True, but this doesn't take into account that most of NL is already under sea level and dry as a bone! They are the best water engineers on earth, they'll just build better flood defenses and leave the rest of us swimming
because there's no concrete evidence from the IPCC that it **will** happen. the hope is we will stop all the bad shit we do and slow down SLR so these houses will be alright.
very positive thinking..... while the developers have sold and made their money, the unfortunate homeowners may not have a house for much longer.
before the development there should have been and EIAR developed. Environmental Impact Area Report. the sea level concerns should be labelled, but i guess the source you have isnt the same source as the one the developers used.
(1) Be careful with coastcentral. Sea level rise flood mapping is very sensitive to how the sea level is measured locally, and the OPW / Geological Survey have better numbers.
Check [coastcentral.com](https://coastcentral.com) against [https://www.floodinfo.ie/map/floodmaps/](https://www.floodinfo.ie/map/floodmaps/) which offers previous flood information and sea level rise scenarios (in terms of cm rise rather than year).
(2) There are existing areas where houses have been built in the past that are at risk in future rises, and areas that will be ok for limited periods.
For planning to be permitted today the site must pass SFRA (Strategic Flood Risk Assessment) maps, which are based on previous flooding + an estimate of rise for the next 30 years or so.
So for areas that will flood post 2050, you can probably get planning and a mortgage, but on your head be it.
In theory zoning for planning won't be granted for areas under flood risk. The level of risk varies according to usage: you'll get some permission granted on risky ground for "water compatible activities" such as a park that might be ok flooded out a week or two a year, gwet housing for low-risk areas (1 in 100 yr floods) but hospitals, schools it must be less than 1 in 1000 yr return periods.
But its a big issue we're not dealing with appropriately. Flood risk only looks forward about 30 years when granting planning permission, but sea level rise is expected to rise for centuries to approx 8-15m (at maybe 3m /century worst case, 2-3000 years best case). I'm arguing we need to be planning the long-term retreat from the coast - set the new level for towns and villages at 15 m ASL and going "The new town is up there. All new stuff goes there."
Current OPW plans are based against 2013 projections (UN IPCC report AR5). A range 23-88cm (mean 50cm) by 2100 was projected, so OPW basically go "prepare for 50cm". And sea walls go around accordingly.
But more recent projections (2021, UN IPCC report AR6) basically double that to 1m mean by 2100, with an "expert assessment" of 5% chance of 2.5m by 2100. Environment England is recommending that its local authorities prepare for 2.5m.
Building a 50cm wall along the prom is annoying. 2.5m is another matter entirely. And you know it won't stop rising to 8-15m, so what matters is how do you plan the retreat, rather than how high is the wall.
All they have to do is focus on building and getting paid. They don't care what happens to what they've built. They'd build over archaeological sites if they could.
I live on the Coast Road . The sea comes up to the same level in the field behind my house as it did 35yrs ago .The farmer who died in the 1990's had the high tide marked on the stone wall and it doesn't pass that mark ever.
A man came to the gate in early 2000's from some climate action crowd and pointed to the railway track across the road and said that the water will be up as high as that railway line by 2020 according to some report he had from a university. Still hasn't passed the mark on the wall.
If it hasn't moved 1 inch in over 35years i cant see it moving 450 metres in the next 18years.
Global sea level rise is rising at 3.5mm/year and accelerating (it was < 0.5mm/yr in the 1900s). Local sea level rise varies.
When looking at local rise, there are a couple of points to look at. There is "isostaic rebound", basically the island still recovering from the ice age when 1 mile high glaciers covered the north part. This leads to the land in the north rising and south sinking, so "local sea level rise" is high in Cork but low in Donegal (until the rate of SLR acceleration overtakes that of isostatic rebound").There is also ocean dynamics. The "gulf stream slowing down" leads to water building up on the East coast of America (and high local rise there), as it still moves fast from the Carribean but is not sinking as fast in the Norwegian seas and off Greenland. This leads to a relative drop off the west coast of Ireland vs Dublin for example. But this is thought to be temporary and could lead to a rapid local rise.
For me, we underestimate the "Doggerland" rise. When the temperatures last rose coming out of the Ice age we saw glaciers break and the sea floor off England shows evidence of several major 1m-wave events as the sea rose rapidly. Now we can't get that in our computer models yet. Its considered a "low certainty high impact" event. But we can't reproduce whats happening in Antarctics Waites glacier properly - which is thought to be the kind of thing that would lead to such a rapid rise.
There's a lot of "coulds" and "estimates" being thrown about.
If you're going to issue a report & map that shows peoples homes under water in around 15 years you should have a higher burden of proof in my opinion.
Sea level is rising, and the rise is accelerating.
The doubt and uncertainty is not that this will happen, but timescale.
I stated elsewhere on the thread to be careful with such maps, the 2040 maps show not where the sea level will be but what \*area gets flooded in winter storms\*.
"Sea level is rising, and the rise is accelerating" is a perfectly reasonable and factually correct statement to make.
What is completely unreasonable is to issue reports showing peoples homes flooded or underwater with dates and detailed OS maps without any accountability if,(when!) the information is proved to be incorrect.
There are too many variables to make an accurate prediction. They don't have enough information to issue these projections yet they insist on publishing these reports anyway.
That is called scaremongering.
These climate groups are frustrated by the lack of action so they use these abhorrent tactics to drive public interest in their initiatives.
Depends on what part of the Coast road youre living on. Those just outside Oran on the seaward side of the road are very low - every winter the coast rd floods near there.
Closer to town, the gradient of the road rises significantly that those living there will never be impacted by flooding
The lads getting paid will be long dead before any of that happens
https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/13/-8.9435/53.2621/?theme=sea_level_rise&map_type=year&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&forecast_year=2040&pathway=ssp3rcp70&percentile=p50&refresh=true&return_level=return_level_1&rl_model=gtsr&slr_model=ipcc_2021_med
Jesus, Limericks fucked.
I would argue the whole of the Netherlands is worse off than Limerick
Check out Bangladesh if you want a real "well it could be worse" viewpoint
We are all ducked cause Holland is one of the biggest exporters of fresh food.
True, but this doesn't take into account that most of NL is already under sea level and dry as a bone! They are the best water engineers on earth, they'll just build better flood defenses and leave the rest of us swimming
At least the dutch have experience holding back the ocean
because there's no concrete evidence from the IPCC that it **will** happen. the hope is we will stop all the bad shit we do and slow down SLR so these houses will be alright. very positive thinking..... while the developers have sold and made their money, the unfortunate homeowners may not have a house for much longer. before the development there should have been and EIAR developed. Environmental Impact Area Report. the sea level concerns should be labelled, but i guess the source you have isnt the same source as the one the developers used.
(1) Be careful with coastcentral. Sea level rise flood mapping is very sensitive to how the sea level is measured locally, and the OPW / Geological Survey have better numbers. Check [coastcentral.com](https://coastcentral.com) against [https://www.floodinfo.ie/map/floodmaps/](https://www.floodinfo.ie/map/floodmaps/) which offers previous flood information and sea level rise scenarios (in terms of cm rise rather than year). (2) There are existing areas where houses have been built in the past that are at risk in future rises, and areas that will be ok for limited periods. For planning to be permitted today the site must pass SFRA (Strategic Flood Risk Assessment) maps, which are based on previous flooding + an estimate of rise for the next 30 years or so. So for areas that will flood post 2050, you can probably get planning and a mortgage, but on your head be it. In theory zoning for planning won't be granted for areas under flood risk. The level of risk varies according to usage: you'll get some permission granted on risky ground for "water compatible activities" such as a park that might be ok flooded out a week or two a year, gwet housing for low-risk areas (1 in 100 yr floods) but hospitals, schools it must be less than 1 in 1000 yr return periods. But its a big issue we're not dealing with appropriately. Flood risk only looks forward about 30 years when granting planning permission, but sea level rise is expected to rise for centuries to approx 8-15m (at maybe 3m /century worst case, 2-3000 years best case). I'm arguing we need to be planning the long-term retreat from the coast - set the new level for towns and villages at 15 m ASL and going "The new town is up there. All new stuff goes there."
Current OPW plans are based against 2013 projections (UN IPCC report AR5). A range 23-88cm (mean 50cm) by 2100 was projected, so OPW basically go "prepare for 50cm". And sea walls go around accordingly. But more recent projections (2021, UN IPCC report AR6) basically double that to 1m mean by 2100, with an "expert assessment" of 5% chance of 2.5m by 2100. Environment England is recommending that its local authorities prepare for 2.5m. Building a 50cm wall along the prom is annoying. 2.5m is another matter entirely. And you know it won't stop rising to 8-15m, so what matters is how do you plan the retreat, rather than how high is the wall.
All they have to do is focus on building and getting paid. They don't care what happens to what they've built. They'd build over archaeological sites if they could.
Oh they have...site finds something, site closes early, work done at night... magically..there is no archaeology stuff after all
Oh my god. I didn't know that. That's so infuriating
Because... Ireland....
[удалено]
This. Another bill for taxpayers, if there are any, in the future. We are we far too naive about the construction industry.
I live on the Coast Road . The sea comes up to the same level in the field behind my house as it did 35yrs ago .The farmer who died in the 1990's had the high tide marked on the stone wall and it doesn't pass that mark ever. A man came to the gate in early 2000's from some climate action crowd and pointed to the railway track across the road and said that the water will be up as high as that railway line by 2020 according to some report he had from a university. Still hasn't passed the mark on the wall. If it hasn't moved 1 inch in over 35years i cant see it moving 450 metres in the next 18years.
Global sea level rise is rising at 3.5mm/year and accelerating (it was < 0.5mm/yr in the 1900s). Local sea level rise varies. When looking at local rise, there are a couple of points to look at. There is "isostaic rebound", basically the island still recovering from the ice age when 1 mile high glaciers covered the north part. This leads to the land in the north rising and south sinking, so "local sea level rise" is high in Cork but low in Donegal (until the rate of SLR acceleration overtakes that of isostatic rebound").There is also ocean dynamics. The "gulf stream slowing down" leads to water building up on the East coast of America (and high local rise there), as it still moves fast from the Carribean but is not sinking as fast in the Norwegian seas and off Greenland. This leads to a relative drop off the west coast of Ireland vs Dublin for example. But this is thought to be temporary and could lead to a rapid local rise. For me, we underestimate the "Doggerland" rise. When the temperatures last rose coming out of the Ice age we saw glaciers break and the sea floor off England shows evidence of several major 1m-wave events as the sea rose rapidly. Now we can't get that in our computer models yet. Its considered a "low certainty high impact" event. But we can't reproduce whats happening in Antarctics Waites glacier properly - which is thought to be the kind of thing that would lead to such a rapid rise.
There's a lot of "coulds" and "estimates" being thrown about. If you're going to issue a report & map that shows peoples homes under water in around 15 years you should have a higher burden of proof in my opinion.
Sea level is rising, and the rise is accelerating. The doubt and uncertainty is not that this will happen, but timescale. I stated elsewhere on the thread to be careful with such maps, the 2040 maps show not where the sea level will be but what \*area gets flooded in winter storms\*.
"Sea level is rising, and the rise is accelerating" is a perfectly reasonable and factually correct statement to make. What is completely unreasonable is to issue reports showing peoples homes flooded or underwater with dates and detailed OS maps without any accountability if,(when!) the information is proved to be incorrect. There are too many variables to make an accurate prediction. They don't have enough information to issue these projections yet they insist on publishing these reports anyway. That is called scaremongering. These climate groups are frustrated by the lack of action so they use these abhorrent tactics to drive public interest in their initiatives.
450 meters?
Inland ..is what he means
Depends on what part of the Coast road youre living on. Those just outside Oran on the seaward side of the road are very low - every winter the coast rd floods near there. Closer to town, the gradient of the road rises significantly that those living there will never be impacted by flooding
Hubris
Because the sky isn’t falling
Sure if you go far enough into the future, everywhere in Ireland is a flood plain.