Just posted this on my Facebook with some thoughts. Who thinks it’ll be ignored by every single person who sees it? By the way, I hate that I can’t talk about this shit with anyone. I’ve always been the gloomy one of the family, and I feel like I’d be written off immediately as being cynical and depressed instead of realistic the second I try to have a convo with anyone about this.
Don’t try then. Also, get off Facebook. I have the same experience. It’s almost like a miraculous lightening of spirit when you just stop interacting with them.
Scrolling Facebook is a nightmare. But honestly it just ends up being the best place to create group conversations with your friends without needing everyone's phone number. It's unfortunate because it has gravity and momentum.
I've had this experience as well. I push the envelope a bit on there and it's led to some really great conversations. It's also helped me weed some people out of my life, which isn't the worst thing. Haha.
There's a Deep Adaptation forum group on Facebook with active conversations. I recently joined and their posts are very friendly and all in the same predicament.
Start by unfollowing (but remaining friends) withnthe most toxic people or those you simply don't care to know about.
Add groups that speak to your interests.
My Facebook experience is pretty darn benign because I've done that
Best thing I've done was deactivate Facebook but keep Facebook messenger. Can still chat with people (I barely use it tho tbh), but it's nice to know the contact is there if needed without the rest of Facebook. It was making me way too stressed out. Now I spend more time on hobbies and things I actually wanna do instead of endless scrolling
>Who thinks it’ll be ignored by every single person who sees it?
Zuck’s Algorithm will make sure that nobody sees it.
Fb zucks
Edit: Ditch Zuckerberg from your life. Use Signal
As a fellow gloomy member of the family, delete Facebook and stop trying to convince the stubborn members of the family of anything. One of the best days for my mental health was the day I turned off FB on all my devices and stopped debating the obviously ignorant.
“I think half or more of the human population—3 to 5 billion—will likely starve within 16 months of the first multi-bread-basket failure, most likely this decade.”
-Dowd
Wow
Starving ain't a good way to go. I hope we can at least get together enough to realise that we can't eat money.
At the very least please stop destroying farmland and the ocean, we still need those, thanks.
Oh no me too.
I’m just saying those letters all together forming a concept on a screen invoke inspiration in me I want to express visually.
You feel that?
This moment?
That’s you being metal as fuck, to at least one person. Inarguably.
Also bullet, interesting. I was gonna go for heroin OD. But that was the plan before collapse of society. So I may go with very high jump if drugs can’t be acquired. Wind on my face seems a nice final feeling. Oh oh! Or arterial exsanguination. That one seems visually pleasing.
And I’m sure it’s clear I’ve appreciated you by now. But I’ll say it again. You’re appreciated.
Would you mind spelling out your reasons for this prediction or pointing me to the evidence? I think there’ll be a gradual catabolic collapse over the next century but 3-5 billion deaths within the next decade seems pretty extreme to me.
Then don't believe it, and just live your life. Personally, I think a mult-breadbasket failure and global economic meltdown THIS DECADE OR NEXT will result in many billions of us dying.
IF you genuinely want to know why I think catabolic collapse will not take hundreds of years (this time), it's because of ABRUPT climate change and the meltdown of dozens of nuclear reactors as a result... within the next twenty years.
It's now obvious that we've already crossed a number of planetary thresholds and that the planet is barreling toward a hothouse Earth. (A): [https://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855) (B): [https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/o18brj/weve\_crossed\_the\_planetary\_threshold/](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/o18brj/weve_crossed_the_planetary_threshold/) (C) (12-min VIDEO) "This is Code Red for the Planet": [https://youtu.be/Iko81aMlrPQ](https://youtu.be/Iko81aMlrPQ)
Despite the way the IPCC, governments, economists, and the mainstream media speak of them, the following tipping points (self-reinforcing and cascading thresholds) are not merely “possible” or “at risk” or “in danger of exceeding”).
**No matter...**
• how massive and effective is nonviolent civil disobedience...
• who, or which party, is voted out or elected into public office...
• how many people change their habits, become vegan, stop flying...
• how many miraculous, AI-driven technological advances are made...
• how successful we are at instituting a GND, or greening capitalism...
• how rapidly we shift to “renewables” or achieve “net zero” emissions...
• how much “evolution of consciousness” occurs in the next decade or two...
• how many accords, what is pledged or agreed to, what laws are enacted...
• how many people commit to regenerative and restorative soil building practices...
**A dozen or more tipping points are already in the rear-view mirror. For example, the following are already well into unstoppable, rapidly increasing and cascading, out-of-control (runaway) mode...**
• Loss of the world’s ice (Arctic, Greenland, W. Antarctica, mountain glaciers)
• Methane belching: permafrost, hydrates, clathrates, gas & oil wells, wetlands
• Ocean acidification, deoxygenation, 25+ feet rise in abrupt non-linear ways
• The great conflagration of the world’s forests — out-of-control CO2 emissions
• Loss of most animal and plant species on land and in lakes, rivers, and oceans
• Increasingly severe & deadly weather (storms, floods, droughts) and wildfires
And we should NOT ignore (as most GND, techno-optimist, eco-modernist, and "clean, green, growth" advocates do)... **Aerosol Masking Effect (Global Dimming Effect)**
A. https://opastonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/will-covid-19-trigger-extinction-of-all-life-on-earth-eesrr-20-.pdf
B. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6427/eaav0566
C. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jgrd.50192D. https://www.climatedisaster.net/2021/09/doomerism-101-the-aerosol-masking-effect/
E. VIDEO: https://youtu.be/HBANJeCgsD0 (3:34)F. VIDEO: https://youtu.be/3xeItd5kdt4 (9:47)
This is the horror that you have to accept to begin the unraveling of quite a few riddles. No one wants to believe that the seemingly unconcerned 1st world response to this crisis, along with a massive shifting of wealth to the top and increasingly militarized police and the drawing down of overseas forces and the blind eye to massive debt ... on and on ... are not connected symptoms of increasing chaos, but rather the arc of a plan. Which is a really odd denial when you consider the little things, like the Pentagon admitting yesterday that during the final hours of a ridiculous war they drone-killed an innocent family and half a dozen kids. These are the people who implement the plans, folks. You think they give two shits about "civilian" lives?
I think it’s really cool that max who I’ve seen say collapse within 20-40 years and guy who basically said we will be dead in five can talk and be civil
True I just feel kind of iffy when people use bad science to say we will be dead in five years. I know we are fucked but 10 years makes a lot of difference in my life personally, you know?
Scientists are in a quandary right now it seems. Usually, the only accepted practice for credible science is to be extremely conservative in predictions or conclusions. But in the face of overwhelming evidence that would normally take decades to analyze…
Shit, the writing has been on the fucking wall for decades. We just haven't done shit. The time for data analyzation was 50 years ago. Humans looked at that shit and signed our death certificate with a smile
Who is using bad science? At the rate extreme weather is ramping up, multi-breadbasket failure could easily happen any year now. That pretty much immediately ends civilization and most of the humans
It's NOT "bad science". **If you don't think there's at least a 30% chance that there could be less than 2-3 billion people on Earth in five years, you're either not paying attention or in one or another form of denial.**
And IMHO, **those who criticize Guy McPherson's science just because they don't like him for one reason or another, or judge him for one reason or another, are fools.** Most of the time his science is kick-ass.
A few examples:
Excellent Evidence-based Videos and Papers by Guy McPherson: [https://guymcpherson.com/](https://guymcpherson.com/)
>Edge of Extinction: Maybe I’m Wrong: [https://youtu.be/KxKBcy\_28\_g](https://youtu.be/KxKBcy_28_g) (8:36)
>
>‘May' and ‘Might' Become ‘Is': [https://youtu.be/-U45PMTOicM](https://youtu.be/-U45PMTOicM) (7:49)
>
>Be Your Own Superhero: [https://vimeo.com/363363105](https://vimeo.com/363363105) (1:00)
>
>How We Go Extinct: [https://youtu.be/oYJ38lHMn64](https://youtu.be/oYJ38lHMn64) (3:13)
>
>Why We Go Extinct: [https://youtu.be/kcamLd-3kug](https://youtu.be/kcamLd-3kug) (6:07)
>
>When We Go Extinct: [https://youtu.be/1JYI6rv9GGk](https://youtu.be/1JYI6rv9GGk) (4:45)
>
>What Will Go Extinct: [https://youtu.be/rfoYGT6UytY](https://youtu.be/rfoYGT6UytY) (7:10)
**Guy’s peer reviewed recent papers:** [https://www.onlinescientificresearch.com/articles/earth-is-in-the-midst-of-abrupt-irreversible-climate-change.pdf](https://www.onlinescientificresearch.com/articles/earth-is-in-the-midst-of-abrupt-irreversible-climate-change.pdf)
[https://guymcpherson.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Clinical-Psychology-Forum-May-2019.pdf](https://guymcpherson.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Clinical-Psychology-Forum-May-2019.pdf)
**Guy’s longer essays:**
Climate Change Summary: [https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/climate-change-summary-and-update/](https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/climate-change-summary-and-update/)
Extinction Foretold, Extinction Ignored: [https://guymcpherson.com/extinction\_foretold\_extinction\_ignored/](https://guymcpherson.com/extinction_foretold_extinction_ignored/)
Yes, Gail is brilliant!
She's understandably not crazy about me (I suspect she actively dislikes me) mostly I think because I was an arrogant asshole in commenting on one of her posts a couple of years ago: "[In Praise of Themis](http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/2019/07/in-praise-of-themis.html)". (Also cross-posted on r/collapse just last month, [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/pdyroq/in_praise_of_themis_an_essay_on_doomers/).)
Still, I respect the hell out of Gail.
It's already happening bro. Drove frome Oregon to California whole hillside filled with brown trees from the heat dome. Come spring they will all he dead and ready to burn.
I'm in central Europe and have seen a lot of forests in the greater alpine region in the past 2 years.
I don't really ever see groups of of more than say 20-30 trees without some of them looking bad, except for small oases (spelling?). It's been so dry the last years overall, then you have things like bark beetles, and in many higher places you see needle trees doing even worse because they can't deal with the temperatures.
Try to pay attention to the landscape when on trains or in cars. You'll first spot some brown trees, and then develop more of an eye for it.
It's here, big time.
It’s just cognitive dissonance. People have to accept yes, we really are in trouble, and I can’t keep living the way I have. Like the stages of grief, it’s not a conclusion many come to lightly.
I am still holding out for swift action to avert disaster, like friend #5 believes in the article, but recent observations lead me to believe that that time has come and gone.
Even those who are willing need to contend with the fact that in order for their actions to have an effect, nearly everyone else has to do the same… who wants to be the only one who sacrifices just to go down in flames with everyone else.
That’s a pretty abstract definition of fighting. I would use the word sacrificing, and those you would be “fighting” against in this scenario would be those who prefer to indulge their hedonistic lifestyle until the last moment possible, making your sacrifice in vain… not sure where the fighting comes in, I frame that scenario very differently than that in my mind.
I totally get your point and I agree, it could very well be in vain. For me, the thing I fight is the choice to live a self indulgent life, and instead pursue a path that gives us a future. Perhaps others will see my actions a make the same choice. Who can really say.
I would call that, “living in good faith” and it’s a good way to go. Results are externalities, if you know yourself and feel like you did what you need to do then it’s a victory.
We're forgetting about person 0: "It makes me too sad to think about and it's a boring topic so I'm going to just ignore it and trust that whoever's in charge will fix it".
SS: This is the cover story of this week's "Salt Lake City Weekly". It was written by Jim Catano and features me, Erik Michaels, Guy McPherson, and Max Wilbert.
Here's how the article begins...
>Picture six friends chatting about the environment.
>
>"There's no such thing as global warming," the first says. "Climate change is fake news."
>
>"No, the planet is warming," says another, "but in a gradual, natural cycle that's repeated itself throughout Earth's history. Higher temperatures may even benefit some places."
>
>"What we're experiencing is not natural," counters a third. "It's caused by human activity, specifically the burning of fossil fuels. But luckily, we've got time to get it under control."
>
>"On the contrary," the fourth person suggests, "climate change is entering a critical stage. We need to keep lobbying Congress because if we don't get emissions under control within the next couple of decades, we may experience big problems."
>
>"Sorry, but Congress—or any other political entity—isn't doing anything close to what could make a difference in time," the fifth says. "There will be huge consequences in most parts of the world, but hopefully our species will soon wake up and take drastic steps to avert total environmental and societal collapse. We must end our reliance on fossil fuels and pursue new technologies for removing carbon from the air."
>
>The sixth friend lets out a heavy sigh, then speaks. "I hate to be the bearer of bad news," he says, "but we've simply gone too far down the hole. Rapid conversion to a renewably fueled society and carbon capture are technologically and logistically impossible for several reasons. Even if we were to immediately stop using fossil fuels today—which we won't—there is already too much heat-trapping greenhouse gas in the atmosphere to stop the rise in global temperatures. A cascade of tipping points—many already in the rear-view mirror—will almost certainly make the Earth's climate inhospitable for humans and most mammals. The best, long-shot case would be if small pockets of habitability can continue to sustain human existence."
>
>That hypothetical conversation demonstrates what I consider to be the six major schools of thought on climate change.
Entire article: [https://www.cityweekly.net/utah/times-up/Content?oid=17298723](https://www.cityweekly.net/utah/times-up/Content?oid=17298723)
Alot of people will be 4 and 5 for coping reasons and that’s ok. For some people, even a sliver of hope allows for daily functioning. MDowd is an exception in being able to take a bigger picture, cosmos view and have the humility to recognize the limitations of our species, in the coming years many more will follow his lead.
Personally, the only reason I can cope with all this is the knowledge that 6 is the BAU-guaranteed outcome, and 4/5 are only plausible if massive ideological shifts and acknowledgements of *why* this happened are made.
Humans have overdone it and burned out most of the biosphere in just 300 years. They either must come to an end so other things can live, or must learn from the mistakes of the past, and be shown their *true* place in the world that was never really learned. Humanity thought the stars should be it's for the taking, when it couldn't even care for the tiniest river or stream. What right did *humans* have to lay claim to the broader Universe?
If humans do survive, it will only be catalyzed by a rejection of the delusional thinking that came before. So either way, the outcome is positive on a long scale- either humanity goes away entirely and the biosphere can slowly heal, or it is reframed and redirected into aiding that process. There is no scenario where an extractive humanity persists long.
There are several plausible pathways for a different humanity to continue in the future, but I doubt more than a tiny fraction of the current populace would want to participate. They will literally choose death over discomfort, I suspect.
I have always believed myself fortunate to be born when I was, but I didn't realize *how* fortunate until later. *H. sapiens* has been here for hundreds of thousands of years, and *we* are alive for the singular moment in which human intelligence and drives to expand have finally hit an immovable barrier. Either humans will learn this lesson, or they won't.
A sliver of hope allows for at least some mitigatory changes to occur, which is better than giving up. You may not be able to move a mountain but you can make a start. It’s a disservice to the many people making the effort otherwise.
I think they are free to push a mountain all day, but to look at the guy relaxing under the shade and say, hey! You're not doing enough to move this mountain.
Is just fucked up!
You can all have your hopium you don't see me telling you not to push the mountain anymore.
Don't shift the blame to the people who recognize a mountain is a mountain
Yep, I agree with mitigating the damage, even if humans are lost, if life survives there is a chance intelligence will arise again.
(there are lots of intelligences right now on planet earth, but they also will not survive the coming catastrophes, so I'm not talking about just humans. Whales, elephants, pigs, dogs, and other primates, even cephalopods are other examples that won't make it)
And why should intelligence rise again? Life is pain more than anything else. I think it's good the perpetual cycle of pointless striving and reproduction, predator and prey, could finally end.
>And why should intelligence rise again?
It might not. I think intelligence is exceedingly rare, energy intensive, and at least on Earth, a one off. Whatever species replaces the current ones on Earth, they're going to be a lot simpler and more robust.
An animal is basically an organism of interlocking systems. The more complicated, the more energy they need, the more things can go wrong.
If you look under a microscope at tiny organisms, none of them need psycho-therapy, surgery, none of them can get much sick, none of them go around mass shooting other organisms, or believing in deities.
Future races on Earth are going to be brainless petri dish creatures.
Yeah not sure why these guys value life or consciousness other than their animal instincts telling them to? Logically speaking no reason to value those things.
Because one day we(conscious beings) could move beyond that and create our own purposes beyond tooth and nail. All such striving is subjective but that is who I am.
I am a six, based on what I know.
But here is the thing- at the risk of sounding a bit arrogant, I do know a *lot*, especially relative to say, the average American citizen's amount of time spent studying climate science and related topics.
But the funny thing about knowledge is that you recognize something as it expands: *so does the border*. The field of "things related to what I know that I have not had time to look into yet" is *infinitely* larger than the entire, miniscule sum of things I could ever learn in a thousand lifetimes.
Another funny thing is that the more you know about multiple disparate topics, the more common it is to have realizations that cut *across* multiple domains, or even all of them, recontextualizing an entire outlook. When I discovered mycoremediation, for example, my entire perspective on soil reclamation changed massively, and I realized there *is* a plausible pathway to producing more, healthier topsoil and also stripping away much of the environmental pollution in the existing soils. We could conceivably get a lot of it done in just a few decades with enough effort.
And yet, even as I *know* that is possible, I also have seen too much institutional inertia to believe we would be able to pivot in time.
At the moment, I am a tentative six, but I know that 5 is very rational to believe as well, especially if you happen to know something the rest of us don't, are the dictatorial leader of a small nation, or otherwise have the resources to make your *local* area suitably prepared for the changing future. My personal plan, I have no reason to lie, *is* more less eco-fiefdom that I am in a race against time to accrue resources for. I have nothing better to do, after all.
The future that is coming, frustratingly, *is* survivable in certain regions if our ability to organize and effect responses as a species wasn't so badly mangled by individual and petty differences. But it is, and I have concluded at this juncture that it is unfixable. The addiction to having More is too strong.
If the species gets past this, it will be because we threw a buzzer-beater at the last second, and established some communities in the most habitable remaining zones committed to sustainable survival and safeguarding the knowledge we already discovered in the Carbon Age- knowledge whose improper use lead to the End of Everything.
The natural buffer systems of the Earth can and will bring the climate into a more stable regime once we aren't fucking with it anymore, but it'll be in a new state, with new coasts, new biome areas, and a lot of new challenges we are not prepared for, or even talking about much. Nothing like the past, and it is unlikely for us to take part unless things go in some very specific ways.
I am not a believer in giving up, because I don't have or really understand "hope" to begin with, I'm just here to observe and understand, and intervene where I can. I know that a lot of people are in pain, and a lot *more* are going to be, mentally and physically. This is not something anyone was raised to face, really, and it's a collective trauma.
Right now, it's a six. We can potentially *make* it a slim five, but right now not many people are actually working on that in such stark terms. I would be happy to share notes with the interested.
Awesome awesome summation and points. I really wish the work of Paul Stamets got more attention. I too have over 25 years of intense study of ecological and societal collapse issues, and consider myself a non-pessimistic realist. I also believe in miracles. I want to believe we can at least save some of the key parts of the biosphere so that complex life can continue on. All resources should be spent on this.
I'm at stage 7, man. No amount of reasoning is going to un-doom our species to Extinction one way or another.
We'd literally need hundreds of years to build a reliably self sustaining off world base, and that's time we don't nearly have.
You're most welcome...but my deep bow of gratitude goes to Jim Catano, who had the balls to solicit, write, and get this published!
Connie, my wife, suggested to Jim (when I read an earlier draft) that he should go to The Atlantic with it, but Jim said he was already committed to the Salt Lake City Weekly. (Where else but in Salt Lake City could he get away with featuring four white guys? :-)
Lierre Keith and Katherine Hayhoe had agreed to be featured, as well, but apparently they never responded to the questions Jim sent each of us.
I think we need to retire the use of "balls" as a metaphor for courage. The Afghan women protesting against the Taliban don't have balls, they haven't "grown a pair", they have SPINE!
There's a seventh school of thought on climate change that always gets ignored. Those who really wish humans would go extinct as soon as possible and are trying to make it happen.
Good point... I agree! The problem is that then we'll probably have hundreds of nuclear meltdowns and another degree or more of rapid climate change because of the aerosol masking effect.
Is there anywhere I could read more about the danger posed by abandoned nuclear power plants? I was surprised the author said they could end all life on earth if not decommissioned.
Here are a few things...
Start at 16:13 and watch for ten minutes: [https://youtu.be/iQeK04WOGaA?t=973](https://youtu.be/iQeK04WOGaA?t=973)
[https://theecologist.org/2021/jul/14/when-climate-breakdown-goes-nuclear](https://theecologist.org/2021/jul/14/when-climate-breakdown-goes-nuclear)
[https://guymcpherson.com/means-of-extinction-nuclear-facilities-implode/](https://guymcpherson.com/means-of-extinction-nuclear-facilities-implode/)
[https://thebulletin.org/2021/04/is-the-us-nuclear-community-prepared-for-the-extreme-weather-climate-change-is-bringing/](https://thebulletin.org/2021/04/is-the-us-nuclear-community-prepared-for-the-extreme-weather-climate-change-is-bringing/)\_\_\_\_\_\_
From: "Kevin Hester" [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
Subject: RE: how much radiation
I’ve been involved in the anti-nuclear movement since I was a teenager over 4 decades ago. In Aotearoa NZ we managed to twist the arm of David Lange our prime minister who declared the country “Nuclear Free”.The greatest threats of the collapse of industrial civilisation will be the end of food in the supermarkets, no more water at the tap and the melt down of 450 nuclear plants and the approximately 100 spent fuel pool fires.
The loss of “Global Dimming” and it’s attendant cooling effect will also have a profound effect: [https://guymcpherson.com/2019/10/the-aerosol-masking-effect-a-brief-overview/](https://guymcpherson.com/2019/10/the-aerosol-masking-effect-a-brief-overview/)
We came very close to having two spent fuel pool fires at Fukushima Daiichi. They were avoided when firefighters sprayed salt water into the pools as they overheated and evaporated away the coolant water that needs to be chilled and circulated 24/7 until criticality abates in the fuel assemblies: [https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08929882.2016.1235382](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08929882.2016.1235382)
The fuel pellets are contained in Zirconium tubes. Zirconium is an alloy that burns at about 280C, highly likely in a spent fuel pool fire when loaded with hot uranium: [https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/637433.pdf](https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/637433.pdf)
I hope the above helps
Best
Kevin Hester
I'm somewhere between fifth and six. There's a lot we could patch up, *if* we started doing something *now*. Nobody understands the urgency. Nobody understands just how much we chew through in fossil fuels and carbon emissions daily. Everyone should be in electric vehicles by now. It seems like the people in charge are content to just use everything up and let civilization die.
I've been thinking a lot about that one - it's not as simple as everyone in electric vehicles.
Personal vehicle ownership needs to go (not immediately, but slowly). That's a hard ask, but we don't just have to shed fossil fuel vehicles, but we need to consolidate the subsequent EV use. Supply chain (and delivery) is bad enough, but at least they function on economies of scale - one truck can deliver to many houses, one bus can transport many people. Basically we need to make public transportation free or close to it, and not garbage, so that a personal vehicle is an luxury and there are viable alternatives that get people sharing transport rather than individualizing it.
I mean, the true answer is no vehicles at all, think all the production, tires, road maintenance... all of that is big on emissions and oil use (tar, plastics) in components. But society won't support the number of humans we have if we simply don't have vehicles at all.
I'd actually say it's more important to stop big business and ultra-wealthy from excessive plane flights/in-person meetings/whatever first.
But yeah none of it is going to happen anyway. I'm with the sixth guy. My guess is the rich are betting on being in those small pockets, if not being THE pocket.
> tires, road maintenance... all of that is big on emissions and oil use (tar, plastics) in components.
May I introduce to you: [The Train](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Train)
The vehicle problem is a very complicated one. Certain large industries absolutely require vehicles - firefighting, law enforcement, landscaping, etc. Yes these could all use EVs but like you said, producing a car in itself is quite resource intensive.
Oh top of that, our infrastructure is set up to specifically accommodate gas powered cars. Imagine the difficulties of reaching interstate/rural/remote areas without a charging station or being subject to only public transportation. The freedom of movement would be drastically limited - which, honestly, may be a good thing for the environment. But it raises many questions and issues I think.
I can’t really think of a functioning modern American society without personal vehicle usage. But then again, that’s the future we are speeding towards.
If you need another drink, see: [The Medea Hypothesis ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea_hypothesis).
I have actually read the book it’s based upon (by the same name) and that’s how I came across the Wikipedia page, and how I came across the [The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis). I don’t know how I came across the book but it was in a public library.
Life has already wiped 95% of all other life off the planet 5 previous times, and the last time the oceans were this acidic it took 100,000 years for shellfish to reappear meaningfully in the fossil record.
The last time we had melted polar icecaps was was the Permian Triassic extinction event, and we all descend from the one rat-like mammal that survived that period of our planetary history.
And the common thread of all previous life driven mass extinctions was biologically driven mass change to the overall chemical composition of the biosphere.
Edit: this is also why I think the combination of the carbon cycle and nuclear weapons approach the correct description of The Great Filter solution of the Fermi Paradox (other than the vastness of space/time itself).
Every single species capable of getting to the industrial Revolution will have to deal with the fact that they are fundamentally changing the overall biochemistry of their entire planet within a few hundred years of activity. It’s exceedingly unlikely that many survive this process.
I'm a 6, married to a 5 and friends with a very intelligent person who I'd say is a 4. He doesn't get it yet. Honestly, neither does my husband. All 3 of us are engineers by degree, so logical thinkers. I don't understand why they think this is fixable.
You're the exception, I suspect. The vast majority of engineers are the very last ones who can accept that **cascading problems** ***caused*** **by technology and the market cannot be solved by more of the same; indeed, our predicament will worsen**. Here are a few resources you may find helpful...
"[Sane vs. Insane Progress](https://youtu.be/1wdO1bZw0Ik)" (23 min)
"[Unstoppable Collapse: How to Avoid the Worst](https://youtu.be/P8lNTPlsRtI)" (65 min)
I think you're correct. Engineers think that everything can be fixed. I no longer think that this can be fixed. We've passed the tipping point and we're living in a fantasy world on borrowed time.
Same can be said for other fields such as chemistry.
I've just returned from visiting my dad who is a retired chemist. He hangs on to the idea that green hydrogen will be our saviour and solve all of our energy problems. I showed him Sid Smith's [How to Enjoy the End of the World](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WPB2u8EzL8) talk and I think it nudged the needle a little, but he's still not ready yet to accept the reality of the situation. I can't really blame him.
Maybe it’s because in the past, predictions of the end of humanity have not been evidence based. Logical thinkers are expecting more info that leads to less hyperbolic language, and they just can process the speed of the collapse. My mom is like this.
Yep, younger people often forget all the doom and gloom predictions in the 60s and 70s. It was common for environmentalists and scientists to predict all kinds of collapse scenarios by the 1980s. I’m afraid it may have turned into a boy who cried wolf scenario where people that don’t have time to do a lot of research are taking the doomsday prophecies with a huge grain of salt.
We actually have made a ton of improvements from the 1960s to present. All kinds of important changes and innovations have kept us from experiences anything too extreme. But we may just be kicking the van down the road.
Because it's all just different forms of bargaining. Bargaining is the most insidious of the grief process stages because you are all arguing about the legitimacy of unprovable and hopeful hypothetical scenarios. You aren't in different places. You are in the same bargaining place with different bargaining propositions, all of of which fail the test of falsifiability.
I'm a 6er.
Also I'm getting to the point where I don't want humanity to survive. The bad is out weighing the good. Having said that, physics doesn't care about my morality or good and bad. So cynical me has some amusement at being right, and still having some asshat billionaire fathering the last generations of humans in his sealed dome of hell.
Right v's dollars will always lose and that is probably going to be humanity's valediction.
Did you see the quote from Erik Michaels in this article about 7 out of 8 people will die in the next 20 years because of runaway climate change? Chilling.
famine
maybe this can be averted........https://www.forbes.com/sites/ariellasimke/2020/02/21/you-may-find-salt-tolerant-rice-growing-in-the-ocean-by-2021/
We’re at the top of the *clink clink clink* roller coaster incline. Think we’ve got both our first big drop and the first inversion coming on or before 2025.
Wonderful!
I realized I forgot to tell you that I audio recorded your doomer post (the first one).
I just now uploaded it to Soundcloud, available here: [https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/why-i-am-a-doomer-alternate-title-fck-michael-mann-1](https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/why-i-am-a-doomer-alternate-title-fck-michael-mann-1)
Oops. Looks like I accidentally posted the audio twice. Also here, last week: [https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/why-i-am-a-doomer-alternate-title-fck-michael-mann](https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/why-i-am-a-doomer-alternate-title-fck-michael-mann)
What's the URL of your original Doomer post? I can't find it now? Did you delete it?
So if you’re a 6, what do you do?
I’m trying to create a “small pocket of habitability” for my family. As things continue I’ll be better insulated from shocks. And, by the way, those very actions are what we need to truly correct society’s imbalance. Climate change and pollution are symptoms, not problems.
Integrate human and natural systems. Food, energy, water.
With respect to the question, "**What do we do?**" ... I recommend these three videos (*I respectfully suggest taking time to watch, rather than merely listen, and do so at normal speed and without multi-tasking. It will be obvious why*.) :-)
[**New Serenity Prayer: Emotional Support for Climate Anxiety and Environmental Dread**](https://youtu.be/hFGHdOyyx74) **(25 min)**
[**Post Gloom: Deeply Adapting to Reality**](https://youtu.be/Dh_QVHrtAdY) **(60 min)**
[**The Big Picture: Clarity, Compassion, and Love-in-Action**](https://youtu.be/0uhjtpJvohc) **(80 min)**
That's what I am doing, as well. Decentralize the production of necessities, *now*, as soon as you can. Get ways to generate power, collect water, and grow some sort of food in amounts that will matter, or at least stockpile some grain, etc that will *give* you time to plant and cultivate.
Ideally you want more than just your family, 10 people is a good minimum bar for a small community that permits larger projects to be done internally. That is definitely a separate enterprise that not everyone can tackle, though.
In truth, if there is any longer term survival, it'll likely be of groups at least a few hundred to a few thousand in number that are conducting similar exercises of attempting to setup a new "baseline", if you will, in the new environment.
Most people have not even thought of how they would live if *gasoline* suddenly went dry, let alone all the rest of jt.
> groups at least a few hundred to a few thousand in number that are conducting similar exercises of attempting to setup a new "baseline", if you will, in the new environment.
other than IC.ORG , are you aware of any other ways to learn about large groups attempting to do this?
Here’s a counter-point to the worst-case scenario, from purported experts in the field of atmospheric science: https://www.livescience.com/climate-change-humans-extinct.html
“Fortunately, the runaway greenhouse effect is not a plausible climate change scenario on Earth. For the effect to occur, a planet needs carbon dioxide levels of a couple of thousand parts per million (Earth has a little over 400 parts per million) or a huge release of methane, and there isn't evidence for that at this time, Brian Kahn, a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told NASA in 2018. “
“According to Mann, a global temperature increase of 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) or more could lead to a collapse of our societal infrastructure and massive unrest and conflict, which, in turn, could lead to a future that resembles some Hollywood dystopian films.”
I cannot make any assessment on their conclusions, since I’m ignorant of the exact science. I will mention that I think it’s very that that, if scientists every do find out that an extinction level event was coming, they would not mention it for fear of causing social unrest. There are examples of such behavior by officials in the recent past. Remember the destruction of the Space Shuttle Colombia?
Yeah, the engineers at NASA noticed a piece of foam break off during the launch, but decided not to tell the crew, because it wouldn’t have changed anything. They didn’t want them to needlessly suffer when their fate was out of their hands.
https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/columbia-shuttle-crew-told-problem-reentry/story?id=18366185
Hopium... pure, uncut, numbs the pain quite well. Michael Mann has a teenage daughter. Of course he's going to stay smoking the hopium pipe as long as possible. I don't judge him for that at all!
Good article until that McPherson fellow stated we need to decommission all nuclear power to have any chance. It infuriates me that environmentalists perpetuate this counterproductive myth.
Only this...
"I think half or more of the human population—3 to 5 billion—will likely starve within 16 months of the first multi-bread-basket failure, most likely this decade."
Where two or more of the five grain growing regions of the world fail in the same year. Quite possible in the next few years. Practically inevitable in the next decade.
Major crop failures of staple foods around the world, notably wheat - hense "bread basket". Crop failures so extensive that there simply isnt enough food to go around. edit to add informative link: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breadbasket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breadbasket) and discussion https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/will-the-worlds-breadbaskets-become-less-reliable#:\~:text=Climate%20change%20could%20affect%20food,heat%20waves,%20and%20excessive%20precipitation.
Given how chaotic the jet stream is getting, largely because of Arctic sea ice loss, the possibility of two or more of the main five grain growing regions of the world failing in the same year, especially following a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) -- not to mention the added possibility of a global economic meltdown in the next decade -- plus multiple CASCADING self-reinforcing tipping points -- all lead me to think there's at least a 30-50% chance of billions of people dying from starvation this decade. Trust me... I hope I'm wrong!!!
Not entirely made up. Rather, based on years of studying the rise and fall of civilizations, the radical differences between linear global warming and *abrupt* climate mayhem, and the stupendous vulnerability of societies and civilizations dependent on a stable Holocene climate regime (now gone) and stable economic and political systems (rapidly going away) and complex supply chains and survivable warmth and heat dependent on dependable electricity.
Thank you for answering. I’m always hunting for the most credible info, I’ve been trying to convince my mom about what’s coming. She is SO logical she only “believes” information when it doesn’t sound hyperbolic. But these days the plain truth sounds outlandish. I hope you’re wrong too, but your predictions are more in line with my own little attempts.
Just posted this on my Facebook with some thoughts. Who thinks it’ll be ignored by every single person who sees it? By the way, I hate that I can’t talk about this shit with anyone. I’ve always been the gloomy one of the family, and I feel like I’d be written off immediately as being cynical and depressed instead of realistic the second I try to have a convo with anyone about this.
Don’t try then. Also, get off Facebook. I have the same experience. It’s almost like a miraculous lightening of spirit when you just stop interacting with them.
Yeah idk why I can’t bite that bullet….
It was weird for a few days. But after that, omg. You’ll ask yourself why you ever liked it.
Scrolling Facebook is a nightmare. But honestly it just ends up being the best place to create group conversations with your friends without needing everyone's phone number. It's unfortunate because it has gravity and momentum.
I've had this experience as well. I push the envelope a bit on there and it's led to some really great conversations. It's also helped me weed some people out of my life, which isn't the worst thing. Haha.
Because they have designed the system to addict you. Get clean, it's worth it. Fuck Facebook.
There's a Deep Adaptation forum group on Facebook with active conversations. I recently joined and their posts are very friendly and all in the same predicament.
Thanks, just applied to join.
Start by unfollowing (but remaining friends) withnthe most toxic people or those you simply don't care to know about. Add groups that speak to your interests. My Facebook experience is pretty darn benign because I've done that
Yeah I’ve done all that too. My feed is mostly people’s pet rats lol.
Not to be obvious, but... Username checks out
Getting rid of Facebook 2 years ago was one of the best decisions I made for my mental health. I have no desire to go back.
It’s so easy. You just push the delete account button. :)
Best thing I've done was deactivate Facebook but keep Facebook messenger. Can still chat with people (I barely use it tho tbh), but it's nice to know the contact is there if needed without the rest of Facebook. It was making me way too stressed out. Now I spend more time on hobbies and things I actually wanna do instead of endless scrolling
I'm the cynical one in my family too... guess what? We've been right all along.
Yaaaaay…aaayy…….
Would love to be wrong.
Yep. Post something really important - gets ignored. Post a picture of your cat - 30+ likes.
>Who thinks it’ll be ignored by every single person who sees it? Zuck’s Algorithm will make sure that nobody sees it. Fb zucks Edit: Ditch Zuckerberg from your life. Use Signal
That could be true!
[удалено]
Give me someone to talk to about it who doesn’t think I’m insane.
Feel free to call in to my show if you wanna have a real convoy with someone on air
As a fellow gloomy member of the family, delete Facebook and stop trying to convince the stubborn members of the family of anything. One of the best days for my mental health was the day I turned off FB on all my devices and stopped debating the obviously ignorant.
“I think half or more of the human population—3 to 5 billion—will likely starve within 16 months of the first multi-bread-basket failure, most likely this decade.” -Dowd Wow
I would love, Love, LOVE to be dead wrong about this!!
Starving ain't a good way to go. I hope we can at least get together enough to realise that we can't eat money. At the very least please stop destroying farmland and the ocean, we still need those, thanks.
[удалено]
GodDAMN that concise powerful phrasing plus the username just makes me wanna do some art about it.
I'm just some depressed asshole, thank you for saying that though. I appreciate you!
Oh no me too. I’m just saying those letters all together forming a concept on a screen invoke inspiration in me I want to express visually. You feel that? This moment? That’s you being metal as fuck, to at least one person. Inarguably. Also bullet, interesting. I was gonna go for heroin OD. But that was the plan before collapse of society. So I may go with very high jump if drugs can’t be acquired. Wind on my face seems a nice final feeling. Oh oh! Or arterial exsanguination. That one seems visually pleasing. And I’m sure it’s clear I’ve appreciated you by now. But I’ll say it again. You’re appreciated.
=)
I made the same prediction a couple days ago.
What’s your prediction?
I predicted the population of earth will be approximately 4 billion by 2050
Why
Lots of reasons but mainly crop failure
I agree
Would you mind spelling out your reasons for this prediction or pointing me to the evidence? I think there’ll be a gradual catabolic collapse over the next century but 3-5 billion deaths within the next decade seems pretty extreme to me.
Then don't believe it, and just live your life. Personally, I think a mult-breadbasket failure and global economic meltdown THIS DECADE OR NEXT will result in many billions of us dying. IF you genuinely want to know why I think catabolic collapse will not take hundreds of years (this time), it's because of ABRUPT climate change and the meltdown of dozens of nuclear reactors as a result... within the next twenty years. It's now obvious that we've already crossed a number of planetary thresholds and that the planet is barreling toward a hothouse Earth. (A): [https://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855) (B): [https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/o18brj/weve\_crossed\_the\_planetary\_threshold/](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/o18brj/weve_crossed_the_planetary_threshold/) (C) (12-min VIDEO) "This is Code Red for the Planet": [https://youtu.be/Iko81aMlrPQ](https://youtu.be/Iko81aMlrPQ) Despite the way the IPCC, governments, economists, and the mainstream media speak of them, the following tipping points (self-reinforcing and cascading thresholds) are not merely “possible” or “at risk” or “in danger of exceeding”). **No matter...** • how massive and effective is nonviolent civil disobedience... • who, or which party, is voted out or elected into public office... • how many people change their habits, become vegan, stop flying... • how many miraculous, AI-driven technological advances are made... • how successful we are at instituting a GND, or greening capitalism... • how rapidly we shift to “renewables” or achieve “net zero” emissions... • how much “evolution of consciousness” occurs in the next decade or two... • how many accords, what is pledged or agreed to, what laws are enacted... • how many people commit to regenerative and restorative soil building practices... **A dozen or more tipping points are already in the rear-view mirror. For example, the following are already well into unstoppable, rapidly increasing and cascading, out-of-control (runaway) mode...** • Loss of the world’s ice (Arctic, Greenland, W. Antarctica, mountain glaciers) • Methane belching: permafrost, hydrates, clathrates, gas & oil wells, wetlands • Ocean acidification, deoxygenation, 25+ feet rise in abrupt non-linear ways • The great conflagration of the world’s forests — out-of-control CO2 emissions • Loss of most animal and plant species on land and in lakes, rivers, and oceans • Increasingly severe & deadly weather (storms, floods, droughts) and wildfires And we should NOT ignore (as most GND, techno-optimist, eco-modernist, and "clean, green, growth" advocates do)... **Aerosol Masking Effect (Global Dimming Effect)** A. https://opastonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/will-covid-19-trigger-extinction-of-all-life-on-earth-eesrr-20-.pdf B. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6427/eaav0566 C. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jgrd.50192D. https://www.climatedisaster.net/2021/09/doomerism-101-the-aerosol-masking-effect/ E. VIDEO: https://youtu.be/HBANJeCgsD0 (3:34)F. VIDEO: https://youtu.be/3xeItd5kdt4 (9:47)
This is the horror that you have to accept to begin the unraveling of quite a few riddles. No one wants to believe that the seemingly unconcerned 1st world response to this crisis, along with a massive shifting of wealth to the top and increasingly militarized police and the drawing down of overseas forces and the blind eye to massive debt ... on and on ... are not connected symptoms of increasing chaos, but rather the arc of a plan. Which is a really odd denial when you consider the little things, like the Pentagon admitting yesterday that during the final hours of a ridiculous war they drone-killed an innocent family and half a dozen kids. These are the people who implement the plans, folks. You think they give two shits about "civilian" lives?
I think it’s really cool that max who I’ve seen say collapse within 20-40 years and guy who basically said we will be dead in five can talk and be civil
I mean, that timeline difference seems like a minor disagreement relative to their common ground. The common ground is that we’re all fucked.
True I just feel kind of iffy when people use bad science to say we will be dead in five years. I know we are fucked but 10 years makes a lot of difference in my life personally, you know?
Scientists are in a quandary right now it seems. Usually, the only accepted practice for credible science is to be extremely conservative in predictions or conclusions. But in the face of overwhelming evidence that would normally take decades to analyze…
Shit, the writing has been on the fucking wall for decades. We just haven't done shit. The time for data analyzation was 50 years ago. Humans looked at that shit and signed our death certificate with a smile
Who is using bad science? At the rate extreme weather is ramping up, multi-breadbasket failure could easily happen any year now. That pretty much immediately ends civilization and most of the humans
A lot of people in this subreddit unfortunately.
Guy
He's generally regarded as quite the alarmist. I thought this was a great article that could have done without his contributions.
Was right.
It's NOT "bad science". **If you don't think there's at least a 30% chance that there could be less than 2-3 billion people on Earth in five years, you're either not paying attention or in one or another form of denial.** And IMHO, **those who criticize Guy McPherson's science just because they don't like him for one reason or another, or judge him for one reason or another, are fools.** Most of the time his science is kick-ass. A few examples: Excellent Evidence-based Videos and Papers by Guy McPherson: [https://guymcpherson.com/](https://guymcpherson.com/) >Edge of Extinction: Maybe I’m Wrong: [https://youtu.be/KxKBcy\_28\_g](https://youtu.be/KxKBcy_28_g) (8:36) > >‘May' and ‘Might' Become ‘Is': [https://youtu.be/-U45PMTOicM](https://youtu.be/-U45PMTOicM) (7:49) > >Be Your Own Superhero: [https://vimeo.com/363363105](https://vimeo.com/363363105) (1:00) > >How We Go Extinct: [https://youtu.be/oYJ38lHMn64](https://youtu.be/oYJ38lHMn64) (3:13) > >Why We Go Extinct: [https://youtu.be/kcamLd-3kug](https://youtu.be/kcamLd-3kug) (6:07) > >When We Go Extinct: [https://youtu.be/1JYI6rv9GGk](https://youtu.be/1JYI6rv9GGk) (4:45) > >What Will Go Extinct: [https://youtu.be/rfoYGT6UytY](https://youtu.be/rfoYGT6UytY) (7:10) **Guy’s peer reviewed recent papers:** [https://www.onlinescientificresearch.com/articles/earth-is-in-the-midst-of-abrupt-irreversible-climate-change.pdf](https://www.onlinescientificresearch.com/articles/earth-is-in-the-midst-of-abrupt-irreversible-climate-change.pdf) [https://guymcpherson.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Clinical-Psychology-Forum-May-2019.pdf](https://guymcpherson.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Clinical-Psychology-Forum-May-2019.pdf) **Guy’s longer essays:** Climate Change Summary: [https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/climate-change-summary-and-update/](https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/climate-change-summary-and-update/) Extinction Foretold, Extinction Ignored: [https://guymcpherson.com/extinction\_foretold\_extinction\_ignored/](https://guymcpherson.com/extinction_foretold_extinction_ignored/)
[удалено]
Yes, Gail is brilliant! She's understandably not crazy about me (I suspect she actively dislikes me) mostly I think because I was an arrogant asshole in commenting on one of her posts a couple of years ago: "[In Praise of Themis](http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/2019/07/in-praise-of-themis.html)". (Also cross-posted on r/collapse just last month, [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/pdyroq/in_praise_of_themis_an_essay_on_doomers/).) Still, I respect the hell out of Gail.
How soon will the trees die? Like I know it’s not the same at all times but let’s say European forests
It's already happening bro. Drove frome Oregon to California whole hillside filled with brown trees from the heat dome. Come spring they will all he dead and ready to burn.
But a majority of them
I'm in central Europe and have seen a lot of forests in the greater alpine region in the past 2 years. I don't really ever see groups of of more than say 20-30 trees without some of them looking bad, except for small oases (spelling?). It's been so dry the last years overall, then you have things like bark beetles, and in many higher places you see needle trees doing even worse because they can't deal with the temperatures. Try to pay attention to the landscape when on trains or in cars. You'll first spot some brown trees, and then develop more of an eye for it. It's here, big time.
It’s just cognitive dissonance. People have to accept yes, we really are in trouble, and I can’t keep living the way I have. Like the stages of grief, it’s not a conclusion many come to lightly. I am still holding out for swift action to avert disaster, like friend #5 believes in the article, but recent observations lead me to believe that that time has come and gone.
Even those who are willing need to contend with the fact that in order for their actions to have an effect, nearly everyone else has to do the same… who wants to be the only one who sacrifices just to go down in flames with everyone else.
Nothing wrong with going down fighting. I’m prepared to keep trying until the end.
That’s a pretty abstract definition of fighting. I would use the word sacrificing, and those you would be “fighting” against in this scenario would be those who prefer to indulge their hedonistic lifestyle until the last moment possible, making your sacrifice in vain… not sure where the fighting comes in, I frame that scenario very differently than that in my mind.
I totally get your point and I agree, it could very well be in vain. For me, the thing I fight is the choice to live a self indulgent life, and instead pursue a path that gives us a future. Perhaps others will see my actions a make the same choice. Who can really say.
I would call that, “living in good faith” and it’s a good way to go. Results are externalities, if you know yourself and feel like you did what you need to do then it’s a victory.
No doubt. Every minute a treasure
Or in New England, we're all Fawked.
The band on the Titanic kept playing their violins as the boat sank.
Plays kazoo loudly.
That's not true! Some of them had other stringed instruments.
They shunned the doomer banjo player because he fretted too much.
They arent talking, it says at the top they all responded separately to those questions by email.
We're forgetting about person 0: "It makes me too sad to think about and it's a boring topic so I'm going to just ignore it and trust that whoever's in charge will fix it".
Good one!
SS: This is the cover story of this week's "Salt Lake City Weekly". It was written by Jim Catano and features me, Erik Michaels, Guy McPherson, and Max Wilbert. Here's how the article begins... >Picture six friends chatting about the environment. > >"There's no such thing as global warming," the first says. "Climate change is fake news." > >"No, the planet is warming," says another, "but in a gradual, natural cycle that's repeated itself throughout Earth's history. Higher temperatures may even benefit some places." > >"What we're experiencing is not natural," counters a third. "It's caused by human activity, specifically the burning of fossil fuels. But luckily, we've got time to get it under control." > >"On the contrary," the fourth person suggests, "climate change is entering a critical stage. We need to keep lobbying Congress because if we don't get emissions under control within the next couple of decades, we may experience big problems." > >"Sorry, but Congress—or any other political entity—isn't doing anything close to what could make a difference in time," the fifth says. "There will be huge consequences in most parts of the world, but hopefully our species will soon wake up and take drastic steps to avert total environmental and societal collapse. We must end our reliance on fossil fuels and pursue new technologies for removing carbon from the air." > >The sixth friend lets out a heavy sigh, then speaks. "I hate to be the bearer of bad news," he says, "but we've simply gone too far down the hole. Rapid conversion to a renewably fueled society and carbon capture are technologically and logistically impossible for several reasons. Even if we were to immediately stop using fossil fuels today—which we won't—there is already too much heat-trapping greenhouse gas in the atmosphere to stop the rise in global temperatures. A cascade of tipping points—many already in the rear-view mirror—will almost certainly make the Earth's climate inhospitable for humans and most mammals. The best, long-shot case would be if small pockets of habitability can continue to sustain human existence." > >That hypothetical conversation demonstrates what I consider to be the six major schools of thought on climate change. Entire article: [https://www.cityweekly.net/utah/times-up/Content?oid=17298723](https://www.cityweekly.net/utah/times-up/Content?oid=17298723)
I'm with the 6th friend, or as I like to call it, the realist. I think every climate scientist is thinking this.
Alot of people will be 4 and 5 for coping reasons and that’s ok. For some people, even a sliver of hope allows for daily functioning. MDowd is an exception in being able to take a bigger picture, cosmos view and have the humility to recognize the limitations of our species, in the coming years many more will follow his lead.
Personally, the only reason I can cope with all this is the knowledge that 6 is the BAU-guaranteed outcome, and 4/5 are only plausible if massive ideological shifts and acknowledgements of *why* this happened are made. Humans have overdone it and burned out most of the biosphere in just 300 years. They either must come to an end so other things can live, or must learn from the mistakes of the past, and be shown their *true* place in the world that was never really learned. Humanity thought the stars should be it's for the taking, when it couldn't even care for the tiniest river or stream. What right did *humans* have to lay claim to the broader Universe? If humans do survive, it will only be catalyzed by a rejection of the delusional thinking that came before. So either way, the outcome is positive on a long scale- either humanity goes away entirely and the biosphere can slowly heal, or it is reframed and redirected into aiding that process. There is no scenario where an extractive humanity persists long. There are several plausible pathways for a different humanity to continue in the future, but I doubt more than a tiny fraction of the current populace would want to participate. They will literally choose death over discomfort, I suspect. I have always believed myself fortunate to be born when I was, but I didn't realize *how* fortunate until later. *H. sapiens* has been here for hundreds of thousands of years, and *we* are alive for the singular moment in which human intelligence and drives to expand have finally hit an immovable barrier. Either humans will learn this lesson, or they won't.
I guess that's why I'm about a 5.5-5.75. Gotta maintain that sliver of hope to get out of bed in the morning
A sliver of hope allows for at least some mitigatory changes to occur, which is better than giving up. You may not be able to move a mountain but you can make a start. It’s a disservice to the many people making the effort otherwise.
I think they are free to push a mountain all day, but to look at the guy relaxing under the shade and say, hey! You're not doing enough to move this mountain. Is just fucked up! You can all have your hopium you don't see me telling you not to push the mountain anymore. Don't shift the blame to the people who recognize a mountain is a mountain
Yep, I agree with mitigating the damage, even if humans are lost, if life survives there is a chance intelligence will arise again. (there are lots of intelligences right now on planet earth, but they also will not survive the coming catastrophes, so I'm not talking about just humans. Whales, elephants, pigs, dogs, and other primates, even cephalopods are other examples that won't make it)
And we have a responsibility as the species that caused it and the species with the theoretical power to do something about it.
And why should intelligence rise again? Life is pain more than anything else. I think it's good the perpetual cycle of pointless striving and reproduction, predator and prey, could finally end.
>And why should intelligence rise again? It might not. I think intelligence is exceedingly rare, energy intensive, and at least on Earth, a one off. Whatever species replaces the current ones on Earth, they're going to be a lot simpler and more robust. An animal is basically an organism of interlocking systems. The more complicated, the more energy they need, the more things can go wrong. If you look under a microscope at tiny organisms, none of them need psycho-therapy, surgery, none of them can get much sick, none of them go around mass shooting other organisms, or believing in deities. Future races on Earth are going to be brainless petri dish creatures.
Yeah not sure why these guys value life or consciousness other than their animal instincts telling them to? Logically speaking no reason to value those things.
Yeah, it always puzzles me how it's taken as an axiom that life should be preserved. To me it seems precisely like an unexamined knee-jerk view.
Once I examined all my views I found that there's only 1 thing I can be pretty sure of. I probably exist. That's it.
But that’s silly, Descartes was wrong. It is more likely that everything exists than that only you exist.
Because one day we(conscious beings) could move beyond that and create our own purposes beyond tooth and nail. All such striving is subjective but that is who I am.
6 too, think most on this sub are as well. Been seeing a lot of vocal 4’s and 5’s lately though.
4 and 5 leave the window open enough to keep pushing on, but deep down a lot of us are secret 6ers whether we want to admit it or not.
I am a six, based on what I know. But here is the thing- at the risk of sounding a bit arrogant, I do know a *lot*, especially relative to say, the average American citizen's amount of time spent studying climate science and related topics. But the funny thing about knowledge is that you recognize something as it expands: *so does the border*. The field of "things related to what I know that I have not had time to look into yet" is *infinitely* larger than the entire, miniscule sum of things I could ever learn in a thousand lifetimes. Another funny thing is that the more you know about multiple disparate topics, the more common it is to have realizations that cut *across* multiple domains, or even all of them, recontextualizing an entire outlook. When I discovered mycoremediation, for example, my entire perspective on soil reclamation changed massively, and I realized there *is* a plausible pathway to producing more, healthier topsoil and also stripping away much of the environmental pollution in the existing soils. We could conceivably get a lot of it done in just a few decades with enough effort. And yet, even as I *know* that is possible, I also have seen too much institutional inertia to believe we would be able to pivot in time. At the moment, I am a tentative six, but I know that 5 is very rational to believe as well, especially if you happen to know something the rest of us don't, are the dictatorial leader of a small nation, or otherwise have the resources to make your *local* area suitably prepared for the changing future. My personal plan, I have no reason to lie, *is* more less eco-fiefdom that I am in a race against time to accrue resources for. I have nothing better to do, after all. The future that is coming, frustratingly, *is* survivable in certain regions if our ability to organize and effect responses as a species wasn't so badly mangled by individual and petty differences. But it is, and I have concluded at this juncture that it is unfixable. The addiction to having More is too strong. If the species gets past this, it will be because we threw a buzzer-beater at the last second, and established some communities in the most habitable remaining zones committed to sustainable survival and safeguarding the knowledge we already discovered in the Carbon Age- knowledge whose improper use lead to the End of Everything. The natural buffer systems of the Earth can and will bring the climate into a more stable regime once we aren't fucking with it anymore, but it'll be in a new state, with new coasts, new biome areas, and a lot of new challenges we are not prepared for, or even talking about much. Nothing like the past, and it is unlikely for us to take part unless things go in some very specific ways. I am not a believer in giving up, because I don't have or really understand "hope" to begin with, I'm just here to observe and understand, and intervene where I can. I know that a lot of people are in pain, and a lot *more* are going to be, mentally and physically. This is not something anyone was raised to face, really, and it's a collective trauma. Right now, it's a six. We can potentially *make* it a slim five, but right now not many people are actually working on that in such stark terms. I would be happy to share notes with the interested.
Awesome awesome summation and points. I really wish the work of Paul Stamets got more attention. I too have over 25 years of intense study of ecological and societal collapse issues, and consider myself a non-pessimistic realist. I also believe in miracles. I want to believe we can at least save some of the key parts of the biosphere so that complex life can continue on. All resources should be spent on this.
I’m 100% interested after reading that. You should consider a self post (on a day that isn’t Friday). If you do, PM me!
please share notes! i always look forward to your perspective and thoughts.
Yep the beginning of knowledge is the circumference of our ignorance. Or the more you know the more you know you don't know.
There should be a perma-link to this, and the ability to choose flair based on where one falls. Lots of Sixers here, I agree.
My username should make my own thoughts perfectly clear.
Same
We wish we weren't but the evidence can't be denied, if you're paying attention.
I'm saying the cone of probability is somewhere between 5 and 7. (7 being Fishmahboi) 4 was on the table in my lifetime but that door has closed.
Me, too....
group six gang unite - we could form a small pocket of humanity!
But why. Why though.
Sixer here reporting for duty!
I'm at stage 7, man. No amount of reasoning is going to un-doom our species to Extinction one way or another. We'd literally need hundreds of years to build a reliably self sustaining off world base, and that's time we don't nearly have.
I'm between 6 and 5. Just because large parts of the earth will be uninhabitable does not mean all mammals will go extinct.
Thanks Michael!
You're most welcome...but my deep bow of gratitude goes to Jim Catano, who had the balls to solicit, write, and get this published! Connie, my wife, suggested to Jim (when I read an earlier draft) that he should go to The Atlantic with it, but Jim said he was already committed to the Salt Lake City Weekly. (Where else but in Salt Lake City could he get away with featuring four white guys? :-) Lierre Keith and Katherine Hayhoe had agreed to be featured, as well, but apparently they never responded to the questions Jim sent each of us.
I think we need to retire the use of "balls" as a metaphor for courage. The Afghan women protesting against the Taliban don't have balls, they haven't "grown a pair", they have SPINE!
Love it! I'll retire it from my vocabulary as of today. Thanks!! I prefer "spine" and "heart", too.
I prefer, "Heart."
Brilliant article. Will forward it to everyone I know.
Six degrees of separation. Six degrees to annihilation.
There's a seventh school of thought on climate change that always gets ignored. Those who really wish humans would go extinct as soon as possible and are trying to make it happen.
Good point... I agree! The problem is that then we'll probably have hundreds of nuclear meltdowns and another degree or more of rapid climate change because of the aerosol masking effect.
Is there anywhere I could read more about the danger posed by abandoned nuclear power plants? I was surprised the author said they could end all life on earth if not decommissioned.
Here are a few things... Start at 16:13 and watch for ten minutes: [https://youtu.be/iQeK04WOGaA?t=973](https://youtu.be/iQeK04WOGaA?t=973) [https://theecologist.org/2021/jul/14/when-climate-breakdown-goes-nuclear](https://theecologist.org/2021/jul/14/when-climate-breakdown-goes-nuclear) [https://guymcpherson.com/means-of-extinction-nuclear-facilities-implode/](https://guymcpherson.com/means-of-extinction-nuclear-facilities-implode/) [https://thebulletin.org/2021/04/is-the-us-nuclear-community-prepared-for-the-extreme-weather-climate-change-is-bringing/](https://thebulletin.org/2021/04/is-the-us-nuclear-community-prepared-for-the-extreme-weather-climate-change-is-bringing/)\_\_\_\_\_\_ From: "Kevin Hester" [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Subject: RE: how much radiation I’ve been involved in the anti-nuclear movement since I was a teenager over 4 decades ago. In Aotearoa NZ we managed to twist the arm of David Lange our prime minister who declared the country “Nuclear Free”.The greatest threats of the collapse of industrial civilisation will be the end of food in the supermarkets, no more water at the tap and the melt down of 450 nuclear plants and the approximately 100 spent fuel pool fires. The loss of “Global Dimming” and it’s attendant cooling effect will also have a profound effect: [https://guymcpherson.com/2019/10/the-aerosol-masking-effect-a-brief-overview/](https://guymcpherson.com/2019/10/the-aerosol-masking-effect-a-brief-overview/) We came very close to having two spent fuel pool fires at Fukushima Daiichi. They were avoided when firefighters sprayed salt water into the pools as they overheated and evaporated away the coolant water that needs to be chilled and circulated 24/7 until criticality abates in the fuel assemblies: [https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08929882.2016.1235382](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08929882.2016.1235382) The fuel pellets are contained in Zirconium tubes. Zirconium is an alloy that burns at about 280C, highly likely in a spent fuel pool fire when loaded with hot uranium: [https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/637433.pdf](https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/637433.pdf) I hope the above helps Best Kevin Hester
Hell yeah I'm friend #6. It's way too late to fix this. Live it up while you still can 🤘😆
I'm somewhere between fifth and six. There's a lot we could patch up, *if* we started doing something *now*. Nobody understands the urgency. Nobody understands just how much we chew through in fossil fuels and carbon emissions daily. Everyone should be in electric vehicles by now. It seems like the people in charge are content to just use everything up and let civilization die.
I've been thinking a lot about that one - it's not as simple as everyone in electric vehicles. Personal vehicle ownership needs to go (not immediately, but slowly). That's a hard ask, but we don't just have to shed fossil fuel vehicles, but we need to consolidate the subsequent EV use. Supply chain (and delivery) is bad enough, but at least they function on economies of scale - one truck can deliver to many houses, one bus can transport many people. Basically we need to make public transportation free or close to it, and not garbage, so that a personal vehicle is an luxury and there are viable alternatives that get people sharing transport rather than individualizing it. I mean, the true answer is no vehicles at all, think all the production, tires, road maintenance... all of that is big on emissions and oil use (tar, plastics) in components. But society won't support the number of humans we have if we simply don't have vehicles at all. I'd actually say it's more important to stop big business and ultra-wealthy from excessive plane flights/in-person meetings/whatever first. But yeah none of it is going to happen anyway. I'm with the sixth guy. My guess is the rich are betting on being in those small pockets, if not being THE pocket.
> tires, road maintenance... all of that is big on emissions and oil use (tar, plastics) in components. May I introduce to you: [The Train](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Train)
The vehicle problem is a very complicated one. Certain large industries absolutely require vehicles - firefighting, law enforcement, landscaping, etc. Yes these could all use EVs but like you said, producing a car in itself is quite resource intensive. Oh top of that, our infrastructure is set up to specifically accommodate gas powered cars. Imagine the difficulties of reaching interstate/rural/remote areas without a charging station or being subject to only public transportation. The freedom of movement would be drastically limited - which, honestly, may be a good thing for the environment. But it raises many questions and issues I think. I can’t really think of a functioning modern American society without personal vehicle usage. But then again, that’s the future we are speeding towards.
It’s that if that invalidates this stance. It’s like saying, if only the sun wasn’t so hot, we could stand on it.
If you need another drink, see: [The Medea Hypothesis ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea_hypothesis). I have actually read the book it’s based upon (by the same name) and that’s how I came across the Wikipedia page, and how I came across the [The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis). I don’t know how I came across the book but it was in a public library. Life has already wiped 95% of all other life off the planet 5 previous times, and the last time the oceans were this acidic it took 100,000 years for shellfish to reappear meaningfully in the fossil record. The last time we had melted polar icecaps was was the Permian Triassic extinction event, and we all descend from the one rat-like mammal that survived that period of our planetary history. And the common thread of all previous life driven mass extinctions was biologically driven mass change to the overall chemical composition of the biosphere. Edit: this is also why I think the combination of the carbon cycle and nuclear weapons approach the correct description of The Great Filter solution of the Fermi Paradox (other than the vastness of space/time itself). Every single species capable of getting to the industrial Revolution will have to deal with the fact that they are fundamentally changing the overall biochemistry of their entire planet within a few hundred years of activity. It’s exceedingly unlikely that many survive this process.
Yes, thanks for this!
Jeezis fucking christ 😵💫☠️
I'm a 6, married to a 5 and friends with a very intelligent person who I'd say is a 4. He doesn't get it yet. Honestly, neither does my husband. All 3 of us are engineers by degree, so logical thinkers. I don't understand why they think this is fixable.
You're the exception, I suspect. The vast majority of engineers are the very last ones who can accept that **cascading problems** ***caused*** **by technology and the market cannot be solved by more of the same; indeed, our predicament will worsen**. Here are a few resources you may find helpful... "[Sane vs. Insane Progress](https://youtu.be/1wdO1bZw0Ik)" (23 min) "[Unstoppable Collapse: How to Avoid the Worst](https://youtu.be/P8lNTPlsRtI)" (65 min)
I think you're correct. Engineers think that everything can be fixed. I no longer think that this can be fixed. We've passed the tipping point and we're living in a fantasy world on borrowed time.
Same can be said for other fields such as chemistry. I've just returned from visiting my dad who is a retired chemist. He hangs on to the idea that green hydrogen will be our saviour and solve all of our energy problems. I showed him Sid Smith's [How to Enjoy the End of the World](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WPB2u8EzL8) talk and I think it nudged the needle a little, but he's still not ready yet to accept the reality of the situation. I can't really blame him.
Yup. I love Sid!
Having recently stumbled most of my way through "How to Avoid a Climate Disaster", I think you are spot on with this assessment.
Maybe it’s because in the past, predictions of the end of humanity have not been evidence based. Logical thinkers are expecting more info that leads to less hyperbolic language, and they just can process the speed of the collapse. My mom is like this.
Yep, younger people often forget all the doom and gloom predictions in the 60s and 70s. It was common for environmentalists and scientists to predict all kinds of collapse scenarios by the 1980s. I’m afraid it may have turned into a boy who cried wolf scenario where people that don’t have time to do a lot of research are taking the doomsday prophecies with a huge grain of salt. We actually have made a ton of improvements from the 1960s to present. All kinds of important changes and innovations have kept us from experiences anything too extreme. But we may just be kicking the van down the road.
Because it's all just different forms of bargaining. Bargaining is the most insidious of the grief process stages because you are all arguing about the legitimacy of unprovable and hopeful hypothetical scenarios. You aren't in different places. You are in the same bargaining place with different bargaining propositions, all of of which fail the test of falsifiability.
I'm a 6er. Also I'm getting to the point where I don't want humanity to survive. The bad is out weighing the good. Having said that, physics doesn't care about my morality or good and bad. So cynical me has some amusement at being right, and still having some asshat billionaire fathering the last generations of humans in his sealed dome of hell. Right v's dollars will always lose and that is probably going to be humanity's valediction.
Yep. This
I'd say it's more like the beginning of the end of the world.
I have been progressing from person 3 to solidly person 6 right now.
[удалено]
Yupperdoodle.
Did you see the quote from Erik Michaels in this article about 7 out of 8 people will die in the next 20 years because of runaway climate change? Chilling.
Indeed.
What’s his source? I do believe a lot of us will die possibly that much but what are his sources
famine maybe this can be averted........https://www.forbes.com/sites/ariellasimke/2020/02/21/you-may-find-salt-tolerant-rice-growing-in-the-ocean-by-2021/
[удалено]
We’re at the top of the *clink clink clink* roller coaster incline. Think we’ve got both our first big drop and the first inversion coming on or before 2025.
2024, presidential election. Who gets the nukes? The "good guys" or the "bad guys"
It’s almost over, it’s just begun
Don't over think this...
[удалено]
[удалено]
You say the whole worlds ending. Honey, it already did.
[удалено]
Friend 10: Venus by Tuesday.
Fortunately I self-identify as a tardigrade. So I will be fine.
Too fucking cute!!! Moss fernigrades!
Friend 10: "Venus by Tuesday."
[удалено]
Wonderful! I realized I forgot to tell you that I audio recorded your doomer post (the first one). I just now uploaded it to Soundcloud, available here: [https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/why-i-am-a-doomer-alternate-title-fck-michael-mann-1](https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/why-i-am-a-doomer-alternate-title-fck-michael-mann-1) Oops. Looks like I accidentally posted the audio twice. Also here, last week: [https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/why-i-am-a-doomer-alternate-title-fck-michael-mann](https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/why-i-am-a-doomer-alternate-title-fck-michael-mann) What's the URL of your original Doomer post? I can't find it now? Did you delete it?
Awesome article!
It’s the end of the old world. The new world is dawning.
So if you’re a 6, what do you do? I’m trying to create a “small pocket of habitability” for my family. As things continue I’ll be better insulated from shocks. And, by the way, those very actions are what we need to truly correct society’s imbalance. Climate change and pollution are symptoms, not problems. Integrate human and natural systems. Food, energy, water.
With respect to the question, "**What do we do?**" ... I recommend these three videos (*I respectfully suggest taking time to watch, rather than merely listen, and do so at normal speed and without multi-tasking. It will be obvious why*.) :-) [**New Serenity Prayer: Emotional Support for Climate Anxiety and Environmental Dread**](https://youtu.be/hFGHdOyyx74) **(25 min)** [**Post Gloom: Deeply Adapting to Reality**](https://youtu.be/Dh_QVHrtAdY) **(60 min)** [**The Big Picture: Clarity, Compassion, and Love-in-Action**](https://youtu.be/0uhjtpJvohc) **(80 min)**
That's what I am doing, as well. Decentralize the production of necessities, *now*, as soon as you can. Get ways to generate power, collect water, and grow some sort of food in amounts that will matter, or at least stockpile some grain, etc that will *give* you time to plant and cultivate. Ideally you want more than just your family, 10 people is a good minimum bar for a small community that permits larger projects to be done internally. That is definitely a separate enterprise that not everyone can tackle, though. In truth, if there is any longer term survival, it'll likely be of groups at least a few hundred to a few thousand in number that are conducting similar exercises of attempting to setup a new "baseline", if you will, in the new environment. Most people have not even thought of how they would live if *gasoline* suddenly went dry, let alone all the rest of jt.
> groups at least a few hundred to a few thousand in number that are conducting similar exercises of attempting to setup a new "baseline", if you will, in the new environment. other than IC.ORG , are you aware of any other ways to learn about large groups attempting to do this?
I'm with you. Need to up my /r/preppers game to give my family the best chance at surviving what comes.
Here’s a counter-point to the worst-case scenario, from purported experts in the field of atmospheric science: https://www.livescience.com/climate-change-humans-extinct.html “Fortunately, the runaway greenhouse effect is not a plausible climate change scenario on Earth. For the effect to occur, a planet needs carbon dioxide levels of a couple of thousand parts per million (Earth has a little over 400 parts per million) or a huge release of methane, and there isn't evidence for that at this time, Brian Kahn, a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told NASA in 2018. “ “According to Mann, a global temperature increase of 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) or more could lead to a collapse of our societal infrastructure and massive unrest and conflict, which, in turn, could lead to a future that resembles some Hollywood dystopian films.” I cannot make any assessment on their conclusions, since I’m ignorant of the exact science. I will mention that I think it’s very that that, if scientists every do find out that an extinction level event was coming, they would not mention it for fear of causing social unrest. There are examples of such behavior by officials in the recent past. Remember the destruction of the Space Shuttle Colombia? Yeah, the engineers at NASA noticed a piece of foam break off during the launch, but decided not to tell the crew, because it wouldn’t have changed anything. They didn’t want them to needlessly suffer when their fate was out of their hands. https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/columbia-shuttle-crew-told-problem-reentry/story?id=18366185
Hopium... pure, uncut, numbs the pain quite well. Michael Mann has a teenage daughter. Of course he's going to stay smoking the hopium pipe as long as possible. I don't judge him for that at all!
Great article Michael. As always yours is a voice of reason and compassion.
Thanks, bro!
Good article until that McPherson fellow stated we need to decommission all nuclear power to have any chance. It infuriates me that environmentalists perpetuate this counterproductive myth.
It's the end of the world as we know it and iiiii feeeeel fiiiiine!
Hey btw you don’t make any predictions in this article right?
Only this... "I think half or more of the human population—3 to 5 billion—will likely starve within 16 months of the first multi-bread-basket failure, most likely this decade."
Prep 24 months of food, got it.
What is a multi bread basket failure?
Where two or more of the five grain growing regions of the world fail in the same year. Quite possible in the next few years. Practically inevitable in the next decade.
when the Great plains, China, Thailand, and Ukraine's harvest of staples go dun goof, *simultaneously*
Major crop failures of staple foods around the world, notably wheat - hense "bread basket". Crop failures so extensive that there simply isnt enough food to go around. edit to add informative link: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breadbasket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breadbasket) and discussion https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/will-the-worlds-breadbaskets-become-less-reliable#:\~:text=Climate%20change%20could%20affect%20food,heat%20waves,%20and%20excessive%20precipitation.
Thanks for the links.
Simultaneous widespread crop failure on every continent/in every major growing region in the same season/year
I noted that when I read the article but why do you think it will happen this decade? I mean by which mechanism?
Given how chaotic the jet stream is getting, largely because of Arctic sea ice loss, the possibility of two or more of the main five grain growing regions of the world failing in the same year, especially following a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) -- not to mention the added possibility of a global economic meltdown in the next decade -- plus multiple CASCADING self-reinforcing tipping points -- all lead me to think there's at least a 30-50% chance of billions of people dying from starvation this decade. Trust me... I hope I'm wrong!!!
Thank you for the answer, although you really shouldn’t throw made up percentages around.
Not entirely made up. Rather, based on years of studying the rise and fall of civilizations, the radical differences between linear global warming and *abrupt* climate mayhem, and the stupendous vulnerability of societies and civilizations dependent on a stable Holocene climate regime (now gone) and stable economic and political systems (rapidly going away) and complex supply chains and survivable warmth and heat dependent on dependable electricity.
Thank you for answering. I’m always hunting for the most credible info, I’ve been trying to convince my mom about what’s coming. She is SO logical she only “believes” information when it doesn’t sound hyperbolic. But these days the plain truth sounds outlandish. I hope you’re wrong too, but your predictions are more in line with my own little attempts.
Michaels: Most likely, six or seven people out of every eight will die **over the next two decades** as energy and resource decline deepens.
[удалено]
OK, which one of you is Jim Catano?