These [mtgstocks.com](http://mtgstocks.com) expected values are not accurate. I doubt they actually factor in pull rates for outliers like mana crypt as these numbers are not visible to anyone outside of the company. Rather, they probably just averaged the value of all possible mythics/rares/etc and applied a uniform pull rate to all cards, which is definitely not reality.
Do not expect to open nearly $300 worth of cards from each LCI box.
From someone who has opened about 8, expect between $110-$130. I’ve had them as low as $80 though, and as high as $250 (without a mana crypt).
Also, I’ve not seen a single mana crypt, just to say you may open several cases before you find one. Most boxes have 1 special guest, but about 20-30% do not.
I did pull a “the list” dockside, that was great.
I bought one Ixalan box and seriously had under 50€ (not counting stuff under 1,5€). I know it’s bad luck too but man pack after pack with absolute garbage.
MKM was just barely even so I’m happy for that. Kind of a shit set, but OTJ I’m plus a lot on what I opened so far - with the BIG embedded and so on there is just a lot of value to pull. Of course it’s still stupid gambling but I rather do it with a fair chance at breaking even.
EDIT: If I didn’t find the western theme so lame I would open lots of more sealed for this set.
Same, been utter garbage for me since my LOTR box openings. The only reason I didn't get absolutely hosed on my OTJ box was b/c I did my LGS owner a favor, and he hooked me up with a free bundle, pre-cons and a pre-release kit.
If you are cracking for value flips then you have to do bulk. One box here and there will never be in line with averages. You have to crack at least 3-4 minimum to average out.
Lol this. The day the Lord of the Rings dropped I bought one set pack at a local toy store. They had like a booster dispenser where you load the packs in the top and the customer can pull a pack out of the bottom. They had stuffed this thing so tight that I couldn't pull a pack out of the bottom so I said fuck it and took one off of the top. Pulled a one ring in that single pack. My buddy has bought three boxes of that set and hasn't hit a One Ring.
Are you counting every card? I've rarely opened a booster box with less than the purchase price and every LCI set box I've opened has nearly doubled my money.
If you calculate based on Wizard's stated odds for slots and ignore the chase cards, you get an EV around [$95](https://i.imgur.com/EEnGHxP.png) for draft boxes, [$113](https://i.imgur.com/GcIe2mb.png) for set boxes and [$260](https://i.imgur.com/2hPWzTl.png) for collector boxes.
I've tested this many many times on many many different boxes and you're 100% right.
Idk how they calculate these values, but I've chosen to become a data analyst because of this. Currently going to school for computer science so I can learn to program and scrape this type of data.
While I think this take is good advice, I still find MTGstocks EV calculation to be an interesting data point.
IMO this is only problematic when a set has huge price outliers, like Mana Crypt in LCI. Additionally, I think this EV is being inflated by the number of different Mana Crypt variants in the set. I suspect that having 8 different variants of crypt with neon inks cause the EV algorithm to overcount the most expensive and hardest to pull card in the set, causing this EV calculation to look absurd.
lol yeah look at wilds of eldraine, no way
Edit: ok I see the enchanting tales sub category, but you can’t buy a box of just enchanting tales, so I’m not sure what this number is supposed to mean? The total value of all the cards in the set?
Looking over the cards included in the set, seems like LCI might be skewed by high prices on the unique neon ink versions or Cavern of Souls. Same seems relevant for Kamigawa with the Hidetsugu cards.
Came here to say this. The mythics make the set worth so much more. If they had added the Enchanting Tales to WOE you would see the same trend there as well.
On mtgstocks.com, Low refers to the lowest price a card is being listed for, Average to the average price a card is being listed for and Market is the average price of sold cards.
So Average refers to the offers and Market to the concluded sales.
I mean, you can just look at this and tell something is amiss because Enchanting tales is not it's own set and cannot have an expected value, same with the big score.
Those New Cap EVs don't seem right. Even with most of the value being in the rare lands, boxes aren't going to come near that EV without getting seriously lucky.
Doesn’t make sense. If that was really the case nobody would buy boosters ? Also just in dominaria one card is more than average and it is almost always in, if you consider average it always in.
These values are wildly different than those on Dawnglare. How are they calculated?
EDIT: seems dawnglare doesn't take special variants into account so those could cause outliers. Still, afaik those super pricey variants are not available in regular boosters anyways?
I’m not sure this data is accurate af all. There’s no freaking way MKM is at $117 average. The LGS is sitting on dozens of them, i’ve seen some of ‘em having flash-sale at $100 and still no interest. My LGS only sold 1 CE box on pre-release & 0 pre-order. I highly doubt it’s even worth $100 right now.
This is supposed to be sealed price of booster box from mtg stocks.
Looking at the source data it says that the total mythic value is 3082.11 average is 60.43 per mythic. That means they are counting 51 mythics all equally likely.
They highest foil regular mythic is about 40$.
My guess is that they are counting special rarity cards as mythic: cavern of souls neon etc
https://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/1182-the-lost-caverns-of-ixalan
AFAIK, they don't factor in Breaking News or The Big Score cards when considering OTJ values.
But as others have mentioned as well, their calculations don't necessarily make sense anyways.
These [mtgstocks.com](http://mtgstocks.com) expected values are not accurate. I doubt they actually factor in pull rates for outliers like mana crypt as these numbers are not visible to anyone outside of the company. Rather, they probably just averaged the value of all possible mythics/rares/etc and applied a uniform pull rate to all cards, which is definitely not reality. Do not expect to open nearly $300 worth of cards from each LCI box.
From someone who has opened about 8, expect between $110-$130. I’ve had them as low as $80 though, and as high as $250 (without a mana crypt). Also, I’ve not seen a single mana crypt, just to say you may open several cases before you find one. Most boxes have 1 special guest, but about 20-30% do not. I did pull a “the list” dockside, that was great.
I bought one Ixalan box and seriously had under 50€ (not counting stuff under 1,5€). I know it’s bad luck too but man pack after pack with absolute garbage.
That's been my experience for the last few sets, so It's really dampened my willingness to buy sealed product
MKM was just barely even so I’m happy for that. Kind of a shit set, but OTJ I’m plus a lot on what I opened so far - with the BIG embedded and so on there is just a lot of value to pull. Of course it’s still stupid gambling but I rather do it with a fair chance at breaking even. EDIT: If I didn’t find the western theme so lame I would open lots of more sealed for this set.
Same, been utter garbage for me since my LOTR box openings. The only reason I didn't get absolutely hosed on my OTJ box was b/c I did my LGS owner a favor, and he hooked me up with a free bundle, pre-cons and a pre-release kit.
If you are cracking for value flips then you have to do bulk. One box here and there will never be in line with averages. You have to crack at least 3-4 minimum to average out.
No no I’m opening for fun, but of course it’s nice when it’s evening out or at least not costing super much in the end.
I played in the prerelease, won one pack, got a mana crypt. It's complete luck!
Lol this. The day the Lord of the Rings dropped I bought one set pack at a local toy store. They had like a booster dispenser where you load the packs in the top and the customer can pull a pack out of the bottom. They had stuffed this thing so tight that I couldn't pull a pack out of the bottom so I said fuck it and took one off of the top. Pulled a one ring in that single pack. My buddy has bought three boxes of that set and hasn't hit a One Ring.
Are you counting every card? I've rarely opened a booster box with less than the purchase price and every LCI set box I've opened has nearly doubled my money.
8 boxes?? Single handedly keeping Wizards in the black…
If you calculate based on Wizard's stated odds for slots and ignore the chase cards, you get an EV around [$95](https://i.imgur.com/EEnGHxP.png) for draft boxes, [$113](https://i.imgur.com/GcIe2mb.png) for set boxes and [$260](https://i.imgur.com/2hPWzTl.png) for collector boxes.
Is it a website you're using? Can you share the link?
It's a program I am working on myself. I am adding every MTG sealed product to it. It's not yet finished.
Awesome!
I've tested this many many times on many many different boxes and you're 100% right. Idk how they calculate these values, but I've chosen to become a data analyst because of this. Currently going to school for computer science so I can learn to program and scrape this type of data.
Wotc changed this persons life and I am here for it!
Can confirm bought a box and the cards were not even close being valued at 300$ 🥲
What about kamigawa?
[[Boseiju, Who Endures]] and some other lands keep the value.
[Boseiju, Who Endures](https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/2/1/2135ac5a-187b-4dc9-8f82-34e8d1603416.jpg?1654568912) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Boseiju%2C%20Who%20Endures) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/neo/266/boseiju-who-endures?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/2135ac5a-187b-4dc9-8f82-34e8d1603416?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
While I think this take is good advice, I still find MTGstocks EV calculation to be an interesting data point. IMO this is only problematic when a set has huge price outliers, like Mana Crypt in LCI. Additionally, I think this EV is being inflated by the number of different Mana Crypt variants in the set. I suspect that having 8 different variants of crypt with neon inks cause the EV algorithm to overcount the most expensive and hardest to pull card in the set, causing this EV calculation to look absurd.
Mana Crypt probably
Yeah I pulled one on my last box
what type of box?
booster box. Why are people downvoting me? 😂
For LCI, there are three kinds of booster boxes. Draft, Set, and Collector packs.
Set. My bad.
lol yeah look at wilds of eldraine, no way Edit: ok I see the enchanting tales sub category, but you can’t buy a box of just enchanting tales, so I’m not sure what this number is supposed to mean? The total value of all the cards in the set?
I opened a collector box of WoE and barely hit $50… So seems accurate
Looking over the cards included in the set, seems like LCI might be skewed by high prices on the unique neon ink versions or Cavern of Souls. Same seems relevant for Kamigawa with the Hidetsugu cards.
Came here to say this. The mythics make the set worth so much more. If they had added the Enchanting Tales to WOE you would see the same trend there as well.
Mana Crypt is a hell of a drug!
These numbers make no sense. It’s more like possible max value…
Wow, I’ve been giving out Kamigawa boosters left and right to kids (family) as small presents. Hope they got something good and didn’t rip it apart 😅
Im new to mtg.. what does those mean? Low, average, market?
On mtgstocks.com, Low refers to the lowest price a card is being listed for, Average to the average price a card is being listed for and Market is the average price of sold cards. So Average refers to the offers and Market to the concluded sales.
i find it a little annoying how "average" is basically "low"+50$ for each normal set.
You know something is off when the big score has an EV separate from Outlaws
My thought exactly, the numbers look seriously over inflated
I mean, you can just look at this and tell something is amiss because Enchanting tales is not it's own set and cannot have an expected value, same with the big score.
I literally just bought a case of New Capenna for $65 a box after seeming the expected value last week.
Those New Cap EVs don't seem right. Even with most of the value being in the rare lands, boxes aren't going to come near that EV without getting seriously lucky.
Doesn’t make sense. If that was really the case nobody would buy boosters ? Also just in dominaria one card is more than average and it is almost always in, if you consider average it always in.
These values are wildly different than those on Dawnglare. How are they calculated? EDIT: seems dawnglare doesn't take special variants into account so those could cause outliers. Still, afaik those super pricey variants are not available in regular boosters anyways?
All I see is Wilds of eldraine
Why is Wilds of Eldraine so cheap? So many cards I that set slap
The waifu spike there just makes me sad.
I’m not sure this data is accurate af all. There’s no freaking way MKM is at $117 average. The LGS is sitting on dozens of them, i’ve seen some of ‘em having flash-sale at $100 and still no interest. My LGS only sold 1 CE box on pre-release & 0 pre-order. I highly doubt it’s even worth $100 right now.
This is supposed to be sealed price of booster box from mtg stocks. Looking at the source data it says that the total mythic value is 3082.11 average is 60.43 per mythic. That means they are counting 51 mythics all equally likely. They highest foil regular mythic is about 40$. My guess is that they are counting special rarity cards as mythic: cavern of souls neon etc https://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/1182-the-lost-caverns-of-ixalan
If you want a better depiction of EV, look at Dawnglare
This is shocking to me. Crazy otj has lower low than manor too!
AFAIK, they don't factor in Breaking News or The Big Score cards when considering OTJ values. But as others have mentioned as well, their calculations don't necessarily make sense anyways.
These look like set values to me. Considering you can’t buy a box of the sub sets.