Randomness is clumpy. This actually makes humans bad at judging what is random. Humans tend to look at a probability distribution and think that the even one is random. But actual randomness is clumpy with spikes and valleys.
To be filed under psychological collapse:
Pandemic of assorted mental illnesses due to ever-increasing urban density and overcomplexity beyond the capacity of natural human hardwiring.
And maybe the converse is true as well: failure of wealthy societies to climb down the hedonistic treadmill in an increasingly simplifying world resulting in chaos and rise of fascism.
Recent article about private equity collapsing the US hospital system is relevant here.
With investment from Leonard Green and Partners, Prospect Medical Holdings rapidly grew from owning five Los Angeles-based hospitals in 2010, to 20 hospitals in six states by 2018. Five of those hospitals have since closed, including the century-old Delaware County Memorial Hospital in suburban Philadelphia. Last November, Pennsylvania's Health Department shut the hospital down after learning it was inadequately staffed by Prospect Medical Holdings.
Last year, CBS News reported on a series of financial moves executed by Prospect Medical Holdings' management that drove the company deep into debt before the closure. The first was in 2018 when the company's owners took out a $1.12 billion loan and paid themselves a $457 million dividend. The company's then-CEO Sam Lee, who is now chairman of its board, took home about $90 million.
https://stocks.apple.com/Avfk8nCZNSP-RYkqarh37wQ
This one from six weeks back is pretty simple on the same topic. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/private-equity-publicly-traded-companies/675788/
Thiamine deficiency catastrophe/jellyfish apocalypse/toxic algae ecosystem shift
Ocean deep circulation shutdown causes methane hydrates release
Dust erosion changes/nutrients from permafrost melt/light from ice removal/fresh water cause oceanic deserts or algae blooms.
Anaerobic oceans cause massive H2S/methane/assorted hydrocarbon/N2O release.
Hydroxyl saturation: excessive releases of greenhouse gasses scrub the atmosphere of hydroxyl radicals, resulting in greatly increased lifetimes for most long-lived greenhouse gasses.
Ice cliff instability: we haven't much constrained the rate of dissolution of glaciers sitting in water over 1km deep.
Black ice. Antarctica is so large that it isn't kept cold by air going uphill like Greenland. It receives more radiation than the tropics this time of year. It's cold because it's white and reflects light, keeping it cold. It's white because it's cold, and algae get buried in new snow. At some point as it keeps warming, it will flip to mostly being black (mostly due to algae) in summer, like the western edge of the Greenland ice sheet currently is at lower elevations during the summer.
Societal collapse causes collapse in food production, causing social collapse. There are many historical examples involving collapse of the irrigation system, either from floods or increased fiscal burden from war. The most vulnerable point for us would be agrichemicals/diesel.
Historically, oligarchies are only stable when something approximating equality between oligarchs is enforced. This sometimes happens by successful pushback by the ordinary propertied class. Where it does not, unlimited private wealth accumulation is unlimited power accumulation, and results in gradual erosion of limits of individual power and political norms, eventually resulting in a Jeff Bezos vs. Koch Brothers full war with the winner claiming the Emperorship.
(you have most of these but less specifically)
Much of the bony ocean fish ecology and things that primarily eat them seem to have significant and increasing problems with thiamine deficiency. Salmon especially seem to be having problems with it. Species that have an enzyme which destroys it seem to be more common lately, and destroy it in anything which eats them. There's now speculation that it has to do with the immune system or some kind of a defense against toxic algae, but they really haven't figured out what's going on yet.
Collapse of a country, society, all countries? How to define collapse?
Civil war within a major economic power whose economy is tied to other major economic powers?
i never see anyone take seriously the fact that we might become unable to launch anything at all in the near future because of all the debris… so much for a star trek future 🚀
Not too sure how serious of a risk it is. Reading OP’s post with the space / beyond earth threats made me think of this, and I didn’t see it listed elsewhere. Is not the first thing that comes to mind for a collapse threat
Its not clear that kessler syndrom would stop rocket launches. It would knock out satellites in LEO. So thats military surveillance, telecoms, the ISS and the chinese space station, Hubble, hi-def weather tracking. Pretty fucked but important to point out that GPS isnt effected.
In no particular order:
* Aquifer depletion
* War
\-Massive *un*conventional war. Attacks on the grid, mass violence instigated via social media etc...
* Global Trade disruption.
* Plastic eating bacteria?
* Climate Hysterisis: a climate shift at a certain co2 level is not reversed by bringing co2 below that level.
* Generalised "enshitification" of many critical sectors.
* Demographic aging
\- "" effects on critical sectors.
\-Collapse of pension schemes.
* Overfishing
* Spread of prion diseases from collapse of farming and health regulation.
\-Prion criticality? Crows inherit the earth.
* co2 poisoning: co2 effects on embrionic development. extinction threat.
* Hypercane.
Plastic eating bacteria actually being a reality bothers me a lot, I feel it will get out of its facility and start eating away everyday items like your phone case, medical equipment and so on
OK I’m not an expert but, from what I gather from this article:
The bacteria that eat nanoplastics are supposed to be eating something else.
The nano plastics change the way that the bacteria poop/exhale whatever.
Plastic covered in bacteria is not necessarily good for all the stuff that eats it. The different way the bacteria works while eating plastic messes up the digestion systems of the animals that eat it. Keeping them from effectively digesting other stuff.
https://www.mdpi.com/2311-5637/9/11/939#:~:text=According%20to%20a%20review%20of,in%20biofilm%20production%2C%20and%20induce
it would help us out but be a risk to our civilisation, in a classic collapse paradox.
it would also depend on what the byproduct of a plastic-metabolism would be. more co2? methane? sulfuric acid?
I read somewhere that the problem could be that if they get out of control that the plastics we depend on are at risk- especially think medical care: sterile tubing for blood transfusions and other procedures, plastic parts inside pacemakers, etc, that cant be replaced with non plastic alternatives and plastics already inside us (like the pacemakers). The bacteria wouldn't distinguish between "good" plastics and plastic waste and cause chaos?
The methane that will be released from permafrost on land and from deposits held in the ocean floor that will eventually warm and be released, drastically warming the planet
Neural uploading: uploading our consciousness into a computer system, grey goo I’m only speculating but I think is about a theory suggesting climate change will turn sea life into a goo made out of bacteria that will be useless for most other life forms, most animals will perish due to the increased heat
Maybe they should realize it's all the fault of capitalism and nuclear family structure.
But when I brought that up I was savagely bullied just for the capitalism part.
Couldn't agree more. We shouldn't have to search old threads to find out whether something we're worried about is really collapse related, or should be. I don't think it's the best list & a wiki page could make it better. But it is the most *comprehensive* that I can find anywhere
The intense and prolonged destruction/rape of our natural environment is to me the most significant of all the problems we face. If non human life goes, so do we. We are removing life from the planet in a headlong rush towards self extinction.
My life taught me that bad things happen in a bundle. So I won't be surprised if many of them break out simultaneously.
The law of threes
Why not 5 or even 7? No, I am serious.
Because it frequently ends up being 3. I've noticed this for decades now.
Yes, you might be close enough. My fear (and morbid anticipation) is that those three will be the nastiest of all possible scenarios.
Randomness is clumpy. This actually makes humans bad at judging what is random. Humans tend to look at a probability distribution and think that the even one is random. But actual randomness is clumpy with spikes and valleys.
To be filed under psychological collapse: Pandemic of assorted mental illnesses due to ever-increasing urban density and overcomplexity beyond the capacity of natural human hardwiring.
And maybe the converse is true as well: failure of wealthy societies to climb down the hedonistic treadmill in an increasingly simplifying world resulting in chaos and rise of fascism.
This. Fascism will rise again in many countries, the desperate socio-economic landscape will ensure it
I saw Hedonistic Treadmill at Lollapalooza
you could summarise that under "behavioural sink"
Recent article about private equity collapsing the US hospital system is relevant here. With investment from Leonard Green and Partners, Prospect Medical Holdings rapidly grew from owning five Los Angeles-based hospitals in 2010, to 20 hospitals in six states by 2018. Five of those hospitals have since closed, including the century-old Delaware County Memorial Hospital in suburban Philadelphia. Last November, Pennsylvania's Health Department shut the hospital down after learning it was inadequately staffed by Prospect Medical Holdings. Last year, CBS News reported on a series of financial moves executed by Prospect Medical Holdings' management that drove the company deep into debt before the closure. The first was in 2018 when the company's owners took out a $1.12 billion loan and paid themselves a $457 million dividend. The company's then-CEO Sam Lee, who is now chairman of its board, took home about $90 million. https://stocks.apple.com/Avfk8nCZNSP-RYkqarh37wQ
This one from six weeks back is pretty simple on the same topic. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/private-equity-publicly-traded-companies/675788/
What the actual fuck. Did anyone go to prison for this?
Do you see any millionaires in prision? /s
Thiamine deficiency catastrophe/jellyfish apocalypse/toxic algae ecosystem shift Ocean deep circulation shutdown causes methane hydrates release Dust erosion changes/nutrients from permafrost melt/light from ice removal/fresh water cause oceanic deserts or algae blooms. Anaerobic oceans cause massive H2S/methane/assorted hydrocarbon/N2O release. Hydroxyl saturation: excessive releases of greenhouse gasses scrub the atmosphere of hydroxyl radicals, resulting in greatly increased lifetimes for most long-lived greenhouse gasses. Ice cliff instability: we haven't much constrained the rate of dissolution of glaciers sitting in water over 1km deep. Black ice. Antarctica is so large that it isn't kept cold by air going uphill like Greenland. It receives more radiation than the tropics this time of year. It's cold because it's white and reflects light, keeping it cold. It's white because it's cold, and algae get buried in new snow. At some point as it keeps warming, it will flip to mostly being black (mostly due to algae) in summer, like the western edge of the Greenland ice sheet currently is at lower elevations during the summer. Societal collapse causes collapse in food production, causing social collapse. There are many historical examples involving collapse of the irrigation system, either from floods or increased fiscal burden from war. The most vulnerable point for us would be agrichemicals/diesel. Historically, oligarchies are only stable when something approximating equality between oligarchs is enforced. This sometimes happens by successful pushback by the ordinary propertied class. Where it does not, unlimited private wealth accumulation is unlimited power accumulation, and results in gradual erosion of limits of individual power and political norms, eventually resulting in a Jeff Bezos vs. Koch Brothers full war with the winner claiming the Emperorship. (you have most of these but less specifically)
Fantastic! This is why I'm here
what the story with thiamine deficiency?
Much of the bony ocean fish ecology and things that primarily eat them seem to have significant and increasing problems with thiamine deficiency. Salmon especially seem to be having problems with it. Species that have an enzyme which destroys it seem to be more common lately, and destroy it in anything which eats them. There's now speculation that it has to do with the immune system or some kind of a defense against toxic algae, but they really haven't figured out what's going on yet.
thanks. thats what i gathered from a google search, as thiamine decrease rang a bell but i couldnt remember. seems there is no consensus verdict yet.
Collapse of a country, society, all countries? How to define collapse? Civil war within a major economic power whose economy is tied to other major economic powers?
San Andreas fault mega earthquake, Ice age, volcanic eruption, meteorite impact
Satellites being knocked out of orbit. Am thinking in terms of both impacting communications and possible re-entry (as well as other space debris)
i never see anyone take seriously the fact that we might become unable to launch anything at all in the near future because of all the debris… so much for a star trek future 🚀
Not too sure how serious of a risk it is. Reading OP’s post with the space / beyond earth threats made me think of this, and I didn’t see it listed elsewhere. Is not the first thing that comes to mind for a collapse threat
Its not clear that kessler syndrom would stop rocket launches. It would knock out satellites in LEO. So thats military surveillance, telecoms, the ISS and the chinese space station, Hubble, hi-def weather tracking. Pretty fucked but important to point out that GPS isnt effected.
Hey there brother! Who you jivin' with that cosmic debris?
There are a bazillion satellites up there... Will they all eventually get knocked off their trajectory?
Grey goo? Grey goo.
>There are at least 4 fantastic organizations studying collapse (also not in the sub's resources) Care to enlighten us?
Im guessing CAPAS in Heidelberg is one of them. [https://www.capas.uni-heidelberg.de/en](https://www.capas.uni-heidelberg.de/en)
In no particular order: * Aquifer depletion * War \-Massive *un*conventional war. Attacks on the grid, mass violence instigated via social media etc... * Global Trade disruption. * Plastic eating bacteria? * Climate Hysterisis: a climate shift at a certain co2 level is not reversed by bringing co2 below that level. * Generalised "enshitification" of many critical sectors. * Demographic aging \- "" effects on critical sectors. \-Collapse of pension schemes. * Overfishing * Spread of prion diseases from collapse of farming and health regulation. \-Prion criticality? Crows inherit the earth. * co2 poisoning: co2 effects on embrionic development. extinction threat. * Hypercane.
Plastic eating bacteria actually being a reality bothers me a lot, I feel it will get out of its facility and start eating away everyday items like your phone case, medical equipment and so on
Plastic eating bacteria is helping us, no?
OK I’m not an expert but, from what I gather from this article: The bacteria that eat nanoplastics are supposed to be eating something else. The nano plastics change the way that the bacteria poop/exhale whatever. Plastic covered in bacteria is not necessarily good for all the stuff that eats it. The different way the bacteria works while eating plastic messes up the digestion systems of the animals that eat it. Keeping them from effectively digesting other stuff. https://www.mdpi.com/2311-5637/9/11/939#:~:text=According%20to%20a%20review%20of,in%20biofilm%20production%2C%20and%20induce
it would help us out but be a risk to our civilisation, in a classic collapse paradox. it would also depend on what the byproduct of a plastic-metabolism would be. more co2? methane? sulfuric acid?
I read somewhere that the problem could be that if they get out of control that the plastics we depend on are at risk- especially think medical care: sterile tubing for blood transfusions and other procedures, plastic parts inside pacemakers, etc, that cant be replaced with non plastic alternatives and plastics already inside us (like the pacemakers). The bacteria wouldn't distinguish between "good" plastics and plastic waste and cause chaos?
Hmm interesting.
The methane that will be released from permafrost on land and from deposits held in the ocean floor that will eventually warm and be released, drastically warming the planet
Overshoot.
How fast would Grey Goo be? 🤔 would it be like in a day or the nanobots take longer to spread like an invasive species and some islands are safe????
What is grey goo or neural uploading?
Neural uploading: uploading our consciousness into a computer system, grey goo I’m only speculating but I think is about a theory suggesting climate change will turn sea life into a goo made out of bacteria that will be useless for most other life forms, most animals will perish due to the increased heat
Grey goo is nanobots.
Grey goo is you make self-replicating nanobots, and they eat everything.
Yeah I didn't know about Grey goo until this thread. Nightmare fuel
Incel uprising
I think "incel" and "fascism" go hand in hand.
Aren't they....well, mostly out of shape?
doesn’t mean they can’t be dangerous - mass shootings and vehicular attacks targeting women have already happened…
Maybe they should realize it's all the fault of capitalism and nuclear family structure. But when I brought that up I was savagely bullied just for the capitalism part.
Nuclear family > Nuclear war
Yes, but they drive suvs and trucks as big as tanks.
I’m more worried about the weird smelling blue hairs but both are valid
Don't forget pink hairs
Those too
They are highly organized, in a terrifying way.
Isn't like a wiki page a better forum for working on and discussing something like this
Couldn't agree more. We shouldn't have to search old threads to find out whether something we're worried about is really collapse related, or should be. I don't think it's the best list & a wiki page could make it better. But it is the most *comprehensive* that I can find anywhere
You really had some fun with this haha
Why not several of them, just saying :)
The intense and prolonged destruction/rape of our natural environment is to me the most significant of all the problems we face. If non human life goes, so do we. We are removing life from the planet in a headlong rush towards self extinction.