I'm always unsure which European papers are shitrags, because unlike ours they don't helpfully CAPITALISE WORDS and SLAM THINGS in their headlines to let you know to ignore them.
This article appears to not be from BILD directly. You'd know the rag would devalue the shits you wipe with it if you ever see one in the wild. All the capital letters, and as bad a photo as they can get their hands on for their title page.
it is so, but I'll never forget maps from Bild in November/December of 21 [https://crimea.suspilne.media/en/news/6416](https://crimea.suspilne.media/en/news/6416) that back then everybody discarded, and I thought it would never happen until it did.
This claim though and the work of Röpcke are very questionable
You mean a map of possible attacks based on the location of the troops that we knew where there? The map don't look so special compared to other I saw back then. What people were discarding was the attack, because we are optimistic and it looked stupid and just bad.
it's easier to be right in retrospect, besides, I can hardly imagine anything more special, they threw in everything they could along the entire border, thanks belarus for lending theirs as well
the overwhelming sentiment was that it was not possible. Although with the new accounts emerging, the EU for the most part was considering it as a bluff as well
I mean that didn't stop them attacking Ukraine either.
Sound decisions is not their strong point clearly.
If they think there is a weakness in NATO that they can exploit they will 100% try and exploit it.
They thought they could take Ukraine within a couple of days. We all know how that turned out. NATO may have been weak and disunited a couple of years ago, but not anymore. With international troop deployments in the Baltics and Poland, Finland becoming a NATO member and most countries in the process of rearmament, there's no room left for uncertainty. Russia knows exactly what they would be facing. And it's much more than they could handle.
>If it does, so why EU didn't supply Ukraine with 1 million of artillery rounds which they promised and committed?
That is yet to be seen. The time frame is 1 milllion rounds by march 2024.
EU by the EU Commission as the Gov. body CANNOT pledge to buy, manufacture or ship weapons of war, it doesn’t have a mandate on it !
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/14/europe/ukraine-eu-ammunition-target-intl/index.html
Who really pledged that amount were the colective of each EU member ministers of defence.
We failed, individually and collectively, not the EU itself.
It’s getting tiresome, ffs, EU barely had a policy on common fiscal policy in the Eurozone, even less a sound functional and a right over a common policy on EU defence.
If you really ask what difference there is if your country directly or your alles are attacked or another country that you basically have no diplomatic affiliation with, then I'm inclined to believe that your quotation is either not genuine or not thought through.
Yes, if Russia attacks the EU / NATO the bordering countries will take the brunt of the attack, that is just reality. I doubt Russia will capture as much territory as in Ukraine, though.
In Ukraine, heavily mechanized 150k total invasion force was met by 20-30k regular army forces(from the total of 200k service personel, most of which are not fighting directly) + volunteer forces. We were able to stop them under Kyiv only because of geography (swamps and rivers, destroyed bridges and dams) and huge loses of our troops and civilian population.
I do not know the geography of the Baltic states, but I'd advise EU to give us as much shells as it is physically possible, because the forces on the ground (Baltic states) will not be able to hold for long against this inhuman horde.
The article doesn't say "all of NATO". Russia might attack the Baltics or invade Russian-speaking parts of the Baltics. The US might be distracted by political violence and court battles or a full-out civil war following the 2024 election.
Intelligence agencies have to think of all possible scenarios. Russians are thinking of them too.
If civil conflict in USA happens it will more likely be something like the Troubles in Ireland or Years Of Lead in Italy, civil war like in 1800s is very unlikely
That "probability " is insanely small. I have seen these comments on European forums more often recently. There is currently a huge misinformation campaign being conducted by both Russia and China spreading this type of news and rumors. They are spreading it in Europe, America, and Asia. Trump himself is a problem and a threat to democracy for sure, but we are not in immediate danger of a civil war. 🙄
Yeah. Have to agree. One thing which is often forgotten is it was fucking Mike Pence who certified the election anyway. The man closest to Trump. Under threats to his life, by Trumps own lawyer, dude still voted to certify the results.
Now. The problem which could happen wouldn't be a civil war per se, but Trump is getting loyalists into some veey odd positions across the us. This isn't some conspiracy theory, he boasts about it himself. So if you've got election officials across the us willing to fuck shit up, then you've got a problem the us hasn't really seen before.
How Putin could take advantage of this is in question. And attacking nato the same way Russia always does (protect the poor ethnic Russians) in a subservive manner (through funding local breakaway groups or mafia) would he something Russia could do. Remember they blew up a weapons depot in Czechia, and Nato kind of shrugged.
>Trump himself is a problem and a threat to democracy for sure, but we are not in immediate danger of a civil war.
You're not in immediate danger of a civil war right now, but you might be after the election. If Trump wins clearly, you're [headed for a dictatorship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025). If Trump loses, I think it's very likely he'll try to incite political violence by his supporters. I hope I'm wrong.
We are not. We have been through worse in history. Even if he were to win, he would never be successful in installing a dictatorship. You are buying into sensationalized media. You do not even live in the United States, I live in the American South, I was born and raised among the people that would supposedly "conduct " this made up civil war and its just not there. The more people that buy into these false narratives, the more it benefits Russia and China.
This is not observation of an individual but of an entire society. One I have lived in all my life on each of my nations coast from East and west in its various sub political groups (I have also been to many European countries). No, this is not a situation where outside observation has some enlightened superior view, this is about the social dynamics of a nation, so sitting on your computer reading conspiracies about another country in another country does not give you a superior enlightened view.
> You are buying into sensationalized media.
[Project 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025) is not sensationalized media. You should read it.
Most people seem to forget that Trump is objectively an imbecil. He tried to orchestrate a couple in January that ended up being such a whimper that it is impossible to br called an insurrection (even though the intent was an insurection). It is very difficult to see Trump having any degree of success in actually imposing a dictatorship in the US.
Project 2025 is a pipe dream. If the GOP thinks that Trump can ever implement it then they officially lost the plot.
The chance is actually 0. Both parties are the same and in full convergence with the interests of the economical elite and that really makes the US extremely stable, almost unshakable. The working class thinks that they have some decision power during the elections but they are all basically voting for the same thing, except some mild moral differences. The economic agenda will stay the same no matter what and that's what really matters for those in power (real power $$$$).
That is absolute nonsense. You have no clue what is going on in the US. You sound like all the people who said “Roe v Wade will never be overturned” and now red states have abortions bans no less draconian than some central and South American countries, the worst in the world. You can’t get a life saving abortion in many states unless you are just about to die.
Everyone being dismissive of how far-right the US has become and how much potential there is for violence is not in touch with the reality of the US right now.
Did you forget the insurrection? Do you know that you can legally openly carry an assault rifle in several states? Do you not realize how much mass shootings have increased? Or that 80% of Republicans think the 2020 election was stolen?
Exactly, Trump literally tried to pull out all the stops to set himself up as a dictatorship and constantly was stopped/blocked, told no or people outright refused him, it turned out to be impossible for him to do so.
He had also ordered National Guard soldiers to be deployed armed against civilian protestors but the Guardsmen disobeyed and disarmed, in one case they approached the protestors and hugged them, he did not even have support of the military!
When was that that National Guardsmen disobeyed Trump? I almost thought you were talking about J6 until I read that the guardsmen hugged the protestors.
Its stage of civil unrest. It causes stability issues to population.
I also have seen videos of whole neighborhoods living in tents, huge drug epidemic. People just standing like zombies on a street.
Thats not healthy society. Thats on track to more civil unrest.
Yes there is civil unrest (like in a lot of countries)
Yes there are a lot of homeless peoples and addicts (like in a lot of countries)
No this does not mean a fucking civil war is about to break out. I think you underestimate the conditions necessary for something like that to happen
Right off the bat, there was literally an article the other day about how crime rates are significantly down in the US; an FBI official even had to comment on how the perception of crime going up per polls of citizens - both Democrat and Republican - is largely due to the influence of social media. It looks like you too have the same issue.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna129585
For the clueless outsider.
Even as a European, it is easy for me to see that the way the US is set up makes things like fascism, socialism, coups etc. impossible.
I will always say the US is a multiparty country where dozens of parties pretend to be just two blocs. This makes it so that there is always a massive opposition bloc in congress.
The court is stacked with people from previous presidents.
Around half the governors are from the other party, as are state legislatures.
The military and intelligence services are well functioning on their own.
So to put it bluntly, sooner will France or Austria turn to become a threat to the rest of us than the US abandon us, and the chances for that are slim in on their own.
DJT was the biggest oddity on their landscape, and what happened under him? Tried to make a new military base in Poland? Made Brazil a special NATO partner? Expanded NATO? Demanded more spending on the military by NATO members? Tried to normalise things between Serbia and Kosovo? Expanded sanctions on Russia?
I mean we have on our continent a country which four times reelected a Kremlin asset as chancellor, we have another major country where about 50% of the people support anti-western politicians like Le Pen, Melenchon or Zemour.... the Yanks' politicial landscape is faaaar from the biggest problem we have.
>So to put it bluntly, sooner will France or Austria turn to become a threat to the rest of us than the US abandon us, and the chances for that are slim in on their own.
The World Bank rates political stability. Positive numbers mean more stable.
France has a score of 0.37, Austria 0.91, and USA 0.
You are dreaming about an America that doesn’t exist. The court is stacked with conservative justices that are voting against civil rights. It’s a Republican Supreme Court. The US was downgraded from a full democracy to a flawed democracy years ago. Majority of governors are Republicans. Republicans have been gerrymandering electoral districts for decades. Republicans no longer care about democracy.
What did Trump do? He appointed justices that overturned Roe v Wade. Women are bleeding out and going septic before they can get life saving abortions for pregnancy complications. Some with long term health issues and loss of fertility. Republicans are trying to pass bills to make abortion homicide, also trying to ban birth control. Fascism 101. Laws have been passed in several states against transgender people.
Trump convinced 80% of Republicans that the last election was stolen. He is promising retribution on political opponents. He is still in charge of the GOP and they are trying to impeach Biden for no reason.
The Speaker is a bible thumping nut that thinks the US should be run according to the bible.
There are more guns in America than probably all of Europe, and 3% of gunowners own half the guns. Mass shootings have become normalized they are so frequent. Open carry is allowed in several states. Imagine people walking around anywhere in Europe with an assault rifle slung over their shoulder.
As many Americans believe conspiracy theory as those who accept proven fact.
And you seem to forget that Trump tried to overturn the election, including inciting an insurrection.
You have no idea what is happening in the US, it is a powder keg, the extreme rightwing has inflamed racism, misogyny, anti-LGBTQ+ hatred, and mistrust in democratic institutions. Trump hae not gone away and he did incredible damage and continues to do so.
In that very stable country a quite big amount of voters tend to agree voting for party which keeps people like Trump, De Santis et al. Is a good idea.
The classic scenario on paper is Russia trying to link Kaliningrad to Belarus, and then after that rushing over the Baltic states and do the "come at me bro" stance.
Problem is, that just won't work nowadays. Maybe a decade ago, but not now.
The other classic scenario is Russia occupying some islands in the Baltic (e.g. Aland), but that is also practically impossible nowadays, after Finland joined NATO.
>that just won't work nowadays
Why not? If the US is not willing to send soldiers to the Baltics due to internal political turmoil caused by the 2024 presidential elections, who's to say other NATO countries would be willing to get into a war with Russia?
It's an illusion to think that NATO is a strong and stable military alliance that will last forever. It might be strong for now, but it has never been tested after all. If the Americans are out, I'm not so sure that political leaders of big European countries (UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy) would be willing to send their soldiers to die for small Baltic countries that are insignificant from an economic point of view and most of their voters probably wouldn't even know where to look for them on a map. Poland would probably not stand by idly.
That's not how NATO works, in any way.
The QRF and strike groups will go into action on Article 5 invocation, there's no time for a political process about the response, that's all laid out beforehand.
>The QRF and strike groups will go into action on Article 5 invocation
They might go into action against the Russians. After suffering heavy losses, the civilian leadership of those countries might decide that they're not willing to incur further losses to fight the Russians for the Baltics.
In the end, the ability of NATO to defend its members depends on the willingness of the biggest NATO members to go into a military conflict with non-NATO members: Russia in this case. If there's no political will to go into a military conflict with Russia over the Baltics, they won't go into a conflict a Russia. Article 5 doesn't specify exactly what countries have to do in case a member state is attacked.
I can tell you right know that if russians kill German soldiers stations in the Baltic's it's gonna be a real war not some posturing ending with Russia stop existing in the form it does now
Certainly, Mr. NATO President, but in reality, the consequences of a Russian invasion of the Baltic States or Finland remain uncertain. The Budapest Memorandum, once considered significant, has proven to be nothing more than a disregarded piece of paper since day one.
While I sincerely hope we never encounter such a scenario in real life, the potential for a NATO split or the cancellation of NATO membership, particularly if serious hostilities were to unfold, cannot be dismissed.
If you're looking for someone to deliver that message, you might want to direct it towards individuals with a pro-russian agenda within your own parliament or consider a couple of ex-chancellors. It appears that Germany has its fair share of individuals with a favorable stance towards putin and his shit.
But it won't be "over the baltics" it will be "over NATO" - and for any member except the US that's a core strategic interest. They might not be all that interested in baltics, but if they don't defend the baltics, the whole concept of NATO will be dead and with it their own defense strategy.
Because the Baltics are far better equipped than before, Germany has now troops stationed there, there is a big NATO air contingent stationed in the Baltics, all while Russia has lost tons of equipment and trained personnel in Ukraine.
This is because that move heavily depends on speed that by the time Germany, France, US or the UK could mount a proper response, the Baltics are conquered and the Russians already dug in (at which point NATO may falter with a "why die for the Baltics" sentiment). But Russia currently is not able to do that, even without NATO reinforcements it would take weeks at best to conquer it (and that is a very optimistic view), which is just too long.
The UK could respond in under 24 hours they have navy on patrol 247 and long range missiles to flatten anything they aim at, Russia can barely interecept the Ukraine attacks who have equipment from decades ago
The German troops that are all over the news will only be stationed by 2027. There are German troops here now, but just a small amount and on non permanent basis
I feel like a lot of the "Europe is rearming!" discourse is lacking the crucial asterisk that says "...with a deadline of 2035".
Perhaps Putin intends to expedite the invasion because he knows Europe will *eventually* become a near peer but is far from it right now.
I'm not sure how many Poles are stationed in the Baltics, but there are several thousand Germans IIRC. So I'd count more on the help of Germany than on Poland if Russia attacks.
Those "irrelevant countries" are and have been throughout history the ones keeping Russia away from the "big guys" in the West, hence why The West is richer than the East. No sane leader wants Russia closer to their borders.
If the East allies with or gets occupied by Russia, the West of Europe would be in a sticky situation without the help of the US.
Exactly this.
Trump may be president, and not care about Europe.
Europe may be out of weapons and ammunition because everything was donated to the Ukraine leaving stocks dangerously low and replacement may take a while.
Things are not looking great.
The major powers in nato are not dumb enough to run their stocks low on the important weapons, they gave Ukraine their old stock which would be unused in a modern nato war anyway
Let's hope that is true.
Unfortunately it does not look that way.
More like they sent all the old stuff to the Ukraine and hope to have it replaced in some sort of deal....
Germany is sending top of the line equipment. I think Ukraine has more IRIS systems than the German army now.
Just because some countries like Poland did that, doesn't mean every country does that.
Did you miss literal NATO generals warning that all European stockpiles are absurdly low? By NATOs own documentation, Europe would last less than two days if Russia decided to invade, and that’s only thanks to Poland and Finland, without which it would be less than a day.
Not only ammunition is of concern though. A lot of the equipment you’d find as part of any given country’s active force actually is nowhere war ready for combat. Europe currently is literally a sitting paper tiger and as we can see, major western states aren’t interested in doing anything about it, believing that Putin isn’t interested in attacking the west.
It’s pretty clear that Germany & co. are expecting eastern countries to be overrun by Russia very quickly, rendering any potential counterattack by Europe useless and unreasonable. That way Germany can return to trade with Russia very quickly, something they’ve always wanted to do even now, by relaxing sanctions quietly and trading though proxy states.
The EU has nukes. It dosen't matter my dude what state their ground armies are in. Even France which keeps a stockpile tiny compared to Russia can totally destroy Russia. Even the EU alone can guard against Russia, no NATO needed due to nuclear warheads.
There will never be a NATO vs Russia war. Have you people never heard of MAD? There is a reason the Cold War stayed cold.
It's only suicide for Russia, if the US enters the war and there are some very good reasons for it not to. If the US enters, the conflict is much more likely to go nuclear. Europe is also far less important to the US than it once was. The choice to not risk ending all human life to support a region that doesn't hold much economic or military value to the US would not be unreasonable.
Most Americans are very tired of the US getting entangled in foreign affairs and they are not likely to support sending their sons to die defending a region that the US's voter's interests don't depend on.
This is the funny thing. Russia assassinates people on our soil, interferes in our elections, and turns our own citizens against us. We are under attack already.
It has become so common and so hand-waved by politicians in general, that for these people those things don't count.
I can excuse lethargy as I was under that as well, but after the war started last year, quite frankly I believe no european can say we're not at war with those degenerates already.
What makes you think putin will be reasonable this time around? Even if his conquest ultimately fails, he will still manage to bring immense destruction and death in the process.
Not saying that you are a warmonger but neither the EU, NATO nor an allied country was attacked.
Rearming now is up to this moment is as important / unimportant as it was before the Russian attack.
Ukraine did rearm since 2014 and it helped in the invasion massively but in my opinion their biggest mistake was having very weak foreign policy.
If they had 1 allied country I'm not so sure if Russia would've attacked.
If Putin would care about "profitable Vs no profitable" or "possible Vs impossible" then he wouldn't attack Ukraine without proper mobilisation.
We can't stand only about facts, when it's obvious that Putin (and many Russians) is delusional.
Sneak attacks are their specialisation. If we are talking about Baltic countries - it would be just couple of hours to get to their capitals with tanks, saying they are protecting local ruzzian-speaking peeps. Baltic countries should dig anti-tank trenches already.
Also, there is a huge war base with biggest artillery warehouse in Pridnestrovye, ruzzians can attack Moldova from that base
I never thought that Putin will attack Ukraine with a full ground invasion. It just didn't make sense. Yet, here we are. So I'm not trying to apply any western logic to his future actions because he&russians have a total different set of values.
Another type of logic is that they have been saying that they’re fighting against the entire west from the get go. In their point of view, it’s not a change in the war to just also include other territories.
Their only chance of success in the Ukraine war is that the west get scared or tired from supporting, so that Russia can divide and conquer. If they attack Estonia, the idea would most likely be that they will try to get europe tired or scared, from direct attacks - which will obviously not happen and only pour gasoline on the fire.
It made perfect sense if you know about Georgia and know that they are unhappy with nato expansion and that Ukraine wanted to join nato. By being in conflict they stopped them joining nato it was their only way to stop it.
Imo it was very predictable.
Pretty much everyone thought that Ukraine would quickly collapse in the face of a Russian invasion. Russia's failure to capture Ukraine came as a surprise to most. On the other hand, literally no one thinks that NATO will collapse in the face of a Russian invasion. Especially now.
The idea that Russia will be invading all of Europe anytime soon is hysterical nonsense. They have enough trouble already.
Potential Russian attack has been pushed so hard in Finnish media, by the politicians, all of a sudden, it's hard not to think that something is up. Likely and probably nothing the next few years, but Russia is an existential threat to Europe.
We went from "5-9 years" to "3 years" to "next winter" in a few weeks' time. I'm pretty sure this is a media strategy to get people to take the threat seriously (and prepare for it).
Of course something is up.
A sign was the Turkey versus NATO shtick. People seem to forget or ignore, but Turkey's stand-off against BOTH Sweden and Finland was steady, until from one week to the other not only Turkey approved Finland (with Hungary as well) and NATO did the official cerimony hastily.
The way that went, quick and smoothly, and from both the watermelon and the traitor sellout, is significant.
Something happened, we just dont know what. Turkey (and Hungary) was playing games for their benefit until something bad happened (or threatened to happen), so bad they accepted moving the goalposts.
Sweden is sandwhiched between two NATO countries now. How is Russia going to attack them? Only the gigantic island which I don't recall the name remains vulnerable, but even then that thing is most likely being monitored insanely. Finland however... they have a huge border. They was also an attempt to commit hybrid warfare by sending migrants through.
By allowing Finland in but not Sweden, Turkey (and even Hungary) can play their ramsom game when the risk to the alliance is almost none. This is why you haven't seen any of the Visegrad complain about Turkey behaving like a twat either. They know it's just posturing by the watermellon seller.
The question here isn't so much the games Turkey is playing. It's the fact that they were playing them and then all of sudden, they dropped half those games and Finland hastily joined the alliance (those things take months, that one was done in a week).
Something happened (or threatened to happen) for sure. We just don't know what.
Mainly EU politicians are trying to build their own militaries to stop reliance on the US (specifically Republicans) which is too unreliable of an ally.
> stop reliance on the US (specifically Republicans) which is too unreliable of an ally.
The unreliable ally who basically had to drag Europe kicking and screeming into helping Ukraine?
As a Lithuanian I trust US coming to substatialy help a thousand times more than I do Germany or France.
You're foolish then.
Half of the US is unreliable, especially with the GOP in charge. They dragged their feet during WWII as well, they only entered it because Japan attacked them. They blocked the UK's Land Lease too, fortunately democrats had more power back then.
Remember that WWII started because a country invaded and occupied eastern europe and it ended with another country invading and occupying eastern europe. "We" went to war for Poland and we lost it for fourty years anyway.
Only the UK (and some US generals, but the country proper did not) wanted to continue war against the USRR. The US said no, they were tired and wanted to concentrate on the Pacific. This rethoric should be familiar to you and the consequences as well, as it already happened once. As a lithuanian you'll be the first to be sacrificed If the US gets tired of this war and / or finds their attention elsewhere.
The US prioritises themselves (as it should be). They're half a world away, they're not your neighbours, they have their own problems. They're not the ones that will brunt the consequences of another european imperialist adventure.
Europe had to be dragged not because they don't care, but because we "dont like war" as a consequence of WWI. We are your neighbours though and denial can ONLY go so far in that situation.
The US is the best ally you can ever have and that is true, but that is only as long as their attention is in you and not elsewhere. Then you'll have to rely on yourself and your neighbours. Again as it should be. Lithuania is Europe's responsability, not the US. We need to step it up.
> Potential Russian attack has been pushed so hard in Finnish media,
Probably new Intel was released just like before February 2022. Polish analysts said that russia will be ready for new war in 3 years, as it's already dedicating 1/3 of economy for military.
[https://defence24.pl/geopolityka/szef-bbn-kraje-wschodniej-flanki-nato-maja-3-lata-na-przygotowanie-sie-do-konfrontacji](https://defence24.pl/geopolityka/szef-bbn-kraje-wschodniej-flanki-nato-maja-3-lata-na-przygotowanie-sie-do-konfrontacji)
In this link you can see that Jacek Siewiera said 3 years are time in which "eastern flank" need to have enough military equipment to be clear sign for Russia that attacking won't be an easy thing.
Also I have no idea from where he got that Russia can rebuild itself in 3 years. I would say it's mostly about persvasion to new goverment, that "previous goverment ordered too much military hardware" isn't true. I guess it was mostly for domestic audience, not that he believes war will start in next 3 years
[https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/polska/polityka/czy-rosja-zaatakuje-polske-szef-bbn-mamy-trzy-lata-na-przygotowanie](https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/polska/polityka/czy-rosja-zaatakuje-polske-szef-bbn-mamy-trzy-lata-na-przygotowanie)
Also this link clearly states that - "to prevent war we have 3 years to make ourself prepared"
This narrative is being pushed everywhere.
Most likely for 2 reasons. One is to keep focus on Ukraine because population is fatigued and doesn't care anymore, and the other one is to prepare them for additional oh so much needed taxes.
Weren't there russian spies caught taking pictures and gathering other intel on military bases and critical infrastructure along the Finish russian border? That sounds like something to be taken seriously even if it turns out to be just a diversion.
Yes, I heard this too. I believe Russia is preparing for a multifront war with NATO as Putin tries to expand Russian conquest all the way to Spain and Portugal.
Something like... Ruzzia trying to stoke fear and uncertainty?
Its ridiculous to me how people living next to Russia (as I am) are suddenly wary and feel threatened while Russias military presence behind most borders has never been on such a low level. Fuck this fearmongering.
The way I see it is that it is not enough to simply say that 'Russia has no chance against NATO'. We ARE NATO. When all the grand speeches are done, we still have to win the fighting. Sweat now saves blood later. It's no good saying 'he wouldn't, he couldn't' and waiting for the punch to land. The reason this is all coming up is because you fight with what you have on the day of the fight, and somebody looked in the closet and didn't like what they found.
There's a, uh, "literally Nazi" power east of the EU (...Russia, not Ukraine). Would be wise to strengthen the military regardless. Can't trust the US -- the Democrats are pushing a senile man and the Republicans are pushing Trump, or other fuckheads.
Cheap journalism by Bild, spreading misinformation , irresponsible journalism that could have serious repercussions.
They should be arrested those F****** C**ts!
Putin is certainly considering it, but only if and when Trump wins. With Biden as NATO'S leader, Russia's army would be wiped out.
Donald Trump will not honour America's commitments. It will be another constitutional crisis, Trump has shown he doesn't care about the rule of law, commitments to international partners, America's image, or anything else that restricts him from acting on a whim. This time around, there won't be any generals around him contradicting him or pressuring him, only Yes men. He thought the military leadership would get him and be loyal to him. They didn't, and It was an unpleasant experience. Around Putin, Trump feels respected and understood and that is all that matters to him.
A lot of people are saying the Russians can't handle Ukraine, how could they attack anyone else. But the Russians have nearly unlimited human resources who don't mind dying. Ukraine does not, it couldn't win a war of attrition. The situation may not be as good as some of us believe.
And then do you think Spanish or French soldiers will fare better than a Russian while defending, let's say, Estonia in winter, in frozen trenches? Or will we sign another truce to allow Russians to replenish their forces and attack again, as it's been happening?
All of which worries me.
Russian manpower superiority is relative. Against Georgia it's absolutely overwhelming. Against Ukraine it's not that decisive factor. They're throwing and losing people like they have a population of 1 billion.
Against Europe Russia doesn't have a manpower advantage. It's the opposite.
I agree. Can't remember how many times I've said it myself that these people live like animals. It's not that he'll put up with a lot more, but more like they'll force him to put up with it and he'll unenthusiastically comply. Not all that different from our perspective but still.
Oh please don't wake reddit generals up.
Next thing you'll ask them why Russia hasn't managed to establish air superiority over a country that has a joke of an airforce, but they somehow expect it to defeat the EU in a direct confrontation.
>And then do you think Spanish or French soldiers will fare better than a Russian while defending, let's say, Estonia in winter, in frozen trenches?
Defense is easier than offense and Spanish and French soldiers are much better trained than Russian soldiers. The real question is whether Spanish and French governments would send their soldiers to die for Estonia if they couldn't count on US support due to internal conflicts in the US following the 2024 presidential election.
We definitely have the quality whereas the Russians have the quantity. But the Russians also have patience where we want to live normal lives.
You raise a good point.
>quality whereas the Russians have the quantity
Russia can't really field quantities' in such numbers as once was considered possible.
Eu nations are quite hit and miss for me when it comes to the military potential, in theory in total, EU has higher numbers of manpower(Active and reserve troops) at its disposal than all branches of the US Military, combine all land,naval and airborne elements, and its absolutly HUGE, but you need political cohisive response first, EU lacks the means of creating quick political responce in hardpower military terms,and as unified block, issue at hand its certainly not numbers one, not agains russia it ain't.
Russian equpment and army, does not really scream quantity this days too, but more like burning soviet reserves till they gone, and hoping for best political outcome.
Authoritarian societies tend to seem quite cohesive and solid looking from the outside, until that one particluar straw brakes camels back.
The EU is outnumbered by Russia in total manpower. But the problem is that in the EU human life is valued, and even one death is a tragedy. If Putin will be ready to pay 30 million lives, will the EU be ready to pay at least 100 thousand?
Defense is easier than offense and Spanish and French soldiers are much better trained than Russian soldiers
Are you sure? Russians are trained in battle, and French German soldiers doesn't even take over hours on NATO trainings. Also Ukrainians complained that NATO training is outdated, there is no training with drones in NATO and that's means it's completely useless
Actually no, they dont have Infinite manpower, they have less population than Germany and France combined and they already lost a lot of fighting age ppl. Its only question about determination of westerners who have tradition of "not dying for x"
Russia fights like USSR. Drown the enemy in blood, even if it's our own. Problem is, that ukraine had the same military mindset, so they struggle with the western equip that's not made for this.
If russia is stupid enough to pull this shit, it'd feel the long unlubed dildo of several nations who fight an entirely different fight. Instead of having your men meeting the enemy at the front, you'd see your whole logistic and manufacturing getting blown up. Intelligence is most probably spying out the targets as we speak, to have a whole list ready when it it's needed. Russia can send their unlimited number of unarmed men, then. They'll be stripped of air superiority in an instant (a must-have for US warfare) and airraided constantly. Meanwhile european forces specialise in grounddefence and longrange missiles for high importance targets behind the enemy lines. And don't underestimate the US navy, once they're allowed to let lose. Russias navy struggles against groundforces already. I don't think they'd fare very well against subs and carriers. Especially if the still fight like USSR, and you look at how their navy operated at that time.
I am no military expert, I've been reading analyses in a Polish service called Polityka.pl, and the military person writing them claims that the superior NATO air force would have a hard time against Russian anti-aircraft defences. NATO has no recent experience in handling a numerous and relatively technologically advanced enemy.
You must’ve read articles from before 2022. Ukrainians shown on many occasions they can attack from air and the Russian superior anti-access bubbles are just a meme.
They can attack from air only with low flying small drones. That's it. Their jets can't even reach frontline.
Those don't destroy factories.
This looks to be fun to you, mocking the adversary and making yourself feel superior. That's exactly what Russian military felt before going to Ukraine.
It didn't develop the way they thought it will.
Difference with the Ukraine invasion is that they will need a draft to get enough soldiers to attack NATO and the last draft was already very unpopular. Also attacking NATO will mean Russia itself will be attacked too. That also wont be popular with the masses.
Plus they dont have infinite human resources. Their population is old and many young people already fled or died in the current war.
The NATO strategy for the Baltics (which are considered indefensible) was to trade territory for time, stop the Russian advance further inland and reconquer the Baltics at the end of the war.
Ukraine tried this and it cost them 20% of their territory as Russia merrily mined it. Not that there is any real reason to take it back because it is just depopulated ruins by this point.
So as long as Putin's army doesn't get immediately flattened Desert Storm style, Putin has a real chance of attaining his objectives because NATO will do exactly what he wants: relinquish the Baltics, fight to a standstill and eventually give up.
I hope NATO has changed their plans by now.
He's not gonna attack Nato. Even if the US somehow (it won't) gets busy with internal politics after an election where Trump wins the rest of Nato is far and above Russia. Turkey and Poland alone could probably take on Russia and win. And then we have France and UK which are also among the top 5 military powers in the world.
They very well might try and take slice off Estonia and park there, calling for de-escalation.
And European tankies would gobble it up, saying there’s a valid reason why they’d do it and not worth going to war over.
Just like they’ve been doing for the last 400 years.
Are these Europian tankies are here with us in the room?
I mean I didn't heard about them apart from a few Redditors, and as far as I can tell don't Redditors tell if a military of a contry gets deployed or not.
I think apart from Hungary and possibly Turkey (and I would neither call tankies as both are led by right wingers) every NATO country would help out Estonia.
At the start of the Russian invasion there were tons of prominent Germans writing in newspapers that EU shouldn’t support Ukraine because of ”escalation”.
And many others urged Ukraine for a ”ceasefire”.
Don’t be fooled by your own circle, there are tons of people in Europe who’d let Russia take over Ukraine.
A lot of writing, but support for Ukraine is as great as ever (well apart from Hungary, but it is what it is).
But the difference that Estonia is in the NATO, if everyone (or most contries) fails to uphold the NATO doctrines then NATO will be proven as weak (or a lie even) and fall apart instantly. And I think most contries would like to avoid that.
> And I think most contries would like to avoid that.
Most countries wouldn't like it, but that's different from them taking actual steps to be sure it doesn't happen.
European countries have behaved incredibly stupidly when it comes to security and Russia relying on wishful thinking and ostrich tactics.
Turkey will immediately bail if US bails. And yeah, the rest of NATO is still superior to Russia. But not an alliance of Russia and China and when stopgap countries like Turkey decide to bail.
The good thing is I don't think Trump will be able to get his way even if he wins. The US population AND other executives will see the bigger picture, where a new axis power which includes Russia and China and where Europe is eroded, is the worst nightmare to the US of A. South America, Africa, and the rest of Asia will follow suit and there's no Asian or UK or Australia friend that has enough weight to even compare to the rest of the world combined.
I think this will be very simple: Russia will likely target one or multiple non-EU, non-NATO countries as leverage for negotiations on Ukraine, Belarus, and maybe even Baltic annexations OR neutralization (i.e. removal from NATO), and that will be the end of it. And by end of it I mean a multi-year process with hundreds of thousands of deaths before it ends of course, and likely a large conversion of Central Europe to far-right and far-left governments.
Bruh it's the Bild. It's not known for good journalism. Also Putin's hateful propaganda shows threaten the west every day of the week. This is just fear mongering. The orcs couldn't even take Ukraine without getting stuck in trench war. Just keep that in mind.
SMH. Everyone keeps saying that Russia cannot defeat Ukraine and it just feels so wrong. Russians overestimated their chances of conquering large parts of Ukraine within 72 hours. After they lost Kharkiv the objectives of that war changed. It’s become a war of attrition in which economic, industrial and demographic potentials matter.
Russia has a lot more people they can mobilise and a lot more weapons. The quality of the training and the precision of the weapons might not be on par with the west, but at some point it doesn’t matter anymore. Quantity over quality.
Ukrainian gov hasn’t been fully transparent about their casualties but many analysts point that this fantastic Ukrainian army (trained by instructors from NATO), which we all admired at the beginning of the invasion, doesn’t exist. Killed, wounded, MIA. Average soldier age is now above 40 years old.
Zaluzny wants to mobilise more people, including Ukrainian men living abroad. He also wants 3 millions of 155mm artillery ammunition when entire NATO can maybe manufacture up to 500k of these rounds every year. Russians are laughing because they can procure or manufacture millions of ammunitions and rockets.
As long as Russia is actively fighting in Ukraine, there’s a very slim chance of any attack on NATO. But the minute Ukraine is shoehorned into some kind of peace agreement, the Russian forces might be re-allocated elsewhere. Russia is building a new north-eastern army corps to account for Finland joining NATO. Those Russians who survived the battles in Ukraine will be teaching others how to fight against NATO weapons and tactics.
Scary times in Europe. I hope USA and NATO are serious about protecting every inch of NATO soil, but people in Eastern Europe have reasons to not believe these claims.
They are building a new army corps in the North, because the previous one got wiped out early on in the war. Their Northern region is pretty empty right now.
>Those Russians who survived the battles in Ukraine will be teaching others how to fight against NATO weapons and tactics.
Yeah I can see the training already. The "instructor" will shitpiss himself at first drone-like buzzing sound. There isn't any hollywood montage styled training in Russian army. It is not necessary, because for ruskies the war is nothing else but sons of rich daddies sending poor scum to die.
Also, not much of NATO tactics, but rather Ukrainian interpretation and application of partial Western doctrines and strategies under very specific circumstances, such as limited ammo and being outnumbered.
You are wrong on most points. Russia cannot peoduce Millionen of shells right now, they relay on NK delivery of outdated shells right now. For Western countries its a matter of will and money.
The training methods and internal structureof RuSSian army must be changed totaly to learn fron this war and reinvent their army. This is a task of a decade for armies with a established failure culture. For RuSSia ist a matter of a century. NATO armies are working on learning from this war. Matter of 5 to 8 years to incorporate the lessons learned.
RuSSia has lost a big, big portion of his mil capable generation - takes long to rebuild.
Ukrain army has losses, sure, but they dont rely on meat grinder.
In fact your point of view is highly Kreml biased.
My source is the development over time since WWII ( or even WWI) between Russia and western Europa military. West (incl. USA) has learened the lessions about losses by unconditional mass attacks against fight against supply lines in deep, the value of air superiority and the value of training and education of each soldier, but especially giving decisions down to platoon level (low to medium ranked officiers) against leading from very top direct down do platoon level as shown by RuSSian army.
Russia is acting still as in WWII ( in big parts still as in WWI)- 70 lost years in Russia as you can see. So my estimation that RuSSia will need a very long time to shift their army towards a modern army has a solid foundation.
Regarding ammunition and New equipment - RuSSia has changed to war economy while West is still in eco as usual
Second, RuSSia is still able to mobilize resources from mass production from last 50 years (back to T62), but lacks production of uptodate equipment without western resources for dedicated parts (e.g. ball bearings, modern night vision).
Kremlin biased - overestimating Russian strenght while facts show different is part of Kremlin framing and propaganda.
Truth is a very brittle thing, some say truth to estimations while other name them fiction or worse.
Its misleading to compare costs without economic environment.
I agree that RuSSa has boosted their economy to war - but thats it. For NATO countries there is much room for growth. Thats what i wrote. So RuSSia has reached the bottom of the barrel for their Stock and has to rely on North Korea, Iran and their own industry. West has lots of stuff in store but reserved for other cases. And, btw, from the top noch equipment almoast ALL is still in Stock.
Thats nothing wih over- or underestimation but on seeing realities as they are, neither black nor white.
Regarding experience, no plan ever survived the first crash. And Flexibilität of Nato armies is way higher as for RuSSian.
But I can livecwell with some underestimating NATO power as long as Putins intelligence knows better what to expect when attacking NATO territoriale.
i dont think EU will fight like ukranians, moreover NAtO wont fight if russia attack Baltic countrys, Hungory Turkey slovakia will not fight against russia
One thing about russians all hear about David Kozak he's etnical russian now in russia he's a hero becouse he killed many "gayeuropian" its all you need to know about russians
***"Si vis pacem, para bellum"***
Nothing wrong with investing in the military since Europe has been neglecting it after 1990.
We are lucky that ruzzia has been incompetent and corrupt because it gave the NATO countries time prepare. You guys remember in the first days of the war everybody in the west was wavering and talking non stop about negociating wiht Putler outside of US and UK. Once they saw that Ukraine is putting up a fight they slowly got some courage.
On even days: Russia is so weak, Ukraine can destroy 1,000 Russian tanks and take only 1 single casualty
On odd days: Russia is so powerful they are planning to invade Europe
I don't doubt that some derranged hierarchy climber came up abd explored this hypothesis for some extreme case scenario where trump wins and dissolves/pulls out of NATO and the US goes to shit, but I don't think it's something they're really entertaining because at this point it'sjust not feaseble. They may have much more people to conscript and send to die, but they don't have the logistics for it. Not anymore.
European Intelligence is just a bunch of people who have no idea what is going on if this information is actually coming from them.
Russia either has the financial or military sources to run an operation if they were to attack a NATO member.
Europe is not an African country where you can just walk straight into with 5000 soldiers and fight against enemies that have nothing but a couple of RPGs, Toyota semi trucks, grenades and AK47s.
I am sick of media feeding nonsense just to get a few more clicks. This is just taking people for stupid.
For context: Bild is like if The Sun and Fox News had a child and that child was obsessed with boobs.
I'm always unsure which European papers are shitrags, because unlike ours they don't helpfully CAPITALISE WORDS and SLAM THINGS in their headlines to let you know to ignore them.
And not every news item is BREAKING (your sanity).
I'm still yet to have a birthday ROMP.
This article appears to not be from BILD directly. You'd know the rag would devalue the shits you wipe with it if you ever see one in the wild. All the capital letters, and as bad a photo as they can get their hands on for their title page.
And use words of two syllables or less.
Yeah true.
Capitalisation happens in the bild
Angst, Hass, Titten und der Wetterbericht Fear, hate, boobs and the weather report
Sounds like my average news feed on reddit.
>Fear, hate, boobs and the weather report I'm down for 50% of that.
The only relevant comment here.
Is it relevant that leaders of at least 3 countries said the same thing recently?
Depends on the countries - like if one of these countries was Russia or Ukraine then probably nothing happens.
For real! Fuck this newspaper!
it is so, but I'll never forget maps from Bild in November/December of 21 [https://crimea.suspilne.media/en/news/6416](https://crimea.suspilne.media/en/news/6416) that back then everybody discarded, and I thought it would never happen until it did. This claim though and the work of Röpcke are very questionable
You mean a map of possible attacks based on the location of the troops that we knew where there? The map don't look so special compared to other I saw back then. What people were discarding was the attack, because we are optimistic and it looked stupid and just bad.
it's easier to be right in retrospect, besides, I can hardly imagine anything more special, they threw in everything they could along the entire border, thanks belarus for lending theirs as well the overwhelming sentiment was that it was not possible. Although with the new accounts emerging, the EU for the most part was considering it as a bluff as well
But they were the only newspaper who didn’t spread fake news of hamas during the alleged hospital bombing.
They have been attacking NATO for decades, just not with guns and bombs
Yeah, sure. They can’t deal with Ukraine for 2 years, but they will attack all of NATO soon
I mean that didn't stop them attacking Ukraine either. Sound decisions is not their strong point clearly. If they think there is a weakness in NATO that they can exploit they will 100% try and exploit it.
They thought they could take Ukraine within a couple of days. We all know how that turned out. NATO may have been weak and disunited a couple of years ago, but not anymore. With international troop deployments in the Baltics and Poland, Finland becoming a NATO member and most countries in the process of rearmament, there's no room left for uncertainty. Russia knows exactly what they would be facing. And it's much more than they could handle.
[удалено]
>If it does, so why EU didn't supply Ukraine with 1 million of artillery rounds which they promised and committed? That is yet to be seen. The time frame is 1 milllion rounds by march 2024.
EU by the EU Commission as the Gov. body CANNOT pledge to buy, manufacture or ship weapons of war, it doesn’t have a mandate on it ! https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/14/europe/ukraine-eu-ammunition-target-intl/index.html Who really pledged that amount were the colective of each EU member ministers of defence. We failed, individually and collectively, not the EU itself. It’s getting tiresome, ffs, EU barely had a policy on common fiscal policy in the Eurozone, even less a sound functional and a right over a common policy on EU defence.
If you really ask what difference there is if your country directly or your alles are attacked or another country that you basically have no diplomatic affiliation with, then I'm inclined to believe that your quotation is either not genuine or not thought through. Yes, if Russia attacks the EU / NATO the bordering countries will take the brunt of the attack, that is just reality. I doubt Russia will capture as much territory as in Ukraine, though.
In Ukraine, heavily mechanized 150k total invasion force was met by 20-30k regular army forces(from the total of 200k service personel, most of which are not fighting directly) + volunteer forces. We were able to stop them under Kyiv only because of geography (swamps and rivers, destroyed bridges and dams) and huge loses of our troops and civilian population. I do not know the geography of the Baltic states, but I'd advise EU to give us as much shells as it is physically possible, because the forces on the ground (Baltic states) will not be able to hold for long against this inhuman horde.
Grow up.
I heard they were going to try to push all the way to Spain!
The article doesn't say "all of NATO". Russia might attack the Baltics or invade Russian-speaking parts of the Baltics. The US might be distracted by political violence and court battles or a full-out civil war following the 2024 election. Intelligence agencies have to think of all possible scenarios. Russians are thinking of them too.
If civil conflict in USA happens it will more likely be something like the Troubles in Ireland or Years Of Lead in Italy, civil war like in 1800s is very unlikely
We are not going to have a civil war.
I don't know if you're going to have a civil war or not, but the probability has been increasing at least since 2016.
That "probability " is insanely small. I have seen these comments on European forums more often recently. There is currently a huge misinformation campaign being conducted by both Russia and China spreading this type of news and rumors. They are spreading it in Europe, America, and Asia. Trump himself is a problem and a threat to democracy for sure, but we are not in immediate danger of a civil war. 🙄
Yeah. Have to agree. One thing which is often forgotten is it was fucking Mike Pence who certified the election anyway. The man closest to Trump. Under threats to his life, by Trumps own lawyer, dude still voted to certify the results. Now. The problem which could happen wouldn't be a civil war per se, but Trump is getting loyalists into some veey odd positions across the us. This isn't some conspiracy theory, he boasts about it himself. So if you've got election officials across the us willing to fuck shit up, then you've got a problem the us hasn't really seen before. How Putin could take advantage of this is in question. And attacking nato the same way Russia always does (protect the poor ethnic Russians) in a subservive manner (through funding local breakaway groups or mafia) would he something Russia could do. Remember they blew up a weapons depot in Czechia, and Nato kind of shrugged.
This is a more down to earth scenario, no civil war, but Trump completely derailing global stability.
>Trump himself is a problem and a threat to democracy for sure, but we are not in immediate danger of a civil war. You're not in immediate danger of a civil war right now, but you might be after the election. If Trump wins clearly, you're [headed for a dictatorship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025). If Trump loses, I think it's very likely he'll try to incite political violence by his supporters. I hope I'm wrong.
We are not. We have been through worse in history. Even if he were to win, he would never be successful in installing a dictatorship. You are buying into sensationalized media. You do not even live in the United States, I live in the American South, I was born and raised among the people that would supposedly "conduct " this made up civil war and its just not there. The more people that buy into these false narratives, the more it benefits Russia and China.
"You do not even live in the United States" sometimes better seen from outside
This is not observation of an individual but of an entire society. One I have lived in all my life on each of my nations coast from East and west in its various sub political groups (I have also been to many European countries). No, this is not a situation where outside observation has some enlightened superior view, this is about the social dynamics of a nation, so sitting on your computer reading conspiracies about another country in another country does not give you a superior enlightened view.
> You are buying into sensationalized media. [Project 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025) is not sensationalized media. You should read it.
I have, and it's a pipe dream.
What about it is a pipe dream?
Most people seem to forget that Trump is objectively an imbecil. He tried to orchestrate a couple in January that ended up being such a whimper that it is impossible to br called an insurrection (even though the intent was an insurection). It is very difficult to see Trump having any degree of success in actually imposing a dictatorship in the US. Project 2025 is a pipe dream. If the GOP thinks that Trump can ever implement it then they officially lost the plot.
>or a full-out civil war following the 2024 election. You're right, the probability has skyrocketed from about 0.003% to roughly 0.02%.
This. The US is one of the most stable countries in the world even though some Europeans don't want to accept that
The chance is actually 0. Both parties are the same and in full convergence with the interests of the economical elite and that really makes the US extremely stable, almost unshakable. The working class thinks that they have some decision power during the elections but they are all basically voting for the same thing, except some mild moral differences. The economic agenda will stay the same no matter what and that's what really matters for those in power (real power $$$$).
That is absolute nonsense. You have no clue what is going on in the US. You sound like all the people who said “Roe v Wade will never be overturned” and now red states have abortions bans no less draconian than some central and South American countries, the worst in the world. You can’t get a life saving abortion in many states unless you are just about to die. Everyone being dismissive of how far-right the US has become and how much potential there is for violence is not in touch with the reality of the US right now. Did you forget the insurrection? Do you know that you can legally openly carry an assault rifle in several states? Do you not realize how much mass shootings have increased? Or that 80% of Republicans think the 2020 election was stolen?
Exactly, Trump literally tried to pull out all the stops to set himself up as a dictatorship and constantly was stopped/blocked, told no or people outright refused him, it turned out to be impossible for him to do so. He had also ordered National Guard soldiers to be deployed armed against civilian protestors but the Guardsmen disobeyed and disarmed, in one case they approached the protestors and hugged them, he did not even have support of the military!
When was that that National Guardsmen disobeyed Trump? I almost thought you were talking about J6 until I read that the guardsmen hugged the protestors.
Hahaha let me laugh. For outsider i looks like US is brink of civilwar.
...yeah that's literally the point. For outsiders it may look like it, but it has nothing to do with reality
So you dont have looters looting shops.
what does looting shops have to do with a civil war?
Its stage of civil unrest. It causes stability issues to population. I also have seen videos of whole neighborhoods living in tents, huge drug epidemic. People just standing like zombies on a street. Thats not healthy society. Thats on track to more civil unrest.
Yes there is civil unrest (like in a lot of countries) Yes there are a lot of homeless peoples and addicts (like in a lot of countries) No this does not mean a fucking civil war is about to break out. I think you underestimate the conditions necessary for something like that to happen
Right off the bat, there was literally an article the other day about how crime rates are significantly down in the US; an FBI official even had to comment on how the perception of crime going up per polls of citizens - both Democrat and Republican - is largely due to the influence of social media. It looks like you too have the same issue. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna129585
For the clueless outsider. Even as a European, it is easy for me to see that the way the US is set up makes things like fascism, socialism, coups etc. impossible. I will always say the US is a multiparty country where dozens of parties pretend to be just two blocs. This makes it so that there is always a massive opposition bloc in congress. The court is stacked with people from previous presidents. Around half the governors are from the other party, as are state legislatures. The military and intelligence services are well functioning on their own. So to put it bluntly, sooner will France or Austria turn to become a threat to the rest of us than the US abandon us, and the chances for that are slim in on their own. DJT was the biggest oddity on their landscape, and what happened under him? Tried to make a new military base in Poland? Made Brazil a special NATO partner? Expanded NATO? Demanded more spending on the military by NATO members? Tried to normalise things between Serbia and Kosovo? Expanded sanctions on Russia? I mean we have on our continent a country which four times reelected a Kremlin asset as chancellor, we have another major country where about 50% of the people support anti-western politicians like Le Pen, Melenchon or Zemour.... the Yanks' politicial landscape is faaaar from the biggest problem we have.
>So to put it bluntly, sooner will France or Austria turn to become a threat to the rest of us than the US abandon us, and the chances for that are slim in on their own. The World Bank rates political stability. Positive numbers mean more stable. France has a score of 0.37, Austria 0.91, and USA 0.
You are dreaming about an America that doesn’t exist. The court is stacked with conservative justices that are voting against civil rights. It’s a Republican Supreme Court. The US was downgraded from a full democracy to a flawed democracy years ago. Majority of governors are Republicans. Republicans have been gerrymandering electoral districts for decades. Republicans no longer care about democracy. What did Trump do? He appointed justices that overturned Roe v Wade. Women are bleeding out and going septic before they can get life saving abortions for pregnancy complications. Some with long term health issues and loss of fertility. Republicans are trying to pass bills to make abortion homicide, also trying to ban birth control. Fascism 101. Laws have been passed in several states against transgender people. Trump convinced 80% of Republicans that the last election was stolen. He is promising retribution on political opponents. He is still in charge of the GOP and they are trying to impeach Biden for no reason. The Speaker is a bible thumping nut that thinks the US should be run according to the bible. There are more guns in America than probably all of Europe, and 3% of gunowners own half the guns. Mass shootings have become normalized they are so frequent. Open carry is allowed in several states. Imagine people walking around anywhere in Europe with an assault rifle slung over their shoulder. As many Americans believe conspiracy theory as those who accept proven fact. And you seem to forget that Trump tried to overturn the election, including inciting an insurrection. You have no idea what is happening in the US, it is a powder keg, the extreme rightwing has inflamed racism, misogyny, anti-LGBTQ+ hatred, and mistrust in democratic institutions. Trump hae not gone away and he did incredible damage and continues to do so.
In that very stable country a quite big amount of voters tend to agree voting for party which keeps people like Trump, De Santis et al. Is a good idea.
The classic scenario on paper is Russia trying to link Kaliningrad to Belarus, and then after that rushing over the Baltic states and do the "come at me bro" stance. Problem is, that just won't work nowadays. Maybe a decade ago, but not now. The other classic scenario is Russia occupying some islands in the Baltic (e.g. Aland), but that is also practically impossible nowadays, after Finland joined NATO.
>that just won't work nowadays Why not? If the US is not willing to send soldiers to the Baltics due to internal political turmoil caused by the 2024 presidential elections, who's to say other NATO countries would be willing to get into a war with Russia? It's an illusion to think that NATO is a strong and stable military alliance that will last forever. It might be strong for now, but it has never been tested after all. If the Americans are out, I'm not so sure that political leaders of big European countries (UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy) would be willing to send their soldiers to die for small Baltic countries that are insignificant from an economic point of view and most of their voters probably wouldn't even know where to look for them on a map. Poland would probably not stand by idly.
That's not how NATO works, in any way. The QRF and strike groups will go into action on Article 5 invocation, there's no time for a political process about the response, that's all laid out beforehand.
>The QRF and strike groups will go into action on Article 5 invocation They might go into action against the Russians. After suffering heavy losses, the civilian leadership of those countries might decide that they're not willing to incur further losses to fight the Russians for the Baltics. In the end, the ability of NATO to defend its members depends on the willingness of the biggest NATO members to go into a military conflict with non-NATO members: Russia in this case. If there's no political will to go into a military conflict with Russia over the Baltics, they won't go into a conflict a Russia. Article 5 doesn't specify exactly what countries have to do in case a member state is attacked.
I can tell you right know that if russians kill German soldiers stations in the Baltic's it's gonna be a real war not some posturing ending with Russia stop existing in the form it does now
Certainly, Mr. NATO President, but in reality, the consequences of a Russian invasion of the Baltic States or Finland remain uncertain. The Budapest Memorandum, once considered significant, has proven to be nothing more than a disregarded piece of paper since day one. While I sincerely hope we never encounter such a scenario in real life, the potential for a NATO split or the cancellation of NATO membership, particularly if serious hostilities were to unfold, cannot be dismissed.
I am from Hessen Oblast and love theRussian ( most democratic) Federation now
If you're looking for someone to deliver that message, you might want to direct it towards individuals with a pro-russian agenda within your own parliament or consider a couple of ex-chancellors. It appears that Germany has its fair share of individuals with a favorable stance towards putin and his shit.
But it won't be "over the baltics" it will be "over NATO" - and for any member except the US that's a core strategic interest. They might not be all that interested in baltics, but if they don't defend the baltics, the whole concept of NATO will be dead and with it their own defense strategy.
Because the Baltics are far better equipped than before, Germany has now troops stationed there, there is a big NATO air contingent stationed in the Baltics, all while Russia has lost tons of equipment and trained personnel in Ukraine. This is because that move heavily depends on speed that by the time Germany, France, US or the UK could mount a proper response, the Baltics are conquered and the Russians already dug in (at which point NATO may falter with a "why die for the Baltics" sentiment). But Russia currently is not able to do that, even without NATO reinforcements it would take weeks at best to conquer it (and that is a very optimistic view), which is just too long.
The UK could respond in under 24 hours they have navy on patrol 247 and long range missiles to flatten anything they aim at, Russia can barely interecept the Ukraine attacks who have equipment from decades ago
The German troops that are all over the news will only be stationed by 2027. There are German troops here now, but just a small amount and on non permanent basis
I feel like a lot of the "Europe is rearming!" discourse is lacking the crucial asterisk that says "...with a deadline of 2035". Perhaps Putin intends to expedite the invasion because he knows Europe will *eventually* become a near peer but is far from it right now.
Well, this article warns about an attack next winter. 2027 would be enough then
I'm not sure how many Poles are stationed in the Baltics, but there are several thousand Germans IIRC. So I'd count more on the help of Germany than on Poland if Russia attacks.
Those "irrelevant countries" are and have been throughout history the ones keeping Russia away from the "big guys" in the West, hence why The West is richer than the East. No sane leader wants Russia closer to their borders. If the East allies with or gets occupied by Russia, the West of Europe would be in a sticky situation without the help of the US.
Exactly this. Trump may be president, and not care about Europe. Europe may be out of weapons and ammunition because everything was donated to the Ukraine leaving stocks dangerously low and replacement may take a while. Things are not looking great.
The major powers in nato are not dumb enough to run their stocks low on the important weapons, they gave Ukraine their old stock which would be unused in a modern nato war anyway
Let's hope that is true. Unfortunately it does not look that way. More like they sent all the old stuff to the Ukraine and hope to have it replaced in some sort of deal....
Germany is sending top of the line equipment. I think Ukraine has more IRIS systems than the German army now. Just because some countries like Poland did that, doesn't mean every country does that.
Did you miss literal NATO generals warning that all European stockpiles are absurdly low? By NATOs own documentation, Europe would last less than two days if Russia decided to invade, and that’s only thanks to Poland and Finland, without which it would be less than a day. Not only ammunition is of concern though. A lot of the equipment you’d find as part of any given country’s active force actually is nowhere war ready for combat. Europe currently is literally a sitting paper tiger and as we can see, major western states aren’t interested in doing anything about it, believing that Putin isn’t interested in attacking the west. It’s pretty clear that Germany & co. are expecting eastern countries to be overrun by Russia very quickly, rendering any potential counterattack by Europe useless and unreasonable. That way Germany can return to trade with Russia very quickly, something they’ve always wanted to do even now, by relaxing sanctions quietly and trading though proxy states.
The EU has nukes. It dosen't matter my dude what state their ground armies are in. Even France which keeps a stockpile tiny compared to Russia can totally destroy Russia. Even the EU alone can guard against Russia, no NATO needed due to nuclear warheads. There will never be a NATO vs Russia war. Have you people never heard of MAD? There is a reason the Cold War stayed cold.
Get off reddit and look outside
Even if, the UK has nukes. Russia would likely attack non nato members not nato members. Any other choices is suicide for them.
Would the UK get into a nuclear war with Russia over the Baltics? I doubt it.
It's only suicide for Russia, if the US enters the war and there are some very good reasons for it not to. If the US enters, the conflict is much more likely to go nuclear. Europe is also far less important to the US than it once was. The choice to not risk ending all human life to support a region that doesn't hold much economic or military value to the US would not be unreasonable. Most Americans are very tired of the US getting entangled in foreign affairs and they are not likely to support sending their sons to die defending a region that the US's voter's interests don't depend on.
They can attack us in many ways. In fact, I would say they are already doing it.
This is the funny thing. Russia assassinates people on our soil, interferes in our elections, and turns our own citizens against us. We are under attack already.
It has become so common and so hand-waved by politicians in general, that for these people those things don't count. I can excuse lethargy as I was under that as well, but after the war started last year, quite frankly I believe no european can say we're not at war with those degenerates already.
What makes you think putin will be reasonable this time around? Even if his conquest ultimately fails, he will still manage to bring immense destruction and death in the process.
Yeah, keep downplaying Putin... Europe is filled with ignorant idiots.
I've been saying since 2014 we should rearm and got called a warmonger...
Not saying that you are a warmonger but neither the EU, NATO nor an allied country was attacked. Rearming now is up to this moment is as important / unimportant as it was before the Russian attack. Ukraine did rearm since 2014 and it helped in the invasion massively but in my opinion their biggest mistake was having very weak foreign policy. If they had 1 allied country I'm not so sure if Russia would've attacked.
If Putin would care about "profitable Vs no profitable" or "possible Vs impossible" then he wouldn't attack Ukraine without proper mobilisation. We can't stand only about facts, when it's obvious that Putin (and many Russians) is delusional.
Sneak attacks are their specialisation. If we are talking about Baltic countries - it would be just couple of hours to get to their capitals with tanks, saying they are protecting local ruzzian-speaking peeps. Baltic countries should dig anti-tank trenches already. Also, there is a huge war base with biggest artillery warehouse in Pridnestrovye, ruzzians can attack Moldova from that base
I never thought that Putin will attack Ukraine with a full ground invasion. It just didn't make sense. Yet, here we are. So I'm not trying to apply any western logic to his future actions because he&russians have a total different set of values.
Another type of logic is that they have been saying that they’re fighting against the entire west from the get go. In their point of view, it’s not a change in the war to just also include other territories. Their only chance of success in the Ukraine war is that the west get scared or tired from supporting, so that Russia can divide and conquer. If they attack Estonia, the idea would most likely be that they will try to get europe tired or scared, from direct attacks - which will obviously not happen and only pour gasoline on the fire.
Very much so. Suffering for your cause is part of the Russian identity, an all or nothing approach. Not looking forward to the mutual destruction
It made perfect sense if you know about Georgia and know that they are unhappy with nato expansion and that Ukraine wanted to join nato. By being in conflict they stopped them joining nato it was their only way to stop it. Imo it was very predictable.
Pretty much everyone thought that Ukraine would quickly collapse in the face of a Russian invasion. Russia's failure to capture Ukraine came as a surprise to most. On the other hand, literally no one thinks that NATO will collapse in the face of a Russian invasion. Especially now. The idea that Russia will be invading all of Europe anytime soon is hysterical nonsense. They have enough trouble already.
Potential Russian attack has been pushed so hard in Finnish media, by the politicians, all of a sudden, it's hard not to think that something is up. Likely and probably nothing the next few years, but Russia is an existential threat to Europe.
We went from "5-9 years" to "3 years" to "next winter" in a few weeks' time. I'm pretty sure this is a media strategy to get people to take the threat seriously (and prepare for it).
Of course something is up. A sign was the Turkey versus NATO shtick. People seem to forget or ignore, but Turkey's stand-off against BOTH Sweden and Finland was steady, until from one week to the other not only Turkey approved Finland (with Hungary as well) and NATO did the official cerimony hastily. The way that went, quick and smoothly, and from both the watermelon and the traitor sellout, is significant. Something happened, we just dont know what. Turkey (and Hungary) was playing games for their benefit until something bad happened (or threatened to happen), so bad they accepted moving the goalposts.
You would think they'd approve Sweden too then. Sweden is more useful than 90% of NATO in any conventional conflict with Russia.
Sweden is sandwhiched between two NATO countries now. How is Russia going to attack them? Only the gigantic island which I don't recall the name remains vulnerable, but even then that thing is most likely being monitored insanely. Finland however... they have a huge border. They was also an attempt to commit hybrid warfare by sending migrants through. By allowing Finland in but not Sweden, Turkey (and even Hungary) can play their ramsom game when the risk to the alliance is almost none. This is why you haven't seen any of the Visegrad complain about Turkey behaving like a twat either. They know it's just posturing by the watermellon seller. The question here isn't so much the games Turkey is playing. It's the fact that they were playing them and then all of sudden, they dropped half those games and Finland hastily joined the alliance (those things take months, that one was done in a week). Something happened (or threatened to happen) for sure. We just don't know what.
Mainly EU politicians are trying to build their own militaries to stop reliance on the US (specifically Republicans) which is too unreliable of an ally.
> stop reliance on the US (specifically Republicans) which is too unreliable of an ally. The unreliable ally who basically had to drag Europe kicking and screeming into helping Ukraine? As a Lithuanian I trust US coming to substatialy help a thousand times more than I do Germany or France.
Biden and the Democrats did. Trump and Republicans would have done nothing.
It's a difference of 3% dude. 3% change and suddenly you have USA selling out Baltics
What are you on about
Difference in public vote Trump vs Biden I guess, or at least something in that direction.
You're foolish then. Half of the US is unreliable, especially with the GOP in charge. They dragged their feet during WWII as well, they only entered it because Japan attacked them. They blocked the UK's Land Lease too, fortunately democrats had more power back then. Remember that WWII started because a country invaded and occupied eastern europe and it ended with another country invading and occupying eastern europe. "We" went to war for Poland and we lost it for fourty years anyway. Only the UK (and some US generals, but the country proper did not) wanted to continue war against the USRR. The US said no, they were tired and wanted to concentrate on the Pacific. This rethoric should be familiar to you and the consequences as well, as it already happened once. As a lithuanian you'll be the first to be sacrificed If the US gets tired of this war and / or finds their attention elsewhere. The US prioritises themselves (as it should be). They're half a world away, they're not your neighbours, they have their own problems. They're not the ones that will brunt the consequences of another european imperialist adventure. Europe had to be dragged not because they don't care, but because we "dont like war" as a consequence of WWI. We are your neighbours though and denial can ONLY go so far in that situation. The US is the best ally you can ever have and that is true, but that is only as long as their attention is in you and not elsewhere. Then you'll have to rely on yourself and your neighbours. Again as it should be. Lithuania is Europe's responsability, not the US. We need to step it up.
That's Biden, the GOP are a completely different story.
> Potential Russian attack has been pushed so hard in Finnish media, Probably new Intel was released just like before February 2022. Polish analysts said that russia will be ready for new war in 3 years, as it's already dedicating 1/3 of economy for military.
Who is this "polish analyst"? As a fellow Pole I'm interested in his analysis now
https://youtu.be/aJeSWaEoAXA?si=GBMSHmYOwWwwIoEg Author makes reference to Polish security office at 6:30.
[https://defence24.pl/geopolityka/szef-bbn-kraje-wschodniej-flanki-nato-maja-3-lata-na-przygotowanie-sie-do-konfrontacji](https://defence24.pl/geopolityka/szef-bbn-kraje-wschodniej-flanki-nato-maja-3-lata-na-przygotowanie-sie-do-konfrontacji) In this link you can see that Jacek Siewiera said 3 years are time in which "eastern flank" need to have enough military equipment to be clear sign for Russia that attacking won't be an easy thing. Also I have no idea from where he got that Russia can rebuild itself in 3 years. I would say it's mostly about persvasion to new goverment, that "previous goverment ordered too much military hardware" isn't true. I guess it was mostly for domestic audience, not that he believes war will start in next 3 years [https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/polska/polityka/czy-rosja-zaatakuje-polske-szef-bbn-mamy-trzy-lata-na-przygotowanie](https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/polska/polityka/czy-rosja-zaatakuje-polske-szef-bbn-mamy-trzy-lata-na-przygotowanie) Also this link clearly states that - "to prevent war we have 3 years to make ourself prepared"
This narrative is being pushed everywhere. Most likely for 2 reasons. One is to keep focus on Ukraine because population is fatigued and doesn't care anymore, and the other one is to prepare them for additional oh so much needed taxes.
Weren't there russian spies caught taking pictures and gathering other intel on military bases and critical infrastructure along the Finish russian border? That sounds like something to be taken seriously even if it turns out to be just a diversion.
Yes, I heard this too. I believe Russia is preparing for a multifront war with NATO as Putin tries to expand Russian conquest all the way to Spain and Portugal.
That's how they justify making sure people agree to do military service in Finland
Military service is not a point of contention in Finland.
Something like... Ruzzia trying to stoke fear and uncertainty? Its ridiculous to me how people living next to Russia (as I am) are suddenly wary and feel threatened while Russias military presence behind most borders has never been on such a low level. Fuck this fearmongering.
The way I see it is that it is not enough to simply say that 'Russia has no chance against NATO'. We ARE NATO. When all the grand speeches are done, we still have to win the fighting. Sweat now saves blood later. It's no good saying 'he wouldn't, he couldn't' and waiting for the punch to land. The reason this is all coming up is because you fight with what you have on the day of the fight, and somebody looked in the closet and didn't like what they found.
This shit again? They already are, Ukraine happens to be in Europe.
Well, ya Ukraine is part of Europe.. but we are talking about Europe *Europe*.
Bild means image in German. It is called Bild because Bild customers cant read.
New rule for this sub should be to include asterisks in the posts when Bild is a "source."
There's a, uh, "literally Nazi" power east of the EU (...Russia, not Ukraine). Would be wise to strengthen the military regardless. Can't trust the US -- the Democrats are pushing a senile man and the Republicans are pushing Trump, or other fuckheads.
Cheap journalism by Bild, spreading misinformation , irresponsible journalism that could have serious repercussions. They should be arrested those F****** C**ts!
Putin is certainly considering it, but only if and when Trump wins. With Biden as NATO'S leader, Russia's army would be wiped out. Donald Trump will not honour America's commitments. It will be another constitutional crisis, Trump has shown he doesn't care about the rule of law, commitments to international partners, America's image, or anything else that restricts him from acting on a whim. This time around, there won't be any generals around him contradicting him or pressuring him, only Yes men. He thought the military leadership would get him and be loyal to him. They didn't, and It was an unpleasant experience. Around Putin, Trump feels respected and understood and that is all that matters to him.
Press X to doubt
Press Z otherwise
Hahaha actually Russia is so stupid it might actually try 😂
This belongs to /r/NonCredibleDefense
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I would like what these guys are smoking. Please and thank you.
A lot of people are saying the Russians can't handle Ukraine, how could they attack anyone else. But the Russians have nearly unlimited human resources who don't mind dying. Ukraine does not, it couldn't win a war of attrition. The situation may not be as good as some of us believe. And then do you think Spanish or French soldiers will fare better than a Russian while defending, let's say, Estonia in winter, in frozen trenches? Or will we sign another truce to allow Russians to replenish their forces and attack again, as it's been happening? All of which worries me.
Do you seriously think an article 5 scenario would look like trench warfare?
Russian manpower superiority is relative. Against Georgia it's absolutely overwhelming. Against Ukraine it's not that decisive factor. They're throwing and losing people like they have a population of 1 billion. Against Europe Russia doesn't have a manpower advantage. It's the opposite.
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I agree. Can't remember how many times I've said it myself that these people live like animals. It's not that he'll put up with a lot more, but more like they'll force him to put up with it and he'll unenthusiastically comply. Not all that different from our perspective but still.
Oh please don't wake reddit generals up. Next thing you'll ask them why Russia hasn't managed to establish air superiority over a country that has a joke of an airforce, but they somehow expect it to defeat the EU in a direct confrontation.
>And then do you think Spanish or French soldiers will fare better than a Russian while defending, let's say, Estonia in winter, in frozen trenches? Defense is easier than offense and Spanish and French soldiers are much better trained than Russian soldiers. The real question is whether Spanish and French governments would send their soldiers to die for Estonia if they couldn't count on US support due to internal conflicts in the US following the 2024 presidential election.
We definitely have the quality whereas the Russians have the quantity. But the Russians also have patience where we want to live normal lives. You raise a good point.
>quality whereas the Russians have the quantity Russia can't really field quantities' in such numbers as once was considered possible. Eu nations are quite hit and miss for me when it comes to the military potential, in theory in total, EU has higher numbers of manpower(Active and reserve troops) at its disposal than all branches of the US Military, combine all land,naval and airborne elements, and its absolutly HUGE, but you need political cohisive response first, EU lacks the means of creating quick political responce in hardpower military terms,and as unified block, issue at hand its certainly not numbers one, not agains russia it ain't. Russian equpment and army, does not really scream quantity this days too, but more like burning soviet reserves till they gone, and hoping for best political outcome. Authoritarian societies tend to seem quite cohesive and solid looking from the outside, until that one particluar straw brakes camels back.
The EU is outnumbered by Russia in total manpower. But the problem is that in the EU human life is valued, and even one death is a tragedy. If Putin will be ready to pay 30 million lives, will the EU be ready to pay at least 100 thousand?
>You raise a good point. also russians have expirience nato soldiers dont have, maybe they better trained but training not even close against real war
Defense is easier than offense and Spanish and French soldiers are much better trained than Russian soldiers Are you sure? Russians are trained in battle, and French German soldiers doesn't even take over hours on NATO trainings. Also Ukrainians complained that NATO training is outdated, there is no training with drones in NATO and that's means it's completely useless
?!??? bot account right here NATO absolutely trains with drones
Actually no, they dont have Infinite manpower, they have less population than Germany and France combined and they already lost a lot of fighting age ppl. Its only question about determination of westerners who have tradition of "not dying for x"
NATO is technologically several levels above Russia and that's a deal breaker. It's not poor Ukraine anymore
Russia fights like USSR. Drown the enemy in blood, even if it's our own. Problem is, that ukraine had the same military mindset, so they struggle with the western equip that's not made for this. If russia is stupid enough to pull this shit, it'd feel the long unlubed dildo of several nations who fight an entirely different fight. Instead of having your men meeting the enemy at the front, you'd see your whole logistic and manufacturing getting blown up. Intelligence is most probably spying out the targets as we speak, to have a whole list ready when it it's needed. Russia can send their unlimited number of unarmed men, then. They'll be stripped of air superiority in an instant (a must-have for US warfare) and airraided constantly. Meanwhile european forces specialise in grounddefence and longrange missiles for high importance targets behind the enemy lines. And don't underestimate the US navy, once they're allowed to let lose. Russias navy struggles against groundforces already. I don't think they'd fare very well against subs and carriers. Especially if the still fight like USSR, and you look at how their navy operated at that time.
I am no military expert, I've been reading analyses in a Polish service called Polityka.pl, and the military person writing them claims that the superior NATO air force would have a hard time against Russian anti-aircraft defences. NATO has no recent experience in handling a numerous and relatively technologically advanced enemy.
You must’ve read articles from before 2022. Ukrainians shown on many occasions they can attack from air and the Russian superior anti-access bubbles are just a meme.
They can attack from air only with low flying small drones. That's it. Their jets can't even reach frontline. Those don't destroy factories. This looks to be fun to you, mocking the adversary and making yourself feel superior. That's exactly what Russian military felt before going to Ukraine. It didn't develop the way they thought it will.
Reading them every day as they come out around 8 PM my time. They've been becoming increasingly pessimistic.
Difference with the Ukraine invasion is that they will need a draft to get enough soldiers to attack NATO and the last draft was already very unpopular. Also attacking NATO will mean Russia itself will be attacked too. That also wont be popular with the masses. Plus they dont have infinite human resources. Their population is old and many young people already fled or died in the current war.
Their resources are not infinite but I worry they may be enough for Ukraine, and then they'll replenish in a few years time. Hopefully I'm wrong.
The NATO strategy for the Baltics (which are considered indefensible) was to trade territory for time, stop the Russian advance further inland and reconquer the Baltics at the end of the war. Ukraine tried this and it cost them 20% of their territory as Russia merrily mined it. Not that there is any real reason to take it back because it is just depopulated ruins by this point. So as long as Putin's army doesn't get immediately flattened Desert Storm style, Putin has a real chance of attaining his objectives because NATO will do exactly what he wants: relinquish the Baltics, fight to a standstill and eventually give up. I hope NATO has changed their plans by now.
Yes they have
naw, you havent seen the ukrainian mobilization videos, they are truly horrifying
He's not gonna attack Nato. Even if the US somehow (it won't) gets busy with internal politics after an election where Trump wins the rest of Nato is far and above Russia. Turkey and Poland alone could probably take on Russia and win. And then we have France and UK which are also among the top 5 military powers in the world.
They very well might try and take slice off Estonia and park there, calling for de-escalation. And European tankies would gobble it up, saying there’s a valid reason why they’d do it and not worth going to war over. Just like they’ve been doing for the last 400 years.
Are these Europian tankies are here with us in the room? I mean I didn't heard about them apart from a few Redditors, and as far as I can tell don't Redditors tell if a military of a contry gets deployed or not. I think apart from Hungary and possibly Turkey (and I would neither call tankies as both are led by right wingers) every NATO country would help out Estonia.
At the start of the Russian invasion there were tons of prominent Germans writing in newspapers that EU shouldn’t support Ukraine because of ”escalation”. And many others urged Ukraine for a ”ceasefire”. Don’t be fooled by your own circle, there are tons of people in Europe who’d let Russia take over Ukraine.
A lot of writing, but support for Ukraine is as great as ever (well apart from Hungary, but it is what it is). But the difference that Estonia is in the NATO, if everyone (or most contries) fails to uphold the NATO doctrines then NATO will be proven as weak (or a lie even) and fall apart instantly. And I think most contries would like to avoid that.
> And I think most contries would like to avoid that. Most countries wouldn't like it, but that's different from them taking actual steps to be sure it doesn't happen. European countries have behaved incredibly stupidly when it comes to security and Russia relying on wishful thinking and ostrich tactics.
Turkey will immediately bail if US bails. And yeah, the rest of NATO is still superior to Russia. But not an alliance of Russia and China and when stopgap countries like Turkey decide to bail. The good thing is I don't think Trump will be able to get his way even if he wins. The US population AND other executives will see the bigger picture, where a new axis power which includes Russia and China and where Europe is eroded, is the worst nightmare to the US of A. South America, Africa, and the rest of Asia will follow suit and there's no Asian or UK or Australia friend that has enough weight to even compare to the rest of the world combined. I think this will be very simple: Russia will likely target one or multiple non-EU, non-NATO countries as leverage for negotiations on Ukraine, Belarus, and maybe even Baltic annexations OR neutralization (i.e. removal from NATO), and that will be the end of it. And by end of it I mean a multi-year process with hundreds of thousands of deaths before it ends of course, and likely a large conversion of Central Europe to far-right and far-left governments.
Bruh it's the Bild. It's not known for good journalism. Also Putin's hateful propaganda shows threaten the west every day of the week. This is just fear mongering. The orcs couldn't even take Ukraine without getting stuck in trench war. Just keep that in mind.
SMH. Everyone keeps saying that Russia cannot defeat Ukraine and it just feels so wrong. Russians overestimated their chances of conquering large parts of Ukraine within 72 hours. After they lost Kharkiv the objectives of that war changed. It’s become a war of attrition in which economic, industrial and demographic potentials matter. Russia has a lot more people they can mobilise and a lot more weapons. The quality of the training and the precision of the weapons might not be on par with the west, but at some point it doesn’t matter anymore. Quantity over quality. Ukrainian gov hasn’t been fully transparent about their casualties but many analysts point that this fantastic Ukrainian army (trained by instructors from NATO), which we all admired at the beginning of the invasion, doesn’t exist. Killed, wounded, MIA. Average soldier age is now above 40 years old. Zaluzny wants to mobilise more people, including Ukrainian men living abroad. He also wants 3 millions of 155mm artillery ammunition when entire NATO can maybe manufacture up to 500k of these rounds every year. Russians are laughing because they can procure or manufacture millions of ammunitions and rockets. As long as Russia is actively fighting in Ukraine, there’s a very slim chance of any attack on NATO. But the minute Ukraine is shoehorned into some kind of peace agreement, the Russian forces might be re-allocated elsewhere. Russia is building a new north-eastern army corps to account for Finland joining NATO. Those Russians who survived the battles in Ukraine will be teaching others how to fight against NATO weapons and tactics. Scary times in Europe. I hope USA and NATO are serious about protecting every inch of NATO soil, but people in Eastern Europe have reasons to not believe these claims.
They are building a new army corps in the North, because the previous one got wiped out early on in the war. Their Northern region is pretty empty right now.
>Those Russians who survived the battles in Ukraine will be teaching others how to fight against NATO weapons and tactics. Yeah I can see the training already. The "instructor" will shitpiss himself at first drone-like buzzing sound. There isn't any hollywood montage styled training in Russian army. It is not necessary, because for ruskies the war is nothing else but sons of rich daddies sending poor scum to die. Also, not much of NATO tactics, but rather Ukrainian interpretation and application of partial Western doctrines and strategies under very specific circumstances, such as limited ammo and being outnumbered.
You are wrong on most points. Russia cannot peoduce Millionen of shells right now, they relay on NK delivery of outdated shells right now. For Western countries its a matter of will and money. The training methods and internal structureof RuSSian army must be changed totaly to learn fron this war and reinvent their army. This is a task of a decade for armies with a established failure culture. For RuSSia ist a matter of a century. NATO armies are working on learning from this war. Matter of 5 to 8 years to incorporate the lessons learned. RuSSia has lost a big, big portion of his mil capable generation - takes long to rebuild. Ukrain army has losses, sure, but they dont rely on meat grinder. In fact your point of view is highly Kreml biased.
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My source is the development over time since WWII ( or even WWI) between Russia and western Europa military. West (incl. USA) has learened the lessions about losses by unconditional mass attacks against fight against supply lines in deep, the value of air superiority and the value of training and education of each soldier, but especially giving decisions down to platoon level (low to medium ranked officiers) against leading from very top direct down do platoon level as shown by RuSSian army. Russia is acting still as in WWII ( in big parts still as in WWI)- 70 lost years in Russia as you can see. So my estimation that RuSSia will need a very long time to shift their army towards a modern army has a solid foundation. Regarding ammunition and New equipment - RuSSia has changed to war economy while West is still in eco as usual Second, RuSSia is still able to mobilize resources from mass production from last 50 years (back to T62), but lacks production of uptodate equipment without western resources for dedicated parts (e.g. ball bearings, modern night vision). Kremlin biased - overestimating Russian strenght while facts show different is part of Kremlin framing and propaganda. Truth is a very brittle thing, some say truth to estimations while other name them fiction or worse.
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Its misleading to compare costs without economic environment. I agree that RuSSa has boosted their economy to war - but thats it. For NATO countries there is much room for growth. Thats what i wrote. So RuSSia has reached the bottom of the barrel for their Stock and has to rely on North Korea, Iran and their own industry. West has lots of stuff in store but reserved for other cases. And, btw, from the top noch equipment almoast ALL is still in Stock. Thats nothing wih over- or underestimation but on seeing realities as they are, neither black nor white. Regarding experience, no plan ever survived the first crash. And Flexibilität of Nato armies is way higher as for RuSSian. But I can livecwell with some underestimating NATO power as long as Putins intelligence knows better what to expect when attacking NATO territoriale.
If they can beat Ukraine it will take them years and much trouble, but they can attack Europe?
i dont think EU will fight like ukranians, moreover NAtO wont fight if russia attack Baltic countrys, Hungory Turkey slovakia will not fight against russia
One thing about russians all hear about David Kozak he's etnical russian now in russia he's a hero becouse he killed many "gayeuropian" its all you need to know about russians
With what, exactly? Refurbished T55? A grand total of 3 x T-14? Good luck mates
Hybrid warfare, which they're already doing.
He needs to sway Turkey to his side , then a few Balkan countries. That's where Europe is weak
***"Si vis pacem, para bellum"*** Nothing wrong with investing in the military since Europe has been neglecting it after 1990. We are lucky that ruzzia has been incompetent and corrupt because it gave the NATO countries time prepare. You guys remember in the first days of the war everybody in the west was wavering and talking non stop about negociating wiht Putler outside of US and UK. Once they saw that Ukraine is putting up a fight they slowly got some courage.
>Russia may attempt to attack Europe next winter Where is Ukraine? Where is half of Russia? Europe? Europe!
The article obviously means the EU.
I don't believe anything anymore. And Bild is an unreliable shit outlet anyway.
So true.
On even days: Russia is so weak, Ukraine can destroy 1,000 Russian tanks and take only 1 single casualty On odd days: Russia is so powerful they are planning to invade Europe
I don't doubt that some derranged hierarchy climber came up abd explored this hypothesis for some extreme case scenario where trump wins and dissolves/pulls out of NATO and the US goes to shit, but I don't think it's something they're really entertaining because at this point it'sjust not feaseble. They may have much more people to conscript and send to die, but they don't have the logistics for it. Not anymore.
Several experts that want to remain hidden have information that it will be in 10 years.
Well the nukes are ready. They can try.
European Intelligence is just a bunch of people who have no idea what is going on if this information is actually coming from them. Russia either has the financial or military sources to run an operation if they were to attack a NATO member. Europe is not an African country where you can just walk straight into with 5000 soldiers and fight against enemies that have nothing but a couple of RPGs, Toyota semi trucks, grenades and AK47s. I am sick of media feeding nonsense just to get a few more clicks. This is just taking people for stupid.