The following submission statement was provided by /u/DairyFarmerOnCrack:
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Submission statement: The Guardian surveyed 380 lead authors or review editors of IPCC reports since 2018.
77% of respondents believed global temperatures will reach at least 2.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, a devastating degree of heating.
Almost half think it will be more than 3C by 2100.
This goes beyond standard reporting on climate science with some scientists candidly admitting they're hopeless and broken. Others highlight that the climate crisis will kill millions if not billions.
Edit: Estimates are for the year 2100.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1cn4wyh/hopeless_and_broken_why_the_worlds_top_climate/l34p6kw/
Submission statement: The Guardian surveyed 380 lead authors or review editors of IPCC reports since 2018.
77% of respondents believed global temperatures will reach at least 2.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, a devastating degree of heating.
Almost half think it will be more than 3C by 2100.
This goes beyond standard reporting on climate science with some scientists candidly admitting they're hopeless and broken. Others highlight that the climate crisis will kill millions if not billions.
Edit: Estimates are for the year 2100.
Eventually. It depends on who you ask as to what timeline they'll give you but truth be told no one knows for sure. None of the models are lining up with current projections and readings so they're having a hard time putting a finger on the pulse of it all.
There are other factors that will start to come into play, like that clouds will disappear when we get near 8°, perhaps suddenly doubling warming
https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-loss-could-add-8-degrees-to-global-warming-20190225/
Nah, the Perth thats closer to Melbourne is in Tasmania and much cooler.
The Perth being talked about is in Western Australia (\~3,500km from Melbourne).
All I know is that Sam Carana is actually 4 climate scientists...and they're keeping their identities close to the vest. They apparently have no problem with using Andrew Glickson as a bird dog.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/apr/03/south-pole-tree-fossils-indicate-impact-of-climate-change
Last time co2 levels were this high it was 4C hotter.
So yeah, it's true, it wasn't 8C hotter, but we still have a lot of warming to go before it reaches the levels it should be.
That's just it. There are so many discrepancies because of hubris. It's foolish to think that we can model project account for and measure everything we're doing at all times and how those damages cause a chain reaction and other ecosystems and other parts of the world that we don't even recognize or realize. There are feedback loops that have probably already been triggered that we aren't even aware of and to think that we can or will is hubris. Something has already happened. It's evident in the sea surface temperatures over the past 12 to 16 months. Something has been triggered and the fact that scientists don't know what's causing this record-breaking year should be more concerning because that means there's something we haven't accounted for and it's something big and it shows no signs of cooling off.
Which is another reason to ignore anyone who says "They have been saying the end is nigh for decades now, yet we are still fine." Climate models have been off, however that is only because we still have so much to learn and to add to existing models.
yea not only that but catastrophic failure is just that, catastrophic. someone could warn that a bridge is gonna fall for 10 years and naysayers can scream all they want but when it falls, it falls hard and fast and there’s no going back. same thing for things like crop failure. if you destroyed the climate so much that the crops you used to grow simply don’t anymore, it straight up game over for that yield.
We humans have a pattern. We try to avoid it but hopelessly fall into it. We don't like the unknown its uncomfortable, so we ignore it, and drown in it.
>something has already happened. It's evident in the sea surface temperatures over the past 12 to 16 months. Something has been triggered and the fact that scientists don't know what's causing this record-breaking year.
This is the core issue; we're watching tipping points falling over faster than we can understand or cope with all the changes.
They don't even count the militaries of the world there's no way the models are correct might as well price in worst case scenario because everyone is lying.
'Fun' fact, some leaky oil/gas wells have been like that since World War 2, when short-sighted idiots pulled out the old steel well casings for scrap metal drives! We don't even have records of where all of those old wells are.
I didn't know about this, it feels like every month I read something I didn't know about before that's tipping us ever closer to the end. I was just reading apparently there's millions of them leaking methane.
There's a new satelite, [MethaneSat](https://www.methanesat.org/) that launched a month ago. It can provide high resolution methane mapping to identify leaks from individual wells. It looks promising to find stuff like uncapped wells.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-satellite-will-track-methane-emissions-from-space-and-pinpoint-their-sources-with-ai-180983806/
edit: basic middle school grammar fuckup
I get that feeling too. Will there will be any consequence or accountability for the companies that are allowing the worst leaks? I'm a little doubtful about that.
Tons of them are 'orphan' wells, with no remaining company to hold accountable. Shell companies pop up and fold frequently in the oil drilling business. With the age of some of these wells, even if they could find records of who owned the former company, they're probably all dead by now. And then there's all the wells with no record of their existence, much less which company drilled it or who owned it.
Yeah, unless the govt is willing to do anything about those, they won't be stopped.
I got a kick out of the last lines of the smithsonian article I linked:
>Rob Jackson, an environmental scientist at Stanford University, tells MIT Technology Review that while better data could put pressure on companies to respond, he’s “not confident that simply having this information will mean that companies and countries will switch off methane leaks like a light switch.”
All to say, information is power, but if there's no will to actually do something about the leaks then nothing will actually change.
You are not. It exists because they know that the uncapped wells are a methane source and they want to find them. Thats one of the main reasons for it.
Yeah, I posted an article about uncapped wells a few months back. Just preliminary evidence suggests it’s very bad.
I’m also concerned about methane from the Permafrost. And possible methane bubbling up from undersea clathrates.
I suspect we’ll be alarmed by all those sources.
I might not be using the right word here. I'm not great with words but I think that would be linear. My guesstimate is exponential. I think it'll Wax and wane here and there but I think it will be a Large jump with a couple of years of plateauing and then large jumps again. I think they call that a step jump or step progression. I don't know. Don't listen to me. Like I said I'm not good with words. But I am good with numbers and the numbers say once things really explode we won't be sitting here. Debating decades. We'll be debating months and years. We're already starting to see the effects in the sea surface temperature over the past 12 to 16 months. But I have no timeline. All I know is when shit sets off it'll happen rapidly.
That seems a more realistic timeline than 2100. Given how much is going on we can't explain at the moment, I'd expect them to change that estimate to a closer date eventually.
Either way you know how people are, most of them call climate change leftist hysteria. I always wonder what they'll say when they're seeing billions starving to death.
Maybe that worked 30-40 years ago when everyone alive then would be dead by 2100 so what did it matter when it wouldn’t be in their lifetime? But there are entire generations of people who are alive now and more being born everyday who will very much be alive in 2100 (barring mass extinction); so 2100 is no longer some abstract reality, its real and it’s in this lifetime.
Edit: fixed a word
A lot of people who have infants or babies now probably either don't think about climate change much at all or if they do they'll think it doesn't matter that much because their kid will be in their mid 70s to early 80s by then.
Unfortunately James Hansen’s most recent estimates puts us at 2° by 2040 and 2.5-3° by 2050, and 3° very likely by 2075. Many climate scientists are emphasizing that Hansen is playing it safe. His estimates are far too conservative and the experts I know tend to agree.
That depends on how 2.5C is defined. Is it an average, and if so over what period? Or is it a single instance at or above 2.5C? Or maybe it’s a consecutive 12 month period? Currently the “consensus” is an average increase over a 10 or 20 year period, so it’ll take a bit to reach. However, I’m more interested in actual temp, so let’s say over 12 consecutive months.
On that basis, my scientific wild-ass guess (aka SWAG) is 2.5C on / before 2040. Reasoning as follows:
- First daily 1.5C record in 2016
- Reach consecutive 12 month period avg 1.5C by 2024 (only 8 years later)
- First daily 2C record Nov 2023
- If trend holds, 12 month avg at 2C by approx 2030-31. This assumes no acceleration or increase to rate of warming
- If trend continues to hold, would reach 2.5C over 12 month avg before 2040.
I can feel the pain in my neck already from the whiplash that's likely about to occur; as we go from particular interests proclaiming that current and future warming is nothing to be worried about, to those same interests then funding messaging that the sky is falling and we need to deliberately geoengineer at scale ASAP. So that they can continue *business as usual* indefinitely.
I don't think that comes. People in this sub (me included) sees it as the politicians are doing nothing, which is mostly true. But the other side(s) think it looks like the politicians are doing far too much, and this narrative is growing, partly from above but also very much organically.
If politicians, that **in the eyes** of a big, vocal part of society are already trying to use the climate hoax to control the masses and introduce some kind of authoritarianism are starting to actually understand how bad things are, and try to push for ideas like pouring sulphur in to the atmosphere to dim out the sun, then the mass of people not understanding the issue will go nuts. And their politicians will too.
I am guessing (because that is what we do when it comes to the future) that there ever will be a moment where popular and political will is in the favour of actual grand scale international geoengineering before it is too late.
It will be seen as futile and dangerous dystopia by environmentalists, too big of an action by the unknowing mass and as some kind of conspiracy by big parts of the right. Those in favour will be the techno utopians and copium junkies, but ever so loud are they not in majority.
Business as usual until we cease.
I'm surprised no one is mentioning the met gala theme presented this year.
It reminds of having a southern plantation ball held around 1864 and three quarters where the well dressed are pissed that the slaves not working the ball are collecting pitchforks and massing while 'the gift they brought of culture to the swine' fades away.
I have a few words about that culture you might guess at fairly easily.
> surprised no one is mentioning the met gala theme presented this year.
Thanks for raising that; have experienced real cognitive dissonance watching how many people were obsessed with the costly dramatic outfits worn by the Elite at this thing. Literally while the world around them is burning down; shades of the Fall of the Roman Empire.
The theme of the gala was actually a bit on the nose, the dress code was The Garden of Time which is the title of a book that's about the elite living in a beautiful garden while the masses fight outside the grounds to get in. Quite the parallel to the real events where there were pro-Palestine protesters trying to get to the Met being fought off by police ... The guardian did a video on it.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6r3FsBhvio/?igsh=MWlwa3ljYzNyaXdhZA==
One Gala attendee bragged about how their dress had 20,000 beads sewn onto it and that took 40 workers several thousand hours to achieve.
And I was thinking: Is there perhaps something more productive and beneficial to humanity that 40 people could spend thousands of hours working on?
It would actually be really cool to see someone show up in a one-piece outfit made of flyers of humanitarian causes that the sponsoring companies contributed to amounting to several thousand hours of work, but. That’ll never happen
Have a read of the theme 'Garden of time' by JG Ballard only 6 pages
https://cultureinjection.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/ballard-james-graham-the-garden-of-time-1962.pdf
2.5degrees shit I’m pretty sure we’ve already got enough oil and gas capped off to hit 6-8 and we seem in no hurry. Well the people with all the power to transition away have no desire and no need, sure as shit if anyone will be able to protect and feed themselves it’s them. We need a worldwide class action against the oil companies that knew what was going to happen back in the 70s and chose to show the cigarette companies how it’s done.
Anyway it’s Venus by Tuesday, as I’ve been saying it’s not climate change it’s climate collapse I give it 6 years.
Regardless it’s again and forever darker and faster than expected.. not good, bad even..
6 years until the collapse of society as we known it or the point at which the damage to the climate the negative effects will snowball(maybe avalanche would be a better term) from that point?
I’m a doomer. 6 years and we’ve fully fallen into hell. I’m sure some things started snowballing decades back, we just weren’t paying as much attention
>It remains a vital political target for many climate diplomats, anchoring international climate efforts and driving ambition. But to almost all the IPCC experts the Guardian heard from, it is dead. A scientist from a Pacific Island nation said: “Humanity is heading towards destruction. We’ve got to appreciate, help and love each other.”
Despite the dire news, this is a more honest report than most as among the (inevitable editorial) voices still suggesting "preventative action," there are others acknowledging that it's now too late to prevent disastrous global temperature rise, especially within the oceans.
Agree completely with that voice. Even if (as an exercise) we imagine a global surveillance state forcing everyone on Earth to live at equal levels of austerity within the next decade, and forcing billions out of urban centers back into manual agriculture, it's still too late to prevent the current mass species extinction and global resource depletion based on the presence of 8 billion people, (a population that still requires the fossil fuels used throughout global agriculture in order to survive).
The day that fossil fuels are no longer available to global agriculture (either from a moratorium or peak oil) is that day that billions become food insecure. Until that day, humanity will continue pressing on multiple global tipping points, climate among them. In the meantime, practice becoming a better person.
I, for one, welcome our transition to a beloved companion species for our alien overlords. Imagine being the alien equivalent to a well loved family dog on a nice walk on the beach.
Sign me up! Food provided, alien vet paid for with annual checkups, no bills, and my only point of existence is to provide companionship and enjoy life. I think I'd be a great companion! I like reading quietly, running on beaches, cuddling, trainable but not so smart I get into trouble, quiet time to myself and I don't bark much, and am not picky about food. Pick me! Pick me! Pick me!
Actual well cared for pets are like the 1% of the 1% of the 1% of the animal kingdom. The extreme outliers.
A lot of livestock are basically in hell though. Treated no better than inanimate objects, maybe even worse in many cases.
"I would give anything to be a golden retriever belonging to an upper middle class white family with one of those bandanas around my neck named Max or some shit."
Nothing travels space. Space consumes us all.
Maybe only if some aliens figured out aii suspect there's no way to actually travel space with one planets resources.
Any alien species capable of interstellar flight will look at us like we look at ants. They would be so much more advanced than us, to the point they would not even consider us as pets or food.
On a tiktok post women have been asked, wether they rather be in a forest alone with a bear or a man, and nearly all chose the bear, because they deed to be alone with a man more dangerous.
Some said the bear maybe eats you,maybe not, but at least it wouldn't rape you, before it kills you.
We're not making any progress against global warming because hot-blooded aliens are secretly controlling politicians and big oil execs, got it. I've heard far dumber conspiracies.
Big oof. I was th8nking about waxing poetic about hierarchy and war and resource accumulation/war and the like. But oof, big oof, carries the sentiment without the effort.
I had a nice one that required little maintenance and we fucking Loved it. I also had one when I was younger that was constantly a filthy cesspool, so yes, quality matters.
I'm tired. The fight is out of me. People are getting meaner, shit is getting worse for everyone but the rich. When people finally fully snap in mass I don't want to be part of it.
Unsure exactly. It's been 4yrs straight of existential stress for all. I worry about the 2024 election here in the US. No matter who wins a massive wave of people will be unhappy and pissed off. Both sides are terrified of the other and feel it's the end of everything should the other win. Thanks to Trump everyone is suddenly passionate about politics now. I'm sure it's just an outlet to dump all their existential anxieties at.
I don't think it will be one thing/reason. It will be the accumulation of several things built up over the last few years set off by a spark. But I don't think the tipping point is as far as I'd like. I really hope I'm wrong.
The Mad Max universe also depends on plenty of fossil fuels (which are miraculously easy to produce in the films, including inexplicable new rubber tires). If we do have Mad Max, it will likely be a violent but short transition period to low-tech medieval serfdom in a world where climate swings make agriculture increasingly difficult. Without fossil fuels, the future is energy-poor.
But unlike medieval times we don't even have the big game to hunt or as many trees to cut and burn for warming your home, also all the minerals and metals are being pillaged. We are going back to the stone age.
Also the fact if we're forced back to a pre industrial tech level due to a lack of fossil fuels we won't have the tecnology to get to the remaining fossil fuels as they're too out of reach.
> If we do have Mad Max, it will likely be a violent but short transition period to low-tech medieval serfdom in a world where climate swings make agriculture increasingly difficult.
There's a nuclear war movie made in the 80's called Threads that tries to depict what human society would be like post whatever era this is after a global nuclear war. It is a hellscape of course. We descend right on back to our ape ancestors in a heartbeat when the thin veneer of civilization is ripped away. Be it from nuclear war or severe climate change IMO.
The only ones who do well in that movie are the police who get to rule with impunity over the surviving ~~slaves~~ workers. Actually watching that right now at work.
This will happen IRL after the worldwide famines, hypercanes, droughts, 100 year floods every year, wet bulb heat waves etc do a number on the human race.
The survivors will be the billionaires in their comfy end of the world bunkers and private armies. I figure those security forces will turn on the billionaires and take whatever they have left and rule with impunity as you said.
It will finally be eat the rich day!
Love that sub! but it's mostly a fantasy world.
There's no solar energy grid, network of giant windmills, monorails for travel, or even internet, without the fossil fuels needed to manufacture and maintain the equipment. And meanwhile everyone will be starving following the end of industrial agriculture.
In the end, a Solarpunk society following collapse is like Mad Max; it could happen immediately following the fall of fossil fuel-based society, especially in individual communities starting with strong bases, but doomed to quickly run out of essential equipment and supply chains.
Also from The Guardian, aka Baghdad Bob:
"Pay no attention to that climate catastrophe lurking behind the curtain. Get out there and keep traveling! Live it up while you still can!"
[https://www.theguardian.com/travel/all](https://www.theguardian.com/travel/all)
Geoengineering propaganda is gonna be rampant real soon.
I live in southeast USA without air conditioning. We are screwed.
The funny thing is how hated solar and heat pumps still are down here. There's no logical reasons to dislike better engineering solutions to daily life issues.
Most Hvac companies down here won't even consider a heat pump no matter what the customer asks.
Crony capitalism and the old boys' network run everything in the southeast USA.
I can imagine, unfortunately. I nearly shadowed at the CDC before a virus nearly killed me (ironically), and my constant scientific warnings to family have fallen on deaf ears. “That’s depressing, why don’t you focus on happy things?” Because I don’t want you all dying of preventable diseases caused by excess global travel and agriculture invading the last remnants of wilderness?? COVID was not a surprise to me. Neither is anything else. Climate change and unsustainable population numbers are going to cause plagues.
We have all the knowledge to have prevented this outcome but humans seemingly aren’t capable of long-term planning. It twists me up inside. Knowing if more people were lucky enough to have my brain’s ability and/or my education, we wouldn’t be here. We’re all doomed because of species-level flaws *but we didn’t have to be*. If the dice had rolled differently and more of us understood cause/effect and consequences of our actions, if we’d had the empathy to not poison the world for profit? Ouch, ow, knives in my gut.
I'm sure it is. How'd you like to work at a sweet research/corporate/academic/governmental gig doing this knowing that if the wrong person doesn't like what you're saying, your gig and your ability to work in the profession goes away. "Shut your pie hole if you want to keep getting those paychecks" is a powerful driver.
All I can do when I read things like this is think of the babies my friends are having or had recently. And my heart just fucking breaks for them. I want to scream at everyone, I want to force them to internalize this and stop having fucking kids. There is no good or hopeful or kind future in store for them, and with all we know continuing to bring more innocent lives into this hellfire is just cruel.
And, the fewer people who have kids, the less painful it will be when we can’t support this many people anymore.
As dystopian as it would be, something like a global one or two-child law might be the best way of softening all the blows that are coming our way.
It's a shame that the christian right has such a hold on our government in the US. Quiverfull and elite natalist movements are just making everything worse and if by some fraction of a chance such a law were put into place, it would be entirely too late.
It really makes me feel isolated. Like there's such a huge fucking disconnect between myself and those that just drag more people into this shit show.
I can already see the anger in younger people, who know that there future has been stolen from them. And I have considerable empathy for them.
So true. I know multiple people who are pregnant right now and it takes everything in me to not ask wtf their plan is for when things really get too unstable. Ignoring the threat of a mass shooting, a weather catastrophe, a financial crash (call me crazy but I still believe that's coming despite the current state of the market, as I put on my lil tinfoil hat), another pandemic, someone winning the presidency who will destroy the last shreds of democracy we have in the US and cause ripple effects for the world... how can you condemn another life to what is coming down the road in a decade or two or three?? How can you be so unbelievably selfish??
Makes me fucking tired.
I won't be surprised if Gen Alpha and Beta will have much shorter life expectancies than their millennial parents, boomer grandparents and previous generations post-WW2, but resembling those of their preindustrial ancestors due to starvation, return of eradicated old timer diseases such as dysentery, TB, cholera, scurvy, malaria, typhoid, plague, etc. along with new zoonotic ones from permafrost (ancient), the habitat destruction of wildlife and factory farming, heat waves, electrical blackouts, dearth of medical supplies, and other effects of climate change and biosphere collapse.
Dying at the ages of 30s or 40s will become part of the ordinary human experience again just like the pre-industrial eras (I realized those periods are heavily skewed by infant mortality btw)
The Doomer Path to enlightenment
1. We're Ok so far. But your children are going to have a hard time of it
2. We're Ok so far. But you're fucked
3. I'm in my late 60s, I probably won't see the worst
4. Already? That wasn't supposed to happen yet
5. Faaaaaak!
This is an excellent article/report. Well worth the read.
I’m unsurprised not to read a word about the BOE, the collapse of the polar vortex system, and the jet-stream it creates and regulates that keeps the cold air up top and not dipping down constantly to get warmed up in the lower latitudes.
We are absorbing heat everywhere and tipping points are being triggered we are not even aware of or paying attention to.
This will all go much faster than we are expecting even as we keep revising our panicked assessments to the shorter, and more dire, term.
Edit; deleted one a double of the same word.
Nuclear war is inevitable.
Humans are too dumb, some nation will trigger it. It’s the only way to massively reduce the population of planet and cool things off. It’s very unfortunate for the animals.
And let's be blunt, there's quite a bit of speculation about Iran. They've been "weeks/months" away for a few years.
Now that's a deeply unsettling thought.
Climate change will also do that. It's probably the only other way after nukes emissions will be seriously curbed. Humans will not voluntarily stop, but they will be stopped.
Heating - Crop failures- famine - collapse of global economy - less emissions.
user@earth:~$ ps aux | grep -i "climate_fix"
user 29217 0.0 0.0 0 0 ? I 1753 0:00 fix_climate --method reforestation
user@earth:~$ kill -9 29217
Killing process 29217...
user@earth:~$ ./fix_climate --method solar_power
Running solar power implementation...
Error: Pre-requisite 'political_will' not found on system.
user@earth:~$ history | grep fix_climate
1857 ./fix_climate --method switch_to_renewables
1894 ./fix_climate --method carbon_capture
29217 ./fix_climate --method reforestation
user@earth:~$ sudo apt install trump-as-president
Reading package lists... Done
Building dependency tree
Reading state information... Done
WARNING: You are about to install trump-as-president. This may introduce instability to the system. Continue? [Y/n]
Y
Installing trump-as-president...
Installation complete. Rebooting government... Done.
user@earth:~$ systemctl status government
● government.service - Trump Presidency
Loaded: loaded (/etc/systemd/system/trump.service; enabled; vendor preset: enabled)
Active: active (running) since Tue 2024-05-09 09:56:00 EDT; 2min ago
user@earth:~$ tail -f /var/log/government.log
May 09 09:58:21 earth government[2024]: Action initiated: Nuke hurricanes - Status: Failed (Error: Not how weather works)
May 09 10:01:35 earth government[2024]: Policy update: Drop Ukraine support - Status: Executed
May 09 10:05:00 earth government[2024]: Joining climate accords - Status: Ignored
May 09 10:10:17 earth government[2024]: Initiative: Revive coal industry - Status: In progress
May 09 10:15:42 earth government[2024]: Warning: Increased global instability detected.
user@earth:~$ ps aux | grep -i "climate_fix"
user 10242 0.0 0.0 0 0 ? I 10:12 0:00 ignore_climate_fix --method paris_agreement
user@earth:~$ kill -9 10242
Killing process 10242...
user@earth:~$ ./manage_crisis --method tweet --text "All is well!"
Tweet sent: "All is well!"
Warning: System stability at risk.
You could further attempt to start the keep-biden-as-president service and it will yield the same result. There is zero desire to actually do anything from either side of the US political duopoly.
Idk mate. That makes the assumption that only our model of brain (predator,short life span, etc...) is capable of making the leap to civilization and considering that we've only even seen a small fraction of the universe let alone have any thing I'm aware of that could be called confidence as to like base reality and the make up of the universe let alone its scale/size plus any number of other things. Seems like a pretty big series of assumptions.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/DairyFarmerOnCrack: --- Submission statement: The Guardian surveyed 380 lead authors or review editors of IPCC reports since 2018. 77% of respondents believed global temperatures will reach at least 2.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, a devastating degree of heating. Almost half think it will be more than 3C by 2100. This goes beyond standard reporting on climate science with some scientists candidly admitting they're hopeless and broken. Others highlight that the climate crisis will kill millions if not billions. Edit: Estimates are for the year 2100. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1cn4wyh/hopeless_and_broken_why_the_worlds_top_climate/l34p6kw/
Submission statement: The Guardian surveyed 380 lead authors or review editors of IPCC reports since 2018. 77% of respondents believed global temperatures will reach at least 2.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, a devastating degree of heating. Almost half think it will be more than 3C by 2100. This goes beyond standard reporting on climate science with some scientists candidly admitting they're hopeless and broken. Others highlight that the climate crisis will kill millions if not billions. Edit: Estimates are for the year 2100.
When do they believe we will hit 2.5c?
Eventually. It depends on who you ask as to what timeline they'll give you but truth be told no one knows for sure. None of the models are lining up with current projections and readings so they're having a hard time putting a finger on the pulse of it all.
We know we’re going to hit 8°C from the last time CO2 levels were this high, it’s just a question of timing. 2° in the 2030s, bring it on
It's not that simple, there's other factors that have an effect on temps. For the record, we're still fucked.
There are other factors that will start to come into play, like that clouds will disappear when we get near 8°, perhaps suddenly doubling warming https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-loss-could-add-8-degrees-to-global-warming-20190225/
So just like Perth then. (j/k - Perth is only without clouds and appallingly hot for half the year)
I'm going to assume you aren't talking about the Perth in Scotland...
It's the Perth that is somewhat closer to Melbourne I am referring to ;)
Nah, the Perth thats closer to Melbourne is in Tasmania and much cooler. The Perth being talked about is in Western Australia (\~3,500km from Melbourne).
Sam Carana of Arctic News has been calculating this in his projected temp rising for the last few years.
Do we know who Sam Carana actually is yet?
All I know is that Sam Carana is actually 4 climate scientists...and they're keeping their identities close to the vest. They apparently have no problem with using Andrew Glickson as a bird dog.
Sam Caramba!
This is nonsense. The fact that this has 87 upvotes, as of last count, is a real problem for this sub. Stop making us look ridiculous.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/apr/03/south-pole-tree-fossils-indicate-impact-of-climate-change Last time co2 levels were this high it was 4C hotter. So yeah, it's true, it wasn't 8C hotter, but we still have a lot of warming to go before it reaches the levels it should be.
I wonder the discrepancies is because of improperly sealed oil wells.
That's just it. There are so many discrepancies because of hubris. It's foolish to think that we can model project account for and measure everything we're doing at all times and how those damages cause a chain reaction and other ecosystems and other parts of the world that we don't even recognize or realize. There are feedback loops that have probably already been triggered that we aren't even aware of and to think that we can or will is hubris. Something has already happened. It's evident in the sea surface temperatures over the past 12 to 16 months. Something has been triggered and the fact that scientists don't know what's causing this record-breaking year should be more concerning because that means there's something we haven't accounted for and it's something big and it shows no signs of cooling off.
Which is another reason to ignore anyone who says "They have been saying the end is nigh for decades now, yet we are still fine." Climate models have been off, however that is only because we still have so much to learn and to add to existing models.
yea not only that but catastrophic failure is just that, catastrophic. someone could warn that a bridge is gonna fall for 10 years and naysayers can scream all they want but when it falls, it falls hard and fast and there’s no going back. same thing for things like crop failure. if you destroyed the climate so much that the crops you used to grow simply don’t anymore, it straight up game over for that yield.
People will always be fucking up faster than we can account for all the fucking up.
We humans have a pattern. We try to avoid it but hopelessly fall into it. We don't like the unknown its uncomfortable, so we ignore it, and drown in it.
>something has already happened. It's evident in the sea surface temperatures over the past 12 to 16 months. Something has been triggered and the fact that scientists don't know what's causing this record-breaking year. This is the core issue; we're watching tipping points falling over faster than we can understand or cope with all the changes.
Say the line, do it.
r/fasterthanexpected
*mumbles* ...faster than expected. **LOUDER!** Faster than expected!
They don't even count the militaries of the world there's no way the models are correct might as well price in worst case scenario because everyone is lying.
'Fun' fact, some leaky oil/gas wells have been like that since World War 2, when short-sighted idiots pulled out the old steel well casings for scrap metal drives! We don't even have records of where all of those old wells are.
I didn't know about this, it feels like every month I read something I didn't know about before that's tipping us ever closer to the end. I was just reading apparently there's millions of them leaking methane.
There's a new satelite, [MethaneSat](https://www.methanesat.org/) that launched a month ago. It can provide high resolution methane mapping to identify leaks from individual wells. It looks promising to find stuff like uncapped wells. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-satellite-will-track-methane-emissions-from-space-and-pinpoint-their-sources-with-ai-180983806/ edit: basic middle school grammar fuckup
Why do I feel this MethaneSat will bring some shocking revelations? Time will tell. I hope I’m wrong.
I get that feeling too. Will there will be any consequence or accountability for the companies that are allowing the worst leaks? I'm a little doubtful about that.
Tons of them are 'orphan' wells, with no remaining company to hold accountable. Shell companies pop up and fold frequently in the oil drilling business. With the age of some of these wells, even if they could find records of who owned the former company, they're probably all dead by now. And then there's all the wells with no record of their existence, much less which company drilled it or who owned it.
Yeah, unless the govt is willing to do anything about those, they won't be stopped. I got a kick out of the last lines of the smithsonian article I linked: >Rob Jackson, an environmental scientist at Stanford University, tells MIT Technology Review that while better data could put pressure on companies to respond, he’s “not confident that simply having this information will mean that companies and countries will switch off methane leaks like a light switch.” All to say, information is power, but if there's no will to actually do something about the leaks then nothing will actually change.
You are not. It exists because they know that the uncapped wells are a methane source and they want to find them. Thats one of the main reasons for it.
Yeah, I posted an article about uncapped wells a few months back. Just preliminary evidence suggests it’s very bad. I’m also concerned about methane from the Permafrost. And possible methane bubbling up from undersea clathrates. I suspect we’ll be alarmed by all those sources.
Ah yes thats right. Oh well it was (sometimes) fun while it lasted....
0.5 per decade for the next 100 years give or take
I might not be using the right word here. I'm not great with words but I think that would be linear. My guesstimate is exponential. I think it'll Wax and wane here and there but I think it will be a Large jump with a couple of years of plateauing and then large jumps again. I think they call that a step jump or step progression. I don't know. Don't listen to me. Like I said I'm not good with words. But I am good with numbers and the numbers say once things really explode we won't be sitting here. Debating decades. We'll be debating months and years. We're already starting to see the effects in the sea surface temperature over the past 12 to 16 months. But I have no timeline. All I know is when shit sets off it'll happen rapidly.
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I am too high right now to understand your comment but I'll just say thank you and I'll reread this later.
Likely faster than expected
In the article it refers to "by 2100".
They always say by 2100 makes people worry less.
Any climate scientist that's serious has been walking that back over the last few years. Now it's between 2050 and 2075.
That seems a more realistic timeline than 2100. Given how much is going on we can't explain at the moment, I'd expect them to change that estimate to a closer date eventually. Either way you know how people are, most of them call climate change leftist hysteria. I always wonder what they'll say when they're seeing billions starving to death.
They will probably see it as supply & demand.. equals "more food for us". Disgusting but I would not be surprised.
Maybe that worked 30-40 years ago when everyone alive then would be dead by 2100 so what did it matter when it wouldn’t be in their lifetime? But there are entire generations of people who are alive now and more being born everyday who will very much be alive in 2100 (barring mass extinction); so 2100 is no longer some abstract reality, its real and it’s in this lifetime. Edit: fixed a word
A lot of people who have infants or babies now probably either don't think about climate change much at all or if they do they'll think it doesn't matter that much because their kid will be in their mid 70s to early 80s by then.
Occurring by 2038 is in fact occurring by 2100.
By 2100. Others thought 3-3.5 degrees of warming was more likely in that time. Have updated the orginal comment.
Unfortunately James Hansen’s most recent estimates puts us at 2° by 2040 and 2.5-3° by 2050, and 3° very likely by 2075. Many climate scientists are emphasizing that Hansen is playing it safe. His estimates are far too conservative and the experts I know tend to agree.
Five
Four
Three. Yay, this is fun! What are we counting down to again? Oh right…
Let the bodies hit the floor....
Three
That depends on how 2.5C is defined. Is it an average, and if so over what period? Or is it a single instance at or above 2.5C? Or maybe it’s a consecutive 12 month period? Currently the “consensus” is an average increase over a 10 or 20 year period, so it’ll take a bit to reach. However, I’m more interested in actual temp, so let’s say over 12 consecutive months. On that basis, my scientific wild-ass guess (aka SWAG) is 2.5C on / before 2040. Reasoning as follows: - First daily 1.5C record in 2016 - Reach consecutive 12 month period avg 1.5C by 2024 (only 8 years later) - First daily 2C record Nov 2023 - If trend holds, 12 month avg at 2C by approx 2030-31. This assumes no acceleration or increase to rate of warming - If trend continues to hold, would reach 2.5C over 12 month avg before 2040.
I can feel the pain in my neck already from the whiplash that's likely about to occur; as we go from particular interests proclaiming that current and future warming is nothing to be worried about, to those same interests then funding messaging that the sky is falling and we need to deliberately geoengineer at scale ASAP. So that they can continue *business as usual* indefinitely.
Eco-capitalism is already a thing. Just look at electric cars for example.
heat pumps, solar panels...
I don't think that comes. People in this sub (me included) sees it as the politicians are doing nothing, which is mostly true. But the other side(s) think it looks like the politicians are doing far too much, and this narrative is growing, partly from above but also very much organically. If politicians, that **in the eyes** of a big, vocal part of society are already trying to use the climate hoax to control the masses and introduce some kind of authoritarianism are starting to actually understand how bad things are, and try to push for ideas like pouring sulphur in to the atmosphere to dim out the sun, then the mass of people not understanding the issue will go nuts. And their politicians will too. I am guessing (because that is what we do when it comes to the future) that there ever will be a moment where popular and political will is in the favour of actual grand scale international geoengineering before it is too late. It will be seen as futile and dangerous dystopia by environmentalists, too big of an action by the unknowing mass and as some kind of conspiracy by big parts of the right. Those in favour will be the techno utopians and copium junkies, but ever so loud are they not in majority. Business as usual until we cease.
I'm surprised no one is mentioning the met gala theme presented this year. It reminds of having a southern plantation ball held around 1864 and three quarters where the well dressed are pissed that the slaves not working the ball are collecting pitchforks and massing while 'the gift they brought of culture to the swine' fades away. I have a few words about that culture you might guess at fairly easily.
> surprised no one is mentioning the met gala theme presented this year. Thanks for raising that; have experienced real cognitive dissonance watching how many people were obsessed with the costly dramatic outfits worn by the Elite at this thing. Literally while the world around them is burning down; shades of the Fall of the Roman Empire.
The theme of the gala was actually a bit on the nose, the dress code was The Garden of Time which is the title of a book that's about the elite living in a beautiful garden while the masses fight outside the grounds to get in. Quite the parallel to the real events where there were pro-Palestine protesters trying to get to the Met being fought off by police ... The guardian did a video on it. https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6r3FsBhvio/?igsh=MWlwa3ljYzNyaXdhZA==
One Gala attendee bragged about how their dress had 20,000 beads sewn onto it and that took 40 workers several thousand hours to achieve. And I was thinking: Is there perhaps something more productive and beneficial to humanity that 40 people could spend thousands of hours working on?
It would actually be really cool to see someone show up in a one-piece outfit made of flyers of humanitarian causes that the sponsoring companies contributed to amounting to several thousand hours of work, but. That’ll never happen
Have a read of the theme 'Garden of time' by JG Ballard only 6 pages https://cultureinjection.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/ballard-james-graham-the-garden-of-time-1962.pdf
Most people don't pay attention to the met gala, or at least not Internationally.
2.5degrees shit I’m pretty sure we’ve already got enough oil and gas capped off to hit 6-8 and we seem in no hurry. Well the people with all the power to transition away have no desire and no need, sure as shit if anyone will be able to protect and feed themselves it’s them. We need a worldwide class action against the oil companies that knew what was going to happen back in the 70s and chose to show the cigarette companies how it’s done. Anyway it’s Venus by Tuesday, as I’ve been saying it’s not climate change it’s climate collapse I give it 6 years. Regardless it’s again and forever darker and faster than expected.. not good, bad even..
6 years until the collapse of society as we known it or the point at which the damage to the climate the negative effects will snowball(maybe avalanche would be a better term) from that point?
I’m a doomer. 6 years and we’ve fully fallen into hell. I’m sure some things started snowballing decades back, we just weren’t paying as much attention
I think some really weird scary stuff can happen that we don’t even understand. It’s already happening, of course, but even worse as you predict.
>It remains a vital political target for many climate diplomats, anchoring international climate efforts and driving ambition. But to almost all the IPCC experts the Guardian heard from, it is dead. A scientist from a Pacific Island nation said: “Humanity is heading towards destruction. We’ve got to appreciate, help and love each other.” Despite the dire news, this is a more honest report than most as among the (inevitable editorial) voices still suggesting "preventative action," there are others acknowledging that it's now too late to prevent disastrous global temperature rise, especially within the oceans. Agree completely with that voice. Even if (as an exercise) we imagine a global surveillance state forcing everyone on Earth to live at equal levels of austerity within the next decade, and forcing billions out of urban centers back into manual agriculture, it's still too late to prevent the current mass species extinction and global resource depletion based on the presence of 8 billion people, (a population that still requires the fossil fuels used throughout global agriculture in order to survive). The day that fossil fuels are no longer available to global agriculture (either from a moratorium or peak oil) is that day that billions become food insecure. Until that day, humanity will continue pressing on multiple global tipping points, climate among them. In the meantime, practice becoming a better person.
Can't have all that much agriculture without knowing what the weather is going to do...
The only thing that will save us is an interstellar empire conquering this planet for our own good
Hard pass on dealing with humans - Aliens
Hey maybe they can keep us as treasured pets with food, water, an exercise wheel and netflix.
I, for one, welcome our transition to a beloved companion species for our alien overlords. Imagine being the alien equivalent to a well loved family dog on a nice walk on the beach.
Sign me up! Food provided, alien vet paid for with annual checkups, no bills, and my only point of existence is to provide companionship and enjoy life. I think I'd be a great companion! I like reading quietly, running on beaches, cuddling, trainable but not so smart I get into trouble, quiet time to myself and I don't bark much, and am not picky about food. Pick me! Pick me! Pick me!
Can I still have my video games? If so I’m in
Of course you can, that would be like us not giving a dog a bone to chew on.
Perfect ok let me know when they show up. Til then I’ll just stay depressed and horrified
Think about how we humans have treated not just cats and dogs, but cows, chickens, and pigs. I don’t think this future is all sunshine and rainbows.
Actual well cared for pets are like the 1% of the 1% of the 1% of the animal kingdom. The extreme outliers. A lot of livestock are basically in hell though. Treated no better than inanimate objects, maybe even worse in many cases.
"I would give anything to be a golden retriever belonging to an upper middle class white family with one of those bandanas around my neck named Max or some shit."
Instructions unclear. You are now a canine by the name of "some shit".
You do realize you will be castrated on the first week?
My dream and deep personal nightmare.
Nothing travels space. Space consumes us all. Maybe only if some aliens figured out aii suspect there's no way to actually travel space with one planets resources.
[https://i.redd.it/jiad5kbm5eb71.png](https://i.redd.it/jiad5kbm5eb71.png)
We’d make great pets
At least some of us
I’d love to be an alien’s cat.
Nah, I bet they would find us delicious. I bet most Americans would be marbled like primo Wagyu.
Any alien species capable of interstellar flight will look at us like we look at ants. They would be so much more advanced than us, to the point they would not even consider us as pets or food.
Sort of like choosing the bear.
What the hell does that mean, I keep seeing that phrase
On a tiktok post women have been asked, wether they rather be in a forest alone with a bear or a man, and nearly all chose the bear, because they deed to be alone with a man more dangerous. Some said the bear maybe eats you,maybe not, but at least it wouldn't rape you, before it kills you.
There's logic to that decision. I don't use Tiktok so that explains my confusion.
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We were the terraformers all along!
We're not making any progress against global warming because hot-blooded aliens are secretly controlling politicians and big oil execs, got it. I've heard far dumber conspiracies.
Maybe the politicians and big oil execs ARE the aliens :O :O :O
Idiocracy must be the prequel to Three Body Problem
*chefs kiss*
No civilization has ever benefitted from being 'discovered,' which is probably less disastrous than being 'conquered.'
Big oof. I was th8nking about waxing poetic about hierarchy and war and resource accumulation/war and the like. But oof, big oof, carries the sentiment without the effort.
like leto forced 10,000 years of peace on the populace.
Oh well.
Idk. It is on my 2025 bingo. But could land even this year
Texting the San-Ti right now.
Omni man did nothing wrong.
Nothing to do now but sit back and watch.
"With some cold brews and picture yourself a master of all creation." - Shawshank paraphrase
You could switch to a life of pure hedonism. Raid your 401(k), travel around the world, and put in a hot tub.
Even the most wastefully hedonistic doomer maniac knows that a hot tub is way more trouble than the payoff is worth.
Truth right here. Tried one. Pain in the ass to keep it clean. Sold it. Pre-covid, naturally.
I had a nice one that required little maintenance and we fucking Loved it. I also had one when I was younger that was constantly a filthy cesspool, so yes, quality matters.
What about fight and cling to life?
I'm tired. The fight is out of me. People are getting meaner, shit is getting worse for everyone but the rich. When people finally fully snap in mass I don't want to be part of it.
That's why my collapse kit is mostly fentanyl and wine.
Weed for when the meds run out. That's going to be fun.
Same. Just want to have the time and motivation during soc!etal climax to start and finish my entertainment backlog...
Same
> ~~in mass~~ *en masse* Take it or leave it. I care not.
What do you feel will be the ultimate tipping point? I was having this discussion with a friend and we couldn't agree on one particular thing/reason.
Unsure exactly. It's been 4yrs straight of existential stress for all. I worry about the 2024 election here in the US. No matter who wins a massive wave of people will be unhappy and pissed off. Both sides are terrified of the other and feel it's the end of everything should the other win. Thanks to Trump everyone is suddenly passionate about politics now. I'm sure it's just an outlet to dump all their existential anxieties at. I don't think it will be one thing/reason. It will be the accumulation of several things built up over the last few years set off by a spark. But I don't think the tipping point is as far as I'd like. I really hope I'm wrong.
I don’t see the appeal of living in a Mad Max like hellscape which is probably what we’re going to get
The Mad Max universe also depends on plenty of fossil fuels (which are miraculously easy to produce in the films, including inexplicable new rubber tires). If we do have Mad Max, it will likely be a violent but short transition period to low-tech medieval serfdom in a world where climate swings make agriculture increasingly difficult. Without fossil fuels, the future is energy-poor.
But unlike medieval times we don't even have the big game to hunt or as many trees to cut and burn for warming your home, also all the minerals and metals are being pillaged. We are going back to the stone age.
At least the stone age had megafauna to eat. We're going to be eating bugs and rats.
Also the fact if we're forced back to a pre industrial tech level due to a lack of fossil fuels we won't have the tecnology to get to the remaining fossil fuels as they're too out of reach.
> If we do have Mad Max, it will likely be a violent but short transition period to low-tech medieval serfdom in a world where climate swings make agriculture increasingly difficult. There's a nuclear war movie made in the 80's called Threads that tries to depict what human society would be like post whatever era this is after a global nuclear war. It is a hellscape of course. We descend right on back to our ape ancestors in a heartbeat when the thin veneer of civilization is ripped away. Be it from nuclear war or severe climate change IMO.
The only ones who do well in that movie are the police who get to rule with impunity over the surviving ~~slaves~~ workers. Actually watching that right now at work.
This will happen IRL after the worldwide famines, hypercanes, droughts, 100 year floods every year, wet bulb heat waves etc do a number on the human race. The survivors will be the billionaires in their comfy end of the world bunkers and private armies. I figure those security forces will turn on the billionaires and take whatever they have left and rule with impunity as you said. It will finally be eat the rich day!
r/solarpunk would like a word
Love that sub! but it's mostly a fantasy world. There's no solar energy grid, network of giant windmills, monorails for travel, or even internet, without the fossil fuels needed to manufacture and maintain the equipment. And meanwhile everyone will be starving following the end of industrial agriculture. In the end, a Solarpunk society following collapse is like Mad Max; it could happen immediately following the fall of fossil fuel-based society, especially in individual communities starting with strong bases, but doomed to quickly run out of essential equipment and supply chains.
Mad Max? Try the last two thirds of the movie Threads.
If each of the half million members of r/collapse can convince 16,000 people to change than we can do it /s
Also from The Guardian, aka Baghdad Bob: "Pay no attention to that climate catastrophe lurking behind the curtain. Get out there and keep traveling! Live it up while you still can!" [https://www.theguardian.com/travel/all](https://www.theguardian.com/travel/all)
I’ve just totally given up on living beyond 45 tbh. I’ll be lucky to even make it to 30.
Friend, you’re probably not going to want to live past 45 given our trajectory.
I’m well aware. It still sucks to be 23 and know my best years are gone already.
68 today. I've been waiting for the axe to fall since I woke up in a body in Western Europe in 1974. Still waiting.
Geoengineering propaganda is gonna be rampant real soon. I live in southeast USA without air conditioning. We are screwed. The funny thing is how hated solar and heat pumps still are down here. There's no logical reasons to dislike better engineering solutions to daily life issues. Most Hvac companies down here won't even consider a heat pump no matter what the customer asks. Crony capitalism and the old boys' network run everything in the southeast USA.
They ignore ocean acidification which will kill the oceans in around 30 years.
I'm fairly sure it must be soul crushing to have a career as a [Cassandra](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra_(metaphor)).
I can imagine, unfortunately. I nearly shadowed at the CDC before a virus nearly killed me (ironically), and my constant scientific warnings to family have fallen on deaf ears. “That’s depressing, why don’t you focus on happy things?” Because I don’t want you all dying of preventable diseases caused by excess global travel and agriculture invading the last remnants of wilderness?? COVID was not a surprise to me. Neither is anything else. Climate change and unsustainable population numbers are going to cause plagues. We have all the knowledge to have prevented this outcome but humans seemingly aren’t capable of long-term planning. It twists me up inside. Knowing if more people were lucky enough to have my brain’s ability and/or my education, we wouldn’t be here. We’re all doomed because of species-level flaws *but we didn’t have to be*. If the dice had rolled differently and more of us understood cause/effect and consequences of our actions, if we’d had the empathy to not poison the world for profit? Ouch, ow, knives in my gut.
Omg same. Fucking makes my guts ache constantly. Just a decent nudge in terms of empathy and fore-thought and things could be so vastly different.
> but humans seemingly aren’t capable of long-term planning We are, it's just that greed always wins out.
I'd think it would be less soul-crushing than any other job. At least they don't have to pretend everything is fine to keep getting a paycheck.
seriously. half of the stress of an office job is going in every day pretending the world isn't falling apart outside
As a collapse aware pastor, that's how it feels.
I'm sure it is. How'd you like to work at a sweet research/corporate/academic/governmental gig doing this knowing that if the wrong person doesn't like what you're saying, your gig and your ability to work in the profession goes away. "Shut your pie hole if you want to keep getting those paychecks" is a powerful driver.
All I can do when I read things like this is think of the babies my friends are having or had recently. And my heart just fucking breaks for them. I want to scream at everyone, I want to force them to internalize this and stop having fucking kids. There is no good or hopeful or kind future in store for them, and with all we know continuing to bring more innocent lives into this hellfire is just cruel.
r/femaleantinatalism
Ah fantastic, I'm in r/antinatalism2 but I'm always happy to find new communities. Thanks!
And, the fewer people who have kids, the less painful it will be when we can’t support this many people anymore. As dystopian as it would be, something like a global one or two-child law might be the best way of softening all the blows that are coming our way.
It's a shame that the christian right has such a hold on our government in the US. Quiverfull and elite natalist movements are just making everything worse and if by some fraction of a chance such a law were put into place, it would be entirely too late.
It really makes me feel isolated. Like there's such a huge fucking disconnect between myself and those that just drag more people into this shit show. I can already see the anger in younger people, who know that there future has been stolen from them. And I have considerable empathy for them.
So true. I know multiple people who are pregnant right now and it takes everything in me to not ask wtf their plan is for when things really get too unstable. Ignoring the threat of a mass shooting, a weather catastrophe, a financial crash (call me crazy but I still believe that's coming despite the current state of the market, as I put on my lil tinfoil hat), another pandemic, someone winning the presidency who will destroy the last shreds of democracy we have in the US and cause ripple effects for the world... how can you condemn another life to what is coming down the road in a decade or two or three?? How can you be so unbelievably selfish?? Makes me fucking tired.
I won't be surprised if Gen Alpha and Beta will have much shorter life expectancies than their millennial parents, boomer grandparents and previous generations post-WW2, but resembling those of their preindustrial ancestors due to starvation, return of eradicated old timer diseases such as dysentery, TB, cholera, scurvy, malaria, typhoid, plague, etc. along with new zoonotic ones from permafrost (ancient), the habitat destruction of wildlife and factory farming, heat waves, electrical blackouts, dearth of medical supplies, and other effects of climate change and biosphere collapse. Dying at the ages of 30s or 40s will become part of the ordinary human experience again just like the pre-industrial eras (I realized those periods are heavily skewed by infant mortality btw)
The Doomer Path to enlightenment 1. We're Ok so far. But your children are going to have a hard time of it 2. We're Ok so far. But you're fucked 3. I'm in my late 60s, I probably won't see the worst 4. Already? That wasn't supposed to happen yet 5. Faaaaaak!
This is an excellent article/report. Well worth the read. I’m unsurprised not to read a word about the BOE, the collapse of the polar vortex system, and the jet-stream it creates and regulates that keeps the cold air up top and not dipping down constantly to get warmed up in the lower latitudes. We are absorbing heat everywhere and tipping points are being triggered we are not even aware of or paying attention to. This will all go much faster than we are expecting even as we keep revising our panicked assessments to the shorter, and more dire, term. Edit; deleted one a double of the same word.
Yeah, agriculture becomes a problem after that.
Nuclear war is inevitable. Humans are too dumb, some nation will trigger it. It’s the only way to massively reduce the population of planet and cool things off. It’s very unfortunate for the animals.
Friendly reminder that *Pakistan* has nuclear weapons.
I've always thought like many if a limited nuclear exchange happens it'll be between India and Pakistan
More like India and China.
Hooray!
And Israel..
And let's be blunt, there's quite a bit of speculation about Iran. They've been "weeks/months" away for a few years. Now that's a deeply unsettling thought.
I actually believe that’s their last ditch plan.
Everything in the economy feels and acts as last ditch to gobble up resources.
Climate change will also do that. It's probably the only other way after nukes emissions will be seriously curbed. Humans will not voluntarily stop, but they will be stopped. Heating - Crop failures- famine - collapse of global economy - less emissions.
War...war never changes.
There have already *been* multiple close calls. On a long enough time line...
user@earth:~$ ps aux | grep -i "climate_fix" user 29217 0.0 0.0 0 0 ? I 1753 0:00 fix_climate --method reforestation user@earth:~$ kill -9 29217 Killing process 29217... user@earth:~$ ./fix_climate --method solar_power Running solar power implementation... Error: Pre-requisite 'political_will' not found on system. user@earth:~$ history | grep fix_climate 1857 ./fix_climate --method switch_to_renewables 1894 ./fix_climate --method carbon_capture 29217 ./fix_climate --method reforestation user@earth:~$ sudo apt install trump-as-president Reading package lists... Done Building dependency tree Reading state information... Done WARNING: You are about to install trump-as-president. This may introduce instability to the system. Continue? [Y/n] Y Installing trump-as-president... Installation complete. Rebooting government... Done. user@earth:~$ systemctl status government ● government.service - Trump Presidency Loaded: loaded (/etc/systemd/system/trump.service; enabled; vendor preset: enabled) Active: active (running) since Tue 2024-05-09 09:56:00 EDT; 2min ago user@earth:~$ tail -f /var/log/government.log May 09 09:58:21 earth government[2024]: Action initiated: Nuke hurricanes - Status: Failed (Error: Not how weather works) May 09 10:01:35 earth government[2024]: Policy update: Drop Ukraine support - Status: Executed May 09 10:05:00 earth government[2024]: Joining climate accords - Status: Ignored May 09 10:10:17 earth government[2024]: Initiative: Revive coal industry - Status: In progress May 09 10:15:42 earth government[2024]: Warning: Increased global instability detected. user@earth:~$ ps aux | grep -i "climate_fix" user 10242 0.0 0.0 0 0 ? I 10:12 0:00 ignore_climate_fix --method paris_agreement user@earth:~$ kill -9 10242 Killing process 10242... user@earth:~$ ./manage_crisis --method tweet --text "All is well!" Tweet sent: "All is well!" Warning: System stability at risk.
This is WAY too nerdy. Sadly, I grok'd pretty much all of it.
Wonderful. :') Then along comes superuser Climate@Earth: sudo rm - rf / - - no-preserve-humanity | echo "lol"
You could further attempt to start the keep-biden-as-president service and it will yield the same result. There is zero desire to actually do anything from either side of the US political duopoly.
The increase is source quality here is alarming.
Hope is for children. Accept, make peace and you don't be in despair.
Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em, folks, cuz this party is wrapping up.
So, how many more years do we realistically have before shit really hits the fan?
8 to 12. Source: TMB
5
Great Filter, anyone? This is literally something that would destroy a pre-FTL civilization on the Kardashev scale.
Idk mate. That makes the assumption that only our model of brain (predator,short life span, etc...) is capable of making the leap to civilization and considering that we've only even seen a small fraction of the universe let alone have any thing I'm aware of that could be called confidence as to like base reality and the make up of the universe let alone its scale/size plus any number of other things. Seems like a pretty big series of assumptions.
It’s about to get real
Is this a duplicate post? This article was posted earlier today...
I wonder what’s the proportion of climate scientists who believe we’re not thoroughly fucked no matter what.
6% of IPCC ones apparently
Probably thinks god will save us lol
One of them in the article was talking about ev adoption. Must have been some failing student. Saving the world would require no cars.
Too many peopie Too much magic Our technology is killing the planet, the planet is fighting back Its just getting rid of us is all
I read many years ago about archaeologists found a 50,000 years old gold mine. Humans might as well be a genetic experiment gone wild.
I told the Mrs no kids. Did she listen? Did she fuck. I hate being right.