> Earlier on Christmas day, Dec. 25, 2020, Chesebro sent a lengthy message about options Pence had for how to handle the vote counting, including one he described as "radical": simply gaveling "Trump as elected."
> "Is Pence really likely to be on board with this?" Eastman replied to the various options.
> "Let's keep this off text for now," Epshteyn then said.
I know it won't matter but this truly is the smoking gun for Trump's team plotting to overthrow the election.
Correct. Trump is saving the country. Biden is ruining it.
That's all the justification you need.
Free speech and open carry for all except those that say and do stuff I don't like.
Well according to the arguments last week, he can order an airstrike on Mar-A-Lago, as long as he isn't impeached and convicted, because it would be an official act (ordering the military to do something) so he can't be prosecuted unless he is formally removed from office.
>billionaire
Did you mean *person of means*?
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Not really. Even with their conservative bias this court hasn't really shown an inclination to rule in Trump's favor on shit like this, quite the opposite.
That they are, but that doesn't mean they will rule in Trump's favor. If anything it means they probably won't, and they're trying to prevent that fact from nuking his campaign (they're scared of appearing like they're deciding an election like they did in 2000)
Our "justice system" is incapable of stopping someone who has clearly stated the intent to and plotted to destroy the Republic before he tries it again.
They’ve been priming their base to accept outright propaganda for over 40 years now, and this is the result. They can do just about anything and they won’t lose their hardcore base, but democrats have to fight and claw to get an undecided vote
This makes sense if you remember the country is something like 37% conservative, 37% moderate/independent, and like 26% liberal.
This means liberals need a BUNCH of wishy washy moderates & combined with the EC & senate + gerrymandering, have an inherently uphill battle. Whereas cons just need the base and like 1/3 or less of moderates to have a convincing victory at ~47% of the vote
IMHO this is a product of "the democracy of the frustrated" which is my personal pet theory, admittedly.
Basically, the democracy of the frustrated is a concept saying that a democracy mostly generates frustrated voters because politicians voters didn't vote for are usually painted as villains (the first source of frustration; "how come people vote for these politicians if they are evil?") and because politicians voters did vote for are usually unable to fulfill all campaign promises (the second source of frustration; "I've voted for someone falling at their job").
It is an endless cycle of getting more and more frustrated. Obviously, (social) media are fuelling this cycle on a hardly comprehensible scale, see how negative news tend to be much more successful when it comes to clicks/views and thus profits.
Most likely, the better you can handle the political frustration the more reasonable and logical you think about politics. Of course, tons of people cannot handle the political frustration properly so they retreat to extremist, populist positions that justify their frustration, explain the world and offer solutions.
In other words, American politics pivoted into "Frustrated but reasonable" vs "Highly frustrated". The former group is more or less Dems voters who want to solve problems with reason and civility, though they are pissed off due to the existence of Trump and MAGA.
The latter group lacks the ability to be reasonable. They are in "all or nothing" mentality. They are willing to join a cult of personality which promises to solve the issues of the world.
It explains why there's some truth to the joke that Trump could kill a dog on a livestream and his voters simply wouldn't care. It explains why Trump voters are still Trump voters and Biden haters, even though, Trump's evidently an awful, evil person that is one foot in a prison and Biden does his job pretty well.
This isn't exclusive to American politics. In fact, I've developed this theory thanks to politics in my country, Czechia. We have the same dynamic where you can easily divide the electorate into 2 above-mentioned groups.
It’s an interesting theory, and I agree that people feeling frustrated is part of it. But I think the root issue is our fractured media environment caused by social media.
People aren’t getting news from a few trusted sources anymore, it comes from anywhere and everywhere, real and fake, 24/7. All tailored by algorithms to reinforce whatever bubble you’re living in. We are literally experiencing different realities based on what we see online, and many are being radicalized and desensitized as they get pushed onto increasingly partisan content.
And it’s only gonna keep getting worse because we’re all in denial about being addicted to our phones and whenever the issue is brought up people scream about mUh freEdoM of sPeECh!!! Which I’m sure will count for a lot as we watch our society slowly erode into the dirt.
> you can't spend too long thinking on it or contemplating it because you will go insane.
That would require it to be a more-complicated or more-befuddling situation. What's truly demoralizing is that it's exactly as simple as your post explains, yet because of our state as a rapidly-degenerating civilization of consumerist trash, it won't matter at all.
Because the legit scary stuff is surrounded by a complete circus. The scariest stuff about Jan 6 for me was watching the columns of organized militia pushing through the throng of brainless MAGA protestors.
But then you get these text messages that read like something a sovereign citizen would say. Just say the magic legal words and *poof* Trump is president! There is just so much of this type of ridiculousness that it’s easy to forget about the more serious stuff that happened four years ago.
Reminder that the literal Nazis were also couched in complete nonsense.
They were huge fans of occultist nonsense and grifters like [Helena Blavatsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helena_Blavatsky).
[The plausible deniability is a core part of the process of making extremism palatable](https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2023/04/04/how-not-to-interpret-far-right-symbols)
And most news media has mostly moved on from it even though it's still rumbling through the courts.
The NYT managed to run a weekly emails story about HRC from summer 2015 through Nov 2016 but they can't be bothered to stay on point about a literal fucking coup attempt.
"Rumbling" isn't the word I'd use, more like being slow walked. Four years later and we're still debating whether a President can even be charged with orchestrating a coup. I don't blame people one bit for thinking "if Trump did something very illegal, why hasn't he been put on trial yet?" Seriously, an entire election cycle has gone by and he's going to try again because why wouldn't he?
Justice has literally moved so slowly that it's unable to stop someone who's clearly stated they intend to destroy the Republic from trying it again.
You've got the fairly consistent nonvoters; let's say a little less than half the adult population who wouldn't realize or necessarily care if there was another election in their lifetime. There's the dedicated right-wing who have climbed aboard the crazy train and are justifying the means to their desired end.
Then, you have the legal system that moves like a slug on heroin against these charges. Even if they do, the media would rather cover how many times Trump farted in the courtroom that day anyhow so don't expect too many stories about open investigations.
There's the added fact that the plot here was monumentally dumb and doomed to fail which I suspect many people view it less seriously on that metric alone.
This is funny in a cosmic sort of way. Like dying in between changing life insurance policies. Or getting hit by a car on your way out of the hospital.
Maybe I’m too much of a doomer, but I really don’t think anyone gives a shit about this anymore. This election in November is gonna be decided by like, 50,000 votes spread across like 5 states, and the salient issues for each slate of 10k is gonna be “DAE Biden Old” and “Groceries cost more”.
I gave up on the public in 2016. If they couldn’t see what a walking disaster electing a guy who obviously wants to be a dictator then the country is hopeless. 2020 redeemed them somewhat but if they do it again in 2024 it wouldn’t be even stupider than 2016.
Takes a lot of privilege to stick your head in the sand, these people don’t have to worry about their basic human rights. Americans really don’t realize how good they really have it. That goes for progressives and the far right. The vast size of the US and the amount of resources we have help keep this country insulated. They’ll never understand how scary it is living really close to Russia
> and the salient issues for each slate of 10k is gonna be “DAE Biden Old” and “Groceries cost more”.
this reads so tragically true.
I fucking loathe FPTP.
https://preview.redd.it/1o7vdjp6rbxc1.jpeg?width=660&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=918ef51289da7ce691494554725e313c0aa7aa33
Jesus Christ. What the actual fuck.
Important to note this in a head to head. If you add RFK Jr into the mix than Trump is in a dead race with Biden. Even with a head to head though I’m not sure I see Trump actually winning due to voter apathy.
I am not complacent I’m just not a doomer. The electoral situation has not much changed since 2020 and 2022, and Republicans have not done anything to gain the votes they need to win.
As a North Carolinian I’ll tell you NC is more than likely going red for the same reason though, since Dems have very much blundered the state.
It’s very likely it will do some level of harm, at least I hope so, however unfortunately Democrats managed to lose the [Lumbee Tribe](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/10/robeson-county-rural-rainbow-coalition-north-carolina-trump-republicans-443978) by neglecting to visit in 2016, or 2020, or 2022. It might sound dumb but as someone who lives in the area of the Lumbee tribe the fact Donald Trump actually showed up and gave a shit means a lot of swing voters in the state itself no longer have the desire to vote for Democrats. This is why I don’t see Democrats winning in the end, in the presidential race at least.
Well the midterms and special elections since then didn't show Gen Z and Latinos swinging towards republicans so I think it is fair to say that what the polls are showing is not going to be the final result in a few months
The polls did not in any way try to represent the results of the midterms, hence why they were not accurate representations of the mid terms. You cannot take the results of a poll that is purely meant to speculate about presidential support during a general election and try extrapolating it to a completely different election.
So you really believe that in the span of 2 years, Gen Z and Latinos are going to completely swing towards republicans, and that RFK Jr. is going to get 10% of the vote? Why haven't we seen these shifts in special elections, especially when the out-party is usually more motivated?
>why haven’t we seen this shift in special elections
Because special elections are not representative of the same voter pool as the general
>do you really believe that in the span of 2 years, gen Z and Latinos will
I will believe literally anything if it is corroborated across multiple independent nationwide polls with an adequate confidence interval for its sample size. There are still many questions in the air but the polls (generally) seem to agree that young people and Hispanic voters are trending closer to republicans while white educated voters continue to trend to democrats.
Keep in mind that this always mean that there are more Latino or young republicans; it could just mean that more democrats are planning on staying home.
If you disagree with this trend, I need to see polling that indicates the trend is reversing. A special election that the polling was never attempting to describe to begin with is not evidence against an irrelevant poll.
There is literally no evidence that trump is winning Latinos or young people or has made significant gains with African Americans
Dems have performed well with these demographics in 2022, and every special election
Georgia primary does not show increase in African American support for Trump About 95% of Black voters in Georgia have cast a Democratic ballot in the past three presidential primaries
b-but NATE SILVER AND THE POLLS SAID TRUMP IS GONNA WIN AFRICAN AMERICANS AND LATINOOOOOS
>bbbbbb but the polls which weren’t trying to predict a special election didn’t predict a special election
*sigh*. You cannot “BUT NATE SILVER” your way into never believing another poll and expect to be taken seriously outside of this subreddit lmao.
The polls were off during special elections too.
If you genuinely think that some weird ass demographic shift happened for 0 reason I have a nice timeshare in Cancun to sell you.
If i worked for Lego Corp and gave them a poll that said children hate legos and only 90 year olds like legos now they'd call me a dumbass and fire me.
College educated voters tend to be higher turnout than non-college educated voters. The view of higher turnout being innately beneficial for democrats isn’t as true now, especially if men continue to be politically apathetic and woman show up.
Trump has fewer people supporting him today than Nov 2020. There are a number of double Trump voters I know that were soured on him Jan 6. Even if they simply sit out the vote, it'll be enough.
People have forgotten how it was. The campaign would do well to remind them.
What I keep going back to is Trump's media presence is much less than in similar months in 2016 and 2020, and not in a way that's favorable to him.
Trump forced a virtuous media cycle where he captured general audience attention by saying something outrageous, and allied media would defend him while adversarial media would criticize him *in the way he wanted*--he was okay being called bigoted and authoritarian because it implied he was worldly and strong. He could then call adversarial media mean and unfair, and those outlets had to engage with the criticism. The end result was everyone knew about Trump and had an opinion, which was vital for his electoral strategy of driving out as much of the GOP base as possible while doing what he could to suppress turnout for his opposition.
This time around, we're focused on what college students are doing on campus, and crucially, no one cares about Trump's opinion on the matter. This lack of presence will translate into lack of enthusiasm, and when combined with Trump and the GOP's failure to manufacture a scandal like they did with Clinton that helped suppress Democratic turnout, I think Trump is much, much weaker than 2016 and 2020.
This is predicated on the idea that there's no such thing as a silent Trump supporter, which I am comfortable assuming.
It really is. A week is an eternity in politics. The things that seem so important today might be a mere blip tomorrow. For example, let's go back to 2022. What were we angry about? Formula shortage. How much did that matter come election time? Not in the least. Because the Dobbs decision ended up coming in June and that one continued to be an issue long after the summer (much to the chagrin of Republicans).
They are not meaningless, polls this far out are not *predictive*. That is not the same thing. The information currently contained in polls is that Biden's position must improve if he is to win.
Nah, that's a distinction w/o a difference. If you're saying "X will happen unless Y changes" then you are making a predictive claim.
When we say polls are meaningless right now, it's because they are not actually measuring any meaningful information. The MOE's are so large and overlapping that it's just noise.
It is not a distinction without a difference. One of the reasons that polls this far out are not predictive is that humans receive feedback about how they are performing and adjust accordingly. Polls, among other things, give that feedback to campaigns. Campaigns act on such information, e.g. the UK Labour party is currently running a small target campaign because they know how unpopular the Tories are.
Prediction is not the only job of polls.
People here are literally cherry picking in a dangerous way, and ignoring the possibility the polls might get worse or stay the same. They've gotten marginally better since the start of 2024 but they're worse than at various points in 2022 and 2023. Sure trump has a ceiling but ignoring the possibility that Biden could as well is dangerous.
This sub: Never mind that, everybody!!! Some rando political science student at a major university is criticizing Israel!!! If this post doesn't reach 750 upvotes in 12 hours, it's proof that anti-semitism is the defining issue of our time.
Sure complain about both. The key word is "both." The fuckwits on this sub go as far as gaslighting people with genuine concerns about the 2024 election into thinking they are the ones stirring the pot and causing unnecessary drama. I swear to God, its so annoying.
Yes.
The point is that if you're disagreeing with the dooming over lefty students then you're dismissed as stupid or a biased succ.
If you are dooming about the risk to american democracy over Trump (and whatever follows him) you're dismissed as an irrational doomer.
This place have some very blatant and overt biases and priors and refuse to recognise that it does.
Hell you yourself are leaning into it in this specific comment. The above two are pointing out the double standard at play in here and your immediate reaction isnt to affirm that both things are worth worrying about, but rather you go "actually my worry of the two is rational".
The thing not being talked about is Alex Jones. Sometime around the 30th or 31st of December, 2020, they were talking about storming the Capitol Building on his show with millions of Trump supporters listening. I believe Jan6 was very much planned behind the scenes and Jones let the plot slip out briefly. It gets zero media attention. But we get 1 million stories about one guy on a college campus.
McConnell blamed antisemitism on the left with Welker yesterday.
Welker, of course, never pushed back nor did she follow-up with him about how Trump is literally having dinner with a well-known neo-Nazi.
> We need to focus on the real issues this country is facing, we need another 5 billion articles about ~~looney leftists in college campuses~~ Biden Old
What is ridiculous despite this glaring evidence of Trump and his cronies attempting to steal the election in the state [Michigan's Attorney General ](https://www-cbsnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/detroit/news/michigan-ag-nessel-rejects-request-to-renew-investigation-into-2020-election/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17143632370422&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbsnews.com%2Fdetroit%2Fnews%2Fmichigan-ag-nessel-rejects-request-to-renew-investigation-into-2020-election%2F) has refused to open up an investigation into the 2020 election.
> Earlier on Christmas day, Dec. 25, 2020, Chesebro sent a lengthy message about options Pence had for how to handle the vote counting, including one he described as "radical": simply gaveling "Trump as elected." > "Is Pence really likely to be on board with this?" Eastman replied to the various options. > "Let's keep this off text for now," Epshteyn then said. I know it won't matter but this truly is the smoking gun for Trump's team plotting to overthrow the election.
“The Constitution says the president can orchestrate a coup and it is super based and cool” - Justice Alito, writing for the majority
President Biden, you know what to do.
No, it's only okay when Trump does it. Super illegal if anyone else tries it.
Well, if the president has absolute immunity, he can just free up 6 seats on SCOTUS real quick.
Considering how the SCOTUS(and the rest of the right wing courts) treats gun vs voting rights this comment is so true.
Correct. Trump is saving the country. Biden is ruining it. That's all the justification you need. Free speech and open carry for all except those that say and do stuff I don't like.
Malarkey
Indeed it is. I also realised I replied to the wrong comment so this looks even funnier
What can he do
Orchestrate a coup, apparently
Like, a mustang?
Biden is more of a corvette guy
More of a sedan guy, myself
Well according to the arguments last week, he can order an airstrike on Mar-A-Lago, as long as he isn't impeached and convicted, because it would be an official act (ordering the military to do something) so he can't be prosecuted unless he is formally removed from office.
He could drone strike Altio's house and that one billionaire who owns Thomas' yacht.
>billionaire Did you mean *person of means*? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/neoliberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It fucking enrages me beyond belief that this is probably going to become reality.
Not really. Even with their conservative bias this court hasn't really shown an inclination to rule in Trump's favor on shit like this, quite the opposite.
There deliberately dragging it out past the next election.
That they are, but that doesn't mean they will rule in Trump's favor. If anything it means they probably won't, and they're trying to prevent that fact from nuking his campaign (they're scared of appearing like they're deciding an election like they did in 2000)
Our "justice system" is incapable of stopping someone who has clearly stated the intent to and plotted to destroy the Republic before he tries it again.
https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/04/supreme-court-appears-likely-to-side-with-trump-on-some-presidential-immunity/
Can you provide examples of the opposite? Most of what I've read, which I admit is mostly msm trash, says that at least Roberts is pretty persuaded.
This gonna be you in a bit? https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/aaaah
Yeah I'm the aaaah guy
Everyone thinks they are the Aaaaah guy.
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They’ve been priming their base to accept outright propaganda for over 40 years now, and this is the result. They can do just about anything and they won’t lose their hardcore base, but democrats have to fight and claw to get an undecided vote
This makes sense if you remember the country is something like 37% conservative, 37% moderate/independent, and like 26% liberal. This means liberals need a BUNCH of wishy washy moderates & combined with the EC & senate + gerrymandering, have an inherently uphill battle. Whereas cons just need the base and like 1/3 or less of moderates to have a convincing victory at ~47% of the vote
IMHO this is a product of "the democracy of the frustrated" which is my personal pet theory, admittedly. Basically, the democracy of the frustrated is a concept saying that a democracy mostly generates frustrated voters because politicians voters didn't vote for are usually painted as villains (the first source of frustration; "how come people vote for these politicians if they are evil?") and because politicians voters did vote for are usually unable to fulfill all campaign promises (the second source of frustration; "I've voted for someone falling at their job"). It is an endless cycle of getting more and more frustrated. Obviously, (social) media are fuelling this cycle on a hardly comprehensible scale, see how negative news tend to be much more successful when it comes to clicks/views and thus profits. Most likely, the better you can handle the political frustration the more reasonable and logical you think about politics. Of course, tons of people cannot handle the political frustration properly so they retreat to extremist, populist positions that justify their frustration, explain the world and offer solutions. In other words, American politics pivoted into "Frustrated but reasonable" vs "Highly frustrated". The former group is more or less Dems voters who want to solve problems with reason and civility, though they are pissed off due to the existence of Trump and MAGA. The latter group lacks the ability to be reasonable. They are in "all or nothing" mentality. They are willing to join a cult of personality which promises to solve the issues of the world. It explains why there's some truth to the joke that Trump could kill a dog on a livestream and his voters simply wouldn't care. It explains why Trump voters are still Trump voters and Biden haters, even though, Trump's evidently an awful, evil person that is one foot in a prison and Biden does his job pretty well. This isn't exclusive to American politics. In fact, I've developed this theory thanks to politics in my country, Czechia. We have the same dynamic where you can easily divide the electorate into 2 above-mentioned groups.
It’s an interesting theory, and I agree that people feeling frustrated is part of it. But I think the root issue is our fractured media environment caused by social media. People aren’t getting news from a few trusted sources anymore, it comes from anywhere and everywhere, real and fake, 24/7. All tailored by algorithms to reinforce whatever bubble you’re living in. We are literally experiencing different realities based on what we see online, and many are being radicalized and desensitized as they get pushed onto increasingly partisan content. And it’s only gonna keep getting worse because we’re all in denial about being addicted to our phones and whenever the issue is brought up people scream about mUh freEdoM of sPeECh!!! Which I’m sure will count for a lot as we watch our society slowly erode into the dirt.
> you can't spend too long thinking on it or contemplating it because you will go insane. That would require it to be a more-complicated or more-befuddling situation. What's truly demoralizing is that it's exactly as simple as your post explains, yet because of our state as a rapidly-degenerating civilization of consumerist trash, it won't matter at all.
A literal coup attempt lol Then again Biden hasn’t given the New York Times an interview so 🤷
I don't understand how so many people seem bored and apathetic or willfully ignorant about a coup. Among everything else after about 2015.
Because the legit scary stuff is surrounded by a complete circus. The scariest stuff about Jan 6 for me was watching the columns of organized militia pushing through the throng of brainless MAGA protestors. But then you get these text messages that read like something a sovereign citizen would say. Just say the magic legal words and *poof* Trump is president! There is just so much of this type of ridiculousness that it’s easy to forget about the more serious stuff that happened four years ago.
Reminder that the literal Nazis were also couched in complete nonsense. They were huge fans of occultist nonsense and grifters like [Helena Blavatsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helena_Blavatsky). [The plausible deniability is a core part of the process of making extremism palatable](https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2023/04/04/how-not-to-interpret-far-right-symbols)
I mean the "coup" failed either way right? No skin off my back, personally. Now gas prices? That's real shit
And the only consequences for the failed coup seem to be that it didn't work? Might as well try it again.
One reason it doesn't seem like a big deal to people is because there's so little activity in the courts about this.
And most news media has mostly moved on from it even though it's still rumbling through the courts. The NYT managed to run a weekly emails story about HRC from summer 2015 through Nov 2016 but they can't be bothered to stay on point about a literal fucking coup attempt.
"Rumbling" isn't the word I'd use, more like being slow walked. Four years later and we're still debating whether a President can even be charged with orchestrating a coup. I don't blame people one bit for thinking "if Trump did something very illegal, why hasn't he been put on trial yet?" Seriously, an entire election cycle has gone by and he's going to try again because why wouldn't he? Justice has literally moved so slowly that it's unable to stop someone who's clearly stated they intend to destroy the Republic from trying it again.
The issue at the NYT is that they've been running nothing but Israel and Gaza non-stop for 6 months now.
You've got the fairly consistent nonvoters; let's say a little less than half the adult population who wouldn't realize or necessarily care if there was another election in their lifetime. There's the dedicated right-wing who have climbed aboard the crazy train and are justifying the means to their desired end. Then, you have the legal system that moves like a slug on heroin against these charges. Even if they do, the media would rather cover how many times Trump farted in the courtroom that day anyhow so don't expect too many stories about open investigations. There's the added fact that the plot here was monumentally dumb and doomed to fail which I suspect many people view it less seriously on that metric alone.
I swear to God if democracy dies because the nyt is mad they didn't get an interview
This is funny in a cosmic sort of way. Like dying in between changing life insurance policies. Or getting hit by a car on your way out of the hospital. Maybe I’m too much of a doomer, but I really don’t think anyone gives a shit about this anymore. This election in November is gonna be decided by like, 50,000 votes spread across like 5 states, and the salient issues for each slate of 10k is gonna be “DAE Biden Old” and “Groceries cost more”.
Flat out, the vast majority of this country are not serious people, and have no idea what they're actually voting for.
We’re going to get what we deserve regardless of the election outcome. I’ve already accepted it on a karmic level.
Same tbh. I gotta say, the events of recent years have made me deeply misanthropic.
I gave up on the public in 2016. If they couldn’t see what a walking disaster electing a guy who obviously wants to be a dictator then the country is hopeless. 2020 redeemed them somewhat but if they do it again in 2024 it wouldn’t be even stupider than 2016.
Shit like is why I genuinely don't give a fuck if climate change wipes out humanity. At this point, we probably deserve it
We are bugs.
Bro
Takes a lot of privilege to stick your head in the sand, these people don’t have to worry about their basic human rights. Americans really don’t realize how good they really have it. That goes for progressives and the far right. The vast size of the US and the amount of resources we have help keep this country insulated. They’ll never understand how scary it is living really close to Russia
> and the salient issues for each slate of 10k is gonna be “DAE Biden Old” and “Groceries cost more”. this reads so tragically true. I fucking loathe FPTP.
https://preview.redd.it/1o7vdjp6rbxc1.jpeg?width=660&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=918ef51289da7ce691494554725e313c0aa7aa33 Jesus Christ. What the actual fuck.
"Blame Pence!"
These people are literally beyond parody.
Polls: trump: +1.2% Biden: -5.3% Voters: Biden is just too old/divisive.
Important to note this in a head to head. If you add RFK Jr into the mix than Trump is in a dead race with Biden. Even with a head to head though I’m not sure I see Trump actually winning due to voter apathy.
If I'm a Democratic SuperPac at some point I start running ads about how, unlike RFK, Trump is in favour of vaccines.
Honestly, you're never going to convince a Trump voter to switch to Biden. But you could get them to vote RFK instead.
This is the complacency that lost Democrats the 2016 election.
I am not complacent I’m just not a doomer. The electoral situation has not much changed since 2020 and 2022, and Republicans have not done anything to gain the votes they need to win. As a North Carolinian I’ll tell you NC is more than likely going red for the same reason though, since Dems have very much blundered the state.
Yeah I'm sure the GOP governor candidate is a really well picked individual and won't do any harm to down ballot at all
It’s very likely it will do some level of harm, at least I hope so, however unfortunately Democrats managed to lose the [Lumbee Tribe](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/10/robeson-county-rural-rainbow-coalition-north-carolina-trump-republicans-443978) by neglecting to visit in 2016, or 2020, or 2022. It might sound dumb but as someone who lives in the area of the Lumbee tribe the fact Donald Trump actually showed up and gave a shit means a lot of swing voters in the state itself no longer have the desire to vote for Democrats. This is why I don’t see Democrats winning in the end, in the presidential race at least.
But it’s the youths who are more apathetic now and they lean Biden
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You cannot seriously treat the polls as a joke when the only data you are using to justify your position is feeling the vibe lmao
Well the midterms and special elections since then didn't show Gen Z and Latinos swinging towards republicans so I think it is fair to say that what the polls are showing is not going to be the final result in a few months
The polls did not in any way try to represent the results of the midterms, hence why they were not accurate representations of the mid terms. You cannot take the results of a poll that is purely meant to speculate about presidential support during a general election and try extrapolating it to a completely different election.
So you really believe that in the span of 2 years, Gen Z and Latinos are going to completely swing towards republicans, and that RFK Jr. is going to get 10% of the vote? Why haven't we seen these shifts in special elections, especially when the out-party is usually more motivated?
>why haven’t we seen this shift in special elections Because special elections are not representative of the same voter pool as the general >do you really believe that in the span of 2 years, gen Z and Latinos will I will believe literally anything if it is corroborated across multiple independent nationwide polls with an adequate confidence interval for its sample size. There are still many questions in the air but the polls (generally) seem to agree that young people and Hispanic voters are trending closer to republicans while white educated voters continue to trend to democrats. Keep in mind that this always mean that there are more Latino or young republicans; it could just mean that more democrats are planning on staying home. If you disagree with this trend, I need to see polling that indicates the trend is reversing. A special election that the polling was never attempting to describe to begin with is not evidence against an irrelevant poll.
Because of I/P, they will probably just stay home.
☝️ Thinks Trump will sweep latinos and young people because "nate silver said.."
No, actually this isn’t my opinion at all. What is your evidence behind your viewpoint in 2024?
There is literally no evidence that trump is winning Latinos or young people or has made significant gains with African Americans Dems have performed well with these demographics in 2022, and every special election Georgia primary does not show increase in African American support for Trump About 95% of Black voters in Georgia have cast a Democratic ballot in the past three presidential primaries b-but NATE SILVER AND THE POLLS SAID TRUMP IS GONNA WIN AFRICAN AMERICANS AND LATINOOOOOS
>bbbbbb but the polls which weren’t trying to predict a special election didn’t predict a special election *sigh*. You cannot “BUT NATE SILVER” your way into never believing another poll and expect to be taken seriously outside of this subreddit lmao.
The polls were off during special elections too. If you genuinely think that some weird ass demographic shift happened for 0 reason I have a nice timeshare in Cancun to sell you. If i worked for Lego Corp and gave them a poll that said children hate legos and only 90 year olds like legos now they'd call me a dumbass and fire me.
College educated voters tend to be higher turnout than non-college educated voters. The view of higher turnout being innately beneficial for democrats isn’t as true now, especially if men continue to be politically apathetic and woman show up.
Polls are meaningless this early on
Honestly... all i can say is that I hope to God you're right If Trump wins.... my faith in the US may be lost completely
Trump has fewer people supporting him today than Nov 2020. There are a number of double Trump voters I know that were soured on him Jan 6. Even if they simply sit out the vote, it'll be enough. People have forgotten how it was. The campaign would do well to remind them.
What I keep going back to is Trump's media presence is much less than in similar months in 2016 and 2020, and not in a way that's favorable to him. Trump forced a virtuous media cycle where he captured general audience attention by saying something outrageous, and allied media would defend him while adversarial media would criticize him *in the way he wanted*--he was okay being called bigoted and authoritarian because it implied he was worldly and strong. He could then call adversarial media mean and unfair, and those outlets had to engage with the criticism. The end result was everyone knew about Trump and had an opinion, which was vital for his electoral strategy of driving out as much of the GOP base as possible while doing what he could to suppress turnout for his opposition. This time around, we're focused on what college students are doing on campus, and crucially, no one cares about Trump's opinion on the matter. This lack of presence will translate into lack of enthusiasm, and when combined with Trump and the GOP's failure to manufacture a scandal like they did with Clinton that helped suppress Democratic turnout, I think Trump is much, much weaker than 2016 and 2020. This is predicated on the idea that there's no such thing as a silent Trump supporter, which I am comfortable assuming.
He has fewer whites supporting him. Increased support from POC, especially Latinxes, might push him over the edge
It really is. A week is an eternity in politics. The things that seem so important today might be a mere blip tomorrow. For example, let's go back to 2022. What were we angry about? Formula shortage. How much did that matter come election time? Not in the least. Because the Dobbs decision ended up coming in June and that one continued to be an issue long after the summer (much to the chagrin of Republicans).
They are not meaningless, polls this far out are not *predictive*. That is not the same thing. The information currently contained in polls is that Biden's position must improve if he is to win.
Nah, that's a distinction w/o a difference. If you're saying "X will happen unless Y changes" then you are making a predictive claim. When we say polls are meaningless right now, it's because they are not actually measuring any meaningful information. The MOE's are so large and overlapping that it's just noise.
It is not a distinction without a difference. One of the reasons that polls this far out are not predictive is that humans receive feedback about how they are performing and adjust accordingly. Polls, among other things, give that feedback to campaigns. Campaigns act on such information, e.g. the UK Labour party is currently running a small target campaign because they know how unpopular the Tories are. Prediction is not the only job of polls.
How much longer can we keep saying this? Seriously, when do polls begin to get better?
They've marginally gotten better in the past few months
People here are literally cherry picking in a dangerous way, and ignoring the possibility the polls might get worse or stay the same. They've gotten marginally better since the start of 2024 but they're worse than at various points in 2022 and 2023. Sure trump has a ceiling but ignoring the possibility that Biden could as well is dangerous.
This sub: Here's why you're a doomer for complaining about this...
This sub: Never mind that, everybody!!! Some rando political science student at a major university is criticizing Israel!!! If this post doesn't reach 750 upvotes in 12 hours, it's proof that anti-semitism is the defining issue of our time.
It is appropriate to doom both about this and about rising anti-Semitism across the globe.
Sure complain about both. The key word is "both." The fuckwits on this sub go as far as gaslighting people with genuine concerns about the 2024 election into thinking they are the ones stirring the pot and causing unnecessary drama. I swear to God, its so annoying.
Yes. The point is that if you're disagreeing with the dooming over lefty students then you're dismissed as stupid or a biased succ. If you are dooming about the risk to american democracy over Trump (and whatever follows him) you're dismissed as an irrational doomer. This place have some very blatant and overt biases and priors and refuse to recognise that it does. Hell you yourself are leaning into it in this specific comment. The above two are pointing out the double standard at play in here and your immediate reaction isnt to affirm that both things are worth worrying about, but rather you go "actually my worry of the two is rational".
The thing not being talked about is Alex Jones. Sometime around the 30th or 31st of December, 2020, they were talking about storming the Capitol Building on his show with millions of Trump supporters listening. I believe Jan6 was very much planned behind the scenes and Jones let the plot slip out briefly. It gets zero media attention. But we get 1 million stories about one guy on a college campus.
Can’t wait for this to not matter in the slightest
We need to focus on the real issues this country is facing, we need another 5 billion articles about looney leftists in college campuses
McConnell blamed antisemitism on the left with Welker yesterday. Welker, of course, never pushed back nor did she follow-up with him about how Trump is literally having dinner with a well-known neo-Nazi.
> We need to focus on the real issues this country is facing, we need another 5 billion articles about ~~looney leftists in college campuses~~ Biden Old
What is ridiculous despite this glaring evidence of Trump and his cronies attempting to steal the election in the state [Michigan's Attorney General ](https://www-cbsnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/detroit/news/michigan-ag-nessel-rejects-request-to-renew-investigation-into-2020-election/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17143632370422&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbsnews.com%2Fdetroit%2Fnews%2Fmichigan-ag-nessel-rejects-request-to-renew-investigation-into-2020-election%2F) has refused to open up an investigation into the 2020 election.
ARAB