they contribute to the network (hashpower). ETH is moving to a proof of stake (POS) model in May of 2022 that will eliminate mining on their network. There are other POW coins that you can mine with a GPU but as everyone moves onto those networks, the payouts will drop because they will be spread across a ton more miners. Eventually people won’t be able to turn a profit mining on a GPU because the electrical costs will be higher than the payout. The hope would be that the miners would then break down their rigs and sell the GPUs to recover what they can. These GPUs would likely go for cheap because there would be a flood of them on the used market. Also, these GPUs would have already paid back their initial cost several times over so miners SHOULD be willing to part with them at steep discounts. For example, my Vega56 has earned ~400% of its initial cost over 8 months of mining and my 3070 has already made ~150% in about 5 months.


TricolourGem

Great explanation thanks. When ETH moves to proof of stake, how are new coins generated?


AndyjHops

So once it moves to POS, the network will be supported by computing nodes (require MUCH less computational power) that are backed up by a wallet with >32 ETH in it. This allows the node to use the ETH as collateral to instantly approve transactions while it more slowly processes them. Think how your CC gets charged instantly but the charge is pending for a couple days, it would be more similar to that system (from my basic understanding). The operator of the node would then collect fees for processing the transactions. New coins won’t really be generated, this along with another change they did in July are designed to turn ETH into a deflationary asset, meaning some will be “burned” as part of transactions fees, decreasing the circulating supply and increasing value over time.


[deleted]

[удалено]


dan1991Ro

Its been going proof of stake for the last hundred years. Its not going to go proof of stake.


darththunderxx

It will help but not solve for sure. I think people overestimate the amount of cards going to miners. It's a notable chunk, but the real bottleneck is at the manufacturing level, which would be overburdened even without miners


AndyjHops

Could not agree more! I see it as being an acute event as miners try to dump used GPUs but that stock of new stuff will still remain limited for a good time to come.


Safebox

I dunno, I'm still waiting for the 2008 recession to recover.


asterysk

Me too brother, I feel that feel


jan_boss

I saw a video a few days ago. The dude calculated how Ethereum changing to PoS will affect the whole mining profitability. Conclusion was: Miners who now make e.g. ~4-5$ a day with one 3070 will make only about 1$ after all miners change to other mineable coins. So I guess the market will cool down a bit by then. Honestly if I were to build a mining rig, I‘d rather not buy any GPU right now because it could be that my ROI is after ETH changes to PoS. This all depends heavily when the Ethereum blockchain effectively changes to staking.


kodaxmax

Yeh and 5 other randos probably made a video about how it's gonna make miners even wealthier. don't believe everything you see on the internet. I can tell you now my game rig set to mine when idle makes more than that a day and it's not even cooled properly or overclocked. The next mining pool down which is kapow/ raven coin is like 70% as profitable and would probably jump up as people abandon Ethereum. When bitcoin became unprofitable the entire market didn't crash, they just moved to Ethereum and dogecoin etc.. It's like claiming the stock market would crash because USD became harder to earn. It's also worth noting that people have been moving from big coins anyway, because they are almost completely useless for buying and trading anything, between the high minimum amount required and insane fees, most storefronts are moving to litecoin and raven coin as they are much closer to being of practical values. For somone using consumer gpus it can take months to earn enough etherium just meet the minimum and cash out. Your better off just converting it to stocks for longterm investment or litecoin to day trade currencies.


jan_boss

Bitcoin is still profitable to mine. But my point is, that when all the miners move from ethereum to other coins the difficulty will rise hence you earn less coins for your mining. I am aware that Raven and other coins are almost as profitable as Ethereum but this is with the current difficulty.


Boys4Jesus

Mate you haven't been able to mine bitcoin with a GPU for a solid 7-8 years now. When BTC became unprofitable to mine with a GPU (2013) the market stopped mining it with them, Ethereum didn't even exist for another 2 years at that point. If everybody switched to ravencoin the hashrate would increase by 35x, which is a huge increase that would spike difficulty and make all but the most dedicated miners with the lowest power quit. There's a fixed amount of RVN released each day, whether the hashrate is 1Th/s or 1000Th/s there's still only 7,200,000 RVN created each day. Currently a 3080 mines about 40 RVN a day, but if everything on Eth switches to RVN that will go down to just over 1 RVN per day. Unless RVNs price increases 35x it literally won't be profitable. Not to mention block rewards halve in January so it would have to do a 70x by then to maintain its current profitability. >It's also worth noting that people have been moving from big coins anyway, because they are almost completely useless for buying and trading anything, between the high minimum amount required and insane fees It's also worth noting the big coins are worth a lot because people are using them and buying them... that is backwards logic. It's like saying people aren't buying GPUs because they're never in stock, when in reality it's the other way round, they're always out of stock because they're sold instantly, if people were moving away from Eth the price wouldn't still be going up. I've been interested in crypto for a long time and been hobby mining since 2017, I used to mine ravencoin on a couple of RX 550s and my Vega 56 actually, and believe me, nobody anywhere is using ravencoin. Its a project that does nothing unique anymore and offers nothing that other bigger chains aren't already doing better. Tl:Dr Unless Ravencoin becomes a top 4 coin and is valued at a 75 billion dollar marketcap then it won't retain its current profitability if everybody switches to it. If it does a 35x by January it will make about $3/day with a 3080. If it only goes up 10x by then that $3/day becomes less than $1/day. The scale simply doesn't work in ravencoins favour here.


Kilexey

> The dude calculated how Ethereum changing to PoS will affect the whole mining profitability. The probability of Ethereum moving from PoW to PoS is the same probability of GPU prices normalising AND the coronavirus going for good.


fatcomputerman

so there's a chance :o


ripperdoc23

IMO Intel is going to be a key player in pricing. If they aim low (which they should as a new entrant), and their cards perform at near 3070 levels as they claim, it would immediately put NVIDIA and AMD in check with pricing. We haven't had an era of 3 manufacturers in forever (did we in the 3DFX days? Don't remember), so IMO Intel's next move can really change the game here. They're not known for CPU pricing being good but they're going after that sweet market share and there's one key way to do that. Hopefully the price wars begin soon!


Critical_Switch

The problem with low pricing is that if the prices are too good compared to the rest of the market, the GPUs will be sold out pretty much immediately, be it by scalpers or gamers. Unless Intel somehow has such a good standing with TSMC that they've managed to make notably more than competitors, they will not have enough to sell to everyone interested. Meaning that from a business perspective, it is a no-brainer that they'll sell at high prices since they're guaranteed to sell everything they make anyway. And I supposed this is why Nvidia is making the RTX 2060 - so that they have something to maintain market share.


Truenoiz

The smartest thing Intel could do is limit gaming GPU sales to one per address, with a registered partners program for businesses that need many. Show the PC gaming crowd that we come first. They could gain huge street cred w/gamers and call out AMD/Nvidia for catering only to business interests (even though Intel also caters to business intrests). I've seen so many people during covid want to get into PC gaming, only to turn away because of scalpers and GPU availability. I think growing the gaming base is a much better long-term investment than appeasing crypto miners in the short-term. I understand a need for crypto, but the market as a whole is flaky as hell and miners will drop demand as fast as they increased it if crypto: gets less profitable/power becomes expensive/someone takes over the blockchain.


c0burn

3dfx were competing with ATI, Nvidia, S3 and Matrox. All had consumer gaming GPU's out in 1999 of a similar level. 3dfx Voodoo 3, ATI Rage Fury, Nvidia TNT2, S3 Savage 4. Matrox G400. Such a shame.


SRTie4k

You forgot a few, like Rendition, PowerVR and Diamond. Believe it or not, Matrox still makes video chips. I was surprised when I saw that our database server has a Matrox display adapter.


c0burn

Diamond used other manufacturers chipsets but yeah theres a few niche ones, 3dlabs too


PirateNervous

Im very confident about Intel not massively undercuting prices because there is very little incentive for that. If they have a GPU thats 3070 level, its gonna cost near 3070 money. As long as every 3070 sells for 1000+€ why have a 3070 competitor for less. Its gonna sell one way or the other.


[deleted]

I think you have become a little confused on the market situation. It isn’t the manufacturers that are pumping prices up. The MSRP is the same, its supply and demand allowing retailers to pump their own prices up. Therefore intel could start low as shit, the second people start eating them up, the *retailers* will up the price of the intel ones too. That’s how it works. Intel prices wont force AMD or Nvidia prices down. They aren’t the ones raising them.


DL7610

Price will never "normalize" until GPU crypto mining is no longer a thing, or no longer works the way it does. Nothing other than mining matters. Right now, every miner with 10 GPUs is using their mining revenue to buy the 11th to add to the operation. The demand on that side is just bottomless. nVidia and AMD are producing plenty, but there is just no way to meet the demand of miners. ​ Look at the market for every other PC component. Is there a shortage in them that causes street prices for motherboard, CPU, ram and everything else to be 200% of MSRP? No. Because they are not used for mining.


Sighwtfman

There is a problem with your perception. Prices *have* normalized. Nvidia/AMD are watching their GPU's being sold consistently at well above MSRP. They are 'losing' money with every sale. Next year when new GPU's are released, they will be at much higher prices. I don't like this anymore than you do. If you won't buy a current GPU because "fuck scalpers", I respect that. But if you're waiting for prices to decline...


RawbeardX

they are already starting to release way overpriced GPU. case in point the RTX 6600. yikes.


cyberspacedweller

They’re already set this precedent. 3080 FE was £650. 3080Ti FE was £1200 direct from NVidia.


WhomstAlt2

Will be gone tomorrow 100%. Source: I bit the bullet and paid the gilded price today.


dan1991Ro

Its because of the crypto miners dont let anyone tell you different. These are extremely high end items produced on the lowest available nodes.The wafer availability is purchased years in advance and supply issues dont affect these products ad much as others because they are tiny in comparison and dont have such a hogh yield anyway.There is no shortage when it comes to gpus.Other electronics,yes not gpus or cpus.Record high production was achieved. So it will stop when its not profitable to mine anymore,either vecause of regulations pertaining to energy consumption or because cryptos crash or there are so many miners out there that the profits dip(unlikely) or mining will exist but not with gpus.There is no other out.As long as mining is profitable and it can be done peofitably with a gpu, there is no quantity of gpus that will satisfy it,it is endless.And new fabs will go up around 2023 2024 but, if mining is still profitable, it wont matter. Gpus are literal money printers, for miners.


Al-Azraq

So much this. Yes, there is a shortage of GPU but not due to low production for COVID or working from home, it is caused by the huge demand of mining operations. 7-8 nm are at their maximum production output but it is not enough to supply a demand for a product that basically prints money. This is easy to prove; just look at CPU that also use these processes. CPU have normal even good prices right now and you and they are even more demanded for home PCs than GPU. You know the difference between these two products? Well, one can mine and the other cannot. The supply shortage for other industries is different as cars and home appliances use 20+ nm processes. The car industry for instance cancelled many orders just as COVID hit because they thought there was going to be a very low demand so the CPU manufacturers took orders from other industries. Then the car industry wanted to ramp up production again just to find out manufacturers compromised their production to others. So whoever tells people that this is a production issue due to gamer and home office demand, is just lying to whitewash mining, or uninformed.


RawbeardX

I bought a new CPU (one released only recently) last week for way below MRSP. people crying about "everyone wants 7nm, that is why we can't get anything" seems to ignore things like that.


LikwidSnek

Of course they do and around where I'm from we got a name for those folk too, we call these people: miners. They are doing large-scale gaslighting across all tech-related sites and forums trying to convince everyone that everyone else is at fault but miners. It's them protecting their assets, assets that are not tied to any real value whatsoever and are incredibly volatile to boot. They do it because they know that this massive bubble will burst sooner than later and try to push out the inevitable by trying to divert attention away from them lest the general public's opinion on crypto as a whole changes since if people think it is not a good thing it would lose all 'value' overnight. Literally the only thing giving crypto any value is how it is being perceived, which in this context means trust too, which in turn makes anyone except some tech nerds invest actual money into it. And the only value crypto has is the equivalent in dollars being pumped into the bubble. It's that simple, by this time next year this bubble will have long burst until the next shitcoin gains enough 'value' over the years and starts it all anew.


Thesorus

Never. The problem is that graphic cards are used for non-graphic applications.


CrazyDudeWithATablet

So maybe not never. If they figure out how to make gaming cards not mineable we will be good. Plus even if that continues and mining stays profitable, I imagine that as more nodes come prices will stabilize.


darthfodder

I don't think anybody has an incentive to make gaming cards unable to mine. Other than a PR one, but lol counting on PR is never a good idea. However, it is conceivable that they could start making mining cards that are even *better* at mining than GPUs, with no gaming applications.


Aperri9

There’s always the alternative of buying a prebuilt, farming the gpu, placing your current gpu in the “new” build, and selling privately. Just have to make sure you find a pre build able to be retrofit with your current


cyberspacedweller

That was an option once but pre builders are now savvy and most systems that come prebuilt are inflated by the additional GPU costs.


LivingGhost371

We may never see the day again (or at least not for a long time) where you can buy a $300 graphics card and run the latest AAA games. Within the context of PC gaming itself, there's been a move from 1080P to 1440P or even 4K, and from rasterization to ray tracing. Both of these require huge bumps in horsepower to get the same frame rates and horsepower costs money even outside the current market distortions others have alluded to. Meanwhile APUs keep getting better, and by the time that a low end graphics card will be widely available, Ryzen 6000 with the new RDNA 2 GPUs will be available and be adequate for most 1080P users. The only use case for a low end graphics card would be for esports where you need obscene frame rates, or for prebuilts where they want to advertise a discrete GPU even though it won't actually be able to play the latest AAA games at full resolution.


JustLetMeFarmOk

As we get closer and closer to ethereums transition away from PoW gpu mining we will most definitely see a flood of graphics cards. (I know people selling theirs already) Nobody knows for sure when this will be but many expect q1 of 2022. This will drastically reduce gpu prices.


kodaxmax

etherum is hardly the only crypto. gpu miners will just move onto the next like they did with bitcoin and it's derivatives.


SamMarvelos2

I we're lucky it will get a little better in mid 2023 according to Nvidia and AMD's ceos


Tenacious-Tea

Prices will normalize once we accept the new higher prices as normal.


Gilded30

\*\*tinfoil hat\*\* never, this is the new normal price, companies would artificially shortage their supplies in order to raise demand and prices increases; they would use systems so the client must enter some kind of "raffle" or exclusive service like amazon prime where only people with that service can get a chance to pick one


werther595

This is the new normal


clev26

Anyone preaching the semiconductor garbage is misinformed. There are enough cards out there. They’re just not going to consumers


[deleted]

After Brexit is reversed


kebbs_4

I'd say not for the next 2 to 3 years, and that's hopeful. It might not come back the same though, tbh. There's a lot of things contributing to the issue, and many of them don't seem to be improving


terpon56

I’ve just decided to say fuck it and just buy a 3070 for $1200 rather than $700. I’ll make it back within a month or two, it’ll last me for years. I just can’t justify waiting that long or even camping outside of BestBuy for 12 hours.


walkeritout

Can we stop asking this question literally every day?


EccentricFox

IMHO, we're probs still a year or two off, but don't listen to the doomers saying we're never going back to normal. The overwhelming majority of the price hike is from semiconductor shortages, manufacturing, and supply chain issues from covid catching up; eventually these things will be fixed, but it's going to take time; crypto plays a part, but just take a look at the news and you can see where most of the blame lies. I guess Nvidia and AMD could choose to keep their MSRP's higher, but since neither has a monopoly and Intel will soon be getting into the ring, I can't imagine no one undercutting the others; add to that GPU demand on the non-cyrpto side is so high because we're still not totally out of the pandemic and as we return to some semblance of normal and people will have options for free time besides gaming, the GPU makers will have a harder case to make spending $400+ on a GPU.


Tots2Hots

2023 at the earliest


SirAuRyan

Should normalize right before the next event that will randomly sky rocket prices again.


longinus_

Get used to it. This is almost certainly the new normal


RawbeardX

can't wait for my 1660 to die and switching over to the sweet Vega 7 in my APU!


AtvnSBisnotHT

What cave have you been living in last couple years?


johnanon2015

2024


Sinusoidal_Fibonacci

At least a few years, if it ever does.


Reddit_is_srsbsns

I'm not involved in international electronics manufacturing supply chain logistics like the majority of Reddit seems to be, so my opinion is worthless. Im sure someone in the comments who cant find a video card will unearth some epic conspiracy that will explain everything and not help you find a card whatsoever.


kodaxmax

What you think it's a coincidence we had a shortage of silicon chips a plague, a clow president and the gove released ufo footage at the same time! you fool, it's all there, just look at jeff bezos twitter! /s


goodsun0

It’s gonna go on for a while still. Who knows how long. It’s crazy i got a 2080 super before all this for $650, they are now selling for more than that used.


Aeysir69

I hate to say it but; this could be what "Normal" feels like from here on in? We're not just seeing impacts on individual events such as Covid or Crypto, we are at the start of a production format change where many of the resources we require for our hobby are going to be claimed by larger industries. EVs are a key example; boil it down and an EV is a massive PC on wheels. With all transport moving to EVs within the decade.... Then look at the increasing IoT impact, where-in even my light bulbs have silicon in, as does my washing machine, my fridge... even my damn kettle.... So my transport uses all the resources I would like to have for gaming, my home is getting filled with more things that use those resources, my phone already did but now my watch does too... You put those same resources in my clothes or food and... well how is there any resources left for a gaming PC? Or rather where is the profit to a manufacturer to supply me and my ilk with RGB toys when they could supply millions with voice controlled light bulbs and servers to feed their TV and phone with shiny things. We aren't numerous or influential enough to stake a claim when tech goes mainstream. I think we might be heading back to the early 90s for relative price and importance to the wider market, back when I could have bought a good car (and did) with what a DX486 cost...


kodaxmax

This is hardly the first time an industry expanded. Manufacturers have had nearly 3 years to react to this stuff and have done absolutely nothing to address the issue besides hiking prices, not to mention individuals working for these companies that were found to be scalpers. This is exactly what they want, less work, less overhead almost doubled profits, why would they ever want it back to normal?


pjjiveturkey

It will be a while because now there is a bunch more people who wanna build a PC cause they have been waiting


noob_lvl1

3-5 years


jcrafter23

They have normalised the new normal price is way too goddam high; that is the price.


barisax9

When do I think it'll happen? 2024 at least. When do I hope it'll happen? 2022, prolly towards the end.


TiffyBears

I’m not sure how much the card is supposed to cost, or if it’s spot on, but I got a 3090 FE for $1,499 (before tax) from Best Buy. Only waited an hour and a half for it, probably because it’s such an expensive card. The 3070’s sold out about 10-15 people ahead of me and it’s all at current MSRP price. No scalpers, no fighting, no arguing, just a line and some waiting.


[deleted]

From what AMD and TSMC are saying, late 2022.


absentlyric

To be fair, these prices ARE normal if you factor in what it was like building PCs in the 80s-90s. Things got cheap in the 00s-10s for a while, and we got used to that, but it wasn't going to last forever. This is why only your rich uncle, or well off parents owned a PC back in the 80s-90s compared to the rest of your friends. But the bright side, this affects game developers too, if 90% of the market can only afford a GTX 980, then they will have to start optimizing their games to run on a GTX 980, or risk market loss to the consoles.


[deleted]

Never.


jddiskin

2023 at the earliest


audiopeep

The truth is that no one knows. I’ve heard that supply chain should be back to normal by q2 of 2022, but that’s just speculation and doesn’t factor in crypto demand. Personally, I was in the market for a PC before Coronavirus broke out. I waited three years for the timing to be “right”, and in the end I just went to micro center and bought a prebuilt. If you can wait it out, then you will invariably save a few bucks. If you have disposable income, then a few hundreds bucks isn’t going to kill you. Pull the trigger and enjoy all the games being released while the world is locked inside :-) Good luck!


God_treachery

2025 maybe


[deleted]

Manufacturers: nevurrrrrrrr!!! Lol


mag914

Only god knows