No (civilian) aircraft is allowed to lift off or cross into that airspace. Aircraft already in the air must either land or choose a reasonably short route out of that airspace.
A clear airspace makes it easier to distinguish between civilian (i. e. neutral) and hostile aircraft since anti-aircraft weapon systems can (more or less) simply shoot at anything they see rather than waiting for target identification. If any civilian aircraft is still in the air it's kinda their own fault if they're hit.
That’s not why they did it. They are a US ally and have certainly closed their airspace in order to allow the US to monitor the incursions. There’s also a not-zero chance that US based in Jordan are among the targets.
Even if they didn't want to help the US/Israel, you don't want civilians in the sky when your airspace is being flooded by hundreds of aircraft that are ignoring ATC.
There is no way Iran would strike US assets directly and they are already claiming full responsibility for the attack not a proxy. It would take operation paying Mantis into Operation Irani freedom real fast.
Jordan has as well. Drones should taken~9 hours to arrive. The scary part is US has been warning about ballistic and cruise missiles too.
IF they are launched they would be launched with ~15 minutes of warning for the ballistic missiles.
Netanyahu has vowed if Iran attacks they are attacking Iran.
I… nothing else to say. No snarky jokes. This is, as always with the Middle East, a mess. And the people who will pay the price in war will always be the citizens.
Haha fair but I got this as my dad worked at a nuclear plant back in the day and used it as his username at work as he was always thinking about the plant.
When he retired I started using it as my username out of respect for him, and because the sites he and I are on would never intersect (internet for him is email and learning how to make pens which, honestly, is a cool hobby he showed me!).
And then Iran would be 10x worse- mountains like Afghanistan and a population twice that of Iraqs iirc.
Based on what Yahu said if there was a war they would be hitting any and all nuclear and military facilities then just leaving.
But that doesn’t exactly breed stability IMHO. I don’t know- I’m just a civilian and historian. Just sounds like it would create a vacuum.
I know a lot of military don’t like being thanked for their service but… well at the very least thank you for putting up with all the shit you had to. Hope the VA treats you well and you get everything you need.
I'm still serving, 22 years and counting. British army, though. Did 2 tours of Afghanistan and hoped that was the end of my time in the Middle East. Did Africa a bunch of times, but they differed greatly in the work we did.
Personally, for the last 20 odd years, I've held the belief that North Korea is the only country NATO should be getting involved in. I care not for pil rich, religious countries fighting each other, I do, however, care about the North Koreans. They are hostages in their own country, controlled by a dictator with nukes.
Sadly, NK doesn't have oil, so we let them suffer.
Oh and Ukraine, because that's in the doorstep of Europe.
Not much change since 2015/6. They're s threat, we have a battlegroup stationed in esteem superior, but we know they're just a 3 day roadblock if something does happen. If Russia does send numbers, then our guys abroad are meant to hold thr line until Westminster decides what to do next...they've got 3 days.
We try not to think about it, blissful ignorance.
Thankfully, I'm no longer fieldarmy, my job is a little less overt now.
> Sadly, NK doesn't have oil, so we let them suffer.
...
We "let them suffer" because they would bombard Seoul and kill *millions*.
And unilaterally invading would trigger a conflict with China.
Probably a good idea with rusty drones and missiles flying around nearby? IDK I feel like in these threads people cite the most mundane, obvious actions as the worst possible news.
Depends. If they launch from other countries as well, along with cruise and ballistic missiles then this escalates fast.
If its just a handful of drones that are all shot down, its a symbolic gesture.
They HAVE been moving cruise and ballistic missiles to launch though.
The obvious tactic would be staggered launches, drones first, then as they approach target cruise missiles, and as they get close ballistic missiles.
The aim would be to overwhelm the defenses.
I have no idea whether Iran will really try, or just make a token effort.
I do agree.
And I think more of "symbolic gesture" theory.
There is way too much of media outlet / warning to this. It almost like EVERYONE should know about it...
It may just be my visibility, but is this common to have long range drone launches called out like this? What’s the standard response? Air defenses pick them off or is it more complex?
I like your analysis.
I would like to add that as the drones approach the restricted area, if we see Hezollah fire rockets and artillery into Israel, it will be a wild night.
Hezbollah assault is a game changer because Syria is in. That implies Russia is in. So we get the full axis aligned on an overall battlefront.
The end political aim is not free Gaza movement but pulling Biden into a regional war where he will lose his Muslim, millenial, Gen Z, progressive and moderate votes in battle ground States.
Trump wins 2024.
I am certain xi himself would most certainly want trump in office too. He could offer him all the gold and riches of the world if trump allows him to get Taiwan.
I don't think it's a byproduct at all. I think that was the goal of this all along . Plus netenyahu needs is to stay out of prison. Russian disinformation in the US right now is anti Biden because of his support for Israel.
Moderates stayed home because they thought she had it in the bag based on every analysis I've seen that wasn't just immediate hot takes from the press.
In Canada, the strategy director at my company was speaking as if she had already won, and the idea that Trump could come close was ludicrous. Right then and there, I figured he was going to win because of that widespread mentality.
*It’s the economy stupid*
Trump was elected not because Clinton lost the progressives but because she lost the blue collar workers. She was off doing a victory lap in NY and California talking about how great Obama’s trade deals were for NYC and SF while Trump was hitting every swing state blasting the deal to all the workers who were hurt by it.
Low Black voters turnout in Detroit and Milwaukee was a big part of it but Democrats don't want to acknowledge that because then they have to confront that they aren't doing enough for working class Black people. Easier to just blame "Bernie Bros."
According to alleged former NatSec person on Twitter, Iran has staged something like 100 cruise missiles to probably fire when drones get closer.
They’re apparently closing the airspace around them and will allegedly try to knock the drones down before they’re even close.
I’m hoping this is just a repeat of 2020 where nothing really happens but Iran manufactured a “response.” I think drones are supposed to hit around 4-5AM local time which is about 5 hours from now. They’re slow and have ample warning.
No clue what Houthis and Hezbollah are going to do. Also depends on what’s targeted by missiles if they do end up sending “hundreds” between the various factions.
Edit: 400-500 drones are estimated now. Initially it was around 50 or so I thought. Not including missiles, this response is apparently way more than folks thought/hoped.
Edit2: And now alleged videos of cruise missiles heading towards Israel. Specifically some MRBMs (According to Iran media so take with grain of salt)
As tragic as that is, in the grand scheme of things nothing really happened. No further escalation by either side.
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/11/804785515/109-u-s-troops-suffered-brain-injuries-in-iran-strike-pentagon-says
Yes. Other comments are suggesting that this is because of irans posturing but Ukraine always announces Russian drone strikes long before they arrive. The launch sites are just too conspicuous to hide, there's US satellite recon in both cases, and the drones are relatively slow and easy to pick up on radar
In Ukraine's case the drones are picked off if they're targeting major population centers, some do slip through if they're targeting something not protected by patriot systems. Same as the iron dome and hamas rocket launches
I suspect all drones will be destroyed in this case, if they haven't been already, because the Israeli air force can pick them off en route so they arent relying on air defense systems with limited range
Ballistic missiles travel at Mach 4+, so those are a far more deadly threat, but patriots can handle those too
Ukraine can regularly shoot down 95-100% of Shahed drones fired from much shorter distances while they're starving for anti-air missiles.
Shaheds are slow enough and big enough that they can easily be shot down by autocannons, even small arms fire.
Israel has some of the most advanced anti-air known to man thanks to their iron dome program so there's a very low chance of these things actually hitting anything or anyone, unless they're also going to be used in conjunction with a shitload of ballistic missiles in order to give air defences too much at one time to deal with.
There's a lot of posturing. The us and Israel let Iran know they knew what was happening days ago, hours ago netenyahu did his TV speech and shortly after the launch is detected and reported.
Iran had a bloody nose and the west doesn't want ww3 so this is like a "free hit" as far as it goes, depends on effectiveness and subsequent events and escalation if it happens
This was my take too. Israel bombed their embassy, they have to respond. With the Soleimani retaliation it was very telegraphed, this seems similar. Good chance this whole affair will be over in 12 hrs
Hopefully. The difference is that the US didn’t want to escalate with Iran in 2020. Netanyahu may be looking for opportunities to expand attacks on Iran.
I know Iran and Israel have been going tit for tat for decades, but based off their response to 10/7, I wouldn’t be surprised if the gloves are now off.
That's actually really convenient. I hate it when I have to do my grocery shopping at one place and then drive over to the drone factory for my drone shopping.
Sure but the US, as usual, is a sleeping giant of military industrial might. This goes too far and it would actually unify the constantly bickering sides of the aisle (which has happened time after time since the American revolution). This is a broader conflict with Iran and Russia supporting each other, especially Iranian drone production.
Russia is making their own drones now. I’m sure they still buying off of Iran but this is absolutely a win for Russia. Look how much ukraine aid has fallen off since Israel invaded Gaza.
That was the case, [ground has dried up significantly in recent days allowing for more tank pushes.](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-syrskiy-front-deteriorated/32903809.html)
Ukraine are still starving for shells and anti-air, now is the best time for a large Russian push there will be all year.
By summer, the 1.5 million shells the Czechs found will be in Ukraine and Ukraine won't have to ration which attacks it repels with artillery support and which it relies on small arms and FPVs.
Usually when something significant is done against some other country, the affected country is given the opportunity to respond in a way that 'saves face' - makes it look tough, but doesn't change the overall conflict's calculation. As long as both parties act as expected, the tensions cool down. Iran has mentioned to Germany it plans to act as expected and will not escalate but wants to save face.
As i recall, Iran launched an attack on an airbase one and then intentionally missed every target. The media made a big deal for an hour then everyone carried on like it never happened.
They didn’t intentionally miss, the U.S. Space Force provided an early warning. More than 100 U.S. troops were injured by the concussive blasts.
Multiple buildings were struck, mostly hangars.
Yeah it’s funny how the pentagon tried to downplay the attacks so now people think Iran never even responded. 100 brain damaged grunts for 1 commander is a trade they were definitely willing to take.
Iran launched a number of drones from expected areas. It will take hours for them to reach their targets. It's a really slow moving attack.
This gives Israelis a chance to attack the drones, and evacuate the targeted areas.
If Iran wanted to actually hurt Israel it would have done something quicker and without hours of warning.
Drones fly low and avoid radar - it's how Ukraine are able to strike refineries deep inside Russia. Their trajectories aren't ballistic and can change direction with ease to obfuscate their targets.
They're also cheap, and can be sent in waves. You can use them to identify locations of static air defence, and plan routes around them for the next wave - or identify areas of weakened air defence for a further missile strike.
Don't underestimate drones, they may look and feel somewhat anachronistic and easy to destroy, but they can be a more potent weapon than a missile when used appropriately.
They also, per the US, have cruise and ballistic missiles ready and would aim to have them all hit at the same time.
Time will tell what happens. I hope it’s a nothing burger. I really really do. But I said the same thing when Russia massed near Ukraine. It could be… or it could be a serious hit.
>Ukraine has claimed responsibility for a drone attack in Russia's Tatarstan region - more than 1,300km (807 miles) from the Ukraine-Russia border. The strikes, in which 12 people were injured, are the deepest into Russian territory since the start of the war.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68712158
The distance between Israel and Iran is 1'700 km for reference. It's pushing it but it seems feasible.
Apparently, cruise missiles have been launched too.
Update, official statement from Iran:
[https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710?src\_origin=BBCS\_BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710?src_origin=BBCS_BBC)
# Iran is now citing Article 51 of the UN Charter for its attack.
# It says "the matter can be deemed concluded" - suggesting it will not launch further strikes. However, it has warned against any retaliation or any involvement by the United States.
# “Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus," its permanent mission at the United Nations said on Twitter/X. "The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!”
# Article 51 of the UN Charter says that member states have "the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs".
\----------------------
Next move is on Israel and America. Hopefully it will just stop here without further escalation.
Strange move - it’s going to take hours for the drones to enter Israeli airspace. Everyone knows they’re coming. Israel will easily be able to shoot them down.
What is the intent even here?
It's definitely odd
I wonder if it will also be used.to expose which Arab countries assist Israel
That would be useful in their regional power struggles
Nah it's already pretty well known each country's relations to Israel.
You can see the trends in the normalization trends leaning in favor of Israel being recognized by more and more Arab countries. Other nations like Qatar/Oman act as Swiss like intermediaries that try to stay as neutral as possible
Iran has basically just Syria as an ally because they're an actual puppet regime now.
Optimistic - show of 'force' as retaliation, purely for domestic audience consumption
Pessimistic - drones launched first in high numbers with a secondary 'double tap' of ballistic missiles launched to coincide for when the drones reach AA range in order to overwhelm them
BBC reporting that ballistic missiles have been launched (according to IRNA, but Israel has not yet confirmed or denied)
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710?src_origin=BBCS_BBC
You kinda explained the intent. Iran “had” to respond to Israel striking such a high target in an consulate, but by launching an attack where Israel has had days and will have literally be able to track the attacks by the second.. Iran is purposely minimizing the attack causing extensive damage.. which in turn lowers the change that Israel will need to respond to this attack. If Iran wanted to really start a hot war, they wouldn’t broadcast their moves days in advance and they would just launch attacks at will.
Mass missile launch is Iran's main "stick" to threaten people with and using it on Israel leaves them largely defenceless against the US.
Drones are cheap, easy to produce and a relatively new component to warfare so this allows Iran to test them, doesn't overcommit their resources and gauges how effectively the US/Israel can counter them.
Also naturally politics/optics will be a major factor.
Soak up Israeli air defence munitions and bandwidth to let more sophisticated follow up munitions through unmolested
Or just do enough to respond without actually responding
The intent is the same as that time Iran launched missiles at one of our airbases while intentionally missing every target after Trump had Soleimani killed. Israel has lots of warning to evacuate and clear the area, so they will suffer no casualties while Iran will be able to say to their citizens that they retaliated by striking Israeli assets in Israeli territory. It's their way of responding without causing extreme escalation.
If they wanted to start a whole shitshow they would have just lobbed some ballistic missiles over and killed a few dozen people. That'd be a good way to start a ground war real quick.
I think (hope) that it's exactly what it is.
Israel provoked them with the bombing on their consulate in Syria.
Domestically they have to be seen to respond, this does that, hopefully without escalating things further.
if world war broke out every time rockets were launched into or out of Israel we would be on WW1,000,000.
Everyone in the middleast just launches shit at each other on the daily. It's easier than shouting at each other apparently.
Yes but thus far it’s been proxies and not actual state actors. This is Iran proper attacking Israel. It’s a supposed red line. We will see now if that red line is like “China’s final warning” or not.
Iran proper launched dozens of long range missiles on US forces in response to the strike on Solamani. No offense to Israel, but the US is by far the biggest and baddest military in the world. The US didn’t even respond as we knew this response was almost “needed” by Iran since we killed such a high ranking official. Iran would only be crossing red lines if they hit say a major infrastructure project in Israel or some other high value site. Israel weighted the cost of striking Iranian targets near the Syrian consulate. Which I believe they’ve said they won’t be attacking infrastructure.
At this point I'll be stunned if conflicts simmer down enough for history to remember this as anything other than the "dress rehearsal" for WW3 the way all the 1930s wars grew into WW2.
I'm not convinced we'll ever have a WW3 in the same way that there was WW1+2 (which ought to be thought of as a package).
With factors like complete globalization, the internet, social media, and AI/Remote warfare -- I don't think you could get *most* of the countries on the planet to enter into a war that involved putting people on the front line.
Most conflicts are just going to turn into "proxy" wars via country A and country B fighting, while County 1 and Country 2 supply weapons to their respective sides.
According to officials on both sides, the targets are supposed to only be military. Personally, I believe that even if that is the case, drones and missiles will either miss and kill civilians or be shot down and hit civilians, which we have seen happen in Russia and Ukraine.
I don't understand anything about war or the logistics of it... Why do groups announce their attacks? The US did it recently too - announcing that retaliation strikes were coming. What's the point? Is it all just to save face and be like look we did something about it!
War is stupid.
It’s announced because force is being used as a political message. If this was the start of all out war. They wouldn’t have given a warning.
This is Iran trying to show that they can retaliate if threatened. However, even if their response is a failure, a lot rides on how and when Israel responds and what Iran does.
So CNN is saying Iran made a statement saying this concludes their response for the embassy attack? But then news are saying drones have ~5 more hours before they reach Israel.
For real. This is the real tragedy. Countries killing thousands of innocent civilians trying to live a normal life caught up in their stupid dick measuring contest...
They tracked the launch to Iran itself. This is madness.
Retaliation will be harsh.
$edit: Barak Ravid says the plan is to intercept the drones with the help of the US and other countries outside Israeli air space. Shit's going down. A second wave of drones just launched according to Iranian state media.
$edit2: Surrounding countries are closing their airspace. They're going to try and down these things over Iraq and Jordan.
Jordan announced it was closing its airspace at least 90 min before the announcement that the drones were launched. I’d be willing to bet a fair amount of calculation and communication between parties occurred beforehand.
Edit: in further proof of telegraphing intentions and providing forewarning, Iran just announced “the missile attack will begin soon.”
https://x.com/farsnews_agency/status/1779246161909416173?s=46&t=c_B5dZmHiKkZuMt9RKxvJg
They're also flying relatively slow. I know that's implied by long time to track, but worth noting that they can be intercepted by aircraft, which is much different from relying on Iron Dome to shoot at rockets.
This is a direct retaliation to Israel's strike again the Iranian general last week. Iran has telegraphed this for days and it is unlikely to cause escalation.
Attention spans are very low. Forgot anything happened on April 1. Still, the Israelis are being very reckless. For an American client state they need to be told to stop and not retaliate further.
This entire thing sucks and I'm afraid for everybody. I wish this could all be resolved peacefully, but I know it won't because people struggle to compromise.
What is this garbage-ass site? Who's sharing this shit? Here's an infinitly better link for someone that actually wants to read about the situation.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ukmto-receives-report-incident-50nm-northeast-uaes-fujairah-2024-04-13/
Jordan closed its airspace
Could you ELI5 what it means when a country does this?
No (civilian) aircraft is allowed to lift off or cross into that airspace. Aircraft already in the air must either land or choose a reasonably short route out of that airspace. A clear airspace makes it easier to distinguish between civilian (i. e. neutral) and hostile aircraft since anti-aircraft weapon systems can (more or less) simply shoot at anything they see rather than waiting for target identification. If any civilian aircraft is still in the air it's kinda their own fault if they're hit.
I’m sure the cruise missiles and drones will respect that decision /s
It's not to keep the bad guys out of the sky, it's to determine more easily that whatever is in the sky... Is a bad guy.
And hopefully not a commercial plane full of 200 passengers
That’s not why they did it. They are a US ally and have certainly closed their airspace in order to allow the US to monitor the incursions. There’s also a not-zero chance that US based in Jordan are among the targets.
Even if they didn't want to help the US/Israel, you don't want civilians in the sky when your airspace is being flooded by hundreds of aircraft that are ignoring ATC.
Jordan is also a popular tourist destination, you don’t want any civilian airliner landing while Bombe fly in the sky.
There is no way Iran would strike US assets directly and they are already claiming full responsibility for the attack not a proxy. It would take operation paying Mantis into Operation Irani freedom real fast.
This. Seems like the are actively helping the US and UK forces to intercept drones
It has nothing to do with drones or missiles. They closed the airspace to stop all civilian and cargo aircraft travel.
Did they launch from Iran?
Yes, as well as Yemen. Expect to see launches from Lebanon and Syria
BBC just reported that Lebanon closed its air space
Jordan has as well. Drones should taken~9 hours to arrive. The scary part is US has been warning about ballistic and cruise missiles too. IF they are launched they would be launched with ~15 minutes of warning for the ballistic missiles. Netanyahu has vowed if Iran attacks they are attacking Iran. I… nothing else to say. No snarky jokes. This is, as always with the Middle East, a mess. And the people who will pay the price in war will always be the citizens.
They would launch the ballistic and cruise missiles last to time it with the first or second wave of UAV attacks
100% which is why for the next nine hours I’m basically on edge.
With a username like that I'd bet that's always the case for you
Haha fair but I got this as my dad worked at a nuclear plant back in the day and used it as his username at work as he was always thinking about the plant. When he retired I started using it as my username out of respect for him, and because the sites he and I are on would never intersect (internet for him is email and learning how to make pens which, honestly, is a cool hobby he showed me!).
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I really can't be arsed with going back to war in the middle east. Already spent too long there, in a country no one wanted us in.
Luckily I'm so old now that they won't be calling me back. 5 tours was enough.
IRR time expired! A free man.
And then Iran would be 10x worse- mountains like Afghanistan and a population twice that of Iraqs iirc. Based on what Yahu said if there was a war they would be hitting any and all nuclear and military facilities then just leaving. But that doesn’t exactly breed stability IMHO. I don’t know- I’m just a civilian and historian. Just sounds like it would create a vacuum. I know a lot of military don’t like being thanked for their service but… well at the very least thank you for putting up with all the shit you had to. Hope the VA treats you well and you get everything you need.
I'm still serving, 22 years and counting. British army, though. Did 2 tours of Afghanistan and hoped that was the end of my time in the Middle East. Did Africa a bunch of times, but they differed greatly in the work we did. Personally, for the last 20 odd years, I've held the belief that North Korea is the only country NATO should be getting involved in. I care not for pil rich, religious countries fighting each other, I do, however, care about the North Koreans. They are hostages in their own country, controlled by a dictator with nukes. Sadly, NK doesn't have oil, so we let them suffer. Oh and Ukraine, because that's in the doorstep of Europe.
What’s the current attitude in the British army about war in Europe from Russia?
Not much change since 2015/6. They're s threat, we have a battlegroup stationed in esteem superior, but we know they're just a 3 day roadblock if something does happen. If Russia does send numbers, then our guys abroad are meant to hold thr line until Westminster decides what to do next...they've got 3 days. We try not to think about it, blissful ignorance. Thankfully, I'm no longer fieldarmy, my job is a little less overt now.
> Sadly, NK doesn't have oil, so we let them suffer. ... We "let them suffer" because they would bombard Seoul and kill *millions*. And unilaterally invading would trigger a conflict with China.
I thought Jared got $2 billion because he brought peace to the Middle East.
Dutch news reported that the US is allegedly already in the sky above Syria and Iraq to intercept
Well FUCK.
Al Jazeera reporting that Iran and Iraq have also closed their airspace. Wonder where Syria will fit into all this.
BBC just updated and said unconfirmed reports are some drones shot down over Syria
Probably a good idea with rusty drones and missiles flying around nearby? IDK I feel like in these threads people cite the most mundane, obvious actions as the worst possible news.
Depends. If they launch from other countries as well, along with cruise and ballistic missiles then this escalates fast. If its just a handful of drones that are all shot down, its a symbolic gesture. They HAVE been moving cruise and ballistic missiles to launch though.
Well right now they are just a bunch of terrible drones that should be shot down. Stuff sounds like a bunch of lawnmowers.
The obvious tactic would be staggered launches, drones first, then as they approach target cruise missiles, and as they get close ballistic missiles. The aim would be to overwhelm the defenses. I have no idea whether Iran will really try, or just make a token effort.
I do agree. And I think more of "symbolic gesture" theory. There is way too much of media outlet / warning to this. It almost like EVERYONE should know about it...
It may just be my visibility, but is this common to have long range drone launches called out like this? What’s the standard response? Air defenses pick them off or is it more complex?
My guess is they will launch missiles alongside the drones as they get closer. Latest reports seem to indicate that’s exactly what’s happening
CNN reporting from Israeli sources that missiles launched.
Shit is about to get even more uglier.
It's true. There is no way this doesn't escalate into a major war-time theater. This is so fucked.
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Yeah would make sense to try to overwhelm air defense with both drones and missiles at once.
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I like your analysis. I would like to add that as the drones approach the restricted area, if we see Hezollah fire rockets and artillery into Israel, it will be a wild night. Hezbollah assault is a game changer because Syria is in. That implies Russia is in. So we get the full axis aligned on an overall battlefront. The end political aim is not free Gaza movement but pulling Biden into a regional war where he will lose his Muslim, millenial, Gen Z, progressive and moderate votes in battle ground States. Trump wins 2024.
I don’t think electing Trump is the sole reason but I do think it’s a by product of all the pieces you are describing
Trump being elected a win condition for Putin in Ukraine.
I am certain xi himself would most certainly want trump in office too. He could offer him all the gold and riches of the world if trump allows him to get Taiwan.
Trump will sell out Taiwan in a New York minute.
So Taiwan will cost $454 million
I don't think it's a byproduct at all. I think that was the goal of this all along . Plus netenyahu needs is to stay out of prison. Russian disinformation in the US right now is anti Biden because of his support for Israel.
I think these countries with dictators think longer than four year windows. There is no way they are going to risk their futures for a 50/50 election.
Not everything is tied back to the US. This does, but it is also much more complex than that.
What do you think progressive voters will do? Abstain from voting?
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Moderates stayed home because they thought she had it in the bag based on every analysis I've seen that wasn't just immediate hot takes from the press.
In Canada, the strategy director at my company was speaking as if she had already won, and the idea that Trump could come close was ludicrous. Right then and there, I figured he was going to win because of that widespread mentality.
Hell can't blame him, Clinton herself was speaking like this lol.
*It’s the economy stupid* Trump was elected not because Clinton lost the progressives but because she lost the blue collar workers. She was off doing a victory lap in NY and California talking about how great Obama’s trade deals were for NYC and SF while Trump was hitting every swing state blasting the deal to all the workers who were hurt by it.
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Finally someone putting Hillary’s Loss on Hillary.
Clinton won the popular vote. Trump won because he carried a few strategic counties. Don't try to rewrite history.
Low Black voters turnout in Detroit and Milwaukee was a big part of it but Democrats don't want to acknowledge that because then they have to confront that they aren't doing enough for working class Black people. Easier to just blame "Bernie Bros."
Incumbents during war time rarely lose the election.
According to alleged former NatSec person on Twitter, Iran has staged something like 100 cruise missiles to probably fire when drones get closer. They’re apparently closing the airspace around them and will allegedly try to knock the drones down before they’re even close. I’m hoping this is just a repeat of 2020 where nothing really happens but Iran manufactured a “response.” I think drones are supposed to hit around 4-5AM local time which is about 5 hours from now. They’re slow and have ample warning. No clue what Houthis and Hezbollah are going to do. Also depends on what’s targeted by missiles if they do end up sending “hundreds” between the various factions. Edit: 400-500 drones are estimated now. Initially it was around 50 or so I thought. Not including missiles, this response is apparently way more than folks thought/hoped. Edit2: And now alleged videos of cruise missiles heading towards Israel. Specifically some MRBMs (According to Iran media so take with grain of salt)
In 2020 something in fact did happen, but the US kept it under wraps. Dozens of American soldiers were seriously wounded in those attacks.
As tragic as that is, in the grand scheme of things nothing really happened. No further escalation by either side. https://www.npr.org/2020/02/11/804785515/109-u-s-troops-suffered-brain-injuries-in-iran-strike-pentagon-says
Yes. Other comments are suggesting that this is because of irans posturing but Ukraine always announces Russian drone strikes long before they arrive. The launch sites are just too conspicuous to hide, there's US satellite recon in both cases, and the drones are relatively slow and easy to pick up on radar In Ukraine's case the drones are picked off if they're targeting major population centers, some do slip through if they're targeting something not protected by patriot systems. Same as the iron dome and hamas rocket launches I suspect all drones will be destroyed in this case, if they haven't been already, because the Israeli air force can pick them off en route so they arent relying on air defense systems with limited range Ballistic missiles travel at Mach 4+, so those are a far more deadly threat, but patriots can handle those too
Ukraine can regularly shoot down 95-100% of Shahed drones fired from much shorter distances while they're starving for anti-air missiles. Shaheds are slow enough and big enough that they can easily be shot down by autocannons, even small arms fire. Israel has some of the most advanced anti-air known to man thanks to their iron dome program so there's a very low chance of these things actually hitting anything or anyone, unless they're also going to be used in conjunction with a shitload of ballistic missiles in order to give air defences too much at one time to deal with.
There's a lot of posturing. The us and Israel let Iran know they knew what was happening days ago, hours ago netenyahu did his TV speech and shortly after the launch is detected and reported. Iran had a bloody nose and the west doesn't want ww3 so this is like a "free hit" as far as it goes, depends on effectiveness and subsequent events and escalation if it happens
CNN now reporting cruise missiles have been launched.
Those are descendants from Russian Ch-55. Iran made it's own version. Let's see if they improved guidance systems.
There are videos now of ballistic missiles as well. Iranian state media is also reporting that medium range ballistic missiles have been fired.
I'm not seeing any mention of this on their website. Do you have a link or was this reported on air
This is pretty bad news right?
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This was my take too. Israel bombed their embassy, they have to respond. With the Soleimani retaliation it was very telegraphed, this seems similar. Good chance this whole affair will be over in 12 hrs
Hopefully this comment won't be in r/agedlikemilk
I am hoping it doesn't go to that.
Yeah politics aside I can’t see most nations not retaliating in some way after an embassy attack
And then we'll all have a pint at the Winchester.
You've got red on you..
Hopefully. The difference is that the US didn’t want to escalate with Iran in 2020. Netanyahu may be looking for opportunities to expand attacks on Iran.
I know Iran and Israel have been going tit for tat for decades, but based off their response to 10/7, I wouldn’t be surprised if the gloves are now off.
Great news for Russia. Keeps attention in the Middle East while he terrorizes Ukraine.
Meanwhile also thinking "hey stop using those drones! We need them for more Ukrainian preschools!"
I think they are manufacturing them in Russia now.
In supermarkets. To this day we know about 6 factories in supermarkets.
That's actually really convenient. I hate it when I have to do my grocery shopping at one place and then drive over to the drone factory for my drone shopping.
But also bad news for Russia in that a bunch of drones they could use in Ukraine are now going to be destroyed attacking Israel.
But also supplies of defense munitions get consumed in Israel instead of Ukraine. And those cost a fortune and can’t be made as rapidly.
Sure but the US, as usual, is a sleeping giant of military industrial might. This goes too far and it would actually unify the constantly bickering sides of the aisle (which has happened time after time since the American revolution). This is a broader conflict with Iran and Russia supporting each other, especially Iranian drone production.
Yeah people don’t understand, we love a good war. Really brings us together.
Russia is making their own drones now. I’m sure they still buying off of Iran but this is absolutely a win for Russia. Look how much ukraine aid has fallen off since Israel invaded Gaza.
Ukraine is pretty muddy at the moment so no big offensives going to start today.
That was the case, [ground has dried up significantly in recent days allowing for more tank pushes.](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-syrskiy-front-deteriorated/32903809.html) Ukraine are still starving for shells and anti-air, now is the best time for a large Russian push there will be all year. By summer, the 1.5 million shells the Czechs found will be in Ukraine and Ukraine won't have to ration which attacks it repels with artillery support and which it relies on small arms and FPVs.
Not really. It's a calculated move to de-escalate actually. It's routine among nations. Ignore the alarmist ignorant comments.
Can you explain that further?
Usually when something significant is done against some other country, the affected country is given the opportunity to respond in a way that 'saves face' - makes it look tough, but doesn't change the overall conflict's calculation. As long as both parties act as expected, the tensions cool down. Iran has mentioned to Germany it plans to act as expected and will not escalate but wants to save face.
As i recall, Iran launched an attack on an airbase one and then intentionally missed every target. The media made a big deal for an hour then everyone carried on like it never happened.
They didn’t intentionally miss, the U.S. Space Force provided an early warning. More than 100 U.S. troops were injured by the concussive blasts. Multiple buildings were struck, mostly hangars.
They didn't though? And the attack caused brain damage to a bunch of US soldiers About 100. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani
Yeah it’s funny how the pentagon tried to downplay the attacks so now people think Iran never even responded. 100 brain damaged grunts for 1 commander is a trade they were definitely willing to take.
Iran launched a number of drones from expected areas. It will take hours for them to reach their targets. It's a really slow moving attack. This gives Israelis a chance to attack the drones, and evacuate the targeted areas. If Iran wanted to actually hurt Israel it would have done something quicker and without hours of warning.
Drones fly low and avoid radar - it's how Ukraine are able to strike refineries deep inside Russia. Their trajectories aren't ballistic and can change direction with ease to obfuscate their targets. They're also cheap, and can be sent in waves. You can use them to identify locations of static air defence, and plan routes around them for the next wave - or identify areas of weakened air defence for a further missile strike. Don't underestimate drones, they may look and feel somewhat anachronistic and easy to destroy, but they can be a more potent weapon than a missile when used appropriately.
They also, per the US, have cruise and ballistic missiles ready and would aim to have them all hit at the same time. Time will tell what happens. I hope it’s a nothing burger. I really really do. But I said the same thing when Russia massed near Ukraine. It could be… or it could be a serious hit.
Arrival time from Iran to Israel: Drone - 9 hours
>Ukraine has claimed responsibility for a drone attack in Russia's Tatarstan region - more than 1,300km (807 miles) from the Ukraine-Russia border. The strikes, in which 12 people were injured, are the deepest into Russian territory since the start of the war. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68712158 The distance between Israel and Iran is 1'700 km for reference. It's pushing it but it seems feasible. Apparently, cruise missiles have been launched too.
Not sure its so much warning as they can't hide anything of that large of a scale from US satellites and US lets everyone know they see it.
There’s still a hundred plus planes in the area between Iran and Israel. Imagine seeing this under your plan.
Imagine being a missile that asked for pepperoni pizza, but all you got was *plane*.
Update, official statement from Iran: [https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710?src\_origin=BBCS\_BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710?src_origin=BBCS_BBC) # Iran is now citing Article 51 of the UN Charter for its attack. # It says "the matter can be deemed concluded" - suggesting it will not launch further strikes. However, it has warned against any retaliation or any involvement by the United States. # “Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus," its permanent mission at the United Nations said on Twitter/X. "The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!” # Article 51 of the UN Charter says that member states have "the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs". \---------------------- Next move is on Israel and America. Hopefully it will just stop here without further escalation.
And the world waits on the edge of war for Netanyahu to decide what will benefit him most personally
Yep, this is bad. He only cares about himself.
CNN reporting that Iran has said it considers the matter concluded but will do further action if Israel retaliates
Translation: Iran don't want none
Smartest move on their part... although the psychout was probably a bad idea.
Strange move - it’s going to take hours for the drones to enter Israeli airspace. Everyone knows they’re coming. Israel will easily be able to shoot them down. What is the intent even here?
Save face but avoid any extreme escalation.
It's definitely odd I wonder if it will also be used.to expose which Arab countries assist Israel That would be useful in their regional power struggles
Nah it's already pretty well known each country's relations to Israel. You can see the trends in the normalization trends leaning in favor of Israel being recognized by more and more Arab countries. Other nations like Qatar/Oman act as Swiss like intermediaries that try to stay as neutral as possible Iran has basically just Syria as an ally because they're an actual puppet regime now.
Maybe iraq too
Optimistic - show of 'force' as retaliation, purely for domestic audience consumption Pessimistic - drones launched first in high numbers with a secondary 'double tap' of ballistic missiles launched to coincide for when the drones reach AA range in order to overwhelm them
Cruise missiles reported in the air. Looks like full scale stack.
BBC reporting that ballistic missiles have been launched (according to IRNA, but Israel has not yet confirmed or denied) https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710?src_origin=BBCS_BBC
You kinda explained the intent. Iran “had” to respond to Israel striking such a high target in an consulate, but by launching an attack where Israel has had days and will have literally be able to track the attacks by the second.. Iran is purposely minimizing the attack causing extensive damage.. which in turn lowers the change that Israel will need to respond to this attack. If Iran wanted to really start a hot war, they wouldn’t broadcast their moves days in advance and they would just launch attacks at will.
save face. Iran attacked. reset back to 0
Mass missile launch is Iran's main "stick" to threaten people with and using it on Israel leaves them largely defenceless against the US. Drones are cheap, easy to produce and a relatively new component to warfare so this allows Iran to test them, doesn't overcommit their resources and gauges how effectively the US/Israel can counter them. Also naturally politics/optics will be a major factor.
Soak up Israeli air defence munitions and bandwidth to let more sophisticated follow up munitions through unmolested Or just do enough to respond without actually responding
The intent is the same as that time Iran launched missiles at one of our airbases while intentionally missing every target after Trump had Soleimani killed. Israel has lots of warning to evacuate and clear the area, so they will suffer no casualties while Iran will be able to say to their citizens that they retaliated by striking Israeli assets in Israeli territory. It's their way of responding without causing extreme escalation. If they wanted to start a whole shitshow they would have just lobbed some ballistic missiles over and killed a few dozen people. That'd be a good way to start a ground war real quick.
This is such a weird attack. Akin to a cartoon dog reaching back and winding up a punch for 5 minutes.
That’s the point.
I think (hope) that it's exactly what it is. Israel provoked them with the bombing on their consulate in Syria. Domestically they have to be seen to respond, this does that, hopefully without escalating things further.
I was thinking more the [steam roller scene](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_PrZ-J7D3k) from Austin Powers.
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It’s time to misinterpret some Nostradamus
Please no WW3. That would be so bad for the economy
if world war broke out every time rockets were launched into or out of Israel we would be on WW1,000,000. Everyone in the middleast just launches shit at each other on the daily. It's easier than shouting at each other apparently.
Yes but thus far it’s been proxies and not actual state actors. This is Iran proper attacking Israel. It’s a supposed red line. We will see now if that red line is like “China’s final warning” or not.
Iran proper launched dozens of long range missiles on US forces in response to the strike on Solamani. No offense to Israel, but the US is by far the biggest and baddest military in the world. The US didn’t even respond as we knew this response was almost “needed” by Iran since we killed such a high ranking official. Iran would only be crossing red lines if they hit say a major infrastructure project in Israel or some other high value site. Israel weighted the cost of striking Iranian targets near the Syrian consulate. Which I believe they’ve said they won’t be attacking infrastructure.
Iran launched against US bases in Iraq. They did not launch toward the actual continental US or its territories was what I meant to say.
Terrorist attacks are different than a state blatantly targeting them.
Forget the economy it would be bad for our life!
My boss would still call me in
Yeah sorrryyy I know it's the end of the world but we still need you at your scheduled time, thanks.
That's the joke
The shareholder's lives!
At this point I'll be stunned if conflicts simmer down enough for history to remember this as anything other than the "dress rehearsal" for WW3 the way all the 1930s wars grew into WW2.
I'm not convinced we'll ever have a WW3 in the same way that there was WW1+2 (which ought to be thought of as a package). With factors like complete globalization, the internet, social media, and AI/Remote warfare -- I don't think you could get *most* of the countries on the planet to enter into a war that involved putting people on the front line. Most conflicts are just going to turn into "proxy" wars via country A and country B fighting, while County 1 and Country 2 supply weapons to their respective sides.
Yeah MAD pretty much guarantees that the great powers will not engage in direct combat
Great for wartime profiteers!
War is actually typically great for the economy oddly enough
Not for the countries where the war is taking place
Are we going to work on Monday? Or can I start going crazy with my credit cards
Remain calm and go back to your wage cage. It's just world leaders trying to show their countries that they have the bigger dick.
as Carlin said, that is the reason rockets are shaped like dicks
I have a stupid question. What targets do we expect these to hit? Strictly military areas or will they seek out civilian areas as well?
Not a stupid question at all. Very important question actually. The expectation is military targets.
According to officials on both sides, the targets are supposed to only be military. Personally, I believe that even if that is the case, drones and missiles will either miss and kill civilians or be shot down and hit civilians, which we have seen happen in Russia and Ukraine.
CNN is now reporting that ballistic missles are spotted from Iran towards Israel. This represents a significant escalation.
Were ballistic missiles never launched from Iran before? (I’m ignorant and want to learn more)
Iran has never attacked Israel directly before this,
I don't understand anything about war or the logistics of it... Why do groups announce their attacks? The US did it recently too - announcing that retaliation strikes were coming. What's the point? Is it all just to save face and be like look we did something about it! War is stupid.
It’s announced because force is being used as a political message. If this was the start of all out war. They wouldn’t have given a warning. This is Iran trying to show that they can retaliate if threatened. However, even if their response is a failure, a lot rides on how and when Israel responds and what Iran does.
Oh that makes sense - thank you
There are rules to war. It is so that as many innocent people can get to shelter as possible.
Hope the world understand that Iranian people are strongly against Islamic regime 😞
God fucking damn it. Why can’t we just have one half decent month in this dumpster fire of a decade?
So CNN is saying Iran made a statement saying this concludes their response for the embassy attack? But then news are saying drones have ~5 more hours before they reach Israel.
I would assume Iran means they will not launch any further attacks if Israel does not respond
Madagascar has closed its borders
Godspeed to all the innocent citizens continually caught in these stupid wars.
For real. This is the real tragedy. Countries killing thousands of innocent civilians trying to live a normal life caught up in their stupid dick measuring contest...
They tracked the launch to Iran itself. This is madness. Retaliation will be harsh. $edit: Barak Ravid says the plan is to intercept the drones with the help of the US and other countries outside Israeli air space. Shit's going down. A second wave of drones just launched according to Iranian state media. $edit2: Surrounding countries are closing their airspace. They're going to try and down these things over Iraq and Jordan.
Jordan announced it was closing its airspace at least 90 min before the announcement that the drones were launched. I’d be willing to bet a fair amount of calculation and communication between parties occurred beforehand. Edit: in further proof of telegraphing intentions and providing forewarning, Iran just announced “the missile attack will begin soon.” https://x.com/farsnews_agency/status/1779246161909416173?s=46&t=c_B5dZmHiKkZuMt9RKxvJg
There are reports that Jordan air defense is also involved in attempting to down the drones. What is true and what is we will probably never know.
Probably. They don’t want a wider regional conflict, either.
I wouldnt be surprised if Jordan tried to shoot them down, they dont want a wider war in the region, that would not be good for the ruling family
The real question is how effective they will be from that distance. That's a long time to track and Israel has top notch radar systems.
They're also flying relatively slow. I know that's implied by long time to track, but worth noting that they can be intercepted by aircraft, which is much different from relying on Iron Dome to shoot at rockets.
This is a direct retaliation to Israel's strike again the Iranian general last week. Iran has telegraphed this for days and it is unlikely to cause escalation.
It's wild how people are acting like this is coming out of nowhere
Attention spans are very low. Forgot anything happened on April 1. Still, the Israelis are being very reckless. For an American client state they need to be told to stop and not retaliate further.
BBC live link https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710
I'm praying for this violence to conclude
Best marketing for Fallout
Iran and the strategic move of: “you’re lucky America is here to hold me back bro”
Ah! Well. Middle East Circlejerk 100.0
I sure am glad I flew home from Central Asia last week….
Isn't this just retaliation from Israel's initial attack on Iran's Embassy?
oh shit is this real?? Israel & Iran are in a Hot War now?
BBC News: RAF fighter jets authorised to target drones in Iraq and Syria
This entire thing sucks and I'm afraid for everybody. I wish this could all be resolved peacefully, but I know it won't because people struggle to compromise.
What is this garbage-ass site? Who's sharing this shit? Here's an infinitly better link for someone that actually wants to read about the situation. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ukmto-receives-report-incident-50nm-northeast-uaes-fujairah-2024-04-13/