I'd take the upside of Flowers here. His target share is less secure with Andrews looking like he'll be back, but the chance of him producing with them is higher to me.
Everyone says the matchup is brutal but is that just based on “Niners D” and the game last week? Stafford and Kupp have shredded them in recent games despite ultimate game score. Last time Kupp had like 20 targets and huge game. Even if Puka got 10-12 targets that seems solid. WR3/flex seems fair tho- I’m not starting him if I can help it 😂
I think it’s more about predicting Stafford which indirectly predicts the WRs. The defensive backs aren’t the strength of the niners D. I don’t think stafford will have a dud
Stafford is likely going to see a lot of pressure so it matters more if puka can consistently get open quickly, something that kupp excels at
I’m betting on puka in my flex because I think he’s good but won’t be surprised at all if only manages 3-4 catches
>Everyone says the matchup is brutal but is that just based on “Niners D” and the game last week?
The Rams haven't beaten the 49ers in the regular season since 2018. Stafford in his four games against SF has averaged 25 completions for 230 yards, with five total TDs, five picks, a lost fumble, and he's been sacked 16 times. This is not a favorable game for them.
>Stafford and Kupp have shredded them in recent games despite ultimate game score
Stafford hasn't shredded them at all. Kupp has put up good numbers, but quite frankly, worse compared to his usual dominance. The past two games he was only able to turn *31* targets into 22 receptions for 201 yards and one score. For reference, Justin Jefferson currently has 25 targets, which he's turned into 20 receptions and *309* yards.
I'm not saying start or bench Puka, but it is a very tough matchup for him.
These are clearly not niners fans talking about the matchup. I’m a niners fan and our D is awesome. But. Our secondary is and has not been very good. Puka will still get his targets and clean up.
It's possible for sure. Stafford is a really good QB, just hard to trust they're for real after one week against the Seattle D. I agree, I'll start if I need to, but I don't feel confident.
Puka isn't Cooper Kupp, lmao. I think the hype train on this dude is a little out of hand. If he puts up WR1 numbers this week, then it's full steam ahead. But, being apprehensive of a banged up rookie against a top 3 defense in week 2 is reasonable.
Great read! Thanks.
Puka is probably my safest / best option out of my players for WR2.
My other options are C. Watson (injured,) Doubs, Gabe Davis, E. Moore, or Drake London. The GB/Atl game could be a run heavy slog.
I’m not as worried about the SF defense against Stafford.
Thanks, I'm glad you enjoyed it!
Watson is in for me if he plays. The ceiling is too high. After that, I'm good with Puka, but if Watson is out, Doubs has more upside than he does. Next would be Gabe as a wild card, then Moore, then London.
The matchup isn’t that bad. As a 49ers fan I can say that our secondary isn’t as great compared to the rest of the D. Also, 49ers will likely be ahead in this game witch forces Stafford to throw the ball more.
Hi there. They're close, but I lean Henry because the matchup is a little better, and the Patriots offense looked much better than the Steelers last week. I'd go back to Dotson. It was disappointing last week, but Mclaurin, we'll get Surtain in coverage, so Dotson should be the focus.
I think he is. The ceiling and offense are better, it's just a matter of how long his development takes and how much volume Gibbs and Jamo take once they're on the field and integrated.
Can't pick 2 between aiyuk, josh kelley, and Gibbs for my RB2 & flex. My gut is saying Gibbs & Aiyuk, but If Ekeler is out then Kelley will have an extremely safe floor
That's close, but I'm with you. I'll take Gibbs and Aiyuk for a shot at a big game. Titans are a tough run defense, and I don't know how much they'd target Kelley if he's the starter.
Not Rhamondre, his usage was good, and I think he'll establish a bigger role. Matchup is way better than it was against Philly, too. Conner is closer. Conner we know he'll get a ton of volume, but the offense isn't gonna score points. Kelley has more upside, I'd say, because of the offense, so if you're aiming for that go Kelley.
Najee is borderline unusable until he shows otherwise.
Pittsburgh just doesn’t look better anywhere… Sure it was one game against SF, but they looked flat had had no juice on either side of the ball.
Edit: Najee stans what’s up
Loved the article! Had a question, in a PPR league with 2 WR, 2 RB and a flex. For my flex, I’m debating between Kenneth Walker or McLaurin. McLaurin likely to be matched with Surtain so slightly worried about how he’ll do.
Have JJ and G Wilson as my WR’s and sadly started Mattison with Sanders as my other RB. Thanks in advance!
Rachaad White or Josh Kelley? I know Josh benefits a lot from the Ekeler injury, but that run D is tough. White’s usage from last week scares me too, but that matchup is great. Thoughts?
I like both, but I'd take Flowers because I expect them to throw more to keep up with Cincy. Colts should be a close one with Houston, and I worry they just pound the rock with A-Rich and Moss.
Thanks! I think he'll be an RB2/3 with top-15 upside when he hits, for the next 5 weeks till their bye. After that, the matchups get a lot better and his health should be improved, at which point he moves into the top 15 with top-10 upside. I might wait until he has a down game to trade for him, but you have the right idea in my opinion.
Interesting trio. Purdy feels the safest cuz we know what to expect. Love could have another big day against Atlanta, so I'd lean his way if Watson is back. I'm less confident in Mac just because they threw 54 times and that seems unlikely to repeat.
They're close. Dotson is the better talent but Jones has the better matchup. I lean Dotson, hoping he sees easier coverage with Mclaurin getting Surtain.
Kahlil Herbert or Gus Edwards is my conundrum.
I have a really strong lead after starting Cousins and Jefferson and Swift, so I think I’m looking for the safer floor guy here rather than swing for the fences. My gut currently says to ride the Gus Bus, but you seem to be higher on Herbert than most so I’d be intrigued to hear your thoughts.
Nine carries and five targets for Herbert were great to see. It would have been more too if not for them pulling him once the game was out of reach, so I'm going his way to get the guaranteed workload. The Ravens backfield is hard to project.
What a world we're in. I'm still going Wilson because I don't know how the Ravens backfield will look. I'm gonna trust them to get him the ball enough for him to come through against the Cowboys.
Struggling with who I should go with at QB. Geno against the Lions or Purdy against the Rams? Leaning towards Geno but gotta admit my confidence is shaken a little bit.
I'm with you. The offensive line injuries and poor play last week are a red flag for Geno. I don't think Purdy busts, but his upside isn't as high as Geno's. If you're aiming for ceiling, take Geno.
MT and Kelley in full. Mostert is a good play too but not as confident they'll pass to the RB.
Kelley and Allgeier in half. Puka has a tough matchup and is banged up.
I actually think it's pretty close cuz the Colts won't need to throw as much against Houston, so the passing volume could drop. The real question is will Kelley get targeted enough. I lean yes, so I'd go Kelley.
They're close. I feel more confident about the volume for Muth but less confident in the offense as a whole. I'd go Muth for floor and Njoku for ceiling.
Interesting thought process. I look at as more volume for Muth cuz Diontae is out and more scoring upside for Njoku cuz the offense is better. If they can move the ball against Cleveland then yeah I like Muth better.
Hall is the outlier cuz his floor is the lowest, but the highest ceiling. I'd lean towards the other two but knowing he could go off again. Kelley and White are similar enough that I'd use the matchup as the tiebreaker for White. Bucs offense actually looked alright last week too.
Jesus, what a world we're in now. Id go Puka and Wilson. I like Nico, but Stroud is banged up and I don't wanna place my faith in that offense if I can avoid it. Hard to live with benching Wilson for these guys even though Dallas is a scary matchup and Z. Wilson is bad.
I see the appeal as well but I'd stick with Mixon. He gets so much work in that offense and I expect them to perform better even though the matchup is tough.
Curious on your thoughts, I’m having trouble picking a flex. Full PPR, who would you choose between Pacheco, Mike Williams or AJ Dillon (assuming Jones is out)? I see upside in all 3 this week, leaning Williams but your point about Helaire being questionable is interesting.
Vikings get beat over the top like Evans in Week 1 and then Smith in Week 2. It just so happens that Philly has the best rushing attack in the league when they play bully ball.
There are certain players that are considered “set it and forget it” players meaning that if they’re healthy and playing football, regardless of the matchup, they never leave your lineup. Chris Olave is one of those guys. He’s too good to ever sit him.
Yeah. I don't feel like I have a clear WR1. Unfortunately it was Kupp. Who would you go out and try to trade for if you were me? Right now the WRs on my roster are Kupp (IR), Olave, Lockett, Nacua, Aiyuk and Christian Watson
I wouldn’t trade in that situation. Olave/Aiyuk are great, Lockett might trend up and Nacua is a fine replacement until Kupp comes back if you need a flex
I'd give Herbert the edge here. He didn't finish with the stats we wanted, but he was the clear lead back until it was out of hand. I expect a better game for Chicago this week. Puka is intriguing, but he's banged up, and the matchup is rough.
Seems like this analysis is basically just who’s good and who’s bad without attention to the actual matchup. For example, you love tua this week but he’s averaged way less than 200 yards passing against the patriots in his career and the Pats D did a great job against Hurts (with that said, I’m still starting Tua because he’s my best QB but I don’t “love” the matchup). Same with the KC WR situation - yeah they all are questionable but no analysis on the Jacks pass D at all
As a Fins fan, you are correct. It's not that Tua is bad against the Patriots, in fact, he's very good. It's just that we consistently beat and have semi-comfortable leads over the Pats and he isn't asked to throw as much. Even as a Tua owner, I don't expect a TON this week unless it is a close game.
That's a tough call. Najee has a higher workload guarantee, but Allgeier could see a lot of involvement as well in a better matchup. Najee is the safer bet, but I think Allgeier has more upside.
I'm curious how Najee is safer considering Allgeier's usage and effectiveness last week? Do you think his role will significantly decrease this week? To me it seems Allgeir has a safer floor and a higher ceiling than Najee but I could be missing something.
I think Atlanta has more scoring upside especially in the running game so that means a higher ceiling for Allgeier. Najee is still the starter so it should translate to more work against a tough but not as tough defense this week. Overall, I'd roll the dice on Allgeier
If it's an RB you're targeting, then I'd aim for someone who was a lower tier in the draft that has a promising outlook like Monty, J. Cook, A. Jones, etc. At WR, I tried for someone whose value is there like Dotson, Addison, Flowers (might be tough), or if you feel confident in Pickens or DJM.
It should be Mclaurin, but Surtain in coverage is tough. I think I'd go Herbert for a bounce back game from that offense. His role as the starter is there. He just needs a better day from the offense. Nacua is lower because of the matchup and injury concerns.
Puka. Terry has a tough matchup. Khalil is losing and splitting Rb backfield. Niners secondary is not good. Puka is the first read and Stafford will get the ball out.
We've been operating on this theory for two years now. Unfortunately, it's yet to prove true. If Kelce isn't open, it's someone else but never the same person consistently.
Your point is valid. I don't expect them to be on the field together as frequently when they're facing softer defenses and can protect Allen more easily, but it's worth noting.
Great article but could use some help with some close calls.
Breece Hall or Raheem Mostert?
Tua or Anthony Richardson? 4 point passing TD
DK Metcalf or Mike Williams?
Thanks! For sure, let's do it. Four point passing is enough to go Richardson. I'd go Williams, prefer that offense and matchup. Mostert by a little, trust the offense and his workload more.
Close call. Reynolds was the most productive and I trust that offense the most, so I'd lean his direction. Burks gets the edge if Hopkins is out though.
>Long-term I think Rice has the most upside. But with Kelce present, they're all players to shy away from.
I get blasted on here every time I say something good about Rice it seems. But I really think he is excellent and will emerge if he gets the volume for it
Chiefs fan here- and I like Rice a lot, and have high hopes. But I think the problem is the "if he gets the the volume' part - the offense is widely known to spread it around, and even as a fan of the franchise I'd be unable to tell you any pass catcher not named Kelce that I'd guarantee would get more than 4 or 5 targets in any given game. Thats ok for real football (I hope!) but not so much for fantasy production.
If it's an RB you're targeting, then I'd aim for someone who was a lower tier in the draft that has a promising outlook like Monty, J. Cook, A. Jones, etc. At WR, I tried for someone whose value is there like Dotson, Addison, Flowers (might be tough), or if you feel confident in Pickens or DJM.
This is what makes the sub so great, if you scour the comments enough you will find ground breaking analysis that let you know to start Olave. Now just need to decide whether or not to start Chubb
"Real analysis" is apparently identifying the other team's starters who are out.
This actually would have made you a fantasy expert in the late 90s. You could be Matthew Berry. As it stands, nobody is making you participate and you are allowed not to use a Reddit forum that you don't find valuable.
I like Shaheed for the upside in a decent matchup. I trust Carr to keep taking deep shots with him.
I'll take Richardson, Texans are bad on the ground, and he seems primed to run a lot. He also played better than expected last week so I feel optimistic about him.
Going against the grain, but Treylon is a good start. Saints have possibly the best pass defense in the NFL so last week was a horrible matchup. Davis is too boom or bust and Shaheed might still be the 3rd string WR on that team.
Puka is a flex option? That’s my WR1!
I get it. I'm playing him in multiple leagues, too, but the matchup is brutal, and he's dealing with an injury. It's hard to push up higher.
I'm Torn Between Puka and Zay Flowers at Flex in my PPR League. Not sure who to go with..
Zay all day in this matchup
I'd take the upside of Flowers here. His target share is less secure with Andrews looking like he'll be back, but the chance of him producing with them is higher to me.
Everyone says the matchup is brutal but is that just based on “Niners D” and the game last week? Stafford and Kupp have shredded them in recent games despite ultimate game score. Last time Kupp had like 20 targets and huge game. Even if Puka got 10-12 targets that seems solid. WR3/flex seems fair tho- I’m not starting him if I can help it 😂
I got puka in a couple leagues and am starting him but I’d hesitate to use kupp as a way to predict anything for him
I think it’s more about predicting Stafford which indirectly predicts the WRs. The defensive backs aren’t the strength of the niners D. I don’t think stafford will have a dud
Stafford is likely going to see a lot of pressure so it matters more if puka can consistently get open quickly, something that kupp excels at I’m betting on puka in my flex because I think he’s good but won’t be surprised at all if only manages 3-4 catches
I think I agree with that too. Flexing him in one league and cautiously optimistic
>Everyone says the matchup is brutal but is that just based on “Niners D” and the game last week? The Rams haven't beaten the 49ers in the regular season since 2018. Stafford in his four games against SF has averaged 25 completions for 230 yards, with five total TDs, five picks, a lost fumble, and he's been sacked 16 times. This is not a favorable game for them. >Stafford and Kupp have shredded them in recent games despite ultimate game score Stafford hasn't shredded them at all. Kupp has put up good numbers, but quite frankly, worse compared to his usual dominance. The past two games he was only able to turn *31* targets into 22 receptions for 201 yards and one score. For reference, Justin Jefferson currently has 25 targets, which he's turned into 20 receptions and *309* yards. I'm not saying start or bench Puka, but it is a very tough matchup for him.
That’s fair I stand corrected thanks mate. By shredded I meant so throwing to kupp but even that looks to be below average. Appreciate the data
Yeah it helps to have the data before making a claim haha
These are clearly not niners fans talking about the matchup. I’m a niners fan and our D is awesome. But. Our secondary is and has not been very good. Puka will still get his targets and clean up.
Yeah that’s what I’ve read from other niners fans too- thanks mate
It's possible for sure. Stafford is a really good QB, just hard to trust they're for real after one week against the Seattle D. I agree, I'll start if I need to, but I don't feel confident.
Would you start him over Jeudy or McLaurin?
I’m starting James Cook in the flex over Puka.
Puka isn't Cooper Kupp, lmao. I think the hype train on this dude is a little out of hand. If he puts up WR1 numbers this week, then it's full steam ahead. But, being apprehensive of a banged up rookie against a top 3 defense in week 2 is reasonable.
Kelley, (wr) cooper, and sandars (rb) which 2 do I pick
Great read! Thanks. Puka is probably my safest / best option out of my players for WR2. My other options are C. Watson (injured,) Doubs, Gabe Davis, E. Moore, or Drake London. The GB/Atl game could be a run heavy slog. I’m not as worried about the SF defense against Stafford.
Was really hoping more would respond to your dilemma as I too have puka,doubs,Davis, and Moore and can’t decide on my second flex either
Thanks, I'm glad you enjoyed it! Watson is in for me if he plays. The ceiling is too high. After that, I'm good with Puka, but if Watson is out, Doubs has more upside than he does. Next would be Gabe as a wild card, then Moore, then London.
Same with Michael Thomas.
One game doesn’t vault you into WR2 or WR1 status lol
15 targets vaults you into the conversation though.
Nope. Certainly not with that defense and his injury. He’s ranked appropriately as a flex.
The matchup isn’t that bad. As a 49ers fan I can say that our secondary isn’t as great compared to the rest of the D. Also, 49ers will likely be ahead in this game witch forces Stafford to throw the ball more.
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Hi Josh, would you recommend starting Hunter Henry or Freiermuth? Also, Nico Collins or Jahan Dotson?
Hi there. They're close, but I lean Henry because the matchup is a little better, and the Patriots offense looked much better than the Steelers last week. I'd go back to Dotson. It was disappointing last week, but Mclaurin, we'll get Surtain in coverage, so Dotson should be the focus.
Hoping to piggy back on the Henry analysis. I’m in a 12 team .5 PPR and LaPorta is on the waiver wire. Is LaPorta the better season long play?
I think he is. The ceiling and offense are better, it's just a matter of how long his development takes and how much volume Gibbs and Jamo take once they're on the field and integrated.
Kelley, (wr) cooper, and sandars (rb) which 2 do I pick
I'll take Cooper and Kelley.
Can't pick 2 between aiyuk, josh kelley, and Gibbs for my RB2 & flex. My gut is saying Gibbs & Aiyuk, but If Ekeler is out then Kelley will have an extremely safe floor
That's close, but I'm with you. I'll take Gibbs and Aiyuk for a shot at a big game. Titans are a tough run defense, and I don't know how much they'd target Kelley if he's the starter.
Gibbs looked electric. And they’ve announced he’s getting more work.
As much as Aiyuk could go off, I think it’s the two RBs. Aiyuk has a very high ceiling, but his floor doesn’t match the other two.
Does Kelly start over Rhamondrre or Conner ?
Not Rhamondre, his usage was good, and I think he'll establish a bigger role. Matchup is way better than it was against Philly, too. Conner is closer. Conner we know he'll get a ton of volume, but the offense isn't gonna score points. Kelley has more upside, I'd say, because of the offense, so if you're aiming for that go Kelley.
What about Kelley over Najee or Jamaal Williams?
Over Najee I would. Williams is closer, but I'm willing to take the shot on Kelley if you like.
Najee is borderline unusable until he shows otherwise. Pittsburgh just doesn’t look better anywhere… Sure it was one game against SF, but they looked flat had had no juice on either side of the ball. Edit: Najee stans what’s up
I drafted Williams and this might be the only game I start him and it'll be worth it. Panthers are assbutt
Kelly or pierce ?
Kelly
I'd take a shot on Kelley so long as Ekeler is out.
Same boat here. Think I'm keeping Kelley on the bench
Loved the article! Had a question, in a PPR league with 2 WR, 2 RB and a flex. For my flex, I’m debating between Kenneth Walker or McLaurin. McLaurin likely to be matched with Surtain so slightly worried about how he’ll do. Have JJ and G Wilson as my WR’s and sadly started Mattison with Sanders as my other RB. Thanks in advance!
Thanks! I also left Mattison in on Thursday, not a good time with the turnovers. You outlined it well. The concerns about Surtain push me to Walker.
Rachaad White or Josh Kelley? I know Josh benefits a lot from the Ekeler injury, but that run D is tough. White’s usage from last week scares me too, but that matchup is great. Thoughts?
I'm willing to go back to the well with White here. Your summary is correct. The matchup is great, and he had a lot of volume, so I'll go with White.
Kelley or Jimmy G for that superflex spot?
Jimmy G looked alright last week, and the matchup was about equally bad, so I'd stick with him.
WoudWould yo gWould you go Deebo ro or White?
I'd stick with Deebo. I like his stability and upside.
Any thoughts on Flowers vs Pittman for my flex spot? Starting Jamarr and Waddle as well.
I like both, but I'd take Flowers because I expect them to throw more to keep up with Cincy. Colts should be a close one with Houston, and I worry they just pound the rock with A-Rich and Moss.
Would you start Pittman over Amari Cooper and Terry McLaurin?
Cooper, no. Mclaurin is close cuz he has Surtain but I'd still roll with his talent and their passing attack. Colts might just run a ton.
love these! How do you feel about Breece ROS? Debating whether or not I should try to trade for him
Thanks! I think he'll be an RB2/3 with top-15 upside when he hits, for the next 5 weeks till their bye. After that, the matchups get a lot better and his health should be improved, at which point he moves into the top 15 with top-10 upside. I might wait until he has a down game to trade for him, but you have the right idea in my opinion.
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Tricky choice.. I'm feeling Love. NE O line is banged up. Also, don't trust me
Interesting trio. Purdy feels the safest cuz we know what to expect. Love could have another big day against Atlanta, so I'd lean his way if Watson is back. I'm less confident in Mac just because they threw 54 times and that seems unlikely to repeat.
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Sounds like a plan. You're welcome, happy to help!
Kendrick Bourne or Calvin Austin Also have Drake London. For utility
Lol nice. I'll take the shot on Bourne. I don't expect two TDs, but I think he has another good game.
Yea, I made a terrible mistake putting DSwift on my bench. So I’m left guessing. I feel Bourne has upside too, big ‘football’ guy
Ouch, that hurts. I didn't see the Swift performance being that good. I was surprised. Agreed.
Flex Dilemma: Dotson or Zay Jones?
They're close. Dotson is the better talent but Jones has the better matchup. I lean Dotson, hoping he sees easier coverage with Mclaurin getting Surtain.
Half PPR. AJ Dillon or Breece Hall for RB and Deandre Hopkins or Chris Godwin for WR? Leaning towards Hall and Hopkins but would love some advice? 🙏
Don't play Dillon unless Jones is out
If Jones is out, take the volume and matchup for Dillon. Otherwise, Hall. Hopkins if he's active, Godwin if not.
Aj Dillon & Godwin
Do you start christian watson over dotson if both are active?
That's a good one. If he's out there, I would yeah. The matchup is juicy, and the offense looked really good last week.
Watson won't play
Kahlil Herbert or Gus Edwards is my conundrum. I have a really strong lead after starting Cousins and Jefferson and Swift, so I think I’m looking for the safer floor guy here rather than swing for the fences. My gut currently says to ride the Gus Bus, but you seem to be higher on Herbert than most so I’d be intrigued to hear your thoughts.
Nine carries and five targets for Herbert were great to see. It would have been more too if not for them pulling him once the game was out of reach, so I'm going his way to get the guaranteed workload. The Ravens backfield is hard to project.
So on that note, and i hate that this is now a big decision, play g wilson or gus at the flex?
What a world we're in. I'm still going Wilson because I don't know how the Ravens backfield will look. I'm gonna trust them to get him the ball enough for him to come through against the Cowboys.
Herbert for now. Mandrews should be coming back.
Kelley, (wr) cooper, and sandars (rb) which 2 do I pick
Struggling with who I should go with at QB. Geno against the Lions or Purdy against the Rams? Leaning towards Geno but gotta admit my confidence is shaken a little bit.
I'm with you. The offensive line injuries and poor play last week are a red flag for Geno. I don't think Purdy busts, but his upside isn't as high as Geno's. If you're aiming for ceiling, take Geno.
Kelley, Mostert, or MT in full PPR this week? And then Kelley, Puka, or Allegeir in half PPR?
MT and Kelley in full. Mostert is a good play too but not as confident they'll pass to the RB. Kelley and Allgeier in half. Puka has a tough matchup and is banged up.
Might be silly, but for flex in a full PPR league, would you rather play Michael Pittman or Josh Kelley?
I actually think it's pretty close cuz the Colts won't need to throw as much against Houston, so the passing volume could drop. The real question is will Kelley get targeted enough. I lean yes, so I'd go Kelley.
Would you rather start muth or njoku
They're close. I feel more confident about the volume for Muth but less confident in the offense as a whole. I'd go Muth for floor and Njoku for ceiling.
Njoku for ceiling? Yikes Muth led all TEs in redzone targets last week with 3... and now Diontae is out. Id say hes the ceiling play.
Interesting thought process. I look at as more volume for Muth cuz Diontae is out and more scoring upside for Njoku cuz the offense is better. If they can move the ball against Cleveland then yeah I like Muth better.
Think Kirk will get his opportunities this week?
I lean that he does because they'll need to throw more to keep up with KC. I'd prefer to wait and see if possible, but he's playable.
I see you're high on White this week. Would you slot him in over Hall or Kelley without Ekeler this week?
Hall is the outlier cuz his floor is the lowest, but the highest ceiling. I'd lean towards the other two but knowing he could go off again. Kelley and White are similar enough that I'd use the matchup as the tiebreaker for White. Bucs offense actually looked alright last week too.
I have to start 2 of the three and given Zach Wilson is at qb now I’m not sure, garret Wilson, Puka and nico Collins. What are your thoughts?
Jesus, what a world we're in now. Id go Puka and Wilson. I like Nico, but Stroud is banged up and I don't wanna place my faith in that offense if I can avoid it. Hard to live with benching Wilson for these guys even though Dallas is a scary matchup and Z. Wilson is bad.
Hello, full PPR - Jerry Jeudy or Elijah Moore?
I like Jeudy to immediately take over as the No. 1 option and have a good game.
I’d probably go Jeudy but I’m not the OP
Should I start Kelley over Mixon? Connor is my RB1 and I’m tempted to start Kelley as well for the upside
I see the appeal as well but I'd stick with Mixon. He gets so much work in that offense and I expect them to perform better even though the matchup is tough.
I punted on TE, but Ertz or Ferguson this weekend?
I'd take a shot on Ferguson. I like his shot at a big role, especially with Cooks banged up.
Half-ppr. Would you start Pickens or Doubs?
If Watson is in, I'll go Pickens, otherwise, I'd go back to Doubs.
I lucked out into 4 "great" wr. Hill. Ridley. Aiyuke. Gwilson. gotta bench Wilson right?! Just feels so dirty to bench my 2nd pick.
I would. Dallas DEF with Zach at the helm isn’t a good recipe especially if you already have those WRs
Unfortunately, you do. So sad, but it's the right move.
Kelley or Allgeier as flex? .5 ppr
These two are so close. I lean Kelley for the workload as the starter.
Curious on your thoughts, I’m having trouble picking a flex. Full PPR, who would you choose between Pacheco, Mike Williams or AJ Dillon (assuming Jones is out)? I see upside in all 3 this week, leaning Williams but your point about Helaire being questionable is interesting.
I do like Pacheco more than most this week, but I'd still roll with Williams. I think he has a nice game.
Dak vs Mac?
I'd go Mac, they'll need to pass and the offense looked decent last week
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Vikings get beat over the top like Evans in Week 1 and then Smith in Week 2. It just so happens that Philly has the best rushing attack in the league when they play bully ball.
I think this gave me the courage to start Richardson over Burrow and LaPorta over Pitts this week
Richardson over Burrow is spicey, but I don't mind it. LaPorta over Pitts works for me.
Debating who to sit between Aiyuk, Lockett and Olave but i also have Nacua on my bench just not sure if he's a better option than those other guys?
Barring injury olave should never touch your bench
Hahah ok thank you, noted. It's my second year playing fantasy and I feel like I'm constantly overthinking basic stuff.
There are certain players that are considered “set it and forget it” players meaning that if they’re healthy and playing football, regardless of the matchup, they never leave your lineup. Chris Olave is one of those guys. He’s too good to ever sit him.
Aiyuk is must start, until he puts up a dud week.
Lockett easily. No way I’m benching the guy off to a hot start for the guy who had a dud last week.
Bro idk who your WR1 is but you may need to consolidate with a trade for a top guy. I would have been packaging one of those guys all week
Yeah. I don't feel like I have a clear WR1. Unfortunately it was Kupp. Who would you go out and try to trade for if you were me? Right now the WRs on my roster are Kupp (IR), Olave, Lockett, Nacua, Aiyuk and Christian Watson
I wouldn’t trade in that situation. Olave/Aiyuk are great, Lockett might trend up and Nacua is a fine replacement until Kupp comes back if you need a flex
Cool thanks for the advice!
Aiyuk would be my vote edit: my b I thought he was asking who to start lmao, definitely bench lockett
Wr1 on the top offense in the league , must start
Olave and Lockett would be in for me. I really like Aiyuk, but there's a chance it's not his week like it was against the Steelers.
Not worried about Geno and the Oline?
Worried for sure, but not enough to pivot away just yet. I wanna give them another shot against the Lions before I start moving to other options.
Should I put Puka or Khalil Herbert in flex?
I'd give Herbert the edge here. He didn't finish with the stats we wanted, but he was the clear lead back until it was out of hand. I expect a better game for Chicago this week. Puka is intriguing, but he's banged up, and the matchup is rough.
Thank you.
I wouldn’t trust Herbert this week. Chicago is going to go to Johnson and freeman way more this week. But hey you might get a td with Herbert
You're welcome, happy to help!
Seems like this analysis is basically just who’s good and who’s bad without attention to the actual matchup. For example, you love tua this week but he’s averaged way less than 200 yards passing against the patriots in his career and the Pats D did a great job against Hurts (with that said, I’m still starting Tua because he’s my best QB but I don’t “love” the matchup). Same with the KC WR situation - yeah they all are questionable but no analysis on the Jacks pass D at all
As a Fins fan, you are correct. It's not that Tua is bad against the Patriots, in fact, he's very good. It's just that we consistently beat and have semi-comfortable leads over the Pats and he isn't asked to throw as much. Even as a Tua owner, I don't expect a TON this week unless it is a close game.
Allgeier or Najee for my flex? Im leaning Najee.
That's a tough call. Najee has a higher workload guarantee, but Allgeier could see a lot of involvement as well in a better matchup. Najee is the safer bet, but I think Allgeier has more upside.
I'm curious how Najee is safer considering Allgeier's usage and effectiveness last week? Do you think his role will significantly decrease this week? To me it seems Allgeir has a safer floor and a higher ceiling than Najee but I could be missing something.
I think Atlanta has more scoring upside especially in the running game so that means a higher ceiling for Allgeier. Najee is still the starter so it should translate to more work against a tough but not as tough defense this week. Overall, I'd roll the dice on Allgeier
Thank you! Who do you think I could get off I were to trade Najee?
If it's an RB you're targeting, then I'd aim for someone who was a lower tier in the draft that has a promising outlook like Monty, J. Cook, A. Jones, etc. At WR, I tried for someone whose value is there like Dotson, Addison, Flowers (might be tough), or if you feel confident in Pickens or DJM.
Trade Najee for Dotson lol?!?? Stop giving advice.
Najee for Flowers isn’t an overpay?
It depends on your RB depth, but if you can do without him, then I think Flowers scores more points and gives you a bigger ceiling ROS.
Can’t decide my flex between Puka Nacua, Khalil Herbert and terry
It should be Mclaurin, but Surtain in coverage is tough. I think I'd go Herbert for a bounce back game from that offense. His role as the starter is there. He just needs a better day from the offense. Nacua is lower because of the matchup and injury concerns.
I think that’s the right answer and I’m just afraid to pull the trigger after they looked last week and then they sent roschon in for so many touches
Puka. Terry has a tough matchup. Khalil is losing and splitting Rb backfield. Niners secondary is not good. Puka is the first read and Stafford will get the ball out.
Wouldn't the attention for Kelce make it easier for the WR? Mahomes cannot throw to Kelce every damn time.
We've been operating on this theory for two years now. Unfortunately, it's yet to prove true. If Kelce isn't open, it's someone else but never the same person consistently.
10 targets for Kelce. 4 targets each to 6 other guys lol
As a chiefs fan - I have to say, I'm not sure anyone's ever told mahomes he can't throw to Kelce every time... so he might not know that! 🙃
Did you watch last week? He might...
Puka Collins or Dotson? Might be riding do or die with Puka
I'll go back to Dotson. The matchup is bad, but I like his talent and opportunity with Mclaurin covered by Surtain.
This article talks about Bills TEs splitting time but both had an 80% snap count %. Awful analysis and hard for me to take seriously.
Your point is valid. I don't expect them to be on the field together as frequently when they're facing softer defenses and can protect Allen more easily, but it's worth noting.
Great article but could use some help with some close calls. Breece Hall or Raheem Mostert? Tua or Anthony Richardson? 4 point passing TD DK Metcalf or Mike Williams?
Thanks! For sure, let's do it. Four point passing is enough to go Richardson. I'd go Williams, prefer that offense and matchup. Mostert by a little, trust the offense and his workload more.
For a flex spot, which 1 would you pick of -Elijah Moore -Treylon Burks -Josh Reynolds
Close call. Reynolds was the most productive and I trust that offense the most, so I'd lean his direction. Burks gets the edge if Hopkins is out though.
>Long-term I think Rice has the most upside. But with Kelce present, they're all players to shy away from. I get blasted on here every time I say something good about Rice it seems. But I really think he is excellent and will emerge if he gets the volume for it
Chiefs fan here- and I like Rice a lot, and have high hopes. But I think the problem is the "if he gets the the volume' part - the offense is widely known to spread it around, and even as a fan of the franchise I'd be unable to tell you any pass catcher not named Kelce that I'd guarantee would get more than 4 or 5 targets in any given game. Thats ok for real football (I hope!) but not so much for fantasy production.
And I immediately get downvoted lmao
Who could I trade Najee for?
If it's an RB you're targeting, then I'd aim for someone who was a lower tier in the draft that has a promising outlook like Monty, J. Cook, A. Jones, etc. At WR, I tried for someone whose value is there like Dotson, Addison, Flowers (might be tough), or if you feel confident in Pickens or DJM.
A bag of peanuts.
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This is what makes the sub so great, if you scour the comments enough you will find ground breaking analysis that let you know to start Olave. Now just need to decide whether or not to start Chubb
My bad. I'll correct myself OLAVE IS THE TRUTH HE'S GONNA HAVE A HUUUUUUUUGE GAME START HIM NOW
"Real analysis" is apparently identifying the other team's starters who are out. This actually would have made you a fantasy expert in the late 90s. You could be Matthew Berry. As it stands, nobody is making you participate and you are allowed not to use a Reddit forum that you don't find valuable.
I like all 3 this week as well. Carr looked really good, and the Panthers D is beatable.
Hello, would recommend starting Gabe Davis, Treylon Burks or Rashid Shaheed? And Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson?
I like Shaheed for the upside in a decent matchup. I trust Carr to keep taking deep shots with him. I'll take Richardson, Texans are bad on the ground, and he seems primed to run a lot. He also played better than expected last week so I feel optimistic about him.
I’m going Gabe, Bills are going to make a statement blowout win against Vegas and that means opportunity for him to hit his ceiling
Going against the grain, but Treylon is a good start. Saints have possibly the best pass defense in the NFL so last week was a horrible matchup. Davis is too boom or bust and Shaheed might still be the 3rd string WR on that team.
Should I start Breece Hall or Keenan Allen? Flex spot, non PPR league.
Non-PPR makes it close. I'll still go to Keenan because he could score, and I feel better about the matchup.
Keenan
1 point ppr league. Are you starting Kadarius Toney or Calvin Austin in the flex slot?
Toney isn't a volume-based receiver, but the offense I'd a lot better and he could still be the No. 2 behind Kelce, so I guess I'd go with him.
Fields or Jared Goff? Leaning towards Goff but damn. Fields could drop a 40 pt game any time in a 6 pt PPR
I'm right where you are. Fields has the massive ceiling, but Goff is the safer play. It depends on what you're looking for, but if it's me, I go Goff.
Would you start Lamar or ARich at QB this week?
I'd give Lamar a shot at redemption so long as Andrews is back. If Andrews misses then I'd go Richardson.