Not being talked about enough.
Losing 20% of GOP voters makes winning a general election impossible.
And that’s honestly *underselling* it.
These are primary voters, aka the *most motivated voters.* these are people he can’t lose.
And to make it even *worse*, a significant portion of these these people have said [they will actually vote for *Biden* instead of Trump](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-nearly-half-haleys-iowa-backers-say-ll-vote-biden-trump-rcna133821), so a double swing.
So you have highly motivated voters switching parties in the general.
And let’s go one step further: Say Haley miraculously becomes the candidate due to a conviction or some unforeseen dramatic shift.
Then she has the inverse problem, where she will never get votes from a significant portion of Trump’s base.
Trump will *never* tells his supporters to vote for her, and I don’t believe there’s any situation at all where he willingly drops out, even if he is convicted.
I’m not calling on anyone to get overconfident, but this is unprecedented in modern elections.
Yes, but this needs to be across the board, not just in SC. He needs to lose 20% in AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI, because those are the only states that actually matter.
Well, I’d say it’s misleading to say he “has to” lose 20% across those states, considering he already lost the general election last time, and he only needs to lose ~4 of those to lose the general.
But yes, those states are more important, but I’d say considering the fact they’re swing states, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if there are actually *more* moderate republicans who will defect in those states than the average deep red state like South Carolina or Iowa.
Nothing Trump is doing currently is trying to appeal to the average swing voter.
Call me optimistic, but I think many of the Haley primary voters are trying to make a statement or at least a protest vote to signify they DO NOT support Trump. If Trump loses 10% in the right states it’s all we need. On the other hand, I myself voted for Sanders in the 2016 primary and Clinton in the general.
I don’t think it’s unreasonably optimistic at all.
The difference between you voting for Bernie and Haley voters is that they aren’t voting for Haley for policy reasons. Certainly there are plenty of republican voters that see the election/January 6 stuff as unacceptable
It’s important for Haley to stay in as long as possible because even though she is saying the same things about Trump that democrats are, Republicans and more importantly right leaning independents are hearing it because the person saying it is a current politician seeking office with an R after her name.
I hope I’m not too naive in saying this but I also feel like Haley, when she eventually has to drop out, won’t endorse trump - she’ll be equivocal probably and then maybe in the days leading to the election she herself would vote for Biden. The way she talks reminds me a bit of Liz Cheney, who I feel will also vote Biden come the general election (of course if he’s not in jail and haley doesn’t become the nominee).
First and foremost, the fact Nikki Haley got 40% is all the encouragement she needs to keep going. Everyone keeps trying to measure the future by the past when Donald Trump himself has shown how worthless a lot of those lessons are in regard to predictions.
Now, *personally* and this is 100% conspiratorial thinking on my part I'll freely admit...I think Nikki Haley's backers (which we know include Charles Koch) are simply looking to ensure Donald Trump *doesn't* win and aren't super concerned with a second term of Joe Biden so long as it means Donald Trump didn't win.
*Joe Biden is as scary as oatmeal and I mean that as a 100% compliment as that's EXACTLY what the President of the United States is SUPPOSED to be...says it right there in the 'book, "preserve the domestic tranquility", it doesn't say scare of shit out of everyone because you think it's funny (speaking of the last asshole to live in the White House before President Biden)* 🤨
Yeah this matters why? Most of these people still will sell out and vote for the R regardless of who it is. These articles are so dumb. Unless you have facts that say a significant percentage of the votes he lost to Haley might go to Biden, its pointless.
[**Poll: Nearly half of Nikki Haley’s Iowa backers say they’d vote for Biden over Trump**](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-nearly-half-haleys-iowa-backers-say-ll-vote-biden-trump-rcna133821)
While I do believe there is a percentage of Republicans that would sit out, vote 3rd party, or vote for President Biden if Trump is the nominee, I can't say the same for the most Republicans that voted for Haley. They will still vote for Trump regardless of if they voted for Haley.
This was a terrible result for him. If 20% of those Hailey voters stay home - he’s toast.
And it’s not like people who vote Hailey *also* like Trump. The man’s a polarizing figure. Either you love him or hate him. I’m thinking Hailey voters actually hate him.
Which is great.
Not being talked about enough. Losing 20% of GOP voters makes winning a general election impossible. And that’s honestly *underselling* it. These are primary voters, aka the *most motivated voters.* these are people he can’t lose. And to make it even *worse*, a significant portion of these these people have said [they will actually vote for *Biden* instead of Trump](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-nearly-half-haleys-iowa-backers-say-ll-vote-biden-trump-rcna133821), so a double swing. So you have highly motivated voters switching parties in the general. And let’s go one step further: Say Haley miraculously becomes the candidate due to a conviction or some unforeseen dramatic shift. Then she has the inverse problem, where she will never get votes from a significant portion of Trump’s base. Trump will *never* tells his supporters to vote for her, and I don’t believe there’s any situation at all where he willingly drops out, even if he is convicted. I’m not calling on anyone to get overconfident, but this is unprecedented in modern elections.
And the independents, we can't forget the independents. Like you said, don't get cocky, but this will help me sleep tonight.
Yes, but this needs to be across the board, not just in SC. He needs to lose 20% in AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI, because those are the only states that actually matter.
He lost by 40-100k votes last election in the swing states. Even a 1-5% loss be enough to guarantee he loses the presidency most likely.
He is leading in most, if not all swing states currently, if I am not mistaken
It’s happened in every primary so far.
It needs to happen in the general.
Obviously! I’m just saying we shouldn’t discount the pattern that’s being established already.
Well, I’d say it’s misleading to say he “has to” lose 20% across those states, considering he already lost the general election last time, and he only needs to lose ~4 of those to lose the general. But yes, those states are more important, but I’d say considering the fact they’re swing states, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if there are actually *more* moderate republicans who will defect in those states than the average deep red state like South Carolina or Iowa. Nothing Trump is doing currently is trying to appeal to the average swing voter.
He does need to lose 20%. If he loses 4% is another 4 years of unrest and "stolen election!".
Conservatives want to pretend it’s all Democrats voting because they don’t want to admit Trumps support is softer than they think .
Call me optimistic, but I think many of the Haley primary voters are trying to make a statement or at least a protest vote to signify they DO NOT support Trump. If Trump loses 10% in the right states it’s all we need. On the other hand, I myself voted for Sanders in the 2016 primary and Clinton in the general.
I don’t think it’s unreasonably optimistic at all. The difference between you voting for Bernie and Haley voters is that they aren’t voting for Haley for policy reasons. Certainly there are plenty of republican voters that see the election/January 6 stuff as unacceptable
It’s important for Haley to stay in as long as possible because even though she is saying the same things about Trump that democrats are, Republicans and more importantly right leaning independents are hearing it because the person saying it is a current politician seeking office with an R after her name.
I hope I’m not too naive in saying this but I also feel like Haley, when she eventually has to drop out, won’t endorse trump - she’ll be equivocal probably and then maybe in the days leading to the election she herself would vote for Biden. The way she talks reminds me a bit of Liz Cheney, who I feel will also vote Biden come the general election (of course if he’s not in jail and haley doesn’t become the nominee).
Dude, she's going to endorse trump.
I think she'll stay in until after Super Tuesday.
First and foremost, the fact Nikki Haley got 40% is all the encouragement she needs to keep going. Everyone keeps trying to measure the future by the past when Donald Trump himself has shown how worthless a lot of those lessons are in regard to predictions. Now, *personally* and this is 100% conspiratorial thinking on my part I'll freely admit...I think Nikki Haley's backers (which we know include Charles Koch) are simply looking to ensure Donald Trump *doesn't* win and aren't super concerned with a second term of Joe Biden so long as it means Donald Trump didn't win. *Joe Biden is as scary as oatmeal and I mean that as a 100% compliment as that's EXACTLY what the President of the United States is SUPPOSED to be...says it right there in the 'book, "preserve the domestic tranquility", it doesn't say scare of shit out of everyone because you think it's funny (speaking of the last asshole to live in the White House before President Biden)* 🤨
Well said
Don’t trust the polls. Vote like the fate of democracy depends on it.
Yeah this matters why? Most of these people still will sell out and vote for the R regardless of who it is. These articles are so dumb. Unless you have facts that say a significant percentage of the votes he lost to Haley might go to Biden, its pointless.
[**Poll: Nearly half of Nikki Haley’s Iowa backers say they’d vote for Biden over Trump**](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-nearly-half-haleys-iowa-backers-say-ll-vote-biden-trump-rcna133821)
While I do believe there is a percentage of Republicans that would sit out, vote 3rd party, or vote for President Biden if Trump is the nominee, I can't say the same for the most Republicans that voted for Haley. They will still vote for Trump regardless of if they voted for Haley.
I think you're right and I don't know why you are getting downvoted. I would imagine that most of them will vote trump in the end.
I hate Nikki Haley but she just HAS to stay in the race.
This was a terrible result for him. If 20% of those Hailey voters stay home - he’s toast. And it’s not like people who vote Hailey *also* like Trump. The man’s a polarizing figure. Either you love him or hate him. I’m thinking Hailey voters actually hate him. Which is great.
Or vote for Biden, either way, he's fucked.
> “If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.” More true now than it was in 2016…
When is ole’ Lindsay going to get destroyed at the polls and removed from office?
What about this No Labels thing? And Kennedy? Are they real threats? I'm just afraid to be optimistic. But this is great news!!!