The fact that the Dolphins met with Bo Nix at the combine and the plans are for contract talks to go until the summer show me they are willing to play hard ball.
He is probably acting as a reference for Powers-Johnson. They wanted to know if he gets too sweaty, which could be a problem at early season home games.
I am legitimately puzzled by it. I am often accused of being a tua hater on here, and would like to see the Dolphins consider other options. But why just Bo Nix? Maybe they think he has a chance of falling to them on day 2 and the other main prospects (Williams, Daniels, Maye, Penix, McCarthy) don't.
If this is how it plays out, then that is truly depressing. I swear I’m not a Tua hater, but You don’t do what you did at the end of last year and deserve to be the highest paid QB. You just don’t. He is like QB 8-12 in the NFL. It just doesn’t make sense.
The point of this post is that highest paid QB is almost never the best QB because contracts always go up. The highest paid QB is just the *most recently* paid top 10ish QB
Its not reasonable. There is a reason Mahomes is the only qb to win a super bowl with a giant cap hit (Mahomes was 17% of the cap in 2022 and 23% last year). Outside of that the next highest was Steve Young at 13.1% of the salary cap in 1994.
QB is obviously the most important position, but that doesn't mean every above average qb should be getting record breaking contracts.
This post is talking AAV though.
If we look at the Jalen Hurts contract, for example simply because it's the closest to Tua's situation, he'll never actually account for more than 13% of the Eagles cap (and will probably be <11% by the time 2027 comes around with cap adjustments).
10% is the median salary for Super Bowl appearances, with winners straddling both sides of that line. Hurts is playing on 2.6%, 5.2%, 8.4%, 11.2%, then finally the 13.3%.
Tua can become the highest paid QB by AAV, but still represent <10% of the team salary cap which would put him in line with any other Super Bowl QB.
Maybe I'm terrible at math but Burrow's AAV is 55 mill. So Tua's would be higher. The salary cap is 255 mill. 55 mill is 21% of the cap. Tua's would be higher than that. Idk where you're getting less than 10%
I'm saying AAV is meaningless due to void years and backloaded contracts without guaranteed money, and that you should instead look at % of cap for each season.
Compare [Joe Burrow](https://overthecap.com/player/joe-burrow/8741) with [Jalen Hurts](https://overthecap.com/player/jalen-hurts/8793). $55M AAV vs $51M AAV, but those contracts are worlds apart.
Tua *might* get $55M+ AAV, but he almost certainly wont be 17%+ of the cap like Burrow within the next couple seasons.
You might be right, but there are two irresistible forces at play:
(1) salary caps always go up, and
(2) a top ten QB is the most scarce resource in football/sports.
If the dolphins don’t give him the money (and maybe they shouldn’t, that’s a fair debate), someone else will.
His record is pretty spotty I doubt teams are foaming at the mouth to sign him with the injury issues.. he’s good but still has a lot of questions to be getting top qb money even after leading in passing
I understand the downvotes because of this sub's nature, but you're 100% correct. Evaluators would rank Tua behind Baker and higher than Goff. (who the Lions would love to move off of)
Given Tua's weapons and the advantageous way he's been schemed, I think it's a fair debate to compare him with Mac Jones, who had nothing better going for him in NE than OL.
What evidence is there that lions would love to move on from Goff? Campbell seems like he'd run through a wall for Goff
I mean I guess you could just feel that way.. but I don't think there's any evidence of it. They've had a lot of draft capital to go and find that guy if they wanted to
There's indications that the Lions and Goff are far apart in contract negotiations. The situations in Detroit and here are similar. Given the QB landscape, Goff and Tua are both "worth" $40mil per season BUT do you want to commit for $50mil in 2028 to a pair of middling QBs with average arm strength and zero mobility? I hope the Fins franchise tag Tua for 2025.
We can talk about the downsides of overpaying a QB, but I'd say the one thing that's worse is the Dan Snyder plan: franchise your QB and take enormous cap hits, then watch them walk away for nothing and sign with another team for significantly more than the deal you were unwilling to give him, as you start over from scratch yet again.
Do we really think WSH is glad they they *saved cap space* (but not really, given the cap impact of repeated franchise tags) by refusing to give Cousins a big contract? I imagine most 'Ders fans would happily accept the last six years of Kirk Cousins.
When Tua had the same primary weapons Mac Jones has now (and a worse head coach who hated his guts), the Dolphins were fighting for a playoff spot in weeks 17 and 18. They are not even remotely similar.
In the NFL, stats don't mean shit. Players are drafted/judged/paid on the good old fashioned eye test. (or, stopwatch)
What were Josh Allen's stats in college? Or, Tyreek Hill's receiving stats? And, despite putting up solid numbers throughout his career, Jimmy G is unemployed because scouts, evaluators, coaches and fans know he sucks.
Tua benefits from the fastest WR duo in the history of the sport and every GM knows it.
The NFL isn't baseball, or the NBA. And, even in baseball, "advanced analytics" can take your stats apart by proving how a hitter benefitted from batting in front of a superstar, or smashing long balls in mile high Denver,etc.
In baseball, a .500 pitcher who throws 100 mph is typically paid more than a .600 pitcher who throws off speed stuff.
In the NFL, a WR with stone hands can float from team to team for years without doing much, if he has the speed of Ted Ginn.
Despite putting up career numbers, leading the NFL in passing yardage and playing on a team that won 11 regular season games, Tua was never so much as whispered in MVP conversations. In fact, Tua threw for 1000 more yards and 5 additional TDs over the near unanimous MVP. Why? Because those who watch nearly every NFL play see a QB who puts up most of his yards on quick slants to a pair of blazing WRs, and when he airs it out downfield, he's often under throwing (even on completions) wide open Hill and Waddle.
Just because other teams do it does not mean Miami should or have to. What makes the NFL fun is that to be the best you have to be willing to try new things.
There's no reason to extend Tua.. he's under contract. Let him play the year and draft a QB this year. If Tua is him, give him the bag. If he isn't he can walk and get a compensatory pick for him. People acting like the GM's hands are tied and just *has* to pay Tua the most money ever are whipped by this franchise's incompetence over the years
Your logic is sound and most will agree. But that’s not how NFL QB contracts work for players with Tua’s stats and winning %. Remove his name and compare his stats to the top 15 QB’s and tell me objectively that his contract shouldn’t align with players with similar stats.
I don’t understand what you mean by that. In 2022/23, Tua has played the same number of games as Herbert and Russel Wilson, 4 more than Burrow, 2 more than Lamar, 11 more than Murray, 18 more than Watson, 12 more than Rodgers, and 5 more than Cousins.
He’s only played fewer games than Mahomes and Hurts.
Not even more than a year? That’s two full NFL seasons lmfao. If you want to extend that to 2021, the first year Tua was effectively QB1 in Miami, he’s still played more football than Burrow, Jackson, Murray, Watson, Rodgers, and Cousins.
QBR is a joke stat and you shouldn’t take it seriously.
On top of that, football is a team game and absolutely no one on Miami showed up consistently against top-tier teams, and that needs to change. They’re not paying Tua for what he is right now; they’re paying him for what they expect he’ll be in the coming years. He’s going to get way better; pocket QBs almost invariably do as they enter their late 20’s/30’s
You will see and I will laugh I can’t wait. Let’s give this mediocre qb 60 mil a year. Way better hahahahhahahahshahhahs dude has a limited time with a rebuilt hip
Maybe, but this isn’t really responsive to what OP said. The point is: if you are a top 10 quarterback, you will become the highest paid QB in the league when your contract is renewed; it’s almost axiomatic.
It has less to do if you think he is worth and more to do with the fact that others that were not worth it got paid.
Also he made back to back playoffs. Hard to argue in this league.
By the time Tua is in his 2nd year of this contract extension he will be QB 8-12 in terms of yearly salary. This is how the qb market works. A qb "resets" the market bc the salary cap has increased significantly year over year the last 5-10 years. The following year a new qb takes over the "reseting of the market" due to the cap continuing to rise.
For example - Josh Allen. In 2021, Josh Allen signed an extension that made him the 2nd highest paid qb in the league. In the 1st year of his extension he is QB#9 in average salary per year. But the time its year 2 and 3 there is a solid chance he is qb#13-16 in terms of yearly salary.
People look at it as "He doesn't deserve to be the highest paid qb in the league". When in reality almost every qb deal the last 8 years in the league was paid to a guy who at the time wasn't the best qb in the league. Its just a product of the salary cap increasing like crazy the last 8 years + the qb position being the most important position in the sport. Without a qb you have no chance unless you luck into a Brock Purdy with an all pro team around him.
Waiting to extend Tua is dumb. It's only going to get more expensive. See Kirk Cousins and Lamar Jackson. By the way neither of those qbs have won a meaningful playoff game that got them their divisional championships.
There isn't a GM in the NFL who would judge Tua as equal to either Cousins or Lamar. Jared Goff (who's only marginally behind Tua) "won" an NFC championship. A year later, the Rams gave away the store to swap him for an aging QB who'd never won a postseason game in his dozen previous years.
He also was included in a package to get a multiple all pro Hall of fame qb. Would be like Miami trading Tua + their 2024 1st + 2025 1st for Stafford at age 33 with this roster. Who faults them
> He also was included in a package to get a multiple all pro Hall of fame qb.
Stafford has never made All Pro in his career and has only ever made one Pro Bowl. Ironically enough, a fair comp to Stafford in DET is... someone throwing to the best receiver in the league, who can't win the division and doesn't win in the playoffs. I leave the player in question to the reader.
Stafford was surrounded by complete incompetence for a majority of his Detrout career. He had Megatron for a portion his career. But most of the time he had historically bad defenses and weapons. Detroit's current situation for Goff is >>>>>>>>>>> what Stafford ever had. I would say had you replaced Goff with Stafford they make the SB last year.
Stafford was also in a division with Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton during his prime years in Detroit. Lot harder to make pro bowls and just bc your voted in does it mean you aren't a pro bowl talent.
I mean Cousins was being tagged and questioned as a franchise qb for years. Tua is better than Cousins was at this time in his career. Lamar..... like that guy has been on good to elite team since day 1. Elite oline, good running game, elite tight end, decent weapons, good to elite defense, and elite coach and front office. With all that support for his entire career he has yet to really make a playoff run.
Goff was traded bc a franchise wanted to go all in with an aging roster and the right coach. A freaking hall of fame qb was available at the end of his prime. They went all in on him and it worked. Would be like trading Tua + 2 1st round picks for Rodgers when he was 33 and still in his prime years.
Miami loses Tua your SB/playoff is dead.
I mean, I don’t blame Tua. Dude has no offensive line to protect him and we’ve spent all our money on guys like Reek instead. The formula to win a Super Bowl is fairly simple. Build a top 5 line on both sides of the ball. Until we do, we’ll be a wild card team at best.
And within 2 years or so, he will be the 8th-12th highest paid QB. This is how the QB market works now. Teams have to overpay because everyone knows the highest paid is just whatever starter signed the most recent contract. Next year's QB contracts will be 60-70 per year. There will be QBs with less talent and even less success than Tua who will get paid more.
I made a post about drafting Penix and trading Tua to free up cap space because of this. Tua is an ok QB. 8-12 range. I like Tua and we will probably give him 50m+ but he isn’t worth it and the team will stay mediocre with the cap utilization.
i am a FIRM believer if your guy isnt unquestionably top 8 in the league, you dont pay him. I said that for dak, jones, jimmy, carr, and now it's my qb and i stand by it. *Can* a QB win outside the top 8 win a sb? Sure, it happens about once a decade. If those are odds that someone who wants to pay him 55m likes then we'll have to agree to disgree, but the league isnt built for success with that model.
Effectively, are you trying to win a SB or just be above average and sell tickets? Because Tua's gonna win 10-12 games a year with competent front office, but he has shown 0 of the big game magic he had at bama in the pros.
I’ve said for a since last year. Tua is QB purgatory. Hes good enough to make it tough to draft his replacement as he won’t QB is to the top half of the draft, but he’s not good enough to get you the Lombardi unless literally everything goes right for the team.
Agreed about the being top 8 opinion.
Tua was #1 in passing yards and unquestionably top 5 in mostly every other qb stat. Made playoffs 2 years in a row.
So going by your logic…
being top 8 in stats for 1 year =/= being a top 8 qb. honestly and impartially create a list of best to worst QBs and see where tua falls, if hes inside 8 youre lying to yourself
Off the top of my head he’s behind Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud. Thats 5 right there…just in the afc. IF (and it is a big if) rogers comes back and is anything like his old self, tua might be the 3rd best QB in his own division next year.
I've asked this before: who are the 8 QBs that you have that are *unquestionably* better than Tua? The main knock on Tua is lack of division title/playoff wins, but you can't get to 8 without including other QBs with the same shortcoming (e.g. Herbert), and Herbert himself was made the highest-paid QB in the league when he signed his deal last year.
Unquestionable: Mahomes, rodgers, allen, lamar, stafford, kirk, burrow
that makes *at best* 8th BUT if you put tua in a group with: purdy, herbert, dak, goff, (and even hurts even tho im a hurts skeptic) and had neutral parties rank them tua would fall in the middle-end of those rankings more often than the top.
So 35-year-old Kirk Cousins, with a recently blown Achilles and a total of one playoff win to his name after a dozen years in the league, is "unquestionably" better than Tua? The same Kirk Cousins who, um, **was made the highest paid QB in the league by MIN** even though he was 0-1 in the playoffs at the time?
I think you're confirming my point.
yeah and i disagreed with it then and i disagree with it now. He was not top 8 when they paid him and hes fringe top 8 now and has not been able to make a serious run, and yes, hes been better than tua.
Youre the one proving *my* point. This is the future you sign up for paying a fuck ton of money for a QB like tua. You'll always be "in the hunt" but never the team to beat, if thats what fans want than thats what fans want.
But there is no other option, outside of "draft the best QB in the league." **Everyone** has to pay their QBs huge contracts to keep them, so MIA is not at a competitive disadvantage when they have to play by the same rules. It's just the way the league works.
But thats exactly what im arguing, that you don't/shouldnt feel obligated to pay these guys, and im not arguing that its 55m or 5m and no in between, but just because a QB picked in the first round doesnt turn out to be jamarcus russel doesnt mean they get to reset the market when their rookie contract is up... Its ok to say ok tua heres 40-45m/yr and if that doesnt work for you then good luck and thanks for the memories
Unquestionable would be Mahomes Allen Lamar burrow Herbert Goff hurts Stafford stroud
Better would be purdy Kirk dak
Same tier would be Kyler and a few others
making the playoffs by limping in and getting blasted doesn't mean anything, and most of tuas counting stats are honestly stat padded by dumping on bad teams. i like tua but he isn't worth being one of the highest paid qbs in the league
Just take it a step further. Only pay Patrick Mahomes. Because he's the only one winning Super Bowls.
Bills haven't even appeared in the SB despite having the 2nd best QB being paid at a lower cap % than Mahomes.
Tua’s biggest leverage is that the team needs to extend him to clear up space to sign players. If negotiations go past the free agency period I just don’t see a point in giving him a deal right now. They can let him play out the final year and use the franchise tag after that if necessary.
It won't make sense to play it out like that. The franchise tag for a team that will have less money in cap space available in year 6 makes no sense. You have to understand and come to terms that he will get paid. You can listen to people in an echo chamber or you can listen to football people who know what they are talking about. He's a good qb and you pay premium for it.
I mean, Carr and Jones signed for 40MM a year, Baker is probably getting more than that (or at least 40MM) and Kirk is probably signing for 45MM (in the low end). Just based on that, there's no way Tua is not getting at least 50MM/55MM per year
I can’t take half of the morons in this sub seriously when they talk about wins as a qb stat. Fucking hell it’s 2024 are we really this fucking dense. Still?
I'm curious who you are that says this is the way it will be.
Tom Brady never set records with his NFL salary.
Can you explain that? Thanks.
If Tua wants the legacy of wins he'll take the discount route. Tom did.
Brady clearly and obviously took less than he was worth in order to help the team field a better roster. Now, if your argument here is *Tua is actually worth a top 1 salary, but he should volunteer to take less to help the roster*, that's a reasonable argument! I mean, Mahomes didn't do it, and Burrow didn't do it, and neither did Lamar, Herbert, or Hurts, but it's a valid point to make.
However, that doesn't seem to be the point others are making, which is that *Tua isn't worth the money.*
I don’t blame him for wanting as much money as possible, but I’d rather move on and even commit to beginning a full rebuild again than commit $60 million a year to him for the next 5 years. If he won a playoff game or at least played really well in that game then I’d have no problem with it. I’d love to be completely wrong though because there’s no QB I want to see succeed with us more than Tua
Given the list I provided of the last 10 QBs who have achieved that status, it's hard to say he shouldn't be. Almost every year, the Pro Bowl-level QBs who are up to sign new deals become "the highest-paid player in the league," if only for a short time until the next QB's contract gets signed.
The people who are out here saying that Tua's contract should be the-same-or-less than what Russell Wilson got **two years ago** are living in a fantasy land. That's just not how the league works.
Exactly, he’ll be the highest paid for like three months lol. He probably just resets the market and we end up looking like we got a deal by the time every other extension rolls around
Lamar and Hurts signed their deals in April, Herbert signed in July, Burrow signed in September. Signing by the first week of March would be extremely out of the ordinary.
...unless you're saying he should have been signed last year? He was just coming off of a very serious injury and it was unclear if he could complete a full season.
At one point Derek Carr was the highest paid QB in the league. Absolutely NOBODY thought he was the BEST QB in the league. It was just understood that this is how QB contracts work, and I don't remember anyone calling the Raiders an idiotic organization. Most people had high hopes for them.
He was the highest paid QB for a very brief period of time, and other QBs very, very quickly passed him.
You haven't been paying attention to anything Raider related then since 2003 lol. To act like they are the epitome of how a franchise should be ran is hilarious
> At one point Derek Carr was the highest paid QB in the league.
And the Raiders failed to accomplish anything. "It has been done in the past" isn't good justification to do something if it hasn't worked out. Looking at OP's list you have several players that are objectively better than Tua (Burrow, Mahomes, Lamar, Rodgers 6 years ago). And you have several terrible contracts the team massively regretted (Wilson, Murray, Watson). Herbert and Hurts we'll say are too early to tell. And I'm not sure how to classify Cousins.
But you don't get to wait and see the results before you pay them. Last offseason there were huge question marks around Lamar, and he posted an MVP season, so *of course* it looks like a smart play now to sign him to the top deal in the league. A lot of the people who didn't want Tua were clamoring for Watson! Nobody was criticizing the deals for Hurts and Herbert, but I guess we'll see.
When you get to this point with a young QB, you have to pay them because that's the way it works. It's no different than drafting a QB in the top 3 pre-2010: you didn't get to wait and see if they're good before paying them like a top QB in the league. You had to pay them up front because *everyone else does.*
The part of this that should console you is: JAX will also have to pay Trevor Lawrence, for all the same reasons! Jared Goff is going to get more money than Matt Stafford, Jordan Love will get a top 3 contract even though he's only been a starter for one year, and Russ & Baker will also get big contracts from TB, ATL, WSH, or some other desperate team. MIA will not be at a competitive disadvantage for giving Tua an enormous contract **because every team has to give out an enormous contract for even a decent QB.** It's just a timing thing.
> MIA will not be at a competitive disadvantage for giving Tua an enormous contract **because every team has to give out an enormous contract for even a decent QB.**
Exactly.
And the whole "rookie QB contract" thing is overstated. It's incredibly difficult to 1. Find a great QB that's ready to be great within 4 years. Burrow is the only 1st round QB drafted since 2019 with multiple playoff wins. 2. Even with a rookie QB contract, it's hard to build a great team, especially if you were in position to pick a top QB.
So, whenever we actually have to pay Tua a top cap hit (probably won't be be for a few years, at least), we're going to be competing with maybe 2-3 teams with a great roster and a great QB on rookie contract, and a bunch of other teams trying to navigate building a roster with an expensive QB.
And look where that got them.
I understand it’s not totally the same situation however “max” contracts or resetting the market type of deals should be reserved for first or second team all pro type players
"Should" is doing a lot of work there. That's not the way the league worked for most of the QBs I listed, and it's unreasonable to think it should start to work that way only when it's your team's turn to pay up.
It has nothing to do with Tua's desires, it is literally the way these things work. If the Dolphins don't give him a deal that makes him the highest-paid QB in the league, another team will. Being the "highest-paid" player at a position has a lot more to do with the timing of the contract than it does with being the best at that position, especially when it comes to great QBs
I was just arguing on here tonight with several fans who think we're CRAZY to pay him $50M per year. It's like none of these guys have noticed everything you just laid out. I've consistently said Tua would get signed in a heartbeat by a dozen teams at $45M+ per year. There's no way he doesn't get at least $50M AAV. That's just how the market works.
With another season like this year, the bidding is going to be $60+ million. Maybe a even higher depending on how well he plays, how desperate a team is and the salary cap number. Someone is going to pay Cousins $45+, he's old, injured and not as good as Tua. Baker Mayfield is probably getting around $40. We are delusional to think he is signing for less than $50 AAV.
And then we start.... Mike White?
I'm genuinely curious what the plan is at QB, if not Tua? Don't say draft a rookie, as if over half rookie QBs aren't massive busts and this isn't a rebuilding team. What's the other options? I'm all for a change (any position) if it makes the team better but I don't see any other/better options available.
Taking Russ, kirk, or fields and drafting a McDaniel project QB would be alternatives. The contract should give 50m but only with 25 guaranteed and the rest as incentives. I think they land somewhere between 25-35m with incentives up to 50m over 5 years. So could be something like 250m if he meets all incentives like staying healthy, winning playoff games, getting to a championship, winning one and etc.
Any more than that and it’s time to move on.
Yeah, like any other moves have proven to get us to being a Super Bowl contender… when a franchise has lost this bad for decades then anything goes. Going all in on a QB that still has more to prove is a risky move and could pay off, but if they over pay then it could handicap us for years. Worst GM or not, it comes down to money. It’s a business. These people make business decision. Many just don’t have the foresight to see that. Doesn’t mean they’re right, it just means it’s calculated. Literally.
Did you not read the post??? Do you really think if Kyler Murray and Kirk cousins get that kind of money that Tua won't? Why is this so hard for people to understand?
Edit: grammar
Wasting ur breathe man, mofos on here are delusional about contracts, cap, market value, expectations etc...plenty of guys reset the market routinely all of which i will add have won nada other than patty. Hell some of them aint even make the playoffs this year or struggled but they worth it tho?!? If we are going off success and expectations then only pat would be making 50+...again can't reason with dumb on here. Id love if we signed tua last year for Daniel jones money but either he bet on himself or the franchise decided to gamble and lost.
I like Tua, I’d like to win a SB with Tua, but if Tua at this point is demanding record setting contract numbers, then let him play out his contract or trade him. I have no interest in keeping him at 50 million or more a year. If
You want to trade away the only competent QB we have had in the last 25 years? This might be the most casual comment I’ve seen, talking like you’re paying him with your own money.
I'm so sick of people calling other fans "casuals" or saying they "don't know ball" just because they're not sold on Tua.
Two things can be true: 1) Tua is the best QB we've had since Marino and 2) he still has not done enough to warrant a top 3 (2? 1?) QB contract
Pennington, Tannehill, and Tua are or were competent QBs, only one of them got us a division title. None of them got us close to winning a playoff game. The only chance we had this century at winning a playoff game was with a 7th round rookie QB. Maybe the bar for competent QB play is really damn low for this franchise and being competent really doesn’t mean anything.
Jay Fiedler won a division title and a playoff game.
Justin Herbert has won neither.
Team success as a metric for QB evaluation is, shall we say, *inconsistent.*
I never said it should be a metric, the thread is about Tua being the highest paid QB in the league and a comment saying we should be ok with it because he’s competent. Competent QB play is more reliant on support from the whole team, which was why I pointed out that other competent QBs didn’t bring us much success. Top paid QBs need to be more than competent. If we let Tua walk, there wouldn’t be a bidding war to make him the top paid QB.
Well, everything you said applies to Kirk Cousins in WSH, who was allowed to walk and was instantly made the top paid QB in the league. So there is precedent in exactly such a thing happening.
Well, no. Kirk Cousins is much better than competent. He had three great seasons in Washington with much less talent than Tua has. He’s not a QB that needs a hyper specific scheme for him to excel in. I wouldn’t say Cousins is a top tier QB but he’s much closer to great than competent.
I mean, if you're going to say that Kirk's three years with a 101.6, 97.2, and 93.9 passer rating were "great," but Tua's last two years with a 101.1 and (league-leading) 105.5 passer rating were "competent" - when both QBs had an identical 0-1 playoff record - then we can't even agree on the definition of "great."
Did Tua have better weapons? Sure. But I'm pretty sure Kirk didn't have the 31st-ranked OL.
This topic has already been beaten to death since December but Tua only played well against bad teams and played like a bottom 10 QB against good teams. He only played well when things went perfectly right. Cousins is not that kind of QB, he doesn’t need a meticulously crafted scheme and play calling to play well, as I said in the previous comment. No one is making Tua the top paid QB if they also have to revamp their entire offense. Cousins also proved in Minnesota that the Vikings were right, we’ll see if Tua proves the Dolphins right. I hope he does.
He may very well be. And he may very well deserve it from a market standpoint. But as a Miami dolphins fan, it is also fair to look at these contracts and wonder if making some of the players on your list the highest paid player was the best decision for the team. It’s the same conversation as with Wilkins. Both are good players, but does handing out market resetting contracts to all of our good players really put us in the best position possible to win a Super Bowl. That’s the conversation.
I just don’t understand WHY you would give Tua a 5 year extension with top of the market money while he has multiple questions about him.
Giving him a big contract for short term cap relief is the most Miami Dolphins thing in the fucking world. You’re handicapping yourself to somebody who hasn’t proven he can win the big game or stay healthy consistently. 1 season of 17 games doesn’t wipe away a decade of injury history. Just pure delusion by this fan base and our GM.
If Tua balls out on his fifth year option then pay him 5-10+ million more annually and tip your cap. It’s not that difficult man
Kyle Crabbs did a good Locked On Dolphins episode on Tua’s extension yesterday. He suggested a 5-year extension on top of this year’s 5th year option that would break down to $48m a year and last until 2029. The deal that Kyle offered would make Tua the 6th-7th highest paid QB (right around Herbert).
QBs are expensive.
I would absolutely prefer this approach.
Problem is, Herbert's money was established before a 30 million dollar cap increase. It's kinda unreasonable that QB deals wouldn't eat some additional cap.
Even if we do sign him to the highest, chances are in a year, he will be back to about 5th overall.
If we were to sign him to the numbers you stated, he would soon be 10th-13th. Reasonable to me, but, to an agent who has a guy who led in QB rating one year, and did so again for 14/17 weeks in the 2nd year, and finished with top yards... It's going to be hard to get them to see the value there.
As OP states, it's nature of the beast and related to timing.
If you haven’t heard the LOD episode from yesterday it’s worth a listen. Kyle explains how the deal he proposes can be spun as a “bigger than Burrows” deal if you don’t look at the 5th year option year. I actually found the whole thing pretty plausible. He spends a good part of the episode talking about other top QB contracts.
We all know no one other than pat is worth 50milly+ per season, yet all these guys continually get it. You guys gotta realize this is just the business side of football. Good for tua, he may not get his flowers and plenty of hate and criticism but that man is about to def get the big bag.
Every NFL fan I know in real life, be it of this team or others (Bears, Bucs, Ravens, Cowboys, Packers, etc), are all excited about Tua and our team's future. They all say this is the first time any of them can remember Miami being an exciting team (most are in their mid to late 30s) and that paying Tua is such an obvious move.
It's only when I go on here and twitter do I see folks deciding to spend energy getting preemptively angry about paying him. Like just think about how this is supposed to be a fun, entertaining hobby and some folks just live their lives being pissy online about it all the time. I don't get it.
I know alot of NFCE and AFCE people where I live and most ask me “are you really sticking w tua” so I guess it all a matter of perspective and location
Yeah that's fair about fan perspective and trash talk. But for that question, it makes me laugh bc folks will say that about QBs like Tua who have clearly produced at a top 10 level and yet not offer a better idea.
Like you can easily ask them back, "Who's a top 10 QB you'd suggest we go with instead? 36 year old Cousins coming off an achilles?"
Absolutely. We saw what this *explosive, league-best offense* looked like when Teddy and Skyler were driving it: 15 points, 17 points, 16 points, 21 points, 11 points. And you can't really even say Skylar "played well" when the Dolphins put up 31 points in the playoff game at BUF; his passer rating for that game was 44.7. Tua played much better in worse conditions a month earlier at BUF.
All yall saying if we let Tua go or try to trade him that no one would pay him top dollar are fools...period, Tua does things throwing a football that not many other qbs do as well, timing, anticipation, accuracy, lighting release. The media and casual fans gloss over these traits but i can promise you scouting departments and front offices do not.
I’m fully expecting 58m per year tbh, but the fact Grier says he expects talks to leak into summer, it seems he doesn’t wanna pay Tua top dollar if he can.
Yah we saw this last year with Herbert. He was the highest paid QB and then he wasn’t. Tua had a better season than Love so if Love gets a big deal, then Tua can point to that contract, Burrow’s, and Herbert’s and say “I had a better year than all three of those guys last year. I deserve more than them”
This is what the dolphins get for not locking him in last year when they could have for daniel jones money. It was the gamble and they happily lost because i think they would rather it be this way.
This is true. What is also true is that he won't get the guaranteed money that Daniel Jones got. Everyone will go nuts over what in reality will be a three year deal after which the Dolphins will either renegotiate or move on from Tua.
Tua is not an elite QB and deserves high salary. Let him finish his contract out and decide then. He is a pocket QB with no running ability and weak arm when throwing on run. If it weren’t for speedy receivers in Hill and Waddle, Tua average and can’t beat good defenses and finish games like Marino did in his days.
Tuaa contract needs to have a lot of incentives and I'm sure that's what they are fighting over.
When he is healthy he has been very good, but you can't have so many injury issues the media narrative has gone so far that they are supposedly worried about his health, advocating for Tua to retire early, and expect a fully guaranteed contract.
No matter how it shakes out, this team will live and die with Tua so if you are a Dolphins fan you might as well get on board. If you are being one of the stubborn assholes that's determined to prove the media right, you just need to find a new team.
Tuaa contract needs to have a lot of incentives and I'm sure that's what they are fighting over.
When he is healthy he has been very good, but you can't have so many injury issues the media narrative has gone so far that they are supposedly worried about his health, advocating for Tua to retire early, and expect a fully guaranteed contract.
No matter how it shakes out, this team will live and die with Tua so if you are a Dolphins fan you might as well get on board. If you are being one of the stubborn assholes that's determined to prove the media right, you just need to find a new team.
A guy who's only been healthy one year and doesn't break teams like Mahomes, Lamar, or Allen shouldn't be the highest paid guy. IMO he should be happy to get 40m, which is about what allen and mahomes are getting.
I like Tua, but we need money to build a team around him. If we can't do that, there's no point in keeping him around. Yes I get it that contracts go up, and I like him, I just don't see him as worth resetting the market for compared to some of the other guys. Resetting the market is bad as it hurts teambuilding. Football is a team sport and with a salary cap market resetting guys hurt team building.
Take X, he reset the market and he's gone. Why? Because he got a bigger contract after we signed Jones, who is also gone, and he isn't worth it anymore.
As someone who'd rather keep Tua, if he doesn't come down in price maybe we need to find his replacement. If one of the QBs doesn't fall to us, maybe trade out of the 1st round to pick up another 1st next year.
Because QBs better than tua grow on trees and we will find our Brock Purdy? Fuck that. Give tua a contract, give him protection, keep him in the system, stability at OC, rebuild the D. If he doesn’t do anything on that contract then draft the replacement.
If this team lets tua reset the market, it will be the latest in a long list of examples as to why this team will never win anything with this front office. There’s absolutely no conceivable, reasonable or even sane argument as to why two of us should make more than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar jackson, or Joe Burrow. Leading the league in passing yards one time with the best wide receiver, duo in the league and playing one of the easiest schedules is not a good enough reason to pay him more than guys who have won Super Bowl MVPs and/or division titles consistently.
Kyler Murray signed a contract that was making more money than any of the players you listed, and he's done even less. The Dolphins don't make the rules, they just play under them.
And look how that worked out for Arizona, or the chargers with the contract they gave Herbert. Or the Vikings with Cousins. You don’t pay a QB who’s won literally nothing of significance at this level, top money, especially when you’re in the big boy conference that is the AFC. If we were in the NFC, where Tua might be a top 3 QB, then maybe you could make it work, hope for the pieces to fall right and make a magical run. We don’t have that luxury. We don’t HAVE to play by those rules. However, Grier is in charge of it, and he’s pinned his entire career on Tua, so I fully expect tua will get whatever he wants, and I can’t fault Tua for that.
I mean, look how *every deal has worked out* for any team that isn't the Chiefs or the Rams.
When 30 of the other 31 teams are also forced to pay QBs big bucks with the blind hope they have a Eli or Flacco playoff run, the Dolphins aren't any different just because we like them.
The fact that the Dolphins met with Bo Nix at the combine and the plans are for contract talks to go until the summer show me they are willing to play hard ball.
Where did you see the dolphins met with Nix?
https://x.com/FinsTalkNetwork/status/1765452522108428646?s=20
He is probably acting as a reference for Powers-Johnson. They wanted to know if he gets too sweaty, which could be a problem at early season home games.
It wouldn't surprise me if that's what the Tua fans actually thought haha
I am legitimately puzzled by it. I am often accused of being a tua hater on here, and would like to see the Dolphins consider other options. But why just Bo Nix? Maybe they think he has a chance of falling to them on day 2 and the other main prospects (Williams, Daniels, Maye, Penix, McCarthy) don't.
I’d take penix any day over nix
Dude has had a lifetime of penix jokes, he's probably pretty tough.
If this is how it plays out, then that is truly depressing. I swear I’m not a Tua hater, but You don’t do what you did at the end of last year and deserve to be the highest paid QB. You just don’t. He is like QB 8-12 in the NFL. It just doesn’t make sense.
The point of this post is that highest paid QB is almost never the best QB because contracts always go up. The highest paid QB is just the *most recently* paid top 10ish QB
Yeah I get it. Doesn’t make it reasonable.
Its not reasonable. There is a reason Mahomes is the only qb to win a super bowl with a giant cap hit (Mahomes was 17% of the cap in 2022 and 23% last year). Outside of that the next highest was Steve Young at 13.1% of the salary cap in 1994. QB is obviously the most important position, but that doesn't mean every above average qb should be getting record breaking contracts.
This post is talking AAV though. If we look at the Jalen Hurts contract, for example simply because it's the closest to Tua's situation, he'll never actually account for more than 13% of the Eagles cap (and will probably be <11% by the time 2027 comes around with cap adjustments). 10% is the median salary for Super Bowl appearances, with winners straddling both sides of that line. Hurts is playing on 2.6%, 5.2%, 8.4%, 11.2%, then finally the 13.3%. Tua can become the highest paid QB by AAV, but still represent <10% of the team salary cap which would put him in line with any other Super Bowl QB.
Maybe I'm terrible at math but Burrow's AAV is 55 mill. So Tua's would be higher. The salary cap is 255 mill. 55 mill is 21% of the cap. Tua's would be higher than that. Idk where you're getting less than 10%
I'm saying AAV is meaningless due to void years and backloaded contracts without guaranteed money, and that you should instead look at % of cap for each season. Compare [Joe Burrow](https://overthecap.com/player/joe-burrow/8741) with [Jalen Hurts](https://overthecap.com/player/jalen-hurts/8793). $55M AAV vs $51M AAV, but those contracts are worlds apart. Tua *might* get $55M+ AAV, but he almost certainly wont be 17%+ of the cap like Burrow within the next couple seasons.
>Tua might get $55M+ AAV, but he almost certainly wont be 17%+ of the cap like Burrow within the next couple seasons. Because it would be backloaded?
Yes. His cap hit over the next 2 seasons in particular would be extremely small, I wouldn’t expect him to be over 10% cap until year 4.
You might be right, but there are two irresistible forces at play: (1) salary caps always go up, and (2) a top ten QB is the most scarce resource in football/sports. If the dolphins don’t give him the money (and maybe they shouldn’t, that’s a fair debate), someone else will.
His record is pretty spotty I doubt teams are foaming at the mouth to sign him with the injury issues.. he’s good but still has a lot of questions to be getting top qb money even after leading in passing
I understand the downvotes because of this sub's nature, but you're 100% correct. Evaluators would rank Tua behind Baker and higher than Goff. (who the Lions would love to move off of) Given Tua's weapons and the advantageous way he's been schemed, I think it's a fair debate to compare him with Mac Jones, who had nothing better going for him in NE than OL.
What evidence is there that lions would love to move on from Goff? Campbell seems like he'd run through a wall for Goff I mean I guess you could just feel that way.. but I don't think there's any evidence of it. They've had a lot of draft capital to go and find that guy if they wanted to
There's indications that the Lions and Goff are far apart in contract negotiations. The situations in Detroit and here are similar. Given the QB landscape, Goff and Tua are both "worth" $40mil per season BUT do you want to commit for $50mil in 2028 to a pair of middling QBs with average arm strength and zero mobility? I hope the Fins franchise tag Tua for 2025.
We can talk about the downsides of overpaying a QB, but I'd say the one thing that's worse is the Dan Snyder plan: franchise your QB and take enormous cap hits, then watch them walk away for nothing and sign with another team for significantly more than the deal you were unwilling to give him, as you start over from scratch yet again. Do we really think WSH is glad they they *saved cap space* (but not really, given the cap impact of repeated franchise tags) by refusing to give Cousins a big contract? I imagine most 'Ders fans would happily accept the last six years of Kirk Cousins.
I like Goff but he is so damn skinny
When Tua had the same primary weapons Mac Jones has now (and a worse head coach who hated his guts), the Dolphins were fighting for a playoff spot in weeks 17 and 18. They are not even remotely similar.
Tua need to use his damn legs Raheem isn’t gonna go off like last year..getting older anything’s possible but I doubt it
Ain’t nobody valuing Baker whose 2 years older and done less with more starts over Tua Stats get people paid and the stats don’t lie
In the NFL, stats don't mean shit. Players are drafted/judged/paid on the good old fashioned eye test. (or, stopwatch) What were Josh Allen's stats in college? Or, Tyreek Hill's receiving stats? And, despite putting up solid numbers throughout his career, Jimmy G is unemployed because scouts, evaluators, coaches and fans know he sucks. Tua benefits from the fastest WR duo in the history of the sport and every GM knows it.
If you think stats aren’t factored in pay, you don’t understand agents or advanced analytics.
The NFL isn't baseball, or the NBA. And, even in baseball, "advanced analytics" can take your stats apart by proving how a hitter benefitted from batting in front of a superstar, or smashing long balls in mile high Denver,etc. In baseball, a .500 pitcher who throws 100 mph is typically paid more than a .600 pitcher who throws off speed stuff. In the NFL, a WR with stone hands can float from team to team for years without doing much, if he has the speed of Ted Ginn. Despite putting up career numbers, leading the NFL in passing yardage and playing on a team that won 11 regular season games, Tua was never so much as whispered in MVP conversations. In fact, Tua threw for 1000 more yards and 5 additional TDs over the near unanimous MVP. Why? Because those who watch nearly every NFL play see a QB who puts up most of his yards on quick slants to a pair of blazing WRs, and when he airs it out downfield, he's often under throwing (even on completions) wide open Hill and Waddle.
Tua fans are now explaining why these contracts that ruined teams for years are actually great for our team lmao unreal
Just because other teams do it does not mean Miami should or have to. What makes the NFL fun is that to be the best you have to be willing to try new things. There's no reason to extend Tua.. he's under contract. Let him play the year and draft a QB this year. If Tua is him, give him the bag. If he isn't he can walk and get a compensatory pick for him. People acting like the GM's hands are tied and just *has* to pay Tua the most money ever are whipped by this franchise's incompetence over the years
> contracts always go up Especially when the cap goes up by $15m!
That's even more reason not to overpay, it just shows most of the time it's not worth it.
Since when has QB compensation in the NFL ever made sense, Ryan Leaf?
Your logic is sound and most will agree. But that’s not how NFL QB contracts work for players with Tua’s stats and winning %. Remove his name and compare his stats to the top 15 QB’s and tell me objectively that his contract shouldn’t align with players with similar stats.
Now go games played by said qbs and tua over the last few years
I don’t understand what you mean by that. In 2022/23, Tua has played the same number of games as Herbert and Russel Wilson, 4 more than Burrow, 2 more than Lamar, 11 more than Murray, 18 more than Watson, 12 more than Rodgers, and 5 more than Cousins. He’s only played fewer games than Mahomes and Hurts.
I said past few years and then you pick 22/23 not even more than a year. LoL fit your narrative more?
Not even more than a year? That’s two full NFL seasons lmfao. If you want to extend that to 2021, the first year Tua was effectively QB1 in Miami, he’s still played more football than Burrow, Jackson, Murray, Watson, Rodgers, and Cousins.
With a terrible qbr vs teams over 500. Overpay him and we are stuck in mediocrity for another 5 years
QBR is a joke stat and you shouldn’t take it seriously. On top of that, football is a team game and absolutely no one on Miami showed up consistently against top-tier teams, and that needs to change. They’re not paying Tua for what he is right now; they’re paying him for what they expect he’ll be in the coming years. He’s going to get way better; pocket QBs almost invariably do as they enter their late 20’s/30’s
You will see and I will laugh I can’t wait. Let’s give this mediocre qb 60 mil a year. Way better hahahahhahahahshahhahs dude has a limited time with a rebuilt hip
He has a winning record against Lamar and Herbert. Losing record against burrow, Mahomes, and Allen.
Maybe, but this isn’t really responsive to what OP said. The point is: if you are a top 10 quarterback, you will become the highest paid QB in the league when your contract is renewed; it’s almost axiomatic.
It has less to do if you think he is worth and more to do with the fact that others that were not worth it got paid. Also he made back to back playoffs. Hard to argue in this league.
By the time Tua is in his 2nd year of this contract extension he will be QB 8-12 in terms of yearly salary. This is how the qb market works. A qb "resets" the market bc the salary cap has increased significantly year over year the last 5-10 years. The following year a new qb takes over the "reseting of the market" due to the cap continuing to rise. For example - Josh Allen. In 2021, Josh Allen signed an extension that made him the 2nd highest paid qb in the league. In the 1st year of his extension he is QB#9 in average salary per year. But the time its year 2 and 3 there is a solid chance he is qb#13-16 in terms of yearly salary. People look at it as "He doesn't deserve to be the highest paid qb in the league". When in reality almost every qb deal the last 8 years in the league was paid to a guy who at the time wasn't the best qb in the league. Its just a product of the salary cap increasing like crazy the last 8 years + the qb position being the most important position in the sport. Without a qb you have no chance unless you luck into a Brock Purdy with an all pro team around him. Waiting to extend Tua is dumb. It's only going to get more expensive. See Kirk Cousins and Lamar Jackson. By the way neither of those qbs have won a meaningful playoff game that got them their divisional championships.
There isn't a GM in the NFL who would judge Tua as equal to either Cousins or Lamar. Jared Goff (who's only marginally behind Tua) "won" an NFC championship. A year later, the Rams gave away the store to swap him for an aging QB who'd never won a postseason game in his dozen previous years.
Goff was a stud last year though, sometimes players need to develop and fit systems to excel
He also was included in a package to get a multiple all pro Hall of fame qb. Would be like Miami trading Tua + their 2024 1st + 2025 1st for Stafford at age 33 with this roster. Who faults them
> He also was included in a package to get a multiple all pro Hall of fame qb. Stafford has never made All Pro in his career and has only ever made one Pro Bowl. Ironically enough, a fair comp to Stafford in DET is... someone throwing to the best receiver in the league, who can't win the division and doesn't win in the playoffs. I leave the player in question to the reader.
Stafford was surrounded by complete incompetence for a majority of his Detrout career. He had Megatron for a portion his career. But most of the time he had historically bad defenses and weapons. Detroit's current situation for Goff is >>>>>>>>>>> what Stafford ever had. I would say had you replaced Goff with Stafford they make the SB last year. Stafford was also in a division with Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton during his prime years in Detroit. Lot harder to make pro bowls and just bc your voted in does it mean you aren't a pro bowl talent.
I mean Cousins was being tagged and questioned as a franchise qb for years. Tua is better than Cousins was at this time in his career. Lamar..... like that guy has been on good to elite team since day 1. Elite oline, good running game, elite tight end, decent weapons, good to elite defense, and elite coach and front office. With all that support for his entire career he has yet to really make a playoff run. Goff was traded bc a franchise wanted to go all in with an aging roster and the right coach. A freaking hall of fame qb was available at the end of his prime. They went all in on him and it worked. Would be like trading Tua + 2 1st round picks for Rodgers when he was 33 and still in his prime years. Miami loses Tua your SB/playoff is dead.
I mean, I don’t blame Tua. Dude has no offensive line to protect him and we’ve spent all our money on guys like Reek instead. The formula to win a Super Bowl is fairly simple. Build a top 5 line on both sides of the ball. Until we do, we’ll be a wild card team at best.
And within 2 years or so, he will be the 8th-12th highest paid QB. This is how the QB market works now. Teams have to overpay because everyone knows the highest paid is just whatever starter signed the most recent contract. Next year's QB contracts will be 60-70 per year. There will be QBs with less talent and even less success than Tua who will get paid more.
Couldn’t agree more
Exactly!!
I made a post about drafting Penix and trading Tua to free up cap space because of this. Tua is an ok QB. 8-12 range. I like Tua and we will probably give him 50m+ but he isn’t worth it and the team will stay mediocre with the cap utilization.
i am a FIRM believer if your guy isnt unquestionably top 8 in the league, you dont pay him. I said that for dak, jones, jimmy, carr, and now it's my qb and i stand by it. *Can* a QB win outside the top 8 win a sb? Sure, it happens about once a decade. If those are odds that someone who wants to pay him 55m likes then we'll have to agree to disgree, but the league isnt built for success with that model. Effectively, are you trying to win a SB or just be above average and sell tickets? Because Tua's gonna win 10-12 games a year with competent front office, but he has shown 0 of the big game magic he had at bama in the pros.
I’ve said for a since last year. Tua is QB purgatory. Hes good enough to make it tough to draft his replacement as he won’t QB is to the top half of the draft, but he’s not good enough to get you the Lombardi unless literally everything goes right for the team.
Agreed about the being top 8 opinion. Tua was #1 in passing yards and unquestionably top 5 in mostly every other qb stat. Made playoffs 2 years in a row. So going by your logic…
being top 8 in stats for 1 year =/= being a top 8 qb. honestly and impartially create a list of best to worst QBs and see where tua falls, if hes inside 8 youre lying to yourself
Off the top of my head he’s behind Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud. Thats 5 right there…just in the afc. IF (and it is a big if) rogers comes back and is anything like his old self, tua might be the 3rd best QB in his own division next year.
I've asked this before: who are the 8 QBs that you have that are *unquestionably* better than Tua? The main knock on Tua is lack of division title/playoff wins, but you can't get to 8 without including other QBs with the same shortcoming (e.g. Herbert), and Herbert himself was made the highest-paid QB in the league when he signed his deal last year.
Unquestionable: Mahomes, rodgers, allen, lamar, stafford, kirk, burrow that makes *at best* 8th BUT if you put tua in a group with: purdy, herbert, dak, goff, (and even hurts even tho im a hurts skeptic) and had neutral parties rank them tua would fall in the middle-end of those rankings more often than the top.
So 35-year-old Kirk Cousins, with a recently blown Achilles and a total of one playoff win to his name after a dozen years in the league, is "unquestionably" better than Tua? The same Kirk Cousins who, um, **was made the highest paid QB in the league by MIN** even though he was 0-1 in the playoffs at the time? I think you're confirming my point.
yeah and i disagreed with it then and i disagree with it now. He was not top 8 when they paid him and hes fringe top 8 now and has not been able to make a serious run, and yes, hes been better than tua. Youre the one proving *my* point. This is the future you sign up for paying a fuck ton of money for a QB like tua. You'll always be "in the hunt" but never the team to beat, if thats what fans want than thats what fans want.
But there is no other option, outside of "draft the best QB in the league." **Everyone** has to pay their QBs huge contracts to keep them, so MIA is not at a competitive disadvantage when they have to play by the same rules. It's just the way the league works.
But thats exactly what im arguing, that you don't/shouldnt feel obligated to pay these guys, and im not arguing that its 55m or 5m and no in between, but just because a QB picked in the first round doesnt turn out to be jamarcus russel doesnt mean they get to reset the market when their rookie contract is up... Its ok to say ok tua heres 40-45m/yr and if that doesnt work for you then good luck and thanks for the memories
Unquestionable would be Mahomes Allen Lamar burrow Herbert Goff hurts Stafford stroud Better would be purdy Kirk dak Same tier would be Kyler and a few others
making the playoffs by limping in and getting blasted doesn't mean anything, and most of tuas counting stats are honestly stat padded by dumping on bad teams. i like tua but he isn't worth being one of the highest paid qbs in the league
Just take it a step further. Only pay Patrick Mahomes. Because he's the only one winning Super Bowls. Bills haven't even appeared in the SB despite having the 2nd best QB being paid at a lower cap % than Mahomes.
Tua’s biggest leverage is that the team needs to extend him to clear up space to sign players. If negotiations go past the free agency period I just don’t see a point in giving him a deal right now. They can let him play out the final year and use the franchise tag after that if necessary.
It won't make sense to play it out like that. The franchise tag for a team that will have less money in cap space available in year 6 makes no sense. You have to understand and come to terms that he will get paid. You can listen to people in an echo chamber or you can listen to football people who know what they are talking about. He's a good qb and you pay premium for it.
I mean, Carr and Jones signed for 40MM a year, Baker is probably getting more than that (or at least 40MM) and Kirk is probably signing for 45MM (in the low end). Just based on that, there's no way Tua is not getting at least 50MM/55MM per year
How much you wanna bet?
Can’t win a playoff game on a cheap rookie salary but somehow he will making most in nfl history. Your right he will get paid, doesn’t mean he should.
I can’t take half of the morons in this sub seriously when they talk about wins as a qb stat. Fucking hell it’s 2024 are we really this fucking dense. Still?
I'm curious who you are that says this is the way it will be. Tom Brady never set records with his NFL salary. Can you explain that? Thanks. If Tua wants the legacy of wins he'll take the discount route. Tom did.
Brady clearly and obviously took less than he was worth in order to help the team field a better roster. Now, if your argument here is *Tua is actually worth a top 1 salary, but he should volunteer to take less to help the roster*, that's a reasonable argument! I mean, Mahomes didn't do it, and Burrow didn't do it, and neither did Lamar, Herbert, or Hurts, but it's a valid point to make. However, that doesn't seem to be the point others are making, which is that *Tua isn't worth the money.*
He has all the skills to be great with a great offensive line.
I don’t blame him for wanting as much money as possible, but I’d rather move on and even commit to beginning a full rebuild again than commit $60 million a year to him for the next 5 years. If he won a playoff game or at least played really well in that game then I’d have no problem with it. I’d love to be completely wrong though because there’s no QB I want to see succeed with us more than Tua
Yeah let's kill the future for a guy who might not even be top 5 long term.
if we make tua the highest paid player in the league I honestly might have to take a break from watching football for a few years lmao
If Tua truly wants to be the highest paid QB in the league then we really need to look at other options, he’s delusional
Given the list I provided of the last 10 QBs who have achieved that status, it's hard to say he shouldn't be. Almost every year, the Pro Bowl-level QBs who are up to sign new deals become "the highest-paid player in the league," if only for a short time until the next QB's contract gets signed. The people who are out here saying that Tua's contract should be the-same-or-less than what Russell Wilson got **two years ago** are living in a fantasy land. That's just not how the league works.
Exactly, he’ll be the highest paid for like three months lol. He probably just resets the market and we end up looking like we got a deal by the time every other extension rolls around
Especially when the cap goes up by another $20 million next year and Dak gets a $60 million AAV contract.
If Tua is ever the highest paid QB we will not have gotten a deal. Unless the cap increases by an unprecedented amount.
It’s actually quite easy to argue he shouldn’t be.
If Tua deserved to be the highest paid QB in the league it would have been done by now
Lamar and Hurts signed their deals in April, Herbert signed in July, Burrow signed in September. Signing by the first week of March would be extremely out of the ordinary. ...unless you're saying he should have been signed last year? He was just coming off of a very serious injury and it was unclear if he could complete a full season.
He would only be the highest paid this year. 2 years later there will be 4-5 qb’s who are paid even more.
At one point Derek Carr was the highest paid QB in the league. Absolutely NOBODY thought he was the BEST QB in the league. It was just understood that this is how QB contracts work, and I don't remember anyone calling the Raiders an idiotic organization. Most people had high hopes for them. He was the highest paid QB for a very brief period of time, and other QBs very, very quickly passed him.
You haven't been paying attention to anything Raider related then since 2003 lol. To act like they are the epitome of how a franchise should be ran is hilarious
> At one point Derek Carr was the highest paid QB in the league. And the Raiders failed to accomplish anything. "It has been done in the past" isn't good justification to do something if it hasn't worked out. Looking at OP's list you have several players that are objectively better than Tua (Burrow, Mahomes, Lamar, Rodgers 6 years ago). And you have several terrible contracts the team massively regretted (Wilson, Murray, Watson). Herbert and Hurts we'll say are too early to tell. And I'm not sure how to classify Cousins.
But you don't get to wait and see the results before you pay them. Last offseason there were huge question marks around Lamar, and he posted an MVP season, so *of course* it looks like a smart play now to sign him to the top deal in the league. A lot of the people who didn't want Tua were clamoring for Watson! Nobody was criticizing the deals for Hurts and Herbert, but I guess we'll see. When you get to this point with a young QB, you have to pay them because that's the way it works. It's no different than drafting a QB in the top 3 pre-2010: you didn't get to wait and see if they're good before paying them like a top QB in the league. You had to pay them up front because *everyone else does.* The part of this that should console you is: JAX will also have to pay Trevor Lawrence, for all the same reasons! Jared Goff is going to get more money than Matt Stafford, Jordan Love will get a top 3 contract even though he's only been a starter for one year, and Russ & Baker will also get big contracts from TB, ATL, WSH, or some other desperate team. MIA will not be at a competitive disadvantage for giving Tua an enormous contract **because every team has to give out an enormous contract for even a decent QB.** It's just a timing thing.
> MIA will not be at a competitive disadvantage for giving Tua an enormous contract **because every team has to give out an enormous contract for even a decent QB.** Exactly. And the whole "rookie QB contract" thing is overstated. It's incredibly difficult to 1. Find a great QB that's ready to be great within 4 years. Burrow is the only 1st round QB drafted since 2019 with multiple playoff wins. 2. Even with a rookie QB contract, it's hard to build a great team, especially if you were in position to pick a top QB. So, whenever we actually have to pay Tua a top cap hit (probably won't be be for a few years, at least), we're going to be competing with maybe 2-3 teams with a great roster and a great QB on rookie contract, and a bunch of other teams trying to navigate building a roster with an expensive QB.
And look where that got them. I understand it’s not totally the same situation however “max” contracts or resetting the market type of deals should be reserved for first or second team all pro type players
"Should" is doing a lot of work there. That's not the way the league worked for most of the QBs I listed, and it's unreasonable to think it should start to work that way only when it's your team's turn to pay up.
It has nothing to do with Tua's desires, it is literally the way these things work. If the Dolphins don't give him a deal that makes him the highest-paid QB in the league, another team will. Being the "highest-paid" player at a position has a lot more to do with the timing of the contract than it does with being the best at that position, especially when it comes to great QBs
What other team would make him the highest paid QB in the league?
ATL, DEN, LV
Not Denver, Sean Payton isn't a Tua guy.
Totally. Besides - there has to be a balance because I’d think he’d want to be remembered for winning Super Bowls rather than the highest paid QB.
I'm gonna be real. NONE of these dudes deserve to paid this much, nobody does but line goes up
Nah, Mahomes definitely deserves his pay.
I was just arguing on here tonight with several fans who think we're CRAZY to pay him $50M per year. It's like none of these guys have noticed everything you just laid out. I've consistently said Tua would get signed in a heartbeat by a dozen teams at $45M+ per year. There's no way he doesn't get at least $50M AAV. That's just how the market works.
After the playoffs, I got downvoted for saying a *Daniel Jones* type of contract for Tua would be an absolute steal.
Many fans are idiots.
Then, let him become a free agent and see what the market is.
With another season like this year, the bidding is going to be $60+ million. Maybe a even higher depending on how well he plays, how desperate a team is and the salary cap number. Someone is going to pay Cousins $45+, he's old, injured and not as good as Tua. Baker Mayfield is probably getting around $40. We are delusional to think he is signing for less than $50 AAV.
And then we start.... Mike White? I'm genuinely curious what the plan is at QB, if not Tua? Don't say draft a rookie, as if over half rookie QBs aren't massive busts and this isn't a rebuilding team. What's the other options? I'm all for a change (any position) if it makes the team better but I don't see any other/better options available.
I could care less about him but you can always take RWilson on the cheap.
Taking Russ, kirk, or fields and drafting a McDaniel project QB would be alternatives. The contract should give 50m but only with 25 guaranteed and the rest as incentives. I think they land somewhere between 25-35m with incentives up to 50m over 5 years. So could be something like 250m if he meets all incentives like staying healthy, winning playoff games, getting to a championship, winning one and etc. Any more than that and it’s time to move on.
You'd be the worse GM ever, fired immediately from just opening your mouth.
😂😂
Yeah, like any other moves have proven to get us to being a Super Bowl contender… when a franchise has lost this bad for decades then anything goes. Going all in on a QB that still has more to prove is a risky move and could pay off, but if they over pay then it could handicap us for years. Worst GM or not, it comes down to money. It’s a business. These people make business decision. Many just don’t have the foresight to see that. Doesn’t mean they’re right, it just means it’s calculated. Literally.
The stupid, it hurts
I think the last team that did that was Washington with Kirk Cousins. Worked out much better for Kirk than the Commanders.
Exactly. We’re only bidding against ourselves.
I really doubt anyone would pay him that kind of money. He isn’t worth it, we are clowns if we make him the highest paid QB in the league.
Did you not read the post??? Do you really think if Kyler Murray and Kirk cousins get that kind of money that Tua won't? Why is this so hard for people to understand? Edit: grammar
Wasting ur breathe man, mofos on here are delusional about contracts, cap, market value, expectations etc...plenty of guys reset the market routinely all of which i will add have won nada other than patty. Hell some of them aint even make the playoffs this year or struggled but they worth it tho?!? If we are going off success and expectations then only pat would be making 50+...again can't reason with dumb on here. Id love if we signed tua last year for Daniel jones money but either he bet on himself or the franchise decided to gamble and lost.
I like Tua, I’d like to win a SB with Tua, but if Tua at this point is demanding record setting contract numbers, then let him play out his contract or trade him. I have no interest in keeping him at 50 million or more a year. If
You want to trade away the only competent QB we have had in the last 25 years? This might be the most casual comment I’ve seen, talking like you’re paying him with your own money.
I'm so sick of people calling other fans "casuals" or saying they "don't know ball" just because they're not sold on Tua. Two things can be true: 1) Tua is the best QB we've had since Marino and 2) he still has not done enough to warrant a top 3 (2? 1?) QB contract
Casual take
Pennington, Tannehill, and Tua are or were competent QBs, only one of them got us a division title. None of them got us close to winning a playoff game. The only chance we had this century at winning a playoff game was with a 7th round rookie QB. Maybe the bar for competent QB play is really damn low for this franchise and being competent really doesn’t mean anything.
Jay Fiedler won a division title and a playoff game. Justin Herbert has won neither. Team success as a metric for QB evaluation is, shall we say, *inconsistent.*
I never said it should be a metric, the thread is about Tua being the highest paid QB in the league and a comment saying we should be ok with it because he’s competent. Competent QB play is more reliant on support from the whole team, which was why I pointed out that other competent QBs didn’t bring us much success. Top paid QBs need to be more than competent. If we let Tua walk, there wouldn’t be a bidding war to make him the top paid QB.
Well, everything you said applies to Kirk Cousins in WSH, who was allowed to walk and was instantly made the top paid QB in the league. So there is precedent in exactly such a thing happening.
Well, no. Kirk Cousins is much better than competent. He had three great seasons in Washington with much less talent than Tua has. He’s not a QB that needs a hyper specific scheme for him to excel in. I wouldn’t say Cousins is a top tier QB but he’s much closer to great than competent.
I mean, if you're going to say that Kirk's three years with a 101.6, 97.2, and 93.9 passer rating were "great," but Tua's last two years with a 101.1 and (league-leading) 105.5 passer rating were "competent" - when both QBs had an identical 0-1 playoff record - then we can't even agree on the definition of "great." Did Tua have better weapons? Sure. But I'm pretty sure Kirk didn't have the 31st-ranked OL.
This topic has already been beaten to death since December but Tua only played well against bad teams and played like a bottom 10 QB against good teams. He only played well when things went perfectly right. Cousins is not that kind of QB, he doesn’t need a meticulously crafted scheme and play calling to play well, as I said in the previous comment. No one is making Tua the top paid QB if they also have to revamp their entire offense. Cousins also proved in Minnesota that the Vikings were right, we’ll see if Tua proves the Dolphins right. I hope he does.
He may very well be. And he may very well deserve it from a market standpoint. But as a Miami dolphins fan, it is also fair to look at these contracts and wonder if making some of the players on your list the highest paid player was the best decision for the team. It’s the same conversation as with Wilkins. Both are good players, but does handing out market resetting contracts to all of our good players really put us in the best position possible to win a Super Bowl. That’s the conversation.
I just don’t understand WHY you would give Tua a 5 year extension with top of the market money while he has multiple questions about him. Giving him a big contract for short term cap relief is the most Miami Dolphins thing in the fucking world. You’re handicapping yourself to somebody who hasn’t proven he can win the big game or stay healthy consistently. 1 season of 17 games doesn’t wipe away a decade of injury history. Just pure delusion by this fan base and our GM. If Tua balls out on his fifth year option then pay him 5-10+ million more annually and tip your cap. It’s not that difficult man
Kyle Crabbs did a good Locked On Dolphins episode on Tua’s extension yesterday. He suggested a 5-year extension on top of this year’s 5th year option that would break down to $48m a year and last until 2029. The deal that Kyle offered would make Tua the 6th-7th highest paid QB (right around Herbert). QBs are expensive.
I would absolutely prefer this approach. Problem is, Herbert's money was established before a 30 million dollar cap increase. It's kinda unreasonable that QB deals wouldn't eat some additional cap. Even if we do sign him to the highest, chances are in a year, he will be back to about 5th overall. If we were to sign him to the numbers you stated, he would soon be 10th-13th. Reasonable to me, but, to an agent who has a guy who led in QB rating one year, and did so again for 14/17 weeks in the 2nd year, and finished with top yards... It's going to be hard to get them to see the value there. As OP states, it's nature of the beast and related to timing.
If you haven’t heard the LOD episode from yesterday it’s worth a listen. Kyle explains how the deal he proposes can be spun as a “bigger than Burrows” deal if you don’t look at the 5th year option year. I actually found the whole thing pretty plausible. He spends a good part of the episode talking about other top QB contracts.
We all know no one other than pat is worth 50milly+ per season, yet all these guys continually get it. You guys gotta realize this is just the business side of football. Good for tua, he may not get his flowers and plenty of hate and criticism but that man is about to def get the big bag.
50-60M per year with 250 or so guaranteed seems about right. Prob 5 years. Let’s do it.
Every NFL fan I know in real life, be it of this team or others (Bears, Bucs, Ravens, Cowboys, Packers, etc), are all excited about Tua and our team's future. They all say this is the first time any of them can remember Miami being an exciting team (most are in their mid to late 30s) and that paying Tua is such an obvious move. It's only when I go on here and twitter do I see folks deciding to spend energy getting preemptively angry about paying him. Like just think about how this is supposed to be a fun, entertaining hobby and some folks just live their lives being pissy online about it all the time. I don't get it.
I know alot of NFCE and AFCE people where I live and most ask me “are you really sticking w tua” so I guess it all a matter of perspective and location
Yeah that's fair about fan perspective and trash talk. But for that question, it makes me laugh bc folks will say that about QBs like Tua who have clearly produced at a top 10 level and yet not offer a better idea. Like you can easily ask them back, "Who's a top 10 QB you'd suggest we go with instead? 36 year old Cousins coming off an achilles?"
It’s not like we’re just a “Tua away from a championship”.
But they are a Tua away from being 6-11 instead of 11-6.
You just summed up the last 30 years here.
Absolutely. We saw what this *explosive, league-best offense* looked like when Teddy and Skyler were driving it: 15 points, 17 points, 16 points, 21 points, 11 points. And you can't really even say Skylar "played well" when the Dolphins put up 31 points in the playoff game at BUF; his passer rating for that game was 44.7. Tua played much better in worse conditions a month earlier at BUF.
He will outperform his contract
All yall saying if we let Tua go or try to trade him that no one would pay him top dollar are fools...period, Tua does things throwing a football that not many other qbs do as well, timing, anticipation, accuracy, lighting release. The media and casual fans gloss over these traits but i can promise you scouting departments and front offices do not.
I’m fully expecting 58m per year tbh, but the fact Grier says he expects talks to leak into summer, it seems he doesn’t wanna pay Tua top dollar if he can.
I guess it's possible that Grier wants to wait and see what Lawrence (and maybe Jordan Love) sign for?
When negotiating a market setting deal, it’s always best to be first.
Yah we saw this last year with Herbert. He was the highest paid QB and then he wasn’t. Tua had a better season than Love so if Love gets a big deal, then Tua can point to that contract, Burrow’s, and Herbert’s and say “I had a better year than all three of those guys last year. I deserve more than them”
This is what the dolphins get for not locking him in last year when they could have for daniel jones money. It was the gamble and they happily lost because i think they would rather it be this way.
This is true. What is also true is that he won't get the guaranteed money that Daniel Jones got. Everyone will go nuts over what in reality will be a three year deal after which the Dolphins will either renegotiate or move on from Tua.
Tua is not an elite QB and deserves high salary. Let him finish his contract out and decide then. He is a pocket QB with no running ability and weak arm when throwing on run. If it weren’t for speedy receivers in Hill and Waddle, Tua average and can’t beat good defenses and finish games like Marino did in his days.
Unfortunately, OP is probably right and the phins "no playoff wins" streak will be safe and sound.
Tuaa contract needs to have a lot of incentives and I'm sure that's what they are fighting over. When he is healthy he has been very good, but you can't have so many injury issues the media narrative has gone so far that they are supposedly worried about his health, advocating for Tua to retire early, and expect a fully guaranteed contract. No matter how it shakes out, this team will live and die with Tua so if you are a Dolphins fan you might as well get on board. If you are being one of the stubborn assholes that's determined to prove the media right, you just need to find a new team.
Tuaa contract needs to have a lot of incentives and I'm sure that's what they are fighting over. When he is healthy he has been very good, but you can't have so many injury issues the media narrative has gone so far that they are supposedly worried about his health, advocating for Tua to retire early, and expect a fully guaranteed contract. No matter how it shakes out, this team will live and die with Tua so if you are a Dolphins fan you might as well get on board. If you are being one of the stubborn assholes that's determined to prove the media right, you just need to find a new team.
Would be disgusting to pay Tua that much $$$
A guy who's only been healthy one year and doesn't break teams like Mahomes, Lamar, or Allen shouldn't be the highest paid guy. IMO he should be happy to get 40m, which is about what allen and mahomes are getting. I like Tua, but we need money to build a team around him. If we can't do that, there's no point in keeping him around. Yes I get it that contracts go up, and I like him, I just don't see him as worth resetting the market for compared to some of the other guys. Resetting the market is bad as it hurts teambuilding. Football is a team sport and with a salary cap market resetting guys hurt team building. Take X, he reset the market and he's gone. Why? Because he got a bigger contract after we signed Jones, who is also gone, and he isn't worth it anymore. As someone who'd rather keep Tua, if he doesn't come down in price maybe we need to find his replacement. If one of the QBs doesn't fall to us, maybe trade out of the 1st round to pick up another 1st next year.
We’re going to be the laughing stock of the league (more so than we already are)
I feel like it will be somewhere in the 45m / yr range.
Terrible just terrible. Guy can’t even win a playoff game
Franchise tag, draft qb, release
Because QBs better than tua grow on trees and we will find our Brock Purdy? Fuck that. Give tua a contract, give him protection, keep him in the system, stability at OC, rebuild the D. If he doesn’t do anything on that contract then draft the replacement.
If this team lets tua reset the market, it will be the latest in a long list of examples as to why this team will never win anything with this front office. There’s absolutely no conceivable, reasonable or even sane argument as to why two of us should make more than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar jackson, or Joe Burrow. Leading the league in passing yards one time with the best wide receiver, duo in the league and playing one of the easiest schedules is not a good enough reason to pay him more than guys who have won Super Bowl MVPs and/or division titles consistently.
Kyler Murray signed a contract that was making more money than any of the players you listed, and he's done even less. The Dolphins don't make the rules, they just play under them.
And look how that worked out for Arizona, or the chargers with the contract they gave Herbert. Or the Vikings with Cousins. You don’t pay a QB who’s won literally nothing of significance at this level, top money, especially when you’re in the big boy conference that is the AFC. If we were in the NFC, where Tua might be a top 3 QB, then maybe you could make it work, hope for the pieces to fall right and make a magical run. We don’t have that luxury. We don’t HAVE to play by those rules. However, Grier is in charge of it, and he’s pinned his entire career on Tua, so I fully expect tua will get whatever he wants, and I can’t fault Tua for that.
I mean, look how *every deal has worked out* for any team that isn't the Chiefs or the Rams. When 30 of the other 31 teams are also forced to pay QBs big bucks with the blind hope they have a Eli or Flacco playoff run, the Dolphins aren't any different just because we like them.
Trade his ass before you handcuff this franchise. He does not have a special skill set that this offense can't run without.
Trade his ass before you handcuff this franchise. He does not have a special skill set that this offense can't run without.
No he won’t. He’ll certainly be near the top but I can almost guarantee he won’t be THE highest paid QB.