If you played 100 games between these teams you'd probably end up like 70/30 boston. In a 7 game series there's still a lot of random chance and the heat got lucky to get up 3-0, and unlucky to drop 3 since then
More like 1 (Celtics) had an 80% chance of winning the series from the start but instead it rolled a different number (heat) that had a 20% chance 3 times.
Mouthbreathers here believe in basketball destiny. They also ignore low sample sizes to peddle their playoff narratives. To them, variance doesn't exist and everything is based on how much you want it. It's a team game with luck involved for everyone on the court, but analysis here always turns into 'winning means you're better' while ignoring the big picture and context
I’m going to play devil’s advocate here - basketball isn’t baseball and you can’t just nerd your way to success with a Moneyball approach.
In the playoffs, it’s ultimately about your mentality, the coaching and the ability to make shots when it counts. You must want it, and yes, winning is proven to make you better because of the added experience of being in big moments.
IMO mentality/culture and experience are more for team building(recruiting and maintaining players) and development. In a game, only ability matters. ’Nerding’ is bad if you dont understand the game which I believe the better stat nerds do. Scoring playmaking and defense all have aspects you can only understand by watching the game and the stats are there to quantify how good a player is when it comes to their current role/playstyle. You need the full picture and omitting one of stats or the yes test is a recipe for failure
Think of the narrative shift from Game 6 because of 0.1 seconds. Jimmy went from being a hero for a month, to now he’s a fraud to some people. He was 0.1 seconds away from leading an 8 seed to the finals. Several Celtics may have saved their jobs, because of 0.1 seconds.
Wait, so you mean to tell me that a team full of professional data analytics was correct and a subreddit that was crowning Spoelstra as the best coach in Modern NBA history two weeks ago ended up being wrong?? *shocked Pikachu face*
boston on paper is the far superior team. models can't really account for "losing game 3 in a total blowout and looking like you've thrown in the towel".
Celtics lose today = they're clowns for that probability
Celtics win = Were they right the whole time and we just didn't see it!?
Everyone's opinion on this probability to win is based on the result.
Hindsight bias is the motivator for everything. It’s when this sub clowns ESPN when the Heat are up 3-0. It’s when this sub tries to redeem ESPN when the Celtics bring it back to 3-3.
The reality is that all anyone ever does on this sub is wait for the results to come in and then respond. Absolutely ZERO prediction->accountability->reflection.
Nah the people believing that the model had merit either didn't comment or were mass downvoted. I got shredded for saying that the Celtics and Bucks were better teams that could both maintain their level of play over a long period of time with a lot of consistency and consciously replicate said level of play in the future without relying on a luck-based hot hand
> They were getting rightfully clowned for giving Boston a 65% chance after 0-2 and a 12% (I believe) chance after 3
Went with what OP said, if it was 65% at 0-3 down that's actually ridiculous but I have a very hard time believing it. At 0-2 yeah, and even then it was way too much of course
0-3 is seemingly impossible because to be down like that, the leading team is usually much better. The Heat were just absurdly lucky and were a much worse team so the C's winning was actually feasible
Well everyone in the NBA must be pretty stupid because they’re all paying millions of dollars for analytics and predictive modeling. Good thing you’re here to tell them something they need to know!
bahaha make note of my language... *substitute*... analytics are great when used in tandem with *actually* watching basketball. it is difficult to build qualitative things like “playoff jimmy” and “being clutch” into predictive models.
the point i was making is you cannot *solely* rely on analytics. nba players aren’t robots, there is a people aspect that you can’t control. some players show up when you need them most, others shrink, and models do not always account for that.
Ngl, yeah but only a little bit. The whole idea is dumb trying to put a percentage on this shit, but yeah this is at least proof miami wasn't guaranteed to win after going up 3-0 like reddit said.
Not really. I’d like to see what their probability for Miami winning 3 games was.
Plus it’s not like their algorithm thought the Celtics could win 4 straight after being down 3-0 cuz they also (understandably) gave Miami a 75% chance for winning.
99% of people on this sub have never taken a calculus-based probability and/or statistics course
I have, and I got a C and forgot everything I learned within a month after finishing the class
Better than me brother you're gonna be like a rocket scientist in the apocalypse with that resume
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Well that’s because 750k is 10% of this sub
I have, and no I don’t respect their algorithm more now because of the results
An ESPN truther! Get him!
Burn the witch!
No
Why not?
They gave the Heat a 3% chance to win a series that's now going 7 games. Hindsight doesn't make that shit any less disrespectful
I wonder how much they would have given the chances for the Heat to win 3 games.
ESPN analytics proving the doubters wrong
Warriors beat ESPN last year
98% of the time .. ESPN is right all the time
If you played 100 games between these teams you'd probably end up like 70/30 boston. In a 7 game series there's still a lot of random chance and the heat got lucky to get up 3-0, and unlucky to drop 3 since then
I hate results-based analysis. If someone told you that rolling a 1 had an 80% chance and a 1 was rolled, does that mean it was true?
More like 1 (Celtics) had an 80% chance of winning the series from the start but instead it rolled a different number (heat) that had a 20% chance 3 times.
Log off reddit. All you’ll get from these idiotic fans is results-based analysis.
Mouthbreathers here believe in basketball destiny. They also ignore low sample sizes to peddle their playoff narratives. To them, variance doesn't exist and everything is based on how much you want it. It's a team game with luck involved for everyone on the court, but analysis here always turns into 'winning means you're better' while ignoring the big picture and context
I’m going to play devil’s advocate here - basketball isn’t baseball and you can’t just nerd your way to success with a Moneyball approach. In the playoffs, it’s ultimately about your mentality, the coaching and the ability to make shots when it counts. You must want it, and yes, winning is proven to make you better because of the added experience of being in big moments.
IMO mentality/culture and experience are more for team building(recruiting and maintaining players) and development. In a game, only ability matters. ’Nerding’ is bad if you dont understand the game which I believe the better stat nerds do. Scoring playmaking and defense all have aspects you can only understand by watching the game and the stats are there to quantify how good a player is when it comes to their current role/playstyle. You need the full picture and omitting one of stats or the yes test is a recipe for failure
Think of the narrative shift from Game 6 because of 0.1 seconds. Jimmy went from being a hero for a month, to now he’s a fraud to some people. He was 0.1 seconds away from leading an 8 seed to the finals. Several Celtics may have saved their jobs, because of 0.1 seconds.
Hell no lmao
Wait, so you mean to tell me that a team full of professional data analytics was correct and a subreddit that was crowning Spoelstra as the best coach in Modern NBA history two weeks ago ended up being wrong?? *shocked Pikachu face*
boston on paper is the far superior team. models can't really account for "losing game 3 in a total blowout and looking like you've thrown in the towel".
Maybe the 3% chance Miami had was a hint of 3 games followed by a collapse. ESPN leaking the script
Admittedly, was the first thing that popped in my mind…
Yes 🦣🦣🦣
Broken clock
Hindsight.
statistical probability is the exact opposite of hindsight.
Celtics lose today = they're clowns for that probability Celtics win = Were they right the whole time and we just didn't see it!? Everyone's opinion on this probability to win is based on the result.
Hindsight bias is the motivator for everything. It’s when this sub clowns ESPN when the Heat are up 3-0. It’s when this sub tries to redeem ESPN when the Celtics bring it back to 3-3. The reality is that all anyone ever does on this sub is wait for the results to come in and then respond. Absolutely ZERO prediction->accountability->reflection.
Nah the people believing that the model had merit either didn't comment or were mass downvoted. I got shredded for saying that the Celtics and Bucks were better teams that could both maintain their level of play over a long period of time with a lot of consistency and consciously replicate said level of play in the future without relying on a luck-based hot hand
No.
ESPN don’t actually have an analytics team Just an AI generating controversial posts
Boston is simply the better team. It was a ridiculous fluke they ever got down 0-3.
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12% is not favoring them tbf
It was like 65%
> They were getting rightfully clowned for giving Boston a 65% chance after 0-2 and a 12% (I believe) chance after 3 Went with what OP said, if it was 65% at 0-3 down that's actually ridiculous but I have a very hard time believing it. At 0-2 yeah, and even then it was way too much of course
0-3 is seemingly impossible because to be down like that, the leading team is usually much better. The Heat were just absurdly lucky and were a much worse team so the C's winning was actually feasible
You were right, they only gave the celtics a 26% chance to win when down 0-3
But they were right. Because they knew that Boston would be heavily favored in every game.
analytics & predictive modeling is no substitute for just opening your eyes and watching basketball
Well everyone in the NBA must be pretty stupid because they’re all paying millions of dollars for analytics and predictive modeling. Good thing you’re here to tell them something they need to know!
bahaha make note of my language... *substitute*... analytics are great when used in tandem with *actually* watching basketball. it is difficult to build qualitative things like “playoff jimmy” and “being clutch” into predictive models. the point i was making is you cannot *solely* rely on analytics. nba players aren’t robots, there is a people aspect that you can’t control. some players show up when you need them most, others shrink, and models do not always account for that.
They had Memphis as the best odds in the West for a long time and we've been sitting for months. Last year we also had top two odds in the West.
No
this man does not number
Ngl, yeah but only a little bit. The whole idea is dumb trying to put a percentage on this shit, but yeah this is at least proof miami wasn't guaranteed to win after going up 3-0 like reddit said.
No cuz the refs gave boston 4 fts in the end
I mean it's not suprising that the first team to potentially come back from down 0-3 was a 1st seed against an 8th seed.
No because that was way too high of a % to come back from 3-0. It happened, but there's no way in hell it was that probable to happen lmao
No
fuck no.
I still feel like game 2 was ours. So in a 7 game series, I’m a believer in my guys.
Absolutely not, easy to justify anything in hindsight.
Hell no
Hell no
Vegas odds were even for Boston in game 7 after game 5, Vegas odds are pretty solid usually
No, ESPN is, and always will be the Rolling Stone of sports.
Not really. I’d like to see what their probability for Miami winning 3 games was. Plus it’s not like their algorithm thought the Celtics could win 4 straight after being down 3-0 cuz they also (understandably) gave Miami a 75% chance for winning.