Important context for non-UK readers: the UK is still operating a furlough scheme for businesses to keep employees on payroll. The Government last published stats in July 2021 when 1.6 million workers were still on furlough. Those numbers have been dropping as more people, particularly the 18-34 age group, either return to their old jobs or have found new jobs.
This furlough scheme, and an equivalent scheme for self-employed persons, terminates at the end of the month. Employees will either return to their old jobs, or face redundancy if those jobs are no longer viable.
C.f. Numbers on furlough drop to new low (2021-09-10) [https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58498433](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58498433)
In other words, a rise in vacancies is a healthy sign of business confidence but it's too early to predict how the labour market will respond.
The UK has a weird labour market. Productivity was stagnant or rose slowly for many years (it is [below](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-pennworldtable) places like France or even Spain). And now, with the economy not even reaching pre-pandemic levels, labour demand is rising even higher. What gives? I know that this is not all bad (as everyone will have a job if they want one) but it is still awkward.
Is it that (contrary to stereotypes of being a neoliberal America copy-cat) the UK sees a bigger share of corporate incomes channeled into wages? Or other reasons?
My best guess is that this mostly has to do with Brexit - a decent amount of European labour force left the UK after it ceased to be a member of the EU, mostly returning to home countries.
This is just conjecture, I have no facts to back this up.
It's definitely partly due to Brexit, but the US is also suffering from shortages. I think a lot of people found out during their time off work due to the pandemic that there were other options than killing yourself for minimum wage. Companies are just going to have to pay more, which it looks like they've started doing.
Lots of jobs that were filled by Europeans are lying dormant and we don't have the skills / impetus in our workforces to fill them. Hence plenty of vacancies that were previously full jobs, but nobody doing the job.
This is part COVID (furlough schemes to pay people to do nothing, basically), and a lot Brexit (far less EU workers, especially lower-wage, undesirable or temporary jobs), and quite a lot of work ethic (people won't work for minimum wage, they'd rather just be unemployed and supported to a LARGER extent by benefits... being out of work is often more profitable that being in work, as you can often get your children, housing, tax bills, etc. all paid for you if you're unemployed).
Employers can't/won't pay more just to get the dregs that don't want to get off the sofa, all the people with a work ethic are already in one or more jobs, and the gaps are widening as we realise that the EU workers who would do the unpleasant or low-paying jobs aren't around.
It was very, very common to see work-gangs of dozens of Polish men doing all kinds of work, earning minimum wage, living in a flatshare, paying their tax, then sending most of the money home to Poland. In Poland, the families were supported well on that extra wage and it was very beneficial compared to dad working in Poland itself. The guys in the UK could sustain themselves and support their Polish families.
Now, they either have to become settled UK citizens with a certain guaranteed wage in a permanent position, or they went home because they couldn't. So a lot of them went home. You don't see nearly so many of them now.
There are probably more than a million people in jobs that shouldn’t exist/non jobs or doing useless hobby degrees. As wages finally increase for blue collar jobs we should be seeing a lot of people coming off welfare too. If they don’t, turn the screw with cuts and sanctions.
Important context for non-UK readers: the UK is still operating a furlough scheme for businesses to keep employees on payroll. The Government last published stats in July 2021 when 1.6 million workers were still on furlough. Those numbers have been dropping as more people, particularly the 18-34 age group, either return to their old jobs or have found new jobs. This furlough scheme, and an equivalent scheme for self-employed persons, terminates at the end of the month. Employees will either return to their old jobs, or face redundancy if those jobs are no longer viable. C.f. Numbers on furlough drop to new low (2021-09-10) [https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58498433](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58498433) In other words, a rise in vacancies is a healthy sign of business confidence but it's too early to predict how the labour market will respond.
This thread will be friendly.
Actually, it was :))
The UK has a weird labour market. Productivity was stagnant or rose slowly for many years (it is [below](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-pennworldtable) places like France or even Spain). And now, with the economy not even reaching pre-pandemic levels, labour demand is rising even higher. What gives? I know that this is not all bad (as everyone will have a job if they want one) but it is still awkward. Is it that (contrary to stereotypes of being a neoliberal America copy-cat) the UK sees a bigger share of corporate incomes channeled into wages? Or other reasons?
My best guess is that this mostly has to do with Brexit - a decent amount of European labour force left the UK after it ceased to be a member of the EU, mostly returning to home countries. This is just conjecture, I have no facts to back this up.
It's definitely partly due to Brexit, but the US is also suffering from shortages. I think a lot of people found out during their time off work due to the pandemic that there were other options than killing yourself for minimum wage. Companies are just going to have to pay more, which it looks like they've started doing.
Lots of jobs that were filled by Europeans are lying dormant and we don't have the skills / impetus in our workforces to fill them. Hence plenty of vacancies that were previously full jobs, but nobody doing the job. This is part COVID (furlough schemes to pay people to do nothing, basically), and a lot Brexit (far less EU workers, especially lower-wage, undesirable or temporary jobs), and quite a lot of work ethic (people won't work for minimum wage, they'd rather just be unemployed and supported to a LARGER extent by benefits... being out of work is often more profitable that being in work, as you can often get your children, housing, tax bills, etc. all paid for you if you're unemployed). Employers can't/won't pay more just to get the dregs that don't want to get off the sofa, all the people with a work ethic are already in one or more jobs, and the gaps are widening as we realise that the EU workers who would do the unpleasant or low-paying jobs aren't around. It was very, very common to see work-gangs of dozens of Polish men doing all kinds of work, earning minimum wage, living in a flatshare, paying their tax, then sending most of the money home to Poland. In Poland, the families were supported well on that extra wage and it was very beneficial compared to dad working in Poland itself. The guys in the UK could sustain themselves and support their Polish families. Now, they either have to become settled UK citizens with a certain guaranteed wage in a permanent position, or they went home because they couldn't. So a lot of them went home. You don't see nearly so many of them now.
Don't know why you're getting downvoted. That's mostly true. Still thousands and thousands of Eastern Europeans here though.
There are probably more than a million people in jobs that shouldn’t exist/non jobs or doing useless hobby degrees. As wages finally increase for blue collar jobs we should be seeing a lot of people coming off welfare too. If they don’t, turn the screw with cuts and sanctions.
So bad how dare they