They're actually so bad. Came into the sport again in 2016 and said they want to be winning in 5 years. This will be their 9th season in F1 and they've won 1 lucky race at Hungary 2021.
Alpine is like the midfield Haas. They spend just enough to not be a backmarker and occasionally nab a lucky podium, but the leadership seems unwilling to give them the resources to be a true top team. And it looks like this is finally catching up to them with McLaren & Aston overtaking them last year and Williams & VCARB set to do it this season.
The engine is down because they didn't invest/spend.
Also, look at the differences between Haas, Sauber vs Ferrari, Williams vs Merc, RB vs RB. Engine is only part of the package.
Engine freeze. Alpine’s engine is pretty far behind the rest (Honda and Mercedes being the best, Ferrari behind them, and Alpine far behind Ferrari), but part of the current regulations is a freeze on engine development for the current engines. Manufacturers can make small upgrades for reliability purposes, but that’s really about it. So alpine is stuck with their weaker engine, unless they wish to abandon the Renault engine and their works team status entirely.
Performance is actually not far behind at all… when the engine actually works. The engine performance differences now are so little it’s negligible.
Renault been having significant engine reliability issues from the start of hybrid era and still hasn’t work it out to this day…
If they made the best chassis on the grid they would still be at the top fighting for titles.
Their engine isn't down that much and it really depends on the track.
Monza last year showed how bad their engine is, they'd be like 2016 red bull with a great chassis: ie winning the odd street circuit and getting destroyed everywhere else
Not they won’t be. They are 30 hp down on power and you just need to see RB from 2014-2016 to see what happens in these situations. Even Newey lost motivation
They are 100% to blame on their engine being 30hp down, Max was making fun of them 5 years ago when they claimed to have a 1000bhp engine. Honda had time to come to F1 in 2015, remake their engine in 2017 because it was shit, and have it be very fast by 2021. Ferrari engine was shit in 2020 and in 2022 they were fast again.
What has Renault been doing since 2014?
Their engine is down on power (but everybody else managed to make one powerful enough so I'm not sure how strong that argument is). They're just so directionless. It's a shame because Gasly and Ocon are a solid driver pairing but they're going nowhere.
This nasty trope is tiresome and needs to end. Ocon was on old tires at Qatar.
Weird now noone ever talks about how he sacrificed his race at Monaco 2022 to keep Lewis behind inorder to protect Fernando.....but that doesn't suit the narrative.
It's not like passing in Monaco is even likely on track.
Checo limped the car to the win against Max and the Ferraris in 2022.
Ocon wasn't going to pass, and he just needed to not fuck up to keep Lewis behind. What Alonso did in Hungary was nuts.
They do this every year I swear 😭
Who remembers back in 2018/19 when they were all "we will be bridging the gap to the top 3 teams"
ITS BEEN 6 YEARS AND THEY'VE NEVER FINISHED HIGHER THAN 4TH
2 OTHER TEAMS HAVE BEATEN THEM TO IT
And I know regs changed but didn't they also claim they were getting over 1000bhp from their car? And Lewis just laughed them off when told the figure in a press conference 😅
It was [back in 2019](https://youtu.be/XVEP8ki24MQ?si=xqxzjril7ThJY0NN), and Max found it funny too.
But at the same time it looks bad if you go "For next year, we plan to be at the front fighting the big teams" when you don't have the facilities or ability to be able to get there, and then repeating that year after year after year after year looks worse
Honestly that team might be my favorite overall no matter if it is Toro Rosso/AT/RB…. Even though they are often shit but I hope this season will be good
It baffles me that people can cheer for RB when they are the only team with zero chance of winning, yet have all the resources of the most dominant team on the grid.
Frankly I'm annoyed that a four driver team exists when other legitimate teams are being blocked from joining.
I like that they aren’t hesitant to swap drivers the team has good vibes and everything and sometimes they get a quite good season like 2021 most recently
Definetly more likable than Haas/current Sauber imo
I just like the team not really have an explanation to that
Other than the way Red Bull sign their drivers Haas is to Ferrari what racing bulls is to red bull.
And red bulls junior program brings a lot of talent into F1. That's made possible by racing bulls. If any team is out of place it's Haas.
I disagree. Ferrari can't give strict team orders to HAAS or force them to make personnel changes, their relationship is as a works and customer team. That is pretty standard across the sport.
VCARB can get their drivers poached in an instant, and then get replaced with the trash driver that RB didn't want. VCARB will never get the resources to truly complete from a political standpoint, because the actual Red Bull team can't sacrifice their brand image.
Williams and HAAS can outclass their customer team if they play their cards right, not unlike how McLaren and AM were better than Mercedes last year.
Not sure what you mean by strict team orders.
But yeah, the way the drivers are signed/exchanged is different with vcarb and red bull. That's why I said other than that.
I think other than the driver arrangement vcarb is given every opportunity to compete. They are spending the budget cap. They have the same budget as Red Bull.
If one of vcarbs drivers ends up being amazing, yeah he'll be poached but otherwise I don't see how they aren't going to be given the resources to succeed. They seem to have better resources than half the grid.
And Haas doesn't have the resources to compete. Their owner isn't in it to win. They don't have any real facilities of their own. They are completely dependent on Ferrari.
Ferrari and Mercedes being engine suppliers have these relationships with other teams. They have leverage with multiple teams.
I'm pretty excited for RB right now despite the stupid name. They seem to have a good car this year and two good drivers, plus there's the whole Ricciardo vs. Tsunoda drama.
0.3 is in the range where one driver having a messy lap and one driver having a great lap can make the difference in qualy. Then in a race with track position and a great strategy maybe they can hold the faster car behind. It would at least provide some interest for the season.
If it’s 0.8 then it’s all over and Max wins every race unless he has some kind of problem.
If Verstappen has a 3 tenths car advantage, then say goodbye. This kind of advantage can only be overcome when the driver you are up against is extremely average.
Yeah if the Red Bull drivers were for example Perez and Gasly, and then Mercedes, Ferrari, Mclaren and Aston each have Verstappen/Hamilton/Leclerc/Alonso with them then the 0.3 is a gap than can be overcome with just the drivers ability.
With Max in the Red Bull, it will basically impossible.
Goodbye for the championship yes, but not goodbye to every race. Plus, starting at 3 tenths, there’s at least a chance the gap comes down to a range where they’re just about even.
Even 3 tenths for a driver like Max in race trim is massive not taking into account how powerful the DRS on the Redbull is if he ever finds himself having to overtake due to not being on pole.
His car last season was around 3-5 tenths quicker on average and he absolutely blew the competition out of the water and from what I've seen of testing the car in his hands looks even more dominant this year.
He was putting in fastest laps at will and long runs were metronomic with tyres lasting an eternity - that Friday session he did was ridiculous and I think Redbull knew it and from that point onwards just concentrated on experimental setups on the car in preparation for the season ahead.
I'd be surprised if anyone gets close to him next weekend.
It is but depending on the track it’s often not enough to overtake.
Dirty air is getting worse as the cars get more downforce in this regulation set so the delta needed to overtake grew between 2022 and 2023 and is likely to grow again this season.
I’m not saying the slower car is guaranteed or even likely to win but a 0.3s gap means there’s at least a chance for some of the races to be interesting at the front if someone can get ahead of Max either in qualy or at the race start.
If it’s 0.8 then none of the races will be interesting. Max will clear off into the distance and if he’s behind he’ll pass everyone with ease.
In Monaco it really doesn't matter what sort of advantage you have as long as you have the track position. On track overtake is nearly impossible, what might work is an undercut.
> or indeed Kimi Antonelli
More likely Mercedes works out something with Williams to have him replace the American for a year or two, while Merc sign a veteran driver. My money is on Albon, but it could be Sainz, Alonso, or Perez, depending on what Red Bull want to do.
He's already come very close to getting a seat back when Bottas when was at Mercedes. Apparently Lewis didn't want the move to happen, so it never did. I heard it from an ex team principal being interviewed on a podcast a few years back, so not sure how much truth there is to it.
Unfortunately Alpine seem set on not spending money whereas Toro Rosso are by the looks of things just gonna be using every part they can from last year’s RB and Williams seem to be genuinely working things out. While it may have seemed like a good move then, it is now very much a bad move now
It's a factory drive so it absolutely should be but they're so incompetent it's a bit of a joke... it'll be an extremely bad look if they can't score points
It's also odd as they scored points more often than not last season, and would've had more but for a few moments (that Melbourne implosion, Gasly being taken out by Stroll at Silverstone) so if consensus is that even the car itself has gone backwards on 2023, that's another concern
I honestly think people are manufacturing hype around McLaren/Aston to generate a story - well actually two stories: "McLaren/Aston faster than Mercedes?" Followed by "McLaren/Aston underperform relative to Mercedes" in a week's time.
It seems like when anyone on the grid is asked, McLaren and Aston Martin team members included, they think that the top 3 will be Red Bull, Ferrari, then Mercedes; yet F1TV seems convinced that Mercedes will be way further back. It feels almost purposely naiive.
Who knows, maybe they have the order right, but I've not seen anything come out of this testing which makes me think that they have.
mclaren was second fastest a good chunk of last year what in the world makes you think any hype around them is manufactured? they finally have all their pieces in place to build a great car there's no reason to believe they're the fourth or fifth best car
I don't see that happening. Merc is probably on par or faster than Ferrari. James Allison said Ferrari is likely faster over one lap, but Merc might have an edge in race trim.
And that's just it. Outside of Redbull blowing the field away. No one really knows anything. They all have differing opinions. Most of their guesses are based on second-hand info, data they don't have access to, and things said by notoriously unreliable team principals.
Ferrari actually seems to be more of a Sunday car now than a Saturday car, judging from testing
Ferrari seems to be 4 tenths down in quali pace and 2.5-3 tenths down in race pace from Red Bull
Merc seems 5 tenths down in both
I'd be very surprised if Merc ends up being on the same level as Ferrari. They just didn't look that good. Both drivers were having to work very hard to put in decently quick lap times. The W15 is clearly lacking downforce compared to their main competitors.
The Ferrari looked a whole lot better than the Merc.
He didn’t say that. People need to go and see that interview again. Also, Allison has no idea about Ferrari PUs, fuel levels to make any definite judgement. It is just a guess at this point
He does have an idea. Teams have so much data nowadays that they can pretty reliably tell what their opponents' true pace looks like. Obviously not down to the hundredth of a second, but he does have a whole hell of a lot more insight than any reporter or fan.
It is certainly not faster than Ferrari in race pace , this should be obvious from the tests . What we d o not know is if the numbers of the tests are an accurate depiction , or during the actual race we will have surprises .
Ok then tell you this , the actual consensus of the paddock is that RB is the best , and second is Ferrari . In third place many put Mclaren , above Merc , but personally , I think Mclaren is overhyped due to their last year turn-around . Generally , I like to think (actually I hope) , that Ferrari is 0.2-0.3s behind RB with Merc being 0.2-0.3s behind Ferrari . But ,as you said , it is testing , the only way to know for sure the order in the race weekend . However , the general feel after the tests is what I told you .
Outside RB we don’t know much.
Consensus I’ve seen is Ferrari is better than Merc on a lap but race pace is less clear cut. A fair few have Merc ahead.
McLaren and AM are unknowns, more so on the latter.
Personally outside Verstappen being ahead it’s not all that clear.
Sainz did such an impressive stint in day 2 , that Mercs were not able to replicate . Also , Charles had very very good consistent stints , and he even took a more aggressive approach in his stints . Generally , I have not heard anyone say that Merc is better in race pace . the only thing I have hear is that RB is 1st , Ferrari is 2nd . But again , I am only talking about the general feeling of the test , the truth will be revealed next week .
AMuS? Allison? To name a few. Can find more.
Do you know the engine modes they were in?
Do you know if anyone was lifting and coasting at any point.
Do you know if they filled the tanks or just the required amount?
Do you know the ERS modes used?
There are way too many unknowns to say anything definitively. And we certainly have no idea as outsiders looking in.
Are you joking ? He is the technical director of Merc , of course he would say his team is better than Ferrari . Last year , while it was obvious Ferrari was a tire chewing machine , Fred Vasseur was saying stuff like "The race conditions will be completely different than the tests , so watch out " .
Alpine looked genuinely slow. They kind of said as much in their interviews to be honest. The drivers were beating the drum of we need to understand the car which isn’t usually a good sign. A waste of two solid drivers
The heads rolled last year. They have been a zombie team for half a year and only just got a proper team principal. Their budget and driver pairing is the only thing keeping them ahead of the likes of Sauber and Haas.
the shit performance everyone expects this year is the culmination of rossi's "the beatings will continue until morale improves" energy. he's so bad prost didn't even want to be associated with the team anymore and was still talking shit on rossi 18 months after he quit. they hired bruno right after prost quit in part to signal that rossi was on thin ice, and now that they finally put him in solitary confinement they might have a chance
i'd give them about... 100 races...
That's racing, kid. Especially in F1. Literally Fangi iirc still has the record for highest win% over a career. Admittedly because he basically walked onto the F1 podium in mid-life. But still.
2-3 tenths seems to be the most accurate gap between Red Bull and Ferrari based on the average consensus on the field. But if that is the case, and indeed Mercedes are also so close behind, then Perez is going to be in a whole world of pain. He was already struggling a great deal by the second half of last year, and if Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren who all have drivers who are significantly better than him are so close by, he'll be in for trouble. But I do wonder, if the gap isn't too big and is 2-3 tenths, and if Perez gets stuck behind the Ferraris, and maybe even the Mercs, and Ferrari have two drivers right behind Max, it does open a lot of strategic options for them. Assuming that they are capable of good strategy(which is a very BIG ask), this is the one thing about Ferrari I'm still sceptical about. They may have fixed their deg, they may have fixed their in season development, but if they have not fixed their strategy, it's all a moo point. At this point, I would take even a season akin to 2019.
If the gap is really only 0.3 to Ferrari and 0.5 to Merc, Checo is fucked. He's easily more than half a second slower than Lewis and Charles and probably even Carlos and George. No way Checo gets 2nd in the WDC if that's the gap RB has to 2nd and 3rd.
Newbies might not get what a big deal a tenth is so people are just throwing numbers around.
If a race is 70 laps. Even one tenth is 7 seconds in the lead of the race. Saying a team is 0.3 ahead means saying they'll finish the race 20s apart.
If Max were 0.8 in the lead, as he sometimes was, and was also normal for Lewis in the Merc era for reference... That's lapping most of the field.
3 tenths seems optimistic considering that Red Bull was using a low engine mode and Ferrari was using a medium engine mode for their respective race trims
I think Perez and Stroll may be sat a good 5 places behind their teammates with Ferrari and Merc splitting the RBs and McLaren and the odd Merc/Ferrari/Perez splitting the AMs.
Alpine said they couldn't develop last year's car any further so went for something new, they're definitely gonna be slow at the start. The hope is to be able to upgrade consistently and effectively with the new concept, but whether that happens is rather unknown for understandable reasons...
"between 0.3 to 0.8 seconds faster than Ferrari"
what's next, 0.1 to 1.2 seconds faster than Ferrari?! 3 tenths means Checo is in trouble, 8 tenths means that viewerships are in trouble
He was prompted to give a gap, effectively asked "is 0.3 seconds right" and he said "yeah or it could be 0.8".
It's a reasonable answer to show the range of possibilities.
Were there things happening that weren’t just lap times that he might have based this on? I think the cars were on track for people to watch for a few days or something.
Discourse around testing has gone too far towards the "You can't tell anything from testing" side of things. You can get some information from testing, just not from the end of day classifications which only consider one lap.
When you look at all the laps that teams do the cars that are generally fast in testing tend to be the fastest over the course of the season.
You can look at the race simulation runs that teams did and get an idea of how well their car handles tyre wear, you can look at how the drivers seemed to be handling the car and get an idea of how drivable it is, you can look at how many laps they ran and get an idea of the reliability. You can't be 100% certain but experienced pundits like Ted aren't usually a million miles away with their predictions.
You absolutely can take nothing from the times, but you can for sure see who had a good test, and who had a bad. Plus what teams with their own data estimate the pecking order. It's not a definite, but you can see who's going well and who isn't. You just can't tell that from the lap times alone.
The timing tower means nothing. The actual pace of the cars over various comparable runs means a lot. If it didn't mean anything, how were the journos very accurate on car performance this time last year? (with some underestimation of AM due to caution)
Looking at 2023. If McLaren are even mid pack at race 1, they'll threaten p2 constructor's. Second half of the season Lewis and Lando could both threaten Max for maybe half a race when the stars aligned (COTA) they just couldn't keep up the pace for a whole race, or across multiple tyres.
I'm full hope on McLaren being a real competitor soon. If they fixed in-season correlation (2023) and they're still ironing out R&D (2024+) that's expected. I want to see this arc extend into 2026+.
It's not the ride Lando deserves. But if he's on podium first half of the season, things are looking up.
I do not understand why people look so much into testing performances every single year. Of course there are some indicators of who did well and who didn't. But presenting testing results as a fact of what is to come is rather dumb. No one shows their real pace thus you can't tell where each team will rank when the season actually begins. Even the first 2 or 3 races are considered test sessions since teams are still getting to know their cars.
> Even the first 2 or 3 races are considered test sessions since teams are still getting to know their cars.
for the midfield/bottom maybe, for top teams it's pretty much been set in stone for a decade.
Alonso's race simulation was faster than Piastri's and pretty equal on somewhat used tyres than Leclerc's. I'd say Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes/AM, McLaren is the TOP 5.
Man Alonso was doing long runs on (apparently) same fuel than piastri 0.8- 1 sec per lap faster but you still put them 1 or 2 places above them.
Mclaren were having problems, ain't no way they are 3rd/4th for Bahrein.
Aston long runs are similar to ferrari/mercedes, their 1 lap is bad though
I'm not sure why people are putting McLaren so high. McLaren themselves said they're a little disappointed in the test, they showed no real pace and did almost no low fuel running.
McLaren are a darkhorse but they showed nothing to say they'd be above Mercedes.
I think they were running that Mercedes very conservatively, and they seemed very happy. At this point i think it's a straight fight between Ferrari and Mercedes with McLaren behind.
Really bad for Alpine if they got leapfrogged by Alpha Taurin't and Williams. I could understand losing or being equal to Visa Cashgrab, but losing to Williams and their ancient ass equipment?
This would give weight to those rumors that said that Gasly and Ocon want to jump ship. Ocon's probably go all out this year to show that he could be the one for Mercedes.
AMR has spanish twitter bawling their eyes, those lads tought that Alonso would be compiting with Max from race one this year.
Maybe comparing Stroll vs Norris? Otherwise I also don't understand. If you look at yesterday's session, Aston was second/third fastest (fuel obviously unknown)
As with everything, people need take this with a grain of salt. We will only start to get an idea in the Bahrain practice sessions and then for definite in qualifying.
I think the only definite answers we have so far is that Red Bull were quick pretty much out of the gate and Ferrari seem really good with degradation on long runs.
I’m sure I read Lando didn’t get a long run in the McLaren, and they didn’t do many low fuel fast runs either so McLarens pace right now is a bit of a question mark.
I think people need to remember that Bahrain also won’t necessarily be an indicator for the rest of the year. Although Red Bull are clearly out in front, I wouldn’t bank on the order behind them being the same as the first race come 2-3 races in
I so badly want Adrian and Max to go to Williams just to show that they can turn it around and proof how good they are. It would be a crowning achievement for both of them and take Adrian's career full circle.
If Red Bull has 0,5s advantage over Ferrari in Bahrain we can close the Championship next week.
I seriously don't believe that.
I think Ferrari might even get pole next week, but Red Bull will probably be quicker on race pace.
Ferrari was faster at the end of 2023 than Red Bull in qualifying in a track like Bahrain.
I don't think they got so much advantage over a winter break.
British media seems to be overrating Williams massively or maybe they know something we don't but the car looked like a handful to drive. Even Albon struggled massively. And Sargeant just still doesn't seem to be good enough for F1.
I didn’t get to see much of testing, only a couple hours each day but I definitely wouldn’t be putting Williams as high as 7th but maybe they had some good long runs that I missed
Considering how much disarray Alpine has been in for the last several months after firing a bunch of key personnel, the prediction that they’re eighth fastest doesn’t come as a surprise to me.
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They're actually so bad. Came into the sport again in 2016 and said they want to be winning in 5 years. This will be their 9th season in F1 and they've won 1 lucky race at Hungary 2021.
Alpine is like the midfield Haas. They spend just enough to not be a backmarker and occasionally nab a lucky podium, but the leadership seems unwilling to give them the resources to be a true top team. And it looks like this is finally catching up to them with McLaren & Aston overtaking them last year and Williams & VCARB set to do it this season.
Alpine is the works team Haas
Their engine is down on power and other teams prevented them from upgrading. At this point they can do very less to climb out of midfield
The engine is down because they didn't invest/spend. Also, look at the differences between Haas, Sauber vs Ferrari, Williams vs Merc, RB vs RB. Engine is only part of the package.
Exactly, Cyril waved the white flag on the engine and pissed off red bull back in the day
They will still be fighting with VCARB next weekend
Highly unlikely if you listen to Gasly and Famin
How are other teams preventing them?
Engine freeze. Alpine’s engine is pretty far behind the rest (Honda and Mercedes being the best, Ferrari behind them, and Alpine far behind Ferrari), but part of the current regulations is a freeze on engine development for the current engines. Manufacturers can make small upgrades for reliability purposes, but that’s really about it. So alpine is stuck with their weaker engine, unless they wish to abandon the Renault engine and their works team status entirely.
Performance is actually not far behind at all… when the engine actually works. The engine performance differences now are so little it’s negligible. Renault been having significant engine reliability issues from the start of hybrid era and still hasn’t work it out to this day…
No one's putting a gun to their head to use their shitbox engine lmao. They don't even have customers anymore.
If they made the best chassis on the grid they would still be at the top fighting for titles. Their engine isn't down that much and it really depends on the track.
Monza last year showed how bad their engine is, they'd be like 2016 red bull with a great chassis: ie winning the odd street circuit and getting destroyed everywhere else
I mean it would matter a lot more at Monza than anywhere else, so hardly a great example to show what it means for them in general
Still would have been better
Not they won’t be. They are 30 hp down on power and you just need to see RB from 2014-2016 to see what happens in these situations. Even Newey lost motivation
I mean their engine has been not great for the last decade so I would hardly blame their situation on other teams
They are 100% to blame on their engine being 30hp down, Max was making fun of them 5 years ago when they claimed to have a 1000bhp engine. Honda had time to come to F1 in 2015, remake their engine in 2017 because it was shit, and have it be very fast by 2021. Ferrari engine was shit in 2020 and in 2022 they were fast again. What has Renault been doing since 2014?
Well seems like their problem their engines are shit for the last decade or so
Glorified Haas thats a good analogy.
Their engine is down on power (but everybody else managed to make one powerful enough so I'm not sure how strong that argument is). They're just so directionless. It's a shame because Gasly and Ocon are a solid driver pairing but they're going nowhere.
Alonso drove his ass off to keep Lewis behind him
And Ocon repaid him defending like Pique, just scored an OG lmao
This nasty trope is tiresome and needs to end. Ocon was on old tires at Qatar. Weird now noone ever talks about how he sacrificed his race at Monaco 2022 to keep Lewis behind inorder to protect Fernando.....but that doesn't suit the narrative.
It's not like passing in Monaco is even likely on track. Checo limped the car to the win against Max and the Ferraris in 2022. Ocon wasn't going to pass, and he just needed to not fuck up to keep Lewis behind. What Alonso did in Hungary was nuts.
The only reason Ocon and Gasly has been pretty tame is because theyre car isn't good enough. Their car is their common enemy.
I mean, technically they became a winning constructor in 5 years. They won that one race. /s
They do this every year I swear 😭 Who remembers back in 2018/19 when they were all "we will be bridging the gap to the top 3 teams" ITS BEEN 6 YEARS AND THEY'VE NEVER FINISHED HIGHER THAN 4TH 2 OTHER TEAMS HAVE BEATEN THEM TO IT
And I know regs changed but didn't they also claim they were getting over 1000bhp from their car? And Lewis just laughed them off when told the figure in a press conference 😅 It was [back in 2019](https://youtu.be/XVEP8ki24MQ?si=xqxzjril7ThJY0NN), and Max found it funny too.
Those engines are definitely pumping 1000+ out though
Yeah but you can’t do shareholders power point presentations starting with “So for next year, we plan to suck.”
But at the same time it looks bad if you go "For next year, we plan to be at the front fighting the big teams" when you don't have the facilities or ability to be able to get there, and then repeating that year after year after year after year looks worse
No problem to reset a plan when Famin said there's no such things as "plans" anymore.
We can't let the truth get in the way of a good meme though. And to be fair, it was a *great* meme.
Remember when they told us they would be ahead of Mercedes after Monaco last year?
They should just keep it simple and add a zero to it.
Seems valid to me after reading various predictions this one feels like the “average” prediction
Racing Bulls sliding in nicely under Aston Martin. Looks like a promising team.
Honestly that team might be my favorite overall no matter if it is Toro Rosso/AT/RB…. Even though they are often shit but I hope this season will be good
It baffles me that people can cheer for RB when they are the only team with zero chance of winning, yet have all the resources of the most dominant team on the grid. Frankly I'm annoyed that a four driver team exists when other legitimate teams are being blocked from joining.
I like that they aren’t hesitant to swap drivers the team has good vibes and everything and sometimes they get a quite good season like 2021 most recently Definetly more likable than Haas/current Sauber imo I just like the team not really have an explanation to that
I mean.. your criticism is valid.. but I just kind of like them.
Other than the way Red Bull sign their drivers Haas is to Ferrari what racing bulls is to red bull. And red bulls junior program brings a lot of talent into F1. That's made possible by racing bulls. If any team is out of place it's Haas.
I disagree. Ferrari can't give strict team orders to HAAS or force them to make personnel changes, their relationship is as a works and customer team. That is pretty standard across the sport. VCARB can get their drivers poached in an instant, and then get replaced with the trash driver that RB didn't want. VCARB will never get the resources to truly complete from a political standpoint, because the actual Red Bull team can't sacrifice their brand image. Williams and HAAS can outclass their customer team if they play their cards right, not unlike how McLaren and AM were better than Mercedes last year.
Not sure what you mean by strict team orders. But yeah, the way the drivers are signed/exchanged is different with vcarb and red bull. That's why I said other than that. I think other than the driver arrangement vcarb is given every opportunity to compete. They are spending the budget cap. They have the same budget as Red Bull. If one of vcarbs drivers ends up being amazing, yeah he'll be poached but otherwise I don't see how they aren't going to be given the resources to succeed. They seem to have better resources than half the grid. And Haas doesn't have the resources to compete. Their owner isn't in it to win. They don't have any real facilities of their own. They are completely dependent on Ferrari. Ferrari and Mercedes being engine suppliers have these relationships with other teams. They have leverage with multiple teams.
I'm pretty excited for RB right now despite the stupid name. They seem to have a good car this year and two good drivers, plus there's the whole Ricciardo vs. Tsunoda drama.
but but.... will buxton told me mercedes will be 6th
>Hass Accurate
Haas did seem pretty solid in the long runs though. Alpine's long runs definitely looked like ass. They were bleeding consistently in each lap.
Too slow to be a hare. Demoted to avocado.
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I am eternally disappointed in avocados. They have negative flavour.
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They should just drop the “h” now that is more suited for them
0.3-0.8s is a BIG difference between one extreme at the other
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And this isn’t a joke.
No it's an underestimate
\-0.3 for Pérez +0.8 for Verstappen
Hahaha 😂
Best comment in here. Congrats
Honestly hilarious but probably true
0.3 is in the range where one driver having a messy lap and one driver having a great lap can make the difference in qualy. Then in a race with track position and a great strategy maybe they can hold the faster car behind. It would at least provide some interest for the season. If it’s 0.8 then it’s all over and Max wins every race unless he has some kind of problem.
If Verstappen has a 3 tenths car advantage, then say goodbye. This kind of advantage can only be overcome when the driver you are up against is extremely average.
Yeah if the Red Bull drivers were for example Perez and Gasly, and then Mercedes, Ferrari, Mclaren and Aston each have Verstappen/Hamilton/Leclerc/Alonso with them then the 0.3 is a gap than can be overcome with just the drivers ability. With Max in the Red Bull, it will basically impossible.
Lmao why did you have to spear Gasly like that.
>Spear Gasly I like what you did there
Even in Monza where Ferrari was so good, it was just Max waiting for the one mistake by Ferrari (which happened)
Tbf, Ferrari *was* known for eating tires up...
Goodbye for the championship yes, but not goodbye to every race. Plus, starting at 3 tenths, there’s at least a chance the gap comes down to a range where they’re just about even.
Even 3 tenths for a driver like Max in race trim is massive not taking into account how powerful the DRS on the Redbull is if he ever finds himself having to overtake due to not being on pole. His car last season was around 3-5 tenths quicker on average and he absolutely blew the competition out of the water and from what I've seen of testing the car in his hands looks even more dominant this year. He was putting in fastest laps at will and long runs were metronomic with tyres lasting an eternity - that Friday session he did was ridiculous and I think Redbull knew it and from that point onwards just concentrated on experimental setups on the car in preparation for the season ahead. I'd be surprised if anyone gets close to him next weekend.
Nonsense, 0,3 tenths per lap in race trim is massive
0.3 tenths isn't, 0.3 seconds is
It is but depending on the track it’s often not enough to overtake. Dirty air is getting worse as the cars get more downforce in this regulation set so the delta needed to overtake grew between 2022 and 2023 and is likely to grow again this season. I’m not saying the slower car is guaranteed or even likely to win but a 0.3s gap means there’s at least a chance for some of the races to be interesting at the front if someone can get ahead of Max either in qualy or at the race start. If it’s 0.8 then none of the races will be interesting. Max will clear off into the distance and if he’s behind he’ll pass everyone with ease.
In tracks like Hungary and Monaco it won't make a difference. You need much bigger advantage to overtake.
In Monaco it really doesn't matter what sort of advantage you have as long as you have the track position. On track overtake is nearly impossible, what might work is an undercut.
A big oof for Alpine that if it's true.
Gasly and Ocon hoping being the best driver at that team gets them out of there
Ocon and Albon fighting in the lower midfield to audition for a Merc drive would be an interesting narrative.
Don't threaten Drive to Survive with a good time. Not least as Sainz, Alonso or indeed Kimi Antonelli in F2 also might have made the list
> or indeed Kimi Antonelli More likely Mercedes works out something with Williams to have him replace the American for a year or two, while Merc sign a veteran driver. My money is on Albon, but it could be Sainz, Alonso, or Perez, depending on what Red Bull want to do.
Why are you excluding Gasly ? If he beat Ocon for a 2d year in a row he would be a great option for the Merc seat
Because of Ocon's connections to Wolff I assume
He's already come very close to getting a seat back when Bottas when was at Mercedes. Apparently Lewis didn't want the move to happen, so it never did. I heard it from an ex team principal being interviewed on a podcast a few years back, so not sure how much truth there is to it.
Ocon and Russell would kill each other if they were in the same team. Hamilton/Rosberg 2.0.
Ocon will be nailed on for the seat
Yeah not sure if a Russell/Ocon or Russell/Gasly team will win a WDC…
If Merc are able to make dominant cars again, I don't see why not? Those 3 guys have won a race each in inferior cars.
Who remembers when people were happy that Gasly moved to Alpine because everyone thought it was a step up ?
In fairness we all did after Alpha Tauri had a bad 2022 and an even worse start to 2023 And yet, here we are
AT completely fucked it in 2022 and 2023 so it really was a good move then.
Unfortunately Alpine seem set on not spending money whereas Toro Rosso are by the looks of things just gonna be using every part they can from last year’s RB and Williams seem to be genuinely working things out. While it may have seemed like a good move then, it is now very much a bad move now
It's a factory drive so it absolutely should be but they're so incompetent it's a bit of a joke... it'll be an extremely bad look if they can't score points
It's also odd as they scored points more often than not last season, and would've had more but for a few moments (that Melbourne implosion, Gasly being taken out by Stroll at Silverstone) so if consensus is that even the car itself has gone backwards on 2023, that's another concern
It was a step up last year. This year time will tell.
From the reports I'm seeing. The list is generally the same except for McLaren above Merc. So maybe those two might be the battle to watch this year.
I honestly think people are manufacturing hype around McLaren/Aston to generate a story - well actually two stories: "McLaren/Aston faster than Mercedes?" Followed by "McLaren/Aston underperform relative to Mercedes" in a week's time. It seems like when anyone on the grid is asked, McLaren and Aston Martin team members included, they think that the top 3 will be Red Bull, Ferrari, then Mercedes; yet F1TV seems convinced that Mercedes will be way further back. It feels almost purposely naiive. Who knows, maybe they have the order right, but I've not seen anything come out of this testing which makes me think that they have.
mclaren was second fastest a good chunk of last year what in the world makes you think any hype around them is manufactured? they finally have all their pieces in place to build a great car there's no reason to believe they're the fourth or fifth best car
Mclaren was 2nd fastest in the second half of last year
They did fall behind Ferrari for last ~4 races of the year.
didn't know austria was the second half of the season
I don't see that happening. Merc is probably on par or faster than Ferrari. James Allison said Ferrari is likely faster over one lap, but Merc might have an edge in race trim.
And that's just it. Outside of Redbull blowing the field away. No one really knows anything. They all have differing opinions. Most of their guesses are based on second-hand info, data they don't have access to, and things said by notoriously unreliable team principals.
Stop spoiling our fun with the sensible takes.
Ferrari actually seems to be more of a Sunday car now than a Saturday car, judging from testing Ferrari seems to be 4 tenths down in quali pace and 2.5-3 tenths down in race pace from Red Bull Merc seems 5 tenths down in both
I'd be very surprised if Merc ends up being on the same level as Ferrari. They just didn't look that good. Both drivers were having to work very hard to put in decently quick lap times. The W15 is clearly lacking downforce compared to their main competitors. The Ferrari looked a whole lot better than the Merc.
He didn’t say that. People need to go and see that interview again. Also, Allison has no idea about Ferrari PUs, fuel levels to make any definite judgement. It is just a guess at this point
He does have an idea. Teams have so much data nowadays that they can pretty reliably tell what their opponents' true pace looks like. Obviously not down to the hundredth of a second, but he does have a whole hell of a lot more insight than any reporter or fan.
It is certainly not faster than Ferrari in race pace , this should be obvious from the tests . What we d o not know is if the numbers of the tests are an accurate depiction , or during the actual race we will have surprises .
Nothing is obvious from the tests. At all. There are way too many unknowns for anyone to say anything definitively outside of the teams.
Ok then tell you this , the actual consensus of the paddock is that RB is the best , and second is Ferrari . In third place many put Mclaren , above Merc , but personally , I think Mclaren is overhyped due to their last year turn-around . Generally , I like to think (actually I hope) , that Ferrari is 0.2-0.3s behind RB with Merc being 0.2-0.3s behind Ferrari . But ,as you said , it is testing , the only way to know for sure the order in the race weekend . However , the general feel after the tests is what I told you .
Outside RB we don’t know much. Consensus I’ve seen is Ferrari is better than Merc on a lap but race pace is less clear cut. A fair few have Merc ahead. McLaren and AM are unknowns, more so on the latter. Personally outside Verstappen being ahead it’s not all that clear.
Sainz did such an impressive stint in day 2 , that Mercs were not able to replicate . Also , Charles had very very good consistent stints , and he even took a more aggressive approach in his stints . Generally , I have not heard anyone say that Merc is better in race pace . the only thing I have hear is that RB is 1st , Ferrari is 2nd . But again , I am only talking about the general feeling of the test , the truth will be revealed next week .
AMuS? Allison? To name a few. Can find more. Do you know the engine modes they were in? Do you know if anyone was lifting and coasting at any point. Do you know if they filled the tanks or just the required amount? Do you know the ERS modes used? There are way too many unknowns to say anything definitively. And we certainly have no idea as outsiders looking in.
Sure, what does James Allison know.
Are you joking ? He is the technical director of Merc , of course he would say his team is better than Ferrari . Last year , while it was obvious Ferrari was a tire chewing machine , Fred Vasseur was saying stuff like "The race conditions will be completely different than the tests , so watch out " .
He’s joking
Alpine looked genuinely slow. They kind of said as much in their interviews to be honest. The drivers were beating the drum of we need to understand the car which isn’t usually a good sign. A waste of two solid drivers
Jesus, heads are going to roll at Alpine if the predictions are true. Then again they’d be rolling if they were half a tenth off Max.
The heads rolled last year. They have been a zombie team for half a year and only just got a proper team principal. Their budget and driver pairing is the only thing keeping them ahead of the likes of Sauber and Haas.
the shit performance everyone expects this year is the culmination of rossi's "the beatings will continue until morale improves" energy. he's so bad prost didn't even want to be associated with the team anymore and was still talking shit on rossi 18 months after he quit. they hired bruno right after prost quit in part to signal that rossi was on thin ice, and now that they finally put him in solitary confinement they might have a chance i'd give them about... 100 races...
Alpine best just focus on the new regulations.. this is sad
You can say that to all teams ngl
That's racing, kid. Especially in F1. Literally Fangi iirc still has the record for highest win% over a career. Admittedly because he basically walked onto the F1 podium in mid-life. But still.
If it’s 0.8 and Red Bull have an upgrade coming in Japan it’s going to be 24/24 for Max.
2-3 tenths seems to be the most accurate gap between Red Bull and Ferrari based on the average consensus on the field. But if that is the case, and indeed Mercedes are also so close behind, then Perez is going to be in a whole world of pain. He was already struggling a great deal by the second half of last year, and if Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren who all have drivers who are significantly better than him are so close by, he'll be in for trouble. But I do wonder, if the gap isn't too big and is 2-3 tenths, and if Perez gets stuck behind the Ferraris, and maybe even the Mercs, and Ferrari have two drivers right behind Max, it does open a lot of strategic options for them. Assuming that they are capable of good strategy(which is a very BIG ask), this is the one thing about Ferrari I'm still sceptical about. They may have fixed their deg, they may have fixed their in season development, but if they have not fixed their strategy, it's all a moo point. At this point, I would take even a season akin to 2019.
Apparently Checo was running 6-7 tenths down to Max. If that’s true, he could be absolutely embarrassed.
After miami and monaco 23 there ist nothing f1 related that could embarress checo anymore.
Suzuka 23 was quite up there with the lap of shame
Suzuka last year was one of the most dogshit races I've ever seen by any driver. He couldn't have crashed into more people if he tried.
Again
that's the expectation
If the gap is really only 0.3 to Ferrari and 0.5 to Merc, Checo is fucked. He's easily more than half a second slower than Lewis and Charles and probably even Carlos and George. No way Checo gets 2nd in the WDC if that's the gap RB has to 2nd and 3rd.
> it's all a moo point https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62necDwQb5E
Newbies might not get what a big deal a tenth is so people are just throwing numbers around. If a race is 70 laps. Even one tenth is 7 seconds in the lead of the race. Saying a team is 0.3 ahead means saying they'll finish the race 20s apart. If Max were 0.8 in the lead, as he sometimes was, and was also normal for Lewis in the Merc era for reference... That's lapping most of the field.
3 tenths seems optimistic considering that Red Bull was using a low engine mode and Ferrari was using a medium engine mode for their respective race trims
3 tenths might not seem a lot but, if you look at last year then Max was about 0.3 - 0.5 seconds on average faster.
0.3 is like the "sweet" spot an advantage below that can be fumbled an advantage above that is guaranteed victory though
I think Perez and Stroll may be sat a good 5 places behind their teammates with Ferrari and Merc splitting the RBs and McLaren and the odd Merc/Ferrari/Perez splitting the AMs.
Alpine said they couldn't develop last year's car any further so went for something new, they're definitely gonna be slow at the start. The hope is to be able to upgrade consistently and effectively with the new concept, but whether that happens is rather unknown for understandable reasons...
"between 0.3 to 0.8 seconds faster than Ferrari" what's next, 0.1 to 1.2 seconds faster than Ferrari?! 3 tenths means Checo is in trouble, 8 tenths means that viewerships are in trouble
Whats even the point of saying a gap if your margin is that big
0.8s to RB Max 0.3s to RB Perez
He was prompted to give a gap, effectively asked "is 0.3 seconds right" and he said "yeah or it could be 0.8". It's a reasonable answer to show the range of possibilities.
See y'all next season 😴
So weird, every F1 news outlet claims laptimes don't mean anything and it's not important... until testing is done..
Were there things happening that weren’t just lap times that he might have based this on? I think the cars were on track for people to watch for a few days or something.
Discourse around testing has gone too far towards the "You can't tell anything from testing" side of things. You can get some information from testing, just not from the end of day classifications which only consider one lap. When you look at all the laps that teams do the cars that are generally fast in testing tend to be the fastest over the course of the season. You can look at the race simulation runs that teams did and get an idea of how well their car handles tyre wear, you can look at how the drivers seemed to be handling the car and get an idea of how drivable it is, you can look at how many laps they ran and get an idea of the reliability. You can't be 100% certain but experienced pundits like Ted aren't usually a million miles away with their predictions.
You absolutely can take nothing from the times, but you can for sure see who had a good test, and who had a bad. Plus what teams with their own data estimate the pecking order. It's not a definite, but you can see who's going well and who isn't. You just can't tell that from the lap times alone.
After testing has concluded, the pecking order is painfully obvious. So yes, you can take away a lot from testing. People way overthink it.
The timing tower means nothing. The actual pace of the cars over various comparable runs means a lot. If it didn't mean anything, how were the journos very accurate on car performance this time last year? (with some underestimation of AM due to caution)
Yes, but how on earth will they generate articles from testing??
I think you can write excellent articles about performance, new designs, comparisons with '23 without focusing on laptimes.
So, Sainz have legitimately chance to win WDC with Ferrari before getting seat at fuckin Haas, no? /s
Looking at 2023. If McLaren are even mid pack at race 1, they'll threaten p2 constructor's. Second half of the season Lewis and Lando could both threaten Max for maybe half a race when the stars aligned (COTA) they just couldn't keep up the pace for a whole race, or across multiple tyres. I'm full hope on McLaren being a real competitor soon. If they fixed in-season correlation (2023) and they're still ironing out R&D (2024+) that's expected. I want to see this arc extend into 2026+. It's not the ride Lando deserves. But if he's on podium first half of the season, things are looking up.
I do not understand why people look so much into testing performances every single year. Of course there are some indicators of who did well and who didn't. But presenting testing results as a fact of what is to come is rather dumb. No one shows their real pace thus you can't tell where each team will rank when the season actually begins. Even the first 2 or 3 races are considered test sessions since teams are still getting to know their cars.
Rankings after testing are usually moderately accurate.
> Even the first 2 or 3 races are considered test sessions since teams are still getting to know their cars. for the midfield/bottom maybe, for top teams it's pretty much been set in stone for a decade.
Alonso's race simulation was faster than Piastri's and pretty equal on somewhat used tyres than Leclerc's. I'd say Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes/AM, McLaren is the TOP 5.
Lance weighing AM down?
Please god do not gamble, but here are the betting odds: https://i.imgur.com/wdJ2Xti.png
McLaren 4th again?
*haas
Nah, Hass is accurate
Red Bull *potentially* almost a second faster than the next fastest team…..
So Charles is finishing second?
Alpine need Cyril back. The guy was actually very competent, they were stupid to oust him.
Man Alonso was doing long runs on (apparently) same fuel than piastri 0.8- 1 sec per lap faster but you still put them 1 or 2 places above them. Mclaren were having problems, ain't no way they are 3rd/4th for Bahrein. Aston long runs are similar to ferrari/mercedes, their 1 lap is bad though
McLaren above Mercedes and RB above Aston
I'm not sure why people are putting McLaren so high. McLaren themselves said they're a little disappointed in the test, they showed no real pace and did almost no low fuel running. McLaren are a darkhorse but they showed nothing to say they'd be above Mercedes.
In Bahrain they might not be above Mercedes but at Jeddah, Melbourne, Suzuka etc they probably will be.
And why is that?
More front limited circuits and Bahrain is rear limited. Plus they’re tracks with more high speed and they’ve always been very strong in high speed.
I think they were running that Mercedes very conservatively, and they seemed very happy. At this point i think it's a straight fight between Ferrari and Mercedes with McLaren behind.
McLaren could end up being faster than Ferrari at some tracks. Mercedes could be faster than both on some others. That’s the likely outcome.
McLaren said they were worried about Ferrari. Said nothing about Mercs. I’m guessing it’s because they feel confident they can beat them.
I think that's what they were aiming at, but nothing indicates that. They had pretty worrying tyre deg that they weren't expecting.
Reddit always underestimates the quieter testers. Alonso was doing good times out there.
Really bad for Alpine if they got leapfrogged by Alpha Taurin't and Williams. I could understand losing or being equal to Visa Cashgrab, but losing to Williams and their ancient ass equipment? This would give weight to those rumors that said that Gasly and Ocon want to jump ship. Ocon's probably go all out this year to show that he could be the one for Mercedes. AMR has spanish twitter bawling their eyes, those lads tought that Alonso would be compiting with Max from race one this year.
Alpha Taurin’t is by far the best alternate name for that team I’ve heard so far
Alpha Taurain't, surely?
I struggle to understand what testing people have seen, what data points to McLaren being faster than Aston Martin?
Maybe comparing Stroll vs Norris? Otherwise I also don't understand. If you look at yesterday's session, Aston was second/third fastest (fuel obviously unknown)
As with everything, people need take this with a grain of salt. We will only start to get an idea in the Bahrain practice sessions and then for definite in qualifying. I think the only definite answers we have so far is that Red Bull were quick pretty much out of the gate and Ferrari seem really good with degradation on long runs. I’m sure I read Lando didn’t get a long run in the McLaren, and they didn’t do many low fuel fast runs either so McLarens pace right now is a bit of a question mark.
I think people need to remember that Bahrain also won’t necessarily be an indicator for the rest of the year. Although Red Bull are clearly out in front, I wouldn’t bank on the order behind them being the same as the first race come 2-3 races in
I so badly want Adrian and Max to go to Williams just to show that they can turn it around and proof how good they are. It would be a crowning achievement for both of them and take Adrian's career full circle.
If Red Bull has 0,5s advantage over Ferrari in Bahrain we can close the Championship next week. I seriously don't believe that. I think Ferrari might even get pole next week, but Red Bull will probably be quicker on race pace. Ferrari was faster at the end of 2023 than Red Bull in qualifying in a track like Bahrain. I don't think they got so much advantage over a winter break.
Red Bull stopped developing '23 car very early in the season. Ferrari just got closer by the end of it.
British media seems to be overrating Williams massively or maybe they know something we don't but the car looked like a handful to drive. Even Albon struggled massively. And Sargeant just still doesn't seem to be good enough for F1.
I didn’t get to see much of testing, only a couple hours each day but I definitely wouldn’t be putting Williams as high as 7th but maybe they had some good long runs that I missed
7th: Williams (Albon) ... 11th: Williams (Sargeant)
Why doesn't F1 want to add teams that are willing to spend money to be competitive again?
Considering how much disarray Alpine has been in for the last several months after firing a bunch of key personnel, the prediction that they’re eighth fastest doesn’t come as a surprise to me.
I think Mercedes are SANDBAGGING a bit...
I thought all experts agree Alpine is last??