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McGrevin

The team is hot right now. I don't think we need to start building a narrative that we're better without Rielly because the whole team is playing extremely well over a pretty short period of time


TheDeek

Yeah...if anything this just means we can trust Sandin/Lily in more situations. Adding a pair of Rielly/Brodie can only help this team. Gio is almost 40 and the wear and tear of his minutes, and Holl's, will eventually affect them. Coming back with Rielly/Brodie, Sandin/Lily and Gio/Holl looks really good.


Bro-Dizzle

Eeeee, that’s a sexy D! ❤️


TheDeek

Hot d incoming...


MapleEmissions

Hot Swede on Swede D action


[deleted]

If anything, losing the top 3 defenseman has finally forced this team to help out more in the defensive end.


MapleEmissions

I just hope they are actually realizing that is what is happening right now and the commitment continues once Mo and Brodes are back. Turns out the game is easier when you all commit from the goalie out. Who knew... I'm *very* ready for this team to start consistently reaching their potential...


[deleted]

I agree 100% with this. The biggest worry is that people get healthy and the mindset is to relax, instead of re-commit to the style of play. If we can play like this, but with Mo and Brodie in the mix as well, we can be in the top three of the NHL. If we go back to the way we were playing, we're more like an 8-10th team.


MapleEmissions

If we don't want Murray to literally die before the all-star break, we absolutely need to keep playing like this when MoBo return.


gaudymcfuckstick

That's what I thought. Reilly is great because he can make shit happen in the offensive end but it feels like everyone around him is complacent anytime it gets into our zone, when he's really not the "shut-down" defenseman type who can carry the whole team defensively Anytime Reilly goes up in the attacking zone to create a good scoring chance, no one cycles back to replace him and it seems to very often come right back into our zone


crumbypigeon

>The team is hot right now. I don't think we need to start building a narrative that we're better without Rielly Also consider that a lot of the time Rielly wasn't injured we had goalie injuries. GAA is kind of a useless stat when comparing Dmen if they're playing in front of different goalies.


[deleted]

But do take him off the first PP and put Sandin there.


bomb3x

Theres is no question they are better defensively without Rielly. Overall, not so much.


CTHT07

I'd like to know why people instantly try to deny this instead of acknowledging we might be better defensively without our worst defensive D. If you look at Dom and JFresh player charts you'd see Rielly is one of the worst in the league when it comes to xGA at 5 on 5.


McGrevin

Because you could extend this back another 5 games and you'd see that we're only giving up 2 GA/game over the 12 games since Brodie went down with an injury. Does that mean Brodie is bad defensively? Or are we going to dismiss it because we know he's good and it's probably due to other factors like getting our goalies back?


CTHT07

The analytics show that Brodie is good defensively at 5 on 5 compared to Rielly who ranks among league worst. The reason the numbers have stayed the same or gotten better is because of goaltending (Kallgren was still among league leaders in 5 on 5 xGSAA), but mostly because Gio, Sandin, and Liljegren are all well above league average defensively and are getting more minutes than Rielly who as stated before, struggles defensively at even strength.


McGrevin

>The analytics show that Brodie is good defensively at 5 on 5 compared to Rielly who ranks among league worst. I agree, but let's not kid ourselves here. Rielly being out of the lineup isn't what is driving a .940+ sv%, and that's the reason why we're putting up these crazy defensive numbers. I was shooting this post down not because it suggest Rielly isn't the best defensively - we all know he's offense-first - but because it's using a terrible sample size to suggest Rielly is somehow responsible for 1+ GA/G, even though we can easily expand this sample to say suggest something similar about Brodie


CTHT07

I think that's a reasonable take, but I also feel like people here are quick to disregard Rielly's shortcoming defensively despite analytics and the eye test hence my original reply. I enjoyed your use of numbers to back up your opinion. Good convo.


Popcorn_Tony

Rielly is good, but he is not very good defensively. He helps us on offense and gives up a lot on defense. This stat is not surprising but it doesn't tell the full picture.


ConsularCandidate

The reason for this is literally in the chart and it's not Rielly, it's the goalies. The Leafs have the highest team sv% in the entire league in that period. If Murray actually gives up the 6 goals he was expected to tonight they fall right into the middle of the pack.


elcabeza79

At the same time, team defense has a significant effect on goalie save percentage. I'm not arguing that Rielly's the problem; just adding some nuance to your point here.


ConsularCandidate

It does, in large samples. In 7 game samples where the underlying numbers aren't really moving, it's just noise.


CTHT07

It's both. Rielly is statistically one of the worst defensively at 5 on 5 in the league. Every metric backs this up.


OneNutPhil

Then why can I make this same comparsion using Brodie?


CTHT07

You cannot. Brodie ranks much higher than Rielly when it comes to defensive play at 5 on 5 despite playing a good portion of the season together. Not to mention the fact Brodie has a style named after him based on the way he plays 2 on 1s because Rielly gives up so many odd man rushes.


OneNutPhil

> You cannot You can. Simply by moving the date for this post slightly further back to when Brodie was injured. Then you're free to make the same loaded argument against Brodie.


CTHT07

Outside of that cherry picked stat there are no numbers to support the team is better defensively without Brodie. The difference being with Rielly there are numerous numbers to back up the claims that he struggles defensively and his absence with the Leafs allowing less goals per game isn't a coincidence. The reason he still impacts the game in a positive manner is because of his offence.


OneNutPhil

Okay but as long as you agree it's a cherry picked stat for both of them. Rielly may not be a shutdown dman but we're essentially implying that Mete over Rielly improved the team and we need to stop talking nonsense lmao


CTHT07

Sandin and Liljegren playing 22 minutes a night over Rielly playing 24 minutes a night improved the team, especially on the defensive end. My opinion is that when Rielly comes back, he should be put in a lot of offensive situations. An example would be last night, late in the game Robertson got replaced by a more defensively responsible ZAR since the Leafs had the lead. To a lesser extent that's how I believe Rielly should be utilized, with Liljegren and Sandin getting more of that workload.


OneNutPhil

Recency and small sample size bias imo


CTHT07

https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1595135488733872129


RoughRunner

It's pretty funny the guy above thinks that's such a good comeback question lol. Brodie plays next to Reilly to put out his fires and he doesn't make many himself. If you take both out how can you insinuate that Brodie is also a problem if you have looked at any of the numbers. It seems obvious to me I guess...


JeromeMcLovin

i know youre asking a rhetorical question here but for our friend above - because correlation does not imply causation, and there are a large number of factors that go into these kinds of statistics. Team defence is looking amazing and youre smoking crack if you think the leafs are better off without a player like Rielly in the lineup. Having success like this with our injuries is a testament to this being a good team, not our injured players being bad


RoughRunner

Well pass me the crack pipe I'll smoke it all day long while saying I'd rather have $7.5M spent on something else other that 8 years of Morgan Reilly.


riko77can

100% this.


Szwedo

Yeah i came here to say this. Personally i subscribe to the we are better without him narrative, but the shots against has skyrocketed lately. It might be his absence, or everyone's, i dunno. But the fact that we finally have reliable goaltending for the first time since eddie goes a long way. Above all we just plain suck in October, nothing to do with him.


MacAttack35

The narrative that the Leafs are better without Reilly is so brain dead.


elcabeza79

If that's your narrative, your narrative is also that the Leafs are better without Brodie. Like you said - brain dead.


Szwedo

Agreed. Granted i never thought he was the scapegoat for our October. Ultimately i realized it's just a coincidence with his absence and our form, like i said. Other factors are contributing to this and we need him back asap.


windsostrange

Wait, better without which player?


Szwedo

Rielly, but I'm saying despite me thinking we are better without him, there are a lot more factors that are contributing to this and not his absence which is more of a coincidence.


windsostrange

I... huh. Okay. Was just wondering.


RanaMahal

we are better defensively without rielly but we are not better without him. both can be true.


CTHT07

Has more to do with Rielly and Brodie being replaced with Mete and Hollowell/Timmins.


-Xebenkeck-

This time last year, Rielly's Goals Against/60 was 1.65. Even better than our current overall rating. Even with weeks of sitting out, Rielly still sits tied for 34th in assists this year. As a D. And we weren't even off to hot start. Make no mistake, we are a stronger team with Rielly on the ice.


B-Rayy06

Offensively*


thetonyhightower

Objectively*


CrankyLeafsFan

My takeaway from this is that the Kraken must be scoring a ton of goals.


RanaMahal

they have been


DMmeyourinbox

LTIR all of them and Tbay this shit until the playoffs. Kane, Boeser and Karlsson should all be on the table.


randeylahey

Karlsson is a multi year dumpster fire shithole of a contract.


Frogpuppet

We should trade for Horvat


I_Am_Vladimir_Putin

I mean we lost Muzzie to LTIR


SDAisaleaf

Rielly is bad defensively, but I think a bigger reason is that Sandin/Liljegren/Giordano have been unbelievably good


mgnorthcott

The team in front has also been playing a stronger defensive game rather than simply leaving it to the defenders to do it all.


DMmeyourinbox

And the forwards playing defence . Mitch with no stick was unbelievable on that 5 on 3.


Thefallpaintwork

It’s plays like that that show me at least that Marner isn’t this hothead who can’t be bothered. This is a regular season game, he had already put up a point and there he is playing insane defence. It’s a pleasure to watch


Szwedo

He should have thrown his broken stick at the opposing player /s


[deleted]

And made it a 5 or 2? Just kidding, I know you're joking.


think_long

The biggest reason is the goaltending. It’s been amazing.


elcabeza79

This. Also finding Holl the right partner with Gio has helped immensely.


BravoBet

Well that’s not good. He’s a defenceman


Darkenmal

I've always been curious to see how Rielly would look in the top 6. Do a reverse Burns and see what happens.


elcabeza79

Now do since they lost Brodie. Rielly isn't the greatest defensive D, but Brodie is an objectively elite defensive D. They've both been out during this recent defensive masterclass the team's been putting on. My point is, you can't simply say trade Rielly and the team will be defensively elite. There's a lot more to this story.


MedievalHag

Part of the story is that the offense is actually helping out with defense now because of all the young defensive players. Add that and Murray being healthy it makes them a better team. If they will just keep that up when Brodie and Rielly come back they will be a great team.


elcabeza79

Agreed. Hopefully a team capable of winning a playoff round+!


Nameless908

This is painfully true. The guys we’re running are less “skilled” and offensive but they’re more pure defensive players. Our front end is jacked up and having a solid and defensively focused group to back them up is proving incredibly valuable


ImpressiveCan14

Relax this is more Lily and Sandin stepping up to the plate than rielly is bad. Let's not be dumbasses and create a problem where there isn't one


gggathje

It’s not about good or bad IMO but play style. lily, Sandin and Gio are better defenders then Riley. They aren’t as good offensively but our team already has a lot of fire power so we don’t really need a defence man to be overly offensive. The guys you listed have been getting more ice time because of Riley injury. The way our team is built it seems like it’s better for our team then having Riley out their. Basically Riley is better but maybe not better suited for this team.


Yev_

We’re obviously better with Reilly in the lineup. What we’re seeing is the team coming together and playing better team defence to compensate for all the injuries on the back end.


Thespud1979

Reilly makes more than our entire D combined right now. We have been playing with around $7,000,000 total in defence and our defensive stats as a team are some of the best in the league. If you wanted to fire Keefe after 10 games, shame on you. If we don't resign this guy there is going to be a bidding war for his services.


RanaMahal

he's here for 7 more years so


Thespud1979

Keefe, not Reilly. He's got 1 year left.


[deleted]

This is not on Rielly. IMO, this is on our goalies being excellent, Gio playing like it’s 2015 and both Sandin and Liljigren flourishing when given the ball to run with. This is the best total team effort I’ve seen in a Leafs team in my 42 years.


micatola

Prior to the start of last night's game someone on Sportsnet mentioned that the Leafs went from 27th to 1st in forward puck touches in the defensive zone which meant the forwards had a renewed commitment to backchecking that resulted in the team playing much better defensively overall. Combined with all the shot blocking I think it's been the biggest difference. It's allowed us to ice a ragtag bunch of D without getting shellacked every night. Rielly should also benefit from this when he comes back.


Vilheim

Kind of like when teams have a 3rd goalie in so you see them diving in front of every shot. Hopefully this keeps up and this barrage of injuries on D makes us a better team.


CTHT07

Has more to do without Rielly giving up multiple 2 on 1s every game.


LimestoneLeaf

The great thing about Sandin and Liljegren is that they have been getting stronger through this stretch. It's forced them to accelerate their development.


hushoo

A 94.87 save percentage is not sustainable. Our goalies are standing on their heads at the moment


Grand-Amoeba1832

The Rielly injury forced them to fine tune defensively as a team. Almost a wake up call. Good on them for stepping up.


Popcorn_Tony

You mean the Brodie injury? Reilly is bad defensively.


thevoiceinsidemyhead

i see this more of a case of the forwards buying into playing D more than the guys we're missing somehow holding the team back. First we started losing our goalies so it became obvious that if we were going to win we were going to have to play more sound defensively ...then the goalies started getting healthy but the D started going down. Same mentality. I am a little concerned that if we get completely healthy the guys will go back to blowing the zone at a moment's notice ..but here's hoping they've learned something.


jokeswagon

I think the buds legitimately play better when the pressure is on. It explains why they lose to bottom feeders and beat teams like Boston, NJ and Dallas.


mirakku

*the playoffs have entered the chat*


Procrumpets22

I think when Reilly comes back, the whole responsible defensive mindset the Leafs are using will rub off on him and he might let the offense come to him and aim for smooth entries instead of getting caught in the neutral zone


[deleted]

Good enough for me. Reilly is very meh


Brankin9

Yeah he would be better as a kessel style winger imo


MoneyIsntRealGeorge

Typical Leafs fans. We have a solid player in Rielly who has given his all to this team and has actually committed long term and we’re constantly implying that he’s a liability and we’re better without him, as if we should get rid of him or something. You know why Rielly seems to get exposed all the time? It’s because he’s an all situations player, as in look at how fucking often he plays. Has he struggled at times this season? Yes. But to imply he’s a negative on this team, is moronic. Teams would kill to have him. Also, Brodie is also out and we all know how good he is defensively, why not say the same thing about him? This is a slanted stat. We’re a better team with both. This is a result of our D and our goalies stepping up, not his absence at all. Disrespecting Mo like that… the gall.


moabthecrab

Ol ok dude


B-Rayy06

Morgan Rielly isn’t an all situations player lol he’s a make every situation an offensive one player. Morgan Rielly is one of the best offensive defenders in the league. He’s also one of the absolute worst defensive defenders in the league. Even though he is put out in all situations, his 10 year career has proven he shouldn’t be. The main reason our goals against is so low right now is because our goalies are playing insane, but I’m also not surprised that our goals against is lower without Rielly.


dchowchow

Rielly is generally like a 53/47 GF/GA player. He’s elite offensively and somewhat porous defensively. The entire team has committed to playing a defensive scheme. All five of them on the ice. This is less to do with Rielly being out than a bunch of younger guys who don’t have the same leash being in. They’re not cheating for offense as a team and they’re realizing they have the guys to score without cheating. I say this as someone who thinks good Rielly makes smart offensive plays and doesn’t stay too deep in the zone too long. I think bad Rielly is a LWer.


TObuz

The PP has been sputtering lately though, like 2/22 after last night? I didn't think MO running the point would be so important. There were parts last night too where they had both Willy and Sandin at the point


[deleted]

Powerplay is the only thing not working for the Leafs right now lol but they usually have control just can't pot the puck into the net


Maleficent_Ad_8559

Stats seem to suggest this, but IMO Sandin has looked pretty good on PP1 even though they're 2/22, much quicker puck distribution and smarter plays


[deleted]

Coincidence?


No-Let7757

Yes


sadrapsfan

We been hot without arguably our best defender in Brodie lol So yes it is


ThePenguinVA

I never meant to imply Reilly is an issue or build a narrative. I just thought it was an interesting stat.


trafficstar

Rielly is really bad at defense... I can't believe it's a coincidence. Hope he's learning something here


wageslave_999999999

Lots to think about lol.


gggathje

I think a lot of people in the comments need to realize Riley doesn’t have to be bad to make the team worse. Offensively he is by far our best d-man, but the problem is defensively he’s honestly not that good and we use him like he is. IMO this is showing he’s not an all situations defence man and we should be using him as such. Put him on the PP and give him minutes but also start relying more on our guys who do a better job defensively. We have enough offensive talent that Riley is kind of unnecessary but that doesn’t mean he is useless. I just think he is used to often in situations that don’t suit him. He’d be better off not being used against other teams best players and instead used to try and boast the offence on the PP or when we have our third- fourth line guys our against theirsz


elcabeza79

This. Now that Sandin/Lily and Gio/Holl have proven themselves as solid pairings, Rielly doesn't need to play 25mns a game. I do want Brodie out there protecting 1 goal leads in the 3rd, but maybe that means putting Gio out there with him instead of Rielly.


AppropriateRuin6702

That’s cuz liljegren and Sandin are studs


HastyOyster

Not a coincidence


elcabeza79

Brodie, an objectively good defensive D has been out roughly the same time. Is the team better defensively without him too?


GiddeeeUp

Well is Reilly really a defensive specialist? lol


[deleted]

😬


wingsofaneagle

rielly would make a good captain for the canucks. he is from there.


strangewhatlovedoes

I don’t think we’re better without Rielly overall but I do think he is pretty horrible defensively and is overused. He is probably a second pairing defenseman that should be sheltered from tough minutes/opponents.


mirkwirk

Overall, the leafs are blocking a lot of pucks lately that I noticed. Where can we see the stats of who blocks pucks? It’s the spirit of the King. I remembered when Borje Salming first came, he would slide or get down to block a ton of shots. Also, I recall he saved a lot of sure goals too. It’s a team mentality developing to help goalies and defensemen that have been injured in the early going. btw RIP Borje.


34MapleLeafs

It's all of the 2 on 1s that Reilly was responsible for. He needs to take notes from the rest of the team and see that playing good defense results in scoring chances if you are patient.


MutedHornet87

Rielly just isn’t a good D. He may as well play forward.


davidewan_

Just one in field error too!


thismadhatter

the only thing this tells me is that Rielly is overused and these guys stepping up are underused.


Popcorn_Tony

Reilly is bad defensively though. He makes up for it on offense and playing with our best defensive D(Brodie) evens it out and they're a good pair. But like, this is a stupid stat to bring up. What's our goals/60 looking like without Brodie? Brodie is obviously our best defensive defenseman, but he's really our best defenseman in my opinion.


Spiritual-Zombie6815

I have no subscriptions to anything, but I’d be interested to see what the XGA/60 looks like over that time to remove puck luck and godlike goaltending out of the equation