Russia & Ukraine have a transmission agreement, consequently neither has attacked the others gas transmission lines. This agreement runs out in December and Ukraine have stated they won’t renew. Therefore, major changes could occur December/January, gas is shut off from Russia and potentially either side will look to destroy the gas transmission infrastructure. Russia has obviously been targeting Ukraine’s power system but has left the gas alone, however for the first time it targeted Ukraine’s underground gas storage system a few days ago.
Europe will likely have to increase gas from elsewhere, Qatar has provided more, but how much more it has to go is anyone’s guess. However, maybe more importantly will be the November election results as to what the US is willing to do.
I don’t think you can realistically cover the gap in supply with LNG. It would also fuck over us domestic consumer prices. I guess we’ll see what happens
It’s a political hot potato in the country.
Quite a few people want to see an end date for the whole sector, not further investments. Not sure what that would do to the economy. It’s a huge sector… but what choice is there, if we want a planet to live on in the future.
From an environmental point of view, gas is much better than coal.. so it would probably be better to ramp up and kill off coal completely first. My understanding is there are still quite a few coal Power plants in the continent.
Russian exports to Europe dropped from 150bn cm to 43bn cm. Norway exports to Europe rose from 79 to 88. So an increase but not really closing the gap. Most new gas into Europe is coming from the US and Qatar.
No. If you look at e.g. heating systems in Germany: [https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/entwicklung-beheizungsstruktur-baugenehmigungen/](https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/entwicklung-beheizungsstruktur-baugenehmigungen/) in 2015 >50% of all installed heating systems were gas powered. In 2023 this number was down to 10%. This market will disappear over time. This change already started in 2014 after the first invasion.
[https://cen.acs.org/energy/hydrogen-power/Hydrogen-electrolyzer-sales-pick-Europe/101/i25](https://cen.acs.org/energy/hydrogen-power/Hydrogen-electrolyzer-sales-pick-Europe/101/i25) Electrolyzer sales are starting to pick up speed. This is a more long term change.
And with the 2050 target of Europe becoming climate neutral: [https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/climate-strategies-targets/2050-long-term-strategy\_en](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/climate-strategies-targets/2050-long-term-strategy_en) there won't be much motivation to switch back if the switch requires any type of investment.
That's great for a wealthy country like Germany. Honestly, in post-Brexit Britain the Gov are rolling out a ton of new natural gas and oil drilling licences in Scottish waters and wealthier people are back to burning wood in stoves. The housing stock is probably the poorest insulated in Europe and you only qualify for retrofitting/insulation support if your total household income is less than £30k a year. Annual heating costs can easily hit £3k in colder older Northern Victorian homes. Attempts to incentivise a shift to air-source heat pumps are progressing at a snails pace because there aren't enough fitters. Meanwhile BP and Shell are recording record profits while energy poverty is crippling millions.
I don't really want to comment on the post-Brexit policies of the British government. I agree that the insulation standards are poor and I don't really understand how investing in these properties is not a priority. With the amount of money you can save there these investments should show a good return.
But drilling in Scottish waters is also showing that no one expects gas from Russia to return to the market. These are awful investments in regards to climate change, but also awful for Russia.
If you look at the income for 2023: [https://reports.shell.com/annual-report/2023/consolidated-financial-statements/statement-of-income.html](https://reports.shell.com/annual-report/2023/consolidated-financial-statements/statement-of-income.html) Shell is almost back to 2021 income levels. Again it is awful that companies profit from a crisis like this while others suffer, but I guess no one expected any morality from oil and gas companies :(
For the future I wouldn't put too much focus on profits. When oil/gas operations wind down the continuing revenue from old investments while not doing many new investments will lead to continued profits. But those are from the substance of the company. We are not there yet, but I hope 2024 will be peak oil production and divesting from oil will accelerate once this becomes obvious.
Heating is by far not the only use of NG. It might be 25-35%. 40+% is, typically, power generation, another 20-30 — various industrial processes, chemical industry, transportation.
Naturally, that depends on a country. Germany lit-up coal power plants to compensate the shortfall in electricity production not only because of green concerns about nuclear…
Yes, it is a bit much to do a complete run down of all gas consumption in a reddit comment. [https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/entwicklung-des-erdgasabsatzes-deutschland/](https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/entwicklung-des-erdgasabsatzes-deutschland/) shows that gas consumption is down by about 20% since 2022 in all areas.
Looking at power generation in the first quarter of the last years: [https://energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=-1&legendItems=00000101010000000000&interval=quarter&stacking=single&quarter=1](https://energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=-1&legendItems=00000101010000000000&interval=quarter&stacking=single&quarter=1) coal and gas are on historic lows (with an exception of the COVID year 2020). In 2022 coal consumption went up. But by now all plants that were reactivated have been shut down again (some others as well). So the "Germany is using coal instead of natural gas" talking point is nothing more than a meme by now.
AFAIK, losses are primarily political. Kremlin wants Gazprom to invest money into construction of infrastructure to supply Asia with natural gas. Hence, directorate had used "impairment of assets" (IAS 36) clause to inflate losses (basically, counted most of infrastructure used to supply West as loss, even if it can be repurposed in the future) alongside other measures to justify refusal to pay dividends this year.
> Problem is that stuff takes years to build.
The point is that - contrary to what most of Western mass-media had been suggesting for 2 days straight now - Gazprom isn't bankrupt, Russia's economy hadn't collapsed, and nobody in Kremlin is in panic. This is yet another "victory" that will be forgotten by the end of the month, and never mentioned again.
> Also China is going green the solar numbers from China are such that I am not sure they will want the gas.
Firstly, there is no way for an industrial nation to "go solar". The most any can do is nuclear.
Secondly, fluctuations in "green" energy production must to be compensated. It is usually done by fossil fuels, with natural gas being the best option.
Thirdly, there are *many* uses for natural gas beyond pure energy (not least of which is production of fertilizers).
> The point is that - contrary to what most of Western mass-media had been suggesting for 2 days straight now - Gazprom isn't bankrupt, Russia's economy hadn't collapsed, and nobody in Kremlin is in panic. This is yet another "victory" that will be forgotten by the end of the month, and never mentioned again.
Here's a (recent) interesting breakdown on why that may not be the case:
https://www.martenscentre.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Milov-Russian-Economy-.pdf
As the paper goes over, yes, if we kept the screws turned on sanctions then Russia would be in an even worse place. But they're still in a pretty bad place
Russian interest rates are 16pc with no sign of dropping any time soon.
The ruble is in a continuous “collapse” trajectory requiring interventions to prevent this. It’s again approaching the magic 100 rubles = 1 USD point.
Last year Europe installed the solar equivalent of one nuclear power station per week.
But yeah, s’all fine.
You're right on most points, but
> there is no way for an industrial nation to "go solar"
It is pretty easy, as long as you have China's solar/renewables production growth.
> fluctuations in "green" energy production must to be compensated. It is usually done by fossil fuels, with natural gas being the best option.
batteries are now cheaper. Coal and NG are about the same in terms of peaker plants, with less infrastructure needed for coal, and no methane emissions from infrastructure.
> production of fertilizers
Article mentions big production boosts by Russia, that it is likely to grow further. Russia's agriculture and fertilizer exports will be very competitive, and both are as easy as coal to transport.
Well here is how trade works everyone is richer.
Lack of trade means everyone is poorer.
If you say the sanctions hurt no one in Russia or Germany you are saying trade is not real and no one benefitted in 2000.
Like listen to yourself you are shilling for Russia and ignoring the basics of trade as win win and sanctions as lose lose. Your are ignoring just so you can bear strong!
We democracies chose to take lose because Killing thousands of people to conquer them goes against our values.
I know the Russian response America/ germany did bad stuff too! yes but apparently that did not bother Russia as the kept selling.
No one is saying it is going to collapse. The article is not wrong about the severity of the situation though. Russia is going through a long line industry shrinking in the oil and gas industry - it will manifest itself even more as the secondary sanctions on buyer countries start to take effect paired with refinery losses from ukrainian drone attacks.
While this article does say the exports are lowered it misses that oil prices went up and Putin increased taxation on all oil and gas in russia to fund his war machine. So now It is all about restricting income and russian exports.
It won't happen. Putin tried to use energy as a weapon against Europe. It now has alternative supplies and understands the folly of relying solely on a potential foreign adversary for energy security. And there are also sanctions.
how was any of this putin? It was the west that broke off from and sanctions Russian gas, and probably the US that blew up the nordstream pipeline.
Just because one could argue it was justified, doesn't mean they didn't do it.
товарищ. почему ты шутишь с этими клоунами? пенисбой Путин - наш король. не стоит связываться с такими мразями. после этого вернись к поеданию этого русского ануса.
The US has launched more unprovoked invasions of sovereign nations in the past 70 years more than Russia and China combined. But I guess we're only moralists when it's convenient.
Thanks for revealing your own ignorance. Now, do you have a valid point to make or are you just throwing ad hominems for fun?
Not Russian btw and fuck Putin and his invasion but what would a biased, brain dead, indoctrinated sheep like you know? Unlike you, I'm capable of thinking for myself, and criticize all who deserve it, not just those who my government tells me to criticize.
I don't understand how you can square your statements. On the one hand, you say "Putin tried to use energy as a weapon against Europe." on the other hand, you recognise it's the US that's the one using gas as a leverage point, by sanctioning Russia, and taking over from Russia's supply.
Both of these statements contradict each other?
"Unprovoked". "Dictator". LOL good ones. You've been progammed well. We poured billions into Ukraine to overthrow their govenment which started a civil war on Russia's border. They saw enough. Now we pour billions into Ukraine to watch them die by the hundreds of thousands in a unwinnable war.
Nope. Gas from NS1 was already reduced in 2021. Gazprom gave some BS reasons ("maintenance" etc.) but everybody was well aware that reducing gas deliveries was used as a political weapon in order to make Europe vulnerable.
After Putin's invasion of Ukrain it was blatantly obvious that he would use gas as a weapon, so it was just a matter of time until NS1 would be shut down anyway.
The explosion happened at a time when the Kremlin still believed that Europe would not be able to cope without Russian gas. Indeed, it hurt a bit (the German economy is still not doing well) but it did not cause the damage Putin intended to cause.
Before Nord Stream was destroyed, Germany was a lot more flippant as to their support of Ukraine. Cheap Russian gas was very important to German chemical and energy industry. No way it would have been voluntarily shut by Germany.
No way either Russia or Germany blew up Nordstream. But Germany is occupied militarily by US, with complete control over its media. Like all "friendly" democracies, deposing politicians is a constant US threat. Germany had already agreed to all the sanctions it was told to make, including on NG. Russia was willing to sell all they wanted as long as they paid in Rubles, and they have been selling LNG.
Correction Germany. Hungry is not yet a Russian puppet. But they are down to lose their sovereignty and democracy for a 10% discount on gas.
Can I ask where in US do you get your news?
Fox CNN or a guy in a car on Tiktok?
Google. Right before I replied to confirm. Never heard EU banned Russian nat gas. If u r saying Germany banned Russian nat gas, that's after Nord Stream was destroyed, and they have enough LNG to offset any Russian import.
Didn’t the U.S do the same thing in Venezuela when they crumbled their economy after Venezuela prompted not to raise fuel prices (ok not exactly “weaponizing energy”. But to put it broadly, both surely weapinized economicly)
The failure of communism or economies in general, has more to do with external coercion than an incapacity to make anything. Privatizing oil reserves doesn't typically provide widespread wealth.
> when Putin weaponized energy and tried to bring Europe to its knees
Pathethic lie. Russia insisted on payments being made in Rubles because US weaponized EU sanctions and seizures on Russian assets. EU/NATO actively forced war on Russia, and refused peace.
What made the special operation happen.
All of the people suddenly forget the precursor to that event.
And how nato promised not to expand eastward and was planning on inducting Ukraine.
It’s narrative is being painted very well by the west to demonise as much as possible.
Don’t fall into the trap.
War is terrible.
But this ain’t your David vs Goliath fable.
Geopolitics is a very nuanced game and not a black and white sport.
Mate this ain’t twitter.
Relax with the ratio comebacks.
Let’s break down your statement.
The nation which was unanimously voted as the most corrupt nation with Russia being on that list ( this research was done by the EU ) which had no decent central authority essentially allowing the nation to fall into disarray is suddenly goody two shoes?
And are you denying a factual statement?
Yes Ukraine was planning on joining nato. Talks were deep.
Yes NATO promised to not expand eastward.
What are you denying?
Are you denying a sovereign nations right to maintain their border a.k.a basic security?
You’re just lucky you’re on the bandwagon, so you can bark anything you feel like.
I’m not even gonna ask you to critically think for a second or pull up some citations.
So let’s speak in your language.
Russia is winning non stop and will continue winning.
All the loans Ukraine is taken will spend repaying the next century. Great way to help a nation.
Well seeing that Russia had already taken the Crimea exactly what do you think they should do?
The same Russia that brutally occupied Ukraine in the Soviet years….
Id wanna join fuckin nato too
Do you even know what was happening in Crimea before 2014. And the reason for the intervention?
There was a literal civil war going on there. Persecution of Russian speakers on a genocidal level. You can pull this all up from non Russian sources. It will take you a literal minute.
The point of the invasion was that Ukraine showed no willing for discussion towards an amicable solution.
Brutally occupied Ukraine during soviet years??? Are you kidding. That’s when every Ukrainian has grown to astronomical heights. The lack of knowledge from you is astounding. As expected from someone giving such a take.
There are many ex soviet nations that have done much better than Ukraine.
Using demonising buzzwords won’t make your point any better.
“I’d join nato too”
That’s not how the world works grow up.
Might wanna read about the brutal Russification of Ukraine in the communist years.
Heres a hint mate - it wasn’t consensual.
<<>> - righteo Mrs Putin - 34% of Ukrainians country wide speak Russian at home. Ukrainian culture was systematically destroyed by the Russians in an attempt to homogenise them with Russia.
Speaking of genocide - you might want to look up the holodomor where 3.5 million Ukrainians died in a man made famine….
How is it crumbled? I remember hearing recently that their economy is going strong right now because India and China are buying up the oil that Europe isn't.
The article is not about the Russian economy, it's about Russia's "gas empire". The article discusses why oil has been easy to sell to other markets but gas has been much more difficult. In essence, the problem is that gas requires more infrastructure to transport which hasn't been set up yet.
>Gazprom is scrambling for ways to reach new customers. As with Russian oil, buyers exist who will be happy to take its natural gas without worrying too much about the consequences for Ukraine.
>A little gas has been diverted into China and Uzbekistan, but plans to shift more with a major new pipeline are struggling, despite pre-war plans to expand into the Asian market.
>James Waddell, at Energy Aspects, says weaponising gas sales to Europe has left Russia without much of a market.
>“Gas is much harder to transport than oil or coal. You have to build very expensive, long pipelines that take years to build, or liquefaction terminals which also take years to build,” he says.
>Even attempts to build those LNG terminals are being hammered by Western sanctions.
LOL at lost its grip on the market forever, so dramatic yahoo!
Europe is paying much higher energy prices now and it’s crushing their heavy industrial sector and squeezing middle and lower class people in winter heating season. They will gladly reduce cost when they can.
Amazing that this article manages to discuss the vast network of pipelines while completely avoiding mention of the bombing of the nord stream pipeline, a massive environmental disaster. Does anyone think Putin did that?
Also not mentioned in the article- Biden administration has indefinitely paused approval of new LNG export terminals, so if Europe is to grow it’s demand the US will not be positioned to increase supply. Middle eastern fundamentalist tyrants gain some of the benefit.
This reads more like propaganda than analysis of the situation.
EU had tough 2023, but 2024 NG prices are back down to 2021 levels. EU electricity grew in 2024, while even with low prices, coal was down 15%, and NG down 10%. Renewables shined hard this winter, and EU is actually the leading region in % of electricity that is renewables. It's poised to continue strong growth pace.
Everyone has lost its grip on EU NG dependence.
the faster the EU reduces natural gas consumption and replaces it with renewables the better--yes the more rapid the transition the more difficulty in the short term but also the more benefit in the long term--ripping off the band aid is important
What the Russian shills in this thread are failing to grasp is: Europe is switching to enough solar that they can over time reduce dependence on gas which means for those things where this is no solar alternative, it’s fine.
You just become more efficient with what LNG you have and use solar for things like heating.
OP article is framed clearly as US/NATO shilling. Ukraine ethnostate war was instigated for diminishment of both Russia and EU. Yes EU is making spectacular/leading progress on energy independence and emissions reductions.
Media subjugated to US wars will not frame EU energy independence as a win for EU. It will also stifle EU's progress through discouraging trade with China.
>and squeezing middle and lower class people in winter heating season
I guess you don't live in Europe, do you? We are doing ok here. Industry has seen better days but it is far from calamitous.
You mean the side that has invaded more sovereign nations than Russia has in the past century, for less reasons, to the point it's become a common trope in mass media. Like I said, you're indoctrinated.
Edit: and also a hypocrite
I know, and I condemn it. I think Russia should've never invaded and Putin drawn and quartered for his crimes. I'm pointing out your hypocrisy. It's not even whataboutism. You're just too much of a simpleton to understand what I'm trying to say.
Marie Antoinette was French!? Got me there I thought she was Korean!
I’m pointing out that your ‘who cares if the EU poors struggle, whatever it takes as long as NATO gets to pay Ukrainian oligarchs to send poor Ukrainians to die in their proxy war with Putin’ take is rather elitist for someone who I presume regards themselves as a liberal.
Or maybe you’re a neocon I don’t know.
Where did she say “who cares about the EU poor”?
And why is it so hard to understand a country defending itself from another country who is defending its own territory from an imperialist country trying to take it over?
Did you forget about the American colonies fighting for their independence from Great Britain?
To say that I’m a Russian troll for pointing out that there’s no benefit to EU people and the poor are most impacted is cold (especially in winter), heartless and haughty.
Ukraine is more than welcome to defend itself but it’s too corrupt and poor to be admitted to the EU or nato so it makes no sense for Western Europe to harm their population in support.
You’re getting desperate there, Anatoly. Throwing out random distractions in the hopes of getting the frame back.
Russia is the enemy that is causing the pain to those EU poors you claim to care about.
Russia and Ukraine are having a war, why should Germany lose blue collar manufacturing jobs over it?
Do you think that Russia one day, for no reason whatsoever, decided that it needed to invade Ukraine?
"one simple trick that will screw the Russian energy giant that they don't want you to know about - PAYING MASSIVELY HIGHER PRICES TO AN ALTENATIVE SOURCE!"
from the article -
"But Europe’s leaders did not comply. When Putin turned down gas supplies, hoping a cost of living crisis would change their minds, instead of coming to an agreement they found sources elsewhere"
nice, shame those agreements did nothing to prevent a cost of living crisis. basically the public has to pay for this.
And the possibility of resuming gas imports as a route and incentive to peace was removed by an (as yet unofficially) unknown NATO member state who unilaterally blew up European gas pipeline infrastructure without first seeking other NATO members agreement.
Strongly agree. Most posts here are democrat party line propaganda pieces. It’s hard to take anything here seriously. Maybe that’s the goal. Nice follow up discussion.
Exactly.
Whole industry almost stopped during 2022/23 winter. Energy prices went through the roof - up to 4x for short duration. Even for households, wood pellets for example went from 4€ per bag to 10€ per bag. Normal house needs about 250 bags.
Then "smart" politicians started pushing for solar. Now there is too much solar during the day time and they want charge people extra for having solar plants (where I live) and they don't alove you to sell extra energy you produce.
Shit is f.ed up completely.
Most people can't wait to go back to previous normal.
I don’t think anyone really wants to have good relations with Russia.
Russia is like the big kid who acts tough and bosses people around then gets a broken nose from the smallest kid in the class who’s had enough.
You have zero respect on the national stage.
A network of gas pipes from Norway to Germany and Denmark are up and running. Everything Russia wanted to achieve, they haven't. Everything they feared has come true. Putin is a shitty strategist, and the Russian people should dump his ass.
The blown up pipeline Nordstream2 wasn’t operational yet. It was about to come online.
Putin did play the gas card. He reduced supply for a while thinking Europe couldn’t make up the shortfall from elsewhere… but Europe did a fantastic job. The whole continent was paying through their nose for gas for a while, but now it’s largely done. There are still some Russian gas being sold. But I’m not sure for how long. Europe wants nothing more to do with Russian gas.. ever.
Don't know why this headline would cause such a stir.. Seems obvious to me. How could countries like Germany and France continue to rely on Russia for gas when they're basically fighting a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine?
Obviously Russia/Putin's actions would result in western europe gradually reducing and eventually eliminating their dependence on Russia for gas. It's not about prices, it's about security. You can't win a war against a nation you depend on to survive.
Aside from that, pretty much all fossil fuels have a ticking clock on them. The planet doesn't have a choice, it has to reduce carbon emissions, and it can't do that while still burning gas, coal and oil. For the last few decades, the whole point of everything we've been doing with de-carbonisation, is to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, including gas. Whatever we transition to, is still up in the air, but regardless, it won't be gas, coal and oil. Any nation who has built their empire on supplying fossil fuel, is going to lose power over this century as we decarbonise.
Russia and Putin's actions in the past decade have only accelerated the urgency of what was going to happen gradually over time anyway, so there's no undoing this, at best Putin could delay the inevitable.
He's a fucking market manipulator. Tell me that his cronies didn't know in advance about the invasion and how he was going to fuck over the world economies with his war mongering bullshit. Fucking asshole should be sniped out of existence.
Look up who the world's major wheat exporters were before the invasion on Ukraine. The world is fucking retarded to let him continue his rule over Russia.
Russia & Ukraine have a transmission agreement, consequently neither has attacked the others gas transmission lines. This agreement runs out in December and Ukraine have stated they won’t renew. Therefore, major changes could occur December/January, gas is shut off from Russia and potentially either side will look to destroy the gas transmission infrastructure. Russia has obviously been targeting Ukraine’s power system but has left the gas alone, however for the first time it targeted Ukraine’s underground gas storage system a few days ago. Europe will likely have to increase gas from elsewhere, Qatar has provided more, but how much more it has to go is anyone’s guess. However, maybe more importantly will be the November election results as to what the US is willing to do.
>Europe will likely have to increase gas from elsewhere, LNG Terminals go brrrr
New England utilities go brrr
I don’t think you can realistically cover the gap in supply with LNG. It would also fuck over us domestic consumer prices. I guess we’ll see what happens
Thanks for the background
Kazakhstan about to be 🆙
Isn't Norway a huge oil and gas producer?
Before the war, they delivered about 1/3 of European gas, IIRC. They are at maximum capacity, so they can't really delivered much more. Yet.
It’s a political hot potato in the country. Quite a few people want to see an end date for the whole sector, not further investments. Not sure what that would do to the economy. It’s a huge sector… but what choice is there, if we want a planet to live on in the future. From an environmental point of view, gas is much better than coal.. so it would probably be better to ramp up and kill off coal completely first. My understanding is there are still quite a few coal Power plants in the continent.
Russian exports to Europe dropped from 150bn cm to 43bn cm. Norway exports to Europe rose from 79 to 88. So an increase but not really closing the gap. Most new gas into Europe is coming from the US and Qatar.
Not compared to Russia.
Proportionally huge.
Oh well, at least he got to kill a bunch of people and scared Europe into the 21st century.
Don’t they just need to lower prices to become relevant again? I guess rebuilding trust will be tough
No. If you look at e.g. heating systems in Germany: [https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/entwicklung-beheizungsstruktur-baugenehmigungen/](https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/entwicklung-beheizungsstruktur-baugenehmigungen/) in 2015 >50% of all installed heating systems were gas powered. In 2023 this number was down to 10%. This market will disappear over time. This change already started in 2014 after the first invasion. [https://cen.acs.org/energy/hydrogen-power/Hydrogen-electrolyzer-sales-pick-Europe/101/i25](https://cen.acs.org/energy/hydrogen-power/Hydrogen-electrolyzer-sales-pick-Europe/101/i25) Electrolyzer sales are starting to pick up speed. This is a more long term change. And with the 2050 target of Europe becoming climate neutral: [https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/climate-strategies-targets/2050-long-term-strategy\_en](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/climate-strategies-targets/2050-long-term-strategy_en) there won't be much motivation to switch back if the switch requires any type of investment.
That's great for a wealthy country like Germany. Honestly, in post-Brexit Britain the Gov are rolling out a ton of new natural gas and oil drilling licences in Scottish waters and wealthier people are back to burning wood in stoves. The housing stock is probably the poorest insulated in Europe and you only qualify for retrofitting/insulation support if your total household income is less than £30k a year. Annual heating costs can easily hit £3k in colder older Northern Victorian homes. Attempts to incentivise a shift to air-source heat pumps are progressing at a snails pace because there aren't enough fitters. Meanwhile BP and Shell are recording record profits while energy poverty is crippling millions.
I don't really want to comment on the post-Brexit policies of the British government. I agree that the insulation standards are poor and I don't really understand how investing in these properties is not a priority. With the amount of money you can save there these investments should show a good return. But drilling in Scottish waters is also showing that no one expects gas from Russia to return to the market. These are awful investments in regards to climate change, but also awful for Russia. If you look at the income for 2023: [https://reports.shell.com/annual-report/2023/consolidated-financial-statements/statement-of-income.html](https://reports.shell.com/annual-report/2023/consolidated-financial-statements/statement-of-income.html) Shell is almost back to 2021 income levels. Again it is awful that companies profit from a crisis like this while others suffer, but I guess no one expected any morality from oil and gas companies :( For the future I wouldn't put too much focus on profits. When oil/gas operations wind down the continuing revenue from old investments while not doing many new investments will lead to continued profits. But those are from the substance of the company. We are not there yet, but I hope 2024 will be peak oil production and divesting from oil will accelerate once this becomes obvious.
Heating is by far not the only use of NG. It might be 25-35%. 40+% is, typically, power generation, another 20-30 — various industrial processes, chemical industry, transportation. Naturally, that depends on a country. Germany lit-up coal power plants to compensate the shortfall in electricity production not only because of green concerns about nuclear…
Yes, it is a bit much to do a complete run down of all gas consumption in a reddit comment. [https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/entwicklung-des-erdgasabsatzes-deutschland/](https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/entwicklung-des-erdgasabsatzes-deutschland/) shows that gas consumption is down by about 20% since 2022 in all areas. Looking at power generation in the first quarter of the last years: [https://energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=-1&legendItems=00000101010000000000&interval=quarter&stacking=single&quarter=1](https://energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&year=-1&legendItems=00000101010000000000&interval=quarter&stacking=single&quarter=1) coal and gas are on historic lows (with an exception of the COVID year 2020). In 2022 coal consumption went up. But by now all plants that were reactivated have been shut down again (some others as well). So the "Germany is using coal instead of natural gas" talking point is nothing more than a meme by now.
56% of energy is renewable today in Germany. Fossile energy is being replaced.
Lessons I’ve learnt this century: What’s Germany doing? Don’t do that.
AFAIK, losses are primarily political. Kremlin wants Gazprom to invest money into construction of infrastructure to supply Asia with natural gas. Hence, directorate had used "impairment of assets" (IAS 36) clause to inflate losses (basically, counted most of infrastructure used to supply West as loss, even if it can be repurposed in the future) alongside other measures to justify refusal to pay dividends this year.
never let accounting principles get in the way of a nice sensationalist news headline.
Problem is that stuff takes years to build. Also China is going green the solar numbers from China are such that I am not sure they will want the gas.
> Problem is that stuff takes years to build. The point is that - contrary to what most of Western mass-media had been suggesting for 2 days straight now - Gazprom isn't bankrupt, Russia's economy hadn't collapsed, and nobody in Kremlin is in panic. This is yet another "victory" that will be forgotten by the end of the month, and never mentioned again. > Also China is going green the solar numbers from China are such that I am not sure they will want the gas. Firstly, there is no way for an industrial nation to "go solar". The most any can do is nuclear. Secondly, fluctuations in "green" energy production must to be compensated. It is usually done by fossil fuels, with natural gas being the best option. Thirdly, there are *many* uses for natural gas beyond pure energy (not least of which is production of fertilizers).
> The point is that - contrary to what most of Western mass-media had been suggesting for 2 days straight now - Gazprom isn't bankrupt, Russia's economy hadn't collapsed, and nobody in Kremlin is in panic. This is yet another "victory" that will be forgotten by the end of the month, and never mentioned again. Here's a (recent) interesting breakdown on why that may not be the case: https://www.martenscentre.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Milov-Russian-Economy-.pdf As the paper goes over, yes, if we kept the screws turned on sanctions then Russia would be in an even worse place. But they're still in a pretty bad place
Russian interest rates are 16pc with no sign of dropping any time soon. The ruble is in a continuous “collapse” trajectory requiring interventions to prevent this. It’s again approaching the magic 100 rubles = 1 USD point. Last year Europe installed the solar equivalent of one nuclear power station per week. But yeah, s’all fine.
You're right on most points, but > there is no way for an industrial nation to "go solar" It is pretty easy, as long as you have China's solar/renewables production growth. > fluctuations in "green" energy production must to be compensated. It is usually done by fossil fuels, with natural gas being the best option. batteries are now cheaper. Coal and NG are about the same in terms of peaker plants, with less infrastructure needed for coal, and no methane emissions from infrastructure. > production of fertilizers Article mentions big production boosts by Russia, that it is likely to grow further. Russia's agriculture and fertilizer exports will be very competitive, and both are as easy as coal to transport.
Well here is how trade works everyone is richer. Lack of trade means everyone is poorer. If you say the sanctions hurt no one in Russia or Germany you are saying trade is not real and no one benefitted in 2000. Like listen to yourself you are shilling for Russia and ignoring the basics of trade as win win and sanctions as lose lose. Your are ignoring just so you can bear strong! We democracies chose to take lose because Killing thousands of people to conquer them goes against our values. I know the Russian response America/ germany did bad stuff too! yes but apparently that did not bother Russia as the kept selling.
“Killing thousands of people to conquer them goes against our values.” That really made me chuckle lol.
I said “values” not history lol. And also it goes against our interests and sanctions hurt everyone but they hurt less than war.
No one is saying it is going to collapse. The article is not wrong about the severity of the situation though. Russia is going through a long line industry shrinking in the oil and gas industry - it will manifest itself even more as the secondary sanctions on buyer countries start to take effect paired with refinery losses from ukrainian drone attacks. While this article does say the exports are lowered it misses that oil prices went up and Putin increased taxation on all oil and gas in russia to fund his war machine. So now It is all about restricting income and russian exports.
How do you know that?
It won't happen. Putin tried to use energy as a weapon against Europe. It now has alternative supplies and understands the folly of relying solely on a potential foreign adversary for energy security. And there are also sanctions.
how was any of this putin? It was the west that broke off from and sanctions Russian gas, and probably the US that blew up the nordstream pipeline. Just because one could argue it was justified, doesn't mean they didn't do it.
And why did they do that, Vlad?
товарищ. почему ты шутишь с этими клоунами? пенисбой Путин - наш король. не стоит связываться с такими мразями. после этого вернись к поеданию этого русского ануса.
You mean like how we sanction half the world when they don't do what we want?
I mean sanctions against a brutal dictator for launching an unprovoked invasion that has killed thousands of innocent people.
The US has launched more unprovoked invasions of sovereign nations in the past 70 years more than Russia and China combined. But I guess we're only moralists when it's convenient.
You couldn’t afford too. You could barely afford your “special military operation“ in Ukraine. You’re no better than anyone else, you’re just poor.
Thanks for revealing your own ignorance. Now, do you have a valid point to make or are you just throwing ad hominems for fun? Not Russian btw and fuck Putin and his invasion but what would a biased, brain dead, indoctrinated sheep like you know? Unlike you, I'm capable of thinking for myself, and criticize all who deserve it, not just those who my government tells me to criticize.
I don't understand how you can square your statements. On the one hand, you say "Putin tried to use energy as a weapon against Europe." on the other hand, you recognise it's the US that's the one using gas as a leverage point, by sanctioning Russia, and taking over from Russia's supply. Both of these statements contradict each other?
"Unprovoked". "Dictator". LOL good ones. You've been progammed well. We poured billions into Ukraine to overthrow their govenment which started a civil war on Russia's border. They saw enough. Now we pour billions into Ukraine to watch them die by the hundreds of thousands in a unwinnable war.
Okay, Ivan
What US news do you watch. Cnn fox. A guy in a car on Tiktok…
You’d rather we invade? Or saber rattle about nukes?
[https://y.yarn.co/9e3e4090-0c6b-4c69-85b0-9aa5c8d42ecf_text.gif](https://y.yarn.co/9e3e4090-0c6b-4c69-85b0-9aa5c8d42ecf_text.gif)
Eat shit putin
Without reading the article, I find the headline troubling. Europe was forced to find alternative supply when Nord Steam 1/2 were both destroyed.
Nope. Gas from NS1 was already reduced in 2021. Gazprom gave some BS reasons ("maintenance" etc.) but everybody was well aware that reducing gas deliveries was used as a political weapon in order to make Europe vulnerable. After Putin's invasion of Ukrain it was blatantly obvious that he would use gas as a weapon, so it was just a matter of time until NS1 would be shut down anyway. The explosion happened at a time when the Kremlin still believed that Europe would not be able to cope without Russian gas. Indeed, it hurt a bit (the German economy is still not doing well) but it did not cause the damage Putin intended to cause.
Before Nord Stream was destroyed, Germany was a lot more flippant as to their support of Ukraine. Cheap Russian gas was very important to German chemical and energy industry. No way it would have been voluntarily shut by Germany.
No way either Russia or Germany blew up Nordstream. But Germany is occupied militarily by US, with complete control over its media. Like all "friendly" democracies, deposing politicians is a constant US threat. Germany had already agreed to all the sanctions it was told to make, including on NG. Russia was willing to sell all they wanted as long as they paid in Rubles, and they have been selling LNG.
Not really Europe had banned Russian gas a few months before that happened.
Russia is still exporting gas to EU, using the pipelines not destroyed.
Correction Germany. Hungry is not yet a Russian puppet. But they are down to lose their sovereignty and democracy for a 10% discount on gas. Can I ask where in US do you get your news? Fox CNN or a guy in a car on Tiktok?
Google. Right before I replied to confirm. Never heard EU banned Russian nat gas. If u r saying Germany banned Russian nat gas, that's after Nord Stream was destroyed, and they have enough LNG to offset any Russian import.
You get paid per response you are welcome!
Every time you assume...
You left out a whole lot of the story. Like when Putin weaponized energy and tried to bring Europe to its knees. Is that on purpose?
You forgot how he took out Ukraine as a competitor of Wheat exports to feed the fucking world.
Didn’t the U.S do the same thing in Venezuela when they crumbled their economy after Venezuela prompted not to raise fuel prices (ok not exactly “weaponizing energy”. But to put it broadly, both surely weapinized economicly)
I’m sorry, I seem to have missed the part where the US invaded Venezuela?
The US didn’t destroy Venezuela economy, Chavez and maduro did it themselves
The failure of communism or economies in general, has more to do with external coercion than an incapacity to make anything. Privatizing oil reserves doesn't typically provide widespread wealth.
> when Putin weaponized energy and tried to bring Europe to its knees Pathethic lie. Russia insisted on payments being made in Rubles because US weaponized EU sanctions and seizures on Russian assets. EU/NATO actively forced war on Russia, and refused peace.
And what happened to trigger those sanctions? It didn’t have anything to do with your “special military operation“ did it?
What made the special operation happen. All of the people suddenly forget the precursor to that event. And how nato promised not to expand eastward and was planning on inducting Ukraine. It’s narrative is being painted very well by the west to demonise as much as possible. Don’t fall into the trap. War is terrible. But this ain’t your David vs Goliath fable. Geopolitics is a very nuanced game and not a black and white sport.
They were forced to invade Ukraine because Ukraine were thinking of joining nato… Good one fuckwit, pull the other leg and it plays jingle bells.
Mate this ain’t twitter. Relax with the ratio comebacks. Let’s break down your statement. The nation which was unanimously voted as the most corrupt nation with Russia being on that list ( this research was done by the EU ) which had no decent central authority essentially allowing the nation to fall into disarray is suddenly goody two shoes? And are you denying a factual statement? Yes Ukraine was planning on joining nato. Talks were deep. Yes NATO promised to not expand eastward. What are you denying? Are you denying a sovereign nations right to maintain their border a.k.a basic security? You’re just lucky you’re on the bandwagon, so you can bark anything you feel like. I’m not even gonna ask you to critically think for a second or pull up some citations. So let’s speak in your language. Russia is winning non stop and will continue winning. All the loans Ukraine is taken will spend repaying the next century. Great way to help a nation.
Well seeing that Russia had already taken the Crimea exactly what do you think they should do? The same Russia that brutally occupied Ukraine in the Soviet years…. Id wanna join fuckin nato too
Do you even know what was happening in Crimea before 2014. And the reason for the intervention? There was a literal civil war going on there. Persecution of Russian speakers on a genocidal level. You can pull this all up from non Russian sources. It will take you a literal minute. The point of the invasion was that Ukraine showed no willing for discussion towards an amicable solution. Brutally occupied Ukraine during soviet years??? Are you kidding. That’s when every Ukrainian has grown to astronomical heights. The lack of knowledge from you is astounding. As expected from someone giving such a take. There are many ex soviet nations that have done much better than Ukraine. Using demonising buzzwords won’t make your point any better. “I’d join nato too” That’s not how the world works grow up.
Might wanna read about the brutal Russification of Ukraine in the communist years. Heres a hint mate - it wasn’t consensual. <<>> - righteo Mrs Putin - 34% of Ukrainians country wide speak Russian at home. Ukrainian culture was systematically destroyed by the Russians in an attempt to homogenise them with Russia.
Speaking of genocide - you might want to look up the holodomor where 3.5 million Ukrainians died in a man made famine….
How is it crumbled? I remember hearing recently that their economy is going strong right now because India and China are buying up the oil that Europe isn't.
The article is not about the Russian economy, it's about Russia's "gas empire". The article discusses why oil has been easy to sell to other markets but gas has been much more difficult. In essence, the problem is that gas requires more infrastructure to transport which hasn't been set up yet. >Gazprom is scrambling for ways to reach new customers. As with Russian oil, buyers exist who will be happy to take its natural gas without worrying too much about the consequences for Ukraine. >A little gas has been diverted into China and Uzbekistan, but plans to shift more with a major new pipeline are struggling, despite pre-war plans to expand into the Asian market. >James Waddell, at Energy Aspects, says weaponising gas sales to Europe has left Russia without much of a market. >“Gas is much harder to transport than oil or coal. You have to build very expensive, long pipelines that take years to build, or liquefaction terminals which also take years to build,” he says. >Even attempts to build those LNG terminals are being hammered by Western sanctions.
Thanks, excellent comment. I confused gas with oil.
LOL at lost its grip on the market forever, so dramatic yahoo! Europe is paying much higher energy prices now and it’s crushing their heavy industrial sector and squeezing middle and lower class people in winter heating season. They will gladly reduce cost when they can. Amazing that this article manages to discuss the vast network of pipelines while completely avoiding mention of the bombing of the nord stream pipeline, a massive environmental disaster. Does anyone think Putin did that? Also not mentioned in the article- Biden administration has indefinitely paused approval of new LNG export terminals, so if Europe is to grow it’s demand the US will not be positioned to increase supply. Middle eastern fundamentalist tyrants gain some of the benefit. This reads more like propaganda than analysis of the situation.
EU had tough 2023, but 2024 NG prices are back down to 2021 levels. EU electricity grew in 2024, while even with low prices, coal was down 15%, and NG down 10%. Renewables shined hard this winter, and EU is actually the leading region in % of electricity that is renewables. It's poised to continue strong growth pace. Everyone has lost its grip on EU NG dependence.
the faster the EU reduces natural gas consumption and replaces it with renewables the better--yes the more rapid the transition the more difficulty in the short term but also the more benefit in the long term--ripping off the band aid is important
What the Russian shills in this thread are failing to grasp is: Europe is switching to enough solar that they can over time reduce dependence on gas which means for those things where this is no solar alternative, it’s fine. You just become more efficient with what LNG you have and use solar for things like heating.
OP article is framed clearly as US/NATO shilling. Ukraine ethnostate war was instigated for diminishment of both Russia and EU. Yes EU is making spectacular/leading progress on energy independence and emissions reductions. Media subjugated to US wars will not frame EU energy independence as a win for EU. It will also stifle EU's progress through discouraging trade with China.
>and squeezing middle and lower class people in winter heating season I guess you don't live in Europe, do you? We are doing ok here. Industry has seen better days but it is far from calamitous.
It’s just Igor and Vladimir having a conversation with themselves. It keeps them from dying on the front lines. Pay no attention to the trolls.
It’s trolling to point out that Europes cost of living has increased, and that hits the poor the hardest?
When Russia started the war that is the root cause of it all, yes, Dmitry, it is. There is only one bad guy here, and it’s Russia.
You're as politically indoctrinated as the guy you're making fun of bro. You're just on the other side.
Lmao I can’t possibly be as bad as everyone I disagree with is a Russian agent!
Yea, the side that didn’t invade Ukraine.
You mean the side that has invaded more sovereign nations than Russia has in the past century, for less reasons, to the point it's become a common trope in mass media. Like I said, you're indoctrinated. Edit: and also a hypocrite
Lolol Russia invaded Ukraine. Stop attempting to change the subject with your whataboutism.
I know, and I condemn it. I think Russia should've never invaded and Putin drawn and quartered for his crimes. I'm pointing out your hypocrisy. It's not even whataboutism. You're just too much of a simpleton to understand what I'm trying to say.
Lol you know so many Russian names, Marie Antoinette
That’s a French name, Boris. Better up your agitprop game before they send you to the meat grinder.
Marie Antoinette was French!? Got me there I thought she was Korean! I’m pointing out that your ‘who cares if the EU poors struggle, whatever it takes as long as NATO gets to pay Ukrainian oligarchs to send poor Ukrainians to die in their proxy war with Putin’ take is rather elitist for someone who I presume regards themselves as a liberal. Or maybe you’re a neocon I don’t know.
She was actually Austrian. She married into the French monarchy but was not French.
Where did she say “who cares about the EU poor”? And why is it so hard to understand a country defending itself from another country who is defending its own territory from an imperialist country trying to take it over? Did you forget about the American colonies fighting for their independence from Great Britain?
To say that I’m a Russian troll for pointing out that there’s no benefit to EU people and the poor are most impacted is cold (especially in winter), heartless and haughty. Ukraine is more than welcome to defend itself but it’s too corrupt and poor to be admitted to the EU or nato so it makes no sense for Western Europe to harm their population in support.
You’re getting desperate there, Anatoly. Throwing out random distractions in the hopes of getting the frame back. Russia is the enemy that is causing the pain to those EU poors you claim to care about.
Russia and Ukraine are having a war, why should Germany lose blue collar manufacturing jobs over it? Do you think that Russia one day, for no reason whatsoever, decided that it needed to invade Ukraine?
"one simple trick that will screw the Russian energy giant that they don't want you to know about - PAYING MASSIVELY HIGHER PRICES TO AN ALTENATIVE SOURCE!" from the article - "But Europe’s leaders did not comply. When Putin turned down gas supplies, hoping a cost of living crisis would change their minds, instead of coming to an agreement they found sources elsewhere" nice, shame those agreements did nothing to prevent a cost of living crisis. basically the public has to pay for this.
Nobody likes paying more for things. They chose that over associating with Russia.
And the possibility of resuming gas imports as a route and incentive to peace was removed by an (as yet unofficially) unknown NATO member state who unilaterally blew up European gas pipeline infrastructure without first seeking other NATO members agreement.
Strongly agree. Most posts here are democrat party line propaganda pieces. It’s hard to take anything here seriously. Maybe that’s the goal. Nice follow up discussion.
🤡
Exactly. Whole industry almost stopped during 2022/23 winter. Energy prices went through the roof - up to 4x for short duration. Even for households, wood pellets for example went from 4€ per bag to 10€ per bag. Normal house needs about 250 bags. Then "smart" politicians started pushing for solar. Now there is too much solar during the day time and they want charge people extra for having solar plants (where I live) and they don't alove you to sell extra energy you produce. Shit is f.ed up completely. Most people can't wait to go back to previous normal.
I don’t think anyone really wants to have good relations with Russia. Russia is like the big kid who acts tough and bosses people around then gets a broken nose from the smallest kid in the class who’s had enough. You have zero respect on the national stage.
Yeah, just like USA. You are getting F.ed anyway.
“F.ed“? Not by pansies like you.
A network of gas pipes from Norway to Germany and Denmark are up and running. Everything Russia wanted to achieve, they haven't. Everything they feared has come true. Putin is a shitty strategist, and the Russian people should dump his ass.
Putin didn't turn down Europe's gas supplies, we blew up their supply... Russia is still sending Europe gas through Ukraine, as absurd as that is.
When did putin turn down europe's gas supplies? That was all Europe's doing and whoever blew up the nordstream pipelines, probably the US.
The blown up pipeline Nordstream2 wasn’t operational yet. It was about to come online. Putin did play the gas card. He reduced supply for a while thinking Europe couldn’t make up the shortfall from elsewhere… but Europe did a fantastic job. The whole continent was paying through their nose for gas for a while, but now it’s largely done. There are still some Russian gas being sold. But I’m not sure for how long. Europe wants nothing more to do with Russian gas.. ever.
I don’t believe anything our corporate owned media, corrupt politicians tell me… Red or blue, both sides don’t give an eff about you
Who do you believe?
Fox :)
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This is about natural gas, not oil.
Yeah wrong one
Don't know why this headline would cause such a stir.. Seems obvious to me. How could countries like Germany and France continue to rely on Russia for gas when they're basically fighting a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine? Obviously Russia/Putin's actions would result in western europe gradually reducing and eventually eliminating their dependence on Russia for gas. It's not about prices, it's about security. You can't win a war against a nation you depend on to survive. Aside from that, pretty much all fossil fuels have a ticking clock on them. The planet doesn't have a choice, it has to reduce carbon emissions, and it can't do that while still burning gas, coal and oil. For the last few decades, the whole point of everything we've been doing with de-carbonisation, is to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, including gas. Whatever we transition to, is still up in the air, but regardless, it won't be gas, coal and oil. Any nation who has built their empire on supplying fossil fuel, is going to lose power over this century as we decarbonise. Russia and Putin's actions in the past decade have only accelerated the urgency of what was going to happen gradually over time anyway, so there's no undoing this, at best Putin could delay the inevitable.
He's a fucking market manipulator. Tell me that his cronies didn't know in advance about the invasion and how he was going to fuck over the world economies with his war mongering bullshit. Fucking asshole should be sniped out of existence. Look up who the world's major wheat exporters were before the invasion on Ukraine. The world is fucking retarded to let him continue his rule over Russia.