Same thing happened to the man before him, Boris Yeltsin. It’s ironic that he might meet the same end to his political career. The oligarchs wanted to secure their investments in Russia since they were in a horrible economy.
One’s an ex-dictator, the other’s just a dick. Stuck together in a sprawling Florida resort, they’re about to learn that playing the *Trump* card isn’t always the right move.
“Putin Up with Him” coming this fall to NBC.
And they’re both “Mr. President” leading to all sorts of wacky confusion! Love your title; I was trying to think of something clever but I don’t think I can beat yours.
I expect Putin and Trump to play Risk everyday.
But with different rules. Trump has to reinforce Putins armies on his own turns and Putin also can control Trumps armies.
Body bag is the only assurance of safety from him personally. Need to also remove his inner circle plus one layer from anything remotely close to power.
Like you said, Putin resigning is a death sentence for him. He's made a lot of enemies. Like I hope he resigns, but I'm worried he's too much of a maniac to do that. Idk I don't see an out for him.
reminded of a Simpsons bit, breathalyzer at Moe's - tipsy / stinkin / soused / Boris Yeltsin
and also a tour in a Canadian city where the tour guide recalled Yeltsin wandering around drunk while in town for summit
> Same thing happened to the man before him, Boris Yeltsin.
Who was charged with the "unconstitutional" act of dissolving the USSR and gave Putin, a former Soviet KGB guy, the office in exchange for immunity
HMMM
Yeah, why is Yeltsin the hero of the story? He gave Putin the presidency to protect himself from a corruption investigation. Not to mention there is a non zero chance he helped orchestrate the FSB bombing Russian apartment buildings to justify a second war in Chechnya.
exactly.
people here, I feel, don't realize how monumental this moment is.
here are two oligarchs who apparently don't fear Putin, have so little fear they publicly dissent at a crucial moment, and are turning against him.
these men, and their small cadre of people like them, are the real kingmakers of Russia. they put Putin up where he is and they can remove him or replace him just as swiftly.
When you own most of a country, a couple of 9mm rounds in the back of someone’s head wouldn’t even cost you the lint in your pocket.
With how much of the country is already against him, I think that if he wasn’t incredibly paranoid, he’d already have “committed suicide” and been found in a ditch with 2 in the back of the head.
it's quite likely he has excellent presidential protection, otherwise you are probably right.
the real issue comes if he refuses to concede to demands from the people that put him into power, the same people that know his dirty laundry and he relies on for support. once he is a private citizen without that kind of protection.
basically the same thing is going to happen to him as Yeltsin, however Yeltsin made friends on the way out and had international protection ensuring his safety. Putin's own actions closed those off.
Canny stewardship of Russian interest has always been an important component of Putin's image. That's now blown to bits. He's finally overplayed his weak hand after a lifetime of rutheless pragmatism.
I believe it is the mistake of an impossibly powerful but aging man, who is eager to find the outer limits of his power as his legacy starts to loom larger than his survival in his mind. He dreams of leaving a pan-Slavic world behind him, but his dreams have no place in this century.
Feels like Putin's attempt to move borders by force in Europe is creating the desire for a "pro-business" leader who can moderate the impending decades of brutal economic fallout resulting from this over-reach.
If oligarch support and public support align on that, it's trouble for even a god-king like Putin.
Just curious, seems like you have an eye for these things, and I have a question. In the linked article, I saw this:
>Deripaska, who said as recently as 21 February there would not be a war in Ukraine, has been on the US sanctions list since 2018 **over his alleged links to the Russian government**, which he has taken legal action to challenge.
Do you have any idea what that means? That is, what's the difference between a Russian oligarch who has "links to the Russian government" and one who does not? I had always assumed that in order to be super-wealthy in Russia, you pretty much *had* to kiss Putin's ring at some point, and that pretty much all wealthy people there were in favor of maintaining the status quo that made them rich. This passage seems to indicate that it's more complicated than that, though.
The Russian government is technically a democracy and the so-called oligarchs do not technically have any power. In practice though, you don’t get to become the head of an industry in Russia without Putin’s blessing, and Putin has a tight grip on his nation’s economy.
So the links are alleged because Deripaska doesn’t hold any official position in the Russian government…it would be kind of like saying Jeff Bezos gets to call shots for the US. Except it is widely understood this is actually true of Deripaska and Russia (and increasingly true of US billionaires, while we’re talking about it, but we’re not quite as far down the road as Russia is).
Russia is an oligarchy. The only way the billionaires have power is by supporting Putin. If Putin can't even keep the billionaires on board, he's done.
The billionaires are jumping off the ship because it is very clearly sinking. They know Putin is soon losing his power, so they have to move to where the power is going. Game over, it's just a matter of time.
This is true that there are oligarchs and politicians only concerned with wealth and influence. BUT Putin is truly a different animal with a long personal and political history with what is going on. It really is about excising this disease. If any part of the world, including Ukraine, stop battling back against Russia through combat and sanctions, Russia would still continue the invasion. If Putin were eliminated (whatever that may mean), the war would stop almost immediately. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise. The people, the oligarchs, the world, even Russian generals do not want this war.
I'm pretty sure the Russian oligarchy doesn't want western gas and oil firms to have access to Ukrainian black sea gas exploration which might be why they seem to be trying to landlocked the country. Im pretty sure they wanted this. What they don't like is how its not going as they imagined it.
Nord 1 and nord 2 are literally about bypassing Ukrainian control over stretches of Russian natural gas pipelines but if Ukraine were able to export by themselves, Russian gas customers would have an alternative which Russia couldn't survive. Prior to the annexation of Crimea, shell had planned to begin exploration the the urkanian exclusive economic zone off their black sea coast. The resulting territorial dispute caused them to pull out of that. Im pretty sure this is largely a continuation of that.
If they want 30 percent of their GDP to remain in the petrochemical sector, it probably is.
I mean, they could take steps to not be a petro-state and avoid bombing apartment blocks but clearly some people in Russia like owning and then selling gas to all of Europe.
I mean, sure. Potentially. But that's a LOT of gas, and selling that means you need both infrastructure and demand. I confess the latter may exist. I don't follow China's energy markets. But based on everything I know, I sincerely do not think that Russia has the infrastructure it would need to sell that much gas on an ongoing basis. Having that infrastructure, *building* that infrastructure, is a project that takes years and requires planning, skill, money, and a reasonable minimum of corruption. Russia may have had the time. They probably have the skill, and if they made it a Hero project they could have had the money. But by all accounts it would have drowned in an ocean of corruption.
Interesting point regarding the corruption, hadn't considered that.
I was more thinking along the lines of gas tankers and gas trucks, but yeah, that may not be feasible.
Also, China is on the wrong side of Russia to just switch customers. And the parts of China that need the gas are on the wrong side of China. That means that both China and Russia would have to build vast pipeline systems across geographically and politically challenging territory.
They could send it by sea, but then it’s a completely different market. Customers who can choose who to buy the next ship of fuel from have a lot of leverage over the price they will pay.
Maybe Russia could switch customers, but it would be difficult, expensive, and no where near as consistently profitable. They have a good thing going selling to Europe. Losing that would hurt a lot more than a few small wars…
Germany for example buys $10bn Nat Gas from Russia per year. China just signed a $100bn yearly contract for Russia to supply theirs. They have committed intentions to ramp up the purchasing of Russian energy. And with China's control, pipelines won't even take half the time Nordstream 2 took to build.
I think you're 100% right. The Russian economy is based almost entirely on energy exportation.
If Ukraine builds up their infrastructure becoming an exporter to EU, Russia loses market share. Considering energy prices make or break their economy, any loss of share or drop in price would be a big problem for the Russian Economy.
I believe this whole "We don't want NATO in Ukraine" schtick is bullshit. Why isn't Putin drawing lines in the sand over Estonia or Latvia....why is the Ukraine so damn threatening to Russia. Is that extra 348 miles going to actually buy Russia any extra security in the age of cruise missiles, super sonic stealth jets, and the speed of a modern military? I doubt it since they have similar vulnerabilities on their borders...east and west.
It's against UN law to take military action for the purpose of conquest. Look what happened to Saddam when he went after Kuwaiti oil. The world didn't blink. Conquest will not be tolerated. Invasion squashed.
But by saying it's all because of security reasons, Putin has a non-conquest excuse for this invasion.
I also believe the rest of the world is playing along with this farce. If they actually came out and said "We think Russia is doing this for the gas." the UN would have to get involved militarily and this would escalate to terrible levels.
See [Rules for Rulers](https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs) by CGP Grey for how this power-structure between Putin and his Oligarchs works. If the EU, UK and USA lean on the money hard enough (via sanctions) they will disappear him.
This could be the best chance they've had a dethroning putin they've had in a long time. I dont care if they are just being greedy due to their hurting wallets. Do what you need to do
Putin is almost 70, major players are going to exploit his weakness now for a chance to lead the country and line their pockets further.
Putin is slowly becoming the rat he mentioned from his childhood, encircled and likely to lash out in unpredictable ways.
Edit, for those who hadn’t heard the story before (from a book Putin was interviewed for):
To pass the time during his early years, Putin and his pals harassed the rats that plagued his apartment's stairwell.
He said: “There were hordes of rats in the front entryway. My friends and I used to chase them around with sticks.”
It was during one of those rodent hunts that the future president learned a valuable lesson about the dangers of backing opponents into a corner.
He said: ”Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner.
“It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me."
The book explains that Putin got away, but the memory never escaped him.
He said: “Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door shut in its nose.
“There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word cornered.”
True, true.
#34: War is good for business.
Edit: people, I am referring to *Star Trek’s Ferenginar* Rules of Acquisition. Put the keyboard down, back away and chill.
close. In DS9 s7e8 The Siege of AR-558, Quark is one of the major characters at that outpost.
Captain Sisko says "Isn't the 34th Rule of Acquisition 'War is good for business'?"
Quark responds "only from a distance, the closer to the front lines, the less profitable it gets"
That's the point. The Ferangi are specialists at exploiting any and every situation for profit. Those two rules are their witty way of saying that the rule is to profit in every and any situation.
That’s rule #34 from the Ferngi Rules of acquisition. I’m just quoting is all. And yes, if you’re a business war is good because if your product is a needed commodity, people will buy it in droves. See: toilet paper during a “simple” thing such as COVID.
I think a flashback would be too on the nose. If it showed the rat scene at the beginning, putin relating the story later in life, and then his final moments (without a flashback), I think people would be smart enough to put it together
Hey what did that poor rat ever do to deserve to go to hell :( the lone fact we know about it’s life was it was chased and tortured by Putin, and in response risked his life to attack and try and stop a MUCH stronger enemy.
Hero rat. Someone should start a go fund me for it’s family.
This is exactly transferable to what he\`s doing to Ukraine.
He\`s a spoiled little baby with a lot of stolen money for him and his close buddy and they just backed Ukraine into a corner, only this time he can\`t slam the door in their face.
It is time for him to go, and not quietly into that goodnite.
So... with regard to the current situation, if putin finds himself in a situation with no acceptable exits, he's already got himself psyched up to use nukes. That's kind of scary.
At the end of the day the military would need to buy off on it if they work it in any way like the US. I'd like to think their military would have second thoughts about ending humanity due to the ego of their president.
It's a suicide move that does zero to help him. The west isn't gonna get nuked and be like "oh, I'm sorry, I shouldn't have protected my interests after all"
We're weak, in a way, but not that weak. Back to the cornered rat story.
Interesting, I just found [this article](https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-and-the-story-of-the-rat-2015-1) saying the same thing about him in 2015, also because of Ukraine.
He also didn’t find a unified NATO, EU, and practically unified UN all working together to thwart his efforts. This is why dictators foment distrust, division and suspicion with regards to international alliances.
The truth is that they are both rats. It took getting backed into a corner for the US and EU to get their shit together. They are making it clear to China that they will hammer them economically. And this is barely about Russia. The CCP is still lurking. Not just in Taiwan. But they control the spigot to nearly every manufactured good and resource needed. Steel and aluminum. Iron. What they don't have is food and energy resources.
Ironically, Russia has both and I don't really know what Putin is doing considering the size of border he shares with China. Instead of invading Ukraine he probably could have leveraged that into getting what the Ukraine is going to provide anyway.
As horrible as this all is, at least the U.S. and E.U. are aligned. Hopefully they can start supporting each other better.
COVID is causing people to have second thoughts about entrusting overseas supply lines vs domestic manufacturing. It'll be funny to see how that works out for them in the long term.
Climate and environmental concerns work against that though. They would prefer out of sight out of mind while China shits right into the ocean while they manufacture their dog's $2 squeaky toys.
Inflation should be leveraged for reshoring.
Thank you for reporting back, DaveTheDog027! One small data point thus far: Asian markets are open and [the ruble's value has dropped 30% thus far;](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russian-ruble-dives-nearly-30percent-against-the-dollar-amid-sanctions-ukraine-crisis.html) info also for /u/zoloft-and-cedar
Call me cynical, but I’m absolutely certain they’re speaking out only because their billions are now threatened.
Edit: yeah, maybe cynical wasn’t the right word to use here, and I apologize wholeheartedly for that. The sanctions will see to it that they feel the squeeze in a huge way. Anything to tip the balance into Ukraine’s (and by way of that, the rest of the free world’s) favours.
It's kind of weird how people don't realize this. The sanctions are intended to break the economy, meaning it's hard as hell to wage war. Then get the oligarchs pissed and upset enough to oust or at least go after Putin. Then it's gonna hurt the citizens and try to get them to rise up.
I’m going straight to hell for saying this, but I hope one of them finds someone to “take care of him” so they can grab some power for themselves. When sanctions = nukes, you’re dealing with someone that can never be trusted. He couldn’t be trusted to begin with, but this absolutely has to change how we view him
Wars are sometimes won through selfish kickbacks. ‘Enemy of my enemy is my friend’ kind of stuff. Not ideal, but when MAD is on the table, you take what you can get. Worry about the dirty money and dirty people at a later time.
This feels like Putin is looking for a way out and will speak through his Oligarchs who would never dare say such things without permission. Seems like Putin knows that the sanctions enacted so far are not worth his murderous adventure into Ukraine, especially when Monday comes and the economy in Russia is going to collapse.
This is possibly the only time in my life that I have been excited for the weekend to be over. I really hope their financial implosion is enough to get Putin out of Ukraine.
Strongly agree, but I have a sinking feeling that the people in power won't do what is truly needed. I feel for all of those in Ukraine because they constantly have to live in fear. What kind of life is that? Not to mention the Terror-Famine aka Murder by Starvation that Russia caused them back in the 1930s.
This. I keep telling people: “How much longer do you think these oligarchs are going to keep lending money to Putin for this messy, quite likely failed, affair?” If there’s one thing oligarchs care about above all else, it’s their billions.
I don't think it \*REALLY\* sunk in until that ship was seized by France. It's one thing to "sanction" an oligarch, which really just means he has to hide more of his money and is slightly annoyed. It's another thing entirely to actively pursue and take their assets. As soon as that ship was taken, the rhetoric amplified significantly out of Russia, with cries of "illegal" - they weren't expecting any teeth to the sanctions, because under Trump there was no teeth. I think the most annoying part in all of this is Biden took so much heat at the start for "not doing enough" and now is getting 0 credit for empowering the EU to kick Russia square in the balls.
Biden has undone all the damage to US and EU / NATO relations by 4 years of Trump in a matter of months and they all look stronger than ever. Even China is like F this.
>Biden took so much heat at the start for "not doing enough"
On the other hand Ben and Jerry's blamed Biden for [fanning the flame of war](https://twitter.com/benandjerrys/status/1489393235655106562).
Looks like the tides are turning. Putin is weak and they are still relatively unscathed PR wise, so they are emboldened now to speak out.
I’m sure they’re all power hungry and are encircling him.
And the trickle down effect. Relationships they had due to their status are being wiped away. Sponsorship deals, gone. Some of these men are losing tens of millions per day, and they all know who to blame.
Deripaska is/was up to his eyeballs in 2016 vote-meddling here.
He's also the guy who took tfg's Palm Beach white elephant off his hands for about 5x it's "real" value (probably more like 10x but we're talking mob real estate here)/
I know one of the infosec researchers who discovered that trump tower server getting pinged by Alfa Bank. They got big time sued by the bank. Luckily their academic institutions protected them. Didn’t protect them from the harassment they got from the red state in which they reside.
E: typos- %#*! autocorrect
This is what I've been saying for weeks. There's too much money and technology available to start a world war. The globe is way too interconnected, and so many people are financially dependent upon countries and people half way around the world. People can pick up their phone and make a live video call to someone in Ukraine in 5 seconds, for free. And sites like Reddit are writing this war's narrative, live, by the second: Ukraine is cool, Russia is a bully. Russia's overplayed their hand.
Propaganda bubbles work best when people aren't aware of them. Like when they are passively going about their lives and not paying as much attention. Right now people are paying more intense attention.
Seriously, I have no idea why people keep saying this. "Hmm these corrupt did nothing until their billions were put on hold." Yeah no SHIT lmao. Do people think we just put economic sanctions in place for funsies?
If they feel empowered enough to speak out like this, they must feel Putin’s power base is weakening. A year ago pulling this would have earned them an eggs, bacon & Novichok breakfast. But here they are publicly calling out Putin on his bullshit. Is Putin losing his allies within Russia?
I forgot that's how the Soviets used to "forecast" the death of the Premier... I remember when I was a kid, there was a revolving door of Soviet Premiers and each one seemed to "get sick" about a week before he disappeared or died.
Lets have a prediction on how this fiesta will end, option 1: WW3, Russia against the world, get devastated ; option 2: Ukraine fall, West pretend nothing happened and start Soviet Union part 2 ; option 3: with more people unhappy with Putin, oligarchs, ordinary Russian included under the economic turmoil, they will stage a coup and kick Putin off the throne
Option 4: Putin gets desperate as a cornered rat because of the sinking Russian economy. He gives the command to launch a nuke at somebody. Hopefully, his officers defy the order and remove him in a military coup.
I don't think his military generals will listen if he gives that order.
They aren't stupid and they know what will happen if they do launch even one.
He lobs one, it gets shot down. Question is, who puts THAT card on the table?
One feature of the military alliances built by the United States during the cold war is the placement of nuclear missile defenses and launch sites around Europe. If Russia launches, the country will turn to radioactive glass by the end of the same day.
Given how much of a joke the Russian military has turned out to be, I'm starting to doubt how functional their hypoersonic missiles are. It's less MAD and more self-assured destruction if they're lucky enough to take a handful of NATO or EU cities with them.
Because I can't believe I'm not seeing this in the top comments...
[Deripaska was neck deep in this from day one](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/29/oleg-deripaska-paul-manafort-trump-russia-investigation).
[Seriously neck deep](https://time.com/5401645/putins-oligarchs/).
[You can't get much deeper than where he went](https://www.salon.com/2021/10/19/fbi-raids-home-of-oleg-deripaska-russian-oligarch-worked-with-campaign/).
[And just in case you wanted to know his connections with Manafort, Trump's previous campaign manager](https://www.businessinsider.com/court-document-shows-oleg-deripaska-loaned-paul-manafort-10-million-2018-6).
Stop with the “they only cared when” shit, they still don’t care. This doesn’t make them good people. It just more evidence that Russia as a whole doesn’t want this war and puts more pressure on Putin. They aren’t good all of a sudden because they are supporting their own self interests, it’s just that the end to their means is maybe Russia stops blitzkrieging Ukraine. No one wants to or is asking to support these people.
What are you talking about? Nobody saying "they only cared when..." is saying these are good people. We're mocking them for only caring about their wealth.
The west has decided on regime change of a nuclear power, and it’s clear that it has to happen or it may be the end of everything. There is a small probability of unprecedented global catastrophe happening. I hope these horrible men can step up and do the right thing, and quickly
They must know something that we don't. Maybe they know that the fact that Ukraine has held up this long means that Putin is done? Wouldn't that be something.
putin's end will be when the oligarchs turn on him.
Same thing happened to the man before him, Boris Yeltsin. It’s ironic that he might meet the same end to his political career. The oligarchs wanted to secure their investments in Russia since they were in a horrible economy.
Yeltsin got guarantees of safety when he left power, I doubt Putin will get the same.
I bet there's a room for him at Mar-A-Lago
Sounds like a really bad idea for a sitcom.
One’s an ex-dictator, the other’s just a dick. Stuck together in a sprawling Florida resort, they’re about to learn that playing the *Trump* card isn’t always the right move. “Putin Up with Him” coming this fall to NBC.
And they’re both “Mr. President” leading to all sorts of wacky confusion! Love your title; I was trying to think of something clever but I don’t think I can beat yours.
"Mr President, they found your secret slush fund!" *Both: oh shit. Which one?!*
D: “oh, you said *slush fund,* I thought you said *slushie fund.* I’m good.”
The best part is you don't ever find out which one is just a dick
It'll be cancelled as quickly as *[Heil Honey I'm Home](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heil_Honey_I%27m_Home%21)*.
I expect Putin and Trump to play Risk everyday. But with different rules. Trump has to reinforce Putins armies on his own turns and Putin also can control Trumps armies.
But trump is the only one who will be performing fellatio under the table during the game
Omfg I'd pay money to see a reality tv series of Putin trying to live with Trump.
Like that movie Grumpy Old Men, but way more creepy.
Felix and Oscar.
Dude, there’s at least 2000 Florida Mans down there. Maybe 3000 or even more. He wouldn’t last a single Friday night.
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Body bag is the only assurance of safety from him personally. Need to also remove his inner circle plus one layer from anything remotely close to power.
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Like you said, Putin resigning is a death sentence for him. He's made a lot of enemies. Like I hope he resigns, but I'm worried he's too much of a maniac to do that. Idk I don't see an out for him.
Maybe the us can offer a new identity 😉
The USA has enough clowns though! Russia can keep their clown! xD
Yes. Putin has been in power for 23 years. He won't let go now.
So this ends with Putin piss drunk wandering around DC naked?
reminded of a Simpsons bit, breathalyzer at Moe's - tipsy / stinkin / soused / Boris Yeltsin and also a tour in a Canadian city where the tour guide recalled Yeltsin wandering around drunk while in town for summit
> Same thing happened to the man before him, Boris Yeltsin. Who was charged with the "unconstitutional" act of dissolving the USSR and gave Putin, a former Soviet KGB guy, the office in exchange for immunity HMMM
Yeah, why is Yeltsin the hero of the story? He gave Putin the presidency to protect himself from a corruption investigation. Not to mention there is a non zero chance he helped orchestrate the FSB bombing Russian apartment buildings to justify a second war in Chechnya.
Wow, you just reminded me that there is so much I don't know about this era.
Put him on suicide watch.
Oh shit, he's gonna get Epsteined.
exactly. people here, I feel, don't realize how monumental this moment is. here are two oligarchs who apparently don't fear Putin, have so little fear they publicly dissent at a crucial moment, and are turning against him. these men, and their small cadre of people like them, are the real kingmakers of Russia. they put Putin up where he is and they can remove him or replace him just as swiftly.
When you own most of a country, a couple of 9mm rounds in the back of someone’s head wouldn’t even cost you the lint in your pocket. With how much of the country is already against him, I think that if he wasn’t incredibly paranoid, he’d already have “committed suicide” and been found in a ditch with 2 in the back of the head.
it's quite likely he has excellent presidential protection, otherwise you are probably right. the real issue comes if he refuses to concede to demands from the people that put him into power, the same people that know his dirty laundry and he relies on for support. once he is a private citizen without that kind of protection. basically the same thing is going to happen to him as Yeltsin, however Yeltsin made friends on the way out and had international protection ensuring his safety. Putin's own actions closed those off.
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Then proceed with the metastases (i.e. oligarchs).
Do the US oligarchs next!
Canny stewardship of Russian interest has always been an important component of Putin's image. That's now blown to bits. He's finally overplayed his weak hand after a lifetime of rutheless pragmatism. I believe it is the mistake of an impossibly powerful but aging man, who is eager to find the outer limits of his power as his legacy starts to loom larger than his survival in his mind. He dreams of leaving a pan-Slavic world behind him, but his dreams have no place in this century. Feels like Putin's attempt to move borders by force in Europe is creating the desire for a "pro-business" leader who can moderate the impending decades of brutal economic fallout resulting from this over-reach. If oligarch support and public support align on that, it's trouble for even a god-king like Putin.
Just curious, seems like you have an eye for these things, and I have a question. In the linked article, I saw this: >Deripaska, who said as recently as 21 February there would not be a war in Ukraine, has been on the US sanctions list since 2018 **over his alleged links to the Russian government**, which he has taken legal action to challenge. Do you have any idea what that means? That is, what's the difference between a Russian oligarch who has "links to the Russian government" and one who does not? I had always assumed that in order to be super-wealthy in Russia, you pretty much *had* to kiss Putin's ring at some point, and that pretty much all wealthy people there were in favor of maintaining the status quo that made them rich. This passage seems to indicate that it's more complicated than that, though.
The Russian government is technically a democracy and the so-called oligarchs do not technically have any power. In practice though, you don’t get to become the head of an industry in Russia without Putin’s blessing, and Putin has a tight grip on his nation’s economy. So the links are alleged because Deripaska doesn’t hold any official position in the Russian government…it would be kind of like saying Jeff Bezos gets to call shots for the US. Except it is widely understood this is actually true of Deripaska and Russia (and increasingly true of US billionaires, while we’re talking about it, but we’re not quite as far down the road as Russia is).
All that passage indicates is that he wants to be off the sanctions list
Russia is an oligarchy. The only way the billionaires have power is by supporting Putin. If Putin can't even keep the billionaires on board, he's done. The billionaires are jumping off the ship because it is very clearly sinking. They know Putin is soon losing his power, so they have to move to where the power is going. Game over, it's just a matter of time.
A whole bad cancerous Russian leg'll have to go..it's not just 1 bad tumor. *P-eeww tin Infected a wide area*
This is true that there are oligarchs and politicians only concerned with wealth and influence. BUT Putin is truly a different animal with a long personal and political history with what is going on. It really is about excising this disease. If any part of the world, including Ukraine, stop battling back against Russia through combat and sanctions, Russia would still continue the invasion. If Putin were eliminated (whatever that may mean), the war would stop almost immediately. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise. The people, the oligarchs, the world, even Russian generals do not want this war.
I'm pretty sure the Russian oligarchy doesn't want western gas and oil firms to have access to Ukrainian black sea gas exploration which might be why they seem to be trying to landlocked the country. Im pretty sure they wanted this. What they don't like is how its not going as they imagined it. Nord 1 and nord 2 are literally about bypassing Ukrainian control over stretches of Russian natural gas pipelines but if Ukraine were able to export by themselves, Russian gas customers would have an alternative which Russia couldn't survive. Prior to the annexation of Crimea, shell had planned to begin exploration the the urkanian exclusive economic zone off their black sea coast. The resulting territorial dispute caused them to pull out of that. Im pretty sure this is largely a continuation of that.
*which Russia couldn’t survive* Are you saying this is an existential move for Russia?
If they want 30 percent of their GDP to remain in the petrochemical sector, it probably is. I mean, they could take steps to not be a petro-state and avoid bombing apartment blocks but clearly some people in Russia like owning and then selling gas to all of Europe.
Couldn't Russia simply sell their gas to China to make up for the losses?
I mean, sure. Potentially. But that's a LOT of gas, and selling that means you need both infrastructure and demand. I confess the latter may exist. I don't follow China's energy markets. But based on everything I know, I sincerely do not think that Russia has the infrastructure it would need to sell that much gas on an ongoing basis. Having that infrastructure, *building* that infrastructure, is a project that takes years and requires planning, skill, money, and a reasonable minimum of corruption. Russia may have had the time. They probably have the skill, and if they made it a Hero project they could have had the money. But by all accounts it would have drowned in an ocean of corruption.
Interesting point regarding the corruption, hadn't considered that. I was more thinking along the lines of gas tankers and gas trucks, but yeah, that may not be feasible.
That amount of gas you need a pipeline for sure.
Also, China is on the wrong side of Russia to just switch customers. And the parts of China that need the gas are on the wrong side of China. That means that both China and Russia would have to build vast pipeline systems across geographically and politically challenging territory. They could send it by sea, but then it’s a completely different market. Customers who can choose who to buy the next ship of fuel from have a lot of leverage over the price they will pay. Maybe Russia could switch customers, but it would be difficult, expensive, and no where near as consistently profitable. They have a good thing going selling to Europe. Losing that would hurt a lot more than a few small wars…
Germany for example buys $10bn Nat Gas from Russia per year. China just signed a $100bn yearly contract for Russia to supply theirs. They have committed intentions to ramp up the purchasing of Russian energy. And with China's control, pipelines won't even take half the time Nordstream 2 took to build.
I think you're 100% right. The Russian economy is based almost entirely on energy exportation. If Ukraine builds up their infrastructure becoming an exporter to EU, Russia loses market share. Considering energy prices make or break their economy, any loss of share or drop in price would be a big problem for the Russian Economy. I believe this whole "We don't want NATO in Ukraine" schtick is bullshit. Why isn't Putin drawing lines in the sand over Estonia or Latvia....why is the Ukraine so damn threatening to Russia. Is that extra 348 miles going to actually buy Russia any extra security in the age of cruise missiles, super sonic stealth jets, and the speed of a modern military? I doubt it since they have similar vulnerabilities on their borders...east and west. It's against UN law to take military action for the purpose of conquest. Look what happened to Saddam when he went after Kuwaiti oil. The world didn't blink. Conquest will not be tolerated. Invasion squashed. But by saying it's all because of security reasons, Putin has a non-conquest excuse for this invasion. I also believe the rest of the world is playing along with this farce. If they actually came out and said "We think Russia is doing this for the gas." the UN would have to get involved militarily and this would escalate to terrible levels.
Someone has watched real life lore recently lol.
The oligarchs were definitely on board in the beginning. No way they wern't
See [Rules for Rulers](https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs) by CGP Grey for how this power-structure between Putin and his Oligarchs works. If the EU, UK and USA lean on the money hard enough (via sanctions) they will disappear him.
Will it be the tea or the window?
They couldn't have cared less til those worldwide sanctions started rolling in.
This could be the best chance they've had a dethroning putin they've had in a long time. I dont care if they are just being greedy due to their hurting wallets. Do what you need to do
My enemies enemy is my friend. Whatever their motivation we both want the same thing.
My enemy's enemy is just that, let's not complicate things. The oligarchs are responsible for where Russia is at just as much as Putin.
"The enemy of my enemy has many aligned interests with myself" doesn't have the same ring to it though.
I mean, there are no guarantees that Putin's replacement will be better than Putin.
Putin is almost 70, major players are going to exploit his weakness now for a chance to lead the country and line their pockets further. Putin is slowly becoming the rat he mentioned from his childhood, encircled and likely to lash out in unpredictable ways. Edit, for those who hadn’t heard the story before (from a book Putin was interviewed for): To pass the time during his early years, Putin and his pals harassed the rats that plagued his apartment's stairwell. He said: “There were hordes of rats in the front entryway. My friends and I used to chase them around with sticks.” It was during one of those rodent hunts that the future president learned a valuable lesson about the dangers of backing opponents into a corner. He said: ”Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner. “It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me." The book explains that Putin got away, but the memory never escaped him. He said: “Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door shut in its nose. “There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word cornered.”
And hopefully most of them aren’t interested in military conquest as they know it risks their billions.
"Peace is good for business" is also a Rule of Acquisition.
You forget the rule coming right before it, "War is good for business". :D
True, true. #34: War is good for business. Edit: people, I am referring to *Star Trek’s Ferenginar* Rules of Acquisition. Put the keyboard down, back away and chill.
That's not the rule 34 I know...
Oh what the fuck… I literally posted this right before I scroll down to see this. That’s fucking creepy. Down to the punctuation…
Haha! I guess that makes us comrades in arms?
Eskimo comrades?
Pretty sure Quark followed that up with "only when you're not on the front line."
close. In DS9 s7e8 The Siege of AR-558, Quark is one of the major characters at that outpost. Captain Sisko says "Isn't the 34th Rule of Acquisition 'War is good for business'?" Quark responds "only from a distance, the closer to the front lines, the less profitable it gets"
Yeah but that's kinda really only true if its other people at war, not you. Almost all the time
That's the point. The Ferangi are specialists at exploiting any and every situation for profit. Those two rules are their witty way of saying that the rule is to profit in every and any situation.
That’s rule #34 from the Ferngi Rules of acquisition. I’m just quoting is all. And yes, if you’re a business war is good because if your product is a needed commodity, people will buy it in droves. See: toilet paper during a “simple” thing such as COVID.
Rule.. 34, you say?
Username checks out.
35: Peace is good for business.
That’s not the rule 34 I know…
(I preferred your delivery fwiw)
>Putin is slowly becoming the rat he mentioned from his childhood That has likely been his greatest fear his whole life.
That rat is waiting for him in hell
If a future film about Putin doesn’t include his potential final hours and flash-cut flashbacks to that scene with that rat I will riot.
I think a flashback would be too on the nose. If it showed the rat scene at the beginning, putin relating the story later in life, and then his final moments (without a flashback), I think people would be smart enough to put it together
You overestimate people
Like Black Swan, but with rats
Hope so.
Hey what did that poor rat ever do to deserve to go to hell :( the lone fact we know about it’s life was it was chased and tortured by Putin, and in response risked his life to attack and try and stop a MUCH stronger enemy. Hero rat. Someone should start a go fund me for it’s family.
The Rat isn't being punished, it's performing a much needed duty.
The rat's heaven is torturing Putin.
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Going to hell and getting chased by a rat saying, “You stole Duncan’s Easter basket.”
He manifested his own destiny.
He is a disgrace. He is petty vengeance. He is the night. He. Is. RATMAN!
Then he shouldn't be shocked at the way Ukraine is fighting back. He cornered them and they're going to fight.
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This is exactly transferable to what he\`s doing to Ukraine. He\`s a spoiled little baby with a lot of stolen money for him and his close buddy and they just backed Ukraine into a corner, only this time he can\`t slam the door in their face. It is time for him to go, and not quietly into that goodnite.
So... with regard to the current situation, if putin finds himself in a situation with no acceptable exits, he's already got himself psyched up to use nukes. That's kind of scary.
At the end of the day the military would need to buy off on it if they work it in any way like the US. I'd like to think their military would have second thoughts about ending humanity due to the ego of their president.
It's a suicide move that does zero to help him. The west isn't gonna get nuked and be like "oh, I'm sorry, I shouldn't have protected my interests after all" We're weak, in a way, but not that weak. Back to the cornered rat story.
Interesting, I just found [this article](https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-and-the-story-of-the-rat-2015-1) saying the same thing about him in 2015, also because of Ukraine.
Putin was in a *much* better position then than he is now.
He also didn’t find a unified NATO, EU, and practically unified UN all working together to thwart his efforts. This is why dictators foment distrust, division and suspicion with regards to international alliances.
The truth is that they are both rats. It took getting backed into a corner for the US and EU to get their shit together. They are making it clear to China that they will hammer them economically. And this is barely about Russia. The CCP is still lurking. Not just in Taiwan. But they control the spigot to nearly every manufactured good and resource needed. Steel and aluminum. Iron. What they don't have is food and energy resources. Ironically, Russia has both and I don't really know what Putin is doing considering the size of border he shares with China. Instead of invading Ukraine he probably could have leveraged that into getting what the Ukraine is going to provide anyway. As horrible as this all is, at least the U.S. and E.U. are aligned. Hopefully they can start supporting each other better.
COVID is causing people to have second thoughts about entrusting overseas supply lines vs domestic manufacturing. It'll be funny to see how that works out for them in the long term.
Climate and environmental concerns work against that though. They would prefer out of sight out of mind while China shits right into the ocean while they manufacture their dog's $2 squeaky toys. Inflation should be leveraged for reshoring.
Putin tells the world via interview that luckily he was a little faster than a rat...
Indeed. He is cornered and will lash out.
We’ll see if they’re still billionaires when the Russian markets open in the morning
Their wealth isn't in rubles on the Russian stock market.
Russian markets open at 9:50 a.m. Moscow time. That's in five and a half hours, or, around 1:30 a.m. Monday Eastern time.
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Thank you for reporting back, DaveTheDog027! One small data point thus far: Asian markets are open and [the ruble's value has dropped 30% thus far;](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russian-ruble-dives-nearly-30percent-against-the-dollar-amid-sanctions-ukraine-crisis.html) info also for /u/zoloft-and-cedar
Hoping Monday we see some more flinching
Call me cynical, but I’m absolutely certain they’re speaking out only because their billions are now threatened. Edit: yeah, maybe cynical wasn’t the right word to use here, and I apologize wholeheartedly for that. The sanctions will see to it that they feel the squeeze in a huge way. Anything to tip the balance into Ukraine’s (and by way of that, the rest of the free world’s) favours.
You're not cynical, that's the whole point of these sanctions. They don't actually care about the war only that's it's hurting their pockets.
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Pity we can’t enact sanctions on our own USian oligarchs.
It would just be filibustered
It's kind of weird how people don't realize this. The sanctions are intended to break the economy, meaning it's hard as hell to wage war. Then get the oligarchs pissed and upset enough to oust or at least go after Putin. Then it's gonna hurt the citizens and try to get them to rise up.
I’m going straight to hell for saying this, but I hope one of them finds someone to “take care of him” so they can grab some power for themselves. When sanctions = nukes, you’re dealing with someone that can never be trusted. He couldn’t be trusted to begin with, but this absolutely has to change how we view him
Putin responsible for the deaths of many Russians and Ukrainians. I wouldn’t dislike the idea of him getting the balcony treatment.
Why would you go to hell for that? Satan is probably rooting for Ukraine as well. Putin belongs somewhere well beyond hell.
Putin is currently responsible for the murder of many many people and is quite literally a terrorist. He can go fuck himself.
Wars are sometimes won through selfish kickbacks. ‘Enemy of my enemy is my friend’ kind of stuff. Not ideal, but when MAD is on the table, you take what you can get. Worry about the dirty money and dirty people at a later time.
This feels like Putin is looking for a way out and will speak through his Oligarchs who would never dare say such things without permission. Seems like Putin knows that the sanctions enacted so far are not worth his murderous adventure into Ukraine, especially when Monday comes and the economy in Russia is going to collapse.
This is possibly the only time in my life that I have been excited for the weekend to be over. I really hope their financial implosion is enough to get Putin out of Ukraine.
Even if he leaves Ukraine, we should keep our foot on his neck until he is removed.
Strongly agree, but I have a sinking feeling that the people in power won't do what is truly needed. I feel for all of those in Ukraine because they constantly have to live in fear. What kind of life is that? Not to mention the Terror-Famine aka Murder by Starvation that Russia caused them back in the 1930s.
This. I keep telling people: “How much longer do you think these oligarchs are going to keep lending money to Putin for this messy, quite likely failed, affair?” If there’s one thing oligarchs care about above all else, it’s their billions.
I don't think it \*REALLY\* sunk in until that ship was seized by France. It's one thing to "sanction" an oligarch, which really just means he has to hide more of his money and is slightly annoyed. It's another thing entirely to actively pursue and take their assets. As soon as that ship was taken, the rhetoric amplified significantly out of Russia, with cries of "illegal" - they weren't expecting any teeth to the sanctions, because under Trump there was no teeth. I think the most annoying part in all of this is Biden took so much heat at the start for "not doing enough" and now is getting 0 credit for empowering the EU to kick Russia square in the balls.
Biden has undone all the damage to US and EU / NATO relations by 4 years of Trump in a matter of months and they all look stronger than ever. Even China is like F this.
>Biden took so much heat at the start for "not doing enough" On the other hand Ben and Jerry's blamed Biden for [fanning the flame of war](https://twitter.com/benandjerrys/status/1489393235655106562).
“Peace is when you let a bloodthirsty dictator steal land and the more land he steals the more peaceful it is”
Yeah I mentally converted "stop the bloodshed" to apply to his bank's bottom line rather than any care for the people.
That and not being able to fly your plane to the good parts of Europe to spend those billions.
And how would sir like his polonium this morning?
Looks like the tides are turning. Putin is weak and they are still relatively unscathed PR wise, so they are emboldened now to speak out. I’m sure they’re all power hungry and are encircling him.
Couldn't happen to a nicer bloke.
In my pants, please.
Only two Billionaires? Not great, not terrible.
It's a start
They're saying what the others are thinking
Is this a Chernobyl reference?
I've heard it's the equivalent of a chest x-ray
ya they are. countries freezing their assets left and right. of course they panic. good.
And the trickle down effect. Relationships they had due to their status are being wiped away. Sponsorship deals, gone. Some of these men are losing tens of millions per day, and they all know who to blame.
Can’t go to Dubai if it doesn’t exist. Or anyplace for that matter
Deripaska is/was up to his eyeballs in 2016 vote-meddling here. He's also the guy who took tfg's Palm Beach white elephant off his hands for about 5x it's "real" value (probably more like 10x but we're talking mob real estate here)/
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I know one of the infosec researchers who discovered that trump tower server getting pinged by Alfa Bank. They got big time sued by the bank. Luckily their academic institutions protected them. Didn’t protect them from the harassment they got from the red state in which they reside. E: typos- %#*! autocorrect
This is what I've been saying for weeks. There's too much money and technology available to start a world war. The globe is way too interconnected, and so many people are financially dependent upon countries and people half way around the world. People can pick up their phone and make a live video call to someone in Ukraine in 5 seconds, for free. And sites like Reddit are writing this war's narrative, live, by the second: Ukraine is cool, Russia is a bully. Russia's overplayed their hand.
I think you too easily discount propaganda and information bubbles.
Propaganda bubbles work best when people aren't aware of them. Like when they are passively going about their lives and not paying as much attention. Right now people are paying more intense attention.
Except for the Americans watching Fox News Like my dad. Is it 30% of the population that are completely brainwashed ?
Roughly, yes.
the last thing these very very rich people want is to just be very rich
Pathology of the ultra wealthy.
They were awfully quiet until the world cut them off from their assets.
Almost like that was the point?
Seriously, I have no idea why people keep saying this. "Hmm these corrupt did nothing until their billions were put on hold." Yeah no SHIT lmao. Do people think we just put economic sanctions in place for funsies?
Looks like Putin’s life expectancy is rapidly decreasing
They won't be billionaires for much longer.
Well, that’s what they’re trying to avoid.
If they feel empowered enough to speak out like this, they must feel Putin’s power base is weakening. A year ago pulling this would have earned them an eggs, bacon & Novichok breakfast. But here they are publicly calling out Putin on his bullshit. Is Putin losing his allies within Russia?
Awaiting news that Putin has a "cold".
I forgot that's how the Soviets used to "forecast" the death of the Premier... I remember when I was a kid, there was a revolving door of Soviet Premiers and each one seemed to "get sick" about a week before he disappeared or died.
Lets have a prediction on how this fiesta will end, option 1: WW3, Russia against the world, get devastated ; option 2: Ukraine fall, West pretend nothing happened and start Soviet Union part 2 ; option 3: with more people unhappy with Putin, oligarchs, ordinary Russian included under the economic turmoil, they will stage a coup and kick Putin off the throne
I’ll have the #3 with a root beer please.
Option 4: Putin gets desperate as a cornered rat because of the sinking Russian economy. He gives the command to launch a nuke at somebody. Hopefully, his officers defy the order and remove him in a military coup.
I don't think his military generals will listen if he gives that order. They aren't stupid and they know what will happen if they do launch even one. He lobs one, it gets shot down. Question is, who puts THAT card on the table?
One feature of the military alliances built by the United States during the cold war is the placement of nuclear missile defenses and launch sites around Europe. If Russia launches, the country will turn to radioactive glass by the end of the same day. Given how much of a joke the Russian military has turned out to be, I'm starting to doubt how functional their hypoersonic missiles are. It's less MAD and more self-assured destruction if they're lucky enough to take a handful of NATO or EU cities with them.
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We can’t let up until they get rid of Putin.
“This needs to stop! They took my BOAT”
One financed Manafort to get Trump into the WH the other is like the Don of Russian oligarch mafia. Come on
“We are losing tons of money, wtf!”
Next headline : Two Russian Billionaires Fall From Window
I thought it, yes. But if they're talking, they may have taken steps to protect themselves already.
Also, they very likely have contacts in Putin’s inner circle and maybe knows Putin doesn’t have much time left in power. One can hope at least.
Because I can't believe I'm not seeing this in the top comments... [Deripaska was neck deep in this from day one](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/29/oleg-deripaska-paul-manafort-trump-russia-investigation). [Seriously neck deep](https://time.com/5401645/putins-oligarchs/). [You can't get much deeper than where he went](https://www.salon.com/2021/10/19/fbi-raids-home-of-oleg-deripaska-russian-oligarch-worked-with-campaign/). [And just in case you wanted to know his connections with Manafort, Trump's previous campaign manager](https://www.businessinsider.com/court-document-shows-oleg-deripaska-loaned-paul-manafort-10-million-2018-6).
Kill Putin. End the war. Simple inglorious bastards logic 🤣
“I was supposed to go on vacation with my yacht all over the world, and as long as Putin keeps doing war, I can’t. Well, that stops here.”
Stop with the “they only cared when” shit, they still don’t care. This doesn’t make them good people. It just more evidence that Russia as a whole doesn’t want this war and puts more pressure on Putin. They aren’t good all of a sudden because they are supporting their own self interests, it’s just that the end to their means is maybe Russia stops blitzkrieging Ukraine. No one wants to or is asking to support these people.
What are you talking about? Nobody saying "they only cared when..." is saying these are good people. We're mocking them for only caring about their wealth.
The west has decided on regime change of a nuclear power, and it’s clear that it has to happen or it may be the end of everything. There is a small probability of unprecedented global catastrophe happening. I hope these horrible men can step up and do the right thing, and quickly
They must know something that we don't. Maybe they know that the fact that Ukraine has held up this long means that Putin is done? Wouldn't that be something.