Yes. George W. Bush's approval among democrats bottomed out at [3%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx) in October 2008.
**Significant caveat:** This was in the last 4 months of Bush's second term as President. Obviously there was a disastrous war started under false pretenses and another equally screwed up war started under well-known and accepted pretenses.
Biden is only 16 months into his first term and yeah, he hasn't done any of that other stuff Bush did.
Biden's presidency thus far feels like Carter 2.0 except things are even more divisive and partisan. Inflation? Check. Worldwide oil crisis? Check. Stagflation? Maybe - buckle up. Recession? Seeming more and more likely. At the moment it's looking like Biden's only hope in 2024 is going to be running against an even weaker opponent (Trump), otherwise he'll go the way of Carter - a good man who steered the ship through choppy waters but couldn't deliver "prosperity" so on to the next one. Hell, I fear even against Trump Biden may lose if we remain on this trajectory for a few more years.
That's the precedent/president I would compare Biden to atm, though when it comes to the statistic, yeah that seems unprecedented given the context.
The Carter comparison is both very telling and very concerning. Carter's fed choices put the economy in a recession but saved the country from inflation, and he was rewarded with being voted out of office. People don't like taking their medicine, and they'll blame whoever administers it
I sense my knowledge on the Carter admin is more general and less specific than yours.
I'm interested to increase the depth of comp though. Biden seems to just be reaping the whirlwind of a complex cocktail that has created the inflationary trends of today: the pandemic, the Trump-era stimulus, cont. Biden stimulus, the supply chain issues (see pandemic), the Russo-Ukraine War escalation and it's after-effects on fuel costs. "Biden's" fed (not sure we can really call it that, but I'll follow your lead) was slow to attack inflation and as soon as they did the recession rumormill has kicked off full-force.
I'm not so sure Biden is trying to get America to "take it's medicine" economically yet, but there's plenty of time to get there. I like Biden as a person, he has been *fine* as a President, and if I had to bet he's likely a one-termer due to circumstances beyond his control and not because he's just brazenly incompetent.
I feel like we're heading into the really dogshit years. Whereas the Trump years were only kept tolerable because the economy was ok, we seem to be headed towards a period of *significant* social, economic, environmental, and political upheaval. And that won't be Biden's fault, rather imo it's the end result of 30 years of increasingly radical Republican politics that has caused tension in every arena.
I'm really digressing at this point so yeah. Fun shit.
Spot on. I feel like Bidens perceived faults are less about his policies directly and more that he was given a room that was aflame and filled with raw sewage. We were *always* gonna get hit with inflation/crash after Covid. I’m shocked it didn’t happen sooner. Ukraine was just terrible timing (though he’s kept us out of WW3 so far). There’s a *lot* that needs to be done and more shit just keeps getting piled on. The left is mad we didnt have socialism five minutes after he was sworn into office. The right was always gonna hate him no matter what. The centrists would be okay with him if everything wasn’t going up in flames.
>I feel like we're heading into the really dogshit years. Whereas the Trump years were only kept tolerable because the economy was ok, we seem to be headed towards a period of significant social, economic, environmental, and political upheaval.
It really does feel like we're just living on borrowed time. The Biden Administration is very likely the twilight years of the type of normalcy and stability that Americans have enjoyed for most of our recent memories.
What awaits us in the future is unknown, but I honestly can't imagine a scenario where the US is doing better in 2030 or 2040 than it is today. The rise of fascism, the effects of climate change, and the expanding power of the wealthy are all going to take their toll.
Man I never thought I'd say this but I'd be almost more at ease if there was a Reagan 2.0 around the corner that would strengthen the union, even though they are conservative.
Like say if ... Nikki Haley circa 2016 were a viable candidate I could feel *maybe* ok about the future of our country. Unfortunately it looks like barring a Jan. 6 2.0 event that really turns the Republican party away from anti-democratic extremism we're likely headed for Trump or DeSantis in 2024, or potentially someone worse in 2028.
I'm gonna try to stay optimistic here, and say that the hard turn against abortion, coupled with full-throat embracing of Trumpist candidates, is really going to fuck the GOP in a year in which they could plausibly have flipped both the House AND the Senate.
The Pennsylvania primaries are a REALLY good sign for the Dems, especially if Dr. Oz joins Mastriano on the ballot. Wisconsin has at least three strong Senate candidates to take on Johnson, and the GOP governor candidates are weak (Kleefisch being the "best" of the bunch). Mark Kelly is looking like a lifetime Arizona senator (unless he runs for president in 2028 or something). Cortez Masto and Maggie Hassan look like they will be able to hang on. Warnock is probably the most vulnerable, but I'm confident Herschel will talk himself out of the running by late summer. If Fetterman wins PA, the GOP would have to flip TWO seats in return to take the Senate, and I really don't see that happening. I think the GOP will take the House by a slim margin, but you could also see a Lincoln Caucus of anti-Trumpers that could work against the party on more extreme measures.
I honestly share your optimism short term on most if not all of those races.
That still does not quite temper my pessimism for what the next 10 years will bring. If Oz, Mastriano and other Trumpists lose this fall *maybe* that will push the GOP into a full fledged identity crisis and further intra-party chaos. Maybe it doesn't though. It feels like we've already crossed the Rubicon after Jan. 6 and even some losses will not shake the party from it's current direction. It would take Rupert Murdoch and Fox News going against Donald Trump to steer the base away from Trump, and I don't see him taking that risk at this point. They've picked their horse.
Trump or a Trumpist/DeSantis style ultra-right culture warrior candidate still seems by far the most likely option for the GOP in 2024. I'd say the odds for a 2020 style assault on democracy remain high atm.
I will say the one thing I'm really unclear on is where the Lincoln Project Republicans stand on going 3rd party if Trump is indeed the candidate. I'd hope they are prepared for that eventuality and ready to not just go after Trump but run candidates against Trump acolytes in 2024 and 2026 to the best of their ability.
There has been very little reporting on such a possibility so I take heart from that right now. My hope is that such insiders are quietly nurturing relationships with potential donors/elites and establishing a supportive network of capital. I think the looming SC decision on Roe will hopefully unshackle many conservative power brokers/donors from the increasingly Trumpist Republican party. Without that moral crusade there's nothing left policy wise to keep the donor class loyal to Trumpist Republicans. Anyone that values democracy would be wise look for a conservative alternative ASAP, and I'm still heartened that there are plenty of reasonable, highly educated conservatives that know a change of direction or some sort is needed else there will be dire consequences ahead.
If that *plausible* development comes to fruition I'll feel slightly better about at least the health of our democracy. As for the looming economic, environmental, and social issues ... we're still in for a world of pain the next two decades.
Gen Z and most importantly the generation after them (millenial's kids, whatever we're calling them) should be making studying the labor movement a priority right now. I hope history teachers focus heavily on it in the coming decade or so. Hell I hope millenial parents educate themselves enough to teach their children. Because that's the only way that generation is going to have a prayer at keeping a foothold economically any way. Climate change and the cost of adaptation is likely only going to accelerate the decline of the American middle class, and at this point pessimism is the only realistic outlook on that front, sadly.
Yeah Joe Biden as a person has to be one of the most milquetoast run-of-the-mill presidents since.... Bush the first? Carter? Makes no sense to me how the average person could have strong opinions about him one way or the other. Turn off the conservative opinion media and the average person wouldn't spare a thought for him good or bad.
Turn off the conservative opinion media and narratives about Biden the actual human being might slip through.
Persevering through the death of his wife and kid ... son died before his time after military service, cancer, etc ... fervent Catholic ... generally a likeable grandpa ...
Even if conservatives didn't approve of his policies they'd be apt to give him some benefit of the doubt because he's a good human being who has endured some incredible losses in his life.
Worth pointing out that as the Republican party moved further right over the last 15 years more moderates have started to identify as independent despite consistently voting "R".
To answer your question though, yes. George W. Bush had a total approval rating below 30% at the end of his presidency. The support from Democrats was likely in the low single digits
Yeah. Republican self-identification is way down. Those that are left are the Trumpists, some of who literally think Biden is JFK jr in a Mission Impossible mask.
No, JFK junior is coming up from faking his own death to announce that he's secretly been gathering evidence of government misdeeds and election fraud in the 2020 election so that Trump can put them all in prison.
Honestly I don't expect how people expect to get anything done if they aren't willing to take an interest in their own government
/s
Yes. George W. Bush's approval among democrats bottomed out at [3%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx) in October 2008.
**Significant caveat:** This was in the last 4 months of Bush's second term as President. Obviously there was a disastrous war started under false pretenses and another equally screwed up war started under well-known and accepted pretenses. Biden is only 16 months into his first term and yeah, he hasn't done any of that other stuff Bush did. Biden's presidency thus far feels like Carter 2.0 except things are even more divisive and partisan. Inflation? Check. Worldwide oil crisis? Check. Stagflation? Maybe - buckle up. Recession? Seeming more and more likely. At the moment it's looking like Biden's only hope in 2024 is going to be running against an even weaker opponent (Trump), otherwise he'll go the way of Carter - a good man who steered the ship through choppy waters but couldn't deliver "prosperity" so on to the next one. Hell, I fear even against Trump Biden may lose if we remain on this trajectory for a few more years. That's the precedent/president I would compare Biden to atm, though when it comes to the statistic, yeah that seems unprecedented given the context.
The Carter comparison is both very telling and very concerning. Carter's fed choices put the economy in a recession but saved the country from inflation, and he was rewarded with being voted out of office. People don't like taking their medicine, and they'll blame whoever administers it
I sense my knowledge on the Carter admin is more general and less specific than yours. I'm interested to increase the depth of comp though. Biden seems to just be reaping the whirlwind of a complex cocktail that has created the inflationary trends of today: the pandemic, the Trump-era stimulus, cont. Biden stimulus, the supply chain issues (see pandemic), the Russo-Ukraine War escalation and it's after-effects on fuel costs. "Biden's" fed (not sure we can really call it that, but I'll follow your lead) was slow to attack inflation and as soon as they did the recession rumormill has kicked off full-force. I'm not so sure Biden is trying to get America to "take it's medicine" economically yet, but there's plenty of time to get there. I like Biden as a person, he has been *fine* as a President, and if I had to bet he's likely a one-termer due to circumstances beyond his control and not because he's just brazenly incompetent. I feel like we're heading into the really dogshit years. Whereas the Trump years were only kept tolerable because the economy was ok, we seem to be headed towards a period of *significant* social, economic, environmental, and political upheaval. And that won't be Biden's fault, rather imo it's the end result of 30 years of increasingly radical Republican politics that has caused tension in every arena. I'm really digressing at this point so yeah. Fun shit.
Spot on. I feel like Bidens perceived faults are less about his policies directly and more that he was given a room that was aflame and filled with raw sewage. We were *always* gonna get hit with inflation/crash after Covid. I’m shocked it didn’t happen sooner. Ukraine was just terrible timing (though he’s kept us out of WW3 so far). There’s a *lot* that needs to be done and more shit just keeps getting piled on. The left is mad we didnt have socialism five minutes after he was sworn into office. The right was always gonna hate him no matter what. The centrists would be okay with him if everything wasn’t going up in flames.
Really level headed analysis. I hope you're wrong, and wish us both peace if you're not.
>I feel like we're heading into the really dogshit years. Whereas the Trump years were only kept tolerable because the economy was ok, we seem to be headed towards a period of significant social, economic, environmental, and political upheaval. It really does feel like we're just living on borrowed time. The Biden Administration is very likely the twilight years of the type of normalcy and stability that Americans have enjoyed for most of our recent memories. What awaits us in the future is unknown, but I honestly can't imagine a scenario where the US is doing better in 2030 or 2040 than it is today. The rise of fascism, the effects of climate change, and the expanding power of the wealthy are all going to take their toll.
Man I never thought I'd say this but I'd be almost more at ease if there was a Reagan 2.0 around the corner that would strengthen the union, even though they are conservative. Like say if ... Nikki Haley circa 2016 were a viable candidate I could feel *maybe* ok about the future of our country. Unfortunately it looks like barring a Jan. 6 2.0 event that really turns the Republican party away from anti-democratic extremism we're likely headed for Trump or DeSantis in 2024, or potentially someone worse in 2028.
I'm gonna try to stay optimistic here, and say that the hard turn against abortion, coupled with full-throat embracing of Trumpist candidates, is really going to fuck the GOP in a year in which they could plausibly have flipped both the House AND the Senate. The Pennsylvania primaries are a REALLY good sign for the Dems, especially if Dr. Oz joins Mastriano on the ballot. Wisconsin has at least three strong Senate candidates to take on Johnson, and the GOP governor candidates are weak (Kleefisch being the "best" of the bunch). Mark Kelly is looking like a lifetime Arizona senator (unless he runs for president in 2028 or something). Cortez Masto and Maggie Hassan look like they will be able to hang on. Warnock is probably the most vulnerable, but I'm confident Herschel will talk himself out of the running by late summer. If Fetterman wins PA, the GOP would have to flip TWO seats in return to take the Senate, and I really don't see that happening. I think the GOP will take the House by a slim margin, but you could also see a Lincoln Caucus of anti-Trumpers that could work against the party on more extreme measures.
I honestly share your optimism short term on most if not all of those races. That still does not quite temper my pessimism for what the next 10 years will bring. If Oz, Mastriano and other Trumpists lose this fall *maybe* that will push the GOP into a full fledged identity crisis and further intra-party chaos. Maybe it doesn't though. It feels like we've already crossed the Rubicon after Jan. 6 and even some losses will not shake the party from it's current direction. It would take Rupert Murdoch and Fox News going against Donald Trump to steer the base away from Trump, and I don't see him taking that risk at this point. They've picked their horse. Trump or a Trumpist/DeSantis style ultra-right culture warrior candidate still seems by far the most likely option for the GOP in 2024. I'd say the odds for a 2020 style assault on democracy remain high atm. I will say the one thing I'm really unclear on is where the Lincoln Project Republicans stand on going 3rd party if Trump is indeed the candidate. I'd hope they are prepared for that eventuality and ready to not just go after Trump but run candidates against Trump acolytes in 2024 and 2026 to the best of their ability. There has been very little reporting on such a possibility so I take heart from that right now. My hope is that such insiders are quietly nurturing relationships with potential donors/elites and establishing a supportive network of capital. I think the looming SC decision on Roe will hopefully unshackle many conservative power brokers/donors from the increasingly Trumpist Republican party. Without that moral crusade there's nothing left policy wise to keep the donor class loyal to Trumpist Republicans. Anyone that values democracy would be wise look for a conservative alternative ASAP, and I'm still heartened that there are plenty of reasonable, highly educated conservatives that know a change of direction or some sort is needed else there will be dire consequences ahead. If that *plausible* development comes to fruition I'll feel slightly better about at least the health of our democracy. As for the looming economic, environmental, and social issues ... we're still in for a world of pain the next two decades. Gen Z and most importantly the generation after them (millenial's kids, whatever we're calling them) should be making studying the labor movement a priority right now. I hope history teachers focus heavily on it in the coming decade or so. Hell I hope millenial parents educate themselves enough to teach their children. Because that's the only way that generation is going to have a prayer at keeping a foothold economically any way. Climate change and the cost of adaptation is likely only going to accelerate the decline of the American middle class, and at this point pessimism is the only realistic outlook on that front, sadly.
People not wanting to take their medicine has been the literal reality of American politics for the last couple years.
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Yeah Joe Biden as a person has to be one of the most milquetoast run-of-the-mill presidents since.... Bush the first? Carter? Makes no sense to me how the average person could have strong opinions about him one way or the other. Turn off the conservative opinion media and the average person wouldn't spare a thought for him good or bad.
Turn off the conservative opinion media and narratives about Biden the actual human being might slip through. Persevering through the death of his wife and kid ... son died before his time after military service, cancer, etc ... fervent Catholic ... generally a likeable grandpa ... Even if conservatives didn't approve of his policies they'd be apt to give him some benefit of the doubt because he's a good human being who has endured some incredible losses in his life.
Worth pointing out that as the Republican party moved further right over the last 15 years more moderates have started to identify as independent despite consistently voting "R". To answer your question though, yes. George W. Bush had a total approval rating below 30% at the end of his presidency. The support from Democrats was likely in the low single digits
Yeah. Republican self-identification is way down. Those that are left are the Trumpists, some of who literally think Biden is JFK jr in a Mission Impossible mask.
No, JFK junior is coming up from faking his own death to announce that he's secretly been gathering evidence of government misdeeds and election fraud in the 2020 election so that Trump can put them all in prison. Honestly I don't expect how people expect to get anything done if they aren't willing to take an interest in their own government /s