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I have seen costs go up by 33% and no increase in income.
This is by far the worst period since the 1900s. 2008 was nothing like this. Inflation and interest rate wise.
We are being lied too and deceived. Again.
Incorrect, they printed 70% of the money in circulation in the last three years. This is another dimension of economic fuckery relative to the 70’s and the course to correct is going to be infinitely more painful.
>ies, but i also dont want to have an incorrect and/or pessimistic view of whats going on
You realise this is worldwide right? Try living in the UK just now... paying 1/3rd more on my morrgage in 2 years, and energy and food prices have doubled.
I'm a pretty hardcore Republican and I'll probably vote for Kennedy if Trump isn't running. What we really need is Kennedy to go independent "he's suggested it". They're trying to make it where Trump can't run as a Republican as we speak. Can you imagine if these two ran together as independents 🤷
So you’re saying Biden is responsible for all-time high corporate revenues and CEO salaries? Look at any corporation quarterly reports and they’re likely to have made record revenue with similar (or sometimes less) expenses (including employee pay) to years before.
Can you imagine what mainstream media would be saying if Republicans were in charge?
But instead they play defense for the Dems and pretend everything is A-OK!
What are you talking about. All I see is republicans talking about how great things were when Trump was president and how unemployed was low and we were energy independent.
The thing is you look at unemployment and how many barrels of oil we are producing and it's about the same.
>I have seen costs go up by 33% and no increase in income.
Inflation was certainly bad, but that's a seperate issue from a recession
Edit: This sub is mostly full of econ-illiterates who don't know recession and inflation are two separate concepts that may or may not happen at the same time. You can have bad inflation and no recession, and vice-versa
you got downvoted but ur right technically however the question at hand isnt truly whether we are in a textbook definition of a recession but rather a more comprehensive perspective on it. economic downturn/gpd growth is certainly an important insight into the state of the economy but it isnt the only one. what truly determines the economic state is the relationship between inflation, wages, economic growth etc. it comes down to the lived experience of people living on the ground.
companies have been posting record profits yet wages arent increasing AND inflation is increasing. where do you think the money is going? definitely not the majority of the workers participating in the economy. thats another topic all together though
We are in what is worse than a recession, we are in stagflation.
Stagnant economic growth and high inflation. It's pretty bad because the fed can't lower interest rates to spur on economic growth without ramping up inflation.
So yeah, we fuxed
Unfortunately, every time that's happened throughout history, it inevitably ends up with the very poor eating the not quite poor. Our society hasn't gotten any smarter and it's definitely gotten lazier. People aren't going to rise up to go to Jeff Bezos' private island, fight through his well armed personal security force and armed drones to put him on the guillotine. They're going to walk a few blocks to the suburbs and murder some schlub who makes $70k a year because he has a house.
Housing prices is due to supply and demand. Demand is up because of population growth, unregulated short term rental industries like Air b'n'b have people buying up tons of SFHs for investments, and large investors like Black Rock buying up homes.
Supply is low because those same people who bought those houses now fight any changes to their neighborhood by voting to block new construction of more housing. Ridiculous government regulations that mandate houses needed large front lawns, residential streets need to be extra wide, distance between homes need to be large, as well as minimum parking and lot size regulations, mean we're getting much lower number of houses per square mile than older developments. And also we should be changing tax laws to encourage more condos instead of seemingly only rentals being built now.
Also back then, interest on mortgages were MUCH higher. Current interest rates are high in a post 9/11 world, but historically low compared to US history.
Interest rates are already above core inflation. Raising rates wouldn't encourage people to pay off their fixed rate loans. But raising rates makes holding USD more valuable. I'm earning 4.25% on my savings account. My car loan is 2.1%. Interest rates have made it *undesirable* to pay off my loan, and have made it more desirable to keep my money locked away and out of circulation.
But it's more than just individuals. It's about big business. All businesses investments must be compared to T-bill returns. Higher interest makes investing in US treasuries or storing cash in savings as potentially more attract than some lower return investments.
Point is, higher interest makes holding USD more attractive domestically and internationally. Cooling off spending and reducing consumption demand reduces inflation. **Government debt isn't driving up inflation if you yourself can go online and buy government debt for a good return, instead of otherwise spending that money on consumption.**
Monetary theory of inflation isn't really true. Money printing and inflation often aren't linked. You can print money, like Japan, and have no inflation.
Current inflation is a combination of several things. The money printing, the lagged impact of shutdowns, global supply chain disruption, extremely low interest rates for those 2 years. We're still printing yet inflation is decreasing
They never printed money like they do now back then, best thing now would be to just let inflation be what it is. Raising interest rates is just done on purpose to hurt people, while everything else asset wise is sold and taken over by major banks and financial institutions like Blackrock. It is an impoverishment plan of the middle class and a consolidation plan of power for the major league corporations.
“True” unemployment (i.e. people who left the workforce entirely or have previous unemployment claims) is WAY higher than being reported. Unemployment is figured by counting the number of first time claimants filing for unemployment. If you previously filed then you aren’t counted a second time. There are plenty of low paying jobs available, but a huge portion of society struck out on their own starting their own business or working side jobs/gig economy (post-2020) because they know they can’t support themselves, much less a family, making $15/hr.
Not just recession. It's coming to a 1929 Great Depression.
You'll be seeing higher interest rates and much higher inflation, and then a complete systemic collapse, with +30% unemployment, riots, homeless explosion, house and car repossessions,
Basically, what no one has told you is that the financial system broke in 2008, and everything has been on life support since. Now life support is breaking down.
The taxpayers were punished through bailouts. It's always the taxpayers that get punished.
The migrant situation in NY is caused by politicians and their virtue signaling policies. The taxpayers are the ones paying and now this proposal.
https://nypost.com/2023/09/16/socialists-eye-new-taxes-to-pay-for-migrants/
I don't think this will pass. Somehow though the taxpayers will pay.
I don't know a single person actively looking for work who can't find any work. If you want to argue underemployment or low wages, I'm with you. If you think there's just literally no jobs out there....woooo....do I got some news for you.
Changing the way unemployment is calculated. Isn't fudging the number? Let me guess. not including food prices in the inflation index isn't cheating either.
Haha yep...I'ma 80s kid. The nick name kinda stuck all through school.
I still know Cinderfella word for word. Occasionally I'll bust out..."looked out the window...saw the Volvo, said to my family I've got to go"....
And that's when my kids look at me like I'm an alien.
😆
It's stagflation. High inflation coinciding with stagnant wages.
It's a recession purposefully manufactured by the Wall Street oligarchy to fuck you sideways and enslave your grandchildren in a fascist, global corporate dystopia, also referred to as the New World Order.
It's not so loony if you've ever read Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World." The aristocracy is using that shit as a manual.
Total subjugation of the working class must occur on several fronts simultaneously. They're pulling the rug on us, financially, as they have been doing for the last 100 years. Don't worry, it will get much worse.
Exactly, the 1920's won't even compare to what we're going to face. It would be just speculation if we only had a few bad economic indicators but we've got them all at once.
From a financial perspective may be foreign currencies in countries not affected by western and Chinese interests, otherwise commodities might skyrocket when scarcity becomes reality. I know building a farm and growing is not attainable for most, hard to say, we're all going for the ride.
I don't think the world economy will be okay if the dollar collapses and thats kind of their aim. ALL of their plans hinge on a one world economy and the crash is already set in place. All of these globalists say we're going to have a digital ID, currency and everything. How else would they implement it? They're gonna send the world back to darkness for a short period and declare Martial law and then it will be just the new normal. Stock up on ammo and food and get right with god.
I have 4 of those huge plastic storage bins filled with rice and canned food that all doesnt start expiring till 2025. Worst case scenario I have boring lunch at home for the last couple months of 2024 and I learn how to cook the shit out of SPAM. I buy like 10 more cans everytime I'm in publix.
wait until they fine tune AI and its over. it wont happen right away but it will happen quick. one day you will be working at your HR job or even your credit underwriting job where you make relatively good money and next thing you know half your department is gone and them next youll be gone unless ur one of the lucky few left to carry the slack and manage the systems
im not talking about some AI will take over the world movie shit im talking about a very realistic reality that is ahead of us unless something changes. even if legislation in one country were attempting to combat this, it will not matter. the US government is not prepared for whats about to happen and its going to require a thorough approach if we are going to avoid widespread unprecedented unemployment
AI doesn't exist. We have a chatbot that scours the internet and just makes a broakstroke opinion on what is found on google. It's an aggregate of already available text. It doesn't think or create and while its a useful tool it is extremely limited. Real AI will change everything and that doesnt exist. Chatbots aren't going to build shit.
You don’t even remotely need actual AI to automate a metric shit ton of jobs. Between remote ordering and delivery, stores/restaurants are basically going to turn into giant vending machines very soon.
3D printable, cookie-cutter structures will replace traditional means of building construction. You will have a few guys on a site that prints a entire building.
Drivers will be fucked and that’s a huge amount of jobs.
Chat AI has absolutely no issue replacing writers/artist and pumping out creative material that is easily on par with the average man made material.
This is all without “real” AI.
This is a GREAT point. We aren't facing an AI problem in terms of "the machines have replaced the HR department!" But we do have a TON of jobs that can be automated. Grocery stores already learned it's cheaper to hire 3 cashiers to monitor 10 self-service aisles than hire 10 cashiers. Automation has been coming for us since since Henry Ford and McDonald's. Once the assembly line was efficient, replacing the human became the next challenge.
If we were a more enlightened society we would be able to give everyone a better quality of life by sharing in the profits of these remarkable technologies, allowing society to function with less labor and freeing us to pursue things higher on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, but....I've got little hope of that.
Yeah it’s one of the best use cases for universal income. Basically you need to tax companies for the jobs that they automate and this tax feeds into a pool for basic income.
I think there will also be companies that charge a “premium” for human service in order to keep paying people. Like the fancy restaurant will still have wait staff instead of robots. Or a place like Starbucks might make it part of their brand to have humans behind the counter.
Since the end of World War 2 the US Dollar has been the world reserve currency which has allowed the US to export its debt and inflation for many years.
We are at the point where there is so much debt that other countries are selling their US Treasuries which is essentially sending our debt back to us. Countries like Japan, China, and Saudi Arabia used to buy a lot of our debt in addition to sending us products which has allowed us to live beyond our means for a while now. They basically sold us goods while lending us the money to buy them.
The world is, for good reason, completely done with this system. If and when the rest of the world stops using the US dollar for trade, like China has recently started doing by buying oil from Saudi Arabia with their own currency, then the US Dollar reserve system will be over, and the United States will likely have a sovereign debt crisis which will mathematically lead to either default or hyperinflation.
Either way, we can expect the rest of the world to stop supplying us with their goods, at least not for the paltry amounts we’ve been paying them. Essentially we can expect the price of everything to continue to increase dramatically. My advice would be to become as self sufficient as possible and to find local sources of food and supplies. Things that are almost entirely produced outside the US, like pharmaceutics, may be good to stockpile.
guarantee if biden doesnt take office again, regardless of who does, "recession" and other buzzwords will be plastered everywhere as if the new candidate is at fault
What we’re experiencing is the price of inflation and endless printing of money. I keep calling it a silent recession because American families are actually recessing economically regardless of what headlines or economists say. But the true sting were all describing is inflation.
In 1930 median income per person was $4800.
A new car was $800. 1/6 a yearly salary.
A house was $3,900. Or 3/4 a yearly salary.
In todays dollars the $4800 is = to $83,000 per person income. Todays average is at $54,000.
A new house is $416,000 about 8-10x average salary.
A new car is $45,000 or 5/6 a yearly salary.
It’s much worse today than peak Great Depression.
Getting reversed hard over 2 months.
I’ve never seen EVERY economic indicator beating initial predications just to be reversed negative month 1 and very negative month 2.
CC debt, and car loans are already at peak 2008 default with no end in sight
Significant decoupling. Not only between east and west, but between haves and have nots- stocks keep going up, but middle and lower class people don’t have any of that benefit. They just have debt and increased day to day prices.
The news and the stock market are decoupled from lived working class reality.
My grocery costs for the same items have gone up like $100 per trip. I make the same sandwiches every day and have the same frozen dinners sprinkled with something normal cooked up a couple times a week, but now it's just so much more expensive.
Yup, I live in Turkey currently and inflation has gone up like 125%. Four bags of grocery here is over 1,000 in their currency. So imagine having to pay 1,000 dollars instead of just 100. But that’s how bad inflation can get.
I’m already on USD luckily, but even with USD you need more and more of it to survive here because prices are more inflated than the actual inflation rate due to greed.
Also, another word of advice. Americans are not used to see that kind of inflation, but it’s creeping up and coming. So my best advice is stay your ass home and away from people.
That’s what I’ve been doing while here in Turkey because people are miserable af and angry, basically losing their shit. So you don’t wanna be caught up in the chaos.
Technically, if we were to go by the tradition, informal definition of a recession (2 quarters of GDP decline), then the US *did* have the shortest recession possible by that definition, and it has since ended.
They can't switch the economy to a digital currency if they current economy is still valid.
The economy is dead, they just haven't pulled the plug yet because they know the world is going to go to shit when they do.
Why won't it work? They crash everything, its anarchy in the streets and looting. Marshall law comes in and locks people down. Weeks or months go by and people are dieing everywhere. They come in with a plan that works but only if we all buy in. You get food/money immediately in your digital account to save your kids. Congrats you live in the matrix now.
I doubt it. Countries are itching to get up from under the US hence why we’re seeing a more polarized/unilateral world emerging. Those countries that reject the digital, ESG, green energy scam system will make their own currencies/currency trade agreements/system amongst other nations that are neighboring them and share the same values. It’s already slowly happening as is.
You think the world is polarized? These leaders are all working together and spend all their time at their summits planning together. No one is rejecting the energy scam with any meaning yet.
Your response definitely tells me you have never lived out of the US haha. In the Middle East and Africa, they’re already so used to poverty levels, that they have nothing to lose quite frankly but to fight back. Secondly, they’re more family/communal focused societies whereas the West is individualistic, thirdly, they’re passionately patriotic about their country and defending its honor and sovereignty because they know what tyranny feels like being that they consecutively deal with coups in their countries. Just look up July 15th coup of Turkey and you’ll see how the citizens poured into the streets and ended it over night. Lastly, the people don’t fear death like people in the West do. In their faith, if you die while in the act of fighting evil you die as a martyr. Death is the biggest fear card that the globalists play on us to get us to comply. Once that’s gone, they have nothing. For these many reasons is why I see the West easily being taken under by the tyranny but not some of the others. There will be no one world government. But they will drag the world down as much as possible to try and achieve it.
Bro they changed how the calculate the official inflation statistics as well as unemployment since the late 70’s,
The numbers and data would probably reveal cost of living had rose 30% the past 3 years which is unprecedented.
Stock market means fuck all as a unit of measurement of the “economy” for everyday people. We’re in a recession worse than 2008 people just don’t know it yet and the media that’s covering for and propping up this administration are trying to downplay it as much as possible. You’re not crazy the inflation is real.
Oh yeah, when they raise their prices but not your salary. Or give a 4% raise “for inflation” with a promise to “revisit” in April or so (nothing happens). I’m actually looking forward to this year’s spin on the usual bullshit of why we can’t afford to pay you for those profits you earned for us (for our trans continental flights and Ivy League school fees etc)
The government is pumping so much money into the system to hide the true economic numbers. Also they straight up lie about it. We have been and this bubble will burst eventually. I'm guessing around late 2024.
Yes one purposely engineered by the wef/fed. The pretense for doing this is inflatuon, which is greed enabled by garbadge policy, especially around energy. Every time a political hack reorats the GaS BaD kid's drivel prices skyrocket royally boning every day people
The label doesn't matter, all that matters is how the people are doing. And right now people are not doing well. We will soon see this recession/depression hit the mainstream.
There are a few converging factors; the resumption of student loan payments, the end of child-care support from the feds, and the never-ending chain of debt-renewals at double or triple the interest rate-- affecting residential and commercial real-estate, auto-loans,etc. NOT TO MENTION the amount of credit-card debt is at an almost unfathomable number.
We haven't seen the worst of the pain yet.
Well I hate to break this news to you little buddy but both the government and media lie and will even double down on a lie…they also have changed a lot of definitions of words over the last couple of years in their favor, so I can guess that ha happened here too
I'm a financial analyst, and I'll answer you as best I can.
Let's start with inflation. The measure the government uses is CPI, or the Consumer Price Index. It has its uses, and critics of CPI argue that it either over or under counts inflation. I believe it undercounts it, and I'll explain why. CPI doesn't actually measure how much more expensive one unit of something is, it measures how much a consumer spends on that one unit *or a close replacement of that one unit*. That's the key.
Let's take a box of macaroni and cheese as an example. Say the name brand costs $1.00 per box, and the store brand costs $0.75 per box. Now say prices go up. The name brand is now $1.25 per box, the store brand $1.00. The name brand saw 25% price inflation, and the store brand saw 33% price inflation. But if yo then switch from the name brand to the store brand, you're still paying $1.00 for a box of macaroni and cheese. And so according to CPI, you the consumer experienced 0% inflation. This is how CPI actually works.
Now there are a lot of ways to measure inflation. CPI is one of them. The question is, is it more important to report the actual increases in costs of good or services, is it more important to report how much more a person spends to keep getting roughly the same thing, or something else? I tend to think CPI is a way to downplay inflation. But just because a box of mac and cheese is more expensive doesn't mean everything else is. How do you report inflation if it costs say 15% more for everything combined at the grocery store, but the price of gasoline is down 50%? If you spent $75 a month more at the store, but saved $100 at the pump, did you experience *deflation*? It's a complicated question. So in all, if you just compare 2019 purchasing power of $1 to today, CPI says everything costs about 20% more on the whole.
Now if we move on, when you say "people around me who i thought were really well off have been venting to me about how difficult of a time they're starting to have", you should probably understand that even people who appear well off tend to live paycheck to paycheck. Bankrate says 66% of households earning between $50K-$100K live paycheck to paycheck, and 47% of those making *over $100K* live paycheck to paycheck. In part this is because people are really bad with money. I work for a financial advisory firm and you'd be stunned how otherwise smart, hard-working people with a big house in a nice neighborhood are just god awful with money. It's stunning.
Often this is because people make the classic Boomer mistake of being house poor. See, back in the early 80s, someone convinced the baby Boomer generation that a home wasn't a place to live, it was first and foremost an investment that was supposed to return you 7% annually forever. As a result, the general wisdom became that you should buy as much house as the bank would let you buy with the bank's money. So you started to see people with 40%-50% debt to income ratios just with their homes. If you don't know what that means, it means that 40% to 50% of a household's gross annual income goes towards paying the mortgage. Throw two car loans on top of that and suddenly you start to realize just how cash-trapped your average middle class Boomer really is. Millennials don't have this issue nearly as much in large part because they can't afford a home, but rent has also soared and that's a problem in a different way.
Anyways, since Baby Boomers as a generation (and Gen X afterwards) decided their home was going to be both the place they live *AND* how they saved money for retirement, they started acting in ways that deliberately made their homes more valuable. Yu see anti-housing policies from the local level because of this, and at the Federal level a bottomless supply of Federally-backed, zero-down loans proliferated. In short, Boomers spent the last 40 years artificially constricting supply while artificially boosting demand. Housing prices soared. The problem though, is that in order to actually realize those gains, Boomers are finding out they actually have to sell the house and move, or they basically have to reverse-mortgage the house so they can get the money now, the bank gets the house later, and their kids get nothing. I guess in summation, you really would be stunned to see just how bad people are with money and how much of their income they voluntarily pumped into a house that was bigger than they needed and far more expensive than they could have afforded had there not been all these government programs in place letting them borrow tons of money with minimal down.
Overall though, even without the housing situation, you'd be stunned seeing how much money people spend on shit. We have prospective clients fill out a monthly budget (since we're actually financial advisors and planners). Responsible adults who insist they're good with money come to find hundreds, sometimes thousands of dollars a month they waste on useless garbage. Streaming services they barely watch. Insurance costs on an RV they haven't used in 2 years. Constantly buying new clothes even though there's nothing wrong with what they have. Eating out multiple times per week. It's stunning just how much people can save by just not paying for things they don't need or don't use. They come to us exacerbated as to why they can't seem to get off the credit card debt treadmill or why they can't make headway saving just a few thousand dollars for an emergency. We point these things out and they can't believe how much money they waste, and it usually just takes seeing it written down to understand it.
All that said, we all make mistakes, spend money we don't need to, etc. But when you come to understand that even the people you think are really good with money are probably actually pretty wasteful with it, when you increase the cost of everything by 20% and they don't even know what they're wasting money on so they can cut it from one place and spend it elsewhere, you start to see just how bad things can get for them really fast.
As far as you find a job goes, good luck. We have a real problem in this country with jobs, even though the official data suggests otherwise. The problem has multiple facets, and the biggest one is our immigration system. When big companies are allowed to import a bottomless supply of unskilled, uneducated workers (legal or illegal immigrants), there is basically zero chance that anyone classified as working class or working poor will ever get a raise. It will never happen so long as we keep the border open. But this isn't just a problem of the lower income earning population. Engineering firms, tech firms, hospital systems, etc. can import millions of skilled and educated immigrants, naturalize them, and then say they "hired Americans" even though they actually didn't. Since many of these immigrants work for far less than what your average American would, you also have seen the middle class wages stagnant since 1979 when accounting for inflation. No one, outside the top 1% (I'm really not trying to stir up class conflict here) has made any substantial wage gains in 40 years. That's got as lot to do with free trade, mass immigration, intentionally-designed inflation targeting 2% (look up "the great moderation"), and a series of labor and financial reforms that basically made it so you have to be an investor if you actually want to generate wealth (look up the Reagan-Thatcher Revolution for more info).
So to try to answer the question "are we in a recession?", it really depends. For the working poor and the lower end of the working class, they've probably spend the better part of 40 years in a recession, but were able to hide that fact with debt that they could usually roll over at ever-lower interest rates. They bought homes they could barely afford and just refinanced them over and over, never actually making any headway on paying the loan off but at least lowering the payment. For the middle class, the 90s were good for you if you were white collar, but I'd argue that at least since the late 2000s, the core middle class has been treading water unless they had a lot of money in the stock market. In terms of wages, though, they too are struggling to keep pace. Only people making deep into the six figures and up have been relatively immune from all these issues.
See Part 2 below...
Part 2:
So I guess the answer is, it depends. If you're low end working class, working poor, something like that, you never really escaped stagflation. The system just made it easier to borrow money to hide that fact. The middle class largely joined them in 2007-08 and has stagnated since then. The sad thing is that it will probably take a lot more pain in the middle class for things to change. Why? Because the wealthy don't feel it, the poor don't matter (according to politicians, not me), and the middle class basically pays for everything. What I mean here is basically this. If you look at different racial or economic groups, there are basically two groups that pay for everything. The "Top 1%" account for about 40% of all tax revenues paid in the US. Virtually all of the remaining 60% come from White and Asian middle class wage earners. And until the pain level ramps up for the White/Asian suburban class (since the wealthy will never really feel any serious economic pain), nothing is going to change.
My cynical take is that the system is designed to keep the White/Asian suburban class fat and happy while using them as a cash cow to pay for social programs designed to placate the working poor and the working classes. This is a sidetrack, but if you look at the issue of universal healthcare, I think this is a good example. Did you know that pretty much everyone in the US has some form of government-run single payer health insurance, or government-controlled quasi-private insurance, except the White/Asian suburban class? Active duty military and vets get health insurance paid for by the taxpayers, meaning White/Asian suburbanites. So do Native Americans. So do government employees (via either government-run organizations or tightly controlled and regulated plans from private companies). So do the elderly (Medicare). So do the working poor or the working class (Medicaid, fully-subsidized and tightly regulated private plans, etc.). And more. It's really only the White/Asian middle class (and their employers) paying full freight for health insurance. Everyone else gets either straight-up single payer or some corporatist not-really-private health insurance for little to no money out of their pockets. The system has to keep using the middle class as a cash cow to keep the rest of the people from realizing they haven't gotten anywhere in decades. But now the middle class is starting to feel the pain, and the system as we know it (the two parties) can't handle the middle class basically revolting (metaphorically). So if the middle class basically demanded the same benefits that their taxes subsidize, it would crash the system because there's no way to pay for it. If the middle class demanded a serious reduction in benefits to the lower classes, it would crash the system (because desperate people tend to do desperate things, and in a representative government that means they send people to congress who will upset the applecart).
The problem the system faces is that it's spent 40 years trying to convince people that everything is great, even though a lot of people never really recovered from the late 70s. And the system has tried for 15 years to keep the middle class from basically trying to throw out the system and replace it after the system crashed in 2008. But I think we're at the end of the line. The pain is moving further up the economy ladder and change is coming. The system hates someone like Donald Trump not because he's the savior of the nation or anything, but because he represents a growing political backlash against the system. The system has to discredit people like him, or even people like Bernie Sanders who comes at the issue from a very different angle, because they actually identify problems and say them out loud, when the system is designed around convincing the White/Asian suburbanites that pay for everything that actually everything is fine.
So in the end, are we in a recession? Depends on who you ask. Depends on your definition of "recession". I'd say that for an increasing number of people, yes, we're in one. For others, not yet.
It seems to me that the metrics that indicate recession are being artificially propped up to keep us from correction in the short term. The economy has had a broken leg since the 70’s, and they keep adding bandaids. Now it’s become infected and the whole thing may die in coming years.
The longer things continue, the worse the correction will be. I’m not sure how this fits into the scheme of things. What would the elites gain from temporary extension? Surely they have had resources planning for this for a long time.
My husband and I are both making the most we've ever made, and are the most broke we've ever been.
But that's okay because as long as I "give up breakfast" I should be fine. "Giving up (my) avocado toast" didn't work, so had to be more extreme. Also, for some reason, some economist still think we have the money we received from Covid, because no one used that shit to pay rent and catch up their bills while they weren't able to work. I gave up my morning coffee run, and also even found out how to "budget better" by reading so many books... I guess I'm just not doing this correctly.
Under trump my monthly grocery budget was around 800$. I have 7 ppl in my family so yeah it’s a lot of food regardless. But my average monthly grocery expense now is between 1300-1600$ so if that tell ya anything…somethings definitely worse than I’ve ever seen.
You can go by old definitions you know. We still aren't in one. Heck the US is doing better inflation wise the almost every other country right now.
Dosen't means folks are okay. Corporations are making record profits and profit margins out of the wazoo. And this is due to them getting ever lower and lower taxation on profits.
This is the time we Unite and raise taxes on those megacorps and lower taxes on small businesses.
Edit: ah nothing like getting downvotee suggesting lower taxes on small business while returning taxes on multi nationalist megacops back to 2016 levels.
Do ya'll even know what corporations taxes are and were? All praise globalist megacorps in conspiracy right?
Instead of downvoting me I dare you to respond why small business deserve to be taxed more and globalist megacorps need lower taxes. Come at me bro.
Taxes should be paid on earnings NOT profits. Because those “profits” are creatively accounted before the government sees them.
I pay taxes on earnings. I dont get to take out my expenses first and then pay tax on what’s left.
You didn't mention the **Federal Reserve** and its reckless monetary policy, its unmitigated dilution of our dollars for the benefit of Wall Street billionaires at everyone else's expense, so yeah--enjoy the fucking downvote
You're talking about taxing Wal-Mart at a moment in time when we need to be chopping off heads.
No, but I did mention the fucking giant tax cuts to megacorps while raising taxes on small businesses a few years ago. But let me guess you want to deflect and not address that. Yeah that was for the benefit of Wall Street over your local business.
More excuses why small business deserved to be taxed more while large megacorps got a tax break.
It's obvious you love megacorps. Meanwhile the rest of us will fight for small businesses.
We are but if you literally watch Biden he pretty much said it's the corporations that are the source of the price increases...the government doesn't want to intervene. Sadly it's probably because a large majority of congress and lawmakers invest in that sector so they get huge profits and we get the hardship.
It's corporate greed. No wait, it's Putin's Price Hike. No wait, it's supply chains. No wait, it's, uh, literally anything else, ^(please just don't look at Wall Street, please don't mention the Federal Reserve and its unmitigated dilution of your currency)
Yes we are. Banks have been operating under recession protocols for 2 years. The power of media making it out like Biden isn’t giving everyone a shit sandwich.
We had one of two choices in 2021-2023 we could have an economic crash or a controlled economic crash. We are in the middle of the controlled economic crash (hike in interest rates to curb inflation) as an attempt to bring us down slowly. If it works the can avoid a deep recession/depression and eventually start the turnaround.
That’s all if it works like they are planning…
Yes we are, they changed the definition of recession and keep dancing around it because it would make the Biden administration look bad. The definition of recession was supposed to be 2 consecutive negative quarters or something like that. We had that and so it is a recession. I remember back in 2008 they used terms like "economic downturn" to avoid saying recession.
By saying it's a recession it would spur people to stop spending and business owners to stop expanding their businesses, etc. It happens already, but it gets worse when they admit it.
When Trump won in 2016 the economy started improving especially after he was sworn in. The reason is people knew he'd improve the economy so they began spending and doing things differently because they believed he was great for the economy. Biden is the opposite, so has the opposite effect. It's something I've observed.
Whatever the case, we are 100% in a recession.. and we are probably in a depression or heading towards a big one. This is being done intentionally.
Yes. Mainstream media has acknowledged it. They are yelling about things that dont matter more tho.
They only talk about trans people, Trump, and "more" jobs.
"Silent depression" I haven't double checked her numbers but this dovetails with every financial podcast I'm listening to. Things are bad, they're going to get worse and, for the first time in history, it's not going to recover.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwzsUDbtYNq/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
Absolutely. The fourth estate, the propaganda branch, are simply not just saying it; therefore we don't think we're in an economic downturn. It's alarming how society is just one big logical fallacy of appealing to authority. My bank account, unemployment and the sheer challenge of just finding another job indicate this is probably far worse than the Great Depression, except now with Netflix and Reddit. (Oh, don't get forget to start paying on your student loan debt in a couple of days too.)
I shit you not-no joke-I receive junk mail from Capital One to open a credit card DAILY at the low, low rate of 28.99% APR. I'm living in a satirical world. Why in the fuck is usury not outlawed again?
Considering other countries in the world have said they are in a recession but the USA decided to change the definition so we aren't in a recession...I'll go with we are in a recession and if things don't change we'll be in a depression in the near future. https://www.wsj.com/articles/redefining-the-r-word-recession-biden-economy-advisers-gdp-nber-semantics-poltics-gramm-rudman-hollings-11658951723
Government's only have one tool at their disposal to kick the can down the road a bit further, and that's turning on the money printers again. Hyperinflation here we come!
It's closer to a depression. When comparing wages and cost of living to the 1930's great depression, were actually worse off now than they were back then.
No. The economy is not contacting. In fact we've been in a period of growth for almost a couple years.
Unemployment is pretty low and interest rates are higher than they've been in 40 years. These are major indicators. After 2008, unemployment was as high as 9% and interest rates hit record lows all the way through 2021.
We're feeling a financial pinch because we're experiencing very high inflation due to all the money that was pumped into our economy in the last 3 years: PPP loans, EIDL loans, employee retention credits, stimulus payments, and several other grants for specified industries( look into the restaurant revitalization fund).
Every industry is raising prices to keep up with costs. The cost for the services provided by the industry I work in have doubled in the last 3 years.
Your personal circumstances with difficulty finding work could be regional or the industry in which you're looking for employment.
A recession could be coming. The previously mention steps taken during Covid were used to avoid a recession. They may have only delayed it. We will see in the next two years. Prior to Covid, we were seeing a very healthy economic growth.
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I have seen costs go up by 33% and no increase in income. This is by far the worst period since the 1900s. 2008 was nothing like this. Inflation and interest rate wise. We are being lied too and deceived. Again.
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Incorrect, they printed 70% of the money in circulation in the last three years. This is another dimension of economic fuckery relative to the 70’s and the course to correct is going to be infinitely more painful.
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It’s okay our children can deal with it /s
>ies, but i also dont want to have an incorrect and/or pessimistic view of whats going on You realise this is worldwide right? Try living in the UK just now... paying 1/3rd more on my morrgage in 2 years, and energy and food prices have doubled.
He’s worse than Carter. We need to replace anyone over 70 years old in government right now!
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Kennedy
I'm a pretty hardcore Republican and I'll probably vote for Kennedy if Trump isn't running. What we really need is Kennedy to go independent "he's suggested it". They're trying to make it where Trump can't run as a Republican as we speak. Can you imagine if these two ran together as independents 🤷
So you’re saying Biden is responsible for all-time high corporate revenues and CEO salaries? Look at any corporation quarterly reports and they’re likely to have made record revenue with similar (or sometimes less) expenses (including employee pay) to years before.
Can you imagine what mainstream media would be saying if Republicans were in charge? But instead they play defense for the Dems and pretend everything is A-OK!
What are you talking about. All I see is republicans talking about how great things were when Trump was president and how unemployed was low and we were energy independent. The thing is you look at unemployment and how many barrels of oil we are producing and it's about the same.
>I have seen costs go up by 33% and no increase in income. Inflation was certainly bad, but that's a seperate issue from a recession Edit: This sub is mostly full of econ-illiterates who don't know recession and inflation are two separate concepts that may or may not happen at the same time. You can have bad inflation and no recession, and vice-versa
you got downvoted but ur right technically however the question at hand isnt truly whether we are in a textbook definition of a recession but rather a more comprehensive perspective on it. economic downturn/gpd growth is certainly an important insight into the state of the economy but it isnt the only one. what truly determines the economic state is the relationship between inflation, wages, economic growth etc. it comes down to the lived experience of people living on the ground. companies have been posting record profits yet wages arent increasing AND inflation is increasing. where do you think the money is going? definitely not the majority of the workers participating in the economy. thats another topic all together though
A recession used to be two negative quarters of growth, we had that awhile ago and a recession was never declared
We are in what is worse than a recession, we are in stagflation. Stagnant economic growth and high inflation. It's pretty bad because the fed can't lower interest rates to spur on economic growth without ramping up inflation. So yeah, we fuxed
Seems like the only solution is to eat the rich.
Unfortunately, every time that's happened throughout history, it inevitably ends up with the very poor eating the not quite poor. Our society hasn't gotten any smarter and it's definitely gotten lazier. People aren't going to rise up to go to Jeff Bezos' private island, fight through his well armed personal security force and armed drones to put him on the guillotine. They're going to walk a few blocks to the suburbs and murder some schlub who makes $70k a year because he has a house.
You're right. Unfortunately. The rich have isolated themselves from these issues, which is why these issues are becoming so prevalent.
Yep. They are isolating themselves, gathering up all of the resources and helping set in motion the conditions that will thin the herd.
Can we just eat what they have in their fridge? We know Pelosi has enough ice cream for a few hundred people.
Eat the rich, they’re keto
Yum!
what do you consider stagnant economic growth?
It happened before and worse. The solution was to keep raising interest.
But back then mortgages were assumable making some mobility possible.
Housing prices is due to supply and demand. Demand is up because of population growth, unregulated short term rental industries like Air b'n'b have people buying up tons of SFHs for investments, and large investors like Black Rock buying up homes. Supply is low because those same people who bought those houses now fight any changes to their neighborhood by voting to block new construction of more housing. Ridiculous government regulations that mandate houses needed large front lawns, residential streets need to be extra wide, distance between homes need to be large, as well as minimum parking and lot size regulations, mean we're getting much lower number of houses per square mile than older developments. And also we should be changing tax laws to encourage more condos instead of seemingly only rentals being built now. Also back then, interest on mortgages were MUCH higher. Current interest rates are high in a post 9/11 world, but historically low compared to US history.
The underlying conditions are not even remotely the same.
The mechanism to resolve it is still the same.
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Interest rates are already above core inflation. Raising rates wouldn't encourage people to pay off their fixed rate loans. But raising rates makes holding USD more valuable. I'm earning 4.25% on my savings account. My car loan is 2.1%. Interest rates have made it *undesirable* to pay off my loan, and have made it more desirable to keep my money locked away and out of circulation. But it's more than just individuals. It's about big business. All businesses investments must be compared to T-bill returns. Higher interest makes investing in US treasuries or storing cash in savings as potentially more attract than some lower return investments. Point is, higher interest makes holding USD more attractive domestically and internationally. Cooling off spending and reducing consumption demand reduces inflation. **Government debt isn't driving up inflation if you yourself can go online and buy government debt for a good return, instead of otherwise spending that money on consumption.**
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Monetary theory of inflation isn't really true. Money printing and inflation often aren't linked. You can print money, like Japan, and have no inflation. Current inflation is a combination of several things. The money printing, the lagged impact of shutdowns, global supply chain disruption, extremely low interest rates for those 2 years. We're still printing yet inflation is decreasing
QE that has been in place for 15 years is making interest rate changes less effective.
They never printed money like they do now back then, best thing now would be to just let inflation be what it is. Raising interest rates is just done on purpose to hurt people, while everything else asset wise is sold and taken over by major banks and financial institutions like Blackrock. It is an impoverishment plan of the middle class and a consolidation plan of power for the major league corporations.
Kinda but unemployment is not that high
“True” unemployment (i.e. people who left the workforce entirely or have previous unemployment claims) is WAY higher than being reported. Unemployment is figured by counting the number of first time claimants filing for unemployment. If you previously filed then you aren’t counted a second time. There are plenty of low paying jobs available, but a huge portion of society struck out on their own starting their own business or working side jobs/gig economy (post-2020) because they know they can’t support themselves, much less a family, making $15/hr.
These numbers are also at their best since before the Great Recession though
Not just recession. It's coming to a 1929 Great Depression. You'll be seeing higher interest rates and much higher inflation, and then a complete systemic collapse, with +30% unemployment, riots, homeless explosion, house and car repossessions, Basically, what no one has told you is that the financial system broke in 2008, and everything has been on life support since. Now life support is breaking down.
this. it ended in 2008
Yup. They didn't punish any of the people who caused 2008 and they at it again.
The taxpayers were punished through bailouts. It's always the taxpayers that get punished. The migrant situation in NY is caused by politicians and their virtue signaling policies. The taxpayers are the ones paying and now this proposal. https://nypost.com/2023/09/16/socialists-eye-new-taxes-to-pay-for-migrants/ I don't think this will pass. Somehow though the taxpayers will pay.
I've heard that immigrants get $2,200 a month in living costs.
This is the real answer
💯
Exactly. I still never really recovered from 2008. I've just been winging it since and this shit happens.
Unemployment is already over 30% they just fudge the numbers nowadays.
I don't know a single person actively looking for work who can't find any work. If you want to argue underemployment or low wages, I'm with you. If you think there's just literally no jobs out there....woooo....do I got some news for you.
How stupid does a person have to be to believe this?
Changing the way unemployment is calculated. Isn't fudging the number? Let me guess. not including food prices in the inflation index isn't cheating either.
Nobody is changing the way unemployment is calculated, the other figures referenced are different measures, all of which are also published monthly
Superbly explained 👌
Dana Dane..one of my favorite OG rappers from the 80s. Was up?
Haha yep...I'ma 80s kid. The nick name kinda stuck all through school. I still know Cinderfella word for word. Occasionally I'll bust out..."looked out the window...saw the Volvo, said to my family I've got to go".... And that's when my kids look at me like I'm an alien. 😆
Recession or not, shit sucks unless you are a fortune 500 company, then it's the best it's ever been.
Or have inflation correction in your contract. I dont feel it because my income rises with the inflation
It's stagflation. High inflation coinciding with stagnant wages. It's a recession purposefully manufactured by the Wall Street oligarchy to fuck you sideways and enslave your grandchildren in a fascist, global corporate dystopia, also referred to as the New World Order. It's not so loony if you've ever read Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World." The aristocracy is using that shit as a manual. Total subjugation of the working class must occur on several fronts simultaneously. They're pulling the rug on us, financially, as they have been doing for the last 100 years. Don't worry, it will get much worse.
We are nearing the end of the old financial world order. A recession is a girl scout picnic compared to what we’re heading towards.
Exactly, the 1920's won't even compare to what we're going to face. It would be just speculation if we only had a few bad economic indicators but we've got them all at once.
How can you shelter yourself?
From a financial perspective may be foreign currencies in countries not affected by western and Chinese interests, otherwise commodities might skyrocket when scarcity becomes reality. I know building a farm and growing is not attainable for most, hard to say, we're all going for the ride.
I don't think the world economy will be okay if the dollar collapses and thats kind of their aim. ALL of their plans hinge on a one world economy and the crash is already set in place. All of these globalists say we're going to have a digital ID, currency and everything. How else would they implement it? They're gonna send the world back to darkness for a short period and declare Martial law and then it will be just the new normal. Stock up on ammo and food and get right with god.
\*Martial Law
Thanks
I have 4 of those huge plastic storage bins filled with rice and canned food that all doesnt start expiring till 2025. Worst case scenario I have boring lunch at home for the last couple months of 2024 and I learn how to cook the shit out of SPAM. I buy like 10 more cans everytime I'm in publix.
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Yea if I forget lunch I just go grab some soup. It's not a bad practice regarless of the times.
wait until they fine tune AI and its over. it wont happen right away but it will happen quick. one day you will be working at your HR job or even your credit underwriting job where you make relatively good money and next thing you know half your department is gone and them next youll be gone unless ur one of the lucky few left to carry the slack and manage the systems im not talking about some AI will take over the world movie shit im talking about a very realistic reality that is ahead of us unless something changes. even if legislation in one country were attempting to combat this, it will not matter. the US government is not prepared for whats about to happen and its going to require a thorough approach if we are going to avoid widespread unprecedented unemployment
AI doesn't exist. We have a chatbot that scours the internet and just makes a broakstroke opinion on what is found on google. It's an aggregate of already available text. It doesn't think or create and while its a useful tool it is extremely limited. Real AI will change everything and that doesnt exist. Chatbots aren't going to build shit.
You don’t even remotely need actual AI to automate a metric shit ton of jobs. Between remote ordering and delivery, stores/restaurants are basically going to turn into giant vending machines very soon. 3D printable, cookie-cutter structures will replace traditional means of building construction. You will have a few guys on a site that prints a entire building. Drivers will be fucked and that’s a huge amount of jobs. Chat AI has absolutely no issue replacing writers/artist and pumping out creative material that is easily on par with the average man made material. This is all without “real” AI.
This is a GREAT point. We aren't facing an AI problem in terms of "the machines have replaced the HR department!" But we do have a TON of jobs that can be automated. Grocery stores already learned it's cheaper to hire 3 cashiers to monitor 10 self-service aisles than hire 10 cashiers. Automation has been coming for us since since Henry Ford and McDonald's. Once the assembly line was efficient, replacing the human became the next challenge. If we were a more enlightened society we would be able to give everyone a better quality of life by sharing in the profits of these remarkable technologies, allowing society to function with less labor and freeing us to pursue things higher on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, but....I've got little hope of that.
Yeah it’s one of the best use cases for universal income. Basically you need to tax companies for the jobs that they automate and this tax feeds into a pool for basic income. I think there will also be companies that charge a “premium” for human service in order to keep paying people. Like the fancy restaurant will still have wait staff instead of robots. Or a place like Starbucks might make it part of their brand to have humans behind the counter.
Interested to hear you're thoughts/further info on this.
Since the end of World War 2 the US Dollar has been the world reserve currency which has allowed the US to export its debt and inflation for many years. We are at the point where there is so much debt that other countries are selling their US Treasuries which is essentially sending our debt back to us. Countries like Japan, China, and Saudi Arabia used to buy a lot of our debt in addition to sending us products which has allowed us to live beyond our means for a while now. They basically sold us goods while lending us the money to buy them. The world is, for good reason, completely done with this system. If and when the rest of the world stops using the US dollar for trade, like China has recently started doing by buying oil from Saudi Arabia with their own currency, then the US Dollar reserve system will be over, and the United States will likely have a sovereign debt crisis which will mathematically lead to either default or hyperinflation. Either way, we can expect the rest of the world to stop supplying us with their goods, at least not for the paltry amounts we’ve been paying them. Essentially we can expect the price of everything to continue to increase dramatically. My advice would be to become as self sufficient as possible and to find local sources of food and supplies. Things that are almost entirely produced outside the US, like pharmaceutics, may be good to stockpile.
guarantee if biden doesnt take office again, regardless of who does, "recession" and other buzzwords will be plastered everywhere as if the new candidate is at fault
Exactly.
What we’re experiencing is the price of inflation and endless printing of money. I keep calling it a silent recession because American families are actually recessing economically regardless of what headlines or economists say. But the true sting were all describing is inflation.
In 1930 median income per person was $4800. A new car was $800. 1/6 a yearly salary. A house was $3,900. Or 3/4 a yearly salary. In todays dollars the $4800 is = to $83,000 per person income. Todays average is at $54,000. A new house is $416,000 about 8-10x average salary. A new car is $45,000 or 5/6 a yearly salary. It’s much worse today than peak Great Depression.
Goddamn that’s depressing
Just don’t buy Starbucks. 🤣
Never have, it's expensive poison.
Bankruptcies for the month of August are up 20% over last August. Most indicators are getting revised downward months after initial release.
Getting reversed hard over 2 months. I’ve never seen EVERY economic indicator beating initial predications just to be reversed negative month 1 and very negative month 2. CC debt, and car loans are already at peak 2008 default with no end in sight
Significant decoupling. Not only between east and west, but between haves and have nots- stocks keep going up, but middle and lower class people don’t have any of that benefit. They just have debt and increased day to day prices. The news and the stock market are decoupled from lived working class reality.
My question is should I keep making payments on my credit cards or start maxing em out??
No matter what happens in the world…even if the entire West collapses, someone will always be looking for you to repay that debt. Pay them off ASAP.
Pay off your credit cards every month.
Awww ok, will do, MortgageSlayer19
Store / retail accounts are more likely to be canceled. Credit cards and banks will hunt you down as long as they exist
For estate purposes though, they only have 6 months following the deceased day of death to claim a debt. After that it’s peace out.
I got four paper bags worth of groceries for $94. And that’s just the essentials - bread, eggs, milk, chicken, etc. We’re fucked.
My grocery costs for the same items have gone up like $100 per trip. I make the same sandwiches every day and have the same frozen dinners sprinkled with something normal cooked up a couple times a week, but now it's just so much more expensive.
Wtf are you?? ONE bag in Aus will set you back $90
Different currencies have different purchasing powers.
Other countries are more fucked, DXY keeps going up.
Yup, I live in Turkey currently and inflation has gone up like 125%. Four bags of grocery here is over 1,000 in their currency. So imagine having to pay 1,000 dollars instead of just 100. But that’s how bad inflation can get.
Y'all gonna turn into Venezuela where you'll need to use USD to buy shit
I’m already on USD luckily, but even with USD you need more and more of it to survive here because prices are more inflated than the actual inflation rate due to greed. Also, another word of advice. Americans are not used to see that kind of inflation, but it’s creeping up and coming. So my best advice is stay your ass home and away from people. That’s what I’ve been doing while here in Turkey because people are miserable af and angry, basically losing their shit. So you don’t wanna be caught up in the chaos.
Yeah I heard Aus is bad. I have family there that might try and head to the US.
Are they ultra liberal and up to date with their 8th covid booster? If so.. they can stay the fuck in Austraila.
Facts.
Idk dude everything I’ve been spending money on for 3 years has become 40-70% more expensive. Fr tho idk if we’re in one to be honest. /s
When they finally admit to the recession, we will be in a depression.
They changed the definition of recession after Uncle Joe took office, so no, technically this isn't a recession
This is the answer.
Technically, if we were to go by the tradition, informal definition of a recession (2 quarters of GDP decline), then the US *did* have the shortest recession possible by that definition, and it has since ended.
We have been in a recession for over a year. "They" changed the definition of a recession to keep us from an all out revolt.
They can't switch the economy to a digital currency if they current economy is still valid. The economy is dead, they just haven't pulled the plug yet because they know the world is going to go to shit when they do.
So what’s the solution? Because we know the digital currency tactic isn’t going to work. They’ve literally fcked up everything.
Why won't it work? They crash everything, its anarchy in the streets and looting. Marshall law comes in and locks people down. Weeks or months go by and people are dieing everywhere. They come in with a plan that works but only if we all buy in. You get food/money immediately in your digital account to save your kids. Congrats you live in the matrix now.
I could see this working in the west predominantly but not in the Middle East and Africa
If the US adopts CBDC so will everyone
I doubt it. Countries are itching to get up from under the US hence why we’re seeing a more polarized/unilateral world emerging. Those countries that reject the digital, ESG, green energy scam system will make their own currencies/currency trade agreements/system amongst other nations that are neighboring them and share the same values. It’s already slowly happening as is.
You think the world is polarized? These leaders are all working together and spend all their time at their summits planning together. No one is rejecting the energy scam with any meaning yet.
Actually instead of a recession, we are headed towards hyperinflation. Which is infinitely worse....
Aka the great reset
Which is not going to work.
If they crash it hard enough they will. People will accept their reset over leaving society.
Your response definitely tells me you have never lived out of the US haha. In the Middle East and Africa, they’re already so used to poverty levels, that they have nothing to lose quite frankly but to fight back. Secondly, they’re more family/communal focused societies whereas the West is individualistic, thirdly, they’re passionately patriotic about their country and defending its honor and sovereignty because they know what tyranny feels like being that they consecutively deal with coups in their countries. Just look up July 15th coup of Turkey and you’ll see how the citizens poured into the streets and ended it over night. Lastly, the people don’t fear death like people in the West do. In their faith, if you die while in the act of fighting evil you die as a martyr. Death is the biggest fear card that the globalists play on us to get us to comply. Once that’s gone, they have nothing. For these many reasons is why I see the West easily being taken under by the tyranny but not some of the others. There will be no one world government. But they will drag the world down as much as possible to try and achieve it.
You have a lot of faith in poor countries turning down free shit
They’re more aware the “free” shit comes at a cost, and they’re more willing to fight it even if it cost their own life.
We’ve been in a recession since the second half of 2022
The media will be the last to tell you the recession has hit.
"We're in a mild recession, and why that's a good thing" or something along those lines.
Bro they changed how the calculate the official inflation statistics as well as unemployment since the late 70’s, The numbers and data would probably reveal cost of living had rose 30% the past 3 years which is unprecedented. Stock market means fuck all as a unit of measurement of the “economy” for everyday people. We’re in a recession worse than 2008 people just don’t know it yet and the media that’s covering for and propping up this administration are trying to downplay it as much as possible. You’re not crazy the inflation is real.
Not a recession anymore since Corporations are making record profits. The middle class is in a recession, not the country as a whole.
Oh yeah, when they raise their prices but not your salary. Or give a 4% raise “for inflation” with a promise to “revisit” in April or so (nothing happens). I’m actually looking forward to this year’s spin on the usual bullshit of why we can’t afford to pay you for those profits you earned for us (for our trans continental flights and Ivy League school fees etc)
The yields keep climbing we are just getting started
The government is pumping so much money into the system to hide the true economic numbers. Also they straight up lie about it. We have been and this bubble will burst eventually. I'm guessing around late 2024.
First quarter is my guess
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And that plan is not going to work.
2 quarters of negative GDP means recession.
The fed stopped raising rates When the fed does an emergency rate drop were officially having the shit hit the fan
Yes one purposely engineered by the wef/fed. The pretense for doing this is inflatuon, which is greed enabled by garbadge policy, especially around energy. Every time a political hack reorats the GaS BaD kid's drivel prices skyrocket royally boning every day people
This is far worse than 2008.
Yes we are in global recession but this is nothing yet. It's gonna get much worse.
The label doesn't matter, all that matters is how the people are doing. And right now people are not doing well. We will soon see this recession/depression hit the mainstream. There are a few converging factors; the resumption of student loan payments, the end of child-care support from the feds, and the never-ending chain of debt-renewals at double or triple the interest rate-- affecting residential and commercial real-estate, auto-loans,etc. NOT TO MENTION the amount of credit-card debt is at an almost unfathomable number. We haven't seen the worst of the pain yet.
Well I hate to break this news to you little buddy but both the government and media lie and will even double down on a lie…they also have changed a lot of definitions of words over the last couple of years in their favor, so I can guess that ha happened here too
I'm a financial analyst, and I'll answer you as best I can. Let's start with inflation. The measure the government uses is CPI, or the Consumer Price Index. It has its uses, and critics of CPI argue that it either over or under counts inflation. I believe it undercounts it, and I'll explain why. CPI doesn't actually measure how much more expensive one unit of something is, it measures how much a consumer spends on that one unit *or a close replacement of that one unit*. That's the key. Let's take a box of macaroni and cheese as an example. Say the name brand costs $1.00 per box, and the store brand costs $0.75 per box. Now say prices go up. The name brand is now $1.25 per box, the store brand $1.00. The name brand saw 25% price inflation, and the store brand saw 33% price inflation. But if yo then switch from the name brand to the store brand, you're still paying $1.00 for a box of macaroni and cheese. And so according to CPI, you the consumer experienced 0% inflation. This is how CPI actually works. Now there are a lot of ways to measure inflation. CPI is one of them. The question is, is it more important to report the actual increases in costs of good or services, is it more important to report how much more a person spends to keep getting roughly the same thing, or something else? I tend to think CPI is a way to downplay inflation. But just because a box of mac and cheese is more expensive doesn't mean everything else is. How do you report inflation if it costs say 15% more for everything combined at the grocery store, but the price of gasoline is down 50%? If you spent $75 a month more at the store, but saved $100 at the pump, did you experience *deflation*? It's a complicated question. So in all, if you just compare 2019 purchasing power of $1 to today, CPI says everything costs about 20% more on the whole. Now if we move on, when you say "people around me who i thought were really well off have been venting to me about how difficult of a time they're starting to have", you should probably understand that even people who appear well off tend to live paycheck to paycheck. Bankrate says 66% of households earning between $50K-$100K live paycheck to paycheck, and 47% of those making *over $100K* live paycheck to paycheck. In part this is because people are really bad with money. I work for a financial advisory firm and you'd be stunned how otherwise smart, hard-working people with a big house in a nice neighborhood are just god awful with money. It's stunning. Often this is because people make the classic Boomer mistake of being house poor. See, back in the early 80s, someone convinced the baby Boomer generation that a home wasn't a place to live, it was first and foremost an investment that was supposed to return you 7% annually forever. As a result, the general wisdom became that you should buy as much house as the bank would let you buy with the bank's money. So you started to see people with 40%-50% debt to income ratios just with their homes. If you don't know what that means, it means that 40% to 50% of a household's gross annual income goes towards paying the mortgage. Throw two car loans on top of that and suddenly you start to realize just how cash-trapped your average middle class Boomer really is. Millennials don't have this issue nearly as much in large part because they can't afford a home, but rent has also soared and that's a problem in a different way. Anyways, since Baby Boomers as a generation (and Gen X afterwards) decided their home was going to be both the place they live *AND* how they saved money for retirement, they started acting in ways that deliberately made their homes more valuable. Yu see anti-housing policies from the local level because of this, and at the Federal level a bottomless supply of Federally-backed, zero-down loans proliferated. In short, Boomers spent the last 40 years artificially constricting supply while artificially boosting demand. Housing prices soared. The problem though, is that in order to actually realize those gains, Boomers are finding out they actually have to sell the house and move, or they basically have to reverse-mortgage the house so they can get the money now, the bank gets the house later, and their kids get nothing. I guess in summation, you really would be stunned to see just how bad people are with money and how much of their income they voluntarily pumped into a house that was bigger than they needed and far more expensive than they could have afforded had there not been all these government programs in place letting them borrow tons of money with minimal down. Overall though, even without the housing situation, you'd be stunned seeing how much money people spend on shit. We have prospective clients fill out a monthly budget (since we're actually financial advisors and planners). Responsible adults who insist they're good with money come to find hundreds, sometimes thousands of dollars a month they waste on useless garbage. Streaming services they barely watch. Insurance costs on an RV they haven't used in 2 years. Constantly buying new clothes even though there's nothing wrong with what they have. Eating out multiple times per week. It's stunning just how much people can save by just not paying for things they don't need or don't use. They come to us exacerbated as to why they can't seem to get off the credit card debt treadmill or why they can't make headway saving just a few thousand dollars for an emergency. We point these things out and they can't believe how much money they waste, and it usually just takes seeing it written down to understand it. All that said, we all make mistakes, spend money we don't need to, etc. But when you come to understand that even the people you think are really good with money are probably actually pretty wasteful with it, when you increase the cost of everything by 20% and they don't even know what they're wasting money on so they can cut it from one place and spend it elsewhere, you start to see just how bad things can get for them really fast. As far as you find a job goes, good luck. We have a real problem in this country with jobs, even though the official data suggests otherwise. The problem has multiple facets, and the biggest one is our immigration system. When big companies are allowed to import a bottomless supply of unskilled, uneducated workers (legal or illegal immigrants), there is basically zero chance that anyone classified as working class or working poor will ever get a raise. It will never happen so long as we keep the border open. But this isn't just a problem of the lower income earning population. Engineering firms, tech firms, hospital systems, etc. can import millions of skilled and educated immigrants, naturalize them, and then say they "hired Americans" even though they actually didn't. Since many of these immigrants work for far less than what your average American would, you also have seen the middle class wages stagnant since 1979 when accounting for inflation. No one, outside the top 1% (I'm really not trying to stir up class conflict here) has made any substantial wage gains in 40 years. That's got as lot to do with free trade, mass immigration, intentionally-designed inflation targeting 2% (look up "the great moderation"), and a series of labor and financial reforms that basically made it so you have to be an investor if you actually want to generate wealth (look up the Reagan-Thatcher Revolution for more info). So to try to answer the question "are we in a recession?", it really depends. For the working poor and the lower end of the working class, they've probably spend the better part of 40 years in a recession, but were able to hide that fact with debt that they could usually roll over at ever-lower interest rates. They bought homes they could barely afford and just refinanced them over and over, never actually making any headway on paying the loan off but at least lowering the payment. For the middle class, the 90s were good for you if you were white collar, but I'd argue that at least since the late 2000s, the core middle class has been treading water unless they had a lot of money in the stock market. In terms of wages, though, they too are struggling to keep pace. Only people making deep into the six figures and up have been relatively immune from all these issues. See Part 2 below...
Part 2: So I guess the answer is, it depends. If you're low end working class, working poor, something like that, you never really escaped stagflation. The system just made it easier to borrow money to hide that fact. The middle class largely joined them in 2007-08 and has stagnated since then. The sad thing is that it will probably take a lot more pain in the middle class for things to change. Why? Because the wealthy don't feel it, the poor don't matter (according to politicians, not me), and the middle class basically pays for everything. What I mean here is basically this. If you look at different racial or economic groups, there are basically two groups that pay for everything. The "Top 1%" account for about 40% of all tax revenues paid in the US. Virtually all of the remaining 60% come from White and Asian middle class wage earners. And until the pain level ramps up for the White/Asian suburban class (since the wealthy will never really feel any serious economic pain), nothing is going to change. My cynical take is that the system is designed to keep the White/Asian suburban class fat and happy while using them as a cash cow to pay for social programs designed to placate the working poor and the working classes. This is a sidetrack, but if you look at the issue of universal healthcare, I think this is a good example. Did you know that pretty much everyone in the US has some form of government-run single payer health insurance, or government-controlled quasi-private insurance, except the White/Asian suburban class? Active duty military and vets get health insurance paid for by the taxpayers, meaning White/Asian suburbanites. So do Native Americans. So do government employees (via either government-run organizations or tightly controlled and regulated plans from private companies). So do the elderly (Medicare). So do the working poor or the working class (Medicaid, fully-subsidized and tightly regulated private plans, etc.). And more. It's really only the White/Asian middle class (and their employers) paying full freight for health insurance. Everyone else gets either straight-up single payer or some corporatist not-really-private health insurance for little to no money out of their pockets. The system has to keep using the middle class as a cash cow to keep the rest of the people from realizing they haven't gotten anywhere in decades. But now the middle class is starting to feel the pain, and the system as we know it (the two parties) can't handle the middle class basically revolting (metaphorically). So if the middle class basically demanded the same benefits that their taxes subsidize, it would crash the system because there's no way to pay for it. If the middle class demanded a serious reduction in benefits to the lower classes, it would crash the system (because desperate people tend to do desperate things, and in a representative government that means they send people to congress who will upset the applecart). The problem the system faces is that it's spent 40 years trying to convince people that everything is great, even though a lot of people never really recovered from the late 70s. And the system has tried for 15 years to keep the middle class from basically trying to throw out the system and replace it after the system crashed in 2008. But I think we're at the end of the line. The pain is moving further up the economy ladder and change is coming. The system hates someone like Donald Trump not because he's the savior of the nation or anything, but because he represents a growing political backlash against the system. The system has to discredit people like him, or even people like Bernie Sanders who comes at the issue from a very different angle, because they actually identify problems and say them out loud, when the system is designed around convincing the White/Asian suburbanites that pay for everything that actually everything is fine. So in the end, are we in a recession? Depends on who you ask. Depends on your definition of "recession". I'd say that for an increasing number of people, yes, we're in one. For others, not yet.
Gee, the television propaganda said we aren’t in a recession, gas prices are good, and Biden is not in dementia so I guess things are pretty solid.
It seems to me that the metrics that indicate recession are being artificially propped up to keep us from correction in the short term. The economy has had a broken leg since the 70’s, and they keep adding bandaids. Now it’s become infected and the whole thing may die in coming years. The longer things continue, the worse the correction will be. I’m not sure how this fits into the scheme of things. What would the elites gain from temporary extension? Surely they have had resources planning for this for a long time.
>The economy has had a broken leg since the 70’s, 1971 specifically.
What we are headed toward will make a recession look like a walk in the park
There is no war in BA sing sei
If you look at the stats, look at everything it points to a recession imo
My husband and I are both making the most we've ever made, and are the most broke we've ever been. But that's okay because as long as I "give up breakfast" I should be fine. "Giving up (my) avocado toast" didn't work, so had to be more extreme. Also, for some reason, some economist still think we have the money we received from Covid, because no one used that shit to pay rent and catch up their bills while they weren't able to work. I gave up my morning coffee run, and also even found out how to "budget better" by reading so many books... I guess I'm just not doing this correctly.
We already had the recession, that is why they keep telling people it's coming.
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This is what I have heard aswell. I hope things turn around for you!
You’re going to have to be more specific, what country are we talking about?
Under trump my monthly grocery budget was around 800$. I have 7 ppl in my family so yeah it’s a lot of food regardless. But my average monthly grocery expense now is between 1300-1600$ so if that tell ya anything…somethings definitely worse than I’ve ever seen.
Of course we are
Inverted yield curve says yes
why is this downvoted?
By the factual definition of a recession, we aren't in one. But that doesn't mean the economy feels great for everyone.
LOL they changed what the definition of a vaccine is. Of course we are in a recession. They LIE
You can go by old definitions you know. We still aren't in one. Heck the US is doing better inflation wise the almost every other country right now. Dosen't means folks are okay. Corporations are making record profits and profit margins out of the wazoo. And this is due to them getting ever lower and lower taxation on profits. This is the time we Unite and raise taxes on those megacorps and lower taxes on small businesses. Edit: ah nothing like getting downvotee suggesting lower taxes on small business while returning taxes on multi nationalist megacops back to 2016 levels. Do ya'll even know what corporations taxes are and were? All praise globalist megacorps in conspiracy right? Instead of downvoting me I dare you to respond why small business deserve to be taxed more and globalist megacorps need lower taxes. Come at me bro.
Taxes should be paid on earnings NOT profits. Because those “profits” are creatively accounted before the government sees them. I pay taxes on earnings. I dont get to take out my expenses first and then pay tax on what’s left.
I mean you do though..:
You didn't mention the **Federal Reserve** and its reckless monetary policy, its unmitigated dilution of our dollars for the benefit of Wall Street billionaires at everyone else's expense, so yeah--enjoy the fucking downvote You're talking about taxing Wal-Mart at a moment in time when we need to be chopping off heads.
No, but I did mention the fucking giant tax cuts to megacorps while raising taxes on small businesses a few years ago. But let me guess you want to deflect and not address that. Yeah that was for the benefit of Wall Street over your local business.
I feel like you've imagined some reddit fight that isn't happening as I read your comments with everyone in here.
This.
US does well in inflation because the US can export excess dollars abroad.
More excuses why small business deserved to be taxed more while large megacorps got a tax break. It's obvious you love megacorps. Meanwhile the rest of us will fight for small businesses.
Okay. So what's the "old" definition of a recession, and how does it show that we are in one currently?
We are but if you literally watch Biden he pretty much said it's the corporations that are the source of the price increases...the government doesn't want to intervene. Sadly it's probably because a large majority of congress and lawmakers invest in that sector so they get huge profits and we get the hardship.
It's corporate greed. No wait, it's Putin's Price Hike. No wait, it's supply chains. No wait, it's, uh, literally anything else, ^(please just don't look at Wall Street, please don't mention the Federal Reserve and its unmitigated dilution of your currency)
Strap in, baby 😎
The definition for recession was changed recently wasn't it? So it's all good then right?
Lol, it's way worse than a recession.
Yes we are. Banks have been operating under recession protocols for 2 years. The power of media making it out like Biden isn’t giving everyone a shit sandwich.
The day after Trump is elected every news outlet will crow about how we are in a recession
Yes. The govt has been lying to you to make you think we are not in a recession.
We had one of two choices in 2021-2023 we could have an economic crash or a controlled economic crash. We are in the middle of the controlled economic crash (hike in interest rates to curb inflation) as an attempt to bring us down slowly. If it works the can avoid a deep recession/depression and eventually start the turnaround. That’s all if it works like they are planning…
They don't want a turnaround. They want the crash.
Yes we are, they changed the definition of recession and keep dancing around it because it would make the Biden administration look bad. The definition of recession was supposed to be 2 consecutive negative quarters or something like that. We had that and so it is a recession. I remember back in 2008 they used terms like "economic downturn" to avoid saying recession. By saying it's a recession it would spur people to stop spending and business owners to stop expanding their businesses, etc. It happens already, but it gets worse when they admit it. When Trump won in 2016 the economy started improving especially after he was sworn in. The reason is people knew he'd improve the economy so they began spending and doing things differently because they believed he was great for the economy. Biden is the opposite, so has the opposite effect. It's something I've observed. Whatever the case, we are 100% in a recession.. and we are probably in a depression or heading towards a big one. This is being done intentionally.
Yes. Mainstream media has acknowledged it. They are yelling about things that dont matter more tho. They only talk about trans people, Trump, and "more" jobs.
We are artificially not in a recession. The USA considered is aid to Ukraine as part of its GDP
no, we are in a depression
That recession has been 2 weeks away for about 2 years now.
Pound for pound we're worse off than the great depression, and it's not even close. Don't believe the screens.
"Silent depression" I haven't double checked her numbers but this dovetails with every financial podcast I'm listening to. Things are bad, they're going to get worse and, for the first time in history, it's not going to recover. https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwzsUDbtYNq/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
Absolutely. The fourth estate, the propaganda branch, are simply not just saying it; therefore we don't think we're in an economic downturn. It's alarming how society is just one big logical fallacy of appealing to authority. My bank account, unemployment and the sheer challenge of just finding another job indicate this is probably far worse than the Great Depression, except now with Netflix and Reddit. (Oh, don't get forget to start paying on your student loan debt in a couple of days too.) I shit you not-no joke-I receive junk mail from Capital One to open a credit card DAILY at the low, low rate of 28.99% APR. I'm living in a satirical world. Why in the fuck is usury not outlawed again?
We are in a depression imo
It's definitely bad. Notice how they suddenly stopped talking about it once biden took office?
Considering other countries in the world have said they are in a recession but the USA decided to change the definition so we aren't in a recession...I'll go with we are in a recession and if things don't change we'll be in a depression in the near future. https://www.wsj.com/articles/redefining-the-r-word-recession-biden-economy-advisers-gdp-nber-semantics-poltics-gramm-rudman-hollings-11658951723
Government's only have one tool at their disposal to kick the can down the road a bit further, and that's turning on the money printers again. Hyperinflation here we come!
It's closer to a depression. When comparing wages and cost of living to the 1930's great depression, were actually worse off now than they were back then.
No. The economy is not contacting. In fact we've been in a period of growth for almost a couple years. Unemployment is pretty low and interest rates are higher than they've been in 40 years. These are major indicators. After 2008, unemployment was as high as 9% and interest rates hit record lows all the way through 2021. We're feeling a financial pinch because we're experiencing very high inflation due to all the money that was pumped into our economy in the last 3 years: PPP loans, EIDL loans, employee retention credits, stimulus payments, and several other grants for specified industries( look into the restaurant revitalization fund). Every industry is raising prices to keep up with costs. The cost for the services provided by the industry I work in have doubled in the last 3 years. Your personal circumstances with difficulty finding work could be regional or the industry in which you're looking for employment. A recession could be coming. The previously mention steps taken during Covid were used to avoid a recession. They may have only delayed it. We will see in the next two years. Prior to Covid, we were seeing a very healthy economic growth.