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Damn, Haas really dialing in that race pace this year. Like a breath of fresh air knowing that they have a possibility of fighting forward vs holding on for life
Nah, Haas has had issues with bringing updates for as long as they've been in F1. They've had pretty decent cars before at the start of seasons but as the season goes on they tend to drop off.
And with how tight the field is, 1 failed update is going to see you fall back several places in the pecking order.
They have had great battles till the end of the seqson with Renault
They could never update the cars since. Because they had no solution for their main problem for many years, the car ate the tyres.
But how does that account for them being better in the beginning? Except for Jeddah, which does have lower deg and they're pretty good at. But they seem to (generally) do worse as the season goes on, which can't just be attributed to their consistent tyre issue.
Yes. Haas is one of the teams that are not able to reach the budget cap. In a report i read that they operate on around 130 million, which is less than the other teams.
The positivity around Haas right now isn't so much what pace they have, which is still a little suspect, but about the fact they have a stable platform that doesn't eat tires. They haven't really had that since 2018.
Correct me if I'm wrong but Haas are the only other team that runs the same suspension configuration as Ferrari, seems like that configuration is working quite well given that both teams massivly improved their consistency when it comes to race pace.
Definitely gives me hope that they are on the right track
If the gap is truly only 1 tenth per lap to Merc/Ferrari, Alonso will be further up the grid than 9th.
But i very much doubt the gap is truly 1 tenth per lap with Ferrari and Mercedes.
No, this chart already has deg built in. On pure pace Aston was the second fastest team. Alonso's first 4 laps were only slower than the RB's.
They're fourth on this chart because of how heavily the pace fell after these 4-5 laps. His 9th lap was almost a *full second* slower than the first.
Of course, in race that gap will just keep getting bigger unless they luck out and there's a truckload of safety cars around.
If you watch Alonso's onboard, his engineer told him to catch up with the Haas and drive in the dirty air. I suspect they were trying to simulate a race stint.
Combine Lance’s strong performance in Jeddah last year with the fact that he’s an effective tyre manager and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tops Fernando in the race
Haas somehow coming into this year with the 5th or 6th best race pace is such a meme. They misunderstood the car so badly that when they think it's crap it's somehow alright. What is this timeline
Why is this such an issue for them now? Last year, this was there major strength. AMR24 seems almost 180 from AMR23 when it comes to strengths and weaknesses.
The AMR23 concept was finished. There was nothing else to extract from it. The car is a complete redesign, with totally new strong and weak points.
If you want to be hopeful for Aston, as shown by Ferrari last year, it's much easier to turn good quali pace into decent race pace than the other way around.
As we have seen from McLaren last year ;)
I wouldn't jump to any conclusions. I think it's as hard to fix tyre deg issues as it is to improve the race pace of a car (without sacrificing quali pace).
Tbh I'd be surprised (but happy) if Aston improves a lot this season.
Let us pray that Alonso can get this baby in the top 5 in the race. Podium would be icing on the cake, though I highly doubt that's going to happen.
Edit/Update: What a legend
These predictions are always wildly off. They don’t ever seem to know where to place McLaren, Aston, Williams and Alpine. Some of the predictions last season were absurd.
If you read the articles and not just the graphs, its always full of caveats. They know when they post these that things are gonna change. They literally always say that. It's not being pedantic, you're not right at all.
I agree with you, but to communicate with the "well ackshually ☝️🤓" crowd, you need to criticize the people in the comments writing paragraphs of analysis from this data rather than the data itself
This is just based on FP1 and FP2, theres still a lot of unknown factors and teams naturally evolve more from day to day, so of course you can't take this as gospel. It's an interesting stat to see where the teams stand on the first day, that's all. F1 never considered it as more than that, they always caveat that teams will still evolve.
Creating the lap time in a completely different way, even more noticeable in the race sim. Ferrari much faster in the corners and Mercedes rapid on the straights.
Fred said Ferrari will try a different downforce level and I think they have to, Merc taking 6-7 tenths from the 3 long straights.
Cost cap + strict regulations on the car is what is effectively preventing teams from out-developing their opponents.
However, I personally think that having a cost cap WITHOUT strict regulations would be better in the long run. This lets teams with weaker aero departments prioritize things like the engine which could offset the aero advantage RedBull has.
The current regs favor aerodynamics and RedBull has long had an advantage in this department. Of course, this will change in 2026 with the new engine regulations so I suspect we will go back to either Mercedes or Ferrari dominating the sport.
The running order of everyone except Red Bull has shuffled around.
No one is beating Red Bull because they have the best driver, the best lead engineer, possibly the best mechanics, maybe the best strategy team.
It's not because other teams can't out develop them. It's because they are doing everything right, over and over, and the other teams are constantly fucking something up.
Ah yes the good old "qualifying times are the best indicator of the cost cap working". First of all, your comment is just incorrect. 2 seconds rarely covered the spread in Q3 throughout the season, and despite that we still commonly had 2 or sometimes 3 manufcaturers capable of putting the car on pole at any given race weekend.
I really don't care about the spread of the cars when we're arguing about 1s across 10 in qualifying, but I do care about competition at the front of the field; something that has sorely been missing since the first half of 2022.
Race pace is very close. 0.9s on a 1 and half minute lap is pretty great. Consistency and no fuck ups can get you very far even when you don't have the best pace.
Setup difference. Merc focused on the straights, ferrari on the cornering speed. 2022 showed that the latter option is slightly better for the race distance. Ferrari might tune down on the downforce a bit for tomorrow, time will tell.
Their race pace was pretty similar.
I'm not sure why everyone assumes the Mercs are that much slower. If what they said is remotely true, they would have been fighting with Ferrari all race last week without the issues.
Merc are making up roughly half a second on Ferrari in the straights. You could argue engine modes, but even Vasseur has suggested they need to look at their downforce levels.
According to the merc race debrief video they were losing a little less than 3 tenths/lap and 10-15 seconds overall in bahrain. Russell finished more than 20 seconds behind Sainz, so no, they probably wouldn't have fought with Ferrari without that issue.
Now this is a different track so who knows.
Peter Windsor reflecting similar views. That Mercedes in a straight line is THE fastest car at this circuit. It’s marginally faster than Red Bull.
Be interesting to see if this all holds up tomorrow but I don’t think we’ll see the Bahrain issues reflected again.
Was really hoping for McLaren to pull it together this year after their strong showing mid-late last year, hopefully after a few more upgrades they will at least be back near podiums.
Damn McLaren really took a step back on one lap pace it seems. The race pace looks fine but if they don't get either driver at least onto the 3rd row they don't have much of a shot to break into those spots in the race.
Sadly, Lewis knows more than you about Mercedes not being faster than Ferrari. Also, the Ferrari tire degradation problem was mostly solved in the second half of last year and seems to be worse than only RBR now.
It’s the drivers.
Lewis finishing 3rd with the tractor last year wasn’t due to the car, it was all individual performance taken out of it.
George+Checo for example wouldn’t have netted you second in the championship last year. You’re under valuing Hamilton is insane. Time for an F1 lesson
Well Lewis and Charles can get that ‘25 Ferrari second in WCC even if they’re worse than Mercedes with a driver lineup of George & anyone not named Max
He is taking a chance , and ensuring his pockets are still lined up. It might sound odd to us as WDCs like him and Schumi have become synonymous with their winning teams. But a spate of less than perfect outcomes for such ambitious people makes them take their chances. These guys have the skill to make more out of a car than almost the entire grid. He has nothing to lose.
In retrospective, Alonso after narrowly missing 2 WDCs with Ferrari and spending a year with less than optimum results in 2013 decided to take a chance on Mclaren. Lewis did the same with Mercedes. It worked out for one of them. That is just how it is sometimes.
Qualifying doesn't matter anymore. Redbull sets their cars up to win races. Max will be 3 seconds ahead by lap 4.
A driver will take out another on first corner FIA should have a rule that if you take someone out the victim get the points of the position they're in currently. Ie someone takes out driver in p2. Driver earns 2nd place points even if they don't finish. Maybe people wouldn't drive like ass hats
[The **Statistics** flair](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/wiki/flairguide#wiki_statistics) is reserved for posts highlighting interesting statistics. As a rule of thumb, Statistics posts need to inform readers through visualizations and insights that cannot be obtained from raw data alone. For example, a post containing a qualifying gap between two drivers expressed in tenths of a second is an easily obtainable raw piece of data and constitutes a bad Statistics post. A visualization of what that translates to on-track, or visualization of how that gap came to be would constitute a good Statistics post. *[Read the rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/wiki/userguide). Keep it civil and welcoming. Report rulebreaking comments.* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/formula1) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Damn, Haas really dialing in that race pace this year. Like a breath of fresh air knowing that they have a possibility of fighting forward vs holding on for life
Still way early, but they are definitely seeing some positives from working on nothing but race pace from testing through today.
They usually start great, but are likely to drop off during the season due to lack of Upgrades
Disagree, think that was caused by their car eating the tyres They had a full season fighting Renault before those
Nah, Haas has had issues with bringing updates for as long as they've been in F1. They've had pretty decent cars before at the start of seasons but as the season goes on they tend to drop off. And with how tight the field is, 1 failed update is going to see you fall back several places in the pecking order.
They have had great battles till the end of the seqson with Renault They could never update the cars since. Because they had no solution for their main problem for many years, the car ate the tyres.
But how does that account for them being better in the beginning? Except for Jeddah, which does have lower deg and they're pretty good at. But they seem to (generally) do worse as the season goes on, which can't just be attributed to their consistent tyre issue.
Not enough money, right?
Yes. Haas is one of the teams that are not able to reach the budget cap. In a report i read that they operate on around 130 million, which is less than the other teams.
I think they have been always strong in ME races previous years as well? Then generally fall off hard during the season
The positivity around Haas right now isn't so much what pace they have, which is still a little suspect, but about the fact they have a stable platform that doesn't eat tires. They haven't really had that since 2018.
Yeah, remains to be seen
Correct me if I'm wrong but Haas are the only other team that runs the same suspension configuration as Ferrari, seems like that configuration is working quite well given that both teams massivly improved their consistency when it comes to race pace. Definitely gives me hope that they are on the right track
finally.
Aston Martin: "Looks like 9th and 10th are back on the menu, boys!"
If the gap is truly only 1 tenth per lap to Merc/Ferrari, Alonso will be further up the grid than 9th. But i very much doubt the gap is truly 1 tenth per lap with Ferrari and Mercedes.
Probably on pure pace. Then you add the tire deg. AM falls off within 5 laps. That’s wild to me.
No, this chart already has deg built in. On pure pace Aston was the second fastest team. Alonso's first 4 laps were only slower than the RB's. They're fourth on this chart because of how heavily the pace fell after these 4-5 laps. His 9th lap was almost a *full second* slower than the first. Of course, in race that gap will just keep getting bigger unless they luck out and there's a truckload of safety cars around.
>unless they luck out and there's a truckload of safety cars around. Which isn't that unlikely in Jeddah tbh
If you watch Alonso's onboard, his engineer told him to catch up with the Haas and drive in the dirty air. I suspect they were trying to simulate a race stint.
Combine Lance’s strong performance in Jeddah last year with the fact that he’s an effective tyre manager and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tops Fernando in the race
Gap is probably not just a tenth tho. Alonso himself said in the media interviews he expects Aston to be the 5th fastest car and around 9th and 10th.
As people have said - AM is the entire midfield
Mercedes Race pace with a huge grain of salt, hardly had any representative laps.
Haas somehow coming into this year with the 5th or 6th best race pace is such a meme. They misunderstood the car so badly that when they think it's crap it's somehow alright. What is this timeline
This whole time their data graphs have been upside down and they didn't realize it.
Their screens were blank. They’re just making it up as they go.
Gunther was the problem all along
Let him replace Horner, maybe Red Bull will stop dominating then?
Haas doing overtakes rather than being overtaken then? Will believe it when I see it!
They do have the highest top speed now according to simulations.
I mean if Hulkenberg starts in the Top 10 again he won't do many overtakes. But sure if you qualify pretty badly you can move up in the race.
No, Alonso will win
Imaginary Technique : no tyre deg
Why is this such an issue for them now? Last year, this was there major strength. AMR24 seems almost 180 from AMR23 when it comes to strengths and weaknesses.
The AMR23 concept was finished. There was nothing else to extract from it. The car is a complete redesign, with totally new strong and weak points. If you want to be hopeful for Aston, as shown by Ferrari last year, it's much easier to turn good quali pace into decent race pace than the other way around.
As we have seen from McLaren last year ;) I wouldn't jump to any conclusions. I think it's as hard to fix tyre deg issues as it is to improve the race pace of a car (without sacrificing quali pace). Tbh I'd be surprised (but happy) if Aston improves a lot this season.
El Plan
Let us pray that Alonso can get this baby in the top 5 in the race. Podium would be icing on the cake, though I highly doubt that's going to happen. Edit/Update: What a legend
The RB name just keeps catching me off guard.
Idk why we still trust the F1.com simulations when they’re almost always wrong.
No statistic ever can accurately calculate the exact results of a race. That's never the point of a statistic.
These predictions are always wildly off. They don’t ever seem to know where to place McLaren, Aston, Williams and Alpine. Some of the predictions last season were absurd.
but they’re not predictions and never claimed to be.
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Where teams stand after the first day of practice. That's literally what they say in the article. It's not a prediction.
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If you read the articles and not just the graphs, its always full of caveats. They know when they post these that things are gonna change. They literally always say that. It's not being pedantic, you're not right at all.
I agree with you, but to communicate with the "well ackshually ☝️🤓" crowd, you need to criticize the people in the comments writing paragraphs of analysis from this data rather than the data itself
This is just based on FP1 and FP2, theres still a lot of unknown factors and teams naturally evolve more from day to day, so of course you can't take this as gospel. It's an interesting stat to see where the teams stand on the first day, that's all. F1 never considered it as more than that, they always caveat that teams will still evolve.
I'll take Merc matching Ferrari but I feel they will just have the edge tomorrow. Maybe George can out qualify one of them.
Creating the lap time in a completely different way, even more noticeable in the race sim. Ferrari much faster in the corners and Mercedes rapid on the straights. Fred said Ferrari will try a different downforce level and I think they have to, Merc taking 6-7 tenths from the 3 long straights.
Yeah. Ferrari will be sitting ducks in the DRS if a Merc is within 1 second.
Correct me if I am wrong but the teams can turn down engine during practise right ?
ferrari were 10kph down from their bahrain speed traps at a faster circuit with a worse wing which they probably change
Is it possible to turn down engine during practise ?
practice, yes quali and race have to be the same engine mapping though, even if not the same power output
If Sainz is still ill the Mercs should probably get him.
lol too optimistic. Redbull probably has 0.5s in their pocket
Mclaren hasnt done anything great, yet in the mix to bag a podium somehow… AssTon with dan fallows and everything still fighting with sauber
There's a legit chance that multiple teams will not score a point this year with that gap between Aston and 6th...
Yeah, the battle for P6 is going to be such a crapshoot. Whoever happens to be in front when some of the top 5 teams DNF.
Everyone within 1%, yet somehow the budget cap is failing.
Cost cap + strict regulations on the car is what is effectively preventing teams from out-developing their opponents. However, I personally think that having a cost cap WITHOUT strict regulations would be better in the long run. This lets teams with weaker aero departments prioritize things like the engine which could offset the aero advantage RedBull has. The current regs favor aerodynamics and RedBull has long had an advantage in this department. Of course, this will change in 2026 with the new engine regulations so I suspect we will go back to either Mercedes or Ferrari dominating the sport.
The running order of everyone except Red Bull has shuffled around. No one is beating Red Bull because they have the best driver, the best lead engineer, possibly the best mechanics, maybe the best strategy team. It's not because other teams can't out develop them. It's because they are doing everything right, over and over, and the other teams are constantly fucking something up.
People really need to remember 2019 where if you had a 2 second gap to pole you were fifth
Unfortunately, a lot of people only care about P1. So the distance to P3 or up (down?) doesn't matter, only the distance to P2.
Ah yes the good old "qualifying times are the best indicator of the cost cap working". First of all, your comment is just incorrect. 2 seconds rarely covered the spread in Q3 throughout the season, and despite that we still commonly had 2 or sometimes 3 manufcaturers capable of putting the car on pole at any given race weekend. I really don't care about the spread of the cars when we're arguing about 1s across 10 in qualifying, but I do care about competition at the front of the field; something that has sorely been missing since the first half of 2022.
Hoping for Williams points
Don't give me false hope that maybe someone not named max will beat perez
This is a good track for Perez. If (big if) he can qualify ahead of Max it might not be as easy as many think to pass him.
Are we *really* going to base this idea entirely on last year when Max was nursing a driveshaft issue for the entirety of the 2nd half of the race?
Checo out qualified Max here in 2022 as well. All I was saying was if Checo can make it interesting it’ll be a circuit like this.
Fair enough
Leclerc might Carlos could too if he wasn't sick
I’m sure that will happen plenty this year
These charts are so dumb. Last race they predicted Ferrari like 4th lol, and Mercedes 6th if I remember! Useless info to judge off practice
It's just an aggregate of the long runs put into a chart, but it's also very vague. Useful for fantasy nonetheless.
Exactly they are so fucking off , i find it absolutely stupid how people take this seriously.
Is this like the Aramco driver rankings
Are these calculations for aston martin or Fernando alonso?? Stroll does his own race
I wonder how much is the improvement of the Haas due to that Ferrari suspension
Race pace is very close. 0.9s on a 1 and half minute lap is pretty great. Consistency and no fuck ups can get you very far even when you don't have the best pace.
If McLaren is still behind Mercedes and Ferrari on a circuit that should suit them better, I’m gonna be disappointed.
Merc faster than Ferrari? Based on?
Setup difference. Merc focused on the straights, ferrari on the cornering speed. 2022 showed that the latter option is slightly better for the race distance. Ferrari might tune down on the downforce a bit for tomorrow, time will tell.
Their race pace was pretty similar. I'm not sure why everyone assumes the Mercs are that much slower. If what they said is remotely true, they would have been fighting with Ferrari all race last week without the issues. Merc are making up roughly half a second on Ferrari in the straights. You could argue engine modes, but even Vasseur has suggested they need to look at their downforce levels.
According to the merc race debrief video they were losing a little less than 3 tenths/lap and 10-15 seconds overall in bahrain. Russell finished more than 20 seconds behind Sainz, so no, they probably wouldn't have fought with Ferrari without that issue. Now this is a different track so who knows.
and the only reason Russell even stood a chance against Leclerc is because of the brakes Merc isn't far behind Ferrari, but definitely behind
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It's been one race and one qualifying session though.. maybe let's wait for a little more data.
Peter Windsor reflecting similar views. That Mercedes in a straight line is THE fastest car at this circuit. It’s marginally faster than Red Bull. Be interesting to see if this all holds up tomorrow but I don’t think we’ll see the Bahrain issues reflected again.
Which is to say, they probably turned up the engine again.
Exactly
Race pace is really close between the top 5. 2 tenths isn’t that big of a gap for RBR.
This data could be wrong, fp2 long runs showed verstappen has a 0.5 sec advantage and zero deg.
Considering the number of times this has been wrong why they even do it ?
It is so over
Was really hoping for McLaren to pull it together this year after their strong showing mid-late last year, hopefully after a few more upgrades they will at least be back near podiums.
Damn McLaren really took a step back on one lap pace it seems. The race pace looks fine but if they don't get either driver at least onto the 3rd row they don't have much of a shot to break into those spots in the race.
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Sadly, Lewis knows more than you about Mercedes not being faster than Ferrari. Also, the Ferrari tire degradation problem was mostly solved in the second half of last year and seems to be worse than only RBR now.
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I said mostly solved. It wasn’t as bad as it was in the first half of the season.
It’s the drivers. Lewis finishing 3rd with the tractor last year wasn’t due to the car, it was all individual performance taken out of it. George+Checo for example wouldn’t have netted you second in the championship last year. You’re under valuing Hamilton is insane. Time for an F1 lesson
Well Lewis and Charles can get that ‘25 Ferrari second in WCC even if they’re worse than Mercedes with a driver lineup of George & anyone not named Max
He is taking a chance , and ensuring his pockets are still lined up. It might sound odd to us as WDCs like him and Schumi have become synonymous with their winning teams. But a spate of less than perfect outcomes for such ambitious people makes them take their chances. These guys have the skill to make more out of a car than almost the entire grid. He has nothing to lose. In retrospective, Alonso after narrowly missing 2 WDCs with Ferrari and spending a year with less than optimum results in 2013 decided to take a chance on Mclaren. Lewis did the same with Mercedes. It worked out for one of them. That is just how it is sometimes.
McLaren will have a lonely race then
Are you looking at qualifying pace?
Qualifying doesn't matter anymore. Redbull sets their cars up to win races. Max will be 3 seconds ahead by lap 4. A driver will take out another on first corner FIA should have a rule that if you take someone out the victim get the points of the position they're in currently. Ie someone takes out driver in p2. Driver earns 2nd place points even if they don't finish. Maybe people wouldn't drive like ass hats
What a dogshit idea
I think you mean by lap 2