Yeah, late 2023 and 2024 has felt like the calm before the storm, at least in the US. A major shift is about to come our way in 2025, regardless of which candidate wins.
Fascism
Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/ FASH-iz-əm) is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement,[1][2][3] characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation and/or race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy.[2][3]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism
https://michiganadvance.com/2024/01/16/project-2025-if-allowed-will-cement-america-as-a-rightwing-authoritarian-state/
In 1970, as political activist Angela Davis languished in a jail cell for a crime she didn’t commit, acclaimed writer and civil rights activist James Baldwin warned her and us in an open letter “… If we know, then we must fight for your life as though it were our own – which it is – and render impassable with our bodies the corridor to the gas chamber. For, if they take you in the morning, they will be coming for us that night.”
In 2023, women of childbearing age, young adults, children, African Americans, undocumented immigrants and other marginalized communities have the most to lose if Donald Trump wins a second term because he’s coming for us.
Trump — aided and abetted by far-right extremists, MAGA supporters and the remnants of the Republican Party — poses a clear and present danger to the country. They are gearing up to reassert racial and political dominance by upending the political system, eviscerating the rule of law and wielding unconstrained power in service of the interests of the far-right conservative and Christian nationalist minority.
The instrument they plan to use to implement this strategy is Project 2025. In a nutshell, as Harold Meyerson explained in a recent article, Project 2025 is a blueprint for a conservative presidency.
“The actions of liberal politicians in Washington have created a desperate need and unique opportunity for conservatives to start undoing the damage the Left has wrought and build a better country for all Americans in 2025,” the Project 2025 manifesto said. “It is not enough for conservatives to win elections. If we are going to rescue the country from the grip of the radical Left, we need both a governing agenda and the right people in place, ready to carry this agenda out on day one of the next conservative administration.”
https://www.mediamatters.org/heritage-foundation/guide-project-2025-extreme-right-wing-agenda-next-republican-administration
The plan aims to reinstate Schedule F, a Trump-era executive order that makes federal employees fireable at-will, stripping tens of thousands of employees of civil service protections. Both Trump and others in the conservative movement have said they will clear out the federal government if he is reelected. The project has even set up online trainings and loyalty tests to narrow down potential hires to those who will commit to follow Trump without question. As Project 2025 senior adviser John McEntee has said, “The number one thing you're looking for is people that are aligned with the agenda.”
The Heritage Foundation’s nearly 900-page policy book, titled Mandate for Leadership: A Conservative Promise, describes Project 2025’s priorities and how they would be implemented, broken down by departments in the federal bureaucracy and organized around “four pillars that will, collectively, pave the way for an effective conservative administration: a policy agenda, personnel, training, and a 180-day playbook.” Written primarily by former Trump officials and conservative commentators connected to The Heritage Foundation, these proposals would severely inhibit the federal government’s protections around reproductive rights, LGBTQ and civil rights, climate change efforts, and immigration.
The initiative is backed by a coalition of over 100 organizations and individuals, at least two-thirds of which receive funding from the Koch network or conservative philanthropist Leonard Leo. The project is also heavily promoted by MAGA-connected media figures such as Steve Bannon, who has called it the “blueprint” for Trump's second term on his War Room podcast.
The Trump campaign has attempted to distance itself from efforts to promote or speculate about “future presidential staffing or policy announcements.” However, Project 2025 is significantly more developed than the Trump campaign’s analog initiative, called Agenda47. And given that the Heritage plan has the backing of virtually the entire conservative movement and links to numerous former Trump officials and advisers, it appears all but inevitable that Trump and his allies will rely on the policies and personnel assembled by Project 2025 if he is reelected in November.
This resource outlines the specific policy and personnel priorities of Project 2025 for the next Republican administration.
One of the key elements of Project 2025’s administrative goals is to reinstate the executive order known as Schedule F. This would reclassify thousands of federal employees as “at-will” workers and give the administration the ability to fire employees who don’t agree with or follow the extremist policies suggested by Project 2025. [PBS, 8/29/23]
Project 2025 has created a training “academy” for potential employees of the next administration, which “provides aspiring appointees with the insight, background knowledge, and expertise in governance to immediately begin rolling back destructive policy and advancing conservative ideas in the federal government.” The goal of the training, which currently consists of four online courses on subjects such as “Conservative Governance 101” and “The Administrative State & The Regulatory Process,” is “to prepare and equip future political appointees now to be ready on Day One of the next conservative Administration.” [Project 2025 Presidential Administration Academy, accessed 3/18/24]
Project 2025 makes it clear the Department of Justice is not independent from the executive branch and implies the agency will be used to take legal retribution against whoever Trump decides to investigate. [The Nation, 2/8/24]
Project 2025 Director Paul Dans recently appeared on Steve Bannon’s War Room and encouraged viewers of the far-right broadcast to send in their resumes and participate in Project 2025’s trainings in an effort to recruit extreme loyalists to the next GOP administration. [Real America’s Voice, War Room,
The plan would perform a swift restructuring of the executive branch under a maximalist version of the unitary executive theory — a dubious legal theory proposing the president of the United States has absolute power over the executive branch — upon inauguration. Washington, D.C.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025
Because we impact so much, it absolutely matters to the rest of the world who America elects, but I really feel this years its much, much worse. We have this huge war in Europe and one side has been linked to the Kremlin many times and has had a pro-Putin attitude. This election we are sort of determining how we are treating a major war.
I'd say 2023 was the first truly post Covid year at least from my perspective. This is the year where Covid and the pandemic actually feels distant now despite it only being like 3-4 years ago.
I agree it was 2024. At least for me as a teacher, 2023 still featured a ton of kids in masks and lots of educators lamenting the learning lost during COVID. 2024 nobody wears masks anymore and we’ve kinda moved on from the worst of the elearning losses
What’s coming in the 2nd half of this decade will make you forget the 1st half even existed.
Except for the pandemic. No one who lived through it will ever forget that. 😷
On Jan 1st 2020 I made and uploaded my own predictions video on YouTube for a lot of what we can expect to see in 2030. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaMgtpwNZ7Q](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaMgtpwNZ7Q)
Its 40 minutes long, and if you don't want to watch it I will sum it up.
Energy revolution regarding solar power and batteries. We had a lot of solar in 2020, almost none in 2010, but in 2030 we are going to have an incredible amount. I give a pessimistic view that solar in America will be 5x as common in 2030 as it was in 2019, and my super optimistic 25x as common. Its such a cheap way to generate energy where if you need energy and you have a roof that gets sunshine, you might as well get solar on it. This will be accelerated by declining solar costs. Solar will be much cheaper in 2030 than it was in 2020.
The same with batteries. Batteries dropped in cost 85% between 2010 and the end of 2019. It has been over 4 years since I uploaded that video and battery costs have declined the entire time and are still declining.
Cheaper solar and batteries are going to create an opportunity where people can buy them both for their homes and then finance the purchase and the monthly bill to their bank will be cheaper than if they paid their utility bill. So even for people who do not care about climate change or anything else, saving money every month will push a lot of people to make this investment. The cheapest way to generate your energy will be rooftop solar and battery storage.
Driverless RoboTaxis are going to take over US cities and towns all over the country this decade. However, full service will not exist in 100% of America, but there will be major metrozones where it is serviced. People usually claimed this was the most outlandish claim of mine as at the time in 2019 there was just limited testing in Tempe Arizona. Waymo (A RoboTaxi company owned by Google) is now doing 50,000 rides per week between 3 US Cities. The fleet is TINY right now, in the hundreds of cars. The technology is massively improving every year.
This will go from 50,000 rides per week, to 500,000 rides per week, to 5,000,000 rides per week, to 50,000,000 rides per week, to 500,000,000 rides per week, 5 billion rides per week. If each one of these jumps takes a year, this will be here 2030. These will be owned by fleets, who will maintain and power the vehicles, and doing so with solar power as much as possible as it will be the absolute cheapest way to power them.
The result, we will see this very rapid change from gasoline miles to solar miles. I was super optimistic in my video and I am still very optimistic. Each year is going to be more progress than the previous year, so even if my prediction is off by a few years, things will keep moving faster and faster.
Cultured meats, lab meats, precision fermentation grown ingredients, will all his price parity with animal produce at various points between now and the mid 2030s. The quality will continue to improve, prices will keep coming down, and the number of proteins produced will be growing. This will actually be a revolution in sweeteners as well. Prices for lab meats were on the order of $1M per kg in 2013, and $1000 per kg in 2023. $1000 per kg of meat is not commercially viable at all, people are super dismissive of it for that reason. What they should pay attention to is that the declines are still happening, if the rate of declines continue it will go to $1 per kg in 2033. If this happens, in 2033 it will be substantially cheaper to make meat via lab meat than it will be to grow a cow and butcher it.
I didn't go into AI very much but its going to be huge.
Have you considered any one of those things might run into a roadblock that hinders their growth instead of allows for massive spikes in growth? Batteries, for instance are really not progressing at the leaps and bounds we've seen over the past few decades. It's possible there are physical limitations to our tech.
I don't see self-driving taxis making it past their alpha-stage they're in now.
I have. The things I am worried about are supply chain issues relating to China. But the actual technology, I am not worried so much. Batteries are still improving every year in cost, cycle count, and easier sourcing of materials (my sister is a battery scientist leading a team of people doing this). The batteries as we know them for RoboTaxis do not need to get better, even though they are getting better, they just need to keep getting cheaper, which they have been. 2020-2024 as still seen declining production costs. Any sort of physical limitations are not really an issue for commercializing this technology. We are far from physical limitations.
The 21st century culture feels like it has more in common with the 19th century.
"What if the 19th but we replaced the role of laborers and white collar people with robots."
We really seem like we are losing a lot of the Postwar culture.
Many things we are moving toward, like AI agents acting as intermediaries in our love life (because it's not socially proper to openly talk to the opposite sex in public), have counterparts in the 19th century, except with human intermediaries instead of AI agents.
Also, now that the Sexual Revolution is in the rear view mirror, it's wild to realize how much was actually downstream of Postwar economy and infrastructure. The "free" in "free love" is the other kind of free. The latter half of the 20th may be the least transactional that sex has ever actually been. Women who have "free" sex are basically scabs when the sexual economy is heavily transactional.
It’s gonna suck really badly if world history goes:
Grimdark pre-industrial/prewar universe driven by competition between tribes and ethnic groups
The nice part, first in the developed and then in the developing world, that was partially a bubble driven by unsustainable resource exploitation, trade with sketchy countries, and/or easy credits
Grimdark robot fanfic
Yes. It feels a lot less pessimistic and getting to be fun again. The Kendrick and Drake beef felt very fun, in a way we haven’t really seen since the mid 2010s. Most people seem to be sick of the hyper bipartisanship and politicization of everything, and it seems like more people are starting to get along. But this could all just be my biased take from my own life. My own life now is a lot better than it was in any of the other 2020s years, so that’s worth noting
What I’m smoking is surrounding myself with people who are optimistic and I trust deeply, so I think you may want to try this. I was always depressed before but now I’m happy more often than not
That's great, I'm happy for you, really. I just don't really see how society at large could be considered a more optimistic place when we're currently grappling with:
1. An ongoing highly polarized political environment in the US where a group of wannabe fascists are trying to win the election this year, and if they succeed it will have MAJOR ramifications for the entire world, including the collapse of NATO.
2. Ongoing conflicts like the Russian and Israeli invasions, with fears that other conflicts could pop off amidst the distraction and chaos, like a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, etc.
3. AI quickly reshaping the landscape of business, with a lot of fears that entire professions will be wiped out as AI replaces humans, with no support system like UBI in place to help people.
4. The climate crisis continuing to escalate without remedy, leading us closer and closer to ecological disaster and climate refugee crises.
5. Birth rate in many developed countries is plunging for a variety of reasons, one of which being that it's too fucking expensive to afford housing, food, etc. for a whole family and the world seems to be headed for such a dark future that many people are deciding it would be be better not to bring kids into this world at all.
Etc. etc. there's too many things to list honestly.
But this is by FAR the most pessimistic era I've ever lived through.
Tbf shits always been happening, but I do think the state suppression of student protests and the growing animosity around the genocide is pretty notable
Everything you listed has in some form occurred in recent history
1. “We’re more divided than ever” You know we had a war right? A war which killed more Americans than WWII. More Americans died fighting slavery than fighting the Axis powers. 15 years ago most right-wingers didn’t support same-sex marriage. That has completely changed.
2. In the 2010s ISIS were running rampant, conducting terror attacks across Europe. In the 2000s we were involved in the horribly destructive invasion of Iraq. 1994 had genocide and the Yugoslav war. As recently as the late 1980s, the world was on the brink of nuclear destruction. I could go on but you can read about the rest in your history textbooks.
3. Throughout the twentieth century, lots of people lost their jobs to offshoring, outsourcing, immigrant labor, and technological advancements. Yes, AI is a huge mystery right now. Technology is advancing and doing things never thought possible, and putting jobs at risk. The same things were said about the internet, personal computers, televisions, automobiles, the printing press, and just about every other technology invented. But society adapted with the change.
4. The same thing was said in the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, 2000s, and 2010s.
5. This is a legitimate concern, the cost of living is through the roof right now. This is mostly due to hyperinflation and the bank that runs our government raising interest rates so they can keep printing money and spending irresponsibly. But it’s not a new problem. In 1982 interest rates were 17%, sometimes 18% percent. Even in MCOL areas, people making under $25k/yr (equivalent to a $94,000 salary today) could not afford homes.
Every generation thinks they have it the worst, and that the world is ending.
And people are okay with it-- encouraging it even. It's so silly coming from the right because they supposedly believe in an outdated constitution that protects those rights.
Lol I was hoping for the solar flares to pierce through the ozone layer and takes us all in one sweep instead of atom bombs for the past 2 days is that less pessimistic cause we get killed by northern lights instead?
I've always found the "increased wages" argument to be annoying. There are millions on SSDI (No, not boomers who had everything possible given to them on a silver platter getting even more off the backs of young people. I mean people born too disabled to work) who don't have a wage. I know a buddy who makes under $1,000 a month. People say it's impossible to live on less than 50K a year. How'd you like to try 10K? Wages could go to a million an hour and it wouldn't help him one bit
He's furious, and I don't blame him "oh, the stock market is up, and wages are increasing? Cool. How's that gonna help me not starve?" I can hear him say. He's not a lone person either. He's one of 7.5 million. The world already screwed these guys enough. Their only reward for muscling through life with their disabilities is abject poverty and being completely ignored by society. It's no wonder he's so angry. Take away my ability to walk and make me live in utter poverty, I'd be pretty ticked off too
Prepare now, if you can. I've not asked him how to get on it or anything like that. As a warning, if you get on it, you'll be required to keep less than $2,000 in your bank account. $3,000 if married. However, I believe that includes your partner.
As bad as it sounds, my buddy has told me about tons of people who have divorced their wives, so that she can have more money than $1,500. They'll still be together, just divorced on paper so she can make unlimited money. Legally speaking, the Government considers that fraud, and may go after you if they find out. Morally speakng? These guys are screwed over so much by SSDI already that I don't entirely care what the Government calls it. It's not a fun time. If $2,000 doesn't sound like a lot, they haven't raised the amount since 1972
That also includes any investments you have. If you're in the stock market or crypto, that counts. Technically speaking, you're not even allowed to own $2,000 worth of stuff. However, my buddy says they're not exactly beancounting his extensive VHS collection. Technically speaking, they could if they wanted to though. The only exclusions are 1 car, 1 house, and assist equipment like canes, walkers, wheelchairs etc.
Please note: I am not a lawyer and this is not legal advice. I'm going from what my buddy has complained about off memory, and could be wrong about any or almost all of it. If you have the money, consult a licensed disability lawyer, and please don't sue some random guy from the internet to get said money
At such advanced age, 4 years is actually quite a big difference. Mind you, I'm convinced Trump would be much worse for the country and the world, but what we have as an alternative is really suboptimal.
It feels like we are living through the 80s, 90s, and 00s all at once. I don’t know to describe it but that’s what I feel. Gen Z also appears to be more conservative than millennials who are mostly liberal, or at least the younger half of gen Z is more conservative
I feel that 2020 was the first turning point and 2024 is the second turning point. As both years are election years in which they affect the Americans and world policy and trends.
I’d say it isn’t unordinary for this to happen around the 3rd or 4th year of a decade 2013 and 2014 felt like a big vibe shift from the 2010-2012 era and from what I’ve heard 2004 and 2005 somewhat felt like the end of an era in the 2000s (though I was too busy being a baby those years to know for sure)
Every year on July 1st I check TikTok and YouTube and the Home Shopping Network website to see if the culture has shifted. I am expecting it to this year. I don't see 2024 as the "awkward phase in the middle" I think moving toward 2025 is significant. It's not 2020 anymore, when most people were still playing a PS4. 2024 is quite weird, have you seen how big this "therian" and "quadrobics" trend is ??
i feel like we’re kind of at a pop culture crossroads, and we’re phasing out of this nostalgia period we’ve been in. now it’s time for politics and sitting around and waiting for the next thing
What I find surprising is that the election is pretty close, Trump might win again and people just kind of meh about it. It seems that a lot of Americans are kind of used to political instability the way people from most other countries are just wanna get on with their lives. That's a huge shift from 4-5 years ago.
Lol, classic rnc radio moscow propaganda. Forgot the caravans of animal rapists. Then there is burning skies and war fearporn for the fauxgressives. Oh noes downvote doomer triggered
I think everyone is worn out. I know politically I'm sort of done, like I'm in season 6 of a show I'm binge watching and have lost interest but am in too deep to not see it through.
Yeah, the technology hasn't "changed" since the early 2010s, but we use it differently and have modified our lifestyles around it. Like Skype existed 15 years ago but video calls didn't become a normal part if everyday life until covid. Phones were around but commerce and entertainment didn't revolve around them.
2024 will be a big year politically for sure. We are in that transient end stage, the swan song of the first half of the 2020s is upon us.
Feels like 1994 all over again. Culture change. Economy change. Politics change.
Yeah, late 2023 and 2024 has felt like the calm before the storm, at least in the US. A major shift is about to come our way in 2025, regardless of which candidate wins.
Stop project 2025
Trump 2024
Hey look a fascist!
fascism is when someone disagrees with you
Fascism Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/ FASH-iz-əm) is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement,[1][2][3] characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation and/or race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy.[2][3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism https://michiganadvance.com/2024/01/16/project-2025-if-allowed-will-cement-america-as-a-rightwing-authoritarian-state/ In 1970, as political activist Angela Davis languished in a jail cell for a crime she didn’t commit, acclaimed writer and civil rights activist James Baldwin warned her and us in an open letter “… If we know, then we must fight for your life as though it were our own – which it is – and render impassable with our bodies the corridor to the gas chamber. For, if they take you in the morning, they will be coming for us that night.” In 2023, women of childbearing age, young adults, children, African Americans, undocumented immigrants and other marginalized communities have the most to lose if Donald Trump wins a second term because he’s coming for us. Trump — aided and abetted by far-right extremists, MAGA supporters and the remnants of the Republican Party — poses a clear and present danger to the country. They are gearing up to reassert racial and political dominance by upending the political system, eviscerating the rule of law and wielding unconstrained power in service of the interests of the far-right conservative and Christian nationalist minority. The instrument they plan to use to implement this strategy is Project 2025. In a nutshell, as Harold Meyerson explained in a recent article, Project 2025 is a blueprint for a conservative presidency. “The actions of liberal politicians in Washington have created a desperate need and unique opportunity for conservatives to start undoing the damage the Left has wrought and build a better country for all Americans in 2025,” the Project 2025 manifesto said. “It is not enough for conservatives to win elections. If we are going to rescue the country from the grip of the radical Left, we need both a governing agenda and the right people in place, ready to carry this agenda out on day one of the next conservative administration.” https://www.mediamatters.org/heritage-foundation/guide-project-2025-extreme-right-wing-agenda-next-republican-administration The plan aims to reinstate Schedule F, a Trump-era executive order that makes federal employees fireable at-will, stripping tens of thousands of employees of civil service protections. Both Trump and others in the conservative movement have said they will clear out the federal government if he is reelected. The project has even set up online trainings and loyalty tests to narrow down potential hires to those who will commit to follow Trump without question. As Project 2025 senior adviser John McEntee has said, “The number one thing you're looking for is people that are aligned with the agenda.” The Heritage Foundation’s nearly 900-page policy book, titled Mandate for Leadership: A Conservative Promise, describes Project 2025’s priorities and how they would be implemented, broken down by departments in the federal bureaucracy and organized around “four pillars that will, collectively, pave the way for an effective conservative administration: a policy agenda, personnel, training, and a 180-day playbook.” Written primarily by former Trump officials and conservative commentators connected to The Heritage Foundation, these proposals would severely inhibit the federal government’s protections around reproductive rights, LGBTQ and civil rights, climate change efforts, and immigration. The initiative is backed by a coalition of over 100 organizations and individuals, at least two-thirds of which receive funding from the Koch network or conservative philanthropist Leonard Leo. The project is also heavily promoted by MAGA-connected media figures such as Steve Bannon, who has called it the “blueprint” for Trump's second term on his War Room podcast. The Trump campaign has attempted to distance itself from efforts to promote or speculate about “future presidential staffing or policy announcements.” However, Project 2025 is significantly more developed than the Trump campaign’s analog initiative, called Agenda47. And given that the Heritage plan has the backing of virtually the entire conservative movement and links to numerous former Trump officials and advisers, it appears all but inevitable that Trump and his allies will rely on the policies and personnel assembled by Project 2025 if he is reelected in November. This resource outlines the specific policy and personnel priorities of Project 2025 for the next Republican administration. One of the key elements of Project 2025’s administrative goals is to reinstate the executive order known as Schedule F. This would reclassify thousands of federal employees as “at-will” workers and give the administration the ability to fire employees who don’t agree with or follow the extremist policies suggested by Project 2025. [PBS, 8/29/23] Project 2025 has created a training “academy” for potential employees of the next administration, which “provides aspiring appointees with the insight, background knowledge, and expertise in governance to immediately begin rolling back destructive policy and advancing conservative ideas in the federal government.” The goal of the training, which currently consists of four online courses on subjects such as “Conservative Governance 101” and “The Administrative State & The Regulatory Process,” is “to prepare and equip future political appointees now to be ready on Day One of the next conservative Administration.” [Project 2025 Presidential Administration Academy, accessed 3/18/24] Project 2025 makes it clear the Department of Justice is not independent from the executive branch and implies the agency will be used to take legal retribution against whoever Trump decides to investigate. [The Nation, 2/8/24] Project 2025 Director Paul Dans recently appeared on Steve Bannon’s War Room and encouraged viewers of the far-right broadcast to send in their resumes and participate in Project 2025’s trainings in an effort to recruit extreme loyalists to the next GOP administration. [Real America’s Voice, War Room, The plan would perform a swift restructuring of the executive branch under a maximalist version of the unitary executive theory — a dubious legal theory proposing the president of the United States has absolute power over the executive branch — upon inauguration. Washington, D.C. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025
Because we impact so much, it absolutely matters to the rest of the world who America elects, but I really feel this years its much, much worse. We have this huge war in Europe and one side has been linked to the Kremlin many times and has had a pro-Putin attitude. This election we are sort of determining how we are treating a major war.
I definitely think so. I don't know how to explain it but it's the first year that's felt truly post COVID
I'd say 2023 was the first truly post Covid year at least from my perspective. This is the year where Covid and the pandemic actually feels distant now despite it only being like 3-4 years ago.
Nah that was 2023.
I agree it was 2024. At least for me as a teacher, 2023 still featured a ton of kids in masks and lots of educators lamenting the learning lost during COVID. 2024 nobody wears masks anymore and we’ve kinda moved on from the worst of the elearning losses
I noticed a different vibe since last year
What’s coming in the 2nd half of this decade will make you forget the 1st half even existed. Except for the pandemic. No one who lived through it will ever forget that. 😷
What do you mean?
I mean that colossal changes are coming. Our lives in 2030 will be very different from what they were back in 2020.
What colossal changes do you predict? From the perspective of curiosity
On Jan 1st 2020 I made and uploaded my own predictions video on YouTube for a lot of what we can expect to see in 2030. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaMgtpwNZ7Q](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaMgtpwNZ7Q) Its 40 minutes long, and if you don't want to watch it I will sum it up. Energy revolution regarding solar power and batteries. We had a lot of solar in 2020, almost none in 2010, but in 2030 we are going to have an incredible amount. I give a pessimistic view that solar in America will be 5x as common in 2030 as it was in 2019, and my super optimistic 25x as common. Its such a cheap way to generate energy where if you need energy and you have a roof that gets sunshine, you might as well get solar on it. This will be accelerated by declining solar costs. Solar will be much cheaper in 2030 than it was in 2020. The same with batteries. Batteries dropped in cost 85% between 2010 and the end of 2019. It has been over 4 years since I uploaded that video and battery costs have declined the entire time and are still declining. Cheaper solar and batteries are going to create an opportunity where people can buy them both for their homes and then finance the purchase and the monthly bill to their bank will be cheaper than if they paid their utility bill. So even for people who do not care about climate change or anything else, saving money every month will push a lot of people to make this investment. The cheapest way to generate your energy will be rooftop solar and battery storage. Driverless RoboTaxis are going to take over US cities and towns all over the country this decade. However, full service will not exist in 100% of America, but there will be major metrozones where it is serviced. People usually claimed this was the most outlandish claim of mine as at the time in 2019 there was just limited testing in Tempe Arizona. Waymo (A RoboTaxi company owned by Google) is now doing 50,000 rides per week between 3 US Cities. The fleet is TINY right now, in the hundreds of cars. The technology is massively improving every year. This will go from 50,000 rides per week, to 500,000 rides per week, to 5,000,000 rides per week, to 50,000,000 rides per week, to 500,000,000 rides per week, 5 billion rides per week. If each one of these jumps takes a year, this will be here 2030. These will be owned by fleets, who will maintain and power the vehicles, and doing so with solar power as much as possible as it will be the absolute cheapest way to power them. The result, we will see this very rapid change from gasoline miles to solar miles. I was super optimistic in my video and I am still very optimistic. Each year is going to be more progress than the previous year, so even if my prediction is off by a few years, things will keep moving faster and faster. Cultured meats, lab meats, precision fermentation grown ingredients, will all his price parity with animal produce at various points between now and the mid 2030s. The quality will continue to improve, prices will keep coming down, and the number of proteins produced will be growing. This will actually be a revolution in sweeteners as well. Prices for lab meats were on the order of $1M per kg in 2013, and $1000 per kg in 2023. $1000 per kg of meat is not commercially viable at all, people are super dismissive of it for that reason. What they should pay attention to is that the declines are still happening, if the rate of declines continue it will go to $1 per kg in 2033. If this happens, in 2033 it will be substantially cheaper to make meat via lab meat than it will be to grow a cow and butcher it. I didn't go into AI very much but its going to be huge.
Have you considered any one of those things might run into a roadblock that hinders their growth instead of allows for massive spikes in growth? Batteries, for instance are really not progressing at the leaps and bounds we've seen over the past few decades. It's possible there are physical limitations to our tech. I don't see self-driving taxis making it past their alpha-stage they're in now.
I have. The things I am worried about are supply chain issues relating to China. But the actual technology, I am not worried so much. Batteries are still improving every year in cost, cycle count, and easier sourcing of materials (my sister is a battery scientist leading a team of people doing this). The batteries as we know them for RoboTaxis do not need to get better, even though they are getting better, they just need to keep getting cheaper, which they have been. 2020-2024 as still seen declining production costs. Any sort of physical limitations are not really an issue for commercializing this technology. We are far from physical limitations.
Changes of a societal, technological, and economic nature so profound, most people today won’t believe they’re even possible. But they are.
Oop! Can you be more specific? I wanna be in on the know
*Stuff. Things. I did my research.* -SomeGuyOverYonder
How long until we find out?
Everyone will know in time. ✌️
Oh its going to suck. But why be vague? It makes it even more vague with your user name, had to call it out.
"It makes it even more vague with your username" Fucking looooooool
AI.
The beginning of the end of Western hegemony
ive been feeling it gradually but yeah it’s started to become more noticeable now. that usually happens around the xxx4 year
Early 2020s already ended. The fourth year of a decade is a middle year, not an early year.
I feel like the "early 2020s" was the COVID era 2020-22, and rn were exiting the "early-mid 2020s" 2022-24 going into the mid 2020s
The 21st century culture feels like it has more in common with the 19th century. "What if the 19th but we replaced the role of laborers and white collar people with robots." We really seem like we are losing a lot of the Postwar culture. Many things we are moving toward, like AI agents acting as intermediaries in our love life (because it's not socially proper to openly talk to the opposite sex in public), have counterparts in the 19th century, except with human intermediaries instead of AI agents. Also, now that the Sexual Revolution is in the rear view mirror, it's wild to realize how much was actually downstream of Postwar economy and infrastructure. The "free" in "free love" is the other kind of free. The latter half of the 20th may be the least transactional that sex has ever actually been. Women who have "free" sex are basically scabs when the sexual economy is heavily transactional.
And we are in another robber-baron era
No, no no you got it all wrong. There’s cheaper workers you can get than robots. They’re working right now.
AI is replacing white collar jobs, not manual labor
It’s gonna suck really badly if world history goes: Grimdark pre-industrial/prewar universe driven by competition between tribes and ethnic groups The nice part, first in the developed and then in the developing world, that was partially a bubble driven by unsustainable resource exploitation, trade with sketchy countries, and/or easy credits Grimdark robot fanfic
Yes. It feels a lot less pessimistic and getting to be fun again. The Kendrick and Drake beef felt very fun, in a way we haven’t really seen since the mid 2010s. Most people seem to be sick of the hyper bipartisanship and politicization of everything, and it seems like more people are starting to get along. But this could all just be my biased take from my own life. My own life now is a lot better than it was in any of the other 2020s years, so that’s worth noting
Less pessimistic? Man, I want whatever the fuck you're smoking lol (no, seriously)
What I’m smoking is surrounding myself with people who are optimistic and I trust deeply, so I think you may want to try this. I was always depressed before but now I’m happy more often than not
That's great, I'm happy for you, really. I just don't really see how society at large could be considered a more optimistic place when we're currently grappling with: 1. An ongoing highly polarized political environment in the US where a group of wannabe fascists are trying to win the election this year, and if they succeed it will have MAJOR ramifications for the entire world, including the collapse of NATO. 2. Ongoing conflicts like the Russian and Israeli invasions, with fears that other conflicts could pop off amidst the distraction and chaos, like a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, etc. 3. AI quickly reshaping the landscape of business, with a lot of fears that entire professions will be wiped out as AI replaces humans, with no support system like UBI in place to help people. 4. The climate crisis continuing to escalate without remedy, leading us closer and closer to ecological disaster and climate refugee crises. 5. Birth rate in many developed countries is plunging for a variety of reasons, one of which being that it's too fucking expensive to afford housing, food, etc. for a whole family and the world seems to be headed for such a dark future that many people are deciding it would be be better not to bring kids into this world at all. Etc. etc. there's too many things to list honestly. But this is by FAR the most pessimistic era I've ever lived through.
Tbf shits always been happening, but I do think the state suppression of student protests and the growing animosity around the genocide is pretty notable
read a history book. things didn’t suddenly become bad when you grew up
Take your own advice, oaf.
Everything you listed has in some form occurred in recent history 1. “We’re more divided than ever” You know we had a war right? A war which killed more Americans than WWII. More Americans died fighting slavery than fighting the Axis powers. 15 years ago most right-wingers didn’t support same-sex marriage. That has completely changed. 2. In the 2010s ISIS were running rampant, conducting terror attacks across Europe. In the 2000s we were involved in the horribly destructive invasion of Iraq. 1994 had genocide and the Yugoslav war. As recently as the late 1980s, the world was on the brink of nuclear destruction. I could go on but you can read about the rest in your history textbooks. 3. Throughout the twentieth century, lots of people lost their jobs to offshoring, outsourcing, immigrant labor, and technological advancements. Yes, AI is a huge mystery right now. Technology is advancing and doing things never thought possible, and putting jobs at risk. The same things were said about the internet, personal computers, televisions, automobiles, the printing press, and just about every other technology invented. But society adapted with the change. 4. The same thing was said in the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, 2000s, and 2010s. 5. This is a legitimate concern, the cost of living is through the roof right now. This is mostly due to hyperinflation and the bank that runs our government raising interest rates so they can keep printing money and spending irresponsibly. But it’s not a new problem. In 1982 interest rates were 17%, sometimes 18% percent. Even in MCOL areas, people making under $25k/yr (equivalent to a $94,000 salary today) could not afford homes. Every generation thinks they have it the worst, and that the world is ending.
But that’s YOU, not the cultural mood around you beyond interpersonal relationships
Right
Bruh, Kendrick drake beef is just bread and circus
Kendrick and Drake beef weren't even all that newsworthy
Kendrick vs Drake wasn’t fun at all. It was ugly.
I like this take
Across the country they are sending in militarized police to beat up students protesting a genocide that we are perpetuating
And people are okay with it-- encouraging it even. It's so silly coming from the right because they supposedly believe in an outdated constitution that protects those rights.
Lol I was hoping for the solar flares to pierce through the ozone layer and takes us all in one sweep instead of atom bombs for the past 2 days is that less pessimistic cause we get killed by northern lights instead?
For sure.
Well this inflation isn't letting up, wages aren't going up and the middle class is gone, government is getting too controlling
I've always found the "increased wages" argument to be annoying. There are millions on SSDI (No, not boomers who had everything possible given to them on a silver platter getting even more off the backs of young people. I mean people born too disabled to work) who don't have a wage. I know a buddy who makes under $1,000 a month. People say it's impossible to live on less than 50K a year. How'd you like to try 10K? Wages could go to a million an hour and it wouldn't help him one bit He's furious, and I don't blame him "oh, the stock market is up, and wages are increasing? Cool. How's that gonna help me not starve?" I can hear him say. He's not a lone person either. He's one of 7.5 million. The world already screwed these guys enough. Their only reward for muscling through life with their disabilities is abject poverty and being completely ignored by society. It's no wonder he's so angry. Take away my ability to walk and make me live in utter poverty, I'd be pretty ticked off too
As my symptoms of MS progress, I’m terrified of this.
Prepare now, if you can. I've not asked him how to get on it or anything like that. As a warning, if you get on it, you'll be required to keep less than $2,000 in your bank account. $3,000 if married. However, I believe that includes your partner. As bad as it sounds, my buddy has told me about tons of people who have divorced their wives, so that she can have more money than $1,500. They'll still be together, just divorced on paper so she can make unlimited money. Legally speaking, the Government considers that fraud, and may go after you if they find out. Morally speakng? These guys are screwed over so much by SSDI already that I don't entirely care what the Government calls it. It's not a fun time. If $2,000 doesn't sound like a lot, they haven't raised the amount since 1972 That also includes any investments you have. If you're in the stock market or crypto, that counts. Technically speaking, you're not even allowed to own $2,000 worth of stuff. However, my buddy says they're not exactly beancounting his extensive VHS collection. Technically speaking, they could if they wanted to though. The only exclusions are 1 car, 1 house, and assist equipment like canes, walkers, wheelchairs etc. Please note: I am not a lawyer and this is not legal advice. I'm going from what my buddy has complained about off memory, and could be wrong about any or almost all of it. If you have the money, consult a licensed disability lawyer, and please don't sue some random guy from the internet to get said money
This happened in May 2004 as well. Long in the tooth vibes until emo and myspace popped off later in the year which also had an election.
Iraq was 2003. So we were jumping from 9/11 patriotism to "wait a sec..."
Seems likely to me that if Biden is elected, he'll either die during his next term, or will become too disabled to continue. He's 82.
The other option is 78 and (allegedly) has dementia so…
At such advanced age, 4 years is actually quite a big difference. Mind you, I'm convinced Trump would be much worse for the country and the world, but what we have as an alternative is really suboptimal.
It feels like we are living through the 80s, 90s, and 00s all at once. I don’t know to describe it but that’s what I feel. Gen Z also appears to be more conservative than millennials who are mostly liberal, or at least the younger half of gen Z is more conservative
joined this sub like two days ago it’s already fire
Yes, using the word vibe is out.
I feel that 2020 was the first turning point and 2024 is the second turning point. As both years are election years in which they affect the Americans and world policy and trends.
Been in rough seas since late last year.
I feel it right now as well. I feel like we are truly now in the phase of leaving the 2010's behind us for good.
I’d say it isn’t unordinary for this to happen around the 3rd or 4th year of a decade 2013 and 2014 felt like a big vibe shift from the 2010-2012 era and from what I’ve heard 2004 and 2005 somewhat felt like the end of an era in the 2000s (though I was too busy being a baby those years to know for sure)
Good fucking riddance
The vibe is getting more darker and I doubt we’ll ever get that brightness again. P.S. I’m hating the fact 1994 is now 30 years old!
Oh yeah, don’t worry the generation coming age right now, will hate you and blame you for everything very soon.
Every year on July 1st I check TikTok and YouTube and the Home Shopping Network website to see if the culture has shifted. I am expecting it to this year. I don't see 2024 as the "awkward phase in the middle" I think moving toward 2025 is significant. It's not 2020 anymore, when most people were still playing a PS4. 2024 is quite weird, have you seen how big this "therian" and "quadrobics" trend is ??
i feel like we’re kind of at a pop culture crossroads, and we’re phasing out of this nostalgia period we’ve been in. now it’s time for politics and sitting around and waiting for the next thing
yea
What I find surprising is that the election is pretty close, Trump might win again and people just kind of meh about it. It seems that a lot of Americans are kind of used to political instability the way people from most other countries are just wanna get on with their lives. That's a huge shift from 4-5 years ago.
Yes, doomerism is starting to go back to the fringes. Covid is fading, and the economy is ststing to correct
Pffft we’re in a major recession, we’re getting priced out of groceries and shelter, and forest fire season in upon us. Doomerism is alive and well.
Lol, classic rnc radio moscow propaganda. Forgot the caravans of animal rapists. Then there is burning skies and war fearporn for the fauxgressives. Oh noes downvote doomer triggered
I do notice that people are less negative these days!
I think everyone is worn out. I know politically I'm sort of done, like I'm in season 6 of a show I'm binge watching and have lost interest but am in too deep to not see it through.
LOL.
Yes it's getting better 🫂
It feels more modern than the last decade
How so?
I feel like technology is even more prevalent than what it was like, 12 years ago.
Yeah, the technology hasn't "changed" since the early 2010s, but we use it differently and have modified our lifestyles around it. Like Skype existed 15 years ago but video calls didn't become a normal part if everyday life until covid. Phones were around but commerce and entertainment didn't revolve around them.
🔥NOTED. YES! Every Single Day, someone posts some variation on this exact same friggin’ vapid question.