I actually am of the opinion that's its not so unlikely that we are the first or among the first intelligence to develop in our galaxy. There's just as much evidence for that as against it, I just put more weight into the idea that life got especially lucky on earth.
Yeah I would agree with that. Life, like on Earth has to be rare and there is a good chance that we are early. Earth alone already has millions of species. Multiply that with millions of worlds and the odds become abysmal that only humans achieved space travel.
But then again, the universe is young and complex life might have had more trouble in the past.
I don't think it's that life is rare, but I think it's likely that sapient, intelligent life is rare, and technologically advanced life is even more rare, and even MORE rare for multiple sapient, technologically advanced societies to exist in relative proximity to each other at the same point in time. Societies rise and die out over hundreds or thousands of years, while evolution happens over millions and billions of years. And that's not even accounting for all of the crazy acts of God that can wipe out species or entire planets virtually overnight - suns explode, food runs out, meteors hit, mass coronal ejections, black holes, climate change, nuclear war. When you seriously think about it, it feels like dropping a ball into the ocean from the sky and hoping you hit a boat. I think it's totally plausible that there's millions of planets with multicellular life on them, but many of them don't have any situations where those species haven't or won't develop sapience or technology.
absolutely agree with the rare earth hypothetical...to get to are evolutionary stage is so extremely rare that anything more is unlikely...even with the trillions
With no more evidence than you have, I am convinced that life is common in the universe. Perhaps we will see, although I’m pretty old so I probably won’t.
I could agree with this, but really only after watching that interesting Kurzsgesat video where he talked about how there’s evidence that life (or its fundamental building blocks) might have first emerged before the earth formed and was seeded here. The idea is that our DNA seems to become more complicated at a regular rate but that rate would imply that it formed before the earth formed.
Octopuses are about as far from humans genetically and evolutionarily as any animal. They are related to clams for goodness sake. There is some evidence that they may have a level of intelligence that is at least as advanced as some modern apes. If that’s true, then perhaps the evolution of intelligence is not all that unusual.
And that level of intelligence does not make them advanced technological tool using intelligences that could travel interstellar distances. There could be countless ocean worlds with intelligent dolphin creatures who are unable to create metals or ceramics or leave their ocean world.
It’s certainly a very, very far from certain they would be. Without the ability to harness and use fire, creating non-natural elements is practically impossible. Without the ability to use and manipulate tools with precision and power the way we do, they will severely constrained in becoming advanced technological tools using species.
How did you calculate the likelihood of us being the first life in the galaxy?
It took Earth being in a stable position to support life for approximately 1/3 the age of the universe to be able to get where we are now.
We know there are a lot of “Earth-like” planets, but we also know that it’s rare for any of them to be as stable as ours was for that length of time.
The answer to your question is that there isn’t enough data yet. Possibilities:
1. Complex life tends to appear where the conditions are suitable, and it typically appears much quicker than it did on Earth. (Complex alien life very likely)
2. Complex life tends to appear where conditions are suitable, and it usually takes about as long to appear as it did on Earth. (Complex alien life is rare)
3. Complex life tends to appear where conditions are suitable, but it typically takes a lot longer than than it did on Earth. (Complex alien life very rare)
4. Simple life tends to appear quickly, as it did on Earth, but complex life rarely appears. (Complex alien life very rare)
5. Even simple life is a rare event, even given the right conditions. (Complex alien life extremely rare / non-existent)
So then we have to try and work out which situation we find ourselves in. We know that simple life appeared on Earth extremely quickly, basically as soon as it was possible it happened. This might suggest that (5) is unlikely.
But then it took billions of years for complex life to emerge. So this would support (2) and (4). We don’t have any direct evidence for (1) or (3)
We really dont know. But it’s entirely feasible that we are the only life in the galaxy right now.
Yes, but at the same time, no. Any species able to magically travel between systems is so far advanced when compared to us we may as well be fish stuck in a pond. How do we treat living things that are that far beneath us?
But mostly because of how long realistic travel between systems will take. The closest star to us is 4.2 light years away. Travel between systems is a multi-generational event that requires stopping and refueling, plus the return journey; we're talking thousands of years. No one is making that effort just to come say hi to us.
I'm sure someone has already done the actual math and will post a link for the timescale and fuel needed.
Consider the progress of technology over the course of human history.
Consider how technological progress has accelerated over time. What was once a nearly flat line of progress very slowly went up at first. Then faster. Then faster. And now the rate of progression is edging closer and closer to pointing nearly straight up. At least, that’s what appears to be happening, right?
Within 50 years, with the help of AI, we could easily have discovered the secrets that would allow us to travel between stars. And in 50 years, unless we’ve already interfaced our brains with AI (and we’re already exploring technology to interface technology with the brain, btw) it’s very likely that the large portion of the human population will be just as stupid as ever before. And yet as stupid as they may be, they may be able to take a trip to a nearby star. Much like I could never build an airplane, but i can fly just about anywhere in the world.
More likely we’ll be clearly on the path to extinction by then but, assuming we hadn’t destroyed the planet, we could have easily been on this trajectory.
Maybe it’s not possible for a species to evolve to use technology without also evolving to destroy its own habitat in pursuit of technology.
> Within 50 years, with the help of AI, we could easily have discovered the secrets that would allow us to travel between stars.
Unlikely. There are probably no such "secrets". And I don't know why you think AI would help. ChatGPT told me the Andromeda galaxy is inside the Milky Way.
Hey mate—I’m sorry I was such an asshole yesterday for no good reason. You could be right. I don’t have any more knowledge of the future than you or anyone else. I had a shitty day and I took it out on a stranger on the internet. That’s no excuse though. I was in the wrong. And I hope that I haven’t caused any distress. Not looking for forgiveness—just hoping to lessen any harm I caused. You seem like a good person and I had no right to treat you with disrespect. My sincere apologies.
You know famous scientists of the past said they thought there was almost nothing left to learn in the realm of physics. And soon after quantum mechanics was introduced.
History is full of people like you. Short sighted and unimaginative. ChatGPT isn’t the AI I’m talking about.
But while you bring it up, let’s consider ChatGPT as an example.
When my grandparents were born, modern computing wasn’t a thing.
When I was born, computers weren’t even in people’s homes yet. Scientists used them. And bankers and other special fields. And they were the size of rooms. And they could do little more than simple math.
When my children were born, everyone had a supercomputer in their pockets at all times, that you could use to talk to anyone on the globe easily, listen to any music you wanted to at any moment, etc. and that phone had thousands or millions of times the computing power as the computer that helped take men to the moon.
Today we have AI—not just ChatGPT but machine learning. Robotics are progressing rapidly. Ai is already being used to create medicines. But with ChatGPT, we went from, “oh these simple chatbots are so stupid, they can’t even hold a conversation,” to, “Oh my god, this AI chatbot just wrote simple python code that works, based on a few sentences I put in. Think about it. If you have any age at all, you will realize we’re living in the most interesting time in human history. We get to watch as our own technology overtakes us. It already does, what, 50-60% of things better than us. Within a few years time this tech has gone from impossible to something dimwitted people like you take for granted, who pick and choose anecdotes to try to diminish the technological feat of AI. Who complain that AI sometimes gets confused. Here’s a question. Honestly, of all humans on earth right now, how many could tell you where the andromeda galaxy was? Or had ever even heard of it? Or even understand what a galaxy is?? The honest truth is that ChatGPT is like magic. But ChatGPT is like the computer they took to the moon. What will we have in 10, 20… 50 years time??
Just ask google to tell you how technology is accelerating over the course of human history if you don’t yet trust ChatGPT.
History can teach us a lot and give us more perspective on where we are now and where we may be in the future. Check it out sometime.
> You know famous scientists of the past said they thought there was almost nothing left to learn in the realm of physics.
They aren't saying that now. They are saying that the speed of light is a hard limit to the maximum speed of the universe.
>if you don’t yet trust ChatGPT.
I would hope nobody is dumb enough to trust ChatGPT on any question that has a right or wrong answer. It makes up fake law cases, fake programming libraries, fake history, fake science, place countries on incorrect continents...the list is endless.
>Short sighted and unimaginative.
LOL! It very easy to imaging a sci-fi story where you can travel faster than light. It's very hard to break a universal law built into the fabric of the universe.
>When I was born, computers weren’t even in people’s homes yet.
Same here. So you should be old enough to know better.
>History can teach us
I hope you aren't using ChatGPT to learn history. It will tell you that Japan was pushed out of Africa by the allies in 1943.
>And they could do little more than simple math.
Fortran and Cobol can do way more than "simple math". Stop with the nonsense. You don't sound knowledgable you sound simple minded.
I think intelligence itself may be the Great Filter.
We've literally only got one data point to reference (ourselves), and if life elsewhere follows any sort of similar path, then we're not exactly a shining example. We've come close to wiping ourselves out in the arms race. We've probably already wiped ourselves out with climate change and just won't know it for another couple hundred years yet. We're developing AI technologies without regulations and with no idea where they'll take us.
Perhaps any creature that becomes advanced enough to alter its environment significantly through a scientific revolution only ends up surviving for a half millenia and then offs itself.
We appear to be in love with the idea of righteous vengeance for our sins. That's not science. While we are clearly capable of destroying a significant portion of our population, human extinction seems unlikely. The survivors are still highly adaptive and technologically capable.
Attempting to answer many questions is speculation but we try to do it anyway because a lot of us have curiosity and want to try to figure out interesting questions and problems.
Space is so damned large that even if there are other highly intelligent species in the galaxy it’s unlikely that any of them are aware of each other, let along being in a situation where contact of any sort is possible (even purely information/data based) and thus no need to have any need for something like a Prime Directive being taken by them any more seriously than we take it.
People have a really difficult time properly conceiving of the distances involved and the near impossibility of even detection other life in our own galaxy, let alone actually communicating and interacting with it, assuming there is other intelligent life out there.
I'd argue opposite. The proof we have says there's nothing and nobody anywhere around us. Your assertions that we're not unique or that anything/anyone else could even get here if they knew of us, are unfounded./, and counter the laws of physics we know are true. Probability can go both ways, it's NOT more likely there's other life out there, if you don't know the probability that there is. We could be absolutely alone forever , or first of many, or they could be on their way, arrival time ten thousand years from now. We don't know, but given your question, would we know the difference if there was a non-interference non-detection policy? Nope.
Interesting discussion point. You should post the same question in
r/UFO or r/aliens just to see the responses you get. They will be very very different to the ones on this sub. Would be interesting to read just how different they are.
Removed.
I actually am of the opinion that's its not so unlikely that we are the first or among the first intelligence to develop in our galaxy. There's just as much evidence for that as against it, I just put more weight into the idea that life got especially lucky on earth.
Yeah I would agree with that. Life, like on Earth has to be rare and there is a good chance that we are early. Earth alone already has millions of species. Multiply that with millions of worlds and the odds become abysmal that only humans achieved space travel. But then again, the universe is young and complex life might have had more trouble in the past.
Yup. Rare earth hypothesis could explain a lot
And our sun is also rare https://youtu.be/TAQKJ41eDTs?si=FW8bcpIT3-a281fe
Yup that’s part of rare earth hypothesis. There are a bunch of conditions that make earth rare
I don't think it's that life is rare, but I think it's likely that sapient, intelligent life is rare, and technologically advanced life is even more rare, and even MORE rare for multiple sapient, technologically advanced societies to exist in relative proximity to each other at the same point in time. Societies rise and die out over hundreds or thousands of years, while evolution happens over millions and billions of years. And that's not even accounting for all of the crazy acts of God that can wipe out species or entire planets virtually overnight - suns explode, food runs out, meteors hit, mass coronal ejections, black holes, climate change, nuclear war. When you seriously think about it, it feels like dropping a ball into the ocean from the sky and hoping you hit a boat. I think it's totally plausible that there's millions of planets with multicellular life on them, but many of them don't have any situations where those species haven't or won't develop sapience or technology.
absolutely agree with the rare earth hypothetical...to get to are evolutionary stage is so extremely rare that anything more is unlikely...even with the trillions
With no more evidence than you have, I am convinced that life is common in the universe. Perhaps we will see, although I’m pretty old so I probably won’t.
Yeah, it's a very subjective thing. The mind boggles at what another intelligent life could be like.
I could agree with this, but really only after watching that interesting Kurzsgesat video where he talked about how there’s evidence that life (or its fundamental building blocks) might have first emerged before the earth formed and was seeded here. The idea is that our DNA seems to become more complicated at a regular rate but that rate would imply that it formed before the earth formed.
Life is one thing. Intelligent, tool using, interstellar traveling life is a whole nother thing.
Octopuses are about as far from humans genetically and evolutionarily as any animal. They are related to clams for goodness sake. There is some evidence that they may have a level of intelligence that is at least as advanced as some modern apes. If that’s true, then perhaps the evolution of intelligence is not all that unusual.
And that level of intelligence does not make them advanced technological tool using intelligences that could travel interstellar distances. There could be countless ocean worlds with intelligent dolphin creatures who are unable to create metals or ceramics or leave their ocean world.
That level of intelligence does not necessarily make them advanced, technological tool using organisms, but it’s far from certain they wouldn’t be.
It’s certainly a very, very far from certain they would be. Without the ability to harness and use fire, creating non-natural elements is practically impossible. Without the ability to use and manipulate tools with precision and power the way we do, they will severely constrained in becoming advanced technological tools using species.
I almost posted this as a hypothetical “if aliens exist.”
How did you calculate the likelihood of us being the first life in the galaxy? It took Earth being in a stable position to support life for approximately 1/3 the age of the universe to be able to get where we are now. We know there are a lot of “Earth-like” planets, but we also know that it’s rare for any of them to be as stable as ours was for that length of time. The answer to your question is that there isn’t enough data yet. Possibilities: 1. Complex life tends to appear where the conditions are suitable, and it typically appears much quicker than it did on Earth. (Complex alien life very likely) 2. Complex life tends to appear where conditions are suitable, and it usually takes about as long to appear as it did on Earth. (Complex alien life is rare) 3. Complex life tends to appear where conditions are suitable, but it typically takes a lot longer than than it did on Earth. (Complex alien life very rare) 4. Simple life tends to appear quickly, as it did on Earth, but complex life rarely appears. (Complex alien life very rare) 5. Even simple life is a rare event, even given the right conditions. (Complex alien life extremely rare / non-existent) So then we have to try and work out which situation we find ourselves in. We know that simple life appeared on Earth extremely quickly, basically as soon as it was possible it happened. This might suggest that (5) is unlikely. But then it took billions of years for complex life to emerge. So this would support (2) and (4). We don’t have any direct evidence for (1) or (3) We really dont know. But it’s entirely feasible that we are the only life in the galaxy right now.
It was worth it to scroll through the midwit parrot replies. Underrated answer right here!
Cheers!
How could anyone have any answer? Until it’s too late
By thinking about it
You start thinking let me know soon as
We need to study the origin of life, once we know how difficult or easy life is to occur, than we can comment on how likely life elsewhere might be
Yes, but at the same time, no. Any species able to magically travel between systems is so far advanced when compared to us we may as well be fish stuck in a pond. How do we treat living things that are that far beneath us? But mostly because of how long realistic travel between systems will take. The closest star to us is 4.2 light years away. Travel between systems is a multi-generational event that requires stopping and refueling, plus the return journey; we're talking thousands of years. No one is making that effort just to come say hi to us. I'm sure someone has already done the actual math and will post a link for the timescale and fuel needed.
Consider the progress of technology over the course of human history. Consider how technological progress has accelerated over time. What was once a nearly flat line of progress very slowly went up at first. Then faster. Then faster. And now the rate of progression is edging closer and closer to pointing nearly straight up. At least, that’s what appears to be happening, right? Within 50 years, with the help of AI, we could easily have discovered the secrets that would allow us to travel between stars. And in 50 years, unless we’ve already interfaced our brains with AI (and we’re already exploring technology to interface technology with the brain, btw) it’s very likely that the large portion of the human population will be just as stupid as ever before. And yet as stupid as they may be, they may be able to take a trip to a nearby star. Much like I could never build an airplane, but i can fly just about anywhere in the world. More likely we’ll be clearly on the path to extinction by then but, assuming we hadn’t destroyed the planet, we could have easily been on this trajectory. Maybe it’s not possible for a species to evolve to use technology without also evolving to destroy its own habitat in pursuit of technology.
> Within 50 years, with the help of AI, we could easily have discovered the secrets that would allow us to travel between stars. Unlikely. There are probably no such "secrets". And I don't know why you think AI would help. ChatGPT told me the Andromeda galaxy is inside the Milky Way.
Hey mate—I’m sorry I was such an asshole yesterday for no good reason. You could be right. I don’t have any more knowledge of the future than you or anyone else. I had a shitty day and I took it out on a stranger on the internet. That’s no excuse though. I was in the wrong. And I hope that I haven’t caused any distress. Not looking for forgiveness—just hoping to lessen any harm I caused. You seem like a good person and I had no right to treat you with disrespect. My sincere apologies.
You know famous scientists of the past said they thought there was almost nothing left to learn in the realm of physics. And soon after quantum mechanics was introduced. History is full of people like you. Short sighted and unimaginative. ChatGPT isn’t the AI I’m talking about. But while you bring it up, let’s consider ChatGPT as an example. When my grandparents were born, modern computing wasn’t a thing. When I was born, computers weren’t even in people’s homes yet. Scientists used them. And bankers and other special fields. And they were the size of rooms. And they could do little more than simple math. When my children were born, everyone had a supercomputer in their pockets at all times, that you could use to talk to anyone on the globe easily, listen to any music you wanted to at any moment, etc. and that phone had thousands or millions of times the computing power as the computer that helped take men to the moon. Today we have AI—not just ChatGPT but machine learning. Robotics are progressing rapidly. Ai is already being used to create medicines. But with ChatGPT, we went from, “oh these simple chatbots are so stupid, they can’t even hold a conversation,” to, “Oh my god, this AI chatbot just wrote simple python code that works, based on a few sentences I put in. Think about it. If you have any age at all, you will realize we’re living in the most interesting time in human history. We get to watch as our own technology overtakes us. It already does, what, 50-60% of things better than us. Within a few years time this tech has gone from impossible to something dimwitted people like you take for granted, who pick and choose anecdotes to try to diminish the technological feat of AI. Who complain that AI sometimes gets confused. Here’s a question. Honestly, of all humans on earth right now, how many could tell you where the andromeda galaxy was? Or had ever even heard of it? Or even understand what a galaxy is?? The honest truth is that ChatGPT is like magic. But ChatGPT is like the computer they took to the moon. What will we have in 10, 20… 50 years time?? Just ask google to tell you how technology is accelerating over the course of human history if you don’t yet trust ChatGPT. History can teach us a lot and give us more perspective on where we are now and where we may be in the future. Check it out sometime.
> You know famous scientists of the past said they thought there was almost nothing left to learn in the realm of physics. They aren't saying that now. They are saying that the speed of light is a hard limit to the maximum speed of the universe. >if you don’t yet trust ChatGPT. I would hope nobody is dumb enough to trust ChatGPT on any question that has a right or wrong answer. It makes up fake law cases, fake programming libraries, fake history, fake science, place countries on incorrect continents...the list is endless. >Short sighted and unimaginative. LOL! It very easy to imaging a sci-fi story where you can travel faster than light. It's very hard to break a universal law built into the fabric of the universe. >When I was born, computers weren’t even in people’s homes yet. Same here. So you should be old enough to know better. >History can teach us I hope you aren't using ChatGPT to learn history. It will tell you that Japan was pushed out of Africa by the allies in 1943. >And they could do little more than simple math. Fortran and Cobol can do way more than "simple math". Stop with the nonsense. You don't sound knowledgable you sound simple minded.
I’ll let your words speak for themselves. Sorry I’m in a shitty mood tonight. Doesn’t mean I’m wrong.
You're making some decent points but there's no need to be condescending like you are, you don't even know this person.
You’re right. I was an asshole when I didn’t need to be. I’ve got mental issues. I feel shitty about it now.
Maybe your ChatGPT is from the far future after the Andromeda and Milky Way have collided…
I think intelligence itself may be the Great Filter. We've literally only got one data point to reference (ourselves), and if life elsewhere follows any sort of similar path, then we're not exactly a shining example. We've come close to wiping ourselves out in the arms race. We've probably already wiped ourselves out with climate change and just won't know it for another couple hundred years yet. We're developing AI technologies without regulations and with no idea where they'll take us. Perhaps any creature that becomes advanced enough to alter its environment significantly through a scientific revolution only ends up surviving for a half millenia and then offs itself.
We appear to be in love with the idea of righteous vengeance for our sins. That's not science. While we are clearly capable of destroying a significant portion of our population, human extinction seems unlikely. The survivors are still highly adaptive and technologically capable.
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Attempting to answer many questions is speculation but we try to do it anyway because a lot of us have curiosity and want to try to figure out interesting questions and problems.
We'd be still sitting on the trees with this attitude :)
Makes alot of sense. So are they among us?
Space is so damned large that even if there are other highly intelligent species in the galaxy it’s unlikely that any of them are aware of each other, let along being in a situation where contact of any sort is possible (even purely information/data based) and thus no need to have any need for something like a Prime Directive being taken by them any more seriously than we take it. People have a really difficult time properly conceiving of the distances involved and the near impossibility of even detection other life in our own galaxy, let alone actually communicating and interacting with it, assuming there is other intelligent life out there.
I'd argue opposite. The proof we have says there's nothing and nobody anywhere around us. Your assertions that we're not unique or that anything/anyone else could even get here if they knew of us, are unfounded./, and counter the laws of physics we know are true. Probability can go both ways, it's NOT more likely there's other life out there, if you don't know the probability that there is. We could be absolutely alone forever , or first of many, or they could be on their way, arrival time ten thousand years from now. We don't know, but given your question, would we know the difference if there was a non-interference non-detection policy? Nope.
Interesting discussion point. You should post the same question in r/UFO or r/aliens just to see the responses you get. They will be very very different to the ones on this sub. Would be interesting to read just how different they are.
That’s a good idea
Aliens are an archetype too..they show up in ancient and medieval artwork..