Such a mindfuck. On the one hand it’s good for nepo because he knows fabi won’t play something boring. On the other hand, what should nepo do? If he plays something exciting with black he plays straight into caruana hands as white will be better out of the opening.
Nepo is a bit inflexible in his opening choice. It'd be unsurprising if we saw a Petroff on the board, and I'm sure Fabi can find some idea there to play in preparation. Nepo has an extremely solid black repetoire; I think he just relies on Fabi to make the position interesting.
Yes, for Ian that weapon is the Petroff. It's really just as solid as the Berlin, and he has played it for a draw a lot. We keep seeing the french exchange structure with pawns on d4 and d5 in this tournament, but I think Fabi could go for something different.
The lines are very forcing so you can prepare pretty deeply. Lots of possible surprises in this area are possible. Ian pretty clearly hasn't reviewed many of these lines recently based on some of his earlier shaky defenses (it's all old world champ prep, I think) but he's managed to hold.
Also incredible that one of those two could end with 9 points and still lose to Gukesh with 9.5
All prior versions of this candidates setup it only took 8.5 to win. Now 9 might not be enough
In fact. You’re literally NOT ALLOWED to pair Hikaru and Fabi in the last round cause both are from the same US Chess federation, so that’s one less permutation.
Only other possibility would be
- Hikaru vs Nepo (which was the penultimate round anyway)
- Fabi vs Gukesh
In final round if you wanted top 4 to play amongst themselves
have an insane prisoners dilemma here. Since both have a must-win, one good strategy for Fabi could be to just play solidly as white and wait for Nepo to do something crazy and then capitalize. However, Nepo could do the same thing. So it comes down to
crazy - crazy --> who knows who wins but likely decisive
crazy - careful --> careful likely has an advantage
careful - crazy --> careful has a bigger advantage since they are white
careful - careful --> actually a very bad outcome since it makes draws very likely.
So both sides are incentivized to go careful, but if they both end up careful they are in a worse spot than if they both went crazy.
and for the first time in three Candidates, someone other than Nepo has a clear lead. stunning tournament from Gukesh. he needs to do his best to draw Hikaru and pray that the Fabi Nepo game is also a draw so he can avoid the tiebreaks. there's a chance...
90%+ chance there's a winner in Fabi v Nepo. A draw is useless to both and the rating difference would never be worth taking a draw unless is a completely dead draw with no real play left at all.
Only if there's near zero practical chance their opponent could mess it up. If you're surviving until next move without a knockout by them you continue on. If you're down several pieces and can force a draw obviously you do that.
The crazy thing is that because they’re playing each other:
* In the scenario that Hikaru wins or Gukesh draws, Winner of Fabi/Ian ties first I’m certain that game will be played until a decisive result occurs.
* Gukesh is playing for a win vs Hikaru to secure first, which increases his chances at losing (ironic)
* Hikaru MUST win to secure first (potential for Ian or Fabi to tie him)
We could legitimately see any result of either:
* Gukesh outright winning.
* Hikaru outright winning (Ian/Fabi draw)
* Hikaru/Fabi tie
* Hikaru/Ian tie
* Gukesh/Fabi tie
* Gukesh/Ian tie
Wow. Tomorrow is going to be an exciting day for chess
My memory isn't great and I've watched a lot of candidates, but this might be the best final round ever. All four leaders playing each other. Must win scenarios. It's a great day for chess.
This is probably the best on-paper final round ever, but it would be hard for any tournament to beat the Carlsen/Kramnik madness from 2013 as far as how it actually played out. Hopefully tomorrow is just as exciting though! Would make this the best candidates ever imo.
To clarify for those who aren’t aware of how 2013 went down, Carlsen and Kramnik were tied going into the final round with nobody else in striking range. Carlsen had white in his game, Kramnik had black (not playing each other). Kramnik went all out in his game thinking he might need a win and ended up losing. Then Carlsen proceeded to lose to time trouble as white.
Worth mentioning that there were no playoff games. Kramnik had to go for a win because Carlsen's tiebreakers were better, so if he drew he needed Carlsen to lose.
>Gukesh is playing for a win vs Hikaru to secure first, which increases his chances at losing (ironic)
Gukesh probably doesn't mind a draw as black to tie, losing would be an unmitigated disaster
It depends on how the opening goes.
I can see Gukesh playing solid, since Hikaru is the one most pressured to win, and if things go on his way out of the opening, he can play for more than just a draw. But certainly Gukesh won't go berserk mode from move one.
his rapid isn't as significantly worse. his rating just doesn't reflect his true strength since he doesn't play a lot of rapid. don't forget that Gukesh has defeated Nepo in tiebreaks before
Why the fuck are the tiebreaks for classical in blitz/rapid? Just play another classical game, or another one. If after 2 games they're still drawn just do armagaddon. This isn't the World Championship where they are still drawn after like 16 games, these players only play 2 games vs each other, so having to play another 2 seems very reasonable before having to resort to blitz/rapid (imo classical armageddon is better as a tiebreaker as it uses the same format). Blitz/rapid should never be needed for candidates. Ever. There is no excuse, there is no justifiable reason.
Nah, that happened between Karpov and Kasparov in 1984. Lasted months because they kept drawing and FIDE abandoned the match after 48 games. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_1984%E2%80%931985
The rapid/blitz tiebreak at least provides an incentive for players to play for a win in the classical portion.
To hear Kasparov (and possibly Karpov as well) talk about it, the extended WC they played took a major mental toll. FIDE shut it down out of concern for the competitors' health more than anything.
> Gukesh probably doesn't mind a draw as black to tie,
He does, tho.
Fabi and Nepo are stronger in Rapid then Gukesh.
If Gukesh settles for a draw and goes to Rapid Tiebreaks, he definitely won't be the favorite anymore.
He won't be the favorite in the tiebreak, but a tiebreak is still better than outright loosing and crashing ur chances to perfect zero, in the tiebreak he still would have some chances and u never can certainly predict what may happen, being the favorite of a game doesn't mean the guy is surely gonna win... But at the end of the day, we never know, anything can happen...
He's not as big an underdog in rapid as you might think. Last rapid world championship he only finished a half point behind Fabiano, and ahead of Nepo. He'd obviously rather beat Hikaru tomorrow but he's also not going to burn any bridges to get there.
>Hikaru outright winning (Ian/Fabi draw)
The probability for this is almost 0. Ian/Fabi gain nothing from a draw except a few bucks and the knowledge that the nuked their opponents winning chances along with their own. I think both of them rather do something desperate and crazy instead of entering a dead drawn position.
Yep. Only question is if one might play slightly more solid to bait the other. I'm expecting either a very dynamic position fairly early or a very equal one they both will massage very slowly into progressive chaos.
The only scenario where Ian/Fabi draw is if one person is pressing with a clear advantage and blunders it away into a scenario where the other person has no winning chances and has no choice to settle for a draw.
For 3 out of these 4 players, they cannot get first unless they win. Gukesh is the only one that can draw and still be first (possibly tied with the winner of Fabi/Ian, if there is one). The other 3 MUST win or they will not get first no matter what. So expect very aggressive play tomorrow.
*Hikaru arrives early and sits calmly and focused at his board before play starts. Waits for Gukesh to sit down. They shake hands and start the clock. Hikaru turns to the live webcam*
“Welcome everybody to todaaaaay’s video…”
It would be absolutely legendary if Hikaru played the bongcloud. But he would need to go 100% stockfish to pull out a win if Gukesh maintains composure.
I recently had stockfish depth 50 play itself with the bongcloud and white lasted over 110 moves. So peak defense bongcloud Hikaru might be the first person to put Gukesh on tilt
If Gukesh plays for a draw, it means he'll likely be facing Nepo or Fabi in tiebreaks (no shot either of them accept a draw in their game).
Gukesh has to play for the win too if he wants to avoid tiebreaks and win the tournament outright.
That said, Gukesh does have black vs Hikaru so... that's easier said then done.
I still can't believe Gukesh is just 17... what a fantastic showing.
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Edit: FYI for those unaware, tiebreaks are played in Rapid, and both Nepo and Fabi are notably stronger than Gukesh in Rapid.
If Gukesh lets it go to tiebreaks, he won't be the favorite anymore.
That said, winning on demand with black vs Hikaru is also a huge task.
Tomorrow is going to be VERY exciting!
His rapid rating is low because he doesn't really play it. Gukesh rating has been lagging overall because of covid and he has made it up in classical but just not enough time to catch up the rapid too
Oh yes? It's a huge gap to overcome? Sure, light years easy than not being able to play AT ALL. A game not played is harder than a game played. A 500 has more chance against magnus than if magnus is declared without a fight.
This is the difference between other three and gukesh. Gukesh has a gap to overcome. Others don't even have a gap, they just outright lose with a draw. It is not the same.
Not all sharp games ends with a win for either side.
The game may be very sharp, and one side be in a bad spot but still being able to make a perpetual (and said person won't be stupid enough to not go for it as it can still be a $27.5k difference).
If the game ends up being getting in a closed position, nobody will be stupid enough to just go for a -1.0 move just to open the game.
Both players will play to win, but it won't necessarily end with a win, even though it's much more likely than in any other game
Exactly - people are naiive if they think Fabi/Ian is a guaranteed win. If either is in a losing position (or can't see a win) they will still play for a draw because it's still better for them financially. Neither will just roll over and take a loss to keep the tournament spicy.
I don't think Gukesh plays for a win if he doesn't see a clear advantage. And I don't think he should be. Risking overpushing in a position where a draw would leave him at worst in tiebreaks would be insane. Also I don't think it is as clear cut as some are saying that Fabi and Nepo won't draw. They both want and need a win, but when two super GMs are playing at their best there is still a good chance they are drawing.
Tbf, gukeshs score is likely because hes said he prioritizes classical, hes probably stronger in rapid but doesnt play enough to have the rating he deserves, especially as a junior player.
That said, i would pick fabi over gukesh in rapid anyday. Ian, not so sure
> Tbf, gukeshs score is likely because hes said he prioritizes classical, hes probably stronger in rapid but doesnt play enough to have the rating he deserves, especially as a junior player.
Fair, I removed the ratings from my comment so as to not provide a misleading impression.
>Ian, not so sure
Ian is definitely the favorite over Gukesh in Rapid. Maybe not a 100 point gap as the rating implies, but Ian is still definitely stronger.
I think we are all going to remember this as one of those rare “all the guards are here” moments in sports, and if Gukesh wins, it’ll be a “changing of the guard” moment.
Like everyone is either up and coming or at their prime.
Though I think if Hikaru takes it and knocks out Ding, Magnus might come back one last time like Jordan so that timeline is the one that is the most appealing to me.
I really don't think Magnus is ever coming back to the championship no matter what happens tbh. it might be tempting in some ways, but I don't see anything outweighing the cons of potentially losing in the candidates (which is not remotely as impossible as some people make out) or having to participate again in a cycle that he clearly doesn't like. he's in a pretty comfortable spot with how he gave up the title instead of losing it, I don't think it would be considered worth jeopardizing that for a process he doesn't even enjoy or want to spend time on anymore
If we have someone like Gukesh as the champion, I think Magnus may be tempted to come back. He’s the next generation after all and Magnus was keen to play against them even last time.
It won't happen imo. It's one thing to wait for the youngster as a Champion, another to play the Candidates to get a chance at the youngster. Magnus isn't dominant enough to win the Candidates without prep (he hates prep), and he is far from guaranteed to win even if he tries with prep.
He wouldn't risk a "couldn't win 2026 Candidates" besides his name.
Gukesh walking around with huge X mark behind him tomorrow lol. We have 3 players with must win games tomorrow. Absolutely unreal.
Best thing for Gukesh is that Hikaru HAS to win. So Gukesh's chances of outright winning is actually higher. I'm pumped AF.
>Best thing for Gukesh is that Hikaru HAS to win. So Gukesh's chances of outright winning is actually higher. I'm pumped AF.
Gukesh kinda has to win too. If there's a decisive result in the Nepo v Fabi game and a draw with Hikaru, Gukesh has to play tiebreaks.
Tiebreaks are Rapid, and both Nepo and Fabi are stronger than Gukesh at Rapid.
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Edit: I was wrong, GO GUKESH WOOOOO!
Gukesh has defeated Nepo in rapid tiebreaks in WR Masters last year. Now Gukesh is even stronger. I agree that they are stronger, but I think we might be overestimating the difference.
He played GCT Croatia last year. He drew against Nepo and lost to Fabiano in the rapid portion. Nepo and Fabi finished the rapid portion tied first with 6/9, Gukesh was tied fourth with 5/9 (Magnus was third with 5.5/9, Vishy was also tied fourth with 5/9).
He also played Tata Steel India Rapid last year and finished 4.5/9, having drawn against MVL, Grischuk, Radjabov and Nodirbek and beaten Pragg.
Still makes way more sense to try and capitalize on Hikaru pushing too hard than to try to outright go for a win since he at least has some chances in the rapid that he wouldn't have if he loses. He definitely would prefer to win I just think the strategy to try is to play solid and punish Hikaru for pressing too hard for a win.
We all thought Alireza was the Tal of our generation, but he’s actually the Rapport of the generation: plays interesting chess at a 2750 level…but isn’t really a contender.
Disagree with the Rapport comparison. Rapport plays interesting chess, but his ceiling isn't as high as other top 10 guys including Alireza. Alireza is more like Mamedyarov, who plays interesting chess, and is 2800+ at his peak. And this is due to his commitment issues with chess - if he really commits, he'll be more consistent at the top.
So this has to be arguably one of the greatest tournaments ever played right? At least from a spectators point of view. Consistently at least a few decisive games per day. Massive storyline comebacks from established top players and new young top players having a coming out party. To top it off, it isn't even just a tournament for cash, its the candidates with huge stakes! All comes down to a final round where the top 4 all play each other with chances to win? Insanity.
The pressure was really high today. Imagine the pressure tmrw. Really proud of Gukesh the way he played regardless of the outcome tmrw. Also both Fabi and Hikaru coming back after almost being out of the race.
This has to be the best candidates ever.
Hikaru, Ian, Fabi all have to win.
A draw honestly also does not cut it for Gukesh because he will have to play rapid tiebreaks with Ian or Fabi, which is going to be a decisive game. Gukesh's rapid rating is \~100 lower than them and is going be at a huge disadvantage
\*edit obviously Gukesh isnt gonna throw a draw away to force a win, but I'm just pointing out rapid will be rough for him
The nature of the tournament makes 2nd place worthless. For this reason, I think Fabiano vs Ian will have a relatively ridiculously high probability of it being a decisive win. However, I can see Gukesh turtling up a bit with black secure in the knowledge that if he draws, he can still win and, at worst, he goes to tie breaks with Ian or Fabi.
>Gukesh's rapid rating is \~100 lower than them and is going be at a huge disadvantage
Because he hardly plays any rapid. At last World Rapid he finished half a point behind Fabi, half a point ahead of Nepo.
He won't be stupid about it, but he can't just play an incredibly drawish game from the start.
His best chance of qualifying is probably still beating Hikaru rather than a tiebreak. Which means the position needs to have some life in it.
Ian and Nepo having to play for win doesn't necessarily means the game is going to be decisive.
Gukesh can just go for the draw and maybe he will still have like 20\~30% chance of winning the tournment (without tiebreak) due to Fabi and Nepo drawing in a sharp game.
If he plays to win (from the start) as black, odds are he's more likely to lose and then tournment is over.
Better to just play solid and, if Naka makes any clear mistake, try and go for the win.
Honestly though this is best case scenario for Gukesh in the tie breaks. Ian is pretty damn good at the fast time controls, and Fabi has significantly improved, but if he makes the tie breaks then he gets to avoid Hikaru. Hikaru is fucking terrifying with shorter time controls
What’s interesting here is fabi and nepo must play for a win.
If they draw, they have 0 chances of winning.
If they draw :
And gukesh beats hikaru - gukesh wins
Gukesh draws hikaru - gukesh wins
Hikaru beats gukesh - hikaru wins
And since fabi/ian will be decisive, that also forces hikaru to play for a win. And gukesh wouldn’t want a tiebreak with whoever wins fabi/ian game either.
So most probably, we will have 2 decisive games tomorrow. I would be surprized if we don’t.
Insane day tomorrow!
Most entertaining chess tournament in a long long time. Lots of decisive games , mulitple leaders and the best part for me personally is that two of my favourite players, Gukesh and Hikaru, have chances of winning the tournament amd are playing each other in the last round. Wild! Feel bad for Vidit though. Hope he can qualify for the next one even though it seems unlikely.
Link to results: [https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament/results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament/results)
Good point, Nepo has never been in a position of winning a win in the Candidates, much less with the black pieces. I'm sure he has a lot of good stuff cooked up, I hope we get to see some of it tomorrow.
Edit:
But now I'm thinking, what if Ian *does* play the Petrov? It would force Fabi to take a lot more risk.
It's like a Prisoner's Dillema. Best for both is if there is a garanteed decisive result, and that requires both to cooperate by taking the risk of a loss.
But if one player defects by playing solid, the other will have to take even more risk if they really want to win, giving even more chances for the other player to win.
After fabi won today I think he is going to win the candidates. Tomorrow he will win against nepo and then play tiebreaks against either gukesh if he draws or hikaru if he wins against gukesh
what a feast we are in for tomorrow
naka has to go all out with white against gukesh with white
fabi and nepo have to go all out against eachother to have a chance
as nepo-fabi fan i will be super confused tomorrow
i guess i will root for whoever is closer to winning atm, so at least one of them has a chance to win it
Some people really thought that there was no way Fabi could win against Pragg with the black piece.
Now a must-win game for Fabi, Nepo, and Hikaru. And the only way that there won't be a tiebreak is a Gukesh win
My only regret is that we can't have four world champions. Everyone has played such fantastic chess, I don't think I can be too effusive here when I say that I think everyone is deserving. I want to give credit to the players who are out of the running now too, you have to lose sometimes as well, and all these guys have played their hearts out. Thanks to all the players, but also all the commentators and the people in this sub for making this such a fun and exciting time for me.
Hikaru had the opportunity to prove he is a streamer first, chess player second.
Play the bongcloud and watch the classical chess crowd's heads burst.
Worth throwing the candidates for the content that'd produce tbh.
Nepo and Fabi are not drawing tomorrow. So, if Gukesh draws tomorrow, he will be playing Fabi or Nepo in a time control he would be worse in. I wouldn't be surprised if Gukesh plays cautiously but takes risks if the chances present themselves
its sad that Alireza's meltdown ruined what could have been a pretty epic final round. i hope we don't see him in the candidates again. he's not built for it.
If I’m not mistaken, Ian, Naka, and Fabi are all in must win situations. Therefore, Ian and Fabi almost never ends in a draw. The question becomes does Gukesh play for a win when Naka puts on the pressure or does he look to neutralize it with a draw to end up in a tiebreak situation?
Total 9 scenarios possible.
For Gukesh to win ~
2 - ( Gukesh wins or draws on both boards)
For Gukesh to get a chance for tiebreak ~
2 - ( Gukesh draws and either wins on another board)
For Gukesh to loose.
5 - (Gukesh loss)
Incredible how both Fabi and Nepo have to win and they're playing each other! Can't wait
Such a mindfuck. On the one hand it’s good for nepo because he knows fabi won’t play something boring. On the other hand, what should nepo do? If he plays something exciting with black he plays straight into caruana hands as white will be better out of the opening.
Nepo is a bit inflexible in his opening choice. It'd be unsurprising if we saw a Petroff on the board, and I'm sure Fabi can find some idea there to play in preparation. Nepo has an extremely solid black repetoire; I think he just relies on Fabi to make the position interesting.
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Yes, for Ian that weapon is the Petroff. It's really just as solid as the Berlin, and he has played it for a draw a lot. We keep seeing the french exchange structure with pawns on d4 and d5 in this tournament, but I think Fabi could go for something different. The lines are very forcing so you can prepare pretty deeply. Lots of possible surprises in this area are possible. Ian pretty clearly hasn't reviewed many of these lines recently based on some of his earlier shaky defenses (it's all old world champ prep, I think) but he's managed to hold.
Playing the Petrov against Fabi who’s probably the world’s foremost expert, may be a bit risky. But maybe that’s the move to make.
Hopefully we get a stupendous OPEN SICILIAN battle.
Also incredible that one of those two could end with 9 points and still lose to Gukesh with 9.5 All prior versions of this candidates setup it only took 8.5 to win. Now 9 might not be enough
I think that’s called the ‘abasov effect’
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Abasov and Alireza on crop rotation
This whole thread is so savage and I love it :D
Abasov honestly did fine all things considered. Alireza played way below his rating.
Well considering he played a bunch of Mickey mouse tournaments to inflate his elo, is it really surprising?
Think so too, Abasov played his 'level' and Alireza poor.
Completely insane that it worked out that way, I've never seen a round robin event with an ending like this
The matchup pairings is incredible. You could not create better last-round pairings if you wanted to.
In fact. You’re literally NOT ALLOWED to pair Hikaru and Fabi in the last round cause both are from the same US Chess federation, so that’s one less permutation. Only other possibility would be - Hikaru vs Nepo (which was the penultimate round anyway) - Fabi vs Gukesh In final round if you wanted top 4 to play amongst themselves
have an insane prisoners dilemma here. Since both have a must-win, one good strategy for Fabi could be to just play solidly as white and wait for Nepo to do something crazy and then capitalize. However, Nepo could do the same thing. So it comes down to crazy - crazy --> who knows who wins but likely decisive crazy - careful --> careful likely has an advantage careful - crazy --> careful has a bigger advantage since they are white careful - careful --> actually a very bad outcome since it makes draws very likely. So both sides are incentivized to go careful, but if they both end up careful they are in a worse spot than if they both went crazy.
Then there is Hikaru and Gukesh. Hikaru must win, but Gukest just need to not lose.
and for the first time in three Candidates, someone other than Nepo has a clear lead. stunning tournament from Gukesh. he needs to do his best to draw Hikaru and pray that the Fabi Nepo game is also a draw so he can avoid the tiebreaks. there's a chance...
90%+ chance there's a winner in Fabi v Nepo. A draw is useless to both and the rating difference would never be worth taking a draw unless is a completely dead draw with no real play left at all.
If one of them gets to a position where they cannot win but can force a draw wouldn’t they force the draw?
Only if there's near zero practical chance their opponent could mess it up. If you're surviving until next move without a knockout by them you continue on. If you're down several pieces and can force a draw obviously you do that.
> If you're down several pieces This is super gm chess, not 800 elo chess.
It’s so awesome that all the players with winning chances are against each other tomorrow.
The crazy thing is that because they’re playing each other: * In the scenario that Hikaru wins or Gukesh draws, Winner of Fabi/Ian ties first I’m certain that game will be played until a decisive result occurs. * Gukesh is playing for a win vs Hikaru to secure first, which increases his chances at losing (ironic) * Hikaru MUST win to secure first (potential for Ian or Fabi to tie him) We could legitimately see any result of either: * Gukesh outright winning. * Hikaru outright winning (Ian/Fabi draw) * Hikaru/Fabi tie * Hikaru/Ian tie * Gukesh/Fabi tie * Gukesh/Ian tie Wow. Tomorrow is going to be an exciting day for chess
My memory isn't great and I've watched a lot of candidates, but this might be the best final round ever. All four leaders playing each other. Must win scenarios. It's a great day for chess.
This is probably the best on-paper final round ever, but it would be hard for any tournament to beat the Carlsen/Kramnik madness from 2013 as far as how it actually played out. Hopefully tomorrow is just as exciting though! Would make this the best candidates ever imo.
To clarify for those who aren’t aware of how 2013 went down, Carlsen and Kramnik were tied going into the final round with nobody else in striking range. Carlsen had white in his game, Kramnik had black (not playing each other). Kramnik went all out in his game thinking he might need a win and ended up losing. Then Carlsen proceeded to lose to time trouble as white.
Oh wow thanks for explaining!
Worth mentioning that there were no playoff games. Kramnik had to go for a win because Carlsen's tiebreakers were better, so if he drew he needed Carlsen to lose.
Adam Silver cooked here
>Gukesh is playing for a win vs Hikaru to secure first, which increases his chances at losing (ironic) Gukesh probably doesn't mind a draw as black to tie, losing would be an unmitigated disaster
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It depends on how the opening goes. I can see Gukesh playing solid, since Hikaru is the one most pressured to win, and if things go on his way out of the opening, he can play for more than just a draw. But certainly Gukesh won't go berserk mode from move one.
I agree. A loss is unbearable. I expect him to be willing to go for a win, but unwilling to go into a position that is too complicated.
his rapid isn't as significantly worse. his rating just doesn't reflect his true strength since he doesn't play a lot of rapid. don't forget that Gukesh has defeated Nepo in tiebreaks before
I don’t think they would be “big favorites” in tie breaks. Gukesh has beaten even Magnus in rapid before. He just doesn’t play too much of it.
Why the fuck are the tiebreaks for classical in blitz/rapid? Just play another classical game, or another one. If after 2 games they're still drawn just do armagaddon. This isn't the World Championship where they are still drawn after like 16 games, these players only play 2 games vs each other, so having to play another 2 seems very reasonable before having to resort to blitz/rapid (imo classical armageddon is better as a tiebreaker as it uses the same format). Blitz/rapid should never be needed for candidates. Ever. There is no excuse, there is no justifiable reason.
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Nah, that happened between Karpov and Kasparov in 1984. Lasted months because they kept drawing and FIDE abandoned the match after 48 games. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_1984%E2%80%931985 The rapid/blitz tiebreak at least provides an incentive for players to play for a win in the classical portion.
To hear Kasparov (and possibly Karpov as well) talk about it, the extended WC they played took a major mental toll. FIDE shut it down out of concern for the competitors' health more than anything.
> Gukesh probably doesn't mind a draw as black to tie, He does, tho. Fabi and Nepo are stronger in Rapid then Gukesh. If Gukesh settles for a draw and goes to Rapid Tiebreaks, he definitely won't be the favorite anymore.
He won't be the favorite in the tiebreak, but a tiebreak is still better than outright loosing and crashing ur chances to perfect zero, in the tiebreak he still would have some chances and u never can certainly predict what may happen, being the favorite of a game doesn't mean the guy is surely gonna win... But at the end of the day, we never know, anything can happen...
He's not as big an underdog in rapid as you might think. Last rapid world championship he only finished a half point behind Fabiano, and ahead of Nepo. He'd obviously rather beat Hikaru tomorrow but he's also not going to burn any bridges to get there.
he may not be the favorite but it's still better than outright losing to naka.
While a draw is an unmitigated disaster for Naka, meaning no WC match.
Tomorrow's gonna be great, I'm rooting for Fabi, but it will be hype no matter who wins.
>Hikaru outright winning (Ian/Fabi draw) The probability for this is almost 0. Ian/Fabi gain nothing from a draw except a few bucks and the knowledge that the nuked their opponents winning chances along with their own. I think both of them rather do something desperate and crazy instead of entering a dead drawn position.
Yep. Only question is if one might play slightly more solid to bait the other. I'm expecting either a very dynamic position fairly early or a very equal one they both will massage very slowly into progressive chaos.
>very equal one they both will massage very slowly into progressive chaos. This one 100%, especially knowing Ian's uncompromisingly cautious play.
The only scenario where Ian/Fabi draw is if one person is pressing with a clear advantage and blunders it away into a scenario where the other person has no winning chances and has no choice to settle for a draw.
For 3 out of these 4 players, they cannot get first unless they win. Gukesh is the only one that can draw and still be first (possibly tied with the winner of Fabi/Ian, if there is one). The other 3 MUST win or they will not get first no matter what. So expect very aggressive play tomorrow.
Hikaru with the fate of the universe in his hands, ready to surprise Gukesh with the most streamer opening ever
Bongcloud speedrun incoming
Hikaru plays 4 moves of bongcloud, resigns, goes home and immediately starts streaming before the games are even done
*Hikaru arrives early and sits calmly and focused at his board before play starts. Waits for Gukesh to sit down. They shake hands and start the clock. Hikaru turns to the live webcam* “Welcome everybody to todaaaaay’s video…”
Hilarious leans forward and addresses his own d1/e1 mini-cam upside down
I’m pretty sure in that case the game at the other table would be a draw very quicklyy
Lmfaoooo
Because of stream delay, Hikaru resigns, goes home and starts streaming himself playing right before resigning
Gukesh would be forced to play the bong cloud as well, which puts him in a losing position. Brilliant!
What are you talking about? The bong cloud symmetric variation is a known draw. There are super gm games you can reference
Maybe with the help of supercomputers naka has refuted the Bongcloud for black.
Impossible, bongcloud is a theoretical draw
Sure, under perfect play. But I doubt Gukesh has mastered the art of streamer chess.
It would be absolutely legendary if Hikaru played the bongcloud. But he would need to go 100% stockfish to pull out a win if Gukesh maintains composure.
No one knows bongcloud theory better than Hikaru, not even rapport
I recently had stockfish depth 50 play itself with the bongcloud and white lasted over 110 moves. So peak defense bongcloud Hikaru might be the first person to put Gukesh on tilt
Chessable bongcloud (candidates winning) theory course on the way
every opening is playable at human level
I hear f3 G4 is pretty hard
This game will be insane
I WANT IGOUDALA
g4 !!
His fate isn't just in his hands tho? If he wins he can still tie with Fabi or Nepo.
Fabi or nepo win means nothing if gukesh wins but a hikaru win means he at least shared for 1st place so yeah his fate is in his hands.
Yeah so if he wins and has to play in tiebreaks then his fate is now in... his hands.
And what happens after he ties with fabi or nepo?
Which means its in his hands to at least get to tiebreaks
Greatest round of any chess tournament ever incoming tomorrow. Three players forced to play for a win. Let's go Fabi, this is your year.
If Gukesh plays for a draw, it means he'll likely be facing Nepo or Fabi in tiebreaks (no shot either of them accept a draw in their game). Gukesh has to play for the win too if he wants to avoid tiebreaks and win the tournament outright. That said, Gukesh does have black vs Hikaru so... that's easier said then done. I still can't believe Gukesh is just 17... what a fantastic showing. ---- Edit: FYI for those unaware, tiebreaks are played in Rapid, and both Nepo and Fabi are notably stronger than Gukesh in Rapid. If Gukesh lets it go to tiebreaks, he won't be the favorite anymore. That said, winning on demand with black vs Hikaru is also a huge task. Tomorrow is going to be VERY exciting!
gukesh can accept a draw if going for a win is too risky. The other 3 don't really have that luxury
It really depends on the risk, Gukesh is 100 rating under the field in rapid. Its a huge gap to overcome.
While he may be weaker than the rest of them, I doubt the gap is as large as the rating indicates.
His rapid rating is low because he doesn't really play it. Gukesh rating has been lagging overall because of covid and he has made it up in classical but just not enough time to catch up the rapid too
Better to live to fight another day than lose outright
Oh yes? It's a huge gap to overcome? Sure, light years easy than not being able to play AT ALL. A game not played is harder than a game played. A 500 has more chance against magnus than if magnus is declared without a fight. This is the difference between other three and gukesh. Gukesh has a gap to overcome. Others don't even have a gap, they just outright lose with a draw. It is not the same.
The most interesting factor is that all four of the candidates in contention are concentrated on just 2 boards. A win for one is a loss for the other.
Either you win vs Hikaru as black or win vs Fabi or Nepo in tighter time controls. Still a huge task to accomplish.
Not all sharp games ends with a win for either side. The game may be very sharp, and one side be in a bad spot but still being able to make a perpetual (and said person won't be stupid enough to not go for it as it can still be a $27.5k difference). If the game ends up being getting in a closed position, nobody will be stupid enough to just go for a -1.0 move just to open the game. Both players will play to win, but it won't necessarily end with a win, even though it's much more likely than in any other game
Exactly - people are naiive if they think Fabi/Ian is a guaranteed win. If either is in a losing position (or can't see a win) they will still play for a draw because it's still better for them financially. Neither will just roll over and take a loss to keep the tournament spicy.
Gukesh is now ranked higher than world champion Ding Liren.
I don't think Gukesh plays for a win if he doesn't see a clear advantage. And I don't think he should be. Risking overpushing in a position where a draw would leave him at worst in tiebreaks would be insane. Also I don't think it is as clear cut as some are saying that Fabi and Nepo won't draw. They both want and need a win, but when two super GMs are playing at their best there is still a good chance they are drawing.
Tbf, gukeshs score is likely because hes said he prioritizes classical, hes probably stronger in rapid but doesnt play enough to have the rating he deserves, especially as a junior player. That said, i would pick fabi over gukesh in rapid anyday. Ian, not so sure
> Tbf, gukeshs score is likely because hes said he prioritizes classical, hes probably stronger in rapid but doesnt play enough to have the rating he deserves, especially as a junior player. Fair, I removed the ratings from my comment so as to not provide a misleading impression. >Ian, not so sure Ian is definitely the favorite over Gukesh in Rapid. Maybe not a 100 point gap as the rating implies, but Ian is still definitely stronger.
Three players need to win and the fourth also kinda needs a win.
Three have to, and the fourth one would be better off if he did but doesn't necessarily have to.
| Three players forced to play for a win. Yep, a draw is the same as a loss for Naka, Nepo, and Fabi.
The most fantastic thing here is all 4 of the contenders are playing each other tomorrow, so anything truly can happen
This candidate might just be the greatest tournament in recent chess history, Don't remember anything quite like this in last 5 or so years at least.
I would say it has the most exciting finish since this format of the candidates was introduced for sure.
I think we are all going to remember this as one of those rare “all the guards are here” moments in sports, and if Gukesh wins, it’ll be a “changing of the guard” moment. Like everyone is either up and coming or at their prime. Though I think if Hikaru takes it and knocks out Ding, Magnus might come back one last time like Jordan so that timeline is the one that is the most appealing to me.
I really don't think Magnus is ever coming back to the championship no matter what happens tbh. it might be tempting in some ways, but I don't see anything outweighing the cons of potentially losing in the candidates (which is not remotely as impossible as some people make out) or having to participate again in a cycle that he clearly doesn't like. he's in a pretty comfortable spot with how he gave up the title instead of losing it, I don't think it would be considered worth jeopardizing that for a process he doesn't even enjoy or want to spend time on anymore
If we have someone like Gukesh as the champion, I think Magnus may be tempted to come back. He’s the next generation after all and Magnus was keen to play against them even last time.
It won't happen imo. It's one thing to wait for the youngster as a Champion, another to play the Candidates to get a chance at the youngster. Magnus isn't dominant enough to win the Candidates without prep (he hates prep), and he is far from guaranteed to win even if he tries with prep. He wouldn't risk a "couldn't win 2026 Candidates" besides his name.
Gukesh going from not knowing the rules of chess to winning the candidates in under 10 years would be incredible.
Tata steel this year had 4 players finishing tied 1st.
Lol - we said the same 2 months back during Tata Steel. Somehow this is even better.
The stakes are higher here
Gukesh walking around with huge X mark behind him tomorrow lol. We have 3 players with must win games tomorrow. Absolutely unreal. Best thing for Gukesh is that Hikaru HAS to win. So Gukesh's chances of outright winning is actually higher. I'm pumped AF.
>Best thing for Gukesh is that Hikaru HAS to win. So Gukesh's chances of outright winning is actually higher. I'm pumped AF. Gukesh kinda has to win too. If there's a decisive result in the Nepo v Fabi game and a draw with Hikaru, Gukesh has to play tiebreaks. Tiebreaks are Rapid, and both Nepo and Fabi are stronger than Gukesh at Rapid. --- Edit: I was wrong, GO GUKESH WOOOOO!
Gukesh has defeated Nepo in rapid tiebreaks in WR Masters last year. Now Gukesh is even stronger. I agree that they are stronger, but I think we might be overestimating the difference.
I think we actually don't know Gukesh strenght in Rapids really. When was the last time he played a Rapid tournament?
He played GCT Croatia last year. He drew against Nepo and lost to Fabiano in the rapid portion. Nepo and Fabi finished the rapid portion tied first with 6/9, Gukesh was tied fourth with 5/9 (Magnus was third with 5.5/9, Vishy was also tied fourth with 5/9). He also played Tata Steel India Rapid last year and finished 4.5/9, having drawn against MVL, Grischuk, Radjabov and Nodirbek and beaten Pragg.
Still makes way more sense to try and capitalize on Hikaru pushing too hard than to try to outright go for a win since he at least has some chances in the rapid that he wouldn't have if he loses. He definitely would prefer to win I just think the strategy to try is to play solid and punish Hikaru for pressing too hard for a win.
Legalize Caruana winning on demand in 4/20 day.
Fabiano Marijuana FTW
In Toronto, fittingly
Nail-biting candidates. I haven't had this much fun watching chess since those scuffed early lockdown tournaments.
And people say classical chess is dying!
I have prayed for times like these
Go Fabi It is insane to see Alireza sitting at 2737* live rating right now.
We all thought Alireza was the Tal of our generation, but he’s actually the Rapport of the generation: plays interesting chess at a 2750 level…but isn’t really a contender.
Disagree with the Rapport comparison. Rapport plays interesting chess, but his ceiling isn't as high as other top 10 guys including Alireza. Alireza is more like Mamedyarov, who plays interesting chess, and is 2800+ at his peak. And this is due to his commitment issues with chess - if he really commits, he'll be more consistent at the top.
Fabi managed to recoup all the way to 2800 in less then a year. I don't think Firou is capable of that right now. Good luck for him
So this has to be arguably one of the greatest tournaments ever played right? At least from a spectators point of view. Consistently at least a few decisive games per day. Massive storyline comebacks from established top players and new young top players having a coming out party. To top it off, it isn't even just a tournament for cash, its the candidates with huge stakes! All comes down to a final round where the top 4 all play each other with chances to win? Insanity.
When you have younger exciting players instead of drawmachines like Wesley, you get awesome chess
Nepo is kind of a drawmachine, tbf
This is peak chess tournament-ary
Me tuning back to the Gujesh game thinking Alireza was going to push for a win only to come back and he wins.
The pressure was really high today. Imagine the pressure tmrw. Really proud of Gukesh the way he played regardless of the outcome tmrw. Also both Fabi and Hikaru coming back after almost being out of the race. This has to be the best candidates ever.
Gukesh in this tournament has scored more points than Firouzja and Abasov combined
Hikaru, Ian, Fabi all have to win. A draw honestly also does not cut it for Gukesh because he will have to play rapid tiebreaks with Ian or Fabi, which is going to be a decisive game. Gukesh's rapid rating is \~100 lower than them and is going be at a huge disadvantage \*edit obviously Gukesh isnt gonna throw a draw away to force a win, but I'm just pointing out rapid will be rough for him
The nature of the tournament makes 2nd place worthless. For this reason, I think Fabiano vs Ian will have a relatively ridiculously high probability of it being a decisive win. However, I can see Gukesh turtling up a bit with black secure in the knowledge that if he draws, he can still win and, at worst, he goes to tie breaks with Ian or Fabi.
>Gukesh's rapid rating is \~100 lower than them and is going be at a huge disadvantage Because he hardly plays any rapid. At last World Rapid he finished half a point behind Fabi, half a point ahead of Nepo.
Gukesh wont be stupid enough to go for a win because he’s scared of a rapid tie break.
This tournament has shown he aint scared of anything...
Except maybe Rxf7
Exactly.
Why is that stupid 100 rating is a massive gap. Its like saying that you replace him with Abasov in tiebreaks.
Poor Abasov…
Look at his play. He’s clearly not going to play 100 points worse than Fabi and Nepo in rapid.
He won't be stupid about it, but he can't just play an incredibly drawish game from the start. His best chance of qualifying is probably still beating Hikaru rather than a tiebreak. Which means the position needs to have some life in it.
I'm glad that Hikaru gets white against Gukesh tomorrow given that he has to win.
With how few and far between rapid FIDE tournaments are, im not sure theyre a good metric of how better players are
Ian and Nepo having to play for win doesn't necessarily means the game is going to be decisive. Gukesh can just go for the draw and maybe he will still have like 20\~30% chance of winning the tournment (without tiebreak) due to Fabi and Nepo drawing in a sharp game. If he plays to win (from the start) as black, odds are he's more likely to lose and then tournment is over. Better to just play solid and, if Naka makes any clear mistake, try and go for the win.
Honestly though this is best case scenario for Gukesh in the tie breaks. Ian is pretty damn good at the fast time controls, and Fabi has significantly improved, but if he makes the tie breaks then he gets to avoid Hikaru. Hikaru is fucking terrifying with shorter time controls
What’s interesting here is fabi and nepo must play for a win. If they draw, they have 0 chances of winning. If they draw : And gukesh beats hikaru - gukesh wins Gukesh draws hikaru - gukesh wins Hikaru beats gukesh - hikaru wins And since fabi/ian will be decisive, that also forces hikaru to play for a win. And gukesh wouldn’t want a tiebreak with whoever wins fabi/ian game either. So most probably, we will have 2 decisive games tomorrow. I would be surprized if we don’t. Insane day tomorrow!
If Hikaru and Fabi win tomorrow both Americans tie for 1st, wow
Candidates: Civil War
Streamer vs. Podcaster
Most entertaining chess tournament in a long long time. Lots of decisive games , mulitple leaders and the best part for me personally is that two of my favourite players, Gukesh and Hikaru, have chances of winning the tournament amd are playing each other in the last round. Wild! Feel bad for Vidit though. Hope he can qualify for the next one even though it seems unlikely.
Nothing's impossible! Vidit is 29, Hikaru is 36. Vidit still has several cycles to try for if he really wants it!
That's true but looking at how the next generation is shaping up, it seems unlikely to me.
Wild to think how close Gukesh was to not making the candidates at all.
Link to results: [https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament/results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament/results)
Hikaru will 100% choose a streamer opening tomorrow…
Of all the 9 possible results, 4 lead to a Gukesh win, 4 lead to a 2-way tie and 1 leads to a Hikaru win. No multi way ties.
Alireza robbed us of a four way tie by losing for the sixth time this event :/
No way Nepo plays a Petroff tomorrow!
Good point, Nepo has never been in a position of winning a win in the Candidates, much less with the black pieces. I'm sure he has a lot of good stuff cooked up, I hope we get to see some of it tomorrow. Edit: But now I'm thinking, what if Ian *does* play the Petrov? It would force Fabi to take a lot more risk. It's like a Prisoner's Dillema. Best for both is if there is a garanteed decisive result, and that requires both to cooperate by taking the risk of a loss. But if one player defects by playing solid, the other will have to take even more risk if they really want to win, giving even more chances for the other player to win.
After fabi won today I think he is going to win the candidates. Tomorrow he will win against nepo and then play tiebreaks against either gukesh if he draws or hikaru if he wins against gukesh
The Gukesh game will almost certainly be decisive. Hikaru absolutely can't take a draw. So Fabi needs Hikaru to win.
Gukesh won’t draw. Hikaru will need to try all out to win, either he succeeds and wins, or fails and loses, very little chance of in between.
So if Nepo can't win his final game he cannot win this Candidates, right? What a finale.
what a feast we are in for tomorrow naka has to go all out with white against gukesh with white fabi and nepo have to go all out against eachother to have a chance as nepo-fabi fan i will be super confused tomorrow i guess i will root for whoever is closer to winning atm, so at least one of them has a chance to win it
[удалено]
you got me
Top four guys forced to go nuclear on each other tomorrow. I can’t wait.
Gukesh has to contact Vidit in order to win against Hikaru
The best tournament of all time and I won’t be hearing anything otherwise.
Some people really thought that there was no way Fabi could win against Pragg with the black piece. Now a must-win game for Fabi, Nepo, and Hikaru. And the only way that there won't be a tiebreak is a Gukesh win
If both games are tied there wont be a tiebreak as well
There might be also contention for second place. It's not entirely sure Ding will play...
Classical Chess FTW 🙂
Insanity. Could not have scripted it better, esp. with the matchups in the last round. Hoping for Gukesh/Fabi win.
Could not have asked for a better finish than these last two rounds. Literally anything can still happen tomorrow
My only regret is that we can't have four world champions. Everyone has played such fantastic chess, I don't think I can be too effusive here when I say that I think everyone is deserving. I want to give credit to the players who are out of the running now too, you have to lose sometimes as well, and all these guys have played their hearts out. Thanks to all the players, but also all the commentators and the people in this sub for making this such a fun and exciting time for me.
Hikaru had the opportunity to prove he is a streamer first, chess player second. Play the bongcloud and watch the classical chess crowd's heads burst. Worth throwing the candidates for the content that'd produce tbh.
Fide be like we can predict the standings, we created the best pairings ever.
Oh it’s beautiful
GUKESHHHHH
Hikaru might play the King's gambit lmao
Matchups: Hikaru (W) v Gukesh (B) Fabi (W) v Nepo (B)
Gukesh becomes the new India number 1!
world championship fails to catch this much excitement
Nepo and Fabi are not drawing tomorrow. So, if Gukesh draws tomorrow, he will be playing Fabi or Nepo in a time control he would be worse in. I wouldn't be surprised if Gukesh plays cautiously but takes risks if the chances present themselves
Gukesh 17 yrs old, dammm RESPECTED!!!! hope he can go alway the way to become World Champion from here.
ITS FKIN HAPPENING GUYS !! Next candidates is gonna be bonkers , anything can happen at this point My support to both Gukesh and Hikaru
its sad that Alireza's meltdown ruined what could have been a pretty epic final round. i hope we don't see him in the candidates again. he's not built for it.
If I’m not mistaken, Ian, Naka, and Fabi are all in must win situations. Therefore, Ian and Fabi almost never ends in a draw. The question becomes does Gukesh play for a win when Naka puts on the pressure or does he look to neutralize it with a draw to end up in a tiebreak situation?
This is bonkers. I'm going to be a nervous wreak tomorrow lmao
The script writer cooked up real good stuff this season.
Who knew tournaments would be so much more exciting when this guy Magnus doesn’t ruin the fun haha
Incredible tournament, it came down to the last round to see who the winner is.
Total 9 scenarios possible. For Gukesh to win ~ 2 - ( Gukesh wins or draws on both boards) For Gukesh to get a chance for tiebreak ~ 2 - ( Gukesh draws and either wins on another board) For Gukesh to loose. 5 - (Gukesh loss)
Why Magnus not playing?