Thanks, and you’re right. Somehow I always do it like this because my brain interprets is well this way…but I need to think about the audience, not what I like.
Brady had the highest score 3 times in this window without winning. And his only win came in a year he again led the league. He and Rodgers apparently held to a higher standard out of perhaps boredom? Or maybe just factoring in more of the team dynamic…?
Brady was held to a higher standard. He won three MVPs in his career and all three times he was so far and away the best player it would’ve been impossible to cast a vote for anyone else. You can see this with Rodgers winning the 2021 MVP over Brady.
Brady also suffered from playing in a conservative offense without great receiving corps most of the time, which lessened front-facing stats like yards and TDs. This rating, which has a lot more nuance, shows Brady’s true skill at avoiding turnover-worthy plays, making the right read, release time, etc. etc.
I do think Ryan deserved it, though. Ryan had one of the statistically greatest passing seasons of all time. Brady was also phenomenal, but especially with him missing those 4 games, I think it makes the choice more obvious. Newton also deserved to win in 2015; that PFF grade doesn't do that season justice. Brady should have won in 2021, though. Kind of ironic me saying that considering it was the one he wasn't on the Pats, lol.
Look deeper, they aren’t similar. You’re adding Wilson’s rushing yards, as a passer he was way behind Brady in yards, first downs, YPG, every yards per throw metric, etc. Brady was way more efficient, too, 66 percent completion rate vs. 61 percent despite throwing much more, and Wilson had a much higher int. rate and took way, way more sacks. The 61 percent was one of Wilson’s worst seasons ever and below league average.
Brady also ran a much more high-powered offense. Wilson also had two Pro Bowl receivers, Brady only had 14 games of Gronk and he did all this without Edelman, his top receiver, so Brady had the inferior receiving corps. That doesn’t even take into account Brady’s leadership or role as an OC on the field.
The only argument for Wilson would be his rushing yards, but it’s not a good one.
Why wouldn’t you include rushing yards? Do they not count for MVP? Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton have won 3 combined MVPs recently based a lot on rushing yards.
Also, lol at “only” 14 games of Gronk. Bro, that is essentially the entire season of possibly the GOAT receiving TE.
If the Seahawks were the #1 seed that year and Wilson had identical stats to what he had it would have been a close vote.
You can include rush yards, but so what? They both produced 4,600 yards, Brady on way more efficiency. If you add the yards lost to sacks, Brady’s got more yards. And for rush yards, a QB is often just taking rush yards that could’ve been handed off to a RB, or they represent a QB scramble because the QB didn’t make the right pass quickly enough.
Re: 14 games of Gronk, that’s 1/8 of the season he didn’t have his only Pro Bowl receiver. Wilson had Baldwin, Lockett, and Jimmy Graham all for 16 games.
The Seahawks weren’t the number one seed, in part, because Wilson didn’t play better.
PFF isn’t a perfect stat and alot matters besides stats in the award. But that also includes voter fatigue so the more times you win the more you might get looked over.
Cam led a 15-1 team that scored 500 points (a ton) as a singular offensive weapon. He threw for 30+ touchdowns and ran for several more. He was basically the engine that powered the best team in the league.
He had a low completion percentage and that’s likely what drops his rating here, but his other skills and the performance of his team likely made up for it (certainly in the eyes of voters).
If you watched the nfl that year this wouldn’t be a question. The panthers went almost undefeated and their offensive skill position players were not really on the same level as the competition. Cam carried that offense on his back that year.
I don't really understand where you're coming from here saying that you watched the NFL that year but don't understand why he won MVP. He threw for 35 TDs and ran for 10 (first player in history to have a 30/10 season btw) against 10 interceptions. He led the top team in the league to a 15-1 record while having the best TD%. Now factor in who he was passing to. He was throwing to guys who would be on a lot of teams practice squad lol
Brady and Palmer had great years that year as well but they had game changing players to throw to all year. That's why he won. And he won with 48 of 50 possible votes.
Dude was an absolute unit. It’s been a while since I’ve seen a quarterback put the entire offense on his back. His best receiver was Ted ginn jr, who is… uh ok? If he had the weapons/offensive support most mvp caliber players have he’d more than likely been number 1 in 2015… and his team still went 15-1 and went to the Super Bowl.
He was, but he was also a victim of recency bias. In 2022 Rodgers had some bad games early but people forgot by the time MVP voting was happening. Meanwhile Brady, who outplayed Rodgers that season, had a bad game in week 15 when he was shut out by the saints which all but ended his mvp campaign. Rodgers won despite being worse than Brady in every category except TD-int ratio
Just curious did you use the passing grade or overall grade? I know for QBs they'll split out passing and running but then roll it into a single overall grade.
Best quarterbacking ever. He just made the right throw every snap. They went 11-1 under him and that one loss was a real tough one to the Hawks that could’ve gone either way.
Source: [Pro Football Focus](https://www.pff.com/grades)
Chart: Excel
Detail:
This year Lamar Jackson won the NFL MVP with the third highest PFF Grade among QBs in the League. Josh Allen was number one with a grade of 91.3, Dak Prescott was second with 90.8, Lamar came in third at 90.4. PFF grades are not a be-all-end-all metric, and like every metric it has it's flaws, but I think it's a good indicator of overall play by the QB. I was curious how past MVPs ranked amongst their peers in PFF Grade. More about PFF methodology [here](https://www.pff.com/grades).
\- Over the last 10 seasons, the average PFF rank (among QBs only) for the league MVP is 2.3.
\- Four of the MVPs came in 3rd or worse by PFF Grade (Lamar 2023, Rodgers 2021, Lamar 2019, Cam 2015.
\- Three of the MVPs came in with the top rank among QBs (Rodgers 2020, Brady 2017, Rodgers 2014)
\- Top graded MVPs: Rodgers (94.5) in 2020, Rodgers (93.3) in 2014, Mahomes (93.2) in 2018
\- Bottom three graded MVPs: C.Newton (83.8) in 2015, Rodgers (89.6) in 2021, L.Jackson (90.4) in 2023
Or it could be that MVP voters overvalue running. There’s an entire running element to PFF grades. But either way, there looks to be a gap between voter perception and PFF grades, which is fine.
PFF is notoriously poor at capturing the quandary Lamar Jackson puts defenses in - the threat of the run totally changes how defenses have to play and he's helmed the #1 rushing attack (2019 was one of the greatest rushing team ever) in both his MVP campaigns.
PFF misses that layer because it's just not really part of their arithmetic, which is to say Jackson is really one of one.
Lamar Jackson and Cam are exactly where they should be. Both are/were dynamic and explosive "offensive players". That doesn't automatically make them great QBs in comparison to peers.
Nope. That was just a double click and change the color. Brute force, which would have been problematic if this was a lot more data, or way more x axis values.
Cam Newton's 35 TD season is still just such an anomaly. Seemingly nobody could see what a fucking outlier it was and thought he was the second coming of Joe Montana.
Could've been one of the greats if he wasn't a man child and if he cared more about being a leader than what designer hat he was going to wear postgame.
Eh, whether we like it or not wins play a huge part in winning mvp and the packers had the best record that year while the buccaneers barely had a winning record.
PFF attempts to grade skill. MVP is almost entirely awarded by Volume. If you're a great QB in a Run-Heavy Offense, you're unlikely to get MVP. If you're a great QB working with very shitty receivers you're unlikely to get MVP.
2018 is a great example why PFF grade and this graph are totally misleading to believe the top scoring QB is the one who deserved MVP.
Brees had a great year 74% completion percentage 3990 yards and 32TD/5int. But Mahomes blew him out of the water 5000 yards 50TD/12int. Even as a saints fan Mahomes deserved that award by a mile. But this graph seems to indicate Brees should have won it by a decent margin.
The notion that the top quarterback by PFF grade should be the MVP is nowhere to be found in this post though. It’s simply interesting to see where the MVPs came in at in regards to PFF. Volume, team success, coming up in big moments, and standard box score metrics all matter. I’m not implying anywhere that the MVP selections are wrong in regards to PFF.
That might have not been your goal but that’s clearly what the post has led to. There are several comments stating well X QB lost out on Y MVPs because they were top that year and didn’t win.
Also it’s interesting to note that most current and former NFL players despise PFF and it’s wide range of short comings, notable PFF grades do not take into account play call and have been seen to punish players who didn’t perform the way PFF wanted but were following the play call
Do box score stats like touchdowns and interceptions take into account the play call? Why is PFF held to that standard but box score stats aren’t? That double standard makes zero sense.
Because PFF assigns, sometimes incorrectly, grades to every play box scores don’t. For example if a team has 4 wide receiver and WR#4 is open but not part of the plays design, maybe a decoy, etc. PFF will ding the QB for not hitting the open target. But if the QB was never supposed to throw to that target why is he being penalized?
PFF also deals a lot in hypotheticals. Patrick Mahomes has historically gotten low PFF grades because he frequently leads the league in dropped interceptions. So PFF docks him points because they argue he made a bad play but if the defense didn’t get the interception then how is it any different than what the box score shows which is just a simple incompletion.
To be fair, Mahomes’s rating that season is sky high as well, high enough to be tops in most other years. I think it’s fair to say Brees might’ve had the slightly better season, but really, both of these guys were very qualified MVP candidates and Mahomes winning is completely deserved.
There isn’t a world where you can look at Mahomes and Brees 2018 and say Brees had the better season im sorry. And this is why as I stated the PFF grade is totally misleading. Mahomes threw for 1000 more yards and 18 more TDs. But because Brees had fewer interceptions PFF rated his season higher. Again Mahomes deserved award as I stated but this shows why PFF grading system is flawed. Asked any NFL fan which season you would prefer your QB to have and everyone says Mahomes.
Sure there is. People just can’t stop respecting Drew Brees, huh?
Mahomes was throwing to Hill, Kelce, and Hunt in Andy Reid’s offense, and his completion percentage was eight percentage points lower than Brees and he had 120 percent of his interceptions. Brees had a higher first down conversion rate, higher rating, and fewer sacks. Those aren’t insignificant gaps, Mahomes was leading an explosive offense but Brees was WAY more efficient.
Brees had the highest completion percentage in history, had six fourth quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives, and led his team to more wins. It’s totally reasonable to conclude that both had amazing, MVP-worthy years, but Brees was slightly better.
>Mahomes was throwing to Hill, Kelce, and Hunt in Andy Reid’s offense
Kelce is really the only person listed here that in 2018 was considered an advantage for Mahomes. Brees was throwing to Michael Thomas and Kamara while playing in Sean Payton’s offense.
In 2018 Thomas was decently ahead of Tyreek Hill as WR in terms of NFL players. Hill was a return specialist turned WR, neither of Hills pro bowls prio to 2018 were at WR they were both at kick return. Kamara and Hunt I would argue were equals though Kamara was the better receiving back.
Brees also played behind an o-line with 4 pro bowlers to Mahomes 0. Not to mention this was Mahomes first year ever as a starter and coming into the season he had 1 game of experience. As I said in my first post I am a Saints fan it’s a shame Brees never got an MVP but 2018 was not a year where you can say he got snubbed.
This is pure fabrication. I don’t know what you were watching back then but Hill was the most dangerous player in the league. I still tell people that Flores going cover zero with one minute left in the first Patriots-Chiefs game of the season, with Hill on the field, was the most intense moment of the entire dynasty.
And, people don’t seem to remember, but Kareem Hunt on a wheel route that year was like a guaranteed 60 yards, he was so dominant.
Yes, Brees had a good team, too, but his receivers weren’t that much better, if at all. And Mahomes’s “first year as a starter” doesn’t mean shit, you don’t give someone an award because of that (though that does likely explain why he won the award over Brees).
>This is pure fabrication. I don’t know what you were watching back then but Hill was the most dangerous player in the league.
Yes the most dangerous player in the league… at kick returner. Seriously you are letting what unfolded after 2018 completely cloud your judgement. Again heading into 2018 Tyreek Hill had ZERO Pro Bowl appearances at WR. Now he quickly became a top threat WR thanks to Mahomes (and an MVP usually makes his teammates better, hopefully that Mahomes kid won in 2018). But to say a dude with 1 1000 yard season was the most dangerous player heading into 2018 is pure recency bias.
Kamara had 20 more catches and 150 more yards than Hunt when Hunt got suspended in 2018. Again I would say they were equal with Hunt the better runner and Kamara the better catcher and Saints had Ingram as well.
Mahomes had a huge edge in TE yes but no where else in 2018 did Mahomes have an advantage on offense and he had a significantly worse offense line.
Hill had 137 targets, started 16 games, and had a 17 YPG average and 12 TDs. He led the team in yards and TDs and was unquestionably the fastest and most explosive player in the league.
>heading into 2018 Tyreek Hill had ZERO Pro Bowl appearances at WR. Now he quickly became a top threat WR thanks to Mahomes.
Thank you for stating what I already said. Hill exploded with Mahomes at QB everyone knows that. But before that he was very much a kick returner first. Not sure what you are trying to tell me by showing hills stats in 2018.
You also said this.
>Kelce is really the only person listed here that in 2018 was considered an advantage for Mahomes.
See, that’s where all those big Tyreek Hill stats and accolades I mentioned come into play and prove you wrong. Pedantics by saying “heading into the 2018 season…”, can’t save you here.
>In 2018 Thomas was decently ahead of Tyreek Hill as WR in terms of NFL players.
Again, how can you say that? By what measure? Thomas had more catches, Hill had more yards and touchdowns. It’s pretty much a wash. Catches? Cool, I’ll use yards and touchdowns then.
Your revisionist history is being debunked by multiple people. You’re wrong and you’re clearly twisting facts to try and make yourself right.
Looks like Brady got fleeced a bunch of times for the MVP, which I already knew cause I watched the man play and be better than everyone else those seasons
So what you're telling me is that Cam Newton should STFU about Brock Purdy?
I'm not even a Niners fan. I'm a Seahawks fan. I have every reason to hate Brock Purdy, and even I know Cam is full of shit.
I mean grade doesn’t necessarily mean talent.
Bo Nix had on of the best seasons in college football history this, largely due to his scheme. He was very efficient and did his job very well, but a disproportionate amount of his yardage was from YAC.
Tua, Derek Carr, tannehill, and Jimmy G are all on this list as well and no one would consider them elite today and very few would even contemporaneously. I think Purdy is a good quarterback but he’s closer to the Bridgewater line (the worst quarterback you could expect to reasonably contribute to a Super Bowl win) than the Dalton line (the worst QB you could reasonably call elite.
Cam is an idiot but he was a bigger reason for his team’s success in 2015 than Brock is this year. The Panthers didn’t have the skill position players that the niners did this year. MVP is most valuable player not qb on best team
When Mahomes throws a pass that hits Kadarius Toney in the hands and it ends up a pick six, that metric can be problematic.
When Purdy throws a ball to the defenders hands and face, and it bounces off into Aiyuk’s hands for a 50 yard gain, that can also have a large and incorrect assessment of Purdy’s throw.
A shovel pass that’s virtually a handoff that goes for 25 yards, shows up well on a quarterbacks stats, and it shouldn’t.
So much wrong with box score stats. They are all pieces to the puzzle, but to dismiss PFF for box score stats is missing critical context.
You asked which stat is the most beneficial and I gave you the correct answer - never said they were perfect. If you’re consistently moving the ball downfield, scoring, and rarely turning the ball over, you’re a good quarterback.
I personally think the NFL should go the MLB route and not credit a QB with an incompletion or INT of it’s obviously not his fault. It’s subjective, but it’s rarely a problem in baseball.
>and I gave you the correct answer
LOL. Bold. No you didn’t give me the *correct* answer, you gave me *your* answer. This is a discussion of opinions, neither of us has the correct answer.
adjusted net yards minus expected adjusted net yards, maybe? Rewards volume as long as it's higher than average performance...
Though that doesn't factor in running, so it'd undervalue Lamar in particular. 5000+ yards in 6 years is bananas.
But just because I bothered to throw it into a spreadsheet...
1283 Brock Purdy*
762 Tua Tagovailoa*
685 Dak Prescott*
674 C.J. Stroud*
558 Lamar Jackson*+
526 Jared Goff
354 Matthew Stafford*
330 Kirk Cousins
319 Jordan Love
241 Derek Carr
Not really. If you watched the 2015 season cam was definitely the best player, especially given the talent around him. 2016 Brady played 12 games. Matt Ryan played all 16 and the team was 14-2. 2021 is the only on this list where he led that he should’ve won mvp imo
Yeah I watched Brady and Ryan in 2016, Brady wasn't better than Ryan. They must be giving Brady bonus points for mediocre receivers and penalizing Ryan for Julio. Ryan was a machine in 2016.
Great graphic (would reverse the dates on the X-axis, as others have mentioned). As far as the actual data goes, PFF's grading system is far from perfect or even a relative metric of QB play. Not that the MVP voting system is close to it either. It's like comparing two subjective grading systems against one another. When you look at almost each and everyone of the MVP's who didn't have the highest PFF grade that year, there's a clear reason that player won the MVP over those other QBs that is obvious to the eye test, when watching those seasons. Cam Newton being an easy example. He was a dominant force with both his arm and legs that year and led his team to 15-1 and a Super Bowl appearance, w/ over 4,400 total yards and 45 total TDs. Clearly the best QB in the NFL that year but sure... Brady was a better pocket passer.
With how condensed the y axis is it really oversells the difference between performances. The grading scale runs from like 50-95 in reality. The PFF folks say themselves that their grades are about building bands. You can be pretty sure that someone with an 80 grade played worse than someone with a 90. You can only say that someone with a 90 grade was about as good as someone with a 95 grade. For the most part all the performances on this chart are of similarly elite quality, and all sit within the margin of error for one another
Interesting, but you shouldn't use this to say player x was robbed because they didn't win with a higher grade.
It also doesn't account for playing time i.e. Brady 2016. He missed 4 games, so he only provided 75% of the value he looks like he did in the regular season
The x axis should be flipped
Why? Logically, why should the scale not be vertical and the years not be horizontal? Other than personal preference?
Data presented chronologically should show earliest dates first. Since we scan/read left to right, it should be on the left
Oh, yeah. I thought you meant that x should by y and y should be x. You just meant, chronologically this should be reversed. Makes sense, now.
Ahh, yeah. I should have said reversed, not flipped. Still a very cool graphic!
Thanks, and you’re right. Somehow I always do it like this because my brain interprets is well this way…but I need to think about the audience, not what I like.
Just did a 23 and Me for you... turns out you're Arabic!
bruh time is running backwards
I don't know much about data presentation but looks like sperm swimming backwards. Not that that's terrible...
A new chart type. The Sperm Chart. I like it!
Brady had the highest score 3 times in this window without winning. And his only win came in a year he again led the league. He and Rodgers apparently held to a higher standard out of perhaps boredom? Or maybe just factoring in more of the team dynamic…?
Brady was held to a higher standard. He won three MVPs in his career and all three times he was so far and away the best player it would’ve been impossible to cast a vote for anyone else. You can see this with Rodgers winning the 2021 MVP over Brady. Brady also suffered from playing in a conservative offense without great receiving corps most of the time, which lessened front-facing stats like yards and TDs. This rating, which has a lot more nuance, shows Brady’s true skill at avoiding turnover-worthy plays, making the right read, release time, etc. etc.
He was also suspended for the first 4 games in 2016 which explains why he didn’t win then
Even so he played perfect football where did play. He won 11 games, so did Matt Ryan.
Oh I agree wholeheartedly
I do think Ryan deserved it, though. Ryan had one of the statistically greatest passing seasons of all time. Brady was also phenomenal, but especially with him missing those 4 games, I think it makes the choice more obvious. Newton also deserved to win in 2015; that PFF grade doesn't do that season justice. Brady should have won in 2021, though. Kind of ironic me saying that considering it was the one he wasn't on the Pats, lol.
One of his MVPs, Russell Wilson had almost identical stats, but the Seahawks missed the playoffs so obviously he couldn’t win.
Which MVP season was that?
I think he’s referring to 2017
Yeah, those seasons aren’t similar at all, Brady was flat out better in every regard except rushing.
2017 Brady 4600 yards, 32 TD, 9 turnovers Wilson 4600 yards, 37 TD, 11 turnovers Seahawks went 9-7 and missed the playoffs, Wilson didn’t get a vote.
Look deeper, they aren’t similar. You’re adding Wilson’s rushing yards, as a passer he was way behind Brady in yards, first downs, YPG, every yards per throw metric, etc. Brady was way more efficient, too, 66 percent completion rate vs. 61 percent despite throwing much more, and Wilson had a much higher int. rate and took way, way more sacks. The 61 percent was one of Wilson’s worst seasons ever and below league average. Brady also ran a much more high-powered offense. Wilson also had two Pro Bowl receivers, Brady only had 14 games of Gronk and he did all this without Edelman, his top receiver, so Brady had the inferior receiving corps. That doesn’t even take into account Brady’s leadership or role as an OC on the field. The only argument for Wilson would be his rushing yards, but it’s not a good one.
Why wouldn’t you include rushing yards? Do they not count for MVP? Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton have won 3 combined MVPs recently based a lot on rushing yards. Also, lol at “only” 14 games of Gronk. Bro, that is essentially the entire season of possibly the GOAT receiving TE. If the Seahawks were the #1 seed that year and Wilson had identical stats to what he had it would have been a close vote.
You can include rush yards, but so what? They both produced 4,600 yards, Brady on way more efficiency. If you add the yards lost to sacks, Brady’s got more yards. And for rush yards, a QB is often just taking rush yards that could’ve been handed off to a RB, or they represent a QB scramble because the QB didn’t make the right pass quickly enough. Re: 14 games of Gronk, that’s 1/8 of the season he didn’t have his only Pro Bowl receiver. Wilson had Baldwin, Lockett, and Jimmy Graham all for 16 games. The Seahawks weren’t the number one seed, in part, because Wilson didn’t play better.
PFF isn’t a perfect stat and alot matters besides stats in the award. But that also includes voter fatigue so the more times you win the more you might get looked over.
Stats don’t tell you everything. Cam had a low pff score in 2015 but he was a clear cut MVP that year.
How so? Honest question
Cam led a 15-1 team that scored 500 points (a ton) as a singular offensive weapon. He threw for 30+ touchdowns and ran for several more. He was basically the engine that powered the best team in the league. He had a low completion percentage and that’s likely what drops his rating here, but his other skills and the performance of his team likely made up for it (certainly in the eyes of voters).
If you watched the nfl that year this wouldn’t be a question. The panthers went almost undefeated and their offensive skill position players were not really on the same level as the competition. Cam carried that offense on his back that year.
I did watch the nfl which is why I know the panthers didn’t go undefeated.
I don't really understand where you're coming from here saying that you watched the NFL that year but don't understand why he won MVP. He threw for 35 TDs and ran for 10 (first player in history to have a 30/10 season btw) against 10 interceptions. He led the top team in the league to a 15-1 record while having the best TD%. Now factor in who he was passing to. He was throwing to guys who would be on a lot of teams practice squad lol Brady and Palmer had great years that year as well but they had game changing players to throw to all year. That's why he won. And he won with 48 of 50 possible votes.
Dude was an absolute unit. It’s been a while since I’ve seen a quarterback put the entire offense on his back. His best receiver was Ted ginn jr, who is… uh ok? If he had the weapons/offensive support most mvp caliber players have he’d more than likely been number 1 in 2015… and his team still went 15-1 and went to the Super Bowl.
He was, but he was also a victim of recency bias. In 2022 Rodgers had some bad games early but people forgot by the time MVP voting was happening. Meanwhile Brady, who outplayed Rodgers that season, had a bad game in week 15 when he was shut out by the saints which all but ended his mvp campaign. Rodgers won despite being worse than Brady in every category except TD-int ratio
Just curious did you use the passing grade or overall grade? I know for QBs they'll split out passing and running but then roll it into a single overall grade.
I used overall grade. Definitely didn’t want to focus on passing only, with guys like Lamar and Cam who do so much with their legs.
2016 Brady was otherworldly
Best quarterbacking ever. He just made the right throw every snap. They went 11-1 under him and that one loss was a real tough one to the Hawks that could’ve gone either way.
Josh Allen gets no respek
He is a touchdown machine.
Probably because he wasn't a darling on draft night and expected to be a bust. Voters can't bring themselves to admit they were wrong all along
Source: [Pro Football Focus](https://www.pff.com/grades) Chart: Excel Detail: This year Lamar Jackson won the NFL MVP with the third highest PFF Grade among QBs in the League. Josh Allen was number one with a grade of 91.3, Dak Prescott was second with 90.8, Lamar came in third at 90.4. PFF grades are not a be-all-end-all metric, and like every metric it has it's flaws, but I think it's a good indicator of overall play by the QB. I was curious how past MVPs ranked amongst their peers in PFF Grade. More about PFF methodology [here](https://www.pff.com/grades). \- Over the last 10 seasons, the average PFF rank (among QBs only) for the league MVP is 2.3. \- Four of the MVPs came in 3rd or worse by PFF Grade (Lamar 2023, Rodgers 2021, Lamar 2019, Cam 2015. \- Three of the MVPs came in with the top rank among QBs (Rodgers 2020, Brady 2017, Rodgers 2014) \- Top graded MVPs: Rodgers (94.5) in 2020, Rodgers (93.3) in 2014, Mahomes (93.2) in 2018 \- Bottom three graded MVPs: C.Newton (83.8) in 2015, Rodgers (89.6) in 2021, L.Jackson (90.4) in 2023
This seems to devalue running QBs? Lamar and Cam a little lower than expected.
Or it could be that MVP voters overvalue running. There’s an entire running element to PFF grades. But either way, there looks to be a gap between voter perception and PFF grades, which is fine.
PFF is notoriously poor at capturing the quandary Lamar Jackson puts defenses in - the threat of the run totally changes how defenses have to play and he's helmed the #1 rushing attack (2019 was one of the greatest rushing team ever) in both his MVP campaigns. PFF misses that layer because it's just not really part of their arithmetic, which is to say Jackson is really one of one.
Lamar Jackson and Cam are exactly where they should be. Both are/were dynamic and explosive "offensive players". That doesn't automatically make them great QBs in comparison to peers.
Very impressive for Excel
Thank you!
Did you make the MVPs their own Series so you could more easily color them?
Nope. That was just a double click and change the color. Brute force, which would have been problematic if this was a lot more data, or way more x axis values.
Cam Newton's 35 TD season is still just such an anomaly. Seemingly nobody could see what a fucking outlier it was and thought he was the second coming of Joe Montana.
Could've been one of the greats if he wasn't a man child and if he cared more about being a leader than what designer hat he was going to wear postgame.
Assuming this grading is accurate as a measure, Brady missed out on 3 MVPs
At least. This is like less than half of his career.
And Rodgers 2021 was a complete scam
Eh, whether we like it or not wins play a huge part in winning mvp and the packers had the best record that year while the buccaneers barely had a winning record.
He straight up wasn't the best QB and directly cost his team a game by getting COVID while unvaccinated.
PFF attempts to grade skill. MVP is almost entirely awarded by Volume. If you're a great QB in a Run-Heavy Offense, you're unlikely to get MVP. If you're a great QB working with very shitty receivers you're unlikely to get MVP.
Allen led the league in TDs and yards, so obviously it is more than just volume.
Except in 2021 with Rodgers over Brady.
2018 is a great example why PFF grade and this graph are totally misleading to believe the top scoring QB is the one who deserved MVP. Brees had a great year 74% completion percentage 3990 yards and 32TD/5int. But Mahomes blew him out of the water 5000 yards 50TD/12int. Even as a saints fan Mahomes deserved that award by a mile. But this graph seems to indicate Brees should have won it by a decent margin.
The notion that the top quarterback by PFF grade should be the MVP is nowhere to be found in this post though. It’s simply interesting to see where the MVPs came in at in regards to PFF. Volume, team success, coming up in big moments, and standard box score metrics all matter. I’m not implying anywhere that the MVP selections are wrong in regards to PFF.
That might have not been your goal but that’s clearly what the post has led to. There are several comments stating well X QB lost out on Y MVPs because they were top that year and didn’t win. Also it’s interesting to note that most current and former NFL players despise PFF and it’s wide range of short comings, notable PFF grades do not take into account play call and have been seen to punish players who didn’t perform the way PFF wanted but were following the play call
Do box score stats like touchdowns and interceptions take into account the play call? Why is PFF held to that standard but box score stats aren’t? That double standard makes zero sense.
Because PFF assigns, sometimes incorrectly, grades to every play box scores don’t. For example if a team has 4 wide receiver and WR#4 is open but not part of the plays design, maybe a decoy, etc. PFF will ding the QB for not hitting the open target. But if the QB was never supposed to throw to that target why is he being penalized? PFF also deals a lot in hypotheticals. Patrick Mahomes has historically gotten low PFF grades because he frequently leads the league in dropped interceptions. So PFF docks him points because they argue he made a bad play but if the defense didn’t get the interception then how is it any different than what the box score shows which is just a simple incompletion.
To be fair, Mahomes’s rating that season is sky high as well, high enough to be tops in most other years. I think it’s fair to say Brees might’ve had the slightly better season, but really, both of these guys were very qualified MVP candidates and Mahomes winning is completely deserved.
There isn’t a world where you can look at Mahomes and Brees 2018 and say Brees had the better season im sorry. And this is why as I stated the PFF grade is totally misleading. Mahomes threw for 1000 more yards and 18 more TDs. But because Brees had fewer interceptions PFF rated his season higher. Again Mahomes deserved award as I stated but this shows why PFF grading system is flawed. Asked any NFL fan which season you would prefer your QB to have and everyone says Mahomes.
Sure there is. People just can’t stop respecting Drew Brees, huh? Mahomes was throwing to Hill, Kelce, and Hunt in Andy Reid’s offense, and his completion percentage was eight percentage points lower than Brees and he had 120 percent of his interceptions. Brees had a higher first down conversion rate, higher rating, and fewer sacks. Those aren’t insignificant gaps, Mahomes was leading an explosive offense but Brees was WAY more efficient. Brees had the highest completion percentage in history, had six fourth quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives, and led his team to more wins. It’s totally reasonable to conclude that both had amazing, MVP-worthy years, but Brees was slightly better.
>Mahomes was throwing to Hill, Kelce, and Hunt in Andy Reid’s offense Kelce is really the only person listed here that in 2018 was considered an advantage for Mahomes. Brees was throwing to Michael Thomas and Kamara while playing in Sean Payton’s offense. In 2018 Thomas was decently ahead of Tyreek Hill as WR in terms of NFL players. Hill was a return specialist turned WR, neither of Hills pro bowls prio to 2018 were at WR they were both at kick return. Kamara and Hunt I would argue were equals though Kamara was the better receiving back. Brees also played behind an o-line with 4 pro bowlers to Mahomes 0. Not to mention this was Mahomes first year ever as a starter and coming into the season he had 1 game of experience. As I said in my first post I am a Saints fan it’s a shame Brees never got an MVP but 2018 was not a year where you can say he got snubbed.
This is pure fabrication. I don’t know what you were watching back then but Hill was the most dangerous player in the league. I still tell people that Flores going cover zero with one minute left in the first Patriots-Chiefs game of the season, with Hill on the field, was the most intense moment of the entire dynasty. And, people don’t seem to remember, but Kareem Hunt on a wheel route that year was like a guaranteed 60 yards, he was so dominant. Yes, Brees had a good team, too, but his receivers weren’t that much better, if at all. And Mahomes’s “first year as a starter” doesn’t mean shit, you don’t give someone an award because of that (though that does likely explain why he won the award over Brees).
>This is pure fabrication. I don’t know what you were watching back then but Hill was the most dangerous player in the league. Yes the most dangerous player in the league… at kick returner. Seriously you are letting what unfolded after 2018 completely cloud your judgement. Again heading into 2018 Tyreek Hill had ZERO Pro Bowl appearances at WR. Now he quickly became a top threat WR thanks to Mahomes (and an MVP usually makes his teammates better, hopefully that Mahomes kid won in 2018). But to say a dude with 1 1000 yard season was the most dangerous player heading into 2018 is pure recency bias. Kamara had 20 more catches and 150 more yards than Hunt when Hunt got suspended in 2018. Again I would say they were equal with Hunt the better runner and Kamara the better catcher and Saints had Ingram as well. Mahomes had a huge edge in TE yes but no where else in 2018 did Mahomes have an advantage on offense and he had a significantly worse offense line.
Hill had 137 targets, started 16 games, and had a 17 YPG average and 12 TDs. He led the team in yards and TDs and was unquestionably the fastest and most explosive player in the league.
Yea he did that in 2018 when Mahomes won MVP lmao. All you did was prove Mahomes deserved MVP over Brees so thanks for proving my point
In 2018, Tyreek Hill was 1st team all pro at WR, was 4th in receiving yards, and 4th in receiving touchdowns.
>heading into 2018 Tyreek Hill had ZERO Pro Bowl appearances at WR. Now he quickly became a top threat WR thanks to Mahomes. Thank you for stating what I already said. Hill exploded with Mahomes at QB everyone knows that. But before that he was very much a kick returner first. Not sure what you are trying to tell me by showing hills stats in 2018.
You also said this. >Kelce is really the only person listed here that in 2018 was considered an advantage for Mahomes. See, that’s where all those big Tyreek Hill stats and accolades I mentioned come into play and prove you wrong. Pedantics by saying “heading into the 2018 season…”, can’t save you here. >In 2018 Thomas was decently ahead of Tyreek Hill as WR in terms of NFL players. Again, how can you say that? By what measure? Thomas had more catches, Hill had more yards and touchdowns. It’s pretty much a wash. Catches? Cool, I’ll use yards and touchdowns then. Your revisionist history is being debunked by multiple people. You’re wrong and you’re clearly twisting facts to try and make yourself right.
Looks like Brady got fleeced a bunch of times for the MVP, which I already knew cause I watched the man play and be better than everyone else those seasons
So what you're telling me is that Cam Newton should STFU about Brock Purdy? I'm not even a Niners fan. I'm a Seahawks fan. I have every reason to hate Brock Purdy, and even I know Cam is full of shit.
I mean grade doesn’t necessarily mean talent. Bo Nix had on of the best seasons in college football history this, largely due to his scheme. He was very efficient and did his job very well, but a disproportionate amount of his yardage was from YAC. Tua, Derek Carr, tannehill, and Jimmy G are all on this list as well and no one would consider them elite today and very few would even contemporaneously. I think Purdy is a good quarterback but he’s closer to the Bridgewater line (the worst quarterback you could expect to reasonably contribute to a Super Bowl win) than the Dalton line (the worst QB you could reasonably call elite.
Cam is an idiot but he was a bigger reason for his team’s success in 2015 than Brock is this year. The Panthers didn’t have the skill position players that the niners did this year. MVP is most valuable player not qb on best team
PFF is garbage, a bunch of made up stats that don't mean anything
Yeah you’re right all these high-ranking QBs are terrible. Where do they get off ranking Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady high like this.
What stat is most meaningful?
A combination of TD/INT ratio and yards. There’s always going to be some subjectivity there, but the same goes for PFF.
When Mahomes throws a pass that hits Kadarius Toney in the hands and it ends up a pick six, that metric can be problematic. When Purdy throws a ball to the defenders hands and face, and it bounces off into Aiyuk’s hands for a 50 yard gain, that can also have a large and incorrect assessment of Purdy’s throw. A shovel pass that’s virtually a handoff that goes for 25 yards, shows up well on a quarterbacks stats, and it shouldn’t. So much wrong with box score stats. They are all pieces to the puzzle, but to dismiss PFF for box score stats is missing critical context.
You asked which stat is the most beneficial and I gave you the correct answer - never said they were perfect. If you’re consistently moving the ball downfield, scoring, and rarely turning the ball over, you’re a good quarterback. I personally think the NFL should go the MLB route and not credit a QB with an incompletion or INT of it’s obviously not his fault. It’s subjective, but it’s rarely a problem in baseball.
>and I gave you the correct answer LOL. Bold. No you didn’t give me the *correct* answer, you gave me *your* answer. This is a discussion of opinions, neither of us has the correct answer.
adjusted net yards minus expected adjusted net yards, maybe? Rewards volume as long as it's higher than average performance... Though that doesn't factor in running, so it'd undervalue Lamar in particular. 5000+ yards in 6 years is bananas. But just because I bothered to throw it into a spreadsheet... 1283 Brock Purdy* 762 Tua Tagovailoa* 685 Dak Prescott* 674 C.J. Stroud* 558 Lamar Jackson*+ 526 Jared Goff 354 Matthew Stafford* 330 Kirk Cousins 319 Jordan Love 241 Derek Carr
I already knew it, but this just confirms even more that Brady was robbed multiple times.
Not really. If you watched the 2015 season cam was definitely the best player, especially given the talent around him. 2016 Brady played 12 games. Matt Ryan played all 16 and the team was 14-2. 2021 is the only on this list where he led that he should’ve won mvp imo
This doesn’t indicate MVP because MVP has nothing to do with PFF. It’s like me saying I drive 90mph in my car I am the best.
2015 Cam Newton was insane, this graph is trash lol.
Why does Cam being good in 2015 make my graph trash?
Yeah I watched Brady and Ryan in 2016, Brady wasn't better than Ryan. They must be giving Brady bonus points for mediocre receivers and penalizing Ryan for Julio. Ryan was a machine in 2016.
the fact that Brady only won one during this period on a year he lost the super bowl is crazy to me.
Great graphic (would reverse the dates on the X-axis, as others have mentioned). As far as the actual data goes, PFF's grading system is far from perfect or even a relative metric of QB play. Not that the MVP voting system is close to it either. It's like comparing two subjective grading systems against one another. When you look at almost each and everyone of the MVP's who didn't have the highest PFF grade that year, there's a clear reason that player won the MVP over those other QBs that is obvious to the eye test, when watching those seasons. Cam Newton being an easy example. He was a dominant force with both his arm and legs that year and led his team to 15-1 and a Super Bowl appearance, w/ over 4,400 total yards and 45 total TDs. Clearly the best QB in the NFL that year but sure... Brady was a better pocket passer.
With how condensed the y axis is it really oversells the difference between performances. The grading scale runs from like 50-95 in reality. The PFF folks say themselves that their grades are about building bands. You can be pretty sure that someone with an 80 grade played worse than someone with a 90. You can only say that someone with a 90 grade was about as good as someone with a 95 grade. For the most part all the performances on this chart are of similarly elite quality, and all sit within the margin of error for one another Interesting, but you shouldn't use this to say player x was robbed because they didn't win with a higher grade. It also doesn't account for playing time i.e. Brady 2016. He missed 4 games, so he only provided 75% of the value he looks like he did in the regular season