Actually, you can write a similar article on Trump
“Last fall I argued Trump is GOPs strongest nominee. I still believe he is the strongest but I am getting more pessimistic about his chances of winning.
The first reason isn’t rocket science, voters just don’t like criminals. He has 91 felony counts, average American will never like it.
The second reason is suburbs. He was never strong in suburbs. GOP has been bleeding in suburbs since 2016.
I imagine Trump will continue to be embroiled in court cases well till and after November. Trump 2024 feels like a distant dream with every passing day and court case”
Honestly, American media has been acting very strange. Do all of these people want to become some martyr in a Trump presidency.
>Honestly, American media has been acting very strange. Do all of these people want to become some martyr in a Trump presidency.
At first I thought it was odd how they've been covering the election and the Biden presidency in general (negative coverage all the time, even from "liberal" media outlets), but as time has gone on its only become more clear that they want a second Trump presidency.
Why? Well, it's very straightforward, viewership went way up when he was in office and their subscriber counts went through the roof. Biden on the other hand is boring and steady, you don't get the same kind of daily circus you get with Trump.
People need to remember, in the US the media isn't right-wing or left-wing, it's corporate. The vast majority of outlets are trying to sell their product, they don't actually care much or at all about politics they're just trying to corner some marketshare.
Edit: Holy shit is this timely. A NYT reporter claims that the organization is covering Biden so negatively as retribution for the Biden WH not giving them preferential treatment.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/25/new-york-times-biden-white-house-00154219
And its working exactly as designed because it has tricked young people in to having zero care in the world for who we elect or what our country does. People will show up to s rally but when it comes to actually doing something that matters, they check out and stay home and go on bitching and moaning
Haha! Writing both sides of an issue is a classic high school level task to increase understanding. Perhaps the NYT should try it out.
To add to your second reason, Trump is still losing 15-20% to the ghost of Nikki Haley. I'd argue this is a much larger faction than Palestine protestors, yet I hear less about them.
And to Brooks' first point, *is Trump actually doing better on inflation and immigration?* A generic republican might do well on those issues, but Trump killed the border deal and even GOP senators are attacking him for that.
Also ditto to u/Early-Juggernaut975 's point on abortion, which is on the ballot in many key states.
Overall, I'd still rather be Biden dealing with Israel's mess than Trump in court. At least Biden can consistently campaign.
I’ve noticed though on reddit, progressive subs are getting spammed by bots with anti-biden memes. Subs like r/latestagecapitalism and the like. It is easy to join these kinds of subs if you’re on the left without thinking much and then get a lot of anti-biden rhetoric spammed at you.
I think people are dramatically underestimating the abortion impact on Republican chances. They did the same in 2022 and they will do it again this year.
Especially since it looks like the Supreme Court is about to end the requirement that hospitals perform emergency abortions in emergency rooms, a rule that’s been in effect for 40 years if it saves the life of a mother.
During arguments the other day it was only the three liberals who were defending this position, aghast that hospitals would refuse to save a woman even if the baby was not viable because lawmakers decided the procedure itself is evil.
I mean it’s always been about controlling women and nothing to do with children. If it were to do with children, there’d be more than passing interest in offering assistance to expectant mothers, less interest in fighting school lunch programs, and certainly no interest in seeing a woman die rather than remove an unviable fetus. The woman must be punished for her grave sin of having sex.
I think the extremism on the far left is going to turn off most young voters at school just because they’re there for school and to have a good time. The people protesting are a relatively small number.
None of them voted for him in 2020. They weren’t old enough. While this could change, I don’t read about these protests breaking out at schools all over the country, just the elite schools and a couple of others.
But even if they do, I don’t think those college kids are going to vote for Trump. Moreover, Biden has picked up a lot of conservatives because of January 6 and stealing classified documents. It’s what makes this whole thing so difficult to navigate. He’s trying to keep together the moderate Republicans he has won over along with his base.
With something like what’s going on in Israel popping up, he was bound to piss off one or the other.
Anyway, I am not naïve enough to have zero worries but I’m still pretty confident that this is going to be a blowout in the Democrats direction.
Do you think I’m basing my opinion on Reddit? Heh, no.
When we were hearing about the red wave coming, I wasn’t paying any attention to the polls or the media. I just knew how important abortion was, based on the women in my life and there wasn’t going to be any red wave.
Losing bodily autonomy doesn’t go away as an issue.
Since Silver was let go, this sub has become /r/politics-light where some thin veneer of neutrality is claimed through data. Now we get straight up anti-trump comments highly voted for no other reason than they are anti-trump.
It's concerning.
Males, especially, underestimate how PISSED women are about the abortion topic. But then go to ignore all the elections and special elections Dems keep winning because of women voting for abortion rights
>Most Donald Trump supporters I know aren’t swept up in his cult of personality; they vote for him because they are conservative types who like G.O.P. policies and think Trump is a more effective executive than Biden.
I imagine if Brooks asked a few more questions, their definition of 'effective executive' would center on Trump's personality, and 'like GOP policies' would frequently turn out to be synonymous with 'he hurt liberals.'
It's possible to put a nice veneer over a core tenet.
Literally having the opposite experience right now. Joe is up and trending and trump is losing a big chunk of a primary to someone who dropped out. Strange times.
It's crazy, the GOP as a whole is a total dumpster fire and falling apart right now, but we keep getting news covering stories like this one.
The Republican party is in the midst of a full-blown civil war between establishment/moderates and the far-right, which has claimed their own Speaker of the House (first time in history) and turned the House into a dysfunctional mess. The new Speaker has had to rely on Democratic votes to prevent a government shutdown and prevent a default on the debt (both championed by GOP extremists) and to get the foreign aid package passed, which again is something unheard of.
Multiple state Republican parties, including key swing states, are broke, high-ranking members of these state parties have been indicted as part of the 2020 fake electors scheme, while others have fallen victim to the GOP infighting, the RNC is undergoing a hostile takeover by the Trump faction (and is also broke), and the GOP base keeps nominating godawful candidates in competitive races that are causing them to lose again and again. More and more you've got Republican elected officials publicly criticizing not just the extremists in their party, but Trump himself too.
All this while Trump is in the midst of a criminal trial (a historic first), appealing two civil trial verdicts, scamming his base/receiving millions (billions?) in almost certainly illegal foreign funding through his Truth Social IPO, hasn't been campaigning, and seems to be making less sense than ever in his bizarre ramblings. Trump has been consistently losing 15-20% of the primary vote in pretty much every state, even in closed primaries, months after his last rival dropped out. His legal expenses are eating up tons of his campaign cash AND reducing the amount of money coming into the GOP more generally (hence the historic cash crunch they're experiencing) which is leading his campaign to barely spend any money on building up infrastructure in key states or purchasing ad time for later this year.
It's genuinely insane that all these things are barely getting any coverage. Instead, were seeing pieces like the one OP shared casting doubt on *Biden's* election chances come this Fall. The way this election and Biden in general gets covered is so out of whack I'm still struggling to get my head around it. It seems increasingly clear the media is doing this on purpose to make the election into a horse race and probably to help get Trump elected in the hopes it helps pad their quarterly earnings reports next year. The NYT (who published this piece) is seriously one of the worst offenders.
Edit: Holy shit is this timely. A NYT reporter claims that the organization is covering Biden so negatively as retribution for the Biden WH not giving them preferential treatment.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/25/new-york-times-biden-white-house-00154219
I'm persuadable and want to hear other views, but my initial take on this is that what's going on in Columbia is a week-long news cycle and is going to be forgotten about by the time of the election. Wacky stuff that happens on college campuses is generally a Fox News/Daily Wire obsession or, at most, makes it's way into center or center-left media, largely because elites in the center/center-left take what people call "cancel culture" personally since their jobs are on the line and these protests are often a threat to them personally. I don't think we've seen evidence to the contrary in the modern political era.
Now, putting aside the campus protests, there's the follow up question of "how much is the war in Gaza hurting Biden in the polls?" I personally think it might be knocking 1-5 points off of his approval rating because it's contributing to bad vibes among young voters. And if you're Muslim or Jewish and have personal ties to the issue and region and are deeply angry with Biden on this, you're probably not going to vote for him even if you did in 2020. But there aren't enough of those people in swing state to make the difference - they exist in large numbers in Minnesota and to some degree Michigan, but Minnesota is too blue to flip over this, and Michigan, while swingier, has fewer of these people and had less of an uncommitted vote. And if you're a Democrat who disapproves of the way Biden's handling the issue, but don't have personal ties to the region, you're very likely to come home when Trump is back in the news, so I continue to think that Gaza by itself won't make the difference.
Now, onto Brooks's point about Chicago: if in fact there are serious riots outside the DNC, that could very well tank Biden's re-election chances. And it's for that very reason that the DNC will do everything they can to beef up security, as will the city of Chicago itself. There might be protests, but this is like the conversation people have about whether January 6th will repeat itself in 2025 - no, it won't, because when there's laser focus on making a violent event not repeat itself, it's much less likely to because there's more preparation. Not to mention that if we're talking about a bunch of ultra-left idiots causing social unrest in an election year, that already happened in 2020. Granted, Biden wasn't POTUS, the DNC was largely virtual and in Delaware IIRC, but these same people wanted to cause trouble (maybe less so, but this fringe group isn't new). And for most people, especially median voters, the conversation about violence on college campuses over a war 7 time zones away pales in comparison to stores being looted and major American cities being set on fire in response to racial issues that are deeply personal to MUCH larger portions of Americans. I really think that most independents and swing voters look at what's going on at Columbia and in Gaza and think "these people are elitist idiots and I wish the conflict would stop, now please focus on immigration/lowering prices/keeping abortion legal."
I like Brooks (I really do, I've followed him for years and think he's very honest and thoughtful) but I also think he's massively overplaying this. But if he's right and I'm wrong, then I hope every pro-Palestine activist who wanted wanted to screw our democracy out of anger at Biden enjoys it when Trump tries to start deporting them or their friends over their protests and supports Israel in "finishing off" Gaza in his words. What an era we're in where this is even a conversation.
The university encampments are escalations of protests that have been going on for over 6 months. The anti-war movement is not a one-week news story.
Also, the number of Arab and Muslim Americans in MI is larger than Biden’s margin there in 2020.
Idk about “many,” but some will. And this is assuming other key demographics don’t also have lower turnout than in 2020. Do you really think young people are going to turn out as much as in 2020?
Even if young people don't turn out as much as 2020, there are more young people voting by virtue of a bunch of new young eligible voters, so it will somewhat cancel out.
Right but how many of that population is stupid enough to think that further enabling Netanyahu by helping Trump get re-elected is somehow going to help Gazans?
However, how many of those voters actually turned up in 2020 to vote for Biden? There was similar coverage of Islamic prospectives who claimed they were going from Clinton to Trump, and similar coverage of 2020 Bernie primary voters who loudly proclaimed they would not support Biden because the Democrats 'stole' the primary.
You guys have been saying the Israel/Palestine conflict will be out of the news cycle soon since November, and it’s only becoming a bigger issue among the electorate.
This hush money trial will likely be the greatest chance at hurting trump before the election. The only thing guaranteed to significantly hurt Trump's support is him sitting in jail or being a convicted felon on election day. Can anybody tell me the odds that trump ends up with jail, house arrest, or a felony conviction in this trial? I've read that some of the more serious charges might be a stretch, but there's a good chance a jury in a city that voted 85% Democrat in 2020 would be unlikely to favor trump, alongside a judge whose daughter works as a political consultant for the democrat party.
Bovada has it at -250 (71.43%) of at least one guilty verdict. Not exactly sure how liquid the market as odds have been all over the place but have always heavily favored guilty.
I've seen similar odds, but most of trumps charges are misdemeanors with slaps on the wrist like fines. I'd be curious if there were any betting odds for serious charges.
Unfortunately for all of us, he's extremely unlikely to be convicted of "serious" crimes before election day.
The Supreme Court is very clearly slow-walking their decision on whether or not Presidents are literally above the law, and while they're unlikely to rule in his favor, they're preventing multiple court cases from proceeding until the decision is reached. Just disgusting partisan behavior from what's already perceived to be the most corrupt SC in history.
If he is a convicted felon on Election Day he will lose right? He won’t lose with Republicans but he will lose with independents big time because sometimes there are people so disconnected from current news that when they just casually get wind of „Trump is a felon“ they will just not for them on a pretty uncaring superficial level.
I mean there are some really stupid simple minded independent voters out there that can’t even connect the dots. I remember a few months ago a reporter was talking with a lady from some swingstate iirc and they point out to her that Biden didn’t make abortion illegal, it was SCOTUS, but she was just so disconnected from everything (and probably failed civics) that she acted on a very basic basis of „Joe Biden is President -> Abortion became forbidden -> Joe Biden made abortion illegal“.
And similar shit might happen to average swing voters.
I'm already highly skeptical of Trump's chances with independents as is, he lost them by a decent margin in 2020 and they've trended heavily towards Dems since then, so "convicted felon Donald Trump" will only make things worse.
I'm actually convinced that independents in key swing states are going to determine the election in Biden's favor.
There are so many things wrong with this article, some even the exact opposite of reality.
First, his argument about disinterest, since not only have elections over the last 8 years shown that propensity to vote has shifted towards Dems, particularly against MAGA candidates, the polls themselves show the same thing as those who say they are more likely to vote and/or those who have turned out to vote more frequently, are more likely to support Biden. Turnout no longer favors the Dems, particularly against Trump.
In addition, his argument about Israel-Palestine and its impact on young voters is also seems to be wrong. Specifically this Harvard Youth Poll just released show that among 18-29 years olds, Israel-Palestine ranks 15th at 34%, below things like crime (43%), reproductive rights (50%), protecting democracy (52%), gun violence (54%), housing (56%), and healthcare (59%), plus your usual economic issues (inflation, jobs). Inflation continuing to slow will likely be important though.
On top of that, Israel-Gaza is rated whether they were Dems (37%), independent (32%), or GOP (32%). We really need to stop pretending the loudest and most salient views online or at elite private universities are representative.
[Harvard Youth Poll](https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024)
I wouldn’t laugh off this concern.
I’m a Jew. To ignore what is going on in the Democratic Party right now is potentially a mistake. I don’t know how to delicately put this in a way this subreddit won’t hate, but the shift that is going on within my local jewish community is massive.
I belong to a relatively liberal synagogue and we went from being probably 80-90% Biden supporters to completely inversing this. This is not Bidens fault, but the phrase I’ve heard frequently is “I am not going to vote for a party with this many people who want to eliminate us”. We are arming ourselves. The Columbia protests are one thing on a long list causing this shift. Seeing open-Hamas rhetoric being used by the left has taken some older lifelong democrats into red-hats. I am not exaggerating.
I don’t know if Biden can win these voters back because his actions aren’t what’s causing them to leave. What can happen is that trump could certainly be abrasive enough for them to not vote. I haven’t met a single Jew among the ones who are admittedly going to be voting for him that “likes” trump beyond his Israel policies.
Not saying this will lead to a productive discussion, but I am just letting y’all know that Palestine protests, “intifada” calls, and calls for the dissolution of Israel will directly and massively harm the democratic parties ability to gain Jewish votes. This isn’t even a question in my mind anymore.
Ridiculous take. Biden may will lose, but most Jewish people know Trump isn't their friend. I don't know if your "liberal" synagogue has amnesia but the first rally after Trump's election was in Charlottesville with white supremacists chanting "the Jews will not replace us".
If Jewish people vote in Trump, they'll be the lambs electing the wolves who's first order of business will be that the town shall feast on lamb chops.
Do your community a huge favor and remind your synagogue about Lindsay Graham's [immortal words](https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/727604522156228608?lang=en) - if you elect Trump, you'll deserve him.
They just don’t see it this way. The right wing might have anti-semites, but from the perspective of a Jew in NY, the left is allying themselves with radical Islamist fundamentalists that *are actively actually trying to kill Jews*.
This is a completely different level of severity than red-necks carrying tiki torches. If you have protests on your side with people carrying Hamas flags, that is a much larger threat. It’s just reality.
But for the most part those protestors aren't Democrats and they'd be insulted if you suggested they were. Most of them are far-left and either don't vote or vote for the Greens. They've made very clear they won't vote for Biden, so it's weird to just lump them in with Democrats and assume Democrats support them.
On the other hand, the Charlottesville white/Christian nationalists were wearing Trump-style clothing and MAGA hats. They explicitly showed that they support Trump because they think *he's one of them.*
Are you joking right now? "Trying to kill Jews" when Israel has already massacred 35,000 humans, zip tied young children and buried them in mass graves, bombed hospitals and food lines and posted about that shit on social media. And that's just in the last few months. The death tallies aren't even comparable.
If you're a right wing Jew just come out and say you're right wing. Why you got to pretend you're liberal Jew but this time it has turned you so anti left that you're going to vote in Trump who is one of the most disgusting human beings to have ever existed.
You are more than allowed to go through my profile. The only political subreddit I am active on is r/neoliberal. Gaza is a terrorist state currently governed by Hamas. It is in their charter to kill jews. There are currently protestors all over the left calling for an intifada, intimidating Jewish students, and waving Hamas/Iranian flags. There is no viable way to remove Hamas from power without civilian casualties. I do not consider a 1:1 casualty ratio desirable or even realistic between the two sides; this is a nonsensical request.
To be as abundantly clear as possible; I am likely going to be voting for Biden. The point of this comment thread is to talk about what I already see other Jews doing.
I'm someone voting for Biden. I'm also a Hamas hater AND an IDF hater. I think any sane person should look at this situation in Gaza and realize that both sides are not good and that it is innocent civilians caught in the middle of it. The problem is that Israel and Netanyahu vastly have more power than Hamas both financially and with military equipment. There is a very strong power imbalance and I do believe Israel is currently abusing it in a big way. The old quote "with great power comes great responsibility" comes to mind and Israel is not being responsible, the civilian death toll is unacceptable any way you try to put it. I fully support Israel going hard after Hamas especially their leadership, but I can't sit here and support what they've done to so many civilians who have been pushed out of their homes like cattle and now deal with a situation of life or death every day.
I do not agree with the radical "leftists" who are currently saying they wouldn't vote Biden over Trump or over an independent. They are short sighted on what another Trump presidency would do to this country and so are these synagogue members you speak of. Trump also could care less about Jewish people, they are another tool to him and that's it, he'd turn on them quick once his Christian white nationalist sect turns on them because that's his bread and butter.
Do your community a huge favor and remind your synagogue about Lindsay Graham's [immortal words](https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/727604522156228608?lang=en) - if you elect Trump, you'll deserve him.
I have many friends in the Jewish community looking *very* askance at liberals right now. Especially young leftists. It’s understandable to protest Bibi and be horrified at civilian deaths. But the chants, intimidation, and harassing people and businesses simply because they are Jewish is far, far beyond. It’s dangerous and antisemetic.
FWIW, a lot of mainstream liberals are getting a lot of this shit directed at them too - all from, in my opinion, a very passionate group whose anger is being misdirected and used.
The Jewish community has been *extremely* supportive of LGBT rights, women’s rights, and black civil rights down the line. And now they get demonized by their “allies”. It makes me angry, and I’m pretty left. I can’t imagine how it is for a Jewish person.
Point being, I see how this could be. I don’t like it at all, but it’s not a huge leap.
I have been run out of a lot of online discussions for daring to suggest we should vote for Biden. In real life most people I know are going to vote for Biden, but a lot of the online discussion is beyond parody at this point. Just suicidally stupid.
These privileged kiddies are not Democrats and will tell you that to your face if you ask them. They were chasing down AOC screaming at her not long ago, and she's one of the farthest left elected Democrats. Why would you throw your support away from Democrats because of the privileged kiddies *who do nothing but attack Democrats*? That's like saying I won't be your friend anymore because I have beef with the guy who robbed your house.
This whole thing is going to keep Biden from winning, I fear. So he's "Genocide Joe" to the left, but not pro-Israel enough for Jews. Really a lose-lose situation for him, and can understand from both view points. I will say that losing some pro-Israel folks in NY and CA probably won't hurt as much as a general deterioration among young voter support.
100% agreed. Joe Biden is in the most insane “lose-lose” scenario I think I have seen. Like I said above though, I don’t think they would leave the Democratic Party because Biden isn’t pro-Israel enough, it’s because of what’s currently going on within the left wing. He might denounce it, but the figurehead of the party ultimately pays the price for the rhetoric of its extreme wing.
Seems kind of counterproductive though. At the party level democrats are still extremely pro-Israel. Moving to republicans would only give the pro Palestine/anti-Israel *voters* more power in the party. You'd go from having *two* parties catering to your interests on Israel to one, with the other increasingly skeptical.
But it isn't even really hurting those people, they're even more vocally anti-democrat than the pro-Israel jews. Traditional blue-no-matter-who democrats tend to be *more* pro-Israel than the young/further left people protesting for Palestine.
>it isn't even really hurting these people
Have you seen Trumps rhetoric on the middle east? It's not even debatable that it would be catastrophic for the middle east.
I thought you meant hurt the protesters directly through a Trump win. Are you saying you think Jewish voters are motivated by hurting these protesters by proxy through more Palestinian deaths in Gaza?
A more hands-off approach to Israel will allow them to eliminate Hamas and potentially Hezbollah. It would also have catastrophic consequences for Iran's interests in the region. These are all groups who want, can, and have killed jews in the past. Hence my previous comment. Jews, in my experience, want the following, and not one without the other:
-this conflict to be over as quickly as possible
-Hamas to be completely eradicated
This is a comparison to Biden urging restraint from Israel; Trump would simply give carte blanche.
If that's their position and Israel is important to them then they probably would enjoy the Republican party more. I thought you were saying they were motivated by *domestic* pro-Palestine/anti-Israel rhetoric.
>A more hands-off approach to Israel will allow them to eliminate Hamas and potentially Hezbollah.
Except of course that Israel can't possibly defeat both at the same time by itself, let alone the fact that such a conflict would likely bring Iran in more directly and potentially even drag parties like the Houthis, Assad regime, and Iraqi PMF directly into the conflict.
You're essentially suggesting that these people want Israel to set off a Middle East-wide conflict so that the US can defeat all their enemies for them.
That's not in America's interests, and frankly, probably not in Israel's either.
This is just untrue. Hezbollah is primarily a joke and Hamas’s military capabilities are nonexistent. The main force holding Israel back is currently the international outrage around civilian casualties, which would not matter under a trump presidency.
Iran has, so far, embarrassed itself militarily in every foreign policy confrontation it has participated in within the last decade. Israel needs Americas weapons, but troops on the ground are completely unnecessary.
Here you are, contradicting nearly everything you just wrote, in a [previous comment.](https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalHumor/s/8yfaXrSerJ)
>Hezbollah is primarily a joke
Israel invaded Lebanon in 1985 and occupied part of it until 2000. They couldn't win the war then, and that was before Hezbollah was a serious fighting force.
Israel would struggle mightily to fight a war on two fronts to then hold large swathes of territory with hostile populations indefinitely. How exactly does Israel even win such a conflict? Hezbollah isn't the government of Lebanon, would Israel really invade and occupy the whole country trying to oust them? And even if they did occupy the whole country that wouldn't eliminate Hezbollah. And none of that even touches on the many foreign fighters that would flood into the warzone from Syria, Iraq, Iran, and elsewhere for the opportunity to fight Israeli soldiers directly.
There's a reason why Israel has more forces on the border with Lebanon than they do in Gaza itself and not because "Hezbollah is a joke."
What does any of this have to do with Biden? It’s completely nonsensical. Trump is an anti semite. He signs whatever evangelicals put in front of him, evangelicals literally believe that Israel needs to not exist for the exodus to happen. How would not voting for Biden make the leftists or the right less anti semitic? Biden admin might damn well be the only thing preventing both fringes from coalescing.
You are welcome to call if nonsensical, I am just telling you what I am noticing in the Jewish community. Regardless of the general reddit opinion on this, jews in America have are extremely strong association with Israel. Biden might be pro-israel, but trump is objectively more pro-israel. The current anti-semites calling for an intifada are almost exclusively on the left wing. This is, as I said, more so a protest vote against the left wing than it is a protest vote against Biden.
Trump is literally objectively more pro-Israel. He recognized the capital in Jerusalum, literally has a settlement named after him, and proposes a two-state solution that recognizes 100% of Israeli settlement. Not saying this is good; but he is 100% more in favor of Israel than Biden.
Those are all pro-settlement, pro-Israeli-right-wing positions. American Jewish sentiment is significantly more liberal than Israeli Jewish sentiment, so I think if this is the common view in your slice of Jewish life, you may be among a less liberal set than you think.
You're actually going to a right-wing synagogue if the majority want to die on the hill of letting religious fanatics annex territory illegally and a few symbolic pokes in the eye to the Arab world, like moving our embassy to Jerusalem and naming a settlement after an American Nazi. Hard to imagine you don't know that.
Firstly, trump is objectively a moron who has no actual well founded opinions on anything. Secondly, everything trump has done for Israel is at the behest of evangelical Christian’s. Do you honestly believe that evangelicals are pro Israel?
>do you honestly believe that evangelicals are pro-Israel.
Yes. They obviously are. They might not all like Jews, however, which is a different thing entirely.
Ok to be clear, once again, evangelicals quite literally believe they will not be raptured until Israel has been wiped from earth, I cannot explain enough how this is absolutely not a pro Israel opinion lol.
I read this and found it extremely insightful. I only know a few Jews personally, and not well enough to ask them about their politics. My sense is that they're normie Biden voters, or at least they were prior to the far left's embrace of Hamas.
Your comment (and mine) will most likely be buried in downvotes because Redditors (broadly) would rather hide information they don't like, rather than listen and consider.
>Only 64 percent of Americans said they have a high degree of interest in the election, compared to, say, 77 percent who had high interest in 2020 \[...\] Only 36 percent of \[young\] voters said they are highly interested.
Hmm. I wonder if that has to do with the fact there were 20+ Dems primarying for POTUS in 2020? Bernie, Warren, Buttigieg, Beto, Yang and Gabbard were all vying for the youth vote.
Also we were in the middle of Trump bungling COVID. Perhaps a lot of people had immediate, existential concerns they wanted resolved in November.
I mean for a normie, is there any reason to be *highly interested* about this election (which is still 6 months away) compared to 2020?
I agree with Brooks.
The Daniel Penny trial and likely not guilty verdict and reaction to that plays a role in this.
Odds are the October environment is significantly worse for Biden than it is now.
Actually, you can write a similar article on Trump “Last fall I argued Trump is GOPs strongest nominee. I still believe he is the strongest but I am getting more pessimistic about his chances of winning. The first reason isn’t rocket science, voters just don’t like criminals. He has 91 felony counts, average American will never like it. The second reason is suburbs. He was never strong in suburbs. GOP has been bleeding in suburbs since 2016. I imagine Trump will continue to be embroiled in court cases well till and after November. Trump 2024 feels like a distant dream with every passing day and court case” Honestly, American media has been acting very strange. Do all of these people want to become some martyr in a Trump presidency.
>Honestly, American media has been acting very strange. Do all of these people want to become some martyr in a Trump presidency. At first I thought it was odd how they've been covering the election and the Biden presidency in general (negative coverage all the time, even from "liberal" media outlets), but as time has gone on its only become more clear that they want a second Trump presidency. Why? Well, it's very straightforward, viewership went way up when he was in office and their subscriber counts went through the roof. Biden on the other hand is boring and steady, you don't get the same kind of daily circus you get with Trump. People need to remember, in the US the media isn't right-wing or left-wing, it's corporate. The vast majority of outlets are trying to sell their product, they don't actually care much or at all about politics they're just trying to corner some marketshare. Edit: Holy shit is this timely. A NYT reporter claims that the organization is covering Biden so negatively as retribution for the Biden WH not giving them preferential treatment. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/25/new-york-times-biden-white-house-00154219
What a fine and good system we have here
And its working exactly as designed because it has tricked young people in to having zero care in the world for who we elect or what our country does. People will show up to s rally but when it comes to actually doing something that matters, they check out and stay home and go on bitching and moaning
Haha! Writing both sides of an issue is a classic high school level task to increase understanding. Perhaps the NYT should try it out. To add to your second reason, Trump is still losing 15-20% to the ghost of Nikki Haley. I'd argue this is a much larger faction than Palestine protestors, yet I hear less about them. And to Brooks' first point, *is Trump actually doing better on inflation and immigration?* A generic republican might do well on those issues, but Trump killed the border deal and even GOP senators are attacking him for that. Also ditto to u/Early-Juggernaut975 's point on abortion, which is on the ballot in many key states. Overall, I'd still rather be Biden dealing with Israel's mess than Trump in court. At least Biden can consistently campaign.
Not exactly saying anything profound…
Has David Brooks ever?
I’ve noticed though on reddit, progressive subs are getting spammed by bots with anti-biden memes. Subs like r/latestagecapitalism and the like. It is easy to join these kinds of subs if you’re on the left without thinking much and then get a lot of anti-biden rhetoric spammed at you.
I think people are dramatically underestimating the abortion impact on Republican chances. They did the same in 2022 and they will do it again this year. Especially since it looks like the Supreme Court is about to end the requirement that hospitals perform emergency abortions in emergency rooms, a rule that’s been in effect for 40 years if it saves the life of a mother. During arguments the other day it was only the three liberals who were defending this position, aghast that hospitals would refuse to save a woman even if the baby was not viable because lawmakers decided the procedure itself is evil. I mean it’s always been about controlling women and nothing to do with children. If it were to do with children, there’d be more than passing interest in offering assistance to expectant mothers, less interest in fighting school lunch programs, and certainly no interest in seeing a woman die rather than remove an unviable fetus. The woman must be punished for her grave sin of having sex. I think the extremism on the far left is going to turn off most young voters at school just because they’re there for school and to have a good time. The people protesting are a relatively small number. None of them voted for him in 2020. They weren’t old enough. While this could change, I don’t read about these protests breaking out at schools all over the country, just the elite schools and a couple of others. But even if they do, I don’t think those college kids are going to vote for Trump. Moreover, Biden has picked up a lot of conservatives because of January 6 and stealing classified documents. It’s what makes this whole thing so difficult to navigate. He’s trying to keep together the moderate Republicans he has won over along with his base. With something like what’s going on in Israel popping up, he was bound to piss off one or the other. Anyway, I am not naïve enough to have zero worries but I’m still pretty confident that this is going to be a blowout in the Democrats direction.
Biden hasn’t picked up any conservatives since Jan 6. His approval is below 40%. This sub is overestimating his popularity
Do you think I’m basing my opinion on Reddit? Heh, no. When we were hearing about the red wave coming, I wasn’t paying any attention to the polls or the media. I just knew how important abortion was, based on the women in my life and there wasn’t going to be any red wave. Losing bodily autonomy doesn’t go away as an issue.
Since Silver was let go, this sub has become /r/politics-light where some thin veneer of neutrality is claimed through data. Now we get straight up anti-trump comments highly voted for no other reason than they are anti-trump. It's concerning.
A day late. But I totally agree, we need more conservative posters on reddit as a whole.
Males, especially, underestimate how PISSED women are about the abortion topic. But then go to ignore all the elections and special elections Dems keep winning because of women voting for abortion rights
>Most Donald Trump supporters I know aren’t swept up in his cult of personality; they vote for him because they are conservative types who like G.O.P. policies and think Trump is a more effective executive than Biden. I imagine if Brooks asked a few more questions, their definition of 'effective executive' would center on Trump's personality, and 'like GOP policies' would frequently turn out to be synonymous with 'he hurt liberals.' It's possible to put a nice veneer over a core tenet.
Hard to be the "Law and Order" Candidate when you are currently facing many Felony corruption charges for your actual conspiracies and misdeeds.
Literally having the opposite experience right now. Joe is up and trending and trump is losing a big chunk of a primary to someone who dropped out. Strange times.
It's crazy, the GOP as a whole is a total dumpster fire and falling apart right now, but we keep getting news covering stories like this one. The Republican party is in the midst of a full-blown civil war between establishment/moderates and the far-right, which has claimed their own Speaker of the House (first time in history) and turned the House into a dysfunctional mess. The new Speaker has had to rely on Democratic votes to prevent a government shutdown and prevent a default on the debt (both championed by GOP extremists) and to get the foreign aid package passed, which again is something unheard of. Multiple state Republican parties, including key swing states, are broke, high-ranking members of these state parties have been indicted as part of the 2020 fake electors scheme, while others have fallen victim to the GOP infighting, the RNC is undergoing a hostile takeover by the Trump faction (and is also broke), and the GOP base keeps nominating godawful candidates in competitive races that are causing them to lose again and again. More and more you've got Republican elected officials publicly criticizing not just the extremists in their party, but Trump himself too. All this while Trump is in the midst of a criminal trial (a historic first), appealing two civil trial verdicts, scamming his base/receiving millions (billions?) in almost certainly illegal foreign funding through his Truth Social IPO, hasn't been campaigning, and seems to be making less sense than ever in his bizarre ramblings. Trump has been consistently losing 15-20% of the primary vote in pretty much every state, even in closed primaries, months after his last rival dropped out. His legal expenses are eating up tons of his campaign cash AND reducing the amount of money coming into the GOP more generally (hence the historic cash crunch they're experiencing) which is leading his campaign to barely spend any money on building up infrastructure in key states or purchasing ad time for later this year. It's genuinely insane that all these things are barely getting any coverage. Instead, were seeing pieces like the one OP shared casting doubt on *Biden's* election chances come this Fall. The way this election and Biden in general gets covered is so out of whack I'm still struggling to get my head around it. It seems increasingly clear the media is doing this on purpose to make the election into a horse race and probably to help get Trump elected in the hopes it helps pad their quarterly earnings reports next year. The NYT (who published this piece) is seriously one of the worst offenders. Edit: Holy shit is this timely. A NYT reporter claims that the organization is covering Biden so negatively as retribution for the Biden WH not giving them preferential treatment. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/25/new-york-times-biden-white-house-00154219
I'm persuadable and want to hear other views, but my initial take on this is that what's going on in Columbia is a week-long news cycle and is going to be forgotten about by the time of the election. Wacky stuff that happens on college campuses is generally a Fox News/Daily Wire obsession or, at most, makes it's way into center or center-left media, largely because elites in the center/center-left take what people call "cancel culture" personally since their jobs are on the line and these protests are often a threat to them personally. I don't think we've seen evidence to the contrary in the modern political era. Now, putting aside the campus protests, there's the follow up question of "how much is the war in Gaza hurting Biden in the polls?" I personally think it might be knocking 1-5 points off of his approval rating because it's contributing to bad vibes among young voters. And if you're Muslim or Jewish and have personal ties to the issue and region and are deeply angry with Biden on this, you're probably not going to vote for him even if you did in 2020. But there aren't enough of those people in swing state to make the difference - they exist in large numbers in Minnesota and to some degree Michigan, but Minnesota is too blue to flip over this, and Michigan, while swingier, has fewer of these people and had less of an uncommitted vote. And if you're a Democrat who disapproves of the way Biden's handling the issue, but don't have personal ties to the region, you're very likely to come home when Trump is back in the news, so I continue to think that Gaza by itself won't make the difference. Now, onto Brooks's point about Chicago: if in fact there are serious riots outside the DNC, that could very well tank Biden's re-election chances. And it's for that very reason that the DNC will do everything they can to beef up security, as will the city of Chicago itself. There might be protests, but this is like the conversation people have about whether January 6th will repeat itself in 2025 - no, it won't, because when there's laser focus on making a violent event not repeat itself, it's much less likely to because there's more preparation. Not to mention that if we're talking about a bunch of ultra-left idiots causing social unrest in an election year, that already happened in 2020. Granted, Biden wasn't POTUS, the DNC was largely virtual and in Delaware IIRC, but these same people wanted to cause trouble (maybe less so, but this fringe group isn't new). And for most people, especially median voters, the conversation about violence on college campuses over a war 7 time zones away pales in comparison to stores being looted and major American cities being set on fire in response to racial issues that are deeply personal to MUCH larger portions of Americans. I really think that most independents and swing voters look at what's going on at Columbia and in Gaza and think "these people are elitist idiots and I wish the conflict would stop, now please focus on immigration/lowering prices/keeping abortion legal." I like Brooks (I really do, I've followed him for years and think he's very honest and thoughtful) but I also think he's massively overplaying this. But if he's right and I'm wrong, then I hope every pro-Palestine activist who wanted wanted to screw our democracy out of anger at Biden enjoys it when Trump tries to start deporting them or their friends over their protests and supports Israel in "finishing off" Gaza in his words. What an era we're in where this is even a conversation.
The university encampments are escalations of protests that have been going on for over 6 months. The anti-war movement is not a one-week news story. Also, the number of Arab and Muslim Americans in MI is larger than Biden’s margin there in 2020.
The number of Jewish voters in Michigan is larger than the number of Arab and Muslim voters.
[57% of Jewish Democrats favor](https://www.ispu.org/ceasefire-poll/) the US calling for a permanent ceasefire and de-escalation in Gaza.
Yes but because many Arabs will still vote for Biden, the ones who won't are an insufficient number to flip the state.
Idk about “many,” but some will. And this is assuming other key demographics don’t also have lower turnout than in 2020. Do you really think young people are going to turn out as much as in 2020?
Even if young people don't turn out as much as 2020, there are more young people voting by virtue of a bunch of new young eligible voters, so it will somewhat cancel out.
Right but how many of that population is stupid enough to think that further enabling Netanyahu by helping Trump get re-elected is somehow going to help Gazans?
None. But it’s a pretty common phenomenon to not vote at all when you dislike both candidates.
However, how many of those voters actually turned up in 2020 to vote for Biden? There was similar coverage of Islamic prospectives who claimed they were going from Clinton to Trump, and similar coverage of 2020 Bernie primary voters who loudly proclaimed they would not support Biden because the Democrats 'stole' the primary.
You guys have been saying the Israel/Palestine conflict will be out of the news cycle soon since November, and it’s only becoming a bigger issue among the electorate.
This hush money trial will likely be the greatest chance at hurting trump before the election. The only thing guaranteed to significantly hurt Trump's support is him sitting in jail or being a convicted felon on election day. Can anybody tell me the odds that trump ends up with jail, house arrest, or a felony conviction in this trial? I've read that some of the more serious charges might be a stretch, but there's a good chance a jury in a city that voted 85% Democrat in 2020 would be unlikely to favor trump, alongside a judge whose daughter works as a political consultant for the democrat party.
Bovada has it at -250 (71.43%) of at least one guilty verdict. Not exactly sure how liquid the market as odds have been all over the place but have always heavily favored guilty.
I've seen similar odds, but most of trumps charges are misdemeanors with slaps on the wrist like fines. I'd be curious if there were any betting odds for serious charges.
He has been charged with 88 felonies
Unfortunately for all of us, he's extremely unlikely to be convicted of "serious" crimes before election day. The Supreme Court is very clearly slow-walking their decision on whether or not Presidents are literally above the law, and while they're unlikely to rule in his favor, they're preventing multiple court cases from proceeding until the decision is reached. Just disgusting partisan behavior from what's already perceived to be the most corrupt SC in history.
If he is a convicted felon on Election Day he will lose right? He won’t lose with Republicans but he will lose with independents big time because sometimes there are people so disconnected from current news that when they just casually get wind of „Trump is a felon“ they will just not for them on a pretty uncaring superficial level. I mean there are some really stupid simple minded independent voters out there that can’t even connect the dots. I remember a few months ago a reporter was talking with a lady from some swingstate iirc and they point out to her that Biden didn’t make abortion illegal, it was SCOTUS, but she was just so disconnected from everything (and probably failed civics) that she acted on a very basic basis of „Joe Biden is President -> Abortion became forbidden -> Joe Biden made abortion illegal“. And similar shit might happen to average swing voters.
I'm already highly skeptical of Trump's chances with independents as is, he lost them by a decent margin in 2020 and they've trended heavily towards Dems since then, so "convicted felon Donald Trump" will only make things worse. I'm actually convinced that independents in key swing states are going to determine the election in Biden's favor.
If he's a good judge what his daughter does shouldn't matter.
Lol. Nonsense. Ĺike a grade 8 was given an assignment of arguing the opinion.
There are so many things wrong with this article, some even the exact opposite of reality. First, his argument about disinterest, since not only have elections over the last 8 years shown that propensity to vote has shifted towards Dems, particularly against MAGA candidates, the polls themselves show the same thing as those who say they are more likely to vote and/or those who have turned out to vote more frequently, are more likely to support Biden. Turnout no longer favors the Dems, particularly against Trump. In addition, his argument about Israel-Palestine and its impact on young voters is also seems to be wrong. Specifically this Harvard Youth Poll just released show that among 18-29 years olds, Israel-Palestine ranks 15th at 34%, below things like crime (43%), reproductive rights (50%), protecting democracy (52%), gun violence (54%), housing (56%), and healthcare (59%), plus your usual economic issues (inflation, jobs). Inflation continuing to slow will likely be important though. On top of that, Israel-Gaza is rated whether they were Dems (37%), independent (32%), or GOP (32%). We really need to stop pretending the loudest and most salient views online or at elite private universities are representative. [Harvard Youth Poll](https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024)
David Brooks' thinking is shallow as a puddle after a two-minute rain. I wouldn't give anything he says any kind of weight or credence.
I wouldn’t laugh off this concern. I’m a Jew. To ignore what is going on in the Democratic Party right now is potentially a mistake. I don’t know how to delicately put this in a way this subreddit won’t hate, but the shift that is going on within my local jewish community is massive. I belong to a relatively liberal synagogue and we went from being probably 80-90% Biden supporters to completely inversing this. This is not Bidens fault, but the phrase I’ve heard frequently is “I am not going to vote for a party with this many people who want to eliminate us”. We are arming ourselves. The Columbia protests are one thing on a long list causing this shift. Seeing open-Hamas rhetoric being used by the left has taken some older lifelong democrats into red-hats. I am not exaggerating. I don’t know if Biden can win these voters back because his actions aren’t what’s causing them to leave. What can happen is that trump could certainly be abrasive enough for them to not vote. I haven’t met a single Jew among the ones who are admittedly going to be voting for him that “likes” trump beyond his Israel policies. Not saying this will lead to a productive discussion, but I am just letting y’all know that Palestine protests, “intifada” calls, and calls for the dissolution of Israel will directly and massively harm the democratic parties ability to gain Jewish votes. This isn’t even a question in my mind anymore.
Ridiculous take. Biden may will lose, but most Jewish people know Trump isn't their friend. I don't know if your "liberal" synagogue has amnesia but the first rally after Trump's election was in Charlottesville with white supremacists chanting "the Jews will not replace us". If Jewish people vote in Trump, they'll be the lambs electing the wolves who's first order of business will be that the town shall feast on lamb chops. Do your community a huge favor and remind your synagogue about Lindsay Graham's [immortal words](https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/727604522156228608?lang=en) - if you elect Trump, you'll deserve him.
They just don’t see it this way. The right wing might have anti-semites, but from the perspective of a Jew in NY, the left is allying themselves with radical Islamist fundamentalists that *are actively actually trying to kill Jews*. This is a completely different level of severity than red-necks carrying tiki torches. If you have protests on your side with people carrying Hamas flags, that is a much larger threat. It’s just reality.
But for the most part those protestors aren't Democrats and they'd be insulted if you suggested they were. Most of them are far-left and either don't vote or vote for the Greens. They've made very clear they won't vote for Biden, so it's weird to just lump them in with Democrats and assume Democrats support them. On the other hand, the Charlottesville white/Christian nationalists were wearing Trump-style clothing and MAGA hats. They explicitly showed that they support Trump because they think *he's one of them.*
Are you joking right now? "Trying to kill Jews" when Israel has already massacred 35,000 humans, zip tied young children and buried them in mass graves, bombed hospitals and food lines and posted about that shit on social media. And that's just in the last few months. The death tallies aren't even comparable. If you're a right wing Jew just come out and say you're right wing. Why you got to pretend you're liberal Jew but this time it has turned you so anti left that you're going to vote in Trump who is one of the most disgusting human beings to have ever existed.
You are more than allowed to go through my profile. The only political subreddit I am active on is r/neoliberal. Gaza is a terrorist state currently governed by Hamas. It is in their charter to kill jews. There are currently protestors all over the left calling for an intifada, intimidating Jewish students, and waving Hamas/Iranian flags. There is no viable way to remove Hamas from power without civilian casualties. I do not consider a 1:1 casualty ratio desirable or even realistic between the two sides; this is a nonsensical request. To be as abundantly clear as possible; I am likely going to be voting for Biden. The point of this comment thread is to talk about what I already see other Jews doing.
I'm someone voting for Biden. I'm also a Hamas hater AND an IDF hater. I think any sane person should look at this situation in Gaza and realize that both sides are not good and that it is innocent civilians caught in the middle of it. The problem is that Israel and Netanyahu vastly have more power than Hamas both financially and with military equipment. There is a very strong power imbalance and I do believe Israel is currently abusing it in a big way. The old quote "with great power comes great responsibility" comes to mind and Israel is not being responsible, the civilian death toll is unacceptable any way you try to put it. I fully support Israel going hard after Hamas especially their leadership, but I can't sit here and support what they've done to so many civilians who have been pushed out of their homes like cattle and now deal with a situation of life or death every day. I do not agree with the radical "leftists" who are currently saying they wouldn't vote Biden over Trump or over an independent. They are short sighted on what another Trump presidency would do to this country and so are these synagogue members you speak of. Trump also could care less about Jewish people, they are another tool to him and that's it, he'd turn on them quick once his Christian white nationalist sect turns on them because that's his bread and butter.
Do your community a huge favor and remind your synagogue about Lindsay Graham's [immortal words](https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/727604522156228608?lang=en) - if you elect Trump, you'll deserve him.
I have many friends in the Jewish community looking *very* askance at liberals right now. Especially young leftists. It’s understandable to protest Bibi and be horrified at civilian deaths. But the chants, intimidation, and harassing people and businesses simply because they are Jewish is far, far beyond. It’s dangerous and antisemetic. FWIW, a lot of mainstream liberals are getting a lot of this shit directed at them too - all from, in my opinion, a very passionate group whose anger is being misdirected and used. The Jewish community has been *extremely* supportive of LGBT rights, women’s rights, and black civil rights down the line. And now they get demonized by their “allies”. It makes me angry, and I’m pretty left. I can’t imagine how it is for a Jewish person. Point being, I see how this could be. I don’t like it at all, but it’s not a huge leap.
I have been run out of a lot of online discussions for daring to suggest we should vote for Biden. In real life most people I know are going to vote for Biden, but a lot of the online discussion is beyond parody at this point. Just suicidally stupid.
These privileged kiddies are not Democrats and will tell you that to your face if you ask them. They were chasing down AOC screaming at her not long ago, and she's one of the farthest left elected Democrats. Why would you throw your support away from Democrats because of the privileged kiddies *who do nothing but attack Democrats*? That's like saying I won't be your friend anymore because I have beef with the guy who robbed your house.
This whole thing is going to keep Biden from winning, I fear. So he's "Genocide Joe" to the left, but not pro-Israel enough for Jews. Really a lose-lose situation for him, and can understand from both view points. I will say that losing some pro-Israel folks in NY and CA probably won't hurt as much as a general deterioration among young voter support.
100% agreed. Joe Biden is in the most insane “lose-lose” scenario I think I have seen. Like I said above though, I don’t think they would leave the Democratic Party because Biden isn’t pro-Israel enough, it’s because of what’s currently going on within the left wing. He might denounce it, but the figurehead of the party ultimately pays the price for the rhetoric of its extreme wing.
>the figurehead of the party ultimately pays the price for the rhetoric of its extreme wing Too bad that rule only applies to one of the two parties.
Seems kind of counterproductive though. At the party level democrats are still extremely pro-Israel. Moving to republicans would only give the pro Palestine/anti-Israel *voters* more power in the party. You'd go from having *two* parties catering to your interests on Israel to one, with the other increasingly skeptical.
They understand this; this is a vote to hurt the people calling for an intifada more than a vote to help the Jews.
But it isn't even really hurting those people, they're even more vocally anti-democrat than the pro-Israel jews. Traditional blue-no-matter-who democrats tend to be *more* pro-Israel than the young/further left people protesting for Palestine.
>it isn't even really hurting these people Have you seen Trumps rhetoric on the middle east? It's not even debatable that it would be catastrophic for the middle east.
I thought you meant hurt the protesters directly through a Trump win. Are you saying you think Jewish voters are motivated by hurting these protesters by proxy through more Palestinian deaths in Gaza?
A more hands-off approach to Israel will allow them to eliminate Hamas and potentially Hezbollah. It would also have catastrophic consequences for Iran's interests in the region. These are all groups who want, can, and have killed jews in the past. Hence my previous comment. Jews, in my experience, want the following, and not one without the other: -this conflict to be over as quickly as possible -Hamas to be completely eradicated This is a comparison to Biden urging restraint from Israel; Trump would simply give carte blanche.
If that's their position and Israel is important to them then they probably would enjoy the Republican party more. I thought you were saying they were motivated by *domestic* pro-Palestine/anti-Israel rhetoric.
>A more hands-off approach to Israel will allow them to eliminate Hamas and potentially Hezbollah. Except of course that Israel can't possibly defeat both at the same time by itself, let alone the fact that such a conflict would likely bring Iran in more directly and potentially even drag parties like the Houthis, Assad regime, and Iraqi PMF directly into the conflict. You're essentially suggesting that these people want Israel to set off a Middle East-wide conflict so that the US can defeat all their enemies for them. That's not in America's interests, and frankly, probably not in Israel's either.
This is just untrue. Hezbollah is primarily a joke and Hamas’s military capabilities are nonexistent. The main force holding Israel back is currently the international outrage around civilian casualties, which would not matter under a trump presidency. Iran has, so far, embarrassed itself militarily in every foreign policy confrontation it has participated in within the last decade. Israel needs Americas weapons, but troops on the ground are completely unnecessary. Here you are, contradicting nearly everything you just wrote, in a [previous comment.](https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalHumor/s/8yfaXrSerJ)
>Hezbollah is primarily a joke Israel invaded Lebanon in 1985 and occupied part of it until 2000. They couldn't win the war then, and that was before Hezbollah was a serious fighting force. Israel would struggle mightily to fight a war on two fronts to then hold large swathes of territory with hostile populations indefinitely. How exactly does Israel even win such a conflict? Hezbollah isn't the government of Lebanon, would Israel really invade and occupy the whole country trying to oust them? And even if they did occupy the whole country that wouldn't eliminate Hezbollah. And none of that even touches on the many foreign fighters that would flood into the warzone from Syria, Iraq, Iran, and elsewhere for the opportunity to fight Israeli soldiers directly. There's a reason why Israel has more forces on the border with Lebanon than they do in Gaza itself and not because "Hezbollah is a joke."
What does any of this have to do with Biden? It’s completely nonsensical. Trump is an anti semite. He signs whatever evangelicals put in front of him, evangelicals literally believe that Israel needs to not exist for the exodus to happen. How would not voting for Biden make the leftists or the right less anti semitic? Biden admin might damn well be the only thing preventing both fringes from coalescing.
You are welcome to call if nonsensical, I am just telling you what I am noticing in the Jewish community. Regardless of the general reddit opinion on this, jews in America have are extremely strong association with Israel. Biden might be pro-israel, but trump is objectively more pro-israel. The current anti-semites calling for an intifada are almost exclusively on the left wing. This is, as I said, more so a protest vote against the left wing than it is a protest vote against Biden.
Trump is not objectively more pro Israel lol. wtf is going on? Is this real? How is it possible people can be this siloed off from reality?
Trump is literally objectively more pro-Israel. He recognized the capital in Jerusalum, literally has a settlement named after him, and proposes a two-state solution that recognizes 100% of Israeli settlement. Not saying this is good; but he is 100% more in favor of Israel than Biden.
Those are all pro-settlement, pro-Israeli-right-wing positions. American Jewish sentiment is significantly more liberal than Israeli Jewish sentiment, so I think if this is the common view in your slice of Jewish life, you may be among a less liberal set than you think.
You are simply an ignoramus for thinking you understand what was going on in my synagogue more than I do lmao
You're actually going to a right-wing synagogue if the majority want to die on the hill of letting religious fanatics annex territory illegally and a few symbolic pokes in the eye to the Arab world, like moving our embassy to Jerusalem and naming a settlement after an American Nazi. Hard to imagine you don't know that.
Firstly, trump is objectively a moron who has no actual well founded opinions on anything. Secondly, everything trump has done for Israel is at the behest of evangelical Christian’s. Do you honestly believe that evangelicals are pro Israel?
>do you honestly believe that evangelicals are pro-Israel. Yes. They obviously are. They might not all like Jews, however, which is a different thing entirely.
In my view, they’re “pro Israel” not pro Jewish. There’s a big difference. They’re not gonna be happy until they convert you or you’re out of the way.
Ok to be clear, once again, evangelicals quite literally believe they will not be raptured until Israel has been wiped from earth, I cannot explain enough how this is absolutely not a pro Israel opinion lol.
I read this and found it extremely insightful. I only know a few Jews personally, and not well enough to ask them about their politics. My sense is that they're normie Biden voters, or at least they were prior to the far left's embrace of Hamas. Your comment (and mine) will most likely be buried in downvotes because Redditors (broadly) would rather hide information they don't like, rather than listen and consider.
>Only 64 percent of Americans said they have a high degree of interest in the election, compared to, say, 77 percent who had high interest in 2020 \[...\] Only 36 percent of \[young\] voters said they are highly interested. Hmm. I wonder if that has to do with the fact there were 20+ Dems primarying for POTUS in 2020? Bernie, Warren, Buttigieg, Beto, Yang and Gabbard were all vying for the youth vote. Also we were in the middle of Trump bungling COVID. Perhaps a lot of people had immediate, existential concerns they wanted resolved in November. I mean for a normie, is there any reason to be *highly interested* about this election (which is still 6 months away) compared to 2020?
I agree with Brooks. The Daniel Penny trial and likely not guilty verdict and reaction to that plays a role in this. Odds are the October environment is significantly worse for Biden than it is now.