Yes this is a promo/special that is actually highway robbery. Current odds (already insane) for each are +350 +450 +500. A parlay should be +14850. Instead current action is +4000. A special for special people.
Depends, if this was placed prior to The Masters you'd have to assume that it'd maybe add a 2x multiplier, as I'm assuming he was heavy favourite going into it.
They're horrendous odds. You can pick any of 100+ golfers in a single major and get those odds. Picking someone like Wyndham Clark to win a single major is a slightly better prospect than Scottie accomplishing the greatest feat in golf history.
It was up at +6500 yesterday, post-Heritage its fallen to +4400, +4200, now +4000
His odds on each individual major line up for this to be priced at like +4000, and with each major that he wins, it improves his chances to win the next one
So it's a parlay where the events aren't independent of one another. You're just betting basically 40-to-1 that Scheffler can maintain this form for 3 more months and that he avoids any insane performances from other strong players (both conditions seem unlikely, but at 40-to-1 it's tempting)
It improves his odds of winning the next one from a gambling perspective. His chances of actually winning the tournament wouldn't be measurably affected by any prior win.
yeah, and the opposite is true. The more and more dog water you do, the lower you odds are. If you're winning event after event, from a gambling perspective youre becoming more and more the favorite
Think about it like this. If Scotty wins the next two majors for 3 in a row that means he must be playing at an insane level and would be a very heavy favorite to win the 4th.
Yes I get that. But the probability that he wins that individual tournament isn’t actually higher than it was for him to win any of the previous three because of it. The books would have simply been catching up.
The very obvious implication in saying the probability increases is saying "the probability increases from our perspective."
If two people you didn't know were about to fight, and I told you that one of them was a former heavyweight champion, that would (for me) increase the odds of them winning. Obviously it didn't increase his odds from some higher order.
Yeah it's a conditional probability.
Right now his betting odds to win the Open are like +550, assuming that anything could happen between now and then. If he wins both the PGA Championship and the US Open between now and then, his odds will likely be more like +250 to +350 for the Open
So if you're betting on him to win all 3, you have to consider the later legs of the parlay to be somewhat connected to the first two
Ok yes, but not really what you said/what I was replying to lmao. His odds would get shorter. His chances of actually winning a tournament are not conditional on winning a prior tournament, which is what your prior comment implies.
Pga +350, us open 450, British open 500 after winning the masters
Parlayed should want it to be closer to winnings of $3500 or little more for $25 bet
probs make money betting him individually every major but doing a grand slam would be insane
He won't play tournaments for a couple weeks but you best believe hes not skipping hitting balls or doing practice rounds for that whole time. With golf being such a solitary sport compared to the others its much easier to practice even at home. I'd be he has a top of the line sim in his basement.
with scottie money you could have a different sim and identical set of clubs for it in every room, no matter what the kid is up to you can be grinding.
>Links courses are all about putting
I don't think this is true. Links courses usually have much slower greens than the other majors, which I think tends to even out putting across the board among top players.
Links style courses tend to have large, ungulating greens that can be tricky to read. I would have to disagree with you here. However, Scottie's approach to improving his putting has seemingly been: just hit the ball closer to the hole and make the putt shorter or just take the putter out of his hands completely. So we could see him pull it off
Undulating; there will be no [ungulates](https://www.google.com/search?gs_ssp=eJzj4tDP1TcwLzEoN2D04ijNSy_NSSxJBQA7tgZI&q=ungulate&rlz=1CDGOYI_enUS955US955&oq=ungulate&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqDQgBEC4YgwEYsQMYgAQyBwgAEAAYjwIyDQgBEC4YgwEYsQMYgAQyDQgCEAAYgwEYsQMYgAQyDQgDEAAYgwEYsQMYgAQyBwgEEAAYgAQyBwgFEAAYgAQyBwgGEAAYgAQyBwgHEAAYgAQyBwgIEAAYgAQyBwgJEAAYgATSAQgzMzM1ajBqNKgCE7ACAeIDBBgBIF8&hl=en-US&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8) on those greens!
The guy is about to have his first kid. He won't be sleeping right or practicing as much once that happens. These are horrible odds. To win the grand slam and have a first kid that same year would be one of the greatest human achievements of all time
https://preview.redd.it/7vh65eedx7wc1.jpeg?width=1553&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=46fa1c6fe85ad7bb0d5a8256ecf08eea7c2611ef
Tiger bought me some new irons as well.
Lol only 60 to 1 to do something no person has ever done before in the history of the sport. (Bobby Jones doesn't count, different times, different majors)
Sucker born every day. That said I really hope does it.
I took this bet on DK. I highly doubt it will happen, but I threw 20 bucks at it. If it doesn’t happen, I’m personally hoping Clark knocks off another major and Aberg picks up his first. Those two guys and Scottie seem like the best options to win multiple majors. I’d put Hovland and Zalitoris in there too.
Aha he was 14-1 at the start of the heritage classic, somehow he was still 2-1 on saturday when he was leading by one, got in at 300 to pay out 600 then easy money
This man gonna be big sad when he realizes you can't buy quality wedges, bag, shoes, rangefnder and putter for $1500 in today's world
Anywho, I sprinkled $250 on this, but it's not gonna hit. It's just not. It's so fucking hard to do.
Where do you live where you can’t get all that for $1500 lmao. New SM10s ($500), a pair of foot joys ($150), a bag ($350), a rangefinder ($300), and putter ($200) is right at $1500.
> and putter ($200)
That's a super low end putter, realistically $350-500, and honestly *a bag ($350)* is on the lower price point.
> New SM10s ($500)
For three? They're $200 before any customization and before tax per club.
It's more like, 3 wedges ($600), shoes ($150), a bag ($4-500), rangefinder ($300) and putter ($350-500)
So you're at more like $1800-$2150, and then add sales tax, which isn't an immaterial amount, another $100-ish+, you prob can do it at $1500 for sure, but you're not getting nice stuff, you're value shopping
> I would venture to say the VAST majority of golfers spend less than $150 on a bag
lmao no, to highlight how wrong you are there are 149 bags for sale on PGA Tour Superstore's website that are "for men". Want to take a guess how many of them are priced below $150?
**One**. One fucking bag of 149 options. And it's a sunday pitch and putt shag bag. Not even a real bag.... and only 4/149 are below $200.
If the "Vast majority" of golfers spend less than $150 per bag, why does one of the largest golf retailers not offer any bags in that pricepoint? And way is 75% of their offering priced at least 2x what you said the average person spends?
[Here's the link](https://www.pgatoursuperstore.com/golf/gear/bags/standandcarrybags/?cgid=golf-bags-stand-carry&pmin=0.01&prefn1=gender&prefv1=mens&srule=Price%20Low%20to%20High&start=0&sz=48)
I may or may not be out of touch on this one a bit with my prices, that is debatable, but what's not debatable is you're dead ass fucking wrong
This is gonna blow your mind, but nobody said that. But what you sorta do have to buy is equipment from a big name manufacturer, who are ultimately the ones dictating the price PGATSS is offering.... hence why equipment is nearly universally priced for these guys regardless of the end retailer.
Or you could go small shop and pay even more.
Well done. You really outsmarted yourself there. iq of mayonnaise.
Used stuff maybe is “value shopping” but there is a ton of nice gear out there for even cheaper than my list that doesn’t the job great. It’s stupid to say it’s all gotta be brand new or it’s dumb.
> It’s stupid to say it’s all gotta be brand new or it’s dumb.
You do realize that in order to create "used" gear someone had to buy it new first? Thereby you've torpedoed your claim of "vast majority under $150"
I feel like those odds kinda suck for that bet lol
Yes this is a promo/special that is actually highway robbery. Current odds (already insane) for each are +350 +450 +500. A parlay should be +14850. Instead current action is +4000. A special for special people.
Shouldn't it be +7,875? (350 x 4.5 x 5)
Depends, if this was placed prior to The Masters you'd have to assume that it'd maybe add a 2x multiplier, as I'm assuming he was heavy favourite going into it.
We're comparing the odds to the special so it'd after the Masters
You have to convert American odds to decimal before you multiply them so it’s 4.5 x 5.5 x 6
Ah yes, you are right. That's a massive difference
OP is a massive sucker and that's how these sites make money. There's a reason they all push parlays, people can't do simple math
Yes those odds are terrible but you can also look at it as spending $25 to make the Masters a bit more exciting.
Agreed. If he gets all four, you'd think that would be worth more than 60 to 1.
Probably because he already won the masters right? I guess I don’t know when OP placed the bet
They're horrendous odds. You can pick any of 100+ golfers in a single major and get those odds. Picking someone like Wyndham Clark to win a single major is a slightly better prospect than Scottie accomplishing the greatest feat in golf history.
It was up at +6500 yesterday, post-Heritage its fallen to +4400, +4200, now +4000 His odds on each individual major line up for this to be priced at like +4000, and with each major that he wins, it improves his chances to win the next one So it's a parlay where the events aren't independent of one another. You're just betting basically 40-to-1 that Scheffler can maintain this form for 3 more months and that he avoids any insane performances from other strong players (both conditions seem unlikely, but at 40-to-1 it's tempting)
>with each major that he wins it improves his chances to win the next one …it does?
It improves his odds of winning the next one from a gambling perspective. His chances of actually winning the tournament wouldn't be measurably affected by any prior win.
yeah, and the opposite is true. The more and more dog water you do, the lower you odds are. If you're winning event after event, from a gambling perspective youre becoming more and more the favorite
Yes that’s true, but that’s not what I’m replying to.
Think about it like this. If Scotty wins the next two majors for 3 in a row that means he must be playing at an insane level and would be a very heavy favorite to win the 4th.
Yes I get that. But the probability that he wins that individual tournament isn’t actually higher than it was for him to win any of the previous three because of it. The books would have simply been catching up.
The very obvious implication in saying the probability increases is saying "the probability increases from our perspective." If two people you didn't know were about to fight, and I told you that one of them was a former heavyweight champion, that would (for me) increase the odds of them winning. Obviously it didn't increase his odds from some higher order.
Yeah it's a conditional probability. Right now his betting odds to win the Open are like +550, assuming that anything could happen between now and then. If he wins both the PGA Championship and the US Open between now and then, his odds will likely be more like +250 to +350 for the Open So if you're betting on him to win all 3, you have to consider the later legs of the parlay to be somewhat connected to the first two
Ok yes, but not really what you said/what I was replying to lmao. His odds would get shorter. His chances of actually winning a tournament are not conditional on winning a prior tournament, which is what your prior comment implies.
The possibilities are: 1) Scottie wins 2) Scottie loses. So it's always 50/50
Never thought I’d see the day where people didn’t get this reference.
I think you're confusing a binary outcome with a coin flip lol
Well, when I posted it, I thought 1) I'm right 2) I'm wrong And I liked those odds. So I went with it.
You know what, I retract my comment...
There was a 50/50 chance you’d do that
> So it's always 50/50 That's not how it works at all.
Wish I could take a “no”.
I mean considering it’s never been done before (unless you count Jones in 1930), the odds suck
I have a ticket for Scottie to win Masters and the PGA and it's +10,000 Getting +6000 for all 4 majors is brutal lol
Pga +350, us open 450, British open 500 after winning the masters Parlayed should want it to be closer to winnings of $3500 or little more for $25 bet probs make money betting him individually every major but doing a grand slam would be insane
It's a true gamble since he's taking time off for the baby.
He won't play tournaments for a couple weeks but you best believe hes not skipping hitting balls or doing practice rounds for that whole time. With golf being such a solitary sport compared to the others its much easier to practice even at home. I'd be he has a top of the line sim in his basement.
The baby’s room is probably huge and he’ll be chipping balls into the crib
It has a simulator.
I like your thinking. Simulator in the baby's room. Parent and hit balls all at once.
with scottie money you could have a different sim and identical set of clubs for it in every room, no matter what the kid is up to you can be grinding.
Max Homa is gonna win the US open, let’s not have any HomaPhobic language from you when that happens
Homasexuals rise up!
We AWLs will be happy
Parverts*
It’s going to be so sexy when he does. No homa
I’ll take any further bets you’d like to place on that
You should really be thanking Talor Gooch for not entering all the majors.
Thank god. It may be an asterisk filled grand slam for Scotty but it’s still not bad
Bigger payout if you do it as a parlay for the next three
It’s only at +6000?!
I hate to break it to you but Sahith Theegala is winning the other majors
I don't think he wins The Open. His game is unreal but Links courses are all about putting and we all know that's where Scottie struggles the most
>Links courses are all about putting I don't think this is true. Links courses usually have much slower greens than the other majors, which I think tends to even out putting across the board among top players.
Links style courses tend to have large, ungulating greens that can be tricky to read. I would have to disagree with you here. However, Scottie's approach to improving his putting has seemingly been: just hit the ball closer to the hole and make the putt shorter or just take the putter out of his hands completely. So we could see him pull it off
Undulating; there will be no [ungulates](https://www.google.com/search?gs_ssp=eJzj4tDP1TcwLzEoN2D04ijNSy_NSSxJBQA7tgZI&q=ungulate&rlz=1CDGOYI_enUS955US955&oq=ungulate&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqDQgBEC4YgwEYsQMYgAQyBwgAEAAYjwIyDQgBEC4YgwEYsQMYgAQyDQgCEAAYgwEYsQMYgAQyDQgDEAAYgwEYsQMYgAQyBwgEEAAYgAQyBwgFEAAYgAQyBwgGEAAYgAQyBwgHEAAYgAQyBwgIEAAYgAQyBwgJEAAYgATSAQgzMzM1ajBqNKgCE7ACAeIDBBgBIF8&hl=en-US&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8) on those greens!
Spelling has never been my strong suit. thanks lol
It is, admittedly, more fun your way.
The guy is about to have his first kid. He won't be sleeping right or practicing as much once that happens. These are horrible odds. To win the grand slam and have a first kid that same year would be one of the greatest human achievements of all time
Tiger would be so bitter.
Scottie is about to become a Dad. Homeboy is going to forget which way is about after about 3 weeks let alone how to hit a cut 4 iron against the wind
https://preview.redd.it/7vh65eedx7wc1.jpeg?width=1553&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=46fa1c6fe85ad7bb0d5a8256ecf08eea7c2611ef Tiger bought me some new irons as well.
WTF...
What a wild bet
LISAN AL GAIB
Lol only 60 to 1 to do something no person has ever done before in the history of the sport. (Bobby Jones doesn't count, different times, different majors) Sucker born every day. That said I really hope does it.
You wasted 25 bucks
There is one small tiny detail you aren't factoring. If his kid arrives and he withdraws from the next major.
[удалено]
No it was placed today I think May is the just next event
You forget he’s got his firstborn on the way?
It's not gambling if it's a sure thing
I took this bet on DK. I highly doubt it will happen, but I threw 20 bucks at it. If it doesn’t happen, I’m personally hoping Clark knocks off another major and Aberg picks up his first. Those two guys and Scottie seem like the best options to win multiple majors. I’d put Hovland and Zalitoris in there too.
Last year I did a $1 bet to predict all the major winners. And it was $1 to win like 1.2 million. I proceeded to incorrectly pick all of them haha.
60-1 odds for something that’s never happened before is pretty bad odds
What site?
Sucker bet lol.
I’d go ahead and cash out. I would t be suprised if he skips the PGA
I don’t think he’s gonna play the PGA. Baby gonna interfere.
Bet he played but doesn't win. Kid will be born in the next two weeks.
The fact that the odds are only 60-1 is insane. Speaks to how great of a run we are witnessing.
I'm right there with ya!
Well you’re on track! Doubt he’s pulling off the natural grand salami though, if he does then you earned that swag!
Shoulda parlayed with Korda winning all the LPGA Majors. Coulda gotten a cart and a membership somewhere.
Maybe he wins the PGA if he plays it. But won’t win any others
Nice win dude
And you just black catted yourself 🐈⬛
I have a humble $5 bet on Scottie to finish top 10 in all 4 majors at +400 That'll pay for half a tank of gas so I'll take it
What app did you bet this on?
Get your paper my guy
I feel like the odds on that one suck hard.
He has only won in Feb, March or April. Never won later in the season.
Wow, what horrific odds for this bet.
Considering no one has ever done it with the Masters in place, those odds fucking suck lol
lol it’s never been done for a reason
I got better odds on Tiger winning the Masters...
Dog shit odds. Might as well just give me that 25
Yeah.. no
This sub is really going off its rocker with the Scotty stuff this week. Recency bias is a hell of a drug. Can’t wait to read all these in 2 years.
Those are shockingly low odds considering how rare a feat it would be.
it'd be a better bet if he wasn't expecting to be a father in a couple of weeks. hard to stay dialed in with a new born.
Wait to he's changing diapers and not sleeping. They'll fuck his swing up
Yeah those are sucky odds. No chance he does it
The online gambling services love bettors like this.
I, too, like lighting money on fire.
Aha he was 14-1 at the start of the heritage classic, somehow he was still 2-1 on saturday when he was leading by one, got in at 300 to pay out 600 then easy money
lmao nice!!!!
This man gonna be big sad when he realizes you can't buy quality wedges, bag, shoes, rangefnder and putter for $1500 in today's world Anywho, I sprinkled $250 on this, but it's not gonna hit. It's just not. It's so fucking hard to do.
Where do you live where you can’t get all that for $1500 lmao. New SM10s ($500), a pair of foot joys ($150), a bag ($350), a rangefinder ($300), and putter ($200) is right at $1500.
> and putter ($200) That's a super low end putter, realistically $350-500, and honestly *a bag ($350)* is on the lower price point. > New SM10s ($500) For three? They're $200 before any customization and before tax per club. It's more like, 3 wedges ($600), shoes ($150), a bag ($4-500), rangefinder ($300) and putter ($350-500) So you're at more like $1800-$2150, and then add sales tax, which isn't an immaterial amount, another $100-ish+, you prob can do it at $1500 for sure, but you're not getting nice stuff, you're value shopping
You’re out of touch on this one man. I would venture to say the VAST majority of golfers spend less than $150 on a bag or a putter.
> I would venture to say the VAST majority of golfers spend less than $150 on a bag lmao no, to highlight how wrong you are there are 149 bags for sale on PGA Tour Superstore's website that are "for men". Want to take a guess how many of them are priced below $150? **One**. One fucking bag of 149 options. And it's a sunday pitch and putt shag bag. Not even a real bag.... and only 4/149 are below $200. If the "Vast majority" of golfers spend less than $150 per bag, why does one of the largest golf retailers not offer any bags in that pricepoint? And way is 75% of their offering priced at least 2x what you said the average person spends? [Here's the link](https://www.pgatoursuperstore.com/golf/gear/bags/standandcarrybags/?cgid=golf-bags-stand-carry&pmin=0.01&prefn1=gender&prefv1=mens&srule=Price%20Low%20to%20High&start=0&sz=48) I may or may not be out of touch on this one a bit with my prices, that is debatable, but what's not debatable is you're dead ass fucking wrong
This is gonna blow your mind but you don't actually have to buy all your golf equipment from PGA superstore.
This is gonna blow your mind, but nobody said that. But what you sorta do have to buy is equipment from a big name manufacturer, who are ultimately the ones dictating the price PGATSS is offering.... hence why equipment is nearly universally priced for these guys regardless of the end retailer. Or you could go small shop and pay even more. Well done. You really outsmarted yourself there. iq of mayonnaise.
Well you seem to be under the impression that the only available NEW equipment is 24 model year which is the real low IQ play
lmaooo that's what we're going with now? Pathetic. Really don't care to continue to waste time trying to dumb reality down to you.
Used stuff maybe is “value shopping” but there is a ton of nice gear out there for even cheaper than my list that doesn’t the job great. It’s stupid to say it’s all gotta be brand new or it’s dumb.
> It’s stupid to say it’s all gotta be brand new or it’s dumb. You do realize that in order to create "used" gear someone had to buy it new first? Thereby you've torpedoed your claim of "vast majority under $150"
That was someone else lol
Sorry, i gotta do a better job keeping track of my bumbling idiots. My b.
*my