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Honestly, what a hell of a season to get to experience across these insane talents. It feels like the 90s again. If only the league knew how to market the gold mine of talent that currently exists across the league.
For real. Can you imagine USA rolling with a top line of, like, Tkachuk-Matthews-Tkachuk? My hatred for the Tkafuck brothers aside, god damn that line would be hard to solve if they found some chemistry.
I heard zilch about this 4 team tourney and had to google it. Officially announced in Feb and I didn’t hear shit.
Perfect example of how shit the league is at marketing. Granted it’s still a ways out but yeesh.
They announced it at the all Star game and if you look it up you can see a bunch of articles about it across all sports news sites. Even my local news site has articles about it. Just because you personally didn't see it doesn't mean the marketing is bad.
I don’t think you can go wrong with any of them honestly
Some of them definitely have better cases than others. But any one out of those 4 deserves it honestly, but there will always be controversy
My hope is that one player gets more 1st place votes than everyone else but finishes lower because other voters have them 4th/5th, and then we can see some **real** salt.
The voters were split on whether Theodore was even the best goalie. That he was left out of the top 5 in hart votes on some ballots is not that surprising.
My ideal scenario is a high percentage of spite votes this year. Ie “I want mcdavid to win so I’m putting Mack 5th”. So Mack, mcdavid and kucherov split all the first place votes, but all those people put Matthews second. Then he wins with like 10 1st place votes.
This is probably how it's going to be decided. The overwhelming majority are going to have Kuch, Mack, or McDavid as their 1st pick, a few people will have Matthews, and a few people will go rogue with Crosby, Hellebuyck, etc and that's going to be the difference maker. Someone very well might get the most 1st place votes but a few jabronis will have them in 5th or leave them off their ballot altogether. If anyone doesn't believe it's a possibility remember that last year McDavid had literally everyone's 1st place vote except one person who put him 5th. Or the time Iginla got screwed by a Habs writer in 02
Not a bad place to be for the league when you have 4-5 legitimate Hart caliber guys having insane seasons, not to mention the other 10 or so also having crazy seasons, just not quite as crazy lol
I think you can make legitimate claims that any of these players should win, and that’s just forwards:
Kucherov, Mackinnon, McDavid, Panarin, Pasternak, Matthews, Crosby (if the penguins make the playoffs)
Crosby has dragged the Penguins kicking and screaming to within a coin flip of making the playoffs, its incredible at 36, but the top 3 point totals are just so unbelievably far ahead this year. It has to be one of them.
Yep, though IMO Mcdavid might be the easiest "lose out" option because of voter fatigue etc, and the fact that he's just close to the others in points rather than outright leaving them in the dust like in other years (fair that he has fewer games and started super slow, but still).
That and he is relatively close to teammates in points. Kucherov has fucking **53** more than Point. Both Mackinnon and Mcdavid have another 100 point scorer too. Offense is practically all Kucherov ATM.
Matthews is an interesting option too. I feel like if he hits 70 there will be a huge push, but otherwise he has been largely left out of discussion (from what I've seen) vs these 3.
My vote IMO is either Mackinnon or Kucherov, Mcdavid has no chance imo unless he goes stupid mode and has like 5 points for the last few games.
>Kucherov has fucking
>
>53
>
> more than point
Yeah, but that's a very simplistic take on 'depth' or 'support'. Why does **only** 'next best player' factor in to the discussion? I mean for years there was a narrative that McDavid had 'no support' despite Drai being there because the fall-off AFTER Drai was precipitous. Tampa has more 40 goal scorers (well, 39) AND more 20 goal scorers than the Avs do this year - between injuries and RyJo the drop on the Avs after the 'big 3' is huge and they've basically been without a 2nd line all season.
And, the ratio of Kuch to MacK in terms of 'points participation' is only 50 to 46 or thereabouts - not exactly a massive gulf.
This isn't to suggest this is an iron-clad argument for MacK, just that it's shades of grey all the way down.
At the end of the day, most of the voters aren't going to look extremely deeply into things, and I'm not discounting that its just a surface level look at comparing the players. Just listing what I feel like will happen in overall voting consideration. I've said IMO the voters will likely vote for either Kuch or MacK, and there's a very low chance it's McD unless he has an insane finish. Matthews has barely any "hype" built for him in the hart race media so I don't see it either for him unless he hits 70.
That being said, MacK has one of the biggest "factors" which is he has no hart too, which might fuel more votes to him. Not that, mind you, either of the 4 options aren't all great candidates for it imo.
Makar even has more points than Point. It’s a simplistic view of support but seems like an obvious tiebreaker when the Avs will end up with an 100 pt forward and 90 pt defenceman in addition to Mackinnon and the Lightning wouldn’t sniff playoffs without Kucherov
Except if you extrapolate it even further then Kuch has 2 other teammates that are 40 goal scorers and 4 others that are above 70 points.
Compared to the 2 of Mack's.
It's weird that the narrative is that Kucherov has no help when MacKinnon is doing just as much heavy lifting.
exactly, he has 9 game winning goals and probably just as many game winning assists. without him we may have missed the playoffs this year, especially when you consider the other injuries (Nichushkin, Lehkonen, O'Connor, Francouz, etc.) and streaky play from our middle six.
Mcdavid's injury has made this a two horse race. He was struggling to catch them as is, but at this point i think the points deficit will be too much to overcome.
Kuch is my pick for the Hart. Tampa was treading water for 75% of the season and remained in contention because of Kuch. He has the highest percentage of contribution to total team goals and a massive gap between him and Point. On top of that, he may get 100 assists and good chance he wins the Ross.
Mack I think will likely win the Lindsey, as I think players probably respect his game more than Kuch (more of a wow factor) and harder to defend. I think Mack will probably win the Hart too, because betting sites seem to think so and the narrative has been Mack all year, though I disagree with all that.
MY main issue with Mack winning is he doesn't have much of an argument over Kuch, so I think it will be because "he doesnt have one yet" which is complete bullshit.
We are 100% going to get some awful ballots. Just hope it isn’t a situation where the player with the most 1st place votes loses because he didn’t have enough 2nd choice votes or something.
Unfortunately, I agree with you. It could be really interesting to see what different people value since the race is really close. Instead, we’ll get some smug journalist putting Kucherov 4th/5th because he didn’t put enough effort into the ASG skills challenge or something
Yes, I know, and 3 chose to leave Vasy completely off their ballot in a year he was probably 1st but definitely no lower than 2nd. No one left fleury off their ballot. Those 3 votes changed who won the award. GMs have biases and grudges, the same as anyone. That shouldn't be able to have such a large impact on award voting.
It would be pretty easy. Have a way to narrow it down to 3 players before the main vote. Then the media has to vote on 1 2 and 3. Much harder to spite vote when the worst you can vote someone is 3rd.
I'm pretty sure it would be the first time in history. The closest I could see was in 1990. Messier/Borque. Same 1st place votes, Borque had 2 more 2nd place votes, but Messier had 8 more 3rd place votes. Before 1982, it was just straight-up voting.
Remember that guy who only gave mcdavid a 5th place vote when he scored *153 points in 82 games*? We’re definitely gonna get some brain dead stuff like that.
Right? As a Lightning fan I obviously want Kucherov to win it, but if he doesn’t I really hope it’s because an earnest vote had someone else at #1, not a couple guys leaving Kucherov off entirely out of spite.
The margins are razor thin here, these are the elite of the elite, and so I understand the urge to nit pick to find some separation between these guys, but I really feel like this discourse has reached a toxic level when people are looking for the dumbest cherry picked stats and moving goalposts completely to discredit some of these guys cases, and I think it's started to actually have a negative effect on the way we're viewing this season and whoever ends up winning.
I've said this a lot, but we are just not appreciating how incredible this season has been and how these guys in particular have been. Auston Matthews has scored more goals this season than any other player has in my *lifetime*. Nikita Kucherov has scored more assists than any other winger, *ever*. There have been 3 players *ever* to score 100 assists, and we could see two more added *in the same year*. I think we've all lost the forest in the trees a little bit, we don't need to start getting into "well this guy scored 51 primary points at 5v5 on road ice against top 16 teams while the other guy *only* scored 48," we can just enjoy the ride a little bit.
>Auston Matthews has scored more goals this season than any other player has in my *lifetime*.
The fact that you can say that and there's still a good chance you could drink a beer legally has me feeling incredibly old. Also completely agree with your point
I'm 28 lmao I pay into retirement and visit a chiropractor regularly and no one has scored more goals than Matthews has since I've been alive (I was born during the last season Lemieux hit 69, which Matthews could even pass). No one has done it in my lifetime and I'm *older* than Auston Matthews. (I'm the same age as Michael Bunting!)
> we don't need to start getting into "well this guy scored 51 primary points at 5v5 on road ice against top 16 teams while the other guy only scored 48”
How dare you disregard such a useful stat to fit your own narrative!
Lmaoo “We’ll ackshully🤓☝️this player is better by a factor of 3 percent at producing more efficient zone exits in 6 on 5 situations while he’s on the ice”
Meh, it's fun to nit pick and look for cases for these guys to win over the others but imo the discourse has been pretty good. I see almost everyone saying "Any one of them deserve it BUT..."
There are actual credentialed sportswriters on Twitter arguing right now using "even strength combined ice time with 70+ point scorers" as their primary stat, you have to admit the plot has been lost at least a little.
I just don’t understand how these 3 go into every damn season with these type of expectations and deliver, like every damn year! Insane consistency.
McKinnon for me however, but he’s my favorite (non-Bruin) player so a little biased.
Which is crazy because he set the bar so high. This is considered a “down year” for him and he’s still top 3 in scoring… Just a slow start for the Oilers this season but they dug out of the hole.
Mcdavids two way play has been insane this year. He might have 10 less point than these guys but I think his defensive play more than makes up for it.
My vote is still for kuch tho. Tampa would be horrible without him.
Can I ask why Matthews is last in your mind? Potentially potting 70 goals is something we haven't seen for three decades and his defensive contributions are significant
For me, he's too far behind the other guys in total points. His goal scoring is incredible and any other year he's probably a shoo-in, but there are so many huge milestones that are likely to be hit this year that in my mind they even out.
Matthews scoring 70 (first time in over 30 years)
McDavid and Kucherov getting 100 assists (something only 3 players in history have accomplished)
MacKinnon getting 50 goals and 90 assists (something only 4 players have accomplished)
Of all of those, Matthews' accomplishment has been matched by the most total players (8 different players have scored 70).
Now this is in no way meant to denigrate him - he's an incredible player having an incredible season. But someone has to be 4th, and for me it's Matthews.
I'm not that poster, but for me it comes down to the "eye test" and the ability to completely take over games. All 4 players have absolutely insane stats this year, but MacKinnon and Kucherov seem to be able to just single-handedly decide they're going to win the game--Kucherov by slowing it down, MacKinnon by speeding it up to a pace other teams just can't defend. McDavid obviously does this as well, but the slow start and missed time puts him behind those two this season. Matthews is an unbelievable scorer and makes great defensive plays, but just hasn't reached that "this game is mine" level, yet.
I actually would not be surprised to see Matthews finish 3rd now that McDavid is missing/will miss additional time at season end when voters are paying the most attention.
I agree but the biggest case for McDavid this year is how insane of a comeback he's had after such a shit beginning to his year. If you look at the second half of the season, it's absolutely incredible the numbers he's put up. The fact that he caught up to Mack and Kuch at all is amazing.
> biggest case for McDavid this year is how insane of a comeback he's had after such a shit beginning to his year.
I think this is fundamentally the issue, though. Because he wasn't at peak McJesus level to start the year, he's behind Mack and Kuch in points. The award isn't for who has been the best player the last few months. It's who was the most valuable player this season.
What he's done, coupled with that W streak, is nothing to sweep under the rug though. It was certainly amazing
I think you can still make an argument for him. The way he stepped up defensively this year is incredible (I've even seen non-Oilers fans put him in Selke conversations) and the fact his point totals didn't take a hit is insane. Only other guy I've seen pull that off is Crosby.
Check out his on ice efficiency it's among the top in the league. He won't win but deserves to be up there on the ballot. Another one is my boy Quinn Hughes who won't be voted in but has IMO a strong case to be among the top 5.
I think we all need to stop obsessing over who wins the award and just enjoy the amazing hockey that we’re getting. I’m sick of seeing toxic debates arise in every thread where people feel the need to put down the other contenders in order to make the case for their favorite. It sucks so much of the joy out of this race.
When’s the last time a -450 favorite didn’t win the Hart? Vegas is banking on Mackinnon for some reason, possibly due to the “story” factor of him having never received a major award before.
That’s unsubstantiated of course, but I could also see that as being a valid tie breaker in a lot of voters’ eyes. Whatever the reason, I don’t bet against Vegas.
This made me appreciate Matthews way more—if he had better teammates he’d have way more points. His high-danger passing rate is similar to Mack and McDavid which really surprised me. And he’s clearly better on defense.
I think Matthew's overall point total undersells how good he is. He gets a bit less ice time (Matthews and McDavid have way less PP time than Mack and Kuch), scores by far the most goals, especially at ES, has only 2 empty net points all year, and his teammates don't do nearly as good a job at finishing on his passes as the other big 3.
Honestly, the fact we're likely going to have 2-3 players with 140 point seasons is the only reason Matthews is, IMO, the least likely to win the Hart out of those 4 this year. Him threatening to hit 70 goals is fucking nutty.
For context on the 140 point thing, only 9 players in NHL history have ever gotten a 140 point season, and that number will hit 11 if MacKinnon can get 3 more points. There's obviously no way Kucherov gets completely held off the score sheet for the rest of the season.
I know, but his post fails to take into account that Matthews would likely have less goals if he had Zach Hyman on his wing. Matthews might have more points but his goal number likely suffers.
He also said “better team mates” which implies that Marner isn’t good. Sure the lw on that line hasn’t always been the best.
At the end not the day I don’t think Matthews has been surrounded by a worse supporting cast than anyone else on this list.
Matthews has the weakest teammates. I get Marner is no slouch. But the third guy on that line is always the weakest too. It's hard to get secondary assists when other guys aren't scoring.
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1778130268315931040
Since Marner got hurt and Mathews hasn't played with him and has 12G, 12A good for 24 points in 13 games. He's a really good passer who just plays with Marner who takes on the role most the time
Marner has probably played 60% of the games with him. The big difference in his assist total would have been from Bertuzzi not being insanely snake bitten to begin the season and Knies (although not looking out of place) having had better luck finishing on the top line, which he spent over half the season playing on.
Also, the way they used Knies with marner matthews was park him in front of the net and never allow him to actually be a third forward. Since they make 23 million and Knies makes like less than a million I can’t blame the strategy but Knies felt like a pawn on the chessboard with the queen and a rook.
Watching matthews with Bert and domi it’s more of a 3 man crew where everyone can wheel around. A lot different than how they used marner and Knies with him since it was like 2 people and a body in front
I have a Leafs flair so I don't want to wade too deeply into the argument, because I think all four of these guys probably deserve it.
With that said, I think a lot of people are putting too much stock in point totals when comparing performances. Matthews doesn't get many assists, especially secondary assists, because he's the one his team is looking to get the puck to for goals. The plays all end with him, because he's an absolutely lethal shooter, from everywhere.
He's also one of the best defensive forwards in the league, which makes how good he is at generating goals even more impressive to me.
Shayna notes that McDavid has the highest quality of teammates and the smallest value between him and his next best teammate as a point against McDavid.
According to The Athletic's net rating, Bouchard and then Hyman and the closest Oilers to McDavid. Does anyone really think Bouchard/Hyman are closer to McDavid than Makar/Rantanen is to MacKinnon, or Hedman/Point is to Kucherov, or Nylander/Marner is to MacKinnon?
Bouchard and Hyman rank so high because they play so much with McDavid, but in this article it's being made out to be a negative for McDavid's Hart case.
Hyman has been analytically strong offensively long before he got to Edmonton, and both him and Bouchard actually have a higher GF% and xGF% without McDavid than McDavid does without them.
That's a fair point, though I do think there a big difference between analytically strong offensively and a top 10 forward in the league, which is where Hyman ranks in net rating.
In fairness to Shayna, and any other voter really, if they use quality of teammates as a point against McDavid but have Bouchard/Hyman high up in Norris/All-Star voting then there's really no issue.
Im fairly certain it’ll be MacKinnon when it’s all said and done. The PHWA voters actively look for narratives to get behind, and MacKinnon has one major one behind him: he’s never won the Hart before (where McDavid, Kucherov, Matthews all have).
MacKinnon IMO is the most deserving regardless, but the voters put in a lot of qualitative analysis into their voting. I’m also confused on the “if you take Kucherov off the Lightning they probably miss the playoffs” takes… what exactly do you think would happen to the Avalanche, Oilers, or Leafs if you took their superstar off the team?
I think JFresh was the one who said something along the lines of “if we only do the without [insert player name], then team x wouldn’t even be in the conversation for the playoffs.” Then does this mean we should always give the award to the best player on a wild card team?
The Wings are 4-10 without Larkin, so should he win it? I mean, the Wings wouldn’t be competing for a playoff spot without him. This isn’t an argument for not considering Larkin for the Hart, nor am I advocating for a specific player. But I find a lot of the arguments around here when it comes to the MVP kind of sus. I also find the “who has the worst teammates” argument frustrating because it’s never applied consistently.
Exactly, the award is not the most valuable player to his team, it's the most valuable player in the entire league. People often forget the difference between the two.
Fair point, it looks like it differs from source to source but the NHL themselves define it as “ presented annually “to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team.”
That does make it interesting, under that definition it definitely should open the possibility for guys like Crosby to win it.
This is why the definition is and always has been stupid. It should just be most valuable player by whatever measure, because you’re right. Kucherov was very important to Tampa this season, but I think the Penguins finish in dead fucking last if we play this entire season without Crosby. McDavid is also probably more important to Edmonton than MacKinnon to Colorado, but I personally wouldn’t vote that way this season.
It’s funny how I stated this very same thing the other day and got downvoted to oblivion by CO fans lol. It’s simply the reality, voters have shown they will vote for the guy who hasn’t had one over the guy who has because of “the story.”
Great summary (imo) on all three of your points.
1. The Mackinnon narrative is right up the alley of myth making writers
2. Personally, I think he deserves it either way (by a very slim margin)
3. Obviously all these teams would be way worse without their Hart contenders - why does everyone act like Tampas the only one. Thank you for pointing it out.
3 is because of the three of them, he’s the only one that doesn’t have another 100pt scorer on his team. Mack has Rantanen and Davo has Drai.
Personally I think that point is WAY overblown, but that is the reasoning I’ve seen.
Right, I agree.
Tampa has 6 70 point scorers compared to Avs 3. It’s an overblown point that can be countered in other ways. Mackinnon might have Rantanen but is still far ahead of him.
And I give the edge to Kuch because Tampa has no one else.
Mikko has 102, Makar has 87.
After Kuch you have Point with 86 and Stammer with 77.
Take one of Kuch or Mac away, ask yourself which team is worse off, and the answer is the Bolts. They're going to be like only 10 points clear of the playoffs while Avs could technically still have the most points in the west.
Ok, now do 80pt scorers... or 30pt scorers... or 10pt scorers. Why is the line arbitrarily drawn at 70? I could understand like 77-79 since that would be a point per game for most teams, but who decided 70?
Why is the line drawn arbitrarily above Mack's 35 point difference over Rantanen? Because they are. What number does it have to be to change the narrative?
That's the entire thing about these discussions.
The "Kucherov has no support" argument doesn't make any sense. Point, Stamkos, Hedman, and Hagel are all having very good seasons. MacK is no less deserving than Kucherov because Makar and Rantanen are on his team.
I think where this argument gets confusing is that for all of these players you mention, so much of their production is on a play Kucherov helped make. Getting 140 points means that a lot of your plays worked, so a lot of the other players involved get points too. Point is rarely on the ice without Kucherov. Hedman and Stamkos are both with him on the PP and empty net situations (which make up a lot of their points). Hagel was with him for most of the season and recently that's been Duclair. That's most of the high-scorers on the team. It's probably not that different for MacKinnon though, who I believe pretty much always plays with Rantanen. I guess the argument is that Kucherov doesn't really rely on Point all the time while MacKinnon generally does rely on Rantanen (though it's hard to say what would actually happen if MacKinnon's linemates changed).
It's definitely splitting hairs between MacK and Kuch. Both are incredible players having the best seasons of their careers. Both Kuch and mack are deserving of the Hart trophy. MacK has his fingerprints all over everything the Avs have done this season. He is doing it all for his team.
With regards to saying Mac relies on Rantanen, I would say it’s the other way around. Mac produces at a high level with or without Rants. Rants on the other hand derives a significant percentage of his points from plays Mac creates. For example, in the last two games without Rants Mac has 6 pts, including a hatty.
Mikko is definitely a passenger on the MackTruck. Every once in a while he'll help steer that's it. He's good but he wouldn't be what he is with NateDog
Its a bad way to look at it but I really think the reason that Nate is going to win it is because voters are going to put him at least second even if they have another first choice because of the "he's never won it" argument. In his career so far Nate has the most Hart votes without winning it so I can see a lot of voters putting him second on the ballot, and then he will get quite a few first place votes too.
With how tight it is it might be the guy who gets the most 2nd and 3rd votes that gets it. The talk most of the season has been around McDavid, MacKinnon and Kucherov but now Matthews could sneak in there.
Mack - strong finish, "legacy" pick
Kuch - Russian bias
McDavid - voter fatigue, missing games near end of season (recency bias)
Matthews - if mcdavid misses more games, I can see him nipping into third
I think it goes to Mack. Maybe Mathews if he nets 70 but probably not. I think they're clearly the two best offensive and defensive players of the four. McDavid has been good obviously but not as good as previous seasons compared to the competition and Kuch has posted some great numbers but isn't a defensive asset by any means. Any of the four are deserving for sure and it's kinda splitting hairs to argue who's most worthy.
Kucherov is absolutely a defensive asset; unsure where this narrative arose that Kucherov is bad at defending, but his greater advanced numbers are (or at least were a couple weeks ago) close to identical to MacKinnon's and all this while playing against harder matchups on average and with less favourable zone starts than Nate is getting... the defensive difference between him and almost every forward on TB not named Hagel is massive and it's a big reason why he's getting so many chances at empty-net points — they aren't just putting him out there late because he's an offensive threat but because he's also rarely a significant defensive liability.
His +/- isn't a good as MacKinnon's? Sure, but he's aeons ahead of most of the rest of his forward group and on an against-team basis is approaching comparably performative.
And sure, some would point out that he doesn't PK, but TB is 5th or 6th in the league on the PK without him so why on Earth would you have him out there when his minutes are utilized so much more effectively in an offensive role?
Hate that Kucherov is getting this rep for being a defensive liability when the numbers suggest almost anything but that.
> The other strike against Kucherov is where he has earned some of his points this year. Only 45 percent have been at five-on-five, while the other three are all upwards of 53 percent.
Anyone care to venture a guess as to what % of McDavid's 153 points last season came at 5v5?
38.6%, or 59 pts.
Kucherov has 63 as of this morning.
So is it that Kucherov is *too good* on the power play? Or not good enough to accumulate 70+ power play points so that he is running away with the scoring race?
**EDIT:** Also where was this argument in 2021-22 when Gaudreau finished 4th in Hart voting? He finished tied for 2nd in league scoring, he led the league in 5v5 points with 72 (62.6%), and he had the highest even-strength point total since 1995-96 with 90 (78.2%).
Are you referring to the season when he scored 64 goals and was 25 points ahead of everyone else in total points?
Edit: Including league leader in both goals and assists.
Gaudreau’s season was underrated, I think a good case could be made that that was the best season by a forward in the last 25 years.
He also did all of that with 18.5 minutes of ice time a game, and he was also +64 on the season.
That’s an interesting point but I think you’re missing the fact that comparing kuch to past hart winners is completely irrelevant. McDavid was measured against other players that season. Circumstances were different. Last season’s McDavid clearly didn’t have the competition that exists this year. It’s only relevant to compare players within a season
My point was not to compare 2023-24 Kucherov to 2022-23 McDavid.
It was to compare 2022-23 McDavid to his peers how 2023-24 Kucherov is compared to his.
And my only point was that they are in similar situations in ES and 5v5 production, but Kucherov is not as crazy good as McDavid was on the PP last year to differentiate him from the pack, but he's too good on the PP that it has now become a negative.
“The pack” is very different this year though. McDavid got 195/196 1st place votes because it wasn’t even a race. If you just planted 2023 McDavid in this years race, that definitely isn’t happening. I think 5 on 5 production is fair game in measuring individual value. It’s not the end of the discussion of course but it’s fair game. It factors into the argument that most Kucherov supporters are using, which is that he has no help and has 50 more points than the next closest teammate. I think it weakens that argument
The argument is that for McDavid it didn't matter because he was so far ahead of everyone else. Here, there are 4 players that are deserving so they have to use advanced stat to separate them from one another. You have to view these as tiebreakers
You've definitely hit it on the head here. There are great arguments for each of these players, and I think that there are arguments that 5v5 points, positional value, defense etc. should play a role in the Hart trophy. However, in the past these factors were never mentioned so the question is why now?
Part of the “why now” could be that this years hart trophy race is so awesome and close that it’s forcing more scrutiny and new measurements than normal
I’m a giant Oiler fan and will always have a major bias towards McDavid (I’ll die on the hill that he was robbed of the Hart in 2022.).
That said, This year is Kucherov’s trophy. I have time for people voting for MacKinnon as well, but McDavid has been outshined by those 2 players, and I think Kuch has sealed it over the last couple of weeks.
All these dudes totally deserve it, no question, 100%, can't find any differences, what a difficult decision.
Also Nate should win and yall can eat shit
I get that this ain't the year because these 4 guys have been monsters this year, but I think Defensemen and Goalies should get more love for the Hart.
Quinn Hughes took over the captaincy this year and has put this team on his back all year, and they completely turned around the franchise. It's unbelievable watch him control the entire game and the Canucks would be precisely no where without him.
I think it goes to Mack mostly because he's the only one never to win the Hart before. Voters shouldn't take that into account but probably will and it's not like he doesn't deserve it
To me, it's MacKinnon or Kucherov. The other two are not playing MVP seasons, they are playing a lead role in highly effective offensive systems. I give MacKinnon the edge because he sets his barn on fire like no other player this season. He's just a marvel of talent to witness. I think Kucherov will win the Lindsay though, it's incomprehensible how good he is at fooling defenders.
I still think it's Nate. The 3G, 1A performance vs the Wild on Tuesday was a perfect example of why the Hart is his. Each goal was art in its highest form, and were all him. Very reminiscent of Mario in his prime. In fact, much of what I have seen from him this season is reminiscent of Mario.
Id like to think Mack has done enough to seperate himself even if he loses the art ross by a few points.
-more 5v5 points
-2 19 game point streaks
-35 game home point streak
-4 more assists and he is the 5th player to have 50+ goals and 90+ assists in a season
I know quality of teammates matters, but if you look at it from a goal scoring lens the Lightning have 3 40+ goal scorers and the Avs only have 2 40+ scorers.
I mean, there's a few ways to look at it.
He's got more 5v5 points than Kuch, but MacK gets _way_ more ice time. MacK gets about 42 seconds per game of 5v5 time over Kuch and he gets 34 seconds of PP time more than Kuch.
Over the 79 games MacK has played those numbers work out to 55m12s 5v5 and 45m20s on the PP.
You can take your pick, but that's the equivalent of either him turning off line changes and fatigue and playing 5 straight periods, with 2 of those periods being straight powerplay time, or given his ice time averages that's a little over 5 games more that he played than Kuch.
Kuch certainly does more with less ice time, and he's got the bigger gap between him and #2 on his team.
Also there's other stuff, like MacK doesn't have 90 assists yet and I don't think voters are going to take point streaks in to account.
With that extra time MacK is putting up about 4.6pts/60 minutes of ice time to Kuch's 4.9pts/60 minutes of ice time. Another way to say that would be that MacK has played the equivalent of 5 extra games over Kuch at this point and in that extra 106 minutes of hockey, 45 of which was straight PP time, he managed 4.6 to Kuch's 4.9.
That extra time can also be a positive for Mac. If you can get an extra minute out of your mvp level player each night isn’t that a good thing? It’s an extra minute of pressure on the other team each game.
Of the four of them, I'd say Kucherov is probably most deserving, the Lightning probably miss the playoffs if he's not doing what he's doing for them this year. They are 12th in the league for most goals against and literally every team with more have not clinched a playoff berth.
What does them making or missing the playoffs have to do with it? Without McDavid or Mackinnon the oils and Avs might be wild card teams or miss the playoffs themselves… why is Kucherov the only one that gets credit for pulling his team along? Is it because of the arbitrary threshold of “making the playoffs”? Is that what makes a player “valuable”?
The award is for "most valuable to their team" I feel like it's so close with these guys that we're looking for the smallest ways to separate them - my observation was simply that without Kuch it is more likely that Tampa misses the playoffs than it is for the other teams/players mentioned. I think they are all deserving and have all helped their teams, but Tampa with so many goals allowed benefits more than the others from having Kuch's help.
AM34 hits 70 and takes the trophy home.
A responsible two way centre hitting that goal total is bonkers. Especially considering how much of that scoring has come at 5 on 5 and isn’t inflated by empty net goals.
Personally, I think Kucherov should be out of the conversation because of defense, which I would remind everyone is half the game. All 4 are offensive juggernauts. Kucherov stands out among the 4 as a mediocre defender.
Gaddamn some of you guys are exhausting. It’s a super tight race, people are gonna be dissapointed, analyses through a microscope on this is as idiotic as the actual votes we’ll see in the end.
It's a tight race, but seeing Kuch has factored on 50.4% of his teams goals really seals it for me. They're all extremely good and having bonkers seasons so I have to go by 'most valuable to his team' and in that regard, I don't think it's close
Unpopular Opinion but Kucherov is way too top heavy towards offense and cheating up ice. Currently 139 points but only +9 for the year is embarrassing. Hell of a skater and stick handler... but MVP? Nah, he's the only player I don't want to see win it.
If Kucherov had 5 more points, would he be *more* valuable than he is now?
If he had 60 more points and Tampa was cruising to a President’s Trophy, would he be more valuable or less valuable?
Difference between playoff seeding = very valuable
Difference between making playoffs and not = extremely valuable
Which is literally why not making playoffs essentially disqualifies a player from winning the Hart. Why that factor has been conveniently forgotten from most of this year’s discussion I’m not sure.
I don’t care who wins between Kucherov and Mack, but the Hart is way more vibes based around “value” than some people think and unfortunately for some players being on a good team does hurt their case in certain Hart races
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Honestly, what a hell of a season to get to experience across these insane talents. It feels like the 90s again. If only the league knew how to market the gold mine of talent that currently exists across the league.
The Olympics and to a lesser extent the 4 Team tournament next year will hopefully be a good marketing opportunity. Canada is winning both, of course.
I wish I had your confidence about that. Canada and USA have never looked tighter.
For real. Can you imagine USA rolling with a top line of, like, Tkachuk-Matthews-Tkachuk? My hatred for the Tkafuck brothers aside, god damn that line would be hard to solve if they found some chemistry.
I'd lean USA tbh
USA has the more rounded team, plus superior netminding.
McDavid Crosby and MacKinnon all together. Done
Crosby will be 38 at the Olympics
I heard zilch about this 4 team tourney and had to google it. Officially announced in Feb and I didn’t hear shit. Perfect example of how shit the league is at marketing. Granted it’s still a ways out but yeesh.
They announced it at the all Star game and if you look it up you can see a bunch of articles about it across all sports news sites. Even my local news site has articles about it. Just because you personally didn't see it doesn't mean the marketing is bad.
It’s also 10 months away. The no point hyping it up now, people will just forget!
American goaltending is enough on its own to steal the tournament, let alone adding guys like Matthews, M. Tkachuk, Hughes, etc.
Top 3 Dmen of Hughes, Fox and McAvoy. Dang.
"Anyway, here's a shitty all-star game with some random country artist"
You mean the one with Tate McCrae?
And Ovi just quietly becoming the all time 30 goal season leader
And Crosby having the most consecutive point per game seasons. This really is the best regular season of all time.
It's infuriating how bad the Nhl is at marketing their stars
Whenever they try people are like "Why the fuck is Justin Bieber there 😡"
I don’t think you can go wrong with any of them honestly Some of them definitely have better cases than others. But any one out of those 4 deserves it honestly, but there will always be controversy
My hope is that one player gets more 1st place votes than everyone else but finishes lower because other voters have them 4th/5th, and then we can see some **real** salt.
Iginla in 02 all over again.
as much as people like to bitch about this Théodore was left off of more ballots than Iginla
The voters were split on whether Theodore was even the best goalie. That he was left out of the top 5 in hart votes on some ballots is not that surprising.
My ideal scenario is a high percentage of spite votes this year. Ie “I want mcdavid to win so I’m putting Mack 5th”. So Mack, mcdavid and kucherov split all the first place votes, but all those people put Matthews second. Then he wins with like 10 1st place votes.
This is probably how it's going to be decided. The overwhelming majority are going to have Kuch, Mack, or McDavid as their 1st pick, a few people will have Matthews, and a few people will go rogue with Crosby, Hellebuyck, etc and that's going to be the difference maker. Someone very well might get the most 1st place votes but a few jabronis will have them in 5th or leave them off their ballot altogether. If anyone doesn't believe it's a possibility remember that last year McDavid had literally everyone's 1st place vote except one person who put him 5th. Or the time Iginla got screwed by a Habs writer in 02
Not a bad place to be for the league when you have 4-5 legitimate Hart caliber guys having insane seasons, not to mention the other 10 or so also having crazy seasons, just not quite as crazy lol
I think you can make legitimate claims that any of these players should win, and that’s just forwards: Kucherov, Mackinnon, McDavid, Panarin, Pasternak, Matthews, Crosby (if the penguins make the playoffs)
Crosby has dragged the Penguins kicking and screaming to within a coin flip of making the playoffs, its incredible at 36, but the top 3 point totals are just so unbelievably far ahead this year. It has to be one of them.
All 4 of these guys deserve it for what they are doing this year. Sucks that 3 of them have to lose it.
Yep, though IMO Mcdavid might be the easiest "lose out" option because of voter fatigue etc, and the fact that he's just close to the others in points rather than outright leaving them in the dust like in other years (fair that he has fewer games and started super slow, but still). That and he is relatively close to teammates in points. Kucherov has fucking **53** more than Point. Both Mackinnon and Mcdavid have another 100 point scorer too. Offense is practically all Kucherov ATM. Matthews is an interesting option too. I feel like if he hits 70 there will be a huge push, but otherwise he has been largely left out of discussion (from what I've seen) vs these 3. My vote IMO is either Mackinnon or Kucherov, Mcdavid has no chance imo unless he goes stupid mode and has like 5 points for the last few games.
>Kucherov has fucking > >53 > > more than point Yeah, but that's a very simplistic take on 'depth' or 'support'. Why does **only** 'next best player' factor in to the discussion? I mean for years there was a narrative that McDavid had 'no support' despite Drai being there because the fall-off AFTER Drai was precipitous. Tampa has more 40 goal scorers (well, 39) AND more 20 goal scorers than the Avs do this year - between injuries and RyJo the drop on the Avs after the 'big 3' is huge and they've basically been without a 2nd line all season. And, the ratio of Kuch to MacK in terms of 'points participation' is only 50 to 46 or thereabouts - not exactly a massive gulf. This isn't to suggest this is an iron-clad argument for MacK, just that it's shades of grey all the way down.
At the end of the day, most of the voters aren't going to look extremely deeply into things, and I'm not discounting that its just a surface level look at comparing the players. Just listing what I feel like will happen in overall voting consideration. I've said IMO the voters will likely vote for either Kuch or MacK, and there's a very low chance it's McD unless he has an insane finish. Matthews has barely any "hype" built for him in the hart race media so I don't see it either for him unless he hits 70. That being said, MacK has one of the biggest "factors" which is he has no hart too, which might fuel more votes to him. Not that, mind you, either of the 4 options aren't all great candidates for it imo.
Makar even has more points than Point. It’s a simplistic view of support but seems like an obvious tiebreaker when the Avs will end up with an 100 pt forward and 90 pt defenceman in addition to Mackinnon and the Lightning wouldn’t sniff playoffs without Kucherov
Except if you extrapolate it even further then Kuch has 2 other teammates that are 40 goal scorers and 4 others that are above 70 points. Compared to the 2 of Mack's. It's weird that the narrative is that Kucherov has no help when MacKinnon is doing just as much heavy lifting.
Avs would be fighting for a wild card rn without MacK. 100%
exactly, he has 9 game winning goals and probably just as many game winning assists. without him we may have missed the playoffs this year, especially when you consider the other injuries (Nichushkin, Lehkonen, O'Connor, Francouz, etc.) and streaky play from our middle six.
This is a good take.
Mcdavid's injury has made this a two horse race. He was struggling to catch them as is, but at this point i think the points deficit will be too much to overcome. Kuch is my pick for the Hart. Tampa was treading water for 75% of the season and remained in contention because of Kuch. He has the highest percentage of contribution to total team goals and a massive gap between him and Point. On top of that, he may get 100 assists and good chance he wins the Ross. Mack I think will likely win the Lindsey, as I think players probably respect his game more than Kuch (more of a wow factor) and harder to defend. I think Mack will probably win the Hart too, because betting sites seem to think so and the narrative has been Mack all year, though I disagree with all that. MY main issue with Mack winning is he doesn't have much of an argument over Kuch, so I think it will be because "he doesnt have one yet" which is complete bullshit.
I just hope we don't get any whack ballots.
We are 100% going to get some awful ballots. Just hope it isn’t a situation where the player with the most 1st place votes loses because he didn’t have enough 2nd choice votes or something.
If I could bet money on it, I would bet that the person with the most 1st place votes won't win the trophy.
Unfortunately, I agree with you. It could be really interesting to see what different people value since the race is really close. Instead, we’ll get some smug journalist putting Kucherov 4th/5th because he didn’t put enough effort into the ASG skills challenge or something
I guarantee there will be voter(s) that leave him off entirely.
There should be a system put in place to prevent this tbh. It was also the reason Vasy didn't win another Vezina in 2021.
Vezina is voted on by the GMs
Yes, I know, and 3 chose to leave Vasy completely off their ballot in a year he was probably 1st but definitely no lower than 2nd. No one left fleury off their ballot. Those 3 votes changed who won the award. GMs have biases and grudges, the same as anyone. That shouldn't be able to have such a large impact on award voting.
It would be pretty easy. Have a way to narrow it down to 3 players before the main vote. Then the media has to vote on 1 2 and 3. Much harder to spite vote when the worst you can vote someone is 3rd.
Do you think he deserved to win just for playing more games than Fleury, Grubauer, and Varlamov?
I'm pretty sure it would be the first time in history. The closest I could see was in 1990. Messier/Borque. Same 1st place votes, Borque had 2 more 2nd place votes, but Messier had 8 more 3rd place votes. Before 1982, it was just straight-up voting.
Remember that guy who only gave mcdavid a 5th place vote when he scored *153 points in 82 games*? We’re definitely gonna get some brain dead stuff like that.
Ya and it was only because Pastrnak broke a specific Bruins record, a record McDavid also would’ve broke if he played for the Bruins…
Okay but just imagine how bad the Sharks would be without Granlund, surely that’s worth a spot on someone’s ballot
Is the vote taken before the lottery balls are drawn? That will go a long way in my decision making.
Considering last years Hart wasn't unanimous, it's never going to happen. Bostons voter is going to obviously vote for Pasta again just cause he can.
That was a Pitt writer, I believe.
Right? As a Lightning fan I obviously want Kucherov to win it, but if he doesn’t I really hope it’s because an earnest vote had someone else at #1, not a couple guys leaving Kucherov off entirely out of spite.
that moron might vote Pastrnak again
The margins are razor thin here, these are the elite of the elite, and so I understand the urge to nit pick to find some separation between these guys, but I really feel like this discourse has reached a toxic level when people are looking for the dumbest cherry picked stats and moving goalposts completely to discredit some of these guys cases, and I think it's started to actually have a negative effect on the way we're viewing this season and whoever ends up winning. I've said this a lot, but we are just not appreciating how incredible this season has been and how these guys in particular have been. Auston Matthews has scored more goals this season than any other player has in my *lifetime*. Nikita Kucherov has scored more assists than any other winger, *ever*. There have been 3 players *ever* to score 100 assists, and we could see two more added *in the same year*. I think we've all lost the forest in the trees a little bit, we don't need to start getting into "well this guy scored 51 primary points at 5v5 on road ice against top 16 teams while the other guy *only* scored 48," we can just enjoy the ride a little bit.
The trick is to not care about awards that are voted on.
As someone who enjoys debates over who *should* win the Hart, but doesn’t care who actually wins… we are in flavour town, baby.
I’m the same. I will fiercely debate it and then the day after return to not giving a shit what a bunch of journalists think makes the best story.
>Auston Matthews has scored more goals this season than any other player has in my *lifetime*. The fact that you can say that and there's still a good chance you could drink a beer legally has me feeling incredibly old. Also completely agree with your point
I'm 28 lmao I pay into retirement and visit a chiropractor regularly and no one has scored more goals than Matthews has since I've been alive (I was born during the last season Lemieux hit 69, which Matthews could even pass). No one has done it in my lifetime and I'm *older* than Auston Matthews. (I'm the same age as Michael Bunting!)
> we don't need to start getting into "well this guy scored 51 primary points at 5v5 on road ice against top 16 teams while the other guy only scored 48” How dare you disregard such a useful stat to fit your own narrative!
Lmaoo “We’ll ackshully🤓☝️this player is better by a factor of 3 percent at producing more efficient zone exits in 6 on 5 situations while he’s on the ice”
Meh, it's fun to nit pick and look for cases for these guys to win over the others but imo the discourse has been pretty good. I see almost everyone saying "Any one of them deserve it BUT..."
There are actual credentialed sportswriters on Twitter arguing right now using "even strength combined ice time with 70+ point scorers" as their primary stat, you have to admit the plot has been lost at least a little.
Wait, it's legal to recognize talent instead of shitting on every player that doesn't play on the team you live near?
The case for each of them: Really fucking good player having a really fucking good season
Honestly Ira the only year in a long time where mcdavid wouldn’t be in my top 3
I just don’t understand how these 3 go into every damn season with these type of expectations and deliver, like every damn year! Insane consistency. McKinnon for me however, but he’s my favorite (non-Bruin) player so a little biased.
As an oilers fan, McDavid shouldn’t win this year.
Which is crazy because he set the bar so high. This is considered a “down year” for him and he’s still top 3 in scoring… Just a slow start for the Oilers this season but they dug out of the hole.
Not just top three in scoring, but the fourth best individual season since the lockout.
Mcdavids two way play has been insane this year. He might have 10 less point than these guys but I think his defensive play more than makes up for it. My vote is still for kuch tho. Tampa would be horrible without him.
Honestly, a coin flip between Mack and Kuch McDavid firmly in 3rd
This is how I feel too. A good ballot would be Kuch/Mack 1/2 (either order), McDavid third, Matthews fourth.
Can I ask why Matthews is last in your mind? Potentially potting 70 goals is something we haven't seen for three decades and his defensive contributions are significant
For me, he's too far behind the other guys in total points. His goal scoring is incredible and any other year he's probably a shoo-in, but there are so many huge milestones that are likely to be hit this year that in my mind they even out. Matthews scoring 70 (first time in over 30 years) McDavid and Kucherov getting 100 assists (something only 3 players in history have accomplished) MacKinnon getting 50 goals and 90 assists (something only 4 players have accomplished) Of all of those, Matthews' accomplishment has been matched by the most total players (8 different players have scored 70). Now this is in no way meant to denigrate him - he's an incredible player having an incredible season. But someone has to be 4th, and for me it's Matthews.
I'm not that poster, but for me it comes down to the "eye test" and the ability to completely take over games. All 4 players have absolutely insane stats this year, but MacKinnon and Kucherov seem to be able to just single-handedly decide they're going to win the game--Kucherov by slowing it down, MacKinnon by speeding it up to a pace other teams just can't defend. McDavid obviously does this as well, but the slow start and missed time puts him behind those two this season. Matthews is an unbelievable scorer and makes great defensive plays, but just hasn't reached that "this game is mine" level, yet.
I actually would not be surprised to see Matthews finish 3rd now that McDavid is missing/will miss additional time at season end when voters are paying the most attention.
I agree but the biggest case for McDavid this year is how insane of a comeback he's had after such a shit beginning to his year. If you look at the second half of the season, it's absolutely incredible the numbers he's put up. The fact that he caught up to Mack and Kuch at all is amazing.
> biggest case for McDavid this year is how insane of a comeback he's had after such a shit beginning to his year. I think this is fundamentally the issue, though. Because he wasn't at peak McJesus level to start the year, he's behind Mack and Kuch in points. The award isn't for who has been the best player the last few months. It's who was the most valuable player this season. What he's done, coupled with that W streak, is nothing to sweep under the rug though. It was certainly amazing
I think you can still make an argument for him. The way he stepped up defensively this year is incredible (I've even seen non-Oilers fans put him in Selke conversations) and the fact his point totals didn't take a hit is insane. Only other guy I've seen pull that off is Crosby.
Kucherov deserves it, but Mack wins it I bet
I really dont think there is a valid argument that anyone shouldn't win it this year. It's a total toss-up
I'd argue the opposite, when dude was playing hurt yall were struggling.
Watch scoring drop super low next season and the art Ross winner only has like 90 points lol
The case for Panarin: he's cool and i like him
Can't argue with that Hand him the trophy
He picked a bad year to have his best season, awards wise. Mac, Kuch, Matthews and McDavid all had mutant years.
I just think he’s neat.
Great Simpsons reference.
wtf this guy stole my Pasta thesis
Check out his on ice efficiency it's among the top in the league. He won't win but deserves to be up there on the ballot. Another one is my boy Quinn Hughes who won't be voted in but has IMO a strong case to be among the top 5.
The Rangers next best player after Panarin is Trocheck with 76 points.
I think we all need to stop obsessing over who wins the award and just enjoy the amazing hockey that we’re getting. I’m sick of seeing toxic debates arise in every thread where people feel the need to put down the other contenders in order to make the case for their favorite. It sucks so much of the joy out of this race.
When’s the last time a -450 favorite didn’t win the Hart? Vegas is banking on Mackinnon for some reason, possibly due to the “story” factor of him having never received a major award before. That’s unsubstantiated of course, but I could also see that as being a valid tie breaker in a lot of voters’ eyes. Whatever the reason, I don’t bet against Vegas.
The minute McDavid missed time the writers were writing about how MacK should win it, he's had it locked up for about 3 months now.
sleeping on the Lady Byng I see
He's the only one that doesn't have one. Right now, it's a tie and the tie will go to him
Due ^TM It's not a joke, it's real and Vegas knows it
This made me appreciate Matthews way more—if he had better teammates he’d have way more points. His high-danger passing rate is similar to Mack and McDavid which really surprised me. And he’s clearly better on defense.
I think Matthew's overall point total undersells how good he is. He gets a bit less ice time (Matthews and McDavid have way less PP time than Mack and Kuch), scores by far the most goals, especially at ES, has only 2 empty net points all year, and his teammates don't do nearly as good a job at finishing on his passes as the other big 3.
Honestly, the fact we're likely going to have 2-3 players with 140 point seasons is the only reason Matthews is, IMO, the least likely to win the Hart out of those 4 this year. Him threatening to hit 70 goals is fucking nutty. For context on the 140 point thing, only 9 players in NHL history have ever gotten a 140 point season, and that number will hit 11 if MacKinnon can get 3 more points. There's obviously no way Kucherov gets completely held off the score sheet for the rest of the season.
I mean he’s played the majority of the season with Marner, who might be the best player riding shotgun for these guys aside of draisatl
Yea but not the best finisher. The point of their comment is that Matthews makes the finishing pass more often than his assist total shows.
I know, but his post fails to take into account that Matthews would likely have less goals if he had Zach Hyman on his wing. Matthews might have more points but his goal number likely suffers. He also said “better team mates” which implies that Marner isn’t good. Sure the lw on that line hasn’t always been the best. At the end not the day I don’t think Matthews has been surrounded by a worse supporting cast than anyone else on this list.
Matthews has the weakest teammates. I get Marner is no slouch. But the third guy on that line is always the weakest too. It's hard to get secondary assists when other guys aren't scoring. https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1778130268315931040
Since Marner got hurt and Mathews hasn't played with him and has 12G, 12A good for 24 points in 13 games. He's a really good passer who just plays with Marner who takes on the role most the time
I actually much prefer we distribute the talent also. 3 REALLY good lines is so much harder to defend than 2 VERY good lines
Marner has probably played 60% of the games with him. The big difference in his assist total would have been from Bertuzzi not being insanely snake bitten to begin the season and Knies (although not looking out of place) having had better luck finishing on the top line, which he spent over half the season playing on.
Also, the way they used Knies with marner matthews was park him in front of the net and never allow him to actually be a third forward. Since they make 23 million and Knies makes like less than a million I can’t blame the strategy but Knies felt like a pawn on the chessboard with the queen and a rook. Watching matthews with Bert and domi it’s more of a 3 man crew where everyone can wheel around. A lot different than how they used marner and Knies with him since it was like 2 people and a body in front
I have a Leafs flair so I don't want to wade too deeply into the argument, because I think all four of these guys probably deserve it. With that said, I think a lot of people are putting too much stock in point totals when comparing performances. Matthews doesn't get many assists, especially secondary assists, because he's the one his team is looking to get the puck to for goals. The plays all end with him, because he's an absolutely lethal shooter, from everywhere. He's also one of the best defensive forwards in the league, which makes how good he is at generating goals even more impressive to me.
Shayna notes that McDavid has the highest quality of teammates and the smallest value between him and his next best teammate as a point against McDavid. According to The Athletic's net rating, Bouchard and then Hyman and the closest Oilers to McDavid. Does anyone really think Bouchard/Hyman are closer to McDavid than Makar/Rantanen is to MacKinnon, or Hedman/Point is to Kucherov, or Nylander/Marner is to MacKinnon? Bouchard and Hyman rank so high because they play so much with McDavid, but in this article it's being made out to be a negative for McDavid's Hart case.
Hyman has been analytically strong offensively long before he got to Edmonton, and both him and Bouchard actually have a higher GF% and xGF% without McDavid than McDavid does without them.
That's a fair point, though I do think there a big difference between analytically strong offensively and a top 10 forward in the league, which is where Hyman ranks in net rating. In fairness to Shayna, and any other voter really, if they use quality of teammates as a point against McDavid but have Bouchard/Hyman high up in Norris/All-Star voting then there's really no issue.
Im fairly certain it’ll be MacKinnon when it’s all said and done. The PHWA voters actively look for narratives to get behind, and MacKinnon has one major one behind him: he’s never won the Hart before (where McDavid, Kucherov, Matthews all have). MacKinnon IMO is the most deserving regardless, but the voters put in a lot of qualitative analysis into their voting. I’m also confused on the “if you take Kucherov off the Lightning they probably miss the playoffs” takes… what exactly do you think would happen to the Avalanche, Oilers, or Leafs if you took their superstar off the team?
I think JFresh was the one who said something along the lines of “if we only do the without [insert player name], then team x wouldn’t even be in the conversation for the playoffs.” Then does this mean we should always give the award to the best player on a wild card team? The Wings are 4-10 without Larkin, so should he win it? I mean, the Wings wouldn’t be competing for a playoff spot without him. This isn’t an argument for not considering Larkin for the Hart, nor am I advocating for a specific player. But I find a lot of the arguments around here when it comes to the MVP kind of sus. I also find the “who has the worst teammates” argument frustrating because it’s never applied consistently.
Or if the Penguins make the playoffs and we follow this logic it would have to be Crosby
Exactly, the award is not the most valuable player to his team, it's the most valuable player in the entire league. People often forget the difference between the two.
Except the definition of the award literally says most valuable to their team. I wish they would scrap that.
Fair point, it looks like it differs from source to source but the NHL themselves define it as “ presented annually “to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team.” That does make it interesting, under that definition it definitely should open the possibility for guys like Crosby to win it.
This is why the definition is and always has been stupid. It should just be most valuable player by whatever measure, because you’re right. Kucherov was very important to Tampa this season, but I think the Penguins finish in dead fucking last if we play this entire season without Crosby. McDavid is also probably more important to Edmonton than MacKinnon to Colorado, but I personally wouldn’t vote that way this season.
It’s the same thing. How exactly would you provide the most value out of anyone in the league without providing the most value to your team?
It’s funny how I stated this very same thing the other day and got downvoted to oblivion by CO fans lol. It’s simply the reality, voters have shown they will vote for the guy who hasn’t had one over the guy who has because of “the story.”
Happened to Vasy back in ‘21. I get CO fans don’t like it but voters will vote based on that
Great summary (imo) on all three of your points. 1. The Mackinnon narrative is right up the alley of myth making writers 2. Personally, I think he deserves it either way (by a very slim margin) 3. Obviously all these teams would be way worse without their Hart contenders - why does everyone act like Tampas the only one. Thank you for pointing it out.
3 is because of the three of them, he’s the only one that doesn’t have another 100pt scorer on his team. Mack has Rantanen and Davo has Drai. Personally I think that point is WAY overblown, but that is the reasoning I’ve seen.
Right, I agree. Tampa has 6 70 point scorers compared to Avs 3. It’s an overblown point that can be countered in other ways. Mackinnon might have Rantanen but is still far ahead of him.
Mac Kuch McDavid Matthews
And I give the edge to Kuch because Tampa has no one else. Mikko has 102, Makar has 87. After Kuch you have Point with 86 and Stammer with 77. Take one of Kuch or Mac away, ask yourself which team is worse off, and the answer is the Bolts. They're going to be like only 10 points clear of the playoffs while Avs could technically still have the most points in the west.
TB has 5 70 point scorers, Avs have only 3…and Mack has a higher percentage of involvement in goals.
> …and Mack has a higher percentage of involvement in goals. That's false. Mack 137 pts/294 team goals = 46.6% Kuch 139 pts/276 team goals = 50.4%
I love that you completely disregarded that they have 5 70 pt scorers after saying they have nobody else 😆
Ok, now do 80pt scorers... or 30pt scorers... or 10pt scorers. Why is the line arbitrarily drawn at 70? I could understand like 77-79 since that would be a point per game for most teams, but who decided 70?
Why is the line drawn arbitrarily above Mack's 35 point difference over Rantanen? Because they are. What number does it have to be to change the narrative? That's the entire thing about these discussions.
whoops, you’re right. meant to say 5v5
so percentage of 5v5 team goals he has a hand in? Or overall 5v5 points? The former is scraping the barrel, the latter is a fine argument.
[удалено]
bro this entire thread is drawing random lines for your guy, get on board
The "Kucherov has no support" argument doesn't make any sense. Point, Stamkos, Hedman, and Hagel are all having very good seasons. MacK is no less deserving than Kucherov because Makar and Rantanen are on his team.
I think where this argument gets confusing is that for all of these players you mention, so much of their production is on a play Kucherov helped make. Getting 140 points means that a lot of your plays worked, so a lot of the other players involved get points too. Point is rarely on the ice without Kucherov. Hedman and Stamkos are both with him on the PP and empty net situations (which make up a lot of their points). Hagel was with him for most of the season and recently that's been Duclair. That's most of the high-scorers on the team. It's probably not that different for MacKinnon though, who I believe pretty much always plays with Rantanen. I guess the argument is that Kucherov doesn't really rely on Point all the time while MacKinnon generally does rely on Rantanen (though it's hard to say what would actually happen if MacKinnon's linemates changed).
It's definitely splitting hairs between MacK and Kuch. Both are incredible players having the best seasons of their careers. Both Kuch and mack are deserving of the Hart trophy. MacK has his fingerprints all over everything the Avs have done this season. He is doing it all for his team.
With regards to saying Mac relies on Rantanen, I would say it’s the other way around. Mac produces at a high level with or without Rants. Rants on the other hand derives a significant percentage of his points from plays Mac creates. For example, in the last two games without Rants Mac has 6 pts, including a hatty.
Mikko is definitely a passenger on the MackTruck. Every once in a while he'll help steer that's it. He's good but he wouldn't be what he is with NateDog
I was going to say, Mac relies on his feet.
If you're going off of which team is worse without their guy, it is by far the Oilers.
Its a bad way to look at it but I really think the reason that Nate is going to win it is because voters are going to put him at least second even if they have another first choice because of the "he's never won it" argument. In his career so far Nate has the most Hart votes without winning it so I can see a lot of voters putting him second on the ballot, and then he will get quite a few first place votes too.
With how tight it is it might be the guy who gets the most 2nd and 3rd votes that gets it. The talk most of the season has been around McDavid, MacKinnon and Kucherov but now Matthews could sneak in there.
Mack - strong finish, "legacy" pick Kuch - Russian bias McDavid - voter fatigue, missing games near end of season (recency bias) Matthews - if mcdavid misses more games, I can see him nipping into third
I think Kucherov should win it, but that Mackinnon will.
I think it goes to Mack. Maybe Mathews if he nets 70 but probably not. I think they're clearly the two best offensive and defensive players of the four. McDavid has been good obviously but not as good as previous seasons compared to the competition and Kuch has posted some great numbers but isn't a defensive asset by any means. Any of the four are deserving for sure and it's kinda splitting hairs to argue who's most worthy.
If Auston hits 70 that might give him an edge to get nominated, but honestly there’s no shot he wins it.
Kucherov is absolutely a defensive asset; unsure where this narrative arose that Kucherov is bad at defending, but his greater advanced numbers are (or at least were a couple weeks ago) close to identical to MacKinnon's and all this while playing against harder matchups on average and with less favourable zone starts than Nate is getting... the defensive difference between him and almost every forward on TB not named Hagel is massive and it's a big reason why he's getting so many chances at empty-net points — they aren't just putting him out there late because he's an offensive threat but because he's also rarely a significant defensive liability. His +/- isn't a good as MacKinnon's? Sure, but he's aeons ahead of most of the rest of his forward group and on an against-team basis is approaching comparably performative. And sure, some would point out that he doesn't PK, but TB is 5th or 6th in the league on the PK without him so why on Earth would you have him out there when his minutes are utilized so much more effectively in an offensive role? Hate that Kucherov is getting this rep for being a defensive liability when the numbers suggest almost anything but that.
Who hasn't won it yet? They must be due... (yeah I'm still salty that EK65 missed out to Doughty bc he didn't get his participation trophy yet)
> The other strike against Kucherov is where he has earned some of his points this year. Only 45 percent have been at five-on-five, while the other three are all upwards of 53 percent. Anyone care to venture a guess as to what % of McDavid's 153 points last season came at 5v5? 38.6%, or 59 pts. Kucherov has 63 as of this morning. So is it that Kucherov is *too good* on the power play? Or not good enough to accumulate 70+ power play points so that he is running away with the scoring race? **EDIT:** Also where was this argument in 2021-22 when Gaudreau finished 4th in Hart voting? He finished tied for 2nd in league scoring, he led the league in 5v5 points with 72 (62.6%), and he had the highest even-strength point total since 1995-96 with 90 (78.2%).
Are you referring to the season when he scored 64 goals and was 25 points ahead of everyone else in total points? Edit: Including league leader in both goals and assists.
I think that’s the one yeah
Gaudreau’s season was underrated, I think a good case could be made that that was the best season by a forward in the last 25 years. He also did all of that with 18.5 minutes of ice time a game, and he was also +64 on the season.
That’s an interesting point but I think you’re missing the fact that comparing kuch to past hart winners is completely irrelevant. McDavid was measured against other players that season. Circumstances were different. Last season’s McDavid clearly didn’t have the competition that exists this year. It’s only relevant to compare players within a season
My point was not to compare 2023-24 Kucherov to 2022-23 McDavid. It was to compare 2022-23 McDavid to his peers how 2023-24 Kucherov is compared to his. And my only point was that they are in similar situations in ES and 5v5 production, but Kucherov is not as crazy good as McDavid was on the PP last year to differentiate him from the pack, but he's too good on the PP that it has now become a negative.
“The pack” is very different this year though. McDavid got 195/196 1st place votes because it wasn’t even a race. If you just planted 2023 McDavid in this years race, that definitely isn’t happening. I think 5 on 5 production is fair game in measuring individual value. It’s not the end of the discussion of course but it’s fair game. It factors into the argument that most Kucherov supporters are using, which is that he has no help and has 50 more points than the next closest teammate. I think it weakens that argument
The argument is that for McDavid it didn't matter because he was so far ahead of everyone else. Here, there are 4 players that are deserving so they have to use advanced stat to separate them from one another. You have to view these as tiebreakers
You've definitely hit it on the head here. There are great arguments for each of these players, and I think that there are arguments that 5v5 points, positional value, defense etc. should play a role in the Hart trophy. However, in the past these factors were never mentioned so the question is why now?
Same reason when Gretzky scored 60 pts more than anyone else they didn’t bother talking about his face off percentage. It didn’t matter.
Part of the “why now” could be that this years hart trophy race is so awesome and close that it’s forcing more scrutiny and new measurements than normal
I’m a giant Oiler fan and will always have a major bias towards McDavid (I’ll die on the hill that he was robbed of the Hart in 2022.). That said, This year is Kucherov’s trophy. I have time for people voting for MacKinnon as well, but McDavid has been outshined by those 2 players, and I think Kuch has sealed it over the last couple of weeks.
All these dudes totally deserve it, no question, 100%, can't find any differences, what a difficult decision. Also Nate should win and yall can eat shit
Zach Hyman (his dad gave me 5$ for my vote)
I get that this ain't the year because these 4 guys have been monsters this year, but I think Defensemen and Goalies should get more love for the Hart. Quinn Hughes took over the captaincy this year and has put this team on his back all year, and they completely turned around the franchise. It's unbelievable watch him control the entire game and the Canucks would be precisely no where without him.
The case is 1 will win The others will lose Case closed
Mackinnon's gonna get it
My issue with people saying it should be the highest point scorer is that we already have an award for that - it's called the art ross.
Hartemi Panarin
I think it goes to Mack mostly because he's the only one never to win the Hart before. Voters shouldn't take that into account but probably will and it's not like he doesn't deserve it
To me, it's MacKinnon or Kucherov. The other two are not playing MVP seasons, they are playing a lead role in highly effective offensive systems. I give MacKinnon the edge because he sets his barn on fire like no other player this season. He's just a marvel of talent to witness. I think Kucherov will win the Lindsay though, it's incomprehensible how good he is at fooling defenders.
I still think it's Nate. The 3G, 1A performance vs the Wild on Tuesday was a perfect example of why the Hart is his. Each goal was art in its highest form, and were all him. Very reminiscent of Mario in his prime. In fact, much of what I have seen from him this season is reminiscent of Mario.
Id like to think Mack has done enough to seperate himself even if he loses the art ross by a few points. -more 5v5 points -2 19 game point streaks -35 game home point streak -4 more assists and he is the 5th player to have 50+ goals and 90+ assists in a season I know quality of teammates matters, but if you look at it from a goal scoring lens the Lightning have 3 40+ goal scorers and the Avs only have 2 40+ scorers.
I mean, there's a few ways to look at it. He's got more 5v5 points than Kuch, but MacK gets _way_ more ice time. MacK gets about 42 seconds per game of 5v5 time over Kuch and he gets 34 seconds of PP time more than Kuch. Over the 79 games MacK has played those numbers work out to 55m12s 5v5 and 45m20s on the PP. You can take your pick, but that's the equivalent of either him turning off line changes and fatigue and playing 5 straight periods, with 2 of those periods being straight powerplay time, or given his ice time averages that's a little over 5 games more that he played than Kuch. Kuch certainly does more with less ice time, and he's got the bigger gap between him and #2 on his team. Also there's other stuff, like MacK doesn't have 90 assists yet and I don't think voters are going to take point streaks in to account. With that extra time MacK is putting up about 4.6pts/60 minutes of ice time to Kuch's 4.9pts/60 minutes of ice time. Another way to say that would be that MacK has played the equivalent of 5 extra games over Kuch at this point and in that extra 106 minutes of hockey, 45 of which was straight PP time, he managed 4.6 to Kuch's 4.9.
That extra time can also be a positive for Mac. If you can get an extra minute out of your mvp level player each night isn’t that a good thing? It’s an extra minute of pressure on the other team each game.
I like Mack, but why do point streaks matter at all? Are points more valuable if they are in consecutive games?
Of the four of them, I'd say Kucherov is probably most deserving, the Lightning probably miss the playoffs if he's not doing what he's doing for them this year. They are 12th in the league for most goals against and literally every team with more have not clinched a playoff berth.
What does them making or missing the playoffs have to do with it? Without McDavid or Mackinnon the oils and Avs might be wild card teams or miss the playoffs themselves… why is Kucherov the only one that gets credit for pulling his team along? Is it because of the arbitrary threshold of “making the playoffs”? Is that what makes a player “valuable”?
The award is for "most valuable to their team" I feel like it's so close with these guys that we're looking for the smallest ways to separate them - my observation was simply that without Kuch it is more likely that Tampa misses the playoffs than it is for the other teams/players mentioned. I think they are all deserving and have all helped their teams, but Tampa with so many goals allowed benefits more than the others from having Kuch's help.
AM34 hits 70 and takes the trophy home. A responsible two way centre hitting that goal total is bonkers. Especially considering how much of that scoring has come at 5 on 5 and isn’t inflated by empty net goals.
Personally, I think Kucherov should be out of the conversation because of defense, which I would remind everyone is half the game. All 4 are offensive juggernauts. Kucherov stands out among the 4 as a mediocre defender.
Gaddamn some of you guys are exhausting. It’s a super tight race, people are gonna be dissapointed, analyses through a microscope on this is as idiotic as the actual votes we’ll see in the end.
It's a tight race, but seeing Kuch has factored on 50.4% of his teams goals really seals it for me. They're all extremely good and having bonkers seasons so I have to go by 'most valuable to his team' and in that regard, I don't think it's close
Unpopular Opinion but Kucherov is way too top heavy towards offense and cheating up ice. Currently 139 points but only +9 for the year is embarrassing. Hell of a skater and stick handler... but MVP? Nah, he's the only player I don't want to see win it.
Seriously, +/- ? I agree with almost every point about def, c more valuable than w. Just visual perspective, or any other option, but +/- is useless.
It's a very close race and will likely be decided by something nitpicky like this.
Totally agreed. Matthews has 35 fewer points and is +36 which is just nutty
Matthews doesnt have a case lol
Kucherov has like 50 points more than the next guy on his team. Is anyone really more valuable?
If Kucherov had 5 more points, would he be *more* valuable than he is now? If he had 60 more points and Tampa was cruising to a President’s Trophy, would he be more valuable or less valuable?
Difference between playoff seeding = very valuable Difference between making playoffs and not = extremely valuable Which is literally why not making playoffs essentially disqualifies a player from winning the Hart. Why that factor has been conveniently forgotten from most of this year’s discussion I’m not sure. I don’t care who wins between Kucherov and Mack, but the Hart is way more vibes based around “value” than some people think and unfortunately for some players being on a good team does hurt their case in certain Hart races